Salt Lake ®
Magazine December 2019
AwardsIssue LAURA FIDLER
2019 REALTOR® OF THE YEAR
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Table of Contents Features
Holiday Social p. 10
10
Holiday Social
12
2019 Realtor® Service Awards
14
2019 Distinguished Service Awards
20
OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes? Laura Kusisto The Wall Street Journal
28
American Dream Grants 2019
Columns 7
Salt Lake Board Continues to be a Voice for Realtors® Locally and Nationally Scott Robbins – President’s Message
Departments 8
Happenings
8
In the News
26
Housing Watch
On the Cover: Cover Design: Kelley Anderson Photo left: Dave Anderton
This Magazine is Self-Supporting Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine is self-supporting. The advertisers in this magazine pay for all production and distribution costs. Help support this magazine by advertising. For advertising rates, please contact Mills Publishing at 801.467.9419. The paper used in Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine comes from trees in managed timberlands. These trees are planted and grown specifically to make paper and do not come from parks or wilderness areas. In addition, a portion of this magazine is printed from recycled paper.
Salt Lake
REALTOR slrealtors.com
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December 2019 volume 79 number 12
slrealtors.com
The Salt Lake REALTOR® (ISSN 2153 2141) is published monthly by Mills Publishing, located at 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106. Periodicals Postage Paid at Salt Lake City, UT. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to: The Salt Lake REALTOR,® 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106-4618.
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Salt Lake
REALTOR
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slrealtors.com
President Scott Robbins Summit Sotheby’s
Michael Morgan Realtypath LLC Scott Colemere Colemere Realty Associates
First Vice President Alicia Holdaway Summit Sotheby’s
Jodie Osofsky Signature Real Estate Utah Mary Olsen Utah Key Real Estate
Second Vice President Matt Ulrich Ulrich Realtors®, Inc.
Sophie Reece Berkshire Hathaway
Treasurer Steve Perry Wise Choice Real Estate
Rob Ockey Century 21 Everest Dawn Stevens RealtyOne Group Signature
Past President Adam Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s
Brian Gottfredson Coldwell Banker
CEO Curtis Bullock
Tony Ketterling Equity Real Estate
Directors
Ryan Henderson Realtypath LLC
Michael Rowe Berkshire Hathaway Advertising information may be obtained by calling (801) 467-9419 or by visiting www.millspub.com
Managing Editor Dave Anderton Publisher Mills Publishing, Inc. www.millspub.com President Dan Miller Art Director Jackie Medina Graphic Design Ken Magleby Katie Steckler Patrick Witmer
Sales Staff Paula Bell Paul Nicholas Chad Saunders
Office Administrator Cynthia Bell Snow
Administrative Assistants Jessica Alder Caleb Deane
Salt Lake Board: (801) 542-8840 e-mail: dave@saltlakeboard.com Web Site: www.slrealtors.com
Salt Lake Board Continues to be a Voice for Realtors® Locally and Nationally
A
s our population increases so does the conversation…why Salt Lake? What makes it special? Recently I have been interviewed by many news outlets asking “what is going on in Salt Lake?”
This year, in a front-page story, The Wall Street Journal profiled Salt Lake City homeowners. The article included comments from our leadership team and Realtor® members. The Journal is the nation’s largest circulated newspaper, with more than 2.6 million readers and 2 million digital subscribers. In addition, Associated Press writer Josh Boak traveled from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City to learn why so many millennials are buying homes in Salt Lake City. The story included comments by Salt Lake Realtors® and was published in several publications including: The New York Times, The Denver Post, Orlando Sentinel, The San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times, The Boston Globe, and FoxBusiness.com. Local media continue to reach out to the Board as their source for real estate information. Dozens of stories this year appeared in newspapers and broadcast spots reaching tens of thousands of people. As an association, we continually reach out to media to tell the Realtor® story. Salt Lake City and its Realtors® are now a major voice in the real estate discussion. You should be proud of where you live and everything we have accomplished for our clients and for our communities. I am very proud to be a Realtor® — a Salt Lake Realtor®. Lastly, this will be my last article as President. I want to thank you for being an amazing group of Realtors®. I am humbled and honored to serve as your President. I hope all of you have an amazing holiday and a successful 2020.
Scott Robbins President
The Salt Lake Board of REALTORS® is pledged to the letter and spirit of U.S. policy for the achievement of equal housing opportunity throughout the nation. We encourage and support the affirmative advertising and marketing program in which there are no barriers to obtaining housing because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin. The Salt Lake REALTOR® is the monthly magazine of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. Opinions expressed by writers and persons quoted in articles are their own and do not necessarily reflect positions of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. Permission will be granted in most cases, upon written request, to reprint or reproduce articles and photographs in this issue, provided proper credit is given to The Salt Lake REALTOR®, as well as to any writers and photographers whose names appear with the articles and photographs. While unsolicited original manuscripts and photographs related to the real estate profession are welcome, no payment is made for their use in the publication. Views and opinions expressed in the editorial and advertising content of the The Salt Lake REALTOR® are not necessarily endorsed by the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. However, advertisers do make publication of this magazine possible, so consideration of products and services listed is greatly appreciated.
OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SALT LAKE BOARD OF REALTORS ® REALTOR® is a registered mark which identifies a professional in real estate who subscribes to a strict Code of Ethics as a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. October 2005
December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 7
Happenings
In the News In Memoriam: Cecil Thompson
President’s Award – Adam Kirkham Adam Kirkham, branch broker at Summit Sotheby’s International Realty, was presented the 2019 President’s Award at the annual Holiday Social. This award recognizes people who offer exceptional service to the real estate profession. Adam was the 2018 president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “Adam is a great person I can bounce ideas off of,” said Scott Robbins, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “He is a true Realtor® through and through. He wants to make us all better. He is always there for me, encouraging me to do more and be better. He is a leader in the board room and people look up to him. He consistently is looking toward the future and how to make our Realtors® and profession better. We could not have had the successes we achieved this year without him.”
Cecil Thompson passed away unexpectedly on Saturday, Nov. 16. The Salt Lake Board of Realtors® offers its deepest condolences to Cecil’s family. The Board thanks him for his 12-plus years of dedicated service on the Government Affairs & RPAC Committee. Cecil was the chairman of the Election Sub-Committtee, in which he led hundreds of candidate interviews, and volunteered countless hours of his time. “He demonstrated his commitment to the Realtor® profession and his clients by donating hundreds of hours over his career interviewing and educating local political candidates on Realtor® issues,” said Justin Allen, government affairs consultant to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “He was a great example of commitment and reliability. Our association has lost a real champion of private property rights and housing opportunity.
Best Time to Buy a Home
Pictured: Members of the Affiliates Advisory Board.
Serve on a Committee More than 100 members took part in the annual Committee Sign-Up Day on Nov. 18 sponsored by the Affiliates Advisory Board. The Salt Lake Board of Realtors® offers eight different committees to help meet the association’s four-fold mission: Government advocacy, knowledge, communication, and service. Realtor® and affiliate members are encouraged to volunteer to serve on one or more of the Board’s committees. You can still sign-up by visiting www.slrealtors.com/ committees.
8 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
ATTOM Data Solutions released its annual analysis of the best days of the year to buy a home, which shows that only three days of the year offer discounts below estimated market value — all falling in the month of December. According to the analysis, buyers willing to close on a home purchase the day after Christmas realize the biggest discounts below full market value of any day in the year. This analysis of more than 23 million single-family home and condo sales over the past six years is evidence of the continuation of a hot sellers’ market.
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A Grand
Holiday Social
N
early 1,200 people on Dec. 6 attended the 2019 Holiday Social at The Grand America Hotel in downtown Salt Lake City. Alicia Holdaway was sworn-in as the 2020 president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. Members of the 2020 Board of Directors also took the oath of office, including four new directors: Jennifer Gilchrist, John Lucky, Janice Smith, and Carlye Webb. The 2019 Realtor® service awards were presented (see pp. 12-18). The Board thanks its members for making the day a memorable event.
Photos: Dave Anderton
10 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
2019 AWARDS
REALTOR® SERVICE Realtor ® of the Year
Laura Fidler SUMMIT SOTHEBY’S
Realtor® of the Year Laura Fidler cares about people and strives to make the community a better place. She dedicates her time to serving in numerous roles and committees at the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® and the Utah Association of Realtors®. It was Laura who first proposed that down payment grants should be awarded to first-time homebuyers. The idea resulted in the Charity Committee awarding $20,000 in grants to four first-time home buyers this year. These grants were given to single-parents, school teachers, first responders, and veterans. Laura was also instrumental in the Board partnering with radio station 10 to help with their annual Tools for Schools Event. This year, four school buses were filled with needed supplies, such as backpacks, clothing, and food, which will benefit many Wasatch Front students. Thanks to Laura’s leadership, the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® members were inspired to donate more than $10,000 to the cause. Those who work with Laura will tell you she is the ultimate professional and takes extremely good care of her clients. In fact, Laura’s clients often become her lifelong friends. “It is Laura’s nature to serve others,” said DeAnna Robbins, past president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors and managing broker of the raper office of Summit Sotheby’s International Realty. “People want to serve on committees when Laura is on them. She is in her element when she is giving to others. That is her passion. She doesn’t do it for the recognition. She does it to help people.” 12 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
Affiliate of the Year
Lesa Beuchert ELEVATE HOME WARRANTY
Lesa Beuchert began working in the real estate industry when she was 19 years old. Over the past 32 years, she has been a receptionist, Realtor®, title marketing representative, and home warranty specialist. She dedicated 26 years to the Christmas in July Committee, has served on the Young Professionals Network, and currently serves on the Affiliates Advisory Board. “She loves helping less fortunate people – especially the children,” said Julie Krushensky, past chairwoman of the Affiliates Advisory Board and account manager of First American Title. “Lesa is the kind of person that always lifts your spirits when you are having a bad day. She has a contagious laugh and keen sense of humor. She is someone you can rely on and is there for you and follows through.”
Good Neighbor Awards Dawn Houghton COLDWELL BANKER
Mac Brubaker TATE-BRUBAKER COMPANY
Shawn Kenney INTEGRA REALTY, LLC
Elaine Zambos UTAH KEY REAL ESTATE
Dawn Houghton grew up in a low-income housing project. As a teenager, the one thing she really wanted was access to books. Today she is helping youth discover a love of reading and owning their own books through Book Wagon. A nonprofit endeavor now in its 13th year of operation, Book Wagon provides books to children living in one of nine Salt Lake County low-income housing complexes. The program delivers books to kids whose parents who can’t afford to buy them.
Mac Brubaker and Shawn Kenney are volunteers on the Salt Lake County Sheriff’s Search and Rescue team. They live by the Search and Rescue motto: “So others may live.” Over the past seven years, the two have rescued more than 400 people stranded in the Wasatch Mountains. In October, they rescued a 190-pound Mastiff named Floyd. The dog rescue garnered national and international attention, including spotlights by the New York Times, Huffington Post, CNN, Fox News, Buzz Feed, Inside Edition, and the Today Show.
For two years Elaine Zambos has organized a team of people to travel to Rosarita, Mexico, to build houses for homeless families. The group, in association with St. Anna Greek Orthodox Church, raised their own travel funds and donated personal money for materials to build the homes. Volunteers stayed in tents for the duration of the project. The grateful recipients of this year’s home were a single-mother and her two children. December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 13
2019 Distinguished Service Awards Cheryl Acker Utah Key RE
Susan Benson RE/MAX Metro
Jessica Adams Cannon & Company
John Aguirre Ulrich Realtors®
Judy Allen Paula Alonso-Moreira Berkshire Hathaway Exit Realty Success
Lesa Beuchert Jared Booth Russell Booth Elevate Home Warranty Colliers International Colliers International
Linda Burtch Keller Williams
Kristin Buta Keller Williams
Greg Call Berkshire Hathaway
Annie Cannon Keller Williams
Peter Clark Windermere RE
Jordy Clark EXP Realty
Bryan Colemere Colemere Realty
Scott Colemere Colemere Realty
Devi Day EDGE Realty
Babs De Lay Urban Utah Homes
Sylvia Farrer Utah Key RE
Kelly Favero Keller Williams
Mark Feigh Cannon & Company
Rolando Gill Equity RE
Neil Glover Coldwell Banker
Wesley Goldberg Ranlife RE
Lori Hendry Windermere RE
Terry Hill-Black ReMax Overland
Troy Hodell IMPOWER RE
Justin Hurd Keller Williams
Cassie Jackson Title Guarantee
Michael Jensen Probe, Realtors®
Jennifer Kikel-Lynn K Real Estate
Kevin Kilpatrick Exit Realty Success
Carol Ann Daves Realty Brokers
Jeffery Kirk EDGE Realty
Brock Andersen Berkshire Hathaway
Jessica Apsley NVS RE
Adam Bangerter Bangerter RE
Laura Bangerter RE/MAX Assoc.
Liz Bare Keller Williams
Benjamin Beesley Launie Belnap Keller Williams Aubrey and Associates
Jim Bringhurst Windermere RE
Scott Broussard Equity RE
Boyd Brown Keller Williams
Jacque Bruening IPRO Realty Network
Steve Brush Windermere RE
Robyn Buckwalter Utah Key RE
Gary Cannon Sheridyn Cannon Staci Carlston Cannon & Company Cannon & Company Summit Sotheby’s
Michael Carmody Keller Williams
Joel Carson Utah RE, PC
Olivia Bostwick Ranlife RE
Lana Ames Windermere RE
Melanie Bowers Keller Williams
Lori Chamberlain Chamberlain & Co.
Scott Chapman Kimberly Chatterton Nancy Christensen Chapman Richards Coldwell Banker Boardwalk Realty
Mason Conley Keller Williams
Alicia Connell Coldwell Banker
Terry Cononelos Chapman Richards
Dana Conway Utah Key RE
Traci Crockett Keller Williams
Sally Domichel Coldwell Banker
John Dowdle Destination RE
Abbey Drummond Windermere RE
Michael Egan Keller Williams
Rachel Eliason Keller Williams
Trent Escandon Equity RE
Gregory Fabiano Dwellings RE
Angela Flint U.S. Title Insurance
Dave Frederickson Keller Williams
Eric Freebairn Ivory RE
Michael Gabel Keller Williams
Eric Gardiner Blackwell Realty
Diane Gates Coldwell Banker
Lori Gee Berkshire Hathaway
Amy Gibbons Selling Salt Lake
Jennifer Gilchrist Utah Key RE
Kristel Gough Kathleen Granderath RealtyOne Group RealtyOne Group
Joel Hair Ulrich Realtors®
Scott Hall Equity RE
Bradley Hansen Windermere RE
Scott Harvey Coldwell Banker
Craig Hawker Bill Heiner Action Team Realty Cannon & Company
Ryan Henderson RealtyPath
V. Wade Henderson Utah RE, PC
Alicia Holdaway Summit Sotheby’s
Ryan Hook RE/MAX Assoc.
Kate Horsley Equity RE
Tara Horton CW Group RE
Dawn Houghton Coldwell Banker
Abby Howell EDGE Realty
Johnathan Hunter Century 21
Bryan Hurd Keller Williams
Steven Johnson RE/MAX Assoc.
Brenda Jones Century 21
Tammy Jones Century 21
Jason Judd Keller Wililams
Lisa Jungemann Windermere RE
Tony Ketterling Equity RE
Lori Khodadad Coldwell Banker
Adam Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s
Carolyn Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s
Ryan Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s
Shawndra Kirkham Move Utah RE
Michelle Koch Koch & Company
Vann Larson Village RE
Craig Lelis Coldwell Banker
Hector Delgado Innova Realty
Todd Feld Coldwell Banker
14 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
Jeff Justice Summit Sotheby’s
Grady Kohler Windermere RE
Rikki Curtis RealtyOne Group
Cameron Burnside Equity 1st Realty
Bob Cusick RealtyPath
Kris Hudson Ulrich Realtors ®
Tiffany Hull Woodside Homes
Stephen Karpakis Paragon Properties
Bettina Katz Berkshire Hathaway
Haydee Lara RealtyPath
Claire Larson Woodside Homes
Corry Sue Cutler On Q Financial
Troy Darger RE/MAX Results
Robert Farnsworth Stockton Farnsworth RE/MAX Assoc. RE/MAX Assoc.
Ah, yes... disruptor; today's current buzzword. Today's clickbait. We live in a world searching for the next disruptor, the next shiny thing, the next fancy technology. So what is a disruptor? /dis•rupt•or/ Noun A company that changes the traditional way an industry operates in a new and effective way. With that definition in mind, let us offer a glimpse into our world, our culture, our mission. 11 years ago we saw an opportunity, the opportunity to, dare we say... disrupt. The goal was lofty, the vision, ambitious. Redefine an industry. Do it different, do it better, do it right. We assembled a team of dreamers, a group that believed that the impossible was possible, a group that looked at every turn as an opportunity to question the norm and to expect more. There were losses along the way, mistakes, doubt – but the commitment to building a full-service real estate brokerage continued forward. Change started to take shape, the disruption began, clients at every price point and area experienced something different, something inspiring – something we call luxury. Sales grew, services and staff increased, the industry noticed. All of a sudden we looked around and we had done the thing, the redefining of what real estate could be. But we're not done yet, the disruption has just begun, the experience only gets better from here, because this now family of dreamers is committed to creating the marketing that others can't, the experience that others won't, and giving our clients what real estate should be: full-service and inspired.
summitsothebysrealty.com ©MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sotheby’s International Realty® is a licensed trademark to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates, Inc. An Equal Opportunity Company. Each Office Is Independently Owned And Operated. Copyright© Summit Sotheby’s International Realty 2019.
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2019 Distinguished Service Awards Stacy Lockhart Utah Key RE
Hector Lombana Beehive RE
John Lucky Coldwell Banker
Kerri Luther Equity RE
Teresa Macias Epic RE
David Madsen United RE
Jeannette Mason Keller Williams
Cathy Maxfield RE/MAX Assoc.
Katherine McCabe Windermere RE
Chris McCandless CW Real Estate
Shirlee McGarry RealtyPath
Michael McPhie Equity RE
Carlos Nelson-Tobar Kristi Nicholl Durrant RealtyPath Coldwell Banker
Anna Parker Utah Key RE
Holly Parkin United RE
Sophie Reece Tony Reece Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway
Shane Roxburgh Berkshire Hathaway
Janice Smith Coldwell Banker
Brandon Nielson Equity RE
Debra Nisson Berkshire Hathaway
Daniel Nix Coldwell Banker
Rob Ockey Century 21
Joan Pate Berkshire Hathaway
John Patton Coldwell Banker
Michael Perry Keller Williams
Steve Perry Wise Choice RE
George Richards Chapman Richards
Tamra Rieper Keller Williams
Jimmy Rex Keller Williams
Jamie Sacks James Eric Santistevan Melissa Schelin Coldwell Banker Keller Williams Signature RE
Linda Secrist Berkshire Hathaway
Linda Mandrow Coldwell Banker
Heather Mangan RealtyPath
Carolee Mecham Jay Mecham Donald Mendenhall Cannon & Company Cannon & Company Equity RE
Joseph Olschewski Ulrich Realtors®
Katie Olsen Coldwell Banker
Myra Petersen Windermere RE
Troy Peterson Equity RE
DeAnna Robbins Scott Robbins Summit Sotheby’s Summit Sotheby’s
Dave Robison goBE Realty
Britt Sharp Ranlife RE
Mary Olsen Utah Key RE
Linda Martinez Century 21
Michael Morgan RealtyPath
Paz Ortiz IPRO Realty Network
Ricky Martinez REMAX Masters
Angie Nelden Annie Nelson Summit Sotheby’s Ponderosa Properties
Jodie Osofsky Signature RE
Joan Pok Donna Pozzuoli Suzanne Preston RealtyOne Group Berkshire Hathaway Ranlife RE
Jesus Roldan RealtyPath
Kirsten Rose Michael Rowe Exit Realty Success Berkshire Hathaway
Kelly Shuldberg RE/MAX Metro
Chris Sidwell Summit Sotheby’s
Jeff Sidwell Laurel Simmons Summit Sotheby’s Summit Sotheby’s
Heidi Stapel Wasatch Realty
Wendy Starling Starling RE
Scott Steadman Windermere RE
Lee Stern Keller Williams
Shelly Tripp Coldwell Banker
Laurann Turner Windermere RE
Justin Udy Century 21
Scott Maruri Keller Williams
Terry Simmons Utah Key RE
Stephen Ostler EXP Realty
Jennifer Mascaro The Mascaro Group
Heather Nelson Utah Key RE
Tara Paras Paras RE
Lisa Radke RE/MAX Results
Chad Rawlins Live Work Play
Merilee Rowley Selling Salt Lake
Heather Roxburgh Keller Williams
Debra Sjoblom Chapman Richards
Liz Slager Summit Sotheby’s
Dawn Stevens RealtyOne Group
Mona Stevens Keller Williams
Brandi Strong Berkshire Hathaway
Matthew Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®
Michael Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®
Nathan Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®
Tricia Vanderkooi Coldwell Banker
Paul Smith Market Source RE
Randy Smith Equity RE
Catherine Sneyd Windermere RE
Joey Sutorius Coldwell Banker
Brady Tanner Prime Residential
Dan Taylor Coldwell Banker
Jessica Terry Century 21
Greg Tracy IMPOWER RE
Rich Varga Keller Williams
Ryan Volmar Ranlife RE
Melodie Waldron RE/MAX Metro
H. Blaine Walker Summit Sotheby’s
Joyce Walker RE/MAX Assoc.
Carlye Webb RealtyOne Group
Jamie White RealtyOne Group
Tracy White Weekley Homes
Craig Whiting Rock RE Group
Paul Willden Influence Realty
Durven Wilson goBE Realty
Alexander Winder RE/MAX Results
Douglas Winder RE/MAX Results
Bree Winegar Ulrich Realtors ®
David Winters RE/MAX Assoc.
Cindy Wood Cindy Wood Realty
Ian Wood Three Door RE
Lisa Woodbury Windermere RE
Thomas Wright Summit Sotheby’s
Margene Wrigley Wrigley Realty
Jennifer Yates RealtyPath
Elaine Zambos Utah Key RE
Corey Zander Zander RE Team
Tamara Zander Zander RE Team
Brian Summers K2 Realty
Dawn Wolfe Ranlife RE
Matthew Wolfe Ranlife RE
18 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
Sharon Spratley Kyrsten St. John Berkshire Hathaway RealtyOne Group
Susie Martindale REMAX Masters
Lokibaho©/ iStock
OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes? Baby boomers are getting ready to sell one quarter of America’s homes over the next two decades. The problem is many of these properties are in places where younger people no longer want to live. By Laura Kusisto The Wall Street Journal SUN CITY, Ariz.—When this Phoenix suburb opened on Jan. 1, 1960, it was billed as the original retirement community. From above, it would look like a UFO landing site, laid out in rings to mimic halos surrounding the sun. Just past the entrance, a billboard flanked by rows of palm trees promised “An Active New Way Of Life.”
bar. “The finest resort couldn’t supply more,” boasted a fictional resident of Sun City in a promotional video from the period.
On the weekend Sun City opened, cars were backed up for two miles as some 100,000 visitors waited to gawk at a village built specifically for adults over the age of 50. They found a new nine-hole golf course and a community center with 250-seat auditorium, swimming pool, shuffleboard court and lawn bowling green. Elsewhere there was a 30,000-square-foot Grand Shopping Center, a Safeway grocery store and a Hiway House Motor Hotel, where you could have a cup of coffee or something stronger at the
But the same demographics that propelled Sun City’s rise now pose an existential challenge to this suburb as baby boomers age. More than a third of Sun City’s homes are expected to turn over by 2027 as seniors die, move in with their children or migrate to assisted living facilities, according to Zillow. Nearly two thirds of the homes will turn over by 2037.
20 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
The concept was a huge hit. The developer, Del Webb, sold about as many homes in the first year as executives had expected to sell in three. Six decades later Sun City is home to 38,000 people.
The big question looming in this neighborhood— and dozens of others like it in the Southeast and
Rust Belt—is what happens to everything from home prices to the local economy when so many homes post ‘For Sale’ signs around the same time? The U.S. is at the beginning of a tidal wave of homes hitting the market on the scale of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. This time it won’t be driven by overbuilding, easy credit or irrational exuberance, but by an inevitable fact of life: the passing of the baby boomer generation. One in eight owner-occupied homes in the U.S., or roughly nine million residences, are set to hit the market from 2017 through 2027 as the baby boomers start to die in larger numbers, according to an analysis by Issi Romem conducted while he was a senior director of housing and urban economics at Zillow. That is up from roughly 7 million homes in the prior decade. By 2037, one quarter of the U.S. for-sale housing stock, or roughly 21 million homes will be vacated by seniors. That is more than twice the number of new properties built during a 10-year period that spanned the last housing bubble. Most of these homes will be concentrated in traditional retirement communities in Arizona and Florida, according to Zillow, or parts of the Rust Belt that have been losing population for
decades. A more modest infusion of new housing is expected in pricey coastal neighborhoods of New York or San Francisco where younger Americans are still flocking in large numbers.
The Generation X Problem On the face of it, this doesn’t sound all bad. Dying homeowners have always needed to be replaced by younger ones and the U.S. has for a number of years suffered from a shortage of housing, a development that has dampened recent home sales activity and kept many millennials stuck in rentals. But the buyers coming behind the baby boomers, the Gen Xers, are a smaller and more financially precarious generation with different preferences, posing a new kind of test for the housing market. One problem is that the bulk of the supply won’t necessarily be in places where these new buyers want to live. Gen Xers and the younger millennials have shown thus far they would rather be in cities or suburbs in major metropolitan areas that offer strong Wi-Fi and plenty of shops and restaurants within walking distance—like the Frisco suburbs of Dallas or the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle.
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They have little interest in migrating to planned, age-restricted retirement enclaves in sunnier corners of the U.S. lined with golf courses, community centers and man-made lakes—like The Villages, a community of 115,000 in central Florida. Innovations such as voice-recognition technology and ride-share drivers are also making it easier for older people to stay in their existing homes and eschew these retirement communities altogether. Another challenge is that younger buyers also may not have the financial strength to absorb all of this new supply. New research from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies found that households in their preretirement years, age 50 to 64, are less likely to own a home than prior generations, have suffered from stagnant income growth since 2000, and are more debt-burdened, including by student loans. The consequences of a housing sales glut are potentially wide-reaching. A mismatch between supply and demand in places like Florida, Arizona and Nevada could offer new fiscal challenges that are already familiar to aging cities of the Rust Belt: a shrinking tax base and less money for crucial services like roads and police. Home construction could also falter, dampening an important contributor to the local economy. “To the extent the local economy is dependent on a vibrant senior population, then it will be more difficult,” said William Frey, a senior fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. “Homes will be up for sale and not bought as quickly.” Housing prices are already stagnating in some places like St. Louis and Youngstown, Ohio as older people die and young people aren’t there to replace them, according to Zillow. Jordan Rappaport, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said he is confident that affordable cities in the Midwest will eventually be able to attract millennials to fill the housing left empty by baby boomers because larger cities on the coasts are becoming too expensive. “My own sense is that if you’re a city with amenities, if you’re a city where the firms are reasonably productive, I wouldn’t be worried about what you’re facing,” he said. More vulnerable, he said, are small towns and rural areas where young people are less likely to migrate, depressing housing prices indefinitely. “Those are the places that are going to seriously struggle,” he said. Some market observers say they are not worried about a housing bust on the scale of the 2008 crash that decimated communities across the Sunbelt and Southeast. Their argument: This time
22 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
the wave of available homes will hit the market more slowly. In the Phoenix area, for example, more than 131,000 units will be vacated by baby boomers during the decade ending in 2027, according to Zillow. That is roughly equal to the number of additional new homes sold in Phoenix over a much shorter period at the height of the last housing bubble from 2004 to 2007, according to CoreLogic Inc. A more likely scenario instead is for villages and towns designed around older people to transform themselves. Once-pricey communities may become affordable to retirees with more modest incomes, or some may reinvent themselves by lifting age restrictions and adding amenities like playgrounds and schools in an effort to appeal to Gen Xers or millennials in need of more affordably priced housing. “Those places will have a new normal, which is that they will tend to be cheaper,” said Mr. Romem, who recently left Zillow to start his own consulting firm, MetroSight.
Yoga Pants and Orange Peels Builders are already taking note and adjusting their strategies. Bob Flaherty, group president for Arizona and Utah at Toll Brothers, said he retooled plans for a new 2,200-home community in the Surprise suburb of Phoenix to make it more adaptable to shifting demographics. About 30 miles west of Phoenix, the development sits off a largely barren strip of highway. “You start driving west toward L.A. and you think, ‘Oh
my gosh I’m getting out here,” he said.
Given the relatively remote location, Mr. Flaherty said he initially envisioned an age-restricted 55-plus community dubbed Sterling Grove. But as more businesses began moving to the area he elected instead to mix some blocks with homes that will be restricted to older residents with many that won’t. The community, which is still under construction, features advertisements of attractive, fit, diverse Boomers in yoga pants enjoying cocktails and lattes garnished with orange peels. “We just said, you know what, in 20 years who’s going to live here? And even in 10 do you want to buy a new place where someone is toting around an oxygen tank?” Mr. Flaherty said. Instead of only offering small bungalows as initially planned, Toll will offer a mix of options at Sterling Grove, including 5,000-square-foot homes big enough for a family. Prices will range from roughly $300,000 to $1 million.
The community will feature amenities like three swimming pools, tennis courts, a fitness center, a spa and salon. There is a clubhouse restaurant dubbed “The Maison” and a Jack Nicklausdesigned golf course—features likely to appeal to older residents but that won’t be exclusive to them, Mr. Flaherty said. He looks to his own neighborhood Arcadia in
northeast Phoenix as a model for how to mix different generations. Younger families, he said, have replaced older residents who died. “It was always known as this older community,” he said. “‘Watch out, you’re going to see cars driving by and it doesn’t look like anyone is in it,’” referring to elderly people who could barely see over the steering wheel. “All of a sudden the retail is starting to boom. There are young families with strollers and kids riding their bikes.”
The Sun Is Still Rising In nearby Sun City, little about the village’s core concept has changed since 1960. The local homeowners association still enforces a covenant requiring at least one resident of each household to be over 55 years old (up from 50 in 1960) and the community is unapologetically tailored to silver-haired snowbirds. Many of the homes are two-bedroom, ecrucolored bungalows featuring low-maintenance rock gardens instead of yards. Garbage cans are hidden in holes in the ground to avoid disrupting the idyllic feel. There are no schools (or children), but local clubs and services abound, including stained-glass making, ukulele lessons, water walking, paper shred-a-thons and prescriptiondrug take backs. Golf cart crossings make driving a tedious task. Demand for Sun City is still strong by at least one measure: prices. Home values increased 7 percent in Sun City in the year ending in September, according to Zillow, compared with a 5 percent jump in all of Phoenix in the same period. One snowbird who landed recently in Sun City is Donna Lyons, a retired bookkeeper from upstate New York. She was looking for places in Florida and inadvertently put in her phone number on a Sun City site. When a Realtor® called she was skeptical because she had never been to Arizona. But she quickly discovered the cost of living in Sun City was less than other places she was looking at. “I just fell in love over the internet. It happens all the time but it’s usually with people,” she said. When she moved to Sun City she immediately felt young again—and compared with many of her neighbors, she was. The 61 year-old no longer
24 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
felt self-conscious about her varicose veins when sunbathing by the pool and found herself sought after on the singles scene. “They’re really just looking for someone who can cook,” she joked. The development even has a “next generation” club for people like herself who are under 70 years old. “Their main export industry is selling homes to [older] people who are coming from more expensive parts of the country,” Mr. Romem said. Ms. Lyons, like many residents, is quick to say she didn’t come there to die. She has been learning Spanish, taking aqua fitness classes, making ceramics and volunteering at the Sun City Posse, a community watchdog that checks on residents’ homes when they are visiting their grandchildren or helps bring people home when they get out of the hospital. She is going on a cruise this month and isn’t quite sure what she will do with herself since she has all the same amenities a short walk from her home. “It’s a permanent vacation here,” she said. Local housing consultant Jim Belfiore said it would be challenging to adapt Sun City for younger residents. “The market would be soft for a number of years,” he said. But some in Sun City are making adjustments they hope will be attractive to the next generation. Martha Lattie, the 57-year-old marketing manager for the Sun City Home Owners Association, is posting pictures and videos of the community on Instagram and Twitter. She noted that local recreation centers now have Wi-Fi. “Just the things that people who are 20 years younger take for granted that they’ll have,” said Ms. Lattie, who moved to Sun City with her husband about a year ago. She said she has also pushed the homeowners association to hold more of its meetings in the evening rather than the middle of the day, so working people can attend. Replacing former residents with new ones isn’t a novel challenge for retirement communities, said Joelyn Higgins, the communications and marketing coordinator for the Recreation Centers of Sun City. Sun City, she said, is constantly remodeling and putting in upgrades like automatically opening doors and data ports. Some changes are more of a stretch. “We’ve got to balance what kids are doing today versus what truly they’re going to be willing to do when they’re in their 80s,” Ms. Higgins said. “We’re not going to build a rock climbing wall.” Write to Laura Kusisto at laura.kusisto@wsj.com. Reprinted by Salt Lake Realtor® magazine with permission of Dow Jones and Company. License Number 4716611326224. Copyright 2019.
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OCTOBER HOUSING WATCH Salt Lake County Home Sales Rise in October; Davis County Sales up 12% Salt Lake County home sales (all housing types) increased slightly in September, while sales in neighboring Davis County continued a double-digit percent increase. Roughly 1,600 Salt Lake homes were sold in October by Realtors®, approximately 30 more home sales compared to sales in October 2018. In the first 10 months of 2019, there were 15,253 home sales across Salt Lake County, a 2 percent decrease compared to 15,492 sales in the same 10-month period last year. Nationally, total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, were up nearly 5 percent from a year ago (5.22 million in October 2018), according to the National Association of Realtors®. Salt Lake County home prices were up 7 percent in October. The median price of all housing types sold for the month increased to $348,000. In Davis County, the median price climbed 8 percent to $335,000. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said he expects added sales growth in the coming months. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Yun. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.” First-time buyers were responsible for 31 percent of sales in October, down from 33 percent in September and identical to the 31 percent recorded in October 2018. Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in October 2019 unchanged from September but down from the 15 percent figure recorded in October 2018. All-cash sales accounted for 19 percent of transactions in October, up from 17 percent in September but down from 23 percent in October 2018. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2 percent of sales in October, unchanged from September but down from 3 percent in October 2018. “It is great to see home sales rise along with an increase in housing permits,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, CA. “Both home buyers and the home sellers are being rewarded by these developments, and we see that conditions remain extremely favorable for real estate investment in America.”
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26 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019
Salt Lake & Davis County HOME SALES
Salt Lake County UP 2%
Davis County UP 12%
1,599
1,570
422
OCTOBER 2018
OCTOBER 2019
OCTOBER 2018
$325,000
OCTOBER 2018
OCTOBER 2019
UP8%
UP 7% MEDIAN PRICE
473
$348,000 $310,500
OCTOBER 2019
OCTOBER 2018
$335,000
OCTOBER 2019
MEDIAN CDOM
UP 3% 37
37
OCTOBER 2018
OCTOBER 2019
35
36
OCTOBER 2018
OCTOBER 2019 December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 27
28 | Salt Lake Realtor ÂŽ | December 2019
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