Economic Survey of Denmark 2024 - Presentation

OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF Reforms to sustain resilience and high living standards Copenhagen 9 January 2024 oe.cd/denmark OECDEconomy OECD

Real GDP Index 2019 first quarter = 100 110

105

100 Denmark

95

Denmark excluding pharmaceuticals

OECD

90

85

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023 2

Headline inflation %

Core inflation %

12

12 Denmark

OECD

Denmark

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

0

2018

2019

2020

OECD

2021

2022

2023

3

2022

2023

2024

2025

Real GDP growth, %

2.7

1.3

1.2

1.5

Headline inflation, %

7.7

3.6

2.8

2.5

Core inflation, %

4.0

4.5

3.2

2.5

5

Gross public debt, Maastricht criterion % of GDP, 2022 180 160 140 120 100

80 60 40 20 0

EST LUX DNK SWE LTU LVA CZE IRL POL NLD SVK DEU SVN FIN HUN AUT EU BEL FRA ESP PRT ITA GRC

6

Change in ageing costs from 2025 % of GDP 4 Public pensions

Health and long-term care

Education

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

7

Current and future effective retirement age of men Years 74

Current effective retirement age

Retirement age for a person who entered the labour force at age 22 in 2020

72 70 68 66 64 62

DNK

ITA

EST

NLD

PRT

FIN

USA

NOR

ISR

ISL

GBR

DEU

BEL

AUS

OECD

IRL

GRC

FRA

TUR

POL

LTU

HUN

ESP

CZE

CHL

CAN

AUT

SVK

SVN

58

LUX

60

8

Decentralisation of long-term care expenditure Share of local and state governments in public long-term care expenditure, 2019 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

DNK

ITA

CHE

SWE

ESP

AUS

FIN

NOR

CZE

EST

LVA

BEL

SVN

NLD

ISR

GBR

SVK

FRA

ISL

LUX

HUN

GRC

CRI

0

IRL

10

10

Labour shortages % of Danish firms reporting shortages of labour as the main factor limiting their business 60 Services

Construction

Manufacturing

50 40

30 20 10 0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

11

Usual weekly working hours, dependent full-time employment 2022 42 Women

41

Men

40 39 38

37 36 35 34 33

Denmark

Nordics

EU

OECD

12

0

COL CHL CRI MEX EST KOR CHE JPN POL CZE USA ESP IRL SWE SVK NZL OECD ISR GBR FRA TUR GRC LVA HUN PRT NOR SVN CAN AUS ISL DNK ITA LUX LTU AUT DEU FIN NLD BEL

Net marginal tax rates on personal income % of gross wage earnings, 2021

60

50

40

30

20

10

13

Employment growth and contribution of migrants 6

Contribution of first and second-generation immigrants (% points)

5

Employment growth (year-over-year % changes)

4

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

14

Share of foreign-born workers %, 2021 80

Long-term care workers

70

All workers

60

50 40 30 20

ISR

LUX

CHE

SWE

CAN

AUT

NZL

AUS

ITA

NOR

ESP

OECD23

GBR

USA

DEU

IRL

ISL

BEL

FRA

NLD

FIN

DNK

SVN

0

CZE

10

15

Average age of first graduation of those under 30-years-old Years, 2021 Upper secondary general education 23

22

22

21

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

17

17

16

16

JPN ISR GBR KOR AUT SWE BEL ITA NLD ESP OECD CZE CHE FIN NZL NOR DEU DNK

23

NLD JPN GBR ISR USA IRL NZL ESP AUT SWE KOR OECD BEL NOR DNK DEU ITA FIN CHE CZE

Upper secondary vocational education

16

0

CAN IRL NZL AUS ISL KOR DNK JPN LTU ESP GRC EST CHL COL DEU SWE CRI GBR OECD FRA PRT MEX LVA ISR TUR FIN NOR HUN ITA BEL NLD LUX POL CHE SVN SVK AUT CZE

Share of upper secondary students enrolled in vocational programmes % of 15-19-year-olds, 2021

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

17

18

Trade balance % of GDP 14 Sea transport services

12

Other services

Goods

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

19

0-5-year-old firms % of employment, 2018-20 25

20

15

10

5

0

CHE DEU NOR AUT DNK FIN LUX SWE BEL NLD CZE SVN ITA FRA ISL EST ESP HUN POL GRC LTU LVA PRT SVK

20

Share of enterprises using at least one Artificial Intelligence technology %, 2021 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

GRC TUR EST POL HUN LVA CZE LTU SVK ITA FRA ESP EU IRL AUT SWE BEL DEU NOR SVN LUX NLD FIN PRT DNK 21

Greenhouse gas emissions Carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, Million tons 100

Targets Climate Status and Outlook 2023

80

New government's targets

60 40 20 0 -20 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

22

OECDEconomy OECD

oe.cd/denmark

23