BNP Paribas rapport EU boligmarked

"THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN EUROPE"

ALEXIS POURCELOT, RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL MADRID, FEBRUARY 2021

Classification : Internal

ECONOMIC CONTEXT

ECONOMIC CONTEXT G D P

P R E - P A N D E M I C

L E V E L S

S H O U L D

GDP growth

B E

R E A C H E D

A T

T H E

H A L F

O F

2 0 2 2

Inflation in Europe

10

6 5

5

4 3 %

%

0

-5

2 1

-10 0 -15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Euro Zone Sources: Moody’s

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

-1 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Euro Zone

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

Sources: Moody’s

•

The Eurozone economy is bouncing back. GDP is recovering faster from losses accumulated during the pandemic period. The lifting of health restrictions and the accelerating vaccination campaigns improved economic activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Barring a new wave of Delta or new variants emerging, GDP should reach pre-pandemic levels at the half year of 2022.

•

The policy-mix across European countries is supporting the rapid recovery of the economy. Monetary policy will remain accommodative in the Eurozone as the European central bank will leave main interest rates unchanged until the end of the year, but will progressively slow the pace of the bond purchase program and end its pandemic emergency purchase program at the end of march 2022.

Fiscal policy in the Eurozone is still active and will benefit from the Next Generation EU program of 900 billion euros to boost the economy.

•

The rebound in global demand after several months of partial activity, and the disruption of the supply-chain triggered a rebound in consumer prices. Rebound in inflation in the Euro area i.e. +2.4% on a rolling year basis, is coming from various sources including energy accounting for half of inflation in Europe, some commodities and selected goods. Moreover, core inflation gradually increased over 2021. Inflation should persist over 2022 reaching +3.5%, on a rolling year basis, as consequence of bottle necks before fading in 2023.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

3

Classification : Internal

ECONOMIC CONTEXT E C O N O M I C

C O N F I D E N C E

A D J U S T E D

A S

C O N S E Q U E N C E

Economic sentiment

O F

I N F L A T I O N

S U R G E

Unemployment rate 30

120

25

110

20

100

15

%

130

90

10

80

5

19 21 24

0

70

Spain

Italy

France

Euro Zone

Germany

United Kingdom

60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Euro Area Sources: Moody’s

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

UK Sources: Moody’s

•

The lifting of health restrictions from the accelerating vaccination campaigns are reducing uncertainty and boosting economic confidence. Sentiment across the Eurozone reached 113,8 points in Q4 2021. Indeed, the “whatever it takes” philosophy from the ECB and governments to rescue the economy and save jobs is fundamental to confidence. Nevertheless, spike in inflation and expectation about hike in interest rates contributed to degrade economic sentiment in Q4 2021.

•

Despite a new wave in Covid-19 cases in Q4 2021, inflation, hike in interest rate, and supply-chain disruption are the main concerns that could negatively impact the economic sentiment in the coming months.

•

The unemployment rate in the Euro zone peaked in 2020 due to health restrictions and remained stable in 2021. Nevertheless, the ease in health restriction, economic recovery and inflation should uplift employment in the short-term while the Next Generation EU program should uplift employment in the long term if countries are able to engage in formation, training programs to enhance employment transition. As results, we expect unemployment rate to gradually decrease by 2024. Unemployment rate in the Euro area should reach it lowest level by 2024.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

4

Classification : Internal

FINANCING MARKET E C B

P O L I C Y

I S

S T I L L

M A I N T A I N I N G

M O R T G A G E

Mortgage rates

R A T E S

A T

T H E I R

L O W E S T

L E V E L

Mortgage rates

7% 6,0% 6% 5,0%

5,0% 4,4%

5% 4,0%

Euro Area

France

Sources: European Central Bank

Germany

Italy

Spain

20

21 UK

Latvia

UK

0,8%0,8%

Finland

19

0,9%

Portugal

18

France

17

1,1%

Slovakia

16

1,3%1,3% 1,2%

Austria

15

1,5% 1,4%1,4% 1,4%

Euro Area

14

Sweden

13

Slovenia

12

Estonia

11

Cyprus

10

Lithuania

09

Denmark

08

Bulgaria

07

Ireland

0%

Norway

0,0%

Hungary

1%

Czech Republic

1,0%

1,7% 1,7% 1,6%

Poland

2%

1,9%

Germany

2,1%2,1%

2,0%

Luxembourg

2,3% 2,2%

Italy

2,5%

Spain

2,6%

Netherlands

3%

2,8% 2,7% 2,7%

Belgium

2,9%

3,0%

Malta

4%

Sources: European Central Bank

•

By setting the refinancing rate at 0.00%, ECB monetary policy resulted in the key interest rate of the European interbank, the 12-month Euribor, going into negative territory since the end of 2015; it is currently at -0.50% (end of Q4 2021).

•

The Eurozone economic recovery of +5.2% for 2021 along with a rebound in inflation (+2.6% in average in 2021) has potential to push the interest rate up. 10 year government bond in the Euro Zone increased by +35bps since the end of 2020 standing at +0.14% at the end of Q4 2021 as investors anticipate Central Bank moves to tighten policy. The European Central Bank will end up its pandemic emergency purchase program by march 2022 but decided not to increase key interest rate by the end of 2022.

•

Mortgage rates in the Euro zone remain stable at historically low levels of 1.31% in Q4 2021. Germany, Austria, France, Slovakia, Portugal and Finland provide the lowest mortgage rate of the Euro zone in a range of 0.8% and 1.3%.

•

In Q4 2021, loan supply standards slightly tighten due to lower risk tolerance from banks. Moreover, loan demand decreased in Q4 2021 after skyrocketed in Q2 2021. Tightening in credit conditions also contributed to reduce credit demand.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

5

Classification : Internal

CREDIT PRODUCTION IN EUROPE C R E D I T

I N

E U R O P E

R E A C H E S

I T S

H I G H E S T

H I S T O R I C A L

L E V E L

Credit production

EUROPE

+7.4%

700

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 Euro Area

600

Austria

Belgium

Estonia

Finland

France

•

Since Q4 2021 and on a rolling year basis, more than thousands billion euros have been granted in credit in the Euro zone. It reached an all time high in Q4 2021 with 1,047bn€ granted i.e. +7.4% compared to last year.

•

In Q4 2021 and on a rolling year basis, most European countries recorded a positive trend in lending except Austria, Croatia, Finland and Latvia where credit volumes decreased.

•

In Q4 2021 and on a rolling year basis credit volumes increased by +5% in Italy, Germany and Netherlands, by +8% in France, +35% in Spain and Portugal and +84% in UK (due to stamp duty holiday introduced in Q2 2020).

•

Since 2010, credit production twofold in the Euro area, Slovenia, more than twofold in Belgium and Lithuania, nearly threefold in Netherlands, and France and more than threefold in Austria, Estonia and Slovakia.

500

400 Germany

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

300

200

Lithuania

Netherlands

Portugal

Slovakia

100

Slovenia

Spain

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: European Central Bank

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

6

Classification : Internal

EUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL MARKETS

HOUSING TYPE IN EUROPE EUROPE 2020

100,0

53% of houses

90,0 80,0 70,0

• The housing stock in Europe is rather balanced between flats and houses (46,2% vs 52.9% respectively).

60,0

50,0

• We observe a smooth densification trend across Europe with more apartments built than houses since 2010.

40,0 30,0

• Nevertheless, there is a strong heterogeneity across Europe with countries such as Latvia, Spain, Switzerland and Estonia where flats represent more than 60% of the housing stock.

20,0 10,0 0,0

• Housing stock in Benelux, Balkan and Nordic countries as well as the United-Kingdom are mostly dominated by houses (i.e >60% of the housing stock).

Source: Eurostat

Flats

Houses

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

8

Classification : Internal

HOUSING TENURE IN EUROPE T H E

P R I V A T E

S E C T O R

D O M I N A T E S

T H E

R E N T A L

M A R K E T EUROPE 2020

70

30.3% of tenants +100bps vs 2010

60

• The tenancy rate in Europe slightly increased over the last 10 years to reach 30.3% in 2020.

Moreover, the private rental market is growing while the public rental market is on the decline.

50

%

40

30

• Historically, Southern and Eastern Europe has a high ownership rate.

Nevertheless, even if mortgage rate drastically declined over last years, the subprime and sovereign debt crisis triggered a shift in economic activity and employment that weaken households employment status and financial conditions.

20

10

0

Private rental market (2020)

Public rental market (2020)

Global tenancy rate (2010)

European Union tenancy rate (2020)

• Hence, the private rental sector has grown significantly over the past 10 years and will keep growing with the need of flexibility and mobility.

Source: Eurostat

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

9

Classification : Internal

TRANSACTION VOLUME IN EUROPE S O A R

I N

T R A N S A C T I O N

V O L U M E

A F T E R

A

Y E A R

O F

A D J U S T M E N T

Transaction volume

EUROPE

220

+16%

Portugal Denmark

200

Q3 2021 vs Q3 2020

ICELAND

(12 countries)

Spain France

180

+6.2%

Index 2015Q1=100

Italy

160

+3.0%

NORWAY

SWEDEN

DENMARK

Estonia Belgium

IRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

Transactions bounced back after the lockdown period and have overtaken their pre-crisis level in most countries excluding Ireland, Malta and Slovenia that are still recovering from the Covid crisis.

•

In Q3 2021 and on a rolling year basis, transaction volume increased by +32% in Spain, +28% in United Kingdom, +20.2% in France, +18.4% in Portugal, +17.8% in Denmark, +16.8% in Ireland and +16.6% benefitting from low interest rates, and homeworking opportunity.

•

Since 2015, transaction volume more than doubled in Portugal, rose by +80% in Denmark and +60% in France, Spain, Italy and Netherlands.

+10%

NETHERLANDS

+24% Ireland

+2.0% BELGIUM

+24%

Norway

100

•

+17%

Slovenia

120

Housing transaction volume soared by +16% in Q3 2021 and on a rolling year basis.

ESTONIA

Netherlands

140

• -12%

HUNGARY

UK

-17%

FRANCE

80

Sweden

+17%

+25%

Hungary 60 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

ITALY PORTUGAL

+18% >+5%

0% - -5%

0% - +5%

<-5%

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

+31% SPAIN

* Data for Italy, Estonia and Hungary are 1 or 2 quarters late

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

10

Classification : Internal

RESIDENTIAL PRICE GROWTH IN EUROPE H O U S E

P R I C E S

A R E

S K Y R O C K E T I N G

Residential price growth

EUROPE

200

+9.2%

Sweden Germany

180

Q3 2021 vs Q3 2020

ICELAND

FINLAND

+14%

+4.4%

Portugal

+14%

NORWAY

Index 2010Q1=100

160

UK

+9.8%

+21% LATVIA

Netherlands

UNITED KINGDOM

+10%

•

Since 2010, house prices increased by more than 90% in Sweden and Germany, around +60% in Portugal, +50% in United Kingdom, Poland and Netherlands, around +35% in Ireland and the Euro zone.

•

Cyprus, Spain, Italy and Ireland have not fully restored value from the Great Financial Crash remaining between -10% and -15% below to the pre-GFC level.

•

Due to teleworking opportunity, housing demand shifted indicating preference for larger and more recent dwellings close to natural amenities in the outskirts of metropolises with very well transportation infrastructure.

•

The negative real interest rate and inflation environment are fueling investment decisions.

+16%

DENMARK IRELAND

House prices in Europe are skyrocketing, growing at an annual rate of +9.2%.

ESTONIA

SWEDEN

Poland 140

•

LITHUANIA

+20%

+13% 120

Ireland

POLAND

NETHERLANDS

+6.5%

+17%

+8.8% GERMANY

France 100

BELGIUM

Finland

+12%

+8.2%

60

+7.4%

+9.9% 0% - +5%

<-5%

HUNGARY

+13%

ROMANIA

+7.0% +4.2%

BULGARIA

ITALY PORTUGAL

0% - -5%

+10%

+8.8%

Euro Area

>+5%

+22% +14%

FRANCE

Italy

SLOVAKIA

AUSTRIA

Spain

80

CZECH REP.

+4.3% SPAIN

TURKEY

+34%

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

11

Classification : Internal

RESIDENTIAL RENT GROWTH IN EUROPE R E N T S ,

O N

T H E

R I S E ,

A R E

S H O W I N G

R E S I L I E N C E EUROPE

Residential rent growth

+1.1% +1.3%

190 Ireland ICELAND

180 Netherlands 170

+2.6%

+0.7%

Poland

160

+1.4%

NORWAY

+1.3%

Spain Finland

Index 2010Q1 = 100

140

+1.3%

UNITED KINGDOM

•

LITHUANIA

+1.8%

UK

+5.8%

POLAND

NETHERLANDS

+9.3%

+6.3% GERMANY

Sweden BELGIUM

120 Germany

+1.3%

+2.2%

CZECH REP.

SLOVAKIA

+3.9%

+1.0%

AUSTRIA

110

-2.0%

Euro Area

+1.6%

France

HUNGARY

+5.2%

ROMANIA

+3.1% +0.2%

• BULGARIA

+2.3%

90

Italy

ITALY PORTUGAL

+2.0% >+2%

0% - -2%

0% - +2%

<-2%

-4.1%

6 years rents rose by more than

Between 2010 and 2021 housing rents +40% in Spain Ireland,speeds, between increased at and different 10% an 30% for We Italy, Germany, outperforming inflation. registered a Finland, and around Unitedrent growth ofSweden +80% in Ireland, +40% in Rents Spain, Polandremained and Kingdom. in France Netherlands around +25% in Finland, rather steady over the period.

Portugal United-Kingdom and Sweden.

Rents in France and Italy remained • contained Many seasonal furbished housing over the period respectively have been put in long zone term and rental +12% and +7%.

In the the Euro market as of the Germany, rentsconsequence increased over inflation (+16%).

Covid-19 crisis creating a surge in

+11%

130

100

+3.0%

DENMARK IRELAND

Portugal

+11%

Between 2015 and 2021 •• Residential rental values in the housing Euro zone hits new record with +1.1% rents increased at different speeds increases in Q4 2021 vs Q4Over 2020. the last outperforming inflation.

ESTONIA

SWEDEN

LATVIA

150

Q4 Q2 2021 2021 vs vs Q4 Q2 2020 2020

FINLAND

TURKEY

SPAIN

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

the rental supply driving rents down.

Much housing been put in in This seasonal phenomena is has even greater the long-term rental market as the Southern Europe such as Spain consequence of the Covid-19 crisis, and Italy. creating a surge in the rental supply and containing rents. This phenomena • is Moreover, theinrise in housing rents even greater the Southern Europe such as Spain, Italy and France incentivized many politicalthat to host a lot ofthe foreigners.

However, we implement rent regulation. observe a consolidation of rents and the rental market is bouncing back due to high demand trying to benefit from the adjustment in rents.

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

12

Classification : Internal

R E S I D E N T I A L AV E R A G E G R O S S Y I E L D S Y I E L D S

C O M P R E S S I O N

C A R R I E S

O N EUROPE

Average gross yields

5.6%

10%

-40bps

Finland ICELAND

9%

Q3 2021 vs Q3 2020 (12 countries) •• Favorable financing and Between 2015 andconditions 2021 housing good housing dynamics across Europe rents increased at different speeds triggered a compression of residential outperforming inflation. Over the last yields (i.e. -40 bps vs Q3 2020).

6 years rents rose by more than +40% in Spain and trend Ireland, between • The historical upward of yields in Finland, is the result 10% anIreland 30%andforSpain Italy, Germany, of a dynamic rental market a Finland, Sweden and and Unitedsharper riseRents in rental capital Kingdom. in values Francevsremained value. rather steady over the period.

FINLAND

Ireland

8.3% Spain

5.8%

Italy 7%

Portugal Netherlands

6%

2.2%

NORWAY

8%

SWEDEN

DENMARK IRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

8.1% Norway

5%

NETHERLANDS

4.5%

6.1%

•

GERMANY

France BELGIUM

3.2%

UK

4%

AUSTRIA

Germany

2.6%

FRANCE

3%

Austria

5.2%

Sweden

2%

6.4% >7%

3% - 5%

5% - 7%

<3%

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

7.7% ITALY

PORTUGAL

Yields reach their lowest level in

• Portugal, Many seasonal furbished housing Netherlands, Norway, France, have been put in the long term and rental United-Kingdom, Germany Austria Sweden. market as consequence of the Covid-19 crisis creating a surge in • The low volatility compared to other the rental supply driving rents down. assets and the resilience of the This phenomena even greater residential sector isis fueling investor in the Southern Europe such Spain appetite. Furthermore, the realas estate and Italy. yields convergence and the low level of European bonds tends to increase the competitiveness residential.rents • relative Moreover, the rise inof housing

7.4% SPAIN

•

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

incentivized

many

political

The lack of existing assets pushes implement the rent regulation. investors to create long-term partnership with developers to invest in Build-to-Rent product to satisfy demand.

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

to

13

Classification : Internal

P R I C E T O I N C O M E R AT I O I N E U R O P E R I S E I N P R I C E S

P R I C E

T O

I N C O M E

R A T I O

D U E

T O

T H E

S U R G E

I N

H O U S E EUROPE

Less affordable housing markets

Most affordable housing markets

9 years

20

Q3 2021 18

17,6

2021-Q3

16,9

10 years average

•

The Price-to-income ratio shows the affordability of the housing market in number of years of household income.

•

In Q3 2021, households spend around 9 years of their income to afford a 70sqm dwelling. This is a 9 months increases compared to 10 years average.

•

The Price-to-income ratio increased in 20 countries out of 24 compared to its 10 years average.

The most important increase occurred in Portugal, Bulgaria and Austria.

•

It shows that house prices increased faster than households income reducing affordability and increasing the probability of overvalued market compared to fundamentals.

•

When buying housing, the most affordable markets in Europe relative to household income are France, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Norway, Finland and Latvia.

16 14,3

14,2

14

13,9 12,5

12

11,5 11,0 10,4

10

9,6

9,5

9,5

9,4

9,3

9,1

9,0

8,9 8,1

8

7,1

7,0

6,6 6,0

6

5,8

4

2

0

Sources: Eurostat, Moody’s, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

14

Classification : Internal

AFFORDABILITY INDEX M A R K E T S

A R E

G L O B A L L Y

F A I R L Y

V A L U E D ,

Housing purchasing power

S U P P O R T E D

B Y

H I G H

L E V E L

O F

A F F O R D A B I L I T Y

Affordability ratio

80

50% 72

45% Loose

40%

70

Tight 60

57

30%

54

sqm

50 50

46

44

20% 43

41

40 30

40

37

10% 33

32

31

30

29 25

24

19% 14%

11%

9%

6%

4% 10 year equilibrium value

0% 0%

20

-10%

10

-20%

0

-30%

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

-1%

-3% -7%

-7%

-9%

-12% -14% -16% -21%

•

The affordability index is a complete indicator that takes into account several effects such as the change in mortgage rates, household income and house prices. It enables to compute the number of square meter a household can purchase earning a local median income, borrowing money over 20 years at the local mortgage rate, for a local average price per square meter.

•

In Q3 2021, households in Finland, Italy Norway and Spain can purchase dwellings of 50 sqm or more. In France, Germany, Slovenia, Netherlands and Denmark the purchasable surface is in a range of 40 sqm and 50 sqm while in Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, households can afford a maximum of 30 sqm.

•

Compared to last year, housing purchasing power dropped almost everywhere excluding Romania and Spain where it increases. The most important dropped happened in Austria (-6.5 sqm), Latvia (-6.3 sqm), Czech Republic (-4.8 sqm), Germany (-4.2sqm), Denmark (-3.9 sqm) and Netherland (-3.2 sqm).

•

Finally, most European housing markets seem particularly balanced or undervalued and are still facing potential growth in house prices. However, some markets show signs of overvaluation such as Austria, Czech Republic, Germany and Portugal where housing purchasing power is well under the 10 year equilibrium value.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

15

Classification : Internal

BUY-VS-RENT ANALYSIS

P R I C E T O R E N T R AT I O I N E U R O P E P R I C E S

C O N T I N U E

T O

I N C R E A S E

F A S T E R

T H A N

R E N T S EUROPE

Better to rent 50

Better to buy

+5.9%

49,1

Q3 2021 vs Q3 2020 (11 countries) 44,5

45

2021-Q3

10 years average

•

Over the last year, the Price-to-Rent ratio increased by +5.9% on average across 11 countries.

•

Compared to the 10 years average, the Price-to-Rent ratio increased almost everywhere, except in Italy and Finland, where it slightly decreased. Sweden, Austria and Germany recorded the highest increase in the Price-to-rent ratio.

•

The high growth in house prices vs rents suggests that the rental market is becoming more and more affordable compared to buying. Yields compression also suggests that rents should increase in countries where it becomes more affordable to rent in order to rebalance the investment profitability.

•

In Q3 2021, the Price-to-Rent ratio is favorable to the rental market for all countries where the ratio is above 20 such as Sweden, Austria, Germany, United Kingdom and France.

•

However, this indicator is incomplete because it doesn’t take into account the borrowing capacity through the financing market.

40

35

33,0

30

25

23,5 20,1

20

18,2

17,3

17,2

16,1

15,4

15

13,1

10

5

0 Sweden

Austria

Germany

UK

France

Norway

Portugal

Netherlands

Ireland

Spain

Italy

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

17

Classification : Internal

B U Y- V S - R E N T I N E U R O P E A U S T R I A , G E R M A N Y , M A R K E T D E P T H

N O R W A Y ,

A N D

F R A N C E

H A V E

H I G H E R

R E N T A L

Buy vs rent ratio 2,5

2,3

2,0

1,8

1,5 1,1

•

The buy vs rent ratio is the ratio between the monthly mortgage repayment and the monthly rental value for the same surface. It gives an indication of market tension. The higher the ratio, the greater the cost of buying vs renting for a same surface.

•

The ratio shows that it is better to buy than renting in Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Finland. Indeed, households would gain +25sqm in Finland, +14sqm in Italy, +11sqm in Spain, +4sqm in Portugal and +2sqm in Netherlands when buying rather than renting a dwelling.

•

However, it is the opposite in Austria, Germany, Norway and France where it is cheaper for households to rent rather than to buy a dwelling. Moreover, households would afford +4sqm in France, +6sqm in Norway, +34sqm in Germany and up to +47sqm in Austria when renting rather buying a dwelling.

1,1 0,9

1,0

0,8

0,8

0,7

0,6

0,5 0,0

Austria

Germany

Norway

France

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Italy

Finland

Difference in surface between buying and renting in Europe 30

25 14

20

11 4

10

2

0 -4

-10

-6

-20 -30 -34

-40 -50

-47

-60 Finland

Italy

Spain

Portugal

Netherlands

France

Norway

Germany

Austria

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

18

Classification : Internal

NEED FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING

HOUSING COST BURDEN S H A R E M O R E

O F

T H E

T H A N

P O P U L A T I O N

4 0 %

O F

T H E I R

S P E N D I N G

I N C O M E

I N

H O U S I N G

EUROPE 2020

2020 vs 2010

12.3%

2020

GERMANY

+600bps

UNITED

-160 bps

< 5%

FINLAND

5% - 10% KINGDOM

FRANCE

NORWAY

10% - 15%

+120bps

ESTONIA

SWEDEN

> 15%

• Housing cost burden is a specific indicator of the share of the population that spends more than 40% of their disposable income on accommodation.

LATVIA

NETHERLANDS

-390bps

ITALY

+160bps

SPAIN

-100bps

DENMARK

IRELAND

LITHUANIA

UNITED KINGDOM NETHERLANDS

• Over the last 10 years, the housing cost burden in Europe rose by +70bps.

POLAND GERMANY

POLAND

-610bps

IRELAND

+10bps

CZECH REP.

BELGIUM

+90bps

AUSTRIA

BELGIUM

FRANCE

CZECH

REPUBLIC

LUXEMBOURG

HUNGARY

• Countries with a high share of ownership rate have a lower level of cost burden because many households are loan free.

Likewise, countries with a high level of public rental market have a lower housing cost burden.

ROMANIA

-160bps BULGARIA

+560bps

ITALY PORTUGAL

SPAIN

TURKEY

Source: Eurostat

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

20

Classification : Internal

HOUSING COST ON DISPOSABLE INCOME A F F O R D A B L E H O U S I N G S O U T H E R N E U R O P E

N E E D E D

I N

W E S T E R N ,

N O R T H E R N

A N D EUROPE 2020

70

20% 60

50

• Accommodation takes 20% of household disposable income in Europe on average, having slightly decreased over the last 10 years (-150bps).

%

40

30

• In most countries, most vulnerable households spend more than a third of their income in housing excluding CEE countries, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta.

20

10

• This statistic shows the need to develop affordable housing in Europe mostly in countries such as Greece, Denmark, Germany United-Kingdom, Netherlands, Sweden and Norway.

0

Total Source: Eurostat

Below 60% of median equivalised income

Above 60% of median equivalised income *2018 for Iceland and United Kingdom

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

21

Classification : Internal

CONSTRUCTION

HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE R E B O U N D

I N

H O U S I N G

D E V E L O P M E N T

Housing development intensity

A F T E R

L O C K D O W N

P E R I O D S

Housing permits 800.000

20,6

700.000

20

600.000 500.000

15

400.000 10

8,3

7,0 6,6 6,3

300.000 6,2 5,6 5,5 5,5

5,2 5,1

5

4,5 4,3 4,2

3,7 3,0

0

200.000 2,7 2,3 2,2 2,0

1,6 1,4 1,0 1,0 100.000 0

Housing permits per 1,000 inhabitants

Numbers of dwellings (12 months cumulated)(rhs)

Sources: Eurostat, National statistics offices, Moody’s, BNPPRE

Numbers of dwellings (12 months cumulated)

Number of dwellings for 1,000 inhabitants

300 25

250 200 150 100 50

2010

2011

2012

Poland Czech Republic Belgium Spain

2013

2014

2015

2016

Sweden Austria Portugal Slovenia

2017

2018

2019

Ireland Finland France Italy

2020

2021

Germany Netherlands Euro Area

Sources: Eurostat

•

Housing development in the Euro zone has recovered from the lockdown periods of 2020 that froze the construction sector for several months. In Q3 2021, we observed a rebound in housing permits +15.9% compared to the same period last year. This rebound is a base effect compared to the drop in housing permits during lockdown in Q2 2020. Even though housing permits recovered from the health crisis and reach their pre-pandemic levels, we observe a ceiling level compared to previous quarters of 2021.

•

The highest absolute value of housing permits are recorded in Poland (787,700), France (468,700), Germany (372,184) and the United-Kingdom (372,196).

•

Nevertheless, the highest relative values - the housing development intensity per 1,000 inhabitants - are recorded in Poland (20.6), Finland (8.3), France (7.0) Austria (6.6) and Estonia (6.3) . The lowest intensities are registered in Bulgaria (1.0), Italy (1.0), Latvia (1.4), Hungary (1.6) and Slovenia (2.0).

•

We expect the construction sector to grow in the coming years supported by the Next Generation program from UE that support zero carbon and energy efficiency. However, the supply chain disruption, the increase in commodity prices affecting construction costs and the lack of labor force in the sector could challenge the growth in the sector.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

23

Classification : Internal

INVESTMENT MARKET

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT VOLUME EUROPE

2021 vs 2020

+60%

FINLAND

2021 vs 2020

1.9 NORWAY

+196%

GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE

0.5

-58%

1.0

7.1 UNITED KINGDOM

11.2

+48%

NETHERLANDS

3.4

+16%

POLAND

+351%

DENMARK

+131%

SWEDEN

+58%

•

Residential investment in Europe is supported by strong levels of liquidity in the economy. Moreover, investment is encouraged by healthy fundamentals such as positive structural population growth, the need for affordable housing, and capital values that carry on keeping up upward.

FRANCE

•

Compared to other assets, we observe high levels of risk premium, far above the long term average. Likewise, yields convergence between office and residential yields stimulate the relative competitiveness of residential.

•

Finally, the residential asset is less risky than other real estate assets in terms of volatility and enables to dilute vacancy risk due to its multi-tenant profile. Nevertheless, the lack of product impulse the creation of partnerships between developers and investors for BTR assets.

0.7 CZECH REP.

0.1

0.1 BELGIUM

POLAND

GERMANY

53.0 SPAIN

Residential investment volume in Europe reaches 98Bn€ in 2021 i.e. +60% compared to last year.

8.0 IRELAND

ITALY

•

DENMARK

+11%

NETHERLANDS

SWEDEN

-2%

AUSTRIA

SWITZERLAND

1.7

1.0

6.3 ITALY

0.5

PORTUGAL

0.3 ≥ €10bn

€1-2bn

€5-10bn

< €1bn

SPAIN

2.4

€2-5bn Source: RCA, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

25

Classification : Internal

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT MARKET IN EUROPE R E S I D E N T I A L

N E A R L Y

H I T S

T H E

3 0 %

O F

Share of each country in residential investment volume

T O T A L

I N V E S T M E N T

V O L U M E

I N

E U R O P E

Share of residential in total investment volume Germany

13%

70% United Kingdom

8% 5% 6%

5 year average 11%

7%

5% 2% 3%

33%

2021

54%

61% 60%

Sweden

50%

Netherlands

40%

Spain

8%

55% 48% 40% 34%

39%

30% 20% 14%

20%

France

22% 15% 15%

18% 18%

Denmark

9%

0%

15% 8%

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

23%

36% 31% 26%

7%

10%

11%

26% 23%

33%

Rest of Europe

19 20 21

19 20 21

19 20 21

19 20 21

19 20 21

19 20 21

19 20 21

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

•

In 2021, residential investment volume reaches 98 billion euros i.e. +60% compared to last year and represents nearly 30% of the total investment volume in Europe.

•

Residential in Germany represents 54% of the residential investment volume in Europe followed by United Kingdom (11%), Sweden (8%) and Denmark.(7%). In 2021, Germany and Denmark increased market share compared

•

In Denmark and Germany, residential accounts for 61% and 55% respectively of the total investment volume while in other countries it only accounts for 15%-20%. Residential exposure remain rather limited in France, Spain and United Kingdom compared to other assets classes. We expect an increase in residential exposure in the coming years in France, United Kingdom and Spain.

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

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Classification : Internal

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT VOLUME IN EUROPE EUROPE Rank

Metropolis

Volume

% change vs 5-year average

1

Berlin

30.5 bn€

+236%

2

London

4.4 bn€

+8%

3

Denmark –other

3.7 bn€

+126%

4

Stockholm

3.5 bn€

+70%

5

Copenhagen

2.7 bn€

+87%

6

Amsterdam

2.5 bn€

-23%

7

Hamburg

2.2 bn€

+103%

8

Sweden – other

1.8 bn€

+27%

9

Paris

1.7 bn€

+10%

10

Munich

1.5 bn €

+72%

•

The 10 first markets accounts for more than 55% of total residential investment volume in Europe.

•

Even though Berlin used to be ranked the first market in Europe to attract investment, this year the city experienced a +236% growth due to the takeover of Deutsche Wohnen SE by Vonovia and Akelius by Heimstaden.

Furthermore, we record 40 transactions greater than 100M€.

•

Denmark markets also recorded strong growth driven by the takeover by Heimstaden of Akelius and the 1.3 billion euros portfolio from Niam acquired by Heimstaden.

•

The decrease in investment in Amsterdam can be explained, partially, by the change in transaction taxes.

Source: RCA, BNPPRE

E U R O P E A N

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R E P O R T

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Classification : Internal

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT BY SIZE BAND M O R E

A N D

L A R G E R

T R A N S A C T I O N S

Breakdown in volume

Breakdown by number 1% 2%

<5M€

9%

1% 2% 6% 35%

6%

5M€ - 10M€

4%

<5M€

11%

5M€ - 10M€

10% 11%

13%

10M€ - 20M€

16%

6%

12%

3%

13%

10M€ - 20M€

21%

5 year average

45%

2021

20M€ - 50M€ 16%

5 year average

2021

50M€ - 100M€

50M€ - 100M€ 29%

16%

26%

30%

100M€ - 200M€

15%

20M€ - 50M€

28%

100M€ - 200M€

18%

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

>200M€

>200M€

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

•

In 2021, we record a total of 1,710 deals vs 1,341 deals in 2020 i.e. +28%.

•

In 2021, transactions greater than 100M€ represent 60% of the residential investment volume i.e. +9 percentage points compared to the 5-year average. Furthermore, even though such transactions represent only 4% of total transactions on the market we observe a rise compared to the last 5 years. We record a total of 168 transactions greater than 100M€ in 2021 vs an average of 60 transactions the last 5 years.

•

Transactions between 10M€-20M€ and 20M€-50M€ represents 26% and 29% respectively of all transactions, declining slightly compared to the last 5 years. We record 440 deals for the segment 10M€-20M€ and 489 deals for the segment 20M€-50M€.

E U R O P E A N

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R E P O R T

28

Classification : Internal

BREAKDOWN OF INVESTMENT BY BUYER AND SELLER TYPE C O U P L E

O F

T A K E

O V E R

O F

P R O P E R T Y

C O M P A N I E S

Buyer typology

Seller typology Funds 5%

19%

15%

2%

Developer/Owner/Operator

Property Companies & REITs

20%

Developer/Owner/Operator

Insurance

21%

5 year average

10%

Property Companies & REITs 5%2%

Funds

2%

2%

39%

2021

Bank 49%

Insurance 32%

5 year average

Bank

2021

Corporates

Corporates

Public sector

Public sector

24% Private investor

41%

32% 22%

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

49%

Private investor

Cooperative

Cooperative

Other

Other

Sources: RCA, BNPPRE

•

In 2021, Funds, Property Companies and Developer/Owner/Operator were the most active in the market. They represented 39%, 32% and 21% of the residential total investment volume respectively.

Nevertheless, we observe that Property Companies and Developer/Owner/Operator tend to gain market share because they represent a larger share of the market in 2021 vs the last 5 years.

•

The top 5 buyers are Vonovia SE (26.5 billion €) with the takeover of Deutsche Wohnen, Heimstaden (12.9 billion €) with the takeover of Akelius, Axa (2.6 billion €) for its joint venture with In’li, Patrizia (2.4 billion €) with its PRS in Barcelona (800M€) and its Carossa Quarter (750M€) located in Berlin and finally Leg immobilien (1.7 billion €) with the Adler portfolio acquisition for 1.3 billion €.

•

In 2021, most important sellers are Property companies and Developer/Owner/Operator i.e. 49% and 32% respectively.

E U R O P E A N

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Classification : Internal

CROSS BORDER INVESTMENT IN EUROPE LESS AMERICAS

BUT

MORE ASIATIC

8%

INVESTORS

1%

•

In 2021, the residential investment market in Europe have been essentially driven by domestic and European investors. They represented 67% and 24% of the total residential investment volume i.e. +12pp compared to the 5year average.

•

In 2021, Americas represented 8% of the total residential investment volume vs 18.5% the last 5 years. The drop is explained by the stronger dynamic of housing markets in United States.

•

In 2021, Asia & Pacific investors increased the residential exposure in Europe. We observe a +70% increase in investment.

•

Inversely, American investors reduced investment by -16%.

24%

67%

DOMESTIC EUROPE AMERICAS ASIA & PACIFIC

MIDDLE EAST

E U R O P E A N

R E S I D E N T I A L

R E P O R T

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Classification : Internal

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