Earthquakes: What You can Expect for the Next Few Years

Nadav Lowell (’25)

Last Week’s Solution

On February 6th and 7th dual magnitude, 7 earthquakes struck Turkey and Syria and caused massive destruction and loss of life. Typically, earthquakes are barely detectable and cause no real harm to buildings or infrastructure. However, on occasion a much higher magnitude earthquake can occur, and when this happens many lives are put at risk. What happened in Turkey and Syria is that the Arabian tectonic plate shifted past the Anatolian plate, in what's called a transform fault. These earthquakes have shown the world that cities must look into these dangers and protect their citizens in the future. The question is how do we do that and what can we do to prepare?

To answer this I have turned to a longtime member of the Memphis Jewish community and geologist: Dr. Kutliroff. Dr. Kutliroff explained the following about the nature of earthquakes. He said, “The key to dealing with earthquakes is that they work cyclically”. This means that we can determine through geology and research that certain areas are prone to high-magnitude earthquakes that repeat after a given amount of time. For example, in Israel, the Arabian plate and the Anatolian plate move apart at about 4 MM a year. This tension builds up over time and consistently leads to large earthquakes in the area every 80 years or so. Here in Memphis, we can expect to get high-magnitude quakes are still not to be taken lightly and can result in serious infrastructure and property damage if not properly prepared for. Researchers estimate that we get about 200 minor scale earthquakes in Memphis every year with the occasional level 3 (which gives off a tremor that we can feel but little lasting damage). About every fifty years we get to magnitude 5 and 6s which increase in number when juxtaposed with level 7 earthquakes. Another aspect that can affect the outcome of an earthquake is the earth of the land in question.

The last time this has happened was in 1811-1812 the same period when the Mississippi rose to the level it sits today.

Of course, these predictions are very rough and have large amounts of leeway involved. The next earthquake could be much sooner than expected so we must be prepared. So we know that there are smaller earthquakes that happen regularly, and there are powerful earthquakes that occur cyclically. What about medium-yield earthquakes? Dr. Kutliroff explains that in the years leading up to the large magnitude 7 and 8 earthquakes, there will be a series of smaller ones. These smaller

Memphis and the previously mentioned Tzvet are both at risk due to the soft ground that these cities are laid on. When the earthquake eventually happens and the shockwave is sent out through the surrounding area, the wave is amplified and then causes many smaller tremors to ripple around it. Luckily, we can take steps and procedures to minimize the destructive force of earthquakes. Cities that have high amounts of earthquakes such as those in California have implemented a system that automatically shuts off utilities such as gas and water to minimize damage. With time more and more cities will adopt their systems to match this procedure which will help to minimize lasting damage to infrastructure. Another strategy that has been employed in Memphis since 1944 is implementing building laws and regulation codes to ensure the sound structure of housing and building in earthquake-frequency areas. There have been ongoing developments to these laws and many of Memphis older buildings have undergone retrofits to maximize structure and safety.

Many parts of Memphis have foundations on unstable ground and might be at higher risk of collapse or damage. Thankfully, many of these buildings are built under proper regulations and will suffer at most, broken walls and furniture. An example that shows this is the small Turkish city of Ezrin. Unlike the majority of the affected Turkish and Syrian settlements that saw wide-scale destruction, Ezrin suffered no death and very minimal property damage. This is a testament to the town's strict building laws that although officially enforced everywhere in Turkey, have been pushed back due to corruption and construction companies skirting safety procedures to save money.

Last Week’s Solution

In conclusion, earthquakes can have devastating effects on communities and infrastructure. However, through geological research and preparation, cities can take measures to minimize the damage caused by earthquakes. Implementing building codes, retrofitting older buildings, and implementing automated utility shut-offs are just a few strategies that cities can use to protect their citizens. While earthquakes cannot be prevented, taking steps to prepare and minimize their impact can save lives and prevent lasting damage to the local infrastructure in the future.

Disaster Go Bags

In our modern-day lives certain situations can occur when you need to leave the house in a hurry but still have supplies such as food or clothes that you can grab quickly. One idea for this issue is to make a "Go Bag". These bags will be helpful in a wide variety of situations from power outages to more dangerous disasters such as earthquakes.

• Some recommended items for a go bag are the following:

◦ Water bottles or a hydration pack

◦ Non-perishable food items, such as energy bars or canned goods

◦ First aid kit

◦ Two full sets of clothes

◦ Required Medications/assorted counter medicines such as Tylenol, Advil, and basic cold medicine

◦ Copies of important documents, such as identification, passport, and insurance policies

◦ Cash and/or credit cards

◦ Portable phone charger and charging cables

◦ Flashlight and extra batteries

◦ Warm clothing, including a jacket or coat, gloves, and a hat

◦ Multi-purpose tool or Swiss Army knife

◦ Personal hygiene items, such as hand sanitizer or soap