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Last year Mexico’s energy reform moved from political announcement to legal text. Now, industry players are finding out what regulations allow and what is still pending to be defined. The Electricity Sector Law, signed in March 2025, settled a question that had paralyzed investment decisions for half a decade: does private capital have a place in Mexico’s electricity system? The answer is yes. The framework is real, the planning targets are binding, and the government has shown willingness to engage at the technical level, something that was largely absent in the previous administration. The question now is whether the model being assembled can move fast enough. Mexico’s electricity demand is growing at a pace the grid was not designed to serve. Data centers are concentrating in Queretaro faster than substations can be built. Nearshoring manufacturers are arriving in Nuevo Leon and the Bajio only to find that their energy supply timeline is measured in years, not months. Battery storage finally has its own regulatory identity after a March 2026 framework gave it legal standing but bankability gaps, equipment lead times, and operational rules are still being resolved. Solar has 16GW installed and a target of 31GW by 2031, but the corporate PPA market is under structural pressure from buyers demanding guarantees that intermittent generation alone cannot provide. Meanwhile, the USMCA review, which opened its first bilateral round just days before the Forum, adds a layer of geopolitical complexity to every cross-border energy investment decision in the country. It is in this context of genuine progress and equally genuine urgency that industry leaders gathered at Mexico Energy Forum 2026. The conversations that followed were not about whether Mexico’s energy transformation is underway. They were about the gap between the framework and the market, between the planning documents and the executed projects, between the regulatory signal and the bankable transaction. Bridging that gap, as speakers across every panel made clear, is not a technical problem or a legal problem alone. It is a question of institutional velocity, commercial creativity, and the willingness of public and private actors to close deals in conditions of imperfect certainty rather than wait for a clarity that may never fully arrive.
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C o nfe r ence I mpact
153
companies
243
conference participants
5
34
sponsors
speakers
8,671
17th
visits to the conference website
Edition
Breakdown by job title
35.4% Manager / Senior / Head 25.1% VP / Director / Partner 21.4% Analyst / Executive / Advisor 18.1% President / CEO / Country Manager / Director General
Conference social media impact
Pre-conference social media impact
2,958 direct impressions during MEF
53,779 direct pre-conference LinkedIn impressions
7.1% click through rate during MEF
4.3% pre-conference click through rate
8.5% conference engagement rate
5.8% pre-conference engagement rate
Matchmaking Mexico’s leading B2B conference organizer uses a customized app to deliver an unparalleled experience The MBE App delivered AI-powered intent-based matchmaking to Mexico Energy Forum 2026 attendees
MBE App Impact
Matchmaking intentions
183
participants
1,025
matchmaking communications
97
1:1 meetings conducted
682 Trading Total
1,143
461 Networking
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C o mpany Attendance •
A3E Ingenieros
•
Consejo Mexicano de Energía
•
AB ENERGY MEXICO
•
Consultoría Sustentable G2H
•
AECOM México
•
Control Union
•
AEI Hidrocarburos
•
CONUEE
•
AEROPUERTO INTERNACIONAL FELIPE ÁNGELES
•
Coppel
•
AES
•
COSTCO
•
Aggreko
•
Cox México
•
AINDA Energía e infraestructura
•
Cubico Sustainable Investments
•
ALAPSI
•
Data IQ
•
Alcione Sonepar
•
Deacero
•
Alliance
•
DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING MEXICO
•
Aloi
•
DISRUPTIVE SINERGIES
•
Alvarez & Marsal
•
DNV
•
AMGNV
•
DowJones
•
Aosenuma
•
DVL Film House
•
ARENDAL
•
Electriz
•
Asociación de Empresas de Eficiencia Energética
•
Elevation Ideas
•
Asociación de Negocios e Industria Verde
•
EMA
•
Asociación Mexicana de Data Centers - MEXDC
•
Energia Infra
•
Asociación Mexicana de Hidrógeno y Transición Energética (H2México)
•
Energia Real
•
ENERGY BY 5
•
ASOLMEX
•
Energymaster
•
Atera
•
Énestas
•
Atlas Renewable Energy
•
ENGIE Mexico
•
Autodesk
•
EQUINIX
•
Banco Inbursa
•
Evonik
•
Banco Multiva
•
EVRY
•
Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext)
•
Finsolar
•
BBVA Mexico
•
Fresh Energy Consulting
•
BCYSA
•
Fuentes de Energía Peñoles S.A. De C.V.
•
Becerril, Coca & Becerril
•
Galicia Abogados
•
BID Energy
•
GP & H
•
Blacktogreen Consulting
•
Grid Automation Market Manager
•
BOS POWER LLC
•
Grupo Cinemex
•
bp
•
Grupo GTC
•
BTG Pactual
•
GRUPO ICONN
•
Bureau Veritas
•
Grupo México
•
Business France
•
Grupo Peñoles
•
Calibraciones profesionales
•
Heidrick & Struggles
•
Caliza
•
Hilti
•
CALPRO
•
Hitachi Energy
•
Cámara Verde
•
HOSTDIME
•
CAMEXA | German-Mexican Chamber of Industry and Commerce
•
IGSA
•
International SOS
•
CanCham México
•
INVEX Promoción de Inversiones
•
Catenon
•
iPS Powerful People
•
Cloud HQ
•
ITAM
•
CNBiogás
•
JWA
•
CNE
•
KDM Fires Systems
•
Cogenera México
•
Keymex Energy
•
COMENER
•
Kiin Energy
•
Comercial City Fresko SRL de CV
•
KPMG Mexico
6
C o mpany Attendance •
Kualion
•
Roxtec MX & Latam
•
La Comer
•
S&E Technology S.A de C.V
•
Latin American Green Chamber
•
SAMSON Company
•
LUXEM ENERGÍA
•
SICENRGY
•
MADISA
•
Sigma Foods
•
Mastercard
•
Simplificado Punto
•
METAL ONE DE MEXICO
•
Sing, ODATA
•
METRON
•
SMART IoT
•
MEXDC
•
Smurfitwestrock
•
Ministry of Economy
•
Solarfuel
•
MWM
•
Solensa
•
Nader, Hayaux & Goebel
•
Spencer Stuart
•
Natural Resources Defense Council
•
Speyside Group
•
NEG Natural
•
Square Energy
•
Netherlands Embassy
•
SUJIO
•
Nextpower
•
SUMMA INTERMEDIARIO DE REASEGURO
•
OCA GLOBAL
•
Tecnohargrove
•
ODATA
•
Terranova
•
OMERCIAL CITY FRESKO
•
The Solomon Brokerage Firm
•
Orbia Advance Corporation
•
Trio Advisory
•
Pandener
•
Tuto Power
•
Polímeros y Derivados
•
Vemo
•
PQ Barcon
•
Veolia
•
Prima
•
Vestas
•
Quartux
•
WALBRIDGE DE MEXICO
•
REGULUS 333
•
WTW
7
P r o g r am
W E D N E S D AY, J U N E 3 09:20
THE USMCA REVIEW: ENERGY TRADE & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Moderator: Guillermo García Alcocer, Former Chairman of the Federal Regulatory Commission and Professor at ITAM Panelists: Carlos de Maria y Campos, Galicia Abogados José Eduardo Robledo, Tuto Power 10:15
PUBLIC & PRIVATE COLLABORATION 2.0
Moderator: Nelson Delgado, ASOLMEX Panelists: Alfonso Campos, Cox Alejandra Espinosa, ENGIE Mexico Gleb Kouznetsov, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext) Santiago Villagomez, Energia Real 12:00
POWERING THE MANUFACTURING AND DATA CENTER BOOM
Moderator: Arturo Bravo, Mexican Association of Data Centers MEXDC Panelists: Jakub Holecek, Aggreko Luis Lugo, Cloud HQ Héctor Sánchez, EQUINIX 12:40
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY, STORAGE, SECURITY AND INVESTMENT
Moderator: David Madero, Simplificado punto Panelists: Juan Paulo Cervantes, Solensa Diego Pecoraro, Alvarez & Marsal Jorge Sandoval, AMGN Guadalupe Paredes, LUXEM ENERGÍA 13:20
BEYOND SOLAR—THE BESS REVOLUTION
Moderator: Andrea Lozano, BID Energy Panelists: Juan Acra, Consejo Mexicano de Energía Raul Gutiérrez, Hitachi Energy Humberto García, Kiin Energy Casiopea Ramírez, Fresh Energy Consulting 15:00
ESG IN ENERGY: ACHIEVING DECARBONIZATION THROUGH GOOD PRACTICES
Moderator: Israel Hurtado, H2México Panelists: Eugenio Grandio, EMA José Pablo Rinkenback, AINDA Daniel Salazar, COGENERA México Selene González, bp Javier García, CONUEE 16:00
WHAT IS THE NEXT FRONTIER IN SOLAR?
Moderator: Lilia Alonzo, Aurea Partners Panelists: Daniel García, Atlas Renewable Energy Javier Salinas, Nextpower Alejandro Fajer, Quartux Ian de la Garza, Finsolar Luis Felipe Vélez, Atera Energy Check the panel/presentation’s highlights on mexicobusiness.mx clicking on the icon
8
THE USMCA REVIEW: ENERGY TRADE & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
The United States and Mexico launched the
legal tensions materialize. At the core of
first formal bilateral negotiating round of
these disputes is the question of whether
the USMCA Joint Review on May 27, with
regulatory changes that favor state-owned
sessions running through May 29 at Mexico’s
enterprises or alter market conditions are
Ministry of Economy in Mexico City. The
compatible with USMCA obligations on
first round focused on economic security
non-discrimination, fair competition, and
and rules of origin for key industrial goods.
investment protection.
A second round is scheduled for June 16 and 17 in Washington DC., which will also
The United States and Mexico have formally
include discussions on agriculture and a
launched the review and started technical
level playing field. Energy, the most legally
rounds to narrow key issues ahead of the
complex and politically sensitive chapter, has
treaty’s July 1, 2026 decision point. At
not yet reached formal text-level discussion,
the same time, the Trump administration
which means the industry is operating in a
continues to rely on sector-by-sector
window where the framework is being set
pressure, including tariffs, threats, and
but the energy-specific outcomes are still
partial understandings, as leverage to extract
genuinely open.
concessions. Mexico is seeking an early deal in high-impact sectors, steel, aluminum, and
The scale of what that window represents is
autos, before the formal review reaches
not abstract. “The energy association projects
its most sensitive phase, aiming to protect
1.2GW of new demand by 2030 driven by
regional supply chains and avoid further
data centers alone, on top of combined
erosion of investment confidence.
cycle and thermal installations that each take one to five years to build. The infrastructure
“The decisions being made today in
clock is already running, and the regulatory
Mexico’s energy sector do not exist in a
framework has to move at the same pace
vacuum, they are being shaped by what is
or the opportunity walks out the door,” said
coming in the USMCA review. The fact that
Guillermo García, Former Chairman, CRE, and
certain structures are being maintained and
Professor, ITAM.
protected tells you everything about how seriously the government is reading the
Consultations initiated by the United States
trade pressure it faces,” said José Eduardo
and Canada in 2022, concerning measures
Robledo, Commercial Director, Tuto Power.
affecting the participation of private and foreign companies in Mexico’s electricity
Three scenarios now appear most realistic.
and hydrocarbons sectors, illustrate how
The base case is a significant extension,
9
with negotiations stretching into late 2026
Even in the absence of broad investor-state
or beyond, concentrated in autos, energy,
dispute settlement access, state-to-state
China-related disciplines, and enforcement
dispute settlement remains available and has
architecture. A second path is serial annual
already been activated in relation to Mexico’s
reviews: with no deal reached in 2026, the
energy policies. The United States and
agreement enters yearly renewal cycles.
Canada opened formal USMCA consultations
USMCA stays in force but under a cloud
on Mexico’s energy policies in 2022, a process
of sustained uncertainty that discourages
that has been running in parallel with the
long-term investment. A third, less likely
current review. Those consultations have
scenario involves a breakdown of the trilateral
not been resolved. They are now folded into
architecture into bilateral arrangements.
the broader renegotiation, which means the energy chapter arrives at the table already pre-loaded with active legal disputes.
“The energy association projects 1.2GW of new demand by 2030 driven by data centers
US Trade Representative Greer stated:
alone, on top of combined cycle and thermal
“There are areas where Mexico is supposed
installations that each take one to five
to be complying with the USMCA where
years to build. The infrastructure clock
t h ey a re n o t . Th i s co u l d b e e n e rg y,
is already running, and the regulatory
telecommunications, agriculture, all kinds of
framework has to move at the same pace
things.” He confirmed his office is in active
or the opportunity walks out the door”
talks with Mexican officials about how Mexico
Guillermo García Former Chairman, CRE | Professor, ITAM
can come into better compliance. The explicit naming of energy as a non-compliance concern, by the USTR, on the record, is the sharpest signal the United States has sent about its intentions in this negotiation.
“If we reach a reality where the treaty is up
The legal complexity of that conversation
for revision every single year, that is a failure
is compounded by the diplomatic baggage
we cannot afford. We have to do everything
surrounding it. “What is coming is an
possible to avoid arriving at that scenario,”
extraordinarily complex negotiation, far
warned Carlos de Maria y Campos, Partner,
more difficult than it appears on the surface.
Galicia Abogados.
The USMCA review will not be handled in isolation. Every day we see new elements
The Energy Chapter: Legal Battle in Progress
complicating the US-Mexico relationship: dispute mechanisms, migration, the judicial reform inside the treaty and outside it,
Energy sits at the intersection of Mexico’s
narcoterrorism designations, extradition
sovereignty agenda and its trade
requests, and security cooperation. The first
commitments in a way that no other sector
expropriation hit a North American asset. The
does. The constitutional reform of October
first PPP that was terminated was American.
2024 and the LESE of March 2025, which
You sit down at the USMCA table with a
mandate 54% CFE participation in mixed
sector that is already stained, and the cherry
energy investment projects, restructure
on top is that you just expropriated someone.
dispatch priority in favor of state generation,
There is dialogue, but it comes at a very high
and eliminate the clean energy certificate
cost,” said Maria y Campos.
framework, represent the most significant restructuring of Mexico’s energy market since
The investor-state dispute settlement
the 2013 reform. They are also the most direct
mechanism is not an abstract legal concept
challenge to the treaty provisions that US and
for energy companies in Mexico; it is the
Canadian energy investors relied upon when
instrument through which billions of dollars in
they committed capital to Mexico.
capital were committed under the assumption
10
that regulatory changes affecting project
has active legal grievances, documented
economics would have legal consequences.
commercial damages, and an administration
The narrowing of ISDS access in USMCA
willing to use trade tools aggressively.
relative to NAFTA’s Chapter 11 was already a significant step back. The active disputes
F o r e n e r g y i n ve s t o r s w a t c h i n g t h e
arising from Mexico’s energy policy reversals
negotiation, the question is not whether
have tested what protection remains.
the treaty will survive, as most analysts expect some form of extension, but what
“Ongoing dispute processes will continue
the investor protection architecture looks
regardless of what new rules are introduced,
like when it does, and whether the new
the controversy mechanisms are too
framework provides enough legal certainty
standardized, too embedded in our shared
to underwrite the next generation of cross-
frameworks to be fundamentally altered.
border energy infrastructure.
That is actually a source of stability for active investors,” added Maria y Campos.
The Nearshoring Stake The energy chapter of the USMCA review is not only a bilateral legal dispute. It is a determinant of Mexico’s competitiveness as a manufacturing and industrial destination for the next decade. The companies relocating supply chains from Asia to Mexico, in automotive, electronics, aerospace, medical devices, are making 15-to-20year commitments that depend on energy being available, reliable, clean enough to satisfy corporate ESG mandates, and priced competitively against alternative locations. Fitch Ratings describes an environment of serial annual reviews as one with “low certainty,” which could weaken the
To prevent USMCA’s expiration in 2036,
momentum of nearshoring investment. That
parties must submit notifications approving
assessment is conservative. For a company
renewal for another 16 years. The Trump
deciding between a Monterrey facility and
administration will likely withhold US renewal
one in Central Europe or Southeast Asia, the
approval to compel a partial renegotiation
difference between a stable 16-year USMCA
of certain commitments through the joint
extension and an annual renegotiation cycle
review. That leverage is most concentrated in
is not a marginal factor in the investment
the energy chapter, where the United States
case; it is close to determinative.
PUBLIC & PRIVATE COLLABORATION 2.0 The 2025 energy reform gave the private
The LESE includes more options for private
sector six ways to participate in Mexico’s
participants than its predecessor, including
electricity system. The fine print on mixed
long-term production contracts for exclusive
investment structures, distributed generation
sale to CFE and a mixed investment structure
thresholds, and the regulatory gaps, however,
that allows joint ownership of development
is still being defined. The October 2024
projects with CFE.
constitutional reform and the March 2025 LESE reform settled matters with more
“Until a few years ago, there was a genuine
clarity than the industry has had in years.
doubt as to whether there would be private
11
“Transmission development is a long-term
for the wholesale electricity market. Exempt
process, but Mexico needs short-term
plants may now have up to 0.7MW without
solutions as well. Creating clearer market
a CNE permit and may sell their surplus to a
signals for energy services and battery
qualified supplier.
storage could help strengthen grid reliability while attracting private investment”
Gleb Kouznetsov Energy Finance Director | Bancomext
The increase in the distributed generation threshold from the previous limit to 0.7MW is one of the most commercially significant regulatory changes for the industrial and commercial sector, expanding the universe of installations that can operate without
participation, or if there would be outright
a CNE generation permit while retaining
opposition to it in the sector,” noted Nelson
the right to sell surplus energy. Distributed
Delgado, Director General, ASOLMEX. “That
generation closed 2025 at around 5 to
is no longer the question; the question now
5.5GW, with projections indicating continued
is about the gradual pace, the conditions,
growth in 2026 driven by firm energy targets
and the terms. We came from a model of
and mandatory decarbonization goals.
open and non-discriminatory access to the
However, operational rollouts are facing
grid, and we have transitioned to a model
systemic administrative delays. Villagomez
focused on the non-prevalence of private
pointed out that while the 0.7MW rule is
entities over the state, binding planning, and
clear on paper, CFE has yet to issue the
so forth. We are now seeing the first practical
actual interconnection formats to liberate
steps regarding the implementation of this
these projects.
new energy model for Mexico.” Under the self-consumption modality, projects CFE has committed to investing US$23.4
can be either isolated or grid-interconnected.
billion between 2024 and 2030, focused on
Isolated projects with capacity of up to
generation, transmission, and distribution
20MW are exempt from the energy sector’s
projects. That figure represents the public
social impact assessment requirement. That
anchor of the investment program. However,
exemption is significant: the social impact
the scale of investment will depend on how
assessment process has been one of the
quickly the regulatory architecture around the
most unpredictable variables in renewable
available participation modalities becomes
project development timelines, and removing
operational. Industry experts view this
it for smaller self-consumption installations
baseline as an essential acknowledgement
reduces one layer of execution risk.
of reality. “LESE is a signal of a recognition that things need to be done differently. The
Under long-term production contracts,
frameworks are there, and there is a clear
p owe r p l a n t s fi n a n c e d w i t h p r i va t e
priority and urgency for things to happen,
investment will supply energy exclusively to
which is positive. This is a shift we must
CFE, with no right to commercialize surplus
leverage to transform our infrastructure,”
with third parties. Mixed investment projects
noted Santiago Villagomez, CEO and
require private investors to be Mexican
Founder, Energía Real.
individuals, legal entities, or trusts domiciled in Mexico, with a maximum project duration
What the New Framework Actually Allows
of 30 years. The nationality requirement for mixed investment participants is a structural constraint that international
The new LESE establishes that generation
developers will need to navigate through
can be carried out by the state, by private
Mexican partnerships, joint ventures, or
parties, or through mixed investments,
trust structures, this time adding a layer of
distinguishing three modalities: distributed
corporate architecture that was not required
generation, self-consumption, and generation
under the prior framework.
12
PLADESE as Investment Beacon
financiers can use to size their pipelines and structure their financial models.
The Planning and Energy Transition Law introduces the Electricity Sector Development
SENER and CFE’s integrated projections
Plan (PLADESE) with a 15-year planning
anticipate a sustained increase in electricity
horizon. It also preserves the Clean Energy
demand over the coming years, which is why
Certificates mechanism and instructs SENER
CFE has announced significant investments
to publish strategies and programs within
in transmission, substations, and grid
the first year of each administration. “The
modernization. During 2024 and 2025, pilot
binding nature of PLADESE may sound like
microgrid projects in industrial parks multiplied,
a restriction, but it provides explicit clarity on
combining photovoltaic generation, storage,
where to advance. This openness to dialogue,
and advanced energy management systems.
even if some label it unilateral, is about finding
These solutions reduce interruptions, optimize
the ‘how-to’,” stated Alejandra Espinosa, Head
costs, and improve operational continuity, a
of Market Intelligence, ENGIE Mexico.
critical factor for nearshoring-linked sectors.
However, Espinosa highlighted a critical
The Gaps That Remain
upstream-downstream disconnect that corporate decision-makers face. “The challenge
Private companies face difficulties due to
is not only speed. Timing gaps can create
commercialization restrictions. They are
uncertainty for investment committees, making
limited in their capacity to offer basic supply,
it harder to approve projects. Strengthening
which directly impacts their business model.
dialogue can help turn stalled projects into
CFE’s exclusivity in this segment restricts
bankable opportunities. Right now, closing
opportunities for independent suppliers.
the loop on integrating supply while anchoring
Legislation also addresses distributed
it with an upstream PPA remains the most
generation and self-consumption: private
challenging part. Many of these realities
parties are authorized to generate their own
are simply not computing during corporate
electricity, but under strict rules. Surpluses
decision-making talks,” she stated
can only be sold to CFE, which reduces competitiveness and flexibility for private
PLADESE’s capacity addition targets are
generators in the market.
the clearest investment signal the Mexican electricity sector has produced in years. The
Gleb Kouznetsov, Energy Finance Director,
7.5GW mixed development framework, the
Bancomext, noted that while Mexico’s previous
associated tenders published by SENER and
regulatory setup was detailed, it had ceased
CFE, and PLADESE’s projection that peak
to serve the market six years ago. The current
demand will grow 50.6% by 2039 establish a
shift represents a viable change in trajectory,
planning context that private developers and
backed by highly capable personnel within the
13
regulatory bodies. However, from a project
concrete mechanisms are missing. “Another
finance perspective, bankability concerns
critical issue is clean energy traceability. It is
persist regarding the “Doomsday scenarios”
not currently being discussed in negotiations,
routinely evaluated by investment committees.
but for the end-user, it is paramount. Without clear traceability, corporate clients cannot
Kouznetsov outlined three critical structural
extract economic or ESG value from this
gaps causing uncertainty for lenders under
energy,” she added.
the new mixed investment schemes. First, the current guidelines fail to provide or foresee
The mixed investment structure, which
the mechanics of direct agreements, a
requires at least 54% state participation
departure from past market frameworks that
and restricts investors to Mexican legal
explicitly outlined lender step-in and credit
entities, has attracted the most scrutiny from
rights. This omission leaves banks without
international capital. The contractual terms
explicit legal clarity regarding their rights
governing cost sharing, return distribution,
over the physical asset or the transition of
d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g a u t h o r i t y, a n d ex i t
control if a project derails. Second, significant
mechanisms have not been fully published in
legal loopholes remain regarding contract
implementable form, leaving project finance
breaches, making it entirely unclear if
teams unable to complete the financial
financing banks retain the right to preserve
modeling that investment committees require
PPAs. Instead, the framework appears to
before committing capital.
grant CFE the exclusive power to select new vendors and sponsors during a restructuring
The reform has promoted a mixed investment
process, compromising traditional lender
scheme where CFE must hold a majority
protections. Third, the continuity of essential
stake in new projects. This implies that
generation and regulatory permits remains
private investors must adapt their strategies
vulnerable; under the current wording, these
to align with this requirement, which
authorizations risk reverting to CFE rather
could influence economic viability. For
than remaining tied to the asset’s equity or
infrastructure funds and development finance
being accessible to creditors.
institutions evaluating Mexico alongside other markets like Chile, Colombia, and Brazil,
Beyond these public-private joint ventures,
the mixed investment structure introduces a
Kouznetsov added that purely private
governance layer that peers do not require,
projects face their own steep commercial
and which needs to be priced into the return
h u r d l e s . U n l i ke t h e p a s t l a n d s c a p e
expectations on every transaction.
dominated by investment-grade Triple-B offtakers, financiers are navigating entirely
The integration of battery storage systems
new private supplier convocations where
(BESS) into the new framework is another
the first stones have not been laid, largely
area where the regulation has established
due to these protracted PPA negotiations
d i re c t i o n w i t h o u t f u l l y d e fi n i n g t h e
and a lack of precedent. “Transmission
implementation. The five BESS participation
development is a long-term process, but
modalities published in April 2026 create the
Mexico needs short-term solutions as well.
legal basis for storage investment, but the
Creating clearer market signals for energy
operational rules, dispatch instructions, and
services and battery storage could help
revenue recognition standards that financiers
strengthen grid reliability while attracting
need are still being developed alongside the
private investment,” Kouznetsov noted.
permitting framework.
Furthermore, the lack of market mechanisms
From Theory to Practice
for green attributes threatens corporate sustainability goals. Espinosa noted that the
The history of Mexico’s energy market
industry understands that power balance
since 2013 is a history of frameworks that
market adjustments are underway, but
were coherent on paper and incomplete in
14
execution. The 2013 reform opened a market
To successfully navigate these tighter
that functioned for several years before policy
timelines, the industry must look across the
reversal disrupted it. The 2025 reform has
complete development horizon. “We are in
learned from that experience in some ways,
a year of consolidation. The conversation
through the binding planning framework, the
cannot stop at generation; we must integrate
CFE majority requirement, and PLADESE as
the entire value chain and ensure energy
a public commitment, but has introduced its
reaches the end customer,” said Alfonso
own execution risks.
Campos, Commercial Director, COX Energy America. This requires integrated alignment
The most significant is the timeline. The tenders
from the initial generation right down to
SENER has published target construction
delivery. Qualified suppliers face an immediate
i n N ove m b e r 2 0 2 6 a n d co m m e rc i a l
operational push to effectively translate these
operation between 2028 and 2029. That
new market structures and wheel energy
is a compressed schedule for projects
directly to the commercial consumer.
that require social impact assessments, interconnection studies, permits, financing
The private sector participants who will
structures, and the resolution of contractual
navigate this successfully are those who treat
terms that are still being defined. Projects
the regulatory gaps not as obstacles but as
for the wholesale electricity market must,
the negotiating space where the durable
prior to construction, complete a social
terms of Mexico’s new energy market will
impact assessment, interconnection studies,
actually be set, and those who engage with
and permits. Each of those steps has its own
SENER, CFE, and Bancomext at the technical
regulatory calendar, and delays in any one of
level before tender terms are finalized rather
them compound downstream.
than after.
POWERING THE MANUFACTURING AND DATA CENTER BOOM The Mexican Association of Data Centers
of energy and the capacity of the existing
(MEXDC) reported that national operational
transmission infrastructure,” said Sánchez
capacity reached 279MW in April 2026. This
during Mexico Energy Forum 2026. He noted
exponential growth continues to outpace the
that rising capital expenditures are driven by
transmission capacity of the national electric
mandatory investments in private substations
grid, forcing private enterprise to finance
and on-site generation systems.
independent energy infrastructure. Private infrastructure development has become
The structural deficit stems from an
mandatory for market participants seeking
accelerating nearshoring cycle. Foreign direct
to maintain strict up-time agreements. Héctor
investment into Mexico exceeded US$36
Sánchez, Director, IBX Operations, Equinix,
billion in 2023, driven by manufacturing
says that historical approaches to digital real
relocations and facility expansions seeking
estate development are no longer viable.
proximity to the US market. However, the Bajio corridor, Nuevo Leon, and northern
“The first thing that developers must evaluate
border states absorb industrial demand at a
before purchasing land is the availability
pace that the national grid was not designed to serve. Over 60% of the transmission
“Organizations cannot wait for grid expansions, so they must invest in temporary power, gas-powered generation, solar arrays, and hybrid energy storage systems”
network operates near maximum capacity, with critical bottlenecks concentrated in high-demand corridors. In May 2024, grid reserve margins fell to
Jakub Holecek
approximately 3%, below the regulatory
Business Development Manager Data Centers | Aggreko
minimum of 6% required for stable operations. National manufacturing losses during major
15
outages reach an estimated US$200 million
Luis Lugo, Country Head Mexico, CloudHQ,
per hour, while the Jalisco industrial corridor
highlighted that data center developers now
alone suffered from US$12 million to US$15
operate like dowsers searching for energy
million in losses.
lines because traditional industrial parks lack sufficient power density. Historical
A data center requiring 40MW of constant
a l l o c a t i o n s o f 2 5 0 k W/ h a h ave b e e n
supply cannot operate in a zone with frequent
replaced by multi-megawatt requirements
grid emergencies, directly threatening Mexico’s
driven by aerospace, automotive, and
ability to capture capital-intensive nearshoring
artificial intelligence technologies.
segments. For hyperscale operators, uptime is a contractual obligation; a facility that cannot
Lugo adds that the regulatory approval
guarantee 99.999% availability cannot compete
timeline via the utility takes nearly 14
for high-return workloads.
months before purchasing a transformer, projects face massive deployment delays
Capital Escalation and Private Infrastructure Investment Arturo Bravo, Honorary Advisor, MEXDC,
and compounded supply chain bottlenecks.
Decentralized Generation and Regional Competitive Risks
said that the trajectory requires massive capitalization. The market expanded from
For operators with smaller power
115.5MW in 2024 to 235MW in 2025, reaching
requirements, on-site generation has become
279MW in 2026. Projections indicate that
the standard alternative to grid connection
the industry expects to attract US$20 billion
delays. Jakub Holecek, Business Development
in direct investment and US$61 billion in
Manager Data Centers, Aggreko, said that
indirect investment, expanding total capacity
when capacity is unavailable, companies
to 1.7GW by 2031. Investment from 2025 to
must deploy decentralized solutions.
2030 is set to reach US$18 billion, adding 80 to 90 data centers.
“ O rg a n i z at i o n s c a n n o t wa i t fo r g r i d expansions, so they must invest in temporary
This rapid scaling faces a declining public
power, gas-powered generation, solar
investment landscape. CFE’s budget
arrays, and hybrid energy storage systems,”
allocated for 2026 is 16.7% lower in real terms
said Holecek. Although on-site generation
than 2025, meaning less public investment is
increases operational costs per megawatt-
available precisely when the generation gap
hour and redirects capital, it remains the
is widest. Consequently, hyperscale operators
only method to ensure continuity. Holecek
are building the infrastructure that the public
noted that the adoption of lithium-ion energy
utility does not provide.
storage and peak-shaving strategies is
16
accelerating among large-scale users seeking
Colombia announced 1.2GW of dedicated
energy sovereignty.
capacity in 2025, and Chile established a regulatory fast-track framework.
Queretaro concentrates the highest volume of digital infrastructure development in Mexico,
Because data center investment decisions
accounting for 15% of facilities nationwide with
operate on 12-month to 18-month cycles,
an installed capacity of 200MW. The MEXDC
Mexico must resolve transmission bottlenecks
projects that the state will concentrate 69%
to preserve its advantage under USMCA.
of the operational megawatts in the country
Additionally, corporate sustainability
by 2030. Currently, the Queretaro Energy
commitments require renewable generation,
Agency reports 18 operating data centers with
which remains intermittent in the local market.
outstanding grid requests for 540MW. While CFE announced an US$8.2 billion The projected national capacity of 1,516MW
transmission expansion plan running from
by 2030 is equivalent to the entire current
2025 to 2030, targeting northern corridors
electrical demand of Queretaro, creating risks
with 58 projects across 25 states during 2026
that future investments may be diverted to
and 2027, the timeline remains the primary
competing regional hubs. For instance,
tension for industrial operators.
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY, STORAGE, SECURITY, AND INVESTMENT The Mexican government announced
imported between 69% and 75% of its dry gas
investments of MX$140.9 billion (US$8.1
consumption between 2020 and 2024.
billion) by 2030 to modernize, maintain and expand natural gas pipelines across
“Most of the natural gas that Mexico consumes
the country. The scale is historically
is imported, and over the next 15 years it will
unprecedented for Mexico’s gas sector. CFE
remain a highly competitive commodity. But
Director General Emilia Calleja confirmed that
having pipelines is not enough, we need to
nine new CFE pipelines will concentrate 38%
know that gas will be available exactly when
of the total investment, designed specifically
it is needed. Europe and the United States
to feed 13 new combined-cycle power plants
already have over 100GW of storage capacity.
adding nearly 8,000MW of capacity between
Mexico sits at 2.8GW. We need to close that
2026 and 2027, seven of which are scheduled
gap. Infrastructure connectivity and storage
to enter operation this year alone.
are not the same thing, and confusing the
The Libramiento Reynosa pipeline, one of
alternatives, not just pipes but the capacity
the most strategically critical projects in
to absorb disruption when supply chains
the portfolio, is already 99.21% complete
fail,” said Juan Paulo Cervantes, Commercial
and scheduled for inauguration in June
Director, Solensa.
two leaves us exposed. Resilience requires
2026, connecting SISTRANGAS to the Texas Eastern Transmission Pipeline Company and
CENAGAS Director General Cuitláhuac
Tennessee Gas Pipeline and increasing gas
García has noted that 70% of the electricity
supply to northern Mexico. For an energy
consumed in Mexico is generated through
community that has watched storage and
natural gas, a dependency that makes
pipeline commitments dissolve for the better
pipeline reliability a first-order grid security
part of a decade, the pace is notable.
issue, not merely a fuel supply matter. When CENACE issued an operational alert in early
However, Mexico imported 6.63Bcf/d of
May as heat drove demand past 48,000MW,
natural gas via pipelines from the United States
the adequacy of the gas supply network
in 2025. Imports of dry gas have consistently
feeding Mexico’s combined-cycle fleet moved
increased over the past decades, as domestic
from a medium-term planning concern to an
dry-gas output has generally declined. Mexico
immediate operational priority.
17
T h e U S $ 8 .1 b i l l i o n i n ve s t m e n t p l a n
The gap between infrastructure ambition
addresses the transmission and distribution
and operational reality has forced Mexico’s
layer of this problem. It does not address
industrial sector to improvise. The near-term
the source. Wood Mackenzie forecast
solution for companies that cannot wait for
that Mexico’s dry gas production would
pipeline connections or storage facilities
dip modestly to 2.299Bcf/d in 2026, from
has been small-scale LNG: trucks delivering
2.302Bcf/d in 2025. Domestic production,
liquefied natural gas to industrial sites that
in other words, is not growing and the
are not connected to the network, or that
new pipelines being built will carry more
need supply security the pipeline system
imported US gas, not less.
cannot guarantee.
“Beyond the immediate challenges of supply
“The question companies are not asking
and storage, the central task is building
loudly enough is: what happens when my
an energy system that is truly integral,
operations go down? We are no longer
resilient, and designed with a long-term
talking about delays of a few hours,
horizon. Current national demand levels
disruptions now last days, sometimes
make that urgency undeniable. The path
up to two weeks, and the cost impact is
forward has three pillars: expanding and
significant. Energy has become a strategic
strengthening storage capacity, reinforcing
asset, not a utility. Industrial parks are
distribution and infrastructure networks,
already advertising reliable energy supply
and developing domestic production. These
as a competitive differentiator. If you locate
are not independent priorities, they have
in a facility without secure energy, you are
to be built together if Mexico is going to
not just taking an operational risk, you are
have a gas sector capable of supporting the
locking up capital with no return. That is
industrial growth the country is committing
not a risk any serious operation should
to,” said Jorge Sandoval, Director General,
be willing to take,” said Diego Pecoraro,
Mexican Natural Gas Association (AMGN).
Director of Infrastructure and Capital Projects, Alvarez & Marsal.
In March 2018, Mexico’s Energy Ministry published a gas storage policy calling
CENAGAS has planned to hire small-scale
for 45Bcf of strategic inventories to be
liquefied natural gas companies to manage
operational by 2026. Nothing materialized.
peak shaving and provide a supply buffer, a
David Madero, the moderator of this panel
pragmatic acknowledgment that the formal
and former head of CENAGAS, highlighted
infrastructure timeline and the industrial
that strategic storage plans had been in
demand timeline are not aligned. Companies
place for years, but nothing advanced
like Solensa, which built Mexico’s first LNG
from them.
liquefaction facility, represent a commercially
18
or tariff applied to cross-border gas flows would have immediate consequences for electricity generation, industrial production, and the nearshoring investment thesis that Mexico has built its economic strategy around. In this context, the concepts of energy sovereignty and energy self-sufficiency, pillars of Mexico’s energy policy, lack a solid foundation, as one industry analyst observed. The investment plan announced in May 2026 is a response to this reality. Whether it is a sufficient one depends on answers that go beyond pipeline kilometers and billion-peso commitments. driven response to a structural gap that government investment plans have not
The Infrastructure Investment Plan for
yet closed.
Development with Well-Being 2026–2030 includes energy among its eight strategic
“Sixty percent of natural gas consumption
sectors for public and mixed investment
in Mexico goes directly toward power
programs totaling MX$5.6 trillion. Within this
g e n e ra t i o n , w h i c h m e a n s i m p rov i n g
plan, gas transport and related infrastructure
competitiveness in this sector is not just about
are seen as priority components supporting
one link in the chain, it touches everything.
industrial growth, power generation, and
On infrastructure, there is real reluctance to
supply security.
invest because last-mile delivery costs can be prohibitively high. The demand is there, many
Underground storage, distributed LNG
industrial users want pipeline gas and simply
networks, and biomethane infrastructure
cannot access it. So, in the absence of better
all require private participation, long-term
options, some are investing in their own
regulatory frameworks, and returns that
last-mile infrastructure just to secure supply.
pencil against a backdrop of price uncertainty
That should not be necessary. It signals a
and an evolving energy law. The March 2025
structural gap that the market alone is not
LESE reform, which restructured the rules
going to solve,” said Guadalupe Paredes,
governing private energy investment, has
CEO, Luxem Energía.
not yet produced the regulatory clarity that infrastructure financiers need to commit to
The question of whether this constitutes a viable long-term strategy or a temporary fix that delays the harder conversation about demand-side flexibility, interruptible contracts, and distributed gas production is one the sector has not fully answered.
The Geopolitical Dimension Mexico’s gas dependency on the United States has always been a commercial issue but it is becoming a geopolitical one. The USMCA renegotiation has placed energy squarely on the trade agenda, and US negotiators are well aware that Mexico’s power grid runs on American gas. Any disruption, politicization,
assets with 20-to-30-year payback horizons.
19
BEYOND SOLAR—THE BESS REVOLUTION For years, developers, lenders, and industrial
The regulatory moment arrived against a
energy users interested in battery storage
backdrop of ambitious planning commitments
systems (BESS) in Mexico faced a version of
that now have legal infrastructure behind
the same problem: the technology worked,
them. The PLADESE, published in October
the economics were improving, but the legal
2025, establishes binding planning targets
architecture was missing. Injecting stored
including approximately 6GW of battery
energy into the grid lived in a regulatory
storage by 2030. The first major renewable
grey zone that drove up insurance costs,
tender, launched in October 2025, offered
complicated power purchase agreements,
5.9GW of renewable capacity with a
and made project financing structurally
requirement to incorporate storage equivalent
difficult. Revenue stacking, combining
to at least 25% of installed capacity. Its
income from energy arbitrage, frequency
resolution, published in December, awarded
regulation, and capacity, was technically
3.3GW of renewables and 1.5GW of batteries,
possible but commercially unmonetizable
approximately 55% of the volume offered.
because no contract recognized those flows.
Against a base of installed BESS capacity that remains a small fraction of that target. The regulatory framework is a necessary
“Large-scale energy projects depend on
condition for reaching that number.
long-term supply certainty. To unlock greater investment in storage and distributed
However, market players emphasize that a
generation, Mexico should explore
written framework is only the starting point.
government guarantee programs and
“The fact that a regulatory framework exists
financing mechanisms that reduce
does not necessarily mean that a market
borrowing costs
exists,” cautioned Andrea Lozano, Director
and improve access to credit”
General, BID Energy. “It is up to us to build
Humbert García
that market so the industry can improve its
CEO | Kiin Energy
capacity in storage matters. One thing is what is written on paper, and another is what can actually work in reality,” she stressed.
That changed in two ways. On March 17,
An Unexpected Bottleneck
2026, the CNE published in the Official Gazette a new model contract governing
Global supply chains for high-voltage
the interconnection and connection of power
electrical equipment have been under
plants, energy storage systems, and load
sustained pressure since 2022, driven by
centers to the National Transmission Network.
concurrent grid modernization programs
This is the first regulation to formally and
across Europe, North America, and Asia.
explicitly incorporate battery energy storage
But the timing creates a specific challenge
systems as a legal subject within Mexico’s
for Mexico: the regulatory framework that
national electricity framework. Six weeks later,
was supposed to unlock investment arrived
the CNE published the first comprehensive
precisely when the physical components
regulatory framework for the integration,
needed to execute that investment are
operation, and market participation of
hardest to source.
battery energy storage systems, defining five participation modalities: associated with
Once components are secured, navigating
power plants, load centers, self-consumption,
the regulatory approval process introduces
transmission and distribution infrastructure,
major timeline volatility.
and standalone, with clear rules on studies, permits, metering, transitional offers,
Casiopea Ramírez, Partner, Fresh Energy
and tariffs.
Consulting, pointed out that project
20
closure calendars are highly dependent on
of approximately MX$100,000/MW, and the
visibility regarding necessary permits. While
fixing of contract prices as unique, fixed, and
authorities face technical requirements that
invariable for the entire contract duration,
demand rapid assessment, that specific
introduces rigidities that affect project
streamlined pathway is currently missing a
economics. The legal acts and guarantees
standardized execution process under the
rest entirely with the private developer, with
regulation, leaving developers exposed to
no shared responsibility from CENACE, a risk
unpredictable, uncontrolled bureaucratic
allocation that shapes the return profile every
demands. “Whether closing a specific project
lender and equity investor will price.
at a large or small scale, it depends heavily on the visibility you have regarding the permits
Financing structures are also heavily split
you need to obtain,” she added.
between large-scale and on-site projects. Humberto García, CEO of Kiin Energy,
Ramírez said that, although the rules
explained that for utility-scale projects, banks
consider several cases where only a rapid
must clear the source of payment. Under the
study is required, there is a minor detail: a
current rules, energy will be integrated into
standardized procedure for how that rapid
the market, but if projects are fully subjected
study is conducted does not exist. Instead,
to spot market volatility, financial institutions
CENACE evaluates under new rules where
will view them as lacking a secure payment
everything is subject to expenses demanding
stream. Conversely, on-site storage aimed
additional protection system impact studies,
at peak shaving offers a clear, predictable
and all this permits-related uncertainty
source of payment over time through existing
impacts the project closure calendar and
legal instruments in Mexico, making credit
commercial operation dates. “Once you
implementation much more viable.
have sorted out that issue, and you are clear on the product types and volumes, project
To bridge this financial gap, García Handal
implementation is extremely fast; if CENACE
suggested a concrete intervention: “Large-
publishes the contracts and they can receive
scale energy projects depend on long-term
feedback from banks and technology
supply certainty. To unlock greater investment
providers, it could serve as a trigger to scale
in storage and distributed generation, Mexico
these projects,” she stressed.
should explore government guarantee programs and financing mechanisms that
The new framework also introduces financial
reduce borrowing costs and improve access
rigidities that some analysts flag as bancability
to credit.” He noted that a very significant
constraints. The requirement for guarantees
percentage of a project’s business currently
21
goes to the financial sector due to high
early success stories to attract investment
interest rates, preventing private actors from
funds. Furthermore, industrial adoption
capturing full benefits.
faces an educational hurdle; many end-users suffer from a misunderstanding of project
Framework Hits and Misses
economics, viewing batteries as an extra cost rather than a cost-reduction tool that is
The most consequential element of the new
destined to follow the same downward price
regulation for the storage sector is that BESS
curve previously witnessed with solar panels.
has acquired its own regulatory identity, separate from generation, a structural change
Operational rules are similarly vital for asset
in how storage participates in the market.
preservation and technical bankability.
That distinction matters for permitting, for
“Batteries are fundamentally a flexibility
metering, for market offers, and for how
solution. While Mexico has established
projects are classified in financial structures.
a regulatory framework, the next step is updating the technical standards and grid
What it does not resolve is the operational
requirements needed to unlock the full
certainty question that developers flag as
value of energy storage,” said Raúl Gutiérrez,
the real determinant of project viability.
Sales Manager Power Conversion Solutions
The regulation addresses permits and
LATAM, Hitachi Energy. Gutiérrez warned that
interconnection with notable clarity. It is
secondary technical documents, including
less explicit on dispatch rules, curtailment
the Grid Code, must be updated to treat
treatment, and the revenue certainty that
storage as a holistic system rather than just
project finance requires over a 15-to-20-year
a standalone battery, noting that a battery
horizon. A permit framework and a bankable
does not integrate power directly into the
revenue model are not the same document.
grid without its full conversion components.
Operational certainty and broader ecosystem
F ro m a l e n d e r ’s p e r s p e c t i ve , a s s e t
alignment remain the true determinants
degradation over a 20-year horizon makes
of project viability, proving that a permit
technical guarantees critical. Developers
framework and a bankable revenue model are
must present fully understood technical
not the same document. Juan Acra, President,
solutions to financial institutions. “If the
Mexican Energy Council (COMENER),
battery was designed for a specific use case
emphasized that regulatory updates alone
and the owner has no control over how the
cannot drive the market forward without
asset is actually operated, it will not achieve
parallel advancements in financing structures,
its intended lifespan,” Gutiérrez explained.
local technical alignment, and cross-industry education. He pointed out that while
The comparison to Mexico’s solar experience
Mexico possesses world-class technical
is one the storage industry would do well to
talent, the storage sector must actively
take seriously. Mexico’s solar sector went
unite its fragmented capabilities and build
through its own regulatory inflection point
a solid portfolio of early success stories to
in the early 2010s, followed by a period
comfortably attract international capital and
of rapid capacity additions, followed by a
clear strict institutional lending criteria.
policy reversal that left projects stranded, contracts disputed, and investor confidence
To clear increasingly strict institutional
damaged in ways that took years to repair.
lending criteria for these capital-intensive
The sequence, regulatory opening, rapid
projects, Acra noted that Mexico must send
scaling, absorption crisis, is not inevitable,
better signals to international markets. While
but it is a documented pattern.
the country boasts an unparalleled workforce of technicians and developers, the storage
The decisions in question span several
sector needs to unite these fragmented
dimensions simultaneously: whether
capabilities and build a solid portfolio of
domestic banks develop BESS underwriting
22
capacity before the project pipeline outpaces
the institutional relationships between
their ability to finance it; whether the
developers, CENACE, and the CNE mature
industry builds standards and certification
fast enough to handle the operational
infrastructure before a safety incident
complexity that gigawatt-scale storage
creates a political backlash; and whether
deployment will introduce.
ESG IN ENERGY: ACHIEVING DECARBONIZATION THROUGH GOOD PRACTICES ESG disclosures have transitioned from
NDC 3.0, mandates that national emissions
voluntary communications into strict legal
must peak by 2027, with 70% of new power
obligations with significant financial and
capacity derived from renewable sources
regulatory consequences for the entire
between 2025 and 2030.
energy sector. This regulatory evolution stems from the implementation of international
This commitment impacts the industrial
accounting standards that treat climate
sector, which generates approximately
risks as material financial indicators. Israel
18% of national emissions. Hard-to-abate
Hurtado, President, H2Mexico noted that
segments, including power generation,
the primary corporate objective is evaluating
gas distribution, and cogeneration, carry
“what separates an organization that uses
t h e h e av i e st d e c a r b o n i z at i o n l o a d s .
ESG as a strategic lever from one that uses
Cogeneration is an explicit pathway for
it as a reputational shield.”
Scope 1 reductions, yet adoption remains low due to grid interconnection rules and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the new
“A company that submits its investments
LESE framework.
to analyze if they reduce emissions, bring energy savings, or protect against input price volatility is a company truly
Operational Realities and DataDriven Governance in Mexico
concerned with carbon”
Daniel Salazar President | COGENERA MÉXICO
The structural challenge for the Mexican energy sector lies in the reality that the gap between traditional reporting and new regulatory standards represents a governance issue rather than a formatting
In January 2025, Mexico became the
p ro b l e m . H i s t o r i c a l l y, s u s t a i n a b i l i t y
first nation in North America to mandate
functions in Mexican energy corporations
sustainability reporting through a dual
resided
framework: IFRS S1 and IFRS S2 for public
departments instead of finance or strategy
issuers listed on Mexican stock exchanges,
teams. Consequently, sustainability targets
and the Sustainability Information Norms,
have been established without verified
known as NIS, for private companies. Non-
baseline data, and supply chain emissions
compliance with the 2026 reports, based
under Scope 3 remain unmeasured.
within
communications
on fiscal year 2025 data, risks severe penalties including fines, administrative
Addressing these deficiencies requires
arrest, and closures. External auditor
empirical metrics. Eugenio Grandio, President,
assurance of the NIS requirements will be
EMA emphasizes that precise data collection
mandatory beginning in 2027, establishing
is the foundational element for operational
this year’s reports as the baseline for future
adjustments over environmental narratives.
audited disclosures. “If we want to make it a matter of real change, S i m u l t a n e o u s l y, M ex i co ’s N a t i o n a l l y
we have to arrive at information and data,”
Determined Contributions framework,
says Grandio, noting that the association
23
conducted extensive censuses to track charging infrastructure, connector types,
Global Energy Market Projections and Financial Integration
and energy consumption. Grandio adds that even though electric vehicles represent only
Global market realities confirm that deep
3% of market sales, accurate data allows
decarbonization requires drastic strategic
corporations to calculate emission reductions
adjustments. Original research conducted
and air quality improvements.
by bp in its annual energy outlook indicates that maintaining current policies would only
Industrial decarbonization also requires
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 25% by
active consumer participation. Daniel Salazar,
2050, whereas achieving net-zero targets
President, COGENERA MEXICO, argues that
requires a 95% reduction.
because natural gas powers 60% of Mexican electricity generation, decarbonization
Selene González, Communications Director,
responsibilities extend beyond public utilities
bp, notes the organization has published
to end users.
this analysis since the year 2000 to project trajectories through 2050. “In the next
“A company that submits its investments
10 years, oil remains fundamental,” says
to analyze if they reduce emissions, bring
González, clarifying that global demand will
energy savings, or protect against input
hover between 85MMb/d and 100MMb/d by
price volatility is a company truly concerned
2035 due to petrochemical requirements.
with carbon,” says Salazar. Proper corporate
To navigate this reality, González states that
governance requires dedicated investment
bp utilizes advanced technology to reduce
committees to oversee these allocations
operational emissions by 37% compared to
and align technical personnel with corporate
2019 baselines.
climate strategies. The integration of ESG into corporate finance Regulatory compliance further demands
represents a permanent structural shift. José
organizational alignment. Javier García,
Pablo Rinkenbach, Executive Director of Asset
Director General, CONUEE highlights
Management and ESG, AINDA, stresses that
that governance transcends standard
international accounting systems have spent 25
administrative frameworks and requires
years forcing corporations to disclose long-term
genuine institutional commitment. Under
liabilities on balance sheets. Recent mandates
national energy planning laws, major consumers
apply this financial rigor to environmental and
and suppliers must report consumption metrics
social impacts, meaning compliance directly
and energy-saving measures.
affects corporate valuations.
24
“This is no longer optional; it is a matter of
Experts conclude that financial metrics are
what you submit to the stock exchange,” says
the ultimate drivers of corporate behavior,
Pablo, highlighting that AINDA manages highly
rendering traditional sustainability
rated infrastructure assets, such as a highway
brochures completely obsolete as
in Tuxtla and Tlaxcala, and maintains low gas
institutional investors integrate ESG
flaring rates through strict asset management.
screening into capital allocation frameworks.
WHAT IS THE NEXT FRONTIER IN SOLAR?
Mexico’s solar energy market’s growth is
quietly repricing solar project risk in ways the
anchored by President Sheinbaum’s 45%
industry has not fully absorbed.
clean power target for 2030, a resource base that covers 85% of national territory with high
The Wholesale Market Problem
irradiance, and a regulatory regime that keeps private-sector pathways open even as CFE
Mexico’s wholesale electricity market,
maintains a dominant generation share. The
designed in 2014 and restructured in 2025
capital is interested and the policy framework,
under the LESE, was not built for a system in
for the first time in years, is legible.
which solar represents a meaningful share of total generation. At high penetration levels,
“There is no question that the public sector is
solar creates predictable patterns of daytime
backing renewables, this is a new paradigm.
price suppression and evening price spikes
We are seeing tenders that explicitly prioritize
that erode the economics of standalone solar
clean energy, and AI is opening the door to
projects while creating value for dispatchable
better, faster questions across the industry,”
generation and storage. The phenomenon is
said Lilia Alonzo, Partner, Aurea Partners.
well documented in mature solar markets like those of California, Spain, and Chile, and
The sector’s maturation is producing a
Mexico is beginning to encounter its early-
set of tensions that were invisible when
stage version.
solar was a niche technology competing on cost alone. Three are now structurally
Curtailment reduces delivered volumes and
significant: the design of Mexico’s wholesale
decreases profits. Because fixed operating
electricity market, the evolution of corporate
and financing costs stay constant while
PPA structures under buyer pressure that
production drops, margins are reduced,
is increasingly difficult to satisfy with
impacting liquidity. Persistent curtailment
intermittent generation, and a global
can lower project valuations. For developers
financing and insurance environment that is
using nodes with high congestion probability,
25
a risk that is difficult to assess precisely at the
expected to begin in November 2026, with
time of investment, curtailment exposure is a
projects entering commercial operation
financial risk that project finance lenders are
between 2028 and 2029.
now pricing explicitly. Timing is a challenge, however. “When A single substation bottleneck can raise
tenders are announced, companies have just
delivery risk for new offtakers. The geographic
40 days to submit documentation and many
concentration of Mexico’s installed solar
struggle because financing decisions cannot
capacity in the north and the Bajio, combined
move that fast. The real success of mixed-
with demand growth driven by nearshoring
investment models will depend on how well
manufacturing and datacenter investment
the commercial structure is designed from
in central Mexico and Queretaro, means that
day one,” said Daniel García, Commercial
the misalignment between where solar is
Director, Atlas Renewable Energy.
cheapest to build and where industrial buyers need energy is growing rather than shrinking.
The implications for market structure are significant. A 25-year PPA with CFE as
CFE PPA: A Market Reshaping Event
offtaker is the most bankable structure available in Mexico’s solar market: it offers
Mexico has formally launched a public-private
the long-term revenue certainty that project
investment framework aimed at adding
finance requires and eliminates the corporate
7.5GW of renewable capacity by 2030. At
counterparty risk that makes shorter-duration
the core of the model are power purchase
private PPAs harder to finance. But the entry
agreements of up to 25 years, under which
requirements, proven experience, ready-to-
CFE acts as the offtaker for most electricity
build project status, and financial capacity to
generated, purchasing 70% of output under
absorb contingency costs, effectively screen
long-term contracts. Private investors provide
out smaller developers and new entrants.
100% of the equity capital and undertake construction, while CFE contributes land,
Outside the CFE framework, Mexico’s corporate
permitting management, project operation,
PPA market faces its own set of pressures that
and grid integration. The resulting ownership
mirror a global trend. Global offsite corporate
structure allocates 54% to CFE and 46% to
PPA deals totaled approximately 55.9GW
the private partner.
across 712 agreements in 2025, down about 10% from the 2024 record, ending a growth streak that began in 2016. The drivers of the
“There is no question that the public sector
global pullback are relevant to Mexico: grid
is backing renewables, this is a new
congestion and curtailment risk eroding
paradigm. We are seeing tenders that
financial logic for standalone solar and wind,
explicitly prioritize clean energy, and AI
interconnection delays extending project
is opening the door to better, faster
timelines, and complex contract structures that
questions across the industry”
most mid-size buyers do not have the internal
Lilia Alonzo
expertise to evaluate.
Partner| Aurea Partners
In Mexico industrial buyers are demanding contract terms that the solar market is struggling to deliver. The requirement for The tender process includes evaluation
firm, reliable energy supply at a predictable
criteria, with emphasis on proven experience
price over a 10-to-15-year horizon is difficult
in renewable energy and energy storage
to satisfy with intermittent generation alone.
projects, technical and financial capacity,
Buyers are asking for curtailment protections,
project maturity, corporate governance
backup supply provisions, and delivery
structure, and ability to absorb additional
guarantees that fundamentally change the
risks and contingency costs. Construction is
risk profile of the contract for the developer.
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The result is a widening gap between what buyers want to sign and what developers can bankably offer. Contracts are getting shorter, price escalation clauses are becoming more complex, and some deals are falling through not because the economics are wrong but because the risk allocation cannot be agreed. The market is searching for structures, be them hybrid solar-plus-storage, virtual PPAs,
Mexico’s energy regulatory history since 2018
or aggregated multi-site agreements, that
has given lenders reason to price that risk at a
can bridge this gap, but those structures
level they would not have considered in 2015.
are more expensive to develop and require capabilities that not every developer in
The insurance dimension is less discussed but
Mexico currently has.
equally real. Global insurers have tightened solar project coverage in response to severe
“The evolution of the market is clear.
convective storm losses that drove record
Buyers are becoming more sophisticated
insured losses in 2025. Premium increases
and incorporating technologies such
and coverage restrictions are now appearing
as bat te ry storage i n to th e i r e n e rg y
in Mexican solar project budgets at a level
strategies. The remaining challenge is legal
that affects project IRR, and some projects in
certainty, which remains a critical factor
hailstorm-prone regions of northern Mexico
for long-term agreements and investment
are facing coverage gaps that complicate
decisions,” said Javier Salinas, Sr. Sales
lender requirements.
Manager LATAM, NextPower.
How Is the Industry Faring? “Storage is now part of the regulatory framework; it is not perfect, but it is there,
“We are still in a transition moment. There
and that is a big deal. Mexico does not have
are no concrete cases yet that prove the new
an energy problem; it has a power availability
regulatory framework fully works. Compared
problem at critical hours and locations.
to countries with 10 years of experience
Storage solves that immediately for grid
where everything flows smoothly, Mexico
stability,” said Alejandro Fajer, CEO, Quartux.
still has a way to go, but we are moving in the right direction,” said Luis Felipe Vélez,
The Financing Aspect
Director General, Atera Energy.
The solar project financing environment in
“The companies willing to take on risk right
2026 is meaningfully different from 2022,
now, even when not everything is clear, are the
and the change is not entirely captured in
ones that will benefit the most. Every contract
interest rates. Lenders to solar projects are
won helps institutionalize these new processes
pricing risks that were previously treated as
and builds the foundation others will follow,”
immaterial: transmission node congestion and
said Ian De La Garza, CEO, Finsolar.
curtailment probability, insurance premium inflation driven by extreme weather losses,
The developers and buyers who will close
and the residual value uncertainty introduced
transactions in this environment are those who
by regulatory frameworks that have changed
engage with these risks explicitly, who model
twice in five years.
curtailment probability by node, structure insurance coverage before financial close
P o l i c y u n ce r t a i n t y m a t te r s b e c a u s e
rather than after, and design contracts with risk
curtailment and access terms can shift faster
allocations that reflect actual project exposure
than contract cycles. For a 25-year solar
rather than market convention from five years
asset, regulatory stability is not a nice-to-
ago. That is the capability gap the Mexican
have but a direct input into the discount rate.
solar sector is now being asked to close.
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