MEMBERS AT RISK
STUDY & REPORT
MEMBERS AT RISK INITIAL STUDY Members At Risk Initial Study GOAL: Based on the member behavior trends of previously resigned members, determine those within current membership exhibiting similar behavior; thus at risk of resignation due to predictable reason codes. ***Please note that the resignation reason codes are fluid classifications and chosen best fit for the individual's unique situation. ACTION: Identify behavioral trends based on analyzing the population of members who resigned in the past 24 months and then determine which members from the current membership are exhibiting similar behaviors. The four tests are intended to identify current members at risk. 4 Tests: #1 Out-of-State "Resident" members #2 Education Financial Commitment #3 Financial Commitment to BCC #4 Retire Home
Tab Name: Description Past: -Gathered data from the Member Status Change report on NorthStar for the past two calendar years (01/01/2022 to 12/31/2023). -Focused the query for only the inactive Resident Member Types within classes A, B, D, H, & J -Determined which of the resignation reason codes we can predict and removed all others. All Resignation Predictable Codes Lack of Use Yes Relocation Yes Family Resignation Yes Financial Yes Unknown Yes ***Assumed to be financial or lack of use Bad Standing No Deceased No Decline Member No Type Change Health No -Differentiated the resignations by their year of occurrence and recorded the individual member's club interactions within 12 months from their deactivation date. ***Interactions= Any recorded transaction under the member #. (Ex: POS Check, Golf Rounds, Banquet Attendance, Activity Reservations) -Used a PivotTable to summarize the data and sum the count of members within each of the Interaction Interval groups. -Proved that resident members who interact with the club 0-10 within their last year before deactivation are most likely to resign (55% of resignations); thus current members interacting with the club 0-10 should be our targeted population. 2023 Trends: -Wanted to dig deeper into the behaviors of the resigning members, so we used the 2023 resignations as a focus group. -Classified the individuals as Golf or Social members and Family or Individual members. -Analyzed the individual member's club interactions in 12 month intervals from their specific deactivation date for the past 5 years. -Organized the records into a PivotChart to display trends. -Determined that: *Golf members are least likely to resign due to Financial or Family Resignation reason code. *Social members were 6 times more likely to resign compared to golf members - Downloaded from QlikSense the list of current resident A, B, D, H, & J members who have used the club 0-10 times in the past 12 months (Feb 1,2023 to Jan 31, 2024) ***Average member interactions in the year was 95. ***Moving forward, this list of 410 members will be referred to as the "Population". ***Anyone with an activation date within the year was removed from the population.
MEMBERS AT RISK QUARTERLY REPORT GOAL: Based on the Members At Risk study back in February 2024, resident A, B, D, H, & J members who have interacted with the club 0-10 times in the past 12 months have determined to be at risk of resignation due to predictable reason codes. Based on a series of four situational tests, the at risk population is then narrowed down to those truly at risk. 4 Tests: #1 Out-of-State "Resident" members #2 Education Financial Commitment #3 Financial Commitment to BCC #4 Retirement Planning
Tab Name:
Description
Population - Downloaded from QlikSense the list of current resident A, B, D, H, & J members who have used the club 0-10 times in the past 12 months (Dec 01, 2024 to Nov 30, 2025) ***Average member interactions for all selected members in the year was 97. ***Anyone with an activation date within the year was removed from the population. ***Removed from the population those the Director of Membership deemed explainable. ***Moving forward, this list of 332 members will be referred to as the "Population". A bs t ra c t - 2 3 3 of t he 3 3 2 popul a t i on mem bers (7 0 % ) t es t ed pos i t i ve in one or more of t he s it ua t i ona l t es t s . - 5 3 of t he 3 3 2 popul a t i on m em bers (1 6 % ) t es t ed pos i t i ve i n m or e t ha n one of t he s i t ua t i ona l t es t s . - 3 4 of t he a t ri s k popula t i on s ubm it t ed H a ppomet er r es pons es wi t hi n t he t es t ed t i mefra m e; a n 8 % decrea s e from t he Q2 a na l ys i s . - 9 3 % of t he popula t ion's res pons es ra nked t hei r r el a t i ons hi p t o t he B C C S t a ff genui nely a nd pos it ivel y i mpa c t ing t hei r overa l l ex peri enc e a s s u per.
Happometer Ranking Super 1 31 12 3 4 1 52 93%
Location BCC Private Events Club Events FF A la Carte FF Pool Cafe Golf Tennis & Pickleball Grand Total Proportion
*** See PivotTable to the right named "Happometer" for the Population's Happometer Relationship to the BCC Staff Genuinely & Positively Impacting Their Experience. ---> -EEx hi bi t #1 : A combined list from the current analysis of those who tested positive in one or more of the situational tests. *Select the "+" to expand the member name and see their test(s). -EEx hi bi t #2 : A list of the repeating members who tested positive in one or more of the situational tests from the current analysis compared to the Q2 analysis. -EEx hi bi t #3 : The members from the Q2 analysis who have since resigned.
Very Good
Average
1 2
1
3 5%
1 2%
Grand Total 1 32 15 3 4 1 56
Test #1- OUT-OF-STATE "RESIDENT" MEMBERS : -Wanted to identify those who have residences in other states potentially leading to a "relocation" resignation. -Customized a report from NorthStar to provide the active resident members and all addresses within their profiles. -Used conditional formatting to identify the members who are within our testing population. -Created an ordered list of all addresses associated with a member. -Sorted the list to remove any MD addresses. -Result: *18 of the population have residents outside of MD, a 13% increase from the Q2 analysis. *14 of the at risk members are repeats from the Q2 analysis Test #2- EDUCATION FINANCIAL COMMITMENT: -Wanted to identify another financial lifestyle choice our members face that could potentially take priority over their club membership and leading to a "financial" resignation. ***This test is working under the assumption that our members are educating their children at a private school PreK-College without any financial assistance. -Used a customized membership report from NorthStar that connected the primary, spouse, and dependent(children) member numbers into households. -Obtained tuition information from the educational institutions' websites broken down by age. Obtained average private college tuition rates using educationdata.org ***Assumed the children are in Preschool for 2 years Garrison ***Values Updated 10/2025 AGE TURNING Gilman RPCS Bryn Mawr Calvert BL Forest NDP Preschool 4-5. $ 22,435 $ $ 23,000 $ - $ 26,300 $ 20,500 $ Kindergarten 6. $ 27,655 $ 32,500 $ 33,900 $ 22,975 $ 26,300 $ 31,650 $ 1st-5th 7-11. $ 36,305 $ 38,900 $ 38,800 $ 31,450 $ 32,800 $ 37,100 $ 6th-8th 12-14. $ 37,400 $ 39,900 $ 40,590 $ 33,625 $ 36,100 $ 39,015 $ 24,600 9th-12th 15-18 $ 39,820 $ 41,900 $ 42,350 $ - $ 39,200 $ 41,150 $ 24,600 Private College 19-22
$ $ $ $ $
McDonogh 24,350 33,950 38,100 40,250 42,440
Friends $ $ $ $ $
25,400 29,200 34,300 37,800 39,600
$ $ $ $ $
St. Pauls 25,000 29,000 33,980 38,220 40,250
-The "Predicted Avg Totals" is the product of the average per grade level and the number of years spent in the grade levels. -Calculated for as the child gets older, how much of the grand total for the Predicted Avg Total the parent has left to pay. We then attached this value to each individual child and summed the values for the family. *Please note that the children are only connected to the primary member of the family. -Result: *11 of the population households have school age children, a 10% increase from the Q2 analysis. *9 of the at risk households are repeats from the Q2 analysis. Test #3- FINANCIAL COMMITMENT: -Wanted to identify the degree of which the members feel financially committed to the club in regards to a "financial" or "lack of use" resignation. -Used the Member Spending report from NorthStar with the financial transactions of the households merged into the primary "bill to" member #. ***Included all member types in the report to make sure to include if someone from the population has a Non Res bill to member. -Separated and summed the Mandatory (capital, social, & golf dues) and All Other Charged transactions for each household. -Determined those with null All Other Charges are the members that only pay their dues. -Calculated the ratio per household within the population of mandatory charges in relation to total spending to the club. -Calculated the same ratio and averaged the results for all resident A, B, D, H, & J members; 67% -Assumed those with a greater ratio than the membership average are at risk. -Combined the populations member numbers and bill to member numbers to determine the result of the individual. -Result: *227 of the population have a mandatory spending ratio greater than the membership average; showing no change in the quanity of households from the Q2 analysis. *191 of the at risk members are repeats from the Q2 analysis. Test #4- RETIREMENT PLANNING:
-Wanted to identify members who are or above the age of 75 and possibly experiencing the financial stresses of retirement. -Found the most common zip codes for the current membership. -Isolated the population from the total membership. -Calculated the populations age and removed anyone below the age of 75. -Modified the list so any duplicating member numbers only identidied by home address; unless other address was FL. -Received the predicted retirement costs for the most common zip codes and assigned any "other" the average cost. -Instructed to use 93 years of age as the given life expectancy. -Referenced the "Period Life Table" from the Social Security Administration website (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) to calculate the "Actuarial Life". -Calculated the "Actuarial Life" field by following the logic of if the current age is greater than 92, then give the "Period of Life" table's expected life and if the current age is less than or equal to 92 then give the difference of 93 and the current age. -Concluded with the retirment expenses being the product of their Actuarial Life and their retirement cost. -Results: *35 of the population are or above the age of 75 and possibly facing financial retirement stresses; a 3% increase from the Q2 analysis. *32 of the at risk members are repeats from the Q2 analysis. Ex hi bi t s -EEx hi bi t #1 : A combined list from the current analysis of those who tested positive in one or more of the situational tests. *Select the "+" to expand the member name and see their test(s). -EEx hi bi t #2 : A list of the repeating members who tested positive in one or more of the situational tests from the current analysis compared to the Q2 analysis. -EEx hi bi t #3 : The members from the Q2 analysis who have since resigned.
$ $ $ $ $
Maryvale 26,100 26,550
Loyola $ $ $ $ $
24,820 25,770
$ $ $ $ $ $
AVERAGE 13,915 22,261 26,811 34,868 33,636 54,840
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
Predicted Avg Totals 27,831 22,261 134,056 104,605 134,543 219,360 642,656