MEF 2026 - Impact Report

IMPACT REPORT

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Last year Mexico’s energy reform moved from political announcement to legal text. Now, industry players are finding out what regulations allow and what is still pending to be defined.

The Electricity Sector Law, signed in March 2025, settled a question that had paralyzed investment decisions for half a decade: does private capital have a place in Mexico’s electricity system? The answer is yes. The framework is real, the planning targets are binding, and the government has shown willingness to engage at the technical level, something that was largely absent in the previous administration.

The question now is whether the model being assembled can move fast enough. Mexico’s electricity demand is growing at a pace the grid was not designed to serve. Data centers are concentrating in Queretaro faster than substations can be built. Nearshoring manufacturers are arriving in Nuevo Leon and the Bajio only to find that their energy supply timeline is measured in years, not months. Battery storage finally has its own regulatory identity after a March 2026 framework gave it legal standing but bankability gaps, equipment lead times, and operational rules are still being resolved. Solar has 16GW installed and a target of 31GW by 2031, but the corporate PPA market is under structural pressure from buyers demanding guarantees that intermittent generation alone cannot provide. Meanwhile, the USMCA review, which opened its first bilateral round just days before the Forum, adds a layer of geopolitical complexity to every cross-border energy investment decision in the country.

It is in this context of genuine progress and equally genuine urgency that industry leaders gathered at Mexico Energy Forum 2026. The conversations that followed were not about whether Mexico’s energy transformation is underway. They were about the gap between the framework and the market, between the planning documents and the executed projects, between the regulatory signal and the bankable transaction. Bridging that gap, as speakers across every panel made clear, is not a technical problem or a legal problem alone. It is a question of institutional velocity, commercial creativity, and the willingness of public and private actors to close deals in conditions of imperfect certainty rather than wait for a clarity that may never fully arrive.

4

C o nfe r ence I mpact

153

companies

243

conference participants

5

34

sponsors

speakers

8,671

17th

visits to the conference website

Edition

Breakdown by job title

35.4% Manager / Senior / Head 25.1% VP / Director / Partner 21.4% Analyst / Executive / Advisor 18.1% President / CEO / Country Manager / Director General

Conference social media impact

Pre-conference social media impact

2,958 direct impressions during MEF

53,779 direct pre-conference LinkedIn impressions

7.1% click through rate during MEF

4.3% pre-conference click through rate

8.5% conference engagement rate

5.8% pre-conference engagement rate

Matchmaking Mexico’s leading B2B conference organizer uses a customized app to deliver an unparalleled experience The MBE App delivered AI-powered intent-based matchmaking to Mexico Energy Forum 2026 attendees

MBE App Impact

Matchmaking intentions

183

participants

1,025

matchmaking communications

97

1:1 meetings conducted

682 Trading Total

1,143

461 Networking

5

C o mpany Attendance •

A3E Ingenieros

•

Consejo Mexicano de Energía

•

AB ENERGY MEXICO

•

Consultoría Sustentable G2H

•

AECOM México

•

Control Union

•

AEI Hidrocarburos

•

CONUEE

•

AEROPUERTO INTERNACIONAL FELIPE ÁNGELES

•

Coppel

•

AES

•

COSTCO

•

Aggreko

•

Cox México

•

AINDA Energía e infraestructura

•

Cubico Sustainable Investments

•

ALAPSI

•

Data IQ

•

Alcione Sonepar

•

Deacero

•

Alliance

•

DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING MEXICO

•

Aloi

•

DISRUPTIVE SINERGIES

•

Alvarez & Marsal

•

DNV

•

AMGNV

•

DowJones

•

Aosenuma

•

DVL Film House

•

ARENDAL

•

Electriz

•

Asociación de Empresas de Eficiencia Energética

•

Elevation Ideas

•

Asociación de Negocios e Industria Verde

•

EMA

•

Asociación Mexicana de Data Centers - MEXDC

•

Energia Infra

•

Asociación Mexicana de Hidrógeno y Transición Energética (H2México)

•

Energia Real

•

ENERGY BY 5

•

ASOLMEX

•

Energymaster

•

Atera

•

Énestas

•

Atlas Renewable Energy

•

ENGIE Mexico

•

Autodesk

•

EQUINIX

•

Banco Inbursa

•

Evonik

•

Banco Multiva

•

EVRY

•

Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext)

•

Finsolar

•

BBVA Mexico

•

Fresh Energy Consulting

•

BCYSA

•

Fuentes de Energía Peñoles S.A. De C.V.

•

Becerril, Coca & Becerril

•

Galicia Abogados

•

BID Energy

•

GP & H

•

Blacktogreen Consulting

•

Grid Automation Market Manager

•

BOS POWER LLC

•

Grupo Cinemex

•

bp

•

Grupo GTC

•

BTG Pactual

•

GRUPO ICONN

•

Bureau Veritas

•

Grupo México

•

Business France

•

Grupo Peñoles

•

Calibraciones profesionales

•

Heidrick & Struggles

•

Caliza

•

Hilti

•

CALPRO

•

Hitachi Energy

•

Cámara Verde

•

HOSTDIME

•

CAMEXA | German-Mexican Chamber of Industry and Commerce

•

IGSA

•

International SOS

•

CanCham México

•

INVEX Promoción de Inversiones

•

Catenon

•

iPS Powerful People

•

Cloud HQ

•

ITAM

•

CNBiogás

•

JWA

•

CNE

•

KDM Fires Systems

•

Cogenera México

•

Keymex Energy

•

COMENER

•

Kiin Energy

•

Comercial City Fresko SRL de CV

•

KPMG Mexico

6

C o mpany Attendance •

Kualion

•

Roxtec MX & Latam

•

La Comer

•

S&E Technology S.A de C.V

•

Latin American Green Chamber

•

SAMSON Company

•

LUXEM ENERGÍA

•

SICENRGY

•

MADISA

•

Sigma Foods

•

Mastercard

•

Simplificado Punto

•

METAL ONE DE MEXICO

•

Sing, ODATA

•

METRON

•

SMART IoT

•

MEXDC

•

Smurfitwestrock

•

Ministry of Economy

•

Solarfuel

•

MWM

•

Solensa

•

Nader, Hayaux & Goebel

•

Spencer Stuart

•

Natural Resources Defense Council

•

Speyside Group

•

NEG Natural

•

Square Energy

•

Netherlands Embassy

•

SUJIO

•

Nextpower

•

SUMMA INTERMEDIARIO DE REASEGURO

•

OCA GLOBAL

•

Tecnohargrove

•

ODATA

•

Terranova

•

OMERCIAL CITY FRESKO

•

The Solomon Brokerage Firm

•

Orbia Advance Corporation

•

Trio Advisory

•

Pandener

•

Tuto Power

•

Polímeros y Derivados

•

Vemo

•

PQ Barcon

•

Veolia

•

Prima

•

Vestas

•

Quartux

•

WALBRIDGE DE MEXICO

•

REGULUS 333

•

WTW

7

P r o g r am

W E D N E S D AY, J U N E 3 09:20

THE USMCA REVIEW: ENERGY TRADE & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Moderator: Guillermo García Alcocer, Former Chairman of the Federal Regulatory Commission and Professor at ITAM Panelists: Carlos de Maria y Campos, Galicia Abogados

José Eduardo Robledo, Tuto Power 10:15

PUBLIC & PRIVATE COLLABORATION 2.0

Moderator: Nelson Delgado, ASOLMEX Panelists: Alfonso Campos, Cox

Alejandra Espinosa, ENGIE Mexico

Gleb Kouznetsov, Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext)

Santiago Villagomez, Energia Real 12:00

POWERING THE MANUFACTURING AND DATA CENTER BOOM

Moderator: Arturo Bravo, Mexican Association of Data Centers MEXDC Panelists: Jakub Holecek, Aggreko

Luis Lugo, Cloud HQ

Héctor Sánchez, EQUINIX 12:40

NATURAL GAS SUPPLY, STORAGE, SECURITY AND INVESTMENT

Moderator: David Madero, Simplificado punto Panelists: Juan Paulo Cervantes, Solensa

Diego Pecoraro, Alvarez & Marsal

Jorge Sandoval, AMGN

Guadalupe Paredes, LUXEM ENERGÍA 13:20

BEYOND SOLAR—THE BESS REVOLUTION

Moderator: Andrea Lozano, BID Energy Panelists: Juan Acra, Consejo Mexicano de Energía

Raul Gutiérrez, Hitachi Energy

Humberto García, Kiin Energy

Casiopea Ramírez, Fresh Energy Consulting 15:00

ESG IN ENERGY: ACHIEVING DECARBONIZATION THROUGH GOOD PRACTICES

Moderator: Israel Hurtado, H2México Panelists: Eugenio Grandio, EMA

José Pablo Rinkenback, AINDA

Daniel Salazar, COGENERA México

Selene González, bp

Javier García, CONUEE 16:00

WHAT IS THE NEXT FRONTIER IN SOLAR?

Moderator: Lilia Alonzo, Aurea Partners Panelists: Daniel García, Atlas Renewable Energy

Javier Salinas, Nextpower

Alejandro Fajer, Quartux

Ian de la Garza, Finsolar

Luis Felipe Vélez, Atera Energy Check the panel/presentation’s highlights on mexicobusiness.mx clicking on the icon

8

THE USMCA REVIEW: ENERGY TRADE & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

The United States and Mexico launched the

legal tensions materialize. At the core of

first formal bilateral negotiating round of

these disputes is the question of whether

the USMCA Joint Review on May 27, with

regulatory changes that favor state-owned

sessions running through May 29 at Mexico’s

enterprises or alter market conditions are

Ministry of Economy in Mexico City. The

compatible with USMCA obligations on

first round focused on economic security

non-discrimination, fair competition, and

and rules of origin for key industrial goods.

investment protection.

A second round is scheduled for June 16 and 17 in Washington DC., which will also

The United States and Mexico have formally

include discussions on agriculture and a

launched the review and started technical

level playing field. Energy, the most legally

rounds to narrow key issues ahead of the

complex and politically sensitive chapter, has

treaty’s July 1, 2026 decision point. At

not yet reached formal text-level discussion,

the same time, the Trump administration

which means the industry is operating in a

continues to rely on sector-by-sector

window where the framework is being set

pressure, including tariffs, threats, and

but the energy-specific outcomes are still

partial understandings, as leverage to extract

genuinely open.

concessions. Mexico is seeking an early deal in high-impact sectors, steel, aluminum, and

The scale of what that window represents is

autos, before the formal review reaches

not abstract. “The energy association projects

its most sensitive phase, aiming to protect

1.2GW of new demand by 2030 driven by

regional supply chains and avoid further

data centers alone, on top of combined

erosion of investment confidence.

cycle and thermal installations that each take one to five years to build. The infrastructure

“The decisions being made today in

clock is already running, and the regulatory

Mexico’s energy sector do not exist in a

framework has to move at the same pace

vacuum, they are being shaped by what is

or the opportunity walks out the door,” said

coming in the USMCA review. The fact that

Guillermo García, Former Chairman, CRE, and

certain structures are being maintained and

Professor, ITAM.

protected tells you everything about how seriously the government is reading the

Consultations initiated by the United States

trade pressure it faces,” said José Eduardo

and Canada in 2022, concerning measures

Robledo, Commercial Director, Tuto Power.

affecting the participation of private and foreign companies in Mexico’s electricity

Three scenarios now appear most realistic.

and hydrocarbons sectors, illustrate how

The base case is a significant extension,

9

with negotiations stretching into late 2026

Even in the absence of broad investor-state

or beyond, concentrated in autos, energy,

dispute settlement access, state-to-state

China-related disciplines, and enforcement

dispute settlement remains available and has

architecture. A second path is serial annual

already been activated in relation to Mexico’s

reviews: with no deal reached in 2026, the

energy policies. The United States and

agreement enters yearly renewal cycles.

Canada opened formal USMCA consultations

USMCA stays in force but under a cloud

on Mexico’s energy policies in 2022, a process

of sustained uncertainty that discourages

that has been running in parallel with the

long-term investment. A third, less likely

current review. Those consultations have

scenario involves a breakdown of the trilateral

not been resolved. They are now folded into

architecture into bilateral arrangements.

the broader renegotiation, which means the energy chapter arrives at the table already pre-loaded with active legal disputes.

“The energy association projects 1.2GW of new demand by 2030 driven by data centers

US Trade Representative Greer stated:

alone, on top of combined cycle and thermal

“There are areas where Mexico is supposed

installations that each take one to five

to be complying with the USMCA where

years to build. The infrastructure clock

t h ey a re n o t . Th i s co u l d b e e n e rg y,

is already running, and the regulatory

telecommunications, agriculture, all kinds of

framework has to move at the same pace

things.” He confirmed his office is in active

or the opportunity walks out the door”

talks with Mexican officials about how Mexico

Guillermo García Former Chairman, CRE | Professor, ITAM

can come into better compliance. The explicit naming of energy as a non-compliance concern, by the USTR, on the record, is the sharpest signal the United States has sent about its intentions in this negotiation.

“If we reach a reality where the treaty is up

The legal complexity of that conversation

for revision every single year, that is a failure

is compounded by the diplomatic baggage

we cannot afford. We have to do everything

surrounding it. “What is coming is an

possible to avoid arriving at that scenario,”

extraordinarily complex negotiation, far

warned Carlos de Maria y Campos, Partner,

more difficult than it appears on the surface.

Galicia Abogados.

The USMCA review will not be handled in isolation. Every day we see new elements

The Energy Chapter: Legal Battle in Progress

complicating the US-Mexico relationship: dispute mechanisms, migration, the judicial reform inside the treaty and outside it,

Energy sits at the intersection of Mexico’s

narcoterrorism designations, extradition

sovereignty agenda and its trade

requests, and security cooperation. The first

commitments in a way that no other sector

expropriation hit a North American asset. The

does. The constitutional reform of October

first PPP that was terminated was American.

2024 and the LESE of March 2025, which

You sit down at the USMCA table with a

mandate 54% CFE participation in mixed

sector that is already stained, and the cherry

energy investment projects, restructure

on top is that you just expropriated someone.

dispatch priority in favor of state generation,

There is dialogue, but it comes at a very high

and eliminate the clean energy certificate

cost,” said Maria y Campos.

framework, represent the most significant restructuring of Mexico’s energy market since

The investor-state dispute settlement

the 2013 reform. They are also the most direct

mechanism is not an abstract legal concept

challenge to the treaty provisions that US and

for energy companies in Mexico; it is the

Canadian energy investors relied upon when

instrument through which billions of dollars in

they committed capital to Mexico.

capital were committed under the assumption

10

that regulatory changes affecting project

has active legal grievances, documented

economics would have legal consequences.

commercial damages, and an administration

The narrowing of ISDS access in USMCA

willing to use trade tools aggressively.

relative to NAFTA’s Chapter 11 was already a significant step back. The active disputes

F o r e n e r g y i n ve s t o r s w a t c h i n g t h e

arising from Mexico’s energy policy reversals

negotiation, the question is not whether

have tested what protection remains.

the treaty will survive, as most analysts expect some form of extension, but what

“Ongoing dispute processes will continue

the investor protection architecture looks

regardless of what new rules are introduced,

like when it does, and whether the new

the controversy mechanisms are too

framework provides enough legal certainty

standardized, too embedded in our shared

to underwrite the next generation of cross-

frameworks to be fundamentally altered.

border energy infrastructure.

That is actually a source of stability for active investors,” added Maria y Campos.

The Nearshoring Stake The energy chapter of the USMCA review is not only a bilateral legal dispute. It is a determinant of Mexico’s competitiveness as a manufacturing and industrial destination for the next decade. The companies relocating supply chains from Asia to Mexico, in automotive, electronics, aerospace, medical devices, are making 15-to-20year commitments that depend on energy being available, reliable, clean enough to satisfy corporate ESG mandates, and priced competitively against alternative locations.

Fitch Ratings describes an environment of serial annual reviews as one with “low certainty,” which could weaken the

To prevent USMCA’s expiration in 2036,

momentum of nearshoring investment. That

parties must submit notifications approving

assessment is conservative. For a company

renewal for another 16 years. The Trump

deciding between a Monterrey facility and

administration will likely withhold US renewal

one in Central Europe or Southeast Asia, the

approval to compel a partial renegotiation

difference between a stable 16-year USMCA

of certain commitments through the joint

extension and an annual renegotiation cycle

review. That leverage is most concentrated in

is not a marginal factor in the investment

the energy chapter, where the United States

case; it is close to determinative.

PUBLIC & PRIVATE COLLABORATION 2.0 The 2025 energy reform gave the private

The LESE includes more options for private

sector six ways to participate in Mexico’s

participants than its predecessor, including

electricity system. The fine print on mixed

long-term production contracts for exclusive

investment structures, distributed generation

sale to CFE and a mixed investment structure

thresholds, and the regulatory gaps, however,

that allows joint ownership of development

is still being defined. The October 2024

projects with CFE.

constitutional reform and the March 2025 LESE reform settled matters with more

“Until a few years ago, there was a genuine

clarity than the industry has had in years.

doubt as to whether there would be private

11

“Transmission development is a long-term

for the wholesale electricity market. Exempt

process, but Mexico needs short-term

plants may now have up to 0.7MW without

solutions as well. Creating clearer market

a CNE permit and may sell their surplus to a

signals for energy services and battery

qualified supplier.

storage could help strengthen grid reliability while attracting private investment”

Gleb Kouznetsov Energy Finance Director | Bancomext

The increase in the distributed generation threshold from the previous limit to 0.7MW is one of the most commercially significant regulatory changes for the industrial and commercial sector, expanding the universe of installations that can operate without

participation, or if there would be outright

a CNE generation permit while retaining

opposition to it in the sector,” noted Nelson

the right to sell surplus energy. Distributed

Delgado, Director General, ASOLMEX. “That

generation closed 2025 at around 5 to

is no longer the question; the question now

5.5GW, with projections indicating continued

is about the gradual pace, the conditions,

growth in 2026 driven by firm energy targets

and the terms. We came from a model of

and mandatory decarbonization goals.

open and non-discriminatory access to the

However, operational rollouts are facing

grid, and we have transitioned to a model

systemic administrative delays. Villagomez

focused on the non-prevalence of private

pointed out that while the 0.7MW rule is

entities over the state, binding planning, and

clear on paper, CFE has yet to issue the

so forth. We are now seeing the first practical

actual interconnection formats to liberate

steps regarding the implementation of this

these projects.

new energy model for Mexico.”

Under the self-consumption modality, projects CFE has committed to investing US$23.4

can be either isolated or grid-interconnected.

billion between 2024 and 2030, focused on

Isolated projects with capacity of up to

generation, transmission, and distribution

20MW are exempt from the energy sector’s

projects. That figure represents the public

social impact assessment requirement. That

anchor of the investment program. However,

exemption is significant: the social impact

the scale of investment will depend on how

assessment process has been one of the

quickly the regulatory architecture around the

most unpredictable variables in renewable

available participation modalities becomes

project development timelines, and removing

operational. Industry experts view this

it for smaller self-consumption installations

baseline as an essential acknowledgement

reduces one layer of execution risk.

of reality. “LESE is a signal of a recognition that things need to be done differently. The

Under long-term production contracts,

frameworks are there, and there is a clear

p owe r p l a n t s fi n a n c e d w i t h p r i va t e

priority and urgency for things to happen,

investment will supply energy exclusively to

which is positive. This is a shift we must

CFE, with no right to commercialize surplus

leverage to transform our infrastructure,”

with third parties. Mixed investment projects

noted Santiago Villagomez, CEO and

require private investors to be Mexican

Founder, Energía Real.

individuals, legal entities, or trusts domiciled in Mexico, with a maximum project duration

What the New Framework Actually Allows

of 30 years. The nationality requirement for mixed investment participants is a structural constraint that international

The new LESE establishes that generation

developers will need to navigate through

can be carried out by the state, by private

Mexican partnerships, joint ventures, or

parties, or through mixed investments,

trust structures, this time adding a layer of

distinguishing three modalities: distributed

corporate architecture that was not required

generation, self-consumption, and generation

under the prior framework.

12

PLADESE as Investment Beacon

financiers can use to size their pipelines and structure their financial models.

The Planning and Energy Transition Law introduces the Electricity Sector Development

SENER and CFE’s integrated projections

Plan (PLADESE) with a 15-year planning

anticipate a sustained increase in electricity

horizon. It also preserves the Clean Energy

demand over the coming years, which is why

Certificates mechanism and instructs SENER

CFE has announced significant investments

to publish strategies and programs within

in transmission, substations, and grid

the first year of each administration. “The

modernization. During 2024 and 2025, pilot

binding nature of PLADESE may sound like

microgrid projects in industrial parks multiplied,

a restriction, but it provides explicit clarity on

combining photovoltaic generation, storage,

where to advance. This openness to dialogue,

and advanced energy management systems.

even if some label it unilateral, is about finding

These solutions reduce interruptions, optimize

the ‘how-to’,” stated Alejandra Espinosa, Head

costs, and improve operational continuity, a

of Market Intelligence, ENGIE Mexico.

critical factor for nearshoring-linked sectors.

However, Espinosa highlighted a critical

The Gaps That Remain

upstream-downstream disconnect that corporate decision-makers face. “The challenge

Private companies face difficulties due to

is not only speed. Timing gaps can create

commercialization restrictions. They are

uncertainty for investment committees, making

limited in their capacity to offer basic supply,

it harder to approve projects. Strengthening

which directly impacts their business model.

dialogue can help turn stalled projects into

CFE’s exclusivity in this segment restricts

bankable opportunities. Right now, closing

opportunities for independent suppliers.

the loop on integrating supply while anchoring

Legislation also addresses distributed

it with an upstream PPA remains the most

generation and self-consumption: private

challenging part. Many of these realities

parties are authorized to generate their own

are simply not computing during corporate

electricity, but under strict rules. Surpluses

decision-making talks,” she stated

can only be sold to CFE, which reduces competitiveness and flexibility for private

PLADESE’s capacity addition targets are

generators in the market.

the clearest investment signal the Mexican electricity sector has produced in years. The

Gleb Kouznetsov, Energy Finance Director,

7.5GW mixed development framework, the

Bancomext, noted that while Mexico’s previous

associated tenders published by SENER and

regulatory setup was detailed, it had ceased

CFE, and PLADESE’s projection that peak

to serve the market six years ago. The current

demand will grow 50.6% by 2039 establish a

shift represents a viable change in trajectory,

planning context that private developers and

backed by highly capable personnel within the

13

regulatory bodies. However, from a project

concrete mechanisms are missing. “Another

finance perspective, bankability concerns

critical issue is clean energy traceability. It is

persist regarding the “Doomsday scenarios”

not currently being discussed in negotiations,

routinely evaluated by investment committees.

but for the end-user, it is paramount. Without clear traceability, corporate clients cannot

Kouznetsov outlined three critical structural

extract economic or ESG value from this

gaps causing uncertainty for lenders under

energy,” she added.

the new mixed investment schemes. First, the current guidelines fail to provide or foresee

The mixed investment structure, which

the mechanics of direct agreements, a

requires at least 54% state participation

departure from past market frameworks that

and restricts investors to Mexican legal

explicitly outlined lender step-in and credit

entities, has attracted the most scrutiny from

rights. This omission leaves banks without

international capital. The contractual terms

explicit legal clarity regarding their rights

governing cost sharing, return distribution,

over the physical asset or the transition of

d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g a u t h o r i t y, a n d ex i t

control if a project derails. Second, significant

mechanisms have not been fully published in

legal loopholes remain regarding contract

implementable form, leaving project finance

breaches, making it entirely unclear if

teams unable to complete the financial

financing banks retain the right to preserve

modeling that investment committees require

PPAs. Instead, the framework appears to

before committing capital.

grant CFE the exclusive power to select new vendors and sponsors during a restructuring

The reform has promoted a mixed investment

process, compromising traditional lender

scheme where CFE must hold a majority

protections. Third, the continuity of essential

stake in new projects. This implies that

generation and regulatory permits remains

private investors must adapt their strategies

vulnerable; under the current wording, these

to align with this requirement, which

authorizations risk reverting to CFE rather

could influence economic viability. For

than remaining tied to the asset’s equity or

infrastructure funds and development finance

being accessible to creditors.

institutions evaluating Mexico alongside other markets like Chile, Colombia, and Brazil,

Beyond these public-private joint ventures,

the mixed investment structure introduces a

Kouznetsov added that purely private

governance layer that peers do not require,

projects face their own steep commercial

and which needs to be priced into the return

h u r d l e s . U n l i ke t h e p a s t l a n d s c a p e

expectations on every transaction.

dominated by investment-grade Triple-B offtakers, financiers are navigating entirely

The integration of battery storage systems

new private supplier convocations where

(BESS) into the new framework is another

the first stones have not been laid, largely

area where the regulation has established

due to these protracted PPA negotiations

d i re c t i o n w i t h o u t f u l l y d e fi n i n g t h e

and a lack of precedent. “Transmission

implementation. The five BESS participation

development is a long-term process, but

modalities published in April 2026 create the

Mexico needs short-term solutions as well.

legal basis for storage investment, but the

Creating clearer market signals for energy

operational rules, dispatch instructions, and

services and battery storage could help

revenue recognition standards that financiers

strengthen grid reliability while attracting

need are still being developed alongside the

private investment,” Kouznetsov noted.

permitting framework.

Furthermore, the lack of market mechanisms

From Theory to Practice

for green attributes threatens corporate sustainability goals. Espinosa noted that the

The history of Mexico’s energy market

industry understands that power balance

since 2013 is a history of frameworks that

market adjustments are underway, but

were coherent on paper and incomplete in

14

execution. The 2013 reform opened a market

To successfully navigate these tighter

that functioned for several years before policy

timelines, the industry must look across the

reversal disrupted it. The 2025 reform has

complete development horizon. “We are in

learned from that experience in some ways,

a year of consolidation. The conversation

through the binding planning framework, the

cannot stop at generation; we must integrate

CFE majority requirement, and PLADESE as

the entire value chain and ensure energy

a public commitment, but has introduced its

reaches the end customer,” said Alfonso

own execution risks.

Campos, Commercial Director, COX Energy America. This requires integrated alignment

The most significant is the timeline. The tenders

from the initial generation right down to

SENER has published target construction

delivery. Qualified suppliers face an immediate

i n N ove m b e r 2 0 2 6 a n d co m m e rc i a l

operational push to effectively translate these

operation between 2028 and 2029. That

new market structures and wheel energy

is a compressed schedule for projects

directly to the commercial consumer.

that require social impact assessments, interconnection studies, permits, financing

The private sector participants who will

structures, and the resolution of contractual

navigate this successfully are those who treat

terms that are still being defined. Projects

the regulatory gaps not as obstacles but as

for the wholesale electricity market must,

the negotiating space where the durable

prior to construction, complete a social

terms of Mexico’s new energy market will

impact assessment, interconnection studies,

actually be set, and those who engage with

and permits. Each of those steps has its own

SENER, CFE, and Bancomext at the technical

regulatory calendar, and delays in any one of

level before tender terms are finalized rather

them compound downstream.

than after.

POWERING THE MANUFACTURING AND DATA CENTER BOOM The Mexican Association of Data Centers

of energy and the capacity of the existing

(MEXDC) reported that national operational

transmission infrastructure,” said Sánchez

capacity reached 279MW in April 2026. This

during Mexico Energy Forum 2026. He noted

exponential growth continues to outpace the

that rising capital expenditures are driven by

transmission capacity of the national electric

mandatory investments in private substations

grid, forcing private enterprise to finance

and on-site generation systems.

independent energy infrastructure. Private infrastructure development has become

The structural deficit stems from an

mandatory for market participants seeking

accelerating nearshoring cycle. Foreign direct

to maintain strict up-time agreements. Héctor

investment into Mexico exceeded US$36

Sánchez, Director, IBX Operations, Equinix,

billion in 2023, driven by manufacturing

says that historical approaches to digital real

relocations and facility expansions seeking

estate development are no longer viable.

proximity to the US market. However, the Bajio corridor, Nuevo Leon, and northern

“The first thing that developers must evaluate

border states absorb industrial demand at a

before purchasing land is the availability

pace that the national grid was not designed to serve. Over 60% of the transmission

“Organizations cannot wait for grid expansions, so they must invest in temporary power, gas-powered generation, solar arrays, and hybrid energy storage systems”

network operates near maximum capacity, with critical bottlenecks concentrated in high-demand corridors.

In May 2024, grid reserve margins fell to

Jakub Holecek

approximately 3%, below the regulatory

Business Development Manager Data Centers | Aggreko

minimum of 6% required for stable operations.

National manufacturing losses during major

15

outages reach an estimated US$200 million

Luis Lugo, Country Head Mexico, CloudHQ,

per hour, while the Jalisco industrial corridor

highlighted that data center developers now

alone suffered from US$12 million to US$15

operate like dowsers searching for energy

million in losses.

lines because traditional industrial parks lack sufficient power density. Historical

A data center requiring 40MW of constant

a l l o c a t i o n s o f 2 5 0 k W/ h a h ave b e e n

supply cannot operate in a zone with frequent

replaced by multi-megawatt requirements

grid emergencies, directly threatening Mexico’s

driven by aerospace, automotive, and

ability to capture capital-intensive nearshoring

artificial intelligence technologies.

segments. For hyperscale operators, uptime is a contractual obligation; a facility that cannot

Lugo adds that the regulatory approval

guarantee 99.999% availability cannot compete

timeline via the utility takes nearly 14

for high-return workloads.

months before purchasing a transformer, projects face massive deployment delays

Capital Escalation and Private Infrastructure Investment Arturo Bravo, Honorary Advisor, MEXDC,

and compounded supply chain bottlenecks.

Decentralized Generation and Regional Competitive Risks

said that the trajectory requires massive capitalization. The market expanded from

For operators with smaller power

115.5MW in 2024 to 235MW in 2025, reaching

requirements, on-site generation has become

279MW in 2026. Projections indicate that

the standard alternative to grid connection

the industry expects to attract US$20 billion

delays. Jakub Holecek, Business Development

in direct investment and US$61 billion in

Manager Data Centers, Aggreko, said that

indirect investment, expanding total capacity

when capacity is unavailable, companies

to 1.7GW by 2031. Investment from 2025 to

must deploy decentralized solutions.

2030 is set to reach US$18 billion, adding 80 to 90 data centers.

“ O rg a n i z at i o n s c a n n o t wa i t fo r g r i d expansions, so they must invest in temporary

This rapid scaling faces a declining public

power, gas-powered generation, solar

investment landscape. CFE’s budget

arrays, and hybrid energy storage systems,”

allocated for 2026 is 16.7% lower in real terms

said Holecek. Although on-site generation

than 2025, meaning less public investment is

increases operational costs per megawatt-

available precisely when the generation gap

hour and redirects capital, it remains the

is widest. Consequently, hyperscale operators

only method to ensure continuity. Holecek

are building the infrastructure that the public

noted that the adoption of lithium-ion energy

utility does not provide.

storage and peak-shaving strategies is

16

accelerating among large-scale users seeking

Colombia announced 1.2GW of dedicated

energy sovereignty.

capacity in 2025, and Chile established a regulatory fast-track framework.

Queretaro concentrates the highest volume of digital infrastructure development in Mexico,

Because data center investment decisions

accounting for 15% of facilities nationwide with

operate on 12-month to 18-month cycles,

an installed capacity of 200MW. The MEXDC

Mexico must resolve transmission bottlenecks

projects that the state will concentrate 69%

to preserve its advantage under USMCA.

of the operational megawatts in the country

Additionally, corporate sustainability

by 2030. Currently, the Queretaro Energy

commitments require renewable generation,

Agency reports 18 operating data centers with

which remains intermittent in the local market.

outstanding grid requests for 540MW. While CFE announced an US$8.2 billion The projected national capacity of 1,516MW

transmission expansion plan running from

by 2030 is equivalent to the entire current

2025 to 2030, targeting northern corridors

electrical demand of Queretaro, creating risks

with 58 projects across 25 states during 2026

that future investments may be diverted to

and 2027, the timeline remains the primary

competing regional hubs. For instance,

tension for industrial operators.

NATURAL GAS SUPPLY, STORAGE, SECURITY, AND INVESTMENT The Mexican government announced

imported between 69% and 75% of its dry gas

investments of MX$140.9 billion (US$8.1

consumption between 2020 and 2024.

billion) by 2030 to modernize, maintain and expand natural gas pipelines across

“Most of the natural gas that Mexico consumes

the country. The scale is historically

is imported, and over the next 15 years it will

unprecedented for Mexico’s gas sector. CFE

remain a highly competitive commodity. But

Director General Emilia Calleja confirmed that

having pipelines is not enough, we need to

nine new CFE pipelines will concentrate 38%

know that gas will be available exactly when

of the total investment, designed specifically

it is needed. Europe and the United States

to feed 13 new combined-cycle power plants

already have over 100GW of storage capacity.

adding nearly 8,000MW of capacity between

Mexico sits at 2.8GW. We need to close that

2026 and 2027, seven of which are scheduled

gap. Infrastructure connectivity and storage

to enter operation this year alone.

are not the same thing, and confusing the

The Libramiento Reynosa pipeline, one of

alternatives, not just pipes but the capacity

the most strategically critical projects in

to absorb disruption when supply chains

the portfolio, is already 99.21% complete

fail,” said Juan Paulo Cervantes, Commercial

and scheduled for inauguration in June

Director, Solensa.

two leaves us exposed. Resilience requires

2026, connecting SISTRANGAS to the Texas Eastern Transmission Pipeline Company and

CENAGAS Director General Cuitláhuac

Tennessee Gas Pipeline and increasing gas

García has noted that 70% of the electricity

supply to northern Mexico. For an energy

consumed in Mexico is generated through

community that has watched storage and

natural gas, a dependency that makes

pipeline commitments dissolve for the better

pipeline reliability a first-order grid security

part of a decade, the pace is notable.

issue, not merely a fuel supply matter. When CENACE issued an operational alert in early

However, Mexico imported 6.63Bcf/d of

May as heat drove demand past 48,000MW,

natural gas via pipelines from the United States

the adequacy of the gas supply network

in 2025. Imports of dry gas have consistently

feeding Mexico’s combined-cycle fleet moved

increased over the past decades, as domestic

from a medium-term planning concern to an

dry-gas output has generally declined. Mexico

immediate operational priority.

17

T h e U S $ 8 .1 b i l l i o n i n ve s t m e n t p l a n

The gap between infrastructure ambition

addresses the transmission and distribution

and operational reality has forced Mexico’s

layer of this problem. It does not address

industrial sector to improvise. The near-term

the source. Wood Mackenzie forecast

solution for companies that cannot wait for

that Mexico’s dry gas production would

pipeline connections or storage facilities

dip modestly to 2.299Bcf/d in 2026, from

has been small-scale LNG: trucks delivering

2.302Bcf/d in 2025. Domestic production,

liquefied natural gas to industrial sites that

in other words, is not growing and the

are not connected to the network, or that

new pipelines being built will carry more

need supply security the pipeline system

imported US gas, not less.

cannot guarantee.

“Beyond the immediate challenges of supply

“The question companies are not asking

and storage, the central task is building

loudly enough is: what happens when my

an energy system that is truly integral,

operations go down? We are no longer

resilient, and designed with a long-term

talking about delays of a few hours,

horizon. Current national demand levels

disruptions now last days, sometimes

make that urgency undeniable. The path

up to two weeks, and the cost impact is

forward has three pillars: expanding and

significant. Energy has become a strategic

strengthening storage capacity, reinforcing

asset, not a utility. Industrial parks are

distribution and infrastructure networks,

already advertising reliable energy supply

and developing domestic production. These

as a competitive differentiator. If you locate

are not independent priorities, they have

in a facility without secure energy, you are

to be built together if Mexico is going to

not just taking an operational risk, you are

have a gas sector capable of supporting the

locking up capital with no return. That is

industrial growth the country is committing

not a risk any serious operation should

to,” said Jorge Sandoval, Director General,

be willing to take,” said Diego Pecoraro,

Mexican Natural Gas Association (AMGN).

Director of Infrastructure and Capital Projects, Alvarez & Marsal.

In March 2018, Mexico’s Energy Ministry published a gas storage policy calling

CENAGAS has planned to hire small-scale

for 45Bcf of strategic inventories to be

liquefied natural gas companies to manage

operational by 2026. Nothing materialized.

peak shaving and provide a supply buffer, a

David Madero, the moderator of this panel

pragmatic acknowledgment that the formal

and former head of CENAGAS, highlighted

infrastructure timeline and the industrial

that strategic storage plans had been in

demand timeline are not aligned. Companies

place for years, but nothing advanced

like Solensa, which built Mexico’s first LNG

from them.

liquefaction facility, represent a commercially

18

or tariff applied to cross-border gas flows would have immediate consequences for electricity generation, industrial production, and the nearshoring investment thesis that Mexico has built its economic strategy around.

In this context, the concepts of energy sovereignty and energy self-sufficiency, pillars of Mexico’s energy policy, lack a solid foundation, as one industry analyst observed. The investment plan announced in May 2026 is a response to this reality.

Whether it is a sufficient one depends on answers that go beyond pipeline kilometers and billion-peso commitments. driven response to a structural gap that government investment plans have not

The Infrastructure Investment Plan for

yet closed.

Development with Well-Being 2026–2030 includes energy among its eight strategic

“Sixty percent of natural gas consumption

sectors for public and mixed investment

in Mexico goes directly toward power

programs totaling MX$5.6 trillion. Within this

g e n e ra t i o n , w h i c h m e a n s i m p rov i n g

plan, gas transport and related infrastructure

competitiveness in this sector is not just about

are seen as priority components supporting

one link in the chain, it touches everything.

industrial growth, power generation, and

On infrastructure, there is real reluctance to

supply security.

invest because last-mile delivery costs can be prohibitively high. The demand is there, many

Underground storage, distributed LNG

industrial users want pipeline gas and simply

networks, and biomethane infrastructure

cannot access it. So, in the absence of better

all require private participation, long-term

options, some are investing in their own

regulatory frameworks, and returns that

last-mile infrastructure just to secure supply.

pencil against a backdrop of price uncertainty

That should not be necessary. It signals a

and an evolving energy law. The March 2025

structural gap that the market alone is not

LESE reform, which restructured the rules

going to solve,” said Guadalupe Paredes,

governing private energy investment, has

CEO, Luxem Energía.

not yet produced the regulatory clarity that infrastructure financiers need to commit to

The question of whether this constitutes a viable long-term strategy or a temporary fix that delays the harder conversation about demand-side flexibility, interruptible contracts, and distributed gas production is one the sector has not fully answered.

The Geopolitical Dimension Mexico’s gas dependency on the United States has always been a commercial issue but it is becoming a geopolitical one. The USMCA renegotiation has placed energy squarely on the trade agenda, and US negotiators are well aware that Mexico’s power grid runs on American gas. Any disruption, politicization,

assets with 20-to-30-year payback horizons.

19

BEYOND SOLAR—THE BESS REVOLUTION For years, developers, lenders, and industrial

The regulatory moment arrived against a

energy users interested in battery storage

backdrop of ambitious planning commitments

systems (BESS) in Mexico faced a version of

that now have legal infrastructure behind

the same problem: the technology worked,

them. The PLADESE, published in October

the economics were improving, but the legal

2025, establishes binding planning targets

architecture was missing. Injecting stored

including approximately 6GW of battery

energy into the grid lived in a regulatory

storage by 2030. The first major renewable

grey zone that drove up insurance costs,

tender, launched in October 2025, offered

complicated power purchase agreements,

5.9GW of renewable capacity with a

and made project financing structurally

requirement to incorporate storage equivalent

difficult. Revenue stacking, combining

to at least 25% of installed capacity. Its

income from energy arbitrage, frequency

resolution, published in December, awarded

regulation, and capacity, was technically

3.3GW of renewables and 1.5GW of batteries,

possible but commercially unmonetizable

approximately 55% of the volume offered.

because no contract recognized those flows.

Against a base of installed BESS capacity that remains a small fraction of that target.

The regulatory framework is a necessary

“Large-scale energy projects depend on

condition for reaching that number.

long-term supply certainty. To unlock greater investment in storage and distributed

However, market players emphasize that a

generation, Mexico should explore

written framework is only the starting point.

government guarantee programs and

“The fact that a regulatory framework exists

financing mechanisms that reduce

does not necessarily mean that a market

borrowing costs

exists,” cautioned Andrea Lozano, Director

and improve access to credit”

General, BID Energy. “It is up to us to build

Humbert García

that market so the industry can improve its

CEO | Kiin Energy

capacity in storage matters. One thing is what is written on paper, and another is what can actually work in reality,” she stressed.

That changed in two ways. On March 17,

An Unexpected Bottleneck

2026, the CNE published in the Official Gazette a new model contract governing

Global supply chains for high-voltage

the interconnection and connection of power

electrical equipment have been under

plants, energy storage systems, and load

sustained pressure since 2022, driven by

centers to the National Transmission Network.

concurrent grid modernization programs

This is the first regulation to formally and

across Europe, North America, and Asia.

explicitly incorporate battery energy storage

But the timing creates a specific challenge

systems as a legal subject within Mexico’s

for Mexico: the regulatory framework that

national electricity framework. Six weeks later,

was supposed to unlock investment arrived

the CNE published the first comprehensive

precisely when the physical components

regulatory framework for the integration,

needed to execute that investment are

operation, and market participation of

hardest to source.

battery energy storage systems, defining five participation modalities: associated with

Once components are secured, navigating

power plants, load centers, self-consumption,

the regulatory approval process introduces

transmission and distribution infrastructure,

major timeline volatility.

and standalone, with clear rules on studies, permits, metering, transitional offers,

Casiopea Ramírez, Partner, Fresh Energy

and tariffs.

Consulting, pointed out that project

20

closure calendars are highly dependent on

of approximately MX$100,000/MW, and the

visibility regarding necessary permits. While

fixing of contract prices as unique, fixed, and

authorities face technical requirements that

invariable for the entire contract duration,

demand rapid assessment, that specific

introduces rigidities that affect project

streamlined pathway is currently missing a

economics. The legal acts and guarantees

standardized execution process under the

rest entirely with the private developer, with

regulation, leaving developers exposed to

no shared responsibility from CENACE, a risk

unpredictable, uncontrolled bureaucratic

allocation that shapes the return profile every

demands. “Whether closing a specific project

lender and equity investor will price.

at a large or small scale, it depends heavily on the visibility you have regarding the permits

Financing structures are also heavily split

you need to obtain,” she added.

between large-scale and on-site projects.

Humberto García, CEO of Kiin Energy,

Ramírez said that, although the rules

explained that for utility-scale projects, banks

consider several cases where only a rapid

must clear the source of payment. Under the

study is required, there is a minor detail: a

current rules, energy will be integrated into

standardized procedure for how that rapid

the market, but if projects are fully subjected

study is conducted does not exist. Instead,

to spot market volatility, financial institutions

CENACE evaluates under new rules where

will view them as lacking a secure payment

everything is subject to expenses demanding

stream. Conversely, on-site storage aimed

additional protection system impact studies,

at peak shaving offers a clear, predictable

and all this permits-related uncertainty

source of payment over time through existing

impacts the project closure calendar and

legal instruments in Mexico, making credit

commercial operation dates. “Once you

implementation much more viable.

have sorted out that issue, and you are clear on the product types and volumes, project

To bridge this financial gap, García Handal

implementation is extremely fast; if CENACE

suggested a concrete intervention: “Large-

publishes the contracts and they can receive

scale energy projects depend on long-term

feedback from banks and technology

supply certainty. To unlock greater investment

providers, it could serve as a trigger to scale

in storage and distributed generation, Mexico

these projects,” she stressed.

should explore government guarantee programs and financing mechanisms that

The new framework also introduces financial

reduce borrowing costs and improve access

rigidities that some analysts flag as bancability

to credit.” He noted that a very significant

constraints. The requirement for guarantees

percentage of a project’s business currently

21

goes to the financial sector due to high

early success stories to attract investment

interest rates, preventing private actors from

funds. Furthermore, industrial adoption

capturing full benefits.

faces an educational hurdle; many end-users suffer from a misunderstanding of project

Framework Hits and Misses

economics, viewing batteries as an extra cost rather than a cost-reduction tool that is

The most consequential element of the new

destined to follow the same downward price

regulation for the storage sector is that BESS

curve previously witnessed with solar panels.

has acquired its own regulatory identity, separate from generation, a structural change

Operational rules are similarly vital for asset

in how storage participates in the market.

preservation and technical bankability.

That distinction matters for permitting, for

“Batteries are fundamentally a flexibility

metering, for market offers, and for how

solution. While Mexico has established

projects are classified in financial structures.

a regulatory framework, the next step is updating the technical standards and grid

What it does not resolve is the operational

requirements needed to unlock the full

certainty question that developers flag as

value of energy storage,” said Raúl Gutiérrez,

the real determinant of project viability.

Sales Manager Power Conversion Solutions

The regulation addresses permits and

LATAM, Hitachi Energy. Gutiérrez warned that

interconnection with notable clarity. It is

secondary technical documents, including

less explicit on dispatch rules, curtailment

the Grid Code, must be updated to treat

treatment, and the revenue certainty that

storage as a holistic system rather than just

project finance requires over a 15-to-20-year

a standalone battery, noting that a battery

horizon. A permit framework and a bankable

does not integrate power directly into the

revenue model are not the same document.

grid without its full conversion components.

Operational certainty and broader ecosystem

F ro m a l e n d e r ’s p e r s p e c t i ve , a s s e t

alignment remain the true determinants

degradation over a 20-year horizon makes

of project viability, proving that a permit

technical guarantees critical. Developers

framework and a bankable revenue model are

must present fully understood technical

not the same document. Juan Acra, President,

solutions to financial institutions. “If the

Mexican Energy Council (COMENER),

battery was designed for a specific use case

emphasized that regulatory updates alone

and the owner has no control over how the

cannot drive the market forward without

asset is actually operated, it will not achieve

parallel advancements in financing structures,

its intended lifespan,” Gutiérrez explained.

local technical alignment, and cross-industry education. He pointed out that while

The comparison to Mexico’s solar experience

Mexico possesses world-class technical

is one the storage industry would do well to

talent, the storage sector must actively

take seriously. Mexico’s solar sector went

unite its fragmented capabilities and build

through its own regulatory inflection point

a solid portfolio of early success stories to

in the early 2010s, followed by a period

comfortably attract international capital and

of rapid capacity additions, followed by a

clear strict institutional lending criteria.

policy reversal that left projects stranded, contracts disputed, and investor confidence

To clear increasingly strict institutional

damaged in ways that took years to repair.

lending criteria for these capital-intensive

The sequence, regulatory opening, rapid

projects, Acra noted that Mexico must send

scaling, absorption crisis, is not inevitable,

better signals to international markets. While

but it is a documented pattern.

the country boasts an unparalleled workforce of technicians and developers, the storage

The decisions in question span several

sector needs to unite these fragmented

dimensions simultaneously: whether

capabilities and build a solid portfolio of

domestic banks develop BESS underwriting

22

capacity before the project pipeline outpaces

the institutional relationships between

their ability to finance it; whether the

developers, CENACE, and the CNE mature

industry builds standards and certification

fast enough to handle the operational

infrastructure before a safety incident

complexity that gigawatt-scale storage

creates a political backlash; and whether

deployment will introduce.

ESG IN ENERGY: ACHIEVING DECARBONIZATION THROUGH GOOD PRACTICES ESG disclosures have transitioned from

NDC 3.0, mandates that national emissions

voluntary communications into strict legal

must peak by 2027, with 70% of new power

obligations with significant financial and

capacity derived from renewable sources

regulatory consequences for the entire

between 2025 and 2030.

energy sector. This regulatory evolution stems from the implementation of international

This commitment impacts the industrial

accounting standards that treat climate

sector, which generates approximately

risks as material financial indicators. Israel

18% of national emissions. Hard-to-abate

Hurtado, President, H2Mexico noted that

segments, including power generation,

the primary corporate objective is evaluating

gas distribution, and cogeneration, carry

“what separates an organization that uses

t h e h e av i e st d e c a r b o n i z at i o n l o a d s .

ESG as a strategic lever from one that uses

Cogeneration is an explicit pathway for

it as a reputational shield.”

Scope 1 reductions, yet adoption remains low due to grid interconnection rules and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the new

“A company that submits its investments

LESE framework.

to analyze if they reduce emissions, bring energy savings, or protect against input price volatility is a company truly

Operational Realities and DataDriven Governance in Mexico

concerned with carbon”

Daniel Salazar President | COGENERA MÉXICO

The structural challenge for the Mexican energy sector lies in the reality that the gap between traditional reporting and new regulatory standards represents a governance issue rather than a formatting

In January 2025, Mexico became the

p ro b l e m . H i s t o r i c a l l y, s u s t a i n a b i l i t y

first nation in North America to mandate

functions in Mexican energy corporations

sustainability reporting through a dual

resided

framework: IFRS S1 and IFRS S2 for public

departments instead of finance or strategy

issuers listed on Mexican stock exchanges,

teams. Consequently, sustainability targets

and the Sustainability Information Norms,

have been established without verified

known as NIS, for private companies. Non-

baseline data, and supply chain emissions

compliance with the 2026 reports, based

under Scope 3 remain unmeasured.

within

communications

on fiscal year 2025 data, risks severe penalties including fines, administrative

Addressing these deficiencies requires

arrest, and closures. External auditor

empirical metrics. Eugenio Grandio, President,

assurance of the NIS requirements will be

EMA emphasizes that precise data collection

mandatory beginning in 2027, establishing

is the foundational element for operational

this year’s reports as the baseline for future

adjustments over environmental narratives.

audited disclosures.

“If we want to make it a matter of real change, S i m u l t a n e o u s l y, M ex i co ’s N a t i o n a l l y

we have to arrive at information and data,”

Determined Contributions framework,

says Grandio, noting that the association

23

conducted extensive censuses to track charging infrastructure, connector types,

Global Energy Market Projections and Financial Integration

and energy consumption. Grandio adds that even though electric vehicles represent only

Global market realities confirm that deep

3% of market sales, accurate data allows

decarbonization requires drastic strategic

corporations to calculate emission reductions

adjustments. Original research conducted

and air quality improvements.

by bp in its annual energy outlook indicates that maintaining current policies would only

Industrial decarbonization also requires

reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 25% by

active consumer participation. Daniel Salazar,

2050, whereas achieving net-zero targets

President, COGENERA MEXICO, argues that

requires a 95% reduction.

because natural gas powers 60% of Mexican electricity generation, decarbonization

Selene González, Communications Director,

responsibilities extend beyond public utilities

bp, notes the organization has published

to end users.

this analysis since the year 2000 to project trajectories through 2050. “In the next

“A company that submits its investments

10 years, oil remains fundamental,” says

to analyze if they reduce emissions, bring

González, clarifying that global demand will

energy savings, or protect against input

hover between 85MMb/d and 100MMb/d by

price volatility is a company truly concerned

2035 due to petrochemical requirements.

with carbon,” says Salazar. Proper corporate

To navigate this reality, González states that

governance requires dedicated investment

bp utilizes advanced technology to reduce

committees to oversee these allocations

operational emissions by 37% compared to

and align technical personnel with corporate

2019 baselines.

climate strategies.

The integration of ESG into corporate finance Regulatory compliance further demands

represents a permanent structural shift. José

organizational alignment. Javier García,

Pablo Rinkenbach, Executive Director of Asset

Director General, CONUEE highlights

Management and ESG, AINDA, stresses that

that governance transcends standard

international accounting systems have spent 25

administrative frameworks and requires

years forcing corporations to disclose long-term

genuine institutional commitment. Under

liabilities on balance sheets. Recent mandates

national energy planning laws, major consumers

apply this financial rigor to environmental and

and suppliers must report consumption metrics

social impacts, meaning compliance directly

and energy-saving measures.

affects corporate valuations.

24

“This is no longer optional; it is a matter of

Experts conclude that financial metrics are

what you submit to the stock exchange,” says

the ultimate drivers of corporate behavior,

Pablo, highlighting that AINDA manages highly

rendering traditional sustainability

rated infrastructure assets, such as a highway

brochures completely obsolete as

in Tuxtla and Tlaxcala, and maintains low gas

institutional investors integrate ESG

flaring rates through strict asset management.

screening into capital allocation frameworks.

WHAT IS THE NEXT FRONTIER IN SOLAR?

Mexico’s solar energy market’s growth is

quietly repricing solar project risk in ways the

anchored by President Sheinbaum’s 45%

industry has not fully absorbed.

clean power target for 2030, a resource base that covers 85% of national territory with high

The Wholesale Market Problem

irradiance, and a regulatory regime that keeps private-sector pathways open even as CFE

Mexico’s wholesale electricity market,

maintains a dominant generation share. The

designed in 2014 and restructured in 2025

capital is interested and the policy framework,

under the LESE, was not built for a system in

for the first time in years, is legible.

which solar represents a meaningful share of total generation. At high penetration levels,

“There is no question that the public sector is

solar creates predictable patterns of daytime

backing renewables, this is a new paradigm.

price suppression and evening price spikes

We are seeing tenders that explicitly prioritize

that erode the economics of standalone solar

clean energy, and AI is opening the door to

projects while creating value for dispatchable

better, faster questions across the industry,”

generation and storage. The phenomenon is

said Lilia Alonzo, Partner, Aurea Partners.

well documented in mature solar markets like those of California, Spain, and Chile, and

The sector’s maturation is producing a

Mexico is beginning to encounter its early-

set of tensions that were invisible when

stage version.

solar was a niche technology competing on cost alone. Three are now structurally

Curtailment reduces delivered volumes and

significant: the design of Mexico’s wholesale

decreases profits. Because fixed operating

electricity market, the evolution of corporate

and financing costs stay constant while

PPA structures under buyer pressure that

production drops, margins are reduced,

is increasingly difficult to satisfy with

impacting liquidity. Persistent curtailment

intermittent generation, and a global

can lower project valuations. For developers

financing and insurance environment that is

using nodes with high congestion probability,

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a risk that is difficult to assess precisely at the

expected to begin in November 2026, with

time of investment, curtailment exposure is a

projects entering commercial operation

financial risk that project finance lenders are

between 2028 and 2029.

now pricing explicitly.

Timing is a challenge, however. “When A single substation bottleneck can raise

tenders are announced, companies have just

delivery risk for new offtakers. The geographic

40 days to submit documentation and many

concentration of Mexico’s installed solar

struggle because financing decisions cannot

capacity in the north and the Bajio, combined

move that fast. The real success of mixed-

with demand growth driven by nearshoring

investment models will depend on how well

manufacturing and datacenter investment

the commercial structure is designed from

in central Mexico and Queretaro, means that

day one,” said Daniel García, Commercial

the misalignment between where solar is

Director, Atlas Renewable Energy.

cheapest to build and where industrial buyers need energy is growing rather than shrinking.

The implications for market structure are significant. A 25-year PPA with CFE as

CFE PPA: A Market Reshaping Event

offtaker is the most bankable structure available in Mexico’s solar market: it offers

Mexico has formally launched a public-private

the long-term revenue certainty that project

investment framework aimed at adding

finance requires and eliminates the corporate

7.5GW of renewable capacity by 2030. At

counterparty risk that makes shorter-duration

the core of the model are power purchase

private PPAs harder to finance. But the entry

agreements of up to 25 years, under which

requirements, proven experience, ready-to-

CFE acts as the offtaker for most electricity

build project status, and financial capacity to

generated, purchasing 70% of output under

absorb contingency costs, effectively screen

long-term contracts. Private investors provide

out smaller developers and new entrants.

100% of the equity capital and undertake construction, while CFE contributes land,

Outside the CFE framework, Mexico’s corporate

permitting management, project operation,

PPA market faces its own set of pressures that

and grid integration. The resulting ownership

mirror a global trend. Global offsite corporate

structure allocates 54% to CFE and 46% to

PPA deals totaled approximately 55.9GW

the private partner.

across 712 agreements in 2025, down about 10% from the 2024 record, ending a growth streak that began in 2016. The drivers of the

“There is no question that the public sector

global pullback are relevant to Mexico: grid

is backing renewables, this is a new

congestion and curtailment risk eroding

paradigm. We are seeing tenders that

financial logic for standalone solar and wind,

explicitly prioritize clean energy, and AI

interconnection delays extending project

is opening the door to better, faster

timelines, and complex contract structures that

questions across the industry”

most mid-size buyers do not have the internal

Lilia Alonzo

expertise to evaluate.

Partner| Aurea Partners

In Mexico industrial buyers are demanding contract terms that the solar market is struggling to deliver. The requirement for The tender process includes evaluation

firm, reliable energy supply at a predictable

criteria, with emphasis on proven experience

price over a 10-to-15-year horizon is difficult

in renewable energy and energy storage

to satisfy with intermittent generation alone.

projects, technical and financial capacity,

Buyers are asking for curtailment protections,

project maturity, corporate governance

backup supply provisions, and delivery

structure, and ability to absorb additional

guarantees that fundamentally change the

risks and contingency costs. Construction is

risk profile of the contract for the developer.

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The result is a widening gap between what buyers want to sign and what developers can bankably offer. Contracts are getting shorter, price escalation clauses are becoming more complex, and some deals are falling through not because the economics are wrong but because the risk allocation cannot be agreed.

The market is searching for structures, be them hybrid solar-plus-storage, virtual PPAs,

Mexico’s energy regulatory history since 2018

or aggregated multi-site agreements, that

has given lenders reason to price that risk at a

can bridge this gap, but those structures

level they would not have considered in 2015.

are more expensive to develop and require capabilities that not every developer in

The insurance dimension is less discussed but

Mexico currently has.

equally real. Global insurers have tightened solar project coverage in response to severe

“The evolution of the market is clear.

convective storm losses that drove record

Buyers are becoming more sophisticated

insured losses in 2025. Premium increases

and incorporating technologies such

and coverage restrictions are now appearing

as bat te ry storage i n to th e i r e n e rg y

in Mexican solar project budgets at a level

strategies. The remaining challenge is legal

that affects project IRR, and some projects in

certainty, which remains a critical factor

hailstorm-prone regions of northern Mexico

for long-term agreements and investment

are facing coverage gaps that complicate

decisions,” said Javier Salinas, Sr. Sales

lender requirements.

Manager LATAM, NextPower.

How Is the Industry Faring?

“Storage is now part of the regulatory framework; it is not perfect, but it is there,

“We are still in a transition moment. There

and that is a big deal. Mexico does not have

are no concrete cases yet that prove the new

an energy problem; it has a power availability

regulatory framework fully works. Compared

problem at critical hours and locations.

to countries with 10 years of experience

Storage solves that immediately for grid

where everything flows smoothly, Mexico

stability,” said Alejandro Fajer, CEO, Quartux.

still has a way to go, but we are moving in the right direction,” said Luis Felipe Vélez,

The Financing Aspect

Director General, Atera Energy.

The solar project financing environment in

“The companies willing to take on risk right

2026 is meaningfully different from 2022,

now, even when not everything is clear, are the

and the change is not entirely captured in

ones that will benefit the most. Every contract

interest rates. Lenders to solar projects are

won helps institutionalize these new processes

pricing risks that were previously treated as

and builds the foundation others will follow,”

immaterial: transmission node congestion and

said Ian De La Garza, CEO, Finsolar.

curtailment probability, insurance premium inflation driven by extreme weather losses,

The developers and buyers who will close

and the residual value uncertainty introduced

transactions in this environment are those who

by regulatory frameworks that have changed

engage with these risks explicitly, who model

twice in five years.

curtailment probability by node, structure insurance coverage before financial close

P o l i c y u n ce r t a i n t y m a t te r s b e c a u s e

rather than after, and design contracts with risk

curtailment and access terms can shift faster

allocations that reflect actual project exposure

than contract cycles. For a 25-year solar

rather than market convention from five years

asset, regulatory stability is not a nice-to-

ago. That is the capability gap the Mexican

have but a direct input into the discount rate.

solar sector is now being asked to close.

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