BLUEPRINT
EAST B AY
A L O C A L N E W S L ET T E R
Now that it’s March we can of cially let go of the “new year, new me” mantra and enjoy eating out again : ) Here are some of highlights from the last month. CENADURIA ELVIRA- OAKLAND The New York Times named their tostada one of the best dishes of the year back in ’23. Now this hidden gem, backyard hot-spot has its own home in Jack London Square. Serving crispy tacos, tostadas & more, and specializing in all things Jalisco, Cenaduria Elvira needs to go on your list. 11-9PM WedMon. 468 3rd St, Oakland
CAFE BOLITA - BERKELEY
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While the 24 seat interior dining space is still being nalized, Cafe Bolita has of cially launched their soft opening via a to-go window in West Berkeley. With a deep focus on nixtamilzed heirloom corn as the base for a masa forward menu, Cafe Bolita has already begun drawing crowds. The menu (for now) features heirloom blue corn quesadillas, braised-chard tamal and a veggie forward frittata. They also serve coffee out of the to-go window, too. The menu and hours are set to expand as the interior remodel is completed later this month. 2701 Eighth St #118, Berkeley
e East Bay Bubble ( IT ’ S NO T TH E ON E YOU ’ R E T H INK ING OF )
“How’s the market?” You would think this is the one question that every real estate agent in the country would love being asked but honestly, we fumble this one just about every single time. Despite getting this question every single day we fumble this one every time. It would be so much easier if we were asked, “How many new homes came on the market last week in Thousand Oaks?” or “What’s the average home price in Elmwood?” or “How many o ers did they receive on that amazing house on Terrace Drive?” (9 o ers BTW!). The question is di cult to answer because the East Bay market can mean di erent things depending on which side of the table you’re sitting; buyer or seller. Inside the real estate world many would point to the absorption rate to answer the question, “How’s the market?”. Absorption rate is one of those real estate terms that sounds technical but it’s actually quite simple. It measures how quickly homes are selling relative to how many are available. Imagine that 100 homes are on the market and 80 of them go into contract within a month, that would represent an 80% absorption rate. A high absorption rate means buyers are quickly “absorbing” the available homes, while a low absorption rate suggests that inventory is sitting longer and buyers have more negotiating leverage. In plain terms, it tells us how competitive a housing market is and for many, that would be a great way to answer the question. Nationally, the absorption rate is an important gauge of market health because it re ects the balance between supply and demand. Economists often describe a balanced housing market as having about six months of available inventory. That roughly translates to a monthly absorption rate of about 16–17%. When absorption drops into the 10–15% range, inventory tends to accumulate and buyers gain leverage. When it rises above 20–25%, demand begins to outpace supply and competition increases. In many large U.S. metros today, places like Miami (11%), Austin (13%), and New York City (15%), inventory levels have climbed substantially in recent years, pushing absorption rates into more of a buyer’s market. (continued)
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Hot Spots
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A B SOR P TIO N R AT E S El Cerrito
Albany
Berkeley
Piedmont
Oakland
100 %
75 %
50 %
25 %
S E L L E R ’ S M A R K ET B U Y E R ’ S M A R K ET
0
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
'17
'19
'21
'23
'25
(5.9%)
(6.4%)
(5.2%)
(4.5%)
(4%)
(3.9%)
(4%)
(4%)
(3%)
(7%)
(6.4%)
AVERAGE MORTGAGE RATE Where things become particularly interesting is when we compare those markets (and many others) with what has been happening here in the Inner East Bay. In communities like Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Albany, and El Cerrito, the absorption rates since 2005 have remained remarkably high, almost exclusively above above 75% and often reaching into the high-80% or even low-90% range. In practical terms, that means the majority of available homes are typically absorbed by buyers within a single month. By national standards, that level of sustained demand is extremely unusual. What makes this even more compelling is how consistent the data has been through very di erent economic environments. The above chart goes back to 2005. During this time we’ve experienced the Great Recession of ’07-‘09, a decade of rising home values, the pandemic-era buying frenzy fueled by ultra-low mortgage rates, and more recently a period of signi cantly higher interest rates that more than doubled within a few months. In many parts of the country, these shifts produced dramatic swings in demand. Yet the absorption rate across the Inner East Bay has remained persistently strong throughout each of these cycles. The environment changed, but the underlying demand for homes in these communities did not.
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This helps explain why national headlines about the housing market don’t usually translate locally. In markets where inventory can expand quickly, often through large-scale new construction (Austin, for example), absorption rates can fall sharply when demand softens. But the Inner East Bay operates within a much
tighter supply framework. Development is incredibly limited, most neighborhoods are fully built out, and the combination of proximity to San Francisco, established communities, and highly desirable neighborhoods keeps demand consistently strong even when we experience global nancial & health and when borrowing costs increase. For buyers and sellers alike, the absorption rate can o er an important lens through which to view the market but not here in the East Bay. Nationally, it can help economists understand whether the housing market is heating up or cooling down but locally, however, the long-term pattern tells a di erent story. The Inner East Bay has consistently behaved less like a cyclical oversupplied market and much more like a supply-constrained one. When most of the available homes are absorbed in just a few weeks, even during periods of economic uncertainty, it underscores just how durable the demand for housing in this part of the Bay Area has proven to be. The East Bay and Bay Area, at large, are often referred to as a “bubble” in comparison to the rest of the country. This can apply to weather, politics, and housing. It’s also another reason to stay grounded when digesting national news, especially about the housing market and what it is (or isn’t doing). 9 times out of 10 what is happening nationwide is not what we are experience locally. The high absorption rate combined with the longstanding tradition of houses being intentionally listed well below market value make for a one-of-a-kind real estate experience.
MARCH 2 0 26
DAY TRIP
WEEKNIGHT PORCHETTA When we think of porchetta we often associate it with the holidays. The multi-day preparation that goes into air drying the meat takes time but pays off incredibly well for those decadent holiday meals. This version is big on avor and small on time (perfect for the busy weeknights!).
A’s GAME VIA AMTRAK
With warmer weather on the horizon we’re excited for one of our favorite day trips: taking the Amtrak train up to Sacramento to watch an A’s game and experience Old Town Sacramento.
Ingredients •
4 garlic cloves, nely chopped; plus 2 heads halved crosswise
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1 tbsp coarsely chopped fresh rosemary, plus 4 sprigs
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1 tbsp fennel seeds, coarsely chopped
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1 1/2 tsp kosher salt
Once you arrive you’re just a short walk away from Old Town Sacramento, a step back in time into the historic riverfront district. With over 125 shops, storefronts, bars & restaurants there is no shortage of food/entertainment.
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Freshly ground cracked pepper
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2 tbsp extra virgin olive oil (divided)
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1.5 lb pork tenderloin
From there it’s a 10 min. walk to Sutter Health Park, the home of the A’s. At just over 10,000 seats it’s MUCH more intimate than any other major league ballpark and the action is right in front of you. Spoiler alert: Sacramento gets HOT so we recommend a trip in April to avoid the triple digit heat. And after a fun lled day in the sun, what could be better than relaxing on a train headed home rather than sitting in stadium tra c?!
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4 slices of bacon (get the good stuff)
You can catch the Amtrak train at Emeryville, Berkeley or Richmond and it’s a smooth, beautifully peaceful 1.5 hour ride into Sacramento. We highly recommend taking advantage of the observation car to soak up the scenery as you meander along the Bay, through towns like Martinez, Fair eld & Davis before arriving in Sacramento.
Don’t wait on this one, in 2028 the A’s will leave Sacramento and head to Las Vegas : (
Steps 1. Preheat oven to 425°. Toss chopped garlic, chopped rosemary, fennel seeds, salt, and 1 tablespoon of oil in a small bowl. Season with pepper. 2. Rub garlic mixture all over tenderloin (even better if you can do this in the morning and refrigerate until dinner). Scatter rosemary sprigs in a large baking dish and set tenderloin on top. Wrap bacon slices around tenderloin, tucking ends underneath so bacon stay put. Nestle halved heads of garlic around tenderloin and drizzle everything with remaining tablespoon of olive oil.
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3. Roast until an instant-read thermometer inserted into thickest part of tenderloin registers 140° (for medium), which is about 40-45 minutes. Transfer to cutting board and let rest. Temperature will rise to about 145°.
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Upcoming Events 3/6 RICHMOND’S FRIDAY NIGHTS OUT This has become a staple in our rotation of events. Held at Windchaser Wines near the water, this monthly event always features live Music, cocktails from Factory Bar, oysters & burgers from Rocky Island Oysters, and wines (actually good wines!) from Windchaser. There is also a rotating slew of artisans and food vendors and bonus points awarded for epic sunsets, too! 4-8PM, 1352 S. 49th St, Richmond. Free!
3/7 GRANNYCON Whether you’re a granny or grampa this joyous fundraiser aims to celebrate the women we all love AND help to fight breast cancer. The main event is a bingo style scavenger hunt on Park Street (Alameda) and dozens of local merchants will be participating before, during, and after. 2:30-6PM Park Street, Alameda Tickets available at Grannycon.com
3/17 ST. PATRICK’S DAY AT THE STARRY PLOUGH It’s that time of year again. Time to wear your tackiest green clothing, raise a pint or six, and dance along to authentic Irish music. Few places in the East Bay celebrate St. Patrick’s Day better than The Starry Plough. The music and festivities start early and go all day long. This is also a ticketed event so you’ll be doing yourself a favor by getting tickets ahead of time at starryplough.com. 3101 Shattuck Ave, Berkeley
EDITOR’S PICK Usually we stay hyper local with our events but this one was just too good to pass up. Take a drive up the Mendocino Coast and spend the day celebrating the Leviathans of the Paci c.
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Guided Whale Walks & Whale Watching
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Beer Fest & Live Music
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Wine Walk & Chowder Competition
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5k/10k Run or Walk along the coast
More information at www.visitfortbragg.com
SALLAT PER RY
BLUEPRINT
G RO UP
DELIVER TO: Estel a Sall at
Mi ch ael Per r y
DRE#0205411
DRE#02193642
510.944.3001
510.641.6543
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801 Delaware St, Berkeley, CA 94710
EAST BAY