From research to real-world impact:
Supply chain resilience during transportation disruptions
The Challenge
Natural disasters disrupt supply chains across multiple dimensions, but their precise impact on truckload transportation procurement remains poorly understood. When hurricanes strike, shippers face simultaneous demand surges for disaster relief and capacity constraints from damaged infrastructure.
KEY INSIGHTS
During disasters, supply chain leaders lack quantified data to inform procurement decisions, forcing them to choose between paying higher prices for urgent shipments or risking critical delays Understanding the true causal effects of disasters on transportation markets is essential for building resilience into global supply chains
48% 82%
75% of US domestic freight moves by truck† spot rate increase for long-haul inbound trucks during Hurricane Irma* increase in longhaul inbound spot rates into the disrupted area due to FEMA relief activity*
$896 billion
business logistics costs of trucking annually§
§State of Logistics Report, 2023 †Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2023 *“Measuring Causal Effects of Disasters...,” Rana, Goentzel, Caplice, 2024
The Research
MIT CTL's Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab, directed by Dr Jarrod Goentzel, worked with leading transportation data providers to answer a fundamental question: How much do disasters actually disrupt freight transportation procurement, and where? Traditional disaster impact studies rely on anecdotal reports and do not offer a rigorous causal analysis to quantify systemic effects.
The team analyzed actual transportation market transactions for two of the costliest disasters in US recorded history, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma They leveraged DAT's data combined with complete FEMA disaster relief activity records By comparing prices in affected zones versus control zones before and after hurricane landfalls, researchers isolated the true causal impact of disasters on spot market rates across different haul types, directions, and time windows.
Meet the Causal Impact Analysis Framework
Developed through a difference-in-differences methodology, our framework allows supply chain leaders to:
Understand the precise geography of disruption effects (localized to 250-mile radius from hurricane center), enabling targeted procurement strategies
Identify timing and duration patterns (peak effects 2–5 days post-landfall, lasting up to 4–5 weeks), informing inventory and capacity pre-positioning decisions
Distinguish demand-driven from infrastructure-driven disruptions, allowing shippers to differentiate short-haul from long-haul procurement risks
The Impact
For supply chain companies, the implications are significant:
Quantified price impacts enable shippers to develop pre-disaster procurement budgets and model the financial impact of competing for capacity during disasters versus waiting for rate stabilization
Anticipated recovery windows allow supply chains to model interim sourcing strategies and recovery sequencing for multi-week disruptions
Understanding the public sector market impact helps private-sector shippers anticipate capacity constraints during relief operations and adjust procurement timing accordingly
Research results:
$1.52/mile 4-5 weeks 250 miles
increase in long-haul inbound spot rates during Hurricane Irma for inbound shipments to nodes within 50 miles
duration of broadest long-haul inbound effects after landfall for locations within 250 miles of hurricane paths
geographic radius capturing 95% of causal disruption effects after hurricane
“During disasters, damaged infrastructure is not the primary driver of higher prices. Rather, supply chain leaders should prepare
for
demand-driven price increases.”
Dr. Jarrod Goentzel, Director, MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab
At the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics, we deliberately work at the edges of what’s known tackling supply chain challenges that are too complex, too new or outside the reach of conventional solutions By combining rigorous research with real-world experimentation, we transform uncertainty into scalable, practical solutions.