Future Food: Today

FUTURE FOOD: TODAY

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Preface On Future Food

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What we eat, and the way we eat, contribute to a significant extent to how we define our personal and social identities. A person’s attitude toward food can reveal their most intimate needs and concerns.

While the importance of food is not destined to degrade in the near future, humanity’s relationship to food is already taking different forms. In order to feed 10 billion people by 2050 — humanity itself depends on radical changes.

As designers, trained to produce human-cenetered solutions, we are uniquely positioned to imagine the opportunities to transform what, and how, we eat in the future of food.

To a food secure future,

nadim Nadim Ismail

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INDEX 06 our food system

10 the big picture

15 the megatrends

36 urban food production

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38 alternative proteins

40 food as medicine

42 designing new norms

46 food for thought

48 cellular cultivation

50 new harvests

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Discovery Our food system

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INTRODUCTION

One of the greatest human achievements over the last half century is the advancements in food production that have kept pace with the global demand.

Despite these successes, over 800 million people are still hungry, 2 billion more lack sufficient micro nutrients, and 2.5 billion people consume excess calories for their needs.1

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Food and our planet In addition to health concerns, there are also major issues about the environmental footprint of food systems. The current methods of food production are significantly degrading natural resources and are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.2 Therefore, one of the greatest societal challenges we face in the 21st century is to achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanizing population, while at the same time minimizing future environmental impact and diet-related diseases.

1 CNBC: A hungry world: Lots of food, in too few places 2 FAO: Food wastage footprint

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A look at the big picture By the year 2050, there are projected to be 10 billion people on Earth. In 2020, humanity and the planet are still unprepared to sustain a population of that size.

As numerous recent studies suggest, feeding a population of that size requires an approach that looks at the global food system in its entirety, rather than focusing on individual aspects such as increasing production or productivity.

It is also not enough to increase the production of crops that support healthier diets. Curbing the demand for the consumption of unhealthy diets is just as important.

As a society, we must move away from a system centered around calories - to one that prioritizes nutritional quality. This can only happen if we implement interventions across food systems.

There is a looming urgency to make these changes worldwide. Currently, all forms of malnutrition cost $3.5 trillion annually, and non-communicable diseases due to obesity (such as cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes) cost an additional $2 trillion.3

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Nourish Food System Map What's Your Relationship to Food? Look Closer.

Fa r m i n g N

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P

U

T

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Sunlight Biodiversity

Chemicals

Seed

Farmers

Know-how Labor

Water

Money Food

Nutrients

Food Wholesalers

Food Companies

Land Use

E n v i ro n m e n t a l

Climate Change Pollution

Agriculture

B I OLOGI CAL SYS TEM

E C O N O MIC SY ST E M

Land & Soil Ground Water

Grocery Stores

Animal Welfare

S U P P L Y Farming

Trash

Waste

Restaurants

Transport

Food Literacy

Commercial

Farmers Markets and CSAs

Lobbying

Waste Food

Consumer

Money

H E A LT H SY ST E M

P O L I T I CA L SY ST E M

Family & Friends

Wellness Care Prevention

Economic

Biodiversity

Government & Policy

Regulations Community

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Food Safety Food Security

Taxes

A N E M D

Subsidies Ownership Trade

SO C IA L SY ST E M

Region

National

Social Network

Civic Engagement

Media/Advertising Access Global

Education Food Culture

Social

www.nourishlife.org copyright Š 2014 WorldLink

3 unicef: 2018 Global Nutrition Report Image: Nourish Food System Map

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The global megatrends Our planet and its food systems will be shaped by a myriad of global megatrends over the next decades. Summarized below is a list of megatrends according to the STEEP framework that distinguishes between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors.

Socio-Demographic Population Growth Aging Urbanization Technological

Economic

AI + Big Data Cellular Agriculture Robotics + 3D Printing Blockchain

Growth Poverty Employment Environmental Climate Change Natural Disasters Energy & Resources Political Conflicts & Crises Women’s Empowerment

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Insights The megatrends

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SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC

POPULATION GROWTH X AGING

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The world population is expected to grow by more than 2 billion people by 2050, reaching approximately 10 billion.

Half of all population growth is expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is expected to double, while Asia’s population is expected to grow by 41%.4

Compounded by the proportion of the population aged 65 and above expected to sharply increase by 2050. Aging will have major implications on labor supply leading to strained social safety nets and healthcare systems.

4 UN: World Population Prospects 2019

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SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC

URBANIZATION X MIGRATION

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By 2050, almost 70% of people in the world will live in urban areas, compared to less than 54% currently. Global urbanization could lead to an addition of 2.4 billion people to towns and cities by 2050.5 This increased urbanization will bring to rush the number of megacities and other urban centers.

This could lead to potentially dire health consequences. Cities account for more than 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and use two-thirds of the world’s energy.5 As these numbers go up - air pollution will have a larger negative effect on human health.

While urbanization will stretch supply chains, it will also create opportunities to shape new consumer experiences.

5 UN: 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects

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TECHNOLOGICAL

AI X BIG DATA

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely the most significant trend that is rapidly reshaping almost every component of our lives.

Throughout the supply chain, AI can provide new insights and predictions, while also enhancing accuracy and effienciency of tasks through automation.

AI is already causing significant disruption in numerous industries.

In food systems, AI can be used to create precise nutrient content for specific consumers, improve soil health, and increase efficiency and safety in production.

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TECHNOLOGICAL

CELLULAR AGRICULTURE

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Cellular agriculture, or bioengineering, is the use of technology and science to manipulate, redesign, and create organic material.6 Genetic engineering, including DNA editing and stem cell research, is advancing rapidly and becoming increasingly advanced and available.

Cellular agriculture can have a significant influence on the agriculture and food sectors, enabling scientists to invoke desirable traits such as increased yields and improved nutrition.

6 New Harvest: What is Cellular Agriculture?

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TECHNOLOGICAL

ROBOTICS X 3D PRINTING

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The impact of robotics and workplace automation will significantly disrupt employment and change the nature of work.

In agriculture and food production, robotics will enable faster, more efficient and agile food systems.

3D printing is a method of creating three-dimensional products using a digital process. The technology is projected to grow by 18% in 2025, and become more prevalent in households.7 In the food industry, 3D printing is already being used for automated cooking, mass manufacturing, and personalized meals.

7 Transparency Market Research: 3D Printing Market

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TECHNOLOGICAL

NANOTECHNOLOGY

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Nanotechnology deals with the manipulation of individual atoms and molecules to create functional materials and systems that posses unique properties and capabilities.

Between 2014 and 2019, the global nanotechnology market grew by 20%, and is expected to grow by more than 17% by 2024.8

Nanotechnology is expected to become increasingly common in products and all aspects of human life.

In food systems, nanotechnology can be used to transform consumer experiences with food through flavor enhancers or better availability of nutrients.

8 Allied Market Research: Global Nanotechnology Market

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ECONOMIC

ECONOMIC GROWTH X EXTREME POVERTY

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The World Bank projects that highincome countries are expected to only grow at 1.6%, but developing countries will grow at 5.2%.

Raising incomes and a growing middle class will lead to increases in food consumption, most notably with increases in meat and dairy demand, which in turn will lead to adverse environemntal effects.

Extreme poverty, measured in terms of the number of people living below US $1.90 a day, has significantly declined yet, 736 million people were considered so in 2015.9

9 World Bank: Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018

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ENVIRONMENTAL

CLIMATE CHANGE X NATURAL DISASTERS

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As the climate continues to change, all living organisms on the planet will need to adapt to the adverse effects of higher temperatures, rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions.

The past three decades has seen a rise in the frequency of natural disasters, and is expected to become more intense in the future.10 Natural distasters can devastate food production systems, reduce food advailability, and inflate food prices.

10 IMF: Climate Change Will Bring More Frequent Natural Disasters

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POLITICAL

VIOLENT CONFLICTS X CRISES

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According to the United Nations, the number of countries in violent conflict in 2017 was the highest in 30 years.The overall economic costs of such violence reached $14.8 trillion in 2017.

As an example, after eight years of conflict, 9.5 million Syrians were deemed to be food insecure.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate this trend, as extreme weather and food insecurity create competition for resources.

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STRATEGIES Assessing Opportunities

Case Study

2019/2020

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URBAN FOOD PRODUCTION With the rise of urbanization, consumers are increasingly disconnected from food production.

This puts an increased strain on farming, transportation, and distribution, as larger volumes of food are transported long distances to feed billions.

This disconnection also contributes to poor health and obesity, as consumers prioritize convenient, processed food that is most easily accessible in urban environments.

WHAT IF? Schools, hospital, government organizations and private companies were able to offset most of their nutritional needs by locally sourcing them?

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ALTERNATIVE PROTEINS Livestock production represents around 15% of all greenhouse gas emissions,at the same time, by 2050, global meat consumption is expected to increase by 76%.11 Alternative proteins have the potential to disrupt a major economic sector and transform our understanding of meat. This opportunity can enable healthier diets with the potential ability to precisly deliver nutrients.

WHAT IF? There were multiple and affordable alternatives to animal prteins that not only replicated the exact taste and texture, but was also made widely available for consumers all over the world?

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11 Economist: Global meat-eating is on the rise

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FOOD AS MEDICINE There has been a comprehensive shift in our understanding and use of food as a tenet of human health. We now know the food we eat interacts with the complex systems throughout our human body, including the gut microbiome and our genetic make-up.

This opportunity has the ability to transform the medical field through a shift towards preventative nutrition-based health care, rather than reactive medical practices.

WHAT IF? Individuals had the ability to target their gut microbiome with the right amounts of dietary fiber, grains, sugars, fats and carbohydrates all at the right time to enhance their health and reduce diseases.

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DESIGNING NEW NORMS Advances in behavioral science have opened compelling means of influencing human behavior, and yet, most of this has been directed towards fashion choices and binge-watching experiences - rather than towards crafting health, more environmentally sustainable food norms.

This opportunity has the power to transform consumer behavior and their relationship with food, improve food literacy, and incentivize the production of healtheir and more environmentally foods.

WHAT IF? A range of smart, behavior-focused influences were designed to shift consumer demand, and tranform our relationship with food choices?

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Scenarios Future visions

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FOOD FOR THOUGHT

2022

In 2022, we will be eating towards a healthy planet and population. The shift is driven from the rise of public awareness of how our food impacts not only our individual health, but also the health of the environment.

PRODUCTS MIND Foods

PARTNERSHIPS Loblaws Baycrest Health CABHI

ADVANCEMENTS Gut brain axis The microbiome

BEHAVIORS Food as medicine

Layla has just returned to her parents home from university in Singapore where she is studying her degree in food science.

Tomorrow is her grandmother’s 90th birthday and she is planning to cook a meal for the entire family.

She opens up the meal planner app on her phone and takes into account her brother’s lactose intolerance, mother’s love of Thai, and her grandmother’s brain food diet. The brain food diet by MIND Foods was specially designed to prevent dementia and the loss of brain function that comes with age.

Shortly after, the app alerts her that the order will be ready for collection at the local Loblaws at 1 PM. While at the supermarket, Layla stop by the kitchen demo area to see a workshop taught by the Centre for Aging + Brain Health Innovation, led by Baycrest Health Sciences. The local doctor, is stirring a sizzling skillet of lion’s mane mushrooms, while discussing the microbiome and the relationship between the gut and the brain, and its role on mental health.

Layla knows from her studies that there is a huge amount of research going into the gut brain axis, particularly the role it plays in the immune system and controlling inflammation. In 2022 it is recognized that food is medicine and research has associated brain disorders such as autism, depression, dementia and schizophrenia with our highly unique microbiomes.

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CELLULAR CULTIVATION

2050

By 2050, new technological developments will see the rise of trends in cellular agriculture. This technology will lead to a significant expansion of food groups that will allow us to use our planet’s resources more sustainably while exploring adventurous new produce.

BUSINESS Alternative protein ADVANCEMENTS Novel proteins Cellular agriculture 3D printing Vertical farms Bioreactors Robotics

BEHAVIORS Adventurous cuisines Elevated transparency Decline of abattoirs

Layla, who now lives in Vancouver, runs a successful environmentally friendly protein business. The novel protein industry grew exponentially after the decline of slaughterhouses in Canada in the 2030s. Alongside cellular agriculture in the form of lab grown meat, she offers dried algae and jellyfish, sold as pastas and powders.

Layla is greeted by a regular customer. It’s Mr. Ismail. He comes to her facility once a week to select cuts for his family dinner and watches the meat being printed out. Her specialized factory has a number of automated robots, with the only humans involved in the process performing quality control and prototyping new menus and experiences for her customers.

At one end of the factory is a vertical hydroponic farm that cultivates plants that provide the growth serum in which the lab grown meat is developed. At the the other end, giant bioreactors lead to a conveyor belt where meat is made with 3D printing technology.

Her customers value the transparency of the entire process both digitally and physically.

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NEW HARVESTS

2122

In 2122, the superforce of hyper precision nutrition will bring about a renaissance on Earth. We will celebrate our shared humanity through the act of eating - reconnecting to not only our environment, but each other.

BUSINESS Intravenous nutrition PARTNERSHIPS Loblaws

ADVANCEMENTS Precision nutrition Circadian nutrition Drone delivery Autonomous everything

BEHAVIORS Communal eating Holobiont beings

Liam (Layla’s grandson) awakes at 9 AM to a vibration on his wrist. He taps his skin to snooze the alarm, which then notifies his nutritional supply to prepare his intravenous breakfast drip. His custom intravenous drip, the pinnacle of precision nutrition, was dropped off by drone delivery last night from Loblaws.

Liam blinks twice and closes his eyes to watch a daily local report. The community of Ocadians where he lives are planning an outdoors social eating experience to celebrate the 102nd anniversary of the MIND Foods diet that was introduced in 2020.

During the report, he sees the famous scene of his grandmother Layla, who was a pioneer of the food as medicine movement, speaking about the microbiome and the gut brain axis.

In 2122, it is common knowledge that humans are holobiont beings - meaning they share an intimate, co-dependant symbiotic relationship with their microbes. Liam is interrupted

by Sa-Ra, who administers his intravenous breakfast drip at precisely 9:15 AM - aware of the role of nutrition aligned with a person’s unique circadian rhythm.

Despite exponential technological advancements since 2020, humanity is more cognizant of the vital partnership that is required with nature to feed their microbiome, and the celebration of life through food is appreciated today now more than ever.

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FORESIGHT

LOOKING AHEAD

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What is clear from this report is that global food systems require meaningful disruptions that are designed to permanently change the trajectory of the future.

In an age where there is a state of anxiety that was unknown to premodern societies - the current phase of social uncertainties is difficult to predict.

What is for certain, however, is that the importance of food will not diminish.

The purpose of this work is to offer suggestions for contemplation, and look at how as designers, we can attempt to enhance the most positive aspects of future trends. “Food is the true fuel of history.�

- Marino Niola, Anthropologist

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The best way to predict the future is to create it.

Nadim Ismail nadim.ismail@gmail.com +1 416.845.2606