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able trails on the state’s busiest peaks. It owns a bunch of mining claims flanking Mount Shavano and its own lawyers worked hard to script warning signs that help hikers recognize the dangers on the trail. “It’s all about finding a good balance. How do we adequately inform the recreating public of the hazards involved? Landowners can’t be up there at 14,000 feet every single day of the year so let’s fine tune our obligation to inform,” said Athearn, who is working with Baisley and landowners to help craft the new legislation. “Landowners should feel protected when people go through their land to access some of the state’s recreational attractions. We all benefit when the landowner is protected.” Kendall Chastain, the conservation manager for the Colorado Mountain Club who works with landowners to allow recreational access, hopes the legislation will spur more property owners to open their acres to the public. There may be owners out there who have never consid-

February 15, 2023 ered welcoming visitors, she said. “There’s a woman we have been working with who has a little pond on her property and she told us if this goes through she will have much less concern with people visiting her pond and crossing through her property to reach public lands,” Chastain said. “I bet there are more people out there like her.” One sticking point in the current recreational use statute is that it lumps almost all forms of recreation into the same group. That means landowners have limited ability to restrict certain types of recreation that may not work on their property, like, say, motorized users or people panning for gold. Proposed changes in the law would give property owners greater leeway in choosing which type of recreation best fits on their land, Chastain said. “It does not make sense for some of these properties that everything goes,” she said. There are many little discrepancies that are being addressed in the proposed legislative adjustment to the recreational use statute.

“There are a lot more voices being heard and concerns are being expressed more clearly and more urgently than in years past,” Chastain said. “We have a lot of strong support for this across many communities.” In 2019, legislation proposed by then-Representative Perry Will, a Republican from New Castle, and then-Representative Donald Valdez, a La Jara Democrat, would have removed the willful and malicious exception from the state’s recreational use statute. It died in the House Judiciary Committee mere days after it was introduced. Most advocates for reform of the recreational use statute expect trial lawyers to lobby against any changes. Colorado state Senator Dylan Roberts, an Avon Democrat, said amending the statute “would definitely still be a very controversial topic at the legislature.” Baisley said he’s held meetings with local communities, trail groups and landowners and sees growing consensus. He expects many lawmakers will step forward to co-sponsor his bill.

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BY JIM ELLIS / THE ELLIS INSIGHT

he most interesting impending Senate race to date is unfolding in Arizona, and a new poll already suggests the close three-way finish that many are predicting will occur in November of 2024. Senator Kyrsten Sinema leaving the Democratic Party to run as an Independent is likely her best scenario in which to win re-election. It was clear that she could not secure re-nomination in the Democratic Party, especially against a strong opponent such as Representative Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who has since become an official candidate. The Republican situation is unclear, but the Arizona GOP will produce a nominee capable of at least securing the Republican base vote. In a three-way race where all the major participants have a victory path, virtually any outcome can occur under yet-to-be-defined circumstances. The Normington Petts survey research firm recently conducted a poll (1/18-23; 800 AZ registered voters) for three progressive left Arizona organizations testing Representative Gallego opposite Senator Sinema, and both 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who has not closed the door on running for the Senate, and former Governor Doug Ducey (R), who says a Senate race is not even a point under his consideration. While the poll sponsors were highlighting Gallego’s performance, it is Sinema’s standing that has greatly improved since previous polls were made public. In the configuration with Representative Gallego and Ms. Lake, Senator Sinema, while still running in third place, improves her standing to 24 percent as opposed to 14 and 13 percent in December and early January polls that Public Policy Polling and Blueprint Polling released. Representative Gallego and Ms. Lake were tied at 36

percent apiece. When Normington Petts tested Senator Sinema with Representative Gallego and former Governor Ducey, the Congressman held a 37-3127 percent advantage over the GOP ex-state chief executive, and Senator Sinema, respectively. Notably, the progression suggests that Senator Sinema is coming into a competitive position as the prospective candidates begin to prepare for a long three-way race. Senator Sinema has not yet announced that she will seek re-election, but her change of partisan status to Independent is a strong clue that she will run. Otherwise, there was little reason for her to leave the Democratic Party since her ideology and vote pattern continues to remain consistent with her liberal roots. The earlier polls, while possibly accurate at the time they were conducted, did not accurately portray Sinema’s underlying strength. It was difficult to believe that she had dropped to low double-digit support based upon her reasoning for making procedural moves within the Senate surrounding protecting the filibuster and opposing one of the major spending and tax measures. As the campaign progresses, we will likely see Gallego move further to the left because he will need strong energized support from the Democratic base. Sinema’s gain in the Normington Petts survey when compared to the PPP and Blueprint earlier studies is largely coming from Democrats who previously supported her. Therefore, Gallego, assuming he doesn’t receive a major challenge for the party nomination in August of 2024, will have no choice but to strengthen his position with the far left in order to maximize turnout within this electoral segment. Remember, in this type of election campaign, the three major candidates will be vying to get to 35 percent of the vote, and not 50 percent. Therefore, each political strategy will be

very different than we typically see in a regular two-way electoral contest. Representative Gallego moving further left, however, also becomes a double-edged sword. The further he ventures potentially frees additional moderate Democratic support to float to Sinema. This and improving her positioning within the self-identified Independent sector, which in Arizona is a full third of the electorate, would bring her into parity with the two major party candidates. For the Republicans, speculation about the leadership attempting to recruit freshman Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) into the Senate race is beginning to surface. With his tight victory in the politically marginal 6th District against a strong Democratic opponent and his potential appeal within the statewide Hispanic community, Representative Ciscomani would certainly be a Republican candidate who could win a general election in a three-way scenario. It remains to be seen if he would risk the congressional seat he just won to attempt a statewide run so quickly. Former gubernatorial candidate Lake may become a candidate, but if the party leaders can clear the field for Ciscomani, he would likely be the premier contender that the GOP could field. There are many moving parts in this early jockeying period from the Grand Canyon State. The most recent survey proves not that Representative Gallego is in the strongest position, as the poll sponsors promote, but that Senator Sinema is coming back into play as a potential winning candidate. The Republican saga, however, will require much more time to settle.

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