OECD Economic Surveys: Colombia 2019 - Presentation

OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: COLOMBIA 2019

Towards a more prosperous and inclusive Colombia Bogotรก, 24 October 2019 http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/colombia-economic-snapshot/

OECD Economics OECD

Key Messages • Strengthening the solid macroeconomic policy framework is key to setting the basis for higher productivity and inclusiveness.

• Boosting the stagnant productivity, via greater competition and openness to trade, will bring stronger and more inclusive growth. • Reducing informality and boosting job-quality would extend the benefits of growth to all Colombians.

2

Growth has been resilient GDP growth

Y-o-y , % changes 7

COL

LAC

OECD

Y-o-y , % changes 7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Note: Data show year-on-year percentage changes. Base year of the underlying data series is 2015. LAC refers to the unweighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico.

Source: OECD Analytical database.

-1

3

Growth will remain robust % change

2018

2019

2020

2.6

3.4

3.5

Private consumption

3.6

4.7

3.9

Government consumption

5.6

2.9

3.5

Gross fixed capital formation

1.5

4.6

5.3

Exports of goods and services

3.9

4.0

4.0

Imports of goods and services

7.9

8.8

5.5

Consumer price index

3.2

3.5

3.6

Current account balance (% GDP)

-4.0

-4.2

-4.2

Gross domestic product (GDP)

Source: OECD. 4

7 million fewer people are living in poverty % of the population 45

Poverty rate

40

% of the population 45

Extreme poverty rate

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

Source: DANE. 5

Inequality remains high Gini coefficient after taxes and transfers, 2018 or latest year available Gini coefficient 0.7

Gini coefficient 0.7 0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0

SVK SVN CZE ISL NOR DNK FIN BEL SWE AUT POL NLD HUN FRA DEU CHE IRL LUX CAN EST ITA AUS PRT GRC JPN ESP ISR LVA NZL GBR KOR RUS LTU USA TUR CHL MEX BRA CRI IND CHN COL ZAF

0.6

0

Source: DANE; OECD. 6

Progress towards higher living standards has deteriorated GDP per capita relative to the OECD GDP per capita, % % 34

% 34

33

33

32

32

31

31

30

30

29

29

28

28

27

27

26

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

26

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.

7

The macroeconomic framework is solid, but could be strengthened

8

Inflation is within the target % 10

Headline inflation

9

Core inflation

Inflation expectations

% 10 9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

0

Note: Inflation expectations are defined as the 12-month ahead inflation expectations.

Source: Banco de la RepĂşblica.

9

Monetary policy is appropriately accommodative % 14

Taylor-rule target rate

Estimated Taylor rule rate

Monetary policy rate

% 14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: The Taylor rule target rule is computed as: nominal interest rate = real natural interest rate + inflation rate + 0.5*(inflation gap) + 0.5*(output gap); the inflation target is set at 3%; the natural real interest rate is taken to be 1%. The estimated Taylor rule rate is based on a simple quarterly regression of nominal interest rate on lagged nominal interest rate, current inflation and output gap estimated over 2002Q1-2019Q2.

Source: OECD calculations and Banco de la RepĂşblica.

0

10

Public debt is stabilising, but is vulnerable to risks Gross public debt scenarios, % of GDP % 60 55

Baseline scenario¹ Higher interest rates² Lower oil prices and higher interest rates³ Pro-grow th reforms with lower oil prices and higher interest rates⁴

% 60 55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Note: 1. Baseline long-term assumptions: Real long-term growth of 2.9%, long-term interest rate on government bonds of 5.6%, GDP deflator growth of 3%, Primary deficit of -0.3% of GDP in 2010 and -0.8% in 2030, Oil price (Brent) of 68 USD in the long-term.

2. Same assumptions as in 1, and real long-term interest rates are higher by 2 percentage points over 2019-2040.

3. Same assumptions as in 2, but lower oil prices at 52 USD per barrel in the long-term.

4. Same assumptions as in 3 and higher annual GDP growth of by 1.1 percentage points every year until 2028 and 1.6 percentage points afterwards (see Table 1).

Source: OECD calculations based on the fiscal targets included in the Medium Term Fiscal Plan as published in June 2018, Ministerio de Hacienda, and OECD Economic Outlook 103.

30

11

Fiscal targets are revised frequently Structural deficit targets % of GDP -1.2

% of GDP -1.2 Fiscal plan 2017

Fiscal plan 2018

Fiscal plan 2019

-1.4

-1.4

-1.6

-1.6

-1.8

-1.8

-2.0

2018

2019

2020

-2.0

Source: Ministerio de Hacienda y CrĂŠdito PĂşblico.

12

Public revenues remain below OECD countries % 60

Public revenues as % of GDP, 2018

% 60 50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

PER MEX CHL KOR COL IRL LAC USA TUR BRA CHE ARG JPN LTU AUS ISR GBR LVA NZL ESP SVK EST CAN OECD SVN POL CZE ISL PRT NLD HUN DEU LUX ITA AUT GRC SWE BEL FIN DNK FRA NOR

50

Note: Data refer to general government revenues. LAC refers to the unweighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April 2019.

13

More revenues could be generated from VAT

% of potential VAT rev enues 100

VAT revenue ratio

% of potential VAT rev enues 100

Increasing share of potential VAT revenues collected

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

MEX ITA COL TUR ESP GRC GBR POL ARG CRI PER CAN BEL URY FRA PRT SVK AUS IRL NLD FIN ISL DEU OECD NOR HUN SVN AUT DNK LAC SWE CZE ISR CHL PAN CHE KOR JPN EST ECU BOL LUX PRY NZL

80

Note: 2016 or latest year available. The VAT revenue ratio (VRR) is defined as the ratio between the actual value-added tax (VAT) revenue collected and the revenue that would theoretically be raised if VAT was applied at the standard rate to all final consumption. The OECD and LAC (excluding Colombia) aggregates are unweighted averages of data shown and data for Canada cover federal VAT only.

Source: OECD Consumption Tax Trends 2018, OECD Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2019.

14

Few people pay the personal income tax Income threshold where single taxpayers start paying income tax as a multiple of the average wage Multiple 3.5

Multiple 3.5 3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

DNK FRA TUR NLD AUS SWE NOR USA JPN DEU OECD KOR CAN GBR FIN SVK AUT EST ISR ITA ESP GRC MEX PRT IND CHL ARG BRA CRI COL

3.0

Note: In Denmark, France and Turkey, personal income tax is levied on the first earned currency unit. For India, the average worker income covers only the manufacturing sector, including both men and women.

Source: OECD calculations based on the Taxing Wages models.

15

Corporate taxation will remain high, even after the ongoing reforms Overall statutory corporate income tax rates, 2018

% 40

2022

% 40 35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

HUN IRL LTU CZE POL SVN GBR EST FIN ISL LVA SVK CHE DNK SWE TUR ISR NOR OECD AUT CHL NLD ESP USA LUX CAN KOR ITA NZL GRC BEL JPN DEU AUS MEX PRT FRA COL

35

Source: OECD Tax database.

16

Spending efficiency is hampered by rigidities Expenditure flexibility index 100 = LatAm average for flexibility Index lev el 200

Most Flex ible

Index lev el 200

Least Flex ible

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

ECU PER

NIC

PAN HND MEX GTM PRY SLV CHL BOL URY ARG COL

CRI

BRA

Note: The expenditure flexibility index tracks central government spending from 2010 to 2016 and classifies outlays as operating expenses (wage and other), transfers, investment or interest payments. The index is scaled using the regional average for mandatory spending as a share of total spending, creating a relative ranking.

Source: Moody's Investors Service.

0

17

Recommendations to improve the macroeconomic framework • Adhere to the fiscal rule and aim at a structural deficit of 1% by 2022.

• Establish an independent fiscal council to monitor fiscal risks and provide additional technical analysis on fiscal targets and its revisions.

• Reduce budget rigidities by cutting mandated spending and earmarking of revenues.

• Evaluate social programmes and tax exemptions and retain only those with a positive impact on productivity or equity.

• Broaden the base of the personal income tax by lowering the income threshold where taxpayers start paying income taxes and eliminating exemptions.

• Replace VAT reduced rates with cash transfers to low-income families.

• Lower the rate and broaden the base of corporate taxes.

• Reinforce tax administration and establish a limit for large cash transactions.

18

Raising productivity and integration into the world economy

19

Growth potential has fallen significantly Potential growth and contributions % 6

Participation rate

Capital per worker

Total factor productivity

Employment rate

Working age population

Potential growth

% 6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-2

Note: Potential growth is expressed as a percentage change. Contributions to growth are shown for the remaining variables.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 105 database.

20

Productivity is low Labour productivity levels, 2018 or latest year available

1 000 x USD 140

1 000 x USD 140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

BRA

COL

MEX

CHL

HUN

POL

NZL

Note: Units are measured in thousand USD per person employed (PPPs).

Source: OECD Productivity database.

SVK

CZE OECD DEU

AUS

FRA

USA

0

21

Policy reforms can raise living standards % difference from baseline GDP per capita (no policy change) scenario by policy area

% 20

18 16

Business regulation

Openness

Labour market

Lower corruption

% 20

Investment

18 16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

2-years

5-years

10-years

Long-term effect

0

Source: OECD 2019 economic survey of Colombia.

22

Competition is weak Extent of market dominance, 2018 7=best 7 6

Dominated by a few business groups

Spread among many firms

7=best 7 6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

ARG MEX COL CHL LAC BRA ZAF CRI IDN PRT NZL AUS ESP CZE FRA POL NOR DEU USA

Note: This indicator shows the extent of market dominance, 1-7 (best). In the World Economic Forum, Executive Opinion Survey, it is the answer to the following question: In your country, how do you characterize corporate activity? [1 = dominated by a few business groups; 7 = spread among many firms].

LAC refers to the unweighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico.

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 2018 dataset (version 13 October 2018).

0

23

The burden of regulations is high Perceived burden of regulations, 2018 7=best 7

7=best 7 High burden

6

Low burden

6

USA

DEU

NZL

IDN

NOR

OECD

TUR

AUS

CHL

KOR

ZAF

PRT

HUN

0

FRA

0

POL

1

CZE

1

MEX

2

ESP

2

COL

3

CRI

3

ARG

4

LAC

4

PER

5

BRA

5

Note: This indicator shows the perceived burden of regulations, 1-7 (best). In the World Economic Forum, Executive Opinion Survey, it is the answer to the following question: In your country, how burdensome is it for companies to comply with public administration’s requirements (e.g., permits, regulations, reporting)? [1 = extremely burdensome; 7 = not burdensome at all]. In both Panels, LAC refers to the unweighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru.

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 2018 dataset (version 13 October 2018).

24

The economy remains closed Exports plus imports, average 2010-2018 % of GDP 250

200

% of GDP 250 Less open

More open

200

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

BRA USA ARG JPN COL AUS CHN IDN RUS IND PER TUR NZL ITA GBR FRA ESP GRC CHL CAN ISR CRI NOR MEX SAU FIN PRT DEU SWE KOR POL TUN DNK AUT CHE THA MYS SVN CZE NLD BEL HUN SVK IRL

150

Note: Data for Peru show the average for the period 2010 - 2017.

Source: OECD Analytical database; IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS).

25

The quality of infrastructure is low Quality of road infrastructure, 2018 7=best 7

Lower quality

Higher quality

7=best 7 6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

COL LVA BRA ARG CZE SVK LAC POL HUN NOR MEX SVN ISL BEL ITA GRC IRL NZL EST LTU AUS OECD TUR ISR GBR CHL CAN FIN LUX SWE ESP DEU DNK KOR USA AUT PRT FRA JPN NLD CHE

6

Note: LAC refers to the unweighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.

Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Index dataset (2007-2017).

26

Trade tariffs remain high

% 10

Applied tariffs: all products, 2015 or latest year available

% 10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

CHL CHE ISL CAN PER AUS IDN ISR RUS VNM NOR THA MEX CHN KOR COL ARG BRA

0

Source: World Bank, World Integrated Trade Solutions.

27

Non-tariff barriers are high Frequency index of quantitative restrictions

Source: OECD calculations based on Cadot, Gourdon and van Tongeren (2018).

Optical & med. Instr.

Vehicles

Machinery

Metals

Pearls

Stone & glass

Footwear

Textile and clothing

Paper

Wood products

World average

Leather

Plastics

Chemicals

Minerals

Beverages & tobacco

Fats & oils

Vegetables

Colombia

Animals

% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

28

Logistics in ports and customs are costly International logistics performance, indicator score

Score 4

Poor performance

Score 4

Good performance

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

BOL

COL

CRI

LAC

Upper middle income

ECU

PER

ARG

URY

Note: LAC, Upper middle income and OECD are defined according to the definitions of the World Bank.

Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index, 2016.

BRA

MEX

CHL

OECD

0

29

Key recommendations to boost productivity and integration into the world economy • Grant the competition authority the ability to impose higher and more dissuasive sanctions.

• Widen the scope of regulatory impact assessments, including also the stock of regulations.

• Make a greater use of one-stop shops and online tools for administrative procedures.

• Phase out import restrictions and review other non-tariff barriers with a view to reducing them.

• Reduce tariff dispersion.

• Prioritise improving multi-modal transport connectivity of ports and customs, and reduce barriers to entry and competition in transport.

• Improve customs logistics, including by increasing interagency cooperation and making further use of paperless online solutions for permissions and payments.

30

Achieving more inclusive growth

31

Social policy does little to reduce inequality Working age population 2017 or latest year available

Gini coefficient 0.6

Gini coefficient 0.6

Gini after taxes and transfers

Gini before taxes and transfers

BRA

COL

MEX

CHL

USA

PRT

ESP

GBR

FRA

ITA

AUT

0

TUR

0.1

OECD

0.1

DEU

0.2

AUS

0.2

DNK

0.3

NLD

0.3

JPN

0.4

CAN

0.4

NOR

0.5

SWE

0.5

0

Note: OECD refers to the unweighted average of all its member countries.

Source: OECD calculations based on GEIH Household Survey (2017) and OECD Income Distribution and Poverty database.

32

Education outcomes can be improved further Science performance Pisa score 510

2015

Pisa score 510

2006

490 470

490 Worse outcomes

Better outcomes

470

450

450

430

430

410

410

390

390

370

370

350

PER

BRA

MEX

COL

CRI

CHL

OECD

350

Source: OECD PISA 2006 and 2015.

33

Many old-aged are not receiving a pension Share of old-aged receiving a pension % of population 65+ % 150

% 150 Old age (non-contributory) beneficiaries

Old age (earnings related) beneficiaries

FRA

TUR

JPN

GBR

AUT

NLD

SWE

DEU

PRT

OECD

DNK

ITA

0

BRA

0

NOR

30

CHL

30

USA

60

CAN

60

ESP

90

CRI

90

COL

120

MEX

120

Note: Data refer to 2018 for Colombia. Data are latest available data for the remaining countries. OECD refers to the unweighted average of latest available data of its member countries excluding Australia, Israel and Switzerland.

Source: Colpensiones; World Bank.

34

Informality remains widespread despite reforms Informal employment

% 72 Formalisation 70

Abolition payroll tax es

and Job Creation Law

% 92

National

Rural (RHS) 90

68

88

66

86

64

84

62

82 Abolition health care contribution employers

60 58

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

80 2015

2016

2017

2018

Note: Informality is defined as the percentage of workers in employment not contributing to the pension or health system. The statistical definition is different from the one followed by DANE. Source: OECD calculations based on GEIH of DANE.

78

35

The minimum wage is high, diminishing employment prospects of low-skilled % 90

As a percentage of median wage of full-time workers, 2017

% 90 80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

RUS CHN ARG USA MEX ESP CZE EST JPN CAN IRL NLD BEL DEU SVK GRC LVA OECD LUX HUN KOR GBR LTU POL AUS SVN ISR NZL PRT FRA CRI CHL BRA TUR IDN COL

80

Note: The OECD refers to the unweighted average of the data shown for its member countries.

Source: OECD, Going for Growth, Structural Policy Indicators database.

36

Non-wage labour costs are relatively high

% 80

Average non-wage cost of salaried workers as % of the average net formal wage

% 80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

CHL

MEX

LAC

COL

CRI

PER

BRA

ARG

0

Note: Year 2014. LAC refers to the average of 20 countries in the region. Estimations include mandatory contributions (such as social security contributions for health and pensions, professional risk, transport subsidy), 13th salary in the form of bonuses, annual leave, severance payment and firing notice.

Source: Alaimo et al. (2017), “Measuring the Cost of Salaried Labor in Latin America and the Caribbean�, IDB Technical Note N. 1291, https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/8430.

37

More money is made available for labour inspections Budget for inspection, surveillance and control Million COP$ 9 000

Million COP$ 9 000

8 000

8 000

7 000

7 000

6 000

6 000

5 000

5 000

4 000

4 000

3 000

3 000

2 000

2 000

1 000

1 000

0

2011

2012

Note: The budget for 2018 is an estimate.

Source: Ministry of Labour.

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

38

Spending on active labour market policies is low Public spending on active labor market programmes, 2016 or latest year available

% of GDP 2.5

% of GDP 2.5

DNK

SWE

FRA

FIN

AUT

NLD

DEU

ESP

BRA

OECD

ITA

0.0

PRT

0.0

ARG

0.5

COL

0.5

CAN

1.0

AUS

1.0

CHL

1.5

JPN

1.5

USA

2.0

MEX

2.0

Note: Data are from 2010 for Argentina, Brazil and Colombia. OECD refers to an unweighted average of the latest available data of its member countries.

Source: OECD, Public expenditure and participant stocks on Labour Market Programmes database. Data for Argentina, Brazil and Colombia are from Cerutti et al. (June 2014), World Bank.

39

The poorest receive the least training Share of workers receiving on-the-job training in the last 24 months % 40

% 40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

1

2

3

Poorest labour income quintile

4

5

0

Richest labour income quintile

Source: Year 2015. OECD calculations based on GEIH, DANE, for-the-job learning module (2015).

40

Many women are trapped in low-quality jobs % aged 18-64

% aged 18-64

70

70 Female

Male

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

Inactive

Unemployed

Restricted hours

Very low earnings

Unstable jobs

Informal

Note: Year 2017. Precarious jobs are showed as % of employed aged 18-64, and are defined as unstable jobs (all those jobs being not permanent) or informal jobs (not affiliated or contributing to the pension system), having very low earnings (monthly labour income is lower than the 60% of the minimum wage) or jobs with restricted hours (working less than 20 hours a week).

Source: OECD calculations based on GEIH, DANE.

0

41

Key recommendations to achieve more inclusive growth •

Establish a comprehensive strategy to reduce the cost of formalisation, including reducing non-wage costs, reviewing the minimum wage to achieve a more jobfriendly level, reducing firms’ registration costs and simplifying the registration of workers.

•

Improve targeting and focus spending on social programmes targeted at lowincome individuals.

•

Target higher cash transfers towards the most vulnerable, especially those in rural areas.

•

Prioritise spending on education that increases coverage in early education.

•

Reallocate more resources to the most vulnerable territories.

•

Make teaching in rural areas more attractive by shaping the working conditions and professional opportunities in these areas.

•

Gradually increase and align the retirement age of women and men.

•

Boost coverage and benefit levels in the non-contributory scheme (Colombia Mayor).

•

Extend coverage in the public scheme and finance it by increasing the number of years of earnings on which pensions are based.

42

More information‌ http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/colombia-economic-snapshot/

Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

OECD Economics OECD 43