The Willow Project is an environmental threat, but not as huge as we think

The Willow Project, the new biggest oil-drilling project in Alaska approved by President Joe Biden’s administration, has sparked controversy among environmental activists.

According to the Washington Post, it is estimated to create enough oil to emit 9.2 million metric tons of planet-warming carbon pollution annually. For this, the project has been called a “carbon bomb” or a “betrayal” by many organizations. But, is it really the huge environmental threat the media outlets are portraying?

Not really. While it is clear that Willow will definitely bring irreversible damage to the environment — especially to the Arctic landscape in Alaska — the environmental impacts are not as big as we thought they would be.

Tom Birkland, associate dean for research and engagement in the School of Public and International Affairs, said like any other industrial project built in a sensitive area such as the permafrost in Alaska, there will be local impacts on the ecosystem. But on a bigger scale, it won’t have as much of an effect.

“You’re gonna have things like melting soils, or you could perhaps have some chemical runoff,” Birkland said. “But the overall impact on the big scheme around the world, this project is not that big. … If this is the only drilling project that is approved in the next 10 or 15 years, it won’t have a noticeable impact. It’ll just be part of a bigger system.”

The project entails the construction of a processing facility, roads, an airfield, pipelines and a gravel mine in or near the habitats of caribou, grizzly bears and several species of birds. Its impact will directly affect the surrounding environment where the drilling will take place.

Initially, ConocoPhillips — Alaska’s largest crude oil producer — sought approval for five drilling pads in the middle of Alaska’s Arctic tundra and wetland. However, the U.S. Department of the Interior issued a Record of Decision substantially reducing the size of the project by denying two of the five drill sites. This would reduce the number of drill pads by 40%, thus lowering freshwater use and eliminating all infrastructure related to the two rejected drill sites. Limiting the project would reduce the potential impacts on caribou migration routes and yellow-billed loon nesting areas.

If built, the project will still be a large new fossil fuel development, producing up to 180,000 barrels per day. According to the administration’s own estimates, this would generate oil emission that would be equivalent to adding 2 million gas-powered cars to the roads.

However, Birkland said we can’t pinpoint this project as something that’s going to increase global temperature.

“The amount of oil we’re talking about is about 1.5% of the daily production in the United States; it’s very small,” Birkland said.

In 2022, the U.S. produced 11,850,000 barrels per day, becoming the second highest oil production that the country has seen since 2019. Considering the estimates made by the government over the next 30 years, Willow’s production of barrels per day doesn’t seem a staggering number as the ones we have now. Still, this project will add to the current value, thus exacerbating the environmental effects of oil drilling.

Even scaled down, the Willow Project will still be the largest new oil extraction project on federal lands — one that will certainly do irreversible damage to the Arctic. While we cannot stop the project from proceeding as it has received the green light from Biden, it’s important to highlight that it’s setting environmental issues back into the political agenda and in daily conversations.

“Protecting the environment is now a permanent feature and is an institutionalized feature of the American political agenda,” Birkland said. “It has to be paid attention to. You can’t just ignore it. What I’m trying to say is that people shouldn’t just give up simply because they didn’t win on the Willow Project. There are other things that we can work on.”

It may appear, based on the outcome of the Willow Project, that protesting isn’t accomplishing changes in favor of the environment. But that’s not true — it was the protests that led the administration to reject two of the five drilling sites. It’s crucial to continue the fight for the environment since it unites young people to advocate for our planet and hold our politicians accountable for their actions moving forward.