Nanovic Poster Session — Belarus: Media Dissidences in the Face of Authoritarianism

Belarus

Media Dissidences in the Face of Authoritarianism

Poster Session February 2022 1050/1060 Jenkins Nanovic Halls Elizabeth Eggemeier Claire Lyons Katherine Mansourova Nora Murphy Garrett Pacholl Dara-Marie Raggay Anne Rehill Alexia Zolenski

Belarus and the Fall of the Soviet Union "Belarus was the most Soviet of Republics" -Andrew Wilson Source: Wilson, "Politics on Either Side of Independence," 143.

1986: Gorbachev begins to

July 1990: Supreme Soviet

implement glasnost and

enacts a Declaration of

perestroika

Belarusian State Sovereignty

1988: Mass graves discovered

December 1991: The Belavezha

in Kurapaty; formation of

Accords are signed, effectively

Belarusian People's Front (BPF)

dissolving the Soviet Union

Belarus: The Nationless State

The Weakness of the BPF The BPF was a pro-independence party within Belarus. Lacking a clear governmental vision and led by political amateurs, however, the group failed to gain any real traction within Belarus.

The Belarusian national identity was not a prevalent idea among 20thcentury Belarusians, which allowed the Soviet state of Belarus (BSSR) to hold power with little opposition from nationalist currents.

1991 Referendum: Should the USSR remain intact?

100

Percent Voting Yes

1990 Legislative Election: the BPF (green in the diagram) won only 27 of the 345 available seats

Source: Savchenko, "Borderland Forever," 155.

Media Freedom and Glasnost Glasnost was a USSR-wide policy that gradually loosened state media control. Unlike in other Soviet states, however, glasnost did not have a significant impact on Belarusian independence.

Percent Voting Yes

75 50 25 0

The Collapse

BSSR

USSR Average

Source: Wilson, "Politics on Either Side of Independence," 150.

Mikhail Gorbachev, leader of the USSR who helped to enact glasnost.

CRITICAL MOMENTS in Lukashenko's Rise

by Anne Rehill

LUKASHENKO TAKES FIRST OFFICE AS DEPUTY TO SUPREME COUNCIL OF BELARUS, 1990 Young Lukashenko gains his first political office, leading the way to an appointment to the anti-corruption commission in the new Belarusian government in 1993. In these early days, Belarus was facing an economic crisis and a decline in living standards under the new liberal democratic rule.

1994 ELECTION Lukashenko wins the very first Belarusian Presidential Election, freely and fairly, promising to reconnect with Belarus's soviet past.

1996 REFERENDUM Lukashenko dismisses the parliament, creates presidential decrees, and extends his term to 2001, consolidating power.

2001 ELECTION The disappearances of opposition leader Viktar Hanchar and businessman Anatol Krasouski come out before Lukashenko wins the 2001 presidential race with 77.4% of votes, allegedly. The OSCE reports flawed election tactics including blocking of the opposition, early voting measures that skewed the ballot counting, and censorship of the media.

THE DENIM REVOLUTION, 2006 In the wake of Lukashenko's 2006 reelection, protests break out against his Soviet-like policies. Protesters wear denim as a symbol of western culture and their desire to be unisolated from the west.

ALEH BYABENIN'S DEATH, 2015 Amidst campaigning for the 2015 Presidential election, a Belarusian journalist for a political opposition news website, who was investigating disappearances of opposition politicians, is found hanged in his home.

The 2020 Election Unexpected contenders, unprecented crackdown Early 2020

A Vulnerable Lukashenko Suppresses Opposition ff

An economic recession and negligent response to the pandemic hurt Lukashenko's popularity Belarus GDP Growth %, 2017-2020 4 3

Candidates disqualified

2

Candidates arrested

1

Sergei Tikhanovsky's video blog revealing popular discontent with Lukashenko

Subscribers

Tikhanovsky is barred from running and arrested

0

Candidate flees -1

2017

2018

2019

2020

May-July 2020

An Unexpected Candidate Gains Ground Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Sergei's wife, runs in his stead, promising to hold new, fair elections if she wins

"Squash the cockroach!"

- Rally cry for Tikhanovskaya campaign

"Poor thing...society is not mature enough to elect a woman."

Attendants at July 30 Minsk rally for Tikhanovskaya

-Lukashenko, on Tikhanovskaya

August 2020

A Fraudalent Election Sparks Outrage Poll workers report widespread electoral fraud, such as ballots for Tikhanovsky and Lukashenko being swapped 80

Official Results Independent Exit Poll Results

100,000

60

Protesters gather in Minsk Largest demonstration in Belarusian history

40

30,000

Protesters arrested by the end of the year

20

0

-Tikhanovskaya

Belarusians "convinced" the election was fraudulent Lukashenko

Tikhanovskaya

3 PILLARS OF LUKASHENKO'S REGIME PRESERVATION KATHERINE MANSOUROVA

1 Political Prisoners Roman Protasevich Journalist + Opposition Activist

1,000 750

Lukashenko's crackdown

500 250 0

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20 '21

Action Co-founder and former editor of the NEXTA channel on Telegram Charges Organization of riots and actions that grossly violate public order

'22

Political Prisoners in Belarus

2 Russian Alliance Support Energy + Military

Tactics Ghostwriter Disinformation Campaign

3 2022 Constitutional Referendum Amendments

Lukashenko's Objectives

Two 5 year term limits going forward

Legitimize regime

Grant governing status to the All-Belarusian People's Assembly

Illusion of democracy Stay in office until 2035

End Result

Lukashenko's power extended and strengthened

20

media landscape characterized by a dispersed and scattered means of getting information

+

effectively evades government censorship

-

15

10

leads to increased spread of misinformation

LUKASHEN K O ' S M EANS OF CENSOR S H - jailin I P g jo urnalists

5

0

After th e 2020 protest s, many were il Belarus legally ian jou detaine rnalists d .

S o m forcibly e foreig detaine n repor d by th ters we e redire re ction o f flights .

- restrictive

ko's n e h s a k Lu ion t c e l E e at Illegitim

20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21

decentralized media strategy -

Census of Belarusian Journalists in Jail*

New Media Alternatives

media legis lation

Passed in May 2021, t he Law covera of Mas ge of s Media "unauth prohibi o r ts i z ed ma politica ss gat l opinion herings " and p o l l s . indepe Subseq ndent m uently, edia ou many tlets we re shut down.

- internet ce nsorship

The inte rnet in Belarus is state -owned which a llows the gov ernmen t to dis rupt the interne t and b lock VP Ns. *the ce nsus co nducte d by th journal e CPJ o ists wh o've be nly cou en in ja nts il for ov er a ye ar

Radio Broadcast

evades censorship through its communication medium

Telegram App

has anonymous users — even news sites like Nexta

Krama App

helps organize boycotts against Lukashenko

CENSORSHIP AND MEDIA ALTERNATIVES

Twitter

updates the opposition and international community

Youtube

helped opposition parties gain traction

Libby Eggemeier

U.S. RESPONSE TO BELARUS N E E W T E B S SHIFT S N O I T A R T ADMINIS

Joe Biden The Biden Administration has been vocal about its concerns in Belarus; however, it faces the challenge of helping Belarus but with a broader focus on de-escalating conflict with Russia.

Donald Trump

The Trump Administration did not take advantage of opportunities to condemn the 2020 Belarusian election, which reflects larger shortcomings in launching a response.

LACK OF IMPACT OF U.S. SANCTIONS ON QUALITY OF DEMOCRACY Democratic

1st election of Lukashenko

BELARUS AS A PAWN IN LARGER U.S. VS RUSSIA CONFLICT

4th unfair election Mass protests after 5th election

Autocratic 1990

2000

2010

2020

U.S. Sanctions

MEDIA SUPRESSION

POLITICAL RESPONSE In December 2021, the U.S. and its allies issued a

U.S. Foreign Aid

statement condemning

Assistance is targeted

the regime's buildup of political prisoners and

at promoting an

calling for an end to the

independent media.

campaign of repression.

GOALS AND MOTIVATIONS Goals: Protect and promote American interests in Europe to counteract Russian influence and authority Motivations: A shift to a free-market economy, free media, and generally democratic Belarus benefits U.S. economic dealings and amplifies American political power

AUTHORITARIANISM

IN

BELARUS

THE EU RESPONSE ALEXIA ZOLENSKI

October 2020 EU imposes first round of sanctions.

August 2020 Alexander Lukashenko "wins" his sixth term in office as Belarusian president.

December 2020 EU imposes third round of sanctions.

December 2021 EU imposes fifth round of sanctions, designating a total of 183 individuals and 26 entities under a travel ban and asset freeze.

June 2021 EU bans Belarusian carriers from its airspace and airports, including candidate and EEA countries.

November 2020 EU imposes second round of sanctions.

EU imposes fourth round of sanctions.

NDEP I S T

TNEDNE

R O PPUS

UE

IS THE RESPONSE EFFECTIVE?

AID

"Sanctions split the elites, destroy corruption schemes, and divide people around Lukashenko."

EM

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarusian Opposition

"We have an interest that people in Belarus are looked after... [and] have also discussed the humanitarian situation on the Polish side of the border."

Angela Merkel, Former Chancellor of Germany

"[Poland maintained] solidarity with other free-world countries long before the European Union and NATO were born."

Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland

OBSTACLES LACK OF UNITY

RELATIVE TURNOUT IN 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION (OUT OF 100%)

The EU's legitimacy quavers in the face of brewing internal hostility, leaving the bloc unequipped to deal with issues outside its borders.

RHETORIC VS. ACTION

Portugal 30.75

Slovakia 22.74 Belgium 88.47

Hungary 43.36

Past mistakes, including the EU's long history of border externalization, allowed Lukashenko to instrumentalize migrants, resulting in human rights violations within the EU's own borders.

Poland 45.68

Malta 72.7

RUSSIA Russia's grip on the EU's energy supply renders the bloc vulnerable to further manipulation.

France 50.12

Germany 61.38

In order for the EU to propagate a more effective response, it should coordinate with the US to strengthen support for independent media. These efforts are crucial in undermining Lukashenko's current hold on Belarus and safeguarding democracy both within and outside EU borders.

Belarus Futures: Policy Recommendations & Global Impact Media Freedom in the Absence of Imminent Regime Change

Revitalize EU-US Cooperation Deepen current measures implemented by the EU & US. Invest in EU-US institutional networks & strategic planning.

Provide assistance and protection to the Belarus opposition.

Strengthen Media & Press Inform journalists, CSOs & civilians of their rights.

Enforce & strengthen laws for freedom, privacy, & security.

Amend the Belarus law on mass media.

Regulate social media, without censorship.

Promote reliable & diverse information sources.

Train journalists in UN human rights procedures.

Incentivize transparency & accountability.

Deter a Kremlin Crackdown Actively manage Russia’s influence in Belarus.

Address the risks of military confrontation.

Avoid events which may escalate Russia’s reaction.

Regional & Global Implications Undermining Lukashenko’s hold on power while avoidiing threats to Moscow’s security interests will require a deepening of current measures & increased coordination between the EU & U.S. Continued failure to effectively transform the situation in Belarus could potentially catalyze a new world order more tolerant of authoritarian & illiberal leadership.

The media will play a significant role in upholding the values of democracy, even in the absence of imminent regime change.

Dara-Marie Raggay (2022)