Presentation of the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Switzerland

2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND Boosting productivity and meeting skills needs Bern, 14 November 2017 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm

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Living standards are high OECD Better Life Index, 2017 Index scale, 0 (lowest) to 10 (best) Switzerland

Income and wealth 10 Subjective well-being

8

Jobs and earnings

OECD

6 Personal security

4

Housing

2 0

Environmental quality

Work and life balance

Social connections

Health status Education and skills

Note: For each dimension indicators are normalised and averaged.

Source: OECD, Better Life Index.

2

The economy is growing but only slowly GDP growth % y-o-y 6 4 2

0 -2 -4 2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Source: SECO. 3

Employment is high Employment-to-population ratio % 85

Switzerland

OECD

80 75 70 65 60 55

50 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics database.

4

Productivity has stalled Trend labour productivity growth % 2.0 Switzerland

OECD

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Source: OECD, OECD Economic Outlook 102 database, preliminary version.

5

The demand for skilled workers has been strong Contributions to changes in total employment growth over 2000-16 % pts 50 40

High skill

Middle skill

Low skill

30

20 10 0 -10

-30

GRC FIN SVK NLD LVA CZE DNK HUN ITA EST ESP BEL DEU EU15 SVN IRL POL PRT AUT GBR FRA NOR CHE SWE ISL LUX

-20

Note: Countries are ordered by the contribution of high-skill employment Source: Eurostat.

6

Entrenching the expansion

7

Fiscal policy is sound and public debt low Gross general government debt, % of GDP 120

Switzerland

OECD

100 80 60

40 20 0

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Note: The shaded area denotes the 25th to 75th percentile range for OECD countries. OECD is an unweighted average of data for available countries.

Source: OECD, OECD Economic Outlook 102 database, preliminary version.

8

Unconventional monetary policy has supported growth Interest rates

SNB’s foreign exchange reserves

% 4

% of imports 225 SNB target range

3

3-month, CHF LIBOR

2

175 150 125

1

100

0

75

50

-1 -2

200

CHF/EUR ceiling

25 2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

0

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Source: Swiss National Bank; Thomson Reuters Datastream; OECD, OECD Economic Outlook 102 database, preliminary version.

2016

9

Low interest rates increase risks House prices, 2010 = 100 130 120 110

100 Ratio to consumer prices 90 80

Ratio to average household income 2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Source: OECD, House Price database.

10

Household credit is high Household credit, % of GDP, 2017 Q1 140 120 100 80

60 40

0

MEX TUR HUN CZE POL ISR ITA CHL IRL AUT DEU JPN FRA BEL LUX GRC ESP FIN PRT USA SWE GBR KOR NZL CAN NOR NLD DNK AUS CHE

20

Source: OECD, Vulnerability Indicators database.

11

Age-related public spending will become a fiscal burden 25 20

Long-term projections for age-related spending, % of GDP By type of spending By level of government Long-term care

Health care

Pensions (AHV/IV)

Education

25 20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

2013

2030

2045

Communes Social security

Cantons Confederation 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2013

2030

Source: Federal Department of Finance (2016), Report on the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances in Switzerland.

2045

12

The current account surplus is large

CHE

NLD

DEU

DNK

ISL

KOR

HUN

SVN

NOR

LUX

SWE

JPN

ISR

IRL

ITA

ESP

EST

AUT

LVA

PRT

% of GDP 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

CZE

Current account balance in OECD countries with a surplus, 2016

Source: OECD, OECD Economic Outlook 102 database, preliminary version.

13

High household saving is contributing to the large current account surplus Net saving and investment balances in selected countries with a current account surplus % of GDP

DEU

NLD

Net investment

Net investment

SWE

Net saving

Corporations

Net saving

Net investment

Net saving

Net investment

Net investment

DNK

General government

Net saving

Households

Net saving

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2

CHE

Source: OECD, Annual National Accounts database; Federal Statistical Office; OECD calculations.

14

Key fiscal and financial recommendations  To support growth:  Avoid persistent budget underspending through better co-ordinating procedures at federal and sub-national levels.  Reduce agricultural subsidies and pursue efficiency gains in public spending to free up funds for measures that enhance growth and inclusiveness.

 To reduce risks:  Eliminate remaining explicit cantonal government guarantees to their public banks.  Establish a formal framework for setting mortgage lending limits that takes affordability into account and is enforced on a comply-or-explain basis.

15

Key fiscal and financial recommendations (cont.)  To address ageing-related challenges:  Fix the retirement age at 65 for both sexes, and thereafter link it to life expectancy.  Increase financial incentives to work longer before retirement.  Promote programmes to lengthen healthy working lives, including preventative health programmes.  Promote lifelong training, career planning and tailored job-search assistance to enhance workers’ resilience to change.

16

Boosting productivity for long-term growth

17

Productivity is high, but sluggish Average annual rate of trend labour productivity growth over 2006-16 % 3.5 3.0 2.5

2.0 1.5 1.0

0.5

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

0.0

-1.0

GRC ITA LUX FIN AUT CHE MEX DEU GBR JPN BEL NLD NZL DNK FRA ESP CAN ISR PRT ISL NOR SWE HUN AUS USA SVN CZE EST IRL KOR SVK TUR POL CHL

-0.5

Source: OECD, OECD Economic Outlook 102 database, preliminary version.

18

Switzerland is a leader in R&D and innovation Innovation performance indicator EU average level in 2010 = 100 180 160

Moderate innovators

Strong innovators

Innovation leaders

140 120 100 80 60

40 0

POL LVA TUR HUN GRC SVK ITA ESP EST PRT CZE SVN EU28 FRA ISR IRL NOR BEL LUX AUT ISL DEU GBR NLD FIN DNK SWE CHE

20

Source: European Commission (2017), European Innovation Scoreboard 2017.

19

The productivity of frontier firms has diverged from the rest Labour productivity, 2002 = 100 250 Most productive 1% of firms

Other firms

200 150

100 50 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Note: Markers denote survey years. Labour productivity is calculated as value added per employee.

Source: OECD calculations based on KOF, Swiss Innovation Survey.

20

The administrative burden is heavy Share of firms that discontinued their business citing bureaucracy as the main cause, % 60 50 40

30 20 10 0

KOR NLD AUS NOR DEU PRT ESP GBR ISR BEL FIN USA CAN SWE ITA CHE

Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2015/2016, Report on Switzerland.

21

Regulatory barriers to competition are high Product market regulation indicator 3.5 3.0

Least restrictive countries¹

Euro area

Switzerland

Restrictiveness

2.5

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Professional services

Retail distribution

Transport

Network sectors Communication overall²

Energy

1. ”Least restrictive countries” is the average of the three countries with the lowest score in each sector. Scores range from 0 to 6 and increase with restrictiveness.

2. Network sectors overall is the unweighted average of transport, communication and energy.

Source: OECD, Product Market Regulation database.

22

Barriers to trade inhibit competition and productivity Services Trade Restrictiveness Index, for sectors with largest gaps 0.50 Switzerland

OECD

0.30 0.20

Courier

Broadcasting

Computer

Construction

Commercial banking

Motion pictures

Engineering

Logistics freight forwarding

0.00

Sound recording

0.10

Logistics storage and warehouse

Restrictiveness

0.40

Source: OECD, Services Trade Restrictiveness Index database.

23

Most women work part-time Part-time employment as a share of total % 80

70 60

Men

Women

50 40 30 20 0

HUN SVK CZE POL LVA GRC PRT SVN EST TUR FIN ESP USA CAN CHL FRA SWE ISR ITA MEX ISL NZL IRL LUX DNK JPN NOR BEL GBR AUS DEU AUT CHE NLD

10

Source: OECD, Labour Force Statistics database.

24

Key recommendations to boost productivity  To improve framework conditions:  Increase private ownership and remove barriers to entry in energy, telecommunications and transport.  Remove representatives of economic associations from the competition authority’s board.  Lower restrictions on trade in both goods and services, notably in agricultural products.  Complete the negotiations for free-trade agreements that are underway.  Finalise the virtual one-stop shop for administrative matters.  Establish cantonal physical contact points to improve delivery of advisory services and public financing programmes.

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Key recommendations to boost productivity (cont.)  To better use skills of women and immigrants:  Increase childcare affordability.  Shift income taxation to individual rather than household incomes, or implement equivalent measures.  Facilitate high-skilled immigration from non-EU countries to meet labour market needs.

26

Ensuring a dynamic skills training and life-long learning system

27

The education and training system is successful Youth not in employment, education or training % of 18-24 year-olds 35 30

25 20 15 10

0

ISL NLD DNK LUX CHE NOR DEU SWE SVN AUS EST AUT LTU BEL NZL CAN GBR USA SVK OECD HUN LVA FIN ISR POL PRT IRL FRA CHL MEX ESP GRC ITA TUR

5

Source: OECD (2017), Education at a Glance 2017.

28

Immigration has helped to meet the rising demand for skilled workers Contribution to working-age population growth by education and nationality, % points 12

Swiss citizens

10

Other nationalities 1997-2007

8

2007-2017

6 4 2 0 -2 -4

Lower secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

Lower secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

Source: Federal Statistical Office.

29

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

1.

Source: Federal Statistical Office.

IT & other information servicesยน

IT & communications

Finance & insurance

Average since 2009

Manufacture of other specialised machinery

Manufacturing of computers & watches

Real estate & scientific services

Trade and repair of motor vehicles

Manufacture of metal products

Accommodation & food services

Total economy

High-skill vacancy rates are rising Sectors with above-average vacancy rates, % Year to 2017Q2

IT and Other Information Services is a subsector of IT and Communications.

30

Tertiary education should further expand Entry rates for bachelor’s degree or equivalent¹ %

80 70 60 50 40 30

20 0

LUX HUN AUT MEX ITA SWE PRT ESP DEU ISR FIN SVK CZE GBR TUR CHE NLD NZL EST CHL ISL NOR BEL DNK SVN IRL AUS

10

1. First-time entry rates, excluding international students. First-time entry rates indicate the share of young adults expected to enter that type of tertiary education programme during their lifetime.

Source: OECD (2017), Education at a Glance 2017.

31

Participation in life-long learning is high 25-64 year-olds participating in education and training in the preceding four weeks, 2016 % 35 30 25

20 15 10

0

SVK POL GRC TUR HUN IRL LVA BEL ITA DEU CZE ESP PRT EU28 EA SVN GBR EST AUT LUX NLD FRA NOR ISL FIN DNK SWE CHE

5

Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey 2016.

32

Participation in life-long learning is not broad-based Difference in participation rates of those with high and low levels of education, 20161 % pts 35 30

25 20 15 10

0 1.

GRC IRL POL BEL HUN LVA DEU TUR NOR ESP CZE EU28 GBR EA DNK PRT ITA NLD EST LUX SVN ISL SWE FIN AUT FRA CHE

5

25-64 year-olds participating in education and training in the preceding four weeks. Difference in participation rate of those with tertiary education and less than upper secondary school.

Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey 2016.

33

Key recommendations for a dynamic skills training and life-long learning system  Collect more detailed data on skills to facilitate adjustments to education in response to changing labour market needs.  Enhance the effectiveness of pathways between vocational and general streams by increasing the academic component of the vocational curriculum and vice-versa.  Encourage small firms to participate more in apprenticeships by promoting sharing of apprenticeship places between firms and training centres that undertake part of the training.  Strengthen linkages between the vocational education and training system and employer associations in school-based vocational training.  Use subsidies to encourage participation in continuing education and training for groups with low participation rates.

34

For more information Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm

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