Futures

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Content: Pages 3-5,

Pages 6-9,

Glacial Geoengineering by Amélie

Personalised medicine: the power of genomics by Sophia(20th December 2022)

Pages 10,

Using blockchain to track supply chains

by Vidya

Pages 11-13,

Social media platforms’ relationship with users by by Hiral

Edited by

Vidya and Hiral

Overseen by

Ms Timm

Illustration by

Hiral

Our writers have worked very hard writing about some of their interests, we hope you enjoy reading it!

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Glacial Geoengineering Amélie Geoengineering is defined as ‘the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change’, and is broadly divided into two different types: • Solar radiation management: albedo enhancement, stratospheric aerosols, space reflectors • Greenhouse gas removal: afforestation, carbon capture, ocean alkalinity enhancement, enhanced weathering (Oxford Geoengineering Program, 2018)

Glacial geoengineering does not fall into either category, and is rather unusual in that it can be targeted to a specific area, compared with most other strategies such as albedo enhancement – increasing the ability of the Earth’s surface to reflect light – which would be implemented on a global scale.

Between 1979 and 2018, the extent of Arctic sea ice has decreased for all months of the year, and all ice sheets and glaciers have lost mass. This loss of ice has accelerated sea level rise, and could increase the risk of flooding globally. Additionally, ice flow and retreat has accelerated in Antarctica, which may be irreversible as glacier movement is typically in one direction (Pörtner, et al., 2019). Slowing the rate of glacial melt and flow could occur in several ways: warm ocean water could be blocked from reaching the glaciers’ bases, glacier beds could be dried by removing or freezing the layer of water they slide on, or by buttressing ice shelves on artificial islands when they start to float in the sea (Fuller-Wright, 2018). Due to the scale of these techniques, as well as the remote locations in which they would be enacted, the development of glacial geoengineering is fairly recent.

Figure 1 (Moore, et al., 2018)

4 One of the approaches suggested by a team of researchers, led by Michael Wolovick, is to reduce MISI (marine ice sheet instability), a dynamic feedback loop which can cause an ice sheet to collapse if it is located on a bed that slopes down towards the centre of the sheet. As warm ocean waters melt the ice along the grounding line, or the point where the ice lifts off the bedrock onto the ocean, the ice flow increases. This causes further grounding line retreat and therefore the ice sheet shrinks. To tackle this, an artificial sill could be built on the ocean floor, which would block warm water and reduce the melting rate. The sill could additionally provide physical buttressing if the ice shelf were to float and ground itself on it (Wolovick & Moore, 2018).

Modelling was carried out on the Thwaites glacier in Antarctica, where it is suspected that MISI has already begun. The larger sill was shown to successfully re-ground the ice shelf 100% of the time, with a smaller sill that blocked half of the warm water succeeding 70% of the time (Figure 2).

An alternative could be the use of isolated artificial islands, or pinning points, which would only provide buttressing points for the ice shelf, although according to modelling these were only successful in 30% of scenarios. This is because the thin ice shelf floated above the pinning points in certain scenarios (Wolovick & Moore, 2018).

Another glacier at risk of MISI is the Jakobshavn glacier in Western Greenland, which has also been considered as a candidate for geoengineering proposals.

A 100m high wall with sloping sides could be built across the 5km fjord in front of glacier by dredging approximately 0.1 km3 of gravel and sand from Greenland’s continental shelf, ten times less material than was excavated to build the Suez Canal (Moore, et al., 2018).

Figure 2 (Wolovick & Moore, 2018)

5 Without investments in dikes, levees and coastal walls, a sea level rise of 0.6– 1.2 m in 2100 could produce approximately $US 50 trillion per year in economic losses, therefore tackling glacial melt is essential. Although geoengineering is far from implementation, its promise is cost-competitive, given that China’s Three Gorges Dam, a civil engineering project of a similar scale, cost $US 33 billion (Moore, et al., 2018). However, geoengineering will require global consent, as Antarctica is governed by the Antarctic Treaty, and a number of countries carry out research on the continent. Moreover, if CO2 emissions continue to rise, preserving glaciers will only help to slow sea level rise and allow more time for adaptation.

Amélie

6 Personalised medicine: the power of genomics Sophia (20th December 2022)

An individual’s genome dictates the chemical makeup of every part of their body, from the proteins that determine physical characteristics, such as eye colour (from the OCA2 genei), to one’s risk of developing a specific type of cancerii. Every genome is unique, thus how can we prescribe the same medicines, with the same dosages to groups of people with entirely different genetic codes and expect the same result?

Why personalised medicine?

Personalised medicine is currently attempting to combat this and improve our current medical situation which attacks the consequence of an illness, rather than the cause. Personalised medicine relies on the sequencing of an individual’s genome, something unheard of to most at present, however estimated, by the 2030s, to be as common as the practice of taking blood testsiii. By sequencing one’s genetic code, we can identify specific genes that have strong links with causing mutations in protein formation, or genes that put a patient more at risk of various conditions, using software to analyse large data sets. Therefore, medical professionals have the ability to identify an issue quickly and attack the root of the problem, before it develops into something untreatable. This, of course, has positive knock-on effects on medical organisations, such as the NHS, which are so overwhelmed due to this delay in treatment. For example, data from October 2022 shows that there were 2.91 million patients waiting over 18 weeks for treatmentiv, something that causes fatalities alongside urgent, also possibly fatal, necessary surgeries or treatment due to these severe waiting list times.

Where does future technology play into personalised medicine?

This huge focus on genomics introduces new issues surrounding having large data sets which must be analysed and developed into something tangible that a scientist or doctor can use. The development of artificial intelligence and ‘cloud computingv’ at present, and in the future, is something that must work hand-in-hand with personalising treatments for patients. The ability of technology to sort this data and pick out mutated genes, for instance, or certain sequences that have strong links to risk of an affliction, is necessary as we move away from human-steered analysis to automated processes, such as ones executed by AI machines, which require little to no human intervention.

7 ‘Cloud computing’ has already been implemented in various projects, such as the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC), the Cancer Genomics Cloud (CGC), and the Encyclopaedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE and modENCODE)vi . It also provides a cheaper method of collecting and organising genetic data, just as Google Cloud Platform showed, which used over 12,000 RNA-seq samples from large cancer projects with a cost of $0.09 per samplevii, an incredible low sum for something as significant in medicine as genomics. AI can incorporate data from a variety of sources, spanning multiple projects, data sets and information, whilst maintaining this low cost for a huge benefit.

With technology such as smart watches (Apple watches, Fitbits etc) making data sharing even more common, technological advances in the field of medicine also allow for a greater empowerment of the individual in knowing what exactly is occurring within one’s body in real time.

‘Biomarker technologyviii is already widespread, thus in the future, ‘genomic risk profiles’ can be created with ease, allowing the individual to ascertain their risk of different diseases, letting an individual take on responsibility for incorporating preventative measures in their day-today.

Thus the development of more accurate technology, with greater ability to analyse data and present them in an accessible way will allow for even more personalised medical help for the individual, without huge cost – neither monetary cost nor the cost of time.

The importance of genomics in drug development and administration Gene sequencing not only leads to early diagnosis and risk analysis but also affects drug development, with personalised medicine influencing prescription of certain drugs to certain people with certain genes (or gene patterns). Anticipating a patient’s response to a certain drug was deemed impossible, however with genomics, the efficacy of a type of drug can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. For example, some patients experience hypersensitivity reactions during abacavir therapy. A study showed a genetic linkage between hypersensitivity and the allele HLA-B*57:01.ix , causing the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency to incorporate the requirement to have gene testing prior to abacavir therapy to ensure response to it by the individual patients with the allele would be mild.

8 This could be a huge breakthrough for the future of drug administration, in which pharmacies carry this individual data and can prescribe a more specialised medicine with greater predicted success in the bodily response. Furthermore, beyond human intervention in prescribing treatment, AI will play a greater role in medicine in the future, reducing some of the devastating pressure on medical care systems like ours (the NHS). Multiple human appointments will not be required for mild cases, but rather quick interactions with AI technology will be able to give highly specific advice for the individual and increase efficiency of diagnosis and then treatment.

An example of this in the present day is evident through the work of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), who corroborate that AI and other intelligent technologies “have the potential to transform health care by deriving new and important insights from the vast amount of data generated during the delivery of health care every day”x, however we have not seen a substantial manifestation of this in a healthcare system around the world yet.

To conclude, it is clear that genomics is an invaluable tool that we hope to see in future practices in medicine, be it drug development or administration, or a greater emphasis on the individual’s role and control over understanding their own body. Technology is vital in pushing for progress in this field, and should work symbiotically with scientists, relieving some of the burdens by automating certain processes or even tackling issues itself, with little necessity for human intervention. By sequencing one’s genome, it allows us to better understand the human body, on a global, extended level as well as on an individual’s level, expanding our data set and thus facilitating cheaper, quicker, more effective treatment.

Sophia (20th December 2022) i.

https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/eyecolor/#:~ :text=The%20protein%20produced%20from%20the,is%20present% 20in%20the%20iris.

ii.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00845-4

iii.

https://www.economist.com/technologyquarterly/2020/03/12/medicine-is-getting-to-grips-withindividuality

iv.

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-andworkforce/pressures/nhs-backlog-data-analysis

v.

https://www.economist.com/technologyquarterly/2020/03/12/medicine-is-getting-to-grips-withindividuality

vi.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6452449/

vii. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6452449/ viii. https://translationalmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-020-02316-w ix.

https://www.jpbsonline.org/article.asp?issn=09757406;year=2015;volume=7;issue=3;spage=239;epage=244;aulast=Ag yeman

x.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-devicesamd/artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-software-medicaldevice

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Using blockchain to track supply chains

Christmas and New Year is when we buy lots of presents. We see many companies offering “sales promotions” for various items during boxing day and the days following. The main drivers of peoples’ choice include price, brand and utility. Brands communicate the benefits of the product to the consumer, but they seldom focus on the costs and consequences to the people in the supply chain. In the news, you might have heard about an apparel brand that was blamed to have side-stepped the issue of uninhabitable working conditions in their factories. It is impossible to know what happened in those factories and what decisions were made by the managers. It would be of great use for consumers to know in intricate detail about the components that make up a product. If such a tool is used properly by the brands it would go a long way in establishing a high degree of trust with the customers.

One such tool is a blockchain, which is a decentralised open database technology. This technology can be used to record details of how, where and when a product and its components are made.

Recently I came to know about a UK based company called Provenance, which empowers companies and their brands to bring transparency about the impact of the products they sell. If recording the details of each component while a product is being manufactured, is incontrovertible, by storing it in a blockchain, it is possible to avoid bad decisions because it will be openly visible. I liked this idea of using blockchain to build trust because the same method can be used to reduce corruption. This can be useful as a way of documenting how projects and tenders are bid when governments spend money on social welfare projects. Capitalism and market-based economics can shed its predatory aspects and focus on the good for a broader set of the population. This technology can also find use in reducing dangers of climate change by helping people avoid excess consumption and prevent energy wastage. Blockchain technologies can inspire people to buy the right products and use them efficiently.

Vidya

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Social media platforms’ relationship with users

by Hiral 11C

Instagram and TikTok use algorithms so tailor your feed specifically for you.

Algorithms in their simplest form: Algorithms are a set of rules that automatically order content on a platform according to how likely it is that the user will interact and like the content. They are different to each other depending on the platform but overall, they have similar properties.

Algorithms in a platform: All algorithms on social media platforms have ranking signals which are a set of factors that organise the content based on its value to the user.

This is mainly determined by previous interactions with the app, but sometimes it is linked to other factors for example, Instagram often tells the user why they are being shown the content, e.g., “’someone you follow’ liked this post”. The platforms do vary in their ranking signals: Instagram’s ranking signals: 1. If a brand wants to blow up on Instagram, they will need to respond to any follower interactions. This would help their content get out and increase the likelihood that their content gets seen.

2. Instagram has an emphasis on the contents’ relevance to trends, the time, and other factors 3. Therefore, an increase in popularity would depend on of the speed of interactions and to what level of engagement the users have with the content.

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TikTok’s ranking signals: These are partially based on previous interactions like most social media platforms They are also dependant on how the user uses the Discover tab, this is where the trending sounds, topics and captions are analysed Another ranking signal used is the idea that users are likely to prefer content from their own country and in their own language.

What sets TikTok’s ranking signals apart is that follower count for a user is not a ranking signal therefore everyone has a fair chance of becoming famous, not just the famous becoming more famous a. TikTok is designed to bring new content to the user’s phone

12 The future: When algorithms are used in the workplace, for example, to narrow down applicants through their CVs, biases can occur. Algorithms are seemingly very objective; however, studies do show that when many applications are looked at, certain groups of people are privileged over others. At Amazon, an AI system was used briefly, and it was found that women’s CVs were disregarded faster creating a gender bias. Some people are trying to use this algorithmic bias to their advantage and direct it to filter people with certain political views as there is a lot of psychological research behind the reasons for one’s beliefs.

Another issue that arises is that a user’s political views could be heightened due to their feed on social media platforms. Everyone’s political view and view of their country is different because each person gets a different combination of content. AI uses statistics to align commonly associated things whilst still trying to get the user to click on adverts to earn platforms money. For example, in America around the time of the election, social media can be used to severely sway people’s decisions which can obviously have a great deal of repercussions.

Research has been conducted to show that often in a large online political debate, there are some people who are swayed by what they read and there are some people called ‘motivational reasoners’ who stick to their pre-determined decision without being influenced by what they read. In every circumstance these ‘motivational reasoners’ come to monopolize the conversation and influence the other people. The thing is though, the ‘motivational reasoners’ tend to be algorithms. This means that algorithms are changing our beliefs, some would say that we are being brainwashed by algorithms.

However, algorithms on social media may not have that many practical uses, but they could help with safety and accuracy in the manufacturing industry, they could help with calculations in stocks etc.

Overall, these algorithms could make life a lot easier, but there is a discussion around them about their morality. Some believe that algorithms are an invasion of privacy, from the use of cookies tracking your every move on a website, collecting data, to give targeted adverts through to a for you page knowing your exact likes and dislikes. The number of times that a reel has come onto my FYP that relates to something that happened to me that day.

Personally, I believe that there’s no harm in having something track your likes and dislikes, almost all my ideas come from my FYP and I’m constantly seeing something I enjoy. This is what causes us all to become addicted, which is a separate issue, but if it is something we enjoy, then why push it away?

by Hiral

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Websites used: https://blog.hootsuite.com/social-media-algorithm/ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-022-00512-8 https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/09/02/social-mediaelection-bias-algorithms-diversity-column/2121233001/

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Thinking of writing for us but don’t know what to write about?

Here are some possible ideas for you:

• Developments in AI • futuristic cities • how future technology can help reveal aspects of the past • What do you think we should focus on in the future • If you could invest in any kind of research, what would you invest in?