Salt Lake Realtor – December 2019

Salt Lake ®

Magazine December 2019

AwardsIssue LAURA FIDLER

2019 REALTOR® OF THE YEAR

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Table of Contents Features

Holiday Social p. 10

10

Holiday Social

12

2019 Realtor® Service Awards

14

2019 Distinguished Service Awards

20

OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes?

Laura Kusisto The Wall Street Journal

28

American Dream Grants 2019

Columns 7

Salt Lake Board Continues to be a Voice for Realtors® Locally and Nationally Scott Robbins – President’s Message

Departments 8

Happenings

8

In the News

26

Housing Watch

On the Cover: Cover Design: Kelley Anderson Photo left: Dave Anderton

This Magazine is Self-Supporting Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine is self-supporting.

The advertisers in this magazine pay for all production and distribution costs. Help support this magazine by advertising. For advertising rates, please contact Mills Publishing at 801.467.9419.

The paper used in Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine comes from trees in managed timberlands.

These trees are planted and grown specifically to make paper and do not come from parks or wilderness areas. In addition, a portion of this magazine is printed from recycled paper.

Salt Lake

REALTOR slrealtors.com

®

Maga zine

December 2019 volume 79 number 12

slrealtors.com

The Salt Lake REALTOR® (ISSN 2153 2141) is published monthly by Mills Publishing, located at 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106. Periodicals Postage Paid at Salt Lake City, UT. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to: The Salt Lake REALTOR,® 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106-4618.

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Salt Lake

REALTOR

®

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slrealtors.com

President Scott Robbins Summit Sotheby’s

Michael Morgan Realtypath LLC Scott Colemere Colemere Realty Associates

First Vice President Alicia Holdaway Summit Sotheby’s

Jodie Osofsky Signature Real Estate Utah Mary Olsen Utah Key Real Estate

Second Vice President Matt Ulrich Ulrich Realtors®, Inc.

Sophie Reece Berkshire Hathaway

Treasurer Steve Perry Wise Choice Real Estate

Rob Ockey Century 21 Everest Dawn Stevens RealtyOne Group Signature

Past President Adam Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s

Brian Gottfredson Coldwell Banker

CEO Curtis Bullock

Tony Ketterling Equity Real Estate

Directors

Ryan Henderson Realtypath LLC

Michael Rowe Berkshire Hathaway Advertising information may be obtained by calling (801) 467-9419 or by visiting www.millspub.com

Managing Editor Dave Anderton Publisher Mills Publishing, Inc. www.millspub.com President Dan Miller Art Director Jackie Medina Graphic Design Ken Magleby Katie Steckler Patrick Witmer

Sales Staff Paula Bell Paul Nicholas Chad Saunders

Office Administrator Cynthia Bell Snow

Administrative Assistants Jessica Alder Caleb Deane

Salt Lake Board: (801) 542-8840 e-mail: dave@saltlakeboard.com Web Site: www.slrealtors.com

Salt Lake Board Continues to be a Voice for Realtors® Locally and Nationally

A

s our population increases so does the conversation…why Salt Lake?

What makes it special? Recently I have been interviewed by many news outlets asking “what is going on in Salt Lake?”

This year, in a front-page story, The Wall Street Journal profiled Salt Lake City homeowners. The article included comments from our leadership team and Realtor® members. The Journal is the nation’s largest circulated newspaper, with more than 2.6 million readers and 2 million digital subscribers.

In addition, Associated Press writer Josh Boak traveled from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City to learn why so many millennials are buying homes in Salt Lake City. The story included comments

by Salt Lake Realtors® and was published in several publications including: The New York Times, The Denver Post, Orlando Sentinel, The San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times, The Boston Globe, and FoxBusiness.com.

Local media continue to reach out to the Board as their source for real estate information. Dozens of stories this year appeared in newspapers and broadcast spots reaching tens of thousands of people. As an association, we continually reach out to media to tell the Realtor® story.

Salt Lake City and its Realtors® are now a major voice in the real estate discussion.

You should be proud of where you live and everything we have accomplished for our clients and for our communities. I am very proud to be a Realtor® — a Salt Lake Realtor®.

Lastly, this will be my last article as President. I want to thank you for being an amazing group of Realtors®. I am humbled and honored to serve as your President. I hope all of you have an amazing holiday and a successful 2020.

Scott Robbins President

The Salt Lake Board of REALTORS® is pledged to the letter and spirit of U.S. policy for the achievement of equal housing opportunity throughout the nation. We encourage and support the affirmative advertising and marketing program in which there are no barriers to obtaining housing because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin.

The Salt Lake REALTOR® is the monthly magazine of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. Opinions expressed by writers and persons quoted in articles are their own and do not necessarily reflect positions of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®.

Permission will be granted in most cases, upon written request, to reprint or reproduce articles and photographs in this issue, provided proper credit is given to The Salt Lake REALTOR®, as well as to any writers and photographers whose names appear with the articles and photographs.

While unsolicited original manuscripts and photographs related to the real estate profession are welcome, no payment is made for their use in the publication.

Views and opinions expressed in the editorial and advertising content of the The Salt Lake REALTOR® are not necessarily endorsed by the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. However, advertisers do make publication of this magazine possible, so consideration of products and services listed is greatly appreciated.

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SALT LAKE BOARD OF REALTORS ® REALTOR® is a registered mark which identifies a professional in real estate who subscribes to a strict Code of Ethics as a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

October 2005

December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 7

Happenings

In the News In Memoriam: Cecil Thompson

President’s Award – Adam Kirkham Adam Kirkham, branch broker at Summit Sotheby’s International Realty, was presented the 2019 President’s Award at the annual Holiday Social. This award recognizes people who offer exceptional service to the real estate profession. Adam was the 2018 president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “Adam is a great person I can bounce ideas off of,” said Scott Robbins, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “He is a true Realtor® through and through. He wants to make us all better. He is always there for me, encouraging me to do more and be better. He is a leader in the board room and people look up to him. He consistently is looking toward the future and how to make our Realtors® and profession better. We could not have had the successes we achieved this year without him.”

Cecil Thompson passed away unexpectedly on Saturday, Nov. 16. The Salt Lake Board of Realtors® offers its deepest condolences to Cecil’s family. The Board thanks him for his 12-plus years of dedicated service on the Government Affairs & RPAC Committee. Cecil was the chairman of the Election Sub-Committtee, in which he led hundreds of candidate interviews, and volunteered countless hours of his time. “He demonstrated his commitment to the Realtor® profession and his clients by donating hundreds of hours over his career interviewing and educating local political candidates on Realtor® issues,” said Justin Allen, government affairs consultant to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. “He was a great example of commitment and reliability. Our association has lost a real champion of private property rights and housing opportunity.

Best Time to Buy a Home

Pictured: Members of the Affiliates Advisory Board.

Serve on a Committee More than 100 members took part in the annual Committee Sign-Up Day on Nov. 18 sponsored by the Affiliates Advisory Board. The Salt Lake Board of Realtors® offers eight different committees to help meet the association’s four-fold mission: Government advocacy, knowledge, communication, and service. Realtor® and affiliate members are encouraged to volunteer to serve on one or more of the Board’s committees. You can still sign-up by visiting www.slrealtors.com/ committees.

8 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

ATTOM Data Solutions released its annual analysis of the best days of the year to buy a home, which shows that only three days of the year offer discounts below estimated market value — all falling in the month of December.

According to the analysis, buyers willing to close on a home purchase the day after Christmas realize the biggest discounts below full market value of any day in the year. This analysis of more than 23 million single-family home and condo sales over the past six years is evidence of the continuation of a hot sellers’ market.

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A Grand

Holiday Social

N

early 1,200 people on Dec. 6 attended the 2019 Holiday Social at The Grand America Hotel in downtown Salt Lake City. Alicia Holdaway was sworn-in as the 2020 president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. Members of the 2020 Board of Directors also took the oath of office, including four new directors: Jennifer Gilchrist, John Lucky, Janice Smith, and Carlye Webb. The 2019 Realtor® service awards were presented (see pp. 12-18). The Board thanks its members for making the day a memorable event.

Photos: Dave Anderton

10 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

2019 AWARDS

REALTOR® SERVICE Realtor ® of the Year

Laura Fidler SUMMIT SOTHEBY’S

Realtor® of the Year Laura Fidler cares about people and strives to make the community a better place. She dedicates her time to serving in numerous roles and committees at the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® and the Utah Association of Realtors®.

It was Laura who first proposed that down payment grants should be awarded to first-time homebuyers. The idea resulted in the Charity Committee awarding $20,000 in grants to four first-time home buyers this year. These grants were given to single-parents, school teachers, first responders, and veterans.

Laura was also instrumental in the Board partnering with radio station 10 to help with their annual Tools for Schools Event. This year, four school buses were filled with needed supplies, such as backpacks, clothing, and food, which will benefit many Wasatch Front students.

Thanks to Laura’s leadership, the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® members were inspired to donate more than $10,000 to the cause.

Those who work with Laura will tell you she is the ultimate professional and takes extremely good care of her clients. In fact, Laura’s clients often become her lifelong friends. “It is Laura’s nature to serve others,” said DeAnna Robbins, past president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors and managing broker of the raper office of Summit Sotheby’s International Realty. “People want to serve on committees when Laura is on them. She is in her element when she is giving to others. That is her passion. She doesn’t do it for the recognition. She does it to help people.”

12 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

Affiliate of the Year

Lesa Beuchert ELEVATE HOME WARRANTY

Lesa Beuchert began working in the real estate industry when she was 19 years old. Over the past 32 years, she has been a receptionist, Realtor®, title marketing representative, and home warranty specialist. She dedicated 26 years to the Christmas in July Committee, has served on the Young Professionals Network, and currently serves on the Affiliates Advisory Board. “She loves helping less fortunate people – especially the children,” said Julie Krushensky, past chairwoman of the Affiliates Advisory Board and account manager of First American Title. “Lesa is the kind of person that always lifts your spirits when you are having a bad day. She has a contagious laugh and keen sense of humor. She is someone you can rely on and is there for you and follows through.”

Good Neighbor Awards Dawn Houghton COLDWELL BANKER

Mac Brubaker TATE-BRUBAKER COMPANY

Shawn Kenney INTEGRA REALTY, LLC

Elaine Zambos UTAH KEY REAL ESTATE

Dawn Houghton grew up in a low-income housing project. As a teenager, the one thing she really wanted was access to books. Today she is helping youth discover a love of reading and owning their own books through Book Wagon. A nonprofit endeavor now in its 13th year of operation, Book Wagon provides books to children living in one of nine Salt Lake County low-income housing complexes. The program delivers books to kids whose parents who can’t afford to buy them.

Mac Brubaker and Shawn Kenney are volunteers on the Salt Lake County Sheriff’s Search and Rescue team. They live by the Search and Rescue motto: “So others may live.” Over the past seven years, the two have rescued more than 400 people stranded in the Wasatch Mountains. In October, they rescued a 190-pound Mastiff named Floyd. The dog rescue garnered national and international attention, including spotlights by the New York Times, Huffington Post, CNN, Fox News, Buzz Feed, Inside Edition, and the Today Show.

For two years Elaine Zambos has organized a team of people to travel to Rosarita, Mexico, to build houses for homeless families. The group, in association with St. Anna Greek Orthodox Church, raised their own travel funds and donated personal money for materials to build the homes. Volunteers stayed in tents for the duration of the project. The grateful recipients of this year’s home were a single-mother and her two children.

December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 13

2019 Distinguished Service Awards Cheryl Acker Utah Key RE

Susan Benson RE/MAX Metro

Jessica Adams Cannon & Company

John Aguirre Ulrich Realtors®

Judy Allen Paula Alonso-Moreira Berkshire Hathaway Exit Realty Success

Lesa Beuchert Jared Booth Russell Booth Elevate Home Warranty Colliers International Colliers International

Linda Burtch Keller Williams

Kristin Buta Keller Williams

Greg Call Berkshire Hathaway

Annie Cannon Keller Williams

Peter Clark Windermere RE

Jordy Clark EXP Realty

Bryan Colemere Colemere Realty

Scott Colemere Colemere Realty

Devi Day EDGE Realty

Babs De Lay Urban Utah Homes

Sylvia Farrer Utah Key RE

Kelly Favero Keller Williams

Mark Feigh Cannon & Company

Rolando Gill Equity RE

Neil Glover Coldwell Banker

Wesley Goldberg Ranlife RE

Lori Hendry Windermere RE

Terry Hill-Black ReMax Overland

Troy Hodell IMPOWER RE

Justin Hurd Keller Williams

Cassie Jackson Title Guarantee

Michael Jensen Probe, Realtors®

Jennifer Kikel-Lynn K Real Estate

Kevin Kilpatrick Exit Realty Success

Carol Ann Daves Realty Brokers

Jeffery Kirk EDGE Realty

Brock Andersen Berkshire Hathaway

Jessica Apsley NVS RE

Adam Bangerter Bangerter RE

Laura Bangerter RE/MAX Assoc.

Liz Bare Keller Williams

Benjamin Beesley Launie Belnap Keller Williams Aubrey and Associates

Jim Bringhurst Windermere RE

Scott Broussard Equity RE

Boyd Brown Keller Williams

Jacque Bruening IPRO Realty Network

Steve Brush Windermere RE

Robyn Buckwalter Utah Key RE

Gary Cannon Sheridyn Cannon Staci Carlston Cannon & Company Cannon & Company Summit Sotheby’s

Michael Carmody Keller Williams

Joel Carson Utah RE, PC

Olivia Bostwick Ranlife RE

Lana Ames Windermere RE

Melanie Bowers Keller Williams

Lori Chamberlain Chamberlain & Co.

Scott Chapman Kimberly Chatterton Nancy Christensen Chapman Richards Coldwell Banker Boardwalk Realty

Mason Conley Keller Williams

Alicia Connell Coldwell Banker

Terry Cononelos Chapman Richards

Dana Conway Utah Key RE

Traci Crockett Keller Williams

Sally Domichel Coldwell Banker

John Dowdle Destination RE

Abbey Drummond Windermere RE

Michael Egan Keller Williams

Rachel Eliason Keller Williams

Trent Escandon Equity RE

Gregory Fabiano Dwellings RE

Angela Flint U.S. Title Insurance

Dave Frederickson Keller Williams

Eric Freebairn Ivory RE

Michael Gabel Keller Williams

Eric Gardiner Blackwell Realty

Diane Gates Coldwell Banker

Lori Gee Berkshire Hathaway

Amy Gibbons Selling Salt Lake

Jennifer Gilchrist Utah Key RE

Kristel Gough Kathleen Granderath RealtyOne Group RealtyOne Group

Joel Hair Ulrich Realtors®

Scott Hall Equity RE

Bradley Hansen Windermere RE

Scott Harvey Coldwell Banker

Craig Hawker Bill Heiner Action Team Realty Cannon & Company

Ryan Henderson RealtyPath

V. Wade Henderson Utah RE, PC

Alicia Holdaway Summit Sotheby’s

Ryan Hook RE/MAX Assoc.

Kate Horsley Equity RE

Tara Horton CW Group RE

Dawn Houghton Coldwell Banker

Abby Howell EDGE Realty

Johnathan Hunter Century 21

Bryan Hurd Keller Williams

Steven Johnson RE/MAX Assoc.

Brenda Jones Century 21

Tammy Jones Century 21

Jason Judd Keller Wililams

Lisa Jungemann Windermere RE

Tony Ketterling Equity RE

Lori Khodadad Coldwell Banker

Adam Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s

Carolyn Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s

Ryan Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s

Shawndra Kirkham Move Utah RE

Michelle Koch Koch & Company

Vann Larson Village RE

Craig Lelis Coldwell Banker

Hector Delgado Innova Realty

Todd Feld Coldwell Banker

14 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

Jeff Justice Summit Sotheby’s

Grady Kohler Windermere RE

Rikki Curtis RealtyOne Group

Cameron Burnside Equity 1st Realty

Bob Cusick RealtyPath

Kris Hudson Ulrich Realtors ®

Tiffany Hull Woodside Homes

Stephen Karpakis Paragon Properties

Bettina Katz Berkshire Hathaway

Haydee Lara RealtyPath

Claire Larson Woodside Homes

Corry Sue Cutler On Q Financial

Troy Darger RE/MAX Results

Robert Farnsworth Stockton Farnsworth RE/MAX Assoc.

RE/MAX Assoc.

Ah, yes... disruptor; today's current buzzword.

Today's clickbait. We live in a world searching for the next disruptor, the next shiny thing, the next fancy technology.

So what is a disruptor? /dis•rupt•or/ Noun A company that changes the traditional way an industry operates in a new and effective way.

With that definition in mind, let us offer a glimpse into our world, our culture, our mission. 11 years ago we saw an opportunity, the opportunity to, dare we say... disrupt.

The goal was lofty, the vision, ambitious.

Redefine an industry. Do it different, do it better, do it right. We assembled a team of dreamers, a group that believed that the impossible was possible, a group that looked at every turn as an opportunity to question the norm and to expect more. There were losses along the way, mistakes, doubt – but the commitment to building a full-service real estate brokerage continued forward.

Change started to take shape, the disruption began, clients at every price point and area experienced something different, something inspiring – something we call luxury. Sales grew, services and staff increased, the industry noticed. All of a sudden we looked around and we had done the thing, the redefining of what real estate could be. But we're not done yet, the disruption has just begun, the experience only gets better from here, because this now family of dreamers is committed to creating the marketing that others can't, the experience that others won't, and giving our clients what real estate should be: full-service and inspired.

summitsothebysrealty.com ©MMXIX Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a licensed trademark to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates, Inc. An Equal Opportunity Company. Each Office Is Independently Owned And Operated. Copyright© Summit Sotheby’s International Realty 2019.

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2019 Distinguished Service Awards Stacy Lockhart Utah Key RE

Hector Lombana Beehive RE

John Lucky Coldwell Banker

Kerri Luther Equity RE

Teresa Macias Epic RE

David Madsen United RE

Jeannette Mason Keller Williams

Cathy Maxfield RE/MAX Assoc.

Katherine McCabe Windermere RE

Chris McCandless CW Real Estate

Shirlee McGarry RealtyPath

Michael McPhie Equity RE

Carlos Nelson-Tobar Kristi Nicholl Durrant RealtyPath Coldwell Banker

Anna Parker Utah Key RE

Holly Parkin United RE

Sophie Reece Tony Reece Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway

Shane Roxburgh Berkshire Hathaway

Janice Smith Coldwell Banker

Brandon Nielson Equity RE

Debra Nisson Berkshire Hathaway

Daniel Nix Coldwell Banker

Rob Ockey Century 21

Joan Pate Berkshire Hathaway

John Patton Coldwell Banker

Michael Perry Keller Williams

Steve Perry Wise Choice RE

George Richards Chapman Richards

Tamra Rieper Keller Williams

Jimmy Rex Keller Williams

Jamie Sacks James Eric Santistevan Melissa Schelin Coldwell Banker Keller Williams Signature RE

Linda Secrist Berkshire Hathaway

Linda Mandrow Coldwell Banker

Heather Mangan RealtyPath

Carolee Mecham Jay Mecham Donald Mendenhall Cannon & Company Cannon & Company Equity RE

Joseph Olschewski Ulrich Realtors®

Katie Olsen Coldwell Banker

Myra Petersen Windermere RE

Troy Peterson Equity RE

DeAnna Robbins Scott Robbins Summit Sotheby’s Summit Sotheby’s

Dave Robison goBE Realty

Britt Sharp Ranlife RE

Mary Olsen Utah Key RE

Linda Martinez Century 21

Michael Morgan RealtyPath

Paz Ortiz IPRO Realty Network

Ricky Martinez REMAX Masters

Angie Nelden Annie Nelson Summit Sotheby’s Ponderosa Properties

Jodie Osofsky Signature RE

Joan Pok Donna Pozzuoli Suzanne Preston RealtyOne Group Berkshire Hathaway Ranlife RE

Jesus Roldan RealtyPath

Kirsten Rose Michael Rowe Exit Realty Success Berkshire Hathaway

Kelly Shuldberg RE/MAX Metro

Chris Sidwell Summit Sotheby’s

Jeff Sidwell Laurel Simmons Summit Sotheby’s Summit Sotheby’s

Heidi Stapel Wasatch Realty

Wendy Starling Starling RE

Scott Steadman Windermere RE

Lee Stern Keller Williams

Shelly Tripp Coldwell Banker

Laurann Turner Windermere RE

Justin Udy Century 21

Scott Maruri Keller Williams

Terry Simmons Utah Key RE

Stephen Ostler EXP Realty

Jennifer Mascaro The Mascaro Group

Heather Nelson Utah Key RE

Tara Paras Paras RE

Lisa Radke RE/MAX Results

Chad Rawlins Live Work Play

Merilee Rowley Selling Salt Lake

Heather Roxburgh Keller Williams

Debra Sjoblom Chapman Richards

Liz Slager Summit Sotheby’s

Dawn Stevens RealtyOne Group

Mona Stevens Keller Williams

Brandi Strong Berkshire Hathaway

Matthew Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®

Michael Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®

Nathan Ulrich Ulrich Realtors ®

Tricia Vanderkooi Coldwell Banker

Paul Smith Market Source RE

Randy Smith Equity RE

Catherine Sneyd Windermere RE

Joey Sutorius Coldwell Banker

Brady Tanner Prime Residential

Dan Taylor Coldwell Banker

Jessica Terry Century 21

Greg Tracy IMPOWER RE

Rich Varga Keller Williams

Ryan Volmar Ranlife RE

Melodie Waldron RE/MAX Metro

H. Blaine Walker Summit Sotheby’s

Joyce Walker RE/MAX Assoc.

Carlye Webb RealtyOne Group

Jamie White RealtyOne Group

Tracy White Weekley Homes

Craig Whiting Rock RE Group

Paul Willden Influence Realty

Durven Wilson goBE Realty

Alexander Winder RE/MAX Results

Douglas Winder RE/MAX Results

Bree Winegar Ulrich Realtors ®

David Winters RE/MAX Assoc.

Cindy Wood Cindy Wood Realty

Ian Wood Three Door RE

Lisa Woodbury Windermere RE

Thomas Wright Summit Sotheby’s

Margene Wrigley Wrigley Realty

Jennifer Yates RealtyPath

Elaine Zambos Utah Key RE

Corey Zander Zander RE Team

Tamara Zander Zander RE Team

Brian Summers K2 Realty

Dawn Wolfe Ranlife RE

Matthew Wolfe Ranlife RE

18 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

Sharon Spratley Kyrsten St. John Berkshire Hathaway RealtyOne Group

Susie Martindale REMAX Masters

Lokibaho©/ iStock

OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes?

Baby boomers are getting ready to sell one quarter of America’s homes over the next two decades. The problem is many of these properties are in places where younger people no longer want to live.

By Laura Kusisto The Wall Street Journal SUN CITY, Ariz.—When this Phoenix suburb opened on Jan. 1, 1960, it was billed as the original retirement community. From above, it would look like a UFO landing site, laid out in rings to mimic halos surrounding the sun. Just past the entrance, a billboard flanked by rows of palm trees promised “An Active New Way Of Life.”

bar. “The finest resort couldn’t supply more,” boasted a fictional resident of Sun City in a promotional video from the period.

On the weekend Sun City opened, cars were backed up for two miles as some 100,000 visitors waited to gawk at a village built specifically for adults over the age of 50. They found a new nine-hole golf course and a community center with 250-seat auditorium, swimming pool, shuffleboard court and lawn bowling green.

Elsewhere there was a 30,000-square-foot Grand Shopping Center, a Safeway grocery store and a Hiway House Motor Hotel, where you could have a cup of coffee or something stronger at the

But the same demographics that propelled Sun City’s rise now pose an existential challenge to this suburb as baby boomers age. More than a third of Sun City’s homes are expected to turn over by 2027 as seniors die, move in with their children or migrate to assisted living facilities, according to Zillow. Nearly two thirds of the homes will turn over by 2037.

20 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

The concept was a huge hit. The developer, Del Webb, sold about as many homes in the first year as executives had expected to sell in three. Six decades later Sun City is home to 38,000 people.

The big question looming in this neighborhood— and dozens of others like it in the Southeast and

Rust Belt—is what happens to everything from home prices to the local economy when so many homes post ‘For Sale’ signs around the same time?

The U.S. is at the beginning of a tidal wave of homes hitting the market on the scale of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. This time it won’t be driven by overbuilding, easy credit or irrational exuberance, but by an inevitable fact of life: the passing of the baby boomer generation.

One in eight owner-occupied homes in the U.S., or roughly nine million residences, are set to hit the market from 2017 through 2027 as the baby boomers start to die in larger numbers, according to an analysis by Issi Romem conducted while he was a senior director of housing and urban economics at Zillow. That is up from roughly 7 million homes in the prior decade.

By 2037, one quarter of the U.S. for-sale housing stock, or roughly 21 million homes will be vacated by seniors. That is more than twice the number of new properties built during a 10-year period that spanned the last housing bubble.

Most of these homes will be concentrated in traditional retirement communities in Arizona and Florida, according to Zillow, or parts of the Rust Belt that have been losing population for

decades. A more modest infusion of new housing is expected in pricey coastal neighborhoods of New York or San Francisco where younger Americans are still flocking in large numbers.

The Generation X Problem On the face of it, this doesn’t sound all bad. Dying homeowners have always needed to be replaced by younger ones and the U.S. has for a number of years suffered from a shortage of housing, a development that has dampened recent home sales activity and kept many millennials stuck in rentals.

But the buyers coming behind the baby boomers, the Gen Xers, are a smaller and more financially precarious generation with different preferences, posing a new kind of test for the housing market.

One problem is that the bulk of the supply won’t necessarily be in places where these new buyers want to live. Gen Xers and the younger millennials have shown thus far they would rather be in cities or suburbs in major metropolitan areas that offer strong Wi-Fi and plenty of shops and restaurants within walking distance—like the Frisco suburbs of Dallas or the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle.

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They have little interest in migrating to planned, age-restricted retirement enclaves in sunnier corners of the U.S. lined with golf courses, community centers and man-made lakes—like The Villages, a community of 115,000 in central Florida. Innovations such as voice-recognition technology and ride-share drivers are also making it easier for older people to stay in their existing homes and eschew these retirement communities altogether.

Another challenge is that younger buyers also may not have the financial strength to absorb all of this new supply. New research from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies found that households in their preretirement years, age 50 to 64, are less likely to own a home than prior generations, have suffered from stagnant income growth since 2000, and are more debt-burdened, including by student loans.

The consequences of a housing sales glut are potentially wide-reaching. A mismatch between supply and demand in places like Florida, Arizona and Nevada could offer new fiscal challenges that are already familiar to aging cities of the Rust Belt: a shrinking tax base and less money for crucial services like roads and police.

Home construction could also falter, dampening an important contributor to the local economy.

“To the extent the local economy is dependent on a vibrant senior population, then it will be more difficult,” said William Frey, a senior fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. “Homes will be up for sale and not bought as quickly.”

Housing prices are already stagnating in some places like St. Louis and Youngstown, Ohio as older people die and young people aren’t there to replace them, according to Zillow.

Jordan Rappaport, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said he is confident that affordable cities in the Midwest will eventually be able to attract millennials to fill the housing left empty by baby boomers because larger cities on the coasts are becoming too expensive.

“My own sense is that if you’re a city with amenities, if you’re a city where the firms are reasonably productive, I wouldn’t be worried about what you’re facing,” he said.

More vulnerable, he said, are small towns and rural areas where young people are less likely to migrate, depressing housing prices indefinitely.

“Those are the places that are going to seriously struggle,” he said.

Some market observers say they are not worried about a housing bust on the scale of the 2008 crash that decimated communities across the Sunbelt and Southeast. Their argument: This time

22 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

the wave of available homes will hit the market more slowly. In the Phoenix area, for example, more than 131,000 units will be vacated by baby boomers during the decade ending in 2027, according to Zillow. That is roughly equal to the number of additional new homes sold in Phoenix over a much shorter period at the height of the last housing bubble from 2004 to 2007, according to CoreLogic Inc. A more likely scenario instead is for villages and towns designed around older people to transform themselves. Once-pricey communities may become affordable to retirees with more modest incomes, or some may reinvent themselves by lifting age restrictions and adding amenities like playgrounds and schools in an effort to appeal to Gen Xers or millennials in need of more affordably priced housing.

“Those places will have a new normal, which is that they will tend to be cheaper,” said Mr. Romem, who recently left Zillow to start his own consulting firm, MetroSight.

Yoga Pants and Orange Peels Builders are already taking note and adjusting their strategies. Bob Flaherty, group president for Arizona and Utah at Toll Brothers, said he retooled plans for a new 2,200-home community in the Surprise suburb of Phoenix to make it more adaptable to shifting demographics.

About 30 miles west of Phoenix, the development sits off a largely barren strip of highway. “You start driving west toward L.A. and you think, ‘Oh

my gosh I’m getting out here,” he said.

Given the relatively remote location, Mr. Flaherty said he initially envisioned an age-restricted 55-plus community dubbed Sterling Grove. But as more businesses began moving to the area he elected instead to mix some blocks with homes that will be restricted to older residents with many that won’t.

The community, which is still under construction, features advertisements of attractive, fit, diverse Boomers in yoga pants enjoying cocktails and lattes garnished with orange peels.

“We just said, you know what, in 20 years who’s going to live here? And even in 10 do you want to buy a new place where someone is toting around an oxygen tank?” Mr. Flaherty said.

Instead of only offering small bungalows as initially planned, Toll will offer a mix of options at Sterling Grove, including 5,000-square-foot homes big enough for a family. Prices will range from roughly $300,000 to $1 million.

The community will feature amenities like three swimming pools, tennis courts, a fitness center, a spa and salon. There is a clubhouse restaurant dubbed “The Maison” and a Jack Nicklausdesigned golf course—features likely to appeal to older residents but that won’t be exclusive to them, Mr. Flaherty said.

He looks to his own neighborhood Arcadia in

northeast Phoenix as a model for how to mix different generations. Younger families, he said, have replaced older residents who died.

“It was always known as this older community,” he said. “‘Watch out, you’re going to see cars driving by and it doesn’t look like anyone is in it,’” referring to elderly people who could barely see over the steering wheel. “All of a sudden the retail is starting to boom. There are young families with strollers and kids riding their bikes.”

The Sun Is Still Rising In nearby Sun City, little about the village’s core concept has changed since 1960. The local homeowners association still enforces a covenant requiring at least one resident of each household to be over 55 years old (up from 50 in 1960) and the community is unapologetically tailored to silver-haired snowbirds.

Many of the homes are two-bedroom, ecrucolored bungalows featuring low-maintenance rock gardens instead of yards. Garbage cans are hidden in holes in the ground to avoid disrupting the idyllic feel. There are no schools (or children), but local clubs and services abound, including stained-glass making, ukulele lessons, water walking, paper shred-a-thons and prescriptiondrug take backs. Golf cart crossings make driving a tedious task.

Demand for Sun City is still strong by at least one measure: prices. Home values increased 7 percent in Sun City in the year ending in September, according to Zillow, compared with a 5 percent jump in all of Phoenix in the same period.

One snowbird who landed recently in Sun City is Donna Lyons, a retired bookkeeper from upstate New York. She was looking for places in Florida and inadvertently put in her phone number on a Sun City site. When a Realtor® called she was skeptical because she had never been to Arizona.

But she quickly discovered the cost of living in Sun City was less than other places she was looking at.

“I just fell in love over the internet. It happens all the time but it’s usually with people,” she said.

When she moved to Sun City she immediately felt young again—and compared with many of her neighbors, she was. The 61 year-old no longer

24 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | December 2019

felt self-conscious about her varicose veins when sunbathing by the pool and found herself sought after on the singles scene. “They’re really just looking for someone who can cook,” she joked.

The development even has a “next generation” club for people like herself who are under 70 years old. “Their main export industry is selling homes to [older] people who are coming from more expensive parts of the country,” Mr. Romem said.

Ms. Lyons, like many residents, is quick to say she didn’t come there to die. She has been learning Spanish, taking aqua fitness classes, making ceramics and volunteering at the Sun City Posse, a community watchdog that checks on residents’ homes when they are visiting their grandchildren or helps bring people home when they get out of the hospital.

She is going on a cruise this month and isn’t quite sure what she will do with herself since she has all the same amenities a short walk from her home.

“It’s a permanent vacation here,” she said.

Local housing consultant Jim Belfiore said it would be challenging to adapt Sun City for younger residents. “The market would be soft for a number of years,” he said.

But some in Sun City are making adjustments they hope will be attractive to the next generation.

Martha Lattie, the 57-year-old marketing manager for the Sun City Home Owners Association, is posting pictures and videos of the community on Instagram and Twitter. She noted that local recreation centers now have Wi-Fi. “Just the things that people who are 20 years younger take for granted that they’ll have,” said Ms. Lattie, who moved to Sun City with her husband about a year ago.

She said she has also pushed the homeowners association to hold more of its meetings in the evening rather than the middle of the day, so working people can attend.

Replacing former residents with new ones isn’t a novel challenge for retirement communities, said Joelyn Higgins, the communications and marketing coordinator for the Recreation Centers of Sun City. Sun City, she said, is constantly remodeling and putting in upgrades like automatically opening doors and data ports.

Some changes are more of a stretch. “We’ve got to balance what kids are doing today versus what truly they’re going to be willing to do when they’re in their 80s,” Ms. Higgins said. “We’re not going to build a rock climbing wall.”

Write to Laura Kusisto at laura.kusisto@wsj.com.

Reprinted by Salt Lake Realtor® magazine with permission of Dow Jones and Company. License Number 4716611326224. Copyright 2019.

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OCTOBER HOUSING WATCH Salt Lake County Home Sales Rise in October; Davis County Sales up 12% Salt Lake County home sales (all housing types) increased slightly in September, while sales in neighboring Davis County continued a double-digit percent increase.

Roughly 1,600 Salt Lake homes were sold in October by Realtors®, approximately 30 more home sales compared to sales in October 2018. In the first 10 months of 2019, there were 15,253 home sales across Salt Lake County, a 2 percent decrease compared to 15,492 sales in the same 10-month period last year.

Nationally, total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, were up nearly 5 percent from a year ago (5.22 million in October 2018), according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Salt Lake County home prices were up 7 percent in October. The median price of all housing types sold for the month increased to $348,000. In Davis County, the median price climbed 8 percent to $335,000.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said he expects added sales growth in the coming months. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Yun. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.”

First-time buyers were responsible for 31 percent of sales in October, down from 33 percent in September and identical to the 31 percent recorded in October 2018.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in October 2019 unchanged from September but down from the 15 percent figure recorded in October 2018. All-cash sales accounted for 19 percent of transactions in October, up from 17 percent in September but down from 23 percent in October 2018.

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2 percent of sales in October, unchanged from September but down from 3 percent in October 2018.

“It is great to see home sales rise along with an increase in housing permits,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, CA. “Both home buyers and the home sellers are being rewarded by these developments, and we see that conditions remain extremely favorable for real estate investment in America.”

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Salt Lake & Davis County HOME SALES

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OCTOBER 2019

OCTOBER 2018

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OCTOBER 2019 December 2019 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 27

28 | Salt Lake Realtor ÂŽ | December 2019

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