OM CAREERS COMMITTEE

DICK LIDWELL MURRAY 1959-1964 CHAIR OF CAREERS COMMITTEE

Thoughts on how the Covid-19 epidemic is impacting on the Employment Market

Clearly Covid-19 has had a world-wide impact on many facets of everyone’s daily lives. The social impact has been severe with families having to cope with the effects of lockdown: the closure of schools, the restrictions on visiting family and care homes, shopping, and our everyday movements. In addition it has had a severe impact on employment and the economy. The crisis has led to an economic shock that is unprecedented in modern history in its size and speed. In the UK employment fell by at least 1.5 million, equivalent to 5% of all of those in work. This is double the fall in employment in the last recession and five times larger than the previous largest quarterly fall at any point since 1971. Unemployment therefore quickly rose to at least 2.5 million, or around 7.5% of the workforce: a far faster rise than in any of the last three recessions.

Government initiatives have alleviated the adverse effect to a degree, in particular its Job Retention Scheme. This gives grounds for cautious optimism that if the economy can be revived soon, then demand and jobs will return. However, the labour market takes time to rebuild, previously about seven years, so there will inevitably be future disruption. The UK had seen a buoyant employment market in recent years. However it was also a mixed picture with regional differences, slow wage growth and indifferent improvement in living standards, with still some three million out of work, and others in precarious and insecure employment.

Young people are always particularly vulnerable, as are the older who tend to take longer to get back into work, and women who make up the largest proportion of the low paid. These groups also tend to be found in the retail and hospitality sectors which have been severely hit, and the care sector which is most vulnerable to the effects of the virus. One hopes that the Government will recognise these sections of the working population with further initiatives, especially for young people being our future. What will happen to the ‘working from home’ phenomenon? Both employers and employees are making great adjustments with many appreciating the advantages of less commuting, albeit with other pressures building up on home life. The crisis has given rise to examining how we work, why and where, which may produce advantageous long term changes. Much work, but not all, can be completed in a virtual form, but at what price ‘social interaction’ and the adverse effect on the travel and hospitality industries, especially near office locations?

The market for the graduates of 2020 has been problematic with many employers cancelling recruitment or deferring, waiting for the market to turn. Encouragingly many have offered ‘virtual’ work experience and internships. Understandably more graduates are applying for Masters courses to postpone their entry and to gain new skills, but funding can be problematic and they are seeking out traditional not virtual teaching.

Indeed there have been disputes over fee levels failing to take account of the change from face to face to virtual teaching. The fall in employment in the retail and hospitality could reduce the opportunities for part time employment for students, in particular women and students from disadvantaged backgrounds with adverse consequences for social mobility.

However graduates have generally been faring better within the employment market than many other groups.

With acknowledgement to the Institute for Employment Studies research, and to Prospects ‘Luminate’ Graduate Employment Market report.