Hezbollah is Up to its Old Tricks in Lebanon, but They No Longer Impress Anyone

The Emergence of the Saudi Artificial Intelligence Sector

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Turkey’s Waning Welcome to Syrian Refugees

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1778- December- 13/12/2019

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Lionel Messi: A Record Breaking Career

Issue 1778- December- 13/12/2019

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Hezbollah is Up to its Old Tricks in Lebanon, but They No Longer Impress Anyone www.majalla.com

Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Lebanon’s political impasse has deepened after a tentative deal on a new prime minister unraveled, leaving the country rudderless as it grapples with the worst economic crisis since the 90-1975 civil war. The next phase of the crisis is going to be long and excruciating, especially to the Lebanese who will have to deal with economic and political frustration, combined with violence when they complain. In this week’s cover story, Hanin Ghaddar discusses how Hariri-Bassil-Hezbollah trio of power are still trying to come back to power and why international community has just told Lebanon’s political class that with Hezbollah and its corrupt allies, no financial assistance will come to Lebanon.

Turkish troops invaded northern Syria after President Trump moved U.S. forces out of their way. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he wants to create a “safe zone” for Syrian refugees - not for refugees fleeing the ongoing conflict, but for the millions of refugees already in Turkey, whom Erdogan has been threatening to send on to Europe and back to Syria for some time.

Yasmine El-Geressi writes about the President’s aims to over a million refugees over the border into the so-called safe zone it captured and the warnings from rights groups of forced deportations.

Artificial intelligence is quickly reshaping economic activity and human behavior while simultaneously becoming the basis of the new geopolitical competition; Russian president Vladimir Putin has even gone as far as to say that whoever masters AI will become the master of the world. Mohamed Abd El Kader Khalil writes that recent news of China’s supremacy in AI technology has prompted other countries to move fast and Saudi Arabia is no different as it sprints towards becoming a major AI hub by the end of the upcoming decade.

We invite you to read these articles and more on our website eng.majalla.com. As always, we welcome and value our reader’s feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

26 The Collapse of German Centrism

Issue 1778- December- 13/12/2019

22 Do No Harm in Hong Kong

18 Iran’s Protests Are Not Just About Gas Prices

09 Britain Speeds Towards Brexit as Johnson Wins Large Majority in Election

36 OK Gen Z, the Boomers Were Listening this Year, Sort of

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Who Needs Aspirin?

48 This Is Happiness’ and Irish Nostalgia‘ 3

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A Palestinian man holds up a lion cub before children while posing for a picture along a street in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on December 3, 2019, placed there by a local zoo owner to promote the venue.

(Getty)

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Filipinos parade an effigy depicting Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as they take part in a protest marking International Human Rights Day on December 2019 ,10 in Manila, Philippines. (Getty)

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Saudi Aramco Hits Crown Prince’s Trillion Goal 2$ Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) hit the 2$ trillion (1.56£ trillion) target sought by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday as its shares racked up a second day of gains, despite some scepticism about the state-owned oil firm’s value. Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) is the centrepiece of the Saudi crown prince’s vision for diversifying the kingdom away from its oil dependence by using the 25.6$ billion raised to develop other industries. But that is well below his 2016 plan to raise as much

as 100$ billion via a blockbuster international and domestic IPO. Aramco shares hit 38.7 riyals (10.32$), lifting its market value above 2$ trillion and closed at 36.8 riyals, a rise of %4.5 from Wednesday’s close and valuing the company at 1.96$ trillion, Refinitiv data showed.

of his life for political survival after a criminal indictment. A midnight deadline, the last of a series of set to allow for the formation of a new government after a September election, passed unmet. That triggered another election within three months. Under an earlier agreement between the two main parties, March 2 was the date to be set for the new election. What had once seemed nearly impossible to many Israelis - a third visit to polling stations after the inconclusive ballots of April and September - carries a heavy economic price: it will be well into 2020 before a new budget is passed, which will mean months of cutbacks that will weigh on growth.

With Netanyahu’s Fate in Question, Israel Heads to New Election Israel headed on Wednesday towards a third national election in less than a year with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing the fight

Six Bodies Retrieved from New Zealand Volcanic Island, Two Still Missing A New Zealand military team in gas masks and hazmat suits recovered six bodies on Friday from the volcanic island that fatally erupted earlier this week, as doctors worked to save badly burned survivors. An eight-person bomb disposal squad set off before dawn and spent four hours on White Island, which experts said could erupt again. Six of the eight bodies on the island were successfully retrieved and taken to a naval patrol vessel for transfer to the mainland for disaster victim identification. The team was unable to find and recover the remaining two bodies as the cumbersome protective equipment they needed to wear slowed down the tricky operation.

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US Unveils New Sanctions on Iran he US announced a fresh round of sanctions against Iran on Wednesday, targeting an Iranian shipping network they say is smuggling “lethal aid” to Yemen, and three agents of an Iranian airline company. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outlined the actions that target the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, E-Sail Shipping Company, and three agents for Mahan Air. Speaking at the State Department on Wednesday, Pompeo said the Iranian transportation companies were running programs that “involved the siphoning of funds away from the oppressed Iranian people and the augment the regime’s campaign of terror and intimidation at home and throughout the world.”

Britain Speeds Towards Brexit as Johnson Wins Large Majority in Election Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a resounding

election victory on Friday that will allow him to end three years of political paralysis and take Britain out of the European Union by Jan. 31.

Brexit represents the country’s biggest political and economic gamble since World War Two, cutting the world’s fifth largest economy adrift from the vast trading bloc and threatening the integrity of the United Kingdom. For Johnson, who campaigned on a vow to “Get Brexit Done”, victory was a vindication after antiBrexit opponents tried one manoeuvre after another to thwart him during his first chaotic months in office.

house on Monday and by the upper house on Wednesday night, has faced fierce opposition from indigenous people in the north-eastern states of Assam and Tripura. Protesters in Assam fear giving citizenship to Hindu and other immigrants from Bangladesh will place a burden on their resources and put the traditional Assamese way of life at risk, while many are also opposed to the openly discriminatory and anti-Muslim nature of the bill.

Algerians Protest Through Day of Disputed Election

Two Shot Dead in Indian Protests Over Citizenship Bill Two protesters have been shot dead by police in the Indian state of Assam during unrest over legislation that will allow for Hindu but not Muslim migrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan to become citizens of India. The citizenship amendment bill (CAB), passed by the parliamentary lower Thousands of people took to the streets in Algiers and other cities on Thursday chanting “No vote! We want freedom!” as Algerian authorities held a presidential election that protesters view as a charade to keep the ruling elite in power. In the capital, police rushed the crowd with sticks to disperse the marchers, but fell back as more protesters arrived. One young man of about 25 shouted “We are free!” as a policeman tried to arrest him. The militarybacked government sees the vote as the only way to end 10 months of unrest that brought down veteran president Abdelaziz Bouteflika in April. The demonstrators say no vote to replace him can be legitimate while the old guard still holds sway.

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Hezbollah is Up to its Old Tricks in Lebanon, but They No Longer Impress Anyone The Lebanese Street and the International Community are not Buying the Political Class’ Pleas for Compromises 10

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by Hanin Ghaddar

Protesters chant slogans as they march during a demonstration outside the Interior Ministry headquarters in the Lebanese capital Beirut on December 2019 ,11. (Getty)

In the past couple of weeks, five Lebanese attempted to kill themselves because of the deteriorating economic conditions. One man in the city of Arsal hanged himself because he could not give his daughter 1000 Lebanese Liras – which is less than one US Dollars, and one shot himself in the head due to his deteriorating financial situation and debts.

Two other Lebanese citizens tried to burn themselves alive, but failed because people interfered.

In the past two months, around 16,000 Lebanese lost their jobs as many companies have shut down due to the economic deterioration. This comes at a time when the World Bank warns that while 30 percent of the Lebanese population already live under the poverty line (set at $4 a day), the figure is likely to increase to 50 percent in the near future given the rate at which the financial situation is worsening.

These incidents of despair and helplessness are only going to increase as Lebanon faces the looming financial crisis. As people are failing to access their savings or salaries from banks, prices of basic goods increasing, and private sector shrinking, there are serious and legitimate concerns that the economy will collapse and that Lebanon will move to a new phase of financial and security mayhem sooner than expected.

According to economists and analysts in Lebanon, only an independent technocratic government can regain the local and international trust, which in turn could help Lebanon with financial stability packages.

Otherwise, the economic crash is coming with a Venezuelan scenario.

THE POLITICAL CLASS VS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY As Lebanon faces a financial and thereby a humanitarian disaster, the political class still won’t let go. The Hariri-Bassil-Hezbollah trio of power are still trying to come back to power – via a new government that looks pretty much like the same one.

They are still hoping that two things will help them stay in power. One, that the people will get tired from taking to the streets, and start to worry about poverty and losing their jobs, and two, that the international community will start fearing instability in Lebanon, and Europe will help and compromise out of fear of instability and a new wave of refugees from Lebanon.

To that goal, Hezbollah’s strategy has shifted. Their allies – caretaking PM Saad Hariri and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil – are conveying to the Europeans that help is needed before the Lebanese

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While Hezbollah might have prepared itself for a doomsday scenario and stocked up on weapons and dollars to survive through the rough times, this might not be enough for Hezbollah to survive on the long run. protests turn into security incidents and violence.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is slowly but surely taking over the squares and the protests.

The good news is that both the Lebanese street and the international community are not buying the political class’ excuses and pleas for compromises. So far, no bailout for Lebanon will take place without a proper transitional government that will gain the trust of both the Lebanese people and the international community.

The Lebanon meeting held in Paris on Wednesday made it very clear that no international bailout will happen unless an independent and reformist government takes over. Except for possible humanitarian assistance to provide basic goods, the Lebanese current care-taking government and the central bank will get no financial assistance.

In place of the current leadership, a transitional government composed of independent bureaucrats known for their impartiality should be enlisted to run the country. This body would be separated into three parts: economic, constitutional, and judicial. An economic committee would focus on bringing the Lebanese economy back from the abyss; a constitutional committee would draw up a new electoral law that is both nonsectarian and representative; and a judicial committee would create statues to investigate current cases of corruption that had brought Lebanon to its current economic crisis, prevent corruption and at tax evasion On the economy more specifically, the newly instituted committee would set about implementing real reforms, such as solving the crisis over electricity, which now consumes about a third of the state budget.

The electoral law proposed above would produce a new parliament, which in turn would result a new president and cabinet. A serious effort to contain corruption in Lebanon would require applying the

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rule of law on old and new political figures, in order to prevent another crack in the fragile economy.

THE HEZBOLLAH FACTOR The problem with Lebanon is both corruption and Iran’s increasing role and influence. The international community – mainly the Europeans – might fear instability and refugees – but with the US maximum pressure campaign on Iran and its regional proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon will not be allowed to stay in the next government, mainly that its allies are the most corrupt political figures in Lebanon.

Of course, this is not going to pass easily, as Hezbollah insists on shaping the next government as it pleases, ignoring all the warnings and signs of the economic collapse. Their rhetoric so far has been that even if the state institutions collapse and go bankrupt, Hezbollah will still has the money to provide salaries and services to its people.

The ability of Hezbollah to wreak havoc has become clear, in Lebanon and throughout the region.

However, they failed to prove their ability to deploy any model of sustainable governance or lead any efforts to develop economies it feasts on. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran are examples.

While Hezbollah might have prepared itself for a doomsday scenario and stocked up on weapons and dollars to survive through the rough times, this might not be enough for Hezbollah to survive on the long run. Missiles and money are important and will help the party to survive for a few months, but they will not be able to survive the economic crisis at hand.

For these reasons, Hezbollah still insists that Hariri should come back to form the next government.

They know that they desperately need someone who

Hezbollah is desperate and they need Hariri, and it has become clear to the international community that Hariri has been Hezbollah’s cover and close ally.

can communicate with the Europeans and travel to Washington. They need someone to facilitate the aid to Lebanon and maintain Hezbollah’s interests.

They also need someone who can constitute a good “Sunni” cover as the GCC has distanced itself from Lebanon since Hezbollah took over.

Hezbollah is desperate and they need Hariri, and it has become clear to the international community that Hariri has been Hezbollah’s cover and close ally. It has also become clear that Hariri’s alliance with Bassil is problematic, in the light of the latter’s exposed corruption and shameless energy and

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Supporters of Lebanon›s Shiite Hezbollah and Amal groups clash with riot police as they were heading to the area where anti-government protests were taking place early on December 2019 ,12 in central Beirut. (Getty)

electricity deals.

The next phase of the crisis is going to be long and excruciating, especially to the Lebanese who will have to deal with economic and political frustration, combined with violence when they complain. The international community has just told Lebanon’s political class that with Hezbollah and its corrupt allies, no financial assistance will come to Lebanon.

At the end, the solution is in the hands of Hezbollah and Iran. If they continue with their strategy of gripping to power and using violence, they will be blamed for the economic collapse. It is no longer

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a secret that their allies are the ones delaying the transition and the people’s anger will eventually reach them. Their weapons can empty the squares of the protestors, but these weapons cannot buy popular support. Eventually, the voices of streets will be translated in the next elections.

The Paris meeting was one of many to follow, and the international community can wait. However, the Lebanese people will not.

Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Turkey’s Waning Welcome to Syrian Refugees Erdogan Wants Refugees to Move to a ‹Safe Zone’, While Rights Groups Warn of Forced Deportations

by Yasmine El-Geressi Turkish troops invaded northern Syria after President Trump moved U.S. forces out of their

way. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he wants to create a “safe zone” for Syrian refugees - not for refugees fleeing the ongoing conflict, but for the millions of refugees already

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in Turkey, whom Erdogan has been threatening to send on to Europe and back to Syria for some time. This week, the President said that the country aims to send one million refugees over the border into the so-called safe zone it captured. With many refugees building new lives for themselves and families in Turkey, many may be unwilling to return, while rights groups warn of forced deportations.

According to opinion polls, public discontent is growing. Those feelings, analysts warn, are being aggravated

by Turkey’s recession-hit economy and high levels of unemployment.

RISING TENSIONS IN TURKEY Since the start of the conflict in Syria more than seven years ago, Turkey has hosted a steadily increasing number of refugees from that civil war. The country is now home to the largest number of refugees worldwide, reaching around 4 million people today. 98 percent of the Syrian population in Turkey live in local communities, not in refugee camps or temporary protection settlements. Over 64 percent of the urban Syrian households live close to or below the poverty line.

Newly arrived Syrian Kurdish refugees walk with their belongings after crossing into Turkey from the Syrian border town of Kobani on September 2014 ,26 near the southeastern town of Suruc in Sanliurfa province, Turkey. (Getty)

Syrians make up about 3.7 million of them, 44 percent of whom are children. They are sheltered under “temporary protection” regulation which Turkish authorities say automatically applies to all Syrians seeking asylum as the country does not officially recognise Syrians as refugees under international refugee law. Turkey has a responsibility under international law not to return Syrians to Syria if they would face torture, violence or persecution. This rule of nonreturn – called “non-refoulement” – is a core principle of international law related to refugees and incorporated into human rights standards prohibiting torture and other inhuman treatment.

The principle was integrated into domestic law

by Turkey in 2011. Despite not recognizing the Syrians as refugees, Turkey is obligated to uphold the rule of nonreturn.

While it is illegal to forcibly deport people to Syria, as it exposes them to a real risk of serious human rights violations, Turkey claims that all those who return to Syria do so voluntarily.

Turkish officials say 315,000 people have left for Syria on a voluntary basis. However, a Human Rights Watch report published in September

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said that Turkish authorities in Istanbul and Antakya had arbitrarily detained and deported dozens of Syrians and possibly many more to northern Syria between January and September 2019 despite active hostilities there. Deported Syrians said that Turkish officials forced them to sign forms they were not allowed to read, in some cases after beating or threatening them, and transported them to Syria. In late July, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu denied that Turkey had “deported” Syrians but said that anyone “who voluntarily wants to go back to Syria” can benefit from procedures allowing them to return to unspecified “safe areas.” Human Rights Watch research directly contradicts this, finding that Turkey has unlawfully deported Syrians to Idlib governorate, one of the most dangerous areas in Syria.

An Amnesty report published in October confirmed the already mounting evidence of a crackdown on Syrian refugees inside Turkey since the summer. «It is likely that hundreds of people across Turkey were swept up, detained and transported against their will to one of the world›s most dangerous countries,» the report said Among the cases highlighted in the report is that of Qasim (not his real name), a -39year-old father from Aleppo. He said he was detained in a police station in the Turkish city of Konya for six days, where officers reportedly told him: “You have a choice. One or two months, or a year, in prison – or you go to Syria.” In a second case, John, a Syrian Christian, told a similar story, alleging that Turkish migration officials told him: “If you ask for a lawyer, we will keep you six or seven

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months, and we will hurt you.

Turkey’s recent deportations of Syrians from Istanbul and Antakya result from policies that have increasingly denied large numbers of Syrian asylum seekers protection. Over the past four years Turkey, which initially had an open border policy for Syrian refugees, sealed off its border with Syria, with hundreds of thousands of Syrians now trapped with little assistance in displacement camps and villages on the other side of the closed border. Turkish border guards have carried out mass summary pushbacks and killed and injured Syrians as they try to cross.

In late 2017 and early 2018, Istanbul and nine provinces on the border with Syria suspended registration of newly arriving asylum seekers. On July 22, authorities in Istanbul set a four-week deadline for Syrians living without approval in Turkey’s largest city to return to provinces where they are registered or face forced removal to those regions. The order followed two clashes in the city earlier this year when crowds attacked Syrian shops and properties.

Erdogan is facing increasing domestic pressure to reduce the refugee presence, which he knows could pose a challenge to his power. The July statement came amid rising xenophobic sentiment across the political spectrum against Syrian and other refugees in Turkey, with increased calls by some politicians and sectors of the electorate for Syrians to go home.

Turkey’s recent deportations of Syrians from Istanbul and Antakya result from policies that have increasingly denied large numbers of Syrian asylum seekers protection.

According to opinion polls, public discontent is growing. Those feelings, analysts warn, are being aggravated by Turkey’s recession-hit economy and high levels of unemployment. Turks who are resentful of the Syrians view them as offering cheap labour and taking jobs from Turks, and using services including health and education.

A poll in 2016 showed 72 percent had no problems with refugees. These days and across the political spectrum around 80 percent wish for their return to their home country. A sharp 2018 economic downturn has had an effect. This is also a historical pattern for host countries. “As the number of refugees and length of time they remain in a country grows,” Fletcher School’s Karen Jacobsen notes, “citizens… become less willing to provide for them.”\

JUST THE BEGINNING In September, Erdogan stood up at the UN with a large poster board map of Syria, marked with a 30 kilometer-wide border zone that he said could house up to 2 million Syrian refugees. “The

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Syrian refugee children play in front of a poster of Turkey›s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Kahramanmaras refugee camp on September 2019 ,19 in Kahramanmaras, Turkey. (Getty)

Turkey’s latest incursion into northern Syria in October upped the ante.

Erdogan threatened to unload many of the estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey after European capitals responded with concern over his decision to send the Turkish military into Syria to push a Kurdish separatist group off the border.

refugees can be resettled, saving them from tent camps or container camps,” Erdoğan said. “This is not a burden that we can bear exclusively as the Republic of Turkey.” The plan was criticized by international human rights monitors. Regardless of any assurances, «safe zones» established during other conflicts have rarely been safe, and cannot justify forcibly returning refugees. Historically, civilian safe zones carved out from a war zone have also become targets for warring factions.

The Srebrenica massacre of 1995 happened in a UN-designated safe zone.

Turkey’s latest incursion into northern Syria in October upped the ante. Erdogan threatened to unload many of the estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey after European capitals responded with concern over his decision to send the Turkish military into Syria to push a Kurdish separatist group off the border.

He argued his plan to open a security zone along the border to house hundreds of thousands of refugees was necessary, even as the international community expressed grave concern that this amounts to ethnic cleansing. In a speech before

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his AKP, Erdogan warned that any condemnation from Europe would result in his, «opening the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way.”

The military’s seizure of a strip of land inside Syria 120 km (75 miles) long and around 30 km (18 miles) wide running from the town of Ras al Ain to Tel Abyad, has created a physical place for deportees to be sent. But Syrians in Turkey from these areas number 471,000. How many will want to go back is unknown. Convincing refugees from elsewhere in Syria will be even harder. The government states that all returns would be voluntary, pointing to those having returned to areas earlier occupied by Turkey.

Last week, Erdogan met his German, French and British counterparts on the sidelines of a NATO summit in London to hold talks on developments in Syria and his “safe zone” plan. After the summit, Erdogan said one country, which he did not name, had pledged support for the plan but that Germany, France and Britain had not done so. He had previously said that Qatar could back it .The European Union and Turkey’s allies in NATO have rejected its calls for financial assistance and condemned the Turkish offensive, which they said might hinder the fight against ISIS in Syria. Turkey has dismissed the concerns.

US Secretary of Defense said this week that the situation in northern Syria had stabilised, but he added that the U.S. «expected turmoil» as Turkey moved Syrian refugees into the region.

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Iran’s Protests Are Not Just About Gas Prices Repression Won’t Solve the Deeper Problems Bringing Iranians to the Streets

by Mohammad Ali Kadivar, Saber Khani, and Abolfazl Sotoudeh A wave of protests swept across Iran last week. The government had abruptly hiked gas prices in order to offset its budget deficit at a time of high inflation and negative economic growth. Angry protesters clashed with security forces, set government buildings and banks on fire, and blocked roads. The government responded with an iron fist, killing more than 200 protesters, arresting thousands, and shutting down the Internet across the country for

about a week.

In a country where anti-government demonstrations are not allowed, widespread protests with an explicit anti-regime tone are significant. But to understand the meaning of these protests— to know what motivated protesters and why—is exceedingly difficult, given the restrictions on free expression and international communication that currently prevail in Iran. The identities and agendas of the protesters matter for their own sake. They also matter because Iran is a country eternally in the spotlight and

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often misunderstood.

It is not possible to question every protester or to reliably survey public opinion. But meaningful data about Iran do exist and can be fruitfully matched to the map of protests. We identified the counties that witnessed at least one day of protest, based on the videos that protesters uploaded to both domestic and foreign websites. Then we examined socioeconomic and political data for those counties. Using a simple logistic regression, we were able to estimate the effect of such factors as electoral participation, development, wealth, population size, and unemployment rates on the outbreak of protest.

Our study shows that the current wave of protest is geographically widespread and most likely motivated by more than acute economic pain. We found that 20.5 percent of all Iranian counties had at least one day of protest in this wave (89 out of 429). Economic grievances sparked the initial surge of action, but once the protests began, they appeared to activate deeper, pre-existing dissatisfactions with the Islamic Republic as a whole. In fact, our results indicate that while the regime gained support following recent elections, specifically the 2017 presidential election, that support has since eroded.

Iranian protesters block a road during a demonstration against an increase in gasoline prices in the central city of Shiraz on November 2019 ,16.

(Getty)

The geographic distribution of the protests offers a clue as to just what has happened. The areas of the country that resisted the rise in the price of petroleum are precisely the areas that have benefited the most from government long-term developmental programs. The government has insisted that the protests are a conspiracy against the Islamic Republic, but our analysis shows that the Islamic Republic, through its long-term developmental and welfare programs, has empowered a citizenry that now resists neoliberal policies, such as cuts to energy subsidies.

Our analysis further provides systematic support for the observation that Iran’s youth cohort has become a source of anti-government protest. As long as government does not address the needs and demands of this demographic, further unrest is possible.

TO VOTE OR TO PROTEST? The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, touts voting in the country’s elections as a means of demonstrating support for the Islamic Republic as a whole. For citizens, voting is also ostensibly one of the few available means of expressing one’s preferences and advancing one’s interests within the system. But like the citizens of other electoral authoritarian regimes, many Iranian voters debate whether voting really does offer them meaningful choices: whether, by voting for a moderate candidate in a particular election, they can help push the regime in a more democratic or liberal direction, or at least

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Economic grievances sparked the initial surge of action, but once the protests began, they appeared to activate deeper, pre-existing dissatisfactions with the Islamic Republic as a whole. prevent hard-liners from consolidating control; or whether participating in elections only contributes to the regime’s claims for legitimacy.

For these reasons, voter turnout data and electoral choices seemed to us an appropriate mine to tap in understanding citizens’ attitudes toward the state. We used turnout in the 2017 presidential election to help determine the extent to which citizens in a particular county believe they can pursue their grievances and demands through the institutions of the Islamic Republic. Citizens who do not participate in elections most likely do not believe that the channels the regime offers can be effective for them.

We found that the counties with lower rates of electoral participation were more likely to witness a day of protest.

The average turnout in protesting counties was 13 percent less than in nonprotesting counties. We concluded that economic grievances were likelier to inspire protest in areas where frustration with the whole system was endemic. This finding could be interpreted to mean that economic hardship turned frustrations with the system into assertive protest activities.

The finding was all the more striking when we tried the same analysis for the last protest wave, in 18–2017.

Electoral turnout was not a robust predictor of protest in a given county at that time. One possible reason for the difference is that the Internet played a significant role in spreading protest across the country in 18–2017, such that the protest map for that wave may not correspond with the map of political grievances. During this year’s wave of protest, however, the Internet was shut down. Only the depth and politicization of grievances could then spread the protest across the country.

For this year’s protests, we wanted to know not only whether participation in the election correlated with protest activity but also whether the choice of candidate, among those who did vote, could be mapped onto a county’s activism in a meaningful way. In 2017, President Hassan

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Rouhani was the reformist-backed candidate, running against Ebrahim Raisi, who was the main candidate of the hard-line faction. We found that counties that voted more heavily for Rouhani were more likely to witness a day of protest and counties with a higher Raisi vote were less so.

Rouhani’s average vote in protesting cities was 59 percent, while his vote in nonprotesting cities was about 51 percent.

These results highlight an important dynamic in Iranian politics. For many citizens, voting for Rouhani was a pragmatic choice, not an indicator of a deeper belief in the regime’s legitimacy, as Khamenei likes to claim. Given the high incidence of protest in counties that voted decisively for the moderate candidate in 2017, we can surmise that some of these voters are disappointed with the outcome of their choice.

Rouhani’s campaign promises included many on which he has not delivered, such as pledges to introduce political reforms and improve the state of Iran’s economy. Some voters are perhaps so disappointed in the outcome of their effort to address problems through the electoral institutions of the regime that they have taken to the streets to manifest their anger and frustration. The violent repression of the protests is likely to intensify such feelings. Some of Rouhani’s reformist supporters have recently stated that this crackdown marks the end of electoral politics as usual in the Islamic Republic.

MAKING AN OPPOSITION The price hikes that touched off the protests have proximate economic causes: U.S. sanctions, together with government mismanagement and corruption, have led to a serious economic contraction in Iran. But a deeper dynamic related to Iran’s long-term development may also have helped to make the fuel price increase so explosive.

The protests have taken place in the most developed parts of Iran. We measured the level of development in each county in terms of literacy rate, the percentage of college

The Islamic Republic has long struggled to provide jobs and opportunities for its young population.

students, the number of public hospital beds per 1,000, and the percentage of households that receive electricity.

That higher levels of development correlate strongly with a higher incidence of protest dovetails with an argument that has gained prominence in the study of development and social movements. Scholars have found that citizens in developmental states that invest in infrastructure, education, and health care are then empowered to demand greater political participation. When these states take a neoliberal turn and try to cut subsidies or privatize state enterprises, that empowered citizenry becomes the opposition against the state. Karl Marx once said that the bourgeoisie produces its own gravediggers. One can likewise say that developmental states make their own opposition.

Iran is a developmental state that has made a considerable investment in education, health care, and infrastructure nationwide. The counties that have experienced protests are among those whose development has benefited most from state support—and where people are therefore particularly likely to oppose its withdrawal, in the form of cuts to energy subsidies. Islamic Republic officials have called protesters “thugs” and depicted their mobilization

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Iranians line up to cast their ballot at a polling station in Tehran on May ,19 2017. (Getty)

Today’s protests have arisen in places with some distinct, shared characteristics. They are developed, populous, and urbanized counties with large numbers of young men. provide jobs and opportunities for its young population.

Our finding suggests that the frustration of this cohort contributed to this last wave of protest. Curiously, we do not find the same pattern for the 18–2017 protest wave—a finding that suggests the grievances of this cohort have been politicized and activated in the last two years.

THE NEXT WAVE Today’s protests have arisen in places with some distinct, shared characteristics. They are developed, populous, and urbanized counties with large numbers of young men.

And they are places where significant numbers of eligible voters either choose not to vote or vote for the moderate candidate. Such counties will likely remain at the forefront of oppositional political activity in Iran. across the country as a plot against the state directed from abroad. But our findings suggest that the Islamic Republic has itself empowered the citizens who now defy it on the streets.

The protests largely occurred in counties with large urban populations: the more populous the county, the likelier it was to have a day of protest in both the current wave and the one in 18–2017. This finding is not surprising, because critical masses of people can more easily form on the streets of larger cities. Also unsurprising is the fact that after controlling for the size of urban population in each county, we found a positive and significant effect for the size of the young male population between the ages of 15 and 25.

Social scientists speak of this effect as a youth bulge, meaning that disproportionally large youth cohorts make countries or localities susceptible to riots, civil wars, or criminal activities. The reason is that states have difficulty providing jobs and resources to very large young populations. Dissatisfied with the allocation of resources, these angry young men are prone to join urban riots, for example. The Islamic Republic has long struggled to

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If it is true, as our findings suggest, that nonvoters and voters for moderate candidates have converged in resorting to street protests, then the repressive tactics that have met those protests will likely bring these groups closer still.

In fact, artists, reformist politicians, and imprisoned leaders of the Green Movement, most of whom implicitly or explicitly supported moderate candidates in recent elections, have issued statements condemning government repression and demanding structural changes in Iranian politics. If such sentiments prevail among moderate voters and those who do not always vote, Iran could see a decline in turnout for parliamentary and presidential elections in 2021 and 2022.

The Islamic Republic has long relied on elections to gain support and legitimacy. But our results suggest that when nonelectoral institutions obstruct Iranian citizens from achieving the goals they pursued as voters, they may turn to protest instead. The regime has taken a heavy hand in response to the latest street actions. But repression will not address any of the factors that our analysis identified as contributing to this wave of protests, and so it is likely that a similar wave will rise in its wake.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Do No Harm in Hong Kong What the United States Can-and Can’t-Do to Help Preserve the City’s Autonomy

by Kurt Tong

stands on the city’s future.

In the months after large-scale protests first broke out in Hong Kong last June, U.S. policy circles remained relatively quiet.

Yet as demonstrations turned violent and rumors of a Beijingdirected crackdown spread, concern in Washington grew. Last week, President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which arrived at his desk with vetoproof backing from both houses of Congress. The legislation gives the U.S. government a stronger mandate to adjust its legal stance toward Hong Kong, as well as offering renewed sanctions authorities and a clearer expression of where the United States

Yet the biggest questions for U.S. policy still lie ahead. At issue today in Hong Kong is not simply when and how the protests end.

More consequential is whether Hong Kong’s uniquely autonomous status within China, as defined by the “one country, two systems” paradigm, can survive the current crisis. The most important focus for U.S. policymakers should be to do what they can to reinforce that paradigm, while avoiding steps that would undermine it.

The status quo in Hong Kong, with its high degree of autonomy, extensive personal freedoms, and strong rule of law, generates enormous benefits not just for the people of Hong Kong but also for

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the United States and China. Above all else, Washington must remember what it can, and cannot, do to ensure that this status quo continues. Done right, U.S. policy can help keep the Hong Kong dream alive. But there is a real risk that the United States could inadvertently make matters worse.

ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS Ever since its handover from the United Kingdom to China in 1997, Hong Kong has enjoyed special status within China. “One country, two systems” is the shorthand used to describe that status—Hong Kong’s mostly separate system of laws and governance and generally Westernized business practices, which persist (and thrive) despite overall Chinese sovereignty. This status, promised in a 1984 treaty between China and the United Kingdom and codified in the Basic Law approved

by Beijing, has allowed Hong Kong to continue to enjoy freedom of expression and rule of law, despite flying the flag of the People’s Republic of China since the end of British colonial rule. It has also been the central factor in Hong Kong’s commercial and financial success.

Tsang Chi-kin, a -18year-old student protester who was shot in the chest by police during a protest in Tsuen Wan on October 1, leaves the Wan Chai district court after facing charges of rioting and assaulting police, in Hong Kong on December 2019 ,5.

(Getty)

Widespread protests started in June in response to the Hong Kong government’s politically tone-deaf proposal to allow for the extradition of fugitives to stand trial in China. The actual proposed change was relatively narrow: it would have applied only to certain serious cases in which individuals were suspected of breaking specific laws in mainland China before traveling to Hong Kong.

That the Hong Kong business community and general public so strongly opposed the legislation was a testament to their increasing distrust of the Chinese government and long-held disdain for its unfair judicial system. When the Hong Kong government ignored this opposition, massive peaceful protests broke out. Further mistakes and vacillation by the government helped set off a cycle of increasingly violent demonstrations, heavy-handed police reaction, and deepening political polarization. Initial concerns about judicial independence have since expanded into renewed calls for democratic elections for the city’s chief executive.

That the extradition legislation could spark such a reaction indicates how fraught and complicated the situation in Hong Kong has become in recent years. In part, dissatisfaction stems from resentment over extreme economic disparity between rich and poor and also over mainland Chinese “intrusion” into Hong Kong’s culture and society. Real wages in Hong Kong for middle-class people have been flat for over a decade, while housing costs have soared.

Most young adults live in tiny, unaffordable flats and often compete for advancement with highly qualified job seekers from the mainland. Hongkongers also chafe at mainlanders’

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President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which arrived at his desk with veto-proof backing from both houses of Congress. “overtourism” and increasing use of Mandarin rather than the traditional Cantonese.

Yet such structural resentments have been inflamed by Beijing’s increased interference in Hong Kong politics and decision-making. As the U.S. State Department has documented in its annual report on Hong Kong, interference has taken the form of political screening of legislative candidates, prosecutorial overreach, and the politicization of education and academic research.

Meanwhile, the official bodies in Beijing tasked with monitoring and influencing Hong Kong affairs have grown in size and ambition, and these Hong Kong watchers have created their own self-serving narratives for Beijing’s consumption, including exaggerating “separatist” sentiment in Hong Kong and spinning conspiratorial fairy tales about foreigners organizing the city’s democracy movement.

Still, despite these worrisome trends, it is important to remember how autonomous Hong Kong remains. The contrast between Hong Kong’s relative openness and the restrictiveness of mainland China continues to astound people who visit both. Hongkongers join public protests, surf the Internet, and travel to other nations without any impediments or restrictions—all unthinkable freedoms for mainland Chinese. Political discourse and the media in Hong Kong are wide open. Business decisions are made within a framework of laws and standards that parallels that of London, not Shanghai or Beijing.

Indeed, in the same week that international media focused on the dramatic standoff between protesters and police at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, other developments offered reminders of the city’s distinct status and persistent strengths. On November 18, Hong Kong’s High Court rejected the city government’s ban on wearing facemasks at protests (triggering ominous but vague threats of a rare judicial overrule by Beijing). And on November 24, the Hong Kong government held peaceful, orderly, and genuinely democratic district council elections; as expected, Hong Kong’s opposition parties scored a major victory amid record turnout, reflecting the antigovernment

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mood of the electorate.

A USEFUL STATUS QUO The goal of U.S. policymakers and others in the international community should be not to instigate change in Hong Kong but to reinforce the status quo. That means avoiding steps that would erode international confidence in the “one country, two systems” construct or would “punish China” with the unintended effect of also undermining Hong Kong.

In recent months, U.S. officials have made a number of high-level declarative statements in support of Hong Kong’s autonomy and the “one country, two systems” paradigm. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for example, recently called for an end to violence and an independent review of Hong Kong police actions, while also reminding Beijing of its obligations under the Sino-British Joint Declaration. President Trump has sometimes confused matters by linking Hong Kong to the U.S.-China trade talks—mystifying China, which sees no such linkage. But the Human Rights and Democracy legislation passed and signed in late November makes clear that Washington stands in support of a continued high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.

But the legislation also raises a new risk for U.S. policy.

Most significant, it requires the secretary of state to “certify,” on an annual basis, that Hong Kong has sufficient autonomy to be treated as separate from the rest of China for the purposes of the application of U.S. law. This distinct treatment under U.S. law means that the United States can apply different regulations to Hong Kong than it does to China, which allows for separate bilateral agreements and

Decertification would both harm U.S. economic interests in Asia and severely damage the livelihood of Hongkongers— the very people whose freedoms and way of life Washington means to protect.

a much closer economic and cultural relationship.

Until now, the State Department has merely had to prepare an annual report on autonomy. The most recent report, in March 2019, concluded that “Hong Kong maintains a sufficient—although diminished—degree of autonomy under the ‘one country, two systems’ framework to justify continued special treatment by the United States for bilateral agreements and programs.” Under the new law, should that judgment start to change for the worse, the U.S. government might be compelled to precipitously “decertify” Hong Kong—a step that would have a dramatic, and damaging, impact on its external relations, its economic standing, and, by extension, its prospects for sustained autonomy.

Even if other governments did not follow suit—and most would not—decertification would likely lead to higher bilateral tariffs (and thus the loss of what is now the United States’ largest bilateral trade surplus); tightened rules for investment and technology transactions; and a breakdown in valuable law enforcement cooperation, including joint work to fight money laundering and drug trafficking. There might be an even bigger impact outside government channels, because decertification would undermine the international business community’s confidence in the long-term sustainability of the Hong

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Protesters are seen holding up American Flags during a Rally in Hong Kong, China, October 2019 ,14. (Getty)

Washington’s goal should be to keep the Hong Kong paradigm viable at least until 2047—the end date of China’s stated guarantee of “one country, two systems”—if not beyond.

A proactive and forward-looking effort to support the city could include new government-to-government dialogues on investment rules, financial regulations, and Internet and data architecture. It could also include other initiatives that underscore the autonomy of Hong Kong, such as including it in the Visa Waiver or Preclearance travel programs. Last week, the Parliament of Australia approved a new free trade agreement with Hong Kong, as a way of locking in the benefits of Hong Kong’s autonomy. The United States should consider a similar approach.

Kong business model. Some 1,400 U.S. companies are active in Hong Kong, and many of them—including all the major U.S. financial institutions—treat Hong Kong as their regional headquarters. Decertification would both harm U.S. economic interests in Asia and severely damage the livelihood of Hongkongers—the very people whose freedoms and way of life Washington means to protect.

China, the actual target of U.S. condemnation, would be hurt as well, but much less severely. And the United States, meanwhile, would have relinquished once and for all its major source of influence over Hong Kong’s situation.

THE POWER OF POSITIVE REINFORCEMENT There are, fortunately, ways for the United States to have a constructive impact on the future of Hong Kong.

By treating it as an independent actor, and the nexus for information and ideas in Asia that it still is, Washington can meaningfully reinforce Hong Kong’s autonomy within the “one country, two systems” framework. Focusing U.S. policy on supporting and strengthening Hong Kong will do far more good—and risk far less harm—than will attempts to compel changes in, or impose direct costs on, policy decisions originating in Beijing.

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The United States should also pick up the tempo of high-level official visits to Hong Kong, at least once the dust from the current instability has settled. Members of Congress have visited in recent years, but the last cabinetlevel visits were in 2016 and 2017; the secretary of state has not visited since 2011. Perhaps the next time the vice president gives a speech on China, he should do it from Hong Kong.

In the end, Hong Kong’s future course hinges on a question of confidence. If people in Hong Kong, in China, and around the world have confidence in its autonomy and the “one country, two systems” framework, that confidence will be self-reinforcing. For the United States, Hong Kong is a useful platform for the projection of open-society values and U.S. economic power in the IndoPacific. Washington’s goal should be to keep the Hong Kong paradigm viable at least until 2047—the end date of China’s stated guarantee of “one country, two systems”— if not beyond.

It may be tempting for Washington to treat Hong Kong primarily as an opportunity to highlight the flaws of China’s approach to governance. But that will only heighten doubts about the future of Hong Kong—and thus hurt its prospects, despite a professed desire to save it. A better policy would emphasize the lasting value that the United States sees in the city’s unique system and do what it can to bolster international confidence in Hong Kong.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Collapse of German Centrism

Rhetorical Concessions Alone Won’t Swamp the Populists’ Momentum

by Peter Kuras In the late summer of 2015, when it seemed that the flow of refugees into Europe might never abate, German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a press conference. She’d just visited a refugee center near Dresden when she uttered what she surely thought was a throwaway line.

“Wir schaffen das,” she said, or “We’ll manage this.”

In its banality, the phrase seemed equally far removed from Barack Obama’s “Change We Can Believe In” and Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again.” Whereas politicians in the United States traffic in the aspirational language of marketing, political debates in Germany are couched in the language of trivial chores. You could say “Wir schaffen das” about the laundry, the grocery shopping, or taking out the trash. The phrase was typical

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of a politics that has long tried to bury ideology under layers of administrative detail.

Merkel’s detractors, however, pounced on the quote, which they argued betrayed a dangerously casual attitude toward the risks of mass migration. The fiercest criticism came from the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, whose co-leader Alexander Gauland angrily declared, “We don’t want to manage it at all.” What had been a nod to Merkel’s core virtue—competence—soon became an ironic slogan that her enemies hung around the chancellor’s neck like the proverbial albatross.

Robin Schmiemann during a neo-Nazi and right-wing supporters protest march to voice their anger at the reporting by journalists Julian Feldmann, David Janzen and Andre Aden on November 2019 ,23 in Hanover, Germany. (Getty)

In the four years since Merkel’s press conference, German politics has drifted steadily to the right, and a pat narrative has emerged holding her immigration policies to blame: Merkel’s generous asylum policy alienated many of the center-right voters who formed the traditional base of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and drove them into the eager arms of the AfD. For the CDU—or indeed any centrist party—to stanch the flow of voters to the AfD, the argument goes, it will have to shift rightward itself, especially on issues of immigration and culture. But such a strategy is unlikely to succeed. After all, the AfD has itself moved ever further to the right over the past few years, and it has done so without losing the support of its constituents. To imagine that the centrist right could win back these voters merely by tweaking its messaging and adopting a few far-right talking points strains credulity.

AfD member Höcke has welldocumented connections to neoNazis. communities in eastern Germany.

Right-wing biases, and at times even extremist tendencies, infect German institutions, too. Consider the authorities’ botched investigation into the National Socialist Underground (NSU), a far-right terrorist group. Over the course of a decade, NSU murdered ten people—nearly all of them immigrants—robbed 14 banks, and carried out three bombings. All the while, German intelligence insisted that the crimes couldn’t be racially motivated and were instead linked to organized crime. Only when one of the group’s members turned herself in to the police in 2011 was the country’s national security agency willing to concede that racial hatred lay behind the crimes.

More recently, a neo-Nazi network was uncovered in the Frankfurt police force, and police in Saxony were found to have illegally ordered the removal of antifascist campaign posters.

Pluralism, and not ethnonationalism, has characterized postwar public life in Germany, not because rightwing extremism was absent but because a powerful consensus followed the Second World War: soziale Marktwirtschaft, or “social market economics,” which That the AfD’s extremist positions can mobilize combined free-market competition with a robust a large contingent of German voters should not welfare state and strong support for trade unions. come as a surprise. A longitudinal study begun by It was this mix of well-regulated free markets and researchers at the University of Leipzig in 2002 continuous investment in public goods that helped has consistently found that more than one-third of Germany’s economy rise from the rubble of World Germans hold xenophobic views. The sociologist War II to the dominant position within Europe that it Wilhelm Heitmeyer conducted a ten-year-long enjoys today. empirical survey between 2002 and 2011 and came to similar conclusions. His final survey revealed Germany, like the United States and Britain, tacked that nearly half of all Germans believed that there to what was called “the new center” in the 1990s, were “too many foreigners” in the country, while but in doing so dismantled the very institutions that one-third agreed that there were “natural differences had largely kept extremist thinking out of electoral between blacks and whites.” These attitudes long politics. The wave of privatization and deregulation predate the 2015 refugee crisis and have manifested that marked this era should be familiar, in its broad themselves time and again, perhaps most notably outlines, to Anglophone readers: Benefits that had in the years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when once been relatively generous and widely available for far-right thugs regularly terrorized immigrant qualified applicants were now meager and contingent

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on the recipient’s compliance with a number of arbitrary and at times humiliating regulations. The results, after several decades of these policies, are sobering. In 2013, for example, top earners in Germany were appropriating wealth at rates similar to those of 1913, according to the 2018 World Inequality Report. Deregulation and neoliberal policies have done as much damage to people’s sense of shared responsibility as to their sense of economic security.

The “new center” is too thin to bind an increasingly diverse German society, and, as a result, political consensus around centrist policies is crumbling.

The question today is what will replace that consensus.

Racist and anti-Semitic views are prevalent enough within the German population that a new accord could emerge around ethnonationalism, as has been the case in Hungary, for example. It need not, however. In 2015, anti-immigrant marches known as the Pegida movement took place, and police counted 25,000 protesters in Dresden, one of Pegida’s strongholds. Yet at least 30,000 people came to the counter-protest in nearby Leipzig. In 2018, an antiracist march in Berlin attracted more than 240,000 demonstrators. Protests against climate change and against the inequities of the housing market have likewise demonstrated the popularity of progressive values. And certain social welfare priorities, like early childhood education, attract broad public support. That the left has had difficulty translating this momentum into electoral success is in part because it spans several parties with different visions. Whereas voters who have fled the

Recently, a neo-Nazi network was uncovered in the Frankfurt police force, and police in Saxony were found to have illegally ordered the removal of antifascist campaign posters.

CDU to the right have almost all gone to the AfD, left-of-center voters cast their ballots for the Social Democrats, the Greens, the far-left Die Linke (the Left), and a number of smaller parties. Hope, it seems, comes in more flavors than fear.

A recent round of regional elections underscored the potential of robust social welfare programs to sap the far right of its momentum. The AfD made significant gains in the East German states of Saxony and Brandenburg in September, and many expected the party would do well equally in Thuringia the following month. The prospect of a strong AfD performance in this particular state was especially disturbing, given that the AfD’s leader there is Björn Höcke, one of the party’s most outspoken and extremist members, who is famous for criticizing Berlin’s Holocaust memorial as an unnecessary “monument of shame.” But although the AfD saw its share of the vote increase, the election’s true winner was Die Linke.

Die Linke, which rose from the ashes of East Germany’s communist ruling party after the country’s reunification, had done poorly in recent elections

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Co-leader of the parliamentary group of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) far-right party Alexander Gauland (R) walks past German Chancellor Angela Merkel after addressing the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, on October 2019 ,17 in Berlin, before an EU summit on Brexit in Brussels. (Getty)

Merkel’s generous asylum policy alienated many of the center-right voters who formed the traditional base of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and drove them into the eager arms of the AfD. and Saxony, Ramelow has seen no diminishment in his own party’s support among voters. He managed this victory by swamping fascist momentum with pension plans and health care proposals, sucking the energy from the AfD’s high-flying rhetoric by taking concrete steps to enact or improve social welfare programs.

across Germany. In Thuringia, however, itwon the most seats of any party for the first time in its history.

The party owes this success largely to Bodo Ramelow, who since 2014 had served as Thuringia’s chief minister with the backing of the Social Democrats and the Green party. Like the AfD’s Höcke, Ramelow has been accused of extremism and investigated by German intelligence—but whereas Höcke has welldocumented connections to neo-Nazis, Ramelow was investigated on the basis of a vague suspicion that he may have been briefly associated with the Communist Party in his youth. As chief minister, Ramelow won a reputation for hardheaded pragmatism, and according to the German weekly Die Zeit, even the local CDU and business representatives declared themselves satisfied with his record in government.

Despite Ramelow’s electoral victory, however, the AfD dominated the media cycle. In fact, The New York Times, the BBC, and CNN all reported the Thuringia election as a resounding success for the AfD without acknowledging the historic performance of Die Linke. In obfuscating the results of the election, media outlets deprived readers both of a legitimate hope of stalling the far right and of the opportunity for studying the tactics that have halted xenophobic extremism in its tracks.

The victory of a far-left politician in East Germany—a region on its way to become the far right’s home base— may have escaped media attention, but the story holds a larger lesson: Even if many Germans are animated by resentment, far more want to send their kids to good schools. Given a choice between empty centrist promises and hate-filled rhetoric, many will opt for the latter. Given a choice between hatred and better health care, they will choose health care. Theodor Adorno, the great philosopher of authoritarianism, argued as much in a 1967 lecture. Adorno advised his listeners not to “try to be as clever as the rightDespite this record, Ramelow will face headwinds, wingers.” Fascists, he argued, are propagandists at largely because his coalition partners—the Greens their core, and ideological conflict always helps their and the Social Democrats—both lost seats in the cause. Those who wish to defeat them should instead October election, thus depriving the coalition of a harness the “penetrating power of reason, confront majority in parliament. (Ramelow attempted to form them with the truly non-ideological truth.” a coalition with the CDU instead but was rebuffed.)

Still, unlike his centrist counterparts in Brandenburg This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Emergence of the Saudi Artificial Intelligence Sector How the Kingdom is Keeping Up With this Fiercely Competitive Field

by Mohamed Abd El Kader Khalil Artificial Intelligence (AI) has transcended the realms of science fiction films, and has become a reality that is spearheading the “fourth industrial revolution�. AI has transformed science and technology and has created new fields and jobs thus changing the global economy. A recent report by the McKenzie Global Institute has stated that in the

coming years, AI will come to shape the features of our world and it will add 13 trillion dollars to the global economy within the next ten years.

Moreover, the PricewaterhouseCoopers Academy stated that artificial intelligence will account for 15.7 trillion dollars in the global economy by the year 2030.

AI has become the basis of the new geopolitical competition; Russian president Vladimir Putin has

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even gone as far as to say that whoever masters AI will become the master of the world. Many reports have indicated that the future economic battles will be high tech battles, as most of the world powers are racing to reach the summit of this growing industry. Recent news of China’s supremacy in AI technology has prompted other countries to move fast, this is perhaps the reason why US President Donald Trump has ordered more resources and investment from federal agencies to increase research and training into AI technology.

Saudi Arabia is no different; back in August 2019, a royal decree was issued creating the Saudi Authority for Data and Artificial Intelligence. This is part of the wider Vision 2030 which aims to make Saudi Arabia a major AI hub by the end of the upcoming decade. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman emphasized this goal of making Riyadh a leader in this field during his address at the G20

Accurate estimates suggest that Saudi Arabia has more than $ 1 trillion in data which is poised to add unprecedented value to Saudi Arabia’s economy. recognizes first-hand the risks AI can pose to the world. He, along with other AI entrepreneurs from 26 countries have recently signed a memo warning the UN against the development of lethal tech weapons, and that was ahead of the Joint International Conference on Artificial Intelligence.

While Germany, Japan, Russia, and South Korea are pioneering nations in artificial intelligence, it is Washington and Beijing who are going head to head to establish global supremacy in the field. That isn’t to say that other countries aren’t looking into AI, as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, India, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, and Taiwan have been developing strategies to kick start their venture into new technologies.

AI, WASHINGTON AND BEIJING

Summit in Osaka, Japan.

AI AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION The famous American entrepreneur, Elon Musk, has recently said that international competition over Artificial Intelligence might pave the way for a third world war. Musk is, of course, one of the world’s most prolific tech and AI moguls and

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Even though the US, UK, and Canada have been the largest AI nations for the past few decades, the rapid rise of China has driven more international investments towards Beijing. Naturally, China has made good use of these investments by developing its core AI assets. In his book, “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order”, Chinese AI expert Kai-Fu Lee said that Beijing’s growth in AI is dependent on the operational knowledge it has on large tech corporations such as Google, Microsoft and its role as the operational manager of Chinese firm Sinovation.

Beijing, along with individual Chinese investors, has been channelling huge sums of money to the development of artificial intelligence. By 2017, Beijing will dominate nearly 48 percent of total AI funding. As it stands, China is surpassing the US in AI tech development and has recently announced long-term plans and goals that would place it as the comfortable leader of AI by the year 2030.

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Fu Lee explains that China’s Collective Innovation and Entrepreneurship campaign back in 2015 helped launch 6600 small companies specialized in AI technology. It is estimated that by the year 2030, China will contribute about $ 7 trillion of global gross product for artificial intelligence. Furthermore, Fu Lee has emphasized that the Chinese population has become particularly tech-savvy, even those who don’t own/can’t use a personal computer can use a smartphone proficiently. Smartphones have virtually become hi-tech mobile wallets to the regular Chinese citizen. Just to put into perspective just how much e-commerce has become a regular part of Chinese life, at the end of the year 735 ,2017 million Chinese residents (roughly 65 percent of its

The Kingdom is planning to use AI in the Hajj and Umra industry; as such it is hoping to increase its yearly pilgrim attendance from 8 million to 30 million by 2030.

population), were able to use their smartphones for payment.

In March 2017, AI was mentioned in a government report in which Beijing listed its plans on transforming younger generations into regular users of AI. Said plan is an ambitious one split into three time periods; by 2020 China aims to grow its AI industry by 150 billion Yuan, 400 billion Yuan by 2025 and 1 trillion Yuan by 2030.

That has made several Western states, most notably the United States, anxious. According to a recent report on US national security, China’s rapid AI development will upset the balance among the world’s economic and military superpowers.

The report also said that China’s capabilities do not just make it a competitor for the US, rather its capabilities now make it possible for it to overtake the US in AI technology.

Robert Work, former US Deputy Secretary of Defense, recently said that the US has two choices, either become the leader of this current AI revolution or become a victim of it. As such, President Donald Trump was quick to sign an executive order promoting artificial intelligence. To do that, federal agencies will facilitate investment into research and development in AI, promote information sharing, build new computer models, set clear technical

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standards to promote workforce development and give priority to technology. This comes at a time when the Defense Department has added 75 million dollars to its yearly budget to further develop its AI capabilities.

Other Western states have taken initiatives as well, the UK has announced a recent deal between private and public companies which would provide 200 million dollars towards AI investment. The British government has also said that it plans to provide funds for academic research and 1000 PhDs in AI.

SAUDI ARABIA AND AI DEVELOPMENT Saudi Arabia has recently shown interest in AI and has even gone as far as to give Sophia the Robot Saudi citizenship, marking the first time a robot has been granted such a privilege, but the country’s ambitions have not stopped there. Riyadh is set to host the upcoming AI International Summit in March 2020, where multiple experts, scientists, companies, and entrepreneurs from around the world will meet to exchange ideas over the industry’s future.

The summit will take place in the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center will be chaired by

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The MiSk Academy, which is part of the Prince Mohamed bin Salman Foundation and has trained thousands of young boys and girls in digital programming and AI. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, who is also the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Saudi Authority for Data and Artificial Intelligence. The Head of the Board of Organizers of the Conference, Dr. Abd Allah Bin Sharaf El Ghamdy, has said that the conference will hold discussions on the new development of AI and how we can utilize such new technologies for the betterment of humankind.

The summit’s agenda is a diverse one filled with workshops, lectures, and showcases displaying the latest inventions and innovations in this growing industry. As such, this summit aims to be the largest of its kind.

The Kingdom, according to academic trends, is seeking to upgrade its information networks which

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will become the basis of its future progressive hitech economy. Thanks to Saudi Arabia’s efforts its economy is developing in a cumulative manner, rapidly moving towards its goal of having a technologically based economy. Accurate estimates suggest that Saudi Arabia has more than $ 1 trillion in data which is poised to add unprecedented value to Saudi Arabia’s economy.

According to new studies, AI has the potential to add 215 billion Riyals to the Saudi economy by 2035. The Kingdom is planning to use AI in the Hajj and Umra industry; as such it is hoping to increase its yearly pilgrim attendance from 8 million to 30 million by 2030. It should also be noted that Saudi Arabia has a good source of human capital that can help its pursuit of a tech-based economy. Seventy percent of its population is under the age of 30, and it is that demographic that is most suited to go into tech-based fields. Thousands of young Saudis have undergone training in digital programming, thus creating a demand for technical work at a faster pace than most other countries in the Middle East and this can be seen in the many job ads asking for employees who are proficient in AI technology.

Young Saudis are more accepting of these new fields as many of them have are well versed in blockchain technology, and many even take part in “hackathons”. This growing familiarity with programming might pave the way for schools to introduce such AI subjects to give younger students a head start in the field.

Saudi Arabia has also started building Neon, a new hi-tech mega-city that will cost around 500 million dollars and is part of the Vision 2030 initiative which aims to make the Saudi

Seventy percent of its population is under the age of 30, and it is that demographic that is most suited to go into tech-based fields.

economy based on industry and information.

As a result, the Saudi government is looking to increase its use of robotics, which is why it has established the National Center for Robotics Technologies and Intelligent Systems in the King Abd El Aziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). Recently, the Saudi Ministry of Education “hired” a robot that serves customers within the Kingdom of the first robot in the Ministry of Education, which serves customers, delivers messages to visitors to the exhibitions and provides activities for the Technical and Vocational Training Corporation. The Health Ministry has also announced the development of a “smart pharmacy” which will be established in King Fahad hospital in Tabuk.

Economists estimate that in the coming years that the economic returns from artificial intelligence projects will account for 12.4 percent of its GDP. To highlight the growing importance of this industry for the Saudi economy, the government has introduced many charities that are training young Saudis in the field. One of such charities is the MiSk Academy, which is part of the Prince Mohamed bin Salman Foundation and has trained thousands of young

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boys and girls in digital programming and AI. The Crown Prince has also recently founded the Prince Mohammed bin Salman College for Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Technologies. In spite of its seemingly sudden founding, its establishment did not happen overnight; as a matter of fact, it happened as a result of a concerted effort from the STC Academy in Riyadh and the Saudi Federation for Cyber Security and Programming (SAFCSP). Abdullah Alswaha, the current Minister of Communications and Information Technology, has said that the Kingdom is focusing on its digital present and its high tech and AI-based future, thus enabling it to become a future leader in technology and innovation.

Finally, the Prince Mohammed bin Salman College for Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Technologies is aiming to fulfill the goals set in Vision 2030, by which new technology will enhance the efficiency and performance of both government and private sectors stimulate entrepreneurship and support young people. Most importantly, the Kingdom aims to utilize AI to provide advanced services for its citizens.

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OK Gen Z, the Boomers Were Listening this Year, Sort of

It Has Been a Year of Skirmishes Between Young and Old

by Jeffrey Fleishman Her voice is weary yet chilling, telling us she is not complicit in a world edging toward destruction. She’s still in her teens, an inheritor of generations leaving her the burdens of global warming, economic inequality and a ravenous social media that thrills her even as it exploits and strips away the tender gifts of her youth.

Zendaya as Rue Bennett in the HBO drama “Euphoria” is a prescription-drug-addicted high schooler wandering through the wreckage of sexting, statutory rape, body shaming, mass shootings and lives playing out on smartphones, where avatars and parallel realities prompt one of her friends to muse: “I don’t think I have an attention span for real life anymore.”

“Euphoria” is a stark dive into Gen Z, those born into a post11/9 planet of rising tides, starving polar bears, TikTok videos, selfies, invasive algorithms and the specter of the YouTube star. They are the latest iteration in an America whose sense of itself is often marked by generational divides between baby boomers, Gen Xers, millennials and teens like Greta Thunberg, a -16year-old Swedish climate activist who admonished Congress and U.N. world leaders for not doing a better job at preserving the planet.

It has been a year of skirmishes between young and old.

From Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jolting C-SPAN

with her progressive politics to the resurfacing (yes, really) of the “Brady Bunch” stars to celebrate the show’s 50th anniversary. We hang in that surreal balance. Rifts between generations are part of the natural order, but these days the differences echo with existential questions over climate change and how artificial intelligence and other technologies will reshape the way we live. Even the sisters in the Disney blockbuster “Frozen 2” must contend with environmental damage wrought by their elders.

Will Miami disappear this century under rising waters?

Will the robots we create subsume us? Will we endure endless superhero reboots? Disappear into our virtual reality headsets? Will Mark Zuckerberg and his ilk mine every sacred piece of our identity? Such questions for younger generations are not rhetorical. Frankenstein is here; the “Black Mirror” is eerily ascendant.

Anxiety over the future is seeping into a cultural landscape altered in recent years by the MeToo and Black Lives Matter movements. The Trump presidency, with its impeachment troubles, anti-immigration fury and multiplying lies, has divided the country, distorting our reality and cheapening the creeds that made us a nation. One can understand why the Gen Z characters in “Euphoria” pedal through suburban neighborhoods numbed and perplexed.

“Even I don’t fully get it,” Zendaya told The Times this year. “But I understand a good percent of it. Rue says in

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Zendaya in «Euphoria» on HBO.

the first episode something like, ‘We just showed up here without a map or compass.’ And it’s true, because we don’t know what the … we’re doing. Nobody actually knows what they’re doing. Imagine growing up in social media and being a child. It’s not easy. It’s confusing. And it’s uncomfortable. It’s a lot of things. It’s created by the very people that call us the zombies or whatever. It’s like, we’re the byproduct of this … , you know?”

The air between generations has been arrowed with condescension and dismissive tweets for a while. But GIFs and memes this year poking fun and outrage at baby boomers tapped into a deeper anxiety. The “OK boomer” social media tag was a jab at a post-World War II generation that millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) and Gen Zers (roughly 2012-1997) regard as entitled, affluent and blind to the consequences of decades of technological advances and environmental degradation even as dystopian films and literature have flourished.

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The young viewed boomers as a cold-blooded and calculating Cersei Lannister in “Game of Thrones.”

Boomers had their own characterizations of Gen Z: smartphone-swooning snowflakes. Millennials were caught in between, and Gen Xers floated in their own orbit.

Suspicion played out across generations like an episode of “Succession,” where the young Roys, stewing in spoiled privilege, maneuver to outwit and unseat their cranky, toxic patriarch.

Much of the criticism against boomers was in satire and jest. Some was more pointed, including Blink182-’s song “Generational Divide” with the lyrics: “All we needed was your lifeline. (Is it better? Is it better now?).” Social media amplified and democratized “OK boomer” in a time when the calling out and muting of enemies in a growing “cancel culture” allows younger generations to peel back the masks and reveal the prevailing sins of those in power. It is mass

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reckoning carried out by TikTok and Twitter.

Such an atmosphere is informing politics, college campuses and the entertainment industry. Director Martin Scorsese unleashed Marvel-fan wrath when he said that superhero movies resembled more an amusement park ride than serious cinema. His comments pointed not only to a generational gap between Scorsese and “Suicide Squad” cosplayers but to how computer graphics and special effects are reimagining movies for audiences who minute by minute live in their screens.

Cinema is rapidly changing, much like it did in the 1970s when independent filmmakers, including a young Scorsese, upended Hollywood with realism. Today, technology has given us cosmic fantasy. It has also splintered how and where we watch films and TV. Entertainment common ground between generations is shrinking as each seeks shows, podcasts and video streams that speak directly to them and less to the wider world. This raises questions about shared narratives and the future of art, expression and identity. The trend will accelerate with the streaming wars between Netflix, Disney+, Apple TV+ and other platforms.

It is a progression changed by, but as old as, time. Baby boomers cut their teeth on vinyl records and “Easy Rider”; Gen Xers had “Friends” and “Reality Bites”; millennials watched “The OC” and “The Social Network”; and Gen Z is only too familiar with news of school shootings appearing on their social media feeds and turning themselves into

Socially conscious Gen Zers may be marching against gun violence and climate change, but boomers and their elders born before 1946, including Bob Dylan and Martin Luther King Jr., protested for civil rights and against the Vietnam War.

avatars and doppelgangers for -15second TikTok videos.

Yet there are things that transcend and bind generations: “Star Wars.” “The Simpsons.” “Game of Thrones.” “The Office.” Even “Mister Rogers,” portrayed by Tom Hanks in the new film “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.”

A restlessness among the young has spread to our politics, but older generations still hold sway. Pete Buttigieg, a -37year-old millennial, is the youngest major candidate among Democrats in a presidential race whose top contenders include Elizabeth Warren, 70, a boomer, and Joe Biden, 77, and Bernie Sanders, 78, both pre-boomers.

The winds are shifting, but it may take another four years before someone born after MTV was launched moves into the White House.

Gender and cultural equations are also beginning to be redrawn along generational lines — although, like politics, not as quickly as many would like. Women made critically acclaimed films this year, including those by

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Billie Eilish performs onstage during the 2019 iHeartRadio Music Festival and Daytime Stage at the Las Vegas Festival Grounds on September 2019 ,21 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

(Getty)

The Trump presidency, with its impeachment troubles, antiimmigration fury and multiplying lies, has divided the country, distorting our reality and cheapening the creeds that made us a nation. with pivotal roles in mainstream films going to Cuban actress Ana de Armas in “Knives Out” and Colombian actress Natalia Reyes Gaitán in “Terminator: Dark Fate.”

One of the most potent signs of youth taking over is Billie Eilish, the -17year-old subversive who has jolted pop music with her debut electro-pulse album, “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” The work makes Eilish, who at times looks like an end-of-days denizen, the youngest artist to be simultaneously nominated in the major Grammy categories of song, record, album and best new artist.

thirtysomething directors Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”) and Lulu Wang (“The Farewell”). But no female directors were nominated for the Golden Globes. The youngest of the five males nominated was Todd Phillips, 48, and the oldest was Scorsese, 77.

There has been incremental progress along racial lines.

Shows like “Insecure,” “Atlanta” and “black-ish” explore the lives of young African Americans. A rising generation of black playwrights, including Jeremy O. Harris and Jackie Sibblies Drury, are laying bare the caustic legacy of prejudice and slavery in new and riveting language.

“Fresh Off the Boat,” now heading into its final season, paved the way not only for last year’s “Crazy Rich Asians” but the 2019 films “Always Be My Maybe” and “The Farewell,” which showed fresh ways of depicting the experiences of young Asian Americans.

And while Latino representation in pop culture is still abysmal, especially with “Jane the Virgin” ending its five-season run this year, a new generation is emerging,

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Of course, each generation thinks it discovered what has already been charted by the one preceding it. “Bugs Bunny” is as sly as anything on “South Park.” Socially conscious Gen Zers may be marching against gun violence and climate change, but boomers and their elders born before 1946, including Bob Dylan and Martin Luther King Jr., protested for civil rights and against the Vietnam War. A fine line runs between self-righteousness and forgetting.

Or worse, not being aware of what those younger and older than us have been through.

“The idea that youth culture is culture created by youth is a myth. Youth culture is manufactured by people who are no longer young,” Louis Menand recently wrote in the New Yorker. “When you are actually a young person, you can only consume what’s out there. It often becomes ‘your culture,’ but not because you made it. If you were born during the baby boom, you can call yourself a ’60s person.

You can even be a ’60s person. Just don’t pretend that any of it was your idea.”

Still, each generation has its own style and aesthetic to make sense of its world, or, in the case of the rise of virtual reality, other worlds tempting us in cyberspace. As decades go by, what Gen Z innovations will be praised and admonished long after baby boomers — with their trippy playlists and fading idealism — have passed into history?

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1778- December- 13/12/2019

Lionel Messi: A Record Breaking Career www.majalla.com

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Who Needs Aspirin?

Age, Family History, and Other Risk Factors Determine if Daily Aspirin Can Help Prevent a Heart Attack or Stroke 42

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Candidates for aspirin therapy include people who›ve had a coronary artery bypass to reroute blood flow around blockages in the heart; people who›ve had a stent implanted to keep an artery open; and those with peripheral artery disease aspirin for adults at low risk of cardiovascular disease.

But because aspirin is so readily available, and because people may not be up on the latest research, there›s a large group of people who may still be taking it, unnecessarily.

Harvard researchers reported in the July 23, 2019, issue of Annals of Internal Medicine that nearly 24% of adults ages 40 years or older without cardiovascular disease who don›t need daily aspirin still take it for the prevention of heart disease. And almost half of adults 70 and older with no history of heart disease or stroke reported taking aspirin daily.

by Harvard Men›s Health Watch For many of us, aspirin was the go-to medicine of our youth. Everything from headaches, colds, and general aches and pains were treated with two aspirin and a glass of water.

For decades, aspirin was widely believed to be a safe way to protect healthy adults from heart attacks and strokes. But over the past couple years, new research has questioned this premise and many doctors have already stopped prescribing

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«Aspirin therapy is not for everyone, yet many people take it without their doctor›s knowledge,» says Dr. Randall Zusman, director of the Division of Hypertension at Harvard-affiliated Massachusetts General Hospital. «This can expose them to potentially dangerous side effects and can cause more harm than good.»

THE HEART OF THE MATTER Aspirin helps prevent the formation of blood clots in arteries that can restrict blood flow and lead to a heart attack or stroke. Aspirin may be prescribed by itself or in combination with a prescription anti-clotting medication like clopidogrel (Plavix).

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The downside is that aspirin increases the risk of internal bleeding. This can range from a minor issue like noticeable bruising to more severe problems, such as gastrointestinal bleeding caused by irritation of the stomach lining, and rarely, bleeding in the brain. The recommended advice is that low-dose daily aspirin -- often 81 milligrams (mg) per day -- can protect people with heart disease who have had a heart attack or stroke from having another one.

WHO BENEFITS MOST? Other candidates for aspirin therapy include people who›ve had a coronary artery bypass to reroute blood flow around blockages in the heart; people who›ve had a stent implanted to keep an artery open; and those with peripheral artery disease (significant plaque buildup in the leg arter.)ies But what about everyone else? For instance, can daily aspirin prevent a first-time heart attack or stroke if you are at high risk for heart disease?

Probably not. A study in the Aug. 26, 2018, issue of The Lancet included more than 12,500 people, all of whom had several risk factors for heart disease, such as high cholesterol, high blood

Because aspirin is so readily available, and because people may not be up on the latest research, there›s a large group of people who may still be taking it, unnecessarily.

pressure, or smoking. They took either a daily 100-mg aspirin or a placebo. Over five years, the aspirin users did not have a lower risk of heart attacks or strokes compared with the placebo group. One exception is people with diabetes, a disease that raises the risk of heart disease. Research has found that low dose aspirin daily may protect these people from first-time heart attacks and strokes.

RISK VERSUS REWARD The biggest issue with aspirin therapy is identifying which otherwise healthy people might take low dose daily aspirin because they could benefit from a lower chance of heart attack or stroke with minimal risk. This is where it gets tricky.

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New guidelines from the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology advise against daily aspirin for prevention in otherwise healthy people without existing heart disease or stroke, in particular those older than 70. The guidelines point out that existing evidence suggests the risks for dangerous bleeding outweigh any potential heart benefits.

high cholesterol, or plaque buildup in their arteries detected from a coronary calcium scan,» he says. «Also, people over 70 may still benefit from aspirin therapy, but it depends on their risk of bleeding versus their cardiac risk profile.»

However, this does not mean that healthy people may never benefit from aspirin therapy, says Dr. Zusman.

A better approach for these people is to focus more on following a heart-healthy diet, exercising, and managing weight, adds Dr. Zusman.

«For a majority of people, these can maximize the preventive benefits against a heart attack or stroke better than taking a daily aspirin.»

«Some doctors might advise aspirin for people who have multiple risk factors that put them at especially high risk of heart attack or stroke, such as a strong family history of heart disease and

The bottom line is that the decision to take lowdose aspirin is complicated and depends on the person. «Talk with your doctor, and never take a daily aspirin on your own,» says Dr. Zusman.

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Lionel Messi: A Record Breaking Career Majalla - London Lionel Messi was born to Jorge Messi and Celia Cuccittini in Rosario, Argentina. His father was a factory steel worker and his mother was employed as a part-time cleaner.

Messi started playing football as a boy and in 1995 joined the youth team of Newell’s Old Boys (a Rosario-based top-division football club). Messi’s phenomenal skills garnered the attention of prestigious clubs on both sides of the Atlantic. However, recognizably smaller than most of the kids in his age group, at the age of 11 Messi was diagnosed with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). This was a condition that stunted growth and required expensive medical treatment, including the use of the drug Human growth hormone. Despite being immensely talented, he was not offered help by the local clubs, who were not willing to pay for his treatment. It was at this juncture that Carles Rexach, the sporting director of FC Barcelona, came to his aid. At the age of 13, Messi was offered the chance to train at soccer powerhouse FC Barcelona›s youth academy, La Masia, and have his medical bills covered by the team, Messi›s family picked up and moved across the Atlantic to make a new home in Spain.

Messi was enrolled at the Barcelona’s youth academy. He scored 21 goals in 14 games for the junior team, and he quickly graduated through the higher-level teams until at age 16 he was given his informal debut with FC Barcelona in a friendly match.

Messi progressed through the ranks and was

given his first appearance in the 05/2004 season becoming the youngest player to score a league goal. In 2006, Messi was part of the double winning team which won both La Liga (Spanish League) and Champions League. By next season, (07-2006) aged just 20, Messi was the first choice striker and an essential part of the Barcelona team – scoring 14 goals in 26 league games.

Messi’s play continued to rapidly improve over the years, and by 2008 he was one of the most dominant players in the world, finishing second to Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo in the voting for the 2008 FIFA World Player of the Year. In the 10-2009 season, Messi scored 47 goals in all competitions, equalling Ronaldo’s record total for Barcelona.

As the seasons have progressed, Messi kept improving and breaking his own records. In the calendar year of 2012, he broke the alltime world record for most goals scored in a calendar year. His final total of goals in 2012 was 91 – beating the previous record of 85 by German Gerd Muller, and Pele’s milestone of 75 in 1958.

He announced his retirement from international football following Argentina’s loss to Chile in the final of Copa América Centenario on 26 June 2016. Following his retirement, a campaign began to urge Messi to change his decision. On 12 August 2016, it was announced that Messi has reversed his decision to retire and will be part of Argentina›s 2018 World Cup campaign. In the 2018 Football World Cup Messi scored a goal in the Argentina›s final group match

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against Nigeria and helped his team to a 1-2 victory. In the process, he became the first player to score in the World Cup in his teens, twenties, and his thirties and also became the third Argentine after Diego Maradona and Gabriel Batistuta to score in three different World Cups.

He scored his 600th career goal in club competition during Barcelona›s 0-3 win against Liverpool in the Champions League in May 2019, just says afte Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 600th career club goal. However, Messi reached the -600goal mark in 683 games while it took Ronaldo 799 games. In December 2019, he won the Ballon d’Or award for a record sixth time, having been tied with Ronaldo on five.

On June 2017 ,30, Messi married Antonella Roccuzzo, his longtime girlfriend and the cousin of his best friend and fellow soccer player Lucas Scaglia. Messi and Roccuzzo have two sons together: Thiago, born in November 2012 , and Mateo, born in September 2015. Although famously private off the field, Messi has quietly helped others in need. In 2007, he formed the Leo Messi Foundation to provide opportunities for disadvantaged youths. In early 2010, UNICEF named him a goodwill ambassador, with a focus on fighting for children›s rights across the globe.

As of 2019, Messi is the world›s highest-paid athlete in the world accounting for salary plus bonuses and endorsements, according to Forbes, bypassing fellow soccer great Ronaldo and basketball star LeBron James.

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ook Reviews

‘This Is Happiness’ and Irish Nostalgia In ‘This Is Happiness,’ Humanity is found in Irish village Lost in Past

by Becky Kover The Ireland that Niall Williams writes about in this novel is gone — or would be if he hadn’t cradled it so tenderly in the clover of his prose.

Escaping into the pages of “This Is Happiness” feels as much like time travel as enlightenment.

Halfway through, I realized that if I didn’t stop underlining passages, the whole book would be underlined.

Although it takes place in the late 1950s, the story feels bathed in sepia tones, and that’s not just the candlelight of Williams’ nostalgia. Electricity has not yet come to the rainy parish of Faha in County Clare, where “This Is Happiness” is set. Proudly uninterested in the modern conveniences that other towns enjoy, these people work, instead, by the glow of lamps and moon, following the rhythms of life established centuries ago.

But that — and so much else — is about to

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Although it takes place in the late 1950s, the story feels bathed in sepia tones, and that’s not just the candlelight of Williams’ nostalgia.

“This in miniature was the world,” he writes, but that demands a kind of attention and patience that is increasingly scarce. If you are in a hurry, hurry along to another book. Williams is engaged in the careful labor of teaching us to hear the subtler melodies drowned out by the din of modern life.

Waterville is a village on the Iveragh Peninsula in County Kerry, Ireland. (Getty)

change when -17year-old Noe Crowe arrives from Dublin. He has been sent to Faha to stay with his grandparents in their dark, thatched house. Haunted by the slow death of his mother, Noe has recently withdrawn from seminary, “not exactly in disgrace,” he says, but terrified he might never “discover what it meant to live a fully human life.” His experience in Faha will teach him — and us — much about that.

The irony here is that Faha is of no consequence whatsoever. It tempts a young man with none of the adventure of Dublin nor the sophistication of London. “If you could find it, you’d be on your way somewhere else,” Noe says. “Its destiny was to be a place passed over, and gently, wholly forgotten.”

But at just the right point in his life, when his spirit is raw for affection, this little village offers Noe the sanctuary he needs to emerge gently from the chrysalis of his own fear and timidity.

If Faha isn’t for everybody, then neither, frankly, is Williams’ novel, delivered in the pensive voice of a man in his 70s recalling his youth.

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The dominant figure in Noe’s memory of that longago period is an older man named Christy. He arrives around the same time and ends up bunking with Noe in the attic room in his grandparents’ house. Nominally, he has come to Faha to work on the electrification of the village, but actually he has returned to make amends to a woman he wronged 50 years ago.

To young Noe, Christy’s quest is irresistibly romantic, although he has only a theoretician’s understanding of what romance might actually mean, especially to a man and woman separated for a half-century.

The sweetness of this novel would curdle if it weren’t preserved by a tincture of tragedy that runs through so many of these lives. For all Noe’s wide-eyed goofiness, he is a young man scarred early by grief, which might account for his precocious sympathy, his ability to resonate with the quiet sorrow in others.

Years later, looking back on Christy, he notes that the man “walked this line between the comic and poignant, between the certainly doomed and the hopelessly hopeful.” Surely, he is describing his own precarious position, too.

Williams’ most affecting skill is his ability to narrate this novel in two registers simultaneously, capturing Noe’s naivete as a teenager and his wisdom as an old man.

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