Developer Services | Q1 2026 Market Report

Q1 2026 Market Report

SARASOTA CONDOMINIUM MARKET INTELLIGENCE ZIP 34236 · Q1 2025 – Q1 2026 · Data: Sarasota MLS

MSC DEVELOPER SERVICE | SARASOTA MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Downtown Sarasota Buyers Return but Pricing Power Shifts Decisively Q1 2026 delivered 98 closed transactions, a 66% surge from Q4 2025's 59 closings and the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2024. However, this velocity came at a cost: average closed price fell to $1.265M, down 6.4% from Q4 and 20.9% from the Q1 2025 peak of $1.598M. A dramatic increase in listing inventory led to a softening in average pricing and an increase in listing discount, confirming that buyers are extracting real concessions.

KEY TRENDS

•

Pending volume exploded to $350.3M, a 289% increase from Q4 2025's $90.1M, signaling a significant wave of demand re-entering the market at reset price levels.

•

Active inventory climbed to 354 listings ($757.7M total active volume) with months of supply at 16.1, still deep in buyer's market territory despite improving from Q4's 17.3 months

•

Average listing discount widened to 6.2%, and new listing prices averaged $2.2M, creating a $938K gap between ask and close that developers must underwrite honestly.

•

Average days on market improved to 108 from Q4's 122 but remains well above the sub-60-day pace seen in Q1 2025 — aligned with historical norms indicating the market is continuing to normalize.

Outlook: The $350M pending pipeline should convert into a materially stronger Q2 2026 in

Simon P. Bacon

Executive Director

closed volume, but with clearance rate still at 23% and 354 active listings absorbing slowly, pricing discipline and realistic assumptions are essential for any new project penciling in 34236.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Q1 2026 | Key Findings CLOSED TRANSACTIONS

AVG CLOSED PRICE

MONTHS OF SUPPLY

98

$1.3M

16.1

▲ 46.3% YOY · ▲ 66.1% QOQ

▼ 20.9% YOY

Buyer's Market ▼ 7.0%

MEDIAN CLOSED PRICE

VOLUME SIGNED

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

$1.1M

$350.3M

108d

▲ 4.5% YOY

▲ 117% QOQ

▲ 82.9% YOY

Q1 2026 closed 98 transactions at an average price of $1,264,740 — a 15.9% decline from Q1 2025's $1,598,464 and the lowest average since Q3 2024. Buyer activity is accelerating with $350.3M in pending volume, up 117% QOQ, signaling aggressive capital deployment into a market repricing in real time. Active inventory stands at 354 listings totaling $757.7M with 16.1 months of supply.

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KPI SNAPSHOT

Q1 2026 | Rolling Metrics at a Glance CLOSED TRANSACTIONS

MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

LISTING DISCOUNT

NEW LISTINGS

331

$1.1M

102d

6.5%

853

Prior: ▼ 21.0% · YOY: ▼ 23.6%

Prior: ▲ 3.4% · YOY: ▲ 1.5%

Prior: ▲ 25.3% · YOY: ▲ 28.1%

Prior: ▲ 50.1% · YOY: ▲ 34.8%

ACTIVE LISTINGS

ACTIVE INVENTORY VALUE

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

354

$757.7M

16.1

▲ 5.4% vs prior period

▲ 1.7% vs prior period

Buyer's Market ▼ 7.0%

Prior: ▲ 28.7% · YOY: ▲ 10.5%

Rolling metrics reflect trailing 4-quarter data through Q1 2026 · Source: Sarasota MLS

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5-YEAR CONTEXT

Supply vs. Demand | 5-Year Historical

Absorption ratio remains depressed at ~0.23 in Q1 2026, well below 100% equilibrium — confirming persistent oversupply conditions across the full 5-year dataset.

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P R I C E

T R E N D S

Avg & Median Closed Price | Trailing 5 Quarters Price Commentary Avg closed price declined from $1.6M in Q1 2025 to $1.3M in Q1 2026 — a 20.9% YOY compression as larger, higher-priced units clear out of inventory.

Median price showed resilience, rising 4.5% YOY. The divergence between avg and median signals the mix is shifting toward mid-market transactions.

AVG CLOSED

$1.3M

▼ 20.9% YOY

MEDIAN CLOSED

$1.1M

▲ 4.5% YOY

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5 - Y E A R

C O N T E X T

Avg & Median Closed Price | 5-Year Historical

Avg closed price peaked during the COVID run-up and has been compressing since mid-2022. Current levels represent a return to pre-2022 norms — median prices show greater stability than averages.

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TRANSACTION ACTIVITY

Closed Transactions vs. New Listings | Trailing 5 Quarters Q1 2026 Highlights

98

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS

▲ 66.1% vs Q4 2025 (59) ▲ 46.3% vs Q1 2025 (67) Highest since Q2 2024 (110)

240 NEW LISTINGS

▼ 0.4% vs Q1 2025 (241) ▲ 34.1% vs Q4 2025 (179)

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DOLLAR VOLUME

Listed / Signed / Closed Volume | Trailing 5 Quarters

Volume Listed

Volume Signed

Volume Closed

$528.9M ▲ 40.3% QOQ

$350.3M ▲ 288.9% QOQ

$123.9M ▲ 55.5% QOQ 10

MARKET CLEARANCE

Clearance Rate Analysis | Trailing 5 Quarters

Clearance rate remains well below the 85% target — listed volume is not converting to closings at a healthy pace, a structural sign of buyer caution and pricing misalignment.

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MARKET VELOCITY

Days on Market & Listing Discount | Trailing 5 Quarters

Avg DOM: 108d ▲ 82.9% YOY

Listing Discount: 6.2% · Avg DOM: 110d

Both avg DOM (108d) and the 4Q rolling avg exceed the 90-day threshold, signaling

Discount widening from a ~4.8% trailing average confirms buyers extracting

extended sell cycles well above historical norms.

meaningful concessions at close.

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YEAR-OVER-YEAR

Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025 | Quarter Comparison

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MARKET COMMENTARY

Analyst Observations & Outlook 1

2

Closed transactions jumped to 98, up 66.1% from Q4 2025's 59 and 46.3% from Q1 2025's 67 — the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2024's 110.

Inventory remains elevated at 354 active listings and 16.1 months of supply, with $528.9M in new listing volume and average new listing prices at $2,203,644 — creating a 74.3% spread between ask and close that signals further price discovery ahead.

3

Listing discount widened to 6.2% and average DOM held at 108 days, confirming buyers are extracting meaningful concessions before closing.

4

Avg closed price fell to $1.3M, down 20.9% YOY, while the median held at $1.1M (+4.5% YOY) — the compression is concentrated in the upper tier.

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Q2 2026 OUTLOOK

What to Watch Next Quarter With $350M in pending volume already locked and clearance rate still depressed at 0.23, Q2 2026 will test whether this transaction surge represents genuine demand absorption or opportunistic cherry-picking at the top of a 354-unit inventory wall.

PRICING PRESSURE

PENDING CONVERSION

PRICE DISCOVERY

Developers pricing new product above

The $350.3M in signed volume must convert

The 74.3% spread between avg listing price

$2M/unit should expect extended sell-

to closings in Q2 to confirm genuine demand

($2.2M) and avg close ($1.3M) indicates

through timelines of 14–18 months given the

— failure to close would signal opportunistic

significant negotiation still occurring. Expect

current 16.1-month supply overhang.

rather than structural recovery.

continued listing discounts of 6–8%.

MICHAEL SAUNDERS & COMPANY

·

DEVELOPER SERVICES

·

SARASOTA MARKET INTELLIGENCE

·

ZIP 34236

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