The Shia Crescent is Turning Against the Iranian Regime by المجلة

Two of Africa’s Most Populous and Powerful Countries Fight for Survival

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Can Oman’s New Leader Uphold Sultan Qaboos’s Peaceful Legacy?

Issue 1783- january- 17/01/2020

The Shia Crescent is Turning Against the Iranian Regime www.majalla.com

Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Almost two weeks have passed since Soleimani’s assassination, and Iran and its proxies are still coming to terms with the implications that such a loss will have on them going forward. Soleimani was more than just a general, he was the mastermind who played a major leadership role in Iranallied forces in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen. This week’s cover story by Hanin Ghaddar focuses on how Soleimani’s death has impacted Tehran and its allies, namely Lebanese Hezbollah who lost their military commander in the process, Iraq which is seeing increased activity from US forces, and the Islamic Republic itself which is witnessing wide mass protests after it admitted to downing the Ukrainian passenger aircraft last week. The Nile River is Egypt’s only source of fresh water, to say that it heavily relies on the river to maintain its farmlands would be an understatement. As a result, Ethiopia’s construction of its Renaissance Dam has caused anxiety for the Egyptian state since it could potentially reduce its fresh water supply. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s project promises to transform the energy deficient country into a major electricity exporter, so one can see why it is keen on finishing the construction of the project. Understandably, this has created a diplomatic crisis that both nations hoped to resolve in Washington last week, but negotiations did not produce any concrete solution. Yasmine ElGeressi writes on the historical background of this conflict and what can be done to prevent further escalation between both states. From minstrel shows to costume parties, the practice of blackface has and still is a controversial one mostly due to the fact that it is used to dehumanize black people and present them as caricatures. While it has largely waned in the West and most view it as offensive, the same cannot be said for the Arab world. The act is prevalent in many Arabic films, as few people in the region view it as racist or dehumanizing. Yasmine El-Geressi writes on the use of blackface in Arabic pop culture and interviews Professor Eve M. Troutt, a scholar on Modern Middle Eastern history as she gives us insight into the reasons why Arabs are indifferent to the insensitive practice and how the region’s inhabitants view the Middle East’s history of slavery might play a role in this indifference. Sayyed Darwish was the father of Arabic music, and despite his short life-span of 32 years he managed to become an everlasting icon for all Egyptian. His revolutionary songs captured the spirit of Egyptian masses who were inspired by his words to go into the street and protest against British occupation. Safa Azeb has recently conducted an interview with Mohamed Sayyed Darwish, the late composer’s grandson, as he talks about his grandfather’s life, marriages, friendships and the conspiracy which holds that he was poisoned by the British occupational forces. He also gave us insight into the Sayyed Darwish Association which aims to preserve his legacy.

17/01/20

www.majalla.com/eng

Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

‫الوكيل اإلعالني‬ ،www.alkhaleejiah.com :‫موقع إلكتروني‬ hq@alkhaleejiah.com :‫بريد إلكتروني‬ + 9714 3 914440 :‫ دبي‬،920 000 417 : ‫من داخل اململكة‬ +44 207 404 6950 :‫ لندن‬+00764 537 331 :‫باريس‬ +966 11 441 1444 : ‫ومن مختلف الدول‬

- ‫ طريق مكة‬- ‫ حي املؤتمرات‬- ‫مرخص لها الرياض‬ ‫تقاطع التخصصى‬ +44 207 831 8181 :‫ لندن‬- 4419933 ‫ هاتف‬:‫الرياض‬

A Weekly Political News Magazine

30 The New Anti-Americanism

Issue 1783- January- 17/01/2020

26 Soleimani Was More Valuable in Politics Than in War

22 The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Can Stil Be Salvaged

36 The Prevalence of Blackface in Arab Pop Culture

34 In Soleimani Aftermath, Iran is Weakened at Home and Abroad

Mohamed Sayyed Darwish to Majalla: My Grandfather Was Poisoned By the British Occupational Forces 3

17/01/20

44 The Difference a Healthy Diet Can Make

napshot

17/01/20

Lightning strikes as a column of ash surrounds the crater of Taal Volcano as it erupts on January 12, 2020 as seen from Tagaytay city, Cavite province, Philippines. Local authorities evacuated residents near Taal Volcano as it began spewing ash up to a kilometer high Sunday afternoon. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology has raised the alert level to four out of five, warning that a hazardous eruption could take place anytime. (Getty)

17/01/20

napshot

A Syrian kid stands in mud near the tents at 90 tents capacity of Little Fida Camp hosting Syrian families who have been forced to displace due to the attacks carried out by Assad regime and Russia, trying to live under harsh winter conditions in Idlib, Syria on January ,07 2020. Syrians have difficulty in finding a living place due to the lack of camp sites, infrastructure and the excessive amount of refugees in the camps. (Getty)

17/01/20

eekly news

Our Enemy is Here›: Iran Protesters Demand that Leaders Quit after Plane Downed

Protests erupted across Iran for a second day on Sunday, increasing pressure on the Islamic Republic’s leadership after it admitted its military shot down a Ukrainian airliner by accident, despite days of denials that Iranian forces were to blame. Other posts showed demonstrators outside a second university and a group of protesters marching to Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom) Square, as well as protests in

Tehran did before it agreed to a nuclear deal with world powers in 2015, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday in a televised speech. “We are enriching more uranium before the deal was reached ... Pressure has increased on Iran but we continue to progress,” Rouhani said. Iran has gradually scaled back its commitments under the nuclear deal in retaliation to Washington’s withdrawal from the pact in 2018 and its reimposition of sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy.

other cities. Some state-affiliated media carried reports of the university protests, which followed demonstrations on Saturday sparked by Iran’s admission that its military mistakenly shot down the plane on Wednesday, killing all 176 aboard, at a time when Tehran feared U.S. air strikes. Days after admitting it accidentally shot down, Iran has announced that those responsible have been arrested.

Erdogan says Turkey Starting Troop Iran›s Nuclear Enrichment at Higher Deployment to Libya Level than Before 2015 Deal Turkey is beginning to send troops into Iran is now enriching more uranium than

17/01/20

Libya in support of the internationally recognised government in Tripoli, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday, days before a summit in Berlin which will address the Libyan conflict. Last week, Turkey and Russia urged Libya’s warring parties to declare a ceasefire. However, despite talks in Moscow aimed at halting Khalifa Haftar’s months-long campaign to seize the Libyan capital, the two sides were unable to reach an agreement when Haftar failed to sign a binding truce on Monday. On Thursday, Erdogan said Turkey was starting the deployment of its troops to Libya and that it would use all its diplomatic and military means to ensure stability to its south.

promised on Thursday to speed up work on achieving national goals set two years ago by President Vladimir Putin across a wide range of policy areas from health to infrastructure.

U.S. House Sends Trump Impeachment Charges to Senate for Trial Syrian Airstrikes in Idlib Leave at Least 21 Dead Despite Ceasefire

Russian Government Resigns as Putin Proposes Constitutional At least 21 civilians have been killed Changes in airstrikes in Idlib amid a continuing offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s forces, despite a supposed ceasefire in Syria’s last opposition-held province. The strikes, carried out by the Syrian air force and its Russian allies, hit a market and industrial zone in Idlib city in a ferocious attack on Wednesday that destroyed several buildings and set cars on fire, leaving the torched corpses of motorists trapped inside. Footage from the scene showed houses on the same street levelled as rescue workers struggled to free those trapped under the rubble. Children and rescue workers were among the dead, the UKbased monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said.

Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on Wednesday launched a major political shake-up, replacing his prime minister Dmitry Medvedev and proposing a series of changes to Russia’s constitution, in what was seen as an attempt to create options for retaining power after his presidential term expires in 2024. Then a few hours after the speech, The Democratic-led House of Medvedev announced he and the entire Representatives voted on Wednesday cabinet were stepping down at Putin’s to send two formal charges against request. Putin said Medvedev, a long- President Donald Trump to the time ally who held the presidency for Senate, clearing the way for only him between 2008 and 2012, will now the third impeachment trial of a U.S. become deputy chairman of Russia’s president to begin in earnest next national security council. ussia’s new week. Lawmakers voted 228 to 193 prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, to give the Senate, controlled by Trump’s fellow Republicans, the task of putting him on trial on charges of abuse of power for asking Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden and obstruction of Congress for blocking testimony and documents sought by Democratic lawmakers. The vote, which also approved a team of seven Democratic lawmakers named by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to serve as prosecutors in the trial, was largely along party lines. The -100seat Senate is expected to acquit Trump, keeping him in office, given that none of its 53 Republicans has voiced support for removing him, a step that under the U.S. Constitution would require a twothirds majority.

17/01/20

over story

The Shia Crescent is Turning Against the Iranian Regime Tehran is Stumbling for a Plan as it Faces its Worst Ever Crisis without Soleimani 10

17/01/20

by Hanin Ghaddar

Iranians gather in front of a University and light candles in memory of the victims of the Ukraine Boeing 737 passenger plane in Tehrans business district on January ,11 2020. (Getty)

For the Iranian regime, Qassem Soleimani was much more than a high rank commander. He was the equivalent of Iran’s Wali al-Faqih in the region. As the top reference of all of Iran’s proxies, every Lebanese, Palestinian, Iraqi, Syrian and Yemeni Iran-backed militia turn to him for orders, logistics and plans. He was the glue that kept everything together, and meticulously orchestrated Iran’s regional operations; military, ideological and economic. With Soleimani out of the picture, Iran has lost more than they can admit, but most significantly, they will have to face a new era of American pressure, without the man who could’ve fathomed a strategy to counter it. In the past two decades, and as Al-Qaeda and ISIS threats against the US increased, Iran’s regional operations were put on hold by the US because Iran’s regional behavior was not considered a direct threat to the US as much as the Sunni terrorism did. That attitude allowed Iran to expand exponentially through Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, without any considerable containment by the international community. Except for the recent sanctions by the US on Iran and some of its proxies, Iran’s regional hegemony did not have to suffer major losses. However, the assassination of Soleimani has turned the tables and it seems that after years of military leniency, the US has moved Iran’s terrorism up to the level of serious threat to the US. Accordingly, there will be multiple challenges that Iran will have to deal with in the coming months.

LEBANON As its role in the region expanded and strengthened, Hezbollah used the opportunity to take over Lebanon. They forced themselves onto state institutions, won the 2018 parliamentary elections, and formed the government of their choosing. The only two challenges that Hezbollah had to face were the repercussions of the sanctions on Iran – leading to their own financial crisis, and the recent street protests – which hit their credibility and lead to the resignation of their government.

17/01/20

With Soleimani’s assassination, Hezbollah feels more exposed than ever. Not only they have lost their interlocutor and leader, they have mainly lost their military commander. However, all in all, Hezbollah was able to maneuver these challenges and did not have to abandon its access to sate institutions. With Iran steadily winning over Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah felt secure in its own vulnerable – yet sheltered – bubble. With Soleimani’s assassination, Hezbollah feels more exposed than ever. Not only they have lost their interlocutor and leader, they have mainly lost their military commander. When Mustafa Badreddine was killed in Syria in 2016, no official appointment was made to replace him. Instead, Soleimani became the default military commander for Hezbollah and other Shia militias fighting under his jurisdiction. Afterward, Soleimani apparently decided to adopt a more hands-on approach to Hezbollah’s military operations. While veteran commanders such as Ibrahim Aqil, Fuad Shukr, and Talal Hamiyah have become Soleimani’s link to Hezbollah’s military divisions, they do not enjoy the trust and advisory capacities that Imad Mughniyah and Mustafa Badreddine held. In this sense, Hezbollah has lost two major leverages: First, its military commander that knew exactly when Hezbollah should be deployed and used, and when they shouldn’t. Second, Hezbollah has lost the man who was their link to other militias throughout the region. Without Soleimani, Hezbollah will have to look more internally, to their Lebanon’s challenges, and probably let go of their regional role until Khamenei decides otherwise. But even in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s formula of stability vs. change is not working anymore. The international community which has always

over story

preferred the stability of Lebanon to any effort to contain Hezbollah is today clearly reconsidering this priority. Lebanon’s stability is in danger anyway with the failing economy and the State’s near bankruptcy. This could be an opportunity for the international community – mainly the US – to contain Hezbollah. Recent developments in the region might push for more pressure on Hezbollah.

IN SYRIA Like Lebanon, the US absence allowed Iran to fill in the gap and protect the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. Soleimani was the master-mind who lead his Lebanese, Iraqi, Afghani, and Pakistani troops throughout the country to achieve two goals: maintain the Assad regime, and boost Iran’s interests in Syria. In fact, the Syrian crisis was a good opportunity for Iran to enhance its regional presence, thereby creating the Shia Crescent that allowed an interrupted presence and power of Iran’s IRGC from Tehran to Beirut. Despite the Israeli attacks and the Russian involvement – both of which caused Iran a number of problems – Soleimani still managed to maneuver most of them, by maintaining a considerable presence on the ground and a strong influence over the regime. Without Soleimani, Iran’s power in Syria today will be jeopardized. Who is going to lead the militias? Who will negotiate with the Russians? It is important to note that right after Soleimani’s assassination, Russian President Vladimir Putin

Iran understood Trump’s administration redline, and while its media was celebrating the “victorious” revenge against the US, more Iranians were killed

made an unplanned visit to Syria – an indication of him messaging the Iranian regime that Syria is under Russia’s control and that Iran should not think of attacking any US bases in Syria. This is a sign of the challenges that Iran will face in Syria moving forward. In addition, it has become clear that the Shia crescent – with its land bridge – will be interrupted one way or another, mainly around the Iraqi-Syrian border at Al-Bou Kamal in Deir Ezzour, which Soleimani himself celebrated not long time ago. Soleimani’s operatives in Syria will continue implementing his plan, until policy or military shifts occur and throw everyone off.

IRAQ Iraq is the most interesting story in Iran’s saga. Soleimani was killed in Iraq. He was assassinated along with PMF leader Abdel Mahdi Al-Muhandis. Still, all that Iran could do is attack US military bases without causing

17/01/20

Lebanese demonstrators south slogans in the capital Beirut on December 2019 ,15. (Getty)

Without Soleimani, Iran’s power in Syria today will be jeopardized. Who is going to lead the militias? Who will negotiate with the Russians? is doing in Lebanon. However, the street has established itself as a very powerful tool that will also impose itself on Iraq’s political dynamics, especially that it has become clear that the US is not going to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

IRAN As soon as the Iranian government acknowledged responsibly for the Ukrainian plane crash, multiple demonstrations took off and turned into anti-regime protests. For the first time, the Iranian regime is facing multiple challenges in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon at the same time, and it doesn’t seem that they have many options to counter these challenges. any US casualties. Iran understood Trump’s administration redline, and while its media was celebrating the “victorious” revenge against the US, more Iranians were killed: 56 Iranians were killed during a stampede at Solimani’s funeral, and then 176 were killed during the Ukrainian plane crash. Meanwhile, Iraq’s PMF leadership seem to be both terrified and divided. The US threats of more military responses seem to be deterring them from any retaliation, but the Iranian pressure on their leadership to respond could also put them in a difficult position. No matter what they do, they are challenged – and will remain challenged – by the continuing street protests in Iraq that have increased and intensified in terms of antiIran rhetoric. Iran can push for more access within Iraqi state institutions, and further influence government formation – in a similar way that Hezbollah’s

17/01/20

This crisis is by far the worst crisis that the regime has faced, and without Soleimani, it looks like they are stumbling for a plan. As long as the protests in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon continue, this crisis will only deepen. Although the assassination of Soleimani was probably not part of a new American strategy for the region, it has started a new era in the US-Iran conflict, where maximum pressure will continue, accompanied with a strengthened US presence, and an increased Iranian deterrence. The Iranian regime was certainly shaken by the moment of Soleimani’s assassination. And despite the victorious rhetoric and conspiracy theories, they know very well that any action against US interests in the region or elsewhere will only lead to a devastating response. Iran is crippled by both the US deterrence and internal protests, and no option is a good option. * Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

olitics

Two of Africaâ€™s Most Populous and Powerful Countries Fight for Survival Can Egypt and Ethiopia Break Their Deadlock Over Water? 14

17/01/20

It is often said that the future of water wars is looming as tensions over water scarcity increase across the world. But while there are few places as tense as the River Nile, the situation today seems a far cry from last year. conflict» over the issue.

HIGH STAKES

A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 2019 ,26. (Getty)

by Yasmine El-Geressi Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan began US-sponsored negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in November and were expected to conclude them by January 15, but despite progress, the talks failed to achieve a comprehensive agreement this week over the giant hydropower dam on the Blue Nile that has sparked a diplomatic crisis between Cairo and Addis Adaba. It is often said that the future of water wars is looming as tensions over water scarcity increase across the world. But while there are few places as tense as the River Nile, the situation today seems a far cry from last year, when the International Crisis Group warned against «violent

17/01/20

The construction of the 5$ billion dam, the biggest in Africa and seventh largest in the world, is approximately 70 percent complete and is expected to provide muchneeded electricity to Ethiopia’s 100 million people as one of the world’s poorest countries hopes to transform itself from a symbol of poverty to Africa’s biggest power exporter and its most dynamic economy. Ethiopia has an acute shortage of electricity, with %65 of its population not connected to the grid. The energy generated will be enough to have its citizens connected and sell the surplus power to neighbouring countries including Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouthi and Eritrea, many of whom have huge power deficits. Egypt, with a similar population, sees damming the Nile upstream as an existential threat and is seeking to protect its main source of fresh as it fears the Nile dam will reduce its share of the river and leave the country with dwindling options, particularly for the millions of farmers who depend on its waters to irrigate their land. Cairo fears that even a temporary reduction in the flow while the reservoir fills up could cause irreversible salination and desertification of its farmlands. The north African country is already facing major water scarcity, with the United Nations predicting that it will face an “absolute water crisis” by 2025. Another one the country›s main concerns is that if the water flow drops it could affect Lake Nasser, the reservoir further downriver, behind Egypt›s Aswan Dam, which produces most of Egypt›s electricity. The stakes could hardly be higher for two of Africa’ most populous and powerful countries, and therefore

olitics

any ongoing showdown between them is a major threat to peace. Ethiopia’ Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister Abiy Ahmed warned last year that while he would like to avoid war, if there’s a need to go to war over the dispute with Egypt his country could muster millions of people, but he said only negotiation can resolve the current deadlock.

HOW IT ALL BEGAN A 1929 treaty (and a subsequent one in 1959) gave Egypt and Sudan rights to nearly all of the Nile waters, while denying upstream Nile Basin nations any right to the water, even if sourced from their own territories. The colonial-era document originally agreed to between Egypt and Great Britain also gave Egypt veto powers over any projects by upstream countries that would affect its share of the waters. Neither agreement made any allowance for the water needs of the other riparian states that were not parties to the deal, including Ethiopia, whose Blue Nile contributes much of the river waters. Ethiopia has said it should not be bound by the decadesold treaty and went ahead and started building its dam at the start of the Arab Spring and the fall of Hosni Mubarak’s regime in March 2011 without consulting Egypt. Some accuse Adaba of deliberately picking this moment of maximum distraction to begin work on a project that would radically alter the Nile’s flow. As the 1929 treaty made it difficult for upstream countries to secure foreign financing for projected aimed at exploiting Nile waters, Ethiopia chose to self-finance the project, forcing banks to buy government issue bonds to build the dam.

A conflict between the two states, which are both US allies, could draw global interest as it would put millions of civilians at risk. At the very least, American engagement reduces that risk.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE The International Crisis Group warned last year that the countries «could be drawn into conflict» over the dam, but there are a few promising signs that this could be averted. Egypt sought the intervention of the US on the impasse, after President Sisi requested that President Trump mediate the conflict, which Ethiopia was initially reluctant to accept and has in the past rejected international mediation. The fact that the US intervened, with the US Treasury’s Steven, shows the seriousness of the situation - and the need to break the deadlock. A conflict between the two states, which are both US allies, could draw global interest as it would put millions of civilians at risk. At the very least, American engagement reduces that risk. The current impasse is over the timeline for the dam’s reservoir. Ethiopia has proposed a three-

17/01/20

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi (L) and Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed (R) chat during the 32nd African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10 February 2019. (EPA)

year fill period whereas Egypt would prefer that it take over a decade. The preliminary agreement, brokered by the US and the World Bank president, is short on details, and will require more delicate negotiations before it is finalised when foreign and water ministers meet again in the US capital at the end of the month, but it does appear to represent a lowering in tensions. The main question now is whether Egypt will be satisfied with the guarantees given by Ethiopia on the amount of water to be released during periods of drought. The parties have not appeared to agree on how these provisions will be implemented. However, observers note that there is political will to continue talks. Last year, The International Crisis Group produced a report that outlined a two-stepped approach the three countries should adopt to reach a solution. It said that first, they should build confidence by agreeing upon terms for filling the damâ€™s reservoir that do not harm downstream

17/01/20

The stakes could hardly be higher for two of Africaâ€™ most populous and powerful countries, and therefore any ongoing showdown between them is a major threat to peace. countries. Ethiopia should also agree to stagger the fill rate so that it picks up pace in years with plentiful rains, which would minimise disruption of water flows. Next, they should negotiate a new, transboundary framework for resource sharing that balances the needs of countries up and down the Nile basin and offers a framework for averting conflict over future projects.

olitics

Can Oman’s New Leader Uphold Sultan Qaboos’s Peaceful Legacy? A Flagging Economy Threatens the Sultanate’s Role as a Trusted Mediator by Nikita Lalwani, Josh Rubin, Sam Winter-Levy After 49 years under Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Oman has a new ruler. The Arab world’s longest-serving leader died on January 10, ending nearly five decades

of transformational rule during which he remade his war-torn nation into an oasis of stability and gained a reputation as a trusted mediator between rival powers. Qaboos had no children and therefore no heir apparent. But shortly after his death, Oman’s Royal Family and Defense Councils expedited the country’s formal succession process, inviting state television to

17/01/20

broadcast the opening of a sealed envelope Qaboos had left behind naming his preferred successor: former Minister of Heritage and Culture Haitham bin Tariq al-Said. Long floated as a potential successor, Haitham is a cousin of Qaboos. He is described by those who have met him as quiet, steady, and a good listener. The -65year-old University of Oxford graduate spent more than a decade in the Foreign Ministry and worked on (largely unsuccessful) attempts to diversify Oman’s oil-dependent economy before his appointment as heritage and culture minister in 2002. In his first public remarks as sultan, Haitham pledged to “follow the same line as the late sultan, and the principles that he asserted for the foreign policy of our country, of peaceful coexistence among nations and people, and good neighborly behavior of non-interference in the affairs of others.” That policy of neighborly non-interference allowed Qaboos to play a vital role mediating between the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern countries, backchanneling between governments that do not maintain formal diplomatic relations, and even helping to lay the groundwork for the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran, the United States, and five world powers. But whether his successor can continue to serve as a regional pressure valve will partly depend on his ability to relieve pressures that have gradually mounted at home. At a time of soaring tensions between the United States and Iran, the new sultan faces dwindling oil reserves, a bleak fiscal outlook—and a short and unappealing list of places he can turn to for help. Oman›s new sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, makes his first speech after swearing in at the Royal Family Council in Muscat, Oman,vJan. 2020 ,11. (Oman News Agency)

BIG SHOES TO FILL Qaboos won praise for modernizing his small coastal country and presiding over nearly five decades of peace and economic growth. When he overthrew his father in a bloodless, British-backed coup in 1970, Oman had just six miles of paved road and three schools. Today, Oman boasts some 18,000 miles of paved road and more than 1,500 schools. During the first decade of his reign, Qaboos enlisted support from the Iranian, Jordanian, and British governments to defeat an insurgency in the southern Dhofar region and deftly united the country by inviting senior rebels to join his government. But by anticipating and responding to public pressure, Qaboos helped Oman avoid the fate of some of its neighbors during the Arab Spring; by 2013, his government had largely quieted protests by expanding certain powers of the

17/01/20

As Oman’s relatively small oil reserves decline—the country has just over five billion barrels left, enough for another 15 years or so—and investors begin to question whether the government will be able to repay its debts, the country will face some difficult choices. bicameral legislature, strengthening the office of the public prosecutor, and implementing a variety of reforms to address rising unemployment. Under Qaboos, Oman also became a force for stability in a turbulent region. The country was one of just three Arab nations to maintain ties with Egypt after its government signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1979. And after the Iranian Revolution that year, Oman retained relations with the new regime in Tehran. Two years later, it joined Saudi Arabia and four other nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Muscat stayed neutral during the bloody Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and maintained diplomatic ties with both Iraq and Kuwait even as it joined the multinational effort to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s forces in 1990. More recently, Oman’s government brokered the release in 2010 and 2011 of three American hikers detained in Iran. The sultanate subsequently hosted backchannel talks between the United States and Iran in the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear agreement, and its banks facilitated some of the financial relief included in that deal. The sultanate also helped secure the release of American and European hostages from Yemen in 2016 ,2015, and 2018. Over the last 14 months, Muscat has hosted individual visits by rival leaders who seldom see eye to eye: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas; Saudi Vice Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. At the same time, Oman has reportedly hosted and mediated talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi

olitics

rebels aimed at ending Yemen’s devastating five-year war. Haitham has already publicly committed to maintaining Oman’s role as an independent mediator, and most observers expect him to continue his predecessor’s tradition of quiet diplomacy, serving as a bridge between the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis. But autonomy in foreign policy has been predicated on Oman’s economic independence, and low oil prices and dwindling reserves have thrown that into doubt.

BOOM OR BUST Ever since 2016, in the wake of a sharp decline in oil prices, the Omani government has run budget deficits of around 10$ billion per year. These deficits pushed the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 5 percent in 2014 to around 50 percent in 2018. In March 2019, Moody’s joined most of the other major ratings agencies in downgrading Oman’s bonds to junk status. But repeated attempts to diversify Oman’s economy away from oil have been mostly unsuccessful. In 1995, Qaboos announced Vision 2020, an ambitious attempt to cut Oman’s oil dependence and boost innovation. But 2020 has now arrived, and the oil industry still accounts for around 70 percent of government revenues and almost half of GDP. Vision 2020 has since been renamed Vision 2040. Perhaps the country’s most pressing economic

But as he confronts rising tensions in the region and an unfavorable economic forecast at home, the new sultan will have to work to maintain the domestic credibility and regional stature that his predecessor enjoyed.

concern is unemployment, especially among young Omanis: the unemployment rate reached 17 percent in 2017, but it is higher among young people, who make up half of the population. In 2011, during the Arab Spring, Oman witnessed its first serious protests in decades when thousands of demonstrators took to the streets to protest corruption and, above all, the lack of jobs. In response, Qaboos reshuffled his cabinet and pledged to create 50,000 new government jobs. Many of these public sector jobs were in the security sector, especially the Royal Oman Police; in many Omani towns, the grandest buildings are sprawling new police stations. Although Oman is generally known for its tolerance of immigrants and its diversity—a legacy of Oman’s past as a seafaring empire—resentment

17/01/20

Sultan Qaboos bin takes the sapute at Al-Alam Palace on November ,26 2010 in Muscat, Oman. Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh are on a State Visit to the Middle East. (Getty)

the country has just over five billion barrels left, enough for another 15 years or so—and investors begin to question whether the government will be able to repay its debts, the country will face some difficult choices. One option would be for Oman to follow Bahrain’s lead and accept a bailout from some of its wealthier GCC neighbors. But any such rescue package from the GCC would probably come at the cost of Oman’s independent foreign policy. Another option would entail turning eastward to China. China is by far the largest purchaser of Omani oil, and it recently invested 10.7$ billion in Duqm, a new port positioned halfway between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, the two strategic chokepoints that flank the Arabian Peninsula. For now, China’s influence in Oman has posed no threat to Oman’s sovereignty. But just as a bailout from the GCC would likely restrict Oman’s independent foreign policy, so too would excessive reliance on Beijing. The International Monetary Fund could be another source of external funding, but no Omani government will welcome the austerity measures likely to accompany an IMF bailout. Far better for Oman to make the necessary economic reforms in advance and on its own terms. Yet even that approach will not be risk-free. Oman has enjoyed remarkable political stability, but it’s unclear how Omanis will respond if the government raises taxes or cuts its generous fuel and electricity subsidies, especially with a new and relatively unknown sultan at the helm.

NO GOOD OPTIONS

With sufficient political will, none of these economic challenges are insurmountable. And Oman would not be the only country to benefit if its finances—and with them, its independent foreign policy—are put on a sounder footing. Roughly 90 percent of Omanis have never lived under another leader, but the fact that Haitham was hand selected by the publicly revered Qaboos will endow him with a degree of domestic legitimacy. And the modest spike in oil prices following the U.S. killing of Iranian commander Qasem Suleimani will provide temporary fiscal relief. But as he confronts rising tensions in the region and an unfavorable economic forecast at home, the new sultan will have to work to maintain the domestic credibility and regional stature that his predecessor enjoyed.

As Oman’s relatively small oil reserves decline—

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

has flared recently at expats’ dominance of the workforce. Expats make up more than 40 percent of the population and in some industries outnumber natives eight to one. In response, the government has undertaken “Omanization,” an attempt to force companies to hire more Omanis instead of foreigners. So far, the effort has had limited success. Companies complain about profitability, arguing that making space for Omani nationals requires creating unproductive and unnecessary roles; when expatriates leave the country, some companies eliminate their jobs instead of hiring Omanis to fill them.

17/01/20

olitics

The U.S.-Iraqi Relationship Can Still Be Salvaged The Trump Administration Should Mend Fences and Retain a Vital Troop Presence by Meghan L. O›Sullivan One of the most dramatic consequences of killing Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani is unfolding at a rapid pace: the severing of ties between the United States and Iraq. There is still time to salvage this most critical relationship, but doing so will depend on the willingness and ability of the Trump administration to change the tone of the conversation

in very short order. The current U.S. approach— calling for sanctions against Iraq if it demands the exit of American forces—risks unnecessarily creating an enemy out of a friend. On January 5, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel all foreign forces from Iraqi territory, including the 5,200 U.S. forces currently in the country at the invitation of its government. Iraqi parliamentarians had threatened

17/01/20

The current U.S. approach— calling for sanctions against Iraq if it demands the exit of American forces—risks unnecessarily creating an enemy out of a friend. U.S. troops. Similarly, Iraq’s most influential religious leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has been a voice of moderation and indirectly supportive of the United States’ presence in Iraq, vigorously criticized the strike on Soleimani through his representative at Friday prayers. Suffice it to say that U.S.-Iraqi relations have not been worse since Saddam Hussein sat comfortably in a Baghdad palace adorned with multiple giant replicas of his head. Abdul-Mahdi, in his capacity as caretaker prime minister, is now obliged to discuss the departure of U.S. forces with Washington. Those U.S. forces are in Iraq under an agreement formalized by an exchange of letters between foreign ministers, so the prime minister—not the parliament—holds the cards. Rather than taking the resolution for a done deal, the U.S. administration should approach this conversation with the objective of easing tensions, buying time, and ultimately finding a way to enable some U.S. troops to stay in Iraq.

US President Donald Trump and Barham Saleh, President of Iraq, hold a meeting in New York, September ,24 2019, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. (Getty)

Why should this be the U.S. objective? Some Americans will no doubt be surprised to learn that there are still U.S. forces in Iraq (even if the number is much lower than the original peak of approximately 170,000). And many will likely think it a good idea to get them home. But as the United States learned the hard way in 2011, when President Barack Obama made the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, such moves on other occasions, such as last February, having a military—as well as diplomatic—presence when U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that he in Iraq is essential to the stability of the Middle East wanted to keep American troops in Iraq to keep an and the protection of U.S. interests, at least for the eye on Iran. foreseeable future. This time is different. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi worked to defuse the political firestorm that arose out of Trump’s tweet last year. But on Sunday he stood in support of the resolution to evict

17/01/20

A VITAL PRESENCE The U.S. presence in Iraq is necessary to prevent ISIS, from reconstituting itself and posing the sort of

olitics

threat that it did in earlier years. While Iraqi troops deserve credit for evicting ISIS from Iraqi cities, the U.S.-led coalition provided essential support. ISIS still has capabilities and followers in parts of Iraq and Syria, and even before Soleimani’s killing, it had begun to take advantage of instability and uncertainty in both countries to reestablish itself. The recent announcement that the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is suspending its operations to focus on preparing for Iranian retaliation is sobering. And ISIS is not the only challenge the United States helps Iraq resist. Every Iraqi government has had the unenviable task of balancing Iraqi interests against those of outsiders, including Iran. Without a U.S. presence, Baghdad will be much weaker, with strength accruing to Tehran. As long as the United States sees containing Iran as a fundamental interest, its support for Iraq remains crucial. Some glibly say that Iran is already in control of Iraq, but this portrayal is simplistic. Without an American presence in Iraq, Iran would find it easier to further politicize Iraq’s parliament and armed forces, to gain control over oil resources, and to use Iraqi territory to freely ferry supplies to Iranian-supported groups in Syria and Lebanon. Moreover, Iraq is a lynchpin of regional stability—or instability—that affects the worldwide economy by influencing global oil markets. If terrorists are once

The Iraqi government wants to be treated not as an arm of the Iranian regime but as the sovereign entity that the United States has helped nurture and support for the better part of the last 16 years.

again free to proliferate in Iraq, instability will spread throughout the region, which in turn will undermine Iraq’s steady efforts to increase oil production: the country is now OPEC’s second-largest producer and has supplied many of Iran’s markets as Iranian oil has come offline. Americans will be surprised to find that despite new U.S. oil prowess, the price they pay at the pump could rise significantly if political and security concerns interfere with any Middle Eastern producer, including Iraq. For all these reasons, Trump needs to prioritize mending relations with Iraq instead of threatening sanctions against its government. The administration should demonstrate that it understands the difficult circumstances in which Iraq finds itself and reiterate that the United States does not desire to fight its battles with Iran on Iraqi soil.

17/01/20

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (C) and his wife Susan (R) wait to board a helicopter to the US embassy at the terminal at Baghdad International Airport on January 2019 ,9 in the Iraqi capital. (Getty)

The recent announcement that the U.S.led coalition against ISIS is suspending its operations to focus on preparing for Iranian retaliation is sobering. outraged by the violation of Iraqi sovereignty, but sharing it can also help restore the trust that has crumbled between the two sides in just the past few days. The Iraqi government wants to be treated not as an arm of the Iranian regime but as the sovereign entity that the United States has helped nurture and support for the better part of the last 16 years. The Trump administration should bear this in mind. The United States faces a new, more precarious reality in Iraq. But the relationship between the two countries is not completely beyond rescue. Important constituencies still do not want to see relations severed. Even though Abdul-Mahdi stood in support of the resolution to expel U.S. troops on Sunday, he has defended—even to skeptical Iranians—the importance of the U.S.-Iraqi partnership throughout the entire post-Saddam era. Iraqi President Barham Salih made statements in recent days underscoring that the United States and Iraq are close partners. Just short of half of Iraq’s parliamentarians did not show up for the vote on Sunday, as they opposed the call to evict the United States. And many of the thousands of Iraqis who SALVAGING THE PARTNERSHIP have spent the last three months protesting Iran’s Rather than suggesting that the United States will influence in the country likely know that a U.S. keep its troops stationed in Iraq against the will of the withdrawal would tighten Iran’s grip, not loosen Baghdad government, Washington could signal that it. These forces can be harnessed to slow a rush to it is open to discussing the nature and modalities of dismantle the relationship on the Iraqi side. the relationship. It could recommend undertaking a sober, thorough, and bilateral evaluation of the new Such is the first major diplomatic trial resulting security situation, which would assess Iraqi needs and from the United States’ use of military force to capabilities—pledging to recalibrate the U.S. presence remove Soleimani from the battlefield. The Trump administration can navigate this trial successfully, but in accordance with the findings of the review. only if it approaches the coming conversations around The Trump administration could underscore such troop withdrawal as a joint problem-solving exercise commitments with an important initial action: sharing with a country that still has significant interests in with the Iraqi executive the intelligence that suggested preserving its relationship with the United States and an imminent threat to American lives and warranted not as a contentious negotiation with an ally of Iran. the killing of Soleimani on Iraqi soil. Not only might seeing such intelligence help mollify those who are This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

17/01/20

olitics

Soleimani Was More Valuable in Politics Than in War The Islamic Republic Takes Stock of Its Loss by Maysam Behravesh The Islamic Republic of Iran has suffered a loss with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, its most prominent military general. The nature and dimensions of that injury, however, are not a simple function of Soleimani’s high-profile

regional role. The Quds Force, the external operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will outlast its erstwhile commander, as will Iran’s regional security policy. But Soleimani’s assassination must still occasion soul searching within an establishment that failed to foresee the danger to his person

17/01/20

and that has now lost a conspicuous star from its firmament. Viewed from Tehran, the success of the U.S. air strike on Soleimani and his longtime colleague Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, looks like a counterintelligence and security failure on the part of the Islamic Republic. An increasing number of unofficial accounts and news media reports suggest that intelligence leaks and breaches in Soleimani’s security protocol made the general’s effective elimination possible. «We know that the Americans have been chasing the two men for a long time, but without success,” an Iraqi paramilitary leader said on January 4. “It is clear that they [the Americans] have recruited some people close to the two to follow their movements and determine the place and time to assassinate them.» Two people who were aboard the plane that transported Soleimani have reportedly been detained by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces for further investigations. Such incidents suggest that, as I argued in these pages in November, Iran’s revolutionary core, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the country’s security apparatus more generally, have been compromised. But the loss of Soleimani speaks to even deeper and more important problems. In this picture taken on September 2013 ,14, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard›s Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, is seen as people pay their condolences following the death of his mother in Tehran. (Getty)

A fundamental failure of imagination and a fatal miscalculation blinded Iran’s leadership to the imminent attack. Distracted by the controversy surrounding the suppression of nationwide protests at home, and emboldened by having adopted a more offensive posture in the region, Iran’s leaders failed to imagine that tensions could escalate to a new level. They were altogether too sanguine, given that U.S. President Donald Trump, erratic in the best of times and now entangled in a discrediting impeachment plight and surrounded by Iran hawks, had just ordered the fatal targeting of Iranian-backed paramilitary fighters in Iraq and explicitly threatened Tehran over the ensuing breach of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Such overconfidence led Tehran, rather than undertaking special precautions, to arrange a business-as-usual security protocol for the

17/01/20

An increasing number of unofficial accounts and news media reports suggest that intelligence leaks and breaches in Soleimani’s security protocol made the general’s effective elimination possible. commander of a force that the United States had designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization last April. “In this trip, he travelled to Baghdad upon the invitation of Iraqi government officials. This time in particular, he travelled from Syria to Iraq and on a passenger plane [at that], which could even be tracked on aviation websites,” the IRGC Deputy Commander in Chief General Ali Fadavi said on state TV on January 3, after the assassination news spread. Such a relaxed protocol should be surprising. Not only had the organization he helmed been designated a terrorist one but Soleimani enjoyed a celebrity status that made him, personally, an obvious target. He had acquired his star power with the help of voluminous state propaganda after leading the successful fight against ISIS. In the leaked intelligence documents on Iran’s “spy complex” in Iraq, disclosed by the Intercept and The New York Times in November, agents from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence clearly warn about the likely consequences of the public spectacle and personality cult forming around him.

MORE CONTINUITY THAN CHANGE Soleimani’s loss is a wakeup call for the IRGC, which would be wise to study its lessons. But the general’s absence will not undermine the elite force or derail the domestic and regional policies that it executes on the Islamic Republic’s behalf. Iran’s parliament has just underscored this fact by dedicating an additional 223$ million to the Quds Force in the wake of the strike, signaling renewed commitment to maintaining Iran’s

olitics

regional posture. And Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, lost no time in appointing General Esmail Qaani the new head of the Quds Force, indicating that the system under his watch has no shortage of people for leadership roles and that, as he stated, “Soleimani’s path will continue.” At least to save face, the Iranian leader will do all he can to show publicly that the “enemy” did not succeed in degrading the Quds Force. He has long shown himself to be preoccupied with image management and the projection of authority. Back in November, he refused to back down in the face of popular protests and parliamentary objections to an untimely hike in gasoline prices that the state had sanctioned. And he has consistently sought to demonstrate that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy is not succeeding in making the Islamic Republic buckle. Khamenei’s recent message of condolence conveys a similarly resolute intention. “Martyr Soleimani is an international figure of Resistance, and all devotees of Resistance are now his avengers. Let all his friends—as well as all his enemies—know that the line of Resistance Jihad will continue with greater motivation,” the leader said. Fortunately for Khamenei and Qaani, the IRGC is a complex institution with deep roots, making it less than susceptible to “leadership decapitation.” Qaani lacks Soleimani’s charisma and sense of humor, and since leading a vast

Qaani lacks Soleimani’s charisma and sense of humor…..he might never become as smooth and popular as his predecessor.

network of militia groups depends as much on informal connections and friendships as it does on organizational discipline, he might never become as smooth and popular as his predecessor. This deficiency alone, however, will not detract substantially from the Quds Force’s effectiveness under his command. Qaani had officially served as Soleimani’s deputy since 2007. He has directly overseen operations and worked with paramilitary groups in various terrains. Over the course of more than two decades of collaboration and companionship— since Soleimani was first appointed to spearhead the Quds Force in 1997— Qaani and his commander were on almost the same political and ideological wavelength. Both generals

17/01/20

Qasem Soleimani›s long-time lieutenant and the new leader of Quds Force Gen. Esmail Qaani (C), Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Hossein Salami (R) attend a memorial for Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guards› Quds Forces, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Iraq, in Tehran, Iran on January 2020 ,09. (Getty)

sentiments of the Shia militia fighters in order to inspire their sympathy and secure their personal allegiance.

A POLITICAL LOSS The IRGC has suffered a trauma to which it will need to adapt both psychologically and operationally. And Soleimani’s absence leaves a void that Qaani will have to exert real effort to fill. He will probably not be accorded his predecessor’s celebrity status. But given Qaani’s closeness to Soleimani, along with Khamenei’s determination to project steady authority, the assassination is unlikely to have a moderating effect on the IRGC’s overall policy or methodology, let alone interfere with its efficacy. If anything, the soul-searching that the general’s elimination will inspire within the juggernaut will prompt it to act more ruthlessly and with greater calculation. A costly understanding has been forced on Iran’s leadership that the rules of engagement that used to govern relations with adversaries, not least the United States, no longer apply, and a new modus operandi is being established. What is at stake is less and less the pride and prestige of the revolutionary cause that the establishment has been tasked to uphold, and more and more the very survival of that establishment in power.

were among the signatories of a notorious letter from IRGC commanders to the reformist former President Mohammad Khatami following student protests in Tehran in 1999. The letter lashed out at the Khatami administration for sympathizing with anti-establishment protesters and emboldening Iran’s nemeses. It demanded that the West-friendly president take action against anti-revolutionary forces and warned that the signatories were “running out of patience.” Because Qaani does not have the same propensity for pragmatism and independent action that Soleimani did, he might end up acting in more rigid and hard-line ways than his predecessor. Moreover, during this period of mourning, he will probably rush to capitalize on the fresh emotional wounds and enhanced fraternal

17/01/20

Ultimately, the most significant loss to the Islamic Republic is that of a world-famous, popular military commander with the potential to ease the state’s religious ideology into the wave of secular nationalism that has broken across the society, particularly among young Iranians who experienced neither the 1979 revolution nor the Iran-Iraq War. For this reason, the staterun media had begun to promote him as an ideal candidate for Iran’s presidency—and enormous crowds of all kinds showed up for his funeral across Iran. The Islamic Republic has not groomed many such figures. For this reason, it will sorely miss Soleimani for his distinct political value—more, ultimately, than for his leadership acumen in conflict zones. This article was originally published on

olitics

The New Anti-Americanism

How Worries About U.S. Dominance Gave Way to Worries About U.S. Decline by Richard Wike Anti-Americanism has surged in much of the world since U.S. President Donald Trump took office. New polling from the Pew Research Center shows that global ratings for Trump are similar to those President George W. Bush received near the end of his second term (and considerably lower than the high marks President Barack Obama enjoyed throughout his tenure). And

as in the Bush years, the presidentâ€™s unpopularity has led to a sharp decline in overall favorability ratings for the United States. In 2007, the median percentage of respondents who said they had confidence in Bush to do the right thing in world affairs was 21 percent across seven European nations regularly surveyed by Pew: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and

17/01/20

Global opposition to American power has generally come at moments when the United States seemed inclined to project military might around the world with little restraint. an unchecked superpower, unilaterally pursuing its interests, and unconstrained by the international norms and institutions it had played the lead role in constructing. In the Trump era, by contrast, critics are less concerned about the exercise of unrivaled U.S. power than they are about a U.S. retreat—from both global leadership and liberal democracy. Rattled by the lingering effects of the 08-2007 financial crisis, exhausted by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and challenged by the “rise of the rest,” the United States is now widely seen as a fading former hegemon, disinterested in global challenges and in danger of being eclipsed by China. In an era of anxiety about the creaking liberal world order, much of the rest of the world wants American engagement and leadership—but sees the United States turning inward instead. Gone are the days when critics assailed the United States for trying to be the world’s policeman. Now they worry about a disengaged superpower thinking only of “America first.”

LIBERAL LEVIATHAN?

Iranians burn US flags during an anti-US demonstration outside the former US embassy headquarters in the capital Tehran on May 2018 ,9. (Getty)

the United Kingdom. In the 2019 survey, the same percentage expressed confidence in Trump, compared to 79 percent who said they were confident in Obama in 2016. And the Trump era decline isn’t limited to Europe: across 24 countries surveyed during the final two years of Obama’s presidency, a median of 74 percent of respondents said they had confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs. Looking at these same 24 countries, just 31 percent said the same about Trump in 2019. The median percentage (meaning that half the countries were above this percentage and half were below) with a favorable opinion of the United States dropped from 64 percent to 53 percent over the same time period. The worries driving negative global attitudes toward the United States are different now than they were during Bush’s presidency. When anti-Americanism reached its high point during the Bush administration, the United States was seen as

17/01/20

Since World War II, views of the United States – both positive and negative – have been shaped by perceptions of U.S. power and the ways it has been exercised. In 1947, the British scholar and politician Harold Laski observed that the United States “bestrides the world like a colossus; neither Rome at the height of its power nor Great Britain in the period of economic supremacy enjoyed an influence so direct, so profound, or so pervasive.” In the decades since, the United States has employed that influence—and especially its tremendous military power— in different ways, eliciting very different reactions from policymakers and people in the rest of the world. Global opposition to American power has generally come at moments when the United States seemed inclined to project military might around the world with little restraint. For example, the Vietnam War and President Ronald Reagan’s deployment of intermediate-range missiles to Germany both generated considerable opposition. More recently, the invasion of Iraq provoked considerable opposition around the world at a time when U.S. foreign policy seemed to reflect a belief in

olitics

Washington that the United States could do what it wished and ignore the concerns of even its closest allies. By 2007, the United States’ image had been severely tarnished in many parts of the world. Comparing polling data from that year and 2002, the year before the invasion of Iraq, the share of the public with a positive opinion of the United States fell in 26 out of 33 countries surveyed in both years by Pew. It rose in only five, and stayed about the same in two. The 2007 survey found a median of just 41 percent across a total of 47 countries expressing support for U.S.-led efforts to fight terrorism. In an earlier Pew Global Attitudes survey, in 2004, about half or more of Jordanians and Pakistanis, as well as 40 percent or more of French and Germans, said the war on terrorism was a smokescreen for a campaign against unfriendly Muslim governments and groups. Majorities in predominantly Muslim nations consistently said the United States could someday be a military threat to their country. And into the Obama presidency, drone strikes against terrorist organizations and leaders generated widespread opposition. Across 44 countries surveyed by Pew in 74 ,2014 percent opposed U.S. drone strikes that targeted extremists in countries such as Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. (Still, a Pew survey the very next year offered a reminder that hard power isn’t always unwelcome: a -39nation median of 62 percent supported U.S. military action against ISIS.)

COLLOSUS DOWN The polls also show that the United States is no longer seen as a colossus bestriding the globe. China and other emerging powers increasingly challenge U.S. leadership in various domains—a shift recognized by ordinary citizens as well as policymakers and analysts. In a 2018 Pew survey, a median of 70 percent across 25 nations said they believed China was playing a

In 2015, a median of 48 percent across 40 nations said China will someday replace – or already has replaced – the United States as the leading superpower, while just 35 percent believed the United States would remain on top.

more important role in world affairs compared to 10 years ago; only 31 percent felt this way about the United States. In 2015, a median of 48 percent across 40 nations said China will someday replace – or already has replaced – the United States as the leading superpower, while just 35 percent believed the United States would remain on top. In the minds of many, the hyperpower has become a declining power. Over the first three years of Trump’s presidency, the decline in favorable views of U.S. leadership has been accompanied by a sense that the United States’ commitment to global leadership is waning. Many people around the world believe they are witnessing a Trump-led U.S. withdrawal from an active role in world affairs – and they don’t like it. In the years following World War II, publics in Europe especially believed the United States was exercising its power in relatively benign ways that helped to lay the foundations for a liberal order. (For example, polling in the late 1940s showed widespread awareness of and support for the Marshall Plan among the British, French, and Italian publics, according to the Italian political scientist Pierangelo Isernia.) Now many see the United States as bearing some of the blame for the unraveling of the international order. Pew surveys in 2019 found overwhelming opposition to Trump’s polices on trade (a median of just 18 percent across 33 nations support the United States increasing tariffs), climate (14 percent support U.S. withdrawal from climate accords), immigration (24 percent approve of building a wall on the Mexican border), and Iran (29 percent back the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal)—all instances in which the United States seems to be pulling away from international

17/01/20

Chinese President Xi Jinping (C) walks past honour guard along with Philipine military chief Carlito Galvez (R) shortly after arriving at Manila international airport on November ,20 2018. (Getty)

In 2018, Pew asked respondents in 25 nations whether they would rather live in a world with the United States or China as the top superpower. A median of 63 percent preferred the United States, while just 19 percent preferred China.

commitments and erecting barriers between itself and the rest of the world. Europeans are especially likely to think Washington is contributing less to global problem-solving. In a 2018 survey, three-quarters of Germans and Swedes said that, compared to a few years ago, the United States is doing less to help address major global challenges, and half or more shared this view in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France.

Moreover, there are growing doubts about how well the United States can serve as a model of liberal democracy. Across 25 countries polled in 2018, a median of 51 percent said the U.S. government respects personal freedom, while a median of 37 percent said it does not. But in many nations, the share who believe the United States respects individual liberty has declined in recent years. Ratings on this measure are down significantly in the Trump era, although in many cases the slide began during the Obama presidency, coinciding with revelations about NSA eavesdropping and other similar stories. This decline has been especially steep in Europe. In 2013, for example, 81 percent of Germans said the United States respects personal freedom, compared with just 35 percent in the 2019 poll.

DEMOCRATIC DECLINE

THE COMPLICATED SUPERPOWER

The other major driver of anti-Americanism today has less to do with geopolitics or foreign policy and more to do with the unease that currently pervades democratic societies amid a global “democratic recession,” in the words of the political scientist Larry Diamond. According to International IDEA’s most recent assessment of the global state of democracy, “Democracy is ill and its promise needs revival.” The scholars Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk have examined public opinion over time and found decreasing support for democracy and growing support for nondemocratic forms of government in a number of supposedly “consolidated” democracies. In many ways, liberal democracy is experiencing a crisis of confidence, as recent Pew data shows. A 2017 survey found a median of 78 percent across 38 countries saying representative democracy is a good form of government, but surprisingly high numbers were also open to nondemocratic alternatives, such as rule by experts (49 percent), rule by a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with parliaments or courts (26 percent), or even military rule (24 percent). Democracy is a popular idea, but the degree to which people are committed to democratic rights and institutions is often underwhelming.

Whether it’s the shifting balance of power, challenges to multilateralism, the closing of borders or declining confidence in the health of democracy, scholars and average citizens seem to agree that key elements of the liberal world order are under strain. And they see in Washington a leader less committed than his predecessors to strengthening and maintaining that order.

17/01/20

Yet it is worth remembering that the United States’ image has bounced back before. It’s clear today that people haven’t given up on the United States. In 2018, Pew asked respondents in 25 nations whether they would rather live in a world with the United States or China as the top superpower. A median of 63 percent preferred the United States, while just 19 percent preferred China. People recognize that the world is changing, but they still want the United States to have a prominent place in it. Even if the international system is reeling, many elements of it remain quite popular—and people are still looking for leadership from the increasingly complicated superpower that built it. This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

olitics

In Soleimani Aftermath, Iran is Weakened at Home and Abroad The Prospect of a Punishing Blowback Appears to Have Evaporated by Joseph Braude In the immediate aftermath of the American military operation which killed Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, the prospect

of punishing blowback appears to have evaporated. The U.S. task force in Iraq, initially viewed as vulnerable to expulsion by pro-Iranian parties in Baghdadâ€™s parliament, has resumed anti-ISIS operations. Meanwhile,

17/01/20

Tehran has come under new pressure at home as protests erupt in response to the government’s accidental downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane which killed 82 Iranian civilians.

US RESUMES OPERATIONS IN IRAQ Shortly following the assassination of Soleimani, pro-Iranian elements within the Iraqi ruling class redoubled their efforts to expel American troops from Iraq. These efforts culminated in a vote on January 5 to end the American military presence. Although touted as evidence of unanticipated blowback to President Trump’s decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, it soon developed that there was less to this vote than met the eye.

Mourners light candles for the victims of Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 which crashed in Iran during a vigil at Mel Lastman Square in Toronto, Ontario on January ,9 2020. (Getty)

Early coverage of the vote often failed to note that the decision was non-binding, and that Coalition presence in Iraq was governed by an executive-to-executive agreement. Indeed, Prime Minister Abd al-Mahdi softened his tone in a recent speech before parliament, noting that only a new government with full authorities would possess the legitimacy to alter the Coalition presence. As if to underscore this point, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared on Friday that “any delegation sent to Iraq would be dedicated to discussing how to best recommit to our strategic partnership — not to discuss troop withdrawal, but our right, appropriate force posture in the Middle East.” And, as of yesterday, Coalition forces announced that anti-ISIS military operations were officially resumed. This followed a tenday pause in Coalition activity that had been initiated to mitigate the likelihood of reprisal attacks on U.S. troops by pro-Iranian militias, several of which had explicitly threatened retaliation.

IRAN UNDER NEW PRESSURE DOMESTICALLY Far from launching a counter-offensive

17/01/20

Although touted as evidence of unanticipated blowback to President Trump’s decision to assassinate Qassem Soleimani, it soon developed that there was less to this vote than met the eye. against American interests in the region, Tehran appears to be desperately grappling with the fallout of having mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 172 onboard, including 82 Iranians. Protesters took to the streets to denounce the government for corruption and incompetence. «They are lying that our enemy is America, our enemy is right here,» one group of protesters chanted near one of Tehran’s universities. In short order, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif acknowledged that the government had misled Iranians for several days following the incident, with construction teams actively working to bury evidence of Iranian culpability in the plane’s downing. «In the last few nights, we›ve had people in the streets of Tehran demonstrating against the fact that they were lied to for a couple of days,» Zarif admitted. The incident appears to have breathed new life into the Iranian protest movement, which had hitherto been stalled by a campaign of violent repression which has reportedly claimed up to 1,500 victims. It has also emphasized the fundamental weakness of Tehran’s counteroffensive against Washington’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign. Far from delivering a crushing blow to America’s military or political positions in Iraq or the Middle East, the Iranian government has delivered only symbolic strikes against the former and a stillborn lobbying campaign against the latter. And all while undermining its own political legitimacy at home.

The Prevalence of Blackface in Arab Pop Culture And the Uncomfortable Truth It Exposes of a Widespread Ignorance of History and Perceptions of Racism by Yasmine El-Geressi Images of Justin Trudeau captured in 2001 dressed in a turban and white robes, with his face, neck and hands all covered in dark brown makeup – a practice known as blackface or brownface - at an Arabian Nights themed gala streamed across international media last year, shredding his reputation as the liberal poster boy and exponent of multiculturalism and diversity. After a few more images surfaced, Trudeau refused to rule out the existence of more pictures of himself wearing blackface

as he said white “privilege” had blinded him to the racism of the hurtful entertainment device with roots in 19th-century America. But blackface isn’t only used by white performers – it is even an issue in countries that are themselves the object of bigotry, and in the racially diverse Middle East and North Africa, the centuries-old comedy trope is alive and well. The latest racism scandal to ripple through Arab pop culture involved a Kuwaiti makeup-artist and beauty influencer with over 2 million Instagram followers who was accused of perpetuating racism after she uploaded a

17/01/20

Ghadeer Sultan. (Instagram: @ ghdor.sultan)

video on New Year’s Eve where she deepened her skin several shades darker with cosmetics as she lip-synced to 1985 track We Are the World. The caption reads: “No matter where you are from or what you believe in, we are all children of this world, and we all share it together equally. Beauty comes in all shapes and colours, so lets love each other and celebrate our unity.” It sounds absurd but sadly, this isn’t a bad joke: A video involving racially hurtful practices was intended to denote a celebratory relationship between peoples and foster unity. But what’s even worse is that after Sultan was inundated with comments denouncing her blackface, she did not back down on her poor creative choice. Instead, she refused to take down the video in question and posted another photo of herself in blackface and attempted to justify her actions by insisting that she is not racist and that the posts “show her skills”. One twitter user said, “It’s funny how hundreds of actual black people have said that this is racist and offensive yet Ghadeer Sultan and many non-black people have said ‘nope, not racist, this is art’… this is blackface, whether you do it for comedy or art.” Meanwhile, others argued she had done nothing wrong, asserting that blackface is a “Western concept” and therefore could not have been intended as a racist insult. “Just a reminder, the Western concept of black face is not applicable to Kuwait. So Ghadeer did nothing wrong and she did not intend to offend anyone. Stop exaggerating and moaning about racism if you don’t know the history and meaning of black face in the west as opposed to Kuwait!” said another Twitter user. This incident has drawn attention to the prevalence of blackface in Arab pop culture and exposes an uncomfortable truth of widespread ignorance surrounding racism and anti-blackness in society. Prof. Eve Troutt Powell, from the University of Pennsylvania, told Majalla that when she read on social media defences from Sultan and others that blackface is not racist, she worried that “she and others do not understand what exactly racism is.”

A PERVASIVE PRACTICE This is far from the first time Arab public figures have caused controversy with their portrayals of other ethnicities. On television networks and movie screens, rarely will you see dark-skinned or black people on air, instead they are routinely represented by lighterskinned performers who darken their faces in comedy skits to wring cheap laughs from demeaning stereotypes and prejudices. Last spring, Shaimaa Saif, a well-known Egyptian comedian and presenter, sparked anger by using

17/01/20

“My experience in the Arab world is that most people do not know the historical meanings behind the word “abid” (slave), or they relegate the idea of racism to the United States, without seeing how it can exist amongst themselves, in their own countries,” says Prof. Powell. blackface in a sketch and mocking Sudanese people. Speaking in a crass imitation of Sudanese Arabic and wearing blackface, Saif chatted to Egyptian commuters on a bus as part of a sketch aired on the programme «Shaklabaz». As part of her pranks, she annoyed minibus passengers, attempted to steal their phones, and pretended to drink alcohol. The footage was broadcast by the Egyptian affiliate of MBC, one of the largest entertainment channels in the region, and offended many in the Sudanese community who voiced their anger at Saif online for her appearing in blackface and demeaning Sudanese women. Saif responded by saying that nothing bad was intended. In an interesting contradiction, the same comedian criticised her co-star on a talk show called “Nafsana” for using the Arabic equivalent of the N-word when referring to African-American music artists, stating that the term is racist and shouldn’t be used. Yet her co-star, Entisaar, an Egyptian actress and television presenter, insists on repeating the word. In December 2018, Bushra, an Egyptian actress and singer, released a video clip showing a man in a blackface referring to Egyptian singer and actor Mohamed Ramadan who is dark-skinned. Popular Lebanese singer Myriam Fares also appeared blackface in a recent music video. During Ramadan 2018, two of Egypt’s most prominent comedians Samir Ghanem and his daughter Amy sported fake dreadlocks and darkened their skin throughout the TV series “Azmi we Ashgan” and used racist language, including the N-word. In a popular 2005 Egyptian movie ‘Eyal Habbeeba’, when the lead character, Memmes, is looking at portraits of his uncle - who is seen wearing thick black makeup - and his family, he mocks them by asking: “Did someone burn this apartment before or what?» His co-star Bejama then adds, “You should have processed the photos before hanging them.» In a Kuwaiti comedy TV series “Block

ociety

Ghasmaraâ€?, an entire episode was dedicated to the cast wearing blackface while playing up to offensive stereotypes of Sudanese people as lazy and cynical. These are just a few examples of the grossly inappropriate, misguided and distasteful scenes echoed in Arab pop culture, and the reason these representations continue to endure pervasively is symptomatic of a lack of awareness of the charged and complicated history of blackface, racism, and the consequences of racial bigotry.

IGNORING HISTORY, DENYING RACISM

white performers called minstrel performers, adorned their faces with coal-black makeup and outlandishly red lips, as well as woolly wigs, played characters that demeaned and dehumanised African Americans, helping to confirm notions of superiority based on race. It soared in popularity during an era in America when demands for civil rights by recently emancipated slaves triggered racial hostility. African-Americans also performed in blackface given it was the only way to be in the entertainment industry. Today, because of blackfaceâ€™s historic use to denigrate people of African descent and its inextricable links to systematic and

Blackface began in the US after the Civil War as

On television networks and movie screens, rarely will you see dark-skinned or black people on air, instead they are routinely represented by lighter-skinned performers who darken their faces in comedy skits to wring cheap laughs from demeaning stereotypes and prejudices. 38

17/01/20

Minstrel show performers Alexander and Mose in September 1931. (Getty)

Comedian Samir Ghanem wears blackface and a wig with

Egyptian actor wears blackface in2005 Egyptian movie ‘Eyal Habbeeba’.

social and political repression, its continued use is still considered racist. Still, the negative stereotypes of African Americans and mocking of dark skin have persisted in recent decades. A study last year by US think-tank Pew Research Center found that a third of Americans believe it is not wrong for a white person to wear makeup to appear back. TV personalities, politicians and even fashion brands continually come under fire for blackface controversies. “In the United States, we still have politicians who have had to apologise for blacking up during parties in their youth. Kim Kardashian darkened her skin for a huge photo shoot, for which she too apologized. The reason I think this happens, in many societies including Arab societies, is how little people have been taught about slavery in their histories. Blackface is a practice directly related to African slavery, and education about that is unfortunately not deep enough at best, or ignored at worst,” explains African-American historian Prof. Powell, who spent years in Egypt and travels to the Middle East regularly. While black slavery can seem like a peculiarly American institution, it is also a painful fact of history in the Middle East where countless East Africans were sold as slaves. But there continues to be a wall of silence around the slave trade across the region which has helped to avoid challenging questions regarding the enduring legacies of slavery and anti-black racism in Arab societies that continue to affect social forms of life. This culture of silence that has long prevented Arab countries from engaging in dialogue about racism,

17/01/20

It sounds absurd but sadly, this isn’t a bad joke: A video involving racially hurtful practices was intended to denote a celebratory relationship between peoples and foster unity. slavery and skin colour, and according to Prof. Powell, has led to a popular outright denial that racist attitudes against back people exist within Arab societies. “My experience in the Arab world is that most people do not know the historical meanings behind the word “abid” (slave), or they relegate the idea of racism to the United States, without seeing how it can exist amongst themselves, in their own countries,” says Prof. Powell. Moving forward from widespread denial to overcome the stigmatisation of black people requires a multipronged approach. Proff. Powell explains that although social media has made it easier to hold comedians, directors and producers to account, and that Arab scholars are increasingly publishing wonderful work, the most critical element to break the culture of silence is through education. “Curricula about African history and also slavery (and not only Atlantic slavery) that educates students about the different roles blacks have played around the world is crucial,” she said.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1783- January- 17/01/2020

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg: How a College Project Connected and Changed the World www.majalla.com

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg: How a College Project Connected and Changed the World Majalla - London With a net worth of 70$ billion, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is worth more billions of dollars than he has lived and is regarded as one of the most brilliant minds of his generation. Zuckerberg was born on May 1984 ,14 in White Plains, New York, and was raised in nearby Dobbs At the ae of 12, he created a messaging program called “Zucknet” using Atari basic that he implemented as an inter-office communication system for his father’s practice. This is considered to be a precursor of AOL’s Instant Messenger. He also coded computer games for his friends at a young age. After attending Phillips Exeter Academy, Zuckerberg enrolled at Harvard University in 2002. By his sophomore year, he had already built two programs: CourseMatch and FaceMash. On February 2004 .4, he launched thefacebook.com (renamed Facebook in 2005), a directory in which fellow Harvard students entered their own information and photos into a template that he had devised, from his college dormitory. Within two weeks, half of the student body had signed up. He dropped out of school in 2005 to focus on the social network full time. In May 2005, Facebook received its first major infusion of venture capital (12.7$ million). Four months later Facebook opened to registration by highschool students. Meanwhile, foreign colleges and universities also began to sign up, and by September 2006 anyone with an e-mail address could join. It was around this time that Zuckerberg turned down a 1$ billion buyout offer from Yahoo!, but in 2007 Facebook made a deal with Microsoft in which the company paid 240$ million for a 1.6 percent stake in Facebook; two years later Digital Sky Technologies purchased a 1.96 percent share for 200$ million. In 2008, Zuckerberg’s new worth was estimated at about

1.5$ billion. By 2010, the company reached 500 million users. Zuckerberg took Facebook public on May 2012 ,18. The IPO raised 16$ billion, making it the biggest tech IPO in history at the time. Zuckerberg became the 29th richest person on earth overnight. In the same year, Facebook acquired the photo and video sharing social media platform, Instagram for 1$ billion. Two years later, the company acquired the mobile messaging app, WhatsApp for 19$ billion and Oculus Rift, virtual reality hardware engineered by Oculus VR Company, for 2$ billion. In 2013, he tried to buy Snapchat for 3$ billion, but CEO Evan Spiegel turned him down. In his second year of college at Harvard, Zuckerberg met medical student Priscilla Chan who he married on May 2012 ,19. The relatively low-key event was actually a surprise wedding a guests through they were celebrating a med school graduation party for Chan. Today, Chan is a pediatrician and philanthropist. The couple has two children, Maxima and August. They have announced their plan to sell %99 of Zuckerberg›s Facebook stock — worth about 45$ billion at the time — over time to fund a new LCC called The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. The initiative will funnel the money toward issues like personalized learning, curing diseases, and connecting people. In September 2016, Chan and Zuckerberg pledged 3$ billion to curing the world›s diseases by the end of this century. Zuckerberg has signed also signed the Giving Pledge, which means he will donate at least %50 of his net worth to philanthropic causes before he dies. Despite his immense wealth, Zuckerberg is not flashy about it. His attire usually consists of Adidas flip flops, a grey T-shirt and his signature hoodie. In his first public Q&A at Facebook›s HQ last night, Zuckerberg revealed he wears the same clothes over and over again because he wants to limit the time he spends making «frivolous» decisions so he can concentrate on

17/01/20

real work. Although the company has been successful, its last decade has also been full of scandals and accusations, ranging from a psychological experiment conduct on 70,000 unconsenting Facebook users which examined how changes in the News Feed could impact their mental health, to claims the social network was censoring content, to a gunman using Facebook to livestream the massacre of 51 Muslim worshippers in Christchurch, New Zealand. In 2018, #DeleteFacebook started trending after the founder of data analytics company Cambridge Analytica came forward to say the social network harvested data from over 50 million users’ profiles – later increased by Facebook to 87 million – and used it to target voters during the 2016 election after being hired by the Trump campaign. Zuckerberg’s initial response was a long and deafening silence and was then called to Washington to answer for his company’s actions. The scandal resulted in a 5$ billion fine from the FTC, and a promise from Zuckerbger of «major structural changes to how we build products and run this company.» In October 2019, Zuckerberg was grilled by the US House Committee on Financial Services about Facebook’s latest venture, a cryptocurrency called Libra. Lawmakers were already angry that the company allowed hate groups to organize, facilitated child exploitation, failed to prevent breaches and allowed misleading political ads. Now, they worried about Libra is a potentially catastrophic danger to the financial world order. But despite its many scandals, Facebook continues to grow. About 2.8 billion people use Facebook or its Messenger, Instagram and WhatsApp services every month, up nearly %8 from the 2.6 billion who used at least one of those services a year ago. Even as criticism climbs, Facebook is positioning itself to become more powerful.

ealth

The Difference a Healthy Diet Can Make

Eating More Unprocessed, Plant-based Foods is One of the Best Ways You Can Protect Your Heart. by Harvard Heart Letter What do you usually eat for breakfast? How about for lunch and dinner? These questions are standard fare during a consultation with Dr. Ron Blankstein, a preventive cardiologist at Harvardaffiliated Brigham and Women›s Hospital. The

answers help him tailor the dietary advice he gives, which can have a profound effect on the future health of his patients› hearts. «Most people really aren›t aware of the importance of a healthy diet, or they›re confused about what they should be eating,» says Dr. Blankstein. About

17/01/20

People often assume that they don›t need to worry about what they eat if they exercise a lot or if they›re not overweight. A DAY OF PLANT-BASED MEALS Here›s what Harvard cardiologist Dr. Blankstein eats on a typical day. Breakfast: Steel-cut oats topped with ground flax seeds, hemp seeds, chia seeds, berries, bananas, and walnuts, with soy milk or almond milk Lunch: Bowl of quinoa, beans (usually black-eyed peas or garbanzo beans), tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and parsley, dressed with balsamic vinegar, olive oil, lemon juice, and pepper Dinner: Bowl with roasted sweet potatoes, lentils, kale, red cabbage, broccoli, and avocado, topped with hummus or tahini (sesame seed paste) Snacks: Apple or other seasonal fruit; almonds Beverages: Water, green tea Myth busting Often, he starts by correcting common misconceptions about the role of diet in health. People often assume that they don›t need to worry about what they eat if they exercise a lot or if they›re not overweight. Not true, says Dr. Blankstein. Eating a healthy diet is important for everyone, but especially for people prone to heart disease because of a family history or other risk factors, such as having diabetes or high cholesterol.

Bowl of oatmeal porridge with blueberries, raspberries and chia seeds. (Getty)

five years ago, he revamped his own diet to follow what the current evidence suggests is the best way to avoid heart disease: a whole-food, plant-based style of eating. «I find that when I tell my patients I follow this diet myself, they›re far more likely to buy into it,» he says. (For an idea of what he typically eats, see «A day of plant-based meals.»)

17/01/20

He always asks, «Who does the shopping and cooking at home?» If it›s someone other than the patient, it›s ideal if that person can be there for the diet discussion. Many of the decisions about what you eat happen at the grocery store. More, not less His suggestions often focus less on what people should cut from their diets and more about what to add. Typically, that means more whole grains, nuts, legumes (beans, peas, and lentils), vegetables, and fruits. The fiber and other nutrients in these foods help people lose weight, lower their

ealth

cholesterol and blood pressure, and even reverse their diabetes, says Dr. Blankstein. A lot of people start their day with a piece of toast or a bagel, usually made with white flour. «These highly refined carbohydrates are quickly absorbed into the bloodstream, which leaves you hungry again in a few hours,» he says. Instead, have a bowl of steel-cut oats or rolled oats topped with seeds, nuts, and fruit. Having a salad for lunch is a good way to eat a few servings of vegetables. But add some protein (such as garbanzo beans, lentils, or tofu) to make it more filling, he suggests. What about people who are used to dinners centered around meat? Not everyone is willing to follow an entirely plant-based diet that excludes meat, poultry, dairy, and eggs, he acknowledges. (But see «Processed and red meat: Unpacking the recent studies.») «It›s challenging to change long-held cultural or family traditions. But even small shifts can help,» he says. Once a week, try a recipe for a vegetarian chili, or a bowl filled with a mix of cooked vegetables, grains, and beans. You can gradually expand your repertoire from there. Processed and red meat: Unpacking the recent studies Last fall, three new studies reanalyzed a large amount of earlier data -- including over 100 studies involving more than six million people -about the health effects of eating meat. The results confirmed what nutrition experts have been saying

Eating less processed and red meat is linked to a lower risk of diabetes and a lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease or cancer.

for decades: eating less processed and red meat is linked to a lower risk of diabetes and a lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease or cancer. So why did some headlines at the time hint that there›s no need to trim back on meat? The Oct. 2019 ,1, issue of Annals of Internal Medicine, which published the new analyses, also featured a controversial «clinical guideline» with that very advice. The authors argued that the evidence for cutting back on meat is of low quality and that the overall benefit is small. According to them, most people enjoy meat and won›t change their eating habits. However, the article was written by a selfappointed, -19member panel that included only two nutrition scientists. Their conclusions are

17/01/20

An expert in cardiovascular imaging and prevention, Dr. Blankstein has published hundreds of articles about technologies to detect heart disease. «But one of the most rewarding aspects of my career is helping people implement diet changes and prevent heart disease,» he says. «I›ve had multiple patients who reversed their diabetes, decreased the level of inflammation in their body, or cut their cholesterol by %50 after switching to a plant-based diet,» he says. People lose weight; they also report sleeping better and feeling better over all. «It›s made me a real believer in this approach.»

not official guidelines and are not endorsed by any government or health entity. Dozens of doctors and nutrition researchers called the recommendations reckless and confusing. «It›s like saying to a pack-a-day smoker, well, there›s not much evidence that cutting back to a half a pack per day will help you, so just keep smoking however much you want,» says Dr. Ron Blankstein, associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. The Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health offers a detailed look at the controversy; see www.health.harvard.edu/redmeat. Rewards and Benefits

17/01/20

ulture

Mohamed Sayyed Darwish to Majalla: My Grandfather Was Poisoned By the British Occupational Forces How Sayyed Darwish Grew from Azharite to Revolutionary Icon

by Safa Azeb Saad Zagloul was much more than just a composer. His songs captured the revolutionary spirit that enamored the Egyptian populace in the early twentieth century, as he was one of the icons of the 1919 Revolution. It was during that year alone when he composed 75 revolutionary songs which inspired Egyptians to rise up against British occupation. While his most well-known work is “Bilady, Bilady” (My Country, My Country), which became Egypt’s national anthem, his other songs have become an integral part of Egyptian culture. Among such songs include: “El Helwa Di Amet Tiegen” (This Beautiful Girl Woke Up to Start Preparing Bread Dough), “Qom Ya Masry” (Wake Up You Egyptians), “Zorony Kol Sana Mara” (Visit Me Once a Year), as well as many others which have been covered by various artists after his passing. Sayed Darwish lived between the years 1892 and 1923, and died at the young age of 31. Despite his short time on this earth, he was able to create a revolution in the world of Egyptian and Arabic music as well as influence many artists in the region. Like many singers after him, he started out as a student at the Islamic Azhar University, but eventually found his way to music. He started his musical journey singing in Egyptian streets and cafes and eventually transitioned to performing at theaters. Today, his grandson, Mohamed Hassan Sayed Darwish, is the leader of the Sayed Darwish Band which performs the late singer’s songs to modern audiences. Mohamed Darwish is also the head of the Sayed Darwish association which aims to preserve his grandfather’s legacy. This past year marked two important milestones, first it marked what would have been Darwish’s 127th birthday and more importantly 2019 also

marked the centennial of the 1919 Revolution. As a result of both these anniversaries, Sayed Darwish’s name reentered Egyptian airwaves. Majalla recently sat down with Mohamed Darwish as he spoke to us about his efforts to preserve and spread his grandfather’s legacy, his grandfather’s influence on Egyptian music and the conspiracy theory which holds that Darwish’s death was caused by poisoning from British occupational forces. Q: Tell us about your grandfather’s familial life. A: My grandfather was married multiple times. His first marriage resulted in the conception of my uncle Mohamed El Bahr, but it

17/01/20

ultimately ended in divorce shortly afterwards. He then married his cousin, so he can stay close to his Alexandrian heritage, but they never really got along and they divorced only two months after their wedding and sadly she passed away shortly after the divorce. The tragedy encouraged him to compose the song “Mazlouma Wayak, Ya Ibn Amaty” (You Have Been Wronged My Cousin). His family then pressured him into an arranged marriage with a woman he never met before, then on the night of the wedding he saw her face for the first time and he just up and left the house and disappeared! He then moved to Cairo and bought the house that we are sitting in right now. Egyptian folk lyricist Badie› Khayri actually helped my grandfather purchase the home, as he also happened to live on the same street, which was conveniently located near the Rowad El Farg and the Emad El Din theaters. One of his neighbors in his new home happened to be a young woman named Galila, and he went to her parents to ask for her hand in marriage. After they got married, they went on to have two boys, my uncle Yahia, and my father Hassan. Despite the fact that my grandmother was really young when my grandfather passed away, she never remarried afterwards. Of course, I never had the opportunity to meet my grandfather since he passed away when my father was only two years old. My father would then dedicate his entire life towards preserving my grandfather’s legacy, as such he gathered all the information he could find on him and collected every one of his handwritten papers and through that he was able to produce six books on Darwish’s life. Q: Iman El Bahr Darwish’s use of your grandfather’s work in

17/01/20

Badie› Khayri was his lifelong friend who helped him obtain his Cairo home. music and cinema has made people think that he is the only heir to his catalogue; do you have a publishing partnership with him with regards to the catalogue? A: My relationship with my cousins is great, and I had cordial relations with Iman up until four or five months ago when a rift between us occurred about our grandfather’s catalogue. A court then granted both of us custody of the catalogue, however he wasn’t satisfied with the ruling and asked for an attorney to help him gain more rights to Darwish’s work. Naturally, it is a huge honor to be one of the custodians, an honor that a court ruled that I was entitled to, so how could I relinquish it?! I should note that I own a larger portion of the catalogue, let me put it this way if the catalogue was gold, then Iman would have 9 carats, while I would own 12 carats. We haven’t been on speaking terms ever since that rift. Q: Your grandfather started out as a student at the religious institute of Al Azhar, how did he journey away from Azhari scholarship and go into music?

A: My grandfather always adored music, and one of his teachers actually encouraged him to pursue it as a career. So he quit Al Azhar to follow his artistic ambitions, he first started by practicing religious songs and then he enrolled at the Italian Musical Institute where he learned to play instruments and write musical notes. His life had many twists and turns and he would find himself doing many labor jobs, where many workers would sing to raise their spirits. As such, he found another outlet where he could sing to an audience and showcase his talents just like the way he would do in cafes and theaters. Similar to how the serendipitous meeting with Khayri was a turning point in my grandfather’s life, so was his eventual meeting with Sheikh Salama Higazi would mark the start of a wonderful work partnership as he recognized my grandfather’s talents and often asked to write songs for him. Both Khayri and Higazi had the knack for picking up simple songs that people and laborers would sing on the street and transform them into full blown compositions. Q: Who were the most important people in your grandfather’s professional journey?

A: There were many, his most famous friends include Sheikh Salama Higazi, Naguib El Reyhani and Ali El Kassar, and he wrote songs for many of their theater productions and musicals. Of course, Khayri was his lifelong friend who helped him obtain his Cairo home. Q: Despite the intense artistic between El Reyhani and El Kassar, your grandfather worked with them both. Didn’t they mind having a partner who also worked for their biggest rival? A: Not at all, while they did engage in competition, it was friendly one. Q: Why do you think Darwish still remains a household name, in spite the fact that it has almost been a hundred years since his

Sayyed Darwish first started by singing religious songs and then he enrolled at the Italian Musical Institute where he learned to play instruments and write musical notes. 50

17/01/20

passing? A: It’s because of his contribution to the development of Arabic music. He also provided a revolutionary voice to the oppressed Egyptian masses who were suffering under the British occupation at the time. This is why he was hailed as “the artist of the people”; he was also modest and considered himself part of the wider community and his modesty was reflected in the way he signed his letters as “the servant to Arabic music”. He also learned to play and write music from the Italian institute, and would often go see internationally renowned operas, and he would use such influences to further evolve Arabic music. He was also the first person to use polyphony in Eastern music. Q: What is polyphony?

My relationship with my cousins is great, and I had cordial relations with Iman up until four or five months ago when a rift between us occurred about our grandfather’s catalogue.” A: It’s when two singers simultaneously sing two different lyrics to the same melody without harmonically clashing. Q: Do you think Sayed Darwish gets overlooked? A: He deserved more glory he received during his lifetime, most of his songs were written in partnership with Mounira El Mahdia, Naguib El Rehany, and El Kasser. He also had a massive influence on these partners, for instance when El Mahdia wanted to change the melody to “Cleopatra” my grandfather refused to give in to her requests. After he passed, she asked Mohamed Abd El Wahab to provide the melody of the final two parts of “Cleopatra”. Q: Speaking of Mohamed Abd El Wahab, do you feel any resentment towards him for altering your grandfather’s melodies? A: I am one of Mohamed Abd El Wahab’s biggest admirers and I cannot say that he altered or insulted any of my grandfather’s work. Though he did borrow more than four lyrics and incorporated them into his own melodies. The way he did that was actually clever, even if he did borrow more than four lyrics, which exceeds how many lyrics artists are

17/01/20

allowed to borrow from each other.

Meyet” (From Death to Death) after the tragic event.

Q: What about Mohamed Abd El Wahab’s alleged interference in the Egyptian national anthem “Bilady, Bilady” which was one of your grandfather’s compositions? A: That is not true, my grandfather provided the entire melody to that anthem and Greek distributor Andre Ryder distributed it and Abd El Wahab only provided the orchestral work.

Q: Do you mean to say that Darwish was killed and didn’t die from a drug overdose? A: Of course, my grandfather never touched drugs and that is one of the slanderous rumors that surrounded him after his death. How could an artist who reached his level of success be a drug addict, he actually had a big voice in the fight against drugs as he wrote songs like “Yoharam Sherbeck Ya Goza” (It is Sinful to Drink), and “Masr Ayza Gama3a Faykeen” (Egypt Needs Sober People). The British occupation forces poisoned his last dinner with arsenic, and it was during his last days when he was doing the final rehearsals for the song “Misr Watanena, w Saad Amalna” (Egypt is Our Country and Saad is Our Hope), which

Q: You said that your grandfather faced injustices in life and death? What do you mean by that and what kind of injustices did he face? A: He had a large influence over the Egyptian masses, and inspired many to go into the streets and protest against British occupation. It is this influence that led to him getting poisoned and killed. His death largely fell under the radar as it happened in the midst of the 1919 Revolution and people were preoccupied with Saad Zaghloul’s return from exile. So he died in silence and was buried in silence. His friends, Bayram alTunisi, Badie› Khayri and El Rehani were devastated by his passing and El Rihani even wrote the song “Men Meyet Ela

My relationship with my cousins is great, and I had cordial relations with Iman up until four or five months ago when a rift between us occurred about our grandfather’s catalogue. 52

17/01/20

he planned to sing when Saad Zaghlool came back to Egypt. Q: Why didn’t your family request an autopsy on your grandfather’s corpse then? A: My father was only a child at the time, but the rest of the family did request that the corpse be returned for further investigations. However, the request was refused and my grandfather was buried instantly to cover up the murder, which was done to silence the influential voice of Saad Zaglool. Q: Could you tell us about the Sayed Darwish Association? A: It was founded in 1966 with the purpose of preserving my grandfather’s musical legacy. Its first president was Badie› Khayri, and many others would succeed him at that position

My grandfather also the first person to use polyphony in Eastern music. after he passed away, for instance there was journalist Sanaa Fatah Allah and my own father Hassan Darwish. I am its current president, and have overseen many projects such as the creation of the Sayed Darwish Band 2006 to continue to sing his songs. What has really brought me joy is the fact that many young people and children have become members of the band, which says to me that my grandfather’s music still resonates with the youth. Q: Could you tell us more about the activities your Association is currently doing? A: Our most important success is that we prevented my grandfather’s legacy from falling into obscurity, and that we brought back his songs to large crowds in theaters. Q: An addition to the band, what else is the Association doing to spread your grandfather’s legacy? A: There are many things I wanted to do, but could never get around to doing them for various reasons. I would like to hold concerts in larger venues to attract larger crowds, but we lack the financial resources for that. We asked for the Ministry of Culture for help, but it hasn’t done anything so far and I have grown tired of promises from large financers who seem to lose interest in these plans after media hype starts to wane.

17/01/20