INSIGHTS NOW What effect did the recession in 2008 have on participation?

HOW THE 2008–09 RECESSION

IMPACTED SPORTS PARTICIPATION

With the recent increase in interest rates and more economists anticipating an economic recession in 2023, one question that arises in our industry is “what will happen to sports participation?” Because NSGA has tracked sports participation for more than 35 years using consistent methodology throughout, we can look at the last recession (defined as 2008–2009 for purposes of this article) to gain insights into the future. If the recession had a significant impact, we would expect to see sharp declines for the years the recession occurred (2008-2009) followed by a bounce back once the period ended. When plotted on a chart over time, the data for these years would resemble a “V” shape. On a high level, we can use NSGA’s Total Participation Points (TPPs) metric to analyze participation among specific segments tracked by NSGA. With TPPs, one point is given for each sport a person participates in during a given year. This offers a more complete view of participation because both the number of people participating in each sport segment (reach) and the number of sports each person is participating in (depth) are considered. Looking at the data over multiple years is also important when identifying trends. For this analysis, we will include data from 2004-2013, giving us 4 years before and after the 2008-09 recession. As shown in Figure 1, the years during the recession were part of larger trends the segments were experiencing during this period. The changes in participation during these two years were not abnormal or out of the ordinary and for the most part follow along the dotted trendline. The fitness segment saw participation increase during both recession years, following along with the larger trend of steady participation increases during the full 10 years. The changes in participation for the individual, team and wheel segments during 2008-09 also go along with the longer-term trends of declines in participation over that decade.

FIGURE 2

FIGURE 1

BY NICK RIGITANO

NSGA DIRECTOR OF INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS

As we get more granular, a similar theme takes shape for the selected sports shown in Figure 2. The recession figures for running/jogging, golf, and soccer follow the 10-year trendlines for their respective sports. The remaining sports deviate slightly during the recession years, but the changes are within the range of other non-recession years. Based on the data, it appears the 2008-2009 recession itself did not have a significant impact on sports participation. The changes incurred during these years were part of longer-term trends and there are a variety of factors that influence changes in sports participation. Because different factors have different levels of influence for each individual participant, it is important for our industry to take a combination of them into account when developing programs and creating opportunities for involvement.