RETAIL: STEADY AS SHE GOES

The reports of death of the mall — and of retail real estate overall — have been greatly exaggerated for the past 40 years or so, as various pundits cited urbanization, catalogs, TV shopping and e-commerce as challengers. But what could have been a real death blow, the COVID-19 pandemic, has merely been a blip, as shoppers have returned and new development has been disciplined. The result is an industry that has returned to health, as we can see by the numbers

102.8

Estimated retail square feet per capita in the U.S. in 2023, down slightly from 103.2 square feet in 2022 (CBRE U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2023)

$2,000

Annual rent per square foot in 2022 for Fifth Avenue between 49th and 60th Streets, the most expensive retail district in the world (Cushman & Wakefield, Main Streets 2022)

76 Million

The amount of space absorbed by U.S. retail tenants in 2022, the highest level since 2017 (JLL: United States Retail Outlook Q4 2022)

5%

The delinquency rate as a percentage of sales for CMS retail loans (excluding malls) in 2022, down from a peak of 9.4% in July 2020 (Marcus & Millichap, 2023 Retail Investment Forecast)

91.3%

Shopping center occupancy rate in 2022 (NCREIF, ICSC Research)

85%

The percentage of retail sales that take place in brick-and-mortar stores (Statista)