OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF
SPAIN
Promoting stronger and more sustainable growth for all people across Spain Madrid,
25 October 2023 oe.cd/spain @OECDeconomy @OECD
Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been steady following the large fall of GDP in 2020 GDP Volume, base 2019Q4 = 100
105
Spain
Germany
France
105
Italy
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
2020
Note: Seasonally and calendar adjusted data. Source: OECD Economic Outlook.
2021
2022
2023
75
2
Core and food inflation remain high Harmonised index of consumer prices Year-on-year increase, % 60
20 Headline
Core
Food
Energy (→)
15
45
10
30
5
15
0
0
-5
-15
-10
2019
Source: Eurostat.
2020
2021
2022
2023
-30
3
Growth will remain solid 2022
2023
2024
Real GDP growth, %
5.8
2.5
1.5
Consumer price index, % change
8.3
3.5
3.7
Core inflation, %
3.8
4.0
3.0
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database. 4
Addressing fiscal challenges
Rebuilding fiscal space is important Public debt, Maastricht definition % of GDP
140
140
European Union 120
120 Spain 100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0 1995
2000
2005
Note: Debt for European Union is based on the average of 22 OECD-EU countries. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
2010
2015
2020
0
6
6
There is room to increase tax revenues General government revenue % of GDP 50
50 Spain
European Union
45
45
40
40
35
35
30 1995
2000
2005
2010
Note: Revenue for the European Union is the unweighted average of 22 OECD-EU countries. Source: OECD (2022), National Accounts database; OECD Economic Outlook database.
2015
2020
30
7
7
Raising productivity
Productivity growth needs to become stronger GDP per hour worked USD, constant prices, 2015 PPPs 100
132
2022
2012
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
COL MEX CRI CHL GRC EST HUN PRT LVA CZE KOR NZL POL LTU ISR SVN SVK JPN ESP TUR CAN OECD ITA EU AUS GBR FIN ISL FRA NLD DEU AUT USA SWE BEL DNK CHE NOR LUX IRL
80
Note: The value for the OECD is the weighted average of the 38 OECD countries in the chart. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of 27 EU countries. Source: OECD Productivity statistics.
9
9
Increasing R&D spending could raise productivity Gross domestic expenditure on R&D % of GDP, 2021 or latest year 6
6 Business and private non-profit
Government and higher education
Total 5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
COL MEX CHL LVA SVK LUX IRL LTU TUR NZL ESP POL GRC ITA HUN PRT CAN EST AUS NOR CZE OECD SVN EU FRA NLD ISL DNK FIN DEU AUT CHE BEL JPN SWE USA KOR ISR
5
Note: The value for the OECD is the GDP weighted average of the 37 OECD countries in the chart. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of 27 EU countries. Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators Database.
10
Seed capital sources for entrepreneurs should be broadened beyond own savings Sources of seed capital 2022
Crowd funding 1%
Other sources 7%
Business angels 1% Public programmes 7%
Family and friends 12% Financial institutions 17%
Source: Observatorio del Emprendimiento de España (2023).
Own savings 55%
11
Promoting opportunities for people across Spain
Fiscal support measures should become better targeted towards those most in need Share of total social cash benefits by household disposable income quintile % 30
European Union
30
Spain
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1st quintile Lowest-income
2nd quintile
3rd quintile
4th quintile
5th quintile Highest-income
Note: Data for the EU-27 exclude the Slovak Republic. Data refer to year 2018, except for Ireland (2016) and Italy (2017). Source: Levy, H. (2022), "Social welfare systems and inequality in Europe, Closing Spain’s social protection gap", Inequality and social contract outreach report, OECD and "La Caixa" Foundation.
0
13
The risk of poverty is particularly high among young people Persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion by age %
40
40
30
30
20
20 Spain 16-24 years
Spain All ages
10
10 EU 16-24 years
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
EU All ages
2019
2020
2021
2022
0
Note: Persons at risk of poverty, or severely materially and socially deprived or living in a household with a very low work intensity. Persons at risk of poverty have an equivalised disposable income (after social transfer) below 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income after social transfers. The values for the European Union are the unweighted average of 27 EU countries. Source: Eurostat.
14
Improving educational attainment should be a priority Share of 25-34 year-olds with below upper secondary education %, 2022
50
50 40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
KOR CAN SVN IRL USA POL LTU SVK CZE GRC ISR AUS FIN CHE NLD EST AUT LVA FRA LUX BEL CHL GBR NZL HUN OECD SWE DEU NOR PRT DNK ITA COL ISL ESP TUR CRI MEX
40
Source: OECD Education at a Glance.
15
The number of young people in stable employment has risen Share of temporary employment %, 15-24 year-olds, 2022
ESP (2019)
NLD
SVN
PRT
ITA
FRA
SWE
POL
CHE
BEL
DEU
LUX
FIN
OECD
AUT
ESP (2022)
Note: OECD is a simple average of the countries in the chart. Source: Eurostat.
DNK
ISL
0
IRL
0
NOR
20
CZE
20
GRC
40
SVK
40
EST
60
HUN
60
LVA
80
LTU
80
16
Very short-term contracts have fallen among young workers Annual change in the share of temporary contracts by duration %, 16-29 year olds, 2022 0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
< 1 week
Source: State Public Employment Service (SEPE).
1 week - 1 month
1 - 6 months
6 - 12 months
17
There is room to increase the stock of social rental housing Social rental dwellings as a share of the total %, 2020 or latest year available
35
35
Note: The value for the European Union is the unweighted average of 20 EU countries. Source: OECD Affordable Housing Database.
NLD
AUT
DNK
GBR
FRA
IRL
ISL
FIN
KOR
CHE
POL
EU
OECD
SVN
AUS
NOR
BEL
NZL
USA
CAN
0
JPN
0
DEU
5
HUN
5
ITA
10
PRT
10
LVA
15
SVK
15
LUX
20
ESP
20
EST
25
LTU
25
CZE
30
COL
30
18
Addressing environmental challenges
Despite progress, energy supply from renewables should increase further Total energy supply by source 5,000
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000
17%, Renewables and waste 7%
4,000
13%, Nuclear
16%
56%
3,000 2,000
67%, Other fossil fuels
1,000
1,000 0
21% 1990
3%, Coal 2021
0
Note: Coal comprises coal, peat and oil shale. “Other fossil fuels” comprises oil products, natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks. Renewables and waste comprises hydro, geothermal, solar, wind and tide/wave/ocean energy and the use of these energy forms for electricity and heat generation, as well as solid biofuels, biogases, industrial waste and municipal waste. Source: IEA (2023), IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database).
20
A more environmentally-friendly tax regime is needed Environmentally-related tax revenue % of GDP 5
Spain
OECD
France
Greece
5
Italy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1995
2000
2005
Source: OECD (2023) Policy Instruments for the Environment (PINE) Database.
2010
2015
2020
21
Improving water availability and quality is urgent Groundwater stations with poor quality standards % 2016-2019
2012-2015
DEU
ESP
LUX
PRT
BEL
DNK
EU
NLD
FRA
ITA
0
SVK
0
GRC
5
CZE
5
SVN
10
HUN
10
AUT
15
POL
15
EST
20
LTU
20
FIN
25
IRL
25
LVA
30
SWE
30
Note: Water stations failing to meet the drinking water standard as per the EU Nitrates Directive. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of the 27 EU countries. Source: European Environment Agency (EEA).
22
Main messages Fiscal
Step up fiscal restraint to lower public debt, make space for ageing-related and growthenhancing spending
Growth
Promote productivity-enhancing investment and regulation
Youth
Enhance education, facilitate youth labour market participation, improve entrepreneurship, and boost access to housing
Green
Promote renewables and adopt a more environment-friendly tax regime 23
OECDEconomy OECD
For more information
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