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Population changes and negative migration
from 2021 Report
In March 2020, the Government took the unprecedented step of closing New Zealand’s borders to all but New Zealand citizens and permanent residents. What had been a steady net gain of between 50,000 and 72,000 people a year over the previous six years, became a deficit. In 2021, net migration hit a low of -3900 people (outflow). New Zealand had not seen negative net migration since 2012 when a mining boom saw particularly large outflows of New Zealanders to Australia (62,800 in June 2012).
This has flowed down into population growth in Hamilton. The core components of population change are net internal migration, net international migration and natural increase (births minus deaths). The impact of border closures has been telling. International migration added an estimated 2500 people to our population in 2019 and another 3300 in 2020. In 2021 this fell to a net decline of an estimated 70 people. Historically Hamilton’s largest internal migration inflow and outflow of new residents has come from Waikato and Auckland. On balance, Hamilton lost more people than we gained to Waikato and gained more people than we lost to Auckland.
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New Zealand’s borders began to reopen in April 2022 and the requirements for isolation on arrival are being removed. It is expected that there will be a gradual increase in the number of people moving to New Zealand in 2022 and beyond, however, indications from the government (and economists) are that it will not return to the levels seen pre-pandemic for the foreseeable future.
Borders reopening will also see an outflow of kiwis as people who have delayed travel head overseas for holidays, family relocations and work opportunities. In addition, countries like Australia are working hard to entice international workers as they struggle with tight labour market conditions. New Zealand’s net migration is expected to be low or even remain in deficit longer than previously anticipated.
Source: Statistics New Zealand As at 30 June 2021
