Full implementation of the fiscal rule is key

Note: The chart depicts central government public debt. The “Current government fiscal plans” scenario assumes GDP growth as in table 1.1 until 2023, with a gradual transition to OECD long-term model estimates of potential output thereafter. Inflation is projected as in table 1.1 until 2023 and a gradual convergence to 3% thereafter. Fiscal assumptions are those outlined in table 1.3 and remain constant until 2028 when aging costs, in the form of higher pensions and health costs, will gradually start to kick. The “Ambitious reforms“ scenario assumes the implementation of reforms described in Figure 1.2. Both “Current government fiscal plans” and “Ambitious reforms” scenarios assume full implementation of the fiscal rule. The scenario “Spending growing above the limits established by the fiscal rule” assumes that primary spending is 1% of GDP higher than in current government fiscal plans and that revenues remain as in current government fiscal plans. In the