Neo carbon energy – IMPACT AND RESULTS

IMPACT AND RESULTS

EMISSION-FREE FUTURE NOW AVAILABLE.

A WORLD ELECTRIFIED

BY SOLAR AND WIND

Neo-Carbon Energy is the largest renewable energy research in the Finnish history. We are creating a completely new energy system where the produced energy is emission-free, cost-effective and independent. We are solving renewable energy’s flexible use, storage and distribution. This will revolutionise the entire energy field. The project is carried out in cooperation with VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. neocarbonenergy.fi

facebook.com/neocarbonenergy @neocarbonenergy

/ THE THREE PILLARS OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM In transition to renewables – even before thinking the need for energy storages – one must consider how to electrify the main energy consuming sectors. As the movement of electrons is the form of primary energy in the neo-carbon energy system, we need so called bridging or neocarbonisation technologies linking the primary electricity production to the different forms of end use: heating, cooling, transportation and industrial processes.

Neocarbonisation means the utilisation of CO2 as a source of carbon for fuels, chemicals and materials.

Together with the internet of energy renewable energy production, bridging and energy storages enable the future energy system.

/ NEO-CARBON ENERGY VIDEO: FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM

To view the Neo-Carbon Energy video, click http://bit.ly/2ev4bm7 or use the Arilyn app.

Arilyn is an augmented reality app that transforms the physical world into a virtual experience.

Instructions: / Download the free Arilyn app from Google Play or Apple App Store on your mobile device / Open the app / Arilyn will launch the camera on your device and start ”scanning” / Scan the black NEO-CARBON ENERGY logo text / Enjoy the video!

/ GOOD LUCK TO HUMANKIND IN SAVING THE PLANET

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM WILL CHANGE THE WHOLE SOCIETY SOCIETY WILL AFFECT THE ENERGY SYSTEM FUTURE OF ENERGY

All social and economic transformations in human history are facilitated by new energy sources and means of communication. More energy enables more complex societies.

New communication technologies are needed to organise the increased complexity.

100 000–10 000 HUNTER-GATHERER SOCIETIES

10 000–1700 THE AGRICULTURAL SOCIETIES

1700–2000 THE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES

Energy: Domestication of fire, cooked meat - increase in brain size.

Communication: Spoken language Society: Organised tribes

Energy: Domestication of plants and animals Communication: Written language Society: Chiefdoms, kingdoms, city-states, empires, early nation-states

Energy: Fossil fuels, steam engine, combustion engine, electricity, nuclear Communication: Printed texts, radio and television, mass media, internet Society: Democracy, the welfare state, information society, globalisation

2000A FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION? A GLOBAL BRAIN? Energy: Renewables, smart grids Communication: Internet of everything, artificial intelligence Society: Peer-to-peer society of networked citizens, automation of both material and immaterial production

BY 2050 1. Energy will be an abundant resource - it will be aplenty, inexpensive and clean.

2. With the inexpensive clean energy, new things become possible - such as mass-scale automation of industries and services, and widespread use of artificial intelligences.

3. Citizens will become energy prosumers - energy producers as well as consumers.

Together with other technological developments this will increase their autonomy.

4. Citizens self-organise in peer-to-peer networks - producing their own energy, communicating with ubiquitous information and communication technologies, and utilising digital manufacturing technologies.

5. Visionary, transformational leadership and small-scale experiments hasten change to a new kind of energy system engaging all levels of society.

/ THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM WILL CHANGE THE WHOLE SOCIETY - SOCIETY WILL AFFECT THE ENERGY SYSTEM

FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF A RENEWABLE-POWERED SOCIETY IN 2050 To get a grasp of the societal changes towards a decentralised society, we need long-term perspectives, shared visions and new narratives. Four scenarios describe alternative futures of such a society. In all of the scenarios, the decentralised renewable energy system has lifted new players to a powerful position.

Radical Startups. Inexpensive renewable energy has leveled the playing field for startups and small and medium-sized companies. They realise peer-to-peer principles in their work. Startups are known for their culture, values, and bold aspirations, and many of them operate in the energy sector.

Consumers self-produce and trade a major part of their energy. Ubiquitous ICT and smart pricing enable significant volumes of real-time energy trade even between small-scale consumers and producers. Startups specialise in tailored energy services.

The energy system is highly decentralised.

Value-Driven Techemoths. Inexpensive energy has powered giant, global technology corporations.

Peer-to-peer models are practiced within these “techemoths�. They represent the Silicon Valley vision of emancipation, freedom, creativity and open source, but also have the power to dominate economy and culture.

Techemoths are deeply involved in energy technology research. They specialise in full-service products such as mobility services and zero-waste processes. Electricity is often free, but people pay for it by giving away their personal data.

Citizens are not committed by heart to energy: they assume energy issues are automated. Energy demand is high.

Green DIY Engineers. The world has been unable to cut the use of fossil fuels and faced an ecological collapse. Engineer-oriented citizens have organized themselves as local communities to survive. Renewable energy is produced locally. Nation-states and national cultures have withered away.

Extremely localised renewable energy makes communities self-sufficient and resilient. Engineers tinker with small-scale renewable energy systems in open source. Local democracy and information-sharing enforce a commitment to energy.

New Consciousness. Highly developed information and communication technologies, ecological values and decentralised renewables have transformed citizens' mindsets. People do not conceive themselves as profit-seeking individuals, but are deeply intertwined with other humans and nature. Societies collaborate openly and globally, and share energy, resources and information.

Energy is seen as sacred and its use is a deeply personal issue. Renewable energy is shared in a global supergrid. Energy consumption is high in a globally interconnected world, which involves transportation, travelling and highly sophisticated virtual realities. Ubiquitous artificial intelligences and blockchain transactions also use a lot of energy.

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2AlzlIi

CONTACT: sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi

/ TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM GLOBAL OVERVIEW WITH LUT ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION MODEL

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

The transition towards a 100% renewable power system is technically and economically feasible assuming current cost reduction trends.

70 €/MWh

100 Renewable energy share, %

65 60 55 50 45 40 35

50

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

0 2015

2020

2025

2030

Electricity generation

COST OF ELECTRICITY IN 2015: 70 €/MWh FOR FOSSIL BASED POWER SYSTEM

2035 Storage

2040

2045 Transmission

Curtailment

2050 Renewable energy share

COST OF ELECTRICITY IN 2050: 52 €/MWh FOR SUSTAINABLE POWER SYSTEM

100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM: KEY NUMBERS/FACTS 2015

2030

GENERATION CAPACITY

6.2 TW

16.1 TW

ANNUAL GENERATION

24 000 TWh

33 300 TWh

PV

Wind

Hydro

Bio

2050

Fossil

2015

2030

2050

28.7 TW

1.3 TWh

114 TWh

1050 TWh

STORAGE ENERGY CAPACITY

55 600 TWh

38 TWh

4 340 TWh

16 770 TWh

ANNUAL STORAGE THROUGHPUT

Nuclear

Other

The transition towards a sustainable electricity system will demand a radical transition of the power system.

The share of fossil and nuclear generation will drop from 78% in 2015 to 10% in 2030 and zero in 2050.

Wind and solar PV generation will become the backbone of the power system, covering 87% of electricity demand.

Battery

Power-to-gas

Pumped hydro storage

Energy storage technologies will become an inevitable part of the power system, both capacities and throughput of storage will increase hundredfold. More than a quarter of all electricity in the system will go through storage.

/ TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM

THE OPTIMAL DESIGN FOR A 100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM DEPENDS UPON LOCAL AVAILABILITY OF SOLAR, WIND AND HYDRO The future energy system will be very different from the present one. Some regions in the world will base the system on Hydro, some on Wind but most on solar PV generation. The power system in every region will be unique, optimised to benefit from locally available sustainable resources.

PV will become the main energy source in the Sun Belt with 22 TWp global capacity for the power sector.

Solar PV based system Wind turbines based system Hydro power based system Technologies mix based system

GLOBAL INVESTMENTS The peak of investments will be reached between 2020 and 2025, when more than 4 trillion Euros could be spent in 5 years.

During the 2020s annual investments should be around 875 bn€ - to replace existing fossil power plants.

Annual investments stabilise at a level around 600 bn€ a year.

5000

PV large PV prosumers Wind onshore

4000

Hydro Biomass, Waste Gas turbines

3000

Large battery Battery prosumers 2000

1000

0 2020

2030

2040

2050

Capital investments in new capacities [bn€]

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2neDngj

CONTACT: christian.breyer@lut.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ SIMULATION BRINGS A GLOBAL 100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM ALIVE FOR THE FIRST TIME THE INTERNET OF ENERGY TOOL is an award winning visualisation for the simulation of a global 100% renewable electricity system! The simulations have been carried out by the Solar Economy group at Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT within the Neo-Carbon Energy project.

With this tool one can explore for every hour of the year how a fully renewable electricity system would operate.

Explore online: www.neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/ The energy future is amazing!

THE GLOBAL INTERNET OF ENERGY MODEL visualises a 100 % renewable energy system for the electricity sector for the year 2030. The model visualises the entire world and structures it into 145 regions, which are further aggregated into nine major world regions.

With the simulation, anyone can explore what a renewable electricity system would look like. This is the first time scientists have been able to do this on a global scale.

The model is designed to find the most economical solution for a renewable electricity system. The model shows how the supply of electricity can be organised to cover the electricity demand for all hours of the year. This means that the best mix of renewable energy generation, storage and transmission components can be found to cover the electricity demand of all nine major regions in the world.

FEATURES / The visualisation of : 100% renewable electricity systems for all regions in the world / Area coverage: Europe, Eurasia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, India/SAARC, Northeast and Southeast Asia, North and South America / Three choices for electricity grid integration: Region, Country and Area-wide integration / Hourly: production, consumption, storage and electricity flows in the grid / Transparency: All results and publication available for download

/ SIMULATION BRINGS A GLOBAL 100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM ALIVE FOR THE FIRST TIME An example of a region with a high share of wind power / UK and Ireland: Hourly profiles for representative winter and summer weeks / Winter: most of electricity comes from wind turbines / Summer: PV Prosumers play an important role, utility-scale PV is not used

[GW] 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100

SUMMER

WINTER Generation

12

24

PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers Wind Hydro Biomass Battery discharge System Battery discharge Self-cons Gas turbines Other

[GW]

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

Consumption

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100

12

24

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

An example of a country with a high share of solar PV / Italy: Hourly profiles for representative winter and summer weeks / Solar PV, both prosumers and utility-scale play major roles in electricity supply / Solar energy stored in battery and pumped hydro storage and discharged overnight / Winter: the system is supported by wind, hydro power and non-fossil gas turbines [GW] 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100

12

24

PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers Wind Hydro Biomass Battery discharge System Battery discharge Self-cons Gas turbines Other

SUMMER

WINTER Generation

[GW]

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

Consumption

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100

12

24

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

An example of a country with a high share of hydro power / Sweden: Hourly profiles for representative winter and summer weeks / Winter: most of the electricity comes from hydro power plants and wind farms / Summer: PV Prosumers play an important role, utility-scale PV not highly relevant / Biomass and waste-to-energy plants act as balancing capacities

[GW]

WINTER Generation

SUMMER 40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5 0 -5

5 12

24

12

24

12

-10

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

0 -5

12

24

12

24

12

-10

-15

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

Power to Gas Battery charge System Battery charge Self-cons Other Curtailment Power demand

PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers Wind Hydro Biomass Battery discharge System Battery discharge Self-cons Gas turbines Other

[GW]

40

Power to Gas Battery charge System Battery charge Self-cons Other Curtailment Power demand

-40

Consumption

Power to Gas Battery charge System Battery charge Self-cons Other Curtailment Power demand

An example of a region with and without strong interconnection to neighbouring regions / / / /

UK and Ireland: Hourly profiles for Regions (left) and Area (right) scenarios A high share of wind generation, due to excellent wind conditions Strong interconnection to continental Europe leads to wind power export to continental Europe System flexibility is provided more by export than by local storage

[GW]

WINTER, WITH INTERCONNECTION

WINTER, WITHOUT INTERCONNECTION Generation

[GW]

120

120

100

100 80

80 60

60

40

40 20

20 0 -20

12

24

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

12

24

12

24

0 -20

12

24

12

24

12

24 12 24 HOUR OF THE DAY

12

24

-40

-40 -60

-60

-80

-80 -100

-100 -120

PV fixed-tilted PV single-axis PV prosumers Wind Hydro Biomass Battery discharge System Battery discharge Self-cons Gas turbines Other Import

Consumption

INTERNET OF ENERGY ONLINE TOOL RECEIVED THE ENERGY GLOBE NATIONAL AWARD FOR FINLAND IN 2017

-120

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2zPXwuN

12

24

12

24

Power to Gas Battery charge System Battery charge Self-cons Other Curtailment Power demand Export

CONTACT: christian.breyer@lut.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ TRANSITION TOWARDS A RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM GLOBAL OVERVIEW WITH TIMES-VTT ENERGY MODEL TWh 250 000

With assumed decreasing cost trends solar power will constitute 50% of primary energy in 2050, and renewable energy in total 85%.

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Hydro Solar Wind

200 000

Geothermal Agricultural biomass

70% decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions achieved in high renewable energy scenario (ALL) whereas businessas-usual scenario (BAU) content with 50% decrease.

150 000

Forest biomass Other bio based Oil products

100 000

Coal based fuels Natural gas

50 000

0

Nuclear

BAU ALL

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

150 000

BAU ALL

BAU ALL

Increasing use of electricity in the residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors of an energy system is a common trend on the path toward a global 100% renewable energy system.

Synthetic fuels such as hydrogen and methane gas produced with electricity largely replace fossil fuels in the industry and transport sectors.

100 000

Electricity demand on a global level in 2050 will surpass 100 000 TWh. 67% of electricity will be consumed in Asia. Industry and synthetic fuel production will consume 63% of electricity. 77% of power generation will be solar based, with merely 4% being combined heat and power (CHP) and other conventional power generation.

50 000

0

BAU ALL

GLOBAL ENERGY SOURCES

Final energy use (global) TWh 200 000

BAU ALL

BAU ALL

BAU ALL

BAU ALL

Fossil fuels

Bio

BAU ALL Electricity

BAU ALL Other

Global PV capacity decreases merely 7% if assumed investment cost in 2050 increases from 300 to 500 â‚Ź/kW.

/ TRANSITION TOWARDS A RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX IN HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIO The total system cost of a high renewable energy scenario in 2050 is 11 % higher than in a business-as-usual scenario, when taking into account emission costs (100 €/ton). The path toward a renewable enrgy future requires significant investments.

Electricity consumption by region 2050 (103 898 TWh)

Electricity consumption by sector 2050 (103 898 TWh)

Electricity production 2050 (124 547 TWh)

China

Industry

Solar

USA

Transport

Wind

Europe

Residential

Hydro

CIS

Commerical + agriculture

CHP + Other

India

Hydrogen production

Africa

Power-to-gas

Asia Other

REFORMS IN ELECTRICITY MARKET DESIGNS, FINANCING SOLUTIONS, AND INNOVATIVE PARTNERSHIPS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR RENEWING THE ENERGY SYSTEM 1. Energy market has to be capable to value flexibility

ELECTRICITY MARKET OBJECTIVES

2. All the stakeholders have to face cost-based prices 3. There will be different markets for different resources: real-time markets for flexibility and long-term auctions for generation capacity 4. For end customers, energy will be typically bundled in other services. That is, customers get "free" energy, by giving service providers data on energy use and the right to control power demand

EFFICIENT OPERATION OF SYSTEM Cost-based pricing to provide incentives for cost-efficiency

SUSTAINABILITY Long-term auctions for RES capacity

SECURITY OF SUPPLY Valuation of flexibility by near real-time markets

5. Development of market design should be foreseeable, even during the revolutionary development of the energy system.

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2neDngj

CONTACT: esa.pursiheimo@vtt.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND AND THE BALTIC SEA REGION TWO DIFFERENT CASE STUDIES:

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Island case – Finland as an independent energy ’island’, modelled with the EnergyPLAN tool for the power, heat, industrial and mobility sectors Interconnected case – Finland as an interconnected member of the Baltic Sea Region, modelled with the TIMES-VTT and Balmorel-VTT tools for the power, heat, industrial and mobility sectors

2050

2050

ISLAND CASE 299 TWh

Conclusion:

Hourly energy demands can be met by 100% renewable energy

2013 372 TWh

INTERCONNECTED CASE 272 TWh

/ Expanded roles for biomass, wind and solar energy

/ Expanded roles for biomass and wind

BIOMASS

NUCLEAR

WIND ONSHORE

GAS

/ No GHG emissions

/ Role of imported electricity

WIND OFFSHORE

COAL & PEAT

/ 100% renewable energy system is very energy efficient!

/ Fossil fuels still used as industrial raw materials

SOLAR PV

OIL

HYDRO

IMPORT ELECTRICITY HEAT PUMPS

INSTALLED CAPACITIES

ISLAND CASE 2050 / 78 GW

Conclusion:

INTERCONNECTED CASE

2013

13 GW

2050 / 41 GW

Wind and solar are important future resources / Significant roles for solar PV and wind power

/ Wind power dominates over solar PV

/ PV prosumers may play an important role

/ PV prosumers have no role

/ Condensing power plants using renewable fuels / Balance provided by CHP and provide additional flexibility condensing power plants utilising biomass and sustainable gas / Hydro retains important role

WIND ONSHORE

CHP

WIND OFFSHORE

CONDENSING

SOLAR PV

NUCLEAR

HYDRO

/ 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND AND THE BALTIC SEA REGION

ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS Conclusion:

Although the models have notable differences, in both cases the 100% RE scenario compared favourably against a Business As Usual scenario given the cost assumptions and scenario designs.

ISLAND CASE

INTERCONNECTED CASE

Annualized costs in the Finland (M€/year) 30000 25000

-2,8%

Annualized costs in the Nordic region (M€/year) 40000

FUEL EXPORT

+1,6%

WIND

35000

HYDRO

30000 20000

CHP CONDENSING

25000

SOLAR STORAGE

20000

15000

TRANSMISSION HEAT SECTOR

15000

10000

SUSTAINABLE FUEL PRODUCTION

10000 5000 0

FIXED OPERATION COSTS VARIABLE COST - OTHER

5000

Finland 2050 100% RE

Finland 2050 BAU

STORAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM

0

VARIABLE COST - FUEL CO2 COST

Nordics 2050 100% RE

Nordics 2050 BAU

ISLAND CASE

INTERCONNECTED CASE

/ In favourable conditions it is possible vehicles cover almost all battery storage needs

/ Strong role of battery electric vehicle smart charging

/ Up to 20% of the end use electricity goes through battery storage / Solar PV prosumer batteries may have importance / Seasonal and system-level storage provided by hydro, biomass and sustainable Power-to-Gas / Power-to-Gas could include up to 12 GWgas of methanation and 20 GWel of electrolyser capacity

/ Stationary batteries not needed due to flexibility provided by smart charging and interconnections / Seasonal and system-level storage from hydro, biomass and renewable-based condensing plants / Power-to-Gas was important for mobility and industry, but less so for the power sector

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2AGsTMx T

CONTACT: michael.child@lut.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND FLOWS OF ENERGY IN 2050 CONCLUSION: 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIOS SHOULD BE PART OF FINNISH ENERGY DISCOURSE. ISLAND CASE Energy conversion & storage, TWh Bioenergy 143

Electricity demand 99

Wind 106

Heat demand 65

Solar PV 29

Transport demand (EV) 35

Hydropower 21

Export or curtailment 1

Oil 0

Conversion losses 69

Gas 0

Transmissions & distribution losses 15

Import 0

Storage losses 15

INTERCONNECTED CASE Bioenergy 139 Wind 88 Solar PV 0 Hydropower 15 Oil 0 Gas 0 Import 14 Heat pumps 16 Renewable electricity Biomass Synthetic gas Biogas

Electricity demand 98 Heat demand 92 Transport demand (EV) 33 Export or curtailment 1 Conversion losses 44 Transmissions & distribution losses 4 Storage losses 0 Biomass Renewable electricity Waste heat Synthetic gas Biogas

Renewable electricity Biofuels Synthetic fuels

/ A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND - FLOWS OF ENERGY IN 2050

100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND SOLAR POWER

2017 INSTALLED SOLAR PV 50 MW

2050 FINLAND WOULD HAVE 30 000 MW SOLAR PV INSTALLED Equivalent to 100 000 large roof-top solar power plants.

WIND POWER

2017

800 WIND TURBINES OVERALL CAPACITY 2 200 MW

2050 FINLAND WOULD HAVE 8 800 WIND TURBINES WITH TOTAL CAPACITY OF 44 000 MW

ROAD TRANSPORT

2017

5000 ELECTRIC VEHICLES

AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS

2050

3 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION WITH ELECTROLYSIS H H

2017

150 MW

H H

H H

H

H

H H

H

H

2050 ELECTROLYSIS 15 000–20 000 MW

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2AGsTMx

CONTACT: jussi.ikaheimo@vtt.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ WEATHER IS A FUTURE ENERGY SOURCE FUTURE INDUSTRY MUST HANDLE VARIABLE POWER GENERATION:

SEASONAL Seasonal variation

DAILY Day and night cycles

AIR

SECONDLY Fast changes due to weather

NITROGEN

FUTURE RENEWABLE FERTILIZER FACTORY

N2 WATER

Ammonia is an important component in fertilizers Ammonia production is responsible for ~1% of CO2 emissions

NH3

H

In the future ammonia can be produced from the air with electricity

H2 N2

H

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION

HYDROGEN STORAGE

AMMONIA SYNTHESIS

THIS IS HOW A LARGE INDUSTRIAL PLANT HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO OPERATE IN A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSYTEM SECONDLY Fast changes due to weather

DAILY Day and night cycles

POWER SUPPLY, FERTILIZER PRODUCTION 100 %

100 %

50 %

50 %

0%

0% 4.12.

2050

4.13.

2050

4.14.

2050

4.15.

2050

SOLAR POWER PRODUCTION

4.16.

2050

4.17.

2050

4.18.

2050

4.19.

2050

WIND POWER PRODUCTION

POWER SUPPLY TO THE FERTILIZER PRODUCTION

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15 MINUTES

POWER SUPPLY TO THE FERTILIZER PRODUCTION –FAST VARIATIONS FERTILIZER PRODUCTION – SMOOTH

/ WEATHER IS A FUTURE ENERGY SOURCE

RENEWABLE ENERGY-BASED CHEMICAL FACTORY – DESIGN ON A LAPTOP IS POSSIBLE

AIR

CH4

WATER

NH3

ELECTRICITY

SYNTHETIC FUELS

A new factory producing chemicals from air, water and electricity can be designed in the Apros® computer simulator

A VARIABLE RENEWABLE BASED FACTORY CAN BE DESIGNED, TESTED AND STAFF TRAINED BEFORE CONSTRUCTION

DESIGN

TESTING

TRAINING

EXAMPLE

/ A new process design was

450

TEMPERATURE

tested in the simulator / A harmful reactor temperature spike was detected / The reason was poor process

400

automation / This was corrected

350 0

120 AFTER

240

360

BEFORE

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2j1T7Pc

CONTACT: jouni.savolainen@vtt.fi

480 MINUTES

www.apros.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ FUEL CAN BE MADE FROM AIR WATER

CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE

H H

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION

THE PRINCIPLE SOLETAIR PILOT The first in the world to make it all happen at one site: / CARBON DIOXIDE AND WATER CAPTURE FROM THE AIR / SOLAR POWER GENERATION / SOLETAIR OIL PRODUCTION

CHEMICAL

SOLETAIR Oil, gas and chemicals can be replaced with SOLETAIR products

FUELS AND CHEMICALS PRODUCTION

PRODUCT

CO2 IN AMBIENT AIR

The raw materials, carbon dioxide and water, are separated from the air. Hydrogen is generated from water by means of electrolysis. Energy consumed in the electrolysis is supplied by hybrid solar and wind. Finally, CO2 and hydrogen are combined to form hydrocarbons in a synthesis reactor operating at high pressure and temperature.

The CO2 released in fuel combustion is re-circulated by means of CO2 air capture.

/ FUEL CAN BE MADE FROM AIR

2,0 €/liter 100 €/TONNE CO2 EMISSION COST 50 €/TONNE CO2 EMISSION COST

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0 SOLETAIR PRODUCTS FROM AIR

FOSSIL DIESEL AT THE PUMP

SOLETAIR PRODUCTS FROM FLUE GASES

SOLETAIR PRODUCTS FROM AIR 2030

FOSSIL DIESEL, PRE-TAX

FUELS FROM CO2 ARE BECOMING COMPETITIVE The cost estimates for producing SOLETAIR liquid fuels are around $170/bbl (0.80 €/l) between 2030 and 2040 if produced in a favourable location, for example in Patagonia. Such prices were reached for fossil crude oil in 2008.

SOLETAIR OIL GLOBAL SUPPLY POTENTIAL AND COST IN 2030 €/MWh 100 Road transport

90

Aviation Marine

80

Petrochemicals

70

Others

60

Rail and domestic waterways electricity generation Resid. / comm. / agriculture Heating

Global oil demand in 2014 by sector 0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000 TWh

FUTURE OIL IS PRODUCED NEXT TO THE CHEAPEST ELECTRICITY AND TRADED GLOBALLY Cost (€/MWh, higher heating value)

Energy loss 17.9

50 40

20

76

CO2 11.4

60

30

1.0

41.9

70

10.5

22.6

Plant 12.5

SOLETAIR fuel production cost in West Europe 95 €/MWh SOLETAIR fuel imported from Patagonia 76 €/MWh

Energy loss 4.3 Plant 6.1

SOLETAIR fuel production cost in Japan 120 €/MWh SOLETAIR fuel imported from West-Australia 86 €/MWh

10 0

Renewable Electrolyser Electricity in Patagonia

Synthesis Plant

Shipping SOLETAIR OIL delivered to Rotterdam

SOLETAIR fuel production cost in Patagonia 75 €/MWh

SOLETAIR fuel production cost in West-Australia 85 €/MWh

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2zyj7Yt

CONTACT: christian.breyer@lut.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ NEO-CARBONISATION: CO2 REPLACES FOSSIL CARBON No new CO2 emissions – switching to a circular carbon economy

FUELS AND CHEMICALS CAN BE PRODUCED FROM CO2 WITH THE SOLETAIR TECHNOLOGY Instead of the conventional route, synthetic alternatives for chemicals and fuels can be produced by using a circular carbon economy. In a Neo-Carbon world sustainable biomass and CO2 captured from the air are sources of carbon.

REFINING AND USE

REFINING AND USE

FOSSIL CARBON

FOSSIL CARBON

TODAY

FUTURE: NEO-CARBON ENERGY

Adsorption

0,0001

Chemical absorption

0,001

0,01

ATMOSPHERE

Water scrubbing

0,1 HUMAN COMBUSTION RESPIRATION FLUE GASES

RAW BIOGAS

MOLE FRACTION 1 OF CO2

Carbon dioxide can be reclaimed from point sources with several volume percent of CO2 or ultra dilute sources such as air. Air has only 400 parts per million of CO2.

MINIMUM THEORETICAL WORK AND COST OF CO2 CAPTURE AS A FUNCTION OF CO2 SOURCE CONCENTRATION

500

CO2 capture cost, €/ton

The most suitable CO2 capture technology depends on the CO2 source and potential process integration benefits.

500

370

370

250

250 Minimum work (kJ/kgCO )

1 / Is available at a constant rate during the whole year 3 / Contains no harmful impurities

2

Direct air capture

Ideally, the utilised CO2 source 2 / Has high CO2 concentration

Minimum work (kJ/kgCO )

90% of CO2 captured

125 Power plant

0

0

Cement

20

Steel 40

2

125 Ethanol production

Biogas 60

0 80 100 Concentration of CO2 (%)

/ NEO-CARBONISATION: CO2 REPLACES FOSSIL CARBON

36 %

REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY NEEDED TO RAISE A GRAM OF MATERIAL BY 1°C.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN DIRECT AIR CAPTURE The cost and capability to fast cycling between CO2 capture and release modes.

Honeycomb structure

Polystyrene

Reduction in pressure drop due to the geometry of the adsorbent.

1400 J Metallic 900 J

4–6 mbar

<1 mbar

Honeycomb structure was found to provide rigid, low … and pressure loss pressure loss structure for With new CO2 capture materials during capture supporting CO2 adsorbent. we can reduce energy consumption...

BENEFITS OF DIRECT AIR CAPTURE OF CO2 CO2 Direct Air Capture (DAC) devices can be placed virtually anywhere in the world.

Low temperature heat can be used for direct air capture operation.

CO2 is clean!

DAC can produce synthesis ready CO2 without the need for CO2 pre-cleaning.

Water!

DAC can co-capture CO2 and water from air.

In ratio 4 H2O : 1 CO2 From water, hydrogen can be produced that is needed in the fuel production.

CARBON EFFICIENCY IN FOCUS

WOOD USE IN FINLAND 35% bioproducts, 65% CO2

Current utilisation routes of wood are not carbon efficient

1/3

OF THE CARBON TO THE PRODUCT

2/3

PULP MILL 30–40% pulp, 60–70% CO2

100% Carbon harvested from forest

FUELS THROUGH GASIFICATION 35% fuel, 65% CO2

OF THE CARBON TO CO2

BOOSTING CARBON EFFICIENCY

HYDROGEN FROM RENEWABLES

Biological methanation can produce grid quality methane from agricultural and municipal wastes by utilising microbes to convert residual CO2 in biogas into methane.

60 % CH4

98 % CH4

40 % CO2 BIOGAS FROM WASTES & RESIDUES

BIOGAS

2 % CO2 BIOLOGICAL METHANATION H2O

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2j1VgKq

CONTACT: cyril.bajamundi@vtt.fi

/ A CO2 CAPTURE AND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WAS DESIGNED FOR A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FINLAND TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

POTENTIAL IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION

CO2 can be captured from large point sources such as pulp mills.

Mapping of large CO2 sources in Finland revealed that 57% of CO2 emitted is from wood combustion.

33 Mt CO2 170 TWh

Pulp & Paper mills’ wood-based CO2 emissions as a source of carbon.

in Finland

in EU

57% Biogenic CO2

10% Biogenic CO2

410 Mt CO2 2000 TWh

43% Fossil CO2

ANNUALLY:

40 MT CO 200 TWh

2

90% Fossil CO2

FUEL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

Biogenic CO2 emissions from stationary sources and the potential of CO2 based fuels

Stored CO2 (kt)

STORAGE SIZE

15 %

1400 1200

CO2 STORAGE

OF ANNUALLY UTILISED CO2

1000 800

Intermediate storage is a key solution for balancing the temporal fluctuations in the process chain.

600 400 200 0 Jan

Annual CO2 transferred (kt)

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Pipe

500 400

Railway

300 200 100

Truck 50

100

150

200

CAPTURE

M€/YEAR

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

CO2 TRANSPORT Transport provides a flexible option for acquiring COz from multiple distributed point sources to the utilisation sites.

TRANSPORT OPEX 5% TRANSPORT CAPEX 3% STORAGE CAPEX 19% CAPTURE OPEX 18%

43

€/TCO2

STORAGE OPEX 2%

CAPTURE CAPEX 53%

for a 100% Renewable Finland scenario.

500

Apr

250 300 350 400 Transport distance (km)

CO2 CAPTURE, TRANSPORT AND STORAGE COST TOTAL

Mar

20 €/tCO2

700 600

Feb

STORAGE

13

€/TCO2 KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2j1VgKq

CONTACT: tero.tynjala@lut.fi

Jan

/ EFFICIENT HYDROGEN PRODUCTION WITH MODERN POWER ELECTRONICS ENABLES EFFICIENT SYNTHESIS PROCESSES

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

Hydrogen production from water with electricity is an important technology in connecting renewable electricity production with the chemical industry.

100

CURRENT (A)

80 60 40

By applying modern power electronics the fluctuations in power quality supplied to hydrogen production can be minimised. As a result, hydrogen production efficiency can increase up to 25%.

20 0 -20 0

10

20

30

MODERN POWER ELECTRONICS

According to experiments, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser enables efficient, pressurised hydrogen production without the need for hydrogen compression for subsequent hydrogen utilisation process, such as a chemical synthesis.

40

40 TIME (ms)

DEFAULT POWER ELECTRONICS

HYDROGEN OUTLET PRESSURE (bar)

HIGHER HEATING VALUE EFFICIENCY (%) 90

80 81 82

35

85

83 87

30

86

85

84 80

88

25

20 30

40

50

60

70

80 90 100 LOAD OF NOMINAL (%)

75

A NEW, INNOVATIVE LABORATORY WAS BUILT TO RESEARCH ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGIES NEEDED FOR 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest 250 kW hydrogen production emulator is a devise that can mimic direct current loads, such as electrolysers, batteries and capacitors for power electronics research and development purposes. This emulator eliminates the need to build the actual devices, but they can be mimicked with cut-edge software.

Electrolyser / battery / capacitor model Device under test Electricity grid

Power electonics (changeable)

Emulator

Via transformer to grid

The device under test consists of changeable power electronics that supply power to the unit.

The emulator itself is a programmable electricity consuming load. From the emulator electricity is supplied back to the electricity grid and only the power losses need to be covered.

/ EFFICIENT HYDROGEN PRODUCTION WITH MODERN POWER ELECTRONICS ENABLES EFFICIENT SYNTHESIS PROCESSES

1.0

WELL DESIGNED HYDROGEN PRODUCTION CAN FOLLOW THE FAST CHANGES IN SOLAR POWER PLANT OUTPUT.

POWER

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

0

2

4

LUT hydrogen lab in arctic conditions

6

8

10 TIME, HOURS

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION

SOLAR PV

COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT HYDROGEN PRODUCTION, COMPETITIVE SYNTHETIC FUELS CAN BE PRODUCED FROM CARBON DIOXIDE 100

A new, highly active catalyst material was developed for synthetic natural gas production from carbon dioxide and hydrogen. The catalyst is 6 times more efficient than conventional catalysts.

Methanol was produced in laboratory scale from carbon dioxide and hydrogen. Methanol is widely used as a feedstock to produce chemicals and finally adhesives, foams, plywood subfloors, solvents, antifreeze, dyestuffs, resins, pharmaceuticals, paint thinner and perfumes.

CO2 CONVERSION (%)

80

60

40

20

0 250 °C

300 °C TEMPERATURE CONVENTIONAL

The synthesis of SOLETAIR oil requires the feedstock carbon dioxide to be converted to carbon monoxide before the actual synthesis step.

In Neo-Carbon Energy the first kinetic model for production of CO from CO2 at high-temperature and high-pressure was developed and published.

NEW CATALYST

CO2

CO2

CO rWGS

H2

H2

FischerTropsch synthesis

FT Products Diesel & gasoline Waxes

H2O THE SOLETAIR PROCESS STEPS HIGHLIGHTING THE ROLE OF REVERSE WATER-GAS SHIFT (RWGS)

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2BMtFVJ

CONTACT: antti.kosonen@lut.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ ELECTRICITY GRID STABILITY CAN BE MAINTAINED IN A 100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM In the power grid the imbalance between power generation and consumption results in a change in electricity grid frequency. The change in frequency changes the speed of electric generators. As a result, the power grid will be at risk of becoming unstable and, in a worst case scenario, blackout.

GENERATION

> CONSUMPTION frequency / generator speed

= CONSUMPTION frequency / generator speed

time

GENERATION

GENERATION

<

CONSUMPTION frequency / generator speed

time

POWER GRID STABILITY Today large, heavy electric generators in power plants provide resistance to any change in grid frequency. They have high synchronous inertia.

100 % RENEWABLE ENERGY

TODAY Large heavy generators with synchronous speed

FUTURE Cloud of small, programmable generators and loads even without moving parts

time

/ ELECTRICITY GRID STABILITY CAN BE MAINTAINED IN A 100% RENEWABLE POWER SYSTEM

METHODS TO MAINTAIN POWER GRID STABILITY ARE IN TRANSITION TODAY large rotating mass

FUTURE a cloud of small programmable production and consumption units

LARGE STEAM POWER PLANT Large, heavy generators with high synchronous inertia. The amount of inertia depends on the number and size of the plants connected.

HYDROPOWER

WIND Can extract 6 % of extra power for 10 seconds to support the grid stability.

SOLAR PV Can extract 0.5 % extra power for 10 seconds to support the grid stability.

BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS Can be used as a generator or load from the grid viewpoint. Megawattscale battery systems have already been utilized for grid stability support.

Suitable for fast control.

VEHICLE-TO-GRID Each electric vehicle has in-built battery energy storage that can be used for grid stability support. Suitable for fast control.

POWER-TO-GAS, SOLETAIR Can be used as a generator or load from the grid viewpoint. Slowish response speed, high capacity. Suitable for seasonal storage.

ADJUSTABLE LOAD, DEMAND RESPONSE Industry and households are full of processes and systems that could be turned off or on to assist in grid stability support. Fast response and possibly a huge capacity.

IN THE CURRENT INTEGRATED NORDIC AREA WITH A HIGH SHARE OF HYDROPOWER GENERATION, FREQUENCY STABILITY WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE

40%

MORE RESERVE CAPACITY NEEDED THAN TODAY

TOTAL INERTIA IN 100 % RE GRID

75%

OF TODAYâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S GRID

LESS THAN

1%

OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY CAPACITY SUFFICIENT FOR FAST STABILITY SUPPORT RESERVES

When considering fully renewable Finland with no electricity grid connection to neighbours the frequency stability problems will arise if the new cloud based grid stability support technologies are not taken into use

AN ELECTRIC VEHICLE IS A FUTURE POWER PLANT

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2BwlRqU

CONTACT: pasi.peltoniemi@lut.fi

FOOD FROM ELECTRICITY NEO-CARBON FOOD is future protein production that utilises electricity and carbon dioxide as the main ingredients.

It is developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT.

THE PRINCIPLE

WATER

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY

Neo-Carbon Food is a microbial process. Protein production takes place in a reactor suitable for microorganisms to grow and divide. The energy of the process is electricity, and carbon dioxide is the carbon source.

NUTRIENTS & VITAMINS

BIOPROCESS

CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE

PROTEIN

FOOD

/ FOOD FROM ELECTRICITY

ELECTRICITY

NEO-CARBON FOOD enables protein production with minimal requirements separating food production from agricultural land use.

CO2 WATER MINERALS MICRO-ORGANISMS BIOPROCESS

WHY NEO-CARBON FOOD: One fifth of human caused greenhouse gas emissions is connected to food production. / World population 7.5 → 9 billion by 2050. / Climate change and draughts reduce food yields.

FOOD & FEED

PROTEIN 54 % TOTAL FAT 1 % NEOCARBON FOOD

TOTAL CARBOHYDRATE 18 % INORGANICS 8 % OTHER (BY ELIMINATION) 19 %

/ Global overfishing: peak annual catch in 1996.

NEO-CARBON FOOD PRODUCTION REQUIRES

90% LESS LAND AREA

COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL FOOD PRODUCTION.

/ NEO-CARBON FOOD CONTACTS: JUHA-PEKKA PITKÄNEN Principal Scientist VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd juha-pekka.pitkanen@vtt.fi, tel. +358 40 3569 758 @JPPitkanen JERO AHOLA Professor Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) jero.ahola@lut.fi, tel. +358 40 529 8524 @JeroAhola

PASI VAINIKKA Principal Scientist, VTT; Docent, LUT pasi.vainikka@vtt.fi, tel. +358 40 5825 987 @VainikkaPMJ neocarbonfood.fi

@neocarbonfood

Neo-Carbon food makes food production completely independent of current agriculture and land use.

The production is not dependent on soil quality, weather or climatic conditions. The need to clear forest for agricultural use is eliminated. Irrigation, use of pestisides and fertiliser drainage to surface waters can be avoided.

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ TECHNOLOGIES, INVESTMENTS AND FINANCE ARE IN TRANSITION A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EMITTING SECTORS COVERED BY NEO-CARBON ENERGY Waste water

Landfills

Non-metallic minerals

Avoided fuel mining and refining

Iron and steel

Energy industry own use and losses

Chemical and petrochemical Paper, pulp and printing

Other LULUCF Other industries

INDUSTRY BUILDINGS TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE LAND USE CHANGE

Agricult. soils

ENERGY SUPPLY

Agricult. energy use

WASTE

Livestock and manure

Electricity, heating (incl. cooking) and cooling

SEE PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2yWGuKb

Other transportation Aviation Road transportation NEO-CARBON CASE STUDIES AND SYSTEM MODELING

INCLUDED IN SYSTEM MODELING

EXCLUDED FROM NEO-CARBON

ENERGY INVESTMENT FINANCING IS IN TRANSITION PAST INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

INCUMBENT UTILITY COMPANIES

ENERGY PROJECTS

FUNDS

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS

FUNDS

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS

PRESENT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

INCUMBENT UTILITY COMPANIES FUTURE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

INCUMBENT UTILITY COMPANIES

/ TECHNOLOGIES, INVESTMENTS AND FINANCE ARE IN TRANSITION

INVESTORS’ VIEW: THE MISMATCH OF TECHNOLOGY HYPE AND INVESTMENTS EXPECTATIONS

VOLUME OF INVESTMENTS CCU Carbon capture and utilisation Intelligent electricity market Hydrogen based steel reduction

Bio power Wind and solar power Geothermal Heat Battery strorage, electric vehicle

Smart home PEAK OF INFLATED EXPECTATIONS

‘

Electricity grid integration

CCS Carbon capture and storage

Direct CO2 air capture

Synthetic fuels

Neo-Carbon Food

MATURITY PUBLIC RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

VENTURE CAPITAL

INVESTMENT FUNDS

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, UTILITIES

INVESTOR INTERVIEWS Wind power and solar PV are the dominating carbon neutral energy production technologies in investors’ portfolios / New, maturing technologies for investments are: - Battery energy storages - Energy efficiency solutions - Recycling of materials / Despite declining investments, the use of coal continues due to cheap prices / Nuclear power is not considered as an investment option / Investments in industrial process changes are not on the investors’ “radar-screen” - Heavy industry is not reducing CO2 emissions / Electric vehicles are expected to be the dominant technology in transportation Institutional investors are looking for decent, long returns and low risk / Technology must be proven / Favouring carbon-free investment has begun Global constraints and barriers in transition to renewables / Governments’ actions vary from one country to another / Defense of present businesses by the utility firms results in prolongation of the lifetime of current power plants / Low prices of fossil fuels / Lack of political pressure / Too big CO2 emission quota in Emission Trading market / Low profitability of emitting industries ⟶ no room for investments ⟶ support needed for new technologies

FACT CHECK WITH CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT DATA

DATABASE

2000 of the world's forerunner companies disclose their emission reduction plans and actions annually / Analysed firms represent - Top 100 largest carbon emitters - 14% of global carbon emissions / Findings from the Carbon Disclosure Project data - “Carbon management” planning on a clear rise from 2010 to 2015.

- Despite the plans, emissions were not reduced during the assessed period - Firms show actions related to planning, but these are not executed despite good financial results - Planning is done to satisfy the investor demands and support the share price.

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2k5TlYK

CONTACT: eemeli.tsupari@vtt.fi

/ LOCAL PIONEERS DRIVE GLOBAL CHANGES

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

Pioneering acts are seeds of future changes. Pioneers introduce radical innovations and new, disruptive social practices. They look for opportunities for change with determination and lead the uptake and diffusion of new practices around the world – locally and regionally. They exist in the present, and future ones will emerge.

ADOPTION RATE OR MARKET SHARE (%)

”IF THEY WON’T FIX IT, WE WILL.”

PIONEERS

INNOVATORS

EARLY ADOPTERS

EARLY MAJORITY

LATE MAJORITY

LATE LAGGARDS

Pioneers are individuals, organisations, communities, companies, start-ups, industries, or even countries that are ready to tackle all obstacles of adopting new innovations or technology. Pioneering acts may start as something seemingly small, but if they prosper, they may challenge prevailing norms and institutions, to overcome path dependence. Followers can then learn from their actions.

Citizens. Bring new values, push for energy production to be democratised due to climate change, air pollution and environmental degradation. In the internet of energy, anyone can start an energy company.

CITIZENS

Activists, NGOs, off-grid and permaculture movements, spiritual communities, transition towns

Do-it-yourself innovators. Work, design and research new solutions with an enthusiastic mindset.

They design and deploy new and innovative sustainability-enhancing products, services and practices.

DIY INNOVATORS

Eco-engineers, farmers, hardware hubs, think and do tanks

Businesses. Identify novel opportunities, make business cases through pilots, have the potential to be increasingly value-driven. With the aid of global innovation networks, radical startups and value-driven companies can drive a new industrial cluster that serves the needs of the new energy world.

BUSINESSES

M-KOPA Solar, Tesla, Google, Dyson

Decision-makers. Write new legislative frameworks. Governments can catalyse pioneering initiatives and hasten the adoption of renewable energy systems. Their leadership can help to reduce negative dependencies between countries and regions.

DECISION-MAKERS

?/

Energiewende, 100% renewable energy targets, RE auctions, county energy divisions, local energy groups

WHAT ABOUT ENERGY COMPANIES? If they reinvent themselves in the internet of energy, a new industrial cluster emerges: large-scale energy storage, transportation, heating, cooling and chemical industry. The current energy business will die.

/ LOCAL PIONEERS DRIVE GLOBAL CHANGES

THE POTENTIAL FOR BOOSTING ENERGY TRANSITION IS IN THE NEW ACTORS $$$

FUNDS

NATIONAL POLICYMAKERS

ENERGY PRODUCTION COMPANIES

ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE UTILITIES

ENERGY USERS

/ Policymakers can boost the Neo-Carbon Energy transition in Finland in the next governmental programmes

NEW BUSINESSES ENTERING THE ENERGY FIELD

GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES

COMMUNITIES

CITIZENS

/ New key actors identified must be considered

STARTUPS

CURRENT

NEW

Finland benefits from positioning as a Renewable Energy pioneer country. The benefits appear as new business and jobs. Citizen movements, online communities and startup companies have a key role as kickstarters.

Governmental policy plays major role in advancing the design of the new renewable energy system. The next governmental programmes in Finland should frame the policy environment as ambitious and predictable, which would help citizens’ and companies’ interest in renewable energy to grow.

PIONEERING INITIATIVES GLOBALLY Energiewende in Germany starts in 2010 as the 1st major policy effort for renewables.

California plans to go 100% renewable energy by 2045.

Paris Climate Change Agreement gets all countries aboard for the first time in 2015.

Wind energy in Mexico becomes the cheapest electricity on the planet.

Mining companies in the Atacama desert begin the use of solar energy.

Solar energy companies in East Africa harness mobile money, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Major car manufacturers announce that in the future they will only focus on electric vehicles.

Saudi Arabia auctions solar energy for less than US 2 cents / kWh in 2017.

Africa’s largest wind farm is built in Kenya.

RE IPPPP in South Africa starts in 2011.

Evolution of China's solar photovoltaics industry drops world prices by 80 % between 2008 and 2013.

Solar microgrids enable rural energy sharing in Bangladesh.

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2zNEDc3

World’s largest Li-ion battery storage built in New South Wales, Australia.

CONTACT: tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ SURPRISING ENERGY FUTURES The Finland Futures Research Centre's five futures cliniques catalysed experts' anticipations on how renewable energy could change society and culture.

THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Renewable energy will drive, together with other new technologies, a new industrial revolution. Production will decentralise to numerous local “workshops” and centralise to a few mega-corporations.

Technology companies will become energy companies – by developing energy technologies, producing energy, and offering energy-related services.

Renewable energy will become a lifestyle brand – like Tesla has already shown.

If renewable energy and the “great electrification” foster mass-scale automation, the following industries would still grow and employ: clean technologies, creative economy, hyperlocal production, maintenance, research and development (R&D), sharing economy, and the environmental sector.

FUZZY FUTURES OF WORK AND INCOME Peer-to-peer communities may become the unit of both work and lifestyles in a future of increasingly automated production powered by renewables.

Work in general will become about self-expression, and conducted in communities of different scales instead of traditional workplaces. Work as a separate sector will vanish, and will begin to resemble hobbies and voluntary activities.

Abundant and inexpensive energy supply together with mass-scale automation make generous Universal Basic Income a realistic possibility.

/ SURPRISING ENERGY FUTURES

CLEAN DISRUPTION FOR ABUNDANT FUTURES The internet and energy grids will merge as the "internet of energy".

All devices would be connected and communicating with their environment.

In the energy internet everyone and everything will harvest energy - such as windows and clothes.

Energy Internet will become a smart, responsive, decentralised network of energy and data. In the energy internet, all devices would be connected and communicating with their environment and with each other.

However, the digital realm – artificial intelligences, virtual realities, communication, digital currencies, among many others – may demand hugely more energy than expected.

In a world of material and energy abundance the current competition of economic status might become meaningless. This, however, does not mean that competition would vanish. Perhaps people will compete on cultural and social capital?

NEW OPPORTUNITIES AROUND THE WORLD A renewable-powered, decentralised peer-to-peer society may take different shapes in different countries. Fighting inequality, diversifying economy and increasing trust need also to be taken into account.

New technologies and organisational models have to be reviewed critically if they are introduced into new socio-cultural and economic contexts.

Developing and emerging countries hope to diversify their economies. Novel technologies are expected to yield economic benefits also in local communities and counties.

New economic activities are expected to be in line with ecological thinking. If more critical resources and rare earth metals are used, mining has to be ecological and operate in a circular economy.

Trust can be built with open, horizontal governance and new institutions. The uptake of renewable energy can be hastened e.g. with local Energy Councils that cherish quality of life locally.

SURPRISE AS THE NEW NORMAL If the renewable energy system produces more energy than the current one, the world will become more volatile and change more suddenly. This may be one of the unexpected consequences of the new energy system!

An abundance of clean energy is not only a positive prospect. If the energy supply increases, societies become more complex and possibly more chaotic as energy can be put in to new uses.

The rise of the grassroots may also have adverse effects – for instance, if renewable energy and cheap technologies empower criminals and terrorist groups.

The fossil fuel industry may develop new and clever measures to make sure its existence continues – such as flooding the social media with “alternative facts”.

The new energy system will imply a redistribution of geopolitical power – for instance China’s rise to world domination would be ushered if China becomes the leading solar innovator.

KEY PUBLICATIONS: http://bit.ly/2ng55Jm

CONTACT: sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ IMPACT #1 THE WORLDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S FIRST

global 100% renewable power system simulation in hourly resolution.

AWARD WINNING VISUALISATION

ENERGY GLOBE 2017.

WINNER OF THE NATIONAL AWARD

of the 100% renewable power world. http://bit.ly/2o7nd8w

100 PUBLIC SPEECHES, HEARINGS AND EXPERT ARTICLES

European Parliament, Finnish Parliament, The UN, SuomiAreena.

#1

/ Governmental 100% renewable energy assessment done in Finland / SOLETAIR: Pilot plant producing fuel from the air / Neo-Carbon Food: Protein produced with electricity and CO2

/ IMPACT

FINLAND’S MOST READ SCIENCE According to the weekly statistics of ResearchGate

1000 500 000 TWITTER IMPRESSIONS

Twitter followers’ main interests: Business, news, finance, politics and government

70

scientific publications

/ Media hits / Twitter followers

L TWITTER FOLLOWERS

Press releases in

8

languages

10

TV and radio news

80%

Of the media hits are international

FINLAND 63 %

FRANCE 2 %

USA 6 %

SWEDEN 2 %

UK 5 %

CANADA 1 %

BELGIUM 3 %

INDIA 1 %

GERMANY 3 %

OTHERS 12 %

SPAIN 2 %

2 START-UP COMPANIES Food and fuels from air

/ NEO-CARBON ENERGY CONTACTS: PASI VAINIKKA VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd pasi.vainikka@vtt.fi, tel. +358 40 5825 987 @VainikkaPMJ CHRISTIAN BREYER Lappeenranta University of Technology christian.breyer@lut.fi, tel. +358 50 443 1929 @ChristianOnRE SIRKKA HEINONEN Futures Research Centre, University of Turku sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi, tel. +358 40 5811229 @SirkkaFMC neocarbonenergy.fi

facebook.com/neocarbonenergy @neocarbonenergy

TRUST IN RENEWABLE.

/ PROJECT’S KEY FIGURES

4 YEARS 2014–2017

10 M€

3 FINNISH RESEARCH PARTNERS

15 INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS

3 NGOS

5 INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS

/ NEO-CARBON ENERGY CONTACTS: PASI VAINIKKA VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd pasi.vainikka@vtt.fi, tel. +358 40 5825 987 @VainikkaPMJ CHRISTIAN BREYER Lappeenranta University of Technology christian.breyer@lut.fi, tel. +358 50 443 1929 @ChristianOnRE SIRKKA HEINONEN Futures Research Centre, University of Turku sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi, tel. +358 40 5811229 @SirkkaFMC neocarbonenergy.fi

facebook.com/neocarbonenergy @neocarbonenergy

NEO-CARBON ENERGY project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.