Facts & Figures November 2023

MESSAGE FROM THE GENERAL SECRETARY: THERE CAN BE NO TRANSITION WITHOUT A WORKERS’ TRANSITION In March a report by City firm Goldman Sachs predicted that generative AI could add 7% to global GDP. Artificial Intelligence will deliver high growth, they crowed. There was more than a little hot air behind the statement and that hid the inevitable flip side.

That they thought it would come at the cost of 300 million jobs, mainly in advanced economies like ours.

This provides a salutary lesson about talk of growth and the spin behind much of it. Higher GDP does not necessarily equal a boom for workers and those doing the spinning are often motivated by just making the pie bigger, not about how it is divided. The truth is that without power, workers’ will lose out and those at the top will gain.

A few years ago, Oxford Economics produced figures along the same lines, predicting that 8.5% of all manufacturing jobs would be lost to automation more generally. Plus, we know that up to two thirds of occupations will be affected by new technology, whether that be stevedores in the docks, cashiers in supermarkets or bank clerks on what remains of our high street. It is reality that workers will face profound challenges in the years to come.

At the same time decarbonisation will inevitably lead to change and again the question will be, who pays for crisis and who gains? Will it be the mega corporations like overseas steel giants Tata and Jingye who create chaos out of change? Firms who have no shame in creating grotesque spectacles, demanding the public effectively pay to sack their fellow citizens while they restore private balance sheets for overseas shareholders.

For negotiators it is no secret that together automation and decarbonisation will deliver many of our biggest ever challenges. In light of this, the need for real industrial co-ordination, firstly within Unite and then across the borders that are so easily spanned by multinational companies, is absolutely clear. It can no longer be

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

avoided and solidarity cannot remain a slogan for banners on symbolic marches.

Together with a more effective industrial strategy, we are going to have to be more proactive than ever. If we are going to have any chance of protecting our members we can’t afford for employers to make the first move. Whether a front foot approach is crystallised through attempting to negotiate job security agreements ahead of time, or by producing real Workers’ Plans to save jobs, the way ahead is clear.

Waiting cannot be an option and that is why I am investing in the detailed skills and information we need to be on the front foot. It’s why we are producing more and better information for negotiators like Facts and Figures and forensic accounts, as well as developing approaches like the Workers’ Plan for the Economy. Because we can’t just let transition happen to us or rely on politicians. Collective Bargaining, the fundamental purpose of any Union, will be key.

In solidarity, Sharon

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Table of Contents Message from the General Secretary: There can be no transition without a workers’ transition

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1.

What have we delivered through collective bargaining? 15

1.1

Unite members in buses, steel processing and manufacturing have won pay increases of up to 26% through collective bargaining this month

15

1.2

Winning in the Workplace: First Bus engineers dispute resolved after pay deal 18

2.

What other settlements have been reached?

25

2.1

Unite members have secured a massive £420 million through industrial action since August 2021

25

Bus workers have been involved in 171 disputes since August 2021, securing a £3,170 average pay increase

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We cannot afford to erode public sector pay and conditions further with vacancies bringing services to their knees

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The Government needs to make different choices to reverse the 19% pay cut workers in the public sector have endured since 2010

29

2.1.1 2.2 2.2.1

2.2.2

Unite is campaigning for all NHS workers to receive the COVID19 payment they are due 29

2.3

The minimum and living wages are far too low, but it is up to organised workers to set the bar 30

3.

What's the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

3.1

Inflation remains high at 6.1% and an extended period of high rising prices has had a massive impact on real wages 37

3.2

Focusing on the annual percentage change in inflation is now masking price increases that are now baked in 38

3.3

Prices of vital categories such as clothing and food are rising faster than the overall inflation rate, at 13% and 10% respectively 39

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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3.4

oReporting the inflation rate using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – rather than the more accurate Retail Price Index (RPI) – disguises the extent of the cost-of-living crisis 41

3.5

Interest rate hikes are piling misery on millions who have relied on cheap finance to partially fill the gap of real terms wage cuts

3.6

Prices for new rentals are up over 12% in London and 10% in the rest of the country, making rents even more unaffordable 44

3.6.1

An average rental home costs a quarter of household income in England, Northern Ireland and Wales 46

3.7

Childcare costs in the UK are the most expensive in the developed world

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4.

What is driving inflation?

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4.1

Corporate profiteering is driving inflation, not wages

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4.1.1

The five main channels of profiteering

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5.

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

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5.1

Workers have suffered a generation of pay decline and get nearly 11% less today than in 1997

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5.1.1

With government data falling into decline, Unite is taking the lead on sourcing data to benchmark our members’ pay and conditions 62

5.2

For over a century real wage increases were the norm

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5.3

Prices have been rising faster than wages for over a decade, leaving the average worker over £700 a month worse off in real terms compared to 2010

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5.4

Household incomes are nearly £18,000 a year worse off

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5.4.1

Savings are down, while household debt is up to an average of £71,000 per household 68

5.5

The wealthiest 10% of individuals hold almost half of the UK's total wealth 68

5.6

The lowest 10% of earners are making £8,700 a year or less, with a record number employed in low-paid jobs

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Profits have grown twice as fast as wages and salaries in the last year

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5.7

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6.

What about Terms and Conditions? Are they getting better?

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6.1

Workers are seeing attacks on their pensions with a 63% reduction in the availability of decent schemes over the last decade 75

6.1.1

A single person would require a £645,000 pension pot to achieve a comfortable lifestyle in retirement

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How are different demographic groups being impacted?

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7.1

On average, women are paid over 14% less than men

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7.2

Government pay data is failing to address systemic biases against BAEM workers

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8.

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

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8.1

The UK economy is worth £2.5 trillion and is growing, but bosses and shareholders are reaping more rewards than workers 91

8.1.1

Unite is producing tools and reports for Officers and Reps to fight back against flawed economic arguments

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Official forecasts predict slow-but-steady growth to continue in 2024, but workplace power is needed to ensure workers benefit

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8.2

8.3

Manufacturing and construction are among the fastest-growing sectors 95

9.

What is going on in the world of corporate finance?

9.1

Stock markets have risen in the last year, led by the US S&P 500 with a 22% rise 99

9.2

As companies increase their wealth and power through mergers and acquisitions we must protect jobs, pay and conditions 100

9.2.1

US chip company Vishay Intertechnology has agreed to buy the UK's largest chip company, Newport Wafer Fab

9.2.2

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The US betting giant DraftKings has discussed making a takeover bid for the betting group 888, which owns William Hill 102 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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9.3

Unite is campaigning against the proposed merger of Three and Vodafone, which threatens 1,600 jobs losses and increases in mobile phone bills of up to £300 per year

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10.

Where are we on strike?

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10.1

Unite members in over 30 employers across Britain and Ireland are due to take industrial action in November

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10.1.1 Go North East bus workers step-up strike action with all-out strike

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10.1.2 Dithering by Warrington council means that refuse strikes will extend into the festive season 112 10.2

Picket line report: 500 workers at Scottish Water will take 48 days of strike action in a dispute over pay and grading 113

10.3

Balloting Brief: Members from 34 workplaces are balloting for industrial action to fight for jobs, pay and conditions

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10.3.1 Offshore drillers working for Odfjell are being balloted over the company's refusal to reform working rotas and provide paid annual leave 116 10.3.2 Workers at Chivas Brothers distilleries and warehouses balloted over inadequate pay offer

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10.3.3 Oxfam workers across the UK are balloting for strike action for the first time after rejecting a substandard pay offer

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10.4

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US automotive union UAW recently secured 25%+ pay increases with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis

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11.

Which negotiations take place this month?

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11.1

Around 15,000 members will be negotiating with over 60 employers in November, including members at Ford, JLR and Lothian Buses 125

12.

Who do our members really work for?

12.1

Around half of Unite's members are likely employed by companies headquartered outside the UK 131

12.2

Three-quarters of Unite members are employed by companies that generate annual revenue of £1 billion or more 132

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What market power do we have?

13.1

Collective bargaining has driven pay growth up to around 8%137 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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13.2

Demand for workers remains at historic highs, improving opportunities to push for large wage increases

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13.3

Labour shortages are highest in the accomodation and food sector 140

13.4

Just under a quarter of employees in the UK are trade union members, but Unite's membership is growing 141

13.4.1 Trade unions matter beyond the workplace: when workers organise, act and win collectively, society benefits from reduced inequality

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13.4.2 Actions speak louder than words: we grow membership where we take a stand

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14.

lasgowWhat is happening to profits?

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14.1

Companies are squeezing wages while enjoying huge increases in profits, which are up 175% compared to 2020

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14.2

Banks and utilities companies continue to make huge profits 150

14.2.1 Profits of the big four banks continue to thrive, and members should demand their fair share in upcoming pay rounds 150 14.2.2 BP and Shell have posted massive profits totalling £110 billion over the last two years 151 14.2.3 Water companies are raking it in, recording combined operating profits of £2.2 billion in 2023 152 14.3

UK companies invest far less than their peers, with investment levels averaging just 17.9% of GDP, compared to 20%+ in comparable countries 154

Introducing the Financial Insider

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14.4

Accountant's Corner: Demystifying profits

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15.

How much of the pie is going to CEOs and shareholders?

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FTSE 100 chief executive pay in 2022 was 118 times that of the average worker

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15.1

15.1.1 Astrazeneca boss Pascal Soriot topped the CEO fat cat league in 2022, raking in over £15 million 161 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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15.2

162

15.3

UK companies paid out another £55.5 billion in cash to shareholders in 2022 through share buybacks 164

16.

What international economic factors are influencing the ability to pay?

16.1

169

Economic growth in the UK's largest export partners is expected to continue in 2024, including a forecasted £168 billion increase in the US 169

16.1.1 Exports make up nearly a third of the UK's national income

170

16.2

Supply chain disruptions are now below normal levels

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16.2.1 Brexit has introduced trading frictions between the UK and EU, but it's not clear there has been any permanent change to exports to the EU

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16.3 16.4 16.5

Companies' cost of inputs are falling, which means more money available for collective bargaining

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The UK is in the process of joining the CPTPP trade agreement, which could threaten jobs and public services

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The value of the British pound fell compared to the U.S. dollar, which is good for companies that export 181

16.5.1 The price of British exports relative to imports is at the highest level in years

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17.

Is the workplace getting safer?

187

17.1

Work-related ill health is rising, with 722,000 new cases in 2021/22

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18.

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

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18.1

Threat of fresh GH London strikes in defence of a victimised rep forces last-minute talks with employer

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18.2

The Tory anti-strikes bill is a major attack on organised workers in key sectors 194

19.

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

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Information disclosure is going to become a bigger issue at the bargaining table

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19.1

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Shareholders are enjoying a dividend bonanza, while workers' pay lags behind

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

19.1.1 Example: Compensation Data in the Finance Sector 19.2

20.

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irst GlasgowEmployers continue to underestimate the seriousness of the cost of living crisis by using inaccurate inflation forecasts

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Bitesized Bargaining: Work Voice Pay's tools for bargaining to improve sick pay

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20.1

Work Voice Pay has tools to gain or improve sick pay rights in your workplace to ensure workers get more than the insufficient legal minimum 209

21.

Are there any upcoming industrial committee meetings?

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21.1

Unite's Finance Combine will next meet on 12 December

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22.

Appendix 1: List of 2023 pay deals above 10%

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SECTION ONE

VICTORIES 1.

What have we delivered through collective bargaining? 15

1.1

Unite members in buses, steel processing and manufacturing have won pay increases of up to 26% through collective bargaining this month

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Winning in the Workplace: First Bus engineers dispute resolved after pay deal

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1.2

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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Unite are winning more than we've ever won before. We've seen £420 million put back into members pockets through disputes alone in the last two years. This is the tip of the iceberg as Unite remains fully focused on the fight for better Jobs, Pay and Conditions.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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1.1

What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Unite members in buses, steel processing and manufacturing have won pay increases of up to 26% through collective bargaining this month Unite members and Reps are leading the fight for jobs, pay and conditions, with a number of major victories in the last month.

Backed by their members and the resources of their union, Officers and Reps have secured a number of significant wins on pay and conditions.

Bus engineers in the Midlands and structural steel workers in Co Fermanagh have led the way with double-digit pay deals of up to 26%. These wins show how a committed focus on building power in the workplace leads to hard cash in our members' pockets.

Since Sharon Graham was elected General Secretary in August 2021, Unite members have secured £420 million for members, winning over 80% of disputes. Evidence of the 'Unite Premium' that comes from being a member of our union continues to grow as a result, encouraging more workers to join.

In the last year, inflation-busting pay increases have been secured across regions and sectors. From airport workers in Luton to bus drivers on the East Coast of Scotland, pay increases of up to 28% have gone into members' pockets.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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Figure 1 Top 10 Unite wins over the last year, all above RPI inflation

Leading the way this month were 100 Trent Barton bus engineers across sites in Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicester, who have secured a pay rise of between 20%-25.8%. Apprentice engineers have also benefited from the deal, and will now receive 7% higher pay than the national minimum for apprentices.1 In the steel sector, Unite members in Co Fermanagh employed by Severfield, the UK’s largest specialist structural steel company, secured a pay deal which will be worth up to 11.2% over the year for most members. In addition, workers will receive a one-off cost of living payment of £700. Importantly, the deal also includes a commitment to undertake a benchmarking exercise on differences between pay at Severfield plants throughout the UK. Threatened strike action by Unite members at Severfield helped secure the deal.2 In the Community & Not-for-profit sector, strike action by more than 60 workers at Hull and East Riding Citizens Advice, which began in July, has ended in an improved pay offer from the employer. The deal includes a £1,500 consolidated payment across all grades for 2022/23, and a £1,000 consolidated payment across all grades for 2023/24, as well as a £425 non-consolidated payment for this year.3

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Threatened industrial action by over 100 Unite members at the Lincoln kitchen appliance manufacturer Lincat has secured an 8% increase backdated from January for the majority of workers.

Workers will also receive a further 5% pay increase from January 2024. The threat of industrial action has also forced management to concede an increased pay offer at Vanderlande Ltd, the company that maintains baggage carousels at Heathrow airport.4 In the oil and gas sector, 85 offshore workers employed by Petrofac Facilities Management Limited have secured improvements in their working arrangements, after taking fourteen days of industrial action.5 The dispute originally centred on Ithaca Energy’s 14 days ‘clawback’ policy. Clawback days refers to a situation where offshore workers can be asked to work at any time for no additional payment. The policy, of 14 days, double the industry norm of 7 days, has now been reduced to 10 days. Petrofac originally offered to reduce this policy to 12 days. The company made a last minute offer to reduce this to 10 days on the eve of further scheduled strike action.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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Unite members have also been winning recognition in their workplaces. Unite negotiated a major recognition agreement with Mears, covering thousands of workers at the housing and social care provider. This came on the back of Unite members at the company recently securing five days holiday, enhanced sick pay and enhanced family friendly policies, as well as an average 14% pay rise on top of a national pay award of £2,000 last year. The recognition agreement gives Unite access to Mears contracts so workers can organise at the local level, as well as the national level.6 Unite have also secured a major victory on the Murphy Four campaign, using Unite Leverage. Following the dismissal of four Unite members by MIL, an Irish subsidiary of the Murphy Group, from the Aughinish Alumunia site in August/September 2022, Unite entered into a long-running campaign for their reinstatement. The campaign ended in vindication for the Murphy Four, with the company offering reinstatement and compensation to the dismissed workers. There will be more detail on this in next month's edition of Facts and Figures.

1.2

Winning in the Workplace: First Bus engineers dispute resolved after pay deal In November, around 150 engineers who maintain and repair First Glasgow's bus operations secured a major pay

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

deal which will see the hourly wage increase by a minimum of 17.6% by April 2024.

The pay deal will initially increase wages from £15.31 to £17.50, and thereafter to a minimum of £18 per hour in April 2024. This equates to a minimum income rise of over £5,000.

The engineers are employed by First Glasgow (No1) and First Glasgow (No2), which are part of First Group plc’s bus operations in Scotland. The workers are based in various bus depots across Greater Glasgow. In the most recent financial year, First Glasgow (No1) reported profits after tax year of £3.96 million, whereas First Glasgow (No 2) reported a profit of £362,000.

Around 1,200 Unite bus drivers are also involved in a similar pay dispute with First Bus. The drivers voted by 99% in support of strike action on a high turnout of 77%, and strike action is scheduled to take place between 24th November and 1st December.

"Unite’s engineers at First Bus across Greater Glasgow have secured an excellent new pay deal. We said all along that this is a company which can well afford to make a fair pay offer and this proved to be the case. We now urge First Bus management to urgently revisit their pay offer to our 1,200 drivers and settle that dispute through negotiations. If they do not, then Unite will support our

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures

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What have we delivered through collective bargaining?

Facts and Figures members all the way in their fight for better jobs, pay and conditions.” - Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION TWO

OTHER SETTLEMENTS 2.

What other settlements have been reached?

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2.1

Unite members have secured a massive £420 million through industrial action since August 2021

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Bus workers have been involved in 171 disputes since August 2021, securing a £3,170 average pay increase

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2.1.1 2.2

We cannot afford to erode public sector pay and conditions further with vacancies bringing services to their knees 27

2.2.1

The Government needs to make different choices to reverse the 19% pay cut workers in the public sector have endured since 2010

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2.2.2

Unite is campaigning for all NHS workers to receive the COVID-19 payment they are due 29

2.3

The minimum and living wages are far too low, but it is up to organised workers to set the bar 30

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures

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What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures

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Pay deals won by our members are higher than the average. This is the Unite Premium. Unite’s unrelenting focus on Jobs, Pay and Conditions is directly resulting in significant pay increases for our members and putting money in their pockets.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

2.

2.1

What other settlements have been reached?

Unite members have secured a massive £420 million through industrial action since August 2021 Since Sharon Graham was elected General Secretary in August 2021, more than 180,000 Unite members have been involved in over 1,000 disputes. Unite's current win rate in these disputes is 81%, and has remained consistently close to this figure for the last two years.

The confidence and leadership of members, Reps and Officers, backed by the resources of the Union, has secured £420 million for the workers involved. This represents a huge transfer of cash from the bank accounts of employers directly to the pockets of the workers who generate this value.

The biggest pay increase was in July 2022, when workers at Lerwick Port Authority (in Shetland) secured a 38% pay increase. Wins like this have shown that the employers' offensive against workers pay and conditions can be resisted.

What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures

Figure 5 Top 10 Unite wins since August 2021

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures By fighting back against employer greed in the face of the cost of living crisis, these reps and members have ensured workers at their companies are getting a fair deal. And they are showing that building and exercising workplace power, through collective bargaining and industrial action, is the only way of ensuring that workers get the pay rises they deserve.

2.1.1

Bus workers have been involved in 171 disputes since August 2021, securing a £3,170 average pay increase A total of 48,975 members in the bus sector have been involved in 171 disputes since August 2021. These wins have delivered an average pay increase of £3,170 for each bus driver involved, showing how industrial action can secure substantial gains for our members.

Not only has such action delivered big gains for the workers involved, but the rising tide of industrial action has lifted all boats across the sector: raising the 'rate for the job' by £2,000 since the pandemic.

Figure 6 Abellio bus drivers on their picket line

Major gains this year include an 18% pay increase for 1,800 Abellio bus drivers in London, following over 20 days of industrial action,

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Facts and Figures

2.2

We cannot afford to erode public sector pay and conditions further with vacancies bringing services to their knees According to ONS data, compared with the five years preCovid, vacancies have increased in Public Admin and Defence by over 100%, Health by nearly half and Education vacancies by a third.Poor pay, coupled with eroding terms and conditions, has led to record levels of public sector vacancies. This situation is not only bad for the workers but also for just about the entire country who rely on quality public services.

Despite falling in recent quarters, total vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels. All evidence suggests that poor pay and conditions are key reasons why workers are leaving the public sector in droves. Unite will continue to campaign for a fully funded public sector and support our members taking action as they fight for jobs, pay and conditions that reflect the true social value of their work.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What other settlements have been reached?

and a 20% pay uplift for over 230 bus drivers employed by Lothian Country and East Coast Buses.7

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Facts and Figures Figure 7 Vacancies have massively increased in recent years. Vacancy numbers for selected industries with large public sector coverage, aver-

What other settlements have been reached?

age of five years to Oct-Dec 2019 compared with Aug-Oct 2023. Source ONS8

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The latest data for NHS England vacancies shows that 125,600 positions are vacant. Since March 2021 (the most recent low point for NHS England vacancies), vacancies have increased by 49,500 (65%).9 There is an urgent need for public sector workers to stand up and take action to improve their pay. Public sector pay has been decimated in the last decade: it was 19% lower in 2022 than in 2009 after accounting for inflation.10 In the last decade, with the exception of a few months during the Covid pandemic, private sector pay growth has been diverging from public sector pay.

Figure 8 Figure 9 below shows the change in pay for private and public sectors over the past ten years: with brief exceptions when much of the private sector was furloughed, and when one-off bonuses were paid in summer 2023, the picture is clear of public sector workers falling behind. The spike in summer 2023 also highlights the fact that one-off payments leave workers at a lower starting point for future pay negotiations.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Figure 9 Public sector earnings have been growing more slowly than in Britain Source: ONS

2.2.1

The Government needs to make different choices to reverse the 19% pay cut workers in the public sector have endured since 2010 Since 2009/10, average weekly earnings in the public sector have fallen by £152 (19%) in real terms.11 This is a choice that our political class has made. But it doesn't have to be that way.

It would cost £61.4 billion to restore public sector pay to 2009/10 levels by 2027/28.1213 While this sounds like a large figure, it is perfectly achievable if central government were to take real action.

The Government has a number of levers it could pull if it wants to raise revenue: n Raising tax levels so they are in line with the rest of the G7 could raise £139 billion. Straight away, that could bring in more than double what we would need to restore public sector pay.14 n We could tax the rich in a variety of ways, from abolishing private school tax breaks to introducing a wealth tax on millionaires. A wealth tax alone could raise up to £390 billion a year.15 n We could tax corporations properly. Between 2010 and 2017, corporation tax was cut from 28% to 19%. While it has since increased, we are still well below the 2010 rate.16 Unite will campaign over the next year for fairer choices to be made by whatever the Government of the day is, so that public sector workers get a fair rate of pay.

2.2.2

What other settlements have been reached?

the private sector over the last decade. Average Weekly Earnings, Great

Unite is campaigning for all NHS workers to receive the COVID-19 payment they are due Unite is continuing to fight to make sure everyone who works in the NHS receives the Government's promised lump sum payment. The payment is already barely a sticking plaster over an NHS which has been cut to the bone by successive

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures

What other settlements have been reached?

governments - but the fact it is only being offered to certain workers adds insult to injury.

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The Government has created a multi-tier workforce by deliberately excluding those who don’t have Agenda for Change contracts at private sector organisations, as well NHS bank staff - even though they are working alongside NHS colleagues in the same hospitals.

We've already won this fight for some NHS workers, but will keep going until everyone who helped the NHS through COVID-19 is treated fairly.

Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham said: “We need real investment in our NHS and for its staff, whoever employs them. And we need a change in government to one that truly values our health service workers. Unite will continue to support some of the lowest paid workers in the health sector in their campaign for better pay and safe staffing conditions.”

2.3

The minimum and living wages are far too low, but it is up to organised workers to set the bar In the UK, wages are protected by two statutory minimums: the National Minimum Wage (NMW) for those of at least school leaving age; or the National Living Wage (NLW) for those aged 23 and over.17 The rates change on 1 April every year.

Even when the so-called 'major increase' in the NLW to at least £11 per hour is introduced in April 2024, these rates of pay are woefully inadequate for any worker, regardless of age or any other metric.18 The idea that this is a 'living wage' is nothing more than a cynical branding exercise.

'Minimum' and 'living' wages that are given, either by governments or voluntarily by employers, can in reality be removed with the stroke of a pen. We cannot rely on government or independent estimates to establish minimum wages and standards. Wages won and enforced through collective bargaining and union organising are the most effective way to eradicate poverty pay.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 10 Statutory minimum wage rates by age for 2023. Source .Gov.UK

In addition to being too low, neither the NLW nor the NMW take account of the higher cost of living in London.19 2022 data estimated that over half a million jobs were still not paying even this low level of remuneration. Younger workers and part-time workers were most likely to be affected.20 Self-employed people are not entitled to the NMW or NLW, and in 2019 the TUC found that more than half were earning less than the minimum wage. Many workers are wrongly classed as self-employed so that their de facto employer can avoid legal minimums.21 52% of platform workers in food delivery, private hire and data entry have reported earning less than the minimum wage.22

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures

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What other settlements have been reached?

Facts and Figures

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Figure 11 Deliveroo couriers campaigning for a living wage

It is clear that the legal minimums are too low and that enforcement is inadequate. However, alternative 'real living wage' estimates lack both the ambition and strategy we need to win pay rises. The Living Wage Foundation has set its 'Real Living Wage' for 2023/24 at £10.90 per hour, just 48p more than the current NLW. Their rate for London is £11.95, which has been endorsed by the Mayor of London as a reflection of the costs of living in the capital.23 One this is clear: setting minimum pay rates is no replacement for collective bargaining and workers winning wage rises for themselves.

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION THREE

COST OF LIVING 3.

What's the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

3.1

Inflation remains high at 6.1% and an extended period of high rising prices has had a massive impact on real wages 37

3.2

Focusing on the annual percentage change in inflation is now masking price increases that are now baked in 38

3.3

Prices of vital categories such as clothing and food are rising faster than the overall inflation rate, at 13% and 10% respectively 39

3.4

oReporting the inflation rate using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – rather than the more accurate Retail Price Index (RPI) – disguises the extent of the cost-of-living crisis 41

3.5

Interest rate hikes are piling misery on millions who have relied on cheap finance to partially fill the gap of real terms wage cuts 43

3.6

Prices for new rentals are up over 12% in London and 10% in the rest of the country, making rents even more unaffordable 44

3.6.1

An average rental home costs a quarter of household income in England, Northern Ireland and Wales

3.7

37

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

46

Childcare costs in the UK are the most expensive in the developed world 47 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

35

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

36

With winter coming, millions of people face the prospect - yet again of choosing between heating and eating. The double whammy of high inflation and falling wages is creating an historic cost of living crisis for workers.

The only way workers can fight for ‘a better share of the pie’ is by building union strength and the power of collective bargaining.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

3.

3.1

What's the cost of living?

How fast is it rising?

Inflation remains high at 6.1% and an extended period of high rising prices has had a massive impact on real wages The Retail Price Index (RPI) measure of inflation currently stands at 6.1%, down from 8.9% the previous month. This annual figure is now being portrayed as a "good news" story by politicians. But falling inflation does not mean falling prices: the reality is prices are still continuing to rise faster and at a more sustained rate than we have seen in the last 30 years.

Figure 12 RPI continues to be at some of the highest rates in the last 30 years. Retail Price Index, All Items: Percentage change over 12 months

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

1993 to present. Source ONS

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

37

Facts and Figures

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

3.2

Focusing on the annual percentage change in inflation is now masking price increases that are now baked in It has been over two and half years since inflation rose above the Government's target of 2% and this is having a massive impact on real wages. It is more urgent than ever that Unite members fight for RPI+ pay rises and resist the bosses' attempt to make workers pay the price for the profit-driven cost of living crisis.

This month you may have seen headlines about an actual drop in the price of fuel and light, but if we extend the period covered back to March 2021 we see that fuel and light leads a whole host of categories that have seen incredibly large increases.

Figure 13 We have seen huge price increases across all key categories.

RPI percentage change March 2021 to Oct 2023. Source ONS

As our latest Unite Investigates report shows, if energy had been in public hands, inflation would have been cut by almost a third and every household in Britain would be £1,800 per year better off.24 The ability of these few firms to benefit from the situation in Ukraine is a disgrace. Unite are continuing to shine a light on profiteering and through upcoming work such as the Workers'

38

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

If inflation had kept to the Government’s target, prices would now be about 5% higher than in March 2021, instead of over 27% higher.

3.3

Prices of vital categories such as clothing and food are rising faster than the overall inflation rate, at 13% and 10% respectively Overall inflation is just over 6%, but the vital categories of Clothing & footwear (over 13%) and Food (nearly 10%) are even higher than that. The cost of these items has a huge impact on workers' standard of living.

Unite Investigates has shown that these increases are driven by profiteering in these sectors.25 Workers should not have to pay for the bosses' cost of greed crisis. By building power in the workplace and exposing employers' ability to pay, Unite members can continue to win at the bargaining table and mitigate the impact of high inflation.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Manifesto will outline and campaign for fundamental changes to our broken economic system.

39

Facts and Figures Figure 14 Some categories are substantially higher than overall inflation. Retail Price Index, Selected detailed changes: Percentage change

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

over 12 months, October 2023. Source: ONS

40

As we head towards autumn and winter the cost of new clothes continues to rise at very high levels. Women's and children's outerwear are 18% and 16% more expensive than a year ago.

Figure 15 Children's and women's clothing is nearly a sixth more expensive than last year. Retail Price Index, Clothing and footwear categories: Percentage change over 12 months, October 2023. Source ONS

The price of food overall is rising by nearly 10% but some food products are rising by well over that. Oil and fats are nearly 19% more expensive than last year, sugar and preserves have risen by nearly 17%, and eggs are over 16% more expensive.

At the same time, supermarket profits have been rising. Unite General Secretary, Sharon Graham, commenting on Unite research, said that “Despite the rise in wholesale prices, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda still managed to increase their profits by an astonishing 97% in 2021. At the same time the 8 top UK food manufacturers made profits of £22.9 billion. Profiteering is happening right along the food supply chain and workers are paying the price."26

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 16 Many staple products are rising faster than the overall food category. Retail Price Index, Selected food detailed changes: Percentage change over 12 months, October 2023. Source ONS

3.4

oReporting the inflation rate using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – rather than the more accurate Retail Price Index (RPI) – disguises the extent of the cost-of-living crisis You may have seen news articles that use CPI, rather than RPI, to report increases in the cost of living. Or, you may have had employers at the bargaining table use CPI when negotiating over wage increases during a pay round.

That's not an accident. RPI more closely reflects the actual price rises experienced by Unite members, and is therefore a better standard to use for bargaining than the lower CPI figure. As such, Work Voice Pay's suite of bargaining tools are all linked to the current rate of RPI inflation.

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

The RPI has been going since 1947 and is still used to decide prices such as mobile phone bills, rail fares, student loans and ‘sin’ taxes e.g. alcohol.2728 Businesses such as Virgin Media, O2, Train Operating Companies, and others use RPI to set price increases.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

41

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

But with the availability of different measures some employers go 'inflation measure shopping' and choose to use different measures (such as CPI or CPIH) which tend to produce a lower figure than RPI.29. CPI was introduced by the Government in 2004 at the behest of the European Union to allow it to compare macro-economic inflation across the continent. It was not designed to help understand changes in the cost of living.

RPI includes some price rises that our members experience, but which aren’t covered by CPI such as30: n paying for mortgages n foreign holidays CPI includes the spending of groups not usually relevant to our negotiations, such as: n the top 4% of households by income n Pensioner-only households n Stockbrokers fees n Spending by foreign tourists

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

So, if your boss tries to tie your pay negotiations to CPI, do not hesitate to remind them that only RPI+ makes our members' pay stand up!

3.5

Interest rate hikes are piling misery on millions who have relied on cheap finance to partially fill the gap of real terms wage cuts At 5.25%, official interest rates are at their highest level in the last 15 years.31 Many forecasters, such as JP Morgan, HSBC and the British Chambers of Commerce, expect them to be at least as high into 2024.32 Consecutive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England have caused the number of residential mortgages in the UK to jump to a 7-year high in the three months to June to £16.9 billion. This is likely to get worse as 1.6 million mortgage holders in the UK are due to renew over the next 12 months at significantly higher rates.

Work by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has found that 2.3 million low-income families have taken out loans using credit to pay for everyday essentials during the cost-ofliving crisis.33 Even though the headline inflation rate is falling, there is the real risk of further suffering as millions of workers struggle to repay what they owe. As of August 2023, UK credit card debt is at £67.2 billion - a year on year percentage increase of 8%.34 While banks profit from interest rate hikes, workers feel the pinch as winter draws in. Politicians need to wake up. It’s only by taking on runaway profiteering that we can end the cost of living crisis.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

43

Facts and Figures

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

And it is not just credit card and mortgage rate increases that are causing workers financial stress. For example, although the number of new and used cars fell from 2021 to 2022, the amount borrowed to pay for those cars increased by 9% to £40.7 billion.

44

With interest in the UK at the highest rate since 2008 and not expected to come down till 2024, this is going to continue to be a strain on workers' incomes. The money locked up in car finances would go a long way to help workers pay their rising rent and food costs. Even Conservative MPs acknowledge that defaults could soar if the debt bubble bursts .

3.6

Prices for new rentals are up over 12% in London and 10% in the rest of the country, making rents even more unaffordable Drastic increases in rental prices have left those who don't own a property struggling to make ends meet, especially in London where rental prices are highest. With rental costs taking up around 25% of workers' income on average, it is vital that current and predicted future housing costs are factored into pay claims to match the economic reality of our members.

Prices for new rentals have been rising since the end of 2019 and are now up 12.1% year-on-year in Greater London and 10.0% in the rest of the country. The average price of a new rental in London has now surpassed £2,630 per month for the first time; outside the capital prices have also hit a record level of £1,280 per month.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 17 Rents reach record new asking prices across the country. Average asking rent for all property types, Greater London and Rest of the country, with annual percentage change. Source Rightmove35

The latest Rightmove rental tracker36 states that: "The number of enquiries each property is receiving from would-be tenants has more than tripled to 25 from eight at this time in 2019" and "The increase in enquiries is driven by the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, with 41% more tenants looking to move than in 2019 and available supply down by 35%".

Tenants are having to jump through more hoops than ever, just to secure a roof over their heads, with some landlords taking the opportunity to cash in on this situation by not renewing contracts and going back to the broken market.

Overall prices (including both new rentals and price rises for existing rentals) in the private rental sector are rising at a rate of 5.7% in the year to September: the highest level since the ONS started measuring this in 2016.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

45

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

Figure 18 Overall rental prices are rising at an average rate of 5.7% per year, the highest level since ONS started measuring this data in 2016.

Source: ONS

There is also some geographic variation in the increases: new prices rose fastest in Scotland up 14.5% and slowest in Wales, although still at nearly 6% a year.

Figure 19 Rents reach record new asking prices across the country.

Annual percentage change for all property types, English regions, Scotland, Wales. Source Rightmove37

Rising interest rates are helping to fuel rent increases as landlords pass on higher mortgage costs. In a recent survey, nine in ten landlords said they planned to increase rents due to rising interest rates or had already done so.38

3.6.1

An average rental home costs a quarter of household income in England, Northern Ireland and Wales A growing proportion of renters are struggling to meet the cost of renting. Around 1 in 3 adults are finding it difficult to afford rent or mortgage payments39, while around 1 in 20 tenants are missing rent payments.40 In the year to March 2021 (the latest available data from the ONS), a median-priced rental home in England cost the equivalent of 26% of median household gross income. The figure was

46

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

slightly lower at 23% in both Wales and Northern Ireland, while London was the least affordable region with rent taking 40% of income.41 Even in the social rental sector prices are rising, with social housing rents set to rise by 7%. Social rents are regulated and usually rise by CPI plus 1%, which would have meant an even bigger increase, but increases this year were capped at 7% in the Autumn Statement. 42 According to a survey, most social landlords intend to raise rents as much as is permitted by the cap.43 Whilst social housing offers lower rents than the private rental sector, there is a massive deficit of homes available. There are currently 1.4 million fewer households in social housing in England than there were in 1980.44

3.7

Childcare costs in the UK are the most expensive in the developed world In 2022 the UK became the most expensive country for childcare in the developed world.45 The cost of living crisis is being exacerbated by unsustainable childcare costs. Part-time nursery places in Britain cost around 6% more than a year ago.46 A survey by women's rights charity Pregnant Then Screwed found some truly shocking results where over one in six parents have left their jobs due to the financial burden of childcare costs and a huge majority say the costs are creating financial anxiety in the home.47 Women bear the brunt of this burden, so soaring childcare costs are also putting further pressure on gender inequality.

A good childcare package is a vital part of any working parent’s life and employers have a duty to support working parents in achieving a good work-life balance. Childcare is therefore a collective bargaining issue. Unite negotiators can use the Pay Claim Generator to include model language on childcare rights in pay negotiations.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

47

What is the cost of living? How fast is it rising?

Facts and Figures

48

Figure 20 Over one in six parents have left their jobs due to the financial burden of childcare costs Source: Pregnant then Screwed48

Local authorities highlight various pressures which are leading to price increases among childcare providers, including the cost of energy and the cost of food.49 Nearly 1 in 5 local authorities say childcare providers are in severe financial risk.50 The lack of support from the government in early years education is a choice which is leading providers to increase prices charged to parents, reduce numbers of staff, and reduce numbers of free places.51

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION FOUR

WHAT IS DRIVING INFLATION? 4.

What is driving inflation?

53

4.1

Corporate profiteering is driving inflation, not wages

53

4.1.1

The five main channels of profiteering

54

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is driving inflation?

Facts and Figures

51

What is driving inflation?

Facts and Figures

52

The weight of evidence shows that the UK is in the grip of a profiteering crisis.

Workers’ wages and what they can buy are being squeezed by corporate wreckers pursuing runaway profits, quite literally at our expense.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

4.1

What is driving inflation?

Corporate profiteering is driving inflation, not wages There is little evidence for a wage-price spiral exacerbating inflation in the UK. Inflation has risen almost twice as fast as wages over the last 2 years. By contrast, profits and dividends have gone through the roof. Economists at the Bank of England even said in September that companies plan to grow their margins next year.52 And for all the false narratives about wages driving inflation, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research recently forecast that wages would increase at a rate of over 7%, but they "do not expect this to feed into higher price inflation as firms have space to absorb these increases by lowering margins".53 Unite's new Financial Insider tool shows the true financial state of companies and their ability to pay. This is just one weapon reps and stewards can use to win in the workplace and get our members a fair piece of the pie.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is driving inflation?

4.

53

Facts and Figures Figure 21 Inflation has risen almost twice as fast as wages over the last two years. Monthly average weekly wage versus monthly RPI, indexed to April 2021: Source ONS

What is driving inflation?

Even as inflation comes down, it would not be a surprise if companies attempted to low-ball workers by making the tired and inaccurate wage-price sprial argument at the next pay round. But it can be easily dismissed.

A so-called wage-price spiral occurs when a shock which raises prices leads workers to demand higher wages. This then raises wage costs and prices, leading workers to demand higher wages again, and the process repeats. 54 But in reality British workers have experienced the opposite: wages have been trailing inflation for over a decade. In fact, real wages are lower now than they were in 1997. And, as the NIESR report above makes clear, there is plenty of room in firms' profits for them to raise wages without raising prices.

4.1.1

The five main channels of profiteering Many companies have taken full advantage of the high-inflation environment created in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, using it as an opportunity for price gouging and corporate profiteering.55 Unite will continue to expose profiteering in all its forms to reveal the worst elements of our broken economy, highlight employers' ability to pay, and arm our negotiators with all the facts, figures and arguments needed to beat the bosses' narratives.

Exhibit number one: the profits of the 350 largest listed companies (the FTSE 350) were 89% higher in the first half of 2022 than they were in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic took hold.56 Price rises in three sectors – domestic energy, food, and motoring costs – are responsible for 57% of inflation – and profiteering in these sectors has been particularly rampant57 n The world’s 10 largest oil companies made combined profits of £174.5 billion in 2021, while Britain’s petrol refineries saw their profit per barrel rise 366% in 202258 n The top three supermarkets doubled their profits in 2021 compared to 2019, while the world’s four largest agribusinesses saw profits jump 255% over the same period59

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

In other sectors profits rose rapidly too: the world’s top 10 semiconductor manufacturers’ profits jumped 96%, while the eight largest shipping companies saw their profits rise 20,650% (i.e. 200 times) in 2021 compared to 201961Such exorbitant profits are made possible by a rigged economy that sees wealth flow into the hands of bosses and investors at the expense of workers and consumers62 Companies profiteer through five main channels. n Reduced supply: Demand chases reduced supply, allowing companies to jack up prices and profits. n Higher demand: Increased demand while supply remains stable or falls gives companies the opportunity to lift prices. n Market windfall: Centralised market pricing structures help companies score “windfall” profits – where a market-wide price jumps due to factors unrelated to many companies’ costs. n Market concentration: A few large companies dominate an industry, giving them power to increase mark-ups.63 n State-licensed monopolies: In some key industries like energy and water, companies are granted government concessions which give them enormous power to set prices.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is driving inflation?

n The Big 4 energy providers (Centrica, E.ON, EDF and Scottish Power) made combined profits of £9.5 billion in 2021, up 84% on 201960

55

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION FIVE

REAL TERMS PAY 5.

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

59

5.1

Workers have suffered a generation of pay decline and get nearly 11% less today than in 1997 59

5.1.1

With government data falling into decline, Unite is taking the lead on sourcing data to benchmark our members’ pay and conditions 62

5.2

For over a century real wage increases were the norm

5.3

Prices have been rising faster than wages for over a decade, leaving the average worker over £700 a month worse off in real terms compared to 2010 65

5.4

Household incomes are nearly £18,000 a year worse off 67

5.4.1

Savings are down, while household debt is up to an average of £71,000 per household 68

5.5

The wealthiest 10% of individuals hold almost half of the UK's total wealth

64

68

5.6

The lowest 10% of earners are making £8,700 a year or less, with a record number employed in low-paid jobs 70

5.7

Profits have grown twice as fast as wages and salaries in the last year 70

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

57

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

58

The drop in the value of wages shows just how important it is for unions like Unite to defend workers’ pay. We will continue to do whatever it takes to defend our members’ Jobs, Pay and Conditions.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

5.1

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Workers have suffered a generation of pay decline and get nearly 11% less today than in 1997 In real terms, workers are paid less now than they were in 1997. The median weekly wage in 2023 was just £682, nearly 11% below where its real equivalent stood in 1997.64 The term 'real wages' refers to wages that have been adjusted for inflation. It allows us to accurately compare pay over many years.

Compared to their peak in 2009, real wages have fallen nearly 21%, from £861 in 2009. This means workers are nearly £180 per week worse off.65 This will be the second year in a row where real wages have fallen by around 5%. These falls are due to wages failing to keep up with rising prices, driven most recently by a rise in corporate profiteering.66 The fact that millions of workers are now substantially worse off shows why it is vital to win RPI+ pay rises to gradually claw back our previous living standards. Unite is working across sectors, via industrial combines, to bring workers together and use their collective power to drive up pay and conditions.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

5.

59

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

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Figure 22 The average weekly real wage is lower than in 1997. Median weekly wage, full-time employees, 1997 to 2023, Source: ASHE and RPI, ONS

Just looking at the last decade, well after the shock of the global financial crisis, real terms pay for full-time workers has declined across every region and nation in the UK. The national average, from 2014 to 2023, has seen a fall of nearly 10%. The largest declines were in the North-East of England and London (down nearly 13%). The smallest decline was in Northern Ireland, but this was still over 4%.67

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

Figure 23 Pay has declined across every region and country of the UK in the last decade. Change in real median weekly pay, 2014 versus 2023, Source: ASHE and RPI, ONS

According to analysis by the Resolution Foundation, “This will be the worst Parliament on record (1966 onwards) for income growth across most of the income distribution.”68

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

5.1.1

With government data falling into decline, Unite is taking the lead on sourcing data to benchmark our members’ pay and conditions Collecting quality data is not an easy task, but it is also not an impossible one. With the correct resources and application it should be possible to collect data that helps us to understand and, more importantly, change the world around us.

Over the last couple of month’s it has been revealed that the government has been failing in its attempts to collect the data necessary to fully understand the economy.

In October the Office for National Statistics was forced to delay the release of its monthly Labour Force Statistics overview. Later in the month the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings was not released in the detail that we have seen in previous years.

Experienced practitioners have aired their concerns and fears: “What this means is that we can’t really trust either of the main sources of labour market stats - ASHE on earnings, or LFS on employment”. Xiaowei Xu, Senior economist, Institute for Fiscal Studies

"Given that this data is central to the Bank’s decisions on interest rates, this uncertainty is a serious problem”. Nye Cominetti, Principal Economist, the Resolution Foundation Whilst the headline figures put out by government sources are likely to be approximately correct, the problems really begin when we dig into the detail. Disparities in specific groups, whether that be gender and race or regions and occupations, are going to have to come with some big health warnings.

As we well know, in the Trade Union movement we cannot rely on the government to do what is necessary for workers.

Over the last few months our Bargaining and Disputes team were asked by the General Secretary to work with Unite Regional Secretary for Ireland Susan Fitzgerald, and colleagues, to pilot a new project where we will centrally collect the pay data and other

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Figure 24 An example of the type of data visualisation we can do once we have collected quality data

The purpose of this is to collect consistent information and allow us to develop a central repository of pay data of our members. This will help us benchmark pay and conditions and allow us to support advanced pay claims for those workplaces that want to pursue them.

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

relevant bargaining information of our members. This pilot builds on earlier work undertaken in Finance, Buses, Energy.

After reviewing the pilot, we will look to roll out a similar collection across the Union in 2024.

With the right data we will be able to tackle inequality and injustice wherever we find it. The engagement of Unite negotiators in this task is vital if our Union is to keep winning for its members.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures 5.2

For over a century real wage increases were the norm

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Back in August colleagues at the TUC responded to a Twitter question.

And they were right. For over a century, in fact pretty much back to the industrial revolution, real pay went up nearly every year.

Figure 25 Real Average Weekly Wages saw incredible growth for over a century Source: Bank of England (2017)

Some people got filthy rich over this period, but at least the rest of us saw real improvements in our pay. So how has it become the bosses' starting position that a real terms (RPI+) pay increase is

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

5.3

Prices have been rising faster than wages for over a decade, leaving the average worker over £700 a month worse off in real terms compared to 2010 As shown in section 5.1, prices have been rising faster than wages.

To show the impact this has on our members' pockets, let's use the example of 'Sam', a full-time worker who earns the national average wage: n In 2010, Sam made approximately the average monthly wage of £2,000 and had monthly expenses of £2,000. They were basically breaking even. n In 2014, they were still making the average monthly wage, but this had seen little growth (less £100 per month), and their expenses had increased to nearly £2,400 - leaving them with a hole of £300 per month. n The mid-2010s was a period of very low inflation, but pay rises were similarly low. This meant that whilst the gap was broadly static, the standard of living in 2017 had become over £300 per month worse than 2010. n After a decade of average annual wage increases only once getting over 3%, 2021 (over 4%), 2022, (over 5%) and 2023 (over 6%) saw increasing values. But these were dwarfed by the inflation rates of 2022 and 2023. This has left Sam needing over £700 a month extra to equal their living standards of 2010.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

unaffordable - while at the same time profits are high and some people are still getting filthy rich?

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Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

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Figure 26 The average wage has not been increasing in line with RPI. Median monthly wage (in blue) versus monthly costs of £2000 being increased in line with RPI (in red), January 2010 to September 2023.

Source: ASHE and RPI, ONS

Some people may be able to use savings to subsidise their living standards, but many of our members do not have significant reserves. They may be forced to choose to give up certain discretionary spending, like trips away or visits to local restaurants.

But the example above uses the average wage. Those further down the wage ladder would have had fewer opportunities to make changes.

When wages lag behind price rises, people will, and in some cases already do, decide between heating and food. They certainly won’t have the funds to account for a broken boiler or car MOT. Each time a pay rise does not match increases in the cost of living, a worker’s options are reduced and eventually there is nothing left to cut. But the onus should not be on individuals to 'cut their cloth' when prices rise. The only way workers can truly address increases in the cost of living is by bargaining collectively to make sure pay and conditions match reality.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Household incomes are nearly £18,000 a year worse off Pitiful growth in earnings and welfare cuts have eroded rises in living standards in the UK since the financial crisis. Annual disposable household incomes (which takes into account taxes and benefits) rose from around £15,000 in 1977 to over £38,600 in 2007/08 in real terms.69 But, since the financial crisis, growth in real household incomes has stagnated and households are nearly £18,000 worse-off per year than if the pre-crisis trend had continued.

This deterioration in living standards has taken place whilst companies increase their profits and dividend pay-outs to shareholders. But Unite members have shown it is possible to fight back and reverse these recent trends of household income stagnation by winning over £420 million over the last 2 years through industrial disputes alone.

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

5.4

Figure 27 Household income rose consistently for thirty years, but the upward trend never recovered post the financial crash. Mean average household income 1977 - 2022, plus trendline based on 1977-2007.

Source ONS70

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

5.4.1

Savings are down, while household debt is up to an average of £71,000 per household The most obvious way in which households can accumulate wealth is by saving part of their income. When real wages decline and real household income stagnates, there is less money to put into savings.

The Office of Budget Responsibility predicts that the household savings rate - the percentage of disposable income that is saved - will "drop to around zero in 2023 and 2024" as consumers spend down their savings to keep up with rising prices. The OBR predicts that the savings rate may rise to about 1% "as cost-of-living pressures ease", but even that increase would be half the average rate in the period following the financial crisis71.

While household income has flatlined, household debt has been growing rapidly since the pandemic. At the start of the year the total stock of consumer debt, including mortgage debt, exceeded more than £2 trillion for the first time. This is the equivalent of £71,000 per household, and close to the size of the entire UK economy.72 Within this, credit card borrowing is growing at some of the fastest rates since the Financial Crisis.73 High levels of household debt can create "negative wealth" for some when the amount they owe surpasses the amount they have in savings and other assets.

5.5

The wealthiest 10% of individuals hold almost half of the UK's total wealth The top 10% of individuals control nearly half of all the UK's wealth. Including the next ten percent shows that the top 20% hold over two-thirds of the UK's wealth. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of individuals hold just 6% of the wealth.74 Workers cannot wait for a benevolent government to address this obscene wealth disparity. The most effective way of levelling the playing field is through collective bargaining, building workers' power and winning in the workplace.

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Figure 28 Wealth in the UK is vastly unequal, with the top 20% of the population controlling 68% of all wealth. Meanwhile, the bottom half holds just 6% of the wealth. Source: ONS

"Wealth" is not just the ability to buy fancy things. It is the security of knowing that your household has the resources to deal with the unexpected, to save for the future, and to invest in the things you need. The two most important drivers of household wealth – home ownership and private pensions – have been in decline in recent years, further widening the wealth gap: n Property wealth is the largest component of household wealth in Britain, but home ownership rates have been in decline since 2003. That year, 71% of households were either owned outright or had a mortgage, but this had declined to 64% by 2021/22.75 Younger people have seen the steepest declines in home ownership, dropping from 59% in 2003 76 to 41% in 2021/22 77.

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Facts and Figures

n Private pensions are the second-largest source of wealth, but more than 20% of all workers, and a quarter of private sector workers, have no workplace pension of any kind.78A third of workers do not expect to have any retirement savings other than the state pension when they retire.79 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

69

Facts and Figures

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

Even when pension savings exist, only 7% of private sector workers have a defined benefit pension, which offers the most secure form of retirement income.80 Pension wealth is also yet another marker of huge inequality. As of 2020 (the latest available data) the richest 10% of the population held almost twice as much private pension wealth as the other 90% of the population combined.81

5.6

The lowest 10% of earners are making £8,700 a year or less, with a record number employed in low-paid jobs According to PAYE data from August 2023, 10% of payrolled employees earned equal to or less than £751 per month. This is the equivalent to just over £9,000 per year.82 The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) 2023 Low and High Pay bulletin83 found that 23.4% of workers are in low-paid jobs based on weekly earnings, the lowest on record. The fall is attributed to increases in the National Minimum Wage (NWM) and National Living Wage (NLM) But these statutory minimums still fall a long way short of a 'union wage' that is bargained and enforced collectively.

Meaningful gains and improvements to pay will be brought about at the negotiating table rather than relying on changes to the law.

Low pay employees, defined as those earning two-thirds of median earnings, tend to be part-time, younger, and more likely to work in industries such as hospitality: n 39% of hospitality workers are low paid n 11% of women are low paid compared to 7% of men

5.7

Profits have grown twice as fast as wages and salaries in the last year Most of the income generated in the economy flows to either workers, in the form of wages and non-wage compensation, or to bosses, in the form of profits: the so-called 'labour share' and 'profit share' of GDP. You wouldn't know from listening to politicians and the bosses that profits are growing far more quickly than wages. Workers' demands for decent pay are not behind the economic crisis and Unite will continue to back our reps and

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Facts and Figures

Figure 29 Profits have grown by twice the rate of wages and salaries.

Percentage growth of wages and salaries versus total profit, Past 12 months compared with previous 12 months. Source ONS (T7)

At the moment, the profit share is growing at the expense of workers. The most recent period we have data for (the third quarter of 2023) saw the labour share – wages, salaries and employers’ social contributions – below 49% of GDP (the lowest this decade), with the profit share higher than a year earlier at 22.5% (compared to 21.6%).84 Looking at the longer term, there was a shift from labour to capital during the 1980s-1990s and a smaller shift back in the late 1990s, meaning workers are still getting a smaller share of national income than they did before the Thatcher era, after antitrade union laws were introduced.85 Clearly there is plenty of scope in the coming pay round for undoing some of the shift of income away from workers ' pockets, including the work Unite does at the bargaining table, that has taken place in the last fifty years.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Is pay rising or falling in real terms?

members 100% in winning their fair share.

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SECTION SIX

TERMS AND CONDITIONS 6.

What about Terms and Conditions? Are they getting better?

75

6.1

Workers are seeing attacks on their pensions with a 63% reduction in the availability of decent schemes over the last decade 75

6.1.1

A single person would require a £645,000 pension pot to achieve a comfortable lifestyle in retirement

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

76

Are Terms and Conditions getting better?

Facts and Figures

73

Are Terms and Conditions getting better?

Facts and Figures

74

There was a time when we created DB schemes. And it was about social responsibility and employers understanding that this was deferred pay.

We must not allow profiteering employers or a negligent state to push our people into pension poverty.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

6.

6.1

What about Terms and Conditions? Are they getting better?

Workers are seeing attacks on their pensions with a 63% reduction in the availability of decent schemes over the last decade Bosses are failing to pay their fair share into our pension schemes and very few defined benefit schemes are open to new members.86Active private sector defined benefit (DB) and hybrid scheme memberships in the UK have fallen by nearly 63%, from 2.1 million to under 786,000.

Pensions are not a gift from bosses but are deferred wages that should allow workers to live a good life in retirement. Collectively bargaining for a good workplace pension is as important as a pay deal and under Sharon Graham's leadership, Unite will fight to reopen defined benefit schemes.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Are Terms and Conditions getting better?

Facts and Figures

75

Facts and Figures Figure 30 Private sector defined benefit and hybrid scheme membership pension numbers March 2012 versus March 2022. Source: The Actuary87

Are Terms and Conditions getting better?

With the UK state pension one of the lowest in the OECD, workers need their employers to pay into a good workplace pension scheme if they are not to be at risk of pensioner poverty.88

76

There is enough money in the economy for employers to be contributing their fair share to pensions. Workers create the wealth in society, and we need a much larger share of that wealth to live comfortably in our old age.

6.1.1

A single person would require a £645,000 pension pot to achieve a comfortable lifestyle in retirement There are a number of benchmarks that have been developed to address the question of meeting a decent standard of living for workers in their retirement. The most extensive existing benchmark is the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association’s (PLSA) Retirement Living Standards (RLS).8990 Since 2021, PLSA has produced Retirement Living Standards for three categories: Minimum, Moderate, and Comfortable. Based on these figures, a single person would require an income of £37,000 a year and a pension pot of £645,000 to achieve a comfortable lifestyle in retirement, .91 The 2022 report gave the following benchmark figures:92

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Figure 31 Overview of PLSA's 2022/23 Retirement Living Standards bench-

There is huge inequality in pension savings: analysis by Age UK found that almost a third of pre-state pension age households have savings of less than £5,000 and one tenth have savings of less than £250, or no savings at all.93 Meanwhile, BAEM pensioners are 24% worse off and women’s pensions are about half the size of men’s.94 The cost of living crisis has also pushed many to opt out of pension schemes to cover costs in the here and now.95 The median pension wealth for the 55-64 age group is £70,000, meaning they could only meet the PLSA's 2022/23 'comfortable' retirement standard for less than two years.96 Although the RLS seems to be the current industry standard on this issue, there are some major areas that could be improved using Unite’s own analysis. For example, social care and dependents costs are not included in the current RLS. This all points to the necessity of Unite collecting its own data on this vital issue if we are to fight for pensions that truly reflect our members' contribution to society.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Are Terms and Conditions getting better?

marks

77

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION SEVEN

EQUALITIES 7.

How are different demographic groups being impacted?81

7.1

On average, women are paid over 14% less than men

81

7.2

Government pay data is failing to address systemic biases against BAEM workers

85

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

79

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

80

I was elected in 2021 to do what it says on the trade union tin – to fight for Jobs, Pay and Conditions and to take equality into the heart of our members’ workplaces.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

7.

7.1

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

On average, women are paid over 14% less than men Though the gender pay gap has been declining slowly over time it was still 14.3% for all workers in 2023. Among full-time employees the gender pay gap in 2023 was 7.7% compared to 9.0% in 2019 before the pandemic.

Equalities issues are collective bargaining issues and go far beyond the matter of pay equality alone. Unite reps have a key role in ensuring that progress is made towards closing the gender pay gap by securing better parental leave, childcare options, flexible working, and part-time options.

Figure 32 The gender pay gap has been slowly falling but is still sub-

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

stantial. Gender pay gap for median gross hourly earnings (excluding

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

81

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures overtime), UK, April 1997 to 2023 Source: Office for National Statistics – Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

The gender pay gap is higher for all employees than it is for fulltime employees or part-time employees. This is because women fill more part-time jobs, which in comparison with full-time jobs have lower hourly median pay. Approximately 40% of women are in part-time roles, compared to 15% of men.

The gender pay gap is a measure of what women are paid relative to men. It is a measure across all jobs in the UK, not of the difference in pay between men and women for doing the same job.

So whilst the gender pay gap has been closing over the last twentyfive years, the pace is slow. If it continues at the same rate as we have seen for the past 25 years then we may see the end of a gap in the mid 21st century.

But women should not have to wait another few decades for equality! By putting equal pay at the centre of collective bargaining we can speed up this fight for justice.

Figure 33 At the current rate the gender pay gap will not disappear until 2051. Gender pay gap for full-time median gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime), UK, April 1997 to 2023, with trendline 1997-2051. Source: Office for National Statistics – Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

As mentioned in Section 5, there are some concerns over government data such as the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

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which is used to calculate the gender pay gap. At the moment no detailed data has been released, so the following analysis is still based on 2022 data.

There is a large difference in the gender pay gap between those over and below 40 years of age. For groups aged under 40, the gender pay gap for full-time employees is much lower, at 3.2% or below. However, for age groups aged 40 and older, the gender pay gap for full-time employees is much higher, at over 10.9%. The impact of age is likely to be tied to caring responsibilities.

Figure 34 There is a clear split between those over and under 40 years of age. Gender pay gap for full-time median gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime), by age-group, UK, April 1997 to 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics – Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

Men are paid more than women among full-time employees in each of the nine main occupation groups.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

83

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

84

Figure 35 The gender pay gap is highest in the administrative and secretarial occupational group. Gender pay gap by occupation groups, 2022.

Source: ONS.

The gender pay gap also varies substantially between regions and countries . Northern Ireland is the only place where women are currently paid more than men (4.6%). Some regions have seen substantial reductions in the last 25 years, including Wales, Scotland, and the North East, whereas London has seen a much smaller change.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 36 Regional changes over the last 25 years have been very different. Gender pay gap for median gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) for full-time employees, by work region, UK, April 1997 (in blue) and 2022 (in red) Source: Office for National Statistics – Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

7.2

Government pay data is failing to address systemic biases against BAEM workers It is crucial that official data helps rather than hinders the fight against racism, inequality and systemic biases in the workplace. As things stand, however, government data is failing BAEM by failing to make a useful contribution to this struggle.

It is already a statutory requirement for employers with at least 250 employees to measure and report gender pay gaps. In May the government finally issued guidance which sets out a consistent approach to measuring ethnic pay differences, but they said that they will not make it mandatory.97 This is a complete reversal of their commitment to make ethnicity pay gap reporting mandatory in 2022.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

85

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

86

Lutfur Ali, a senior Equality Diversity and Inclusion adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, cautioned that the choice indirectly continues "systemic biases" and hinders progress "towards achieving greater equality of outcomes for all ethnic minority individuals." He also highlighted the effectiveness of mandatory gender pay gap reporting in addressing disparities between men and women as a precedent.

Ethnicity Pay Gap (EPG) reporting is more complex than Gender Pay Gap reporting. There may be decisions about how to combine different ethnic groups to ensure their results are reliable, statistically sound and protect confidentiality. But it is not an impossible job.

The ONS has previously released an analysis of earnings and employment statistics for different ethnic groups – where they used regression analysis to provide more insight into factors that affect pay. However, the last report is over three years old.98 One reason they may not have updated the analysis is the weakness of the data. Unite analysis of ONS data last year saw large year-onyear changes in the EPG for different groups of between 10% and 20%. We believe these EPGs are simply not plausible and are far more likely to be down to the weakness of the survey data.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Unite can help Reps conduct an Equal Pay Audit to help scrutinise pay rates and jobs more openly, to identify pay gaps and measures to close them. As discussed in Section 5, we are working on our own data collection projects, to pick up the slack from government failures. With your help these will become powerful tools in the fight for equality.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How are different demographic groups being impacted?

Facts and Figures

87

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION EIGHT

OVERALL ECONOMY 8.

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

8.1

The UK economy is worth £2.5 trillion and is growing, but bosses and shareholders are reaping more rewards than workers 91

8.1.1

Unite is producing tools and reports for Officers and Reps to fight back against flawed economic arguments 93

8.2

Official forecasts predict slow-but-steady growth to continue in 2024, but workplace power is needed to ensure workers benefit 94

8.3

Manufacturing and construction are among the fastestgrowing sectors 95

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

91

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

89

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

90

We need to fix our broken economy right now and not allow growth targets to be used as an excuse for delay or a smokescreen for fresh rounds of austerity. Workers earn less today in real terms than they did in 1997 and the divide between the rich and the rest of us is growing ever wider. We urgently need to look at how we divide the pie not just how to make it bigger.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

8.

8.1

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

The UK economy is worth £2.5 trillion and is growing, but bosses and shareholders are reaping more rewards than workers The government's and bosses' favourite statistic to describe the state of the economy is GDP growth. Currently, GDP is growing slowly - it grew by 0.2% in July 2023, narrowly avoiding a recession.

They may use this to say there is not enough money for pay rises, and use it as an excuse to low-ball us at the negotiating table. Reps and Officers can hit back against this narrative with economic arguments and statistics that show the economic 'pie' is big enough for decent pay rises, if less of it went towards employers' profits.

Figure 37 The pattern for overall GDP since the recovery from the pan-

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

demic has been neither much growth nor a recession but essentially stagnation. Source: ONS1

The UK is the sixth largest economy in the world. UK GDP is a staggering £2.5 trillion.99 Instead of overall growth rates, Reps

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

91

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

92

can point to this immense amount, then ask how it is being shared.

To do this, they can use figures on the share of the economy going to labour versus profits. Income across the economy can be divided into wages and other labour-related income (the 'wage share' or 'labour share') and profits.

This isn't a recent issue, it's a long-term phenomenon. As the chart belowFigure 38 shows, over the last 50 years the labour share of the economy has fallen compared to profits.

Figure 38 The long-term picture is that bosses are taking a greater share of national income than they were before the 1970s

Reps can also argue that wages are not directly linked to GDP. The average GDP growth rate between 1950-2010 was around 2.5% a year, a similar rate to other large European economies. This only translated into a bigger slice of the pie for labour when workplace power was strong.100 Since 2010, the UK economy has grown at around 1.5% a year. But at the same time we have had falling real wages, falling household income, growing inequality, declining public services, and a total failure to invest in a sustainable future.

These are the measures that really matter to working people.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

8.1.1

Unite is producing tools and reports for Officers and Reps to fight back against flawed economic arguments Through our various tools and reports, Unite is arming reps with the information and confidence to push back against these flawed arguments. Recent research by Unite Investigates shows that: GDP growth is not the real issue, workers' and their households' incomes are;

GDP growth has slowed over the last 50 years due largely to low business investment and the role of financialisation;

There has been a 'decoupling' of pay and productivity since the 1980s in many countries, with productivity growing far quicker than the pay of the workers who drive that productivity;

The decline in workers' power is closely linked to this decoupling the labour share has fallen since the 1970s and pay inequality has grown since the 1990s All of the above signal deep underlying issues with our broken economy. Unite says there is an alternative: The Real Economy. n Jobs: dignified, meaningful work, with good conditions. n Pay: the money in our pockets. n Living standards: our ability to afford a decent life for ourselves and our loved ones. n Public services: including health, education, care, and public space.

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

n A liveable future: making sure there is a decent world to live in for ourselves and our children and grandchildren n Power: having decision-making power in our own lives, including in our workplaces and communities.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

93

Facts and Figures

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Economic growth will not be a magic guarantee of a decent life for all. The real problem is distribution: where the money goes. And power: who gets to decide.

8.2

Official forecasts predict slow-but-steady growth to continue in 2024, but workplace power is needed to ensure workers benefit GDP has been higher than expected in 2023. Back in late 2022 most forecasts were for a fall in GDP in the following year, which employers may have used as an excuse for limiting pay deals however, GDP looks set to grow this year after all.101 A variety of official and market forecasts show consumer and business confidence is not as low as employers might like to suggest, and that the economy will perform positively over the next year. The OECD Consumer Confidence Index has been consistently higher in 2023 than it was the previous year.102 Reps can use the figures below in negotiations and to call out employers using a 'doom and gloom' economic narrative to justify low pay deals.

Overall, forecasts for 2024 predict that the UK economy is likely to grow in 2024, so there will be more income for workers and bosses to bargain over: n 1.8% (Office for Budget Responsibility, March 2023)103 n 0.5% (NIESR, November 2023)104 n 0.5% (average of independent forecasts for October 2023) ranging from -0.5% to 1.9%.105 The following indicators from official sources show the current confidence of consumers and businesses: n The GfK Consumer Confidence indicator is around 15 points higher than a year ago: this is good news for businesses which sell to the public.106 n Deloitte's Consumer Tracker found confidence in Q3 2023 at its highest level since Q4 2021.107 n According to the Lloyds Business Barometer, business confidence improved in October to the second highest level in 2023.108

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

8.3

Manufacturing and construction are among the fastest-growing sectors Many industries are growing faster than the overall economy and Reps in these sectors can point to this when negotiating with employers. Arts & recreation and Administrative and support service activities activity grew over 4% between July-September 2022 and the same period a year later. Overall, nine out of nineteen sectors grew over that period, including health, education and hospitality.

Taking a longer term view, over the past ten years, the fastest growing sector in terms of activity has been Information and communication, followed by the Administration, professional and other services, and Water, which have all grown by over 13% in real terms. Workers in these sectors can point to an increase in economic activity across a decade when making demands for improved pay.109

12019=100 means that average monthly GDP in 2019 is set to 100, and the values

in the chart are relative to that. A1

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is happening to the economy as a whole?

Facts and Figures

95

96

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION NINE

CORPORATE FINANCE 9.

What is going on in the world of corporate finance?

99

9.1

Stock markets have risen in the last year, led by the US S&P 500 with a 22% rise

99

9.2

As companies increase their wealth and power through mergers and acquisitions we must protect jobs, pay and conditions 100

9.2.1

US chip company Vishay Intertechnology has agreed to buy the UK's largest chip company, Newport Wafer Fab101

9.2.2

The US betting giant DraftKings has discussed making a takeover bid for the betting group 888, which owns William Hill 102

9.3

Unite is campaigning against the proposed merger of Three and Vodafone, which threatens 1,600 jobs losses and increases in mobile phone bills of up to £300 per year 104

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the latest from the stock market?

Facts and Figures

97

What is the latest from the stock market?

Facts and Figures

98

Put simply: rising stock prices show us that many firms have the ability to pay.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

9.1

What is going on in the world of corporate finance?

Stock markets have risen in the last year, led by the US S&P 500 with a 22% rise The major stock markets of the Western world have all risen in the past year. The US S&P 500 was the fastest growing of the major markets with a 22% rise, followed by the MSCI World with 21%.

The UK's FTSE 350 rose by 7%.110 Rising share prices are an indication of investors' confidence in future profits and the ability to pay for companies listed on stock exchanges.

Figure 39 Index level stock prices for the S&P 500, FTSE 350 and MSCI World have all grown since last September. Source: F3, Capital IQ

What is the latest from the stock market?

9.

Pro.

The S&P 500 index tracks the share price of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The MSCI World does the same for 1,500 of the largest listed companies in the world. However, in reality, 70% of its constituents are US based.111 The FTSE 350 tracks the 350 biggest companies on the London stock exchange.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

99

What is the latest from the stock market?

Facts and Figures

100

The positive performance of listed companies is a good sign across many sectors when it comes to pay negotiations.

While rising stock price does not typically put more money directly into a company's pockets, it does signal a vote of confidence in a company's prospects and, to some extent, in the economy as a whole.

Stock prices outside the UK matter to our members because so many of our employers are parts of multinational groups based overseas.

Over 55% of our private sector members at our biggest employers are employed by groups headquartered outside the UK.

9.2

As companies increase their wealth and power through mergers and acquisitions we must protect jobs, pay and conditions Mergers and acquisitions are often bad news for workers at the companies that are involved. These business deals invariably come with risks to jobs or significant changes to industrial relations within a company – developments that require the active engagement of union members to ensure our rights, jobs, pay and conditions are protected.

Mergers should be a red flag for workers to organise to protect the gains they have made, secure job protection agreements, and make sure our union has a voice in any coming changes. If an employer is making acquisitions it can also be a sign that they have a clear ability to pay or are moving into new business sectors.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

When a company combines with a competitor – either through a merger of equals or by snapping up smaller players in the industry – it hopes to enjoy a number of advantages: n Access to new customers, new technology, and new markets n A larger market share, which might help them to control and raise prices n The ability to combine certain types of operations (sales, human resources, financial, etc.) and subsequently cut jobs. In corporate-speak, these are often referred to as "economies of scale" n Better access to financing There are several current mergers under way that may affect Unite members.

9.2.1

What is the latest from the stock market?

Facts and Figures

US chip company Vishay Intertechnology has agreed to buy the UK's largest chip company, Newport Wafer Fab The US chip company Vishay Intertechnology has agreed to buy the UK's largest chip company, Newport Wafer Fab, for $177 million.

Newport Wafer Fab will be acquired from the Dutch semiconductor National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

101

Facts and Figures company Nexperia, which is ultimately owned by the Chinese chip manufacturer Wingtech Technology.

What is the latest from the stock market?

Newport Wafer Fab has 350 staff, many of whom are Unite members.112 Semiconductor chips made at the factory, which is based in Newport, South Wales, are used in millions of electronic products, from smartphones to household equipment and cars.113

Figure 40 The Newport Wafer Fab factory

Nexperia was ordered by the UK government to sell its stake in Newport Wafer Fab due to national security concerns. The government was concerned about one of the UK's only strategic semiconductor assets being sold to a Chinese-owned company.114 Nexperia only bought Newport Wafer Fab for around $74 million in 2021, indicating that the company has significantly increased in value in the last two years.115 The new owners stand to profit handsomely from a company which appears to be rapidly increasing in value. Through building their power in the workplace, Unite members at Newport Wafer Fab can ensure that they share in these gains.

9.2.2

The US betting giant DraftKings has discussed making a takeover bid for the betting group 888, which owns William Hill In November, it was reported that the US betting group DraftKings had discussed a takeover bid for the Gibraltar-headquartered

102

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

betting company 888 Holdings plc, which owns the betting chain William Hill.116

Figure 41 A William Hill betting shop

The takeover discussions took place in the summer, and nothing was confirmed. Any bid would have valued 888 at a significantly higher total to the amount its shares trade on the stock market. At the time the deal was discussed, 888's shares traded at a combined total of £550 million.118 If a takeover offer for 888 does materialise, Unite members at William Hill will need to organise to ensure their jobs and conditions are protected, and that they get a fair pay deal from the company's new owners.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What is the latest from the stock market?

Unite has hundreds of members at William Hill.117

103

Facts and Figures

What is the latest from the stock market?

9.3

Unite is campaigning against the proposed merger of Three and Vodafone, which threatens 1,600 jobs losses and increases in mobile phone bills of up to £300 per year One major merger on the horizon is the proposed combination of the UK operations of the mobile operators Three and Vodafone.

This is a classic example of a merger posing major risks to workers and consumers, with only the campaigning of Unite to ensure that their interests are protected.

For the companies, the merger represents an opportunity to boost profits by enabling job cuts and huge price increases. Research compiled by Unite has revealed that the merger could result in up to 1,600 job losses and see the price of mobile bills increase by as much as £300 per year.

Unite is building a growing campaign in opposition to the merger, with over 40 MPs supporting the us. The merger was criticised at a debate in parliament in September, and a Unite researcher exposed the risks posed by the merger at a session of parliament's Business and Trade Committee in October.

Figure 42 Logo for Unite's campaign against the proposed Three-Vodafone merger

It was the anti-worker actions of Three's parent company, the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison, which brought the merger 104

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

to the attention of Unite in the first place. During legal industrial action by Unite members at the Port of Felixstowe in 2022, the company sacked four Unite reps - the Felixstowe Four - on trumped up charges. Prior to being victimised, they had worked at the port for a combined total of over 100 years. This was a straightforward attempt to break workers' organisation at the Port through intimidation. Unite will always defend reps, and the victimisation of the Felixstowe Four is being actively resisted by the Union.

Figure 43 Unite raising the victimisation of the Felixstowe Four at the Business and Trade Committee

This type of anti-union management, coupled with job cuts, is going to be a hammer blow for Three and Vodafone workers if the merger goes ahead.

Without Unite's campaigning and organisation, politicians wouldn't care about the risks posed by the merger, and the treatment handed out to the Felixstowe Four would go unchallenged. Only collective organisation by Unite members can ensure that mergers don't threaten the interests of workers, and that anti-union activity by bad employers is robustly challenged.

What is the latest from the stock market?

Facts and Figures

n You can follow the development of the campaign against the merger via the following Twitter/X account: https://twitter.com/StopThreeVoda National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

105

106

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION TEN

STRIKES 10.

Where are we on strike?

110

10.1

Unite members in over 30 employers across Britain and Ireland are due to take industrial action in November 110

10.1.1 Go North East bus workers step-up strike action with all-out strike

111

10.1.2 Dithering by Warrington council means that refuse strikes will extend into the festive season

112

10.2

Picket line report: 500 workers at Scottish Water will take 48 days of strike action in a dispute over pay and grading 113

10.3

Balloting Brief: Members from 34 workplaces are balloting for industrial action to fight for jobs, pay and conditions 114

Where are we on strike?

Facts and Figures

10.3.1 Offshore drillers working for Odfjell are being balloted over the company's refusal to reform working rotas and provide paid annual leave 116 10.3.2 Workers at Chivas Brothers distilleries and warehouses balloted over inadequate pay offer 117 10.3.3 Oxfam workers across the UK are balloting for strike action for the first time after rejecting a substandard National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

118 107

Facts and Figures pay offer US automotive union UAW recently secured 25%+ pay increases with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis 118

Where are we on strike?

10.4

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Unite’s pay victories would not, and could not, have been achieved without the dedication and commitment of its members, who have been prepared to put their heads above the parapet and a make a stand against their employers to secure fair pay deals Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Where are we on strike?

Facts and Figures

109

Facts and Figures

10. Where are we on strike?

10.1 Unite members in over 30 employers across Britain and Ireland are due to take industrial action in November

Where are we on strike?

Thousands of Unite members in over 30 workplaces are set to take industrial action in the next month. The table below shows those where strike dates have been announced. In addition, 24 Local Authorities in England and Wales have live strike mandates but dates are yet to be decided.

Since August 2021 over 150,000 Unite members have together entered into more than 900 disputes. Eight out of every 10 results have been a success and Unite has delivered an extra £420 million for members. That is the Unite premium, the benefit of being a member of the UK’s leading union.

Dispute

Dates

Cardiff Council 25 September to 26 November (National LA dispute) St Barts NHS Trust

6-17 November

Klarius

6 November to 1 December

Altrad Babcock

6, 7, 13, 14, 20, 21 27, 28 November 4, 5, 11, 12 December

Go North East

Continuous action

Maen Karne

Continuous action

14, 16, 20, 23, 24, 27, 28, 30 Imperial Logistics / DP November World 1, 4, 6, 8 December First Glasgow (No1) 16-17 November First Glasgow (No2) 10-13, 17-20, 24-27 November 1-4, 8-11, 15-18, 22-25 December Scottish Water 29 December to 1 January 5-8, 12-15, 19-22 January

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Facts and Figures

Table 1: List of strike dates in November and December

More than 1,300 workers at Go North East depots have been engaged in all-out continuous strike action since 28 October.

The workers include bus drivers, engineers, maintenance workers, and depot crews. This comes on the back of two previous weeks of industrial action, from 30th September to 6th October and from 14th October to 20th October.

At the end of October, Go North East members overwhelming rejected the employer's latest "insulting" pay offer. Go North East can easily afford to increase its offer given the latest accounts of its parent company, the Go-Ahead Group, shows bus group profits of nearly £85 million. Unite have calculated that the dispute could be resolved for approximately £238,000 - less than the pay for two Go North East directors.

Further talks aimed at bringing the continuous bus strikes in the North East to an end have ended in a stalemate. Unite is prepared to return to talks at any stage and engage in constructive negotiations but this requires good faith from both parties.

Unite previously won a major victory in 2021 after a major leverage against the Go Ahead Group forced the company to abandon its fire and rehire policy at Go North West. Unite is now preparing to take on the company again to make sure our members get the pay deal they deserve.

Where are we on strike?

10.1.1 Go North East bus workers step-up strike action with allout strike

“Go North East’s utter unwillingness to improve its pay offer in the slightest shows its blatant disregard for the wellbeing of its workers and the communities they serve. The company could end the strikes with a stroke of a pen by utilising the merest fraction of its profits but it is choosing not to do so.” General Secretary, Sharon Graham

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

111

Where are we on strike?

Facts and Figures

10.1.2 Dithering by Warrington council means that refuse strikes will extend into the festive season A fourth phase of strike action by refuse workers at Warrington Council will take place from 21st November until 4th December.

More than 70 Unite members at the council have said that the national pay offer of a flat rate increase of £1,925 is not good enough, as it is below the rate of inflation and amounts to a real terms pay cut.

A provisional agreement was reached in November, however the council hasn't confirmed the proposals in writing, meaning Unite can't consult its members on the proposal. This unnecessary dithering and delay by the council means that the refuse workers have extended their industrial action.

Unite's membership at the Warrington depot has doubled over the course of the dispute. The workers are taking a stand to ensure they get the pay increase they deserve.

“Warrington council is failing the workers and failing its residents.

These delays are completely unnecessary and the reason why strike action could extend into the Christmas period. In the last 10

112

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Where are we on strike?

years local authority workers have lost a quarter of their real terms incomes because of austerity, pay freezes and the rising cost of living. It is no wonder refuse workers are joining Unite. Our membership has doubled at the Warrington depot. The council needs to find a sense of urgency and work with Unite to resolve this dispute.”

Unite regional officer, Samantha Marshall

Figure 44 Refuse workers at Warrington Council take action

10.2 Picket line report: 500 workers at Scottish Water will take 48 days of strike action in a dispute over pay and grading 500 workers at Scottish Water will take 48 days of strike action over the next three months. The first round of action will take place from 10-13 November, with the last round taking place from 26-29 January.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

113

Facts and Figures The dispute centres on Unite accusing Scottish Water bosses of bypassing long-standing collective bargaining processes involving trade unions. This specifically relates to a new ‘reward system’ which Scottish Water bosses are trying to impose on the workforce which is also being tied to the 2023 pay offer.

Where are we on strike?

Due to the key frontline roles undertaken by members in sewers, water treatment centres and on pipework, Unite believes the strike action will significantly impair Scottish Water’s ability to respond to water leakages, flooding, pollution, and drinking water quality concerns.

The strike action coincides with criticism of Scottish Water's new CEO, Alex Plant, for earning an annual salary of £295,000, in breach of the Scottish Government’s public sector pay rules. Only industrial action by Unite members can ensure workers at the company get a fair deal.

“Scottish Water has failed to address the concerns of our members. Instead, Scottish Water has continued to press ahead with its proposed new grading structure which they are foolishly linking to the pay offer. Talks have been a waste of time. It appears to be the case that the bosses in the boardroom will only listen to us when our members have taken to the picket lines across Scotland. Unite will fully support our members in the fight for better jobs, pay and conditions at Scottish Water.” Unite General Secretary, Sharon Graham

10.3 Balloting Brief: Members from 34 workplaces are balloting for industrial action to fight for jobs, pay and conditions Unite members continue to fight for better jobs, pay, and conditions with fair and decent pay rises being essential during this cost of living crisis.

From mid-November to mid-December members at 34 workplaces are balloting for action. From Passenger Transport to Construction, Health to Aerospace, Unite members are showing that they are prepared to fight back against bad bosses.

Employer

Sector

Rudolph & Hellmann Automotive Automotive

114

Ballot notice

Closing

18/10/2023 15/11/2023

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Sector

Ballot notice

Langstane Housing Association Ltd

CYWNFP

25/10/2023 16/11/2023

Citybus Limited

Passenger Transport

23/10/2023 16/11/2023

Ulsterbus Limited

Passenger Transport

23/10/2023 16/11/2023

Cammell Laird Shiprepairers & Shipbuilders Ltd

Aerospace & 16/10/2023 20/11/2023 Shipbuilding

Employer

Closing

Liberty Gas Group Limited (CrawConstruction 18/10/2023 20/11/2023 ley Borough Council contract) Mears Group Plc (Crawley Borough Council contract)

Construction 18/10/2023 20/11/2023

Wates Property Services Limited (Crawley Borough Council contract)

Construction 18/10/2023 20/11/2023

Milestone Infrastructure Limited (Hampshire County Council contract)

Construction 18/10/2023 20/11/2023

Suez Recycling and Recovery UK Local Limited (Kirklees & Dewsbury conAuthorities tracts)

27/10/2023 20/11/2023

CBL Cable Contractors Limited

Construction 31/10/2023 20/11/2023

Chivas Brothers Limited

FDA

23/10/2023 20/11/2023

ADM Milling Limited

RTCWL

24/10/2023 21/11/2023

National Education Union (mobile staff members within North West CYWNFP Region)

02/11/2023 22/11/2023

Oxfam GB

CYWNFP

25/10/2023 22/11/2023

CMBC Supply Limited (Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company)

FDA

26/10/2023 22/11/2023

2gether Support Solutions Limited

Health

Where are we on strike?

Limited

23/11/2023

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

115

Facts and Figures

Where are we on strike?

Employer

Sector

Ballot notice

Closing

Mitie Limited (Security Officer Services members within Bank of England)

07/11/2023 27/11/2023

GXO Supply Chain UK Limited

RTCWL

06/11/2023 27/11/2023

Wincanton Plc - Asda Rochdale

RTCWL

06/11/2023 27/11/2023

North East Lincolnshire Council Gilbey Road

Local

Equans Regeneration Ltd

Construction 07/11/2023 28/11/2023

Leonardo UK Ltd (four sites)

Aerospace & 31/10/2023 29/11/2023 Shipbuilding

31/10/2023 28/11/2023 Authorities

International N&H Manufacturing CPPT UK Limited

06/11/2023 30/11/2023

Suez Recycling & Recovery UK Ltd RTCWL - Cornwall, St Austell

09/11/2023 30/11/2023

Transcontinental AC UK Ltd

CPPT

31/10/2023 04/12/2023

C P Pharmaceuticals Limited Wrexham

CPPT

02/11/2023 04/12/2023

Odfjell Technology (UK) Ltd (two platforms)

CPPT

13/10/2023 07/12/2023

Local Cheshire West Recycling Limited

03/11/2023 11/12/2023 Authorities

Greenwich Leisure Limited - Royal Local Borough of Greenwich Libraries Authorities

02/11/2023 13/12/2023

10.3.1 Offshore drillers working for Odfjell are being balloted over the company's refusal to reform working rotas and provide paid annual leave Hundreds of offshore drillers working for Odfjell are being balloted in a dispute over working rotas and paid annual leave. The dispute involves crews on Equinor's Mariner unit and several units operated by TAQA. The drillers currently work three weeks on and three weeks off, which leaves them at a disadvantage compared with other offshore workers on the installations operated by Equinor and TAQA.

116

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Odfjell and the operators have said that any change to working rotas will result in the drillers having to sacrifice pay - however, Odfjell's most recent accounts show the company increased its profit after tax to £6.1 million in 2022, up from £2.6 million in 2021.

Offshore drillers at Odfjell are pushing back against the company's intransigence, and fighting to ensure they get a better deal.119 “It’s a scandal that Odfjell along with the operators Equinor and TAQA refuse to change their working rotas to put the drillers on the same footing as other workers on the installations. Unite will support our members every step of the way in the fight for better jobs, pay and conditions.” Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham

Where are we on strike?

Facts and Figures

10.3.2 Workers at Chivas Brothers distilleries and warehouses balloted over inadequate pay offer Unite members at Chivas Brother distilleries and warehouses across Scotland are being balloted on strike action. Unite represents hundreds of members at the company’s Kilmalid, Dalmuir, Beith, Strathclyde Grain and Strathisla distilleries, and the Dumbuck warehouse facility, among others.120 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

117

Facts and Figures Unite members previously rejected a 6.4 per cent pay offer by 97 per cent, and Chivas Brothers have not made an improved pay offer. Inflation stood at 11.3 per cent when the workers’ pay increase should have been implemented.

Chivas Brothers made a profit after tax of £168.5 million in 2022. In August, the company further announced that its 2022/23 full-year net sales were up by 17%, taking total sales to a ten-year high.

Where are we on strike?

Workers at Chivas Brothers have delivered major profits and growth for the company, and are demanding they get a fair pay deal from the company.

10.3.3 Oxfam workers across the UK are balloting for strike action for the first time after rejecting a substandard pay offer Oxfam office and retail workers, most earning little more than the minimum wage, rejected a pay offer of £1,750 or six per cent (whichever is higher), plus a one-off payment of £1,000. Average wages at Oxfam have fallen by 21% in real terms since 2018.121 The charity is now seeking to impose the offer and is refusing to engage in further negotiations with Unite, even though the union’s members rejected it by 79% in a ballot.

A recent survey of nearly 150 Oxfam workers found that in the last year 8% had used foodbanks, 22% had not been able to pay their rent, and 34% have had to choose between heating their homes and feeding their families. By contrast, the charity has cash reserves of £44.6 million - the highest total in at least five years.

The workers are angry that their request for a pay rise has been denied, despite staff voluntarily accepting pay freezes for two out of the last five years. Unite will fight all the way for better jobs, pay and conditions.

10.4

US automotive union UAW recently secured 25%+ pay increases with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis In September 2023, the US automotive union United Auto Workers (UAW) took simultaneous strike action against the Detroit 'Big 3' Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis - for the first time in its history.

118

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

UAW focused its bargaining agenda on profiteering by the Big 3, including CEO pay, corporate profits, and payouts to shareholders.

Stellantis alone, for example, plans to return £1.4 billion to shareholders via share buybacks in 2023.

UAW's strike strategy involved a programme of weekly escalation, starting with assembly plants, then escalating to 38 parts and distribution centres across the US, then to two further assembly plants.

Where are we on strike?

The strike demands included a double-digit pay increase to match the average pay increase of the CEOs of the Big 3, elimination of wage tiers, and an extension of collective agreements to cover electric vehicle joint ventures, among other claims. By November, the industrial action had secured a 25%+ pay increase over the next four years across all three companies, as well as a host of other improvements.122

Figure 45 UAW members on a picket line outside a Ford assembly plant in Chicago

A Unite delegation visited UAW picket lines in October, and observed striking similarities between the situation facing UAW members in the US and the situation facing Unite members in the UK. For example, there are Unite members at both Stellantis and Ford operations in the UK, and tiered pay and National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

119

Facts and Figures widespread use of temporary contracts are issues facing workers on both sides of the Atlantic.

If union members in the US can win large pay increases from the Big 3, then so too can Unite members at their operations in the UK.

Where are we on strike?

"We stand willing and ready to be there for you and your members in your struggles against the greedy bosses. All you need to do is make the call. Because, when we fight together, we win together!" Shawn Fain, UAW President

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SECTION ELEVEN

NEGOTIATIONS THIS MONTH 11.

Which negotiations take place this month?

11.1

Around 15,000 members will be negotiating with over 60 employers in November, including members at Ford, JLR and Lothian Buses 125

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

125

Which negotiations take place this month?

Facts and Figures

123

Which negotiations take place this month?

Facts and Figures

124

Collective bargaining is still the tried and tested method of pushing up pay.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

11. Which negotiations take place this month?

11.1 Around 15,000 members will be negotiating with over 60 employers in November, including members at Ford, JLR and Lothian Buses Unite's Pay and Anniversary Date database, part of the Work Voice Pay suite of tools, can help us co-ordinate action across employers and sectors. By coordinating anniversary dates, we can benchmark pay rises and build power across our industries.

Whilst April and the start of the new financial year is the most common time for pay agreements, thousands of members are negotiating every single month.

This November there will be over 15,000 members at over 60 different employers negotiating their pay and conditions.

The graph below shows the top 10 employers where negotiations are due to take place in November 2023.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Which negotiations take place this month?

Facts and Figures

125

Facts and Figures Figure 46 Top 10 employers (by approximate membership numbers)

Which negotiations take place this month?

negotiating pay deals in November 2023, Source Unite WVP

126

High quality information is vital for coordinating action across industries. Unite is currently working on several projects to gather information and data to help our members win, but also projects to make use of what we already have.

n Please submit details of your anniversary date to Work Voice Pay.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

127

Which negotiations take place this month?

128

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION TWELVE

UNITE EMPLOYERS 12.

Who do our members really work for?

12.1

Around half of Unite's members are likely employed by companies headquartered outside the UK 131

12.2

Three-quarters of Unite members are employed by companies that generate annual revenue of £1 billion or more 132

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

131

Who do our members really work for?

Facts and Figures

129

Who do our members really work for?

Facts and Figures

We need to understand who really makes the decisions that impact our members. Knowing where the power lies in a firm helps us understand who we need to move to win.

130

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

Facts and Figures

12.1 Around half of Unite's members are likely employed by companies headquartered outside the UK It is crucial for us to know who we are really bargaining with. While a company might claim that the site manager in Derby is the key decision maker, in reality it is the CEO in Detroit who ultimately holds power. Recent Unite research has uncovered the range of companies our Reps and Shop Stewards negotiate with.

We estimate that less than half (44.5%) of Unite members are known to be employed by companies headquartered in the UK - meaning the majority are likely employed by companies headquartered overseas. In a global capitalist system, employers of Unite members may be based anywhere in the world. While it may seem like we are bargaining with a local employer, the reality may be that we are dealing with a huge multinational. 123 When we know who really owns the companies we work for, we can often identify additional pots of money that can be used for pay rises and learn the identity of the key decision makers we need to move. Unite's new Financial Insider tool has been set up to help reps better understand the financial story of their employer from the workers' perspective.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Who do our members really work for?

12. Who do our members really work for?

131

Who do our members really work for?

Facts and Figures

Figure 47 More than half of Unite's members are employed by companies whose headquarters are outside of the UK. Country location of headquarters of Global Ultimate Owner. Source: Fame and Unite membership data.

The most common company HQ for the other 56% is the United States, which covers nearly 11% of members. In addition, 28% of Unite members work for companies based in Europe (excluding the UK,) with the Americas the next largest region with 13% of members. Just over 7% of members global ultimate owner could not be traced.

12.2 Three-quarters of Unite members are employed by companies that generate annual revenue of £1 billion or more We have combined membership and company data for Unite employers with more than 50 members to analyse the type of employers we bargain with. Among private sector employers (which covers the majority of Unite members), manufacturing, services, finance, and transportation are the most common industries.

Unite members are most likely to be employed by large companies with significant financial muscle: 76% of members we analysed are employed by companies generating revenue of

132

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

It is clear that the vast majority of employers we negotiate with have the ability to pay our members decent wages.

Unite is fully committed to exposing the truth behind companies’ ability to pay and arming our shop stewards with the facts and figures to win in the workplace.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Who do our members really work for?

over £1 billion per year. Similarly 75% are employed by companies with at least £1 billion in assets.

133

134

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SECTION THIRTEEN

MARKET POWER 13

What market power do we have?

137

13.1

Collective bargaining has driven pay growth up to around 8%

137

13.2

Demand for workers remains at historic highs, improving opportunities to push for large wage increases 139

13.3

Labour shortages are highest in the accomodation and food sector 140

13.4

Just under a quarter of employees in the UK are trade union members, but Unite's membership is growing 141

13.4.1 Trade unions matter beyond the workplace: when workers organise, act and win collectively, society benefits from reduced inequality 142 13.4.2 Actions speak louder than words: we grow membership where we take a stand

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What market power do we have?

Facts and Figures

143

135

What market power do we have?

Facts and Figures

136

Demand for our labour remains at historic highs. This gives us a clear opportunity to build power in the workplace: let's use it.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

13.1 Collective bargaining has driven pay growth up to around 8% Newly-released figures from the Office for National Statistics show pay across the economy rose by 7.5% in September 2023 compared to September 2022.124 This is far quicker nominal pay growth than before Covid. The collective action of workers has driven this rise, with Unite members in the vanguard. Double-digit pay deals such as those described in Section 1 on page 15 have pushed up the overall pay growth rate and inspired other workers to build their own workplace power.

What market power do we have?

13What market power do we have?

Figure 48 Pay is increasing far more quickly than before the Covid period. Source ONS

The impact Unite members' collective power and action has had on driving up wages is a major part of the picture. Unite's recent victories show how a committed focus on building power in the workplace leads to hard cash in our members' pockets. Evidence of

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

137

Facts and Figures

What market power do we have?

the 'Unite Premium' that comes as a result continues to grow. Since Sharon Graham was elected General Secretary in August 2021, Unite members have secured over £420 million for members, winning over 80% of disputes.

"The ONS data is firm proof that collective bargaining with employers reaps rewards for working people, day in, day out.The stark reality is that millions of workers will still be looking at their payslips and wondering how they’re going to afford rising rents, mortgage payments and bills. The battle to push up pay is far from over and we will continue to fight hard, because, as we’ve seen, it works.”

Sharon Graham Policy-makers and bosses are already using the recent wage growth to justify punishing workers. Reporting the news, the BBC's Economics Editor speculated that the Bank of England may use it as cover to hike interest rates again, inflicting further pain on workers with mortgages and loans.125 But the veil was lifted even more dramatically when a CEO’s comments went viral after he called for a rise in unemployment to “put arrogant workers in their place”.126 Tim Gurner, a multi-millionaire property developer, called for unemployment to rise by 50%. Besides showing his ignorance as to what such a dramatic and destructive effect such a policy would have on the economy, it also showed what many in the management class truly think. Only through collective action can workers protect themselves from these individuals who only care about their own power and money.

ONS data on employment is currently under review due to concerns over its accuracy, but the latest semi-official data show the:127 n Employment rate was down by 0.1 percentage points to 75.7%; n Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, which is still fairly low by historical standards; and n Economic inactivity rate unchanged at 20.9%.

138

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Across the economy as whole, there are 3 vacancies for every 100 jobs (October 2023). Whilst this is down on the peak around 4 vacancies witnessed during late 2021 and early 2022, demand for labour remains high128 compared to the last decade (see Figure 49 ).

A 'tight' labour market, where there are a high number of vacancies, can be leveraged by trade unions to increase workers' bargaining power and drive up pay and conditions.

What market power do we have?

13.2 Demand for workers remains at historic highs, improving opportunities to push for large wage increases

Figure 49 The rate of vacancies to jobs remains above its historical average, indicating that workers' bargaining power is strong. Source: ONS

Labour shortages, as measured by the ratio of vacancies to jobs, remains high, which presents opportunities for workers in companies that are hiring.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

139

Facts and Figures 13.3 Labour shortages are highest in the accomodation and food sector

What market power do we have?

High vacancy rates present immediate collective bargaining opportunities drive up pay, conditions and standards. These opportunities can vary sector by sector. For example, the vacancy rate in Accommodation and food service presents the opportunity to organise and increase collective bargaining within a sector with low union density.

140

Figure 50 Vacancy ratio by sector, Top 10. Source: ONS

It can also be useful to compare vacancy ratios to their historical average: how much higher or lower is the vacancy ratio than it was before the pandemic hit. Figure 51 below shows how much higher vacancy ratios are compared to their levels before the pandemic: mining & quarrying and public administration (which includes defence) staff are in a much stronger bargaining position at the moment than 2015-2020.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 51 Vacancy ratio by sector relative to average vacancy ratio 20152020, Top 10. Source: ONS

13.4 Just under a quarter of employees in the UK are trade union members, but Unite's membership is growing Unite is at the vanguard of the fight to rebuild union power by arresting the overall decline in union membership. For the first time since its foundation in 2007, Unite has recorded membership growth in back-to-back quarters. In fact, Unite's membership grew in 5 consecutive quarters between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023.129

What market power do we have?

Facts and Figures

The level of union membership – both at individual workplaces and in the country as a whole – is a key factor in the ability to drive up pay and improve conditions. The more we can grow our membership, the stronger we will be at the bargaining table.

This growth correlates with the renewed focus on winning industrial disputes and building workers' power since the election of Sharon Graham as General Secretary in August 2021.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

141

Facts and Figures

What market power do we have?

Unite's membership growth stands in contrast to a small overall membership decline across the wider UK trade union movement in the last year. Overall, the proportion of UK employees who were trade union members was 22.3% in 2022, the latest year statistics are available. This amounts to a total of 6.25 million union members across the UK, down by 200,000 compared to the previous year.130

Figure 52 UK trade union membership 2016 to 2022. Source: ONS

13.4.1 Trade unions matter beyond the workplace: when workers organise, act and win collectively, society benefits from reduced inequality Over the last 50 years, the UK has seen a general decline in union membership. This has been accompanied by a huge increase in inequality, which remains high to this day. What that effectively means is that as workers' bargaining power declines, employers take a bigger piece of the pie and working people lose out.

Attacks on trade unions by politicians and employers since the 1980s haven't just hurt members, they've hurt the whole country. This is shown in the chart below.

142

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 53 As union density started to decrease in the 1980s, inequality grew. It has remained elevated ever since. Source: ONS and Government Trade Union Statistics.131

In the post war years, inequality in the UK declined, as trade union membership grew.132133 Just as in the 1980s, working people lost out as the union movement declined in power; in the 50s and 60s workers' lives improved as trade unions grew more powerful.

Not just for union members but also for everyone else in the country, we need to organise to increase our membership and collective bargaining coverage.

13.4.2 Actions speak louder than words: we grow membership where we take a stand

What market power do we have?

Facts and Figures

So far, Unite's three fastest-growing industrial sectors this year are Civil Air Transportation, Aerospace & Shipbuilding, and Community, Youth Workers & Not for Profit. It is no coincidence that these sectors have seen important pay and organising victories that have grown our membership and power.

Civil Air Transportation has seen the largest increase this year, with membership up a whopping 13%. This is a result of workers at airports across the country standing up and demanding better deals.

One example of success is when members at Menzies Aviation won National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

143

Facts and Figures a 9% raise in September, accompanied by temporary staff moving onto permanent contracts.

What market power do we have?

Aerospace and Shipbuilding saw a 5% increase in membership. In June, workers at Babcock Devonport won a 13% pay rise: another example of action leading to membership growth.

144

The Community, Youth Workers and Not for Profit sector has also seen a 5% membership increase so far this year - which has been an active year for our members in the sector. Wins at St Mungo's and Magenta Living have been accompanied by securing national recognition agreements at the likes of Mears.

Actions like these drive confidence across our movement, growing our membership and our power.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

146

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION FOURTEEN

COMPANY PROFITS 14.

lasgowWhat is happening to profits?

149

14.1

Companies are squeezing wages while enjoying huge increases in profits, which are up 175% compared to 2020 149

14.2

Banks and utilities companies continue to make huge profits 150

14.2.1 Profits of the big four banks continue to thrive, and members should demand their fair share in upcoming pay rounds 150 14.2.2 BP and Shell have posted massive profits totalling £110 billion over the last two years 151

What is happening to profits?

Facts and Figures

14.2.3 Water companies are raking it in, recording combined operating profits of £2.2 billion in 2023 152 14.3

UK companies invest far less than their peers, with investment levels averaging just 17.9% of GDP, compared to 20%+ in comparable countries

Introducing the Financial Insider 14.4

Accountant's Corner: Demystifying profits

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

154 156 156

147

What is happening to profits?

Facts and Figures

148

Workers’ wages, and what they can afford to buy with them, are being squeezed by corporate profits. Workers create a firm's value and we can win our fair share of it through collective bargaining.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

14.1 Companies are squeezing wages while enjoying huge increases in profits, which are up 175% compared to 2020 In the aftermath of the pandemic, many companies have enjoyed huge profits, while pay has failed to keep up with inflation. Annual pre-tax profits hit £315 billion in 2022. These profits show that bosses have a clear ability to meet Unite members' pay demands.

Unite has a number of Work Voice Pay tools that can help identify the sometimes hidden profits of employers.

What is happening to profits?

14. lasgowWhat is happening to profits?

Figure 54 Profits have quickly recovered, and now exceed pre-Covid levels. Pre-tax profits of selected UK companies. Source: CapitalIQ

Our analysis of the combined profits of around 750 UK companies shows that while profits dipped during the pandemic, by 2022 they had more than recovered - rocketing ahead of the levels recorded in the immediate years before Covid. Combined pre-tax profits at these companies have grown by 51% since 2019, reaching a whopping £328 billion in 2022.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

149

Facts and Figures

What is happening to profits?

When compared to their low point in 2020, pre-tax profits have grown by 175%.

150

Combined RPI inflation during the period 2019 to 2022 has been 18%. When this is factored in, over the course of this period companies made an incredible £72 billion profit above inflation.

The huge profits these companies have enjoyed have come at the expense of workers' pay, which has failed to keep up with inflation. These eye-watering profits show that many employers have the ability to pay, making a mockery of the narrative being put forward that it is workers who should pay for the crisis.

Even figures within the financial world are admitting that 'greedflation' - companies taking advantage of the cost of living crisis to boost their profit margins - exists. The Bank of England, no less, admitted in September that 45% of the companies it surveyed said they were planning to increase their margins in the next 12 months. That could mean that inflation remains higher for longer.134 Not content with driving up prices over the last 18 months, the profiteers are now plotting another smash and grab at workers' expense.

14.2 Banks and utilities companies continue to make huge profits 14.2.1 Profits of the big four banks continue to thrive, and members should demand their fair share in upcoming pay rounds The big four high street banks have reported combined profits of £41 billion for the first 9 months of 2023.135 This is 79% higher than they reported for the same period in 2022, when profits were £23 billion. A company recording massive profits is solid evidence of an ability to pay for members in their bargaining round.

Workers in companies recording eye-watering profits such as these should be demanding pay increases at least in line with inflation.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 55 Profits have jumped on the same period last year. Source: Unite analysis of company accounts

What is driving these higher profits? The increased interest rates which we are paying on our mortgages, loans and credit card bills are playing a major role in increasing profits. While the banks enjoy better returns, those with savings will be seeing the value of these savings drop, as inflation will wipe out any extra interest payments.

It is the banks themselves that are winning from the hike in interest rates - as their profits show.

14.2.2 BP and Shell have posted massive profits totalling £110 billion over the last two years

What is happening to profits?

Facts and Figures

When energy prices rose around the start of the war in Ukraine, it unleashed a profit bonanza for the UK's two biggest oil companies.

Since the start of 2022, Shell has raked in £79 billion, while BP has earned £31 billion.136 Shell's average profit in 2022-2023 was almost 9 times higher than in the preceding 3 years. Meanwhile, BP have been more than making up for the modest losses they were making in 2019-2021.137 These two companies should have no hesitation in meeting our members' pay demands.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

151

Facts and Figures

What is happening to profits?

These two companies profits are, like the banks', 'earned' without the companies needing to take any action. Prices go up, and so do profits. But when energy prices go up, so do the prices of everything that uses energy. These two companies sit at the root of the profiteering crisis, driving up prices across the economy while the companies' shareholders hoard their wealth.

Figure 56 Profits at Shell and BP were multiple times higher on average in 2022 and 2023 than the preceeding 3 years (first three quarters of each year). Source: Unite analysis of company accounts.

14.2.3 Water companies are raking it in, recording combined operating profits of £2.2 billion in 2023 The eight largest water companies reported combined operating profits of £2.2 billion in 2023. Over the last ten years they made an average operating profit margin of 30% - higher than most other industries would make - and average profits after interest costs was £1.3 billion.138 This shows there is major scope for workers at these companies to negotiate significant pay increases - the companies can certainly afford to pay.

Water companies often argue that they need to secure high profits so they can finance infrastructure improvements - however 90% of infrastructure investment has been financed by debt over the last five years, and the companies' assets are 84% funded by debt.139

152

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

In fact, we know exactly where these profits are going: to shareholders. An average of 78% of profits have been paid to shareholders over the last five years, with £1.4 billion paid out in 2022/23 alone. Yorkshire Water, for example, has paid out a massive 173% of profits to shareholders over the last five years.140 And who are these shareholders? International investors. The following map shows how the biggest shareholders of English water companies are scattered all over the world:141

Figure 57 Countries where owners of English water companies are based

This situation is the direct result of rampant privatisation - in Scotland and Wales water companies are run on a 'not-for-profit' basis, while all seven English companies are either privately owned or listed on the London Stock Exchange. Clearly, these companies should be run for public need, not corporate greed.

What is happening to profits?

What this means is that rather than using their high profits to pay for infrastructure investment, they're financing this investment through debt - which means the profits are going elsewhere.

On top of their huge payouts to shareholders, UK water companies have been seriously criticised in recent months for discharging raw sewage into seas and rivers, with the water regulator - Ofwat coming under fire for failing to robustly challenge them.142 Commentators have raised concerns about a 'revolving door' between the top management of the water companies and Ofwat officials.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures

What is happening to profits?

In short, water companies are recording massive profits and using these profits to pay out huge dividends instead of using them to invest in the water network or in their workforce. The result: underpaid workers and continual discharges of raw sewage into seas and rivers. Unite members at these water companies can use collective bargaining to demand that, instead of profits flowing to international investors, they should be reinvested in a fair deal for workers and the public.

14.3 UK companies invest far less than their peers, with investment levels averaging just 17.9% of GDP, compared to 20%+ in comparable countries Investment rates have been declining internationally for decades.

This is particularly true for the UK, where investment is now significantly lower than other countries in the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) group of advanced economies.143 At the bargaining table, company bosses will often say that they need to make profits in order for firms to be able to invest for the future. This might be a more convincing argument if companies actually used the profits they make for investment.

Figure 58 Investment in the UK as a percentage of GDP is lower than in other highly industrialized countries. Source: World Bank

While dividend payouts have risen, between 1970 and 1990, UK annual investment levels averaged 23.7% of GDP, but after 154

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

1990 this fell by a quarter, to an annual average of just 17.9%. In contrast, other major OECD economies have, on average, kept their investment levels above 20% of GDP, significantly ahead of what the UK is investing, as the above chart illustrates.144

Globalisation: investment may have shifted away from rich countries into new developing economies with lower costs and fast 'catch-up' growth rates.

Decline of the public sector: the rise of free market politics and economic arguments have meant politicians have shrunk public investment, focusing on reducing fiscal deficits. This has meant declining public investment; but also, declining state support for business investment.

Management short-termism: some writers see a change in business cultures away from long-term planning and towards an emphasis on short-term profit returns for shareholders. This is incentivised by, for example, executive pay linked to share price movements.

Financialisation: Since the 1980s there has been dramatic growth of the financial sector, including banks, but also newer financial institutions such as fund managers and so-called 'shadow banks'.

But at the same time as finance has ballooned, it has been failing in its traditional role of directing savings into productive investment.

Instead, many argue the swollen finance redirects capital into short-term profit-seeking and speculative bubbles.

What is happening to profits?

Some of the explanations of why investment has declined in the UK since the 1980s include:145

All of these possible causes point to two conclusions: our economic system is not set up to encourage investment; nor is it able to direct investment where it is most productive.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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Facts and Figures 14.4 Accountant's Corner: Demystifying profits

What is happening to profits?

The subject of profits is bound to come up in any pay negotiation. But there are lots of different terms used, and they can be confusing. Here’s an explainer on the main ones you’re likely to hear.

Gross profit is the profit a company makes after allowing for the costs that are directly related to the product or service being sold. This can include the cost of components, workers' wages, and the costs of running a factory.

Operating profit is the money a company makes after allowing for all costs, apart from interest and corporation tax. Distribution costs, the IT, HR, finance and sales teams, plus the CEO’s pay will all be included in the calculation of operating profit.

Profit before tax ('pre-tax profit') is the profit made after allowing for all the costs included in the calculation of operating profit, plus financing costs.

Net profit, or net income, is a company’s final annual profit, after allowing for the cost of corporation tax.

This is the amount that can potentially be distributed to shareholders by way of dividend payments.

Companies will use different measures of profit to try and plead poverty or pull the wool over negotiators' eyes. But by understanding the types of profit a company makes, Unite reps can push back against employers' claims and highlight their ability to meet our members' demands in pay negotiations.

156

Introducing the Financial Insider Ever wanted to know how much profit your company is making? Or whether the amount they are spending on employees is going up or down?

How about the cost of a decent pay increase?

Well a new digital tool, Financial Insider, will help answer those questions, and more. It is a powerful upgrade to the collective bargaining tools that Unite offers members.

You can access the Financial Insider Tool here.

You’ll need a WVP password to access Financial Insider, and you can request one by sending an email to workvoicepay@unitetheunion.org If you have questions on the Financial Insider, you can click the links on the webpage to get help from Unite's Forensic Accountant.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

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National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION FIFTEEN

CEOs AND SHAREHOLDERS 15.

15.1

How much of the pie is going to CEOs and shareholders?

161

FTSE 100 chief executive pay in 2022 was 118 times that of the average worker

161

15.1.1 Astrazeneca boss Pascal Soriot topped the CEO fat cat league in 2022, raking in over £15 million 161 15.2 15.3

Shareholders are enjoying a dividend bonanza, while workers' pay lags behind

162

UK companies paid out another £55.5 billion in cash to shareholders in 2022 through share buybacks 164

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

159

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

160

CEOs are being highly rewarded for overseeing greedflation and shareholders are getting rich from it. Unite research has repeatedly shown that profiteering is a key cause of higher inflation. We have to ask ourselves, who is the economy for? Workers and communities merely existing isn't good enough.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

15. How much of the pie is going to CEOs and shareholders?

15.1 FTSE 100 chief executive pay in 2022 was 118 times that of the average worker Whenever management says a decent pay rise isn't affordable, reps are entitled to hit back: "well, how much are you getting?" More than likely, the answer will be "a damn sight more than you!" The average FTSE 100 chief executive was paid well over £3 million in 2022, or 118 times more than their average worker.

CEO pay has been surging in the last few years, jumping 16% in 2021 to the highest level since 2017. By comparison, the average wage increased by just 6.7% in that time.146147 The disparity in income has reached ridiculous proportions: it would take just 30 hours for a FTSE 100 CEO to earn what a typical UK worker earns in a year. Too much money is going into the pockets of the bosses and pay claims need to be making clear it is time for workers to get their fair share.148

15.1.1 Astrazeneca boss Pascal Soriot topped the CEO fat cat league in 2022, raking in over £15 million According to the Annual Survey of Household Earnings (ASHE), the highest paid group of workers are ‘Chief executives and senior officials’, with annual median income of £79,835, comfortably more than double that of all other groups of employees.149 Obscene executive salaries are a sure sign that a company has the ability to meet our members pay demands. The top ten highest paid CEOs or directors in the FTSE 100 are listed in the table below.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

161

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

162

Company

CEO

Pay (£m)

AstraZeneca

Pascal Soriot

15.32

BAE Systems

Charles Woodburn

10.69

CRH plc

Albert Manifold

10.38

BP

Bernard Looney

10.03

Experian

Brian Cassin

9.94

Shell plc

Ben van Beurden

9.70

British American Tobacco

Jack Bowles

9.62

Anglo American plc

Mark Cutifani/ Ducan Wanblad

9.54

Endeavour Mining

Sebastien de Montessus

8.99

GSK plc

Emma Walmsley

8.45

Table 2: Highest paid directors by sector, 2022. Source: High Pay Centre

15.2 Shareholders are enjoying a dividend bonanza, while workers' pay lags behind Between 1987 and 2007, dividend payments across British firms averaged just under 20% of annual profits. Since 2008, they have averaged almost 35%.150 Every pound that is gifted to shareholders is a pound taken out of a worker's pocket. Profits generated by workers are lining the pockets of shareholders rather than boosting pay. Unite members in companies that are paying out handsome dividends should be demanding this money goes into a pay increase that at least meets the cost of living.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 59 Companies are paying a huge share of their profits to shareholders in dividends. Percentage of profits paid out in dividends in the UK by non-financial corporations, 1987-2022. Source: ONS National Accounts.

While dividends as a share of the total earnings of non-financial corporations in the UK declined from 42.2% to 30.8% between 2015 and 2022, this remains well above historical levels. In 1987, for example, the share was comparatively small at just 11.9%.151 During the pandemic in 2020, there was a so-called ‘dividend drought’. But the drought appears to be well and truly over: the top 100 listed companies that constitute the FTSE100 index paid out £79.1 billion in dividends in 2022. Market analysts forecast their shareholders will have enjoyed another £78.7 billion by the end of 2023.152 It is no coincidence that some of the sectors that have paid out the largest dividends recently were in parts of the economy that explicitly profited from the cost of living crisis:153 n Banks accounted for one-quarter of the total increase in 2022;

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

n Oil companies paid out 20% more than the previous year;

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

163

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

164

n Mining companies paid out record sums in the first half of 2022, accounting for £1 in every £6 distributed to investors.

Companies that are forecasting the largest dividends per share in 2024 - most of whom are Unite employers - include:154 n Financial services firms Phoenix Group, M&G, Legal & General, Aviva and HSBC; n Tobacco firms British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands; n Telecoms firm Vodafone; n Commodities trading firm Glencore; n Construction firm Taylor Wimpey.

Use Work Voice Pay's new Financial Insider tool to find out how much your employer is paying out in dividends.

15.3 UK companies paid out another £55.5 billion in cash to shareholders in 2022 through share buybacks Share buybacks are another way for companies to splash out cash to their shareholders instead of their workers. According to the Financial Times, European companies have been “buying their own shares in spades.”155 In the UK, share buybacks reached £55.5 billion in 2022. Share buybacks globally were 52% of the size of dividends in 2012, but in 2022 they were almost 94%.156 A share buyback happens when a company 'buys back' its own shares from its shareholders. Shareholders receive hard cash in return for a number of shares, which the company then cancels. This means shareholders' overall stake in the company has not changed as the total number of shares has gone down in the same proportion as their individual holding.157 Share buybacks are important for bargaining as they highlight a company's ability to pay. The cash should be going into a pay rise for workers instead.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 60 Share buybacks have almost doubled in the last decade. Share buybacks, as a percentage of dividends, 2012 versus 2022. Source FT

Buybacks tend to reflect exceptional rather than sustained profits.158So, if a company is celebrating an exceptionally good year, workers need to ensure they are demanding their share of the rewards at the bargaining table rather than shareholders enjoying another pay day.

Across the economy, profiteering companies are using their bumper profits to boost the riches of wealthy shareholders rather than reinvest in operations or their workers: n Shell and BP alone accounted for £22 billion of share buybacks in 2022, while big banks like Lloyds, Natwest and Barclays gave away £5.5 billion to shareholders in buybacks.159 Shell has committed to return up to 30% of its cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.160 n On the back of spiralling food prices, Tesco has also committed to a major share buyback programme worth £750 million by 2024, bringing the total amount of share buybacks since October 2021 to £1.8 billion.161

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

How much of the pie goes to CEOs and shareholders?

Facts and Figures

165

166

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION SIXTEEN

GLOBAL ECONOMY 16.

16.1

What international economic factors are influencing the ability to pay?

Economic growth in the UK's largest export partners is expected to continue in 2024, including a forecasted £168 billion increase in the US 169

16.1.1 Exports make up nearly a third of the UK's national income 16.2

169

170

Supply chain disruptions are now below normal levels 173

16.2.1 Brexit has introduced trading frictions between the UK and EU, but it's not clear there has been any permanent change to exports to the EU 175 16.3

Companies' cost of inputs are falling, which means more money available for collective bargaining

176

16.4

The UK is in the process of joining the CPTPP trade agreement, which could threaten jobs and public services 179

16.5

The value of the British pound fell compared to the U.S. dollar, which is good for companies that export

181

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

16.5.1 The price of British exports relative to imports is at the highest level in years 182 National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

167

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

168

For many of our employers, sales markets are growing and input costs are falling: this gives us power at the negotiating table.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

16. What international economic factors are influencing the ability to pay?

16.1 Economic growth in the UK's largest export partners is expected to continue in 2024, including a forecasted £168 billion increase in the US The UK exports the most to the United States.The US economy has proven more resilient than widely forecast in 2023, and GDP is expected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grow by 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024.162 In addition to many services, among the largest goods commodities the UK exports to the US are machinery & transport equipment, chemicals and mechanical machinery.163 Information on global economic health and key markets for international and multinational companies can help Reps push back against the bosses' argument that "we don't have the money to give you a decent pay rise". Work Voice Pay tools like Unite's Financial Insider can also help reveal the truth about where your employer's money and power lie.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

169

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

170

Figure 61 The UK's largest export markets with, on the right, their projected GDP growth rates for 2024. Source: ONS; GDP forecasts taken from International Monetary Fund, October 2023 Economic Outlook

According to the IMF, all of the UK's top export partners will see their economies grow in 2024, including over 3%+ growth in Ireland and China.164Strong growth rates in an export partner suggest that the demand for UK-produced goods and services may increase, meaning more money available at the bargaining table for workers in those exporting firms. Most of the UK's top export partners are among the richest countries in the world, which also suggests some stability in export demand.

16.1.1 Exports make up nearly a third of the UK's national income Even though the UK runs a trade deficit overall - buying more from abroad than we sell abroad - exports still make up nearly a third of GDP, i.e. a third of national income in a year comes from selling things to other countries.165

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 62 The UK's trade balance has been negative for most of the last few decades. The country runs a large trade deficit in goods, which is partly offset by a trade surplus in services. Source: ONS

The UK imports the most from the United States, Germany, China and the Netherlands, which together account for over £300 billion in imports.166

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

171

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

172

Figure 63 Largest source countries for imports to the UK, 2022. Source: ONS

There are only a handful of the UK's top trading partners where the amount we export is larger than the amount we import (a trade surplus). China, Norway and Germany stand out as nations where the value of UK imports from that country far exceed the value of our exports, i.e. a trade deficit.167

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 64 With most of our top trading partners, the UK imports more than it exports. The chart represents the value of trade balance: UK exports to minus imports from that country for 2022. Source: ONS

16.2 Supply chain disruptions are now below normal levels Over recent years, exiting the European Union, the pandemic, higher energy and commodity prices, and other events have led to supply chain disruption. These disruptions affect workers in terms of the prices we pay for goods, but they also affect workers who may lose hours if the lack of a key component stops or slows production or the delivery of services.

Bosses are often keen to use disruption as negative context for offering less in pay negotiations. But supply chain disruption is now below normal levels, according to the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (see Figure 65 ), which looks at delivery times, backlogs and inventories from manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices across the world.168 Global supply chain pressures were largely unchanged in October 2023 at -1.74, its lowest level since the series started in 1998.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

173

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

174

Figure 65 Global supply chain pressures have eased since early 2022.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

The proportion of UK businesses reporting supply chain disruptions has been falling from the highs of the past few years. Only 5% of businesses with 10 or more employees reported disruption in September 2023.169 The data clearly shows that employers can no longer say that supply chain disruption is impacting their ability to pay.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 66 The percentage of British businesses reporting supply chain disruptions has been falling steadily. Source: ONS

16.2.1 Brexit has introduced trading frictions between the UK and EU, but it's not clear there has been any permanent change to exports to the EU It is no secret that Brexit put the UK's trade relations into a state of uncertainty. Making firm conclusions about the long-term impact of Brexit is difficult, because the post-Brexit period has also coincided with Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, both of which affected trade in energy and energy-intensive goods. However, in regular ONS trade publications, quarterly trade by goods is divided into EU and non-EU which means we can look at what's happened to these two areas since Brexit. Unfortunately, services trade is not published separately.170 Total trade with the EU fell in the first quarter of 2021, after the Brexit transition period ended. However, it is not clear from the graph of goods trade below that there has been any permanent change to goods imports from the EU, which have grown strongly, implying that British firms overall have not struggled with obtaining supplies from Europe. Exports to the EU have been

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

175

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

176

weak in recent quarters, but so have exports to the Rest of the World, so it's not clear that goods producers can blame Brexit for any poor deals they offer our members.171

Figure 67 UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world (RoW). Source: ONS

A recent report in the Financial Times suggested that small and medium-sized firms are not prepared for changing EU regulations, which would suggest that many employers ought to be paying more attention and should not be making workers pay for unexpected costs they find.172

16.3 Companies' cost of inputs are falling, which means more money available for collective bargaining Input cost inflation fell to minus 2.55% in September 2023 – significantly below the peak level of 24.5% inflation in June 2022 and showing goods manufacturers' inputs actually falling in price compared with a year ago.

A reduction in costs for companies reduces the pressure on a firm's day-to-day operations and can be used by workers as another argument for decent pay rises and against the argument that employers can't afford to give them.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 68 Input Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation has been falling since summer 2022. Source: ONS

The main source of data for companies' input costs is the ONS Producer Price Index (PPI).173 It includes input prices (those paid by goods producers) and output prices (those charged at the factory gates by goods producers) for UK companies.174 Input costs rose sharply in 2022 due to the increase in energy prices, but the rate of inflation has fallen since the summer of 2022 and turned negative (i.e. prices lower than a year earlier) in June 2023 (see Figure 68 ).175 The tables shows annual inflation for selected producer inputs.

Input prices

12-month inflation rate

Fuel

18.0%

Food (Imported)

10.3%

Other Inputs

2.6%

Other Parts/Equipment

0.8%

Food (Domestic)

-1.9%

Metals and Non-Metallic Mineral Products

-3.5%

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

177

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

178

Input prices

12-month inflation rate

Other Produced Material

-5.9%

Chemicals

-7.9%

Crude Oil

-11.1%

In particular, ONS data shows that the cost of inputs overall is being helped down by falling prices of crude oil, metals, domestically-produced food, chemicals and 'other produced material': in other words companies which buy these things are paying less than they did a year ago.176 Other indices also show that input prices are falling. One global index of commodity prices, the S&P GSCI, weights commodity prices across markets across the world, not specifically the prices paid by UK firms. It shows a sharp rise in commodity prices during the first half of 2022, but shows them falling back significantly after that and declining again after a slight rise in September.177 An alternative index, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, gives less weight to energy prices. It also shows a similar pattern of falling costs since Summer 2022. 178 Another input cost that is important to UK firms is shipping. Those costs, as measured by a variety of indices, have also been declining from their peak: n For container shipping, for example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index is the most widely used index for sea freight rates for import from Asia worldwide. It has declined substantially, from over 5,000 in early 2022 to around 1,000.179 180

n For dry bulk shipping, a common index of shipping costs is the Baltic Dry Index, which rose close to $6,000 in 2021 but has fallen to around $1,500.181 Generally it appears that prices have fallen back closer to historic levels for global shipping, which will reduce input costs for companies. In principle, as shipping costs fall back closer to historical norms, consumer prices should also fall as a result.182 But as Unite demonstrated in its profiteering report, companies may choose to take advantage of heightened prices to boost profits. A huge number of Unite members across differing sectors will be

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

impacted by this drop in shipping costs which can help our bargaining demands.

16.4 The UK is in the process of joining the CPTPP trade agreement, which could threaten jobs and public services The UK is in the process of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), one of the world’s largest free trade agreements. Joining the CPTPP could threaten workers' rights, regulatory standards, public services and democratic decision-making and puts millions of jobs at risk.183 Trade is therefore a collective bargaining issue that workers need to influence where they have power: in the workplace.

CPTPP negotiations concluded in March 2023 and the UK signed an accession agreement in July184 followed by a vote to ratify the agreement in Parliament in the autumn.185 The CPTPP has 11 members: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam.186 The UK has existing agreements with most of these countries, but CPTPP goes further in many areas.187 Six other countries – Costa Rica, Ecuador, Uruguay, China, Taiwan and Ukraine – have applied to join the agreement.188

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

One of the key features of the agreement is "almost complete

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

179

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

180

liberalisation of tariffs among the participants." In other words, tariffs are almost completely eliminated in most areas, with only certain specialized goods receiving tariff protection (for example, rice in Japan and dairy in Canada). Some items receive preferential tariffs if a certain percentage of the content comes from counties who signed the CPTPP. One of the most controversial provisions of the agreement is the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) process, which threatens democracy by handing powers to investors and limiting policy options. Under ISDS, investors can sue member governments for regulations and actions that threaten their profits.189 In previous cases this system has been used to prevent increases in the minimum wage and attempts to renationalise public services.190 Critics also believe the CPTPP will expose public services to further privatisation and restrict the criteria that authorities can use in procurement processes.191 The CPTPP is expected to raise UK GDP by just 0.08% according to the Government's own estimates.192 According to the Financial Times: “the economic gains for Britain are minimal, according to the government’s own projections, and will do little to offset the EU trade losses incurred as a result of Brexit.”193 Almost all UK exports will become eligible for tariff-free trade with CPTPP members. Twenty-one sectors are expected to see a long-run expansion due to accession to CPTPP, with largest estimated increases in the motor vehicles and beverages sectors.194 Financial and professional services are expected to benefit.

In addition, there is a risk of job losses in some sectors due to increased competition with cheap imported goods from other CPTPP member countries. There is a risk of trade dumping in UK manufacturing, especially cheap steel from China routed through Vietnam.195 The CPTPP has some minimal provisions to protect labour rights, but there is no real enforcement mechanism and the UK already meets the criteria on paper.

In theory, the CPTPP requires members to have a minimum wage, allow the freedom of association, protect the marine environment and enforce their own laws in such areas. In reality though there is no real enforcement mechanism – only union power and strong collective bargaining agreements can secure these things.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

16.5 The value of the British pound fell compared to the U.S. dollar, which is good for companies that export The value of the British pound fell against the dollar and, to a lesser degree, the euro during the first three quarters of 2022 – meaning the amount of dollars/euros a pound could buy fell. This made exports cheaper but imports more expensive. The decline was particularly marked in the weeks after the Truss-Kwarteng government’s ‘mini-Budget’. Since then, sterling has recovered some of these losses against the dollar. These factors need to be considered in our members' pay claims, especially where we know that the employer sells a lot of their output to other countries.

Forecasting exchange rates is notoriously inaccurate but the latest (August) National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecasts are for the pound to be largely unchanged against the dollar over the coming few years, while depreciating slightly against the euro from around €1.15 to around €1.13.196

Figure 69 The cost of one pound in dollars and euros (the two dominant currencies for global trade) fell in 2022, making exports cheaper and imports more expensive, but has recovered some of its dollar losses during 2023. Source: Capital IQ Pro I5

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

The value of the British pound compared to other currencies can have important effects on the economy. A weaker pound (one that National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

181

What global economic factors influence the ability to pay?

Facts and Figures

182

is worth less compared to other currencies such as the U.S. dollar) is good for companies which export abroad, but bad for businesses which import more than they export. A weak pound also benefits British firms which get much of their earnings overseas in foreign currencies. On the downside, around a fifth of household consumption is imported, so a weaker pound also raises the prices workers pay in the shops.

16.5.1 The price of British exports relative to imports is at the highest level in years The war in Ukraine led to a rise in the cost of imports to the UK, which was followed by a rise in the price of British exports to a lesser degree.

However, this effect has unwound and the price of British exports relative to imports is at the highest level in years. This is good news for firms who import and export: overall the last year has seen their costs fall more than sales prices have fallen, which can boost profits and therefore their ability to pay our members decent wages.197

Figure 70 The negative 'terms-of-trade shock of 2022 has more than unwound. Source: ONS: CDIDs YBFW and YBFZ

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

184

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION SEVENTEEN

WORKPLACE SAFETY 17.

Is the workplace getting safer?

17.1

Work-related ill health is rising, with 722,000 new cases in 2021/22 187

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

187

Is the workplace getting safer?

Facts and Figures

185

Is the workplace getting safer?

Facts and Figures

186

The main cause of injury and illness in the workplace is failures by management in health and safety, not in the failings of workers. We need full recognition of trade union safety reps and their full involvement with safety management systems.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

17. Is the workplace getting safer?

According to the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), 1.8 million people suffered from a new or long-standing illness which they believed was caused or made worse by work in 2021/22, making up 5.4% of the workforce.198 Of those, 722,000 workers were suffering a new case of work-related ill health.199 Strong collective agreements and fully empowered health and safety reps are the most effective means of removing work-related illness from our workplaces. Unite’s Collective Agreements Database can be used by reps to see examples of model language and best practice in other workplaces.

Is the workplace getting safer?

17.1 Work-related ill health is rising, with 722,000 new cases in 2021/22

Figure 71 1.8 million people suffered from a new or long-standing illness which they believed was caused or made worse by work in 2021/22.

Source: HSE, data from Labour Force Survey200

Other notable findings from the HSE include:

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

187

Facts and Figures

Is the workplace getting safer?

n 914,000 workers were suffering work-related stress, depression, or anxiety, making mental health the biggest cause of ill health.201 Rates of stress, depression, and anxiety are rising.

The 2021/22 rate of 2,750 cases per 100,000 workers (2.7%) was higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.202 Work is a major cause of stress. 23% of UK adults say that work causes them stress.203

188

n 477,000 workers were suffering from a work-related musculoskeletal disorder.204 The current rate is similar to preCOVID-19 levels.205 n 123,000 workers were suffering from a COVID-19 infection which they believed they may have been exposed to at work.206 The rate of work-related ill health has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly driven by worsening mental health.207 Workers are overwhelmingly the ones bearing the costs. The total costs of workplace self-reported injuries and ill health in 2019/20 was £18.8 billion. Ill health caused 60% of total costs, and injury 40% of total costs. Over three-fifths of this cost in borne by the individual worker (£11.5 billion) whereas the rest is nearly evenly split between the government (£3.8 billion) and the employer (£3.5 billion).208 This further highlights the importantce of having strong collective agreements that enshrine an employer's duty to fully compensate workers who suffer work-related injuries or ill-health.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

190

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION EIGHTEEN

NEW ATTACKS ON TRADE UNIONS 18.

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

193

18.1

Threat of fresh GH London strikes in defence of a victimised rep forces last-minute talks with employer

193

18.2

The Tory anti-strikes bill is a major attack on organised workers in key sectors 194

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

Facts and Figures

191

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

Facts and Figures

192

Rather than tackling the cost of living crisis, the government is attacking trade unions. This attempt to shut down industrial action will be resisted.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

18. Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

18.1 Threat of fresh GH London strikes in defence of a victimised rep forces last-minute talks with employer GH London workers' threat of further strike action to defend their rep from victimisation has forced the employer back to the negotiating table for last-minute talks.

Industrial action came as a result of GH London continually targeting and threatening a Unite rep with disciplinary action; the use of CCTV and audio recording of workers in break rooms without agreement; the company’s failure to follow its own disciplinary and grievance process; the disproportionate use of discipline against ethnic minority employees; and its failure to pay wages in full and on time.

The workers, who undertake the ground handling functions at Luton Airport for the airline Wizz, had already staged two days of strike action because of a complete breakdown in industrial relations at the company. However, following a last-minute offer of talks by GH London, Unite called off further industrial action as an act of good faith.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

Facts and Figures

193

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

Facts and Figures

Figure 72 GH London workers on strike earlier this year

The threatened action was coordinated between GH London, APCOA and Sasse Limited workers and is currently suspended to allow a vote on a new offer from the company. Unite has made it clear that fresh strikes will be called if the offer is unsatisfactory and our rep is not reinstated.

Organised workplaces depend on reps and shop stewards being able to perform their role effectively without interference from the bosses. Victimisation of trade union reps is a tactic by bad employers – they want to break workers’ organisation through intimidation. An attack on a rep is therefore an attack on the whole workforce and the union. Unite will always defend our representatives and victimisation will be resisted with all the weapons at our disposal.

18.2 The Tory anti-strikes bill is a major attack on organised workers in key sectors The new Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Act was passed in July.209 It is a clear attempt to undermine workers’ collective power in key sectors. The bill is a violation of the right to strike and is undemocratic and unworkable in practice.210 Withdrawing our labour is the most powerful weapon workers have to bring employers to the negotiating table and win our demands, and the Government knows this.

194

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

The sectors covered by the Act are:

n Education; n Fire and rescue; n Transport; n Border security; and n Nuclear decommissioning and radioactive waste management services.211

Figure 73 Protest against the second reading of the Minimum Service Bill before it became law

The Act gives Ministers the power to dictate service levels to undermine strikes in these sectors. Employers will issue work notices specifying who must cross the picket line.212 The anti-strikes bill means strikers could be sacked for breaching a work notice, and unions will lose protections against law suits from employers. It is not clear yet how the Act will be enforced, and the Scottish Government has indicated that it will not issue or enforce work notices.213

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

n Health;

The Act will mean train operators will have to have at least 40% of their normal timetable in operation. Ambulance workers will also be restricted.214 On top of restricting workers' right to strike, the National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

195

Facts and Figures

Are there any new attacks on trade unions?

courts can now fine the biggest unions found undertaking unlawful strike action up to £1 million, up from £250,000.215

196

Ministers are hoping this legislation can be put into effect before Christmas, with Rishi Sunak making clear that they "are doing everything in our power to stop unions derailing Christmas for millions of people."- with Scottish ministers coming out in opposition for implementing the Act.216217 Recent ambulance and hospital strikes demonstrate that workers will not allow our industrial power to be legislated away.218 Unite will robustly defend the right to strike in all our sectors.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

198

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION NINETEEN

EMPLOYER TACTICS What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

201

Information disclosure is going to become a bigger issue at the bargaining table

201

19.1.1 Example: Compensation Data in the Finance Sector

202

19.

19.1

19.2

irst GlasgowEmployers continue to underestimate the seriousness of the cost of living crisis by using inaccurate inflation forecasts 203

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

Facts and Figures

199

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

200

Facts and Figures

Too often pay levels are obscure, designed to confuse and weaken us.

We can take the initiative to change this by collecting information on pay ourselves, to use next time management try to pull the wool over our eyes.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

19. What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

19.1 Information disclosure is going to become a bigger issue at the bargaining table To help deliver on the General Secretary’s commitment to improve support for collective bargaining it is vital that we have all our relevant industrial data to hand. From our collective agreements, latest pay rises and base rates of pay, to a whole variety of other terms and conditions, holding this information will allow us to provide real analysis to support negotiators.

To this end, over the last 6 months we have been collecting data from pilot areas. This exercise has already thrown up many questions, one of which is the potential importance of information disclosure. We already have several examples of sectors where pay structures are anything but transparent.

We have identified cases where employers have intentionally created complex pay scales that are not directly linked to occupations. This of course gives bosses the opportunity to engage in skulduggery. But it also makes it difficult for us to work out the real impact of proposed settlements on our members and puts another obstacle in the way of working towards common bargaining strategies across sectors. See the example in the next section to see just how complex some pay structures can be.

That is why we must not forget the potential of information disclosure and, more importantly, the possibility for it to become a core collective bargaining issue. As you know, trade unions have a right to “disclosure of information” under the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

Facts and Figures

201

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

202

Facts and Figures The ACAS Code states the following: “The information to be disclosed is that without which a trade union representative would be impeded to a material extent in bargaining and which it would be in accordance with good industrial relations practice to disclose for the purpose of collective bargaining.”219 So we have a solid base from which to proceed and are always able to table specific demands for disclosure at any round of collective bargaining. The real point here is we won’t always need to fall back on the law to get transparency if we start to see the issue as something to organise around.

19.1.1 Example: Compensation Data in the Finance Sector Unite has been collecting data from across the finance sector, with the aims being to: n Develop a centralised repository of the pay data of our members n Help us with benchmarking pay and conditions n Help support coordinated pay claims for those branches that want to pursue them We have interviewed Reps from major banks and insurance firms asking them questions on: bargaining units; pay anniversaries; their latest settlement; comparator roles and any other issues they think might be relevant. We have also asked for copies of their pay scales and rates of pay.

Initial analysis has started with the 'Big Four' banks and three large insurance companies. We have found that their data is often quite different. All were able to give us minimum pay levels, but not necessarily upper pay bands. Some were able to supply mid-points for their different pay levels, but others gave us the far more interesting pay medians. One bank was able to give us headcount by pay point.

When trying to look at comparator roles, for example how much does a branch manager get paid, it often wasn't possible. Some institutions organise their pay by role, but others by job family, or in some cases just by levels (so nothing about role or job family).

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Figure 74 The availability and consistency of pay scale data appears arbitrary. Selected pay scale data from three major insurance companies.

Source Unite data collection.

Now that we understand what data we have and its complexity, it will allow us to ask better questions. If one bank can give us a certain type of data, why can't they all? If one Rep has access to information that allows them to make a more robust claim, why can't they all?

19.2 irst GlasgowEmployers continue to underestimate the seriousness of the cost of living crisis by using inaccurate inflation forecasts One tactic that employers use in negotiations with Unite reps is referring to forecasts which show that inflation is expected to drop over the coming months and years. This, they argue, shows that workers should accept smaller pay increases.

However, forecasts have been proven to repeatedly underestimate the scale of inflation. Reps should be ready to push back against the use of such forecasts, insisting that pay deals meet the reality of rising inflation and the cost of living crisis, both in the here and now and the future.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

Facts and Figures

203

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

204

Facts and Figures In the last year, even bodies such as the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have admitted their inflation forecasting models are flawed. Meanwhile, the Treasury's collection of independent forecasts show that they have vastly underestimated the reality of inflation.220 The below chart shows the Treasury's collection of independent forecasts for RPI inflation in Q4 2022, compared to the actual inflation rate in Q4 2022 and at the time of the forecast.

Throughout most of 2021 and 2022, the forecasts significantly underestimated inflation. Even in April 2022, when inflation had reached 11%, forecasters believed that by the end of the year it would be 9%. That’s a 35% error, just 6 months away from the point they were forecasting.

Figure 75 The Treasury’s collection of independent forecasts for RPI inflation in Q4 2022, which consistently underestimated the actual rate of inflation

The Bank of England and the OBR have blamed flaws in their models on shocks to the economy, such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine - however such models were still underestimating inflation after COVID-19 had struck, and energy prices had already shot up before the war in Ukraine began.221 If bodies like the Bank of England, the OBR and the Treasury are using flawed models which repeatedly understate inflation, then any inflation forecasts wheeled out by employers should be treated with extreme scepticism. The cost-of-living crisis is a real crisis affecting Unite members, while inflation forecasts are just

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

that - forecasts. Ensuring pay deals keep up with prices in the here and now must be the priority when it comes to collective bargaining.

Figure 76 The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who in 2022 asked workers not to demand pay rises

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

What tactics and arguments are employers using in negotiations?

Facts and Figures

205

206

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

BITESIZED BARGAINING 20.

20.1

Bitesized Bargaining: Work Voice Pay's tools for bargaining to improve sick pay

209

Work Voice Pay has tools to gain or improve sick pay rights in your workplace to ensure workers get more than the insufficient legal minimum

209

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Bitesized Bargaining

SECTION TWENTY

207

Bitesized Bargaining: Addressing Extreme Temperatures

Facts and Figures

208

Along with coordinating our pay bargaining, researching key workplace issues, building strike-ready workplaces and developing ‘leverage’ campaigning, an essential part of Work Voice Pay is providing support and tools to help Unite reps with your work.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

20.1 Work Voice Pay has tools to gain or improve sick pay rights in your workplace to ensure workers get more than the insufficient legal minimum Sick pay is a core collective bargaining issue. Work is a major cause of ill health: according to the Health and Safety Executive, 1.8 million people suffered from a new or long-standing illness last year which they believed was caused or made worse by work, equivalent to 5.4% of the workforce.222 Despite the prevalence of work-related ill health, many employers only pay Statutory Sick Pay (SSP), the legally required minimum that they have to pay to workers if they're too ill to work. SSP only amounts to £109.40 per week, there are rules on which workers are eligible, and it's only payable for up to 28 weeks.223 When a worker suffers injury or ill-health in the workplace, employers should properly compensate those workers for loss of earnings. Collective bargaining can ensure that workers get a fair deal, by agreeing a company sick pay scheme which goes beyond the minimal amount guaranteed under SSP.

Bitesized Bargaining

20. Bitesized Bargaining: Work Voice Pay's tools for bargaining to improve sick pay

To support this, Work Voice Pay has developed tools to help Unite reps and shop stewards win better sick pay deals. The Pay Claim Generator allows you to enter the introduction of sick pay scheme as an item in your pay claim, as well as giving you an option to include enhancements to an existing sick pay scheme as an item in a pay claim.

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

209

Bitesized Bargaining: Addressing Extreme Temperatures

Facts and Figures

210

If you select this option, the Pay Claim Generator creates model language which you can use as part of pay talks to secure a better deal:

Work Voice Pay's Collective Agreements Database also allows you to search other collective agreements for sick pay clauses. This can give you a sense of what sick pay agreements other workers have bargained for, and allow you to re-use text included in other agreements. You can also upload your own collective agreements for others to learn from:

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

If you navigate to a particular collective agreement, it will show you the language included in the agreement, demonstrating that far better sick pay than the legal minimum can be achieved through collective bargaining.

We cannot rely on the legal system to set minimum standards. Unite Reps and Shop Stewards know the realities of work-related illnesses better than anyone. By sharing knowledge and best practice and making sick pay a core bargaining issue, we can raise standards collectively and force employers to properly support our members when they are ill.

Bitesized Bargaining

Facts and Figures

n To access the Pay Claim Generator and Collective Agreements Database, plus other Work Voice Pay tools, go to: https://www.unitetheunion.org/work-voice-pay

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

211

212

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

SECTION TWENTY-ONE

INDUSTRIAL COMMITTEES 21.

21.1

Are there any upcoming industrial committee meetings?

215

Unite's Finance Combine will next meet on 12 December 215

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Are there any industrial committees meeting this month?

Facts and Figures

213

Are there any industrial committees meeting this month?

Facts and Figures

214

Employers operate in coordinated groups and across workplaces. We need to do the same. Combines can bring all our reps together by industry or sector to create collective bargaining at the level of whole industries or sectors.

Sharon Graham, Unite General Secretary

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

21. Are there any upcoming industrial committee meetings?

21.1 Unite's Finance Combine will next meet on 12 December Unite's industrial Combines are leading the way in setting and raising standards across our sectors. Whether it be in Finance, Passenger Transport, or Hospitality, our combines have helped bring together reps and shop stewards to build common positions and coordinate action.

Our Finance Sector Combine has been working hard over the last year to coordinate pay claims and negotiations in Banking and Insurance. This kind of coordination is vital; our members are working for some of the richest companies in the world and yet still attempt to drive down pay and conditions at any opportunity.

Finance workers need every possible weapon to fight back against the rigged pay system used by banking and insurance bosses and coordination is one of the most powerful that our union has.

The Finance Combine will next meet on 12 December (via Zoom): n Insurance/Banking together, Tuesday 12 December 10am – 1pm n Registration details will be available soon.

Are there any industrial committees meeting this month?

Facts and Figures

n If you have any questions, please contact Lead Organiser, Michelle Smith: michelle.smith@unitetheunion.org

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

215

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Facts and Figures

216

22. Appendix 1: List of 2023 pay deals above 10% Employer

Date

% Increase

Menzies Aviation (Luton Airport)*

01/02/2023 28.5

NSL (London Borough of Islington)

01/04/2023 25.5

NSL (Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea)

01/07/2023 21.1

ABM (Gatwick Airport)*

01/01/2023 20.8

CNC Speedwell

01/04/2023 20

DHL (Sainsbury's) Rugby

15/01/2023 19.9

NSL (Camden parking enforce01/04/2023 18.1 ment) G4S HMP Five Wells Prison

01/01/2023 18

National Express TNC (Drivers) 01/01/2023 16.2 West Midlands* Wilson James (Gatwick Airport)*

01/04/2023 16

Stagecoach Portsmouth*

01/01/2023 15.3

Stagecoach South (Andover) Drivers

30/04/2023 15.2

Stagecoach South (Andover) Engineering

30/04/2023 15.2

B&M Distribution (Lesmahagow)

01/01/2023 15

First Manchester (Drivers)*

03/09/2023 14.8

Mitie Care & Custody (Gatwick) Overseas Escort Staff

01/03/2023 14.7

Essar Oil UK (Stanlow Refinery)*

01/01/2023 14.4

National Express TNC (Engineers) West Midlands*

01/01/2023 14.3

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Date

% Increase

Wightlink

01/01/2023 14.3

East Coast Buses*

01/04/2023 14.2

Lothian Country*

01/04/2023 14.2

BMW (Mini plant Oxford)*

01/01/2023 14

GXO (City Plumbing) Warrington*

01/01/2023 14

Swindon's Bus Company*

01/10/2023 13.94

First Hydro*

01/04/2023 13.8

Hoyer Petrolog (BP Oil Drivers 01/01/2023 13.8 - Greenfleet contract)* Stagecoach East Scotland Strathtay & Perth*

01/01/2023 13.7

International Automotive Components (IAC) Solihull*

01/04/2023 13.5

Stagecoach South Lancashire (Preston & Chorley Depots)*

01/05/2023 13.5

Brown Brothers Manufacturing*

01/04/2023 13.2

N Brown Logistics

01/04/2023 13.1

Continental Landscapes (Wel01/04/2023 13.04 wyn & Hatfield Council)* Cadent Gas (Field Force)

01/07/2023 12.84

Cadent Gas (Staff)

01/07/2023 12.84

B&M Distribution (Warehouse) Speke Vault/ Qube/ Knowsley/ Runcorn/ Middlewich

01/04/2023 12.83

Suez (Doncaster Metropolitan 01/04/2023 12.6 Borough Council)* Stagecoach East Scotland Rennies Coaches*

01/06/2023 12.1

Bluestar

01/01/2023 12

Edrington Distillers*

01/04/2023 12

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Employer

217

Facts and Figures Employer

Date

% Increase

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Primark (England/ Wales/ Scot01/04/2023 12 land) Arriva Northumbria*

01/01/2023 11.85

Go Ahead South West*

01/04/2023 11.8

G4S (PSNI)

01/03/2023 11.6

Mitie (Sellafield)*

01/05/2023 11.6

Heathrow Airport (Security staff)*

01/10/2023 11.5

DHL Inside Track

01/04/2023 11.1

Menzies Aviation (Glasgow Airport)*

01/01/2023 11

Nottingham Community Trans01/04/2023 11 port (CT4N) St Mungo's*

01/04/2023 10.74

Electricity North West*

01/08/2023 10.7

Stagecoach East Midlands (Mansfield/Worksop)

01/03/2023 10.7

Birmingham Airport*

01/04/2023 10.5

DHL (Sainsbury's) Dartford Drivers*

01/04/2023 10.5

EDF Energy (Hinkley Point C Project)*

04/01/2023 10.5

Evtec Automotive

01/04/2023 10.5

Fuels Transport & Logistics (Morrisons)*

01/04/2023 10.5

Menzies Aviation (Heathrow) 01/01/2023 10.5 Ground handling* Kronospan*

01/01/2023 10.4

Findel Education

01/04/2023 10.3

Vaultex*

01/04/2023 10.2

14forty (Compass Group) Cap01/04/2023 10.1 ita contract Birmingham Airport Air Traffic Ltd (BAATL) Air Traffic 01/04/2023 10.1 Operations

218

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Date

% Increase

Co-operative Group (Customer Team Members/Post Office Counter Assistants)

01/04/2023 10.1

Futamura*

01/01/2023 10.1

Huhtamaki Fiber Packaging*

01/01/2023 10.1

Huhtamaki Foodservice Delta*

01/01/2023 10.1

McPherson Ltd (Aberlour)*

01/01/2023 10.1

Suez (South Gloucestershire Council)*

01/01/2023 10.1

Swiss Post Solutions (SPS) - BT 01/04/2023 10.1 Contract Veolia (Harlow)

01/04/2023 10.1

Babcock International Marine & Technology (Rosyth) Indus- 01/04/2023 10 trial* Biffa (Maidstone)*

01/03/2023 10

Biffa (Portsmouth)*

01/04/2023 10

Bilfinger*

01/01/2023 10

BMW (Rolls Royce Motor Cars)*

01/01/2023 10

Brighton & Hove Bus & Coach 01/07/2023 10 Company* Co-operative Group (Team Leaders/Post Office Supervisors)

01/04/2023 10

Co-operative Retail Logistics National Transport Agree01/02/2023 10 ment* DHL Tradeteam (Salfords)*

01/04/2023 10

Dnata Catering (Heathrow)*

01/04/2023 10

Edinburgh Trams (Transport for Edinburgh)*

01/04/2023 10

Financial Times (Financial

01/01/2023 10

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Employer

219

Facts and Figures Employer

Date

% Increase

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Times Group)

220

G4S (Northern Ireland Courts & Tribunals Service)

01/05/2023 10

Greater Manchester Accessible Transport (GMAT)*

01/04/2023 10

Greencore (Worksop)*

01/04/2023 10

Greggs (Retail)

01/01/2023 10

GXO Logistics (Co-op contract)Avonmouth (Drivers)*

01/02/2023 10

Hoyer Petrolog (BP Oil Drivers 01/01/2023 10 - Logistics contract)* JCB

01/01/2023 10

Joseph Walkers Shortbread

01/04/2023 10

Kaefer (Coulport, Faslane & Rosyth)*

01/01/2023 10

Kingspan Water & Energy (Portadown)*

01/01/2023 10

Magellan Aerospace*

01/01/2023 10

Methodist Homes (MHA)

01/04/2023 10

Metrobus Crawley*

01/07/2023 10

Mire Services (Sellafield)*

01/04/2023 10

Pirelli Tyres*

01/02/2023 10

Poundstretcher

01/04/2023 10

Sainsbury's (Basingstoke) Warehouse*

01/04/2023 10

Sainsbury's Distribution (Waltham Abbey)

05/03/2023 10

Savencia Fromage & Dairy

01/01/2023 10

Southern Vectis

01/06/2023 10

Stagecoach Aldershot*

01/05/2023 10

Stagecoach Worthing*

01/04/2023 10

Stork Technical Services*

01/01/2023 10

Swissport*

01/01/2023 10

UK Power Networks (UKPN) -

01/04/2023 10

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Facts and Figures

Date

% Increase

Staff Group* Whirlpool (Peterborough)*

01/01/2023 10

Wincanton (Asda) Doncaster

01/04/2023 10

Windermere Lake Cruises

01/02/2023 10

All pay deals taken from latest LRD data. * = Negotiated by Unite the Union Table 3: List of 2023 pay deals above 10%. Source: Payline, September 2023

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

Appendix: List of 2023 Pay Deals Above 10%

Employer

221

Endnotes 1https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/unite-secures-east-mid-

lands-trent-barton-bus-engineers-pay-rise-of-between-20-and-26 2https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/november/unite-the-unionsecures-pay-deal-worth-11-for-severfield-workers 3https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/strikes-by-hull-and-eastriding-citizens-advice-workers-end-in-pay-victory 4https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/unite-secures-petrofacithaca-win-over-working-rota and https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/unite-secures-petrofac-ithaca-win-over-working-rota 5https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/unite-secures-petrofacithaca-win-over-working-rota 6https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/november/unite-signs-nationalrecognition-agreement-with-housing-and-social-care-provider-mears 7https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/july/unite-driving-up-wages-forbus-workers-on-scottish-east-coast and https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/february/long-running-abellio-london-bus-dispute-ends-as-workers-receivemajor-pay-boost 8https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/vacanciesbyindustryvacs02

Note that these sectors also include health, education and public admin workers in the private sector.

9https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/nhs-vacancies-sur-

vey/april-2015---june-2023-experimental-statistics (Tab 4 - ‘Total 2018 onwards’) 10https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/annualsurveyofhoursandearningstimeseriesofselectedestimates, Table 9; adjusted for inflation using RPI all items index https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/chaw/mm23 11Unite analysis of ONS data 12Unite analysis of ONS, OBR and Treasury data

222

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

13https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/11/how-much-would-a-public-sector-pay-

rise-really-cost-the-uk-government 14Unite analysis of OECD data 15https://www.wealthandpolicy.com/wp/WealthTaxFinalReport_ExecSummary.pdf p. 6 16https://news.sky.com/story/budget-2023-corporation-tax-set-to-rise-from-19-to-25-in-april-

12827274 17https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates 18https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-announces-major-increase-to-nationalliving-wage#:~:text=Based%20on%20the%20Low%20Pay,over%20%C2%A31%2C000%20next%20year.

19https://www.livingwage.org.uk/what-real-living-wage 20Table 1a - https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/jobspaidbelowminimumwagebycategory/current/jobsbelownmw2022combined.xls 21https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/almost-half-self-employed-are-poverty-pay 22https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/may/11/half-of-uk-gig-economyworkers-earn-below-minimum-wage-study-reveals 23https://www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/business-and-economy/london-livingwage 24https://www.unitetheunion.org/what-we-do/unite-investigates/unplugging-energy-profiteers-the-case-for-public-ownership/unite-investigates-renationalising-energy-costs-and-savings-full-report 25https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5442/profiteering-across-the-economy-march2023.pdf 26https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/march/food-prices-the-british-public-are-hostages-to-greedflation/ National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

223

27https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/rpi-inflation-reform-what-it-means-for-pensions-stu-

dent-loans-rail-fares-and-more-aPSks1x3edLp 28https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/what-the-budget-means-for-pints-cigarettes-andsugary-drinks-aQt1k4I4V1L3 29https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-differences-between-the-cpi-and-rpi/ 30https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/consumerpriceinflationincludesall3indicescpihcpiandrpiqmi 31https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57764601 32https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/652fa548697260000dccfa12/Forecomp_ October.pdf Table 5, page 8 33https://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/cost-debt-low-income-households-cost-living-crisis#:~:text=With%202.3%220million%20families%20reporting,rising%20cost%20of%20consumer%20credit.

34https://www.statista.com/statistics/286416/united-kingdom-uk-outstanding-balance-valueon-credit-cards/ 35https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/rental-price-tracker/ 36https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/rental-price-tracker/, p. 1.

37https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/rental-price-tracker/ 38https://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/landlords/rising-interest-rates-see-90-of-landlords-

increasing-rent.html 39https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/housing 40https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/may/09/uk-households-missed-rent-mortgage-payment-which-loans-credit-cards 41https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/privaterentalaffordabilityengland/previousReleases 42https://www.sbhg.co.uk/changes-to-your-rent/ 43https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/most-social-landlords-planning-full-7-rent-rise-survey-shows-80323 44https://england.shelter.org.uk/support_us/campaigns/social_housing_deficit 45https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/06/childcare-puzzle-which-countries-in-europehave-the-highest-and-lowest-childcare-costs 46https://www.-

224

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

familyandchildcaretrust.org/sites/default/files/Resource%20Library/Childcare%20Survey%202023_ Coram%20Family%20and%20Childcare.pdf p.5, Table 1 47https://pregnantthenscrewed.com/press-release-nearly-a-fifth-of-parents-have-had-toleave-their-jobs-because-of-the-cost-of-childcare/ 48https://pregnantthenscrewed.com/press-release-nearly-a-fifth-of-parents-have-had-toleave-their-jobs-because-of-the-cost-of-childcare/ 49https://www.familyandchildcaretrust.org/sites/default/files/Resource%20Library/Childcare%20Survey%202023_ Coram%20Family%20and%20Childcare.pdf p.6 50https://www.familyandchildcaretrust.org/sites/default/files/Resource%20Library/Childcare%20Survey%202023_ Coram%20Family%20and%20Childcare.pdf p.32, Chart 24 51https://www.familyandchildcaretrust.org/sites/default/files/Resource%20Library/Childcare%20Survey%202023_ Coram%20Family%20and%20Childcare.pdf p.33, Table 25 52https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/09/now-even-the-bank-of-englandadmits-greedflation-is-a-thing 53https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/low-middle-income-households-facing-seven-yearsfalling-living-standards?type=uk-economic-outlook 54https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull53.pdf, p3.

55https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p11.

56https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p11.

57https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p 12.

58https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p 15-16.

59https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p. 19.

60https://www.unitetheunion.org/campaigns/unite-for-a-workers-economy-campaign/latestcampaign-news/take-the-power-back-

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

225

#:~:text=The%20Unite%20profiteering%20report%20revealed,%C2%A36.3%20billion%20in%202021 61https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p. 12-13.

62https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p. 15.

63https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5452/unite-investigates-profiteering-across-the-economy-its-systemic-march-2023.pdf, p 14.

64ASHE 2023 ONS 65ASHE 2023 ONS 66https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/5442/profiteering-across-the-economy-march-

2023.pdf 67ASHE 2023 ONS 68https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2023/01/Living-Standards-Outlook-

2023.pdf, Figure 33, p 70.

69Note: this is adjusted for inflation by the ONS using CPIH rather than RPI.

There would be an even greater fall in real disposable household incomes if RPI is used.

70www.on-

s.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2022 71https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2023/#chapter-2 72https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/household-debt-tops-p2-trillion-for-thefirst-time-as-new-data-s.html 73https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/-

226

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=1990&TD=31&TM=Dec&TTY=2023&FNY=&CSVF=TT&html.x=142&html.y=40&C=NZU&C=O3D&C=122&Filter=N, (Time series LPMVVUZ) 74https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/distributionofindividualtotalwealthbycharacteristicingreatbritain/april2018tomarch2020 75https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headlinereport/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headline-report 76https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03668/SN03668.pdf, p. 3 77https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headlinereport/english-housing-survey-2021-to-2022-headline-report

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

227

78https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/workplacepensions/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearningspensiontables/2021provisionaland2020finalresults#participationtrends, Section 3 79https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/pensionwealthingreatbritain/april2018tomarch2020 80https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplein-

228

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

work/workplacepensions/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearningspensiontables/2021provisionaland2020finalresults#participationtrends, Section 3 81https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/pensionwealthingreatbritain/april2018tomarch2020, Figure 1 82https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bul-

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

229

letins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/october2023#paydistribution 83https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/lowandhighpayuk/2023 84https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/uksecondestimateofgdpdatatables/quarter3julytosept2023firstestimate/firstquarterlyestimateofgdpdatatables.xlsx tab D, tab D. 85https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/uksecondes-

230

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

timateofgdpdatatables/quarter3julytosept2023firstestimate/firstquarterlyestimateofgdpdatatables.xlsx tab D, tab D. 86https://www.theactuary.com/2022/12/13/private-sector-defined-benefit-pensions-continue-decline 87https://www.theactuary.com/2022/12/13/private-sector-defined-benefit-pensions-continue-decline 88https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN00290/SN00290.pdf p. 13 89https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/apr/15/uk-pensions-how-much-retire-cost-ofliving-inflation-income and https://www.retirementlivingstandards.org.uk/details 90https://www.retirementlivingstandards.org.uk/ 91https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2023/01/13/pension-pot-of-645k-needed-for-comfortable-retirement-lifestyle/ 92https://www.retirementlivingstandards.org.uk/ 93https://www.unitetheunion.org/why-join/membership-types/retired-members-retiredfrom-work-but-not-the-fight/68-is-too-late-dont-raise-the-state-pension-age-unite 94https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jan/30/ethnic-minority-pensioners-are-24worse-off-than-others-of-their-age 95https://ffnews.com/newsarticle/over-a-quarter-of-large-businesses-report-increase-inemployees-opting-out-of-pension-scheme-due-to-cost-of-living-crisis/ 96Calculations based on PLSA standards and data here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/pensionwealthingreatbritain/april2018tomarch2020#buildingpension-wealth-over-a-lifetime, Section 4.

97https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ethnicity-pay-reporting-guidance-foremployers/introduction-and-overview

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

231

98https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/ethnicitypaygapsingreatbritain/2019#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20median%20hourly,in%202014%2C%20at%208.4%25 99https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/09/13/measuring-gdp-revisions-are-fact-of-statistical-life/ 100https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2 101https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/preparing-the-pitch/ 102https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm 103https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR-EFO-March-2023_Web_Accessible.pdf, p 40.

104https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JC760-NIESR-Outlook-Autumn-

2023-UK-v10.pdf, p. 6.

105https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/652fa548697260000dccfa12/Forecomp_ October.pdf, p. 3.

106https://www.gfk.com/press/Consumer-Confidence-falls-nine-points-in-October 107https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/consumer-tracker.html 108https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2023/lloyds-bank-2023/october-2023-business-barometer.html 109https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/-

232

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/gdpmonthlyestimateuktimeseriesdataset/current/mgdp.xlsx 110Capital IQ Pro 111https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/178e6643-6ae6-47b9-82be-e1fc565ededb 112https://www.ft.com/content/cf295f39-4be8-4ecb-a8f1-963c94d9b1c2 and Stratum 113https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66721516 114https://www.ft.com/content/cf295f39-4be8-4ecb-a8f1-963c94d9b1c2 and

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66721516 115https://www.ft.com/content/cf295f39-4be8-4ecb-a8f1-963c94d9b1c2 116https://www.ft.com/content/39b57820-1eba-45f6-8bb5-c750a8acbd6a 117Stratum 118https://www.ft.com/content/39b57820-1eba-45f6-8bb5-c750a8acbd6a 119https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/offshore-odfjell-

drillers-balloted-on-strike-action 120https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/chivas-brothers-acrossscotland-strike-ballot-to-hit-festive-season-supplies 121https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/october/oxfam-workers-poisedto-strike-for-first-time-over-poverty-pay-hypocrisy 122https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67224476 and https://www.investopedia.com/uaw-announces-its-deal-with-gm-bringing-an-end-to-the-stand-up-strike8387491 and https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uaw-leaders-pushahead-with-ford-contract-gm-talks-drag-2023-10-29/ 1237% of Unite members work for employers ultimately owned in an unknown

country. If we assume that they are distributed as the other 93% – and in reality this is likely to overestimate UK ownership – it remains the case that less than half of Unite members are employed by companies owned in the UK. 124https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/november2023 125https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66778178 126https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tim-gurner-property-developeraustralia-b2411998.html National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

233

127https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2023 128Unite analysis of ONS vacancy data https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/vacanciesbyindustryvacs02 129Unite membership statistics. Quarters based on data provided to Executive

Committee. (Feb-Apr is Q1, etc.)

130https://as-

sets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1158789/Trade_Union_Membership_UK_1995-2022_Statistical_Bulletin.pdf p1 131https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/mgrz/lms , https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/trade-union-statistics-2022and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householdincomeinequalityfinancial/financialyearending2022 132https://equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed Table 4.4, pg 8

234

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

133https://as-

sets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1158252/Trade_Union_Membership_Statistics_Tables_2022.ods 134https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/09/now-even-the-bank-of-englandadmits-greedflation-is-a-thing 135Unite analysis of Big Four banks Q3 2022 and 2023 profit before tax results: HSBC: pgs 6-7, Barclays: pg 4, Natwest: pg 3 and Lloyds: pg 2. Conversion rate from HMRC at 0.8202 used for HSBC. 136Unite analysis of BP and Shell results - profit before tax Q1-Q3 2019-2023.

137Unite analysis of BP and Shell results - profit before tax Q1-Q3 2019-2023.

138Unite analysis of CapitalIQ 139Unite analysis of CapitalIQ 140Unite analysis of CapitalIQ 141Unite analysis of CapitalIQ 142https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-62631320 and https://www.ft.-

com/content/1ecfc49d-d46c-4d36-bf1f-fd34fb53adcf 143World Bank data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS?contextual=default&end=2021&locations=GB-DEUS-FR-CNIN-OE&start=1970 144Unite analysis of World Bank data 145Unite Investigates, 'Growth and Productivity Briefing', March 2023.

146https://highpaycentre.org/ftse-100-ceos-get-half-a-million-pound-pay-rise/ 147https://www.incomesdataresearch.co.uk/ 148https://highpaycentre.org/uk-pay-database/. Calculations here: https://www.drop-

box.com/s/4c53pwjdxfma5ee/UK Pay Database %E2%80%A2 High Pay Centre %28GS%29.csv?dl=0 149https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2022 150 https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fcvh6c211m9tmrf8vf8fm/dividend-percentages-calculations.xlsx?dl=0&rlkey=cutawrkza6psb01ggi3xp5jmc from ONS data found at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/datasets/ukeconomicaccounts

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

235

151 https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fcvh6c211m9tmrf8vf8fm/dividend-percentages-cal-

culations.xlsx?dl=0&rlkey=cutawrkza6psb01ggi3xp5jmc from ONS data found at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/datasets/ukeconomicaccounts 152https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/income-investing/604871/ftse-100-ten-highest-dividend-yields and https://www.ajbell.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/254997/ftse-100-dividends-forecast-hit-new-record2023-slowing-profit 153https://www.ft.com/content/f983434c-dbec-425b-8f20-e20ec5fa74b6 154https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/income-investing/604871/ftse-100-ten-highest-dividend-yields 155https://www.ft.com/content/635c6a36-a4ab-4645-ab54-6256f0cccf61 156https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4114577/2022-record-breaking-share-buybacks-inflation-flatten-trend 157https://www.santander.com/en/stories/share-buyback 158https://www.ft.com/content/635c6a36-a4ab-4645-ab54-6256f0cccf61 159https://www.ft.com/content/635c6a36-a4ab-4645-ab54-6256f0cccf61 160https://www.ft.com/content/34175764-f7b3-432f-93ba-05cdd1b5bc19 161https://www.tescoplc.com/investors/shareholder-centre/share-buyback-programme/ 162https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-

october-2023 Full Report pdf, p.14 163https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/uktradecountrybycommodityexports 164https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlookoctober-2023 Full Report pdf, p.40 165https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/uksecondestimateofgdpdatatables

Tab C2, column K divided by column P 166 ONS https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7t170eoa5l4nkvpb41tg4/Total-trade-by-country1997-to-2022.xlsx?rlkey=61i31fycll56ioiwo9az152cc&dl=0 167ONS https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7t170eoa5l4nkvpb41tg4/Total-trade-by-country1997-to-2022.xlsx?rlkey=61i31fycll56ioiwo9az152cc&dl=0 168https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive 169https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessinsightsandimpactontheukeconomy and analysis here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tuyp3sk58ii4doqlp2m32/supply-chaindisruption-stats-and-grap.xlsx?dl=0&rlkey=6ucjdoc704bf1rnp9w8afmcdo

236

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

170https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/august2023 171Note that the graph of goods trade is in inflation-adjusted terms which is why

there is no large rise in imports (or exports) when gas prices rose rapidly in 2022.

172https://www.ft.com/content/0472b02a-089c-4a19-b735-3271c254a7ea 173https://www.on-

s.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/producerpriceindicesqmi 174https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/producerpriceinflation/march2023includingservicesjanuarytomarch2023#servicesproducer-price-inflation 175Unite analysis of GB7S and GHIP 176https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/producerpriceinflation/september2023includingservicesjulytoseptember2023

see Figure 3 177https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/commodities/sp-gsci/#overview 178https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/bcom?countrycode=xx 179https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp 180https://container-news.com/scfi/ 181https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic 182https://fbx.freightos.com/ 183https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-04/TUC%20CPTPP%20-

briefing%20April%202021.pdf, p. 1.

184https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uk-and-the-comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnershipcptpp 185https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/comprehensive-and-progressiveagreement-trans-pacific-partnership 186https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/comprehensive-and-progressiveagreement-trans-pacific-partnership National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

237

187https://as-

sets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027860/dit-cptpp-uk-accession-strategic-approach.pdf, p. 30.

188https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-uks-indo-pacific-tilt-and-the-cptpps-prospects/ 189https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-04/TUC%20CPTPP%20briefing%20April%202021.pdf, p. 3.

190https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/giving-control-away-why-new-pacific-trade-deal-threatensour-rights-and-laws 191https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-04/TUC%20CPTPP%20briefing%20April%202021.pdf, p. 4.

192https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027860/dit-cptpp-uk-accession-strategic-approach.pdf, p. 60.

193https://www.ft.com/content/7b503583-b1d6-4763-a519-df46bdb3d924 194https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027860/dit-cptpp-uk-accession-strategic-approach.pdf, p. 29.

195https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-04/TUC%20CPTPP%20briefing%20April%202021.pdf, p. 4.

196https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JC760-NIESR-Outlook-Autumn2023-UK-v10.pdf?ver=Gim8X6AsBDEkbBZMOhS0 p77 197Unite analysis of ONS CDIDs YBFW and YBFZ 198https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.6) 199https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.6) 200https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/overall/hssh2122.pdf 201https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/causdis/index.htm and https://www.hse.gov-

.uk/statistics/?utm_source=press.hse.gov.uk&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=annualstats-22 202https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.9) 203https://www.ciphr.com/workplace-stress-statistics/ 204https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/?utm_source=press.hse.gov.uk&utm_medi-

um=referral&utm_campaign=annual-stats-22 205https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.8) 206https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/?utm_source=press.hse.gov.uk&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=annual-stats-22 207https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.6) 208https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/cost.htm 209https://www.gov.uk/government/news/strikes-bill-becomes-law 210https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/january/unite-slams-second-

reading-of-anti-strike-bill-as-preposterous/ 211https://www.clydeco.com/en/insights/2023/05/strikes-minimum-service-levels-bill-thestory-so-f 212https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/governments-anti-strikes-bill-defeated-house-lords

238

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

213https://www.clydeco.com/en/insights/2023/05/strikes-minimum-service-levels-bill-the-

story-so-f 214https://www.gov.uk/government/news/strike-laws-to-be-passed-to-protect-vital-publicservices-over-christmas 215https://www.gov.uk/government/news/strike-laws-to-be-passed-to-protect-vital-publicservices-over-christmas 216https://www.independent.co.uk/business/minimum-service-level-strike-laws-extended-toambulance-rail-and-border-workers-b2442577.html 217https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67344306 218https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2023/june/unite-announces-newambulance-and-hospital-strikes-as-nhs-pay-and-safe-staffing-dispute-intensifies/ 219https://www.acas.org.uk/acas-code-of-practice-on-disclosure-of-information-to-trade-unions-for-collective-bargaining/html 220https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/19/uk-fiscal-watchdog-obr-admitserrors-inflation-forecasting-high-energy-prices and https://www.ft.com/content/b972f5e34f03-4986-890d-5443878424ac and Unite Analysis of Treasury forecast documents: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts 221https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/19/uk-fiscal-watchdog-obr-admitserrors-inflation-forecasting-high-energy-prices and https://www.ft.com/content/b972f5e34f03-4986-890d-5443878424ac and https://obr.uk/download/october-2021-economic-andfiscal-outlook-supplementary-fiscal-tables-expenditure/?tmstv=1699442982 inflation tab, RPI Q4 2024 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/czbh/mm23 and https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators Gas and electricity day ahead contracts 222https://www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/history/historical-picture.pdf (p.6) 223https://www.gov.uk/statutory-sick-pay

National Bargaining and Disputes Support Unit

239