September 2026
The Future of Housing Demand
Table of Contents Forecasting the Future: The Central Arkansas Housing Outlook......................................................... 1 Centerstone in Conway............................................................................................................................. 3 Central Arkansas Population 2026.......................................................................................................... 4 Population Change.................................................................................................................................... 5 Housing Yesterday and Today.................................................................................................................. 6 The Recent Housing Construction Trend............................................................................................... 8 2026 Demographic Outlook...................................................................................................................10 Statistical Supplement.............................................................................................................................11
About Metroplan
About CARTS
Metroplan is a voluntary association of local governments that has operated by interlocal agreement since 1955. Metroplan now has members in five counties of the six-county metro area. Metroplan is the designated metropolitan planning organization (MPO) under Title 23 of the United States Code.
The Central Arkansas Regional Transportation Study, or CARTS, is the cooperative effort by the participating communities, transportation providers, and many other interested parties to develop a long-range transportation plan for the metropolitan area.
Metroplan serves as the regional voice on issues affecting Central Arkansas, develops transportation plans required by federal law, convenes stakeholders to deal with common environmental issues, and provides information and staff resources to our member local governments, the business community and the public. As part of that mission, Metroplan publishes Metrotrends twice yearly. The spring/ summer edition is normally the Demographic Review and Outlook and the fall/winter edition is the Economic Review and Outlook.
Metroplan’s Demographic Review and Outlook is an annual chronicle providing demographic and housing data and insight for the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway MSA. Prepared by: Jonathan Lupton—research, writing and editing Lynn Bell—graphics, layout, and editing Photographs by Metroplan staff except where noted. Cover image by iStockphoto.com
ii | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK
This report was funded in part through grant(s) from the Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Notice of Nondiscrimination: https://tinyurl.com/yrp24d8a
METROTRENDS
Forecasting the Future The Central Arkansas Housing Outlook
W
hen we quizzed a local developer about the regional housing market’s shortterm future, he gave us a revealing laugh. That’s the secret of the business. Every decision is a guess; every new project a gamble.
Housing market growth is driven by household formations—the change in housing units due to demographic change and economic factors.
We can nonetheless build a forecast, based on trends and data. Central Arkansas continues building homes and apartments. Finance markets are the constraining factor. In the pandemic years 2020 and 2021, many buyers took advantage of super-low interest rates to snatch up homes. Some of them may now want to trade up, but are reluctant since any new home purchase would lock them into higher rates. This circumstance challenges first-time buyers trying to crack into housing markets. In the longer run though, demographics shape housing demand. Housing market growth is driven by household formations—the change in housing units due to demographic
change and economic factors. When a young person climbs the income ladder and leaves parents to set up a first apartment, that is a “household formation.” Separations, divorces, and other lifestyle changes also create new households. There are negative flows too, when an elder adult dies or moves into a nursing home—technically “group quarters.” Migration is constantly adding and subtracting households, too.
Metroplan’s forecasts can help with querying the future. Central Arkansas saw 15,300 new households formed from 2020 to 2025, a net gain over the previous 2015–2020 period. Metroplan’s demographic forecast attempts to predict the future, based on known demographic trends like births, deaths, and migration. Based on these trends, we forecast 15,800 new housing units will be added from 2025 to 2030, with “high” and “low” forecasts depending on varying economic and demographic changes. Since the Central Charts_p1_revised.xlsx Arkansas region has a track record for steady, reliable growth this casts a vote for the middle path. Formations ForecastHousehold Scenarios for Household Formations 2025High 21,300 2030 Formations 2025–2030 Forecast Scenarios for Household Middle / Chosen Low
15,800 10,500
Low
Middle / Chosen
10,500
15,800
Charts_p1_revised_v2.xlsx
High
21,300
HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS IN0 CENTRAL 5,000 10,000 ARKANSAS
Ward in Lonoke County has added over 500 new single-family homes since 2020.
15,000
20,000
25,000
Household Formations 2010–2025 with Forecast for 2040 Trend Chosen Forecast 2010-2015 13,100 2015-2020 13,100 2020-2025 15,300 15,800 2025-2030 15,80015,300 13,100 13,100 12,100 10,700 2030-2035 12,100
2035-2040 2010-2015
10,700 2015-2020
2020-2025
Trend
METROTRENDS
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
Chosen Forecast
2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK | 1 HH_Scenarios
Forecast 2060 for Central Arkansas The charts below give a summary of Metroplan’s newest population forecast for Central Arkansas out to the year 2060 with three alternatives for the future. The “Chosen” (or middle) forecast assumes that regional in-migration will continue at the pace from 1990 through 2024. The “High” option depends on migration rates from 1990 to 2010, a period of fast growth in Central Arkansas. The “Low” scenario uses migration rates from the period 2010 to 2020 when in-migration to the region ran slowly. Figures can be1990-2010 found on page 12. 1990-2024 2010-15 CentralG1b ArkansasB1b Population C1bTrend Alternatives Chosen
High
Low
Central Arkansas Population Trend Alternatives Known Forecast Forecast Forecast
Known
Little Rock MSA Births 1990-2024 With Forecast to
Chosen Forecast
Low Forecast
The Global Context
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
1995
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
High Forecast
8,836 8,630 8,473 8,381 8,309Known 8,132 7,918 7,751
2019
2010 2015 4,000 2019 2,000 2024 2030 0 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 6,000
2035
2030
774,278 794,310 808,778 818,188 822,702 823,541 822,488 819,780
2025
2020
2015
774,278 815,030 851,211 883,995 914,444 942,330 968,105 991,068
2010
2005
774,278 801,579 823,028 840,159 854,133 865,169 873,583 879,163
2015
2005 8,000
2010
10,000 2000
2005
8,845 8,485 9,108 9,356 9,827 9,736 9,243 8,836
2000
1990
12,000 1995
2024
Known Little Rock MSA Forecast Births 1990–2024 with Forecast to 2060 2060
2000
1995
535,034 572,776 610,518 655,138 699,757 723,894 748,031 774,278
1990
1990 1995 2000 900,000 2005 2010 2015 800,000 2020 2025 700,000 2030 2035 600,000 2040 2045 2050 500,000 2055 2060
1,000,000
1990
1,100,000
The chart below shows Metroplan’s forecast for births. Birth rates have been declining for decades but the decline has steepened. The forecast assumes this decline will slow gradually over time. Fertility is the biggest question for future population growth. Forecasts by the United Nations and the U.S. Bureau of the Census also assume declining fertility. The housing forecasts shown on page one are based on the population forecasts shown here. Forecasts always have a margin of error, and are modified and updated regularly. The shorter the term Dem_R+O_2026_Key_Charts of the forecast, the less error there is likely to be.
Forecast
Pop_Forecast_Charts+Tables.xlsx
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Population (billions)
Known Mdm Forecas Low Forecas High Forecast Global Population TrendWith 2000–2023 Trend 2000-2023 UN Forecasts 2000Global Population 6.2 with UN Forecasts to 2100 to 2100 2001 6.3 2002 6.3 15.0 2003 6.4 14.0 2004 6.5 13.0 2005 6.6 2006 6.7 12.0 2007 6.8 The underlying factor is plummeting fertility. By 2023, the 11.0 2008 6.8 global Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had dropped to 2.251 births 2009 6.9 10.0 2010 7.0 per female in a lifetime—down from 4.85 as recently as 1950, 9.0 2011 7.1 when global population was surging. TFR is also known as the 8.0 2012 7.2 2013 7.3 7.0 “replacement rate,” with an underlying assumption that there 2014 7.4 Birth_Trend+Forecast 6.0 must be about 2.1 births per female in a lifetime to sustain a 2015 7.5 2016 7.6 stable population. In developed counties, TFR has fallen well 2017 7.6 Mdm Forecast Low Forecast High Forecast below the replacement rate. For the U.S. today, it has declined 2018 Known 7.7 2019 7.8 Source: United Nations. to about 1.6. The rate for Central Arkansas is closer to 1.65. 2020 7.9 2021 of immigrants8.0to the U.S., now has a TFR of 1.9. Some Latin While U.S. policy has recently placed a sharp slowdown on 2022 8.0 Source: United Nations. American countries are 1.68.1in Colombia, and 1.3 immigration, global trends are also reducing the pool of 2023 8.1 8.1 even lower: 8.1 2024 8.2 8.2 8.2 in Costa Rica.2 The global population context is shifting. people likely to migrate. Mexico, traditionally a major source 2025 8.2 8.2 8.3 2026 8.3 8.3 8.3 2027 8.3 8.4 1 It is based on the assumption that fertility reverses its relentless decline, rising through about 2040. 2 World Bank,8.4 data for 2024. 2028 8.4 8.4 8.5 2029 8.5 8.4 8.6 METROTRENDS 2 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK 2030 8.6 8.5 8.7 2031 8.6 8.5 8.8
The chart at right depicts United Nations population forecasts through 2100. The “high” scenario must be considered unrealistic.1 Even in the “medium” scenario, population may be declining in 70 years. The “low” scenario predicts global population decline within about 35 years.
Centerstone in Conway The Centerstone project in Conway may anticipate coming land development trends. It connects well into the local transportation network, via a busy arterial street (Dave Ward Drive) and Conway’s innovative and growing trail system. Retail and commercial activity are coupled to 431 residential units on a 35-acre tract.
backyard. Barbers, restaurants and small shops are weaved into Centrestone, and a small park under construction adds natural space next to the trail. An affordable place to live, it also offers a lifestyle.
For developer Brent Salter, building Centerstone was more than a business challenge; it was a labor of love. He contends that the built environment shapes us, offering opportunities for engagement and interaction which affect our moods and even our health. Residents of Centerstone live in a newly built-up suburban area, but they can hike or bike an onsite trail connecting with the Tucker Creek Trail right out their
Centerstone in Conway mixes retail shops with housing in a suburban landscape adjacent to heavily-traveled Dave Ward Drive. Bottom photo credit: Salter Properties.
Housing_Cost_2024_Cha
$
Monthly Housing Cost for Homeowners with a Mortgage The Affordability Question Housing(as Cost as Share of Household Income percent of household income) 2024 Housing Cost as Share of Household Income 2024
forfor Owners with a Mortgage It is the balance Owners with a Mortgage U.S.A. Little Rock MSA of income to Less than 20.0 percent 23,675,702 66,000 35.0 percent or more housing cost, not 20.0 to 24.9 percent 7,440,497 15,433 just cost itself, 25.0 to 29.9 percent 5,174,543 10,724 30.0 to 34.9 percent that determines housing affordability. Central 30.0 to 34.9 percent 3,517,542 8,451 25.0 to 29.9 percent Arkansas balances incomes and housing 35.0 percent or more 11,616,860 18,482 costs well. For owners paying on mortgages, 20.0 to 24.9 percent the Little Rock region ranked in the top 15 Total 51,425,144 119,090 Less than 20.0 percent percent of U.S. metro areas. The chart at right shows owner expense in 2024. As you can see, 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% over 55 percent of local homeowners with a Little Rock MSA U.S.A. mortgage paid less than 20 percent of their U.S.A. Little Rock MSA Source: ACS 2024 one-year. household incomes on housing, compared Less than 20.0 percent 46.0% 55.4% with a U.S. average of 46 percent. The region More statistics can be found in the Statistical Supplement on 20.0affordability to 24.9 percent 14.5% 13.0% also ranks well with rental affordability. page 11 of this document. 25.0 to 29.9 percent 10.1% 9.0% 30.0 to 34.9 percent 6.8% 7.1% 35.0 percent or more 22.6% 15.5%
Source: A METROTRENDS
2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK | 3
Central Arkansas Population 2026 Metroplan estimates that the six-county Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway MSA reached a population of 780,450 by 2026. A notable milestone is that Conway passed the 70,000 population mark and is now the region’s second-largest city after Little Rock. Benton is the region’s fourth-largest city with a population of 37,885. Maumelle has crossed the 20,000 mark.
Faulkner and Saline Counties are the region’s fastest growing counties. Both counties have seen sizeable population growth outside incorporated areas, although the exact amount is difficult to measure. In unincorporated areas, the lack of housing permit records is a challenge.
Components of Population Change 2026 The table below shows the three elements of population change for the region’s six counties. Three of the six counties showed positive natural increase, with more births than deaths in Faulkner, Lonoke and Pulaski Counties. The other three counties saw a small net decrease from natural causes. Elevated mortality rates from the COVID-19 pandemic in the years 2020–2022 were factors in the unusually high death rates. Regional birth rates have declined since 2020, but exceeded mortality in all years.
County Faulkner Grant Lonoke
In-migration has been strongest in Saline and Faulkner Counties, but all counties showed positive net migration flows from 2020 to 2026. Almost all of the region’s in-migration is domestic in nature. Historically one of the region’s sources of new residents has been young people from rural Arkansas seeking education and employment in the Central Arkasnas economy.The regional economy has grown faster so far in the 2020 decade than the previous one, and this has probably helped to lure people to the region. Population Change 2020-202
Population Change 2020-2026
Population ChangeChange 2020-202613% Population Little Rock MSA Components of Population Change Population Change 2020-2026 13% 2020–2026 Population Change 2020-2026 2020–2026 Natural Increase 4,151 13% 12.8% Natural Increase 4,151 12.8%2020-2026 Population Change Population Population Change Births Deaths Natural Migration Net Migration 28,268 87.2% 1/1/2026 4/1/2020 Increase Net Migration Natural Increase 28,268 87.2% 4,151 12.8% Net Migration 28,268 87.2% 134,779 123,498 11,281 8,592 6,729 1,863 9,418 Check total 32,419 18,832 17,958 874 1,118 1,432 Check -314 1,188 total 32,419 Check total 32,419 77,197 74,015 3,182 4,962 4,721 241 2,941
Perry
10,337
10,019
318
564
864
-300
618
Pulaski
406,427
399,125
7,302
27,836
24,916
2,920
4,382
Saline
132,878
123,416
9,462
8,040
8,299
-259
9,721
MSA
780,450
748,031
32,419
51,112
46,961
4,151
28,268
Source: Arkansas department of Health. Figures are provisional.
87%
87%
87% Natural Increase
Net Migration
Natural Increase Net Migration Natural Increase Net Migration
Estimated Non-Citizen EstimatedShare Non-Citizen of Share of How Does Migration Affect Central Arkansas? Population Population
Non-Citizens Non-Citizens Non-Citizens Estimated Non-Citizen 7.4 7.4 U.S.A. Share7.4of Population 2024 ock ock 3.7 3.7 Little Rock 3.7
7.4
7.4
3.7
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
LITTLE ROCK MSA
Source: ACS 2024.
As the table above shows, population change is a byproduct of two factors, natural increase and migration. Since natural increase has slowed, migration accounts for 87 percent of recent population change.
Migration is a net of inflows and outflows. If five people move in while three 3.7 move out, that is a net migration of +2. While some of the region’s migration is international, most is domestic. Since the local region’s share of non-citizen population is below average, U.S. immigration policies have less of an impact LITTLE ROCK MSA on Central Arkansas.
Source: Source: American American Community Community Source:Survey Survey American 2024. 2024. Community Survey 2024.
4 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK
METROTRENDS
Population Change Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway MSA Population Change 2020–2025 Faulkner County Conway
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
Benton
35,014
37,885
8.2%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
Saline County
64,134
70,027
9.2%
Greenbrier
5,707
6,649
16.5%
Bryant
20,663
21,829
5.6%
Mayflower
1,984
2,179
9.8%
Shannon Hills
4,490
4,540
1.1%
Vilonia
4,288
4,964
15.8%
Haskell
3,956
4,193
6.0%
Wooster
1,042
1,170
12.3%
Alexander**
3,165
3,342
5.6%
Small Community*
2,288
2,300
0.5%
Unincorporated
44,055
47,490
7.8%
Traskwood
495
481
-2.8%
123,498
134,779
9.1%
Bauxite
629
1,102
75.2%
Total Grant County
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Sheridan
4,920
5,266
7.0%
17,958
18,832
4.9%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
26,569
27,957
5.2%
Total Lonoke County Cabot
Change from 2020–2026
Austin
3,460
4,004
15.7%
Ward
6,052
7,339
21.3%
Lonoke
4,276
4,435
3.7%
England
2,477
2,267
-8.5%
Carlisle
Unincorporated
55,004
59,506
8.2%
123,416
132,878
7.7%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
In Saline County
6,712
7,379
9.9%
In Garland County
9,149
9,707
6.1%
Total
15,861
17,086
7.7%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
Alexander
3,385
3,573
5.6%
4-County Region
720,054
751,281
4.3%
6-County MSA***
748,031
780,450
4.3%
Total Hot Springs Village CDP (Unincorporated area):
City of Alexander (county splits shown above)
2,033
1,888
-7.1%
Small Community*
599
569
-5.0%
Unincorporated
28,549
28,738
0.7%
74,015
77,197
4.3%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
1,373
1,418
3.3%
U.S. U.S. Annual Percent Change 2010–2025 Annual PercentPopulation Population Change 2010-2025
10,019
10,337
3.2%
Census 2020
Estimate 2026
Change from 2020–2026
64,591
66,858
3.5%
1.2%U.S. Population Population Change 1.0% 2010 309,378,227 2010-2011 0.8% 1.0% 2011 311,839,461 2011-2012 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 314,339,099 2012 2012-2013 0.7%0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2013 316,726,282 2013-2014 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 2014 319,257,560 2014-2015 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 321,815,121 2015 2015-2016 0.8% 0.2% 2016 324,353,340 2016-2017 0.7% 0.2% 2017 326,608,609 2017-2018 0.6% 0.0% 328,529,577 2018 2018-2019 0.5% 2019 330,226,227 2019-2020 0.4% 2020 331,578,104 2020-2021 0.2% 2021 332,100,166 2021-2022 0.6% 2022 333,996,304 2022-2023 0.8% Figures represent July 1 of each year. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2023 336,755,052 2023-2024 1.0% 2024 340,003,797 2024-2025 0.5% 2025 341,784,857
170,749
175,194
2.6%
Little Rock
202,591
205,439
1.4%
Cammack Village
778
760
-2.3%
Alexander**
220
231
5.0%
Wrightsville
1,542
1,517
-1.6%
Unincorporated (S)
23,245
23,150
-0.4%
Total S of River
228,376
231,097
1.2%
Total Unincorporated
47,944
47,150
-1.7%
Total
399,125
406,427
1.8%
METROTRENDS
2024-2025
Total N of River
2023-2024
4.5% -2.8%
2022-2023
20,118 24,000
2021-2022
19,251 24,699
2020-2021
Maumelle Unincorporated (N)
2019-2020
2.0% 4.3%
2018-2019
30,066 34,152
2017-2018
29,477 32,731
2016-2017
Jacksonville Sherwood
2015-2016
North Little Rock
2014-2015
Pulaski County
2013-2014
Total
2012-2013
Perryville
2011-2012
Perry County
*Small community populations are generally under 1,000 ** Represents portion of Alexander by county US_Pop_Chg_2010-2025.xlsx ***Official MSA since May 2003
2010-2011
Total
Figures represent July 1 of each year. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK | 5
Housing Yesterday and Today Housing is always changing, and the demographic factors which drive housing markets are in flux, too. In 1970 the average housing unit in Central Arkansas contained slightly over 3 persons. Nearly half of all households consisted of families with children. It was rare to live alone: single-resident households were about one in six.
1970:
3.06
A half-century later in 2024, there were about 2.4 persons in each household. Just one quarter of households contained children. Living alone, meanwhile, has become much more common, accounting for 30.7 percent of all households, or nearly one-third. The region’s overall statistics have changed a lot, too. From 1970 to 2025 Central Arkansas population grew by over 50 percent, from about 396,000 to 774,000. Over two-thirds of regional population was in Pulaski County in 1970; by 2025 nearly half lived in five outlying counties. Back in 1970, population in the region’s downtown and near-downtown areas was declining. Older inner-city neighborhoods had seen their housing stock demolished through federal Urban Renewal programs, and inner-city housing was in decline. Almost all housing growth was in the suburbs. Nearly four in five (79.1 percent) of regional residents lived in single-family homes. Today, single-family homes account for a smaller share, but still the majority— 69.9 percent, almost 7 in 10 homes. Suburbs are still developing, but the pace has slowed and a rising share of new housing construction is “infill” development in older areas, typically downtown and midtown neighborhoods.
6 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK
A Metroplan study recently estimated that about 19 percent of the region’s new singlefamily units consisted of urban infill.
Average Persons Per Household 2020:
2.40
We talked with regional developers to get perspectives beyond the statistics. They agree that demographics are changing, as are people’s housing tastes. Demand
is strong for townhouse-type units, i.e. Persons / Household 1950 3.39 smaller single-family units with small 1960 3.29 yards or no yard at all, often in mixed-use 1970 3.06 1980 2.74 developments with shopping and services 1990 2.56 close by. Homes with easy access to bike 2000 2.47 2010 2.45 and pedestrian trails also have an advantage. 2020 2.40 Central Arkansas Persons / Household 1950-2020 Central Arkansas Persons/Household 1950-2020 3.45 3.25 3.05 2.85 2.65 2.45 2.25
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Developers who do innovative townhouse and/or mixed use projects can reliably fill up units they construct. The challenge is instead on the front end: overcoming institutional inertia from financial markets and governments. Behind the scenes, investors still prefer the known risks of so-called “greenfield” development on the suburban fringe to the less familiar market conditions of urban and mixeduse projects. Developers also told us that while most city
METROTRENDS
Pulaski County Pulaski Population County Population Share of SixShare of Six-
Percent Central Percent Arkansas Central Households Arkansaswith Households Childrenwith Children County Region County Percent Central Households Under AgeArkansas 18Under Region Age 18 HH w/kids HHwith w/kidsChildren Under Age 18 50
planning departments support infill/new urbanist projects in principle, carrying through an innovative project is a 50 45 heavy lift in practice. Even when a new project conforms 40 1970 2024 35 with local land use regulations, existing neighborhood resi30 dents resist new housing developments in public meetings.25
A Tentative Glimpse at the Future Looking toward the future of housing, the recent past gives hints. Families are smaller and single-person households are more common. Roughly half of the housing growth in the region’s three largest cities—Little Rock, North Little Rock and Conway—is multi-family in nature, often occurring in urban and suburban infill sites. At the same time, the region’s suburban edge communities continue building “greenfield” developments of conventional low-density single-family housing.
20 15 10 5 0
45.5 72.4% 28.745.5
53.4%
28.7
1970
2020
53.4%
28.7
2020
1970 1970 2024 2024 Regional Residents Regional in Residents Single-Family in Single-Family Average Persons Average perPersons Household per Household Homes Homes Regional Residents inHousehold Single-Family Homes Average Persons perAverage Household Persons per 1970 2020
3.06 2.40
1970
3.062020 79.1%
3.06 2.40 3.06 79.1%
2.40
Percent One-personPercent Households One-person Households 1970 16.5 1970 16.5 2020 30.7 2020 30.7 69.9%
During the 2030 and 2040 decades, population growth is likely to decelerate in line with national trends. Since infrastructure for suburban fringe housing is financed via debt guaranteed on the assumption of continued expansion, financial models might undergo some adjustments. There will still be some continuing expansion of greenfield suburban neighborhoods, but the emphasis may continue shifting toward reclaiming older areas. 40 35
2.40 69.9%
1970 2020
Pulaski County Pulaski1970 Share County ofPopulation Six-CountyShare Region of Six-County Region 1970 Population 2020 2020 72.4% 72.4% 19701970 1970 2020 2020 53.4% 2020 53.4%
1970 2020
Regional Residents Regional in Single-Family Residents Homes in Single-Family Homes 79.1% 1970 79.1% 30.7 69.9% 2020 69.9%
New construction might be supplemented by retrofits 30 Age to older housing. For tomorrow’s smaller households, Median 25 buying or renting a house might be less about what’s 20 15 inside than the environment around it. The old rule 10 of “location, location, location” will still operate in 5 0 any case, favoring areas with transportation convenience and good-quality amenities, like parks, trails, retail and recreation opportunities.
METROTRENDS
45 45.5 1970 72.4% 40 28.745.5 2024 35 30 25 20 15 10 51970 0
Percent One-person Percent One-person Households Households Percent One-person Households
16.5
16.5
1970
1970
2020
30.7
2020
LR MSA Median Age LR 1970 MSA Median and 2020 Age 1970 and 2020
Central Arkansas Central (6-county) Arkansas Median (6-county) AgeMedian Median Age Age Central Arkansas (6-county) 40 35 1970 2020 1970 30 Median 27.8 Age 38.0 27.8 25 20
27.8
27.8
1970
1970
2020 38.0
38.0
38.0
2020
2020
15 10 5 0
2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK | 7
The Recent Housing Construction Trend During 2025, regional housing construction maintained a good pace. The single-family sector saw strong gains during 2025, rising over 15 percent above construction levels in 2024. Cities within Pulaski County saw the biggest gains. Maumelle built 153 new units, up 56 percent over the previous year. Little Rock built 549 new units, a 52 percent gain and the city’s most single-family units built since 2007. North Little Rock was up 33 percent, and Sherwood gained 26 percent. Cities outside Pulaski County saw net decline in new units compared with 2024, but still built a lot of homes, with 242 units in Benton, 133 in Bryant and 122 in Conway. Total multi-family construction was up from 2024, but still below average for the 2016–2025 period. Little Rock saw 405 new multi-family units started during 2025, mostly in southwestern Little Rock. North Little Rock saw 228 additional units, mainly at the Pointe North Hills in Lakewood, with some additional units in Argenta. Cabot, Conway and Jacksonville also saw smaller scale multi-family construction, mostly in the form of duplex and triplex units. Some of the strength in housing construction can be attributed to interest rate reductions in late 2024 and again in late 2025. Further rate reductions were widely expected until energy prices surged in March and April of 2026.
Housing Unit Permits 2022–2025
Benton Bryant Cabot Conway Jacksonville Little Rock Maumelle N. Little Rock Sherwood Benton Bryant Cabot Conway Jacksonville Little Rock Maumelle N. Little Rock Sherwood Single-Family Multi-Family Grand Total
Single-Family 2022 2023 301 160 88 89 80 68 249 191 66 81 361 370 88 65 187 124 107 134 Multi-Family 0 180 4 8 0 136 171 202 10 22 665 499 0 2 283 395 0 0 Regional Totals 1,527 1,282 1,133 1,444 2,660 2,726
2024 244 167 104 134 107 361 98 171 121
2025 242 133 56 122 91 549 153 228 153
0 0
0 8
4 466 20 49 0 18 0
56 84 78 405 0 228 0
1,507 557 2,064
1,727 859 2,586
* Totals exclude Hot Springs Village, which is in Garland County outside Metroplan’s planning jurisdiction.
Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx NOTE: This housing permit data set records only cover the ten largest cities in Central Arkansas.
Single-Famil Multi-FamilyTotal UnitsHousing Unit Permits 2016-2025 Little RockMSA MSANew New Little Rock Housing Unit Permits 2016–2025 2016 1,310 432 1,742 4,000 2017 1,343 1,737 3,080 3,500 2018 1,311 932 2,243 3,000 2019 1,458 1,632 3,090 2,500 2020 1,591 1,011 2,602 2021 1,904 1,494 3,398 2,000 2022 1,527 1,133 2,660 1,500 2023 1,282 1,444 2,726 1,000 2024 1,507 557 2,064 500 2025 1,727 859 2,586 Duplex housing is becoming more common throughout Central Arkansas.
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Single-Family
8 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK
2020
2021
Multi-Family
2022
2023
2024
2025
Total Units
METROTRENDS
DFF Federal Funds Effective Rate 2021-2026 4/2/2021 0.07 Federal Funds Effective Rate 2021–2026 64/3/2021 0.07 4/4/2021 0.07 5 4/5/2021 0.07 4/6/2021 0.07 4 4/7/2021 0.07 0.07 34/8/2021 4/9/2021 0.07 2 Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx 4/10/2021 0.07
U.S.A. U.S.A.
4/2/2026
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4/2/2021
4/11/2021 0.07 1 4/12/2021 0.07 4/13/2021 0.07 0 Homeowner Homeowner Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 2019 2019 4/14/2021 0.07 Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx meowner Homeowner Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 4/15/2021 0.07 Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx andand 2024 2024 2019 2019 2024 2024 4/16/2021 0.07 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 1.6 0.07 A. 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 4/17/2021 1.4 1.4 4/18/2021 0.07 ock e Rock MSAMSA 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 Homeowner Vacancy (percent) 2019 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 4/19/2021 0.07 1.2 1.2 Homeowner Vacancy (percent) Homeowner Homeowner Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 2019 2019 1.0 1.0 and 2024 20190.07 Homeowner Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 4/20/2021 1 1Homeowner Homeowner Vacancy (percent) and 2024 2019 2024 and 2024 2024 0.71.5 4/21/2021 0.07 0.7 1.52019 and 2019 2024 2024 0.8 U.S.A. 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 4/22/2021 1.5 1.5 0.07 1.61.4 1.6 0.6 0.6 U.S.A. U.S.A. 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 Little Rock MSA 0.7 Rental Rental Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent)1.5 4/23/2021 0.07 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 Little Little Rock Rock MSAMSA 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 4/24/2021 0.07 2019 2019 2024 2024 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1 1.0 1.0 4/25/2021 0.07 A.0 0 10.8 1 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.7 0.7 4/26/2021 0.070.7 0.7 ock e Rock MSAMSA 9.7 9.7 6.5 6.5 0.80.6 0.8 U.S.A. U.S.A. Little Little Rock Rock MSAMSA 4/27/2021 0.07 Rental Vacancy (percent) 0.60.4 0.6 4/28/2021 0.07 Rental Rental Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 2019 20192024 2024 2019 2024 0.40.2 0.4 4/29/2021 0.06 2019 2019 2024 U.S.A. 6.0 2024 5.7 0.2 0.2 4/30/2021 0.05 0 U.S.A. U.S.A. 6.09.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 5/1/2021 0.05 0 0MSA Little Rock 6.5 Housing_Constr_Charts+Table_26a.xlsx U.S.A. Little Rock MSA Source: Source: ACS ACS one-year, one-year, 20192019 and and 2024. 2024. Little Little Rock Rock MSAMSA U.S.A. 9.7 9.7 6.5 6.5 Little 5/2/2021 0.05 U.S.A. Little Rock Rock MSAMSA 2019 2024 5/3/2021 0.06 2019 2019 2024 2024 5/4/2021 0.06 5/5/2021 0.06 Homeowner Vacancy (percent) 2019 ACS one-year, 2019 and 2024. Source: 5/6/2021 0.06and Homeowner Vacancy (percent) Rental Rental Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 2019 2019 and Edgewood a new development in west Little Rock, features single-family homes Source: Source: ACSACS one-year, one-year, 20192019 andCircle, and 2024. 2024. and 2024 5/7/2021 0.06 2019 2024 as well as duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes. 2024 2024 Rental Vacancy (percent) 20191.5 and 5/8/2021 0.062024 1.5 U.S.A. 1.6 1.5 1.0 5/9/2021 0.06 12.0 1.412.0 Little Rock MSA 1.5 0.7 5/10/2021 0.06 9.7 9.7 1.210.0 10.0 Rental 1.0 Vacancy 5/11/2021(percent) 0.06 2019 and 1 Rental Rental Vacancy Vacancy (percent) (percent) 2019 2019 andand 5/12/2021 8.0 8.0 2024 0.066.5 6.5 0.7 0.8 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.7 5/13/2021 2024 20240.06 12.0 6.0 0.6 6.0 5/14/2021 0.06 Rental12.0 Vacancy 12.0 (percent) 9.7 0.4 4.0 10.0 4.0 9.7 9.7 2019 2024 10.010.0 0.2 8.0 U.S.A. 2.00 2.0 6.0 5.7 6.5 6.0 8.0 8.0 5.7 6.5 6.5 Little Rock MSA 6.0 U.S.A. 9.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 5.76.5 5.7 Little Rock MSA 6.0 6.0 U.S.A. U.S.A. Little Little Rock Rock MSAMSA 4.0 2019 2024 4.0 4.0 2019 20192024 2024 2.0 Source: ACS one-year, 2019 and 2024. 2.0 2.0 0.0 Source: ACS one-year, 2019 and 2024. 0.0 0.0 U.S.A. Little Rock MSA
Source: Source: ACSACS one-year, one-year, 20192019 and and 2024. It is not2024. hard for developers to find buyers and tenants for new multi-family units in
Little Little Rock Rock MSAMSAmixed-use and suburban neighborhoods. The bigger challenge lies with zoning laws and
2019 2024 2019 20192024 2024
financing.
Rental Vacancy (percent) 2019 and Source: ACS one-year, 2019 and 2024. 2024 Source: Source: ACSACS one-year, one-year, 20192019 and and 2024. 2024. 12.0 10.0 METROTRENDS 8.0 6.0
9.7 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK | 9
6.0
5.7
6.5
2026 Demographic Outlook Local housing construction during the first half of 2026 has remained on-trend with the previous year’s strong performance. Two sub-trends currently characterize the region’s housing growth:
U.S. population increase slowed to 0.5 percent during 2025, impacted by changes to immigration policy. Since natural population increase is running very slowly, expect U.S. population growth to continue softening.
•
Steady new construction on suburban fringes, especially on the southwest and northeast axes, featuring the cities of Benton and Ward on either end.
•
Rising infill housing growth, mostly multi-family but with some single-family mixed in, within already-developed portions of Little Rock, North Little Rock and Conway.
The short-term regional outlook remains “on trend” with the generally prosperous years 2022–2025. In a nation challenged by cost-of-living issues, especially in housing costs, Central Arkansas housing markets confer a competitive edge.
Interest rates remain a critical factor for housing prospects. As the chart below shows, rates today are comparatively high, but still lower than at the century’s onset. There is, however, a prospect for interest rate hikes later in 2026, in light of international headwinds. The population forecasts provided with this edition of the Metrotrends Demographic Review and Outlook offer high, low and middle range predictions. Global and even national population trends make the middle and low forecasts look more plausible. Metropolitan planning organizations across the country are informing their local audiences to expect slower growth in the future, due to shifting underlying demographics.
Regional housing construction continues apace, but lower interest rates would give a boost.
Interest rates in mid-2026 are down a bit, but way above average since about 2008. They were even higher at the turn of the century.
10 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK
METROTRENDS
Statistical Supplement 2026 The Affordability Question: A Closer Look
Fertility and Mortality
The chart below is the “renter” version of the chart depicting housing costs for homeowners on page 3. As you can see, about 32 percent of Central Arkansas renters pay under 20 percent of their incomes on rent, compared with 24 percent of U.S. residents overall. Despite this favorable statistic, nearly 39 percent of local renters pay 35 percent or more of their incomes on rent—still better than the U.S. average of 42 percent paying over 35 percent.
The chart below shows that during 2024 the state of Arkansas again saw more deaths than births. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, births outnumbered deaths in Arkansas all years this century and during the prior century since at least the 1930s. COVID-19 deaths were way down by 2024, so aging of the population is the most likely explanation. As the chart on p. 4 shows, within the Little Rock MSA births continue to outnumber deaths. AR_Vit_Stats_2007-2025.xlsx
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2014
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2012
Births
Deaths
45.0% 45.0%
40.0% 40.0%
35.0% 35.0%
30.0% 30.0%
25.0% 25.0%
20.0% 20.0%
106,535 106,535
2007
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Figures forFigures 2024forand areare provisional. 20242025 and 2025 provisional.
15.0% 15.0%
42,954,477 42,954,477 10.0% 10.0%
U.S.A. Little Rock MSA 10,335,116 33,857 10,335,116 33,857 5,412,134 11,826 5,412,134 11,826 4,969,965 11,632 4,969,965 11,632 4,056,945 7,984 4,056,945 7,984 18,180,317 41,236 18,180,317 41,236
2018
30,117 30,437 30,467 31,617 31,756 32,588 32,336 32,888 38,108 40,070 37,855 35,758 35,976 36,052
2017
38,347 37,832 38,511 38,886 38,274 37,520 37,018 36,564 35,251 35,965 35,471 35,264 35,395 35,545
2014 2015 2016 30,000 2017 2018 25,000 2019 2020 2021 20,000 2022 2023 2024 2025
5.0% 5.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Less Less than than 20.0 20.0 percent percent 35.0 percent or 35.0 percent or more more 20.0 to 24.9 20.0 to 24.9 percent percent 25.030.0 to 29.9 percent to 34.9 percent 25.0 to 29.9 percent 30.0 to 34.9 percent 30.0 to to 34.9 34.9 percent percent 30.0 25.0 percent 25.0 to to 29.9 29.9 more percent 35.0 35.0 percent percent or or more 20.0 to 24.9 20.0 to 24.9 percent percent Total Total Less than 20.0 Less than 20.0 percent percent
2013 35,000
2016
2012
Monthly Rental Cost for Rental Houseohlds
Monthly Rental Cost for Rental Houseohlds Housing Cost as of Income Housing(as Cost as Share Share of Household Household Income percent of income) (as percent of household household income)Income Housing Cost as Share of Household 2024 2024 2024 For Renters for Renters Little Rock MSA for Renters U.S.A.
2015
The table below gives rankings comparing the share of locals Arkansas Vital Statistics 2007–2025 Births Deaths Arkansas Vital Statistics 2007-2024 paying 20 percent or less of their incomes on mortgages or 2007 41,378 28,191 45,000 2008 40,669 29,322 rent. The Little Rock region compares favorably against most 2009 39,808 28,673 Housing_Cost_2024_Chart2.xlsx 2010 38,540 28,916 Housing_Cost_2024_Chart2.xlsx 40,000 other U.S. metro areas for both renters and owners. 2011 38,715 29,653
Little Rock Rock MSA U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A. Little Little MSA U.S.A. Little Rock Rock MSA MSA 24.1% 31.8% 24.1% 31.8% 12.6% 11.1% 12.6% 11.1% 11.6% 10.9% 11.6% 10.9% Chart Share of Households Paying 20 Percent or Less on Housing 9.4% 7.5% 9.4% 7.5% 42.3% 38.7% 42.3% 38.7% Metric U.S.A. Central Rank Among All 387 U.S. Rank Among 54 Source: ACS ACS 2024 2024 one-year. one-year. Compiled by Source: Compiled by Arkansas Metro Areas Mid-sized Metro Areas
Less than than 20.0 20.0 percent percent Less Source: ACS 2024 one-year. 20.0 to to 24.9 24.9 percent percent 20.0 25.0 25.0 to to 29.9 29.9 percent percent 30.0 to 30.0 to 34.9 34.9 percent percent 35.0 percent percent or or more more 35.0
Home Owners with Mortgage
46.9 percent
34.0 percent
59th (Top 15 percent)
Renting Households
23.1 percent
26.2 percent
116th (Top 26 percent)
Metroplan
Metroplan 7th (Top 137/13/2026 percent) 7/13/2026
12th (Top 22 percent)
Notes: Owner affordability rankings based on share of mortgage-holding owners paying under 20 percent of household income. Renter affordability rankings based on share of renters paying under 20 percent of household income. Source: ACS 2024 five-year.
METROTRENDS
2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK11| 11
Statistical Supplement 2026 Forecast 2060
Demographic Characteristics—Chosen Series Persons Per Household
The tables below give background on Metroplan’s cohortcomponent population forecast to the year 2060. Metroplan forecasted three alternatives, High, Low and Chosen (middle). The forecasts differ in their chosen migration scenarios. In the three forecasts, fertility and mortality assumptions are similar but the migration rates that drive population growth are different: 1. The Chosen, or middle series depends on migration rates for Central Arkansas from the period 1990–2024. 2. The High series depends on migration rates from the period 1990–2010. 3. The Low series depends on migration rates from the period 2010–2020. Fertility declined from 2015 to 2020, and even more steeply from 2020 to 2025. The forecast shown here assumes the drop will continue, but will slow after about 2035 and stabilize after 2050. Fertility is today the greatest uncertainty for demographers.
2010
2.45
2010
50.2
2015
2.42
2015
49.1
2020
2.40
2020
44.6
2025
2.36
2025
42.6
2030
2.34
2030
42.0
2035
2.33
2035
41.3
2040
2.31
2040
40.9
2045
2.30
2045
40.0
2050
2.30
2050
39.1
2055
2.29
2055
38.5
2060
2.29
2060
38.6
Note: Data for years 2010–2025 are known and the following years are forecasts.
Population Forecast Alternatives Chosen
High
Births /1,000 Females of Chldbearing Age
Household Forecast Alternatives Low
Chosen
High
Low
305,493
305,493
305,493
2020
748,031
748,031
748,031
2020
2025
777,607
777,607
777,607
2025
320,788
320,788
320,788
2030
805,939
819,209
793,277
2030
336,591
342,133
331,303
2035
828,350
856,078
802,310
2035
348,316
359,975
337,366
2040
846,146
889,289
806,091
2040
358,247
376,514
341,289
2045
860,419
919,788
805,638
2045
365,548
390,771
342,275
2050
871,626
947,753
801,714
2050
371,593
404,047
341,788
375,811
415,694
339,552
378,937
426,355
336,405
2055
880,300
973,720
795,366
2055
2060
886,389
997,306
786,901
2060
Pulaski County Population of Six-Share of SixPulaski CountyShare Population PulaskiRegion County Population County County Region Share of Six-County Region 72.4%
1970
53.4%
In 1970, nearly three-quarters of regional residents lived in Pulaski County. While all of the region’s 53.4% counties have grown over the past fifty years, the suburban counties have grown faster.
2020
2020
72.4%
1970
Regional Residents Single-Family RegionalinResidents in Single-Family Homes Homes
12 | 2026 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK 79.1%
79.1%
METROTRENDS
2026 Metroplan Board of Directors PRESIDENT Judge Allen Dodson Faulkner County
VICE PRESIDENT Mayor Ken Kincade City of Cabot
SECRETARY/TREASURER Judge Matt Brumley Saline County
IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT Judge Barry Hyde Pulaski County
Mayor Crystal Herrmann City of Alexander
Mr. Keith Keck Hot Springs Village
Mayor Kimberly Schane City of Traskwood
Mayor Bernadette Chamberlain City of Austin
Mayor Jeff Elmore City of Jacksonville
Mayor Preston Scroggin City of Vilonia
Mayor Eddie Jones City of Bauxite
Mayor Stephanie White City of Keo
Mayor Charles Gastineau City of Ward
Mayor Tom Farmer City of Benton
Mayor Frank Scott, Jr. City of Little Rock
Mayor Terry Don Robinson City of Wooster
Mayor Chris Treat City of Bryant
Mayor Wayne McGee City of Lonoke
Mayor Derrick Rainey City of Wrightsville
Mayor Cody Kees City of Cammack Village
Mayor Caleb Norris City of Maumelle
Judge Randy Pruitt Grant County
Mayor Jon Plafcan City of Carlisle
Mayor Zach Jeffery City of Mayflower
Judge Doug Erwin Lonoke County
Mayor Bart Castleberry City of Conway
Mayor Jonathon Hawkins City of Mount Vernon
Mr. David Siskowski Arkansas Department of Transportation
Mayor David “Butch” House City of England
Mayor Terry Hartwick City of North Little Rock
Mr. Justin Avery Rock Region METRO
Mayor Mike Kemp City of Shannon Hills
Mr. Bryan Day Little Rock Port Authority
Mayor Cain Nattin City of Sheridan
Ms. Suzanne Peyton Clinton National Airport
Mayor Sammy Hartwick City of Greenbrier Mayor Terry Williams City of Guy Mayor Clyde Crookham, Jr. City of Haskell
Mayor Mary Jo Heye-Townsell City of Sherwood
501 West Markham St., Suite B
Little Rock, AR 72201
501-372-3300
metroplan.org