mozambique

In 2020, Mozambique saw its first economic contraction in nearly three decades, due to the COVID-19 pandemic that hit hard in services and the extractive industry. After the impact of the pandemic crisis, the country resumed its growth path, recording a 2.3% growth rate in 2021, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 3.7% in 2022, 4.9% in 2023 and 8.2% in 2024, sustained by the contributions of agriculture, services and transport. The extractive industry also contributed to this effect, with the recovery of coal and aluminium production, with exports increasing significantly after the end of the COVID-19 restrictions, and benefiting in parallel from the start of natural gas exploration through the Coral Sul floating platform.

With regard to inflation, there was an increase from 5.7% in 2021 to 11.3% in 2022, due to the rise in oil prices on the international markets, which led the national regulator to increase domestic fuel prices several times, and, on the other hand, the worsening of food prices penalised by the adverse weather conditions at the start of the year.

On the other hand, the stabilisation of the Metical has helped dampen the upward pressure on inflation.

Despite the good prospects for the country, the main risks pointed out for the consolidation of this trajectory are the expressive climatic shocks affecting the territory, the strong dependence on some commodities, military unrest in the centre and north of the country and a scenario of greater currency devaluation (which would add additional pressure on prices).