The Horizon 2045 Systems Map

Consequences/Harms

External Dynamics

Nuclear Weapons System Dynamics

“This is a completely new way of conceiving the nuclear threat. Trying to understand a system at the meta level and what’s driving actors in the system is totally new.”

The nuclear weapon system is sprawling and secretive, maintaining itself and resisting change through a complex set of dynamics. We’ve used causal loop diagramming—a mapping tool that helps visualize complex systems and how different variables within these systems interrelate—to create a representation of the present system. We understand the Horizon 2045 systems map11 to be the first and only map of the behaviors and mental models that underpin the nuclear weapons system. As one nuclear expert put it: “This is a completely new way of conceiving the nuclear threat.

Trying to understand a system at the meta level and what’s driving actors in the system is totally new.”

The Horizon 2045 systems map (shown without its full detail above) creates a “topview” of the current state, depicting the dynamics, mental models, and behaviors that are driving the status quo. It also reveals the system’s frailties and leverage points. The map provides various ways to enter into and think about the system depending on interest and orientation. For instance, a scholar of political power dynamics might be drawn to enter the map

Beliefs About Nuclear Weapons through one node while nuclear deterrence advocates might enter through another, but each would quickly find their way to other countervailing dynamics and interests. Funders might use the map to identify areas of underinvestment, while innovators could use it to pinpoint opportunities to drive novel forms of impact. In this way, the map has wide application but also draws various users into shared conversation about the system and its dynamics.

The map itself is a work in progress. The Horizon 2045 team continues to rigorously test the map with diverse audiences, using feedback and insight from those sessions to refine and improve both the configuration of the map and the stories and strategies that we see emerging from it.