San Francisco - January 2026.pdf

San Francisco Real Estate

January 2026 Report

Photo by Craig Howell, used under the Creative Commons License

In 2025, Bay Area real estate markets started the year seeing strong buyer demand, but had the wind taken out of their sails by the political/economic uncertainty that soared in early spring. Then, in midlate summer, stock markets rebounded to hit new highs, and interest rates began a sustained decline, initiating a shift in the psychology of buyers and sellers that is still developing. However, in San Francisco, the market has been supercharged by its AI startup boom, a dynamic that dramatically accelerated this past fall. After years of social, economic and demographic challenges, the city has shifted back from being the weakest market in the Bay Area to the strongest. Stupendous amounts of new wealth are being created, and market conditions may well exceed those last seen in the IPO boom of 2019. Demand is far outpacing the supply of homes for sale, and we expect the city’s median house sales price will reach a new high in 2026. The luxury home market is particularly competitive, and in our most expensive district – which includes Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina – median house and condo prices already hit new peaks in 2025. The condo market, though not as heated as the house market, has begun a substantial recovery fueled by high- tech workers flocking to the city. As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets are at or close to all-time peaks.

Early in the new year, it is common for buyers, re-energized to move forward with major life decisions, to jump back into the market faster than sellers list their homes for sale. This disparity of increasing demand versus a low supply of new listings usually runs through the spring, typically making these months the most heated selling season of the year. Last year, this was upended by the tariff shock.

Barring new, unexpected economic alarms, we expect this spring to very heated indeed. NOTE: This report includes an image link to our comprehensive review of district and neighborhood values and market dynamics.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.

The Q4 2025 median house sales price surged to its highest quarterly price since Q2 2022. It was up 12% from Q4 2024.

San Francisco House Price Trends Median House Sales Prices since 2012, by Quarter Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less, and can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.

Q2 2021

Q2 2019

Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2, though that did not occur in 2025 due to the AI startup boom.

Q2 2022 Peak

Q2 2020

$2,000,000

Q2 2023

Q2 2024

Q4 2025

$1,800,000

$1,600,000

Pandemic hits

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.

$1,650,000 $1,700,000 $1,564,000 Q3 2024$1,574,000 Q1 2023$1,525,000 $1,600,000 $1,600,000 Q1 2025$1,622,500 Q3 2023$1,545,000 $1,750,000 $1,550,000 Q3 2025$1,625,000 Q1 2024$1,650,000 $1,795,000

Q32022

$1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,640,000 Q1 2021$1,650,000 Q3 2019$1,550,000 $1,880,000 $1,505,000 Q3 2021$1,807,500 Q1 2020$1,550,000 $1,820,000 $1,660,000 Q1 2022$1,859,000 Q3 2020$1,625,000 $2,000,000

Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.

Q12019

$1,225,000 $1,440,000 $1,245,000 Q3 2017$1,362,500 Q1 2016$1,308,500 $1,500,000 $1,350,000 Q1 2018$1,610,000 Q3 2016$1,280,000 $1,620,000 $1,350,000 Q3 2018$1,550,000 Q1 2017$1,300,000 $1,500,000

Q32015

$666,000 $770,000 Q3 2014$1,036,500 Q3 2012$750,000 $1,121,000$935,000 $829,400 Q1 2014$968,000 Q1 2013$809,000 Q1 2015$1,112,500 $975,000 $1,325,000 $1,100,000 Q3 2013$900,000

Q1 2012

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

Median House Sales Price by Year, 1993 – Present* 2021

The median house sales price in 2025

$1,800,000 roHse oaubosuet M4.6e% dfiraomn S20a2l4e. sP rPicr

appreciation has been accelerating $1,600,000

since the fall selling season began.

Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broadmarket trends. Theycan be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. San Francisco contains neighborhoods of widely varying values.

$1,400,000 $1,200,000 Interest rates jump ▲ $1,000,000

2007

$800,000 Recovery, high-tech & pandemic booms

Mid-90’s recovery & dotcom boom

$600,000

Loan standards Market crash collapse & recession

*Per CA. Association of Realtors annual historical survey for existing single-family dwellings. 2025 price based on sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early Jan. 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

Various sources of data may calculate median sales prices slightly differently.

2025$1,700,000

2024$1,625,000

$1,800,000 2023$1,562,500

$1,825,000

$1,600,000 2022 $1,650,000

$1,425,000 2020 $1,600,000 2021

$1,250,000 2018 $1,340,000 2019

$400,000 $930,777 2016 $1,084,058 2017

1995 $261,600 1996 $259,560 1997 $268,635 1998 $276,782 1999 $305,851 2000 $356,859 2001 $416,244 2002 $536,058 2003 $575,353 2004 $619,274 2005 $660,036 2006 $758,589 2007 $871,042 2008 $883,056 2009 $918,544 2010 $847,913 2011 $744,804 2012 $748,855 2013 $699,397 2014 $774,908 2015

Early 90’s recession after late 80’s boom

1994

1993

San Francisco Median House Sales Prices

$200,000 $0

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990 Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price* 2000 29%

30%

There was a brief decline after the dotcom bubble popped that does not show up in calendar-year annual data.

▼

25%

20%

High-tech boom Rebound from 16% 15% 15%15% foreclosure prices ▼►

20% 17%17% 15% 10% 5%

12%

11%

11% 7%8%

11% 7%

2007 4% Foreclosure crisis 1%

7%

Early 1990’s 3%3% 2% recession

Pandemic boom

6% 0%

4%5%

3%

1%

-5% -10% -15% -20%

-2%-3% -4%-1%

Dotcom boom

Subprime bubble -8%

Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

-1%

-7%

-12%

*Sales reported to MLS: median existing house sales price appreciation rates, per CA Association of Realtors annual historical survey. 2025 an estimate based on sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early Jan. 2026. Percentage changes rounded to nearest full percentage point. All numbers approximate, may contain errors, subject to revision, and may change with late-reported sales.

-13%

Interest rates jump ▲

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

0%

San Francisco House Prices MedianHOUSESalesPrices–Selected Neighborhoods* Presidio Heights Pacific Heights Cow Hollow Sea Cliff Lake Street/Jordan Park St. Francis Wood Marina Russian Hill Cole Vly-Ashbury Hghts.

Lower Pacific Heights West Portal Noe Valley Inner Richmond Eureka Valley Lone Mountain Diamond Heights Forest Hill Mt. Davidson Mnr. Corona Heights Ingleside Terrace Golden Gate Heights Inner Parkside Inner Sunset Glen Park Central Richmond Forest Hill Ext.

$8,450,000 $7,250,000 $6,500,000 $4,600,000 $4,425,000 $3,900,000 $3,805,000 $3,700,000 $3,500,000 $3,400,000 $2,800,000 $2,717,500 $2,700,000 $2,620,000 $2,320,000 $2,300,000 $2,246,000 $2,131,000 $2,126,000 $2,120,000 $2,040,000 $2,032,500 $2,030,000 $2,025,000 $1,925,000 $1,912,500

12 Months Sales* House Market Dynamics

High Sale: $19,000,000 High Sale: $42,000,000 (offMLS); $26,500,000 (MLS) High Sale: $16,800,000 High Sale: $30,000,000 (off-MLS); $18,100,000 (MLS) High Sale: $7,500,000 High Sale: $7,250,000 High Sale: $8,300,000 High Sale: $9,500,000 High Sale: $6,250,000 High Sale: $6,000,000 This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods, w/high sales prices of $5 million+* High Sale: $9,600,000 High Sale: $6,550,000

High Sale: $5,500,000

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general measurement of value that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and how it applies to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

architectural style, quality of construction, square footage, condition, amenities, light, views, privacy, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional the parking, quality of location within neighborhood, and so on.

Many factors affect home values:

High Sale: $12,487,000

*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through mid-December 2025. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.

Pandemic hits

Median Condo Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter

Seasonal fluctuationsarecommon. Itisnot unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2.

Different city districts have seen varying median price trends.

Q2 2015

$1,225,000 Q3 2025$1,100,000 $1,175,000

$1,150,000 Q1 2021$1,177,500 $1,247,500 Q3 2021$1,208,000 $1,279,000 Q1 2022$1,210,000 $1,300,000

Q32020 $1,225,500

Q3 2022$1,147,500 $1,115,000 Q1 2023$1,113,000 $1,150,000 Q3 2023$1,100,000 $1,080,000 Q1 2024$1,155,000 $1,115,000 Q3 2024$1,150,000 $1,125,000 Q1 2025$1,050,000

51,000 $1,217,500

0$1,219,000

Q1 2016$1,099,000 $1,130,000 Q3 2016$1,055,000 $1,075,000 Q1 2017$1,138,000 $1,120,000 Q3 2017$1,175,000 $1,178,000 Q1 2018$1,120,000 $1,206,000 Q3 2018$1,150,000 $1,200,000 Q1 2019$1,168,168 $1,235,000 Q3 2019$1,235,500

$1,105,000

Q1 2012$646,000 $724,000 Q3 2012$750,000 $775,000 Q1 2013$805,000 $850,000 Q3 2013$840,000 1 2015$1,079,500 15$1,047,500 $830,000 Q1 2014$950,000 $1,125,000 $949,500 Q3 2014$950,000 $995,000

San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation The Q4 2025 median condo sales rebounded from Q3 and was up about 4.5% year over year.

Q2 2022 Q2 2025

Q2 2023 $1,300,000

$1,200,000

$1,100,000

$1,000,000

$900,000

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

San Francisco Median Condo Prices MedianCondoSalesPricebyYear,1993–Present* The2025median condo sales priceroseabout1.3%from2024.

Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The city contains condo projects and neighborhoods of widely varying values and appreciation trends.

2021 $1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000

2007

$800,000 $700,000

Mid-90’s recovery & dotcom boom

$600,000

Recovery, high-tech& pandemic booms

Early 90’s recession after late 80’s boom

$500,000 $400,000

Loan standards Market crash collapse & recession

$300,000

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early January 2026. Many new-project condo sales are not reported to MLS. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

2025$1,145,000

2024$1,130,000

2023$1,121,500

2022$1,200,000

2021$1,225,000

2020$1,191,000

2019$1,205,000

2018$1,180,000

2017$1,125,000

2016$1,095,000

2015$1,075,000

2014$947,000

2013$820,000

2012$710,000

2011$637,000

2010$669,000

2009$670,000

2008$765,000

2007$770,000

2006$731,000

2005$726,000

2004$625,000

2003$535,000

2002$525,000

2001$501,000

2000$541,000

1999$401,000

1998$339,000

1997$284,000

1996$262,000

1995$250,000

1994$255,000

1993$243,000

$200,000 $100,000 $-

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990 Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median CONDO Sales Price* New condos have been built in their tens of thousands over the period illustrated, constantly changing the mix of units sold, so year-over-year comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples. Percentages rounded to nearest full percentage point.

2000 35%

30%

19%18%

Recovery & high-tech boom 17%16%

▲

Subprime bubble

-1%

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2016

2015

2014

2013

2018

-1%

-5%

-2% -9%

-13%

Interest rates jump ▲

-20% *Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per SFARMLS statistics or Infosparks. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

2025

1%1%

0% 2012

2010

Pandemic 3% 2%

2024

5% 5%

0% 2009

2006

2005

1% 2004

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

Dotcom -7% boom Dotcom bubble pops

2003

2%

0…

1995

-10%

5%

2008

5%

2007 5% Foreclosure crisis

2017

8%

10%

0%

15%14%15%15%

2007

20%

2011

40%

San Francisco Condo/Co-op Prices Median CONDO Sales Prices– Selected Neighborhoods* Presidio Heights Marina Lone Mountain Cow Hollow Pacific Heights Lake St./Jordan Park Eureka Valley Noe Valley Inner/Central Richmond Russian Hill Inner Sunset Cole Vly-Ashbury Heights Duboce Triangle NoPa Alamo Square Nob Hill Hayes Valley South Beach Dogpatch Mission Bay Potrero Hill Inner Mission SoMa Van Ness/Civic Center Hunter's Point

$2,500,000 $1,797,500 $1,792,000 $1,762,500 $1,721,500 $1,662,500 $1,531,500 $1,500,000 $1,435,000 $1,350,000 $1,342,500 $1,340,500 $1,340,000 $1,325,000 $1,292,500 $1,246,000 $1,200,000 $1,160,000 $1,100,000 $1,061,500 $1,050,000 $915,000 $725,000 $725,000 $580,000

12 Months Sales* Condo Market Dynamics

High Sale: $4,995,000 High Sale: $4,300,500 High Sale: $4,425,000 High Sale: $24,000,000 (co-op), $9,990,000 (condo) High Sale: $3,750,000 High Sale: $3,100,000 High Sale: $3,300,000 High Sale: $8,000,000 (co-op), $4,800,000 (condo)

High Sale: $7,250,000

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Many factors affect condo prices: square footage, architectural style, views, quality of construction, the floor the unit is on, condition, HOA amenities and cost, deeded outdoor space, parking, and so on.

High Sale: $11,250,000

High Sale: $3,425,000 High Sale: $3,850,000

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods.

With high sales of $3 million+*

*12 months condo sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through mid-December 2025. Data from sources deemed reliable butmaycontainerrorsandsubjectto revision.All numbersapproximateandmaychangewith late-reportedsales.

San Francisco Median $/Sq.Ft. Values Median Home Values by Year since 2005* House $/Sq.Ft.

Median values are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Values vary widely across submarkets within the county.

Condo $/Sq.Ft. $1,100 $1,000

Median $/sq.ft. values increased in 2025 for houses and slightly for condos.

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300

*Per NorCal MLS Alliance Infosparks calculations, for sales reported to MLS. Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

$1,022 $1,008

$100 $-

2025

$999 2024 $1,004

$965 $996

2023

$1,067 2022 $1,089

$1,060 2021 $1,100

$979 $1,078

2020

$964 2019 $1,143

$942 $1,114

2018

$885 2017 $1,047

$812 $1,015

2016

$762 2015 $1,012

$676 $909

2014

$588 $796

2013

$487 $658

2012

$453 $593

2011

$479 $599

2010

$495 $596

2009

$544 $689

2008

$600 $706

2007

$591 $669

2006

2005

$595 $684

$200

A city with a body of water Description automatically generated

As is the normal seasonal trend, the number of listings for sale on January 1st fell to its annual low count – and by far its lowest count in many years. Inventory should start to rapidly increase as the new year’s market wakes up.

1,114

1,200

915 942 986 1,034

717

1,310

1,167

1,289

1,431 1,035

897 1,344

1,178 1,0991,110 1,101 1,205 1,261

600

446

400

8/1/25 9/1/25 10/1/25 11/1/25 7/1/25 12/1/25 1/1/26

200

/1/25 4/1/25

* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance.

Does not include new-project condosnot listedonMLS. Data fromsourcesdeemedreliablebutmaycontain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.

6/1/25

8/1/24 9/1/24 10/1/24 11/1/24 12/1/24 1/1/25 2/1/25 3/1/25

Updated January 1, 2026

7/1/24

11/1/23 12/1/23 1/1/24 /1/24 5/1/24 2/1/24 10/1/23 9/1/23 3/1/24 4/1/24

8/1/23

12/1/22 1/1/23 2/1/23 10/1/22 /1/23 6/1/23 3/1/23 11/1/22 4/1/23 5/1/23

9/1/22

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

1,000

800

611

1,027 1,090

1,400

920

752 1,134

1,429 1,471 1,142

1,018 1,082 1,1431,144 1,223 1,135

898

1,185 752

1,252 1,310 1,362 1,253 1,400

1,045 1,121

1,536 1,558

st Active&Coming-SoonListingson1of Month*

3/1/22 4/1/22 8/1/22 5/1/22 2/1/22 6/1/22 7/1/22

855

San Francisco Homes Market

0

San Francisco: Annual New-Listing Volume NumberofNewListingsComingonMarketbyYear,since 2018* 8646 7946

7688

The number of new listings in 2025 fell about 2.5% from 2024.

8,000

7,000

6186

5924

5,996

Pandemic market

5586

5,838

6,000

5,000 Interest rates soar

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

*Per Realtor.com Research, listings posted to site as entered into MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Will not include new-project condos not posted to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported activity.

2024

2025

Monthly Home Sales Volume* San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality June 2021

Fall 2021

Spring 2022

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The number of sales in December 2025 fell from November but was 22% to 23% higher year over year. January sales volume typically hits the low count of the year, reflecting the holiday slowdown in December and early January.

800 700 Oct. 2025

Spring 2024

Spring 2023

Oct. 2024

Spring 2025

500 400

January

January

January

Oct. 2023 January

January

Pandemic boom

600

300 200 100

▲ Interest rates changes impact the market

*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.

Nov-25

Sep-25

Jul-25

May-25

Mar-25

Jan-25

Nov-24

Sep-24

Jul-24

May-24

Mar-24

Jan-24

Nov-23

Sep-23

Jul-23

May-23

Mar-23

Jan-23

Nov-22

Sep-22

Jul-22

May-22

Mar-22

Jan-22

Nov-21

Sep-21

Jul-21

May-21

Mar-21

Jan-21

Updated through December 2025

0

2025 sales volume increased about 10% from 2024 but remained low by historical standards.

Sales are being constrained by low inventory.

San Francisco Annual Sales Volume Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*

8,000

7663 number of listings availablAe tno npuurcahal sSe,a wlheicsnda h are deeply

Sales volume is affected by both buyer dema 7108

impacted by positive and negative economic conditions.

6398 6141

6326 5852

5802 5361 4866

Subprime bubble

7,000

5489 5331

5552 5710

6,000

5645

5474 5370

5036

4975 4645

Pandemic market

Market recovery, high-tech/IPO boom

5,000

4579 4113

4,000 Interest rates soar

Foreclosure crisis & great recession

3,000

2,000

1,000

*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations.

Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. In San Francisco, many new-project condo sales are not reported.

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

0

San Francisco Annual Sales - $5,000,000+ Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005* Sales: $5 Million+

199

Sales: $10 Million+

200

Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the numberof listings available to purchase, and appreciationtrends– all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).

62

Pandemic market

84

80

78

75

142 120

2025 home sales of $5 million+ rose approximately 23% from 2024. Luxury sales accelerated in the fall selling season due to the AI startup boom.

79

175 AI boom

71

125

114

100

90

75

Interest rates soar

62

47 Market recovery and high-tech boom

26

28

14

13

10

27 25 18

16 15

14

11

*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks, plus known off-MLS sales. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS.

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

0 2015

2014

7

2016

8 2013

2011

2010

9

3

2

2012

3 2009

3 2008

2007

2006

2005

7

6

5

16

11

2020

24

2019

33

27

2018

28

50

Great recession

2017

37

150

San Francisco Residential Market 2025 Home Sales by Price Segment* $5,000,000+

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

3% 3%

.6% of sales were for $10 million+

5%

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

Under $1,000,000

15%

29%

$2,000,000 – $2,999,999

82% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos, co-ops and TICs.

$1,500,000 - $1,999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

18%

54% of sales of $1m - $1,499,999 were condos, co-ops and TICs.

27%

*2025 sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by late December 2025. Not all sales are reported to MLS, especially many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.

Sales by Property Type* • House 46% Condo 46% • TIC 6.5% Co-op 1.5% • Townhouse less than 1% • •

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers SanFrancisco: AbsorptionRatebyMonth Fall 2025

Spring 2022 Spring 2023 October

Spring 2024

December

Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. The SF market shifted dramatically in fall 2025, and the December 2025 reading was double the percentages in December 2024, 2023, and 2022.

25%

Spring 2025 October

20%

December

December

October December

30%

15%

10%

Updated through December 2025

23 23May-23 23

*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not all new-condo project activity is reported to MLS. Last month’s data estimated using available data and may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Dec-25

Oct-24

0% Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25

24 Jun-24 Jul-24 24

Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24

Sep-23

Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23

Jul-22

May-22 Apr-22 Jun-22

Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25

5%

San Francisco – Speed of Sale AverageDaysonMarket,AnnualReadings by Year, since 2005* 90

85

83

Condo Sales

79

69 63

62 65 50

63

58 48

House Sales

This statistic is an indicator of the strength of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, measuring – for homes sold – the average time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance. On average, houses have been selling much faster than 60 condos.

80 70 58

59

60

57 Great recession

50

46

47

41

40

44

40

37

35

44

39

40

35

34

37

36

44

35

34 30

32

31

29 25

28 24

30 30

28

25

20

Market recovery & high-tech/IPO boom

10

Pandemic market

*Average cumulative days on market: Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

0

San Francisco – Overbidding Asking Price PercentageofSalesOverListPrice,AnnualReadings, since 2005* 81%

House Sales

Condo Sales

80%

82%

76%

74%

79% 79% 75%

69%

58% 59%

63%

60% 50%

48%

50%

45%

42% 42%

42%

39%

80% 70%

60% 59%

48% 44%

75% 72%

66%

59%

57%

77%

70%

66% 61%

79%

77%

Market recovery and high-tech/IPO boom

Subprime bubble

41% 36% 40% 33% 33%

Pandemic market

28%

30%

23% 23% 19%

20%

Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. SF overbidding percentages for houses have been much higher than those for condos.

Foreclosure crisis & great recession

10%

*Sales over final list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

0%

San Francisco: Overbidding & Underbidding SalesPricetoListPricePercentage,AnnualReadings,since 2005* 100% =an averagesales price atthe original asking price; 104% =anaverage sales price4% above asking; 98% = an average sales price 2% below asking.

115% Houses typically see much higher overbidding percentages than condos.

109%

115%

115%

Condo Sales

114% 114%

115% 113%

112%

112% 111% 109%

107% 105%

110% 110%

108% 107%

104%

103%

102% 102%

House Sales

104%

105%

106%

106%

105%

103%

105% 102%

100%

100% 100% 98% 98%98%

99%

98% 97% 96% 95%

99%

100%

97%

Market recovery and high-tech/IPO boom

94%

100%

95%

Pandemic market

Foreclosure crisis & great recession

90%

*The ratio of sales price to the original list price: sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Percentages rounded. All numbers approximate and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

85%

Annual Number of Price Reductions SanFranciscoMarketDynamics,byYearsince2017* 2764

2688

Pandemic hits

San Francisco is the only Bay Area county that had a decline in the number of price reductions in 2025.

Interest rates soar

2,500

2336 2006

1802

2,000

1824

High-tech boom

1366

1804

1796

Historic lows in interest rates

AI startup boom

IPO boom

1,500

1,000

500

The number of price reductions is affected by changes in economic conditions, the strength of buyer demand, seller expectations, and the number of active listings on the market.

0

2017

2018

2019

*Per Realtor.com Research,

2020

2021

2022

listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

2023

2024

2025

Bay Area Median House Values by County 2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count* 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Houses County

How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

5+ Bedroom, 4+ Bath Houses, 3000+ sq.ft.

In alphabeticalorder

Median Sales Price

Median Square Footage

Median Dollar per Square Foot

Median Sales Price

Alameda County

$1,626,500

2195 sq.ft.

$739/sq.ft.

$2,750,000

Contra Costa

$1,075,000

2338 sq.ft.

$478/sq.ft.

$2,650,000

Marin County

$1,905,000

2502 sq.ft.

$793/sq.ft.

$3,772,500

Monterey County

$1,092,500

2298 sq.ft.

$471/sq.ft.

$3,850,000

Napa County

$1,110,000

2307 sq.ft.

$511/sq.ft.

$4,000,000

San Francisco

$2,200,000

2276 sq.ft.

$974/sq.ft.

$5,500,000

San Mateo County

$2,622,500

2310 sq.ft.

$1103/sq.ft.

$6,050,000

Santa Clara County

$2,210,000

2204 sq.ft.

$1023/sq.ft.

$4,620,000

Santa Cruz County

$1,550,000

2182 sq.ft.

$677/sq.ft.

$2,275,000

Solano County

$700,500

2216 sq.ft.

$317/sq.ft.

$966,000

Sonoma County

$920,000

2268 sq.ft.

$423/sq.ft.

$2,055,000

Median Sq.Ft./ Median Lot Size 3869 sq.ft. .25 acre 3983 sq.ft. .37 acre 4145 sq.ft. .45 acre 5001 sq.ft.

1.6 acres 4456 sq.ft. .54 acre 4270 sq.ft. .07 acre 4545 sq.ft. .51 acre 3991 sq.ft. .31 acre 4122 sq.ft.

1.13 acres 3680 sq.ft. .21 acre 3964 sq.ft. .79 acre

*Sales reported toNorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Counties with low sales volumes, such as Napa, can see large fluctuations in values. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

Median Dollar per Square Foot $694/sq.ft. $642/sq.ft.

$939/sq.ft. $719/sq.ft. $941/sq.ft. $1232/sq.ft. $1375/sq.ft. $1158/sq.ft. $616/sq.ft. $279/sq.ft. $513/sq.ft.

Bay Area Median House Values by County 2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count* 2 Bedroom, 1-2 Bath Houses County

Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic.

3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Houses

In alphabeticalorder

Median Sales Price

Median Square Footage

MedianDollar per Square Foot

Median Sales Price

Median Square Footage

Median Dollar per Square Foot

Alameda County

$785,000

1067 sq.ft.

$735/sq.ft.

$1,125,000

1428 sq.ft.

$784/sq.ft.

$575,000

1019 sq.ft.

$561/sq.ft.

$725,000

1444 sq.ft.

$528/sq.ft.

$1,225,000

1226 sq.ft.

$976/sq.ft.

$1,370,000

1600 sq.ft.

$859/sq.ft.

$780,000

1016 sq.ft.

$763/sq.ft.

$825,000

1467 sq.ft.

$573/sq.ft.

$787,000

1060 sq.ft.

$775/sq.ft.

$820,000

1447 sq.ft.

$597/sq.ft.

$1,318,000

1188 sq.ft.

$1083/sq.ft.

$1,587,000

1575 sq.ft.

$1005/sq.ft.

$1,380,000

1080 sq.ft.

$1292/sq.ft.

$1,700,000

1510 sq.ft.

$1153/sq.ft.

$1,250,000

1058 sq.ft.

$1197/sq.ft.

$1,725,000

1383 sq.ft.

$1249/sq.ft.

$855,000

1039 sq.ft.

$792/sq.ft.

$1,255,000

1600 sq.ft.

$758/sq.ft.

$445,000

1216 sq.ft.

$350/sq.ft.

$549,000

1429 sq.ft.

$388/sq.ft.

$695,000

1203 sq.ft.

$577/sq.ft.

$799,000

1518 sq.ft.

$532/sq.ft.

Contra Costa Marin County Monterey County Napa County San Francisco San Mateo County Santa Clara County Santa Cruz County Solano County Sonoma County

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values 2025 Sales By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count* 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Condos

County

How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

3 Bedroom, 2-3 Bath Townhouses

In alphabeticalorder

Median Sales Price

Median Square Footage

Median Dollar per Square Foot

Median Sales Price

Median Square Footage

MedianDollar per Square Foot

Alameda County

$600,000

1078 sq.ft.

$558/sq.ft.

$887,000

1519 sq.ft.

$608/sq.ft.

Contra Costa

$549,500

1134 sq.ft.

$497/sq.ft.

$789,000

1555 sq.ft.

$524/sq.ft.

Marin County

$705,000

1118 sq.ft.

$661/sq.ft.

$891,000

1598 sq.ft.

$561/sq.ft.

Monterey County

$840,000

1229 sq.ft.

$642/sq.ft.

$1,010,000

1733 sq.ft.

$580/sq.ft.

Napa County

$967,500

1052 sq.ft.

$929/sq.ft.

Too few sales

San Francisco

$1,258,000

1191 sq.ft.

$1051/sq.ft.

Too few sales

San Mateo County

$865,500

1185 sq.ft.

$742/sq.ft.

$1,485,000

1625 sq.ft.

$887/sq.ft.

Santa Clara County

$780,000

1140 sq.ft.

$694/sq.ft.

$1,334,000

1571 sq.ft.

$841/sq.ft.

Santa Cruz County

$772,500

1141 sq.ft.

$652/sq.ft.

$976,000

1531 sq.ft.

$635/sq.ft.

Solano County

$360,000

1036 sq.ft.

$340/sq.ft.

$500,000

1480 sq.ft.

$319/sq.ft.

Sonoma County

$417,000

1065 sq.ft.

$398/sq.ft.

$535,000

1324 sq.ft.

$386/sq.ft.

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

Annual Median House Sales Prices

Median sales price can be affected by factors besides changes in fair market value.

byBayAreaCounty+Sacramento,2012–2025* 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 2,000,000

Due to specific market conditions and economic factors – such as the pandemic boom, interest rate changes, stock markets, the AI boom – appreciation rates between counties vary year-to-year, but over the longer term, county home prices throughout the region tend to move roughly in parallel.

1,750,000

1,500,000

Home values vary widely across submarkets within the county markets.

1,250,000

1,000,000

750,000

500,000

250,000

0

Sacto

Solano

Sonoma

Contra Monterey Costa

Napa

Alameda

Santa Cruz

Marin

San Francisco

*Sales reported to MLS, per the CA Association of Realtors, or NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Different data sources sometimes calculate median house sales prices using varying methodologies.

Santa Clara

San Mateo

Mortgage Interest Rates in 2025 – 2026 YTD 30-YearConformingFixed-RateLoans,WeeklyAverageReadings* 7.0

Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on January 8, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loaninterest rate was 6.16%, very close to its 2-year low.

Percentage InterestRate

6.8

6.6

6.4

6.2 Jan. 2025

Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.

*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.

Jan-26

Dec-25

Dec-25

Nov-25

Nov-25

Oct-25

Oct-25

Sep-25

Sep-25

Aug-25

Aug-25

Jul-25

Jul-25

Jul-25

Jun-25

Jun-25

May-25

May-25

Apr-25

Apr-25

Mar-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Feb-25

Jan-25

Jan-25

Jan-25

6.0

Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026 YTD Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25

10/29/25 ▼

25%

Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25 20%

S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25 15% 10%

Updatedthrough 1/7/26 5%

-10%

Tariff shock ► -15% -20%

Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.

-25% Data per MarketWatch.com. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate. Financial markets can be prone to significant volatility even on a short-term basis.

01-Jan-26

01-Dec-25

01-Nov-25

01-Oct-25

01-Sep-25

01-Aug-25

01-Jul-25

01-Jun-25

01-May-25

01-Apr-25

01-Mar-25

01-Feb-25

-5%

01-Jan-25

0%

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

By Month since January 2000 April 2025

450

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in November 2025 ticked up slightly. It has plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remains elevated by long-term norms.

400

Tariff shock ► Pandemic hits

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

350

300

250 Dec. 2025

Dotcom crash & 9/11

200

150 Subprime crash & great recession

100

2025

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.

Data from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.

2019

Updated through December 2025

50

A satellite image of a bay AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data.

Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.