Urban Contingency Practice and Planning, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway

Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Semester booklet, Spring 2021 Urban Ecological Planning (UEP) Master’s Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

AAR5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Semester Booklet, Spring 2021 Urban Ecological Planning Master’s Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Course Coordinator: Mrudhula Koshy Lecturer and doctoral researcher, NTNU Research & Teaching Associate: Riny Sharma

Course Lecturers:

Mrudhula Koshy (Uncertainty and Contingency) Lecturer and doctoral reseacher, NTNU Peter Gotsch (Scenario Planning) Professor (UEP), NTNU Wang Yu (Disaster & Risk Management) Senior Researcher, NTNU

Guest Lecturers:

David Smith (Resilience) Postdoctoral researcher, University of Montréal, Montréal, Canada Shuaib Lwasa (Climate Change Adaptation) Principal Researcher, Global Centre on Adaptation Groningen, The Netherlands David Sanderson (Humanitarian response) Professor, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia

Booklet Layout

and design:

Nick A. Kiahtipes Student, (UEP, 2020)

Sources for cover image:

Connections.no Trondheim2030.no

Foreword The COVID pandemic continues to persist into the second year impacting every aspect of our lives in unexpected ways. More than ever, there is a global realization from governance institutions, decision makers and civil society organizations on the necessity and value of effective contingency planning to deal with uncertainties and unexpected events.

The ‘Urban Contingency Practice and Planning’ course (7.5 credits) attempts to understand how theory, practice and policy could be reconfigured to deal with contingencies. The course is held every spring semester in association with the Urban Ecological Planning (UEP) Master’s program at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway. By discussing various concepts such as uncertainty, contingency, resilience and scenario planning at the intersection of spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and humanitarian response, the course equips students to recognize and synthesize uncertainties of various levels and intensities, and to develop contextual and multi-scalar plans and design responses that are flexible and adaptable.

The premise of this group assignment was to prepare a contingency plan for a hypothetical crisis of unexpected floods (due to sea level rise or heavy rainfall) in Trondheim.

Like many cities around the world, Trondheim faces a range of risks and threats. In such cases, rather than viewing uncertainty as a catastrophe, envisioning different scenarios can be seen as a catalyst so that institutions, organizations, and communities can enable visions for radical and transformative change.

To stimulate transdisciplinary research, the general objectives of this group work were to: 1.

Explore the range of perceived and documented risks, threats, and uncertainties in Trondheim.

2.

Analyze the various stakeholders,

institutions, and organizations in Trondheim, which are dealing with

(perceived) disruptions and the ways they could prepare, respond, adapt, and transform.

3.

Understand that the range of scenarios and different constraints can lead to different outcomes in plans and strategies. While it might be tempting to adopt generic practices since it is a hypothetical scenario, students were reminded that the existing morphology, spatial structure, and geographical location of the selected area in Trondheim could have a substantial influence on their proposed plan.

4.

Document best practices and cases from other disaster-prone and vulnerable areas that are appropriate for the given scenario.

5.

Propose a contingency plan based on the hypothetical scenario and, through it, outline a response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and budget. This can also include sets of flexible tools, strategies and frameworks that can deal with unexpected and unprecedented uncertainties and enhance planning for contingencies based on this exploration.

Each team was given one hypothetical scenario with a different set of resource, institutional, spatial and climate change constraints. Within the given constraints, students prepared a contingency plan which comprises a set of frameworks, tools and strategies that are flexible and adaptable.

The group work was substantiated with peer-to-peer learning and feedback.

We hope you enjoy reading this compiled booklet of the students’ hard work as much as we enjoyed teaching the course!

Kind regards, Mrudhula Koshy and Riny Sharma

Contingency plan for Ilsvikøra

Preparing for future sea- level rise and flooding AAR5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Group 1

Beketa Abdulwehab Rubaid Naskar Silje Reite Moen

Abstract

Cities are facing the impacts of climate change where planning for it (current and future impacts) is an urgent task (Araos, 2017). With a rapidly changing climate due to a changing environment basically due to human action brings uncertainty in the future that has the potential of causing a disastrous impact on our lives and livelihoods.

Hence, a contingency plan is making decisions in advance about the management of human and financial resources that includes the technic and logistic response to possible uncertain events (IFRC, 2021a).The paper attempts to answer ‘how can we cope with a hypothetical uncertainty of flooding in the low-density area of Ilsvikøra due to sea-level rise using sufficient resources we have in the absence of disaster management authority through Contingency planning?’. Thus, in this paper, we apply the theories of a self-conscious, assertive and systematic approach in our unknown technology (means) but agreed goal to discover a workable solution for future possible flood hazard through establishing organized disaster management authority and relevant stakeholders.

The result shows that having a clear preparedness plan, collaboration with relevant stakeholders at all level can help mitigate the possible disaster.

In conclusion, all contingency planning elements help organize the resources we have, identify and coordinate with stakeholders, implement and monitor the response strategies through clearly defined operational plans, especially in the absence

of disaster management authority.

Introduction

Throughout the last century, the number of damaging flood events has increased on a global scale. The climate changes that we see worldwide, such as more intense rainfall and sea-level rise, are adding to future flood risk (Restemeyer, Woltjer and van den Brink, 2015).The ability to adapt to the sea level rise has substantially increased in recent years and has been included in many planning (National Research Council, 2010). See figure 2, which describes how the sea level has changed over time. The sea-level change is described in two ways, absolute and relative.

In this project, we have been given a hypothetical crisis scenario of unexpected floods. Based on this we will present a contingency plan.

Our given scenario:

Trondheim is a very low-density city and is prone to floods caused due to sea-level rise. The municipality has substantial resources but does not have a Disaster Management Authority (DMA).

Figure 1: Picture of Site Location-Ilsvikøra (Ila Trondheim 2021)

Figure 2: Global average absolute sea level change from 1880- 2015 (EPA, 2021)

Low density Being low dense can give space for mitigation actions and shows less vulnerable people.

Flood Hazard Flood hazards due to sea-level rise and stream overflow can be caused as a result of heavy rain fall.

Ilsvikøra

have in recent years been replaced by new, green areas such as parks and green patches.

This assignment is hypothetical, in reality, the area we have chosen is high density, but in our scenario the area is low density. We chose this area because it is close to the sea and will therefore be affected by sea-level rise.

Theory

Resilience can be defined differently from different perspective, in the context of cities and flooding, resilience can be defined as a city that takes necessary precautions to prevent flooding and adapts land- use to suffer less in a flooding disaster.

Substantial resource sufficient resources helps us utilize The term can be considered an approach that is promising when dealing with the unpredictability of implement the response strategies without any resource climate change and future flood risk (Restemeyer, constraints and also compensate Woltjer and van den Brink, 2015). the vulnerable people.

We can define disaster with the combination of hazard and vulnerability. When a natural disaster No disaster management occurs, hazard refers to the input from the authority environment. This can be a microbial pathogen, in absence of DMA, identifying volcanic activity, precipitation or lack of it, or stakeholders and defined operation climatic trends. Vulnerability can be referred to plans helps us get prepared. as the propensity to be harmed by a hazard and not to be able to deal with that harm alongside the social processes creating and maintaining that propensity (Kelman et al., 2016).

We have chosen the area of Ilsvikøra and it is an area located west of Trondheim city center. Today it is mostly residential with wooden houses and mixed buildings. The traces of the previous industry

As IFRC use this equation and defines it like this: “a disaster occurs when a hazard impacts on vulnerable people” (IFRC, 2021b).

( V U L N E R A B I L I T Y + H A Z A R D ) / C A PA C I T Y =DISASTER Hazard can be defined as “a threatening event, or the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a given time period and area” (Kelman, 2018).

Reseach Question

Based on the case and our given scenario, we have developed this research question that we aim to answer through a contingency plan: How can we cope with a hypothetical uncertainty of flooding in the low-density area of Ilsvikøra due to sea-level rise using sufficient resources we have

Figure 3: Location Map & Site Context (Kartverket, 2021)

Context of Site Site analysis Trondheim is the capital of Trøndelag county in the middle of Norway and closes to the Nidelva river, and fjords and half of the population lives in Trondheim. The current population is approximately 207,595 but expected to increase around 238,720 by 2050 (Statistics Norway, 2021). The area, Ilsvikøra is located approximately 1.8 kilometres west of the city centre in Trondheim and close to the sea. Ilsvikøra is 11.9 hectares approximately and consists of residential buildings that include high- rise blocks built later 1950s. It includes modern low- rise buildings and distinctive wooden houses with small gardens. The area is mixed of industrial and commercial activities. The urban space offers other things like fitness gyms, cafes, bakery, clinics, nursing homes, and grocery stores. Bigger housing development is expected in the future (Ilsvika, 2021), but now the area has many open spaces in the middle of apartments that characterise it as low dense area. There is a stream canal that flows through the eastern part of the area toward the fjord lake.

Scenario

Possible impacts

Since Ilsvikøra is a coastal mixed-residential place, therefore, highly probable to be flooded due to sea level rise. The melting ice due to climate change as a global factor and overflow of streams due to heavy rain and storm surge exerts local wind pressure is the main challenge.

A flood zone analysis done by Norges Vassdragsog Energidirektoret (NVE) shows that in the event of a 100 year flood, the buildings on Ilsvikøra are exposed at high sea levels, see figure 4 for these areas. For planning and construction, new establishments are essential, should be taken into account of floods causal factor due to sea level rise (NVE, 2021).

Although it is a slow process and would impact the whole community, and most of the first floors will be submerged under water. Eventually, during ice age, the salt is washed out from the soil, which makes vulnerable and unstable soil conditions collapse, which could be more detrimental due to sea level rise. In addition to this, the nearest industrial hazardous material will be washed out, and ecological disturbance can abruptly be ended in Ilsvikøra. Moreover, the major infrastructural damage to the building and residential premises could occur, and inaccessibility to the transportation system be posed.

Figure 4: The Vulnerable flood prone area (NVE, 2021)

Figure 5: Current Status Quo and Expected Sea Level Rise, Authors, Google Earth

Figure 6: 3D Illustration of the area flooded, Authors, Illustration

Methodology

In this report, the qualitative and quantitative methods adopted to collect the necessary information and data. The findings based on observation, stakeholder interviews, site analysis, literature reviews and an online survey.

Observational Method As our hypothetical case scenario correlated to flooding due to sea-level rise, it was pertinent to observe the site to identify and spot the probable risk zone. Observational scope led us to think broadly about vulnerability prediction. In Ilsvikøra, the mixed urban structures can be observableold wooden and semi shared apartments and buildings. Observation encouraged us to think how urgent and how well should we prepare in order to safeguarding the livelihood infrastructures.

Literature Review The several research case studies help us to ideate and conceptualize the effect of sea level rise and devastative impacts of flood. Several articles from online journals and the reconstruction and retrofitting hypothesis from US Housing ReportFederal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 2015 & 2019 edition and Green Infrastructure models from UN report and several research articles were influential to support this case study.

Furthermore, we also applied some concepts from the reading materials of existing curriculum.

Therefore, the availability of academic resources enables us to capture the status quo of Ilsvikøra.

Community Collection

Participation

&

Collaboration With Stakeholders & Peers

Trondheim Municipality has substantial resources but lacking cooperation with stakeholders from decision making (including spatial and nonspatial) to strategic planning. In our approach, we highlighted the possible exposures and detrimental causal impacts and invited and make possible collaboration with stakeholders from local to national level and proposes the interventions and goals. At the forefront-Trondheim municipality plays important role but national to local response authority, private organization such as ATB, NGOs and Humanitarian aids- Caritas, Red Cross Trondheim, Norwegian Radio Relay League, and Norwegian Church Aid etc., and Research and Education institution play and contribute for the safety of Ilsvikøra’s community.

Online Survey The survey was created and distributed for the purpose of getting a broader understanding of the knowledge of the local community when it comes to flood risk and what to do in a crisis. To get responses it was posted on a facebook group for Ilsvikøra. Only 15 people responded, this is generally not enough responses, but we decided to use the information we had anyway but with the awareness that we should have more.

The most important findings show that most people do not know what to in the case of a flood in their neighborhood and most did not have knowledge on what to do in an emergency during flooding.

Data

Online surveying tool used to collect information from the community regarding future flooding and their perspective thoughts. We prepared “Google Questionnaire” that shared with Ilsvikøra’s community “Facebook” page. This methodology were adopted due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s restriction.

Figure 7: Results from survey, Google Survey Sheet, See Appendix

Figure 8: Framework of methodological approach of Ilsvikøra’s contingency planning, Authors

Best Practices

Case studies- Netherlands South Holland

In the Netherlands large parts of the country is below sea level or the high-water levels of rivers and lakes. Approximately 60% of the country would be flooded regularly without the protection of dikes, dunes, and hydraulic structures. They have a long history of flooding and have capacitated with flood disaster management. Dike rings are some of the measurements used to protect the site from flooding. In South Holland, we find the largest dike ring in the Netherlands. The system for flood defense consists of earthen dikes along the rivers and sand dunes along the coast. The areas that are flood prone are divided into dike ring areas. These areas are protected against floods with a series of water defences such as dikes, sand dunes, hydraulic structures, and high ground. See figure 9 for safety standards for the various dike rings (Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Matthijs Kok and Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008)

accounted. These are indicated with dots. In this case study, they also found that making space for rivers can be a productive way to reduce the risk of flooding and decrease the flood’s consequences.

Other measures that increase the resilience include the construction of internal compartment dikes and evacuation plans (Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Matthijs Kok and Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008).

Figure 10: Overview of dike ring in South Holland (Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Matthijs Kok and Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008)

Rotterdam

Figure 9: Dike ring areas in the Netherlands and safety standards (Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Matthijs Kok and Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008)

South Holland is populated and includes cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Den Haag.

It is the largest and most densely populated area in the country. The figure 10 shows the area and the locations where flood scenario analyses were

Rotterdam is situated at the mouth of the “New Meuse” river, one of the stream channels in the delta formed by Rhine and Meuse’s rivers. This location along the river and the proximity to the sea makes the area vulnerable to flooding. See figure 11 for the area. While the area is a part of the dike systems that was illustrated in the South Holland case. It is also protected with build-up areas between the river and the dikes. These are usually mostly industrial/harbour areas that are elevated to some extent (Hans de Moel, Mathijs van Vliet and Aerts, 2014). In Rotterdam’s case study, the findings were that elevating buildings with 0.5 meters would reduce the total flood risk of the entire region by half. If the buildings were to be elevated with 1 meter it would remove the entire risk. This scenario only focuses on the protection of the buildings (Hans de Moel, Mathijs van Vliet and Aerts, 2014).

There are a series of other innovative dike designs used in Rotterdam that strengthen the safety and improve the quality of the urban space. This includes strategies for increasing the level of complexity and each of the four depicted in figure 12 (De Urbanisten, 2009-2010).

Figure 11: The study case area (Hans de Moel, Mathijs van Vliet and Aerts, 2014) Figure 11a: River Bed Side Area of Rotterdam (Royal Caribbean International, 2021)

Figure 12: Four strategies using dikes in Rotterdam (De Urbanisten, 2009-2010)

Identified Stakeholders A stakeholder is “Any person, group, or organization that can place a claim on the organization’s attention, resources or output, or is affected by that output” (Bryson, 2003). Based on this definition, we investigated all organizations, whether governmental or non-governmental, that are found at local, regional, national and international levels and who can promote spatial and non-spatial, qualitative and quantitative support, technical and materialistic information, and other forms of guidance during an emergency response and post-disaster event. Identifying stakeholders and analyzing them based on their interest and power or capacity for effective and efficient coordination and execution of responsibility enable successful response. In this project, the community and their respective members of Ilsvikøra are the main stakeholders from the local level who have high interest, followed by concerned bodies from Trondheim municipality and other special highly

supportive technical government organizations such as Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate (NVE).

The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning plays a vital role at the national level in preparing emergency response plans and providing relevant information to the county governor and the municipality. It also coordinates with the ministry of justice and the police.

Non-governmental organizations such as ATBtransport services, Caritas, the Norwegian Church Aid, and Red Cross Trondheim can be highly interested in humanitarian aids and coordinating between the government and vulnerable communities.

Figure 13: Stakeholder Mapping (Power-Interest Matrix)

Table 1: Stakeholders’ responsibilities and actions, Illustration-Authors

Contingency Planning

Implemention Plan

Response Strategy

Short Term Plan (0-5 years)

Response strategy involves developing appropriate planning responses. It serves to define objectives and achieve them while acting as a bridge between the scenario and the subsequent plans (Choularton, 2007). Based on our given hypothetical scenario of expected flood hazard due to sea-level rise in the coastal residential neighbourhood of Ilsvikøra in the absence of disaster management authority (DMA), it is crucial to have a clear uncertainty coping approach to be prepared. So that it is possible to save life and livelihood of the community. Hence in the state of known hazard and unknown means to mitigate the hazard, the ‘Unknown technology but known goal approach’ that has been discussed in the report which (Christensen, 1985) will be utilized in our response strategy. Hence, revising the organizational structure of existing DMA found at the municipal level and establishing an additional well-organized DMA sub-centre at the Ilsvikøra neighbourhood. Based on the knowledge gained from best practices worldwide, Spatial and nonspatial interventions that span up to 50 years will be executed in three different levels: community level, local, and national (see preparedness plan for details). All spatial interventions undertaken by individuals and flood risk compensations will be covered by the disaster fund due to sufficient resources. We also identify all stakeholders and define who participates in response actions during three phases of the hazard (pre hazard, during hazard and post hazard). In the post hazard phase, the DMA’s weakness and strength will be assessed and corrected along with a continued revision of the stakeholders. Overall lessons learned during the hazard phase will be practiced to get prepared for the next uncertain situation.

1. Community Response Strategy: In the disaster response strategy, if the community itself is resilient, it can reduce risk vulnerability.

In other words, the livelihood should have to be proactive rather than reactive (Kartez and Lindell, 1987; World Health Organization, 2021).The initial tasks will be to keep updating about Sea Level Rise (SRL), understand the climatic conditions and raising awareness to the community about the flood hazard and how to be safe. They should be tuned to the news and daily weather updates from National Meteorological Institute. The community should find an alternative energy in case of electricity outage so that they can follow updates from their mobile and other devices. Moreover, the community should be interactive and willing to modify their building to the standard that can cope with the expected floods.

(Picture Credit: Authors, Location: Ilsvikora)

2. Evacuation Plan Measures: If the water level comes above the residential floor level, the evacuation team should be on the spot for emergency response. The Disaster management authority established will do survey about inhabitants along with other professional stakeholders. These will help them to prioritize the vulnerable groups and take the necessary actions. It is possible to shelter the people at a higher elevation point found next to the action area where flood is unlikely to happen.

For instance, Mollebakken kindergarten and the Thon Hotel Prinsen found in the city centre are the two places that can be considered.

3.

Establishing Disaster Management Subcentre/ Urban Living Lab (ULL): Since we lack disaster management authority, we need DMA at the Ilsvikøra neighbourhood level.

This team comprises of urban planners, engineers, and architects who can assess the hypothetical flood scenario and delineate the risk measurement with the community. They closely work with community and other stakeholders. These teams are supervised by the Trondheim municipality disaster management authority. They are mainly responsible for climate action and risk reduction, training the community, emergency response and coordinating the overall process based on knowledges to visualize the causal hazards and better preparedness plan with expertise.

Medium Term Plan (5-25 years) 4. Dike Structures: In our consecutive flood resistance plan, we have proposed the dike structures near to the sea stream. Since, in the site’s context, the existing wooden building and semi-structured apartments, and row houses belong, dike is then considered to function at the costal line and restrain the infrastructures. This dike is dimensioned in-depth up to 2m because not to obstruct the natural view of the sea.

This dike is designed with mixed concept whose one side is step rise, where people can sit also.

Alternatively, if the water level rises, these steps will indicate taking the necessary action to protect the community line. In its slope portion, we have considered integrating some porous materials into which water seeps in, and water channel is connected under the dike. These waters can alternatively be used ineffectively for green infrastructures.

Figure 14: Conceptual Dike Structructure & Combination of Green Patches at Ilsvikøra, Illustrations- Authors

Figure 15: Infiltration and Storm Surge Illustration During Heavy Rain fall at Ilsvikøra, Illustrations- Authors

2. Maintenance and interior modification of buildings: In Ilsvikøra, since we have adequate resources, one way of keeping the building out of flood is maintaining the interior parts of the selected building and floor elevation. Reconstruction is not po ssible in every building because there are some wooden buildings exist rather possible to heightening above Flood Level Elevation (FLE).

While in the other sides, the floor height shifting above FLE would reduce both utilities and structural damage.

Figure 17: Elevating the lowest floor in wooden building (FEMA, 2015)

In the above picture, if the floor level lies below the BFE, could cause structural damages and indoor too. But extra shear wall with flood opening vents and elevating the floor height will save the entire structure. If flood happens, the shear wall will serve against the water level pressure (Hydrostatic Pressure). And water can be released out through these vents.

Figure 16: Basement filling before and after flood (FEMA, 2015)

In figure 16 shows the water in the lowest floor could cause damage, but filling the lowest floor area with compacted soils refrain from floodwater in the apartment and lifting the lowest floor will cause minor damage.

Figure 18: Elevated floors above BFE line and shortening the floor height (FEMA, 2015)

Long Term Plan (Upto 50 years)

Figure 19: Flood Wet Proof Mechanism (FEMA, 2015)

Despite heightening, floors can be wet proof with vinyl cover overlaid of the concrete slab. Gypsum panel can be attached to the wall against damage too. Instead of a wooden door, metal door can be considered. See figure 19.

The temperature rise and greenhouse gas emission are pressing every day towards disastrous events.

In relation to, man-made deforestation and exploitation of land put in danger, such as sea level rise caused flooding and storms, etc. In Ilsvikøra, the community needs long-term management plan for flood risk. Due to rapid globalization and natural resource exhaustion produces carbon contents of approximately 4.4 Gt. CO2, responsible for such occurrence (Ashley M. Broadbent et al., 2019; IUCN, 2016). To underneath this flood risk, the restoration of ecosystem and ecotechnology should be considered to down the local temperature (IUCN, 2016). Therefore, the application of Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) will reduce the vulnerability in Ilsvikøra. According to IUCN report, BGI can reduce future hazard in many ways. For example, Natural green space and park in the coastal part can keep away from flood risk. In Ilsvika, for achieving the long flood mitigation strategy, more green patches and plantations will enhance the soil porosity level and incre ase the water absorption optimality.

This process is known as ecosystem engineering model, which includes the afforestation and more consideration of green patches. See figure 20.

Figure 20: Natural Solution- transition from restoration to creation BGI (Kartverket, 2021)

Operational Plan From a project management perspective, Leo Weber (2019) indicates that Project, specifically on a team level, without an operational plan in place, will lead the team members to lose sight of their tasks, skyrocket the budgets and ensure pandemonium. Hence, “Ensuring that sufficient administration, financial, human resources, information and telecommunications and other support are available is critical to an emergency response” (Choularton 2007). We can understand that a solid and clear operational plan leads to the successful execution of emergency response.

This operational support plan is detrimental in developing standard procedures, revising and shaping the existing support structure to effectively address all scale, magnitude, and frequency of emergency response in our scenario where we lack disaster management authority.

The operational supporting entities encompass all necessary stakeholders mapped and their cooperation. Figure 22 illustrated under the preparedness plan, shows the hierarchy and flow of information among the main actors during emergency response for the clear flow of information among those supportive organs. If things are out of the hand of national capacity, the international organizations may take part in this operation as they are indicated in figure 21.

Figure 21: Framework of Operational Support Plan and Actions taken by Stakeholders, Illustration Authors

Preparedness Plan “Disaster preparedness planning involves identifying organizational resources, determining roles and responsibilities, developing policies and procedures and planning activities in order to reach a level of preparedness to be able to respond timely and effectively to a disaster should one occur.”

(IFRC, Disaster Preparedness Training Programme, 2000). In this section of the contingency plan, we will focus on identifying actions that can be taken on three stages in emergency and long term responses. They are actions that can be taken at a community level, municipality level and national level. However, the collective effort and collaboration among them are vital to improve response and adapt to the actual situation during the event as this preparedness plan is planned in uncertainty.

Community level

Preliminary emergency response action that the community can take would help them protect their home, family and take nessesary precautions when flooding is predicted in their area is detrimental. The community can save their lives, precious belongings and their homes from flood damage if prepared. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), an agency of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in collaboration with the national flood insurance program, described steps of action that individuals could take prior to flooding hazard event and during the event. These steps include elevating and anchoring utilities, waterproofing the basement, clearing debris from gutters, and elevating furniture and staying alert by monitoring local news and weather reports and alternative communication plans (FEMA, 2015). Hence, we adopted those tool kits in the case of the Ilsvikøra case.

1. Interior modification and anchor utilities Making changes to existing buildings in Elevating floor through either basement infill or elevating the lowest interior floor and anchoring their critical utilities, including electric panels, propane tanks, sockets, wiring, appliances and heating systems above the expected flood elevation. Since modifying a home requires extreme care, permit and also technical experts, engaging with design professionals and engineers at the municipality is vital.

2. Wet flood proofing basement Preventing structural damage of houses from hydrostatic pressure of flood due to waves and storm

surge through allowing water into parts of a home.

This can be done through one or a combination of methods mentioned in the implementation plan based on building condition and its appropriateness which is handled in a clear consensus of the owner and building regulations and engineering professionals from the municipality.

3. Elevate or move precious belongings Preparing a place on the highest floor of their home where they can move their precious belongings during events.

4. Stay alerted via local news and weather report Following the national and local weather forecast daily via different media and preparing safety equipment like a floating vest and inflatable balloon boats in case of constant water level rise events otherwise, it is recommended to stay where they are and wait for the flood rescue team.

5. Preparing alternative communication plan Preparing a backup power supply in the event of an electric power outage, solar energy.

Municipality level 1. Blue-green infrastructure The green areas we have within the site will be maintained as sponge or catchment area that can prevent floods by absorbing or infiltrating during heavy rainfall and storm surges. The soil type and best practice from the case study will be identified to enhance the water percolation and efficiency.

To realize this, landscape architects, engineers, biologists, urban planner and the community work closely in implementation and maintenance over time.

2. Dike As the intervention site is located on the coast, it is necessary to have physical barriers along the coast that can prevent the expected sea-level rise and storm surge. Based on the best practice from the Netherlands, the dike will have a lower height ranging from 1 to 2 meter to avoid view obstruction to Fjord, and it will also have a wider pad that can serve as a levee and other functions. The dike should also be given an extra resistance factor and deep foundation from the strata to respond to possible quick clay landslides.

3. Building maintenance and rehabilitation In the event of extreme storm surge and heavy rainfall, the ground floor building can experience a certain flood level. Hence the municipality can

establish an expert team from different professions who prepares appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation techniques in consultation with the community.

collaborating transportation private company.

4. Building regulations Build regulations that prohibit additional development of residential buildings in the action area, regulations regarding the necessity to comply with physical intervention in flood mitigation measures taken on residential buildings listed herein and adopting and adapting the necessary innovative alternatives over time.

5. Establishing DMA sub-centre The municipality should establish a stand by disaster management team that organizes the operation during emergency events and coordinates between the community and DMA at the municipal level. This team can also have rescue teams for emergency response. Teams members are given training, and they are run under the disaster management office in Trondheim.

6. Evacuation plan Preparing Emergency shelter sites nearby. Thon Hotel Prinsen and Mollenbakken kindergarten can be considered as an emergency evacuation places where the people can stay for certain days.

The municipality should also Plan and publicize evacuation routes.

7. Determine chains of command and communication procedures During flood events, a clear and coordinated chain of command is essential in rescue operations and possessing all necessary communication equipment in emergency operations. Hence the arrangement and coordination of disaster management structure should be clear, as shown in figure 22.

8. Train response personnel from the community and educate people about what to do in an emergency case. this can take improve the responce effectiveness during disaster and pro hazard.

9. Determining mode of supply and emergency response transporting system On land and water transportation systems are necessary in flood hazard response operations.

Preparing a Motor-driven boat in the area, where the bus cannot travel, with all its necessary spare parts and operators back and forth during the emergency. For this AtB can be the main

Figure 22: Generalized hierarchy of command chain of disaster management authority (Vademecum for Civil Protection - European Commission, 2017).

National level 1. Mapping flood and warning system Regular updating and enhancing flood mapping and early warning system capacity should be taken periodically and monitoring the precision and accuracy. Apart from that, Introducing Simple and appropriate technology that alerts the community will also help to avoid loss of life and minimize rescue operation and subsequent chaos.

2. Policy adoption Policy adoption regarding the sea level rise mitigation measurements.

3. Political pressure on decision Political pressure on decision on de-stressing factors such as global climate change and decreasing local carbon emissions.

Budget

It is the last element of the contingency plan where we determine the cost of preparedness and responsive activities. In our case, since the municipality has substantial financial resources, some funds are allocated to subsidize the community in adapting and maintaining their buildings. The maintenance aims to decrease the flood risk while those who will face structural and property damage will get compensation from the national disaster fund. Though, budget is dependent on time, situation and inflation, the preliminary budget allocation is summarized as follows based on the actions that require low, medium and large finance. See table 2 for the budget.

Table 2: Budget description overview, Source: Authors

Discussion and limitations Conclusion In the chosen area with our given scenario, floods caused due to sea-level rise, substantial resources and no disaster management authority, there has been created a contingency plan for Ilsvikøra. The plan is in different stages, short term, medium term and long term with different measures. This was done through analysis and research. This report also addresses how to collaborate and work together both from the stakeholder's side and community engagement planning.

We did make some mistakes in this project, for instance in our scenario the area is supposed to be a low-density area, but we managed to choose an area that in reality is high density, at least relative to a Norwegian context. We decided to stick with it since we had started the work and also the case is hypothetical.

During this process the group encountered some challenges. Communication problems and different ways of working have been challenging. In the end we figured out which platform (social mediaWhatsapp, Gmail, Microsoft Teams and Google docs) was easiest to reach each other on and how to work together.

The COVID- 19 situation has put some of us in quarantine during the process and we have been forced to do some of the work through online meetings. Because we have been living with restrictions for over a year now. We are used to digital meetings, but it still puts a strain on the work. We also had some problems reaching out to the local community, the answer was in a google survey, but it was unfortunately hard to get enough responses.

A disaster such as floods can be devastating for the local community, the infrastructure, the nature and the buildings around. We are aware that due to climate changes, the sea level is rising, which needs to be considered when planning.

This report represents a plan that should help with planning for a flood due to sea-level rise. Based on our given scenario the contingency plan should strengthen the area of Ilsvikøra and make it a more resilient neighbourhood.

With the help of the local community through an online survey, we learned that the community does not know what to do in the case of a flood and how to cope with the crises since they haven't experienced the hazard before. This was important information especially in the absence of disaster management authority to plan, and it was also important to us to include the people who actually live and have their lives there. Thus, We implemented information and courses to the locals into our plan. We believe that with the help of different measurements and the local community engagement, Ilsvikøra will be a resilient, safe and good place to live for everyone. We can never stop threats to our society, but we can plan for it and be prepared for when a crisis happens.

Figure 23: Site Location- Picture Ilsvikøra (Ilsvika, 2021)

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Figure list

Figure 1: Picture of site Figure 2: Global average absolute sea level change from 1880- 2015 Figure 3: Location map and site context Figure 4: The vulnerable flood prone area Figure 5: Authors, google earth Figure 6: 3D illustration of the area flooded Figure 7: Results from survey Figure 8: Framework of methodological approach of Ilsvikøras contingency planning Figure 9: Dike ring areas in the Netherlands and safety standards Figure 10: Overview of dike ring in South Holland

Figure 11: The study case area Figure 11a: River bed side area of Rotterdam Figure 12: Four strategies using dikes in Rotterdam Figure 13: Stakeholder mapping (power interest matrix) Figure 14: Conceptual dike structure & combination of green patches at Ilsvikøra Figure 15: Infiltration and storm surge illustration during heavy rain fall at Ilsvikøra Figure 16: Basement filling before and after flood Figure 17: Elevating the lowest floor in wooden building Figure 18: Elevated floors about BFE line and shortening the floor height Figure 19: Flood wet proof mechanism Figure 20: Natural solution- transition from restoration to creation BGI Figure 21: Framework of operational support plan and actions taken by stakeholders Figure 22: Generalized hierarchy of command chain of disaster management authority Figure 23: Site Location- Picture Ilsvikøra

Table list

Table 1: Stakeholders’ responsibilities and actions, Illustration

Table 2: Budget description overview

Appendix Survey Resposne 1.How many years have you lived in this neighborhood?

2. Do you cooperate when something happens in your neighborhood?

3. Have you ever experienced flood hazards in your lifetime?

4. Do you think the area will be flooded due to sea level rise in the future?

5. Do you know what to do in case of flood hazard in your area?

6. Do you have awareness of how to do during an emergency due to flooding?

7. Expecting a flood scenario in the future, what do you think should be done now to avoid a possible disaster?

Contingency Plan for Nedre Bakklandet

Group 2

Atiqullah Faizy Beatrice Charlotte Berg Sæthre Abdul-Jelilu Seidu Emilie Klaussen Johansen

Abstract

Introduction

A contingency plan with a response mechanism is prepared to reduce destruction and avoid the event of a flood due to heavy rainfall. This paper discusses how a community-based approach deals during a flooding crisis with possessing an institutional disaster management authority and depending more on volunteer activities and humanitarian aid organizations. By applying community engagement methods, the assignment explores theories of hazard, coordination among various implementing partners, adapting best practices within the country and several countries around the globe that has a successful responsive strategy.

Urban flooding is a serious and growing development challenge. Against the backdrop of demographic growth, urbanization trends, and climate change, the causes of floods are shifting, and their impacts are accelerating. This large and evolving challenge means that far more needs to be done by policymakers to better understand and more effectively manage existing and future risks. Despite considerable efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters, floods remain the most devastating natural hazard in the world (World Bank, 2012). In the future, flood risk is projected to further increase in many regions due to the effects of global warming and an increased concentration of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas (Bouwer et al. 2010).

As well as the paper will reflect on the role of humanitarian aid organizations and relying on ancillary stakeholders’ technical expertise to help Bakklandet Community and provide effective responses. Throughout various adaptive and integrated interventions, the desktop research argues on approaches to engage neighborhood residents, volunteer protective measures, capacity building programs, and the establishment of rescue groups. The paper will discuss on results of these interventions aiming to strengthen community resilience towards flood and managing crisis with limited financial resources. The topic of the assignment will conclude by elaborating the importance of the aforementioned interventions and reflect on the given hypothetical scenario about Trondheim owning disaster management authority but limited financial resources and prone to floods due to heavy rainfall.

Figure 1. Our focus area; Nedre Bakklandet (self-prodiced)

In the subject AAR5220 Urban Contingency Planning and Practice, we are looking further into urban flooding by preparing a contingency plan for a hypothetical scenario based in Trondheim.

The contingency plan will concentrate on reducing potential risk in the long- and short term by preparing the community for the potential for floods due to heavy rainfall and taking preventative measures to create resilience to future floods. The area selected is Bakklandet as seen in figure 1. By conducting networks between diverse stakeholders and bring knowledge about how to cope with natural hazards to the community, the resulting plan will provide guidance on how to react both before, during, and after the flooding has occurred.

Scenario

The Hypothetical Scenario for this group assignment of AAR5220 Urban Contingency Practice and Planning Course explores Trondheim as a very low-density city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. Floods caused because of heavy rainfalls is the main potential threat of the hazard to be discussed in this task, however, flooding would raise the level of water in Nidelva River that runs through the area and flows to the ocean in saltwater, but the case study will not focus on those impacts.

The World Bank, 2012 guidebook on integrated urban flood risk management explains the probability of flooding model as a sound understanding of the likelihood and occurrence of a flood hazard which is a fundamental step in dealing with flooding risk (The world bank, 2012). Furthermore, the model conceptualized the risk of flooding into four stages as in Figure 2 below.

In the scenario given, it is described that Trondheim municipality maintaining limited financial resources but has a disaster management authority.

Having said that, we think a community-based approach and a variety of volunteer activities to be implemented in coordination with municipal human resources and involvement of multiple stakeholders within the local and regional communities, there is a lot of room for improvements.

Methodology

The major aspects and overall purpose of the entire assignment for Bakklandet Area and the Cultural Heritage Buildings along Nidelva river, which is prone to floods in this joint group effort is to prepare an Urban Contingency Plan protecting the neighborhood. This is to say that how a community is responding to a natural disaster with limited financial resources and reliant on more volunteer activities. To develop this hypothetical scenario, our methodology encompasses both primary and secondary data that has been used effectively in

Figure 2. Pathway, Receptor Mode (World Bank, 2012)

writing this paper. The gathered information and approach contain general observation, exploratory talks, key informant interviews and more importantly communicating with stakeholders in the area. In this fieldwork, we are assessing “Bakklandet” neighborhood to prepare a practical approach of a contingency plan to protect and realize the flood challenges for this urban community. The secondary sources include extensive document reviews, books, journals, articles, and relevant research reports on best practices applied in the flood-affected countries in the world with a focus on community-based approaches.

• The initial method adopted was direct observations in order to be familiar with the area, focus on how the neighborhood is vulnerable towards the flood, and photos of the site have been taken.

• The methods of studies and data collection varied due to the pandemic outbreak and a mix of both digital and physical interviews were undertaken to involve stakeholders in Bakklandet.

• Exploratory Talks: After observing the area with the group we decided to arrange digital platform exploratory talks to hear about the neighborhood’s positive and negative aspects of Bakklandet from their perspective. We have been briefed through the area by Bakklandet community members. They talked about the history of the place, the events, the needs, and some issues on how the flood crisis is dealt with in coordination with the Department of Climate Change Disaster Management Authority of Trondheim municipality.

The outcome of the findings through building networks with stakeholders, volunteer groups, document review, methods and approaches applied in the fieldwork and using digital platform to communicate in the phase of writing the assignment contributed significantly to fulfill the expected result from this hypothetical scenario.

Theory Hazard and Vulnerability What defines a natural disaster? Kelman et al.

(2016) define disasters= hazard x vulnerability, which means that a disaster happens as a combination of hazard and vulnerability. Hazards are the harmful event happening while the vulnerability is defined as the tendency to be harmed by the hazard. Being unable to deal with the consequences of hazards or being unable to protect oneself from them and stopping them from reappearing and making the same disturbances to structures creates vulnerability. People can also be unaware of the hazards they are facing or do not have the capacity to do something about it that contributes to a continued vulnerability. Kelman et al (2016) defines disasters as unnatural and show this by explaining how a hazard is only a disaster if it affects vulnerable people or infrastructure. For example, flooding can be good for the soil along the riverside, providing it with more nutrition and important minerals. The same flood becomes a hazard if human or their infrastructure like housing is located there (Kelman, et al., 2016). What makes an event a disaster is therefore the value people give infrastructures, lives, and other systems.

Since Bakklandet is regulated as a cultural heritage consideration zone and many houses is assessed antiquarian values of variating degrees this gives

the area a high value. Therefore, a hazard like heavy rainfall leading to floods combined with the vulnerability created because of the human infrastructure with high antiquarian value and it being a residential area will create a disaster.

Involving communities- Local Knowledge Our approach will be community-based meaning that local knowledge will be used to best understand what inhabitants in the area experience as challenging and best practices under the event of flooding due to heavy rainfall. Corburn (2003) defines local knowledge as knowledge that distinguishes itself from ‘expert/professional’ knowledge by some factors. One of them is that local knowledge is held by people in a local context, which in this case is community members that live in the area. They get the knowledge from long experience living in the community and the knowledge gets its credibility by the public narrative in the area (Corburn, 2003). By learning from the community and their problem statements we as planners can better see and understand the area and its needs before, during, and after a flood. For example, there can be a lack of escape routes in the buildings, which planners wouldn’t be aware of as a problem before residents expressed this problem.

Site analysis

Our focus area is Bakklandet, with a spesific focus on the area called Nedre Bakklandet. Figure 3 shows the choosen area.

Location

Based on the given scenario our selected focus area is Bakklandet, located south-east of Trondheim city center. Here we focus on Nedre Bakklandet, located between the bridges Gamle Bybro and Bakke Bridge. In this area, the streets Nedre Bakklandet and Nygata are located. Nidelva passes on the west side of the area, making it exposed to flooding today, but also in the future climate with more heavy rainfall. On the other side of Nidelva is Kjøpmannsgata which together with Bakklandet gives the characteristic piers along the river. Often thought of as one of the oldest parts of Trondheim, Bakklandet was made as an expansion of the city center in the 17th century (Trøndelag historiske Norge, n.d).

History and cultural heritage Bakklandet with the treehouses from the 18th century, the mixed-use functions, and the narrow streets has been Trondheim’s first suburb. Due to its nearness to Nidelva, industries like shipyards and rope yard emerged. Housings and stores came after this in places where they naturally fitted. In the 1960s, the area was threatened with remediation because the municipality wanted to make a new highway to the city center (Bakklandet.info, 2011). This sparked big enthusiasm to preserve and rehabilitate the houses, and today Bakklandet is an appreciated part of the city and a tourist attraction. The area is under the cultural heritage consideration zone. This means that Bakklandet’s cultural landscape should be contained, and any proposals for changing or creating new housing or physical structures must be like the existing environment. It also needs approval by the municipality and the cultural heritage authority (Trondheim kommune, 2021b).

Figure 3 Street Names

Important infrastructure The Norwegian Directorate for Cultural Heritage divides buildings into three classes based on their antiquarian value. This indicates to what degree the buildings should be preserved and changes should keep the original characteristic of the buildings (Trondheim kommune, 2021b). The divided classes are, A: very high antiquarian value,

Figure 4 The antiquarian value of buildings located in Nedre Bakklandet (self-produced based on (Trondheim kommune, 2021a)

B: high antiquarian value, C: antiquarian value.

Based on these values, the plan and building act § 31-1 states that the municipality must see that all rehabilitation, restoration, and changes on buildings are keeping the historical, architectural, and cultural distinctiveness (Trondheim kommune, 2021b). In Nedre Bakklandet street, there are 85 buildings, some contain docks. 39 buildings are characterized as class C, 20 are in class B, and 1 building is classified as A. There are 30 buildings in Nygata. Here one building is in class A, 10 buildings are in class B, and 10 are in class C, as seen in figure 4 (Trondheim kommune, 2021a).

The ‘Gamle bybro’, translated into old city bridge, is also given very high antiquarian value (class A) while Bakkebru is given high antiquarian value (class B) (Trondheim kommune, 2021a).

Climate in Trondheim Trøndelag county

and

The annual precipitation in Trøndelag county is expected to increase by approximately 20% towards 2100, and the number of precipitation days with heavy rainfall is also expected to increase (Miljøenheten, n.d.). This will result in more surface water, flooding, landslides, and slush flows. The increased precipitation can also cause erosion, increasing the quick clay landslide danger. The annual temperature is also expected to increase by approximately 4 °C, increasing at the most in winter, causing a longer season of wet weather (Miljøenheten, n.d.)

Figure 5 Map showing sea level rise at Nedre Bakklandet (Kartverket, 2021)

Flooding in the area Our focus is mainly on flooding due to heavy rainfall, but it is worth mentioning that large parts of the area will be affected by sea-level rise in the next century. Figure 5 is a map showing the sea-level rise in Trondheim in 2090, 53 cm above today’s levels.

The water and sewage system in the area is old and it is a priority for Trondheim municipality to renew this (Kommunalteknikk, 2013). Increased surface water will lead to capacity problems in the sewage system and as a principle, the municipality has a strategy of slowing water and storing water before it reaches the water and sewage system.

These regulations and principles would be easier to incorporate into new developments.

Figure 6 shows areas at risk of flooding in the catchment area. It shows areas with recesses in the

Figure 6 Areas at risk of flooding in the catchement area (Trondheim Kommune, 2021C)

terrain and flood paths without working manholes.

Figure 7 below shows areas based on GIS-based hydrological modeling of where water will flow and where it will accumulate (blue spots). This is modeled after what is considered heavy rain (more than 20mm in one hour) and is therefore highly relevant for our scenario.

Figure 7 The map shows areas based on GIS-based hydrological modeling of where water will flow and where it will accumulate (blue spots) (Rød, 2020)

Figure 8 Map showing quick clay landslide hazard (NVE, 2021)

Quick clay Quick clay is common in Trondheim as many parts are situated below the marine level. The marine level is the present elevation of where the sea level was at the end of the last ice age and the melting of the ice layer led to clay sedimentation in marine environments in saltwater (NGI, 2021).

The salt made the clay particles form a highly unstable structure and when it is overloaded, it will collapse. This is highly relevant for our area of study at Bakklandet, as in most of the area the quick clay landslide hazard is classified as high, as can be seen in Figure 8.

The quick clay landslide hazard is an overall assessment of the probability of a landslide based on ground conditions, topography, erosion, and flooding. As it is the salt in the clay that preserves the structure increased flooding and precipitation can wash out the salt, leading to a higher risk of quick clay landslides.

Figure 9 showing little green structure for infiltration

Stakeholders Mapping Based on the stakeholder-issue interrelationship and in relation to influence and power interest diagram, our direct beneficiaries would be the inhabitants living in Bakklandet area, sports organizations, restaurants, and governmental institutions located close by the focus area.

The assignment scenario provides limited financial resources but possesses a municipal disaster management authority. Therefore, the focus will be on volunteer activities, a wider range of coordination between volunteer and humanitarian aid organizations for receiving funds and supports, the establishment of rescue teams, and a full community-based approach with receiving technical knowledge from Trondheim institutional stakeholders. The stakeholders mentioned here play significant roles in the event of flooding and based on their position, they fall under the category of less important-more influence and more important-less influence to protect Bakklandet Community.

We categorize our stakeholders in Bakklandet, the community itself, volunteer humanitarian aid organizations, and the local government. The residents in the households of Bakklandet with the surge of effort to rebuild their affected area are governed by the Community Association which is responsible in the leadership to assigned various groups and arrange responsive activities in the event of flooding. In the Norwegian context figure 9 shows involvement of government agencies.

The volunteer organization in the region with many members would be a gifted asset for the community of Bakklandet to coordinate and plan their needs. Volunteer organizations such as Red Cross, Caritas Trondheim, and Christian Intercultural Work (KIA) are actively involved in a variety of activities, and they are recognized as an implementing and supporting partner for the local government. In addition, a solidarity rescue group will be formed that people from surrounding municipalities willingly be part of the team. As soon as the immediate flooding message is disseminated the hundreds of substantial anonymous solidarity

Figure 10 Institutional framework for flood management in Norway. Source (Næss, et al. 2005).

members will arrive.

Last but not least the governmental institutions we aim to involve and use their technical expertise for awareness and providing capacity-building workshops for the residents in Bakklandet are Trondheim Municipality, Water Management Directorate, and the Norwegian Cultural Heritage Management Authorities. The Department of Disaster Management Authority in the municipality will provide awareness training, Water Management Department with their capabilities will monitor the weather forecast, water levels, and assist the community in disseminating the immediate aftermath of the flooding-triggered hazards. Media coverage will also play an effective role in informing people of the latest news updates. The department for cultural heritage protection can mediate and influence the policy-making level to coordinate and lead the process of response mechanism during the event of flooding. In addition, schools, hotels, and public compounds will serve as evacuation centers until the areas are restored.

Best Studies

Practices-Case

Jamalpur, Bangladesh

The Jamalpur, Bangladeshi case documents the participatory process and the growing contribution of disaster risk reduction to local development planning. It is prone to floods due to torrential

Figure 11 Stakeholder-issue interrelationship diagram

rainfall, inundation by the Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers, an inadequate embankment, a malfunctioning drainage system, and settlement on the flood-prone lands for the urban residents who cannot afford to buy land in the city. The city has a disaster management plan but with limited resources (Lim.B.B, 2015).

The Strengthening Household Ability to Respond Development Opportunities (SHOUHARDO) project was established in 2005 and implemented with financial assistance from USAID. The program was to build the capacity of targeted communities and institutions to prepare for, mitigate and respond to disasters. With the project implementation, interventions at the city and community levels were initiated by building self-sustaining institutions on disaster management at both city and community levels. Baseline information was used to assess the community’s vulnerability in terms of living standards, livelihood, and income to gain a comprehensive profile of loss and vulnerability within the community with regards to floods (Lim.B.B, 2015). Police stations, hospitals, mosques, schools, evacuation centers, roads, and bridges were among the identified critical facilities, identified the resources available to the community that can be used in disaster risk management (Lim.B.B, 2015).

Impacts on the Community: Through the participatory approach, the Jamalpur

stakeholders worked together to meet the joint objectives actions, and planning on DRR. The result was a systematic assessment of the vulnerability of critical lifelines to floods. The hazard analysis was focused on determining where risk consideration areas were and how they should be prioritized (Lim.B.B, 2015).

Community members held meetings to explore mitigation opportunities that could potentially lower vulnerability and reduce disaster impacts.

They identified and evaluated their existing capacity in terms of available resources. The plan now serves as a guide for the city council on making decisions regarding allocating funds and prioritizing DRR activities. Flood Forecasting, Emergency Operations Centers and early warning system were established under the existing institutional mechanism for flood (Lim.B.B, 2015).

Augustenborg, Malmö During the 1980s, Augustenborg was an area of social and economic decline and was frequently flooded by an overflowing drainage system.

Between 1998 and 2002, the area was regenerated which resulted in physical infrastructure changes.

The community has a disaster management plan with limited resources.

The regeneration efforts in Augustessnborg started in the 1990s and developed into the Ekostaden (Eco-city) project, which was to create a more socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable neighborhood. (Haghighatafshar et al, 2018).

Challenge The Augustenborg neighborhood has suffered from annual flooding in the late 1990s, caused by the old drainage system being unable to cope with the combination of rainwater run-off, household wastewater, and pressure from other parts of the city. The resulting flooding was leading to damaging underground garages and basements, and restricted access to local roads and footpaths.

(Haghighatafshar et al, 2018).

Measures The WSDU integrates stormwater, to protect existing natural features and ecological processes, maintain natural hydrologic behavior of catchments, and match the natural water runoff regime as closely as possible.

Reducing hardened, impervious surfaces and accurately design drainage of urban spaces, in combination with the use of previous roads, penetrable concrete, and water passing pavements helps to enhance the infiltration of stormwater in underlying surface, reducing runoff into sewerage

Figure 12 Flood-affected people get on a boat to cross a stream in Jamalpur, Bangladesh (Source: REUTERS/ Mohammad Ponir Hossain, 2020)

systems and urban spaces and attenuating flood peaks (Lim.B.B, 2015).

Townsville, Australia

Just as the disaster management strategies of many developed countries, Australia has had its disaster management strategies shifted from reactive strategies to more proactive strategies. That is a change in thinking that involves the participation of the public and especially the communities and neighborhoods that are vulnerable to these risks (Pearce, 2003). The Australia Risk Management Standard highlights that risk management is the framework for the gradual application of policies, procedures, and practices to the tasks of identifying, analyzing, evaluating, treating, and monitoring risk (Australian Standards Associations, 2001).

By implication, at the local level, the bottomup approach policy serves as the vehicle for the implementation of mitigation strategies (Pearce, 2003).

A fair amount of knowledge has been gathered from Australia that the inclusion of communities in the planning of disaster management is very crucial to the success of the plan and Townsville in Australia, is used as a case worth studying. The March 2019 flooding in Townsville in Queensland, consisting of low dense neighborhood, has proven the importance of community and its inclusion in the disaster planning stages. The shift in disaster

management strategies from reactive to proactive approach was noticed, where top-down planning for communities is now planning with communities (Akavarapu et al, 2019). A strong emphasis is now placed in policy on working and relating with the communities and their networks to disaster planning approaches (Bergin, 2019).

Findings from best practices

If a city wishes to engage the local stakeholders in disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, it should consider tapping local agencies for collaboration on major flood protection mitigation. Any city can strengthen its institutional capacities and implement practical DRR actions by themselves.

The key is to include DRR into mandated routine operations such as the provision of basic services, land-use planning, and development control (Lim.B.B, 2015).

The success of these measures is increased by the involvement of local stakeholder networks from the private, public, and voluntary sectors as that did not just ensure the ownership of outcomes of decisions but also helped in budgeting. In Malmö, for example, the resources did not only come from the municipality but also from private individuals and NGOs including a housing company (Lim.B.B, 2015).

Figure 13 Children collect water from a well in Jamalpur, Bangladesh. Flood caused by heavy rains has seriously affected some parts of Bangladesh. (Xinhua, 2020)

CONTINGENCY PLAN Response Strategy A response strategy is developed in advance of a risk scenario happening. The purpose is to use it as a guiding tool to develop responses to respond to risk based on our specified scenario. These will form the main objectives and the details will be further specified in the implementation plan.

Based on our scenario and approaches our main objectives will be: Raising awareness and building a resilient community • Seeing as our approach is community-based and we have limited financial resources, an important aspect is building a resilient community at Nedre Bakklandet. The local community has the knowledge and to utilize this we need to spread information and raise awareness. The best way to do this would be through networking and by establishing a community response association. This

will provide a bottom-up approach, where important stakeholders and volunteers can exchange experience and information.

Natural flood mitigation strategies • A cost-efficient way of involving the community and at the same time raising awareness can be to promote measures that the members of the community can take on their private properties.

These measures should focus on the threestep strategy of slowing water, storing water, and increasing infiltration in the soil. Green structure and water basins for example are cost-efficient and do not require investments in larger infrastructure. This would also relieve some of the water reaching the water and sewage systems. This is also in line with surface water being handled above ground and private gardens and properties are a big part of this (Miljømetropolen, 2012). This should be planned according to catchment areas.

Implementation Plan

The implementation plan is trying to show how and what kinds of responses will be structured

and implemented in the contingency plan. It’s here divided into short-term implementations and implementations that will be ongoing projects in the long term to prevent floods. This is also mentioned in Figur14. Emergency response to the event of flooding is mentioned in the text.

Short term Before flooding occurs the disaster management authority from the municipality can start preparing the inhabitants at Bakklandet for the event by providing them with knowledge through city labs, fictional exercises (practicing evacuations), and workshops. In these arenas, stakeholders can contribute with their local knowledge, express their concerns, and learn what to do before, under and after the hazardous event. Creating places where the different voluntary groups and other stakeholders can meet and work together helps build networks and relationships.

By establishing a community response association, the municipality can teach some chosen people from the community how to act during the event of floods. This association will be responsible to provide essential information to the community, like how to act during floods. They can also serve as experts to the locals, updating them on evacuation routes and organizing voluntary work (in Norwegian called ‘Dugnad’) to do maintenance on infrastructure and housing or planting of green structures. With limited financial resources, they

Figure 14 Short- and long-term implementations

can also organize activities and voluntary work creating money for community savings.

Long term Maintaining existing buildings makes them more resilient towards hazards. As expressed by Bakklandet Association during the interview: ‘’ If there was a flood coming, I’m pretty sure some of the houses would not survive. They’re just too old and not sufficiently maintained’’. Maintaining the infrastructure is up to the private house owners due to the financial limitation but can also be done by the community during ‘Dugnad’.

Improving other infrastructures is also important to keep the area more adaptive and resilient to flooding. The municipality will be responsible for creating better infrastructure like water -and sewage systems, drainage systems, and softer surfaces where the water reaches the soil. The housing is private owners’ responsibility as previously mentioned and changes must be done in accordance to the cultural heritage departments standards and be approved by the municipality.

Adaptive measures as mentioned in the ‘’best practices- section will also be implemented in the area, focusing on local knowledge.

Emergency response During the event of flooding NVE (Norwegian water and energy directorate) and Metrological

institute will alarm Trondheim municipality, and keep track of how the event unfolds and keeping the municipality updated. From there information to the inhabitants will be distributed through SMS warning systems or by other forms of media (newspapers, national TV broadcasting, etc.).

Having a count of the number of people living in the area will also be important during evacuation.

Statistics and local knowledge will help always keeping track of people in the area. Local knowledge will provide information on who’s home and other people being there as guests.

The community response association should keep the residents updated on the evacuation routes.

Local and regional rescue groups will be alarmed and prepared to do their assigned task like helping the elderly, disabled, or other residents in safety during the evacuation.

Operational Support plan The operational support plan shows how the different stakeholders distribute the information and who is responsible for financial, humanitarian, and other supports during a crisis. It is based on the previous stakeholder mapping (see figure 11).

In this scenario, the municipality has a disaster risk management authority and therefore they

Figure 15 The Operational Support plan

will be the main authority distributing information and delegating the responsibility for financial and humanitarian support between the different stakeholders. They are also responsible for creating community response associations and conduct workshops and urban labs for the community. They also must establish relationships between diverse stakeholders. The disaster risk management authority can also be in contact with other parts of the municipality like the water management authority and urban planners to integrate preventative measures.

The stakeholders, NVE and Metrological Institute, will distribute information and warnings about flooding to the municipality. The metrological web page YR and newspapers- and stations (both local, regional, and national) will distribute this information to the community.

The community is a significant resource in our scenario and the municipality will have the responsibility to give them the education they need and preparing them for the event. Stakeholders in the community will be the new community response association that is intended to be formed, Bakklandet and Lillegårdsbakken association, restaurants and stores located in the area and people living there.

During the event of flooding ‘Kristiansten Festning’’ can serve as a meeting point due to its high location in the terrain. For the elderly and disabled, this might be too hard to reach. For these people, a rescue team must help them in safety. Voluntary rescue groups like Red Cross, Caritas Trondheim, and the indented community response group can help with this. As can national originations like the Norwegian civil defense military and the police.

Schools and universities like NTNU, Trondheim Internation School, and Trondheim Katedralskole can serve as evacuation centers or meeting points nearby the area. People can get there on foot, by bike, or in their cars. ATB can also help with transporting people. Hotels located in the city center, family or friends can in the long term serve as shelters for residents.

Preparedness Plan Bakklandet is an urban residential area in Trondheim, Norway and urban floods have been a growing issue of concern for both developed and developing nations. They cause damage to buildings, utility works, housing, household assets, income losses in industries and trade, loss of employment to daily earners or temporary workers, and interruption to transport systems. The preparedness plan for this assignment is aiming to manage and coordinate pre-flooding mitigation efforts as well as aftermath flooding destructions.

The damage caused by urban floods is on the rise.

It is therefore important to understand the causes of and impacts different types of flooding have on urban areas (World Bank, 2012). Hazards cannot be prevented from occurring especially natural hazards such as flooding but the vulnerability associated with flood disaster can be mitigated by one aspect of disaster management. Preparedness action is closely related to how individuals perceive and act on risk information. Along with, the preparedness measures have the big advantage of being able to address root causes and dynamic pressures instead of symptoms in a system, which is more stable than after a disaster (Ezemonye, Mary. N, 2014).

Pre-flooding mitigation Plan As previously mentioned in the paper, flooding hazards cannot be prevented, but the vulnerability related to flooding can be minimized with mitigation efforts. In Bakklandet there are multiple protective measures that residents will practice dealing with the situation. Using the awareness knowledge acquired, making the housing complex

more resilient against flooding by doing small preventative measures such as implementing small maintenance and dissemination of information between the stakeholders. There is a plan in place that the municipality is working in the residential areas to improve the water and sewerage system (Trondheim kommune, 2013).

Post-flood Destruction Plan An immediate assessment survey will be conducted to find out the overall flood destructions and the task will be prioritized. Health services will be provided for injured and traumatized people in coordination with Saint Olave Hospital. Temporary shelters for the affected households are arranged until their housing units are reconstructed. Volunteer aid organizations will take up the lead in providing food and clothing items. Since the area has high value because of the Cultural Heritage Buildings, the solidarity and fundraising initiatives will hopefully provide the community with enough financial resources to restore important infrastructure.

Evacuation Plan Life matters and rescuing people is the most prioritized task in the preparedness plan. We have various complex dwellers in Bakklandet community. These include families with children,

students’ tenants attending NTNU from other parts of Norway and exchange students, retired landlords as the original inhabitants in Trondheim city, restaurants and café owners, employees in the office compounds, and tourists visiting from the available site attractions. Physically the most vulnerable people are children and old age groups.

They are the ones who need immediate attention and the rest of the groups will be taken care of relatively. The evacuation protocol is established based on technical expertise and the acquired knowledge is transferred through awareness training by Trondheim disaster management authorities. In this scenario, the Community Association in Bakklandet together with the municipality agreed on relocation centers and exit strategies. In addition, applying a community-based approach allowed us to identify volunteer groups and establish a rescue group within the region. The support from the mentioned stakeholders that are going to be involved during the evacuation is vital.

Budget The scenario given in this assignment limits financial resources, however, the existing Bakklandet Association created community savings for maintenance of the neighborhood. In addition, the community submits project proposals to active aid organizations and Trondheim Municipality to receive grants. The initiative efforts include monetary support and empowering the capacity of the individuals in Bakklandet.

The yearly allocated budget by the Norwegian government is approximately 500 million NOK, including operations for the work of preventing flood and landslide damage under the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).

The funds will cover the safety, environmental measures, mapping of new flood- and landslideexposed areas, landslide monitoring, notification assistance to the municipalities’ area planning and work with surface water (State budget, 2021).

Voluntary work from the community (dugnad) saves a lot of money and this is because expensive renovations will be done for free by residents.

The Directorate for Cultural Heritage Management provide grants for communities owning or managing cultural monument. The grant cover measures such as restoration, protection and care. Furthermore, in special cases, the support enhances the National Heritage Board and the regional administration to make their initiatives based on national strategic

initiatives. Based on this, a smaller proportion of grants from the post office can go to cultural monuments and cultural environments that are not protected (Riksantikvaren, 2021).

Discussion Based on the scenario with a flood due to heavy rainfall, we have adopted a community-based approach. The effort includes focusing on remedies that increase preparedness and the anticipation of flood risks within Bakklandet community, using better and more targeted information to build household resilience, and protecting the most vulnerable in the community. In the most catastrophic events, networks and public buildings will be harnessed to provide places of safety and first aid. During more regular surface water flooding, losses can be minimized by integrating flood protection such as sustainable urban drainage and wet and dry household protection. Examples from around the world have shown how small, targeted solutions at the catchment level can have a dramatic cumulative effect (Mohajermoghari et al., 2019). Using an approach as this, flood resilience can be built from catchment level to household and

at the street level with loops of learning, working to improve effectiveness over time.

Also, organizing the community disaster management team and the community response team paves way for the community members to be involved and be informed from the beginning so as reduce the uncertainties in such an event as well as how the community can be supported by outside groups and response teams.

Along with challenges and considerable damages, the Pandemic as an established fact has posed a significant threat to the lives and well-being of millions around the Globe yet can be seen as an opportunity for residents and institutional structures in the neighborhood working from home and evacuation centers using digital platforms.

The association in Bakklandet in coordination with health personals will make sure that the most vulnerable people as old age groups towards the virus will be provided with the needed services so that the spread of the virus is avoided during flooding. This reminds us of a well-known quotation about the opportunity that says, “If one door is closed to you, in return hundred doors will be opened by the grace of God”. The group has been focusing to accept realities caused by COVID-19 and thinking to find out ways to adapt and facing it as an opportunity. This trend reflects a point that pandemic as a puzzle is now being accepted as a recognized truth and giving us the chance to find out suitable ways to apply relevant approaches to deal with the chaos.

Conclusion The report by group 2, comprises the analyses of the site, the review of relevant literature and best practices around the world to create a comprehensive Contingency Plan for a hypothetical scenario of Bakklandet community in Trondheim.

The information in this Contingency Plan, therefore, helps find an answer to the scenario: with a disaster management authority, how can a low-density area, with limited financial resources, prepare for and reduce future flood disasters resulting from heavy rainfall?

The Contingency Plan has provided a comprehensive Response Strategy, Implementation Plan, Operational Support Plan, and a Preparedness Plan concerning the given scenario of the Bakklandet community. This has been attempted through the suggesting of strategies and frameworks that are to deal with the unexpected and other uncertainties

that may occur now and sometime in the near future. With limited resources, our approach has focused on building on the existing strengths of the community in Bakklandet and harnessing the benefits of strong social networks to build longterm resilience.

It is our hope that the evaluation of the performance of this Contingency Plan is evaluated to ascertain its performance and updating on regular basis to make it more relevant and appropriate to the needs of the times. Through this, the uncertainties brought about by a changing climate can be appropriately tackled.

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NATURE GUIDES THE WAY Contingency planning for flood in Charlottenlund Rosemina Azad Elin Meinich Riise Puspa Tiwari Julie Willassen Urvik

Abstract

Introduction

Flooding due to sea-level rise and more extreme weather conditions is a major threat for cities near the coast all around the world. Flooding is responsible for damages to houses and buildings, infrastructure and can in some cases be lifethreatening. It is an inevitable fact that higher temperatures due to climate changes will cause changes that will force us to rethink the way we build houses and plan urban areas in the future.

There are measures to be taken in order to prevent flood-caused damages. In this report, we investigated some of the measures that can be applied to protect the coastal area and surrounding insfratructures of Charlottenlund area of Trondheim and hence prepare contingency planning for the given scenario. For this, we studied given site, looked into some of the best practises around the world, analyzed different stakeholders, their responsibilites and interviewed few of them.

Making contingency planning for flood-prone areas helps in mitigating the impact made by hazard and preparing for any future uncertain events.

Everyone has performed some sort of contingency planning in their lives. Having a plan B or a ‘backup’ plan is a common human trait, and that additional plan is simply what a contingency plan is. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (n.d.-b) has a more concrete definition of it – “A management process that analyses disaster risks and establishes arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective and appropriate responses.” The post-disaster community approach relating to preparedness and action can also be related to contingency planning (Meyer and Belobaba, 1982).

One of these hazards is the sea-level rise. The average rate of sea-level rise is 10-20mm per year, with the most in the last century (R. WARRICK, n.d.). According to NASA, there is an evident climate change since the earliest 20th century due to human activities, which has led to a rise in earth’s temperature and global warming (n.d.-n).

This temperature rise is melting glaciers and ice sheets and possible thermal expansion of water (Oerlemans, 1989), causing the increase in sea level. These rises, added by other disasters, such as storm surges, hurricanes or heavy rainfall can push the water more inland creating a great hazard of flooding (n.d.-f).

Figure 1: Map of Trondheim showing study area and road networks

Figure 1: Picture of Site

Figure 2: Image of the study area

The Trondheimsfjorden will be affected by moderate sea-level rise. Charlottenlund in Trondheim is the case area, where parts of the area will be underwater if additional disasters such as storm surges occur. In general, Norway will not be significantly affected by rising sea level (Kristin Aunan, 2008).

Scenario The given scenario for the group assignment of contingency planning is ‘Trondheim is a low dense city and is prone to floods due to rise in sea level.

The municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority.

Background The case Area The selected area for the study (Figure 2) is the Nedre Charlottenlund which lies in the Charlottenlund district of Trondheim municipality.

The area is approximately 5km east of the Trondheim city centre. It is located next to the Trondheim fjord extending from Rotvoll on the west to Renheim on the east and Grilstad on the north.

The main reason for selecting the site is it lies at a low level to the sea and has a high risk of flooding due to a rise in sea level. It is characterized mainly by low density residential areas, with detached housing, semi-detached housing and terraced housing along with Kindergarten, Renheim school, fitness centres and groceries.

Climate Low density

Flood due to Rise in Sea level

Substantial Resources

Disaster Management Authority

Trondheim is located in the region Midt-Norge along the Trondheim Fjord. The climate in Trondheim is humid and mild, due to its location on the edge of the westerly wind belt (2021b). The annual average temperature in Trondheim is 4.4 degrees, where it is measured at the coldest along the coast -15 to -20 and the warmest 25 degrees (Dannevig, 2020).

With climate change, one can expect more heavy rainfall, more frequent and larger magnitude floods, landslides and storm surge as a consequence of sea-level rise, illustrated in the Figure 3.

(Kommunalbank, 2021)

great, it is called storm surge as shown in Figure 4. With storm surges, one often looks at a 20, 200 and 1000 year return period. The consequences of storm surge levels today have been relatively small, but with sea-level rise, it may cause greater damage in the future (2017).

Figure 3: Climate change impact in Trondheim Figure 4: Storm Surge threat (Shears, 2012)

Sea-level rise and storm surge threats Legal regulations in the area Trondheim is affected by land uplift and sea-level rise alone is therefore not a major threat. It is in combination with sea-level rise, storm surge and wave impact that low-lying areas near the sea will be more exposed in the future. When the effect of the weather on the water level is particularly

In the current municipal plan, the area is mainly regulated for existing buildings, new residential buildings, commercial buildings and green structures. A line for the sea-level rise has been regulated, where future measures related to the Plan and the Building Act §20-1 that affect the area Figure 5: Important structrures in the study area

Figure 6: SWOT Analysis of the study area

shall be planned and designed so that sufficient safety is achieved (2014). The restriction was calculated with the expected maximum storm surge in 2100, with a 1000-year repetition interval, plus a 1.2 m wave impact when preparing the area part of the municipal plan. This resulted in a delimitation at elevation 4.87m (NN2000) (2021a).

Figure 5 shows that within a 100m belt there are a few cultural monuments. These are buildings with classification C-antiquarian value. The green area and hiking trails along the coast are also valued as important outdoor area (n.d.-s).

Mobility and Accessibility When it comes to an area’s vulnerability in case of flooding, it is important to look at the infrastructure and accessibility of the area.

Charlottenlund is situated approximately 5 km east of Trondheim centrum, and it takes about 10 minutes to drive to Charlottenlund by car. E6 passes through the area west of Øvre Charlottenlund, then it goes east and down Grillstadtunnelen,

which is situated beneath our area of study, Nedre Charlottenlund as in Figure 1. It continues towards Ranheim and Ranheimsvegen goes through the site of Nedre Charlottenlund and is the main road in our area of study. The bike lanes make the area accessible by bike, which is in line with Trondheim municipality zero growth goal. The area also has good coverage on accessibility by bus with frequent bus departures, almost every 10th minute from the city centre. Charlottenlund is serviced by the metro bus 1 between Kattem and Ranheim and the bus routes 14, 20, and 25. In addition, the railway also stretches through this area.

Figure 7: Site Visit image

Methodology The main methodology for the paper is online data collection. Extensive literature studies and case analyses have been also done to gain knowledge.

To come up with the contingency plan, the methodology was as follows and illustrated in Figure 8: Online data collection: Various online sources were used to find technical data about the project and the site.

Case studies: Many case studies were done to study current and previous practices, to come up with the best solutions for our case.

Interview municipality: Interview of an official from the department of environment was done to know about what the municipality plans on doing.

Literature studies: Numerous literature studies were performed to learn more about the scenario and possible interventions Site visits: The site was visited several times on different occasions to understand the essence of the place.

Interview residents: The residents were interviewed to know what they think of any floods and what preventive methods they are using.

Figure 8: Methodology used for the planning process

Stakeholder analysis In the given scenario, it is important to identify the stakeholders in the focus area and get these connected to reinforcing their network. In this way the different stakeholders will know their responsibilities in case of flooding, which will make a contingency plan for flooding of the area even more efficient. There are stakeholders at different levels of hierarchy that need to be identified.

National level stakeholders At a national level, the stakeholders would be the government, with the Department of Environment (MD), the Ministry of health and services, the Meteorology institute and the Department of Justice and Public security- Norwegian Directorate for the Civil Protection (DSB), The Norwegian Water and Energy Resource Directorate (NVE).

DSB are responsible for providing the society with efficient preparedness and helping in emergency situations (n.d.-l). NVE is responsible for identifying hazardous areas when it comes to flooding, erosion, and landslides and providing the municipality with this information (2015).

Regional level stakeholders The Norwegian public roads administration (SVV) is responsible for the regional roads and infrastructure (n.d.-q). Trondheim Havn (IKS), the other stakeholder in this level which is responsible for maintaining and managing the harbor areas in Trondheim (n.d.-m).

Local level stakeholders At a local level, the municipal planning authorities of Trondheim municipality are responsible for the safety of the people living in the area. They take a leading role in controlling a flooded area and do disaster risk mitigation before and after a flooding event. Inhabitants of the area, and local businesses might have less power but will have an immediate interest in keeping their residential area safe from flooding and could contribute to local resilience.

Civil defense and St. Olav’s hospital are the other stakeholders identified who have influence during the emergency period.

Figure 9 shows the power of the different stakeholders and their interest in the project.

Figure 9: Stakeholder Analysis with Power-Interest Diagram

Case Studies Living Breakwaters The first case study is in Staten Island, New York, which began in 2015. This project stabilizes rough tides, whilst improving the habitat and ecology of the water (n.d.-j). A set of breakwaters, or e-concretes will be used to form sloped rocky formations. These formations can calm the water, reduce wave heights and prevent coastal erosions as seen in Figure 10.

The breakwaters are made with an innovative low pH concrete mix, which is used for water related constructions. These mixes can be molded into different shapes and lined along the coast to mimic the reefs and their surface texture (n.d.-k).

Figure 11: Breakwater Scenario. Source: (n.d.-k)

Figure 10: Reduction of wave force. Source: (n.d.-k)

This method also creates diverse waterfront recreation zones and protects the coastal communities from flooding or damage to buildings.

Furthermore, it maintains a healthy underwater ecology for fish, oysters, jellyfish and juvenile fish to live. The breakwater acts as a reef for the animals. People can see, enjoy and harvest from this increasing fish as well. Figure 11 and 12 shows an idea of this scenario.

Figure 12: Breakwater Scenario. Source: (n.d.-k)

Hunter’s Point South Waterfront Park New York has been experiencing many threats in the urban infrastructures due to climate change.

The Hurricane Sandy 2012To mitigate the risk of the damages that might cause in the future, the city has been adopting the flood control measures in the planning strategy especially in designing new parks. (Sinopoli, 2019) The Hunter’s South waterfront Park is designed to anticipates the unavoidable flooding patterns and rising water levels of the river along with providing a multilayered recreational and cultural destination. The existing concrete bulkheads at the edge are replaced with soft infrastructure by creating a new wetlands and paths along the river to better withstand future flooding in the shoreline as shown in Figure 13. (n.d.-h)

Figure 13: The newly constructed wetlands in replace of concrete barrier that provides natural storm protection (Sinopoli, 2019)

The central oval lawn was designed to contain significant water storage and prevent the flood entering to the rest of the site due to storm surge and high tidal events. When there is flooding, the central oval lawn provides the temporary water storage which is later recede back to the river and in other times the lawn is used as a playground, dog walk and other activities as shown in Figure 14 and 15. (DuRussel et al., 2018).

Figure 14 and 15: The central oval lawn provides recreational space in dry conditions (above) and temporary water storage during wet conditions (below) (n.d.-h)

THE BIG U

Figure 16: Adaptive strategies applied for the flood prevention (n.d.-o)

The BIG U is a project that aims to control flooding by using natural overwater management. The area is also a multi-use area as it functions as a social meeting point, for walks around the coastline or a trip to the park with your kids, but still functions as a barrier between New York and the coast. It is a landscape that protects the vulnerable inhabitants of New York from flooding due to sea-level rise or storms while providing the city with socio-economic benefits as shown in Figure 16.

It breaks the city into different flood-compartments, which are areas that will be resilient to floods.

These areas will be allowed to flood, like the hull of a ship.

To accomplish this huge project, the planning team reached out to the different stakeholders and involved the community regularly. The team reach out to City, State and federal agencies, elected officials, and planning boards and arranged workshops led by the landscape architects. (n.d.-o)

Contingency Planning Scenarios

Low density

Flood due to Rise in Sea level

Substantial Resources

Disaster Management Authority

Trondheim is a low dense city and is prone to floods due to rise in sea level. The municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority.

The developing scenarios are the first step in a contingency planning process. Scenarios are the ‘description of the situation’ that could occur which are carried out on the based of assumptions for any events that might require humanitarian action (n.d.-h). Based on the given scenario for the city of Trondheim, the assumptions are made that describes the different levels of severity for flooding due to rise in sea level and storm surge combined as shown in table 1. This allows us to understand and examine the necessary actions to be taken for different levels of impacts.

Low Impact The scenario has a high probability of happening within years due to climate change and melting of glaciers, however, the overall impact will be the lowest. Less than a 2m rise in sea level is assumed as a low impact, which will affect the coastal area as shown in Figure 17. The scenario could wash off building materials of the houses and roads located on the marine.

Table 1: The scenarios based on different levels of severity and the possible impacts

Low impact area/ flooding due to 2m sea level rise

Medium impact area/ flooding due to 3m sea level rise

High impact area/ flooding due to 5m sea level rise

Figure 17: Flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge in the case area (2021b, edited by researcher)

Medium Impact

High Impact

The scenario is based on the 200-year storm surge period as provided by Trondheim Kommune where the rise in sea level could be 2-5m which is shown in Figure 17. The result could be moderate which mainly would affect the buildings and roads located on the marine. The residential houses on the Grilstand, bridges and roads connecting to it would partially be submerged in the water, and drainage and sewage might be overloaded.

Though this scenario has less chance of happening (more than 1000-year storm surge period), this is assumed to be the worst-case where the impact would be severe. The rise in sea level could be 5m with storm surge and waves which might cause extreme flooding in the site as in Figure 17. This could impact the people and might severe damages to the nearby buildings and infrastructures.

Response strategy The response plan acts as a bridge between the scenario and the plan that follows. Planners must define what they hope to achieve and how they intend to achieve it. A response strategy must be developed, only then can an effective set of implementation requirements be laid out (Choularton, 2007). The goal in this scenario is to delay the amount of water and reduce the extent of damage, as well as make the area attractive for use for sunny days. To achieve this, it is developed a response strategy.

1.

Flood protection strategies -All nature-based solution: Sand filling, rock and green buffers and parks with sinking pools -Semi-nature solution: breakwaters or e-concretes and semi-permeable roads 2.

Emergency responses: warning system.

3.

Infrastructure damage protection: Regulation’s policy.

Flood protection strategies

increased water levels, the beach could be flooded wand act as the first buffer. The area along the coast will be designed as a green area with seating and a hiking trail, bounded by the coast with an edge of rocks. The stones will cause a height difference that holds back the water. Trees and other vegetation will also be able to absorb some water and slow down the water flow. Green area will be designed with seating and some terrain pits and slopes. If the water level reaches above the rock ledge, the water can filter and be kept in pits. The sitting area and playgrounds will be designed with the intention to stop and hold back the water. That will either be lower than the terrain so it will work as a sinking pool or higher so it works as a resistance obstacle the water must get pass. The roads and walking trails will be in semipermeable material, so the water can infiltrate into the ground.

To reduce the impact of waves e-concrete can be placed on the seabed. As shown in the study Breakwaters, have a positive effect where they improve the habitat and ecology of the water as well as calm the water, reduce wave heights, and prevent coastal erosions (n.d.-c).

In Trondheim, storm surges and waves are the biggest danger, and the waves can get up to 2 meters (kommune, 2013).

With inspiration from the case studies, to stop the water from reaching buildings, several naturebased and semi-nature measures are planned that will also make the area more Emergency attractive responses on sunny days.

The A warning system nature-based must be developed solutions will that can warn the act as buffers population if the where the speed amount of water will lead of the water is to damage and the need for slowed down, and evacuation. The Department the water can infiltrate of Metrology monitors and has Figure 18: Response Strategy into the ground. Expanding procedures for when extreme weather the beach will create more events must be notified. They send out distance between the coastline and warnings in advance of dangerous weather so that the buildings. it will be possible to implement measures that The beach will make the area user-friendly on reduce the damage (n.d.-d). sunny days and also add aesthetic value. With

If such notice is given, the fire unit must prepare for many emergency calls and it must be ensured that the information is passed on to the residents in the area. In this way, residents can secure important objects and get to safety before the water reaches the houses or blocks access roads. Residents who follow the weather forecast or read the news will receive the warning themselves, but to ensure that all residents are warned, an alarm system will go off in the area when there is a need for evacuation.

DBS recommends being prepared if storm surges are announced; use sandbags, move cars out of parking lots that can be flooded, encourage people to clean basements and more (2017).

Infrastructure damage protection The buildings and roads at Grillstad are relatively new and are built according to regulations that take a sea level rise to quota +3 m into account.

The elevation for new houses is 3.25 meters above sea level and there will be a parking basement below this which can be affected by extreme precipitation and spring flood. In that case, it will only be a matter of material damage (Kommune, 2017). New development in flood-prone areas should mainly be avoided but may be acceptable if abundant safety measures are taken. Examples of measures are according to DSB: - set requirements for raising the ground for road and building site - the area can be designed to withstand occasional floods, for example by building parks, walkways and green areas in the area - requirements for what is built should withstand flooding - there may be requirements for baseless zones, clogged basements or basements that can withstand being flooded - Raise electrical installations above the flood zone - building waterproof, construction of waterproof gates for garage facilities - Avoid change of use from basement storage to basement living room/bedroom.

- -install check valve (2017).

Implementation Plan After the scope of interventions and response strategies have been defined, the project can be initiated, outlining how the response plan will be demonstrated (Choularton, 2007). The implementation plan should clearly document the steps that are taken in order to put the solution in practice (n.d.-i).

As mentioned in the scenario plan, the site has three types of impacts due to the sea level rise, low, medium and high; figures 20, 21, 24, 25, 27 and 28 shows these scenarios. The responses defined have been made keeping them in mind, and the implementation plan will portray solutions for all of them in a holistic manner, rather than in sections. While speaking with Mr. Jøran Solli, from the Trondheim Municipality of the department of Environment, he mentioned that Trondheim is planning for a sea-level rise and that most of their interventions are nature-based. Moreover, the Municipality knows an imminent 3-4m rise in sea level due to ice caps melting, rain and storm surge, but they have not considered the force of the tidal waves, and they believe, the rise might be more with the waves. Thus, our implementation plan is to tackle all these issues for the area; table 2 demonstrates these further.

In the response plan, it was mentioned that the plan would follow flood protection interventions, emergency responses and infrastructure damage solutions.

The flood defensive interventions would have nature-based and semi nature-based solutions, and we have defined some elements which would act as their solutions.

N a t u r e - b a s e d interventions:

A 1.

Coral reefs: “these are large underwater s t r u c t u r e s B composed of the skeletons of C colonial marine invertebrates called coral” (Ross, 2019).

The coral reefs support habitat for more than Figure 19: Intervention areas 4,000 species of fish and

Figure 20: Current Scenario of area A

Figure 21: Scenario after 3m sea-level rise for area A

Figure 22: Proposed Intervention for area A

Figure 23: Section of intervention for area A

3.

Rocks: the rocks formed along the coast receives the energy of the waves, protects from storms and prevents soil erosion (2012).

4.

Vegetation: Tall grass can soak up to 6-8 inches of water preventing floods (n.d.-e).

Marshland also temporarily store water and release them slowly, thus preventing floods (n.d.-r). Grass dunes can also help in stopping the flow of water, storms or waves by acting as a green barrier. These dunes can also be used as seating.

Figure 24: Current Scenario of area B

Semi- Nature-based interventions: 1.

E-concrete: having e-concretes as breakwater slows down the force of tidal waves, protects against coastal erosion and all the while creates an ecology for marine animals (n.d.-j).

2.

Semi-permeable roads: permeable or semi-permeable surfaces such as porous asphalt catches water and stores them, slowly letting them out to the soil underneath (Selbig, n.d.). This helps in flood protection.

Figure 25: Scenario after 3m rise in sea level for area B

thousands of other plants and animals (n.d.-c). They buffer the coast from strong tidal waves, storms and floods, soil erosion, all the while maintains a good ecosystem for marine lives (n.d.-g).

2.

Beach extension: beaches are filled with sediment, usually sand, to restore or nourish the lives of beaches (n.d.-a). This prevents it from eroding and extends the shoreline, which reduces impacts of storms, floods, tsunamis and such.

Additionally, beaches are an important recreational spot and enhance the beauty of a place.

Figure 26: Section of the proposed intervention of area B

Emergency responses: Emergency response is a warning system from the government and the meteorological department.

For low warnings, SMS service and YR app will be used to alert the residents. For higher warning, in addition to these, alarm sounds could ring in the neighbourhood. The disaster risk management, consisting of the rescue teams and emergency planning department civil defense, will be on spot to help evacuate the residents or help in clearing the path or pumping out the water. The civil defence will consist of police and firefighters, whereas the rescue team will consist of health care workers.

Figure 27: Current Scenario of area C

Figure 29: Proposed Intervention for area C

Figure 30: Section of intervention for area C

Figure 28: Scenario after 3m rise in sea level for area C

Table 2: The implemention plan for the assumed scenarios

Infrastructure damage solutions: Trondheim Municipality has existing rules for building houses near coastlines, those rules should be implied more strictly. Road Transport Authority should maintain the roads properly in case of emergency response, with adequate public services to move the residents to safety.

Each level of impact has a different level of interventions associated with them as shown in Table 2. We will focus on 3 points on the site, which will act as a prototype of the entire site; figure 19 shows these 3 locations. As per the municipality, their ideas were also natural, and we tried to do the same. Furthermore, the site already has some flood prevention landscapes, and our interventions tried to compliment them rather than create something extremely new; figues 22, 23, 26, 29 and 30 shows the possible intervention plans and their relevent section.

The first layer is the e-concrete which helps in stopping the force of the water. It also helps in creating an ecosystem for the underwater lives.

Right after the e-concrete is the coral reef. Coral reef also helps in the ecosystem of marine life, whilst stopping coastal erosion, which has occurred in parts of the coast in Charlottenlund.

The next layer is the added sand, which creates a new, longer beach. This beach will create more distance for the flood to reach the residential houses, whilst adding to the beauty of the site.

Furthermore, beaches create a recreational spot and can add more incentive for people to visit during summer or other holidays.

Afterwards, a layer of rock is present. This layer is pre-existing in the site and helps in stopping the force of the water and coastal erosion. The rocks can be enhanced even more to create a stronger perimeter along the coast.

Following the rocks is a layer of vegetation, which is wet marshlands and long grass. As this type of vegetation tends to store excess water and let it go slowly, they will help soak in flood water. There might also be thick trees like maple and oak which help against the force of storms.

The pedestrian roads will be of semi-permeable materials such as porous asphalt. They let the stormwater or flood water run off in them towards the ground.

The next layer is a sunken park or a basketball court.

We have placed both in different spots depending on the need of that particular zone. Making them lower than the horizon helps in storing any flood water, which can be later repurposed.

Finally, the next layer is grassy dunes, lined with steps for people to sit. The steps are faced towards the fjord so that the residents can enjoy the scenery. In other times, the steps will help in stopping the force of storms and the grassy dunes can soak in water as well.

These layers of protection do not stop the water, rather lets the water in and later soak it in the ground. Trying to stop the water will need a solid infrastructure, and out interventions were all natural and minimum, so that they merge with the landscape.

Operational support plan The function of an operational support plan will therefore be to identify the different stakeholders in the area and pinpoint which responsibility each of them has, and what resources are available. Since our scenario supplies us with substantial resources and a disaster management authority, it will be the responsibility of the disaster management authority of Trondheim municipality to map out stakeholders and make sure each of them knows what their responsibilities are in an emergency.

It will be important to know in what order the events will unfold for optimal efficiency which will be crucial. The disaster management authority will have sufficient means to properly coordinate the different stakeholders for efficient response.

The disaster management team should be in close contact with NVE and the meteorological institute, which is monitoring the river flow in Trondheim and will be the first one to know if there is a flood threat.

The continual monitoring of the river flow makes it possible to get ahead of the threat and react immediately. The key to efficient response will be to reach out to the different stakeholders at the different levels to strengthen their communication Figure 30: Operational support plan

in an emergency. This must be done at a crosssectional level.

The disaster management team will also be responsible for alerting the public and should therefore be in close contact with the local newspaper, Adresseavisa, or other social media platforms that can reach out to the public. The meteorological institute will also broadcast on the news if there is a flood threat.

In case of flooding of the area, there needs to be coordinated transport and evacuation of the inhabitants. The disaster management authority needs to communicate with the regional transport network for their services in an emergency. It will be important to keep good communication with Trøndelag taxi and the regional bus company, AtB. In case of evacuation, there also needs to be a clear plan for shelter. The local school or the kinder garden could be useful in this case.

Figure 30 illustrates the operational support plan that shows the co-ordination among different stakeholders and disaster management authority.

Table 3: Preparedness plan for different interventions

Preparedness plan

Budget

Nature based solutions/ semi nature

In the given scenario the municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority. Based on the previous chapters a budget has been made for the costs of the different steps to prevent and handle the situation if the hazard in the given scenario occurs.

The cost of the actions is divided into Low Cost +, Medium Cost ++ and High Cost +++ as shown in Table 4. The choice of who is responsible and the costs of the measures are made on assumptions by the group based on literature. Even though there is just a few actions that shows high cost in the budget, the total cost of for the measures would cost the city a high amount of money.

In our project, we wanted to supply the area with nature-based solutions for flood handling. Among these nature-based solutions are an extension of the beach, tall grass and marshlands, trees and green dunes, sunken park and sunken basketball court. Our semi nature-based solutions contain Econcrete for controlling the waves. To do this we have to involve architects and landscape planners that can design the projects. The planners will have to prepare a regulation plan with a legal plan. The plan then needs to be approved by the Trondheim municipality and align with the building regulations in the area.

Emergency response – warning system People who live in areas that are prone to flooding should be educated in the risk situation of their environment. The inhabitants must know how to react and where to go in an emergency. Enhancing community awareness will be important in this regard. It is necessary that there is efficient communication from the meteorological institute and from NVE to the community about the flood hazard so that one has enough time to evacuate with important belongings from the site. This could be done by supplying the inhabitants of the community with an app that will alert them before flooding. Effective communication and coordination between the different departments such as the police and fire department will also be of high importance.

Building & infrastructure protection Trondheim municipality is responsible for setting the building regulations and codes of the area.

These should consider flood-hazard to keep buildings and people out of harm. The transport authority should maintain the infrastructure by frequently maintaining the roads so that they are free from hindrance in case of an emergency. The Trondheim municipality will also be responsible for drainage maintenance.

Table 3 shows the preparedness plan for different interventions in the project.

Table 4: Budget Assumption

Discussion and conclusion Nedre Charlottenlund is an attractive area with a coastline and good bus connections to the Trondheim city centre. It is therefore an appealing place to move to, build new homes and businesses.

Today, there are some cultural monuments near the coastline and a hiking trail with green surroundings, which adds further site quality. However, the area has several challenges as the area is placed in low terrain and within the destination area for sealevel rise and storm surge.

Climate change can deteriorate the current climate, and in combination with sea level rise, storm surge and waves, large parts of Nedre Charlottenlund can be flooded. It is uncertain when the extreme weather will occur and it is only an estimation of the probability of how often such an event will recur. This means that a 200-year storm surge can occur in 30, 50, 100 or 200 years and it is only statistically calculated that it will occur once in 200 years, it can happen more often. It is therefore important to realize the danger early and take the necessary measures before the incident occurs to limit the extent of the damage. On the other hand, it will require that those who have the power to make changes see the importance and have an interest in implementing the necessary measures in time.

It is primarily recommended to avoid building in risk zones for flooding, but some measures can be applied to ensure that buildings still can be built safely inside the area. In this paper, we have been looking at simple measures to make the area both attractive and safe, even though it is within the risk zone for flooding. As such an event only will occur once in many years, it is important that the areas can be used for other purposes in the meantime.

The contingency measures in this paper are inspired by the example case studies and are based on natural solutions that will not destroy the area aesthetically or stand as an obstacle for normal activity and use. Rather, it will improve the area and make it even more user-friendly and attractive. However, the measures will not stop the flood completely but reduce the extent of the damage and give the population more time to evacuate to a safe spot.

Another important measure is to inform the population and arouse interest in climate adaptation. Lack of interest among the population and those who have the power to make decisions can lead to the downgrading of climate adaptation.

Measures can also meet resistance and it is, therefore, important to get acceptance from the residents for it to be possible to implement. If the population is aware of the danger, they can also make the necessary preparations, such as cleaning basements and securing important objects over the flood zone. It will also mean that when the alarm goes off, they take it seriously and evacuate in time.

The public sector can set restrictions on land use, give regulations for what is permitted and set requirements for new buildings. To save existing buildings, the public sector can implement necessary measures along the coast to reduce and slow down the water, but the residents must secure private property themselves. It is the private owners who are responsible for taking the necessary measures on their private house or plot. The municipality can be the driving force, but it cannot force anyone to make changes to private land. Measures such as raising sockets and electricity, installing a check valve and bolstering the building with waterproof structures, the residents themselves must take the initiative and take the costs.

Thus, this report can give an overview of how a redesign can be done of the area or any similar area. The number of actors involved in such type of contingency plan is immense, and each of them plays an important part. It is very crucial to find all the related stakeholders, including the community themselves, and come up with the best solutions.

The sea-level rise is emerging, and the correct steps to protect and prevent must be taken now to prepare for the worst because as the phrase goes, we should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

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Transformation on Progress A Contingency Plan for Resilient Ilsvika Group 4 Andreas Berntzen Soniya Adhikari Xinyu Zhang

1 INTRODUCTION It is late March 2025 in Ilsvika, an area relatively central in Trondheim next to the sea. Modern block buildings gradually occupy the land here and dominate this area to be highly dense and populated. The trinity development model of education, research and industry in Norway has a good reputation all over the world. Due to the successful commercial transformation of innovative technologies during the last three years, the municipality of Trondheim has gained substantial resources. Besides, more attention has been paid to disaster management by the government after the flood in the western Norway in 2014.

The sun peered from behind dark clouds during the last two weeks. Residents looked up at the sky with worries from time to time on their doorsteps.

The temperature was a bit unstable around 0°C, so the snow melted and then froze again, which made it slippery everywhere. Ice covered the streets and backyards. Five days ago, the rain started to drop heavily and dashed the last hope for outdoor activities. The creeks have been growing visibly.

It is an ordinary Sunday in Ilsvika. People enjoy rest and recreation inside. However, this area will soon lose its peace, as a flood is on the way.

1.1 Research Question The given scenario is shown as follows to introduce the worst case: ‘Trondheim is a very high-density city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. The municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority.’

On the foundation of this scenario, the main goal of this report is to make a contingency plan as a response in Ilsvica.

First, this report seeks to explain the specific content of the scenario. Then it comes to how people react to a flood due to heavy rainfall in case of emergency. Above all, this report probes into how to get prepared for an unexpected event like this in the future, especially how the disaster management authority can do with substantial resources. And there is a try to identify who to include in the process. Lastly, this report explores what the costs might be.

1.2 Outline The latter part of this report is divided into four main parts. First, the following Methodology section introduces the methods used for data collection, situation analysis and contingency planning. Next to it is the section of Findings, which includes the conclusions regarding site analysis, stakeholder analysis and some experiences of predecessors in different countries. Then it comes to the core of this report, the section of Contingency Plan.

Scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, operational support plan, preparedness plan and budget will be introduced here in turn. Finally, the encountered difficulties, learning and reflections will be summarized in the section of Conclusion.

2 METHODOLOGY The methods used are listed as follows:

2.1 Literature Review A review of literature was used to found the theoretical framework of this report. Based on the given scenario, related information about the site from different papers and websites was carefully selected to develop it. National, regional, and local documents and laws served Norwegian flood prevention measures as a background. All of these provided a deep understanding of how the site could be attacked by the floods. Besides, examples of best practices in different countries were referred to for inspiration.

2.2 Street-walking Workshop People were invited to walk on the local streets in Ilsvika with a specific purpose of observing the extant built environment. All sorts of people could contribute, no matter what age or position.

Participants were encouraged to talk freely about their knowledge and feelings of the different places here in a casual and informal atmosphere.

The process in which they exchanged views with each other allowed the fieldworkers to get a deep understanding of the site (岡本肇, 2010).

2.5 Story Telling The method of story telling was used to convey the scenario. Five characters, Ola, Susanne, Atlan and Kjersti and Jan as a couple, were formed based on the collected information, direct observations and individual interviews. They not only represent different points of views of people with different experiences from distinct backgrounds, but also make the scenario easier to be understood and accepted.

2.6 Co-design Co-design is a methodology for actively engaging a broad range of people directly involved in an issue, place or process in its design of improvements, innovations and impacts (Burkett, 2012). Due to the shorthanded and resource-limited situation and the COVID-19 pandemic, nobody was able to be included in the decision process of the contingency plan. However, the interests, needs and knowledge of the local residents were taken into consideration in every effort. Adaptions to the contingency plan were also conducted based on the feedbacks collected in individual interviews.

Acquaintance • Literature Review • Photography • Direct Observation

2.3 Individual Interview Individual interview was used to get the key concepts of Ilsvika for further analysis. Interviews in both formal and informal manners with different people were conducted in the fieldwork. It helped in-depth investigation and emphasized the different viewpoints of various stakeholders, both of which supported to formulate the possible interventions later.

Findings • • • •

Literature Review Street-walking Workshop Individual Interview Stakeholder Mapping

2.4 Stakeholder Mapping At first, stakeholders who could be affected by the contingency planning or play important roles in its process were identified from the government level to the community level. Then analysis of them was conducted at national, regional and local level in order to know about their specific roles, importance weights and contributions. A powerinterest diagram of stakeholders was also created to illustrate their different positions in making the contingency plan.

Scenario • Story Telling

Intervention • Co-design • Individual Interview Figure 1. Methodology

3 FINDINGS The learning process is necessary to get prepared for the establishment of the contingency plan.

Findings during it are listed as follows:

3.1 Site Analysis Norway

Ilsvika

City Center

Figure 2. Location of Ilsvika

As figure 2 shows, Ilsvika is located in Trondheim in the west of its city center, between Hill Bymarka and Trondheimsfjorden. This area was historically characterized by the industrial and commercial activities related to fishery based on its port (Rosvold, 2020). Since late 1990s, there has been an extensive development of residence here, and dense apartment blocks dominate it, while Ilsvikøra, a small cluster of picturesque low wooden houses built in the 18th century, is reserved as a valuable characteristic of this area (Bygningsrådet, 2014).

3.1.1 Exposure to the Creeks As figure 3 shows, Ilsvika has a water network consisting of several creeks. Ilabekken goes through the area from south to north, while three other creeks come all the way down from Hill Bymarka and go underground as they approach Ilsvika.

Ilabekken has played a fundamental role throughout the ages. As an important supplementary source when well water got poor, it functioned as the most important stream in Trondheim after 1777. However, Ilabekken was also known for its temperament and caused annual floods in the past. Dams were built in the watercourse in an attempt to tame it, which did improve the conditions until 1791, when heavy snow melting and preciptation for five days burst the dams and led to the worst flood ever ruining 6 houses and killing 22 people. Then the lower reaches of Ilabekken got laid in pipes and a culvert in the early 20th century. Still various floods striked Ilsvika after that, the last one of which occurred in 1971 (Koteng 2016, Folstad, 2006). Additional measures have thus been introduced to secure the surroundings recently, such as flood control embankments, the reopening of Ilabekken and the improvement of terrains and barriers (Folstad, 2006, Bygningsrådet, 2014).

All of the creeks can cause floods In Ilsvika, and the most influenced areas have been marked in figure 3.

Hill Bymarka

Ilabekken Figure 3. Creeks and Flood-influenced Areas in Ilsvika (NVE, 2017)

Flood-influenced Areas

Figure 4. Water in the Roads in Late Winter in Trondheim (Meiforth, 2013)

3.1.2 Dangerous Late Winter

Besides, the topography of Ilsvika leads the flood water to gather in Ilsvikøra as figure 6 shows.

The worst case of scenario in Trondheim is in late winter when the temperature is slightly over 0°C, because the snow starts melting and the rainfall is unable to accumulate in the form of ice. However, the ground is still frozen and the ducts get blocked by snow and ice, which result in the dysfunction of the drainage system (Meiforth, 2013). The water therefore cannot get into the drains as figure 4 shows and then causes flooding.

3.1.3 Second Disaster Risk of Landslide The slope of Ilsvika consists mainly of sandy silt and the western part of it as figure 5 shows is constructed on continuous layers of sensitive quick clay, the topologies of which both can accelerate landslides in face of large and frequent floods. It is essential to adopt technical measures to reduce the second disaster risk of landslide (Bygningsrådet, 2014, NVE, 2021).

Flood Water Movement Figure 6. Topography

Not to mention that the traditional architectural structures of the low wooden houses do not have the same resistance to the floods as the frame structures of the modern block buildings.

All these factors together make Ilsvikøra quite vulnerable.

3.2 Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholder analysis is performed to define the interests, resources and abilities.

3.2.1 Stakeholder Identification Clay Area

Stakeholders are listed at national, regional and local levels as figure 7 shows.

Figure 5. Clay Area in Ilsvika

3.1.4 Vulnerable Ilsvikøra The rise of sea level is not a big threaten to Ilsvika in general, because Trondheimsfjorden rises at an equivalent speed to the sea (DSB, 2016). Except for Ilsvikøra, the low-lying area is only less than four meters above the sea level. It is important to take the rise of water level during the floods into consideration because of the high potential of damage to Ilsvikøra (Bævre and Larsen, 2001).

The National Level The national expectations are rendered in objectives that must be implemented into local policies through an official document named as National Expectations (NF) distributed to lowerlevel governments, which includes conducting flood prevention measures (Aarsæther, 2018, Vannportalen, 2019).

Furthermore, several ministries and directorates supervise different specific affairs.

NATIONAL LEVEL

REGIONAL LEVEL

Ministry of Justice and Public Security (JD)

Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB)

Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (OED)

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)

Ministry of Climate and Environment (KLD)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MI)

County Council

Trondheim Municipality

LOCAL LEVEL

Residents

Ilsvikøra Vel

Enterprises

Businessmen

By-passers Figure 7. Stakeholder Identification

JD-DSB: The purpose of Ministry of Justice and Public Security (JD) and Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) is to strengthen the society’s abilities to prevent crises and handle serious incidents.

This includes preparation and maintenance of vulnerability analysis and risk assessment, legislation, planning, crisis communication and evaluation of incidents and exercises. Besides, the units promote knowledge-based work and securityrelated research (JD, 2017).

resilient society to reduce the effects of floods (KLD, 2017). Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MI) is a state administrative unit under KLD, which is responsible for early warning in collaboration with NVE. MI ensures that the emergency services are prepared for extreme weather. Besides, it conducts extensive related research and provides climate data (DSB, 2018, MI, 2017).

OED-NVE: Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (OED), along with Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) working under its leadership, is the main regulator of conducting flood prevention measures. The units aim at improving the society’s resilience against floods and landslides.

Specifically, NVE provides the municipalities with guidance on environment security measures for surface water and ground water in making area plans. NVE also takes responsibility for mapping flood-prone areas and notifying their populations accordingly (DSB, 2018, NVE, 2021, NVE, 2018, Regjeringen, 2021b).

The county council is an institution responsible for making regional planning and policies, which are the embodiment of NF to guide the local decision process (Aarsæther, 2018). It takes responsibility for passing on the information of severe weather and flood-prone areas from NVE and MI to the municipalities (DSB, 2018). The county council also plays the role of supervisor as a medium to ensure that the municipalities conduct flood prevention measures following the national guideline. As for poor performance, the county council has the power to report to the national government to take actions, while it has limited influence on the municipalities (Regjeringen, 2021a).

KLD-MI: Ministry of Climate and Environment (KLD) is concerned about how hazards like floods can affect the environment and thus threaten water supplies. It promotes transformation of climate-

The Regional Level

The Local Level According to law, the municipality is required

to ensure the safety of the population through regulations on municipal emergency preparedness.

It is stipulated that the municipality must conduct vulnerability analysis and risk assessment and make a comprehensive contingency plan, aiming to avoid life loss, reduce health damage and protect people’s property. The contingency plan must contain an early warning system, an emergency evacuation plan and a crisis communication strategy among the municipality, the media and the residents (JD, 2011).

Residents, businessmen and by-passers are the ones who can be affected to varying degrees at the community level. Especially, Ilsvikøra has a strong community identity, whose association, Ilsvikøra Vel, has been fighting for the residents’ rights. It will pay close attention to the effects on the residents’ daily lives.

3.2.2 Power-interest Analysis It is noticed that the powers of different levels of governments can vary. The national government updates NF every four years as general guidance.

The autonomy of the municipality is set a high value on, while the county council has few means of implementation other than raising objections according to Planning and Building Act (PBL).

The county council does not function as ‘supreme authority’. Instead, it works on an equal basis

Residents

The municipality is required to engage the local enterprises and residents in the decision process.

Especially, PBL stipulates that participation is an official channel for the individuals to be included.

However, an empirical evidence shows that things might go the other way (JD, 2017, Aarsæther, 2018). In 2014, the municipality of Trondheim launched a construction project of new apartment blocks next to Ilsvikøra against the will of many residents. Although the formal procedures prescribed by PBL were fulfilled, objections raised

by Ilsvikøra Vel were in fact not fully respected in the participation process. The architectural design of the new buildings did change once to match the looking of the wooden houses in Ilsvikøra better, but it was more based on the influence of the developer instead of the residents (Aamodt and Brandseth, 2014, Skjeggdal, 2021).

In summary, the decisions are in fact made by politicians and developers under most circumstances, while the local people are the ones most affected as figure 8 shows.

INTEREST

Ilsvikøra Vel

(Aarsæther, 2018). The subsidiarity principle of social security work means that the crises must be handled organizationally at the lowest possible level. The municipality has a great power in making decisions when it comes to the public safety and ensures the best possible cooperation with relevant institutions (JD, 2017).

Trondheim Municipality

Businessmen NVE

County Council

OED KLD By-passers

MI

Figure 8. Power-interest Analysis

JD DSB

POWER

3.3 Best Practices Experiences are borrowed from precedents under a similar background.

3.3.1 Sponge City Sponge city is an urban construction concept to make cities resilient against environmental changes and natural hazards caused by rain water like sponges. Its core is aquatic ecological infrastructure through combined means (MOHURD, 2014).

Permeable Upper Layer

Permeable Lower Layer

Low-cost natural measures are also cleverly adopted. For example, the two-meter-wide manmade wetland next to the stream in an ecological park in Zhenjiang, China as figure 10 shows increases the capacity of flood storage, degrades pollutants and creates a sightseeing.

3.3.2 Blue Green Solutions One of the features of blue green solutions is the holistic perspective, which means multiple ends are served at the same time through combined means.

Besides, the measures conducted work towards the possible highest standard of environmental quality (Maksimovic et al., 2017).

Denmark

Permeable Base Course

Figure 9. Sponge Road (Guo et al., 2019)

Driven by the base demand for improving flood resistance, Denmark adopted blue green solutions in 2011. Yet the innovative practices implemented in Copenhagen have earned it more than that. The specific actions taken are listed as follows:

The application of high-tech materials to road construction as figure 9 shows is a good sample.

It not only meets the high demanding needs of permeability, compressive strength and antifriction, but also has the benefits of reducing noise, easy maintenance and mitigating urban heat island effects (He et al., 2019).

Expansion of green infrastructure: There was a call for creating more green spaces all over the city through green roofs, broad-crown trees, permeable green surfaces, and greenways. These devices slow down rain water to gain time for drainage and create more exit points. Furthermore, they improve public health and create beauty.

Permeable Roadbed Soil Foundation PVC Pipe

Figure 10. Typical Wetland and Stream Profile (Yang, 2017)

squares, sports facilities and parks were cleverly designed to be able to function as reservoirs for storing stormwater, for example, the cloudburst street in figure 12 (Androsky, 2016).

Croatia In 2011, Zagreb, Croatia adopted the concept of blue green solutions and constructed an almost self-efficient campus through a synergetic system consisting of groundwater resources, underground storage of energy and specially planned vegetation as figure 13 shows.

Figure 11. Combined Sewer Overflow (NYC, 2021)

Renovation of greywater system: As figure 11 shows, Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) is a system specially designed to combine wastewater and stormwater in a single pipe, as opposed to separate systems. It aims at controlling and slowing down overflows. Since 2011, 25 CSOs have been established.

Convex streets: An innovative street network was designed to collect rain water and direct it through the gullies carved in the streets to carefully chosen areas, which can be designated floodplain areas, have underground tanks or be adjacent to ports and harbors.

Dual-use public spaces: Public spaces, such as,

Figure 13. Synergetic System (Maksimovic et al., 2017)

The low-cost and sustainable project improved both the indoor and outdoor environmental quality of the campus and mitigated urban heat island effects (Maksimovic et al., 2017).

Figure 12. Cloudburst Street (Colville, 2021)

4 CONTINGENCY PLAN The contingency plan consists of scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, operation support plan, preparedness plan and budget.

Susanne

4.1 Scenario ‘Trondheim is a very high-density city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. The municipality has substantial resources and has a disaster management authority.’

It is late March, and the temperature rises a little bit. Snow starts melting. However, the ground is still frozen and the drainage pipes keep blocked by ice and snow. The heavy rainfall has been going on for 5 days. Water thus goes nowhere but stays in the roads. Furthermore, the water level of Ilabekken has been increasing visibly for several days. Finally, an overflow strikes Ilsvikøra. The picturesque wooden houses get submerged by the sudden flood and partly seriously damaged.

Stormwater, along with melting snow, comes all the down from Hill Bymarka along the creeks and bursts in the residential areas at its foot. The currents keep scouring the land and lead to a landslide in the clay area.

Susanne is a 36-year-old engineer living in Stjørdal.

She works for the municipality of Trondheim as the chief engineer responsible for infrastructure. Part of her job is conducting engineering measures to ensure social security. However, she might have never paid very close attention to Ilsvika before.

Atlan

Five characters, Ola, Susanne, Atlan and Kjersti and Jan as a couple, are created to introduce the scenario more vividly. They address different elements mostly affected and influential, namely, building, transport, drainage and landslide.

4.1.1 Normal Life Ola

Atlan came to Norway in 2002 from Turkey. He runs a restaurant in Ilsvika for his living. Many local residents like his Turkish food. He enjoys walking his dog, Baldus along Ilabekken at spare time. After quite some years in Ilsvika, Atlan has developed an affection for this area.

Kjersti & Jan

Ola, an 8-year-old boy, lives with his family at Ilsvikøra 11, which is an old house built 300 years ago. It has been in the family for many generations.

Ola always listens to his father talking about how their ancestors worked as fishmen here with deep interest. Although the house has been renovated, Ola still sometimes thinks of it as a little bit scary at night because of the squeaking noises.

Kjersti and Jan are an old couple who have lived in Ilsvika for their whole lives. They are Ola’s grandparents and used to live in Ilsvikøra 11. They had to move into one of the modern block buildings in the western part of Ilsvika several years ago to avoid the heavy work of shoveling snow in the winter. However, it does not mean that they get tired of the wooden house. In fact, they love it so much that they have been acting actively to fight for the preservation of Ilsvikøra since the 1970s.

Susanne: Transport

4.1.2 Emergency It is an early morning in March 2025. The earthworms lay scattered on the ground, while the creeks in Ilsvika grow significantly. Every household in Ilsvikøra gets awakened by a stranger in an orange uniform, who explains very fast that Ilabekken can probably overflow in no time and asks them to leave immediately. Some drive away, while the others wait in a complete daze for rescue vehicles. They have to take a contour to the city center to avoid the drowned roads. When they finally mutter and swear in the hotel rooms, grievous news comes. A landslide happens and the western part of Ilsvika collapses.

Susanne gets an alarm call at 5.30 in the morning.

It is Torgeir from work to report about the great possibility of Ilabekken to cause a sudden flood and damage the buildings along it especially in Ilsvikøra. Susanne throws herself into the car and drives all the way to Ilsvika. She can hardly see the roads because of the heavy rainfall. The car splutters and dies in the waterlogged street close to Ilsvika. Susanne has no choice but to wade through water to meet Torgeir. She avers, ‘we must tell the people.’ She grabss the orange vest from Torgeir and starts knocking at the doors immediately.

Ola: Building

Atlan: Drainage

Ola is suddenly awakened by his father words, ‘Ola, wake up at once, come here to the living room!’

He mumbles, ‘Dad, today is weekend’. However, the pouring rain raps sharply on the window. Ola feels a mice uneasy, sits up and gets dressed. ‘I should have done nothing wrong recently,’ Ola thinks to himself and grabs his teddy bear. He is still wondering if he can watch Vennebyen as usual until he sees the funny guy in a big orange coverall standing in the living room. Before Ola notices anything, his father picks him up and opens the door. Huge branches of trees get blown down to the ground. The creek flows all the way to the house and tumbles over the doorsteps. Ola hugs his father tightly.

Atlan is on a trip with his dog, Baldus when he gets the call from his wife anxiously informing him of the flood in Ilsvika. He tries to call the restaurant to check the situation, yet nobody answers. When he makes it to Ilsvika, he sees a long red ribbon and an official with a walking talkie who screams, ‘Please leave immediately, sir!’ Atlan notices the collapsed buildings behind her only to be more worried about the condition of the restaurant. He tries to break in yet fails. He observes that grey water overflows into a shop next to him, goes everywhere inside and makes it smell really terrible. ‘My restaurant must be worse,’ Atlan talks to himself and feels the tears welling up. His lifelong career just gets ruined.

Kjersti & Jan: Landslide

shattered glass next to her. She feels something wet flowing through her face and then recognizes the distinct blood smell. She tries to shout out, ‘Jan!’ It takes like a century for Jan to crawl to his wife. He breathes heavily, ‘How are you, Kjersti?’

Anyway, they finally make it to the window and orient themselves to the current situation. The sight just shocks them. There is a big hole in the ground. The buildings in Ilsvika collapse. Mud floats like hot lava. Screams of terror linger. Kjerstis says, ‘The safest spot might be the roof.’ Jan grabs her hand and whispers, ‘Never let go.’ They climb all the way to the roof and see a light in the sky coming closer and closer. ‘Rescue helicopter,’ they shout out. Kjersti and Jan wave their aims to give a signal. Fortunately, the pilot notices them and releases the rope ladder, along with a savior, a rescuer.

4.2 Response Strategy After talking to their son on the phone, Kjersti and Jan lie down on the bed, worried about their families losing their home due to the flood.

Suddenly they feel the apartment shaking and the lights flickering. In a matter of seconds, they go through sudden weightlessness.

Kjersti regains consciousness with a serious headache. She notices it dark and smoky around her. She tries to raise her hand only to touch

The contingency plan aims at transferring Ilsvika to be a more resilient and sustainable area. In face of the threatens of floods and landslides, the bottom line of the responses is to conduct humanitarian rescues to ensure the safety of life. Furthermore, it is important to protect the asserts and properties, both public and private, which demands for the improvement of the area’s resistance to natural hazards through synergetic engineering measures, design interventions and

Figure 14. Timeline

• Police • Fire Control • Risk Management Authority • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Water, Sewage And Waste Disposal • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Urban Space And Green Structure • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Geotechnical

Awareness Emergency Evacuation

Rain Water Harvesting • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Water, Sewage And Waste Disposal • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Urban Space And Green Structure

• Health And Welfare Service • Risk Management Authority

• Department Of Municipal Engineering: Water, Sewage And Waste Disposal • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Urban Space And Green Structure Design of

Heating System

SOLUTIONS

• Mobility And Transport Unit Road Reconstruction

Widening Pipes • Department Of Municipal Engineering: Water, Sewage And Waste Disposal

Creek Area

Salt Wells

• Department Of Municipal Engineering: Geotechnical

Figure 15. Operation Support Plan

social actions. The possible most affected and influential elements, namely, building, transport, drainage and landslide, are taken into consideration with priority. On this foundation, the contingency plan yet has a broader vision. It works towards a higher standard of environmental quality of Ilsvika.

Promoting mutual understanding and enhancing social cohesion in the local communities are also part of the expectations. Providing a stable development atmosphere for the local enterprises and small businesses and improving the residents’ livelihoods are included in the decision process too.

4.3 Implementation Plan Based on the scenario, especially in response to the four most affected and influential elements, eight solutions are brought up synergistically from different angles, namely Awareness, Emergency Evacuation, Design of Creek Area, Road Reconstruction, Salt Wells, Widening Pipes, Heating System and Rain Water Harvesting. They are conducted on a different time basis as figure 14 shows to meet multiple goals of different levels.

The short-term solutions are conducted to avoid serious losses in lives and properties. The mediumterm solutions are devoted to reducing disaster risks, ensuring social security and constructing the area to be more resilient against natural hazards.

And in the long term, the changes of concepts and models are closely connected to the transformation of the area.

4.4 Operation Support Plan The risk management authority of Trondheim consists of the mayor, relevant councilors and involved directorates (Helsetilsynet, 2019). It is a powerful system in charge of establishing a crisis management team, conducting vulnerability analysis and risk assessment, making emergency evacuation plans, seeking professional suggestions, regulating crisis communication and implementing specific affairs. Local services, such as police, fire control and medical rescue, also work as an important supplement. (Trondheim Kommune, 2012, NVE, 2015). The national government and the regional council can interfere afterwards and provide financial, advisory and material assistance, while the other stakeholders listed at the local level above may respond accordingly (NVE, 2015, Grann, 2011).

On this foundation, who to charge the specific affairs of the eight proposed solutions are thus determined as figure 15 shows. A clear majority of the work relies on the risk management authority of the municipality of Trondheim.

Design of Creek Area Salt Wells Heating System & Rain Water Harvesting

Figure 16. Scopes of Implementation

4.5 Preparedness Plan

clear notifications of follow-up arrangements as figure 22 shows.

The specific contents of the eight proposed solutions are described below for a more comprehensive and profound understanding. Their scopes of implementation are marked in figure 16. The preparedness actions of each solution are summarized in figure 22.

4.5.1 Awareness A disaster management service that is designed to be proactive rather than reactive will result in more resilient communities (Koshy, 2021). It is important to insert the concept of disaster prevention into people’s minds for spontaneous actions. Awards are set up to attract communities to carry out related education and propagate activities. This solution demands for lauching a carefully designed program with different grant models in Trondheim as figure 22 shows.

4.5.2 Emergency Evacuation In face of crises and serious incidents, the first response must be humanitarian assistance to ensure the safety of life. According to the different ranks, corresponding evacuation plans in Ilsvika are adopted as figure 17 shows. Making an emergency evacuation plan is of great significance to avoid life loss. Instead of the chaos described in the scenario above, emergency evacuation aims at an organized order, a quick reaction and an accurate action, which demands for the knowledge of all possible choices of routes, enough rescue assistance and

Figure 17. Emergency Evacuation Plans in Ilsvika

Platform (Reservoir)

Trail

Flowering Garden

Lawn Run-off

Filtration Filtration

Infiltration Infiltration

4.5.3 Design of Creek Area As figure 18 shows, water-friendly platforms and trails are implemented to provide the residents with rest and entertainment, which can also work as temporary reservoirs for stormwater storage. The carefully adopted materials and planned vegetation improve infiltration, create landscape and reduce environmental pollution. As for the relatively limited spaces next to Ilabekken in Ilsvikøra, rain gardens are created as figure 19 shows. Collaborative design demands for the participation and cooperation of multiple stakeholders and professional knowledge and capabilities as figure 22 shows.

Drainage Layer

Figure 18. Design of Creek Area

cooperation and technical support as figure 22 shows.

4.5.5 Salt Wells

Figure 20. Salt Wells (Simplyinfo, 2015)

Figure 19. Rain Gardens Next to Ilabekken in Ilsvikøra

4.5.4 Road Reconstruction The engineering measure of road reconstruction aims at making the roads more permeable for infiltration to create exits for rain water through the replacement of high-tech materials, when the capacity of drainage system is decreased in late winter due to the blocked pipes by ice and snow.

This is a huge joint project in need of multiple

The implementation of salt wells aims at reducing the disaster risk of landslide through stabilizing the diffusion of salt in the quick clay as figure 20 shows. This is a time-consuming and highcost engineering measure, which leads to large emissions of CO2. Therefore this solution is only temporarily conducted to be replaced by new developed technologies in the future (NGI, 2018, Stranden, 2021). It requires preparedness actions for both construction and maintenance as figure 22 shows.

4.5.6 Widening Pipes This is an efficient flood prevention engineering measure that benefits the whole area. Especially, in

Multi-functional Roof Garden

Solar Panel

Green Park

Road Irrigation

Water Trap Water Storage Tank

Drainage

Drainage

Figure 21. A Synergetic System of Heating System and Rain Water Harvesting Figure 22. Preparedness Actions

Awareness

Emergency Evacuation

Design of Creek Area

Road Reconstruction

Salt Wells

Widening Pipes

Heating System

•

Design an award program with different grant models

• •

Map evacuation routes Make a list of all hotels within the distance of 5 kilometers and sign contracts with them Create and train multiple rescue teams and arrange necessary equipment, goods and materials

•

• •

Conduct participatory leaning and action Create a team of professionals in landscape, architecture, urban planning and civil engineering

•

Refer to the geotechnical documents to ensure the use of proper environment-friendly high-tech materials Create a cooperation platform for the related offices Make a synergetic implementation plan to include the placement of underground equipment, the implement of rain gardens and other objects in the process of road reconstruction

• •

•

Identification of the locations of salt wells Sign a contract with the production company to ensure the provision of salt Create an association responsible for the maintenance of the salt wells

• •

Refer to the geotechnical documents to ensure land composition Map the locations of the object pipes

•

Negotiate with the related offices to conduct a joint project to place underground pipes and water storage tanks when reconstructing roads Design a vegetation system accordingly Prepare a contract with the electricity company

• •

• • •

Rain Water Harvesting

• •

Design a pipe network for water transportation that fits the extant buildings and road system Negotiate with the related offices to conduct a joint project to bury the pipes when reconstructing roads Map the buildings that can be included in the green roof program and make a step-by-step plan

order to handle the melting snow and stormwater coming down from Hill Bymarka, it is important to increase the capacities of the creeks for drainage where they go underground approaching Ilsvika.

Ensuring topographic feasibility in advance is necessary as figure 22 shows.

4.5.7 & 8 Heating System & Rain Water Harvesting The weather conditions of late winter in Trondheim demand for innovative solutions. As figure 21 shows, multi-functional roof gardens are adopted by modern block buildings. Stormwater is harvested through green surfaces and then transported to carefully chosen floodplain areas underground. While it works all year around, rain water harvesting and heating system can specially coordinate with each other in late winter to prevent ice and snow from blocking drains. A hybrid energy system of solar and electricity is adopted. These two solutions together improve the environmental quality, reduce the disaster risk of flood and create some economic benefits. More importantly, they

SOLUTIONS

help bring changes to people’s daily life and subtly change their minds. The preparedness actions to be taken are shown in figure 22.

4.6 Budget The proposed solutions demand for quite some resources. Although substantial resources are within reach, it is still significant to ensure that they are invested in the right places. Therefore, as figure 23 shows, it is necessary to conduct a cost-and-benefit analysis of the proposed solutions to weigh the gains and losses. Based on the consumption of human, material and financial resources, three ranks of cost from low to medium to high are established. The evaluation criterion of benefit is founded on a comprehensive consideration of more than just the effects of flood prevention. The indisputability, sustainability and side effects are also considered. The proposed solutions are thus identified at low, medium and high levels. It is noticed that the decision process of making a budget conversely has a guidance on the implementation plan.

COST

Awareness Emergency Evacuation Design Of The Creek Area Road Reconstruction Salt wells Widening Pipes Heating System Rain Water Harvesting

Figure 23. Cost and Benefit Analysis

BENEFIT

5 CONCLUSION Based on the given conditions, namely, highdensity, rainfall, substantial resources and risk management authority, a specific flood scenario is developed in Ilsvika with special attention to its vulnerabilities. In the big environment of special weather situation in late winter and weak social awareness of flood disaster risk, Ilsvika not only cares about the fragile wooden houses next to the overflowing creeks, but also faces the threaten of landslide.

The proposed contingency plan adopts synergetic engineering measures, design interventions and social actions on a time basis to protect life and property safety, reduce disaster risk, ensure social security, establish district resilience and transform development model and concept, which is a good complement to the extant approaches. A comprehensive improvement on security-related, environmental, aesthetic, economic and social issues is conducted.

Strong government leadership plays a very important role in implementation, which reflects in the gathering of human, material and financial resources and the process of implementation.

However, there might be a lack of individual engagement for social participation in the decision process of contingency planning. The usage of local knowledge can be a great supplement. Besides, the COVID-19 poses a challenge to information collection when it comes to conducting individual interviews. The whole process of question and answer turned out to be completed through emails.

If it is not the shorthanded and resource-limited situation, it would be better to organize a focus group in Ilsvika. The international working group of three comes from China, Nepal and Norway. The different understandings of planning systems due to different cultural backgrounds did create some miscommunications, yet they got overcome later.

Furthermore, the misunderstandings even worked as thinking sparks, for example, the debate on Ilsvikøra Vel’s position promoted the stakeholder analysis at community level.

In every sense, the inclusion of stakeholders in the whole process of contingency planning means a lot. The significance of specialized knowledge was recognized in every step of making practical decisions when making the contingency

plan for Ilsvika. Especially, it demands for an interdisciplinary work style, which emphasizes the method of co-design.

6 REFERENCES

7 FIGURES

Contingency Plan for Brattøra Preparing Brattøra and the community for sea level rise and floods Group 5: Fidgett, Ida. B. U. Røed, Katrine Sharma, Rabin Singh, Kritika

Abstract Trondheim in Norway is one of many cities prone to damages to lives and belongings due to climate change. In this paper, the area of Brattøra is chosen as a focus area, which is a high-density site located by the fjord and the outlet of the river Nidelven. The location makes the area prone to sea level rise and possible storm surges. The site is an important transportation hub, holds many functions and is planned to be further developed. Additionally, Brattøra consists of great amounts of hard surfaces with low ability to infiltrate water. The site therefore makes an interesting case for exploration of urban resilience and the opportunities that lies within uncertainty. For exploring resilience measures a contingency plan is developed through this work. Highly inspired by urban planning practices in China and Hamburg, the contingency plan focuses on spatial solutions, organizational structures, involvement of the community and some technical measures. This will transform both the physical environment and the social sphere. The goal is to create a resilient Brattøra, while at the same time proposing design interventions that invite to recreation and everyday activities.

Introduction As one of many countries in the world, Norway will be affected by the projected future sea-level rise.

Norway has a lower expected sea-level rise than the globe’s mean, but with an extensive costal line and more than 40 % of the country’s population settled along this (ClimateChangePost, n.d.), there is a need for contingency planning in many areas.

A contingency plan is by the UNHCR (The UN Refugee Agency and UN Disaster Management Training Programme) defined as “A forward planning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critical situation” (Choularton, 2007). In this report, a contingency plan is developed through six defined stages: scenario, response strategy, preparedness plan, implementation plan, operational plan, and a budget. As mentioned, our specific area in need of a contingency plan is Brattøra in Trondheim.

Figure 1 shows a picture of Trondheim, and Figure 2 shows a picture of Brattøra. In the further work

Figure 1: Overview picture of Trondheim (Unknown, 2008)

with exploring future flood risks at Brattøra, we are given a specific scenario.

Scenario The scenario states that: • Trondheim is a very high-density city.

• Trondheim is prone to floods caused due to sea level rise.

• The municipality has substantial resources.

• The municipality does not have a disaster management authority.

In addition to this, the assumption that some of the coastal areas are prone to flooding if a 20-, 200- or 1000-year storm surge is to happen (Kartverket, n.d.), is included. The reason for including this in the scenario is that the risk of storm surges increases with sea level rise, which will be explained closer later.

Problem statement Using this scenario to create a contingency plan will help Trondheim prepare for, adapt to, and recover from possible flooding events. As a problem

statement this question arises: What spatial, technical and organizational measures can be implemented to make Brattøra flood resilient given our scenario?

Structure of the report The report is structured into five main sections: methodology, findings, best practices, the contingency plan, and discussion and conclusion.

The methodology shows the working process, highly influenced by literature study. The findingschapter presents the impacts of climate change, a site analysis of Brattøra as well as a stakeholder analysis. Studying best practices, HafenCity in Hamburg and China’s sponge city concept are chosen. Based on different analysis and inspiration from the best practices, a contingency plan is developed. Here, it is chosen to focus on a 1000year storm surge taking place in 2090, and present different measures that will hinder that this turns into a disaster. This is followed up by a discussion and conclusion on how the contingency plan answers to the concepts of urban resilience and uncertainty, the problem statement and the vision.

Figure 2: Overview picture of Brattøra (Trondheim Havn, 2008)

Methodology In order to make a contingency plan it is important to have a strong basis for the decisions that are to be made. Therefore, the first step was to carry through different analysis. Firstly, research on climate change and sea level rise was necessary to be able to understand the threats and risks. Based on this, a high-density site in danger of sea level rise/storm surges was chosen, which is Brattøra.

The risks at Brattøra were further analyzed through mapping of sea level rise and storm surges and research on past events. An analysis of the site’s content and spatial features was also done by visiting the site and analyzing the site through maps. This strengthen the knowledge of the risklevel, the considerations that must be taken as well as the opportunities that lie within the site.

Good solutions for resilience work and contingency planning were found through discussions and studies of best practices from other countries.

Inspiration was taken from HafenCity in Germany, a place with similar challenges and features to Brattøra, and China, a country differing from Norway but facing some of the same challenges.

Investigating land use, buildings and infrastructure also gained insight to the stakeholders. Additional stakeholders were identified by doing research on public, private and voluntary organizations with interest in water, climate adaption and contingency work. The different elements in the contingency plan are mostly based on presentations from the lectures in the course “Urban Contingency Practice and Planning”, as well as some literature research. With all necessary information gathered, brainstorming and structuring of ideas before putting them down to writing and illustrations was the next step, which resulted in the contingency plan.

The work is mostly based on internet research, whereas different sources have been used. Use of google and google scholar have been sufficient to find the necessary information. Data on sea level rise and storm surges are downloaded from Geonorge.no, and data on land use are provided from the university (NTNU). Trondheim municipalities’ homepage is widely used, as they hold information about regulations, city planning strategies and leading plans, as well as being a binding link between different stakeholders in municipal planning work.

Findings Climate change impacts NASA (2021) states that a steady increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since the Industrial Revolution began is the most important long-lived “forcing” of climate change. According to Lindsey (2021) climate change leading to global warming is causing the sea-level to rise in two ways. Firstly, glaciers are melting and therefore adding water to the sea. Secondly, higher temperatures mean warmer water, which again is causing an increase in water volume.

Norway has a long sea-cost, but because of land rise, the experienced effect of sea level rise is smaller than the globe’s mean (Simpson et al., 2015). In Trondheim, the sea is estimated to rise with approximately 53 cm for the period 20812100, taken land rise into account (Trondheim kommune, 2020). This means that the sea level rise alone does not affect the land and built-up areas much. However, seen in context with storm surge, some areas can experience an increased negative effect of the sea level rise.

Storm surges happen when water rise above its normal level and are pushed against the shore by wind. Sea level rise then has a worsening effect by rising the water to even higher levels, and in that way giving the wind more water to transport inland (Environmental defense fund, n.d.). To take an example, during a 200-year storm surge, the water in Trondheim is expected to reach a height of 2.3 meters (Hansen et al., 2009).

Trondheim municipality’s plans and approach to Climate change Trondheim municipality has a goal that by 2030 the city is robust to meet future climate change, and a sub-goal is that the work with climate adaption will contribute to the development of climate-smart and attractive urban areas (Trondheim kommune, 2017). For this reason, climate change and water handling are big parts of their planning work.

The map for land-use element of the municipal master plan of Trondheim for 2012-2024 (see Figure 3) shows that Brattøra is to be used for harbor and downtown purposes (Trondheim commune, 2014).

Figure 3: A section of the municipal master plan 2012-2024 for Trondheim, showing Brattøra. (Trondheim kommune, 2014)

Figure 4: Location of Brattøra (self-made)

Figure 5: Overview of the building types (self-made)

Figure 6: Features of Brattøra (self-made)

This is explained closer in the chapter “History and future development”. Further development in the city generates higher density, and the need for climate adaption then gets stronger. The municipal master plan 2012-2024 includes regulations related to urban water, flood roads, landslides, storm surges and sea level rise.

Location

The average age of the municipal sewer network is about 30 years old, and the conditions of the pipeline networks is in many places characterized by decay. The densification strategy and the expected climate changes mean that a significant increase in peak loads can be expected when it comes to surface water volumes. The municipality has developed several plans regarding climate change and water handling. An example is the master plan for drainage and aquatic environment 2013-2024, where it is stated that measures must be taken to limit the surface water peaks in pipeline systems and in open waterways, and to ensure capacity for future developments and an increase in rainfall.

There is also a high focus on utilizing the water as a positive element in the urban environment, and to return the water to the ground and the vegetation in a possible extend. (Trondheim kommune, 2013)

History and future development

Site Analysis

In newer days there has been a program aiming at transforming some of the harbor, industry and warehouse buildings into downtown purposes. The main goal is to strengthen Brattøra as an important hub for public transport in the region and in the city, and to develop the port area as an attractive place for business with some residentials (Trondheim kommune, 2018). More downtown purposes are well suited with the scenario of high density.

A site analysis will help create understanding of the site. This will enable evaluation and investigation of elements crucial to further planning and development. This analysis covers the location of Brattøra, history and future development, site features, accessibility, existing landmarks, history of flooding in the area, and perceived risks and threats.

Brattøra is located 1-2 km north of the city center of Trondheim. It is situated at the mouth of the river Nidelven (see Figure 4), in a harbor area connected to Trondheimsfjorden. A canal separates Brattøra from the city center in the south, and Nidelven separates the site from Nyhavna in the east.

Brattøra is an artificial island made of loose materials deposited at the outlet of Nidelven, where the river meets the fjord. At first, the area was used for court events for Trondheim and its surrounding counties (Pethon, 2020). In the 1600s, Brattøra started to be used for exportation of goods like wood, fish and copper by sea (Trondheim havn, n.d.). Later, in the 1880s, a railway station was built at the site.

A huge dredge took place, and a pier was built (Rosvold, 2020). This affected the area greatly as a new connection with the surroundings was established, and Brattøra became a transportation hub. The construction of the railway station has affected the city’s development and the station is still functioning as a connecting hub. Today, also region-buses are to find in connection to this railway station.

Site features

The site consists of different building types, as

Figure 7: Accessibility at Brattøra (self-made)

Figure 8: Landmarks at Brattøra (Kulturminnesøk, n.d.)

shown in Figure 5.

In addition to buildings, Brattøra consists of infrastructure, hard surfaces and large areas allocated to parking, which are illustrated in Figure 6. Figure 9 shows pictures from Brattøra. The island has a height of 1.5-4.5 meters above sea level, with the lowest elevations along the coastline (Kartverket, n.d). As Brattøra only consists of hard surfaces, the island has little ability to absorb water, leaving the drainage and sewer systems to handle floods and surface water.

times. In 1987, 1997, 1999 and 2007 there were flooding incidents causing damage to buildings and infrastructure several places in Trondheim (FloodProBE, 2012). These events also affected Brattøra. The latest incident at Brattøra was in February 2019, which is shown in Figure 10 and 11. Pir I was then submerged when a flood reached its peak. Several cars were left under water, and the water was measured to be 395 cm above chart datum (Kjørholt, 2020).

Accessibility

Risks and threats

Figure 7 illustrates the accessibility to Brattøra with different transport modes. It is possible to access Brattøra by car from the west, east or south-east.

There are several car roads crossing the site. You are also able to access the site as a pedestrian or cyclist from west, east and south. On the site, pedestrians and cyclists are prioritized along the promenade, and at the rest of the site they can move freely on the sidewalks along the car roads.

Going westward you follow a pedestrian promenade before reaching Ila, and north of the site you find the fjord. In the south, by the water canal, we find Trondheim Central station. The railway and bus lines run through Brattøra, making the site an important transport hub.

Landmarks

There are several historical cultural monuments to be found at Brattøra. These are mainly related to transportation and trade, where the most important ones are the pier, the railway station and a couple of old buildings. The landmarks at the site are all in danger of being damaged in a storm surge. Figure 8 shows the location of the landmarks.

History of flooding

Trondheim has experienced flood events several

This paper is limited to focus on risks and threats connected to the expected sea level rise in Trondheim. As mentioned earlier, the sea level rise alone does not affect the built-up areas much. It is when the sea level rise is seen together with storm surges that the biggest threats arise. This is explored further in this section through maps of Brattøra during 20-, 200- and 1000 year interval storm surges in different years, which are discussed upon consequence and probability.

Short term: Today The Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) addresses the topic of planning for sea level rise and storm surges in one of their reports, and presents a table connecting yearly probability of a storm surge to its consequences (see Table 1).

(DSB, 2016) Table 1: Consquence and probability (DSB, 2016)

Consequence

Largest nominal annual probability

Small

1/20

Medium

1/200

Large

1/1000

Figure 9: Pictures of Brattøra (self-taken)

Figure 10: Flood at Brattøra in 2019 due to a storm surge. (NTB scanpix, 2019)

Figure 11: Flood at Brattøra in 2019 due to a storm surge. (NTB scanpix, 2019)

Figure 12 shows that bridges, a couple of office buildings and one large parking lot will be affected during a 20-year interval storm surge. A 200-year storm surge will have a medium level consequence.

Two more buildings and more outdoor area at Brattøra will be flooded than in a 20-year storm surge. In addition, one road in the south-east will be flooded. Table 1 shows that a 1000-year storm surge will have big consequences. Even more buildings and infrastructure are affected, which heightens the economic consequences. There is a possibility that bridges entering the site are flooded which can keep critical transport from entering the site (DSB, 2016).

Middle term: In 2050 A middle term perspective is here defined as 30 years into the future. Predicted effects are presented in Figure 12.

Long term: In 2090 A long-term perspective is here defined as 70 years into the future. The predicted effects are shown in Figure 12. We can see that the consequences of storm surges happening are notably bigger in a 2090-scenario than it would be today. This is a result of climate change and sea level rise.

Figure 12: Hypothetical storm surges with 20-, 200- and 1000 year-intervals, now, in 2050 and in 2090. (Selfmade)

Stakeholder analysis

The Norwegian Public Road Administration (NPRA)

Stakeholders of relevance in the scenario are everyone with an interest or concern in the existing flood risk at Brattøra. This can be municipalities, organizations or key people that would be affected by a flood incident, or anyone with the possibility of affecting the outcome. Here, the relevant stakeholders are categorized by national, regional and local level. Figure 13 illustrates the stakeholder's interest and power.

National level The government is the top level of Norwegian leadership. The government is responsible for giving political guidelines at a national level.

Ministries are to implement decisions made by the government, in addition to monitor and evaluate policies. Ministries of relevance in this situation are the ones of Climate and Environment, Justice and Public Security, Local Government and Modernization, Petroleum and Energy, Culture and Transport (Government, n.d.a).

Directorate

for

Civil

The overall task of DSB is to maintain a complete overview of various risks and vulnerability in general. They report to the Ministery of Justice and Public Security. DSB’s responsibilities include local, regional and national preparedness and emergency planning, including planning for flood incidents (DSB, n.d.).

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)

NVE is a directorate under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. They are responsible for the management of Norway’s water and energy resources. NVE works with reducing the risk of damages associated with flooding, and they provide information about areas that are prone to flooding and measures to be taken. They also warn about events like storm surges. (NVE, 2020).

Police and Fire Department

Regional level The county County

Government and ministries

The Norwegian Protection (DSB)

NPRA is responsible for providing a smart, continuous, and safe road transportation system for all of Norway. If roads are flooded, they are responsible for controlling the traffic and providing information about the flooded roads and detours.

They will also have interest in strengthening of roads to prevent water damages (Statens vegvesen, 2020).

The Norwegian police and fire department can be used as resources for taking care of society’s and individuals’ needs when unforeseen events occur.

This includes dealing with natural disasters, for example related to flood incidents (Government, n.d.b).

governor

and

Trondheim

The role of the County Governor is to be the main representative of central government, as well as supervising local authorities. The county is responsible for coordination between the national and local level.

Local level Trondheim Municipality

Trondheim municipality is an important stakeholder given that they have jurisdictional decision-making authority for land use and construction. This gives them the opportunity to plan for climate change adaptation.

Trondheim Harbour

The harbor at Brattøra will be affected if a flood were to happen. Their warehouses, equipment and in- and out-going traffic are exposed.

Community members and landowners

Organizations, workers and other users of Brattøra are the first ones to be affected by a flood incident.

Landowners might face economic challenges.

Red cross Trondheim

The Norwegian Red Cross is a humanitarian aid organization based on voluntariness. Red Cross Trondheim has over 1000 volunteers, and is working with preparedness, search and rescue, before, during and after emergency events (Røde kors, n.d.).

Trondheim Central Station

In a future storm surge, the maps from the site analysis show that also some railroad tracks are in danger of being flooded. This will have great effect on the transportation network and will cause repercussions to the rest of the country.

Figure 13: Interest and power of the stakeholders

Best practices HafenCity, Hamburg In Hamburg, a city in the north of Germany, an old industrial site located next to the river Elbe is being transformed into an urban zone for living and recreation (KCAP, n.d.). The area is called HafenCity. The challenge of HafenCity is that the area is located outside the city dike line and that the area originally lies pretty low (4.4-7.2 meters above main sea level rise). This makes the area prone to regular flooding. Therefore, in developing the area, there was a need for a solid resilience strategy. Here, Restemeyer et al.’s (2015) paper is used for addressing this best practice: “A strategybased framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – A Hamburg case study”. The strategy of HafenCity differs from other cities by taking a more holistic approach to flood resilience.

HafenCity chose to focus on resilience rather than resistance. This approach takes the possibility of flooding into account, and adaptation of landuse is done to minimize the damage potential.

HafenCity did this by elevating bridges and streets to a minimum height of 7.5 meters above main sea level rise. Two streets were built at even higher level to serve as evacuation roads. Buildings incorporated this solution in form of a basement.

Some basements are parking spaces while others are shops, and windows and other openings are protected by temporarily installable flood gates.

HafenCity operates by the idea that robustness is not enough to gain a flood resilient city, what is also needed is adaptability and transformability.

Robustness typically includes dikes, sluices and other storm surge barriers to make the city strong to withstand floods. Adaptability, on the other hand, requires an adjustment of the physical environment, combined with an adjustment of the social sphere. Adjusting the social sphere has to do with people being aware of the allowance of controlled flooding, and their need for knowledge on what to do to save their lives and belongings if a flooding incident occurs. In HafenCity they have made storm surge information sheets to inform the residents about storm surge-related risks.

Focusing on the social sphere and changing people’s mindsets has changed HafenCity’s view to understanding that flood risk management is a

societal task that requires cross-disciplinary work.

Water management, spatial planning, disaster management and citizens must come together in the resilience work. For example, HafenCity has established flood protection communities. This is a way of clarifying responsibility, where every community has one person responsible for putting the flood gates (in basements openings) in place when a storm surge is expected. A redistribution of responsibilities between public and private stakeholders is another way HafenCity is changing the mindsets and pushing toward collaboration.

It is when both the physical environment and people’s mindset change, that we are moving towards transformability. Transformability can be addressed as “living with the water” instead of the traditional thought of “fighting the water”.

HafenCity has shown a new way of addressing flood risk where resilience can be integrated into a broader urban agenda.

Figure 14, 15 and 16 shows pictures from HafenCity.

Sponge Cities, China China is facing flooding crises made worse by the climate changes. Water related issues have increased in frequency and intensity over the last few decades, affecting China’s society, environment and infrastructure incurring average annual loses of over 36 billion USD between 2007 and 2016.

Many of these issues lie in the urbanisation rate in the country, which has increased by 14.5% since 2008. By 2035, 70% of the Chinese population is projected to live in urban areas (Gill, 2020). A concept to reduce the risk of flooding in China is sponge cities.

The sponge city concept has presented an opportunity for Chinese cities to implement new integrated urban water management strategies.

This strategy consist of a new type of Chinese eco city that is set to improve the ongoing development and urbanisation processes by focusing on the urban water cycle. Taking inspiration from sustainable drainage systems in UK or lowimpact developments in the US, sponge cities wish to control and improve urban flooding, water pollution and microclimates, recycle rainwater resources and re-instate degraded environments (Gill, 2020). Urban development should therefore take place through a proactive approach including systems that absorb, store, infiltrate and purify

rainwater. Some benefits of the sponge city listed

by World Future Council (2016) are: • Reduction in flood risk as the city offers more permeable spaces for the natural retention and percolation of water. This leads to better resilience and in particular greater ability to deal with higher flood risks resulting from climate change.

• Lower burdens on drainage systems, water treatment plant, artificial channels and natural streams. This also entails lower costs for drainage and treatment infrastructure.

• Greener, healthier, more enjoyable urban spaces. Greener urban spaces improve quality of life, create more pleasant landscape aesthetics and recreational areas that are enjoyable and attract people. This also means increase in land value due to aesthetically more pleasing, cleaner and healthier open spaces close to private properties.

• Enriched biodiversity around green open spaces, wetlands, urban gardens and green rooftops

Figure 16: HafenCity: Costal line in different levels (KCAP, n.d.)

Figure 17: Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape, n.d.)

Figure 17, 18 and 19 shows Pujiang in China, with the concept of Sponge City as well as elevated predestrian bridges.

Figure 18: C Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape, Figure 14: Overview picture of HafenCity (KCAP, n.d.)

n.d.)

Figure 15: HafenCity: Costal line in different levels

Figure 19: Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape,

(KCAP, n.d.)

n.d.)

The Contingency Plan The contingency plan will be developed based on the conditions given in the introduction. It is decided to prepare for the worst-case scenario: a 1000-year storm surge happening in 2090. Without implementing measures, the result of this scenario will be flooded buildings, surface areas, roads, bridges and railroads. The infrastructure network will be heavily compromised and might cause an accessibility-collapse. Several buildings of cultural heritage will also be damaged. As this is a dense area of both residential and non-residential use, a lot of people will be affected. The contingency plan is further structured into different parts: response strategy, preparedness plan, implementation plan, operational support plan and budget.

Response Strategy The response strategy can be understood as the overall vision of Brattøra. This includes developing appropriate humanitarian responses based on our defined scenario. As mentioned earlier, our aim is to create a mixed-use urban area which is flood resilient while at the same time being a place for recreational activities. Breaking it down, our main objectives are to: 1. Make Brattøra resilient to cope with flooding incidents.

2. Create space for recreation and activities.

These two objectives will come together by using the need for resilience measures as an opportunity to develop recreational space. The site analysis and investigation of Trondheim’s approach to climate change also told us that there is a need for coordination across sectors, as well as measures to relieve the sewer and drainage systems. There is therefore a need for a contingency plan reaching over several dimensions.

Preparedness Plan To be able to realize our response strategy, a preparedness plan is developed. A preparedness plan presents what is necessary to do before measures can be implemented. This will be a useful tool in improving the response. In this case, the preparedness plan focuses on identifying floodprone areas in need of spatial/technical measures,

creating awareness, structuring stakeholders, and creating better information.

Sea level rise worsening the experienced effect of storm surges is a public risk. According to Berke and Lyles (2013) this means that the risk is “largely outside the individual risk bearer’s direct understanding and control” (Berke and Lyles, 2013, p. 182). Berke and Lyles (2013) further mention that we are facing the challenge of a lacking priority by the community in addressing these public risks.

If the community does not see the use of preparing for climate change, no preparedness measures will be taken. A necessary first action is therefore to work on increasing the public risk awareness. This work needs to be done incrementally over a long period. A specific action to be taken at Brattøra is to implement a framework for public risk awareness.

This includes scenario building and visualization.

As Trondheim does not have a disaster management authority, it is important to identify which stakeholders that can contribute to disaster management before, during and after a flood event. Improving the relationship between different actors will also help create continuous communication and collaboration. An open dialogue between stakeholders will further help clarify what responsibility lies on whom. Specific actions are: • Identify established groups that can help in case of an emergency (e.g. Red Cross Trondheim).

• Ask landowners to provide “safe spaces” that can be used as emergency shelters.

• Identify responders being responsible for helping vulnerable groups get to the safe spaces.

• Create a communication platform for municipality, stakeholders and community members at Brattøra.

Providing better information will also help improve the response in a possible disaster situation. This includes teaching the community how to react in a storm surge situation, for example by providing clear instructions on how to save their own lives and belongings. Actions will include: • Creating a storm surge information sheet to inform people about storm surge related risks.

Should include maps showing the location of safe places and evacuation roads.

• Distribute information sheet to residents and other community members.

• Improve existing warning schemes. Try to get NVE to create more detailed long-term flood maps with continuous update.

Implementation Plan The implementation plan defines how responses will be structured and implemented programmatically and logistically. After the elements of the preparedness plan are addressed, it is time for implementing technical, spatial, and organizational measures. Some of the ideas are agreed upon after discussion, but also take great inspiration from the cities that are studied as best practices. Figure 20 gives an overview of the location of the different measures.

Coastal line in different levels The first spatial intervention this plan proposes, is to make the costal line in different levels, which is illustrated in figure 21 and 22. Figure 21 shows a higher level with vegetation that will work as a small storm surge barrier infiltrating some of the water, as well as a water stream to collect surface water and water from storm surges. A promenade for pedestrians and cyclists is placed inside of the water stream. Figure 22 shows another section with a staircase which will work as both a storm surge barrier and a urban space for enjoying the view. Playing with levels will make Brattøra able to handle different water heights.

Figure 20: Overview of the locations of the measures and sponge areas. Two sections are given: i and ii.

Figure 21: Section i from figure 20: Costal line in different levels , with water stream, bicycle and pedesttian lane and vegetation.

Figure 22: Section ii from figure 20: Costal line with marshy land, vegetation and stairs.

Sponge city concept

Other measures

Taking inspiration from China, it is planned to implement the sponge city concept, and the sponge areas are illustrated in figure 20. This is a spatial intervention that will reduce the risk of floods, handle surface water as well as make a more enjoyable urban space. As Brattøra has no green structures, an intervention like this will be a total transformation of the area, which also relieves much of the drainage systems. In addition, instead of blocking the water or leading it through pipes, the surface water can be used as an asset by creating water canals (which is illustrated in figure 21). This provides the area with blue-green structures, providing everyday access to urban nature for activities and recreation. Green areas will be connected by green corridors. This is to reduce the flood risk as much as possible, to make a more enjoyable place to move around and to ensure biodiversity.

Following the example of HafenCity, we need to focus on changing the physical environment and the mindset of the people, as well as making Brattøra robust to withstand floods. The HafenCity example shows that measures within robustness, adaptability and transformability are necessary.

Some changes of the physical environment are already mentioned: building the coastal line into various levels and implement the sponge city concept. In addition, technical measures such as reinforcement of buildings and infrastructure are planned to make Brattøra stronger to withstand flood. From HafenCity, a few more physical changes will be added before we move on to discuss an adjustment of the social sphere.

Reinforcement of buildings and infrastructure One technical intervention that will be implemented is reinforcement of buildings and infrastructure, as well as the stairs to withstand high pressure from storm surges.

One spatial intervention inspired by HafenCity is the elevation of bridges and streets. As we saw in the analysis, the bridges connecting Brattøra to its surroundings are in great danger of being flooded in a storm surge. This can make it impossible for emergency vehicles to enter the site. Therefore, the plan proposes to elevate the bridges giving accessibility to Brattøra. Streets are also in danger of being flooded, some of the key streets that will function as evacuation roads will be elevated.

Another physical measure inspired by HafenCity is to make sure that the basements of buildings

Figure 23: Section i from figure 20. Pedestrian and

Figure 24: Section ii from figure 20. Stairs and marchy

cyclist lane, water stream, marchy land and vegetation.

and green land.

are not used for residential purposes. These spaces may be used for parking or commercial use. To make sure these non-residential spaces are protected in the best way possible, HafenCity implemented flood protection communities with one person in charge of installing temporary flood gates in basement windows when a storm surge is expected. This might be an idea for Brattøra as well.

public and private stakeholders, as well as with community members will then be essential since they all depend on each other.

By creating flood protection communities, we are moving towards organizational and social measures. This measure will be a way of shining light on the public risk, and responsibility is divided and clarified. This might be a first step in including the community members in resilience work.

Another organizational measure to implement at Brattøra will be a redistribution of responsibilities between public and private stakeholders. The similarities Brattøra holds to HafenCity – being an industrial site turning into a lively urban zone at the waterfront – indicate that a redistribution might be realistic in this case. It is a wish that developers at Brattøra are willing to carry some of the resilience cost. In HafenCity one of the developers named the location by the water as the main reason for them being willing to carry the cost of maintaining the basements and flood gates. The location of Brattøra may have the same effect on private actors, which will help spread the resilience responsibility. The collaboration between

All the measures mentioned in the implementation plan require interdisciplinary work. It must therefore be a collaboration between engineers, landscape architects and urban planners.

Created by Wichai Wi from the Noun Project

Operational Support Plan

An operational support plan should identify resources and stakeholders available for handling a 1000-year storm surge in 2090. This part of the contingency plan should also make it clear what the roles of the different actors are and when the different actors are to get involved. Comprehensive disaster management is based upon four distinct components: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery (Coppola, 2007). The stakeholders’ roles in different stages of the scenario, is represented in table 2.

Trondheim municipality will hold high responsibility in coordinating the different stakeholders and resources, with help and guidance from other stakeholders with different competence within mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

The municipality has responsibilities in all phases of the flooding scenario and is therefore identified as the main stakeholder. The correlation between the different stakeholders is shown in figure 25.

Figure 25: Correlation between the stakeholders.

Table 2: The stakeholders’ roles in the different stages.

Stakeholders

Mitigation

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

National level Government and

Make laws demanding

Grant resources if needed in

Provide

ministries

resilience measures in areas

an emergency.

guidelines

prone to flooding.

on how to build up an area after a flooding incident.

The Norwegian

Offer operational support

Directorate for Civil

during crises within

Protection (DSB)

coordination, reinforcement and professional advice.

Norwegian Water

Inform the municipality of

Monitoring risk threats.

Provides advice and guidance

Resources and

where mitigation measures

to affected municipalities and

Energy Directorate

are needed.

the police during emergency

(NVE)

Can provide material or

situations.

financial assistance for measures to prevent damage Police and Fire

Educate community

department

members and workers.

Evacuation.

Remove flood water from site.

Watch out for people’s safety.

The Norwegian Public

Strengthening of

If roads are flooded:

Help build

Road Administration

transport infrastructure.

Control traffic and provide

up the road

information to the road users

network.

(NPRA)

about detours etc.

Regional level The county governor

Responsible for

and Trondheim

coordination between the

County

national and local level.

Local level Trondheim

Implement spatial,

Secure coordination

Municipality

technical and organizational

between different actors.

measures.

Responsible for the

Delegate tasks.

for recovery.

maintenance of water and sewage system.

Community members

Choose robust building

Evacuation of themselves

and landowners

materials.

and belongings.

Educate themselves on where safe places and exit routes are.

Red cross Trondheim

Participate in giving

Help evacuate people.

courses in saving of lives

Protecting cultural heritage.

and belongings.

Private actors Architects, engineers

Plan and implement the

and urban planners

spatial and technical measures.

Make plans

Budget The spatial, technical and organizational measures mentioned above will require financial resources.

Since the scenario states that Trondheim municipality have substantial resources, there is no need for prioritizing between measures and all of them can be implemented. Even though there is no problem with financing, it is wise to be aware of where the money is spent. For creating an overview, it is separated between measures being

of low, medium or high cost. This is shown in table 3 below, which also shows the stakeholder responsible for the given measure.

A lot of the resilience cost will be carried by the municipality, including the larger infrastructural measures.

However, by redistributing responsibilities, some costs will also be carried by other actors. The cost of reinforcing buildings, providing safe spaces, and creating flood communities might be relevant for private actors to carry.

Table 3: Responsible stakeholders and costs of measures.

Measure

Responsible stakeholder

Cost

Creating awareness Implementing a public risk framework

Trondheim municipality

+

Identify established groups that can help in case of an emergency

Trondheim municipality

+

Identify safe spaces and first responders

Trondheim municipality, landowners and stakeholders on site, identified established groups

+

Create communication platform

Trondheim municipality

++

Create storm surge information sheet

Trondheim municipality

+

Distribute storm surge information sheet

Trondheim municipality

+

Improve warning schemes

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)

Make coastal line into different levels

Trondheim municipality, planners, architects and engineers

+++

Reinforce buildings and infrastructure

Trondheim municipality, planners, architects and engineers

+++

Create blue-green structures Implement sponge city concept

Trondheim municipality, planners, architects and engineers

+++

Elevate bridges and streets

Trondheim municipality, planners, architects and engineers

+++

Create flood communities

Trondheim municipality. landowners and stakeholders on site

+

Redistribute responsibilities

Trondheim municipality, landowners and stakeholders on site, private developers

+

++

Discussion & Conclusion Preparing for climate change is a complex issue. We are not able to forecast the far future, but we know that the number and frequency of extreme weather incidents, like storm surges, are increasing. We therefore need to learn to live with uncertainty.

In the contingency plan, uncertainty at Brattøra was attempt looked upon as an opportunity for implementing resilience measures. Even with all measures mentioned in the contingency plan, the uncertainty will not disappear, but Brattøra might be able to handle what comes. Then the phrase “living with the water” becomes reality.

The paper is limited to look at the worst-case scenario based on data available today. The reason for this is that preparing for a 1000-year storm surge also will make Brattøra resilient to handle smaller storm surges. What must be said is that there will be a need for continuously updating the contingency plan as new knowledge about climate change and new prognosis arises. This might ensure that Brattøra stays resilient in events occurring also after 2090.

Preparing for a 1000-year storm surge happening in 2090 has led to propositions of implementation of a variety of measures. In additions to this, some preparedness-actions are suggested. The preparedness-actions and resilience measures summed up in figure 26 are answering the problem statement “What spatial, technical and organizational measures can be implemented to make Brattøra flood resilient given our scenario?”.

This figure also shows how the measures are to be implemented timewise. The aim is that the measures presented here will make Brattøra resilient to withstand a possible storm surge in the future. Raising awareness will create a feeling of responsibility and a will for taking resilience measures. Blue-green structures will create permeable spaces while at the same time bring joy to residents. Playing with levels at the seafront will also serve as a storm surge barrier while being an enjoyable space for walking/ cycling/sitting. In addition to physical measures, the lack of a disaster management authority has led to a focus on a participatory solution. Creating a communication platform creates a connection between stakeholders that might open for sharing

knowledge and resources.

This, together with a redistribution of responsibilities, might strengthen the feeling of “coming together”, and the community’s social capital increases. Spatial, technical and organizational measures aiming at changing both the physical environment and the mindsets of people, will change todays approach to handle flood risks. Just like HafenCity, the contingency plan takes an approach of moving away from the high focus on robustness, and towards adaptability and transformability.

For now, this contingency plan guides the development of Brattøra in the next 70 years.

Capacity increases, vulnerability decreases, and we avoid that a 1000-year storm surge happening in 2090 turns into a disaster.

Figure 26: Measures presented in a timeline.

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Simpson, M. J. R., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Ravndal, O. R., Breili, K., Sande, H., Kierulf, H. P., Steffen, H., Jansen, E., Carson, M., Vestøl O. (2015). Sea level change for Norway. Post and present observations and projections to 2100. (NCCS report, no. 1/2015).

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April 2021).

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Figures Figure 1: Overview picture of Trondheim (Unknown, 2008) Figure 2: Overview picture of Brattøra (Trondheim Havn, 2008) Figure 3: A section of the municipal master plan 2012-2024 for Trondheim, showing Brattøra.

(Trondheim kommune, 2014) Figure 4: Location of Brattøra (self-made) Figure 5: Overview of the building types (selfmade) Figure 6: Features of Brattøra (self-made) Figure 7: Accessibility at Brattøra (self-made) Figure 8: Landmarks at Brattøra (Kulturminnesøk, n.d.)

Figure 9: Pictures of Brattøra (self-taken) Figure 10: Flood at Brattøra in 2019 due to a storm surge. (NTB scanpix, 2019) Figure 11: Flood at Brattøra in 2019 due to a storm surge. (NTB scanpix, 2019) Figure 12: Hypothetical storm surges with 20-, 200- and 1000 year-intervals, now, in 2050 and in 2090. (Self-made) Figure 13: Interest and power of the stakeholders.

Figure 14: Overview picture of HafenCity (KCAP, n.d.)

Figure 15: HafenCity: Costal line in different levels (KCAP, n.d.)

Figure 16: HafenCity: Costal line in different levels (KCAP, n.d.)

Figure 17: Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape, n.d.)

Figure 18: C Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape, n.d.)

Figure 19: Figure 19: Pujiang in China (Courtesy of Turenscape, n.d.)

Figure 20: Overview of the locations of the measures and sponge areas.

Figure 21: Section i from figure 20: Costal line in different levels , with water stream, bicycle and pedesttian lane and vegetation.

Figure 22: Section ii from figure 20: Costal line with marshy land, vegetation and staircase.

Figure 23: Section i from figure 20. Pedestrian and cyclist lane, water stream, marchy land and vegetation.

Figure 24: Section ii from figure 20. Marchy and green land.

Figure 25: Correlation between the stakeholders.

Figure 26: Measures presented in a timeline.

Tables Table 1: Consquence and probability (DSB, 2016) Table 2: The stakeholders’ roles in the different stages.

Table 3: Responsible stakeholders and costs of measures.

Contingency planning for Midtbyen Group 6 Emma Haugen Gamme Elham Abdollahzadeh Suzie Shrestha Thanks to: Paridhi Gairola Till Zeyn

Source: trondheim2030.no

Introduction As increasing urbanization and climate change characterize today’s society, urban floods have become a rising problem. This can contribute to major floods, building damage and in the worstcase cost human lives (NGI, n.d.).

Heavy rainfall is particularly challenging in flat areas where hard surfaces are not able to infiltrate big amounts of water. Urban floods occur when the amount of participation exceeds the capacity of urban water systems (ArcGIS, 2014). More frequent and more intense rainfall periods, urban densification, and lack of maintenance of technical solutions are major challenges for traditional surface water systems.

Uncertainties are related to climate change in the face of urban floods. It is of great importance that planners understand and cope with uncertainties, leading to proper handling and decision-making processes (Zandvoort, Vlist, Klijn, & Brink, 2018).

By introducing a flexible and adaptable contingency plan that identifies uncertainties, we have created a response approach to achieve future resilience goals through the supportive network of various stakeholders. Here, we also emphasize the importance of engaging the local community for communities at risk (Corburn, 2003).

For this assignment, we have selected Midtbyen as our case area as seen in figure 1. The contingency plan that we propose will focus on immediate and long term measures related to the hypothetical scenario. Immediate response strategies address human aspects of warning and evacuation, while long-term prevention seeks to improve these aspects, as well as engaging the local community and reducing the surface run-off water and its impact.

Figure 1: The study area - Midtbyen

Scenario The scenario states that Trondheim is a very highdensity city and is prone to floods due to heavy rainfall. Here, the municipality has limited financial resources and does not have a disaster management authority. Within the given constraints, we have formulated a hypothesis to emphasize the factors we highlight in this assignment:

High-density city

Prone to floods due to heavy rainfall

Heavy rainfall in Midtbyen will create urban floods as water will accumulate in flat terrain with hard surfaces. Climate change and increased water flow in the Nidelva river will create further problems and can potentially trigger quick clay landslides within the area.

The municipality has limited financial resorces

No disaster management authority

Methodology In the first stage, the study started with visiting the site, taking pictures of the study area, and spotting the weakness and strength points of the Midtbyen area when facing flood and heavy rain.

The next step was collecting data with academic approaches suitable for low-resource contexts.

The data were mainly from articles, journals, municipality reports, maps, and images.

The history of flood events and the solutions the municipality of Trondheim implemented to tackle the problems caused by heavy rain were discussed.

Mapping stakeholders and analysing them through a power-interest diagram were provided to identify the organizations and institutions that influence Mitbyen. Similar cases and best practices in managing and planning for future challenges to prevent flooding were introduced.

SITE ANALYSIS In this site analysis, Midtbyen will be examined through historical development, the current situation, and future challenges. Midtbyen is the traditional centre in Trondheim, located between the Nidelva river and the sea. The main traffic routes are from Ila in the west and the Elgeseter bridge in the south. There are several pedestrian bridges that connect the peninsula to the mainland. The city center is an important area for trade, culture, and business.

Figure 2: Buildings marked with colour are classified as cultural heritage. Red buildings are preserved, and violet ground colour means preserved ground (Trondheim

Historical heritage

municipality, 2019).

In Midtbyen we find the highest density of cultural monuments worthy of preservation. Both the built environment and the urban spaces are of cultural and historical value, including old wooden houses and Nidarosdomen cathedral (figure 3) (Trondheim municipality, 2013).

Here, the structures from all phases of Trondheim’s millennial history are marked in figure 2. Considering the cultural-historical whole of Midtbyen, and the city’s role in Norwegian history, this part of the city is of national interest.

Figure 3: The cathedral church of Nidarosdomen (Jazzfest, n.d.).

Figure 4: The pier alongside Nidelva from 1909 (Trondheim municipality, 2015).

Nature and landscape The Nidelva river encompasses a large part of the Midtbyen area. Other than the river sides, most parts are almost flat with a slight slope towards north (figure 5). In the centre of the area, the built environment is of high-density apartment buildings. While most of the surface is covered by hard structures, there are some green areas within the centre area.

Analyzing maps from different years, we see that there has been a slight increase in green areas from the 1950s and up until today (figure 6). The bigger park surrounding Nidarosdomen is sloping towards the river. Most of the area is slightly sloping towards the seaside in the north, which will

Figure 5: Topography map of the case area (FramtidsTrondheim, n.d.).

lead surface water in this direction.

Perceived risks and threats The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has mapped the flood danger for the Nidelva river, where it appears that buildings closest to the river may be flooded in the future (NVE, n.d.). The calculations are based on current sea levels and do not include the expected impact of sea level rise on water levels. In the event of heavy rainfall, the flood situation will have an impact on the densely populated and flat area in the city center.

Figure 6: There has been a slight increase in green structures and trees from the 1950s, here showing a map from 1999 (Norgeibilder, 1999)

.

Due to high density built areas and few and limited green areas, there will be problems with absorbing runoff water from heavy rainfall. This can cause urban floods, which is a rising problem due to urbanisation and climate changes. Flooding in such areas can have a huge economic impact.

Some areas of Midtbyen are exposed to quick clay landslides, with a danger level of 4 as seen in figure 9. Although the probability of triggering is not very high, such a landslide will potentially have fatal consequences and create major material damage.

Large amounts of precipitation will affect erosion in the Nidelva river, which in turn can be a trigger mechanism for such a landslide.

Figure 7: Green Infrastructure in Midtbyen - green structures marked in red (Norgeibilder.no).

As a result of snowmelt in the spring, the Nidelva will have an increased water flow. Climate change could change this cycle, and combined with large amounts of precipitation have a potential impact on amounts of water in the river. The climate profile for Trøndelag county warns of an increased probability of heavy rainfall in intensity

and frequency, which will lead to problems with surface water (Norsk klimaservicesenter, 2016).

Heavy and short-term precipitation can cause large amounts of surface water that can create urban floods, which will cause damage to buildings and infrastructure. If the drainage system is not separated, sewage water may come to the surface if the system overflows. This could potentially lead to people infected and even deceased if they are in contact with such water (Grande, 2018).

Impermeable surfaces such as paved areas and parking allow quick runoff. The problems with surface water will be greater in late winter when the ground is still frozen, and ice and snow might block the manholes. The climate profile report also warns of more and larger rain floods, as well as greater probabilities of landslides, floods and mudslides as a result of increased rainfall.

It is recommended to consider almost 70 cm as a climate surcharge for sea level rise for this area of Trøndelag (Norsk klimaservicesenter, 2016).

This could lead to larger mixtures of seawater with freshwater in the Nidelva river, and potential ecological consequences. Due to rising sea levels, the level of storm surge will also increase. Different weather phenomena will often be able to occur simultaneously and reinforce each other, which makes it even more important to foresee possible consequences (figure 8).

Potential impacts Figure 10 shows the potential impacts of heavy rainfall in Midtbyen. Combined with climate surcharge and further urbanisation, both the probability and consequences of events will thus be exacerbated. There are also possible impacts on people that are not implemented in the table.

In case of sudden flooding and subsequent effects, people will be in danger if they are not evacuated in time.

Figure 8: There are also areas in Midtbyen with the contaminated ground, where runoff to the sea and river will have negative consequences (Miljødirektoratet, n.d.).

Figure 9: The figure is an overlay of areas in Midtbyen that are more vulnerable or more impacted by heavy rains and flood. (Source: created by authors)

PROBABILITY OF EVENT

Figure 10: The figure ranges possible events based on probability and consequences of occurence. The distribution of events is based on existing research and our own assumptions. (Source: authors) Erosion of river bank

Disruption of traffic and transportation Destruction of cultural heritage

Sea level rising

Urban flood

Water contamination if

Destroyed buildings

Flood in Nidelva

Collapse in drainage system

Quick clay landslides

drainage system overflows

Mix of seawater and river

Economic damage for residents and business

Loss of electricity

Contamination of drinking water

Deceased or infected people

CONSEQUENCES OF EVENT

STAKEHOLDERS

and emergency preparedness locally, regionally and nationally (DSB, 2021). The DSB Midt-Norge region is responsible for the regional level.

The stakeholders were identified in three main levels of national, regional, and local, while some of these stakeholders operate in all three levels. In the diagram below, the related stakeholders to the case study at all levels are illustrated.

NVE: The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate manages Norway’s water and energy resources. They contribute to sustainable energy usage by promoting efficient energy markets and cost-effective energy systems. NVE is responsible for maintaining national power supplies and plays a crucial role in national flood contingency planning (NVE, 2021).

USAR: USAR stands for “urban search and rescue” and defines an urban rescue group that will search and operate rescue safely in wholly or partially collapsed buildings, ditches, installations, landslides and similar (NRBR, 2021).

PO W ER

DSB: Risk, vulnerability, and emergency preparedness are some of the several responsibilities of DSB (Direktoratet for Samfunnssikkerhet og Beredskap) at different levels. DSB provides regulations, guidelines, topic guides and fact sheets on public safety, prevention

Midtbyen management group: Midtbyen Management works for an attractive and vibrant Midtby in Trondheim. The organisation will help ensure that the city centre in Trondheim is an easily accessible, safe, clean and well-maintained area, well adapted for industry, trade and leisure (Midtbyen Management, 2021). The Midtbyen management group works in cooperation with Trondheim municipality and Trondheim Gårdeierforening AS to promote the interests of the farm owner in the centre of Trondheim and also ensure that beautifying and urban renewal measures are implemented.

NGOs: The NGO “The future is in our hands” is a student team with a branch in Trondheim. The aim is to work on small and large projects related to an environmentally friendly lifestyle.

Red Cross: The Trondheim Red Cross was founded in 1905 and has worked with over 1000 volunteers to uncover, prevent and alleviate humanitarian distress in Trondheim city. The Trondheim Red Cross is working with the municipality and the emergency services to make Trondheim a safer city (Trondheim Røde Kors, 2021).

The stakeholder analysis is illustrated through a power-interest diagram as seen in figure 11.

The government The ministries

USAR

Inter sectional

Trøndelag Municipality

DSB

Red cross

Trondheim Municipality

NVE

NGOs

National

NVE

Trondheim Gårdeierforening

National heritage board

Regional

Local

I NT ER EST Figure 11: Stakeholders power-interest analysis

BEST PRACTICES Rapid urbanization, the concentration of economic activities, and climate change are the cause of many disasters in cities all around the world. Urban flooding is one such common phenomenon. The unplanned constructions and impervious areas lead to developed catchments which further increase flood peaks and flood volumes. Following are some examples of significant urban floods and practices used to mitigate and improve the situations.

Hyderabad, India Major floods in Hyderabad were witnessed during 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2016, 2014, 2016 and 2020 mainly due to the major urbanization of Hyderabad which started after 1990. These floods resulted in massive property damage and some loss of human lives and livelihoods. Stormwater management was further challenged due to clogged up drains, unauthorized encroachments of river beds. Urbanisation in Hyderabad led to hard surfaces and impervious areas that led to an increase in the run-off rate. The results exceeded the design capacity of the stormwater drainage system resulting in urban floods from small amounts of rainfall.

This pushed the city and GHMC (Municipality) to implement and adopt certain strategies to manage urban runoff.

1. Households implemented green roofs and substituted impervious areas like driveways and walkways with greener alternatives like grass and native vegetation to decrease runoff.

2. New constructions used low impact methods, such as maximising surface roughness and increased infiltration opportunities and flow paths.

Copenhagen, Denmark A 1000-year flood event descended upon Copenhagen in July 2011. The city faced the floods again in 2014. The floods were a direct result of a torrential downpour of stormwater. There was a massive loss to infrastructure and severe traffic disruption due to the floods (up to almost 6 billion DKK). Since then, the city planners, policymakers and other stakeholders involved came up with several strategies to mitigate effects. They came up with the Copenhagen Climate Adaptation Plan and the ‘Cloudburst Management Plan’ in 2012.

The primary steps to mitigate the flood damage is to make the city resilient to extreme rainfalls. This could be done in many ways, as suggested in the plan (City of Copenhagen, 2012).

1. Futureproofing and improving sewerage systems and ensuring segregated waste water and rainwater line.

2. Places where floods will cause minimal damage like parks, sports grounds can be substituted as catchment areas. These ‘storages’ should be supplemented with measures to drain water to the sea.

3. Increase of blue-green infrastructure along with places to store the stormwater. More green spaces like parks, rain gardens and canals would help mitigate the floods. Further, using the stormwater to recharge ground water is also beneficial.

4. Setting an acceptable flood water level that does not damage or disrupt life and enables roads to be used as a drainage channel (In Copenhagen, this is set at 10cm).

3. Local authorities partner with private businesses and interest groups to spread awareness and aid affected areas.

4. On an engineering level, more pavements are being replaced by more previous surfaces and rainwater harvesting structures are being implemented by households and municipalities.

5. Furthermore, flood mitigation processes like sensitization and training programs, risk mapping of vulnerable areas, etc. are being implemented.

This would teach citizens to live with floods and be prepared in case of recurring events (Ahmed et al., 2013).

Figure 12: Copenhagen Flooded, July 4, 2011 (copenhagenize, 2015)

Findings from best practices The following table sums up the findings that would be beneficial to our scenario:

CASE STUDY Hyderabad, India

Copenhagen, Denmark

REASON The city is densely populated and has a gray infrastructure.

It also has limited financial resources. Though there is a disaster management authority, it has not been very significant in mitigating the damages due to urban flooding. The approach is more community oriented than depending on local authorities.

The city is similar to Trondheim in its density, topographical and climatic location. Furthermore, it has similar architectural quality and land-use. In this scenario, it is well funded and has an equipped disaster management authority. The suggestions are more suited to be applied by local authorities than community.

BEST PRACTICES

• Encouraging households to adapt green practices like green roof with native vegetation and previous walkways and sidewalks.

• Help of private businesses, interest groups and NGOs to spread awareness and aid affected areas.

• Sensitization and training programs to prepare citizens in case of recurring events.

• Open spaces like parks and sports ground to be used as substitute catchment areas with well equipped drainage systems to mitigate the floods and increase resilience.

• Increase of blue-green systems in public spaces. This could be through tactical urbanism like micro-gardens and planter boxes. Stormwater can also be used to recharge ground water.

• Setting an acceptable level for flood water to use roads as drains without disrupting functioning.

CONTINGENCY PLAN The contingency plan consists of 6 sections: The Scenario, Response Strategy, Implementation Plan, Operational Support Plan, Preparedness Plan and Budget.

This plan will be important in the process of making Midtbyen a more resilient community in the face of natural hazards. Using Berke and Lyle’s definition of resilience, we have transformed the concept into our current hypothesis (2013): “Resilience is the ability for the Midtbyen community to resist and absorb the impacts of urban flooding, rapidly recover from such impacts and to further reduce related vulnerabilities”.

In order to strengthen the responsiveness of our case area, we introduce both immediate and long-term measures. The immediate measures comprise community response and evacuation aid. The long-term preventions seek to improve those social responses but also address physical interventions for hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation.

Scenario Our given scenario provides the basis for the contingency plan and will be useful in gaining consensus in the face of a potential crisis. Given the constraints of our scenario our defined hypothesis creates the basis for further development of the contingency plan:

Heavy rainfall in Midtbyen will create urban floods as water will accumulate in flat terrain with hard surfaces. Climate change and increased water flow in the Nidelva river will create further problems, and can potentially trigger quick clay landslides within the area.

High-density Midtbyen is a highly dense part of the city, consisting essentially of apartment and business buildings ranging from three to five floors. Functions located on the first floor are most exposed to urban flooding. Buildings located along the riverside and the seafront are respectively prone to increased water flow in Nidelva and sea level rise. Largely built-up areas will cause problems with absorbing and delaying surface water.

Heavy rainfall We assume that heavy rainfall will emerge more frequently and intensely in the future, as predicted by the climate profile for Trøndelag county (Norsk klimaservicesenter, 2016). In this high-density case area, this will cause challenges with larger amounts of run-off water. Climate changes will create further problems, and might also impact water flow in the Nidelva river.

No disaster management authority Lack of a disaster management authority will potentially create chaotic conditions if a natural hazard were to occur. In order to organize both immediate and long-term measures, there will be a need for transdisciplinary cooperation that also involves the inhabitants.

Limited financial resources Increased precipitation will cause problems with handling surface water. Limited financial resources make it necessary to prioritize simple measures, and not focus on expensive drainage systems. By further involving locals and private stakeholders there is a possibility to implement measures within constraints, despite the limited financial resources.

The cultural and historical context of the site makes it possible to raise foundations or benefit from tourism.

The study area is

Flood due to

The city has NO DISASTER

Limited FINANCIAL

HIGHLY DENSE

HEAVY RAINFALL

MANAGEMENT authority

RESOURCES

Response strategy The response strategy marks the overarching goals to face the occurrence of a hazardous event and prevent it from happening. Therefore, we distinguish between the immediate response and the long term prevention in our strategy.

Immediate response

very likely and need to be expected. To improve the situation the warning system should become more established and improved. By informing and engaging local communities the awareness of existing dangers can be raised. Besides these organizational changes, additional physical measures are necessary. The overall goal is to reduce the surface runoff, its impact and ideally to make use of it.

The immediate response is needed when a hazardous event is occurring before long term prevention measures take effect. It focuses on warning inhabitants and rescuing and evacuating people from vulnerable areas. Such areas are in the south-eastern part of the area with its clay and in the northern parts where surface water is accumulating due to the slope towards the north.

In accordance with Berke and Lyles principles for hazard mitigation plans, we have formulated the following goals for the future conditions in Midtbyen case area:

Long term prevention

• Protect public safety.

In order to be able to prevent severe impacts of heavy rainfall in the future, physical and organizational changes need to be taken.

• Reduce property damage, especially on cultural heritage.

Otherwise, high impacts of heavy rainfall are

• Identify vulnerable groups and promote equity.

Figure 13: Trondheim Torvet, Clicked by auther

• Enhance local community resilience.

• Protect and enhance green and permeable areas that support hazard mitigation.

• Reduce economic impacts.

Implementation plan This implementation plan focuses on how physical interventions concerning nature-based solutions would be structured and implemented. Trade-offs from such interventions will be beneficial both in a short-term and in a long-term perspective. There is already a lot of literature that addresses the warning and evacuation of people, which is why we would not go into detail on these matters.

To strengthen the immediate response to heavy rainfall, the local warning system should be improved to allow the preparation of sites for heavy rainfall with personal barriers (like sandbags) and enough time to leave the area to prevent losses.

To allow preparation, an appropriate warning system is essential to reach all people within a specific area. A warning application can fulfil these requirements by, for instance, sharing information in different languages. Developing an application just for a singular event or a singular municipality isn’t meaningful and counterproductive when each municipality has their own warning application working only in a specific area.

To maximize the usage more municipalities in

Norway, preferably all, should be involved. It would also share the costs and hence minimize the costs for Trondheim municipality. Similar systems are existing in other countries, for example in Germany (emergency information and notice application, called “NINA”), for all existing emergency situations (eg. weather, hazardous substances, fires, flooding) in different languages (BBK n.d.).

On the other hand, the prevention strategy aims to reduce the impacts of heavy rainfall events in Midtbyen. The area is stamped by hard surfaces so that water accumulates over time and will probably lead to an over-extending of existing water-handling and sewage systems. The main objective is to reduce surface runoff and delay the remaining masses down so that they do not over exceed the systems.

Since Midtbyen is quite dense and contains many important functions, It would be difficult to find the space to create retention areas and reduce hard surfaces in appreciable numbers. Therefore, there is a need to focus on spaces that are not used justifiably or to their fullest capacities. In Midtbyen remarkable numbers of black roofs exist

Figure 14: Potential green roofs in the case study area (Source: authors work using norgeibilder.no as background map)

(figure 14). These are mostly unused and could be more or less easily transferred into green roofs.

Especially in parts of the city centre where only a few green infrastructures exist they could unfold a great potential.

To expand the green infrastructures further, tactical urbanism can be used as a focal method. Microgreens can be added all over the place in Midtbyen in portable planting boxes. They can be placed on squares, in streets, or on former parking lots and will lead simultaneously to a more attractive city. The soil and vegetation will have additional evapotranspiration effects on the expanding green roofs. More water can be stored and thus slowly released. Whenever additional space is needed for some events in Midtbyen, the planting boxes are quite easy to displace and rearrange.

The main strategy is to reduce surface runoff and delay it but to further ensure that waste-water systems are not over-extending, a separate water infrastructure system should be expanded over Midtbyen. This is in accordance with integrating nature-based solutions with other, more technical solutions (Cohen-Shacham, Walters, Janzen, & Maginnis, 2016).

The goal is to separate surface runoff from sewage water to prevent contamination and needed treatment. Whenever repairing on the existing systems is needed additional surface water pipes should be installed, when not already existing.

Thereby it can be secured that remaining surface run-off water can be derived without bigger impacts.

Figure 15: Separate surface runoff from sewage water (Trondheim2030, 2019)

Figure 16: Standard construction of green roof (City of Hamburg 2017)

GREEN ROOF SPECIFICATIONS Extensive green roof

Intensive green roof

Thickness

8 – 15 cm

> 15 cm

Costs

150 – 500 NOK/sqm

≥ 500 NOK/Sqm

Vegetation type

Mostly meadowvegetation

Allows gardening and bigger vegetation

Water absorption

Absorbs up to 50 % of rain water

Absorbs up to 90 % of rain water (>50 cm)

Function

Reducing and delaying (around 3 hours) water masses drastically.

Retention in summertime is in the mean even higher.

Behaviour at extreme weather events is not totally clear yet, so no cost-effective proposal for setting up green roofs especially for extreme weather events can be made so far.

Cost efficiency

More expensive than black roofs (gravel or roofing fabric), but also more durable and higher energy savings – cheaper over a 40 year period (see figure in Appendix).

Total structure costs

Costs around 1 % of the total building costs (when building more storey structures).

Functionality

Green roofs reduce rainfall runoff water by storing it in the substrate-layer, also called medium-layer, and on the plant surface. Over time water is released again by evapotranspiration (evaporation from the substrate and transpiration from plants) so that a slow release of the rainwater is happening. This also leads to a cooling of the roof surface and lowers the need for air conditioning and by its insulation characteristics also heating in wintertime.

Side effects

• Noise levels are reduced • Reduced air pollution and enhanced filtration effects • Enhanced biodiversity (more habitats for flora and fauna) Figure 17: Source: City of Hamburg 2017; Richter and Dickhaut 2016

main stakeholders in this contingency plan and the interaction between them.

Through this section of the operational support plan, the relevant resources and stakeholders are identified. Here, administrative, logistical and other support requirements of response are highlighted.

It is imperative to understand the needs relative to the local context in order to respond in a manner that will be appropriate for the locals. Limited resources and no disaster management authority further makes it crucial to strengthen the existing systems and give priority to the local community and their participation.

NTNU: Doing research on risk mapping of vulnerable areas

We also focus on adaptive and flexible crosssectoral cooperation that will better integrate climate considerations. Figure 18 illustrates the

Departments: Police and firefighters

AtB: Cooperating when evacuation is needed Adresseavisa (local paper): Distributing information and awareness Meteorological institute: Severe weather alerts Riksantikvaren: Preserving cultural heritage Red cross: Organizing voluntary groups, evacuation etc.

Voluntary flood fighting teams (coordinated by private stakeholders and local inhabitants)

The ministries USAR

NVE

Regional

DSB - region midt-Norge Trøndelag Fire and Rescue Service NVE - region midt-Norge Trøndelag County Municipality

Trondheim municipality

Local

Mitbyen management group Tromdheim heritage board NGOs NTNU

ATB

Land owners

Voluntary flood fighting teams

Adresseavisa

Meteorological institute

Figure 18: Operational support plan

Red Cross

The government

DSB: National, regional and local security and emergency preparedness

National

Operational support plan

Preparedness plan To be prepared before a potential crisis following our given scenario, we will in this section identify actions to improve responsiveness within the case area. Although we focus on building resilience by taking the long view, the preparedness plan also identifies different steps of immediate measures.

In accordance with limited resources given our scenario, the plan will engage with inhabitants through principles of area-based approaches (Sanderson, 2019).

Emergency response As people affected by disasters often call for smarter help instead of more help, there is a need for humanitarian response strategies that treat the city and its inhabitants as resources (Sanderson, 2019). Working with existing structures and collaborating management, area-based measures put people in the middle and have the potential to be scaled up. Both in the immediate and long term, it will be important to improve warning systems, evacuation plans and information is given. This includes: • Addressing social factors and acknowledging and protecting more vulnerable groups.

• Improve (early)warning systems.

• Planning evacuation routes and shelters using local schools, town houses and cultural houses.

• Establish an information sharing platform for everyone affected, using existing channels as social media and local newspapers.

• Coordinating private stakeholders with local inhabitants through voluntary flood fighting teams.

• Provide clear information to visitors in public spaces about limited use during periods of highwater levels and precipitation.

Separate infrastructure For areas prone to flooding, it is of big importance to remove surface water from the drainage systems to improve its capacity. Separating those systems will reduce the strain in the sewage treatment works and will result in lower operational costs. This could be done by creating own pipes for wastewater and surface water, that could lead out to a river, stream or the fjord (Trondheim municipality, 2013).

A separated system also allows for rainwater harvesting, where stormwater can be used as a sustainable resource. This can be also accommodated in new constructions, thus holding the community and inhabitants responsible and lessening the loads on the municipality.

The municipality already has developed a longterm strategy to make a transition from mixed systems towards separate systems. This will be a protracted process where other measures would be needed, as this is a costly operation that also could be problematic in regard to cultural heritage buildings (Trondheim municipality, 2013).

Figure 19: cross-section of Trondheim Torg, the main square. Here potential separate infrastructure is visualised, as well as other green measures including green roofs and tactical urbanism.

(Source: Authors)

Although our scenario gives constraints as for resources, the separating of pipe infrastructure would be a long-term measure as a part of the municipalities work on renewing the system.

Implementation of a separate system through incremental steps would be more cost efficient in the long run, as costs related to potential damage will be mitigated. Figure 19 demonstrates how separate systems may function for the area of Trondheim square.

Improving existing infrastructure Due to limited financial resources, it becomes imperative to distribute runoff loads on as many existing systems as possible. Existing infrastructure needs to be maintained, and these can be marked and improved to delay and reduce surface water runoff. Some of the practices that can be incorporated are: • Old paved blocks can be replaced with more permeable materials that will lessen stormwater runoff and also recharge groundwater levels.

• Existing green areas like parks, football fields and landscaped areas around heritage sites can incorporate rainbeds/gardens. Native plants can be grown on them to reduce seasonal maintenance.

• Open areas with hard surfaces like parking zones or sports areas lying in low-heighted zones can be used as catchments and dry reservoirs.

• Existing roads can be made to carry acceptable levels of runoff water, reducing loads on existing drainage systems, further reducing chances of contamination.

Green structures Urban densification and expected increase in heavy rainfall are problems that also need measures to reduce runoff peaks and limit additional amounts of surface water to drainage systems. Protection and enhancement of green infrastructures consist of physical measures that need to be integrated across local communities and private stakeholders.

Land use in the catchment area combined with the nature of the ground and the degree of the slope will be crucial for the choice of solutions.

Implementation of nature based solutions will contribute to disaster risk reduction, functioning as barriers or buffers, protect built structures and support the quicker recovery of society (CohenShacham et al., 2016).

Today, the biggest obstacles for local surface water management in Trondheim are lack of space in dense urban areas, political priorities, conflicts of interests and neighbour resistance (Asplan Viak, 2016).

Implementing green structures to reduce the risk of urban flooding will contribute to a more attractive cityscape that both local inhabitants and businesses will benefit from, and thus involving peoplecentered actions and multi-agency participatory assessments should be easier. It is a high priority to involve local residents in this process through meetings, workshops e.g., so that we avoid some of the obstacles mentioned. This is also in line with our limited resources. The implementation of green structures in Midtbyen includes: •

Campaigning for green roof strategies and possibilities for urban gardening.

• Setting up a fund for green roofs to give financial incentives for pilot projects and. make projects financially attractive.

• Involve key actors for local communities to provide information and engage. communities (eg. in workshops for building planting boxes and rain beds).

Green roofs

Rainbeds

• Make use of tactical urbanism to green the city (eg. planting boxes) and using open areas as catchments for rain water.

Figure 20: cross-section of permeable pavers.

Such pavers allow stormwater to infiltrate into underlying soils promoting pollutant treatment and groundwater recharge. (watershedcouncil.org)

• Add vegetation in slope areas prone to erosion.

• Mapping vulnerable areas most prone to urban floods.

Resuing open areas as catchments

Figure 21: Cross section of existing environment in Midtbyen, sloping towards the river. This area will be exposed to risks from natural hazards, such as urban flooding and the overflowing of the river.

(Source: Authors)

Figure 22: Cross-section of the same site, with potential for applying nature based solutions for hazard mitigation as green roofs, added vegetation, tactical urbanism and rainbeds. (Source: Authors) Long term regulations A plan for managing surface water must be a premise laid at the beginning of planning processes, which should be the backbone of the development of areas and individual projects. With authority from the municipality, a set of regulations will be proposed for all future development of the area within Midtbyen.

• “Vulnerable” functions, such as residential purposes on the first or lower floors in exposed areas will not be allowed

• Minimum permeable surfaces should be preserved in connection with heritage buildings, or other measures should be taken that prevents those values from further dangers in case of densification • Set requirements for locally delaying surface water (e.g. green roofs) for all new developments, according to the municipality’s water and wastewater standards • New roads should be designed to function as drainage channels without disrupting the functioning

Budget

DISCUSSION

Table illustrated in figure 24 encompasses the economic costs for different steps identified in the preparedness plan. The physical interventions listed in the table, will in the long run be more cost effective than maintenance of existing structures.

Those measures will also be risk reducing in the face of increased urban flooding and climate surcharge. Besides, it can increase the urban living quality in this area.

Our conducted site analysis highlights the fact that Midtbyen will potentially suffer from impacts of heavy rainfall, and that climate surcharge and further urbanisation will increase such hazards.

The given scenario creates constraints that are not exactly relatable to the current situation of the case area regarding limited resources and no disaster management authority.

Considering the huge number of historical and cultural heritage within Midtbyen, there are possibilities to get resources to secure these at a national level. In regard to the limited resources available, it could also be possible to raise foundations and tourist taxes in accordance with heritage buildings. Such resources could supplement contribution from private stakeholders and local inhabitants and initially be used for green measures securing these buildings.

However, the hypothesis we formulated focuses on the potential impacts of urban flooding, which is proven to be problematic in many cities all over the world. We used local knowledge, detailed analysis and mapping to create area-based approaches for the contingency plan. Regardless of financial resources, there should be a shifting focus from costly engineering solutions to more local and nature-based solutions. This, we have also stated, will give several trade-offs and be the most cost effective for the long run.

The budget can also incorporate awards and incentives to promote infrastructure that are directly connected to the community. For example, the construction of rainwater harvesting, storage tanks and green roofs in households can have tax rebates and other similar incentives.

In the initial phase of the project, we tried to reach out to the municipality to clarify whether they incorporate green structures in surface water management but did not receive any answer.

Although, comprehensive investigations and readings on existing reports gave us many answers

Figure 23: Riverside, clicked by author

Long term regulations

Physical interventions

Emergency response

Measure

Response

Budget

warning app (improved early municipality, region, state warning system)

+

evacuation routes and shelters

Trondheim Red Cross, voluntary groups and community housing

++

information sharing plattform

Volunteers and local inhabitants

+

identifying vulnerable groups Community, NTNU

+

fund for green roofs and green roofs on public buildings as pilot projects

municipality, private stakeholders, NTNU

++

tactical urbanism (material for planting boxes and plants)

municipality with local community +

dry reservoirs

municipality

rain beds

municipality with local community +

urban gardening

local community

+

Separating drainage system

municipality, water and wastewater providers/ engineers

+++

changing building regulations as proposed above

local politics

o – no

++

direct costs for the municipality

Figure 24: The table ranges interventions from low costs (+) to high costs(+++).

on what strategies the municipalities are bound or encouraged to use.

Limited financial resources and no disaster management authority made us focus on involving the local community and private stakeholders.

Using a community approach, the society of Midtbyen will not rely on external disaster management authority. The accountability of municipality involvement could rather be a long term process, as we initially facilitate disaster management from the community itself in this contingency plan. Further, we argue that communities should, regardless of circumstances, facilitate broad participation. This will strengthen democratic processes in the community, as well as giving a valuable contribution to decision making processes.

The current Covid-19 situation reinforces the need for society to work together to withstand and solve wicked problems. Like in the case of the pandemic, communities facing natural hazards depend on comprehensive measures involving cross-sectional collaboration. If we had had a disaster management authority, this would be easier to carry out. But for our scenario, the voluntary flood fighting team, local community and private stakeholders would, to some extent, be able to coordinate solutions both in a short-term and in a long-term perspective.

Based on our readings and live examples, it is noted that contingency plans need to be constantly updated and improved as per the circumstances.

Whether it be the right technology, community collaboration or funding, there is a need to adapt to the changing times for contingency planning to be successful.

CONCLUSION Building community resilience towards natural hazards has proven to be a complex process that should involve various actors at different levels.

In this contingency plan, we have introduced both immediate and long term measures to reduce the risk of urban flooding in Midtbyen. Highlighting nature based solutions would be important to resist and absorb potential impacts of flooding.

This will also be beneficial in recovery processes of such events, and for further reducing related vulnerabilities that might be rising due to climate change. Building community resilience should always involve local stakeholders and existing structures, which is what we have emphasized given the constraints of our hypothetical scenario.

Engaging the community will also be crucial for a well-functioning implementation of the contingency plan. Although our approach is context specific, we believe the contingency plan to be so flexible and adaptable that it can be scaled up or used for similar scenarios.

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