China & The Emeging World Order - 08 Dec 2023 (Online event)

Seminar

CHINA & THE EMERGING WORLD ORDER

ONLINE EVENT

DEC

08 2023

FRIDAY, 6:00 PM - 7:45 PM MMA MANAGEMENT CENTER

AMB ASHOK K KANTHA, IFS(R)

Dr SRIKANTH KONDAPALLI

INDRANI BAGCHI

ANANTH KRISHNAN

Synopsis The recent Sino-American Summit between Presidents, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at San Francisco has caused eyebrows to raise across the world, in geo-political, geo-economic and geostrategic terms, not necessarily in that order. It was their first meeting after the Bali G-20 summit last year, were the Ukraine War was in greater focus.

At talks this time, Taiwan remained an irritant, and Xi reiterated the assertive Chinese position of long, yet got away with chipmaking equipment, which the West for a time believed was becoming a major driver in China’s economic growth and overseas trade, before the US sanctions and well into the future.

In his turn, Biden called Xi a ‘dictator’, which does not translate into anything concrete. Otherwise, the US has been encouraging all allies, old and new, to brand China as a nation that is in constant violation of a rules-based order in maritime space in particular and air space, too, though not as often.

Considering that the US remains the sole super-power with China chasing to overtake it in multiple sectors even without waiting to be acknowledged as a super-power to begin with has consequences for the rest of the world, big and small – again in political, economic and strategic terms. It is more so in an election year in the US, where China can as well become a key poll issue, especially if the Republicans choose former President Donald Trump as their nominee and the ruling Democrats settle for Biden, the incumbent.

West Asian Conundrum Nothing is more striking in these days after the Xi-Biden Summit, you had West Asian powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, accompanied by some of their African brethren, flying to Beijing to work out a joint strategy to address the ‘Israel-Hamas’ conflict.

This was so despite the US taking the initiative to consult them but without changing its known position.

Synopsis (Contd...)

Incidentally, the US, and never ever China, used to be their favourite global partner ingeo-political and geo-strategic matters, as evidenced during the two Iraq War, the Iran nuclear conflict and the like. Earlier this year, China brokered diplomatic truce, if not peace, between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This time last year, President Xi was in Riyadh, where he signed multiple agreements with the Saudi hosts and also had summit meetings with member-nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League. Lately, Beijing is also talking about extending the China-Myanmar connectivity to Sri Lanka, where it already has substantial interests and commercial assets with strategic content, and possible intent.

Assurances, reassurances Nearer to India, for instance, the US-created arrangements like the Indo-Pacific, Quad, I2U2 and the AUKUS. Despite assurances and reassurances, in word and deed, to the contrary, the course and direction of these West-heavy establishments will be tested against a possible backdrop of Sino-American detente’.

America’s East and South-East Asian allies, including Japan and South Korea, ASEAN and Taiwan, too were keenly looking at San Francisco and beyond. In context, India too has increasing interest in that region, apart from wanting to know the fall-out on the immediate neighbourhood over the short, medium and long terms.

All of it at a time when t western analysts especially are continuing to claim that Xi is facing rebellion from within, the Chinese economy is tanking and that the BRI has produced adequate returns for the billions of dollars in investments through the past decade of its existence.

Does it mean that Biden has extended not just an olive branch but much more than a reed to a man that the US and the rest of the West wants the whole world to believe was sinking...

Synopsis (Contd...)

Points to Ponder Internal Dynamics Domestic Politics and Xi’s Strengths, Weaknesses State of the Economy, Jobs, Incomes and Socio-Political Impact over the short, medium and long terms Possible restoration of trade and investment with the US and the rest of the West Chances of economic recovery to pre-Covid levels with implications for the rest of the world in economic, political and geo-strategic terms International Politics & Regional Dynamics What does the Biden-Xi summit mean for restoration of bilateral ties pre-sanctions, which began under President Trump, impact of next year’s US presidential election / campaign on bilateral relations and its reflection on China’s ties with Western Europe and other US allies like Australia?

Possible impact of attempted revival of Sino-American bonhomie on India, starting with Indo-US relations after the recent 2+2 Dialogue between the two countries.

The impact on India’s neighbourhood, as reflected in their relations with New Delhi Geo-strategic Situation How far can the revival of Sino-American relations impact on the geo-strategic situation in various global hot-spots, starting with West Asia, Russo-Ukraine War, and East Asia / South Asia region, where the ‘Taiwan issue’ remains?

What does it mean for Indian strategic thinking following the continuing upticks in India’s all-round relations with the US and Western Europe, more than any time in the past?

If Sino-Americans really improve to those levels, will Washington seek to broker permanent peace between the two Asian Giants? If so, how? If not, why? And where will Pakistan, India’s other adversary in the region, fit into such a scheme, if it came to that?

Programme 5:45 PM Login by members/invitees 6:00 PM Welcome Address Gp Capt R Vijayakumar (Retd), VSM Executive Director, Madras Management Association Opening Remarks Mr N Sathiya Moorthy Convenor, Policy Matters - Chennai Discussion on the theme: China and the Emerging World Order Distinguished Speakers Amb Ashok K Kantha, IFS (Retd) Former Ambassador of India to China Honorary Fellow & Director, Institute of Chinese Studies, New Delhi Dr Srikanth Kondapalli Dean, School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Ms Indrani Bagchi Chief Executive Officer Ananta Centre In conversation with Mr Ananth Krishnan Special Correspondent, The Hindu, Hong Kong Q&A 7:45 PM Vote of Thanks

Profile

Amb Ashok K Kantha, IFS (Retd) Former Ambassador of India to China Honorary Fellow & Director, Institute of Chinese Studies, New Delhi Ashok K. Kantha is an Honorary Fellow and former Director (2017- 22) of the Institute of Chinese Studies, New Delhi; a Distinguished Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi; and Chair of the Core Group on China of the Confederation of Indian Industry.

A career diplomat, Kantha was Ambassador of India to China until January 2016. Prior to this, he was Secretary (East) at Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi with responsibility for about 65 countries in India’s extended neighbourhood. His previous assignments include High Commissioner of India to Sri Lanka and Malaysia, Consul General in Hong Kong, and Deputy Chief of Mission in Kathmandu (Nepal). Earlier, Kantha served in different capacities at Indian Missions in Singapore, China and the USA, and at headquarters in New Delhi.

In his diplomatic career spanning over 38 years, Kantha specialized in India’s neighbourhood and Asian affairs, with a particular focus on China. Apart from three assignments in China, he served as Joint Secretary (East Asia) and Director (China) at Ministry of External Affairs for periods of four years each. He has an advanced certificate in Chinese language from National University of Singapore.

Profile

Dr Srikanth Kondapalli Dean, School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Srikanth Kondapalli is Dean of School of International Studies and Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He was Chairman of the Centre for East Asian Studies, SIS, JNU from 2008-10, 2012-14, 2016-18 and 2018-20. He is educated in Chinese studies in India and China with a Ph.D. in Chinese Studies. He learnt Chinese language at Beijing Language & Culture University and was a post-Doctoral Visiting Fellow at People’s University, Beijing from 199698. He was a Visiting Professor at National Chengchi University, Taipei in 2004, a Visiting Fellow at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing in May 2007, an Honorary Professor at Shandong University, Jinan in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019; at Jilin University, Changchun in 2014 and at Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming in 2016 and 2017, a NonResident Senior Fellow at People’s University since 2014 and a Fellow at Salzburg Global Seminar in 2010. He wrote two books: • China’s Military: The PLA in Transition in 1999 and • China’s Naval Power in 2001.

He wrote two monographs, and co-edited six volumes: • Asian Security & China in 2004 • China and its Neighbours in 2010 • China’s Military and India in 2012 • China and the BRICS: Setting up a Different Kitchen in 2016 • One Belt One Road – China’s Global Outreach in 2017 and • China and Covid-19 – Domestic and External Dimensions in 2020 and a number of articles in journals and edited volumes – all on China. He received the K.Subramanyam Award in 2010 for Excellence in Research in Strategic and Security Studies. He is a guest faculty at Indian armed forces units, including at the National Defence College, Army War College, College of Air Warfare, College of Naval Warfare, and College of Defence Management. He is a distinguished fellow at several think-tanks including Vivekananda International Foundation and Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies. He supervised about 30 Ph.D. researchers at JNU and is also an academic advisor for Ph.D. researchers at Kazakh National University and Ablai Khan University at Almaty and Tamkhang University (Taipei). He is Editor of JNU SIS International Studies Journal (being published by the Sage)

Profile

Ms Indrani Bagchi Chief Executive Officer Ananta Centre Ms Indrani is Chief Executive Officer of Ananta Centre.

Earlier she was Associate Editor with the Times of India, where she reported and analysed foreign policy issues for the newspaper from 2004 until 2022. As Diplomatic Editor, Indrani covered the Ministry of External Affairs on her news beat, as well as interpreted and analyzed global trends with an Indian perspective. Earlier, Indrani worked with India Today, a premier news magazine, The Economic Times and The Statesman.

Profile

Mr Ananth Krishnan Special Correspondent The Hindu, Hong Kong Ananth Krishnan is an experienced journalist and a 2019 AsiaGlobal Fellow.

Currently with The Hindu, Ananth is an experienced journalist who writes extensively about foreign affairs. Previously, he was a fellow at the Brookings Institution India Center, where his research focus was India-China economic relations. Before that, Krishnan was based in Beijing for nine years as the China correspondent for The Hindu newspaper and later as the China Bureau Chief for the India Today Group, which is India's biggest media organization with English television channel India Today Television and Hindilanguage channel Aaj Tak reaching more than 50 million people.

Krishnan holds a master's degree in history from the University of Chicago, where he studied the relationship between the film industry and politics in southern India. He also holds bachelor's degrees in history and economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

Profile

Mr N Sathiya Moorthy Convenor, Policy Matters - Chennai N Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst & political commentator, specialising in the study of India’s southern neighbours, namely, Maldives and Sri Lanka, and also on Indian politics and political systems, with particular reference to native Tamil Nadu. He has written extensively on these subjects, both as books and newspaper columns and commissioned articles.

Sathiya Moorthy is associated with major newspapers and TV channels, both in India and Sri Lanka and also headed the Chennai Initiative of the Observer Research Foundation since inception in 2001.

A veteran journalist and author, he is the convenor of ‘Policy Matters-Chennai’.

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