‘LOOKING’ FORWARD

The transformational nature of the OOI strategies showed considerable promise during the very early discussions of the elements that have evolved into the NSF’s full OOI program. Community planning was well-underway by the mid-1990’s. Work on the initial OOI Science Plan began in the 2001-02 time frame. Funds for OOI finally arrived in 2009, and deployment of the OOI components was completed by 2015. This document is the third Science plan (OOISP3) produced for the Initiative. It is an exciting, powerfully articulated blue-print for evolving use of the key infrastructural elements underpinning a forward-looking perspective on research/ educational programs developed since completion of OOI construction. At the outset of the OOI, the nominal lifetime for operation of OOI infrastructure was to be 25 years.

With the successes over the past two to three decades of the Argo Float Program, Ocean Obs, various Glider Programs, and operating OOI frameworks, it is clear that there has been a significant shift toward ocean observing programs that complement ship-based research in our community, with measurements acquired by semiautonomous mobile and fixed sensing platforms, all using some level of regular data transmission throughout the deployment. Given this multidecade progress, it is appropriate to muse on the future of a comparable duration, for which we can imagine evolving ocean science opportunities and alternative pathways. I am offering a slightly modified version of a conventional Forward by appending (in small letters) the word “looking” to an otherwise simple title.

Several engaging and potentially important developments in our greater Ocean Sciences Community are emerging in the approximate timeframe of the release of OOI-SP3. For example, the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainability (2021-2030) will be a major international opportunity to attract novel, bold collaborative efforts to push forward on many frontiers related to ocean investigations (https://www.youtube. com/watch?v=_F5g9uZv6YI). The Ocean Studies Board, of the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, is encouraging submission of transformative, multi-disciplinary ideas, “Ocean-Shots,” that will address scientific challenges for reaching Decade goals (https://www. nationalacademies.org/our-work/us-nationalcommittee-on-ocean-science-for-sustainabledevelopment-2021-2030). Selected “Ocean-Shots” will be featured in special webinars to provide a platform for sharing and aligning innovative research ideas across our overall ocean science community.

One aspect of “Next Generation” Ocean Science will no doubt involve increasingly pervasive efforts to fully assess the characteristics and dynamic behavior of Marine Ecosystems, because they underpin most global, regional and local environmental “eco-services” provided to human beings by our planetary ocean. These oceanic ecosystems involve major, complex, interactions that buffer environments we depend upon for, among other things, absorbing greenhouse gases, and releasing significant oxygen into the atmosphere. To be fully understood, because the interactions are changing constantly, these systems must be studied from within the actual environment using a combination of real-time mobile sensing of many parameters, rapid communication, and comprehensive modeling for both assimilation and ultimate prediction.

We should not be shy about thinking boldly -

especially if we wish to foster engagement by new groups of philanthropists, as well as established national and international funding agencies. Within the same process, we must encourage new generations of diverse, early- and pre-career individuals to help pioneer increasingly wise uses of the oceans for the long term. Such partnerships, building on ocean science successes, can promote, perhaps accelerate, a host of challenging scientific, technological, and policy innovations focused on expanding human efforts to more fully understand the bounds of oceanic resiliency.

A very different additional suite of opportunities may be arising from the space program. Beyond Earth, at least four other bodies in the solar system harbor significant concentrations of fluid, either water or hydrocarbons. As a global society, we are on the threshold of exploring some of those bodies of water directly. The best place to develop and thoroughly test the autonomous robotic-sensor systems that will be needed for such exploration is at selected sites within our own ocean. We ocean scientists must work closely with Space Scientists to ensure success in the searches that may lead to discovery of life beyond earth The NASA Road Map to Ocean Worlds: https://www.liebertpub. com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2018.1955.

Indeed, partly because of our evolving infrastructural asset base, improved understanding of the complex interplays among myriad components and processes that constitute a wide array of ever-changing marine eco-subsystems may lie just within our grasp during this coming decade. Part of the solution to that challenge will be to routinely “be there, without being there”. By this, I mean that the key to major progress requires developing the ability to collect many tens of observations and measurements per second from hundreds of sensor arrays mounted on swarms of highly intelligent mobile platforms and arrays of fixed vertical-profiling platforms operating within nested scales over seconds-to-decades and ranging from sub-mm to kilometers.

As daunting as that sounds, a third emergent development over the past few decades, exponential change in developmental progress, may ease the transition to these cutting-edge sensing systems that must ultimately be able to communicate all data in virtual real-time to interconnected data hubs serving our global community, while supporting continuously operating models of entire ecosystems of interest. This, of course, is a major challenge, but additional, multiple factors that, at times, are overlooked in our community, should be viewed as significant sources of encouragement. Recall, for example, the Human Genome Project was to take 30+ years to complete; it happened much faster because of focused and recursively reinforcing technological innovations. Based on a number of similar examples, in the early 2000’s, Ray Kurzweil hypothesized a ‘Law of Accelerating Returns’, (https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-ofaccelerating-returns)

Most of us still think linearly, yet much of the world around us is changing in non-linear ways that can be both positive and negative. The classic example of Moore’s Law is well-worn. But in the last three decades, unprecedented advancements in big data mining and synthesis, genomic assessment, bioengineering, sensor-development, machine learning/artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, robotic swarms, high-bandwidth communications, and high resolution systems-modeling, are some of the rapidly evolving tools we have at our disposal in considering a decadal-scale period of focused progress in Ocean Sciences.

Assuming that similar patterns of technological innovation as those involved in accelerating the Genome Project will enhance the abilities of a diverse, inventive ocean community, then a very important factor to consider in terms of planning and goal setting on decadal scales, is the potential power of recursive exponential enhancement of our collective capabilities to conduct sophisticated realtime investigations and experiments throughout entire volumes of the ocean without the need for human presence. Modeling the processes and results could ultimately culminate in predictive assessments of ocean futures.

According to an ancient Chinese proverb: “Times of chaos are times of opportunity”. For the OOI program, and Ocean Sciences in general, in

order to grow and evolve in our current challenging, and rapidly changing, world, we, as part of the Ocean community, must be engaged in pursuing real-time science throughout entire oceanic subsystems. We should make concerted efforts to be well ahead of the curve by preparing for moments when significant opportunities arise. One approach to that philosophy might include a series of regular - annual? - gatherings via electronic conferencing, to explore and foster powerful community-wide themes with transformational potential. One idea would be to hatch bold ideas and plans that could be viewed as ready to evolve rapidly, so that the community is prepared when difficult times change. Resources, and/or societal awareness levels, may shift suddenly to provide opportunities we can take advantage of with well-thought-out plans, when the time is right.

Another reason for adopting such an approach is that we must constantly be building a broader, more inclusive, and more youthful community with the potential of carrying forward multiple challenging long-term projects in the oceans when opportunities arise. The experience we have all had with the pandemic has introduced our community to the power of remote conferencing, as a routine mechanism for community innovation that does not require extensive/expensive travel, or major investment of time. The idea of developing a much more vigorous, well-connected international community is likely to offer a myriad of attractive opportunities to a wide range of early and precareer investigators, who care deeply about how we come to understand enough to secure a sustainable planetary life-support system -The Ocean- for the future they will help craft.

Finally, we might consider launching an ocean- wide theme of crowd-sourcing scientific aspects of our growing real-time efforts, similar to the way NASA did with their Galaxy Zoo concept. For example, development of a Digital Twin Ocean System could offer many engaging aspects of community interest ranging across our entire field, and capture public participation at the same time.

John R. Delaney University of Washington

FIGURE A. A Regional Cabled Array instrumented Deep Profiler deployed off the fan tail of R/V Thomas G. Thompson during the 85-day 2014 installation cruise led by Chief Scientist John R. Delaney, University of Washington. Credit: M. Elend, University of Washington, V14.