Libya Struggles with Self-Made Oil Crisis by المجلة

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Editorial A Weekly Political News Magazine

The world energy crisis is escalating as Moscow has started to use energy exports as a cudgel following the response by the United States and allies over Russia›s invasion of Ukraine. The World Bank estimated in its MENA growth forecast that Arab oil exporter countries “are expected to grow by %5.2 in 2022” on the back of oil-price windfalls”. However, Libya, which is one of the best alternative resources for oil and Natural gas, is still far from participating in filling the gap in the European energy markets due to domestic political disputes and security turbulences. Dalia Ziada writes this week about the missed opportunities of economic growth and security relief that are available due to Russian redeployment of its Middle East mercenaries. Internal rifts among its political elite who have started to use Libyan oil and gas industry as a weapon against each other. In an in-depth analysis, Samy Amara writes about the Russia media failure in front of the Western coverage which resulted in “divergence” among Kremlin’s close circles. He argues that Russian channels and media websites “succeeded in trapping the youth of Russia and other former Soviet countries and directing their orientation at the expense of Russian culture with all its vocabulary and spectrums.” He concludes that the outlets seem to be heading towards replacing the vocabulary of this media map with other terms that might align with the changes taking place in the contemporary history of Russia. Read these articles and more on our website eng. majalla.com. As always, we welcome and value our readers’ feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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Issue 1902- April- 29/04/2022

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India University Games Cultural dancers perform during the opening ceremony of “Khelo India University Games 2021,” at the Kanteerava Indoor Stadium in Bangalore on April 24, 2022. / AFP

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Britain Art Culture Auction Members of staff look at a painting made in 2018 by British artist Damien Hirst, called “Happy Life Blossom” which is estimated between $2,000,000 and 3,000,000, during a press-view at Sotheby’s auction house on April 25, 2022 in London, England. / AFP

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LEBANON

EGYPT Egypt’s total deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) decreased to 4.9 percent during the first nine months of 2021/2022 fiscal year (from July 2021 to March 2022), which witnessed a significant improvement compared to the same period during the last fiscal year. Tax revenue also increased by 12.8 percent, in addition to maintaining the budget's achievement of a primary surplus, according to Minister of Finance Mohamed Maait. “These are the indicators that have been achieved despite the significant increase in allocations for all expenditure sections to provide all the necessary needs for the sectors of the Egyptian state during the last period,” Maait stated.

France and Saudi Arabia announced a joint development fund for crisis-hit Lebanon, Tuesday, pledging an initial $30 million to support food security and the country's crippled health sector, a French embassy statement said, and Reuters reports. The funds will be routed to humanitarian projects to provide emergency aid, including food, to the most vulnerable populations in Lebanon, improve access to primary healthcare and to support the main public hospital in the impoverished northern city of Tripoli, the statement said. Lebanon is in the midst of its deepest crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. A 2019 financial meltdown has led the currency to crash, dragging more than half of the population into poverty and leading many to struggle to afford basics, such as food and medicine.

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Turkish Pre travel to Sa announced bridge-buil Talks with S visit will foc cooperatio Erdogan’s o on regional Earlier this 26 Saudis s killing of jo in October

UDI ARABIA

esident Recep Tayyip Erdogan will audi Arabia on Thursday, his office d, on the latest leg of Ankara’s lding efforts with regional rivals. Saudi officials during the two-day cus on ways of increasing on, according to a statement from office. The sides will exchange views l and international issues. month, Turkey dropped the trial of suspected of involvement in the ournalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul 2018.

UAE The world's first minister for artificial intelligence says the United Arab Emirates isn't only looking for economic benefits as it seeks to become a leading nation in the sector. The UAE's minister of state for AI, Omar bin Sultan al-Olama, said "quality of life" considerations were key, and also stressed the importance of a "responsible" rollout -- with impacts potentially reverberating for decades.

KUWAIT People traveling to Kuwait will no longer have to take a PCR test or show proof of vaccination before entering the country, state news agency KUNA reported. Under the easing of the country’s COVID-19 restrictions, face masks are also no longer mandatory, except for those showing symptoms, Deputy Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Fares said in a statement. The PM said all people – vaccinated, or not – would be given access to all public places, while PCR tests were no longer required at workplaces and educational establishments.

IRAN Iran called on Monday for a new meeting "as soon as possible" in the talks that have been held in Vienna aimed at restoring its frayed 2015 nuclear deal with major powers. Tehran has been engaged in negotiations with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly and the United States indirectly to revive the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). "It is appropriate that a face-to-face meeting is held as soon as possible," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told his weekly press conference. "It is not yet decided where and when to have this meeting and at what level it should be held, but it is on the agenda."

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A WEEK ACROS CANADA.

U.S. The United States accused Russia on Thursday of planning to short-circuit Ukrainian democracy by forcing the government from power and dismantling local authorities. “We have information that Russia’s planning for its further invasion of Ukraine includes a forced capitulation of Ukraine’s democratically elected government, including dissolving all local municipal governments in Ukraine,” U.S. Ambassador Michael Carpenter said in an address to the Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperating in Europe (OSCE).

Canada’s Defense Minister Anita Anand said during a visit to Washington on Thursday that Canadian troops were training Ukrainian troops to use howitzer artillery. The United States has been training a small number of Ukrainian forces on howitzers and some other systems outside of Ukraine. Anand, speaking alongside U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, did not say where the Canadian training was taking place.

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ETHIOPIA.

Tigrayan forces are fully withdraw from Ethiopia's Afar region, a spokesperson for the Tigrayan People's Liberation Forces (TPLF) CNN on Monday, saying the pullo should allow humanitarian aid to reach the area. The conflict in northern Ethiopia broke out in Tigray between the T and the forces of Prime Minister A Ahmed's central government in November 2020, and spilled over neighbouring regions. The TPFL expanded into Afar last year.

SS THE WORLD UKRAINE.

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told out o

TPLF Abiy into

NATO is ready to maintain its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia for years, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday. This includes help for Kyiv to shift from Soviet-era weapons to modern Western arms and systems. Stoltenberg spoke after the Kremlin warned that Western arms supplies to Ukraine, including heavy weapons, posed a threat to the security of the European continent "and provoke instability." "We need to be prepared for the long term," Stoltenberg told a youth summit in Brussels, according to Reuters. "There is absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years."

CHINA.

INDIA.

India has bought more than twice as much crude oil from Russia in the two months since its invasion of Ukraine as it did in the whole of 2021, according to Reuters calculations, as Indian refiners snapped up discounted oil that others have shunned.

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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Wednesday praised cooperation with the country's largest trading partner China, saying Tehran wanted to "expand its long-term strategic relations" at a meeting with Beijing's defence minister. Raisi stressed that "regional and global developments show more than ever the value of Iran-China strategic cooperation". Iran has been engaged for a year in negotiations with France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China directly, and the United States indirectly, to revive a troubled 2015 nuclear deal. The accord gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme to guarantee that Tehran could not develop a nuclear weapon, something it has always denied wanting to do.

over story

Libya Struggles with Self-Made Oil Crisis

Wasted Economic Chance Despite Window for Security Relief

By Dalia Ziada

In mid-April, the MENA growth forecast of the World Bank anticipated that the economies of Arab oil exporter countries “are expected to grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016, on the back of oil-price windfalls.” That is despite the uncertainty resulting from the ongoing war in Eastern Europe and its influence on global supply chains of food and energy, as well as the lingering economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, towards the end of April, the crude oil prices ex-

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This file photo taken on September 2020 ,24, shows the Brega oil port in Masra Brega, some 270Km west of Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi. (Photo by AFP)

ceeded US$100 per barrel, with expectations to reach US$200 per barrel in the coming weeks as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. “The disasters of some people are opportunities for other people;” a commonly used Arabic proverb says. While the Arab Gulf countries are making the best use of this rare situation to magnify their national wealth and expand their regional and international political influence, the north African oil-rich countries, such as Libya and Algeria, are losing on the ripe opportunity due to unending internal political disputes and security turbulences.

As grieve as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is, this war offers many ripe opportunities that Libya should seize to achieve security, stability, and even economic prosperity, after ten years of political turmoil and civil wars.

In theory, Libya should be living its best time in a decade. As grave as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is, this war offers many ripe opportunities that Libya should seize to achieve security, stability, and even economic prosperity, after ten years of political turmoil and civil wars. However, in practice, the renewed conflicts between the political elite, in eastern and western territories, under two parallel interim governments, are hindering Libya’s potential to seize the momentum, and are further feeding the arms and pockets of foreign and home-grown militia and terrorist groups.

Vladimir Putin, realized that his so-called “military operation” in Ukraine is going to take longer than initially planned, he publicly announced that he will make use of Russia’s affiliated mercenaries in MENA, whom he deceitfully titled as “volunteers.” Per Putin’s instructions, the Wagner Group started immediately to withdraw its affiliated Syrian and African mercenaries from Libya to redeploy alongside the Russian forces invading Ukraine.

From a security perspective, Libya is given a window of security relief that should prompt the political solution process, especially in regards to the efforts to dissolve militias and unify the divided eastern and western military forces. The foreign actors with the greatest influence on the political and security scenes of Libya – namely; Russia, Turkey, and France – are busy trying to control the consequences of the war in Eastern Europe and, thus, less invested in the tit-for-tat game that they have been playing for years inside Libya. The past three years, in particular, marked heated conflicts between the three foreign powers; that ranged from diplomatic disputes and media exchange of accusations, up to the mobilization of troops and mercenaries on the Libyan soil and sea. In March, when the Russian President,

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The Wagner Group, a private paramilitary corporate that is serving the Russian regime, has been operating in eastern Libya since 2017 in support of Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) that he commands, against the UN-recognized government working from Tripoli, the Government of National Unity (GNU) which is backed by Turkey. Wagner Group’s operations in Libya were mainly focused on recruiting and commanding thousands of Syrian and African mercenaries. From an economic perspective, Libya is, allegedly, the north African oil exporter with the highest potential to achieve the economic growth, which the World Bank forecasted. Europe looks for Libya as one of the best alternative resources for oil and Natural Gas, in light of the uncertainty resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. That is due to the high volumes of proven reserves of both petro-

over story

leum products and the geographic proximity to the southern shores of Europe that Libya enjoys. Libya is the country that possesses the highest volume of proven oil reserves, in the entire continent of Africa, and the second highest volume in the Mediterranean, after Algeria. For decades, Libya has been successfully feeding Europe with Natural Gas via the Green Stream offshore pipeline (length: 540 km) extending from Mellitah Port in Libya to the shores of Sicily in Italy. Plus,

Libya is the country that possesses the highest volume of proven oil reserves, in the entire continent of Africa, and is already the fourth top exporter of Natural Gas to Europe and the 21st world producer of Natural Gas.

Libya enjoys a unique strategic position in the southern of the Mediterranean, through which it can easily ship cargos of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) to Europe. Libya is already the fourth top exporter of Natural Gas to Europe and the 21st world producer of Natural Gas. These rankings should have dramatically improved after the eruption of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the majority of the European countries are determined to boycott Russia’s natural gas. Sadly, though, the extreme divisions among the political elite in the Libyan eastern and western territories are putting this rare opportunity to waste. Once again, the conflicting political elite started to use the energy industry as a political weapon against each other. Although this is not the first time for Libyan oil and gas facilities to halt production under political and security pressures, the existence of two interim governments, at the moment, and the international community’s focus on Ukraine (away from Libya) is further complicating the issue. Following the failure of holding public elections in December 2021, the Parliament Speaker, Aguila Saleh, in Tobruk planned

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This file photo taken on January 19, 2022, shows the Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) headquarters in the capital Tripoli. (Photo by Mahmud Turkia / AFP)

Protesters gather in front of Libya’s National Oil Company in February over halt in production Hazem Turkia/Anadolu Agency/Getty

with LNA’s Haftar, in Benghazi, and the former Minister of Interior, Fathi Bashagha, in Misrata to force GNU’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh out of power, making it impossible for elections to be held any time soon. Through keeping the country in a state of infinite division, the eastern squad can ensure keeping their powerful positions for as long as they can. So, they used the legislative power of the parliament to install a parallel government under the leadership of Bashagha. However, Dbeibeh refused to step down

Maintaining the flow of oil to the international market is necessary at this time to “take advantage of the current price boom, all with the aim of promoting the country and repairing what has been destroyed by the wars.” unless his term ends in June or an election is held. In response, the squad used the legislative power once again to suffocate Dbeibeh by declining to approve or release the annual budget of the GNU. One of the sectors that has been badly suffering under the confrontation between the two parallel governments, is the energy sector. Around mid-April, the National Oil Corporation of Libya (NOC) has been halting the operations of major oil fields (Abuatufol, AlIntisar, Anakhla, and Zueitina) and warned of “the start of a painful wave of closures at the time of the oil and gas price boom.” The NOC’s official statement justifying the closures noted that the fields fell under the status of force majeure as it was impossible

Libya’s Fathi Bashagha, who was appointed prime minister by the eastern-based parliament this month, speaks during an interview with Reuters in Tunis, Tunisia March 30, 2022. Picture taken March 30, 2022. REUTERS/Jihed Abidellaoui/File Photo

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to continue operations while protesters are sitting in and clashing with arms at the production sites. Later, it was found that these protests were organized by militia affiliated to Haftar, with the purpose to prevent GNU’s Dbeibeh from using the oil revenues to finance his government, after the parliament refused to approve government budget. One week before the forced closure of oil fields, the NOC signed an agreement with Dbeibeh to transfer US$8

This is not the first time for Libyan oil and gas facilities to halt production under political and security pressures, but the existence of two interim governments, and world focus on Ukraine is further complicating the issue.

billion of oil revenues to the GNU. As soon as this agreement was announced, the Bashagha government publicly accused Dbeibeh of “wasting public money” for personal benefit. In fact, the NOC has been screaming in pain long before the current collision between Dbeibeh and Bashagha governments started. Since January, militias have been controlling oil export terminals and blocking large pipelines. In March, the NOC reported that due to these activities, the production rate lowered from 1.2 billion to 97,500 barrels a day, causing a waste of approximately $3 billion dollars in revenue. Let alone the fact that the NOC has been working under unbearable security conditions and without a budget. Due to the recent closures of central oil fields, the volume of production has retreated to only 500 thousand barrels per day, bleeding tens of billions of dollars from prospected revenues. In an official statement, the NOC Chairman stressed “the importance of neutralizing the oil sector and avoiding the political conflicts in the country, and warned against being dragged behind calls that do not serve the interests of the nation and the citizens.” He, then, clarified that maintaining the flow of

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Waves of mass displacement began with the 2011 uprising against Gaddafi (Hélène Caux/UNHCR)

A Libyan citizen soldiers sit on an armed vehicle flying their national flag in the coastal city of Benghazi (AFP Photo)

on resolving disputes rather than holding services hostage. “The continued oil shutdown is depriving Libyans of substantial revenue, contributing to increasing prices, and could lead to electricity blackouts, water supply problems, and fuel shortages. The damage During her participation in Cairo Meet- the shutdown is causing to oil infrastructure ings of the Constitutional Base Commit- will cost Libya additional millions, risks an tee, on April 13-18, Stephanie Williams, environmental disaster, and could impact the the Special Adviser to the United Nations country’s ability to utilize this infrastructure Secretary-General on Libya, warned against in the future to reach its full production po“weaponizing the oil production” for politi- tential.” The statement also warned that the cal purposes. “We agreed that oil revenues, NOC is protected by multiple UN Security which serve as a lifeline for the Libyan peo- Council resolutions. ple, must be managed in an entirely transparent and accountable fashion and be equi- Despite domestic and international calls to tably distributed among all Libyans. I also end the current blockade of the oil producemphasized the need to maintain absolute tion, which is the most important pillar of the calm on the ground in light of the increasing Libyan economy, the hope is minimal that political polarization in the country;” Wil- this self-made oil crisis may be solved soon. Even after this current crisis over oil producliams tweeted. tion is resolved, other future crisis in other On April 27th, the Embassy of the United critical sectors will be created as long as the States in Libya issued a long press release country remains hostage to its political elite. expressing concerns with oil shutdown and its expected effect on other economic sec- * Dalia Ziada is an Egyptian author and Directors, leading to more citizens’ suffering. The tor of the Liberal Democracy Institute. Her covers military affairs, political Islamism, statement called upon all the political con- work and geopolitics in the Middle East and North flicting parties to act responsibly by focusing Africa. Tweets at @daliaziada. oil to the international market is necessary at this time to “take advantage of the current price boom, all with the aim of promoting the country and repairing what has been destroyed by the wars.”

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olitics

What’s Behind Divergence Among ‘Kremlin Buddies’? Coverage of Russian Media Wanes against a Fiery Interest from USA, Europe

By Samy Amara – Moscow The title might appear “blatant” as per the standards and criteria of the “Russian military operation.” This has been the official name for the military confrontations and battles taking place on Ukrainian soil and the neighboring territories of the «Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk,» recognized by Moscow only. However, the controversy that raged between the comrades among the official figures speaking on behalf of the Kremlin and between those affiliated in one way or another with the Kremlin and the

decision-making circles could suggest imminent changes in Russian media. The outlets seem to be heading towards replacing the vocabulary of this media map with other terms that might align with the changes taking place in the contemporary history of Russia. The past few days have witnessed a certain degree of indirect «criticism» and «muffled anger» towards the slowness or dragging of military operations on the Ukrainian front. Russian President Vladimir Putin implied this during his statements on the sidelines of his visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome to launch missiles and spaceships in the Far

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A live broadcast of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual phone-in is seen at the TASS news agency in Moscow on June 2021 ,30. GAVRIIL GRIGOROVTASS VIA GETTY IMAGE

East. He said then that the “war always has its own logic, which often requires defining the features of military plans.” Putin was more frank when he implicitly referred to his estimates of some steps in terms of developments in combat operations, without delving into details. This stirred quite a debate on talk shows that have always opted for «screaming» as a means of persuasion. If anything, such a method is an “expression” of the inability to find compelling responses or comments in support of one’s views. The past few weeks revealed that the “special military operation” in Ukraine was, and still is, in dire need of a media tactic and strategy different from the ones adopted in Syria or Crimea. We hasten to say that this is in no way an expression of appreciation of any steps or decisions related to the combat aspect of this military operation. Rather, the aim is to search for the reasons behind the decline of soft power and what many at home and abroad considered a weakness in the face of the massive media mobilization on the part of the United States and Western countries. After all, they continue to be the main and sometimes the only source of information about developments and events in Ukraine and neighboring regions of Eastern Europe. Observers note that the central figures who control, in terms of supervision and implementation, all official or semi-official media agencies for the most part are the same ones that the Russian authorities have always entrusted with carrying out these same tasks for the past nearly twenty years - since the beginning of this century. Perhaps the apparent shortcomings in confronting the Western media on the part of the targeted Russian channels and radio stations could be the logical result of such administrative patterns and the tactics of calling for prohibition and even for the imposition of censorship and inciting the executive authority against its opponents. This takes place through the reward and punishment mechanisms such outlets possess against all those who oppose their views or policies. Some say that “these” did not bother to search for the appropriate means to confront the rich content of the international websites and social media in terms of producing news, tackling rumors and providing content that addresses the emotions of young people and win them over through materials and topics that these young people look for in the West.

PREOCCUPIED WITH LOCAL ISSUES It is worth noting that the local media have focused their topics on addressing domestic matters, without breaking a sweat on the international issues. Some say that Moscow has worked on establishing special platforms tasked with addressing the outside such as Russia Today and Sputnik. The reality, however, is that such “platforms” quickly got entangled in the molds of the past, as did the media produced by the previous Soviet agencies with their propaganda and incitement. This had rendered them the targets

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The outlets seem to be heading towards replacing the vocabulary of this media map with other terms that might align with the changes taking place in the contemporary history of Russia. of prohibitions and bans from Western media. Amidst such problems, the legitimate issues that Putin always raised within the framework of the visions and orientations he announced, faded away. Take for example of his speech at the European Security Conference in Munich in February 2007 and the subsequent reports in which he spoke of his rejection of the prevailing polarity and his approval for the justice in building a multipolar world. He also spoke of the need to retain Russia’s rightful place on the map of international politics. Then came the Ukrainian crisis, whose real history does not date back to February 2014, the date of the coup that overthrew former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. It neither dates back to 2004, the outbreak of the Orange Revolution in Kyiv and the imposition of Viktor Yushchenko as president after a third round of presidential elections under Western auspices. Our estimates show that the crisis goes back to December 8, 1991, the date of the signing of the Belovezhskaya Pushcha agreements, which were an “official” declaration of the collapse of the Soviet Union. These agreements included “humiliating” Russian concessions and neglected the historical rights of the Russian state, as per the demands of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk. Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin wanted these concessions to boost his stance again his rival Mikhail Gorbachev. These concessions also included the recognition of many unconstitutional or legal rights for Ukraine, including the Crimea, of which everyone by now knows its history and the legitimacy of its subordination to the Russian Empire and then to Federal Russia, before the declaration of the Soviet Union in 1922. Russian media has also not paid the necessary attention to the need of drawing the world’s attention to the violations of legitimate rights, which later propelled the extremist nationalist forces to recover much of their past legacy, including the emergence of neo-Nazis under Western auspices in the first term years of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko. Observers recall all the battles and military confrontations that erupted in the wake of the unilateral declaration of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces of their secession from Ukraine after the coup against Ukrainian

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President Viktor Yanukovych. The Ukrainian government forces, backed by factions such as the Azov Battalion and the Right Sector representing the neo-Nazis, sought to recover large parts of nearly half the area of the two provinces whose independence was recognized by Moscow on February 23, after nearly eight years. Some people inside and outside Moscow and almost the entire world have steered away from the problems raging in these regions, and the abuses that were being committed in them that are closer to crimes, according to estimates provided by Russian sources, despite the “Minsk Agreements.” These agreements were reached in 2015 under the auspices of the Normandy Group with the participation of Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former French President Francois Hollande, Putin and former Ukrainian President Peter Poroshenko. Despite Ukraine›s recognition of these agreements, of which the current Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced his approval, its terms remained far from implementation. Moscow has long objected to such a stance and demanded its adherence to the agreements, after it succeeded in legalizing their legitimacy through a decision by the UN Security Council.

The past few weeks revealed that the “special military operation” in Ukraine was, and still is, in dire need of a media tactic and strategy different from the ones adopted in Syria or Crimea.

These are all preliminaries that did not reach the international community at the time, with all their details and subtleties. The US, meanwhile, was working on aggravating the tragedy through its project that was revealed in the early nineties of the last century. The US then announced its ambitions and orientations about a NATO expansion in the east, whose features were determined in 1997. That year marked the date of the first wave of these five expansion waves. It had “tactically” waived its acceptance of Ukraine and Georgia’s request to join NATO as per the will of Russian President Putin in 2008. Nonetheless, it resumed work to intensify its activity in the same direction. This was at the forefront of the reasons for Putin’s security demands for his country in November last year. Many people today are not aware of this at all levels. They need to be reminded, however, as a prelude to providing the appropriate atmosphere for a ceasefire and the transition to “serious” discussions to secure all the necessary guarantees for the main parties to the crisis, without the pressures of external parties, who in fact have become influential parties and effective to the maximum.

MIKHALKOV ATTEMPTS TO EXORCISE EVIL SPIRITS Some today say that the Russian media did not work over the past years at the required level in order to prepare the domestic arena to confront the Western agenda, with all its soft power and e-tools. Channels and media websites succeeded in trapping the youth of Russia and other former Soviet countries and directing their orientation at the expense of Russian culture with all its vocabulary and spectrums which have always brought Russia many glories and laurel wreaths. They witnessed some of the results and repercussions of such a phenomenon in Belarus in the summer of 2020, and in Kazakhstan at the

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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

Some say that Moscow has worked on establishing special platforms tasked with addressing the outside such as Russia Today and Sputnik.

Renowned Russian film director and actor Nikita Mikhalkov

beginning of this year. Nikita Mikhalkov, the world-renowned Russian film director and actor, has worked on this in his program “The Exorcist” which he began presenting on the official news channel Rossi-24 nearly 20 years ago. The last episode of this program, which was rerun last Saturday for the first time since it was broadcast, caused a great deal of clamor in the media scene at an unprecedented degree for this channel. The controversy has raged over a number of its segments, especially those related to differences of opinion and the estimates between Nikita Mikhalkov and Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin›s official spokesman, on many stances regarding the current situation and the developments and repercussions of the “Russian military operation.” Perhaps the climax of controversy in this segment may lie in Nikita Mikhalkov’s keenness to quote from Putin, and his comments about some of the statements of Peskov, as well as his citation of Andrei Turchak, first deputy speaker of the Federation Council and secretary general of United Russia party. Turchak had criticized what Peskov said in his interview with the British “Sky News” channel about the “major losses” suffered by Russia in the battles with Ukraine, describing them as “the great tragedy.” What did Putin say? And where did Peskov go wrong – if it is possible to say so? To begin with, we will examine what Turchak said. A number of Russian newspapers and websites had tackled the criticism directed at Peskov, including what Turchak revealed. He had made his statements on the occasion of the eighth anniversary of the declaration of independence of the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the presence of the presidents of the two republics. Turchak had criticized what Peskov said about Russia›s “major losses” in the military confrontation with Ukraine and those supporting Moscow at the logistical, military and media levels. He was joined by Petr Tolstoy, deputy speaker of the State

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Duma and one of the grandchildren of the renowned Russian writer Lev Tolstoy. Mikhalkov had also criticized Peskov over his stance on the emigration of Russian celebrities abroad following the outbreak of «combat battles» on February 24. Peskov spoke of the incorrect assessment of the motives behind the haste of these celebrities to leave Russia. His justification was that fear was behind their speedy departure from Russia. Mikhalkov wondered about the reality of these fears, and what was being said about the inadmissibility of a strict judgment against these stars. He said that the fear that these stars and artists had was related in the first place to the fear of losing what they have in money, real estate and privileges. However, Mikhalkov soon said he agreed with what Peskov said that these stars did not have to ponder on understanding politics and the ensuing issues, and the complexities of NATO and its expansions. However, he admitted that he could not accept what Peskov said about the fear that these stars had, stressing that no one has undermined their security and safety, knowing that Moscow had witnessed no events that could cause fear. Mikhalkov questioned the reasons behind this fear: “What are you afraid of? Is the enemy at the gates of Moscow? Was the capital bombed?” He recalled what happened to Moscow on the day that Hitler›s forces raided it in October 1941, during the Second World War. The forces were few kilometers from the Kremlin in the heart of the capital, Moscow. He said that the Russian citizens were leaving Moscow to the east towards Kazakhstan and Siberia. Today’s stars, however, fear having their accounts frozen and losing their privileges. They also fear the probability of imposing sanctions on representatives of the opposition, and do not share the woes that people endured during World War II. Mikhalkov relayed Putin’s comments on the statement of his sometime-spokesman Peskov, from an interview that the President gave to the US NBC channel in 2018: • “Here’s Peskov sitting across from me. He sometimes blurts out a “terrible blizzard” (meaning “a great deal of astonishment and confusion”). Just like I am looking at this TV, I look at him and ask him what he is talking about, and who authorized him to do so!” Mikhalkov then went on to address issues related to patri-

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otism, and he disagreed about some of them with Peskov. He retrieved excerpts from the biography of TV presenter Olga Skabeyeva, the presenter of the main talk show “60 Minutes” on the official channel «Russia-1,» regarding the foundations and principles of civic education. Skabeyeva had revealed that she had attended a US-Russian private school in her hometown Volzhsk, a small Russian city, where they used to force them at the age of 6-7 to stand in respect to salute the US flag. Vladimir Medinsky, adviser to President Putin and former Minister of Culture, and head of the Russian delegation to the peace talks with Ukraine cited this fact as he underlined the need to emulate such a tradition to consolidate national values and ideals among young people. Mikhalkov added that Peskov rushed the next day to object to Medinsky›s statements, stressing, “What (Medinsky) said expresses his own opinion as one of the leaders of the Russian Military Historical Society that hosted that meeting, and is definitely not linked to the official position of the state.” Mikhalkov returned to the question whether the principles of civic education are a matter that could be a personal opinion. He also expressed his astonishment at the reasons some might give, in an attempt to justify the prohibition of the application of such principles. He condemned such attempts, including what the composer and singer Andrei Makarevich said as a justification for the emigration of celebrities: “Russia departed these people, not the opposite.” Mikhalkov chose Andrei Koryaev’s song “Do not live in a country that you hate,” to conclude this “controversial” episode. To exacerbate the drama, the world-famous director chose to conclude his controversial episode using the lyrics of this song with its sad melody and several underlying meanings. In the background, he showed photos of the “escaping” stars such as Alla Pugacheva, Zemfira, Andrei Makarevich, Renata Litvinova, Valery Leontiev, and Chulpan Khamatova, among other celebrities who were quick to leave Russia at the onset of the Russian military operation.

Russian media has also not paid the necessary attention to the need of drawing the world’s attention to the violations of legitimate rights, which later propelled the extremist nationalist forces to recover much of their past legacy.

IS PESKOV A PEACE DOVE? “Rtvi.com.news” used this headline for an article it published, in which it polled politics experts on an Israeli TV channel that described the attacks against Peskov as “a split among the representatives of the elite in Russia.” The experts estimated that this would unlikely lead to the resignation of the Kremlin›s spokesman. Peskov had spoken on April 7 with Sky News about the “major losses” suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine (which he described as a “great tragedy”) and about the prospect of an imminent end to the “Russian special military operation.” The statements of the Kremlin spokesman were met with criticism from social media users, some media and prominent political figures, including Chechnya President Ramzan Kadyrov and Andrei Turchak, secretary general of United Russia party. RTVI also quoted a number of political experts on the criticism against Peskov, describing it as a form of “elite war.” They added that this would be unlikely to result in the resignation of the Kremlin›s spokesperson. In this regard, RTVI also quoted Gleb Pavlovsky, former advisor to the former Kremlin chief of staff, and now an expert on political affairs, as saying that “Peskov supports Putin›s line in the peace negotiations while simultaneously exerting military pressure on Kyiv.” Meanwhile, “he faces opposition from those who want to delay the ‘special military operation’ for various reasons.” Pavlovsky added that it was “unreasonable to assume that the president›s spokesperson could speak, expressing his personal views, because his position does not permit him to do so.” Pav-

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President Putin awarding Margarita Simonyan the Order of Alexander Nevsky. (Sputnik)

Channels and media websites succeeded in trapping the youth of Russia and other former Soviet countries and directing their orientation at the expense of Russian culture with all its vocabulary and spectrums.

lovsky went on to say, “Some see a more favorable, more radical, and more hostile political climate within the country. There is a part of the military lobby that wants to continue the ‘special military operation,’ although I think it is highly unlikely that this lobby is representative of the masses of forces.” There is little competition among the entities within the entire Kremlin media group, which is one of the branches of power. There is a fierce fight over positions. Therefore, of course, there are ideological moments, for what might be called a “war party.”

RUSSIA TODAY’S EDITOR-IN-CHIEF CALLS FOR CENSORSHIP Margarita Simonyan. Remember the name? The Kremlin chose her in the beginning of this century to head the thennewly-born “Russia Today” network when she was only a little over 25 years old. Simonyan, who was granted almost absolute freedom by the Russian authorities, backed by a bucketload of “high-quality” funding, announced at the beginning of the “Russian military operation” her decision to register her marriage contract, after a civil marriage for more than ten years, in celebration of the commencement of the “combat battles,” as she put it. Margarita Simonyan surprised her followers and subordinates once again to announce her support for imposing censorship on the media, newspapers and publications, on the grounds that “major countries cannot live without censorship,” as per her estimates! Simonyan said that the time had come to amend the article in the Russian Constitution that stipulates “the prohibition of censorship.” She gave an example of the restrictions in

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China, which she said contribute to the development of the country. During her interview on “Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov,” Russia Today’s Editor-in-Chief elaborated on parts of the history of the Russian state and the freedom of the media and press it witnessed during the period between 1905-1917 (the date of the outbreak of the October Bolshevik Socialist Revolution led by Vladimir Lenin), and the post-perestroika in the mid-eighties of the last century and the subsequent unlimited freedoms in the nineties of the same century. She noted that everyone remembers that the Russian state collapsed in the wake of both periods. Perhaps it is strange that Simonyan is trying to suggest to her viewers and followers at home and abroad that she does not exercise such censorship on the multi-lingual “Russia Today” channels, since the Russian government authorities entrusted her with supervising the network since its establishment in the beginning of this century. It is worth noting that Simonyan’s statement on the need to enforce censorship came in line with the “Full House” media campaign that called for toughening and escalating the military operations against Ukraine. It also called for a retaliation to the bombing of civilians and incursions beyond the Russian borders, by bombing the Ukrainian railways and their five main axes that play a fundamental role in the flow of arms and military equipment from NATO countries to Ukraine. In recent years, Vladimir Solovyov, the most famous journalist in Russia, discussed the decision to send large numbers of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine to confront Russian forces for the first time since the end of World War II, which embraces multiple underlying deep meanings. This seems to be in sync with the tendencies of the majority inside Russia and in line with the ABCs of the logic and necessities of the moment, in response to the “crimes” committed by the extremist nationalist and neo-Nazi factions against Russian civilians and prisoners. Many observers in Moscow believe that such media material should be accessible abroad before disseminating them internally.

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What Does the West Want in Ukraine? Putin Refocusing Russian Military Operation on Consolidating Hold in Ukraine’s East, South

By Richard Haass Vladimir Putin launched his war against Ukraine with expansive aims that, if achieved, would have essentially ended that country’s existence as a sovereign state. Faced with costly military setbacks, the Russian president has since defined success down, refocusing the Russian military operation on consolidating its hold in Ukraine’s east and south.

Curiously, Western aims in Ukraine have been far less clear. Almost all the debate over what to do has focused on means: on the quantity and quality of military aid to provide the country, on the wisdom of establishing a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace, on the extent of economic sanctions on Russia. Little has been said about what either side would have to concede in order to end the war. Also left unsaid is whether an end to the conflict would need to be formalized

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Ukrainian soldiers ride in a military vehicle to the front line during a fight, amid Russia›s invasion in Ukraine, near Izyum, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, April 2022 ,23. REUTERS/ Jorge Silva.

in a treaty signed by Russia and Ukraine or simply accepted as a reality. Answering the question of how this war should end is vital as the struggle with Russia enters a critical moment, with a large battle looming. Wars can end when a major gap emerges between the belligerents so that one side can impose terms on the other, or when both sides realize that outright victory is not in the cards and decide it is better to settle for less than bear the costs of carrying on. In either situation, the end of the war can be codified in legal documents that address questions of territory and political and economic arrangements, or the conflict can simply wind down, coming to a de facto end without a formal peace. World War II was an example of the former; the Korean and Gulf Wars, the latter. In principle, success from the West’s perspective can be defined as ending the war sooner rather than later, and on terms that Ukraine’s democratic government is prepared to accept. But just what are those terms? Will Ukraine seek to recover all the territory it has lost in the past two months? Will it require that Russian forces withdraw completely from the Donbas and Crimea? Will it demand the right to join the EU and NATO? Will it insist that all this be set forth in a formal document signed by Russia? The United States, the EU, and NATO need to discuss such questions with one another and with Ukraine now. Western goals will inevitably be influenced by what happens on the ground, but what happens on the ground should not determine those goals; instead, policy aims should influence what is sought on the ground. To be sure, the Ukrainians have every right to define their war aims. But so do the United States and Europe. Although Western interests overlap with Ukraine’s, they are broader, including nuclear stability with Russia and the ability to influence the trajectory of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. It is also essential to take into account that Russia gets a vote. Although Putin initiated this war of choice, it will take more than just him to end it. He and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will both have to consider what they require in the way of territory and terms to halt hostilities. They will also have to decide if they are prepared not only to order an end to the fighting but also to enter into and honor a peace agreement. Another complexity is that some aspects of any peace, such as the lifting of sanctions against Russia, would not be determined by Ukraine alone but would require the consent of others. Meaningful consultations are essential if policy is not to be made carelessly and on the fly. And they are essential to preventing major fault lines from opening up between Ukraine and the United States and Europe, and even within NATO.

THREE FUTURES It is impossible to know if the Russian military will be able to realize its ambitions of asserting greater control in the

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In principle, success from the West’s perspective can be defined as ending the war sooner rather than later, and on terms that Ukraine’s democratic government is prepared to accept. Donbas region and establishing a land bridge to Crimea— and, if it is able to, whether Putin will again revise his war aims, in this case upward. What is almost certain is that no legitimate Ukrainian government would formally accept an outcome so favorable to Russia. The atrocities that Russian forces have committed during the fight have made it far harder for Kyiv to let Moscow leave the negotiating table with anything that would seem like a reward for its brutality. Zelensky may also believe (for good reason) that allowing Russia to maintain a hold on Ukraine’s territory would make it difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine to remain sovereign in any meaningful sense. On this score, the West should continue to provide support to Ukraine, to prevent Putin’s aggression from succeeding in Ukraine and from setting a dangerous precedent that would constitute a challenge to order everywhere. So even if Putin were prepared to cease major military operations in exchange for keeping a large swath of Ukraine, the war would probably continue at some level, much as it has in the so-called frozen conflict in the Donbas since 2014. One alternative to a scenario favoring Russia would be a stalemate. Things would stand more or less where they did before the invasion, with Russia occupying Crimea and exercising de facto control through its proxies over parts of the Donbas. Such a future would come about if Ukraine clawed back some of what Russia has gained over the past two months but if neither Ukraine nor Russia were able to achieve decisive military progress. This outcome could be acceptable to Ukraine, which has a powerful incentive to end a war that has caused so much death and destruction. It would be peace at a price, but potentially a price worth paying. And in principle, Putin, too, might support such an outcome, judging that there was little to gain from continuing the fight. If, as part of this scenario, Ukraine agreed not to join NATO, he might also calculate he could persuade many Russians that the country had won the war, even if it didn’t acquire much territory. If such a consensus emerged, it would be one worth supporting. But it seems overly optimistic to imagine that a military stalemate would pave the way for a diplomatic settlement. Putin would be hard-pressed to make a plausible case that

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such a muddied result justified the military, diplomatic, and economic costs of his war. Moreover, given his past rhetoric, he seems unlikely to sign away all claims to Ukraine, accepting its permanent separation from Russia and letting it choose a liberal, Western-oriented path for itself, including membership in the EU. The near certainty that such an outcome would not result in major sanctions relief, an end to war crimes investigations, or calls for reparations also argues against Putin accepting this scenario. A stalemate would almost certainly become an open-ended conflict. And again, many in Ukraine would reject any arrangement that left Russia in control of any Ukrainian territory. A third future would be defined by Ukrainian military success. Russia would be forced to accept not merely the pre2022 status quo but the pre-2014 status quo. In theory, this would be an ideal outcome for Ukraine, which would regain all the sovereignty it has lost in the past eight years, and for international order, as it would reinforce the norm that territory must not be acquired by force. In practice, however, things would be more complicated. Even if Ukraine succeeded in ousting Russian troops, the country would still be vulnerable to missile and artillery attacks emanating from Russia, to say nothing of cyberattacks and political interference. Even more important, it is near impossible to imagine Putin accepting such an outcome, since it would surely threaten his political survival, and possibly even his physical survival. In desperation, he might try to widen the war through cyberattacks or attacks on one or more NATO countries. He might even resort to chemical or nuclear weapons. It is far from certain that Russia has the mechanisms in place to prevent Putin from ordering such escalation if he decided he had nothing to lose. The potential for Russian escalation raises the question of whether at this point it would be wise for Ukraine to attempt to take back all of the Donbas and Crimea. Arguably, these aims are better left for a postconflict, or even a post-Putin,

Western goals will inevitably be influenced by what happens on the ground, but what happens on the ground should not determine those goals; instead, policy aims should influence what is sought on the ground.

period in which the West could condition sanctions relief on Russia’s signing of a formal peace agreement. Such a pact might allow Ukraine to enjoy formal ties to the EU and security guarantees, even as it remained officially neutral and outside NATO. Russia, for its part, might agree to withdraw its forces from the entirety of the Donbas in exchange for international protections for the ethnic Russians living there. Crimea might gain some special status, with Moscow and Kyiv agreeing that its final status would be determined down the road.

HISTORY’S ADVICE As the United States contemplates its strategy for Ukraine, it is useful to keep in mind two lessons of the Cold War. The first was to avoid direct armed conflict with the Soviet Union unless vital U.S. interests were threatened. The second was to accept less than optimal outcomes so as to avoid threatening vital Soviet interests, something that could all too easily lead to war. This recognition that there were limits to the United States’ goals meant deciding not to roll back Soviet advances in Eastern Europe after Moscow crushed the 1956 revolution in Hungary and the 1968 revolution in Czechoslovakia. It meant stopping Israeli forces from decimating the Egyptian Third Army after they surrounded it near Cairo during the 1973 war between the Soviet-allied Arab states and the U.S.-allied Israel. And it meant accepting communist rule in the Soviet Union itself. Such restraint was articulated in the doctrine of containment as developed by the diplomat George Kennan. But over time, as Kennan suggested, the successful application of containment could add to pressures that would undermine communism—as it eventually did, after four decades. The first lesson of the Cold War is reflected in existing

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A service member of proRussian troops stands guard as evacuees board buses to leave the city during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port of Mariupol, Ukraine April 2022 ,20. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, January ,18 2022. (AP Photo, File).

Western policy toward Ukraine. From the outset of the crisis, the United States made it clear that it would not place boots on the ground or establish a no-fly zone, since doing so could bring U.S. and Russian forces into direct contact and raise the risk of escalation. Instead, Washington and its NATO partners opted for an indirect strategy of providing arms, intelligence, and training to Ukraine while pressuring Russia with economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. As for the second lesson, the United States’ and NATO’s decision to pursue their aims through limited means has worked to a considerable extent. That choice has not prevented Russia from destroying Ukraine’s civilian centers, but the battle between the armed forces of the two countries has favored Ukraine. The question now is whether the West should embrace limited ends, eschewing military efforts to oust Russia from all of Ukraine or demanding regime change in Moscow as a condition of stopping the war. Whatever goals the West ultimately settles on, requiring that the war end with a formal peace agreement should not be one of them. The problem is not that it is impossible to come up with a plausible formula for mutual compromise that leaves each side better off; it is that depending on the formula, one or both sides might judge that they are better off continuing a war that holds out the possibility of a better outcome than they would be signing a pact that rules it out. With both countries still eyeing the possibility of military gains and wanting to avoid appearing weak, a formal pact appears out of reach for the foreseeable future. All this points to a long war. It will likely be fought mostly in Ukraine’s east and south, although Russia would retain the ability to attack other targets. The elements of a strategy for a long-term, open-ended war are well known: provide Ukraine with the weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence it needs to defend itself against Russia; make

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The conclusion is clear: the United States and its NATO partners should consult with one another and with Ukraine over the aims of the war. sure that NATO remains strong enough to discourage Russia from escalating the conflict or preventing supplies from reaching Ukraine; reduce energy imports from Russia as much as possible and as soon as possible. The conclusion is clear: the United States and its NATO partners should consult with one another and with Ukraine over the aims of the war. The United States and NATO also need to refine their plans for deterring and responding to any Russian attacks on other countries or any Russian use of weapons of mass destruction. In the near term, Western success will be highly unlikely to involve a peace treaty, a true end to the conflict, or regime change in Russia. Instead, success for now could consist of a winding down of hostilities, with Russia possessing no more territory than it held before the recent invasion and continuing to refrain from using weapons of mass destruction. Over time, the West could employ a mix of sanctions and diplomacy in an effort to achieve a full Russian military withdrawal from Ukraine. Such success would be far from perfect, just preferable to the alternatives. This article was originally published in Foreign Affairs.

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Clash over Border Smuggling between Syrian Forces, Iranian Militias National Defense Forces Lose a Number of Their Headquarters to Tehran-backed Militias By Jiwan Soz - Al-Qamishli Despite the relative calm that the various Syrian regions are experiencing, many disputes have begun to appear in the open between Syrian regime forces and the local and foreign militias that enjoy the regime’s support and have been fighting alongside it over the past years. These militias were forced to withdraw from a number of their headquarters and hand them over to Iran-backed foreign ones, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, which has been trying to impose its control by force of arms since it entered among the combatants in the Syrian crisis years ago.

What are the causes of these tensions and how will they affect Iranian support for the Bashar al-Assad regime, and what is the official position on what is happening? A researcher in regional security issues, Muhammad Fawzi, explained that “the core of the dispute that has begun to appear to the public between the Syrian regime on one side and Hezbollah on the other, is related to the Syrian regime’s view of Hezbollah as an actor seeking to strengthen its influence inside Syria beyond the authority of the regime itself.” In addition, there are a number of reasons that push the development of differences between the two sides, including the issue of border crossings, the party’s fortification of many of

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its military sites, and the adoption of moves that threaten Syria’s efforts to normalize its relations with neighboring Arab countries.

Tehran’s Attempt to Calm Allies In exclusive statements to Majalla, Fawzi elaborated, “These differences, if they escalate into a clash or confrontations between the two sides, may affect Iran’s support for the Syrian regime, but Tehran is trying to contain these differences and calm the atmosphere between its two allies, because any escalation in the differences between the two sides at the present time will be at the expense of its geopolitical influence in Syria, and it will cause great losses to Iran.” The illegal border crossings play the most prominent role in the disputes between the regime forces and Hezbollah as well as other Tehran-backed militias present on Syrian territory, as these militias differ among themselves on the proceeds of smuggling. This comes in addition to Iran’s attempts to bypass the role of the regime and its forces, which is what caused the dispute to spread extensively during the past few days to new areas located near the governorates of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, close to the Iraqi border. Elite fighters from Hezbollah, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, are reportedly leading the fight against rebels in the region of Qusayr. (Reuters)

Smuggling Crossings are a Main Cause of Dispute In this regard, Fawzi said, “One of the main points of contention between Hezbollah and the Syrian regime forces and its allies located in the border areas is the proceeds of illegal smuggling operations that take place across the border. Although the smuggling is supervised by both parties, Hezbollah seeks to seize the bulk of the proceeds.” The proceeds are used by Hezbollah to enhance its military capabilities in light of the restrictions imposed on it which curtail its sources of funding. The funds from the smuggling are also used by Hezbollah for investment activities that guarantee it large and renewable sources of income. He added that “the Iranian militias seek, by imposing their control over the capabilities and headquarters of some loyalist forces such as the National Defense Forces (NDF), to increase their area of influence in Syria, ensuring the achievement of two strategic goals.” Especially with the increasing size of the differences between the two sides, the movements of the forces loyal to the regime that the Iranian militias seek to restrict and influence are the National Defense Forces and the Fourth Division of Maher al-Assad, brother of the head of the Syrian regime. There are major differences between these two armed forces and Hezbollah, which have reached the point of engag-

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It is noteworthy that these security tensions are not the first of their kind, as they were preceded by a cautious tension between Hezbollah and the National Defense Forces in several of their headquarters, in Eastern Ghouta and Western Qalamoun. ing in an armed clash.

Tehran Counting on Russia’s Preoccupation He added, “Tehran is highly reliant on the RussianUkrainian crisis and is trying to exploit the Russian preoccupation to expand its influence in Syria, a trend whose features have emerged with reports that Tehran has transferred weapons to separate areas of the Iranian protectorate west of the Euphrates and Palmyra in the Homs countryside, and has established training centers and camps there.” Fawzi continued to state that, “This comes in addition to the efforts of the Iranian militias to expand their influence in the countryside of Hama governorate as well, by transforming the 47th Brigade located in Jabal Maarin in the southern countryside of the governorate into a military base for the Quds Force, knowing that the 47th Brigade is a tank brigade affiliated with the 11th Division of the Syrian Army, but it has become subject to Iranian control.”

Washington Can Curb Smuggling of Militias He also stressed that “the United States has a major role in confronting the smuggling operations that take place across the Syrian border, and the associated crimes and illegal practices, especially in light of the increase in the movements of its military forces in Syria during the era of current President Joe Biden. Additionally, the United States can represent a link between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian regime in the field of combating smuggling, thus ensuring the strengthening of the two parties’ ability to curb this phenomenon. However, what prevents the effectiveness of Washington’s role in the issue is its preoccupation with the Russian-Ukrainian war.” National Defense Forces Evacuate Headquarters Following the escalation of disputes between the Hezbollah militia and the National Defense Forces, the Hezbollah’s fighters attacked the checkpoints of the NDF, which are af-

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filiated with the regime forces in the Damascus countryside and detained a number of its members, according to what local sources from the region told Majalla. Local sources stated to Majalla that the number of detained National Defense Forces members reached at least seven, and their weapons were completely confiscated. As a result, the rest of the units retreated, after which Hezbollah set up a barrier on the Syrian-Lebanese border. However, this situation does not differ much from the situation prevailing in the Damascus countryside, as differences continue between the regime forces and Hezbollah there as well. Sources also indicated to Majalla that the National Defense militia in Eastern Ghouta took an unprecedented step by handing over its military headquarters to Hezbollah, after emptying it of all its members and military equipment, in the Shebaa area near the Damascus Inter-

The Iranian militias seek, by imposing their control over the capabilities and headquarters of some loyalist forces such as the National Defense Forces (NDF), to increase their area of influence in Syria, ensuring the achievement of two strategic goals.

national Airport road. This portends further escalation in the coming period if the Hezbollah militia tries to control other headquarters in the same area, despite the existence of an agreement between the two sides in Homs. Last week, both the NDF and Hezbollah agreed that the latter’s fighters would be deployed in the points surrounding the city of Al-Qaryatayn in the eastern Homs countryside and that the National Defense Forces would be allowed to move from the city of Al-Qaryatayn to the Syrian Badia, and in return, Hezbollah would release detainees from the National Defense Forces who were arrested on April 19. On April 10th, the regime’s security services arrested three new members of the National Defense Forces from the town of Al-Sukhna in the eastern countryside of Homs, on charges of communicating with ISIS cells, days after the arrest of a leader in the National Defense Forces from the city of Al-Sukhna for the same reason, according to local sources.

Differences Were Preceded by Other Tensions It is noteworthy that these security tensions are not the first of their kind, as they were preceded by a cautious tension between Hezbollah and the National Defense Forces in several of their headquarters, in Eastern Ghouta and Western Qalamoun. This coincided with persistent attempts by Hezbollah to expand its control and influence over those areas, which led to clashes between them and the killing of members of both parties. The Iranian-backed Iraqi and Afghan militias have strengthened their presence at the contact points between the Syrian

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A Hezbollah fighter stands in front of anti-tank artillery at Juroud Arsal, the SyriaLebanon border. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

Shi’ite militias in Iraq, near the Syria border strip in 2015. Photo credit: AP

regime-controlled areas and the SDF-controlled areas in the eastern countryside of Raqqa governorate, and at the regular land crossings in the city of Tabqa and the town of alAkershi, against the backdrop of the recent security tensions between the SDF and the regime forces, as the two sides engaged in sieges in their areas of control in the provinces of Aleppo and Al-Hasakah.

Iran-backed Militias Enter Countryside of Raqqa Local sources from the region confirmed to Majalla the arrival of Iranian shipments during the past month, some of them loaded with various weapons and ammunition, and others with logistical equipment for training. Additionally, there was the arrival of members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards militia to the points of contact between the areas of the regime and the SDF in Raqqa countryside, where they established a number of military checkpoints on main and secondary roads to monitor the movement of civilians and trucks crossing. These moves have caused anger and reactions from the people, who describe the entry of Iranian militias into their towns and villages in the countryside of Raqqa as a new “occupation,” accusing the Syrian regime of facilitating this task, given that it is the first time that Iranian forces have entered the area in this way. In the middle of this week, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights sources reported that the Iranian-backed militias had brought in a convoy of dozens of trucks from Iraqi lands to their areas of influence, which are located west of the Euphrates River. According to sources from the British-based observatory,

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What are the causes of these tensions and how will they affect Iranian support for the Bashar al-Assad regime, and what is the official position on what is happening? the number of completely covered trucks was about 34 and headed towards Deir ez-Zor military airport and other places in the farming area in the countryside of al-Mayadin, east of Deir ez-Zor. Those trucks contained weapons and ammunition, including Iranian-made medium-range missiles, in addition to logistical equipment as well. This came in tandem with escalating Iranian activity within the Syrian territories, in light of Moscow’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine. Also on April 13th, Tehran-backed militias, including the Afghan “Fatimiyoun Brigade”, transported two shipments of weapons and ammunition to the archaeological area of Shibli located in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, west of the Euphrates River. They also transported two shipments to the eastern desert of Homs. Jiwan Soz is a researcher and journalist who focuses on * Syrian and Turkish affairs and minorities in the Middle East. He is also a member of Syndicat National des Journalistes (National Syndicate of Journalists [SNJ]). He tweets at @JiwanSoz1

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The American Hypocrisy on ICC US Rejects Court on Own Afghan War Crimes, But Seeks Its Support Against Russia

By Mohammad Ali Saleh - Washington The Americans’ deep anger, official and popular, because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has been leading to: first, decisions to send heavy arms to Ukraine to liberate “every inch’ of its territory; second, increasing sanctions on Russia to make it “suffer forever;” and, third, taking Russia to the International Criminal Court (ICC). But the last point has been controversial among politicians, academics and the military. While many pointed to the hypocrisy of the US for not being a member of the court, and for imposing sanctions on the court for investigating the US crimes in Afghanistan (and other countries), others argued that the hypocrisy was less important than punishing Russia. But from the beginning, the US had been ambivalent – if not opposed – to the ICC. In 2000, President Bill Clinton reluctantly signed the Rome Statute (the treaty that created the ICC) during his final days in office. That was because he was faced by strong opposition in the Congress, mostly from Republicans. There was concern about “politicized” court prosecutors, and that the court might have jurisdiction over U.S. personnel, particularly the military. In 2001, freshly voted into the White House, President George W. Bush “unsigned” the treaty. In 2016, even before he became president, Donald Trump, during the election campaign, insulted the ICC for just doing the preparatory work of looking into the US crimes in Afghanistan. When he became president, he levied sanctions — usually reserved for those who violate international law rather than those who enforce it — on then Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and other ICC personnel. Although what Bensouda did was merely to be authorized to start her job and the authorization addressed not only the US crimes, but also about the ones committed by the Taliban. John Bolton, in his first major address as Trump’s National Security Advisor, attacked the ICC for “lacking authority to exercise jurisdiction over crimes that have disputed and ambiguous definitions.”

The ICC, said Bolton, is “superfluous” given that “domestic judicial systems already hold American citizens to the highest legal and ethical standards.” He added that the US would do everything “to protect our citizens” should the ICC attempt to prosecute US servicemen over alleged detainee abuse in Afghanistan. In that event, ICC judges and prosecutors would be barred from entering the US, their funds in the U.S. would be sanctioned, and the US “will prosecute them in the US criminal system”. Bolton also criticized Palestinian efforts to bring Israel before the ICC over its human rights abuses in the West Bank and Gaza Following are two opposite opinions, derived from their authors’ tweets, websites and statements to the media. On one hand, “Americans are rightfully horrified by Mariupol. But most of us don’t even know what the U.S. did in Mosul or Raqqa,” argued Medea Benjamin, co-founder of CODEPINK, a women-led human rights organization, and the Green Party candidate in California in 2000 for the US Senate. On the other hand, “Hypocritical, but OK, “argued Oona Hathaway, a professor of law and political science at Yale University, and co-author of a book, “The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World.”

MEDEA BENJAMIN: “MOSUL AND RAQQA” “Will Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine convince the U.S. to consider its recent past? Americans are rightfully horrified by Mariupol. But most of us don’t even know what the U.S. did in Mosul or Raqqa … Americans have been shocked by the death and destruction of Russia’s

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invasion of Ukraine, filling our screens with bombed buildings and dead bodies lying in the street. But the U.S. and its allies have waged war in country after country for decades, carving swathes of destruction through cities, towns and villages on a far greater scale than has so far disfigured Ukraine … As was recently reported, the U.S. and its allies have dropped more than 337,000 bombs and missiles, or 46 per day, on nine countries since 2001 alone. Senior U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency officers told Newsweek that the first 24 days of Russia’s bombing of Ukraine was less destructive than the first day of U.S. bombing in Iraq in 2003 … U.S. military officers told Amnesty International that the U.S. assault on Raqqa in Syria was the heaviest artillery bombardment since the Vietnam War. Mosul in Iraq was the largest city that the United States and its allies reduced to rubble in that campaign, with a pre-assault population of 1.5 million. About 138,000 houses were damaged or destroyed by bombing and artillery, and an Iraqi Kurdish intelligence report counted at least 40,000 civilians killed … While Western leaders are demanding that Russia be held accountable for war crimes, they have raised no such clamor to prosecute U.S. officials. Yet during the U.S. military occupation of Iraq, both the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the UN Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) documented persistent and systematic violations of the Geneva Conventions by U.S. forces … Americans are rightfully horrified when they see civilians killed by Russian bombardment in Ukraine, but they are generally not quite so horrified, and more likely to accept official justifications, when they hear that civilians are killed by U.S. forces or American weapons in Iraq, Syria or Gaza. The Western corporate media play a key role in this, by showing us corpses in Ukraine and the wails of their loved ones, but shielding us from equally disturbing images of people killed by U.S. or allied forces …”

OONA HATHAWAY: “HYPOCRITICAL, BUT OK” “Is it hypocritical for the United States to embrace a court it has so aggressively rejected in the past? Perhaps so. But that doesn’t change the fact that the United States is surely right to support accountability for the horrific crimes being

committed in Ukraine … There is no getting around the charge of hypocrisy. But supporting the ICC now would provide some measure of justice to the people of Ukraine, who continue to suffer in Russia’s illegal war.

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Many pointed to US hypocrisy for not joining ICC, and for imposing sanctions on the court for investigating U.S. crimes in Afghanistan and other countries, some argued that hypocrisy was less important than punishing Russia. That goal is more important than a foolish consistency … There is certainly little prospect that the United States will formally join the body, because of the following: First, the US is not going to reverse its opposition to the court’s investigation of alleged U.S. crimes in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Second, an appropriations law from 1999 bars the United States from spending funds to support the court, Third, the American Service-Members Protection Act prohibits other institutional support. The law calls for the following: First, authorized the president to use “all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release” of any U.S. or allied personnel “being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court.” Second, prohibited U.S. military aid to countries that joined the ICC unless they were members of NATO, were a major nonNATO ally or had agreed not to surrender U.S. personnel to the court. Ideally those laws would be amended to allow for greater cooperation. But even if they aren’t, there is plenty of room for compromise that could benefit both sides in this complicated relationship. Sharing information with the ICC prosecutor as he investigates possible crimes in Ukraine could be an important step toward ensuring accountability. The 2010 Justice Department memo concluded that the United States could provide “intelligence, law enforcement information, diplomatic reporting, investigative actions, and testimony … to the ICC for particular investigations or prosecutions of foreign nationals accused of genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity.” In addition, the memo said, the United States could “detail personnel for an ICC investigation or prosecution of a foreign national” as long as the support was “case-specific” rather than institutional. The United States could also provide assistance and support to the Ukrainian government in evidence collection and handling — procedures that are crucial to prosecutions in any legal forum.…”

conomy

Can China Conquer Crypto ?

Beijing’s Dangerous Quest to Control Digital Currencies

By Darrell Duffie Ever since Bitcoin exploded onto markets, governments around the world have been exploring how to digitize their currencies. A total of 87 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP are researching, piloting, or deploying central bank digital currencies (CBDCs): digital versions of official paper money. Their goals are varied and include ensuring the primacy of official money over unwanted cryptocurrencies, improving the efficiency

with which people can make payments, and reducing the number of households that rely solely on paper money to provide for their needs. Competition between banks for payment-related services has been relatively weak, and in many countries, bank-based payments are slow, costly, and not widely available to consumers below the poverty line. Regulators hope that digital currencies could enliven competition and innovation. But of all the states working on official digital currencies, only a single major power has made one widely available

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Illustration of the Chinese yuan, February 2022. (Florence Lo / Reuters)

within its economy—China. Beginning in 2020, Beijing allowed groups of residents in several cities to conduct transactions using a digitized Chinese yuan, or e-CNY. In the two years since, the country has gradually expanded the number of people and businesses with access to the currency. Today, over 120 million people in China have set up e-CNY wallets, and the state is planning to make the system available to all residents. China’s government says that the expansion of the e-CNY is driven by the same economic goals that motivate most of the world’s central banks to explore digital currencies. But China’s government has also created this new digital currency for political reasons. Beijing views the e-CNY as an opportunity to influence global norms and rules around the Internet, data security, and the overall digital economy. Or, as Chinese President Xi Jinping put it, the “community of common destiny in cyberspace.” Professors Sun Lijian and Yang Jiemeng of Fudan University described digital currencies as a “new battlefield for competition” in which China can assert technological and economic dominance. If widely utilized, the e-CNY could give the Chinese government even more insight into and power over its citizens. For Washington, this should raise concerns. China’s leadership in digital currencies could eventually erode the primacy of the U.S. dollar in cross-border payments. The eCNY and other payment technologies under development in China could also help Beijing avoid sanctions, making the West’s aggressive economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more difficult to replicate. And China could pass on its digital currency technology to states that might use it to spy on their own residents. Thankfully, the United States is not unprepared. In March 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order on digital assets designed to kick-start a whole-of-government effort to meet the challenges of the future digital economy. This order is a strong beginning, one that has many important provisions, including an exploration of the potential for a digital dollar. But if the United States wants to remain the leader in global finance and payments, ensure the dollar’s continued dominance, and protect privacy, it will need to properly execute Biden’s order—and go further. Washington should ultimately take a leading role in setting international standards for how to use digital currencies across borders, whether they are private or official. And to do that, it must advance its own digital currency technology.

DATA POWER According to the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, Beijing has several main goals for the eCNY. It wants to provide citizens with a substitute for paper money, one that will lead to more efficient transactions. For example, the e-CNY will be available for offline

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China could also help Beijing avoid sanctions, making the West’s aggressive economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more difficult to replicate. use in rural areas without cell or Internet service, using technologies such as near-field communication. China’s central bank also wants to reduce corruption by making payments easier to trace and could use the e-CNY to respond more quickly to changes in macroeconomic conditions by providing more flexible and targeted forms of liquidity. Finally, the People’s Bank hopes to cut its own costs. According to one estimate, the e-CNY might save China up to $24 billion on the annual direct and indirect expenses associated with producing and distributing physical money. But not all of Beijing’s aims are necessarily beneficial to China’s citizens. In recent years, many Chinese consumers have shifted from traditional state-owned commercial banks to China’s large and vibrant financial technology sector—dominated by Ant Group and Tencent—for payments, wealth management, small loans, insurance, and other financial products. In the process, these two giant technology firms gained vast amounts of personal data, undercutting the power of the state. Beijing has responded over the past year with a raft of new regulations that limit the market power of technology firms. As the Global Times, an outlet controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), put it in a July 2021 editorial, “No internet giant is allowed to become a super data base that has more personal data about the Chinese people than the country does.” And as People’s Bank Deputy Governor Fan Yifei said, “the People’s Bank will control all of the information. We can use big data to analyze transaction data and money flow.” China’s government has banned private cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, largely for the same reason. China’s government apparently believes that as users adopt the e-CNY, they will turn away from private firms and back to the central government for their banking needs. Beijing could then use the digital yuan to increase its power over China’s population. Under a system that it calls “managed anonymity,” the People’s Bank of China can trace e-CNY commerce to bank accounts, ID cards, and phone numbers. Users will have complete anonymity only if they make small payments from hardware wallets that function as prepaid smart cards. This means that the central bank—and, through it, the CCP—will be able to

conomy

see most transactions, freeze any targeted account, and adjust its balances. The digital yuan, in other words, could become a tool for monitoring Chinese citizens’ social and political activism and, eventually, for punishing those who run afoul of the state. The e-CNY will not just empower the CCP at home. The currency could also increase Beijing’s international position. In the years to come, transactions with central bank digital currencies will likely be integral to the global economy. China has an early chance to set the standards and create the infrastructure for central bank digital currencies—an opportunity it has been quick to leverage. The People’s Bank of China has already proposed international principles for digital currency transactions and is working with the Bank for International Settlements and the monetary authorities of Thailand and the United Arab Emirates to create cross-border infrastructure for exchanging the central bank digital currencies of different countries. Beijing could use its leadership in this sector to further challenge U.S. economic power. The fraction of crossborder payments made in dollars could decline. China’s government could also acquire the ability to evade and undermine Western sanctions. China has long chafed at the sanctioning power of the United States and Europe, but because China’s economy remains heavily dependent on access to U.S. banks and SWIFT payment messaging, the country has had little choice but to allow its banks to adhere to most Western sanctions. When Washington sanctioned Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam for fighting the city’s democracy movement, for example, the Hong Kong government was forced to pay Lam in bundles of paper cash because no banks would provide her with account services. Since Russia was sanctioned for its invasion of Ukraine, most banks in China have been reluctant to provide countervailing assistance to Russian firms and banks, given the risk of secondary

Washington should ultimately take a leading role in setting international standards for how to use digital currencies across borders, whether they are private or official.

sanctions by the United States and European countries. But Beijing could eventually reduce its exposure to sanctions if it sufficiently expands its own cross-border payment messaging system, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or if it can develop a method of making cross-border payments using the e-CNY that does not rely on SWIFT. In that case, China’s government and its businesses could conduct many international transactions without the need to go through Western financial institutions, reducing Beijing’s vulnerability to the demands of Washington and Europe.

CHECKS AND BALANCES The U.S. government is aware of what the digital yuan could mean for the dollar, for data privacy, and for Washington’s ability to impose far-reaching sanctions. And it has begun to outline its own vision for how to integrate digital currencies into the global economic order. In early 2022, the Federal Reserve set out basic principles that it would likely apply to a U.S. digital dollar, should one emerge. In his executive order, Biden directed the government to investigate the design of such a currency. The Federal Reserve and the White House should carefully investigate the parameters and the advantages of the digital dollar before committing to its broad use. A digital currency that maintains the privacy of Americans, guards against illegal transactions, and creates a competitive, inclusive, and innovative payment system will not be easy to develop. But because it will take some time to reach these objectives, the United States should respond to Biden’s order by starting a well-resourced research-and-development effort that engages the innovative strength of the U.S. private sector and the intellectual capital of its universities. Project Hamilton, a digital dollar research partnership between the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found that a digital dollar could meet “the robust speed, throughput, and fault tolerance requirements of a large retail payment system.” There are significant remaining technology gaps, however, and as Biden noted, the United States will need systems that protect privacy, allow unbanked households to access the new currency, and are resilient to cyberattacks. To close these gaps effectively, the federal government should establish a series of contracts with private-sector firms and universities. The White House has called for researching and then creating regulations for digital payment systems. The United States currently lacks a clear regulatory framework for private and public payment systems, hampering innovation

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Chinese president Xi Jinping delivers a speech via video link to the opening ceremony of the Bo’ao Forum For Asia in Bo’ao in southern China’s Hainan Province, Thursday, April 21, 2022. (Huang Jingwen/Xinhua via AP)

and helping shield legacy banks from market forces. The United States should instead regulate in favor of greater competition. For example, the Fed could leverage the power of its forthcoming fast-payment infrastructure, FedNow, by encouraging people and firms to use it as a common payment platform, accessible to all consumers, merchants, and payment service providers on a fully interoperable basis. This would simplify most common payment tasks and lower fees by forcing banks and other providers to compete more directly with one another. Finally, as Biden’s order noted, Washington must work to set international standards for digital currencies. In practice, that will mean drawing up and seeking agreements on clear, actionable, digital currency standards for privacy, financial crimes, financial stability, and the protection of each country’s monetary sovereignty from foreign digital currencies—whether they come from other central banks or the private sector. Washington and its allies should also assist countries interested in developing their own central bank digital currencies or other digital payment systems. This can be done by directly providing technology or through grants. For example, the Build Back Better World partnership, a G-7 initiative, will provide developing countries with infra-

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structure funding that could be used for these purposes. Other vehicles for international assistance include the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the World Bank. Digital currencies can simplify the everyday lives of consumers, lower their costs, and increase their access to banking services. New digital payment systems can enable emerging consumer technologies, such as smart contracting and the Internet of Things, that will connect money to emerging Internet applications that call for safe automatic payments. The U.S. government has a significant opportunity to improve the lives of Americans and people around the world by advancing competition and payment-system innovation. But to do so, Washington must assume leadership over digital currency developments and offer support and technology to other countries. Otherwise, China could assume a more dominant role in setting the global agenda for payment technologies—and create standards that endanger privacy and benefit its own currency at the expense of the dollar. This article was originally published by Foreign Affairs.

pinion

On Tunisia’s Financial Sovereignty The photo accompanying this text reflects the times when Tunisia, strong in its achievements and its financial reputation, held the vice presidency of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank and led a good number of the plenary sessions of these meetings.

By Taoufik Baccar*

It was in Istanbul in 2009 and obviously the autumn meetings when the assemblies are held and not the spring meetings where Tunisia almost never participated because it had nothing to do with them. You would say that these times are over. Yes, they are, as are the times when Tunisia repaid its stand-by credit to the IMF in advance (1991), the times when it accessed the international financial market (1994) thus freeing itself from the pressure imposed by this great institution, the times when it participated at the request of the IMF in a round table in order to contribute to the financing of a loan for the benefit of Ukraine, and the times when it was consulted

concerning the instruments to be put in place following the international financial crisis of 2008/2007 etc. Tunisia›s performance concerning this chapter was the result of an accumulation of collective work that had continued without interruption over a long period. It had been made possible thanks to the efforts put forth by valiant ministers and governors, in particular the late Hédi Nouira, Ismail Khelil and Beji Hamda, as well as competent and dedicated executives, in particular, those at the ministries of finance, development and the Central Bank of Tunisia, etc. It is true that these times are over and while waiting for the reconstruction of this image of a respected Tunisia, financially solid and economically viable, we will have to adapt to a new status – that of a country that must learn to ‘beg with the knife under the throat’, of a country that will no longer dare to invoke its financial sovereignty and which must accept the orders of others.

* Taoufik Baccar is a prominent Tunisian politician and economist. He was the governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia from 2004 to 2011. Prior to that, he was appointed Tunisia›s Minister of Economic Development in 1995, and Minister of Finance in 1999.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1902- April- 29/04/2022

Samir Sabri: The Benevolent Multitalented Artist

www.majalla.com

«Live show»: A New Trend of Ramadan Series The Ugly Truth About Social Media By Maryam Raafat A group of young actors competed in Ramadan›s series marathon with their own production «Live Show», a -14episode series that has been screened through their YouTube channel. 1980, the troupe›s name and also the name of their channel, is named after one of their most popular plays.

The series discusses the domination of the cyber media over people›s lives nowadays.

THE PLOT The story is about a company that launched a fake application called «Live Show», where 6 individuals are asked to stay online and complete 360 hours in one month to get paid 4000 dollars. The participants don’t know this fact about

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Snippets from the Live long--14 Show, a episode series that has been screened through YouTube. Credit: Live Show’s YouTube channel

the application and they deal with it as if it is a real one and that they are being watched by real audience. The company hires 6 watchers who are responsible to watch each participant. The watchers are the only viewers for the participants, they are the ones who write all the comments and call the participants during their lives. Consequently, the watchers start to control the participants’ behavior and as events develop, different kinds of relations start to emerge between the watchers and the participants, and roles mingle and the participants control the watchers› actions and reactions. Nada Younes, known as «Nody trend» played by Sally Saeid, is a girl in her twenties, seeks fame and money, and one of the participants who is being watched by Yasser played by Hassan Khaled. Nada is very intelligent girl that she discovers the truth of the game early on, so she and Yasser kept playing together a power game through the episodes that

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sometimes Yasser feels that she is the one who is watching him.

THE UGLY TRUTH The writer and director Mahmoud Gamal el-Hedeiny succeeded in keeping the series› rhythm exciting as each episode reveals a surprise about the characters and how such application can ruin their real lives. We find one of the participants called Saeed or Ramadan el- Sokary, played by Walid Abdel Ghany, who wants to be a famous actor. He thinks that this application will give him the fame and popularity he seeks, so is ready to let everything go in order to achieve his fake dream. Saeed›s wife leaves the home because he totally abandons her and spends all his time in front of the application. There is a different example of the participants which is Iman, played by Heba El-Koumy. Iman is a divorced woman who fled with her small daughter from her family and her main purpose is the money that enables her to live

away from her aggressive family. Iman is being watched by Amir (played by Mahmoud Abdel Aziz). They fall in love but again the rules of the game ruin any good inside Amir, who at the end calls her father and tells him about her place in order to earn more money. «I am observing a reality. We need to think about how can we benefit from the social media and protect ourselves from its dangers, how to use such tools without

The series reveals the writer’s view that we all are part of a game; we may think that we are controlling its rules but the truth is that we are being controlled by it.

letting them control us,» said Mahmoud Gamal el-Hedeiny, the writer and the director. The series reveals a fact, from the writer›s point of view, that we all are part of a game, we may think that we are controlling its rules but the truth is that we are being controlled by it.

THE JOURNEY «The idea sparked in my mind in 2020 during the covid19- curfew. It was incomplete at that moment when I caught the series› main plot which is the live shows. I started writing the episodes in April 2020. We started shooting in August and September 2020,» el-Hedeiny added to Majalla. «Editing and processing of graphics, colors and sound took around one year and a half in order to produce the series in its best form and to synchronize the messages that are being used during the live show of each participant as this is the main part of the series in order to appear very real,» El-

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Snippets from the long--14 Live Show, a episode series that has been screened through YouTube. Credit: Live Show’s YouTube channel

Snippets from the Live long-episode-14 Show, a series that has been screened through YouTube. Credit: Live Show’s YouTube channel

Hedeiny explained.

according to el-Hedeiny.

The cast started reading rehearsals long time before shooting, where the actors read their roles very well many times and discussed every detail of their characters before shooting.

THE FINALE

HARD WORKING The actors who played the live show participants were trained very well on the live shows experience, for example, Sally Saied who played «Nada Younes» aka «Nody trend» used to train every day in front of a video camera and improvise as if she is in a real live show, in order to present the role in a very realistic way.

The final scene breaks the illusion as we find the six participants in unified formal suits out of their characters› clothes and they are no more acting their characters. They all meet together with the manager as if they are employees in the company. «I wanted to end the series in a way that make the audience think and doubt because this is the main message of the series, that we need to doubt anything behind the screens and think of it twice as the internet is all a virtual space and we need to be aware all the time,» El-Hedeiny concluded.

Live Show starred by Hatem Salah, Assem Ramadan, Hassan Khaled, Mahmoud Abdel Aziz, Mohamed Khalifa, Perihan Anwar, Mai Salah, Aly Hemida, Mohamed Gabr, Nour Sulieman who played ‹Seif› and Walid Walid Abdel Ghany, Sally Saeid, Heba El Abdel Ghany who played ‹Saeed› were Koumy, Nour Sulieman, Mohamed Attaby, sending to the director short videos they Nadia Hassan. Written and directed by make with their characters in the series, Mahmoud Gamal el-Hedeiny. Heba El Koumy, who played “Eman”, has participated in one of the live shows with her character in the series.

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The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, April 2022 .26. (Photo credit: Salma Adham)

ulture

Egyptian Textile Museum at NMEC The Display Represents Egyptian Textile Art Throughout History By Salma Adham - Cairo

cradle of arts.

Egypt has been a land rich in many cultures, arts, and industries throughout the ages. The ancient Egyptians knew many crafts and arts, including the art of textile making and they created one-of-a-kind pieces using different fabrics, graphics and dazzling embroidery. Throughout the ages, Egypt possessed a distinctive heritage of textile art that reflects the features of each historical period and highlights its culture. Each artifact inherited from a certain period has its own mark and beauty, which tells the story of Egypt as a land and

On the occasion of the World Heritage Day, which falls on April 18 of each year, coinciding with the first anniversary of the opening of the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization in Fustat, Khaled El-Anany, Egyptian Minister of Tourism and Antiquities, inaugurated the Egyptian Textile Hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC). The display shows a unique collection of archaeological artifacts present in the Textile

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The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, April 2022 .26. (Photo credit: Salma Adham)

Museum on Al-Moez Street and several artifacts transferred from some Egyptian museums and stores to tell the history of Egyptian textiles throughout the different eras. The Egyptian Textile Hall includes nearly 650 artifacts, of which 250 were transferred from the Egyptian Museum in Tahrir, the Museum of Islamic Art in Bab Al-Khalq, the Mohamed Ali Palace in Manial, the Agricultural Museum, and the stores of the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization, to enrich the display. The transfer of all the exhibits was carried out under the archaeological and technical supervision of the Ministry, taking all neces-

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Throughout the ages, Egypt possessed a distinctive heritage of textile art that reflects the features of each historical period and highlights its culture. sary measures and using scientific methods for the packaging and transportation. The hall covers an area of 1000 m2, display-

ulture

ing unique collections of Egyptian textiles using the latest methods of modern display techniques, such as two well-equipped display screens and a lighting system appropriate to the monument’s nature. In addition, there are screens to display a series of documentaries that tell the history of the Egyptian textile. The visitor gains an integrated idea of Egyptian textiles through the displays, starting from prehistoric times, and passing through the Pharaonic, Greek, Roman, Coptic and

Islamic eras, up to the modern and contemporary era. Each piece is accompanied by an identification plate with its manufacture date and story. Among the most important pieces on display is a group of woolen robes dating back to the Ancient Amarna era, which is displayed for the first time and is the best witness to the ancient Egyptian use of wool, contrary to what is commonly believed.

The display shows a unique collection of archaeological artifacts present in the Textile Museum on Al-Moez Street and several artifacts transferred from some Egyptian museums and stores to tell the history of Egyptian textiles. 50

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The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, April 2022 .26. (Photo credit: Salma Adham) -7The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, (Salma Adham)

The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, April 2022 .26. (Photo credit: Salma Adham)

The newly-opened textile hall at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization (NMEC) in Cairo, Egypt, (Photo: Salma Adham)

There are also linen robes dating back to different ancient times including the Ptolemaic era, the Coptic and Islamic eras and the modern era. There is a group of lint, silk, cotton, and various fabrics and tents for which Egypt was famous. There also are models of shirts and gowns dating back to the Greco-Roman era and the most essential tools of ancient spinning and weaving. You can also find a model of a textile workshop from the Middle Kingdom era.

Among the most important pieces on display is a group of woolen robes dating back to the Ancient Amarna era, which is displayed for the first time. In addition, there is a statue of weavers and a group of statues and paintings that illustrates ancient Egypt’s fashion through the ages. Amid the objects on display are tools used by the ancient Egyptians to clean clothes with illustrations demonstrating the diverse stages of laundering clothes. The display is enriched with a collection of heritage and traditional fabrics showing the traditional costumes of Egyptians in modern times, specifically from Sinai, Siwa, the Delta, Upper Egypt, and Nubia, and a unique collection of traditional costumes of farmers and Egyptian women.

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port

Viral Basketball Star Empowering a New Generation of Muslim Girls Jamad Fiin Inspires Youth One Layup at a Time By Sarah Gamal Basketball is a very popular and well-known sport in the United States of America, with a large following, particularly among people of African descent. Jamad Fiin›s hijab, which she wore while playing basketball in the United States of America, was not an impediment to her breaking into a game and competing against the best players on the field; on the contrary, the veil was the most prominent feature that distinguished her through social media platforms, which was the torch of her professional beginnings after the spread of videos of her went viral on social media. Initially, a relative of hers released a video of her playing basketball on social media, which received millions of views. Fiin›s phone lit up with texts from friends congratulating her on being viral, and her Twitter «likes» and Facebook views skyrocketed. The video and the sight of a young woman hooping in traditional Muslim dress shocked the basketball world, attracting rappers Drake, Lil Baby, and OverTime, as well as Boston Celtics standout Jaylen Brown. «People›s astonishment and surprise at seeing a veiled Muslim lady playing basketball was one of the causes that contributed to the viral video›s extensive dissemination,» the Bostonbased Somali basketballer said.

Since then, the social media sensation has used her celebrity status to help others, founding a camp to empower young women through basketball as a senior captain of the Emmanuel College basketball team in Boston, and she›s on a mission to show all young girls that basketball is for them. Born and raised in Boston as the daughter of Somali immigrants, basketball was, in a literal sense, always nearby for Fiin. Fiin started

Jamad Fiin stuns the world with her basketball skills (Photo credit @_ jamaaad/Instagram)

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Fiin leads a basketball clinic in Toronto at the Raptors› practice facility. (Photo credit @_ jamaaad/Instagram)

basketball at a young age and had to push herself to get better every day. She had to do everything herself as she grew up because she didn›t have someone to turn to or even seek a mentor for help on the problems of being a Muslim girl and playing basketball. She didn›t want to give up something she enjoyed, so she continued to play basketball while wearing a hijab. This lack of support can be traced back to a traumatic past. After a civil war broke out in Somalia in 1991, a severe form of Islamic law took hold, and sport was labelled a diabolical deed. As a result, girls were not permitted to participate in sports or even to watch them. Despite the fact that Somalia currently has women›s club teams and a women›s basketball team, Islamists continue to threaten players› lives. Fiin was the senior captain of the Emmanuel College Women›s Basketball Team. She was also the captain of the Somali National Women›s Basketball Team, who competed in FIBA tournaments in Kampala, Uganda (2017) and Sharjah, United Arab Emirates (2018).

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Jamad Fiin›s hijab was not an impediment to her breaking into a game and competing against the best players on the field. She played for Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, as a freshman, appearing in 23 games for the Cougars and averaging 13 minutes per game. According to her records at the time, she scored a season-high 20 points on two occasions, the first in a 61-63 overtime win over Bridgewater Virginia on Dec. 28 in which she hit the go-ahead three-pointers with nine seconds left to secure the win, and the second in a 31-90 victory over Mount Holyoke on Jan. 24. Fiin spent two years on the women›s basketball team at Clark University before coming to Emmanuel College. She was a four-year varsity player at Boston Latin High School and represented Somalia on the national women›s basketball team. Jamad Fiin founded her chosen family in order to

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encourage other Muslim women to participate in basketball. Fiin transformed her passion for basketball into something important in 2019, launching the «Jamad Basketball Camps,» a camp for females in various cities to assist motivate and enhance their confidence. She was able to travel to several places across the United States to conduct basketball camps for young Muslim girls who enjoy the sport, which began in her hometown of Boston. She was able to teach and develop their talents while also giving them advice on how to better themselves on and off the court. During spring break in April 2019, the first formal camp was held in Columbus, Ohio. She performed another camp in Minneapolis, Minnesota in July because it was so popular.

She was able to do a weekend camp there and she was able to accommodate about 60-55 girls. During the December break, the third official camp was held in Toronto at the OVO Centre, where the NBA franchise, the Toronto Raptors, practice. Around 40 females of all ages attended the camp to offer their support and engage in the activities. Aubrey Graham, a friend of hers, put this together because he wanted the girls in Toronto to be able to come out and play some basketball. She also attended camps in Ohio and Boston with her college colleagues and Somali National Team teammates this past

The video and the sight of a young woman hooping in traditional Muslim dress shocked the basketball world, attracting rappers Drake, Lil Baby, and OverTime, as well as Boston Celtics standout Jaylen Brown. 54

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Fiin founded a basketball camp that encourages Muslim girls to play sports. (Photo Taken By: Stephanie B. Chang).

Boston-based Somali basketballer Jamad Fiin. (Photo credit @_jamaaad/Instagram)

Jamad Fiin in Toronto, ON Camp 2019. (Photo credit @_jamaaad/ Instagram)

Jamad Fiin; Somali-American Basketball Player Empowering A New Generation of Muslim Girls. (Photo Taken By: Stephanie B. Chang)

summer, as well as in 2020. Fiin has taught and improved the talents of young Muslim girls from a variety of locales in the US and Canada, including Columbus, Minneapolis, and Toronto. Jamad Finn has helped many Muslim girls realize that, regardless of their religion or culture, they may achieve their dreams. She wishes to continue to inspire many young women, especially in the Muslim community. StockX, an online marketplace and clothing reseller specializing in sneakers, just launched their «Built Different» campaign, which

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Fiin transformed her passion for basketball into something important in 2019, launching the «Jamad Basketball Camps,» a camp for females in various cities to assist motivate and enhance their confidence highlights trailblazing female athletes who are breaking barriers in the male-dominated sports and entertainment industries while inspiring a new generation. Jamad Fiin, the CEO/founder of Jamad Basketball Camps, a free basketball programme for young girls, is one of these ladies. Fiin has been added to StockX›s list of ambassadors. Basketball will always be more than a game for Fiin, therefore she has instilled in young Muslim girls the belief that they can achieve something on the floor. In her words; “I just want people to, if they see me with my scarf, just know that I’m a Muslim woman, I play basketball; I can do the same things that other women can do. It doesn’t matter if I’m Muslim or not. We have the same rights that other people do.”

Samir Sabri: The Benevolent Multitalented Artist By Majalla Illustration by Jeannette Khouri A broadcaster, actor, singer, and producer, these are qualities that are rarely found in one person, but his talent enabled him to break into all these fields, after he became a high-level interlocutor and an equally distinguished artist. The foregoing is a simple summary of the career of the actor Samir Sabri, who was qualified by circumstances to be present in the public sphere from various platforms, from radio, through cinema, to television. Samir Sabri had suffered health issues a few months ago, as a result of which he entered a hospital in Cairo, for precise heart surgery. He was transferred to the Armed Forces Hospital in Maadi to complete the necessary treatment after suffering a health crisis, and following President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s decision to treat him at the state’s expense. Sabri, through his long artistic and media career, achieved great popularity in Egypt and the Arab world, and also made a place for himself in the heart of show business because of his noble and humane stances with art colleagues who were left behind by the lights of glory and fame, and were attacked by poverty and disease.

HIS BEGINNINGS Alexandrian-born Muhammad Sameer Galaal Sabri studied at Victoria College and the Faculty of Arts, English Department, before going to Oxford University where he studied Shakespearean Drama. Thanks to Abdel Halim Hafez, Samir Sabri made it to cinema. He first appeared in Love Story (Hikayyet Houbb) while Abdel Halim was singing his famous song Bahlam bîk (I Dream of You), and it was in Halim’s last film Father up the Tree (Abî fawq el chagarah) that Samir Sabri played a small role.

Later, director Hassan el Emam gave him some small roles, before he was launched into main roles in A Girl Among Girls (Bint min el banât) in 1968, My Story with Life (Hikâyatî ma’a el zamân) in 1973, Bamba Kashar (Bamba Kachar) in 1974, Have Pity on Your Parents (Wa bi-l-wâliJourn ihsânan) in 1976 and The Prayer of the Ill-treated (Do’â’ el madhloumîn) in 1977. In the seventies, he presented the “International Club” program and hosted a group of stars of culture and art, including “Abdul Halim Hafez, musician Muhammad Abd al-Wahhab, and the great writer Fikri Abaza.” Sabri also presented the “Al-Meshwar” program, and it achieved the high viewership ratings, which made film production companies bet on him, and see him appealing to the audience .

HIS ARTISTIC HISTORY The artistic journey of Samir Sabri continued until the number of his films reached 145 that spanned the historical, social, national, romantic, musical and action and he co-starred with dozens of veteran stars, including Fouad Al Mohandes, Rushdi Abaza, Warda, Abdel Halim Hafez, Farid Shawqi, Nour El Sharif, and Adel Imam. Samir Sabri produced about 16 films such as Hello Captain (Ahlân yâ kabtin) in 1978, Lips that do not Know Lying (Chifâh la ta’rif el kidhib) in 1980, Hell Under Water (Gahîm taht el mâ’) in 1989 and Hell 2 (Gahîm itnîn). He is famous for his musicals and songs in his films. He lately formed a group of 45 musicians and dancers who always appear in his successful programs such as “Hadha el Masâ” and “Kân Dhamân”. In his songs he combines colloquial Arabic words with words from other languages, something that recalls the cosmopolitan spirit of Alexandria’s golden age. Indeed, Alexandrian born writer Ahmed Ragab

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refers to him as the “Ambassador of Alexandria”. Sabry played comic, musical as well as villainous roles. Among his best roles are; “Al-mahfaza ma’aaya” (I’ve got the wallet), “Al-Toot wal-nabboot “ (Bering and Clubs), and “Noshaaterokom alafraah” (Our congratulations). Samir Sabri was not satisfied with acting, but also established an art production company through which he produced several films in which he costarred, including: “Tears of Her Majesty”, “Hell Under Water”, and “The House of the Poisoned Family”, and his giving continues to this day. In recent years, he participated in a number of artistic works, including the series “Guava Theory” wit Ilham Shaheen, and “The Pleading” alongside Basem Yakhour and Farouk al-Fishawy. He presented the movie “Cairo Time” in front of Nour El-Sherif, and participated in the role of an announcer in the series “Valentino” with Adel Imam two years ago, and he is awaiting the screening of the movie “2 Talaat Harb” with Mahmoud Kabil, Abeer Sabri, Ahmed Wafik, directed by Magdy Ahmed Ali.

HIS MEMOIR The Egyptian Lebanese House recently published the memoirs of the artist Samir Sabri under the title “Tales of a Lifetime”, where the great artist reveals the scenes of half a century of art and politics. Sabri reveals the secrets of the marriage of Umm Kulthum and the jealousy of Abdel Halim Hafez towards Souad Hosny. Also, Sabri narrates a lot about the coincidences that changed his life, the secrets of his marriage, which he hid from his family, his son who left him to live in England, the stories of his love for 3 stars, and about a dilemma that made him the star media personality.

echnology

Zoom’s Next Coup? Taking Sci-fi’s Favorite Interface to the Office By Mark Wilson In Zoom’s latest update for PC and Mac, the teleconferencing company is making a subtly radical update to its interface. Now, when gesturing a thumbs up or raising your hand in a meeting, computer vision will recognize it and display the matching reaction icon on your colleagues’ screens. Could the company that took video chats mainstream do the same thing with gesture control? Perhaps. Zoom’s small feature could make gestures an everyday part of our lives— something designers and technologists have been teasing for decades, without much mainstream success. The appeal of gesture control is obvious. Rather than click buttons or tap tiny screens, you simply move your hands or body naturally as you do during conversations and real-

world activities. Ideally, gestures could remove the barriers between you and a computer entirely Researchers have been pursuing the idea, dating back to at least 1968, when scientist Douglas Englebart demonstrated “The Mother of All Demos” and unveiled the first computer mouse. Apple then built the mouse into the core UI of the Macintosh computer that debuted 1984, cementing its central role in the computing firmament. A mouse is a gesture system, of sorts, tracking your hand movements in two dimensions on a computer screen—much like a pencil on a piece of paper. Given that computer “desktop” interfaces were built upon the metaphor of a real desk filled with paper and folders, matching them with this flat control scheme made perfect sense. But people don’t live in two-dimensional worlds, so researchers continued pursuing 3D gesture systems. In 1977,

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University of Illinois scientists created a glove that could track your finger movements, which inspired a pile of strange controllers for 3D realities in the 1980s and ’90s. Minority Report (2002) stoked these embers, as Tom Cruise waved his hands around like magic to control a large holographic screen. The most successful gesture-based product of all time followed just four years later: the Nintendo Wii. The console handed you a motion-controlled remote to mime sports like bowling or tennis, and went on to sell over 100 million units worldwide. The Wii’s secret was packaging air gestures as an accessible remote control—an object that looked familiar to anyone who owned a TV—through which Nintendo essentially brought the computer mouse into the third dimension. But its usefulness was limited to gaming. And the Wiimote could really only detect relatively broad motions rather than subtle gestures that could include your fingers.

Photo credit: (Getty Images)

Photo credit: (Will Ireland/ T3 Magazine/Future/Getty Images)

Microsoft pushed the technological needle forward with Kinect, which used infrared light to actually map your body in 3D space—no remotes required. It was an initial hit, selling 10 million units faster than any electronic in history. But using the Kinect over time revealed its shortcomings: It lagged just a little behind your movements, which could be frustrating. And it revealed issues like, how do you hit a button in midair . . . if you don’t feel a button in midair? Microsoft’s solution was that you would hold your hand in one spot for several seconds, which doused cold water on the promise of natural gesture computing. Personally, I found the task far more laborious than using a mouse. Ultimately, Kinect demonstrated that, for many gestures, you need physical resistance. Imagine having a sword fight without resistance. You swing at a knight. He blocks. But your arms keep going. The experience doesn’t make any sense. Microsoft discontinued the Kinect in 2017, as it wasn’t the boon to Microsoft’s Xbox business that the company had hoped (though the 3D tracking technology

Zoom seems to have sidestepped the pitfalls of earlier gesture products, finding the sweet spot for gesture controls with its thumbs up and raised hand inside lives on, miniaturized, in Microsoft’s Hololens AR headset). Kinect’s failure didn’t stop other companies from similar efforts. Leap Motion promised to live on your desk to replace your mouse with air gestures (it had the same shortcomings as the Kinect, and while it never caught on as more than a novelty, you can still buy the product today), while Google baked its Soli radar into its Pixel phones to let you air swipe past music tracks (which felt more like swatting at flies than queuing up the next banger for your family). Now, here we are in the mighty year of 2022. We still use mice, and we swipe, tap, and flick at touchscreens. But the promise of gesturing in the air to control a computer seemed all but dead.

And then, Zoom showed up. Zoom seems to have sidestepped the pitfalls of earlier gesture products, finding the sweet spot for gesture controls with its thumbs up and raised hand. Why is this approach better than what we’ve seen? For one, many of us are already making these gestures in Zoom meetings! For whatever work culture reason, I don’t thumbs up anywhere in my life but on Zoom, where the practice is as natural as it can be—so no one needs to learn the gesture, or even know that Zoom is tracking it, for this to work. Furthermore, neither a thumbs up nor a hand raise requires physical resistance to feel good. We’ve always made these gestures in the air. But most of all, this trick solves a real problem for Zoom. Unless you are squinting at the full Brady Bunch view of participants on any given call, it’s difficult to see how people react to any question. Zoom is digitizing their reactions in a way that can be highlighted for a host—all while they’re replacing a redundant button press for the user (why thumbs up and hit a thumbs up button? It’s silly). Zoom took teleconferencing mainstream. Who woulda thunk, they may do the same thing with gesture controls next. This article was originally published by Fast Company.

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ealth

Reduce Your Fear of Falling Improving Your Balance Will Give You the Confidence to Stay Active

By Heidi Godman Falling poses a major risk for injury as we get older, and it›s no wonder that many of us have a real fear of it. Unfortunately, fear of falling often winds up increasing the chance of a devastating spill. To protect your mobility and independence, it›s important to address this fear.

FEAR FACTORS Fear of falling often develops for two reasons. One is an awareness of age-related changes. Body systems that keep you steady -- your muscles, joints, cognition, vision, hearing, nerves, and reaction time -- all start to decline. You wind up being weaker and less flexible. You might have chronic aches and pains. That leads to heightened caution. «Our natural instinct is to slow down so we don›t fall. We shuffle our feet and take shorter strides; our feet don›t clear the ground as high as they used to; walking speed slows. As that happens, we become apprehensive about taking a step,» explains Michael Clem, a physical therapist with Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital. «I have two patients with this problem right now. They tend to reach out for things and not move their feet. But trying to grab on to a piece of furniture that›s a little out of reach can make you lose your balance and fall.» A history of falls is another contributor to fear; if

you›ve already fallen, you know how quickly it happens and how easy it would be to fall again. «And when fear increases, for any reason, people don›t want to be as active as they were. That makes physical decline happen faster,» Clem points out.

REGAINING YOUR CONFIDENCE To reduce your fear of falling, you›ll need to address underlying conditions, such as poor eyesight or joint problems. It will also help to work with a physical therapist to improve your balance and gait (walking pattern). The therapist will evaluate your physical strengths and weaknesses and try to understand your specific concerns about falling. «I›ll want to know what someone is afraid of,» Clem says. «Is it stepping off a curb or a set of stairs in the backyard? We can build exercises to address that one specific issue as well as any other weaknesses.»

STARTING SLOWLY You won›t be thrown into a rigorous exercise program. «We stay in a person›s comfort zone with a program that challenges them while they still feel safe,» Clem says. «I select exercises they›ll succeed at.» For balance exercises, that could mean standing

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When fear increases, for any reason, people don›t want to be as active as they were. That makes physical decline happen faster,» your abdominal muscles. Place your right foot in front of your left foot, heel to toe, and squeeze your inner thighs together. Lift your arms to your sides at shoulder level to help you balance. Hold 30 seconds. Return to the starting position, then repeat with your left foot in front.

THE FINAL PIECE When you›re feeling stronger and more confident about performing activities without fear, you›ll focus on improving your gait.

)Photo credit: (TNS

with your arms at your sides and your feet together, with a railing or walker nearby for support. «I might have the person look left or right, and then reach for a target. This can be challenging, and they may sway, but they won›t fall. I›m right there behind them, and they can grab on to something if they need to,» Clem says. From there, you might work on standing with one foot in front of the other (see «Move of the month»), or standing on one leg at a time. Then you might try taking steps forward, backward, or to the side. As you learn to improve balance, you›ll also work on boosting muscle strength, flexibility, and range of motion. Expect a focus on the muscles in your buttocks, hips, thighs, and calves.

MOVE OF THE MONTH: TANDEM STANDING

Stand with your arms at your sides and brace

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«We use metronomes to increase walking speed. We start off with 80 beats -- and thus, steps -- per minute, which is on the low end, and work up to 100,» Clem says. «Then we work on walking with your gaze ahead of you, so you don›t look down. People start shuffling less, walking faster, and becoming more confident.» Eventually, you›ll tackle walking short distances as your physical therapist coaches you. «The goal is to get you back to being able to walk in and out of your house, through a grocery store, or into a doctor›s office,» Clem says. At that point, the course of physical therapy will end. But, of course, the real work will begin. You›ll need to continue doing strength, stretching, and balance exercises on your own. «If you don›t, your fear may return and your fall risk will increase,» Clem says. «To counter it, we›ll want you to exercise and stay active for as long as possible.» This article was originally published by Harvard Health.

pinion

Does the Dollar Dominance Matter for the US?

By Saif Al-Abri

The dollar dominance has been a matter of controversy since the last decades of the 1900s. IMF reports show that the Dollar›s share in the global foreign exchange reserve fell from %70 in 1999 to %59. This article will cover Paul Krugman›s (noble economics laureate) interesting comments about dollar dominance. He states that firstly, the dollar dominance will remain due to specific feedback loops and secondly that even if the USA dollar declines, it doesn›t matter. Both extremely controversial statements said with an assertiveness that we will investigate cautiously. Firstly, what feedback loops maintain USD dominance even when the USA›s economic commanding position has been declining for a while? The first feedback loop is that it›s easier for countries to exchange using the Dollar. For instance, for Malaysia and Bolivian, many more people want to exchange bolivianos and ringgits for dollars rather than vice versa. So, it›s easier and much cheaper to do bolivianos and ringgits transactions indirectly using the Dollar, avoiding having to exchange currency multiple times. This set of indirect exchanges Krugman says reinforces the USA dollar advantage. Another feedback loop is that many goods are priced using the Dollar, «dollar assets have predictable purchasing power. This reinforces demand for these assets, making it cheaper to borrow in dollars than in other currencies». This also sets another feedback loop: businesses will start pricing goods using the Dollar to reduce risks reinforcing the currency advantage. The first feedback loop is shaky. As

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professor Eswar Prasad mentioned in his famous book, the ‹dollar trap› is that crossborder transactions are ever becoming easier due to technological development. As such, the use of the Dollar as a means of exchange will probably further decline. However, the second feedback loop is valid as many goods such as USA government securities are priced using dollars which investors often use to safeguard investments. In addition, exportled Emerging economies continually use the Dollar to protect themselves from volatile capital flows allowing the US dollar to maintain dominance. However, as stated by Professor Eswar Prasad, we must understand that complex politics drives financial currency more than sheer economics. As such several political scenarios can lead to the decline of USD dominance even if the US dollar is considered a safeguard for economic interest. For instance, the belt road initiative or future alliance by major financial players, etc, could quickly diminish the US dollar›s role, power, and dominance. Krugman›s last statement that even if US dollar dominance falls, it doesn›t matter is entirely erroneous. As we have seen, having your currency as the dominant one is a highly lethal weapon that is constantly used for political gains. Read «America›s Misuse of Its Financial Infrastructure» by the national interest for more. In addition, it gives the US what is labelled as ‹exorbitant privilege› such as not having to pay exchange fees, allows the US to finance large current account deficits, the seigniorage it gains from circulation etc.