OECD Economic Survey of Spain 2023 - Key messages and data points

OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF

SPAIN

Promoting stronger and more sustainable growth for all people across Spain Madrid,

25 October 2023 oe.cd/spain @OECDeconomy @OECD

Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been steady following the large fall of GDP in 2020 GDP Volume, base 2019Q4 = 100

105

Spain

Germany

France

105

Italy

100

100

95

95

90

90

85

85

80

80

75

2020

Note: Seasonally and calendar adjusted data.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

2021

2022

2023

75

2

Core and food inflation remain high Harmonised index of consumer prices Year-on-year increase, % 60

20 Headline

Core

Food

Energy (→)

15

45

10

30

5

15

0

0

-5

-15

-10

2019

Source: Eurostat.

2020

2021

2022

2023

-30

3

Growth will remain solid 2022

2023

2024

Real GDP growth, %

5.8

2.5

1.5

Consumer price index, % change

8.3

3.5

3.7

Core inflation, %

3.8

4.0

3.0

Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.

4

Addressing fiscal challenges

Rebuilding fiscal space is important Public debt, Maastricht definition % of GDP

140

140

European Union 120

120 Spain 100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0 1995

2000

2005

Note: Debt for European Union is based on the average of 22 OECD-EU countries.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.

2010

2015

2020

0

6

6

There is room to increase tax revenues General government revenue % of GDP 50

50 Spain

European Union

45

45

40

40

35

35

30 1995

2000

2005

2010

Note: Revenue for the European Union is the unweighted average of 22 OECD-EU countries.

Source: OECD (2022), National Accounts database; OECD Economic Outlook database.

2015

2020

30

7

7

Raising productivity

Productivity growth needs to become stronger GDP per hour worked USD, constant prices, 2015 PPPs 100

132

2022

2012

100

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

COL MEX CRI CHL GRC EST HUN PRT LVA CZE KOR NZL POL LTU ISR SVN SVK JPN ESP TUR CAN OECD ITA EU AUS GBR FIN ISL FRA NLD DEU AUT USA SWE BEL DNK CHE NOR LUX IRL

80

Note: The value for the OECD is the weighted average of the 38 OECD countries in the chart. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of 27 EU countries.

Source: OECD Productivity statistics.

9

9

Increasing R&D spending could raise productivity Gross domestic expenditure on R&D % of GDP, 2021 or latest year 6

6 Business and private non-profit

Government and higher education

Total 5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

COL MEX CHL LVA SVK LUX IRL LTU TUR NZL ESP POL GRC ITA HUN PRT CAN EST AUS NOR CZE OECD SVN EU FRA NLD ISL DNK FIN DEU AUT CHE BEL JPN SWE USA KOR ISR

5

Note: The value for the OECD is the GDP weighted average of the 37 OECD countries in the chart. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of 27 EU countries.

Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators Database.

10

Seed capital sources for entrepreneurs should be broadened beyond own savings Sources of seed capital 2022

Crowd funding 1%

Other sources 7%

Business angels 1% Public programmes 7%

Family and friends 12% Financial institutions 17%

Source: Observatorio del Emprendimiento de España (2023).

Own savings 55%

11

Promoting opportunities for people across Spain

Fiscal support measures should become better targeted towards those most in need Share of total social cash benefits by household disposable income quintile % 30

European Union

30

Spain

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

1st quintile Lowest-income

2nd quintile

3rd quintile

4th quintile

5th quintile Highest-income

Note: Data for the EU-27 exclude the Slovak Republic. Data refer to year 2018, except for Ireland (2016) and Italy (2017).

Source: Levy, H. (2022), "Social welfare systems and inequality in Europe, Closing Spain’s social protection gap", Inequality and social contract outreach report, OECD and "La Caixa" Foundation.

0

13

The risk of poverty is particularly high among young people Persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion by age %

40

40

30

30

20

20 Spain 16-24 years

Spain All ages

10

10 EU 16-24 years

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

EU All ages

2019

2020

2021

2022

0

Note: Persons at risk of poverty, or severely materially and socially deprived or living in a household with a very low work intensity. Persons at risk of poverty have an equivalised disposable income (after social transfer) below 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income after social transfers. The values for the European Union are the unweighted average of 27 EU countries.

Source: Eurostat.

14

Improving educational attainment should be a priority Share of 25-34 year-olds with below upper secondary education %, 2022

50

50 40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

KOR CAN SVN IRL USA POL LTU SVK CZE GRC ISR AUS FIN CHE NLD EST AUT LVA FRA LUX BEL CHL GBR NZL HUN OECD SWE DEU NOR PRT DNK ITA COL ISL ESP TUR CRI MEX

40

Source: OECD Education at a Glance.

15

The number of young people in stable employment has risen Share of temporary employment %, 15-24 year-olds, 2022

ESP (2019)

NLD

SVN

PRT

ITA

FRA

SWE

POL

CHE

BEL

DEU

LUX

FIN

OECD

AUT

ESP (2022)

Note: OECD is a simple average of the countries in the chart.

Source: Eurostat.

DNK

ISL

0

IRL

0

NOR

20

CZE

20

GRC

40

SVK

40

EST

60

HUN

60

LVA

80

LTU

80

16

Very short-term contracts have fallen among young workers Annual change in the share of temporary contracts by duration %, 16-29 year olds, 2022 0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-5

< 1 week

Source: State Public Employment Service (SEPE).

1 week - 1 month

1 - 6 months

6 - 12 months

17

There is room to increase the stock of social rental housing Social rental dwellings as a share of the total %, 2020 or latest year available

35

35

Note: The value for the European Union is the unweighted average of 20 EU countries.

Source: OECD Affordable Housing Database.

NLD

AUT

DNK

GBR

FRA

IRL

ISL

FIN

KOR

CHE

POL

EU

OECD

SVN

AUS

NOR

BEL

NZL

USA

CAN

0

JPN

0

DEU

5

HUN

5

ITA

10

PRT

10

LVA

15

SVK

15

LUX

20

ESP

20

EST

25

LTU

25

CZE

30

COL

30

18

Addressing environmental challenges

Despite progress, energy supply from renewables should increase further Total energy supply by source 5,000

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

17%, Renewables and waste 7%

4,000

13%, Nuclear

16%

56%

3,000 2,000

67%, Other fossil fuels

1,000

1,000 0

21% 1990

3%, Coal 2021

0

Note: Coal comprises coal, peat and oil shale. “Other fossil fuels” comprises oil products, natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks. Renewables and waste comprises hydro, geothermal, solar, wind and tide/wave/ocean energy and the use of these energy forms for electricity and heat generation, as well as solid biofuels, biogases, industrial waste and municipal waste.

Source: IEA (2023), IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database).

20

A more environmentally-friendly tax regime is needed Environmentally-related tax revenue % of GDP 5

Spain

OECD

France

Greece

5

Italy

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1995

2000

2005

Source: OECD (2023) Policy Instruments for the Environment (PINE) Database.

2010

2015

2020

21

Improving water availability and quality is urgent Groundwater stations with poor quality standards % 2016-2019

2012-2015

DEU

ESP

LUX

PRT

BEL

DNK

EU

NLD

FRA

ITA

0

SVK

0

GRC

5

CZE

5

SVN

10

HUN

10

AUT

15

POL

15

EST

20

LTU

20

FIN

25

IRL

25

LVA

30

SWE

30

Note: Water stations failing to meet the drinking water standard as per the EU Nitrates Directive. The value for the EU is the unweighted average of the 27 EU countries.

Source: European Environment Agency (EEA).

22

Main messages Fiscal

Step up fiscal restraint to lower public debt, make space for ageing-related and growthenhancing spending

Growth

Promote productivity-enhancing investment and regulation

Youth

Enhance education, facilitate youth labour market participation, improve entrepreneurship, and boost access to housing

Green

Promote renewables and adopt a more environment-friendly tax regime 23

OECDEconomy OECD

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