Coronavirus: Confronting a Pandemic

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Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

When all is said and all is done, there is one topic that has dominated news headlines this week: the coronavirus. The World Health Organization’s recent designation of the coronavirus as a global pandemic has sparked panic across the world, as governments around the world have started vamping up efforts to contain or delay the spread of the virus. On the sociological level, people have been preparing for doomsday by stocking up on hand gel, sanitizer, dried foods such as pasta and even household essentials like toilet paper. Although the world experienced a pandemic eleven years ago in the form of swine flu, it wasn’t as contagious or as deadly as the current coronavirus pandemic we are experiencing now. This week’s cover story by Yasmine El-Geressi focuses on this current global pandemic and the bleak warnings the WHO has issued for world governments, namely that the time for containing the disease is narrowing.

In some positive news, it seems that the coronavirus is mild in young children under the age of ten. While it is not known exactly why that is so, Tom Avril from The Philadelphia Inquirer has offered a few theories, including one that states that their immune system has a robust “innate” immune system that helps them fend off all foreign entities regardless of what they are.

One word that seems to have disappeared from headlines this past couple of weeks is Brexit. However, as much as Brexiters would like to deny it, the process of the UK leaving the EU has still not been finalized. As we have known, the UK and the EU are to spend this year negotiating the final terms of Brexit.

The Johnson government is seeking a “Canada-style” trade deal, which would, in theory, be a zero-tariff and zero-quota trade deal. However, as Yasmine El-Geressi points out the deal between Canada and the EU27- only eliminates 98 percent of tariffs and more importantly, it took seven years to negotiate.

While the UK doesn’t have that much time on its hands, trade experts still think that a viable deal is possible.

Last week the world celebrated International Women’s Day as women reflected on the barriers they have had to overcome and all the glass ceilings that are still left to break. Over the past three years, King Salman of Saudi Arabia enacted a number of social reforms to give women in Saudi Arabia more opportunities and greater mobility. Now more than ever, Saudi women are becoming entrepreneurs, entering the workforce and fulfilling their potentials within society. Ali El Shamy writes on how these reforms improved the lives of Saudi women and how they have had a net positive impact on the Saudi economy and society.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

30 The Coronavirus Seems to be Mild in Most Children

Issue 1791- March - 13/03/2020

14 The Best Foreign Policy Puts Women at the Center

18 The Day After Putin

26 Pandemics Ravaged Iran Long Before the Coronavirus

22 Fight Pandemics Like Wildfires

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Saudi Women Embracing New Freedoms 3

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44 Plant Milk or Cow›s Milk: Which is Better for You

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A hundred members of the conservative activist group called Manif pour Tous («Protest for Everyone») dressed as Marianne, French Republic›s allegory, stage a protest against assisted reproductive technology (ART) and surrogacy in front of the National Assembly, French Parliament lower house, in Paris on March 8, 2020, on the International Women›s Day- Getty 4

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Refugees and migrants carry their belongings from an abandoned building they were staying in next to the bus station after police removed them due to safety in Edirne, 2020 ,06 concerns on March Turkey. Thousands of refugees and migrants have flocked to the Greece, Turkey border after Turkey announced that it would open 72hrs to allow border gates for a period of refugees to cross into European countries after thirty three Turkish soldiers were killed in a Syrian air raid in Idlib - Getty

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Jordan Bars Entry from West Bank, Israel, Iraq, Egypt Due to Coronavirus

Jordan on Tuesday closed border crossings with Israel and the West Bank and its seaports to shipping from Egypt as well as barred overland passenger traffic from Iraq to protect the kingdom from coronavirus, the health minister said.

The government has also banned travel to Lebanon and Syria and from Monday will bar entry to travellers from France, Germany and Spain, Saad Jaber told a news conference. Jordan announced earlier this month that a man who had arrived on a flight from Italy had tested positive for coronavirus, the first case confirmed in the country. Jordanian authorities have not announced any new cases.

WHO Declares Coronavirus a Global from the coronavirus, its latest efforts to adjust to the fast-evolving health crisis that silenced Pandemic

Expressing increasing alarm about mounting infections, the World Health Organization declared Wednesday that the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who heads the U.N. agency, said the WHO is “deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity” of the outbreak. He also expressed concern about “the alarming levels of inaction.”

“We have, therefore, made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic,” he said at a briefing in Geneva.

“All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response,” Tedros said.

Italy weighed imposing even tighter restrictions on daily life and announced billions in financial relief Wednesday to cushion economic shocks

the usually bustling heart of the Catholic faith, St. Peter’s Square.

In Iran, by far the hardest-hit country in the Middle East, the senior vice president and two other Cabinet ministers were reported to have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. Iran reported another jump in deaths, by 62 to 354 — behind only China and Italy.

Qatar Says Cases of New Virus Rise from 9,000 Iran Cases Soar to ,262 to 24

Qatar says cases of the new coronavirus in the energy-rich nation have gone from 24 to 262.

Qatar made the announcement Wednesday night, saying the new cases had been found in quarantine and not mixing out in the public.

Iran’s senior vice president and two other Cabinet members have contracted the new coronavirus, a semiofficial news agency reported Wednesday as the death toll in the Islamic Republic from the outbreak rose by 62 to 354.

The report by the Fars news agency, believed to be close to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, comes as President Hassan Rouhani took control of the country’s much-criticized response to the virus and the COVID-19 illness it causes. Authorities announced that there were some 9,000 confirmed cases of the virus across Iran.

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UK Interest Rates Cut, Funds Freed up to Ease Virus Impact

The Bank of England slashed its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 0.25% on Wednesday, as part of an emergency package of measures to cushion the “economic shock” of the coronavirus outbreak. In a coordinated move, the British government announced a raft of short-term measures to keep individuals and businesses afloat. “We are doing everything we can to keep this country and our people healthy and financially secure,” said Treasury chief Rishi Sunak. “We will get through this together.”

Sunak said the new coronavirus sweeping the globe would have “a significant impact on the U.K. economy, but it will be temporary.” In the government’s annual budget, Sunak announced 30 billion pounds ($39 billion) in temporary

relief, including extra funding for the health service, sped-up sick pay, and benefits payments for people who are off work, and relief for struggling businesses. He said the government would refund the cost of sick pay to firms with less than 250 employees and would provide cheap loans for small businesses. Earlier, the central bank said its surprise rate cut would “help support businesses and consumer confidence at a difficult time.”

Britain Moves into Second Phase of Coronavirus Battle Plan Britain is moving into the second of four phases in its battle plan against coronavirus, England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said on Thursday, after confirmed cases jumped across the country. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he is optimistic that Britain is well prepared to cope with the spread of the virus, but early on Thursday regional airline Flybe became one of the first big corporate casualties of the outbreak.

The government set out its action plan earlier this week based on four stages - containing the virus, delaying its transmission, researching its origins and mitigating its impact. Whitty, questioned by lawmakers, said Britain had mainly moved into the second stage of delaying transmission and was now considering measures to try to reduce the peak of an epidemic which officials are anticipating in the coming weeks.

The government has said it could encourage home-working, cancel large-scale gatherings and possibly close schools to slow the spread of the disease and delay the peak of the outbreak until summer, when the health service is under less pressure. Whitty also said, with older

people more vulnerable to the virus, there may be measures to encourage them to stay away from public places, such as the upper house of parliament, the House of Lords. But so far, the government has refrained from triggering those measures, with Whitty saying health officials would present ministers with various options for them to decide what combination would be a “sensible response”. (Reporting by Elizabeth Piper and William James, editing by Estelle Shirbon)

Years for 23 Weinstein Sentenced to Sexual Assaults

Harvey Weinstein was sentenced Wednesday to 23 years in prison for rape and sexual assault, a sight the disgraced Hollywood mogul’s multitude of accusers thought they would never see.

Weinstein, who has been accused of violating scores of women, was convicted last month of raping a once-aspiring actress in a New York City hotel room in 2013 and forcibly performing oral sex on former TV and film production

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assistant Mimi Haleyi at his apartment in 2006.

He faced a maximum of 29 years in prison.

Both women confronting Weinstein again in court Wednesday after their testimony helped seal his conviction at the landmark #MeToo trial.

Russia Passes Bill Allowing Putin to 2024 Stay in Power Past

The Russian parliament approved a sweeping constitutional reform in the third and final reading Wednesday, a move that will allow President Vladimir Putin to stay in power for another 12 years after his current term ends in 2024. The Kremlincontrolled lower house, the State Duma, endorsed a set of amendments to the constitution and a provision resetting the term count for Putin after the revised constitution goes into force. It passed by a 383-0 vote with 43 abstentions, and was approved by the upper house, the Federation Council, several hours later. A nationwide vote on the proposed amendments is set for April 22. Kremlin critics condemned the move as a cynical manipulation and called for protests. Putin,a 67-year-old former KGB officer, has ruled Russia for more than 20 years. After serving for two consecutive four-year terms — a limit outlined in the current version of the constitution — Putin shifted to prime minister’s seat in 2008, with his close ally Dmitry Medvedev becoming a placeholder president. The length of the presidency was extended to six years under Medvedev, and in 2012 Putin returned to the Kremlin as president.

In 2018, he was re-elected for another six years.

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Coronavirus: Confronting a Pandemic

What Does It Mean – And What Happens Next 10

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WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that the window of opportunity to contain Covid19- is «narrowing». Recent outbreaks in Italy and Iran, which so far have no clear link to China, pose a significant challenge to health authorities trying to stop the spread of the virus.

HOW DOES THE WHO DECIDE ?WHETHER TO CALL IT A PANDEMIC A pandemic does not refer to an increase in the potency or deadliness of a disease, but solely a growth in its spread.

An epidemic refers to the spread of illness in a «community or region... clearly in excess of normal expectancy» - or a cluster of outbreaks in a number of countries. Once this spread becomes increasingly global and out of control, it becomes a pandemic. The latter has to have self-sustaining links of infection. This means that involve travellers who have been infected in a foreign country and have then returned to their home country, or who have been infected by that traveller, known as the “index case”, do not count towards declaring a pandemic.

There needs to be a second wave of infection from person to person throughout the community.

?CAN YOU STOP A PANDEMIC Workers set up beds at an exhibition centre that was converted into a hospital in Wuhan in China›s central Hubei province on February 2020 ,4.

by Yasmine El-Geressi The coronavirus outbreak is now a pandemic, the World Health Organization declared, urging governments to step up containment efforts as the number of worldwide cases topped 120,000 and deaths exceeded 4,300. The United Nations body had previously stopped short of such a designation as the illness spread from China, with major outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy, where deaths due to the virus surged past 1000 on Thursday. The infection is now gaining ground across Europe and the U.S. But what does it really mean if coronavirus is labeled as a pandemic?

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The World Health Organization’s declaration of a coronavirus pandemic should not be viewed as an admission of defeat. Dr Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, told The Telegraph: “The WHO is right to declare this a pandemic. We are in extraordinary times. The decisions made in the coming days and weeks will be crucial. We can still change the course of this pandemic.»

Dr Tedros added: «We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled at the same time.

«We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable.»

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PANDEMICS OF THE PAST Pandemics have been a part of human history for centuries. The first pandemic of the 21st century was H1N1, commonly referred to as swine flu, in 2009.

“While most cases of pandemic H1N1 were mild, globally it is estimated that the 2009 pandemic caused between 100,000 and 400,000 deaths in the first year alone,” the WHO wrote.

“Children and young adults were disproportionately affected in comparison to seasonal influenza, which causes severe disease mainly in the elderly, persons with chronic conditions and pregnant women.”

The most severe pandemic in recent history was the 1918 influenza pandemic, sometimes referred to as the «Spanish flu.» The pandemic was estimated to have infected about 500 million people or one-third of the world›s population and killed some 50 million worldwide.

There remains some debate about where this H1N1 flu virus originated, but scientists have found that the virus had genes of avian origin. In other words, it had a connection to birds.

More American soldiers died from the 1918 flu pandemic than were killed in battle during World War I in 1918, according to the CDC. In 1919, the pandemic subsided but the H1N1 virus continued to circulate seasonally for 38 years.

Milder pandemics in the last century include the “Asian flu” of 1957 and 1958 and later the “Hong Kong flu” of 1968.

The Asian flu was first reported in Singapore in February

The most severe pandemic in recent history was the 1918 influenza pandemic, sometimes referred to as the «Spanish flu.» The pandemic was estimated to have infected about 500 million people or onethird of the world›s population and killed some 50 million worldwide.

1957, Hong Kong in April 1957 and in coastal cities in the U.S. in summer 1957, according to the CDC, with an estimated 1.1 million deaths worldwide.

The estimated number of deaths from the Hong Kong flu was one million worldwide, with most deaths in people aged 65 and older.

?WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT According to the World Bank, the annual global cost of moderate to severe pandemics is about 570$ billion (about 440£ billion) or 0.7 per cent of the world›s income.

The Sars outbreak in 03-2002 – which only infected about 8,000 people – caused about 50$ billion in damage to the global economy. Although its mortality rate is lower, the coronavirus could be even more destructive.

This is partly because of the world’s greater reliance on China than 17 years ago. China represented just five per cent of the world economy during Sars – now it accounts for a fifth, and about a third of global growth.

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Image shows warehouses that were converted to keep the infected people quarantined. The patients are suffering from the 1918 Influenza pandemic, a total of -50 100 million people were killed. Dated 1918.

(Getty)

Already in the last week – and before the outbreak was labelled a pandemic – the global economy has taken a huge hit, with oil prices falling and one of the worst days for the stock market since the financial crash.

?WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that the window of opportunity to contain Covid19- is «narrowing». Recent outbreaks in Italy and Iran, which so far have no clear link to China, pose a significant challenge to health authorities trying to stop the spread of the virus.

In 2009, the H1N1 swine flu outbreak was called a pandemic but it turned out to be mild, leading to criticism after pharmaceutical companies rushed development of vaccines and drugs.

It is important to note that the coronavirus is more deadly than the swine flu, which infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people worldwide but only

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The World Health Organization’s declaration of a coronavirus pandemic should not be viewed as an admission of defeat. had a mortality rate of %0.02. WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the health agency is not changing its advice on what countries should do.

However, he said countries must ramp up their efforts by ensuring they detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilise their people. He added that individuals must take the importance of vigorous personal hygiene seriously, while staying up-to-date with the latest official advice.

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Will the UK Get its Canada-Style Brexit Deal ?

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EU Chief post-Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said that Britain’s geographical positon meant it could not be treated in the same way as more distant countries. initiative in talks. The plans are likely to highlight the distance between the two sides on issues. The most contentious which will be thrashed over in negotiating rounds alternating between London and Brussels, are demands for a level playing – field on state subsidies, environmental protections and workers’ rights.

WHAT EXACTLY IS A CANADASTYLE TRADE DEAL?

European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (R) and the British Prime Minister›s Europe adviser David Frost pose for a photograph at start of the first round of post-Brexit trade deal talks between the EU and the United Kingdom, in Brussels on March 2020 ,2. (Getty)

Canada’s free trade deal with the EU is known as the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and took seven years to negotiate. It came into effect in 2017 and will be fully implemented within seven years, although it has not yet been signed off by all the EU member states. We›ve heard a lot about wanting a «zerotariff, zero-quota» deal between the UK and the EU. Ceta does not do that.

According to the BBC, the deal eliminates %98 of all tariffs on goods traded between Canada and the EU. The agreement does not fully remove regulatory barriers, however, as Canada is not a

by Yasmine El-Geressi member of the single market, it is still subject to border checks.

Talks about the future EU-UK trade relations The broadcaster adds that the deal “encourages began in Brussels last week. Although the two the use of advanced electronic checking to speed sides share the goal of a zero-tariff, zero-quota up customs clearance”. Under the deal, the EU free-trade deal similar to Canada’s, there are big could decide to place greater barriers on Canadian differences over how to reach it. Britain will table trade with European countries. But unlike the its plans for the Canada-style free trade agreement EU27, Canada is free to strike trade deals with before the next round of negotiations. Michael other countries around the world. On the other Gove, the chancellor for the Duchy of Lancaster, hand, Canadian financial services do not have full who advises on policy development, said this access to the European market. In 2018, financial week that the government put forward a series services contributed 132£bn to the UK economy of draft legal texts as Britain attempts to take the %6.9 of total economic output.

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CETA allows professional qualifications to be recognised in both Canada and the EU, making it easier for people to travel and work in both places.

However, fact-checking site Full Fact notes that the movement of services is “much more limited than within the single market”.

A DIFFERENT BALL GAME The EU says it can’t give the UK a Canada-style deal without regulatory realignment. Its negotiating mandate cites EU labour, environmental and other standards merely as “reference point”. But it wants British commitments to be legally binding; and, for state subsidies to industry, it demands full adherence to its rules. Britain promises not to undercut the EU unfairly, but it rejects sticking to the bloc’s laws on the grounds that regulatory divergence is a key purpose of Brexit. On state aid the EU wants to go even further, saying a trade deal must ensure “the application of Union state aid rules to and in the United Kingdom”. That idea was dismissed out of hand by Number 10.

Although the EU has pulled back from French demands that Britain should be forced to adopt any new regulations in other areas such as labour and environmental standards — so-called “dynamic alignment” — the level playing field remains highly contentious.

Another sticking point in the trade deal is fish – although it accounts for 0.1 percent of the British economy, control of fishing stocks is totemic for Brexiteer. The EU negotiating mandate wants to “uphold” continued reciprocal access with “stable quota shares” to be divided between UK and EU fisherman. The UK wants to agree access to its waters on an annual basis. Fisheries must be settled by July 1 and failure to agree a deal could derail the rest of the trade talks.

EU Chief post-Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has insisted that the EU was ready to offer a good deal to the UK after the post-Brexit transition phase expired at the end of the year. But he added that Britain’s geographical positon meant it could not be treated in the same way as more distant

countries.

Speaking at the London School of Economics last month, senior adviser to Barnier, De Rynck said: “If you allow some irony, some in the UK now seem to want to become Canadians. But of course Dover is much closer to Calais than Ottawa is.

The distance from Dover to Calais, and – thanks to the foresight of Margaret Thatcher and others – the speed of connection to the tunnel, is of course much quicker than what we have with our Canadian friends. So proximity matters.”

He said what mattered was the interconnectedness between economies. “Zero-quota, zero-tariff

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Britain›s Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street in central London on February 2020 ,12, to take part in Prime Minister›s Questions (PMQs) at the House of Commons.

(Getty)

Despite the potential difficulty of negotiating in a tight timeframe and pre-negotiation tension, trade experts believe a deal can be done and that both the EU and UK negotiating mandates leave negotiators enough room for compromise – if the politicians are willing. secure a successful outcome from the negotiation given the British approach.

The No.10 Downing Street Press Office responded to comments from Barnier with a tweet saying that in 2017 the EU had offered a Canada-type free trade agreement as “the only available relationship for the UK”, given Britain’s demands. “Now they say it’s not on offer after all… What’s changed?” it asked Michel Barnier.

IS SUCH A DEAL POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN A YEAR? Despite the potential difficulty of negotiating in a tight timeframe and pre-negotiation tension, trade experts believe a deal can be done and that both the EU and UK negotiating mandates leave negotiators enough room for compromise – if the politicians are willing. access, this brings a lot of benefits to the UK economy and with benefits come obligations,” De Rynck said. “And it’s clear that for us it’s a different ball game that we are playing with the UK to the one that we agreed with Canada in terms of the level playing field.”

Guy Verhofstadt, a senior MEP and former prime minister of Belgium, who has led the European parliament’s approach to Brexit, said the UK was approaching the negotiation as if the sides were “living on two different planets”.

He added that it would be a “hell of a job” to

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“There will be a lot of noise and shouting but I think there will be a trade deal this year,” Sam Lowe, trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, was quoted saying in the Financial Times. “I just don’t think it will be a very good trade deal when you think of the disruption it will involve.” Lowe added: “Both sides are pretty aligned on what they want.” David Henig, a former UK government trade official who helped to negotiate the EU/US TTIP trade deal, agreed: “You can see a landing zone here. Both sides are talking about the same kind of deal,” he told the Financial Times.

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The Best Foreign Policy Puts Women at the Center Greater Equality Leads to Greater Wealth and Security for All 18

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Feminist foreign policy aims to unlock the potential of half the population. Doing so is not just a moral obligation—it is an economic and security imperative. foreign policy from a feminist perspective? And in an era of economic uncertainty, is a focus on gender equality an unnecessary distraction?

A NATURAL FIT Evidence from recent studies suggests that the status of women is closely aligned with a country’s prosperity and security. In this respect, promoting gender equality as a foreign policy priority seems like common sense. Closing the gender gap in workforce participation could add as much as 28$ trillion to the global GDP. Ensuring women’s meaningful participation in peace processes makes agreements more likely to last and be implemented. The more women there are in a country’s parliament, the lower the incidence of human rights abuses and conflict relapse. Equalizing access to agricultural resources for women could result in 150 million fewer hungry people on the planet. The bottom line: research confirms that nations seeking to fortify their own security, better use foreign aid, or support stable and democratic partners should prioritize women’s advancement.

Women Foreign Ministers› pose for a picture during their meeting in Montreal, Canada, on September 2018 ,21. (Getty)

Women’s rights have had a place in public policymaking since at least the late 1970s, supported by both international institutions and a proliferation of local ones in more than 100 countries. But national reforms have primarily addressed domestic concerns. A feminist foreign policy offers something different, in that it promotes programs that make gender equality and women’s empowerment central to national security, including diplomacy, defense, aid, and trade.

by Rachel Vogelstein, Jamille Bigio, Rebecca Turkington In 2014, Margot Wallström, then serving as the foreign minister of Sweden, proclaimed that the Swedish government would adopt a so-called feminist foreign policy, becoming the first nation ever to do so. Since then, Canada, France, and Mexico have followed suit, and a handful of other nations— most recently, Luxembourg, Malaysia, and Spain—have pledged to develop similar policies.

In each of these countries, the announcements have provoked questions among foreign policy experts. What, exactly, do these policies set out to achieve? At a time of rising global activism for gender equality, what does it mean to conduct

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The government of Sweden has undertaken the most comprehensive plan of this type with the feminist foreign policy it first articulated in 2014. But the Swedish policy actually builds on the prior efforts of many other nations.

Such efforts share a focus on promulgating change in three broad areas. They seek to promote women’s leadership, to commit to policies that advance equality, and to allocate resources in a manner that supports those commitments. The specific initiatives governments have proposed vary, as do the extent of their implementation and the means of measuring their success. And although all aim to elevate gender equality

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as a foreign policy priority, not all are explicitly termed “feminist.”

Over the last decade, many countries have brought more women into their foreign policy decision-making circles and placed greater emphasis on gender equality in their conduct of foreign affairs. Today, a record 34 countries have female foreign ministers, 84 have female ministers of trade, and 20 have female ministers of defense. Several countries have established ambassador-level positions to promote women’s issues abroad or within their foreign policy apparatus. Not all of these countries have signed on to a foreign policy unequivocally dedicated to advancing women’s rights, but the shifts in their leadership have diversified foreign policy debates and led to effective policies.

Countries with and without explicitly feminist foreign policy agendas have pursued policies and dedicated resources that further gender equality, some of them adopting specific plans to address women’s rights through diplomacy and development cooperation. Eighty-three nations have adopted national action plans to encourage women’s participation in peace and security processes. Donor countries, including Australia, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged a percentage of their foreign-assistance funds to programs that promote the advancement of women, or they have created new pooled funds to support women’s rights organizations. These efforts add up to a collective shift in resources and political will.

TOO MUCH, TOO LITTLE The effort to change leadership, adopt policies, and commit resources in order to advance gender equality as a foreign policy priority has met with some skepticism. Critics argue that

The world confronts too much poverty, insecurity, authoritarianism, and violence for any nation to afford to overlook the talents and contributions of 50 percent of its population.”

increasing the focus on women’s rights and gender equality detracts from promoting other national interests abroad. Even many who believe that gender equality is a worthwhile goal do not agree that it should be institutionalized as a foreign policy priority.

Such criticism overlooks evidence that gender equality is not only a human right worthy of protection but also a means to advance a country’s economic and security interests.

Raising the status of women and girls has been shown to increase GDP, improve global health, combat radicalization and extremism, improve the chances of lasting peace, and strengthen democracy. The world confronts too much poverty, insecurity, authoritarianism, and violence for any nation to afford to overlook the talents and contributions of 50 percent of its population.

Other skeptics argue that a true feminist foreign policy would require nothing short of a transformation in international relations. These critics maintain that the feminist policies that the governments of Canada, France, Sweden, and other countries have adopted do not do enough to reshape aid infrastructure, decrease militarism, address the root causes of inequality, or incorporate the experiences of women and girls. But to the extent that such critiques are valid, they risk making the perfect the enemy of the good. Moreover, policies promoting gender equality in the national security space are relatively new, and it is still too early to know just what effects they will have, whether on improving the lives of women or

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The new Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin (2nd R) poses with Minister of Education Li Andersson (L), Minister of Finance Katri Kulmuni and Minister of Interior Maria Ohisalo (R) after the first meeting of the new government of Finland in Helsinki, on December 2019 ,10.

(Getty)

Rhetoric and promises alone will not generate the dividends of real progress toward gender equality. Nations should be held accountable for the work they do (and don’t do). measuring a country’s prosperity and stability should take into account the status of women and girls—by, for example, defining economic health to include a level playing field for women, free of discriminatory laws, and defining security to include freedom from intimate-partner violence and sexual assault. Parliaments can support these policy efforts with legislation that promotes gender equality and mandates government ministries to strengthen related initiatives.

on generating the political will to bring about further change.

THEORY INTO PRACTICE A foreign policy vision that announces itself as feminist has the advantage of making gender equality an implicit and explicit priority. But Sweden’s path is not the only way forward. By adopting and executing a carefully designed policy that ties women’s advancement to national security, as well as to economic and diplomatic priorities around the world, countries can hope to reap some of the benefits of greater parity.

To strengthen prosperity and stability, governments worldwide—including the United States—should work to advance gender equality in foreign policy. Governments should establish high-level councils to coordinate their efforts to promote the status of women and girls both at home and abroad. Each cabinet agency should appoint a high-ranking, full-time official who reports directly to the cabinet minister and is tasked with fostering gender equality. And governments and their agencies should make their own workplaces a part of this effort by prioritizing gender balance in staffing and providing effective means for addressing workplace harassment and abuse.

National leaders should draw up government-wide, highpriority policies to advance gender equality through diplomacy, development, defense, and trade. Metrics for

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Gender equality promises real benefits, not only to a country’s economy but also to its national security. In order to reap those benefits, however, governments need to invest, and they must do so at levels sufficient for achieving meaningful gains for women. Countries that can provide foreign assistance should do so in a manner that directly supports local, female-led organizations, which are proven drivers of change but often lack funds. A multinational gender-equality partnership, modeled after the Open Government Partnership, could catalyze additional financing for gender equality from governments, multilateral organizations, the private sector, and civil society institutions.

Rhetoric and promises alone will not generate the dividends of real progress toward gender equality. Nations should be held accountable for the work they do (and don’t do). They should commit to issuing public annual reports that assess progress toward time-bound and measurable goals along the road to equity. For its part, the United States should ratify the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, which would oblige it to join other nations in submitting a report to the CEDAW committee every four years detailing measures taken to advance gender equality.

Feminist foreign policy aims to unlock the potential of half the population. Doing so is not just a moral obligation—it is an economic and security imperative. To get there, countries must demonstrate genuine leadership, adopt strong policies, and provide generous resourcing that will not only improve the lives of women and girls but also strengthen the stability and prosperity of entire economies and nations.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Fight Pandemics Like Wildfires With Prevention and a Plan to Share the Costs

by Catherine Machalaba, William B. Karesh

companies, heavy manufacturers, and other industries as well.

As the new coronavirus spreads around the world, causing markets to plunge and analysts to slash growth projections, the epidemic’s potential to damage the global economy is rapidly becoming clear. The regions in China that have been hardest hit by the virus, which originated in Hubei Province late last year, are home to millions of businesses that in turn supply an estimated 56,000 multinational companies. Already, many of these multinationals are experiencing disruptions in their supply chains, as vital manufacturing components from China are delayed. The effects will likely reach tech giants, pharmaceutical

China finally appears to be getting the outbreak under control.

After fumbling its initial response, the government is rushing to reopen factories and scale up manufacturing to meet global demand. Employers are reportedly offering paid plane tickets to coax workers back to factories and offices. But these efforts are likely to be hampered by worker hesitation and by lack of trust in Chinese institutions. And even if China can resume a normal level of business, supply chains could take longer to catch up.

Disruptions may be felt for months in the form of reduced supply and higher prices.

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The outbreak is also spreading rapidly outside of China, wreaking havoc on major economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Italy. The coronavirus has now been confirmed in 77 countries, with more than 93,000 cases of COVID19- (the disease caused by the virus) and 3,198 deaths (the majority of them in China.) Concerts, conferences, and sporting events are being canceled daily throughout East Asia and Europe. Hotels, airlines, event venues, and insurance companies are all taking a hit.

Yet around the world, governments and international organizations have treated the new coronavirus outbreak as a public health problem rather than a larger societal one whose causes and consequences will affect everything from finance and insurance to tourism and agriculture. Nearly every other type of disaster calls upon multiple sectors for response and prevention.

Fire brigades fight wildfires, for instance, but building codes and flame retardants reduce the likelihood that fires will break out in the first place, while alarms provide early warnings to those in danger. When a hurricane threatens, local authorities evacuate people days before the storm is expected to hit, but zoning and insurance pricing should already have helped anticipate the problem by deterring the development of flood-prone areas. In both types of disasters, a variety of actors, public and private, ultimately bear the costs. Pandemics are unique in that they are treated almost exclusively as public health threats, with few standard prevention efforts and no mechanism for sharing costs across affected sectors.

THE REAL COST OF EPIDEMICS

A worker wearing a protective suit sprays disinfectant inside a classroom at a high school in Athens, Greece on Friday March ,6 2020. (Getty)

History suggests that the COVID19- virus outbreak will do more lasting damage to individual countries and economies than to global markets or international trade. The last two weeks have seen a dramatic selloff in stock markets around the world, indicating that global-scale economic effects are likely to be drastic, but they may be short-lived. Markets took a hit during the epidemic of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2002 and 2003 but recovered rapidly. The same was true for the airline industry, which suffered losses in East Asia as a result of SARS but quickly resumed an upward trend that continued until early this year. Two factors make the current coronavirus outbreak potentially more disruptive than that of the SARS-associated coronavirus: China’s share of the global manufacturing and tourism markets is much larger today than it was in 2003, and the COVID19- virus appears to be spreading across borders much more rapidly than did the SARS-associated coronavirus.

But whether or not COVID19- proves more harmful to the global economy than SARS or other past epidemics, its effects on individual countries are sure to be stark and lasting. Epidemics do long-term damage to economies, as well as to people’s health and productivity, by diverting resources from non-emergency health care as well as from other public goods and services. During the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, GDP growth

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The coronavirus has now been confirmed in 77 countries, with more than 93,000 cases of COVID19- (the disease caused by the virus) and 3,198 deaths (the majority of them in China.) in Liberia collapsed from 8.7 percent to 0.7 percent between 2013 and 2014. Sierra Leone experienced a similar decline in growth, as did neighboring Guinea. The official death toll from EVD in West Africa was 11,300, but more than 10,600 additional deaths occurred because of untreated HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis.

The Ebola virus disease devastated the region’s already strained health-care sector, causing an eight percent reduction in Liberia’s health-care workforce and leaving human resources gaps that persist to this day. Months-long school closures disrupted education and left children vulnerable to exploitation, causing a spike in sexual violence and unintended teen pregnancies. The costs of these and other secondary effects of EVD will be felt for years if not decades to come.

But the story of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa doesn’t have to be the story of future epidemics. While it is impossible to predict when and where future infectious disease outbreaks will originate, there are ways to reduce their frequency and the dangers they pose. National governments and international bodies can take measures to prevent the worst, channel funds where they are needed, and share the costs of recovery if an epidemic is not avoidable.

FROM RESPONSE TO PREVENTION The origins of epidemics such as COVID19- are not a mystery.

Our organization, the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, has warned for years that novel coronaviruses could spread from bats to humans in Asia. Over the last 60 years, the majority of new zoonotic pathogens have emerged as a result of changes to agricultural, food production, or land-use practices or from contact with wildlife. A more robust and effective prevention strategy is needed, one that would strengthen and harmonize national and international laws and standards governing land use, ensuring that high-risk agricultural and food production practices are made safer.

Food systems in particular are in desperate need of modernization in much of the world. Hundreds of millions of people mainly

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in developing countries depend on live animal markets for food.

Live animal markets are a leading source of emerging pandemic threats, such as influenza, and have been implicated in both SARS and the current coronavirus outbreak. Reducing the number of live animals moving through food markets will reduce the risk of future infectious disease outbreaks.

China took a positive step in this direction after authorities linked the COVID19- virus to a wildlife market in the city of Wuhan. On February 24, the government strengthened its Wildlife Protection Law to prohibit the trade and consumption of wild animals (although it left a number of loopholes and exemptions). China’s wildlife industry is valued at 74$ billion, and the new and tougher regulations will doubtless hurt many businesses. But the cost will likely pale in comparison with that of the current coronavirus outbreak, which has already lost China an estimated 196$ billion in tourism and consumer spending.

Other preventive measures that reduce the risk of animal-borne diseases can be tailored to local disease environments and threats. Malaysian authorities determined that a deadly Nipah virus that led to an outbreak in 1998 had jumped from large fruit bats called “flying foxes” to pigs and finally to humans. As a result, the government mandated that all fruit trees attractive to flying fox bats be separated from pig farms to minimize the chance of transmission, a simple precaution that appears to have worked for 20 years now. Similar preventive measures could

Two factors make the current coronavirus outbreak potentially more disruptive than that of the SARS-associated coronavirus: China’s share of the global manufacturing and tourism markets is much larger today than it was in 2003, and the COVID19virus appears to be spreading across borders much more rapidly than did the SARS-associated coronavirus.

work in Bangladesh, where Nipah virus cases have been linked to raw date palm sap—a delicacy harvested much like maple syrup—contaminated by bats. Previous bans on date palm sap had simply fueled black-market sales, and efforts to get people to boil the delicacy failed because of the effect on its taste. But sap harvesters can stop transmission at the source by covering collection containers with something as modest as a homemade bamboo skirt.

Once a pathogen does enter a community, education can be a powerful line of defense. The more communities know about disease transmission, the better they are able to monitor for outbreaks and intervene when they occur. In West Africa, community resistance to medical intervention hampered health workers’ response to the Ebola virus, in part because many communities hadn’t had much interaction with health professionals prior to the outbreak. In order to build trust and avoid dangerous misunderstandings, health ministries and medical organizations should work to educate the public and

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File photo: A student washes her hands before heading to her classroom at Don Bosco High School as schools reopen in the Liberian capital Monrovia on February 2015 ,16. Children trickled back to school in Liberia after the restart of lessons that had been delayed for months by the deadly Ebola outbreak, as the country begins to turn the page on the crisis. (Getty)

Once a pathogen does enter a community, education can be a powerful line of defense. The more communities know about disease transmission, the better they are able to monitor for outbreaks and intervene when they occur. for pandemic response paid for by national-level taxes on industries with inherent disease risk—such as live animal producers and sellers, forestry and extractive industries— that could support recovery and lessen the toll of outbreaks on national economies. Other novel financing facilities could fund pandemic adaptation initiatives analogous to climate adaptation efforts that better prepare countries to cope with future outbreaks—by undertaking many of the preventive measures outlined above.

involve members of affected communities in disease surveillance.

Preventive measures such as these are important for staving off the economic as well as the human harm infectious diseases can cause. But governments and international bodies will need to supplement such programs with contingency plans for channeling resources where they are needed—and sharing the costs— during an outbreak. The World Bank has offered a tool for this purpose, the Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility (PEF), which provides privately backed insurance intended to pay out to poor countries if they are affected by large-scale international outbreaks. The PEF is a good first step, but it misses a piece of the pandemic-preparedness puzzle in that it is designed to pay out regardless of whether countries have taken preventive measures.

Like car insurance, epidemic or pandemic insurance products should be priced according to the buyer’s risk profile—which should depend in part on a country’s ability to show that it is taking preventive measures.

One option would be to create a separate international fund

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The United Nations has mechanisms for responding to pandemics, but they are scattered among its agencies. Treating pandemics as the disasters they truly are will require a more unified international response. Infectious disease outbreaks should be emphasized under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, a global agreement whose signatories have committed to national plans for reducing disaster risks. This would help countries address the root causes of infectious disease threats instead of treating them as simple uncertainties. The UN should also make pandemic risk management a priority in all of its activities, such that nothing the world body undertakes inadvertently increases the likelihood of an outbreak. The UN routinely asks for “risk assessments” in order to evaluate proposed development initiatives. It should include the risk of emerging infectious diseases among those assessed.

Done successfully, pandemic prevention and response will be largely invisible to society. Day to day, diagnosis and treatment of routine diseases will become faster and more precise, and over time, there will be fewer emergency budget requests, less societal disruption as a result of infectious disease outbreaks, and greater confidence in health systems. Pandemics spread more than disease. They threaten the health of whole societies and economies. Treating them purely as health crises will only perpetuate an ineffective and financially reckless cycle of panic, response, and neglect.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Pandemics Ravaged Iran Long Before the Coronavirus

But Instead of Learning From the Past, Tehran Is Stuck There

by Amir A. Afkhami As the novel coronavirus sweeps Iran, the government’s response has been opaque and remarkably deficient, favoring political and

religious priorities over pragmatic prevention policies. When the virus began to spread in Wuhan, China, other countries took stock of their readiness against the disease. Iran did not prepare. Instead, it continued to export facemasks

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to China, causing a national shortage when its own hospitals needed masks in February. Iran also refused to restrict travelers from China, its largest trading partner, in all likelihood to avoid any deleterious impact on its already spiraling economy, which has been battered by U.S. sanctions.

Just a month before the country’s first coronavirus cases were reported, Iran’s military had mistakenly downed a Ukrainian jetliner.

The handling of the crisis that ensued became an embarrassing display of ineptitude on the part of the country’s leadership. Facing a crisis in public trust after that blunder, as well as worsening economic and political isolation under U.S. sanctions, Iran’s leaders were disinclined to ask for international aid and instead adopted a policy toward the coronavirus outbreak that prioritized the regime’s survival and prestige over the public’s welfare.

A cleric looks at an Iranian sanitary worker disinfecting Qom›s Masumeh shrine on February 2020 ,25 to prevent the spread of the coronavirus which reached Iran, where there were concerns the situation might be worse than officially acknowledged. (Getty)

Although the circumstances are much different, the pattern is strikingly similar to the Iranian government’s response to repeated bouts of pandemic cholera at the turn of the twentieth century. Iran’s inability to halt the recurrent ingress of cholera across its borders more than a century ago damaged its economy, eroded its sovereignty, and provoked popular protests that forced Iran’s then ruling Qajar dynasty to make major changes. The coronavirus outbreak has set off a similar chain of events: an expanding international travel ban on Iran, the further depreciation of the already struggling Iranian currency, and a growing domestic mistrust of the government. By the same token, the public health reforms that eventually helped smother pandemic cholera in Iran a century ago likely hold the key to containing the coronavirus outbreak today.

DENIAL AND REFUSAL Iran began reporting coronavirus fatalities in the city of Qom as early as February 19. Travelers from Iran to Canada and Lebanon tested positive for the virus over the next two days, signaling a much larger outbreak than Tehran was willing to admit and prompting neighboring Afghanistan, Armenia, Pakistan, and Turkey to close their

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Although the circumstances are much different, the pattern is strikingly similar to the Iranian government’s response to repeated bouts of pandemic cholera at the turn of the twentieth century. borders with Iran.

Although President Hassan Rouhani dismissed the domestic concern surrounding the pandemic as unwarranted hysteria, a whistle-blowing parliamentarian from the city of Qom accused the government of covering up the crisis, claiming that 50 of his constituents had succumbed to the contagion. Iran’s credibility suffered an even more severe blow earlier last week when the country’s deputy health minister and the head of its coronavirus task force was forced to admit that he was infected with the pathogen after appearing visibly ill at a press conference. By Thursday, two members of parliament and one of Iran’s vice presidents also had known infections. The government’s latest official report of 54 fatalities out of 978 cases nationwide surpasses the singledigit mortality rate in China, suggesting that the outbreak in Iran is either much wider than previously reported or unusually lethal.

Tehran’s policy response to the outbreak has been even more concerning than its lack of transparency. Since detecting the disease’s presence in Qom, the ministry of health has refused to establish quarantines in or around the city, wrongly characterizing the measure as outdated. The administration has failed to adequately identify, isolate, and treat people who have come in contact with the virus, and the infection has consequently spread to other parts of the country. The health ministry did request closing Qom’s religious landmarks, including the Fatima Masumeh Shrine, but religious officials refused. A surrogate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei concurred with that

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decision, declaring that any attempt to restrict access to the shrine promotes a nefarious plot by the United States to make the holy city appear to be unsafe. Hundreds of pilgrims and visitors congregate in close proximity to one another at Qom’s religious sites on a daily basis, providing further opportunity for the virus to spread.

FIRST AS TRAGEDY While the coronavirus is new to Iran, the country’s response to the pandemic is arrestingly familiar. In 1904, a pandemic wave of cholera reached Iran on the heels of Shiite pilgrims from Iraq. Tehran first attempted to stop the contagion by restricting pilgrimages to holy shrines.

But the most esteemed grand ayatollah of that time resisted such efforts and accused officials of furthering the aim of Western “infidels” to prevent the Shi’ite faithful from fulfilling their religious duties. Much like the current Rouhani government, the weakened prime minister and his cabinet lacked the power to oppose the religious establishment. And so they allowed caravans of infected pilgrims to bypass government quarantines and further disseminate the disease.

Then as now, the government feared a general panic. It concealed the cholera outbreak from the country’s population—and even from the

The current leadership in Iran appears to have forgotten these hard-earned lessons, including the secular approach to medicine that transformed the country’s infectious disease landscape in the past century.

reigning monarch—until the growing mortality made it impossible to hide.

Keeping the spread of cholera a secret and doing little to contain it served to magnify the demographic and economic shock the illness caused. The cholera epidemic touched off double-digit inflation, which in turn sparked widespread protests calling for government reform. The result, in 1906, was the movement known as the Constitutional Revolution, which established a parliamentary system and brought about a short pause in Iran’s long history of absolutism. The Iranian government’s failure to keep cholera from entering the country and the resulting economic free fall also forced Iran to cede control over its eastern and southern frontier quarantine establishments to Russia and the United Kingdom, making those countries

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Persia - reading the message of the new Shah in the courtyard of the parliament. (Getty)

masters of Iran’s major overland and maritime cross-border traffic.

In the second decade of the twentieth century, Iran established a secular system of governance and a public health administration that began to bring pandemic cholera outbreaks under control. Essential to ending the recurrence and severity of the pandemics was the adoption of a microbiological understanding of infectious disease, and hence, the retreat of religious and political obstacles to empirically informed approaches to disease control, prevention, and treatment.

The current leadership in Iran appears to have forgotten these hard-earned lessons, including the secular approach to medicine that transformed the country’s infectious disease landscape in the past century. Unless Iran’s leaders rapidly

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The health ministry did request closing Qom’s religious landmarks, including the Fatima Masumeh Shrine, but religious officials refused. adopt a more transparent and robust approach to stopping the contagion, the full arc of history is likely to repeat itself, as a growing coronavirus outbreak will irreversibly erode the legitimacy of clerical rule.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Day After Putin

Russia’s Deep State Holds the Key to Succession

by Stephen Sestanovich Who will rule Russia when Vladimir Putin is gone? The Russian president recently reignited speculation about his succession plans by proposing a series of constitutional changes, on which parliament will vote next week, and by installing Mikhail Mishustin, a near-anonymous technocrat who for years headed the country’s tax service, as his new prime minister. Some experts predict Putin will step down before his fourth and final term ends in 2024; others insist he aims to create a new position enabling him to evade term limits and rule indefinitely. Everyone wonders whether Mishustin is the cipher he seems or a successor in waiting.

Nobody, to say the very least, has any idea.

One reason so much analysis of Russia’s future reveals so little

is that journalists, businesspeople, diplomats, and scholars— myself included—have too often asked the wrong questions.

We focus too much on Putin himself, on his personality, his wealth, his approval ratings, his secret schemes. And we pay too little attention to the institutions that today define the Russian state. Putin’s single biggest achievement in two decades in power—his true legacy—has been to reempower the state bureaucracy. He has paid salaries on time, increased budgets, let the government control a larger share of the national economy, and looked the other way as officials abused their power. No part of this bureaucratic apparatus matters more than the national security establishment—the vast, hydra-headed complex of military, intelligence, and law enforcement ministries. These institutions may well determine not only who becomes the next president of Russia but what

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Russian politics will look like after Putin.

REVENGE OF THE DEEP STATE For decades before the communist order collapsed, Soviet officials assured Americans that the military, intelligence, and law enforcement bureaucracies deferred fully to the “civilian” authority of the Communist Party. It may even have been true. But now that a former KGB officer and head of state security has run the country for more than 20 years, that picture of how the system works badly needs updating.

Consider what would happen if Putin dropped dead tomorrow.

The succession process would at first probably follow the constitution, which says that the prime minister—Mishustin, in this case—becomes the acting president. Within 90 days, an election would be held for a new president, to serve a full six-year term. But that is not all that would happen. Soon after taking over as acting president, Mishustin would be on the phone to some of the people whose help he would need to win the election. Among them would be the heads of what Russians call the “power ministries”—the Interior Ministry, the Defense Ministry, the recently formed National Guard, and the intelligence and security services. (Mishustin tacitly acknowledged the importance of these institutions in one of his first actions as prime minister—doubling the pay of law enforcement personnel who deal with public disturbances.)

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ivanovo oblast Governor Stanislav Voskresensky (R) observe an exhibition at Parachute plant on March 2020 ,6 in Ivanovo, 230 km east of Moscow, Russia.

President Putin is having a one-day visit to Ivanovo.

(Getty)

To anyone who knows Russian history (or who saw The Death of Stalin, the 2017 comedy about the Soviet dictator’s demise and its aftermath), it may seem obvious that the power ministries will play an important role in any succession scenario. From compromising information and behind-thescenes threats to truncheons and even tanks, they have a lot to offer a new president trying to consolidate power. But their impact reaches far beyond succession itself: how the Russian system evolves after Putin will depend on whether a new president—regardless of who it is—gets these institutions to do what he wants or whether they get him to do what they want.

Russia’s power ministries have come to form a kind of “deep state”—in the same sense that Turks and Pakistanis intend when they use that phrase to capture the outsize role that men in uniform play in their countries. Russians rarely speak of the deep state, but they talk all the time about the siloviki, a term some Western experts translate as “guys with guns.” It refers to a network of institutions whose leaders see themselves as responsible for assuring political continuity and social order (as well as their own privileged positions in that order). The siloviki’s institutions operate with considerable autonomy alongside the democratic play-acting of Russian politics.

During Putin’s long tenure, these institutions have claimed, both legitimately and corruptly, a growing share of national

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To anyone who knows Russian history, it may seem obvious that the power resources and wealth. And they are almost never overruled by “civilians.”

Grasping the role of Russia’s deep state has been made more difficult by competing conceptions of what Putinism is all about. We have been too impressed, for example, by its populist features. Putin is often lumped together with demagogic authoritarians such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban or Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Like them, he appeals to religious and cultural traditions and to national identity. But in Russia, these themes are mostly decorative and have little impact on how the country is actually run. The comparison to Erdogan is particularly inapt. From the moment he was elected, Erdogan saw the secular-minded generals of the Turkish deep state as an unacceptable check on his autonomy.

Through co-optation, confrontation, and even imprisonment, he has largely broken their power. Putin, by contrast, has brought the Russian deep state roaring back to life.

Putin has further misled us by claiming to have restored topdown management to Russian state institutions—what he calls the “vertical of power.” He wants credit for the sharp contrast between his management style and the bureaucratic disorder and dysfunction that preceded him. But whether or not full vertical control was ever his goal, it is far from certain that he has achieved it. Empowering bureaucrats at all levels of the Russian state has ended up meaning the same thing it has meant for centuries—abundant opportunities to create self-dealing fiefdoms and ignore orders from above.

Even Putin occasionally acknowledges the limits of his authority. He spent much of his January State of the Union address—the same speech in which he outlined his plan for constitutional reform—complaining that government ministries had failed to spend enough of the funds he allocated for so-called national projects (big-ticket programs to deal with infrastructure, education, digital innovation, and more).

The result was a 2019 federal budget surplus of 1.9 percent of GDP—a mind-boggling amount that slowed last year’s economic growth and made Putin understandably angry. He had told the bureaucrats he wanted a big fiscal stimulus. For whatever reason, they didn’t give him one.

Putin doesn’t generally complain that the siloviki defy him, of course. That would be embarrassing. But we should wonder about the reach of his power—and what it says about the system his successor will attempt to master. Take the

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dramatic 2015 murder of the well-known opposition leader Boris Nemtsov on a bridge just outside the Kremlin. Chechen thugs were convicted of the crime, but few, in Russia or beyond, believed they were the real masterminds. At no level of Russian law enforcement was there an appetite to go after those who were ultimately responsible.

Was that, as some Western commentators charged, because Putin himself ordered the hit? Perhaps. But it is more likely that the cover-up reflected the uneasy—and far from secret— mutual accommodation between the Moscow police and various criminal organizations, Chechen mafiosi among them.

Russia’s police have a complicated and profitable relationship with organized crime, and they don’t want others—not even Putin—butting in. Seen this way, the next Russian president’s job may be less about controlling the vertical of power than about understanding when it and its many horizontal outgrowths are best left alone.

Similar questions about Putin’s control of the deep state arise from a strange episode in Russia’s intervention in Syria—a story that still has many analysts scratching their heads. In early 2018, a Russian mercenary outfit known as the Wagner Group launched an attack on U.S. and Kurdish units in eastern Syria. In so doing, it crossed an established “deconfliction” line that American and Russian military officers had agreed on so as to stay out of each other’s way. Finding their own troops under attack, U.S. commanders warned their Russian counterparts that they intended to strike back. But even though the Wagner Group had close personal ties to the Kremlin (its leader is nicknamed “Putin’s chef,” and the company had a Russian government contract for its activities in Syria), the Russian military high command did nothing to ease the confrontation. Punishing U.S. airstrikes ensued. By failing to prevent the killing of many Wagner Group mercenaries, Russian military officers sent an unmistakable message: No matter how well connected they are, other people should stay

Unlike the Turkish or Pakistani version of the deep state, Russia’s version is too divided to have a single leader or spokesman, much less to install its own man in the Kremlin.

out of our business.

Once the conflicting interests that animate different parts of Russia’s military, intelligence, and law enforcement complex become clear, many Kremlin actions and choices that have been treated as Putin’s own need to be reexamined. In some cases, the president will be fully involved and in control. In others, he may choose a broad direction but let others handle the follow-through. In still other cases, he may know little of deep state doings until they blow up in the headlines.

Is there any way to know which case is which? Can we say, for example, that Putin ordered the attempted 2018 murder in the United Kingdom of the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter? Or whether the Defense Ministry alerted him that the new cruise missile it has been testing over the past decade violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty? Or exactly how much Putin knew of the 2016 hacking of the Democratic National Committee?

Clues of various kinds (and sometimes highly classified intelligence) can help to answer these questions, but usually analysts have to settle for mere guesswork. The enormous size and divergent interests of the power ministries enable Russian officials at all levels to pursue their private agendas.

Putin, moreover, has shown that he always stands behind his

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Russia›s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at a meeting of Russian government officials at the House of the Russian Government. (Getty)

We focus too much on Putin himself, on his personality, his wealth, his approval ratings, his secret schemes. And we pay too little attention to the institutions that today define the Russian state. won’t be the last inducement he offers the power ministries.

There is a warning in all of this for whoever becomes Russia’s next president. Taking on the deep state will be difficult, but failing to do so will mean accepting strict limits on presidential authority. In dealing with this dilemma, Putin’s successor will have several broad options. He could accept, at least at first, what the power ministries ask of him. He could try to play different institutions against each other in an effort to carve out more autonomy for himself. Or he could pursue some version of the bargain Putin proposed to Russia’s leading oligarchs soon after he became president in 2000: I’ll let you run your businesses, you let me run the country.

people. They don’t have to worry about getting into trouble just because they don’t get his approval in advance. Whether they are using exotic poisons, stealing emails, or assassinating politicians outside his office, the siloviki know Putin has their back. They will want the same of whoever succeeds him.

THE STRUGGLE AHEAD This system—solidly in place after two decades of Putin— could make the coming transfer of power turbulent. Unlike the Turkish or Pakistani version of the deep state, Russia’s version is too divided to have a single leader or spokesman, much less to install its own man in the Kremlin. This pluralism also makes it hard to subdue. Especially under a new president— likely to be weaker than Putin—many different institutions will be able to defend both their turf and the policy control that makes that turf so valuable.

Competition among elements of the deep state could, in an extreme case, turn violent. But even if the struggle stays peaceful, the price Russia’s next leader will have to pay for the siloviki’s support could be steep. The power ministries may want expanded autonomy, bigger budgets, perhaps even a greater say on issues beyond their existing domains.

Mishustin surely knows that his pay increase for riot police

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A final option would be to challenge the deep state and try to cut it down to size. This approach would be the boldest, the riskiest, and probably the most tumultuous. But it can’t be ruled out. Although deep states last a long time, they are not eternal. Periodically, they fall prey to domestic power struggles, losing their legitimacy, sense of purpose, and autonomy. (Just ask Erdogan’s generals.)

A less personalized, more institutionally focused public assessment of how the Russian system works won’t just provide a better indication of what the future holds; it can be part of the United States’ policy response. By obsessing so much about Putin himself—who has, alas, usually been the most popular part of his own system—all of us have made it easier for him to persuade his public that Western governments and societies are incorrigibly hostile to their country. If that is what ordinary Russians believe, they will be even less likely to turn against the deep state, even though it is among the least popular—and most predatory— components of Putinism. Only if our objections to Russian policy are taken more seriously by Russians themselves can they help spark the internal debate that will be needed for an eventual change of course. To do that, we need to start with a cool assessment of Russia’s institutions, one that its own citizens can recognize and that speaks to their own concerns.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Saudi Women Embracing New Freedoms How Law Reforms Have Given Saudi Women More Opportunities for the New Decade 34

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by Ali El Shamy On March 8 of every year, women and girls around the world observe the struggles they have had to overcome and everything they have accomplished. Though the goal of gender equality has still not been reached, especially in the developing world, women use this day to celebrate everything that has been achieved so far and to highlight what still needs to change.

During the waning years of the previous decade, King Salman of Saudi Arabia started issuing progressive royal decrees which gave Saudi women unprecedented freedoms. As a result, Saudi women now welcome the decade enjoying several liberties that were previously denied. As this is the first International Women’s Day of the decade, Saudi women can now look forward to further reforms that will give their lives more mobility and opportunities.

NO MORE MALE GUARDIANS

Saudi fans attend the «MDL Beast Fest», an electronic music festival, held in Banban on the outskirts of the Saudi capital Riyadh on December 2019 ,19.

(Getty)

Up until recently, women in Saudi Arabia needed the permission of male guardians (mirham) to do most things in life, whether it going it with friends, seeking a university education…etc. Some lucky women had lenient male guardians who allowed them to make their own decisions and therefore lived freely. However, many other women weren’t as privileged and didn’t have the freedom to make their own choices. Thankfully, in August 2019, King Salman signed a royal decree that did away with this restriction and today women in Saudi Arabia are free to make their own life choices, now ambitious young women do not need the approval to become doctors, entrepreneurs or scientists.

Now Saudi women can go out with their friends without any barriers.

In another extraordinary move, late last year the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah announced that it is considering removing one major restriction for young women seeking to perform the Hajj and Umrah religious pilgrimages. As it stands, women under the age of 45 who seek to perform these pilgrimages can only do so with a mihram, such as a husband or a blood male relative. This restriction applies to all women from around the world, and not just Saudi women.

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FREEDOM OF DRESS, DRIVING AND OTHER LEISURE ACTIVITIES Recently, Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman stated that women in Saudi Arabia should be given the choice of whether or not they should wear the hijab. As a result of the statement, more and more women have opted not to wear the covering. In the past, women were forced to wear the abaya, a black head-to-toe covering, when going outdoors, as such this freedom of choice was a welcome one for the women and girls living in the Kingdom.

While not all women have chosen to take off the hijab, some have embraced the new reforms by wearing multicolored abayas, instead of the traditional black ones.

One thing that female activists in the Kingdom have been campaigning for was the right to drive cars. For decades, Saudi women were not given the right to drive, now thanks to a royal decree passed in 2018, women in Saudi Arabia were allowed to drive cars. Following the decree, women rushed to get their driver›s licenses while others, such as speed race enthusiast Rana Almimoni embraced their passion for drifting and speed racing in Riyadh’s motor parks.

The reforms led to the Kingdom hosting a number of concerts, art fairs and sporting events and women were allowed to attend many of such events. For instance, many of the fans who attended the -2019 20 Supercopa de España matches, which were all hosted in Jeddah, were women. Moreover, last year’s BTS concert, which was the first nonArab artist concert in Saudi Arabia, also allowed women to attend.

SAUDI WOMEN IN THE WORKFORCE One aspect that, unfortunately, doesn’t make as many international headlines is the increase of female participation in the workforce.

Contrary to popular belief, even before the reforms, Saudi women were allowed to join the workforce, however, in 2017 only 18 percent of the Saudi labour force was female. Some of the barriers that held women back from seeking work included the need for a male guardian’s approval and restrictions on driving which forced

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Saudi women attend a concert by Egyptian pop sensation Tamer Hosny in the western city of Jeddah on March 2018 ,30. (Getty)

women to rely on either public transport or male guardians to drive them to work. The removal of the mihram and the end of the female driving ban thus removed two of the big obstacles working Saudi women faced. A September 2019 report published in the Saudi Gazette showed that the reforms have led to a massive increase of female workforce participants, as at the time that the article was published there were 440,700 working women in Saudi Arabia, a massive rise from 2018 which saw only 156,000 women in the labour force.

The Saudi government has also made new reforms to encourage women to go into the workforce, for instance, the government has implemented plans to establish 233 childcare centers around the Kingdom. The aim of these centers was to help working women who couldn’t afford domestic workers to care for their children while they’re at their jobs. Another decision that helped women is the policy of “Saudisation” of the workforce, under these

new laws corporation now have to hire a certain quota of Saudi citizens. As a result, more Saudi companies have looked toward hiring women to make up this quota requirement. The Saudi state has also loosened restrictions on the jobs women are allowed to work in, for example, women were previously barred from working in the Interior Ministry, but now many women have taken up positions in the ministry and other institutions they weren’t allowed to work at. Looser rules on shift hours have also allowed more women to work during night shifts (which under Saudi law take place between 6 PM and 6 AM).

Thanks to reforms implemented by King Salman, women in Saudi Arabia have welcomed the new decade with more liberties and freedoms.

However, this is not the end of the reforms, as Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 has called for an expansion of these liberties as well as female participation in the workforce.

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)Getty( .2018 ,17 Saudi entrepreneurs Asmaa Alabdallah (L), founder of BitGo, and Reem Dad (R), co-founder of Taibah VR, stand in front of Halcyon House in Washington on August

Rana Almimoni, year-old-30 a Saudi motor racing enthusiast, sits in her car on a track in Dirab motor park, on the southern outskirts of the capital ,19 Riyadh, on July )Getty( .2018

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Issue 1791- March - 13/03/2020

Djamila Bouhired: Algerian Resistance Icon

www.majalla.com

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South African Pianist Abdullah Ibrahim Reflects on Life Before and After Apartheid And How Duke Ellington and Thelonius Monk Helped Shape His Career 40

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by Howard Reich The eminent pianist Abdullah Ibrahim was born in Cape Town, South Africa, in 1934, which means he was born into apartheid.

It also means that by now, at age 85, he has seen his country transformed and understands — as few of us can — the role music played in liberation.

“As you know, jazz music is community based — it’s something that we lived,” says Ibrahim. “It’s a legacy. It’s an ongoing expression of our individual and communal experience.”

As a result, simply playing and composing jazz and traditional South African music “was quite challenging for them,” adds Ibrahim, referring to the white power structure of his youth. “They thought it might be — they considered it subversive, let me put it that way. Because it went contrary to what they suggested that we should do individually and socially, because it brought people together.”

Which, of course, was the antithesis of apartheid. So though the celebrated Ibrahim, who now lives mostly in Germany, doesn’t claim that jazz brought an end to official oppression in South Africa, he believes it was a powerful voice against it — a unifier that foreshadowed apartheid’s inevitable and necessary demise.

Abdullah Ibrahim performs at Cheltenham Jazz Festival 2019 on May 2019 ,04 in Cheltenham, England.

(Getty)

“It was on a daily basis,” he recalls of apartheid’s burdens.

“Your movement was restricted. And, of course, because all the communities were isolated from each other, you couldn’t move. You had to have permits to move from one place to another, even if it was up the road. And the idea that you couldn’t so-called ‘mix’ with other racial groups.

“But we (had) young people who (were) very resourceful.

They could help us negotiate through all of those barriers.”

Ibrahim — born Adolph Johannes Brand and known as Dollar Brand early in his career — moved to Europe in 1962 and quickly won the admiration of a jazz giant: Duke Ellington. The master championed Ibrahim via the 1960s album “Duke Ellington Presents the Dollar Brand Trio” and helped him win high-profile American bookings, including at the Newport Jazz Festival in 1965.

WHY DID ELLINGTON BECOME SO DEEPLY INVOLVED? “In our tradition, in everybody’s tradition, there’s

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Though the celebrated Ibrahim, who now lives mostly in Germany, doesn’t claim that jazz brought an end to official oppression in South Africa, he believes it was a powerful voice against it — a unifier that foreshadowed apartheid’s inevitable and necessary demise. something called ‘transmission’ — information and knowledge are transmitted for us on another level, not just physically,” says Ibrahim. “For me, Ellington was never an African American. He was the old wise man in the village that you went to when you needed problems solved. So Ellington, for me, I feel every time I write something or compose something, when I check, Ellington already has been there. There is no way to escape him.

“And I think when he heard us with my trio, perhaps this is what he sensed was mutual.”

In other words, Ibrahim surmises Ellington heard in him something timeless that linked them, a transmission of cultural traditions from one generation to the next. Indeed, it’s not difficult to imagine Ellington being moved by the African impulses that coursed through the younger man’s music.

Perhaps it was inevitable that a pianist of Ibrahim’s originality also eventually would find his way to one of the most iconoclastic and idiosyncratic of jazz pianists, Thelonious Monk.

“As soon as I started composing, I was hearing things that were supposed to be not normal, and there was a lot of flack, especially in (South African) dance bands, that I should not include what they called those ‘false notes,’” remembers Ibrahim. “But when I heard Monk, that was inspiration, because his whole approach of writing, and also harmonically and rhythmically, resonated with me.”

Monk, too, long was ridiculed and misunderstood for the sharp dissonances, rhythmic peculiarities and harmonic quirks of his music.

“I went to a concert, and I went to (Monk’s) dressing room, and I introduced myself: ‘I’m from South Africa, and I’m a pianist, and thank you so much for all this wonderful inspiration,’” says Ibrahim. “And he looked

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Protests against Apartheid by black South Africans circa 1960. (Getty)

at me very quizzically and walked away, and then came back, walked away, came back again, walked away, circling me.

“And then he came up to me and said: ‘You are the first piano player to tell me that.’

“And up to today, it resonates very deeply with me.

Because then I understood why there was such negative comments about Monk: that he couldn’t play, that he didn’t know anything about harmony.’”

In effect, Monk gave Ibrahim permission to be himself — to play what others called “false notes.”

But that was long ago. Like South Africa itself, Ibrahim inevitably has changed.

“When we are younger, we want to say everything,” observes Ibrahim, who last year was named an NEA Jazz Master, this country’s highest jazz honor.

“We know everything, and we want to say everything.

“When one gets a little more mature, hopefully, one understand that perhaps a pause for effect is effective. …

The power of a whisper.”

Adolphe Brand, aka Abdullah Ibrahim, south african musician and composer, leader of Dollar Brand Trio, c; 1994 (Getty)

Originally published in the Chicago Tribune

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Plant Milk or Cow›s Milk: Which is Better for You? As Long as the Nutrient Profile is the Same, Choosing One or the Other is Really About Preference 44

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If you drink cow›s milk, there›s really no reason to switch to a plant-based option. Cow›s milk is a good dietary source of necessary vitamins and minerals.

We asked Vasanti Malik, adjunct assistant professor of nutrition at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, for some advice on how to choose the best product.

Are plant-based milks healthier than cow›s milk?

Should people make the switch?

A pitcher of almond milk.

If you drink cow›s milk, there›s really no reason to switch to a plant-based option. Cow›s milk is a good dietary source of necessary vitamins and minerals. A serving of cow›s milk contains calcium, vitamin D, vitamin A, and a host of micronutrients that you need in your diet. That said, there is no nutritional

by Harvard Women›s Health Watch Plant-based milks line the shelves in the refrigerator section of most supermarkets these days: soy milk, almond milk, cashew milk, even milk made from rice, oats, or peas. Choosing a plantbased product seems like it would be a healthy option. But is it always?

And is it better for you than drinking cow›s milk?

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requirement that you drink milk or eat dairy products specifically. In the past, experts recommended eating dairy products to build bones and prevent fractures, says Malik. It turns out there›s not very strong evidence that drinking a lot of milk or eating dairy products has a real benefit when it comes to reducing facture risk.

So, if you want to switch to a plant-based product, or if you need to do so because of a milk allergy or lactose intolerance, you can get the same nutrients by carefully choosing the right plantbased milk product instead. For added assurance, you can take a calcium supplement if needed, says Malik.

HOW SHOULD I CHOOSE A PLANT-BASED MILK IF I DO WANT TO SWITCH?

aim for a milk that has at least 8 or 9 grams of protein per serving.

Some plant-based milks also have one big drawback: they don›t taste very good.

«I can drink almond milk that is unsweetened, but it›s not palatable for some people,» says Malik.

Manufacturers try to fix that problem by pouring in sugar and other additives that you really should avoid. So, when you read the labels, also look for a plant-based milk that is low in added sugar. A new Nutrition Facts panel format slated to go into effect this year will make it easier for consumers to choose products low in added sugar. This new label includes a line for added sugar along with percentage of Daily Value.

Ideally, Americans are encouraged to eat less than 30 to 45 grams of sugar a day -- roughly 12 The quality of plant-based milks varies greatly teaspoons. However, many experts recommend when it comes to nutrients. Some contain virtually sticking to 25 grams or less, says Malik. For a the same amount of vitamins and minerals as person who eats 2,000 calories a day, you›d want cow›s milk; others fall far short. For example, to have no more than 200 calories a day from many almond milks are much lower in protein added sugar. than cow›s milk. If you are going to switch to a plant-based milk, be certain to read the label ARE THERE OTHER REASONS and find a product that contains good amounts TO SWITCH TO A PLANT-BASED of protein, vitamin D, iron, and calcium. Ideally, ALTERNATIVE?

Plant-based milks are superior to cow›s milk when it comes to the environment. Plant-based products are less environmentally taxing than animal-based products.

Plant-based milks are superior to cow›s milk when it comes to the environment. Plant-based products are less environmentally taxing than animal-based products. So, if you›re looking to reduce your carbon footprint, plant-based may be the way to go.

How about soy milk? Is there any reason to avoid it?

There was concern that soy, which contains isoflavones, a type of plant estrogen that is similar

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to human estrogen, could fuel breast cancer and endocrine disorders. Those theories have been debunked, says Malik: «Experts aren›t concerned about soy anymore.» The main problem with soy is for people with allergies to soy-based products.

If you are allergic, it›s of course something to avoid.

Are there other health reasons to support making the switch from cow›s milk?

Although higher dairy intake has been associated

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with a lower risk of colon cancer, some studies have linked it with a higher risk of advanced prostate cancer and a higher incidence of ovarian cancer. «But the evidence is not very strong,» says Malik. Until more information is available, there are no official recommendations advising people to eat more or less dairy based on study findings. However, if you or a family member has a very high risk for any of these conditions, you may want to speak with your doctor about whether diet may influence your own likelihood of developing cancer.

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Djamila Bouhired: Algerian Resistance Icon Majalla - London

Djamila Bouhired is a nationalist and guerrilla fighter who opposed French colonial rule in Algeria. She was born in 1935 to a Tunisian mother and an Algerian father and was raised in middle class family. While staying at a French school in Algeria, she discovered her revolutionary spirit. When children would repeat every morning “France is our mother”, Bouhired would stand up and scream “Algeria is our mother!”

At age 20, she started her national activism against the French colonization when the revolution broke in 1954 after 130 years of French occupation. She worked as a liaison officer and personal assistant to FLN commander Yacef Saadi in Algiers, and was he first to volunteer to plant bombs on roads used by the French military occupation.

In 1957, before a large planned demonstration in the Casbah, she was captured by the French. According to her personal of account of her incredible story, she was tortured for 17 days to force her to reveal information about the FLD leader, but she refused In the July of the same year, Bouhired was tried for allegedly bombing a cafe, alongside another Algerian freedom fighter, Djamila Bouazza, aged 19.

The bomb killed 11 civilians inside.

At the time the French lawyer Jacques

Vergès, sympathetic to the cause of the Algerian nationalists, heard of her case and decided to represent her. In what would be a historic trial, Vergès accused the government of themselves having committed the acts charged in his defense, waging a public relations campaign on her behalf. Despite his efforts, she was convicted and sentenced to death by the guillotine.

Vergès co-wrote a plea against the decision to sentence Bouhired to death. Meanwhile, many groups formed throughout Algeria and abroad to convince the government to drop the death sentence. Most notably, princess Laila Ayesha of Morocco contacted the President of France at the time, René Coty, and asked that Bouhired be spared. They agreed and Bouhired served a prison sentence in the Reims prison until 1962. As the end of the war drew near, she was released along with many other Algerian prisoners.

Vergès claimed to have become a target of the French colonial government, which allegedly launched several failed assassination attempts against him, including a bomb planted in his apartment and another in his car. Bouhired and Vergès were married a year after Algeria›s independence, by which point Vergès had converted to Islam and taken the first name Mansoor. The couple had two children, Meriem and Liess Vergès.

The couple also established established

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Révolution africaine, a publication that focused on Pan-Africa and African nationalism movements.

Bouhired separated from Vergés in 1970, after 7 years together. She became chairwoman of the Algerian Women Association in independent Algeria, and was constantly at odds with then-Algerian President Ahmed Ben Bella.

Bouhired was one of the many women fighting for emancipation and equality in the newly independent Algeria. However, economic downfall and exponential population growth caused a rise in Islamic fundamentalism, which coupled with new laws allowing for a multi-party political system ultimately resulted in civil war.

Equality for women was not a priority of the government throughout this period in Algerian history. Nonetheless, Bouhired will forever be known for her work not just for Algerian independence, but also for women›s rights in Algeria and the Middle East.

Bourhired was depicted in the 1966 film The Battle of Algiers. She was also depicted in the film Jamila, the Algerian (1958) by Egyptian director Youssef Chahine and in Terror’s Advocate, a documentary film about Jacques Vergès.

Djamila Bouhired resides in the capital of Algeria, Algiers, and continues to be a militant for several causes of which she participates in protests and marches, including the 2019 Algerian protests.

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The Coronavirus Seems to be Mild in Most Children But Scientists Are Not Sure Why 50

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The flu can occasionally cause severe complications in the young, and in the United States, it kills 200 or so children under age 18 every year. one of the people who died was under age 20 — a slightly different picture from what is usually seen with a far more common respiratory illness, the flu.

The flu can occasionally cause severe complications in the young, and in the United States, it kills 200 or so children under age 18 every year.

The impact of the coronavirus is a reminder that the immune system is a complex, many-layered series of defenses, and the biochemistry of why it may be more effective in different phases of life — and against different diseases — is not fully understood.

The reasons why very young children can be hit hard by the flu make sense. Their immune systems have not fully matured, and they do not have prior exposure to most strains of the flu, said Andrew Pavia, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah.

That is why vaccination is recommended.

Chinese children wear plastic bottles as makeshift homemade protection and protective masks while waiting to check in to a flight at Beijing Capital Airport on January 2020 ,30 in Beijing, China. (Getty)

by Tom Avril Some good news on the coronavirus front: so far, it has not killed any children under age 10.

Yet scientists are not sure why.

Chinese health officials provided details this week on 44,672 patients whose illnesses had been confirmed with laboratory testing as of Feb. 11, including 1,023 deaths. Just

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On the other hand, most young children do not develop severe complications from the measles and chickenpox, whereas those illnesses can be “disastrous” in adults, Pavia said. (Vaccination is recommended for those illnesses, too, but no vaccine is %100 foolproof.)

“This is where we really don’t have great answers,” Pavia said.

One theory is that when faced with certain unfamiliar viruses, children can fight them off because they have a robust layer of

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defense called the “innate” immune system.

This consists of white blood cells called macrophages, which can detect and gobble up foreign particles in the bloodstream regardless of their identity.

Adults have innate immune systems as well.

But against some viruses, they may rely more on the “adaptive” immune system: targeted, infection-fighting cells that have “learned” to attack specific kinds of viruses after being exposed to them in the past.

That is how vaccines work. The shots contain a dead or inactivated form of the virus in question, or even a fragment of it, enabling the immune system to form a cellular memory should the person ever be exposed to the real thing.

Yet in response to some viruses, the adult immune system can overreact, unleashing a “storm” of harmful, inflammatory chemicals, said Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at the Yale School of Medicine.

Older people have an added deficit: the various layers of their immune systems start to become less effective. Many also have underlying conditions, such as heart disease. And increasingly, the bodies of older people suffer from chronic, low levels of age-related inflammation, nicknamed

Among 1,408 patients who were at least 80 years old, 208 died, for a mortality rate of %14.8 — higher than any other age group.

“inflammaging.”

So when older people become infected with a virus, the combination of even more inflammation and a weaker immune system can be deadly, Iwasaki said.

“You have this perfect storm of not having the right antiviral defenses and having elevated inflammaging,” Iwasaki said.

Every year, most flu-related deaths in the U.S. occur in older people. The same pattern appears so far with the new coronavirus, according to the summary of 44,672 confirmed cases from the Chinese Center

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The body temperature of an Iraqi child returning from Iran is measured upon her arrival at the Najaf International Airport on February 2020 ,21, after Iran announced cases of coronavirus infections in the Islamic republic. (Getty)

for Disease Control and Prevention.

Among 1,408 patients who were at least 80 years old, 208 died, for a mortality rate of %14.8 — higher than any other age group.

The mortality rate for those ages 70 to 79 was %8, and the rate for patients in their 60s was %3.6.

The overall mortality rate for the 44,672 patients was %2.3, but Iwasaki and Pavia cautioned that the true figure is almost certainly lower. Many infected patients with milder symptoms have not had their illnesses confirmed with laboratory samples.

And more good news: The rate of deaths

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has been dropping steadily since the virus first struck in December. Among 757 confirmed cases through Jan. 117 ,10 died, for a mortality rate of %15.4.

But among 12,030 confirmed cases identified from Feb. 11-1, just 102 died — a mortality rate below %1.

That decline could be due to a more complete accounting of cases, or perhaps the virus has shifted in some way. And as with any invader that challenges the human immune system, some of the details may remain a mystery.

Originally published in the Philadelphia Inquirer