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Trends Shaping Canada’s Future Food Picture
TRENDS SHAPING
CANADA’S FUTURE FOOD PICTURE
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BY COURTNEY DENARD
From consumer stockpiling to supply chain disruptions to a burgeoning interest in local food, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on food trends over the past two years.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director, Agri-Food Analytics Lab, Dalhousie University
All of these factors, and more, are explored in the 2022 edition of Canada’s Food Price Report that was released this past December. Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph publish the report annually and this year the University of Saskatchewan, along with the University of British Columbia, were added to the research team to strengthen the national scope and regional expertise of the report. According to the project’s lead, Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, there is always a lot to talk about concerning Canada’s food picture, including where it’s been, where it’s going in the year ahead and what the future holds in general. Before COVID-19, Charlebois said Canada’s food landscape was actually quite smooth with a market that was a lot more predictable than it is today. “When COVID hit, everyone lost their food bearings,” Charlebois said. “It didn’t matter where you were in the supply chain, everyone was facing brand new rules, rules that didn’t exist before.”
As the pandemic advanced, more and more people began working from home and cooking from home. Suddenly, consumers were buying everything online including food and that changed the entire industry in an instant. Issues around labour, climate change, and logistics in the supply chain quickly became headline news; a trend that Charlebois said won’t be changing any time soon. Taking a look at the research specifically, the latest food price report found that consumers’ food choices in 2021 were motivated by health and environmental sustainability. “The new generation, the Millennials and Gen Z, for them it’s all about healthy living,” Charlebois said, and with that comes a greater desire for transparency and ethical practices around food products. The research also showed that consumers continued to support local food in 2021, and many plan to maintain their COVID-19 shopping habits (like buying online) in the future.
When it comes to the price of food in Canada, the total annual expenditure for a family of four was $13,801 in 2021. Meanwhile, the research showed that the overall price of food in Canada increased by 3% to 5% during that same time
Projections for 2022, indicate that a family of four will spend $14,767 on food this year, while the price of food will go up 5% to 7% overall. This is the highest predicted increase in food prices since the inception of the report 12 years ago. “It’s important for consumers to understand that food prices have been going up for some time, and there’s no turning back,” Charlebois said. Fruits and vegetables as individual categories are predicted to increase by 3% to 5% and 5% to 7% respectively. Year-over-year
predictions on the fruit and vegetable sector are tricky, according to Charlebois, and it’s difficult to determine why this category fluctuates the way it does. “Veggies are tough. You never know what’s going to happen with weather, demand, the dollar or domestic production,” he said. In times when demand for local fruit and vegetables does go up, Charlebois said Ontario growers are sitting on a big opportunity to promote their products, and not just at a provincial level but nationally, as well.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2022 by the Numbers
X Overall food prices will increase 5% to 7% in 2022.
X Dairy and restaurants will see the biggest increase at 6% to 8%.
X Bakery and vegetables will see an increase of 5% to 7%.
X A family of four will pay $14,767 for food this year, an increase of $966 from 2021.
X Ontario is just one of the provinces that will see price increases higher than the national average.
X The 2022 forecast predicts the highest increase in both percentage and dollars in 12 years.
Charlebois suggested that farmers aim to become more intertwined with the market and develop stronger relationships with processors to reenergize the sector at this time.
Consumers are impacted in many different ways by food trends, Charlebois said. They will listen to media or influencers or they’ll hear different things when they are out living their lives. “And this is what they are making their food choices based off of.”
Growers don’t need to know every single food trend that comes and goes, but Charlebois said they should be at least listening and talking about it with others in their industry. Staying informed and understanding what’s going on will give growers a leg up. Canada’s Food Price Report 2022 is available for download at www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/ canada-s-food-price-report-2022.html.
