STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | Portfolio

STATISTICS AND

PROBABILITY

Michelia Julienne Baduria 11 STEM - San Vitores

STATISTICS AND

PROBABILITY Michelia Julienne Baduria

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics

XI

San Vitores

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I CAN SOLVE PROBL E M S

Cite an experience when you exhibited attitude and skills that allowed you to successfully solve a problem in a Problem-Solving Worksheet, a Problem Set or a Summative Assessment. How can this attitude or skills be used in problems beyond this course?

Admittedly, I’ve heard that Statistics and Probability would be hard especially knowing that the finals would be oral and only 30 minutes. With all that in mind, I was anxious and scared. I can’t deny that at some point it really was hard that I just wanted to give up but I didn’t. Moving forward to almost the end of the quarter, before finals, I was more nervous than ever. I’ve worked so hard over the past weeks for the E and I thought to myself that I can’t screw up now.

Then it struck me, I’ve worked so hard already and I can’t stop now. Throughout the whole quarter, I’ve already seen that hard work and preparation truly pays off. Because of that, I used my planning skills to prepare for my final. I planned on re-watching the lectures, going over my notes and making flashcards, and answering the reviewers. This was exactly what I did, I had discipline and took time to focus and study hard. I even attended a STEM Excel session which I could say was really helpful and fun to be able to meet and study with new people in the community. I did all this for almost a week and at the end of the final, once again, my efforts have paid off. Because of all my preparations, I was able solve the given problem. and the oral question successfully. Although I made finals a problem and worried about it so much, I decided to channel all that into working hard so that I am well prepared by the time I face it. For things like this, I strongly believe that planning, preparation, and hard work is key, together with the determination we have set.

Beyond this course, all these could also be applied. These help us have a clear path towards solving our problems. Anticipating a problem we will face in the future, having a plan of action will guide us to solving the problem and create the path towards it. With our planning, we prepare the materials we need to solve it. We prepare in various ways, and sometimes we face a problem without prior preparation because we don’t expect it. If this happens, we could still work towards planning how to solve it for, as mentioned, it creates the path to solution. Finally, all these wouldn’t be possible without hard work. In everything we do, we put in the work to be able to achieve it and even excel.

This is the last year of Mr. Rodrigo Duterte as the President of the Philippines. In his campaign for the 2016 Presidential Elections, he promised a lot of things to solve if he was voted as the president. Research on his promises back then and look if he was able to solve these problems. As a problem-solver and the future of the country, cite one problem/promise of Pres. Duterte, and think of a way this can be solved.

In the case of President Duterte, one of the things that he wanted to solve was the internet access and he even promised to “Develop a national broadband plan, provide free-wifi in public areas” (Suarez et al. 2021).

Although there has already been progress with this, Suarez and others (2021) reported that this would only be accomplished a year after his term. In a span of four years only 7,556 sites have been built and they wish to build 67,233 sites by 2022.

Source: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1458172/looking-back-at-dutertes-sona-promises

In my opinion, and in relation to how I solved my own personal problem of finals, this could’ve been accomplished within his term with proper planning, focus, and hard work. If this was planned well even before he promised it, then it could’ve been done within his term seeing that there has been progress. However, the progress they have made has only been little. I think that this shows the lack of planning and, if not focus, sense of priority of this project. Because they already started, this tells us that it really isn’t impossible especially if they work hard enough. Keeping in mind that this is a big project, we know that it would require hard work which is why I think this is very much needed. From the planning, to the determination, and hard-work to reach his goal, I think that the issue with internet access would be solved more efficiently and immediately.

Describe your working relationship with your group mates and classmates during the term. How can this experience allow you to reach out to others outside of your class?

I CARE FOR

OTH E R S

My group mates and I have been together for two quarters now, and I honestly love working with them. It really isn’t hard working with them because we have created a relationship where everyone is there for each other and listens to what they have to say. We all double check for errors, especially that one time when I was on the document with Yana and John.

They spotted a mistake and immediately brought it up. It was also quickly heard and fixed. In my case, in the Problem Set, I solved in a way that I guess was actually more difficult. Zaq told me about it and instead of contesting that I was right, I listened and accepted my mistake.

This quarter, we also had to work together with the finals. I think during our practices and preparation, our teamwork was evident as well as our openness to each other. We were very open to suggestions on how the problem would be solved and worked together. I strongly believe that we were able to do so because we saw each other as equals. We were so open about opinions with the answer and the solution because we knew that we ourselves are humans and we make mistakes too.

I think this is a factor in creating a good relationship with others, especially with the people we will work with. Listen, Accept, and Understand, this is what got our group a good relationship with each other. Additionally, the way we see each other as equals have also played a part in making our group work. No one is better than the other because we know that we are all capable of being right and at the same time making a mistake. On the other hand, in my opinion, President Duterte didn’t exactly exhibit these with the people he works with.

Outside my class, I participate in several involvements, like Math Org, APCO, SOLE, and the ACO Projects Committee, wherein I am part of the creatives. Having a relationship where we help each other through constructive criticism and accept feedback from others, will help us prepare the best outputs possible. I personally love to hear critiques and comments to help me better my work.

Specifically, in the ACO Projects Committee, I am one of the the creatives co-head. With my role and experience with my group, I would want to promote being open, understanding, and accepting of criticism because, as I have said, it will really bring out the best in us. I will also take part in their work, as I should, and make them feel that we are equals, as I myself accept criticism from them.

In Mr. Duterte’s term as the president, do you think he established a good relationship with his vice president, his cabinet and other government officials? How about with his constituents? How about his relations with other countries? What would you have done if you were in his position?

From what I see, he shuts down the people around him even if they have good ideas and in a way saw himself superior even if he is still human. I think this is why Vice President Leni Robredo couldn’t really do much. It looks like there was always a competition between them that only Duterte could win. With his Filipino peers, he acts more of a boss than a leader, taking control of everything and dismissing the opinion of others. However, with other countries he isn’t like this. When he interacts with other countries, it seems that this is a whole different person. He is friendly and immediately complies with them without even giving a fight. From that, I think that with the officials abroad he was able to have a good relationships but with Filipino officials he was only able to establish a good relationship with some.

If I were in his position, I would surely want to hear the views of the people I work with and the citizens of the Philippines. After all, this would benefit them more than me. For me being a leader means that you work WITH the team, you are still equal to them. To be put in his position, I would keep this in mind. I would remind myself that we are all human and wrongs are inevitable. I think that this would lead to me being more open to criticism, knowing that this could make me be better for the sake of others, as they would be more open to bringing up certain matters. Personally, I would not only hear their concerns but also listen, understand, and address them. I would allow others to be the best versions of themselves and maximize their potential as others have done for me previously.

I

AM A

CRITICAL THINKER

Identify a difficult situation during the term and share how you faced this challenge. How did you make the important decisions to address the concern?

The task that I had difficulties in was the Problem Solving Worksheet. I honestly crammed it a little at first because I wasn’t sure of how I could solve it. I tried understanding it for days but when I couldn’t, I neglected it. When I felt like the deadline was close, basically a few days before, I knew I had to address this challenge. By putting the pressure of the deadline on myself it urged me to finish it and I decided to focus on it and devote time to

it. Around that time, I had already finished my other tasks beforehand so that I could really focus and set time just for the PSW. Although this doesn’t really show proper time management skills when I started, by the end, I realized that it is what I learned. To help solve my difficulty with it and other things in my life, I attempted to manage my time well and really devote time to solving it. Focusing eased the stress and made it more efficient to do the PSW. Again, with the pressure I put on myself, this experience taught me to improve my time management skills and focus during the time allotted with it. I used what I learned for the rest of the quarter.

Additionally, and mainly for the finals, I again pressured myself, reminded myself of all the past efforts I've put in to this course and why I was doing this, for my future. This led me to allot one hour every night to practice with my group and almost a whole day in which I studied with my friends. I knew the finals, being done in a manner I am not used to, would be heavy. The afternoon before until the morning before the final, I only reviewed it. This helped me retain all the information needed.

A recent survey was released by Pulse Asia about the May 2022 National Elections. See this link for reference: https://www.pulseasia.ph/february2021-nationwide-survey-on-themay-2022-elections/ With your current knowledge in Statistics and Probability, what are your opinions about the survey?

As for the results of Pulse Asia’s survey for the 2022 elections, I found shocking. I didn’t expect the leading candidates that this survey presented because this is not really what we see in the media, particularly the results for the presidential race.

According to the survey, Sara Duterte is leading with a 27% voter preference. I honestly expected Vice-President Leni Robredo to win but the survey shows that she only has 7% voter preference.

Although this survey presents these statistics, they are just statistics. With that, upon seeing the survey provided, since I devoted time to studying Statistics and Probability, I noticed some familiar terms like sample size, confidence level, margin of error, and estimates. First of all, it is important to note that these are just estimates from a sample, in this case, a sample of 2,400 Filipino citizens above 18.

From what I learned in class, the larger the sample size, the closer the statistic is to the population parameter. Considering this, I think the results may be inaccurate since the sample is only a very small part of our population. Aside from that, I think that the confidence level was quite high for such a sample size that is small when compared to the true population.

It is important to keep in mind that we are only given estimates. This is why, in my opinion, it was important to state the margin of error with this statistic in its report. Often people think that statistics, for the most part, are true and that there are no errors. Despite this belief, there is indeed room for mistakes as reflected by the margin of error. It stated that the margin of error for the sample was -2 and +2 with a 95% confidence level. On the other hand, the proportion interval from geographic areas (Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao), still remained the 95% confidence level but a -4 and +4 margin of error. Stating information about the survey, including the sample size, confidence level, and margin of error, cleared that it is not the whole population, especially because the sample is such a small part of the population, these statistics may still change by the actual election and have faults with their margin of error being the maximum error they may commit.

Ultimately, these statistics may help us have an idea of what to expect in the upcoming elections but we must take note of the possible errors which lead to changes of this in the future. With regard to the actual elections, these may also change since the sample size is still small compared to our population and the voter turnout by then.

Name a lesson or a skill that you have mastered this term. How can you use this concretely in the community or your future workplace?

I CAN CONTRIBUTE

This term I’ve mastered being analytical and analyzing problems very well. In all honesty, this is what this course requires because in my opinion, problems given seem easy but are actually more complex. For example, at first glance the PSW 1 would seem easy, but no. It required a lot of equations. It used geometric distribution but a different kind from the one in the module. The formula used was the Infinite Geometric Sequence but we had to make it so that it was similar to the given formula in the module. It required us to analyze and compare the geometric distribution formula and the formula for geometric sequence. I remember that we saw how they were similar in one of the consultation sessions we had.

With that, it really helped me in solving my PSW. I saw the connections and what these variables or equations represent which really was the main part in solving and explaining my work. Throughout the whole quarter I think that I was really required to analyze problems to be able to know what equations to use or simply the process of me solving it. Once I have analyzed it, I can then move to deciding what I can use in order to solve it. My difficulty this quarter was not really the math and computation required but the analysis of the problem given, but since then I have learned to master this.

Aside from that, my analysis would also be used to determine what formula to use which is why I believe that I have mastered decision-making as well. In the midterm, there was a problem which required two formulas, geometric and hypergeometric distribution. This was one of the problems where you would use a certain formula to solve and after my analysis, I decided on using the two formulas. There are many instances where we have to choose what formula to use, usually based on the given. Like with statistical inference, whether we are estimating the proportion or the mean, whether to use the z-formula or tformula. And, in hypothesis testing, whether we use z-test or t-test and if we reject or we do not reject the claim. Additionally, with this subject, it really showed how much thought should really be put into making decisions. We should think very well first before deciding because at first things may seem to be the best option but are actually the least beneficial for us and others. Use data gathered, statistics and probabilities, to make sound decisions.

As for the future of our country, what do you think can you contribute as early as now for our country?

Furthermore, I, personally, am not eligible to vote yet for the 2022 elections.

However if I were to be eligible, I would use the skills I mastered of analysis and decision-making to vote wisely. Researching beforehand the capabilities and qualifications of each candidate, I would analyze how that would make them competent to be a future leader of our country especially if they are what the country needs. Not only will I assess the candidate’s background but also what they will do for the community. Using all that, I would make a decision on who I would vote for that would be beneficial to the community. Similarly, if I were to appoint a leader of a company or in my workspace in the future, I would do the same, assess their characteristics and capabilities to ensure that we will have a fit leader. Put a lot of thought into big decisions that could affect not only me but everyone around me.

As early as now, I would guide others towards developing the same skills I have mastered in this quarter. I believe that this will help them to vote wisely. Even if I will not vote, I would still analyze the potential leaders of our country. With all the data I have gathered, I will use it to spread awareness of what are the capabilities of each to help the decision making process. Finally, I will encourage everyone to vote wisely and think before making big decisions because it is for the future of our country.

INVEST YOUR INVEST YOUR INVEST YOUR

TIME

and

EFF ORT

For my output I created this graphic or Poster saying “Invest your time and effort”. This is my most important learning for this quarter, we have to invest our time and effort for something we want.

I believe that what really pushed me to do my best is the phrase: “para sa pangarap”. In the future, I am interested in being in the field of mathematics and data sciences as the challenge it brings is what drives me to do my best. I know that Statistics and Probability would be very beneficial to me and throughout the quarter I reminded myself of this.

Pursuing mathematics and data sciences is a long-term career goal of mine but I needed to first achieve my short-term goals. A goal of mine that I hoped to achieve this quarter was, like any other student, to get good grades.

To achieve this, I knew I had to do my best. My best requires effort and time, especially for this subject that there’s a lot of data to go through and computations that go in which is quite time consuming. I knew that investing would be the best option for me to reach my goal. I sacrificed and spent hours doing notes, watching videos, and really understanding the lesson. I’ve come to realize that with this subject, and any other subject, I am not only doing it for my grade but for my future as well and so I can contribute to the society.

Moving forward, modules in Statistics and Probability were way longer than I was used to. Seeing how many slides and how long the videos were discouraged me a bit. Sometimes, I would just want to play with my friends but I chose to remind myself of what I was doing this for; I am doing this to learn and for my future.

Although the tasks were reduced, they were still quite lengthy which I expected from this subject. With the midterm, we only had 32 hours to finish it. During that, I refrained from other activities and really invested the whole day and a half to answer it. Even before the 32 hours, I spent the whole weekend studying and preparing. Judging by my midterm grade and my grades over the past weeks, it is evident that truly investing your time and effort can help you reach your desired goals.

Additionally, alongside studying hard and giving time to get good grades, I also realized that I have to invest time for myself to be able to give out the best. In doing so, I made it a point to spend time with the people closest to me, after all, I wanted and needed them in my life for it to have color. Unfortunately, I only realized this later on because I was distancing myself from them before, just to do school. I rarely ate with my family and when they approached me I would even be annoyed.

With my friends, I barely spoke to them and sometimes completely ignored them.

On the brighter side, over the past weeks, as I allotted time for my studies, I got to finish tasks early which gave me enough time to spend with my family. With that, at night, I would visit my grandparents and talk about how my day went. During the weekends, my dad and I enjoy crafting things. We would create different things that made us happy like, recently, we made a led sign.

Part of my self-care would also be the time I spend with my friends. We would either play games or just be on Discord talking about our life lately since we study in different schools. Other than that, we also study together. Sometimes, even if they don’t have anything to do, they, even I, would just stay on the call. We usually do this every night or just as much as we can. When we study, I get to invest in both my personal relationships and my academics. We all help each other out, and motivate each other to do our best.

Spending time with people and activities other than academics, I got to focus on and take care of myself which enabled me to put my best foot forward. This way, I could also achieve the good grades I hoped for.

Indeed, investing time and effort, not only for your goals but also for yourself and the relationships you have, will allow you to achieve them and excel in all aspects of your life. I believe that my grades and how I am now is proof enough that this aids us towards our goals.

AND Life lessons and everything in between

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Michelia Julienne Baduria