Q2 2026 Market Report S T. P E T E R S B U R G C O N D O M I N I U M M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E ZIP 33701 · Q2 2025 – Q2 2026 · Data: Stellar MLS
Prepared July 2026
MSC
DEVELOPER
SERVICES
|
S T.
PETERSBURG
MARKET
INTELLIGENCE
One Quarter, Two Markets: The Headline and the Underlying The downtown St. Petersburg condo market is a tale of two stories: the underlying market for condo owners in the area and the market impacts in new construction with historic deliveries with two of the largest towers ever built in the region. The underlying market in Q2 showed ongoing stability. Not including 400 Central and Art House, 64 closings were recorded, up 6.7% year-over-year at an average close price of $1.1 million, also up approximately 5.6% year-over-year, which resulted in a total of $70.6 million of closed inventory, up 12.6% YOY. The days on market increased to 86 days, up 6.6%, leading to eight months of inventory, which is balanced slightly in favor of buyers. There were an additional 48 developer closings between 400 Central and Art House, totaling $142.6 million. The first half of 2026 has seen 469 units close worth $832.4 million. This is up from 132 units valued at $135.6 million in the first half of 2025. This statistic alone shows the strength of the market as a whole, as many of these residences were put under contract in the preceding years that had not been calculated in the strength of the market during that time.
Real context surrounding the statistics is the key to understanding the St. Petersburg condo market currently.
Simon P. Bacon Executive Director — Developer Services
Outlook: The two stories converge from here: with the towers substantially delivered, the blended tape drifts toward the underlying base through Q3–Q4. The 55 tower resale listings decide how gently — early resales cleared near developer pricing with minimal discounting. 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Q2 2026 | Key Findings — Headline vs. Underlying A L L C L O S I N G S v s U N D E R LY I N G ( E X C L . 4 0 0 C E N T R A L & A R T H O U S E D E V E L O P E R C L O S I N G S )
CLOSED TRANSACTIONS
AVG C LO S E D P R I C E
M O N T H S O F S U P P LY
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
112
64
$1.90M
$1.10M
2.9
8.0
▲ 86.7% YOY
▲ 6.7% YOY
▲ 82.2% YOY
▲ 5.6% YOY
Seller's Market
Balanced-to-Buyer's
MEDIAN CLOSED PRICE
VOLUME CLOSED
A V G D AY S O N M A R K E T
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
ALL
U N D E R LY I N G
$1.66M
$815K
$213.2M
$70.6M
49d
86d
▲ 95.0% YOY
▼ 4.1% YOY
▲ 240.2% YOY
▲ 12.6% YOY
▼ 39.5% YOY
▲ 6.6% YOY
Q2 2026 closed 112 transactions and $213.2M on the headline tape — the strongest second quarter on record — of which 48 closings and $142.6M were developer deliveries at 400 Central and Art House. The underlying columns remove those deliveries while keeping the eight tower resales. Active inventory: 163 listings ($267.3M); pending: 26 contracts ($23.3M). Underlying discount 4.3% vs. blended 2.5%; underlying QoQ deltas use the same ex-developer basis for Q1.
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P R I C E
T R E N D S
Avg & Median Closed Price | 10-Year Historical Two Price Stories When viewed in contrast to the underlying market, the impact of new construction on the St. Petersburg market is profound and has a lasting impression and impact on value.
Gray: all closings. Color: resale only — developer deliveries removed. Shaded bands mark delivery waves.
AV G C L O S E D — A L L
$1.90M
▲ 82.2% YOY
A V G C L O S E D — R E S A L E O N LY
$1.10M
▲ 5.8% YOY
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T R A N S A C T I O N
A C T I V I T Y
Closed vs. New Listings | 10-Year Historical Q2 2026 Highlights
112 CLOSED TRANSACTIONS ▲ 86.7% vs Q2 2025 (60) ▼ 68.6% vs Q1 2026 (357) Strongest second quarter on record for 33701
141 NEW LISTINGS ▼ 65.8% vs Q1 2026 (412) Q1's 412 new listings were tower units entering the MLS at closing. Q2's 141 — against 112 closings — is the first quarter where the ratio matters again: 55 of the active listings are tower resales.
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D O L L A R
V O L U M E
Dollar Volume | 10-Year Historical
Q1's record $623.6M signed pipeline converted into the largest closed quarter in the ZIP's history; Q2 signed volume remains roughly 3x its year-ago level. VOLUME LISTED
$297.5M
VOLUME SIGNED
▼ 58.9% QOQ
$200.7M
VOLUME CLOSED
▼ 67.8% QOQ
$213.2M
▼ 65.6% QOQ 6
M A R K E T
V E L O C I T Y
DOM vs. Listing Discount | 10-Year Historical Market Dynamics 33701 has always been a fast ZIP — the pre-COVID baseline is 55 days and a 2.6% discount, roughly half the pace of comparable downtown Gulf Coast markets. Q2's blended 49 days and 2.5% discount sit at baseline, but the mix flatters both: developer closings record minimal market time and full-price contracts. Expect both metrics to drift upward toward resale norms as deliveries finish — that drift is normalization, not weakening.
AV G D AY S O N M A R K E T ( 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 9 )
55d
Q2 2026: 49d
AV G L I S T I N G D I S C O U N T ( 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 9 )
2.6%
Q2 2026: 2.5%
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S E G M E N T A T I O N
Supply & Demand by Price Band | Q2 2026 A One-Tier Market Every band sits at or below the 6-month balance line — 3.0 to 6.6 months — including $3M+, where 17 active listings met 17 Q2 sales. Tower deliveries supplied buyers without swamping resale: absorption at the top of the price distribution kept pace with new supply. The $750K–$1.5M band is the loosest at 6.6 months — watch it as tower resale listings, concentrated at $1M+, come to market.
For developers: pricing is defensible across the curve on current absorption. The exposure is forward, not present — 55 tower resale listings will test whether delivered product holds its basis in the open market.
Method: band-level supply uses Q2 quarterly sales pace; the all-market 2.9 uses the trailing-12-month method.
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D E L I V E R Y
C Y C L E
New Construction Share | 10-Year Historical Deliveries Drive This Market Downtown St. Pete closings move in delivery waves: new product supplied 47% of 2019 closings, 50% of 2023's, and 41% in 2025 as the current wave began. 2026 runs at 29% year-to-date, but concentrated in a single quarter — Q1's 289 tower deliveries. With 400 Central and Art House substantially closed out (441 units, $839.7M since Q4 2025), the share falls toward single digits from here. Between waves, the tape goes quiet — 2020–22 averaged 1% new-construction share. The next leg of headline volume requires the next contracted tower; until then, resale carries the market.
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Q U A R T E R
C O M P A R I S O N
Q2 2026 vs. Q1 2026 & Q2 2025 | Key Metrics METRIC
Q2 2026
Q1 2026
QOQ Δ
Q2 2025
YO Y Δ
Avg Price Closed
$1.90M
$1.73M
▲ 9.8%
$1.04M
▲ 82.2%
Median Price Closed
$1.66M
$1.56M
▲ 6.1%
$850K
▲ 95.0%
$ / SF
$948
$935
▲ 1.4%
$685
▲ 38.4%
Closed Transactions
112
357
▼ 68.6%
60
▲ 86.7%
New Listings
141
412
▼ 65.8%
51
▲ 176.5%
Avg New Listing Price
$2.11M
$1.76M
▲ 20.1%
$1.06M
▲ 99.3%
Avg Days on Market
49d
20d
▲ 145.0%
81d
▼ 39.5%
Avg Listing Discount
2.5%
1.1%
▲ 1.4 pts
2.5%
— 0.0 pts
Volume Listed
$297.5M
$724.0M
▼ 58.9%
$54.0M
▲ 450.9%
Volume Signed
$200.7M
$623.6M
▼ 67.8%
$68.1M
▲ 194.7%
Volume Closed
$213.2M
$619.2M
▼ 65.6%
$62.7M
▲ 240.2%
2.9
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—
—
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Months of Supply
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Q 3
2 0 2 6
O U T L O O K
What to Watch Next Quarter With both towers substantially delivered, Q3 is the transition quarter: blended statistics begin normalizing toward the organic base while the $2.11M average newlisting price against a $1.90M average close keeps the ask-to-close gap in view. The pending backlog is thin at $23.3M — forward volume depends on new demand, not pipeline conversion.
DELIVERY TAIL
TOWER RESALE TEST
PIPELINE THINNESS
Q2's 48 developer closings versus Q1's 289 signal the backlog is nearly cleared. Expect averages, DOM, and discount to drift toward resale norms through Q3 and Q4 — normalization, not weakening.
55 resale listings inside 400 Central and Art House are the cleanest price-discovery signal. Early resales cleared near developer pricing with minimal discounting — whether that holds decides the high end.
26 pending contracts ($23.3M) is modest against recent absorption. Q3 closings will lean on new demand; a soft summer would show up quickly in the quarterly count.
Thank you Simon P. Bacon · Executive Director — Developer Services Michael Saunders & Company · Developer Services · St. Petersburg Market Intelligence · Q2 2026
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