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Going for Growth 2019

The time for reform is now 12th July 2019


The time for reform is now World trend real GDP per capita growth decomposition by factor, % points 4.5

3

35.0

Advanced economies (left axis)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

32.5

Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.

7 5

1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

2060

9

1.5

2055

37.5

2

2050

11

40.0

2.5

2045

13

42.5

30.0

15

Employment rate Labour efficiency

2040

Emerging-market economies (right axis)

3.5

2035

45.0

17

2030

47.5

4

2025

50.0

Extrapolations based on pre-crisis trends

2010

52.5

19

2005

55.0

Working-age population Capital per worker World

2020

GDP per capita in thousands USD, constant 2010 prices and PPPs

Ageing will weigh on global growth prospects

2015

GDP per capita is on a lower path than before the crisis

Note: “World” refers to an aggrega5te of 46 countries, accounting for 82% of today’s world output at PPPs. Working age population is defined as 15-74 years old. Source: Guilemettte and Turner, 2018.

2


Reforms need to improve the situation of the most vulnerable Inequality is still very high, in particular in emergingmarket economies

In many OECD countries, low-income households are still struggling with the aftermaths of the global financial crisis

Gini coefficient, disposable income

Index 1995 = 100

140

Advanced economies

Emerging-market economies

135

SVK

Median

USA

24.1

29.7

39.1

125

RUS

Median

ZAF

120

37.7

46.2

63.0

Top 10%

130

Median

115 110

Bottom 10%

105 100 1995 Notes: Emerging market economies excluding India and Indonesia. 2016 or last available year. Source: OECD, Income Distribution Database; World Bank, World Development Indicators; China National Bureau of Statistics.

2000

2005

2010

2015

Note: Unweighted average for 19 OECD countries. Source: OECD (2019), Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class.

3


Yet, the pace of reform is not fast enough The pace of structural reforms is well below the post-crisis peak Responsiveness rates to Going for Growth recommendations, %

45

Advanced economies Emerging-market economies

40

35

30

25

20

2007-08

2009-10

2011-12

2013-14

2015-16

2017-18

Note: Simple average across countries.

4


Going for Growth 2019: reforms to boost inclusive, environmentally-sustainable growth To guide policymakers where to best focus reform efforts in 46 OECD and key non-member economies: • Setting the Top 5 reform priorities for each economy • Recommending policy measures to address them • Tracking reform actions No one-size-fits all solutions 5


Reforms to ensure stronger and fairer outcomes Going for Growth 2019 reform priorities across main policy areas

Note: Blue colour indicates priorities primarily targeting labour productivity, green colour indicates priorities primarily targeting labour utilisation. This distinction is only approximate, as many priority areas, e.g. education, can impact both labour productivity and labour utilisation.

6


Key recommendations in product market regulation, competition and trade and FDI openness

7


Key recommendations in skills and education

8


Key recommendations in labour market policies (I)

9


Key recommendations in labour market policies (II)

10


Key recommendations in provision of infrastructure Infrastructure

11


Gains in growth comes with an environmental burden Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase Greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion (Mt of CO2 equivalent)

25000

Emerging-market economies

20000 Advanced economies 15000

10000

5000

0

1990

2000

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Database.

2005

2010

2012

2015

12


Growth has to be environmentally sustainable Countries with green growth priorities and recommendations in Going for Growth 2019

Note: see Going for Growth 2019, Chapter 3 for details.

13


The time for reform is now, for better lives and for future generations! Thank you!

http://oe.cd/gfg

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Profile for OECD

Presentation of Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2019  

Presentation of Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2019