Lebanon's Tough Choice

A Two-Year Probe into Russia: Trump Collusion Finds None

A Weekly Political News Magazine

The End of the Road for the Iranian Regime

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Anna Jarvis: The Founder of Mother’s Day Who Fought to Have it Abolished

Issue 1741 - March - 29/03/2019

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Lebanon’ s Tough Choice www.majalla.com

Editorial It is often said that the biggest mistake a dictatorial regime can make is starving its population. This is because starvation is the breaking point that destroys the barrier of fear, as the masses feel that they no longer have anything to lose.

History’s bloodiest revolutions have been led by hungriest of people and the most oppressed of citizens. It is for this reason that it should not come as a surprise that the Iranian regime’s mismanagement and oppressive policies, which have caused nothing but misery to its people, might be one of the biggest contributors to its demise.

This week’s cover story by Hanin Ghaddar discusses the US Secretary of State’s, Mike Pompeo, recent visit to Lebanon. During said visit, he told the Lebanese government that it has a tough choice to make regarding its relationship with the Iran-allied Hezbollah. He also stated that the government needed to note the public’s desire for democracy, and how Hezbollah’s grip on the government undermines its development. While some prominent government members publicly ally themselves with the terrorist group, reports indicate that many of them have expressed frustrations with the group behind closed doors.

Joseph Braude’s article focuses on the recent revelations in the Mueller Report which found no evidence of collusion between US President Donald Trump and the Russian government. As this probe lasted two years and has been a highly contested issue, individuals across the political spectrum have had different reactions. Trump supporters celebrated the findings, while his prominent opponents asked for the publication of the rest of the report. Braude also notes how divided the government’s priorities have become, as the White House is focused on building the border wall, the Senate is focused on appointing conservative judges and the House of Representatives is focused on passing the Green New Deal.

Rawshan Qassem writes an investigative report on how the Iranian regime’s oppressive policies have led desperate Iranians to resort to desperate measures for survival. The report notes the increase of human organ selling since it was first documented back in 2007. The regime has also played a role in facilitating an easier process which allows individuals to sell their major organs such as kidneys, livers or even the cornea of the eye. The economic depression has also led to an increase in drug addiction and suicides in the country. The regime has also played a role in legalizing and facilitating prostitution as a means of allowing women to earn a living through unconventional means.

Kian Tajbakhsh argues that President Donald Trump’s Middle East policy is not as coherent as many people believe it is. While George W. Bush embraced a policy of democracy promotion and intervention and Obama was more withdrawn, Trump has pursued a policy of stimulating regional stability. As such, he has focused his attention on destroying IS and weakening the Iranian regime as he views both entities as regional destabilizers. However, the writer thinks that this confrontation with Iran will be a long game as the many opposition groups in Iran will approach the US’s advances differently; while some will welcome it others will wholeheartedly reject it.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

48 Breaking Decades of Silence on Kurdish Persecution

Issue 1741 - March- 29/03/2019

22 The Deal to End All Deals

32 18 Getting Real About Iran

32 28 Is the Risk of Ethnic Conflict Growing in Ukraine?

24 Educate to Liberate

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What a Rush!

32 Helmand’s Flower That Threatens Us All 3

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Girls collect artificial flowers from the rubble of a building destroyed by the cyclone Idai at Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Beira, Mozambique, on March 2019 ,24. (Getty)

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Iraqi Kurds light up candles in Arbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq, on March 2019 ,22, in remembrance for the victims of the capsized ferry in Mosul. (Getty) 6

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“clear that the status of Golan has not changed,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. “The U.N.’s policy on Golan is reflected in the relevant resolutions of the Security Council and that policy has not changed,” Dujarric said.

Saudi Aramco to Buy SABIC in 69$ billion Chemicals Megadeal ISIS ‘Caliphate' Defeated U.S.-backed forces proclaimed the capture of ISIS’s last territory in Syria on Saturday, eliminating its rule over a self-proclaimed “caliphate”, but the jihadists remain a threat from sleeper cells around the world. Originally an offshoot of al Qaeda, IS took large swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014, imposing a reign of terror with public beheadings and attacks by supporters abroad - but it was eventually beaten back to the village of Baghouz “We announce today the destruction of the socalled ISIS organisation and the end of its ground control in its last pocket in Baghouz,” Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) general commander Mazloum Abdi told a victory ceremony. SDF fighters, who besieged Baghouz for weeks while planes pounded from above, paraded in memory of

11,000 comrades killed in years of fighting against ISIS.

Trump Recognizes Disputed Golan Heights as Israeli Territory U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday recognized Israel’s 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights in an election boost for visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prompting a sharp response from Syria, which once held the strategic land. With Netanyahu looking over his shoulder at the White House, Trump signed a proclamation officially granting U.S. recognition of the Golan as Israeli territory - a dramatic shift from decades of U.S. policy. At the United Nations, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is

The world’s largest oil producer Saudi Aramco has agreed to buy a 70 percent stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) from the kingdom’s wealth fund for 69.1$ billion in one of the biggest deals in the global chemical industry.The agreement to help boost Aramco’s downstream growth plans comes after months of talks between Aramco and the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which contributed to the delay of Aramco’s planned multi-billion dollar initial public offering. “This is a win-win-win transaction and a transformational deal for three of Saudi Arabia’s most important economic entities,” said Yasir al-Rumayyan, managing director of the PIF.

U.S. Sanctions Firms Accused of Helping Fund Iran's Revolutionary Guards The United States on Tuesday imposed fresh sanctions on a network of companies and people in Iran, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates it said was helping to raise billions of dollars to fund the operations of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. The U.S. Treasury blacklisted 25 people and organizations, including a clutch of front companies based in the three countries, that were working on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s defence ministry to raise money for their activities. The targeted institutions include banks and other financial institutions such as Ansar Bank, Atlas Exchange, Iranian Atlas Company,

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General William Barr said in a summary released on Sunday that Mueller’s team had not found enough proof to warrant bringing charges against Trump. It marked a political victory for Trump. He quickly claimed “complete and total exoneration”, while his Democratic opponents expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome and vowed to continue congressional inquiries into his business and personal dealings.

the U.S. Treasury said in a statement.

Mueller Finds no Trump-Russia Conspiracy Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of collusion between U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia in the 2016 election, but left unresolved the issue of whether Trump obstructed justice by undermining the investigations that have dogged his presidency.

Even though Mueller’s findings on obstruction of justice were inconclusive, U.S. Attorney

May Puts her Brexit Deal to 'Last Chance' Vote in Parliament Prime Minister Theresa May puts a stripped-down version of her twice-defeated Brexit divorce deal to a vote in parliament on Friday, in an attempt to break the impasse over the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. The vote, on the day the country was originally due to exit the European Union, illustrates the depth of the three-year Brexit crisis that has left it uncertain how, when or even if the United Kingdom will ever leave. Lawmakers vote on May’s -585page Withdrawal Agreement at a special sitting, but not on the -26page Political Declaration on future relations, a manoeuvre to get around a ban on repeatedly putting the same submission to a vote. May on Wednesday pledged to quit if her deal was passed and while the sacrifice of her own premiership failed to immediately give her the numbers, there was speculation on Friday that she may have won over greater numbers of detractors.

Earth orbit with a ground-to-space missile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, hailing his country’s first test of such weaponry as a breakthrough establishing it as a military space power.India would be the fourth country to have used such an anti-satellite weapon after the United States, Russia and China, according to Modi, who heads into general elections next month. “Our scientists shot down a live satellite 300 kilometers away in space, in low-Earth orbit,” Modi said in a television broadcast.

“India has made an unprecedented achievement today,” he added, speaking in Hindi. “India registered its name as a space power.” Anti-satellite weapons permit attacks on enemy satellites, blinding them or disrupting communications, as well as providing a technology base for intercepting ballistic missiles. Such capabilities have raised fears of the weaponization of space and setting off a race between rivals.

Modi Hails India as Military Space Power After Anti-Satellite Missile Test

Cholera Cases Jump to 138 in Mozambique's Beira After Cyclone

India shot down one of its own satellites in low-

The number of confirmed cases of cholera in the cyclone-hit Mozambican port city of Beira jumped from five to 138 on Friday, as government and aid agencies battled to contain the spread of disease among the tens of thousands of victims of the storm.Cyclone Idai smashed into Beira on March 14, causing catastrophic flooding and killing more than 700 people across three countries in southeast Africa. Many badly affected areas in Mozambique and Zimbabwe are still inaccessible by road, complicating relief efforts and exacerbating the threat of infection. Although there have been no confirmed cholera deaths in medical centers in Mozambique yet, at least two people died outside hospitals with symptoms including dehydration and diarrhea, the country’s environment minister Celso Correia said.

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Lebanon’s Tough Choice Pompeo Warns Beirut 10

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«They understand -- President [Michel] Aoun, the foreign minister -- they both understand the need for Lebanese freedom, democracy, independence, sovereignty,» Pompeo said.

While still in Tel Aviv, Pompeo praised the announcement as «historic» and «bold,» agreeing in an interview with the Christian Broadcast Network that the US President might have been sent by God to protect Israel.

On the first day of his visit to Beirut, Washington hit Iran with new sanctions. The Treasury Department said the sanctions target 31 Iranian scientists, technicians and companies affiliated with Iran›s Organization for Defense Innovation and Research, which had been at the forefront of the country›s former nuclear weapons program. Officials said those targeted continue to work in Iran›s defense sector and form a core of experts who could reconstitute that program.

These two events are probably not coincidences.

They were meant to mark Pompeo’s visit with efficiency and credibility. The US wanted to send clear messages to its allies in Tel Aviv, and to its adversaries in Lebanon, mainly Hezbollah and Iran.

THE MESSAGES WERE WELL RECIEVED

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) meets with Lebanon›s President Michel Aoun (R) at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of the capital Beirut on March 2019 ,22.

(Getty)

By: Hanin Ghaddar

The press conferences and the pro-Hezbollah bravado we heard from Foreign Minister Gibran Bassil, President Aoun, and Speaker Nabih Berri, were all expected and presumed. But slogans aside, it was clear that Hezbollah’s allies were not very comfortable with what they heard from the US Secretary of State.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s warning to Lebanon was controversial, as expected. It came amidst two major events. The night prior to his Beirut trip, US President Donald Trump declared US recognition of Israel›s sovereignty over the Israelioccupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War, and later annexed.

Although Bassil denied that Hezbollah was a terrorist group, and said that it «enjoys a wide popular base,» Pompeo said in his interview with Sky News Arabia that the Lebanese leadership [all of it] agreed with him about Hezbollah. «They understand -President [Michel] Aoun, the foreign minister -- they both understand the need for Lebanese freedom,

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democracy, independence, sovereignty,» Pompeo said.

This statement probably refers to what Pompeo heard from them privately, which contradicts the official press releases they gave afterwards. This is also not surprising, knowing that many of Hezbollah’s allies have criticized the party in private meetings.

For example, the WikiLeaks documents show that Speaker Berri not only has viciously criticized Hezbollah, but also suggested ways of containing or weakening the party of god, during his meetings with the US ambassadors.

Hezbollah’s allies usually complain about the party to American officials when they feel the pressure.

They have done so after the Cedar Revolution of 2005, the July war of 2006, and the May events of 2008. If they are also complaining today, it means the Aoun, Bassil and Berri are feeling the pressure, as the US is putting serious pressure on the president, foreign minister, and prime minister to find ways to distance themselves from Hezbollah. This might also encourage some leaders and parties that are not part of this camp to speak up more forcefully.

MORE SANCTIONS? These pressures could also be combines with threats that these allies might have heard from Pompeo – and other US officials – of more sanctions.

The US is determined to intensify the sanctions against Iran and Hezbollah, now that there are signs that they are working and hurting. However, future sanctions might start going beyond the tight Hezbollah circles and target Hezbollah’s allies.

“Lebanon faces a choice: bravely move forward as an independent and proud nation, or allow the dark ambitions of Iran and Hezbollah to dictate your future.”

These are ideas that many policy makers in Washington are already discussing and pushing.

If one also looks at the second round of HIFPA sanctions against Hezbollah, there are clear hints at Hezbollah’s allies such as Berri, Aoun, and others from the Free Patriotic Movement, Amal Movement, and the Syrian Socialist National Party (SSNP).

So far, Hezbollah’s allies have been able to reap the benefits of Iran’s friendship and patronage, without having to pay a price for it. The US administration also understands that Hezbollah wouldn’t have won the recent parliamentary elections and formed the government without these allies. The time for these to pay the price might be approaching, and Pompeo’s message on sanctions was very loud and clear in Beirut.

“Lebanon faces a choice: bravely move forward as an independent and proud nation, or allow the dark ambitions of Iran and Hezbollah to dictate your future,” Pompeo told the Lebanese during a press

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A picture taken on March 2019 ,26 shows a partial view of the Saar Falls in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights (Getty)

Hezbollah. Sanctioning a few might send a message, and Pompeo might have made that warning.

There is also the question of how Hezbollah will deal with this escalation and warning. The party’s finances are already in a very bad shape and they can barely pay salaries to their employees and fighters.

Pompeo promised more sanctions and financial pressure, which will make their financial situation even worse.

Hezbollah has a two-fold plan that requires time and patience, although not guaranteed to succeed.

One, Hezbollah will try to compensate their lack of funds by trying to tap into the funds of Lebanon’s state institutions. The problem with that plan is that Lebanon’s economy is already in a very bad shape and there might not be any more funds for Hezbollah to tap into. Channeling funds from state institutions to their own institutions is also going to be a dangerous attempt as all eyes are now monitoring Hezbollah’s handling of their ministries and the ministries headed by their allies.

As this endeavor could prove too complicated and risky, Hezbollah will have to make do with what they have – in addition to what they can get from Iraq – to survive these sanction, and the upcoming ones. conference. However, this was mostly seen as a message to Lebanon’s leadership.

MOVING FORWARD Pompeo’s warning was heard loud and clear. Lebanese leaders understand the repercussions of allowing Hezbollah to control Lebanon’s state institutions.

The question is two-fold: one, will Hezbollah’s allies decide to jump ship to protect themselves – and their businesses – from US sanctions? And two, even if they do want to jump ship, can they? That is, would Hezbollah allow it?

Hezbollah’s allies and their businesses are probably too tied to Hezbollah’s industry. They made their money because of the business deals that Hezbollah allowed and facilitated. Jumping ship might also mean sacrificing their businesses and assets.

They might be too deep in. The only way to force Hezbollah’s allies to make this “sacrifice” is to make them realize that there is a price for allying with

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Second, Hezbollah’s main plan is to wait. Pompeo promised more sanction, but they also know that this administration will have to face presidential elections in November 2020. Iran and Hezbollah have decided to wait these sanctions out for the time being, until the 2020 elections.

If Trump loses the elections, and a Democrat wins, Iran and Hezbollah hopes that the US will re-enter the nuclear deal agreement JCOPA. Sanctions could be lifted and Pompeo’s warning might become ineffective. However, if this administration gets another four years term, Iran might have to reconsider a number of issues, including its behavior in the region.

Some observers close to Hezbollah do not even believe that the party and its sponsors in Iran could actually last until 2020 – financially speaking. A collapse might be sooner than we think.

Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute.

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A Two-Year Probe into Russia: Trump Collusion Finds None The conclusion of the Special Counsel’s investigation ends a contentious chapter in American history while opening the door to new turmoil.

by Joseph Braude

Mueller’s full report.

In May 2017, the U.S. Attorney General’s office authorized a sweeping counterintelligence investigation into Russian government interference in the 2016 presidential election.

At its heart was the charge, widely touted by opponents of President Trump, that the latter’s presidential campaign, and perhaps even the president himself, colluded with Russia to win.

Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi took the lead: “Attorney General Barr’s letter raises as many questions as it answers,” she stated. “The fact that Special Counsel Mueller’s report does not exonerate the president on a charge as serious as obstruction of justice demonstrates how urgent it is that the full report and underlying documentation be made public without any further delay.”

Nearly two years later, the investigation — dubbed the “Mueller probe,” after its special counsel, former FBI chief Robert Mueller — has concluded with a finding of no collusion. The Special Counsel also declined to accuse the president of obstruction of justice, an allegation that had been anticipated by the president’s critics — but asserting that the decision was not an exoneration.

This outcome has raised questions about next steps for the president and the opposition, as well as a measure of soul searching among media and the public at large.

TRUMP’S OPPONENTS SHOW A MIX OF OUTRAGE AND UNCERTAINTY Several leading Democrats, blindsided by the report’s apparent vindication of President Trump’s repeated claims that there had been “no collusion” with the Russian government, channeled their energy into calls to release

Democratic Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren swiftly echoed Pelosi’s call, tweeting that “Congress voted 0-420 to release the full Mueller report.

Not a ‘summary’ from his handpicked Attorney General.

AG Barr, make the full report public. Immediately.”

Other Democratic officials, such as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee Jerry Nadler of New York, took a different tack. Citing “very concerning discrepancies and final decision making at the Justice Department following the Special Counsel report, where Mueller did not exonerate the President,” Nadler called on AttorneyGeneral Barr to testify before Congressional committee.

Numerous leading Democrats and progressives expressed incredulity at the report’s findings, or rejected them outright. Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, on the day following the Mueller report’s release, told a crowd that President Trump had “beyond the shadow of a doubt… sought to collude with the Russian government.” He

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U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the U.S. Capitol alongside U.S. Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (L) and Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) (R) before joining Senate Republicans for their weekly policy luncheon March ,26 2019 in Washington, DC. (Getty)

later added that he was “looking forward to reading” the Mueller report in its entirety, and expressed hope that “every American who so choosed [will] be able to read it as well.”

Progressive media outlets voiced outrage. MSNBC host Chris Matthews remarked, “We were told for weeks by experts you cannot deal with an obstruction of justice charge without getting to motive. You can’t get to motive unless you hear from the person himself who’s the target of the investigation…how can they let Trump off the hook?” The same night, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow appeared to verge on tears during her broadcast, before shifting to criticism of past dishonesty on the part of President Trump and his associates: “if everything was on the up and up, why lie? What should we read into the fact that the President was lying about his efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow during the campaign?”

TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS: JUBILATION AND CALLS FOR REVENGE Among conservatives and Republicans, the President Trump’s vindication of charges of collusion prompted

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Nearly two years later, the investigation — dubbed the “Mueller probe,” after its special counsel, former FBI chief Robert Mueller - has concluded with a finding of no collusion. widespread celebration. Trump supporters across the country held impromptu celebrations, including a “No Collusion Day” rally in mid-town Manhattan.

Republican congressman Mark Meadows tweeted that “after 22 months of a special counsel and 2 years of congressional investigations, it’s over. The clock has finally struck midnight on the ‘Russian collusion’ fantasy.”. In a similar vein, Senator Lindsey Graham called it a “Good day for the rule of law [and a] great day for President

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Trump and his team. No collusion and no obstruction. The cloud hanging over President Trump has been removed by this report.”

counterintelligence investigation, it’s pretty much been swept under the rug. Those days are over,” Graham said.

“I’m going to get answers to this.”

Editor of the influential conservative National Review magazine Rich Lowry, heralded the news as a rebuke to anti-Trump forces in American media, tweeting that “the three biggest losers from the Mueller report in order—the media, the media, the media. It was obsessed & hysterical for two years, constantly suggesting the smoking-gun Russia revelation was just over the horizon, sometimes supporting its wished-for conclusion with erroneous reporting.”

Presidential adviser Kellyanne Conway issued a more pointed critique, calling for several Democratic officeholders to resign. Speaking on Fox News this Monday, she demanded that "those who let this lie fly for two years, haranguing and harassing and trying to embarrass, and worse, those of us who worked on the 2016 campaign, beginning with the president and his family, really do owe America an apology." She took specific aim at Adam Schiff, the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee: "He ought to resign today,” she said. “He’s been on every TV show fifty times a day for the last two years promising Americans that this president would be impeached or indicted."

Numerous leading voices took the occasion to demand renewed investigations into Senator Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama’s role in setting in motion the Mueller probe. Conservative writer Michael Goodwin, writing in the New York Post, asked, “Was the initial decision to investigate Trump’s campaign an honest mistake by the Obama administration? Or was it an attempt to rig the election in favor of Clinton, and when that failed, overthrow a duly elected president? Those outstanding issues are as worthy of complete answers as those that Mueller investigated.”

Senator Graham, giving a press conference on Capitol Hill, proposed a counter-investigation by a “Mueller-like figure’’ tasked with investigating attempts by senior FBI officials to harm the Trump campaign in 2016. “When it comes to the FISA warrant, the Clinton campaign, the

The implications of the Mueller probe outcome for the 2020 Presidential elections are not yet clear, owing partially to the fact that the report in its entirety has not yet been released.

THE ROAD TO 2020: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT ELECTIONS The implications of the Mueller probe outcome for the 2020 Presidential elections are not yet clear, owing partially to the fact that the report in its entirety has not yet been released. As noted by Yuvan Levin, a prominent but Trump-skeptical conservative author, “We are not at the end of the Mueller drama. We are in an interlude created by the Attorney General’s decision to summarize the report for the public before releasing it.” Levin argues that Mueller’s tentative exoneration of President Trump will make it “harder to revive the passion of the partisans” but that “depending on the details and arguments in the report, it may turn out to be harder to revive one side’s passion than the other’s—and it isn’t obvious right now which that would be.”

Barring any new revelations from the fuller contents of Mueller’s report, Washington remains locked in a stalemate that gives every sign of persisting until 2020.

Since January, the White House has focused its energies on a policy agenda item — building a wall on the USMexico border — which is mired in legal challenges and budgetary battles. On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Congress remains bitterly divided. The Republican-held Senate is occupied chiefly with appointing conservative judges anathema to liberals,

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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) answers questions during her weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol March ,28 2019 in Washington, DC. Pelosi answered a range of questions centered primarily around the investigative report

by Special Counsel Robert Mueller that was handed into the Department of Justice last week. (Getty)

while the Democratic-held House of Representatives exerted considerable effort over the past three months pursuing Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s “Green New Deal” agenda, despite little chance of its enactment into law.

In this environment, political analysts are uncertain how salient the effect of the Mueller report will ultimately be on the 2020 elections, though few doubt it redounds to Trump’s benefit. Prominent statistician and elections analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight contends that “where this will help Trump the most is not with traditional swing voters but with Trump-skeptical Republicans. Even Republicans who don’t love Trump tend to be critical of the news media, and they’d already thought that the media was devoting too much attention to Russia-related matters.... While this isn’t a huge group of voters, every little bit helps in an election that could shape up as another 50-50 affair.”

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“The three biggest losers from the Mueller report in order—the media, the media, the media.”

Democratic strategists largely concur, and have taken the occasion to argue that Trump’s opponents should seek new avenues to critique Trump. Hank Sheinkopf, in an interview with The Hill, argues that “beating the Mueller drum is not going to work unless there is new information.”

Julie Roginsky, another Democratic strategist, notes that March 22 “was a good day for the White House, in the sense that it got to define the narrative early. It’s not necessarily a long-term victory. … I don’t know we have all the information yet.”

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Getting Real About Iran It’s Not an Existential Threat or an Ally in the Offing

By Kian Tajbakhsh* U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has singled out Iran as a uniquely dangerous regional actor that must be confronted for the sake of peace and stability in the Middle East. In the last year alone, the administration of President Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, announced its intention to reduce the U.S. troop presence in Syria and the wider region, and pushed for what Pompeo has called an “Arab NATO” to stand against Iran’s regional advances. Such policy shifts have led critics to question the administration’s true intentions toward Iran. Some wonder whether U.S. policy in the Middle

East possesses any coherence at all, while others are certain that the administration’s real agenda is to instigate a war for regime change in Tehran. Neither interpretation fully fits the facts, and both fail to account for the evolution of U.S. Iran policy over time.

The Trump policy is not as inchoate as it appears. Nor is it a simple reversal of former President Barack Obama’s program: “isolate and roll back” as opposed to “embrace and empower.” In truth, U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran has rested not on a single objective—whether confrontation or engagement— but on the relative weight accorded to four different priorities.

These include nuclear non-proliferation, regional stability and

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counterterrorism, human rights and democracy inside Iran, and the normalization of U.S.-Iranian bilateral relations. Shifts in U.S. policy and differences between administrations are best seen as differences in emphasis within this grid.

Former President George W. Bush, for example, favored democracy promotion and nuclear non-proliferation. By contrast, Obama wagered on normalization, such that he was willing to make concessions on the nuclear issue. Now the Trump administration has shifted the priority to regional stability, which includes combating Islamic extremism, a term that Trump applies to Islamic Iran just as much as to the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) or the Taliban. Trump’s overriding objective is to negotiate a new deal with Iran that stops its “malign” influence in the region and blocks its ballistic missile program, something increasingly worrying the Europeans as well.

Washington’s new emphasis on regional security and its efforts to contain Iran largely fit the circumstances, although its alienation of European allies has been counterproductive. The administration would do well to keep its regional strategy in focus and to be distracted neither by calls for military regime change nor by pleas to preserve the nuclear deal at all costs.

A New Priority

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks to students at the American University Cairo, in the eastern suburb of New Cairo, east of the capital on January 2019 ,10.

(Getty)

In the last two years, Washington has made an abrupt pivot, but not an irrational one. The Trump administration rightly saw a low return on investment in the Iran deal. The sunset clauses were in fact so short that they will soon expire, and the makers of any new deal will have to renegotiate them anyway. The administration’s claim that this defect justified scuttling the deal has been unconvincing. But the deal did nothing to address Iran’s regional role, and negotiating it even as Iran entered Syria suggested that the United States had bowed to pressure to turn a blind eye on such activity. Moreover, the current administration is right to discern no appetite for normalization in Tehran. In fact, after four decades of revolutionary fervor, the regime’s power centers, notably the military-security establishment and seminaries, are radicalizing rather than moderating. Tehran’s disinterest in further engagement was evident even before Trump took office, when Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei moved swiftly to squash any hope that the nuclear agreement would open the way for future talks on other issues.

Trump has abandoned normalization and made countering Iran’s regional advances an overriding priority. He declared Iran a rogue state and a threat to regional peace and security in 2017.

The following year, he withdrew the United States unilaterally from the nuclear deal. In a speech in Cairo just this January, Pompeo announced that preventing the emergence of an Iranianled regional order was at the very center of the United States’ Middle East strategy. And the United States has taken steps that reflect this reordering of priorities.

Together with the Polish government, the Trump administration organized a conference on Middle East security in Warsaw this February with the clear intention of mobilizing an international coalition to repel and disrupt Iran’s regional influence. When

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Now the Trump administration has shifted the priority to regional stability, which includes combating Islamic extremism, a term that Trump applies to Islamic Iran just as much as to the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) or the Taliban.

European allies balked at the program, the organizers expanded the scope of the conference. But the meeting’s core objective all along was, as Pompeo put it, to “get Iran to behave like a normal nation.” The following week, the United States hosted senior officials from six Gulf states plus Egypt and Jordan to discuss a new security arrangement, the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), also dubbed “the Arab NATO”—an initiative Trump first announced during his visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017.

Warsaw and MESA are critical steps toward creating a security architecture intended to compensate for a reduced U.S. troop presence in the region. The approach is consistent with the administration’s larger strategy of offshore balancing and its insistence that local actors take greater responsibility for their own security, and it shows that the administration has focused above all on checking Iran’s power in the region. Ultimately, Washington seeks to strike a new deal addressing this concern.

Pompeo has more than once enumerated 12 criteria Iran must meet in order to become a “normal” member of the international community and have all U.S. sanctions removed. From this list, variously articulated, it is possible to discern the relative weight given to others among the four priorities. Domestic reform does not rank high. The United States, under Trump, would like Iran’s people to have greater political liberty and more economic opportunity at home, but neither democracy promotion nor nation building will be a U.S. priority (a central point of Trump’s 2017 UN General Assembly speech). Interestingly, the Kabuki show around Iran’s nuclear program that preoccupied previous administrations has become remarkably muted—probably because the issue was never as pressing as it was made out to be, given that Iran remains many years away from an effective nuclear arsenal even if it wished to weaponize.

Instead, Pompeo has proclaimed the paramount U.S. goal to be “expelling every Iranian boot from Syria”—a particularly improbable aim given Iran’s victorious campaign there.

Nonetheless, Trump’s Iran policy, centered on the broader objective of regional stability, takes account of realities that tend to be ignored by those invested either in preserving the nuclear deal at all costs or in ginning up conflict with Iran.

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NO CALL FOR WAR In 2011, President Obama, together with European allies, said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must go. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said Assad must stay. Eight years later, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Assad have won. (Russia entered the fray only later.) What is more, by consolidating an armed proxy state on Israel’s border intent on Israel’s destruction, Iran’s regime has pulled off a feat of geopolitical hardball so audacious that even Israel has been forced to accept Hezbollah’s existence as the status quo. Accordingly, U.S. policy must be based on a realistic assessment of Iran’s asymmetric capabilities, which cannot be measured solely in conventional military terms.

The United States is increasingly unwilling to commit to openended, large-scale military engagements in the Middle East (its track record with such engagements is in any case not encouraging). So isolating and containing Iran may indeed be the most feasible option still available. Given that Iran does not pose an existential threat to the United States, Washington has little incentive to do more than this. Only a colossal Iranian miscalculation could provoke the administration to recalculate the political costs, at home and abroad, of seriously pursuing regime change.

Indeed, absent a new congressional authorization for the use of military force, overriding the current law that explicitly prohibits an attack on Iran, it is hard to envisage an anti-Iran military strategy beyond outsourcing to regional partners. The U.S. Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM, together with a few strategically located bases, should furnish quite enough police power to protect U.S. regional interests, which include protecting allies and partners, securing the flow of oil and gas supplies to world markets, and countering Islamic terrorism. Any greater commitment would risk embroiling the United States in regional disputes that ultimately depend on local actors to resolve.

There are many more reasons to avoid a war with Iran than there are to stoke one. The Middle East’s regional drama does

In a speech in Cairo just this January, Pompeo announced that preventing the emergence of an Iranian-led regional order was at the very center of the United States’ Middle East strategy.

not pose an existential threat to U.S. security. Western powers have struggled to find a constructive way to resolve the tensions between the region’s major players and to counter Russia’s renewed influence in the Middle East. But the intended goals of any direct intervention are likely to be frustrated, and in the meantime, intervention will probably make things much worse (the Iraq debacle springs to mind). For all these reasons, the United States would be unwise to risk being pulled into a fullscale hot war with Iran by exaggerating the threat the country poses.

Nor do Iran’s actions justify undermining important U.S. alliances, as Vice President Mike Pence did in Warsaw by issuing ultimatums to European allies to leave the Iran nuclear deal. Not only are multilateral institutions central to securing U.S. interests in today’s multipolar era, but more pertinent, the United States will need the help of its partners in Europe and elsewhere if it is to achieve its goals for regional peace. Demonizing Iran may have the advantage of providing cold war–type clarity, but it obscures the other objectives that shape U.S. policy toward Iran and distracts from such imperatives as crafting a long-term strategy toward China and Russia.

THE LONG GAME An Iran-centered Middle East strategy should rest not only on a realistic assessment of Iran’s military capacity but also on an understanding of the country’s internal landscape that accounts for how different Iranian groups will respond to U.S. overtures.

There is no serious constituency inside Iran that welcomes American help. In fact, many of the regime’s domestic opponents advocating for greater freedoms—even those languishing in jail or in exile—recoil from U.S. offers of help. They do so not so much because they hate the West, although most Islamists, many leftists, and a surprising number of secular nationalists do. Rather, the Muslim world is exceptional in its need to come to terms with the modern world

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US President Donald Trump holds up a map detailing territory losses by the Islamic State in Syria as he speaks following a tour of the Lima Army Tank Plant at Joint Systems Manufacturing in Lima, Ohio, March 2019 ,20.

(Getty)

uninhibited by foreign, and especially Western, influence.

The turmoil that engulfs the Middle East is deep-rooted, and the transformation it is undergoing is too profound and complex to be susceptible to engineering by outside powers. Twenty years of expended blood and treasure by the United States should be testament enough to this stubborn fact. At least since the dawn of the twentieth century, the entire Middle East has struggled to recover from the trauma of the collapse of the Ottoman caliphate.

After World War I, the peoples of this region were left to search for a place in the modern world compatible with still potent traditional identities and values and somehow consonant with a history of world-historical significance.

Revolutions and upheavals have buffeted the region for more than a century—from the 1906 and 1979 revolutions in Iran to the Arab Spring in 2011, to name only a few. The forces involved have included a complex mix of nationalist revolt against foreign and colonial domination, social revolt against domestic depredations in governance and economic justice, an enormous upsurge in religious fundamentalism, and, most recently, new demands for popular voice and the accountability of rulers. All of these impulses are modern, emanating from a worldwide political awakening of populations seeking to shape their own future. Yet because the Islamic Republic styles itself the torchbearer for one of “the last civilizational holdout[s] against western power,” the United States should gauge the pace of internal change in Iran in generations, not years.

U.S. retrenchment from democracy promotion worldwide may be bad news for those Iranian democrats, both inside and outside the

The United States, under Trump, would like Iran’s people to have greater political liberty and more economic opportunity at home. country, who are striving for a more liberal society open to the Western world. But given the democracy agenda’s current defeat in Iran—along with many others, I was arrested and detained in Iran for years for advocating democratic reforms—the United States has little choice other than to play the long game and hope a new vision will emerge from a future generation that embraces both normalization and human rights.

There is no guarantee that successfully pushing back against Iran’s regional advances will lend support to such a new vision, but for now a regional containment strategy occupies the space of greatest overlap between Western capabilities and realities on the ground. *KIAN TAJBAKHSH is a Fellow at the Committee on Global Thought and Senior Adviser to the Executive Vice President for Global Centers and Global Development at Columbia University.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

President Donald J. Trump signs a National Security Presidential Memorandum as he announces the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal during a 'Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action' event in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House on Tuesday, May ,08 2018 in Washington, DC. (Getty)

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The Deal to End All Deals Can Trump Start a New Chapter in the Middle East

by Dennis Ross *

The Trump Administration continues to say that it intends to come out with its peace plan soon, presumably after the Israeli election. How soon may depend on the outcome of the election. I say that because while the Administration has held discussions with Prime Minister Netanyahu on its ideas on peace, it has not had any discussions with Benny Gantz who could emerge as the Israeli prime minister. Regardless, the representatives of the Administration say the plan will be presented soon.

to provide serious American monies, no one else is likely to provide much—and this president does not relish providing foreign assistance, whether in direct dollars or credit or risk guarantees. In other words, while the economic component may well have interesting potential, it will not be easy to persuade skeptics that it will actually materialize. It will be up to the Administration to show very tangibly how its economic objectives are actually going to be implemented.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated this again in recent testimony before the Congress, also repeating a basic theme: the old parameters did not work in producing peace so the Administration’s plan is trying something different. Without revealing the specifics of the plan, Administration officials have indicated two areas of potential difference from the past. First, that the plan will be detailed; they speak of a fifty-page document so that everyone can see what peace would actually look like. The officials say that past efforts have been about principles or parameters and no one could really say or judge what they might mean in practice.

The Trump plan is apparently designed to show what would happen and how people would actually benefit. Second, and related to this point, there is a serious economic component to the plan, designed not just to help the Palestinians but the Jordanians, Lebanese and Egyptians. There would be a heavy emphasis on infrastructure development, with the aim of producing significant economic benefits over a period of time.

How about the impact of a much more detailed plan? This, too, might have potential, particularly if it portrays a picture of addressing genuine needs in a realistic fashion. There is something to the argument that with parameters on borders, security, Jerusalem and refugees, the parties might not fully grasp how they would be fulfilled in practice. That said, having helped to draft the Clinton parameters, I can say that they certainly provided guidelines that the parties could judge. Still, I take the point that spelling out everything in more detail leaves less to the imagination and interpretation.

Do these new elements really represent a profound change from the past efforts? Having an economic component is not new. The size and scope of the investments the Administration has in mind may well be new. The question, however, will be can the Trump Administration deliver on its economic targets. There have been plenty of donor conferences where the pledges or promises were rarely fulfilled. Moreover, if Trump is not prepared

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Of course, much will depend on what the detail actually is. Knowing the parties as I do, I have a strong expectation that they will have comments and questions on nearly every sentence in the -50page plan when they get it. That, alone, could produce long discussions on the preferred meanings of each sentence, necessitating negotiations that surely will take time. Perhaps, that is part of what the Trump Administration intends; after all, while President Trump may speak of the “ultimate deal,” the aim of the plan seems to be to get the Israelis and Palestinians to resume negotiations and a diplomatic process on this basis.

That would be an achievement but it does not mean an agreement would emerge any time soon.

Even more to the point, the notion that the -50page plan will let both Israelis and Palestinians see what an agreement could look like might be worthwhile—

A photo taken by Anadolu Agency photojournalist Mostafa Alkharouf on October 2018 ,05 shows Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount), including Qubbat al-Sakhrah (Dome of the Rock) of Al-Aqsa Mosque Compound during the sunrise in Jerusalem. (Getty)

but no one should think that either side is going to dispense with what they think is essential. For the Israelis, security is the key. Is it still in their hands? Will they retain overriding security responsibility until such time that the Palestinians have demonstrated that they can fulfill all their obligations— and that their state will not be a failed state where Hamas or even al Qaeda could take over? That suggests criteria of performance and not a specific timeline of withdrawal or for Palestinian assumption of the Israeli role. Of course, there is also the issue of Jerusalem, will Israel accept anything less than sovereignty over the Temple Mount/Haram?

And, what about the Palestinians and the Arabs, can they accept anything less than sovereignty on the Haram/Temple Mount? Similarly, can the Palestinians accept anything other than a state? Can Arab leaders? And, won’t they insist on a capital for the state in Arab East Jerusalem?

My point here is not to outline the bridging proposals on each of these issues. (For example, on the Temple Mount/ Haram at Camp David in 2000, I suggested this was a unique site on the planet, with it being holy to two different faiths, and as a result, sovereignty should belong to God with the day to day jurisdiction divided.) Instead, my aim here is to show that no matter the plan and its length, there is no getting around what each side defines as essential. Yes, they should evaluate everything in terms of what they are getting

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While President Trump may speak of the “ultimate deal,” the aim of the plan seems to be to get the Israelis and Palestinians to resume negotiations and a diplomatic process on this basis. and the benefits of that, but in the end, they will still want to be able to say they got they believed what was necessary on core issues.

In short, I agree that no one should prejudge the plan before it is presented. It may well have innovative features, but in the end it will still be judged on how it deals with the core issues of borders, security, Jerusalem and refugees.

And, by definition, both sides will have to compromise on some of what they want and even believe that they need.

Sticking to slogans will mean little and not serve either side, while being able to get enough to justify compromises will remain the key to an agreement.

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Educate to Liberate Open Societies Need Open Minds

By Carla Norrlof* A populist wave is sweeping the Western world. In Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland populist parties and candidates have entered the government. In France, Germany, Greece,

the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, they have won record levels of support and reshaped the political landscape. What makes these victories so disturbing is the characteristic that unites all populists: their rejection of liberal values. If the world once seemed to be moving

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There is a lot of evidence that the best way to promote liberal values is by giving more people more education. problem head-on, by fostering more liberal attitudes. There is a lot of evidence that the best way to promote liberal values is by giving more people more education. In every place where populism is surging, the main determinant of whether someone holds liberal values is his or her level of education. Higher education emphasizes equality, tolerance, and critical thinking; those without access to it are far more likely to oppose liberal values and practices.

Since the 1990s, American college graduates have held more liberal positions than non-graduates on a wide range of issues. But simply sending more people to college is only the first step. To truly instil liberal values throughout society, universities will also have to live up to those values themselves—rooting out discrimination, overturning traditional academic hierarchies, and breaking up networks of power and patronage that too often keep the connected in and the deserving out.

EDUCATION’S EFFECTS

Students of the British De Montfort University in Leicester visiting Berlin wave flags of Germany and Britain as they pose at Berlin's landmark the Brandenburg Gate on June 2017 ,14. The students aimed 'to set an example against compartmentalisation and apportionment in case of a hard Brexit that will endanger the good academic exchanges with other European universities'. (Getty)

inexorably toward greater political and economic freedom, human dignity, tolerance, equality, non-discrimination, open markets, and international cooperation, all are now under threat. That is bad enough, but the decline of liberalism will have consequences beyond a few individual countries.

Because the countries that uphold the liberal international order are turning against liberalism, they risk undermining the order they built, ushering in a more antagonistic and dangerous world.

Politicians and pundits have suggested many different responses to the populist phenomenon: reducing inequality, protecting major industries from international trade, curbing immigration. But these are all indirect solutions. The best way to counter the populist trend is to address the underlying

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That means focusing on education. Although the educational divide started to matter in national politics only recently, researchers have long found that the more educated a person is, the more likely he or she is to adopt liberal social views.

What accounts for that correlation is less apparent. Some argue that more liberals go to college in the first place, although there isn’t much evidence for that. Others emphasize education’s direct role in teaching rational thinking and changing attitudes. What’s clear is that higher education militates against simplistic thinking, undermines stereotypes, opens people up to other points of view, and encourages them to tolerate social differences.

In the United States, according to polls by the Pew Research Center, a college education increasingly correlates with sympathy for the Democratic Party. According to those polls, in 39 ,1994 percent of those with a four-year college degree identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, and 54 percent identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party. Today, those figures are reversed. Given the Democratic Party’s growing association with liberal values, the partisan effect of education goes some way toward demonstrating universities’ liberalizing effect.

Attending college does more than increase people’s tendency to affiliate with the Democratic Party. It also

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makes people more likely to tolerate different political views. College-educated liberals have warmer attitudes toward conservatives than non-college-educated liberals do.

The same is true of conservatives’ attitudes toward liberals.

More education could possibly ease the current crisis of polarization.

On top of its liberalizing effect, higher education also seems to lead people to support the economic policies, such as free trade and high levels of immigration, that form the foundation of the global economic order. There’s also some evidence of a correlation between higher education and direct support for the liberal international order. In a 2013 survey of nine countries (not including the United States), people with college educations were between 24 percentage points (in Turkey) and ten percentage points (in the United Kingdom) more likely to support the UN than those without college degrees. Regardless of whether overall support was high, as in Germany, or low, as in Pakistan, the educational divide persisted.

It’s possible that’s in part because a college education equips people for jobs that aren’t subject to competition from foreign workers, immigrants, or robots, so college graduates have less reason to oppose international flows of goods and people. But that would not explain why graduates hold more liberal positions in areas unrelated to the financial benefits of the liberal international order, such as freedom of speech, which, according to polling by Gallup, is supported by 73 percent of American college students but only 56 percent of all American adults.

Given education’s liberalizing effect, the first step in promoting liberal values should be expanding access to education. Countries should dedicate more resources to their universities and give more people access to them. The U.S. government spends less than one percent of GDP on higher education, putting the United States 21st on that score within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2015. It lagged behind not only European

What’s clear is that higher education militates against simplistic thinking, undermines stereotypes, opens people up to other points of view, and encourages them to tolerate social differences.

countries, such as Norway (1.7 percent), but also emerging economies, such as Costa Rica (1.6 percent) and Turkey (1.2 percent). The United States makes up for its lack of public spending by having the highest level of private spending on higher education. But it still ranks only fifth in terms of the share of adults with college degrees. (Canada, where in 57 ,2017 percent of adults had attended college, ranks first.)

FIXING HIGHER EDUCATION Sending more people to college is important, but the influence of higher education matters beyond the raw number of students. Since elites in almost every section of society have college degrees, universities have an outsize effect on culture, politics, the economy, science, and public policy.

Throughout history, education has promoted liberal attitudes, but it hasn’t done so consistently. Independent thought and deference to authority have always coexisted uneasily in higher learning. From Plato’s philosopher kings, to the emergence of higher education under the influence of Christianity in the eleventh century, to the Enlightenment of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, to today,

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The planet Earth painted on the face of a female participant to protest against climate change.

(Getty)

entrenched hierarchies and stale dogmas have always interfered with the search for truth.

To cultivate an enlightened society, higher education needs to get serious about upholding liberal values. Many institutions of higher learning pledge to act as vanguards of liberalism in their mission statements. Beneath the surface, however, they look very different.

For starters, although almost all universities in Canada and the United States commit themselves to non-discrimination, the academy is rummaging in the dark when it comes to understanding and fighting for it. Explicit racism and religious intolerance are now thankfully rare. But many people with higher levels of education show other racist tendencies, particularly toward blacks, such as making negative assumptions about them, discounting their expertise, excluding them from professional opportunities, and retaliating against them. Even when universities recognize the problem, rigid hierarchies can prevent them from holding people accountable. In some ways, the system is set up for failure. Universities and professional associations rely on fellow academics to adjudicate grievances. But it’s absurd to ask peers who may be seeking a research connection, publishing opportunities, or a job

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with the alleged perpetrator to determine wrongdoing.

Problems also arise because discrimination is rarely public; rather, it takes place behind the scenes, making it hard to document. Most administrative activities in academic departments, such as assessments of scholarly work and the decisions of hiring and promotion committees, operate under codes of strict confidentiality, further complicating efforts to document bias. If academics truly want to fight discrimination, they shouldn’t look for a smoking gun; they should ask whether a similar person from a different race or religion would have suffered similarly.

Universities are also stiflingly hierarchical. Senior administrators reflexively stand by those below them, so academics who allow discrimination to persist are usually supported all the way up the chain. And they can easily take cover under the principle of academic freedom, which often comes into conflict with that of freedom from discrimination. There’s an easy fix for this: hold senior administrators accountable whenever lower-level officials fail to prevent discrimination.

Finally, universities must put an end to the clubby attitude that excludes far too many people from professional opportunities. Exclusive networks, especially those within predominantly ethnically or religiously homogeneous groups, subvert norms of equal treatment and opportunity. They encourage their members to close ranks when challenged, making it nearly impossible to end discriminatory practices. Even scholars who are not trying to circle the wagons have a hard time imagining someone they know, like, and respect acting in a discriminatory way.

Things are moving in the right direction. Within the American Political Science Association, the leading professional organization of academic political scientists, for example, minority representation is far higher among those under 24 34( percent) than it is among those over 75 (five percent).

But there is still a long way to go. Lack of inclusion is not just a generational problem, and institutions cannot police diversity into existence. Academics, senior administrators, professional associations, and journal editors, however, can all do more to encourage it, by holding minorities to the same standards as everyone else.

By broadening access to higher education and living up to the liberal values in which they claim to believe, universities have a chance to help save those values in society at large. That will play a crucial role in preserving the liberal international order. It’s not enough for citizens and policymakers to defend democracy and economic openness. The order cannot survive in societies that allow discrimination to go unchecked. *CARLA NORRLOF is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto.

This article was originally published in the March/April 2019 issue of Foreign Affairs Magazine and on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Is the Risk of Ethnic Conflict Growing in Ukraine?

New Laws Could Create Dangerous Divisions 28

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President Petro Poroshenko is lagging in the polls behind Volodymyr Zelensky, a television actor whose only political experience consists of playing the president of Ukraine in a sitcom. reached 13,000, one-quarter of them civilian.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine’s leading presidential candidates are all running on platforms resisting Russia. The choice is logical given popular anger over President Vladimir Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and continued interference in Donbas. But Poroshenko differs from other candidates in that he couches his anti-Russian message in a national identity incorporating elements of Ukrainian ethnicity. Whereas his campaign slogan in 2014 was “A New Way of Living,” his current slogan is “Army! Language! Faith!”

Ukraine’s population is culturally diverse. A significant number of citizens identify as ethnic Russians, and an even larger number—nearly half of the population—are Russian speakers. Given the persistence of the crisis in the east, is there a danger that cultural identities and practices will become politicized and lead to ethnic conflict?

Although such an outcome is still unlikely, several new government policies could lead cultural identities to be redefined in a way that divides citizens where formerly no division existed. This development could both worsen political polarization and bolster Putin’s claims that Russian speakers and ethnic Russians face discrimination in Ukraine. These are precisely the claims that Ukrainians across the political spectrum knew to be untrue—until recently.

THE ROLE OF IDENTITY A clear symbol in one of Donetsk's park of DPR's inclination toward Russia. The War in Donbass region of eastern Ukraine has caused at least at least 10,000 deaths and 1.4 million people displaced from the home since the start of the conflict in March 2014. (Getty)

By Elise Giuliano* The Ukrainian presidential election is only weeks away, and its outcome is highly uncertain. President Petro Poroshenko is lagging in the polls behind Volodymyr Zelensky, a television actor whose only political experience consists of playing the president of Ukraine in a sitcom. The country will head to the polls while still at war in its eastern region of Donbas, where in 2014, local separatists forcibly seized government buildings and declared people’s republics in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Since then, the conflict has taken on elements of both a civil war and an interstate conflict, with Russia arming separatist combatants and sponsoring the breakaway regions.

Violence is muted but steady: the number of deaths recently

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Analysts often refer to Russians in Ukraine as an ethnic minority. But this term is a red herring. The Russian minority in Ukraine does not exist as a bounded, culturally distinct group within a larger population, in the way that one typically conceives of an ethnic minority. Rather, the category of personal ethnicity in Ukraine is a legacy of Soviet state policies.

These policies assigned ethnic identity to citizens at birth and made them report that identity when applying for jobs or spots in higher education. The Soviet Union also established its 15 republics as internal national homelands, each named after the dominant nationality—i.e., Ukraine for Ukrainians. Thus, the Soviet state promoted a system of ethnic classification at two levels: an ethnocultural/personal level and a territorial level.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, ethnic identities have not become politicized in Ukraine. To the country’s great

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credit, upon winning independence the government did not condition citizenship on cultural practice or ethnic ancestry.

It allowed people the freedom to choose personal identities, religion, and language. Unlike in the Baltic states, citizens after 1991 were not forced to learn the new state language (i.e.

Ukrainian) in order to win the right to participate in politics.

Instead, most Ukrainians living in the east and south of the country continued to speak Russian, whereas those living in the west continued to speak Ukrainian. At the same time, the Ukrainian language, which had been subordinated to Russian during the Soviet era, was introduced gradually into primary education so that today, most Ukrainians are bilingual Ukrainian and Russian speakers.

Nor do ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians form selfenclosed groups. Cultural boundaries are faint and porous due to a common Eastern Orthodox religion and Slavic culture, similar languages, and shared practices deriving from a recent history as Soviet and post-Soviet citizens. Ukrainian-Russian intermarriage is commonplace. Moreover, since the 1990s, experts have observed a shift in what Ukrainians consider their salient identity. More and more people consider themselves Ukrainian based on their citizenship and regardless of their ethnicity. This trend has accelerated in the five years since the Ukraine crisis began.

In short, the country’s cultural policies have been flexible and gradualist, and the identities and cultural practices associated with them are very fluid. In the words of one citizen whom I interviewed in 2017: “Identity? I don’t know. Probably Ukrainian, but it’s all mixed up. So many people have lived here historically that it’s all melted together. A pure nation doesn’t exist anywhere in the world.”

Donbas is one of eastern Ukraine’s Russophone regions and also the one with the highest percentage of people (approximately 41 percent) who identify as ethnic Russian or mixed Russian-Ukrainian identity. As a result, many observers label the entire region “pro-Russian” and write it off as politically disloyal.

THE PERILS OF POLARIZATION All of these factors make ethnic polarization or conflict unlikely in Ukraine. Yet continued harmony among the country’s ethnicities is by no means guaranteed. People start to perceive ethnic boundaries when politicians and opinion leaders stigmatize certain cultural practices and attributes as immoral or alien. Unfortunately, recent Ukrainian government policies may have begun to do just that.

In 2017, Ukraine’s parliament and president passed a Law on Education that bans the use of minority languages for instruction in schools after the fifth grade by 2020. The goal of the law is to expand the use of Ukrainian language throughout the country—a worthy goal. It means, however, that the approximately 621 Russian-language schools, 78 Romanianlanguage schools, and 68 Hungarian-language schools in Ukraine will have to adapt quickly or face penalties. Moreover, one provision of the law allows certain subjects at Ukrainianlanguage schools to be taught in European languages, such as Hungarian and Romanian, but not in Russian—eliciting charges of discrimination from the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission.

In addition, the Ecumenical Patriarch in Istanbul recently granted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church autocephaly, or independence, from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church–Moscow

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Ukrainian entertainer and presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelensky performs on stage in western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod, on February 2019 ,9. (Getty)

in Ukraine. Before the crisis began, political opinion among Donbas residents reflected a geopolitical orientation toward Russia: most people favored Ukraine’s membership in the Russia-backed Customs Union rather than the European Union. Then, local activists staged the separatist rebellion that led to the establishment of the breakaway republics and, subsequently, to war. Donbas is one of eastern Ukraine’s Russophone regions and also the one with the highest percentage of people (approximately 41 percent) who identify as ethnic Russian or mixed Russian-Ukrainian identity. As a result, many observers label the entire region “pro-Russian” and write it off as politically disloyal.

But this misses the diversity of political attitudes there.

Consider that support for separatism was not the dominant political opinion among residents of Donetsk and Luhansk before the war started in spring 2014; slightly less than a third of residents backed separation from Ukraine. Moreover, my research found that the political attitudes of ethnic Russians were divided on most issues related to separatism, such as perceptions of linguistic discrimination. In turn, many ethnic Ukrainian respondents also supported separatist issues, albeit not in numbers as large as the Russians. All of this means that political opinion in Donbas was not polarized along ethnic lines. People who identified with different ethnicities did not have diametrically opposed worldviews.

Patriarchate (UOC–MP), which is affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church. With that, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church went from being one of four Orthodox churches in the country to the national church of Ukraine, leading churchstate relations in Ukraine to resemble those in Russia, where the institutions are conjoined and the church often acts as a political arm of the state.

Although most of Ukraine’s population does not attend church, the political symbolism of this break with Russia is as profound as it is popular. Poroshenko, who led the push for autocephaly, describes the achievement in overtly political terms, as “a question of our independence, national security, statehood, a question of world geopolitics.” But as the separation of church and state in Ukraine comes to an end, many will doubtless wonder what it means for the significant number of people who continue to be members and clergy of the UOC–MP. There is a danger that both the state and society at large will perceive their membership in a church controlled

by Moscow as amounting to political support for Russia and disloyalty to Ukraine.

DONBAS AND THE PATH FORWARD There is also a danger that the war in Donbas—now in its fifth year—could contribute to the politicization of ethnicity

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Unfortunately, it is unclear whether this is still the case in Donbas after five years of war. Given the Russian disinformation campaigns and the ongoing violence, local authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk have been politicizing both Russian and Ukrainian culture and identity. Still, Alexander Hug, former deputy chief monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, has not observed an ethnic or religious “undercurrent group dynamic” as in other conflicts and notes that “up to 40,000 Ukrainians cross [the] contact line every day.” He also believes, however, that intergroup conflict is likely to develop the longer the violence persists.

There are, to be sure, Ukrainian citizens with Russian identities who have welcomed Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. But at this critical period for the country, its political and cultural leaders should not inadvertently further Putin’s goals of fomenting identity-based conflict by equating Russian cultural practices and affinities with a lack of loyalty to Ukraine. The people of Ukraine long ago moved beyond a simple RussianUkrainian dichotomy—in their identities, their everyday practices, and their political attitudes. Now it’s time to see whether Ukraine’s leaders can keep up with them. * ELISE GIULIANO is a Lecturer in Political Science and the Harriman Institute for Russian, Eurasian, and East European Studies at Columbia University.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Helmand’s Flower That Threatens Us All

A Peace Deal With the Taliban Should Address Afghanistan’s Rampant Opium Trade

By Matthew S. Reid* and Cybele C. Greenberg* A peace deal in Afghanistan may be on the horizon. The latest round of high-level negotiations between the United States and the Taliban ended last week in Doha without a formal agreement, but with cautious optimism on both sides. If the U.S. envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, gets the deal he reportedly seeks, all parties in Afghanistan will observe a general cease-fire, the United States will withdraw its forces, the Taliban and the Afghan government will open a dialogue, and the Taliban will pledge to harbor no foreign terrorist organizations on Afghan soil.

These developments are, in theory, encouraging: the United States’ longest war may finally be coming to an end. But in practice, the peace negotiations are unlikely to achieve Washington’s main national security objective in Afghanistan— preventing the formation of a terrorist safe haven—if they do not include a plan to directly address the country’s opium problem.

The Afghan drug economy is thriving. Although the United States has spent almost 9$ billion to stem narcotics production over the course of the war, the most recent UN survey reports that

opium cultivation in Afghanistan is at its second-highest level since 1994. Largely based in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, along the irrigated shores of the Helmand River, this multibillion-dollar trade has turned the country into the “opium capital of the world.” The industry makes up half of Afghanistan’s GDP and provides roughly 85 percent of the world’s opium.

Most important, the drug trade is a cash cow for terrorists. Its steep profits make up 65 percent of the Taliban’s revenues and line the pockets of several other groups that the U.S. State Departmenthas designated as terrorist organizations. Al Qaeda’s ties to Taliban-owned poppy fields are well documented. The Haqqani network, one of the biggest threats to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, receives its funding from taxes levied on the opium trade. Other regional players, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, have made billions by allowing drug routes to pass through their territories.

Ending the fight against the Taliban will not solve Afghanistan’s opium problem. It is naive to believe that the Taliban, weakened by significant losses on the battlefield and U.S. strikes against its senior commanders, will be willing or able to keep other groups

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An Afghan farmers harvests opium sap from a poppy field in Zari District in Kandahar province on April ,9 2018. (Getty)

off the poppy fields. If anything, the power vacuum left behind by a war-weary Taliban will likely draw new terrorist groups to the region. The appeal of large swaths of ungoverned land and a high-margin, illicit cash crop is hard to beat.

Beyond attracting terrorist groups, Afghanistan’s opium trade breeds political corruption among the government officials, warlords, and insurgent groups who compete to control it. By monopolizing the country’s most fertile agricultural arenas, it also creates economic stagnation, further destabilizing the region and leaving the population vulnerable to terrorist infiltration.

Put simply, Afghanistan’s terrorism problem cannot be separated from the opium that is its lifeline. A sustainable peace agreement cannot pass this issue over. Any future U.S. negotiations with the Taliban must include a long-term, multilateral counternarcotics strategy that tackles the issue at its political and economic roots.

The U.S. delegation should ask both the Taliban and the Afghan government to prioritize counternarcotics operations in areas where there is active support from local leadership. Recent military campaigns, such as Operation Iron Tempest, have shown that without such support, air strikes and raids on Taliban drug

U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad speaks during an exclusive interview following his meeting with Special Envoy of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin in Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov (not seen) in Ankara, Turkey on February 2019 ,22. (Getty)

production facilities achieve very little.

On the economic front, U.S. negotiators should work with international organizations to help integrate Afghanistan’s economy into the licit global marketplace. The biggest criticism of U.S. efforts to eradicate opium cultivation in the “Golden Crescent” region has been that much of the rural population depends upon these crops for basic economic sustenance. In 2004, Khalilzad, then the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, and Ashraf Ghani, then Afghanistan’s finance minister, both opposed Secretary of State Colin Powell’s aerial defoliation plan, warning

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If the U.S. envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, gets the deal he reportedly seeks, all parties in Afghanistan will observe a general cease-fire, the United States will withdraw its forces, the Taliban and the Afghan government will open a dialogue. that it would likely engender “widespread impoverishment.” A more sustainable strategy would gradually shift Afghanistan’s agricultural output to high-value alternative crops such as rice and tap into the country’s undeveloped mineral resources. It should also support large infrastructure projects that leverage Afghanistan’s fortuitous geographic position at the nexus of global trade routes, such as the planned TAPI pipeline connecting Turkmenistan and India In the late 1990s, the Taliban became the only Afghan regime to have successfully banned the cultivation of opium, reducing harvests by 96 percent in a bid for international aid and recognition. The U.S. delegation to the current peace talks should push for another such ban prohibiting both the selling and the cultivation of opium. Simultaneously, the United States should commit to working with regional allies to monitor and counteract trafficking in the region. India, for example, has a particularly strong interest in stabilizing Central Asia given the Taliban’s ties to Pakistani terrorist groups and rising tensions in the Kashmir Valley.

Opium containment is not a detail to be left out of U.S. negotiations with the Taliban. Rather, its inclusion could make the difference between a peace agreement that sticks and one that holds the line only until the next bad actor seizes control of the lucrative drug trade. Colombia provides a pertinent object lesson in this regard. When that country’s 2016 peace accords began to unravel, new terrorist organizations resurged around the cocaine industry. The long-term success of U.S. counterterrorism efforts is thus inseparable from the project of responsibly transitioning a drug-based economy away from its illicit produce. By preventing the funding of terrorism abroad, we thwart its attempts to reach us at home.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com. *MATTHEW S. REID is a Colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps and a current Military Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He served as Deputy Commander for Task Force Southwest in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province from 2017 to 2018. *CYBELE C. GREENBERG is a Research Associate at the Council on Foreign Relations focused on international economics.

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Iran Under Pressure From Multiple Vectors On March 26, following weeks of warnings by senior Trump administration officials, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a new round of sanctions targeting 25 individuals and entities in Iran. The main targets include a network of front companies that, according to the Treasury Department, have transferred over a billion dollars to the IRGC and the Iranian Ministry of Defense, as well as procured millions of dollars’ worth of vehicles for the Iranian military. In a statement posted to the Department website, Treasury claims the new round of sanctions ”exposes an extensive sanctions evasion network established by the Iranian regime, which it increasingly relies on as the United States’ maximum pressure campaign severely constricts the regime’s sources of revenue.”

Commenting on the measure, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said, “We are targeting a vast network of front companies and individuals located in Iran, Turkey, and the UAE to disrupt a scheme the Iranian regime has used to illicitly move more than a billion dollars in funds.” He added that the U.S. would continue to maintain “maximum pressure” on Iran “while the regime funds terrorism and other destabilizing activities across the region.”

by Joseph Braude

BOLTON VS POMPEO: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DIVISIONS OVER WETHER OR NOT TO GRANT WAIVERS

Within the upper echelons of the Trump administration, senior officials appear to be debating whether or not to constrict access to the Iranian economy still further. The administration has until early May to decide whether or not to renew waivers to eight governments -- China, India, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Greece, South Korea and Taiwan -- allowing them to continue buying Iranian oil without financial penalties.

National Security Adviser John Bolton and officials in the Energy Department are reported to be advocating wtithin the administration to cut off the waivers. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iran special representative Brian Hook, for their part, are said to have cautioned President Trump that the sudden removal of 1.1 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from the market could lead to a price spike.

Joining the former camp, Senator Tom Cotton tweeted on March 18 that “the Iranian regime uses its petrodollars to fund terrorism and sow chaos throughout the region. Going forward, the proper amount of oil exports from Iran is zero.”

FRANCE BANS FLIGHTS FROM MAHAN AIRLINES

On March 25, authorities in France announced the country was banning flights in and out of the country

by Mahan Air, Iran’s first private airline and the largest of the country’s fleets of commercials aircraft.

Paris has accused Mahan of transporting military equipment and personnel to Syria and other war zones.

The decision comes on the heels of Germany’s decision to ban the airline in January. «We knew of their activities from our own intelligence services and after the German move it was a question of credibility,» said a French diplomatic source.

FACEBOOK ANNOUNCES CRACKDOWN ON IRANIAN NETWORKS

In the same week as the American and French decisions, Facebook announced a largescale purge of accounts “engaging in coordinated inauthentic behavior” on behalf of Iranian government entities. The company’s head of cybersecurity policy released a statement on March 26th declaring that the company had removed 513 pages, groups, and personal accounts “as part of multiple networks tied to Iran” which “operated in Egypt, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Kashmir, Kazakhstan or broadly across the Middle East and North Africa.” The removed accounts specialized in repurposing and amplifying content from Iranian state media over regional conflict zones. The move may be the first of further measures by the technology giant toward Iranian information warfare online.

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The US and France unveiled new sanctions against Iran this week, as Facebook announced a massive purge of fraudulent accounts linked to Iranian information operations abroad.

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The End of the Road for the Iranian Regime Tehran’s Government Extorts People with Starvation Erbil: Rawshan Qassem According to Iranian regime officials selling organs have become an everyday occurrence. However, there’s more to this story than meets the eye and documentary filmmaker Nima Sarvestani can attest to that as he was the first to expose organ trade in Iran and has since been banned from entering the country.

His documentary, titled Iranian Kidney Bargain Sale, received critical praise across many international film festivals and won Best Documentary at the 2007 Monte Carlo Television Festival.

It was also broadcast on European TV stations such as Arte, ZDF and, Swedish TV 1. Despite its global exposure it was banned in Iran.

When Sarvestani first produced his first documentary on the subject matter back in 2007, he did not imagine that selling your kidneys would one day become routine in Iran as some people even seek to sell their liver, cornea, bones and bone marrow. He knew that the phenomenon had become a national crisis when he saw a social media ad selling a heart.

BODY ORGAN AUCTION Banning the documentary in Iran does not hide the truth. Selling human organs online and through auctions has become the new norm in Iran. Moreover there are a myriad of poster ads plastered all over city walls and as well as online ads flooding the Iranian information super highway.

“The kidney and liver market has been active for many years now,” Sarvestani told Al-Majalla. However, Iranians have now

also resorted to selling parts of the liver, cornea and heart as means to overcome poverty, suffering and misery.

He pointed out that buying and selling human body organs are not done secretly since it is an open trade on Iranian streets, where you can bargain on human organs until a price is agreed upon.

“Signs of starvation begin when a poor person writes information about his blood, age and telephone number on walls, electricity poles or on a poster,” he explained, stressing that the increasing phenomenon of selling kidneys in Iran is frightening as ads for this trade can even be seen even on the walls in front of hospitals where kidneys are transplanted.

“A young man and a woman were among my documentary characters, and I accompanied them in their journey through the kidney auction.”

He said his documentary’s scenes are now replayed every day in real life but in a more horrifying and miserable way. “Young women and men carry signs all over the cities offering their kidneys for sale.”

Some even offer a deal by introducing themselves in streets.

“Instant offer! Kidney for sale, young man, 22 years old ... healthy ... blood type O positive ... Phone number: 09122 ...,” one man was cheering.

“Every 10 minutes, a young woman or man shows up selling his or her kidney. They are very ordinary people, victims of social misery caused by the social and economic policies imposed by the Islamic regime over four centuries. These policies have affected all levels of society and caused the emergence such an abnormal phenomenon,” Sarvestani said.

He also described what he saw, saying “In a recurring scene, sellers try to get better prices while others are disappointed by

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Posters on the streets of Iran's provinces on Women's Day, calling on women to free themselves from masculine authority and the mullahs' regime

lower interest rates.”

“People wait in line on different floors within the clinic and in the narrow, confusing corridors either to fill in forms and answer questions or to undergo tests and X-ray examination. Everyone is so active, reports are filled, the patients’ pictures are attached on small cards and the phones rings non-stop,” this is how Sarvestani described the scene.

“I followed every step in the process of organ trading. The desperate traders first meet with the Dialysis and Transplant Patients Association (DATPA) and their journey ends with operation time during which a piece of their body will be removed in a ridiculous trade,” he noted.

“Today we can even find people who sell their heart in Iran.

What hurts the most in the process of selling human body organs and auctions is that people do it to earn a living. Unemployed and poor youth s resort to selling their body organs and stand in queues to do so all just to earn an almost decent living. These are the people who are the most affected by the economic pressure and difficult living conditions.”

AS EASY AS BUYING POTATOES

“Buying human organs in Iran has become just as easy as buying potatoes,” stressed Sarvestani.

“Those who sell their kidneys or any other body organ are either unemployed, drowned in debt or have family problems.”

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Iran is one of the world’s largest human organ markets. Selling organs for profit is legal and organized by the government itself.

“People all around the world sell their kidneys because of their financial needs, and that’s a fact. However, the funny thing about this country is that its authorities consider it normal and always find justifications instead of addressing the causes.

“Instead of resorting to illegal acts such as stealing or smuggling, people pay off their debts and, above all, they are helping to save another person’s life, authorities say,” according to Sarvestani, who said they also don’t consider it an exploitation since the end result is good for both the seller and buyer.

Iran is one of the world’s largest human organ markets. Selling organs for profit is legal and organized by the government itself.

An estimated 100,000 kidneys were sold in one year alone.

Iran, currently, is the only country in the world that allows the sale of one’s kidney for compensation (typically a payment). It also allowed kidney donations from corpses or live donors in exchange for money.

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The sharp devaluation of the Iranian currency over the past year has led to a hike in prices, especially on products that depend on imported goods during their manufacturing process In 2000, its parliament enacted a law that would justify the purchase of organs from people diagnosed with brain death.

Charity Association for the Support of Kidney Patients (CASKP) and Charity Foundation for Special Diseases (CFSD), which are affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Health, organize the sale of organs with the government’s support.

On the left side of Tehran’s Vali al-Asr’s Square, there is an alley in which its walls are full of graffiti advertising body parts for sale. The organs listed for sale are often kidneys, corneas of the eye or livers. These ads are not only placed on walls but also on social media.

DATPA is officially responsible for the supply and demand process. People who want to sell their kidneys or those with brain death who want to donate any of their body parts are usually put on its list. Thus, patients can review this party and add their names to the waiting list. However, those who are starving to death cannot survive waiting on such a merciless list.

“Brokers of human organs,” who have become a mafia in the Iranian society, exploit those who suffer from poverty, hunger and the lack of basic needs. Those disenfranchised individuals

are forced to sell their organs, but these “brokers” often buy these body parts for low prices.

The World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations strongly oppose trafficking in human organs and believe that traffickers exploit human organ sellers. These organizations add that this exploitation will lead to increased high risk surgeries in Iranian hospitals.

A SMALLER BASKET OF GOODS Statistical Center of Iran announced that inflation rate for the fiscal year, which ended in February 20, has amounted to 42.3 percent.

The country’s Central Bank has officially been banned from publishing its reports on inflation and price hikes while the Statistical Center, which is known to manipulate data, was allowed to publish its latest results.

The inflation rate during the period from January 21 to February 2019 ,20 was 42.3 per cent, according to the Center.

The sharp devaluation of the Iranian currency over the past year has led to a hike in prices, especially on products that depend on imported goods during their manufacturing process. This affirms that the greatest pressure was experienced by citizens’ in their livelihood, food and beverages compared to the same month last year, indicating a decrease of the basic basket of goods by 62.8 percent. In other words, people’s dining tables has become smaller by 62.8 percent. (Mardomsalari Newspaper, February 21) Wages and salaries received by 50 million Iranian workers do not fulfill more than 28 percent of their basic needs. According to Iranian newspapers, the country’s workers receive the lowest salary in the world.

Under the minimum wage bill approved in 2018, the minimum wage paid for Iranian workers is 1,115,140 tomans. As of the writing of this article, one US dollar is 12,000 toman as such the Iranian worker’s salary amounts to $ 92. At its current rate, the average minimum wage in Iran is among the lowest in the world.

According to unofficial statistics, 19 million people live in extreme poverty in Iran, which is one third of the urban population and %25 of the country’s total population.

Iran ranks fourth among the top 10 most vulnerable countries to natural hazards in the world.

What is worse is that Iran suffers environmental problems such as drought and severe structural earthquakes. Observers believe many of these problems are due to the regime’s wrong policies, faulty management and planning, and rampant corruption.

LEGALIZING PROSTITUTION Moussa al-Sharifi

According to a feminist activist who preferred not to be named, the most dangerous phenomenon facing today Iran is the destruction

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Organ trade poster advertising the sale of Kidneys.

Organ trade poster advertising the sale of Liver.

Organ trade poster advertising the sale of Hearts.

Organ trade poster advertising the sale of Eyeballs.

of the family unit.

“Every month a report is published on prostitution in Iran,” the activist told Al-Majalla, “prostitution has become widespread in Iran’s cities bordering Iraq or in the city of Mashhad which is visited mostly by Iraqi youth.”

“Deputy Tourism director of Iran’s Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization admitted that the fall of the Iranian riyal has led to an increase in the number of tourists arriving from Iraq by 90 percent,” the activist pointed out. The activist added that the Deputy didn’t reveal the risks increased Iraqi youths arriving without their families.

“This painful reality can’t be denied,” she added. “We must admit that our deteriorating social conditions have allowed the legitimization of sexual services via marriage.”

“Unfortunately, the Iranian regime has worsened all social and structural issues in the country. There are shocking statistics published by Iranian press agencies on addiction, theft, corruption and prostitution.”

Head of Iran’s Social Workers Association, Dr. Mousavi Chalak, said that 49 people an hour are jailed in Iran, which equates to 1,176 people per day.

Among every 100,000 people in the world, 140 are in prison, he explained, adding that in Iran, however, out of every 100,000

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Wages and salaries received by 50 million Iranian workers do not fulfill more than 28 percent of their basic needs. people, 270 are in prisons.

“There are 4.4 million addicts in Iran too, which is the main problem and the reason behind the social damages occurring.

“After drug cases, violence cases constitute the largest number of judicial proceedings in the country as the number of violence cases in the Iranian courts amount to 15.4 million,” Chalak said.

He further noted that according to the Ministry of Health, six million people suffer depression in Iran, and the family unit is in danger of completely collapsing.

According to the Ministry of Health’s latest statistics, one in every four marriages ends in divorce.

“This means that one-quarter of married couples end up divorcing. This family disintegration will result in prostitution not only among girls but also among married women whose husbands force them into prostitution.”

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Al-Majalla magazine had previously did an investigation in which outlined the process of legitimizing prostitution in Iran, and published leaked documents on this issue.

According to the published documents, in 1993 Iran’s Ministry of Interior initiated a project on temporary marriage. In 1994, the so-called Islamic Group of Advocates in Qom prepared a draft law for the first time. This law would pave the way for a national project of “pleasure women” and called the project Chastity Houses. The group then sent the draft to a large group of scholars and clerics who fill influential political positions.

The draft law, which was later leaked to media, provoked a controversy, especially among the reformist movement. It included means of creating chastity houses, and explained that the purpose of their establishment is to combat indecency, illicit relations between men and women and sexual diseases, mainly AIDS. According to the project, the proposed Chastity Houses will give people wishing to have a temporary marriage certain facilitations, such as: - Staying married for the period agreed upon between the “couple,” from one hour to 99 years.

- Granting the “couple” a formal license to be able to book rooms in hotels.

- Subjecting those wishing to have temporary marriage to specific medical tests on a regular basis. Thus the couple will have medical certificates clearing them of any sexually transmitted diseases.

These houses are supervised by bodies consisting of one of the mosques’ imams, a representative of the city’s governor, a commander of the security forces, a merchant and a doctor.

The one willing to get married pays a symbolic reward as a contribution to cover the costs of housekeeping.

Regarding women who are allowed to get married in these chastity houses for a temporary period of time, few hours, days or years, the document said they should be: widows, working females who

don’t want a permanent marriage, women who suffer a deficiency or illness that prevents them from having a normal marriage or girls who live away from their parents, such as students.

The only condition for men is the possession of a medical certificate that proves that they don’t suffer sexual diseases.

Moreover, they have to pay the symbolic reward for the chastity house. News reports uncovered 32 Chastity Houses in one year alone. The reports also revealed that the Chastity Houses were well known for prostitution services in Tehran, Hernadi and Kian Shar. Some women even go there just to earn a living.

The activist wondered why “authorities ignored all this obscenity and instead resort to persecuting and arresting female activists who challenge the mullah’s laws by not wearing the hijab.

“Why does the regime encourage prostitution and even legitimize it?” She asked.

Iranian female activists have lately resorted to social media platforms to protest laws forcing them to wear hijab in Iran.

A prominent Iranian lawyer, known for defending Iranian women activists against the imposition of headscarves, faces up to 34 years in prison and 148 lashes, according to Amnesty International.

The international organization sent a letter to new Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi, asking him to immediately release Sotoudeh, 55.

The Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) said the trial would take place in a judicial process that lacked international standards.

Mass Suicides Nima Sarvestani

Unemployment rates and inflation in Iran have increased, leading

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The regime’s mismanagement has wasted people’s funds with its sick sectarian wars and its projects in support of terrorism.

Jahankir Abdulhai

to a large increase in suicides.

Ilam Province recorded the suicide of one third of its population.

Iranian authorities have shed light on this growing phenomenon in the Kurdish city and revealed that it ranks first in the number of suicides in Iran and the world. The rest of the Kurdish provinces of Ilam and Kermanshah have the highest rates of suicide in the country.

In an interview with Al-Majalla, Head of Kurdistan Human Rights Society (KMMK) Jahankir Abdulhai said everyone knows that official and governmental statistics, which are provided solely for normalizing deteriorated economic conditions, do not involve the whole truth.

“It is the conflict between Khamenei and Rouhani, that is, figures reveal that what is published about the disastrous reality in Iran is only in the context of the ongoing conflict as citizens are among the least concerns of the ruling regime,” Abdulhai stressed.

“For example, Khamenei and his group-affiliated newspapers published a significant increase in the food prices.”

“The price of one kilogram of red meat was 35,000 tomans in 2017 – 2016; however, today the price of the same one kilogram exceeds 120,000 tomans. While chicken costs 15,000 tomans. As such, buying meat has become a thing of dreams for Iranians of poor and middle classes.”

The war between Khamenei and Rouhani is focused on blaming each other, thus worsening the situation in light of the living crisis caused by the devaluation of the toman.

The workers’ purchasing power has fallen by more than 90 percent in the past six months, and food prices hiked by more than 100 percent, according to official figures. This led to protests,

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workers strikes and truck owner strikes all across Iran.

Abdulhai noted that the Iranian regime’s policies have marginalized Kurdish and other minority regions. Citizens in these areas suffer from funding cuts that affect their livelihoods, development, education and politics. Furthermore, these provinces receive the least government budget shares.

Based on suicide and drug statistics, Abdulhai explained that according to KMMK, 13 suicides have been reported early 2019, five of whom were women, five were men and the rest were children.

“But in 5000 ,2018 people tried to commit suicide in Iran. As in previous years, Ilam continues to have the highest suicide rate as 800 Ilam residents took their own lives. Lorestan, Kermanshah and Urmia have the highest suicide rates after Ilam.

“All this is due to deliberate government failure and the absence of any plan to stand up against this dangerous phenomenon that disrupts our societies’ structure and of which the regime itself is responsible for.”

“Deteriorating living conditions is the biggest cause of suicide in Iran.”

He also pointed out that narcotic abuse is another factor leading to suicide, and even in this regard, the government has done nothing to counter the spread of drug abuse among youth. Instead, it contributed to the rapid spread.

In Sardasht, a small area in Iranian Kurdistan, there is 158 narcotic production centers. Most of these centers are run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) or the Pasdaran.

Abdulhai concluded his remarks by saying that the day to day life of a common Iranian doesn’t differ from that of Syrians or Yemenis who are living in war-torn countries.

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“The war is being waged in their territory and the Iranians are paying the price. There are victims from the three countries, and the reason is a regime whose greed has no limit.”

“A distinct terrorist regime,” he stressed.

PRICE HIKE THAT DOESN’T INCLUDE DRUGS According to official Iranian regime statistics, there are more than 2.8 million addicts in Iran. But, other observers note that the number of drug abusers in the country is much higher than the figures published by the Iranian regime. These same observers were surprised that the price of drugs in Iran has not risen despite all the unrest in foreign exchange rates and the extreme hike in prices in the Iranian market.

Government institutions say 65 percent of marital disputes and 55 percent of divorce rate are due to drug addiction. They added: - 50 percent of addicts started taking drugs between the ages of 15 to 19 years.

- Three percent of addicts are illiterate - 15 percent are in elementary school - 15 percent are in junior high school - 41 percent in high school - 17 percent are in universities More and more Iranians are abandoning traditional drugs in favor of industrial drugs. Large quantities are manufactured in laboratories and mines. “Crack, “shisha” and “antidotes” are the most common drugs in Iran now. Crystal meth has also become the most expensive drug among all types of drugs in the country, and it is purchased the mostly by the rich and elite social classes and students.

Crystal meth abuse in Iran is high among -13year-olds, university students, teachers, and even professors due to the prevailing impression that it activates memory and brain cells and lets the individual feel active unlike any other drugs or stimulants.

The reason behind the spread of this drug among students and the educated elite is that it does not smell as bad as other drugs such as cannabis, opium and others although it causes breakdowns and sometimes delusion and madness.

Rising unemployment and inflation rates in Iran have led to a significant increase in suicides.

According to officials at the anti-drug police and the Ministry of Health, the latest statistics indicate there are nearly 2.5 million drug addicts in Iran, from which women constitute nine percent.

Yet, statistics by research and studies centers indicate double figures.

According to intelligence information, the IRGC cooperates with Afghanistan’s Taliban in establishing drug smuggling networks which sell drugs in European countries to finance the armed group. Iranian opposition estimates that 60 percent of the heroin and morphine produced in Afghanistan are smuggled into the world through Iran.

Majority Addicts “It is in the interest of the Iranian regime for the percentage of addicts to increase,” Mullah Majid al-Balochi, a Baloch political activist, told Al-Majalla.

“This is a systematic policy in regions highly inhabited with regime opposition, especially in minority areas.” The Balochistan region is considered one of the poorest areas in Iran, and drugs are very common there. And because it is a border area, it is normal to smuggle narcotics from there.

“Death sentence is only given for smugglers who don’t have links with the Revolutionary Guard. We know individuals who smuggle tons of drugs to Europe through Turkey. They have strong relations with the Revolutionary Guards, and they don’t get arrested because they give the Guard a share of the profit this is something the Balochis know too well,” Balochi said.

He added that the regime is the biggest perpetrator of the drug crisis because it is the only entity with the capacity to stop drug smuggling in towns and counties. The Iranian regime, however, deliberately wants to destroy youth and overlook them.

“The main reason, as I said earlier, is that the IRGC receives

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Calls for releasing Iranian advocate.

Drug addiction and trafficking in Iran

money from drug smuggling and because the price of drugs in Balochistan is cheaper than food.”

As for the percentage of the addicts, he said there are no accurate figures, but almost 80 percent of young people are addicted.

There are no schools in Balochistan. Life is very difficult and people lack the basic needs. There is a government report that 70 percent of Balochistani regions lack water.

He also explained that heroin, opium and “antidotes” are the most common types of drugs sold in the area, adding that many people die from addiction and overdose. There is also no accurate or reliable statistics about the number of people who died for these reasons.

“The regime only really charges drug traffickers or abusers who happen to be its opponents; as such these charges don’t have the purpose of rehabilitating them but rather serve as a means of sadistic punishment.”

In 2016, Iranian judicial authorities executed many men in

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Official statistics carried out by the Iranian regime indicate there are more than 2.8 million drug addicts in Iran Balochistan on charges related to drug trafficking and others, he noted.

The verdicts against those executed are also issued in unfair courts, according to international organizations that realize that Iranian authorities execute people who follow opposing political stance by issuing charges related to drug trafficking.

“There are always armed operations in Balochistan against the regime, and our areas have become paramilitary and witness severe security tightening, which impedes the people’s

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movement.” Al-Balochi said.

All what mentioned earlier was enough for Iranians to protest over the past three years. There are strikes and protests taking place in Iranian cities and provinces. There are protesters from different areas and regions in Iran.

The specialist in Iranian affairs, Moussa al-Sharifi, said mass protests are among the most important forces that will weaken the theocratic dictatorship in Iran.

“The Iranian regime has tried to marginalize the opposition for the last 40 years; incidentally these oppressive tactics are the same ones that contributed to the removal of the Shah and to the victory of the revolution in 1979. The regime sought, through all its repressive tools, to eliminate the opposition and remove it from the political scene,” Sharifi noted.

“Since clerics took over the rule, jails were expanded and used the most barbaric torture methods against opposition members, torture methods the likes of which haven’t been seen since the middle ages. But the Iranian people, who were and still are pioneers in demanding freedom and democracy, remain adamant in their struggle.”

“Perhaps the mass executions carried out by the regime against prisoners in 1988 were both a continuation of the eight-year war against Iraq and a national suppression to freedoms,” Sharifi said in an interview with Al-Majalla.

He explained that these executions claimed the lives of some 30,000 politicians, who were killed only because they opposed the regime at the time.

Ayatollah Montazeri, then Khomeini’s deputy, opposed carrying out these executions and resigned from his post.

Therefore, the regime was aware from the beginning that Iranians could not accept dictatorship, especially since these people have a great deal in the struggle for democracy. They have fought in Iran for more than 100 years to claim their freedom and they are still fighting for this cause.

He explained that the regime has tried to create a formal opposition from within itself and called it the reform movement.

The reformists succeeded in deceiving the masses with their

Selling organs for profit is legal and organized by the government itself.

An estimated 100,000 kidneys were sold in one year alone.

slogans calling for reform, but after more than 20 years, they did not change anything in Iran. Instead, they contributed to the continuity of the regime and its rule.

“Nonetheless, the Iranian people have become aware of this farce and since 2018 held mass protests demanding the overthrow of the regime as a whole.”

People rejected the reformers’ role, and unlike the year 2009, reformists had no role in these protests.

Sharifi also pointed out that recent protests and sanctions imposed by the United States are vital for weakening the regime.

“The Islamic Republic’s regime is witnessing a structural collapse,” said Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“The foundations of the state are still stable, based solely on the pillars of fear and terror created by the regime among the Iranians,” Sharifi stressed.

If this fear continues, it will not only change the regime but also the government, he added.

No one can predict what will happen tomorrow, and the IRGC is also ready to suppress these protests by excessive force.

“The Iranian regime has nothing to offer to people, and the Iranians are fed up with this regime because it hasn’t fulfilled any of the promises made by all its movements, including hardliners and reformers.”

“The regime’s plans have all failed. It is not willing to carry out any developments or economic reforms and has no vision. So, what compromises can appease the people in this current state?

The answer is nothing.”

FOCUS ON IRAN FIRST “Fortunately, demonstrators linked their deteriorating living conditions to Iran’s foreign policy,” Sharifi went on saying.

“The regime tried through its foreign policy to tell Iranians they have influence abroad, and it believed that the Iranians would rally behind the regime’s attempts of becoming a regional superpower.

However, this did not appeal to the Iranian people, in fact Iranians are wholeheartedly apathetic to the regime’s foreign ambitions.”

Iranians expressed such frustrations during protests in which they shout chants such as: “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my soul to my Iran” or “Leave Syria and focus on Iranians’ conditions.”

These slogans proved that Iranians are against the regime’s policy, and that the regime has failed to demonstrate to its people that its wars abroad aim at protecting their internal security. The regime also forgot that the deteriorating economic conditions and the spread of corruption and embezzlement are leading to the outbreak of demonstrations and protests, which constitute

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an essential part of instability and supports isolating the regime along with the suffocating US sanctions.

“Thus, protests play a major role in weakening the regime in Tehran, and the regime knows very well that Iranians will not support its decision to confront the United States or any other country.”

The situation today is different from that of the 1980s, a time in which the regime could use its war with Iraq to justify its heinous acts.

“When people are convinced that their regimes are incapable of meeting their needs and fulfilling their obligations, they are not afraid of repression because they have nothing to lose, they storm the streets for change at any cost,” Sharifi said.

Last year’s protests proved to the regime that Iranians are conscious and will not tolerate worsening living conditions. Iran is the richest country in the region, but 60 percent of Iranians live below the poverty line. This indicates the mismanagement of this regime, which has wasted people’s funds with its sick sectarian wars and its projects in support of terrorism.

The shocking statistics represent the biggest evidence of the regime’s failure and its mismanagement of social, cultural, political and economic issues.

What has this regime done in favor of its people in the so-called achievements of the revolution, and what does it want to export to the region? Does it want to export these tragic conditions to

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The Iranian regime’s policies have marginalized Kurdish and other minority regions neighboring countries? What has it done to Iraq from 2003 to this day other than brutal acts carried out by its militias? What did it offer to the region other than sick sectarian wars dividing Shiites and Sunnis?

The truth is that the Iranian situation is neither improving nor recovering and that the region knows that peace and stability could only be achieved by toppling this fascist regime that causes trouble both internally and regionally.

Both Ali Khamenei’s regime, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdad’s so called caliphate follow the same methodology, said Sharifi. The only difference, however, is that ISIS emerged at a time in which social media exposed its crimes. But the Islamic Republic has earlier committed dozens crimes when it began its rule, yet there was no social media at the that time to expose its acts.

Sharifi concluded the conversion by pondering whether or not the Iranian opposition is ready to take over.

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National Council of Resistance of Iran Member: Khamenei Destroyed Infrastructure, Wasted People’s Wealth Hossein Daei al-Islam Tells Majalla the Regime Can’t Address Iran’s Simplest Problems

by Roshan Kasem Majalla Magazine met Member of National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) Hossein Daei al-Islam, an old member of People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), who talked about the future of protests in the country.

He said Arab countries and the international community should show the regime how firm they are, cut relations with it and recognize the Iranian resistance.

“Throughout its 40 years of looting, corrupting, oppressing and wasting Iranian people’s wealth to wage wars abroad, the regime has destroyed the country’s economic infrastructure,” Daei al-Islam noted.

“The regime's experts have publicly declared that it doesn’t have solutions to the country’s crises.”

He stressed that NCRI calls for the establishment of a democratic and secular republic in Iran on the basis of separation of religion and state and peaceful coexistence with regional countries.

Daei al-Islam added that due to its medieval and terrorist nature, the regime doesn’t want to and can’t address the most basic problem faced by Iranian people. “For this reason, more than 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line as corruption and looting by government officials have increased.”

Q- How have strikes and protests affected Iran’s political situation?

The protests proved the regime’s inability to deal with Iran's economic, social and political crises and that it is on the verge of collapsing. They also ended the terror and fear the regime has been trying to impose on people and showed it was unable to suppress supporters of the Iranian resistance, which plays a significant role in expanding protests.

The regime also expressed its fear from being toppled as its leaders have all warned of this consequence, and Khamenei, himself, warned in his speech on December 2018 ,12, of these protests and said it is Iran’s 1398 strife.

Moreover, these protests revealed the exacerbation of the crisis and the widening of the gap within the regime. They exposed lies told by the regime’s media and its supporters regarding the popular base it enjoys.

Q -How do you read the Iranian regime's handling of the ongoing discontent among Iranians due to the deteriorating economic and living conditions caused by high prices and the collapse of the local currency?

Throughout its 40 years of looting, corrupting, oppressing and wasting Iranian people’s wealth to wage wars abroad, the regime has destroyed the country’s economic infrastructure. The regime’s experts have publicly declared that it

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doesn’t have solutions to the country’s crises.

Last year, the regime was unable to address any of the people’s issues. Instead, it practised oppression and wanted to solve the currency crisis by arresting brokers and executing individuals rather than addressing the problem. Despite that, the currency’s exchange rate rose again.

It wanted to address workers' demands, for example, in the sugar cane plant at Haft Tepe, the steel industry in Ahwaz or HEPCO factory in Arak, by arresting and imprisoning labor activists. However, the crisis has emerged again. For this reason, it continues to oppress people internally and create crises abroad, leading to tightening internal crises and isolating the regime ever more, which allows people to storm streets and protest against these actions. Therefore, popular protests, the people and the resistance’s demands must be supported in order to change the regime.

Q- Some said that the resignation of Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was a sign of a crisis within the Supreme Leader’s regime and a reflection of the conflict between its parties. What is your opinion in this regard?

Over the past five and a half years, Zarif has been trying to present the regime as being moderate and facilitate trade deals. Zarif’s resignation showed the growing crisis and struggle for power within the regime as well as the impasse faced by the regime at the international level. The latest scandal reveals the depth of the internal crisis, and Zarif's return will further escalate these internal differences.

The foreign minister’s resignation took place at the worst time. It sent meaningful signals to the West that in addition to the worsening economic and living conditions in Iran, the political situation, especially within the government, is also bad, according to IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper.

Q- Will unemployment, suicide, drugs, migration and social problems turn into a revolution? Is it possible for protests and strikes to further develop into a real revolution in Iran?

Due to the regime’s medieval and terrorist nature, it doesn’t want to and can’t address the most basic problem faced by Iranian people. For this reason, more than 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the regime’s media and officials, as corruption and looting by government officials have increased. For example, one corruption case recently revealed the embezzling 6.6 billion euros from Iran’s petrochemical industry alone. Thus, a greater uprising should be expected to take place.

According to a report by supporters of People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran, at least 248 protests took place in 71 cities in Iran just in February.

Q- To what extent are the Iranian opposition parties ready for any political 29/03/19

The regime’s only concern is the rise of uprisings within the country and being overthrown by people, and the Iranian resistance.

Hossein Daei al-Islam, Member of National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)

change in the country?

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which was established on July 1981 ,21 in Tehran, is the oldest political coalition in Iran’s contemporary history. It includes more than 500 members, half of whom are women, and its members belong to independent Iranian factions, groups and figures.

The Council elected Maryam Rajavi as President during the period of transitioning power to the Iranian people. After toppling the Supreme Leaders' regime, the Council will form a coalition government that will take office for a maximum of six months. Its primary tasks will be holding general elections and forming a national constituent assembly.

It stressed that NCRI calls for the establishment of a democratic and secular republic in Iran on the basis of separation of religion and state and peaceful coexistence with regional countries. The pivotal movement in the Council is the PMOI, with 54 years of struggle against Shah and Mullah’s dictatorships, and it represents hope for Iranians and peoples of the region to achieve a liberated Supporters of PMOI have established strongholds of the uprising in various Iranian cities and are playing an important role in igniting and organizing the popular protests.

On January 2018 ,9, Khamenei said that the PMOI led the uprisings last year.

One year later, in January 2019, he again recognized the role of the PMOI in organizing protests.

IRGC leaders and security services also confirm the PMOI’s role in organizing the uprisings. These strongholds work on expanding protests and organizing people’s movements in various cities and will be the necessary force to topple the regime.

Q- Where are the reformists? Such as Khatami, Mousavi and heroes of the Green Movement.

Reformers in the Supreme Leader’s regime are only a mirage, and its leaders present them to justify the bargaining policy with the regime. Otherwise, it is very clear that the regime can’t bear reform because the first step towards reform would be rejecting the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist’s (Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) regime.

Protesters address the reformers and fundamentalists telling them “Game Over!”

This proves the failure of the reformers’ game in Iran.

“Citizens nowadays ask us about the real reforms carried out by the regime after they took to the polls. It is very hard to ask citizens again to head to polls and vote,” wrote Former Iranian President Mullah Mohammad Khatami on his Telegraph account on March 6.

Q- Where is Iran heading in light of Russia’s attempts to limit its actions in Syria, US movements to stifle the Tehran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Gulf diplomacy?

The explosive situation in Iranian society and the systemic dilemmas at the regional and international levels have weakened Khamenei’s rule.

The regime’s regional interventions have drowned it because Iranians refuse to spend their wealth on killing other people and massacres. International policy has also changed towards the regime, whose continuous interventions are causing its isolation more than ever before.

The most important international shift in relations with Iran took place with the new US administration, the change of Western bargaining policy and the region's policy towards the regime.

The policy of exporting terrorism and spreading wars in the region has been seriously hit by mass protests in Iran, regional alliances and halt of the bargaining policy. The Warsaw Summit mainly addressed the general international approach to counter the regime’s terrorism and policies which aim at spreading wars in the region.

Europe’s attempts to circumvent US sanctions and present a special European financial mechanism did not succeed. Khamenei and other regime officials say Europe will not benefit them in any way.

Q- Will the Iranian regime abandon its destructive behaviors in the region?

Khamenei said on May 2017 ,10, that any change in the regime’s behavior would mean regime change. He also stressed in another speech that the United States will not strike Iran and that his country would not negotiate with it.

Q- What can we conclude from that?

First, the regime will not stop exporting terrorism and spreading wars in the region because these interventions are part of its strategy to stay in power.

Second, the regime’s only concern is the rise of uprisings within the country and being overthrown by people and the Iranian resistance.

Third, the only way to stop the regime's regional interventions is if the people and the country’s organized resistance changed the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist’s regime.

Fourth, Arab countries and the international community should show the regime how firm they are, cut relations with it and recognize the Iranian people’s right to change it. In addition, protests should be supported and the resistance should be acknowledged.

As Maryam Rajavi said in her message addressed to protesters in Washington on March 8: “It’s time for the international community, and especially the United States, to acknowledge the Iranian people’s right to resist in order to topple the regime. Iranians will not stop their attempts to gain freedom. And they certainly will do so”.

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Breaking Decades of Silence on Kurdish Persecution Ambitious Project Documenting Kurdish History Launches with Documentary Film on Yazidis 48

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The KMP website is a vast and historically valuable trove of Kurdish history that puts names to faces of victims, raising the sounds of their moral voices which have too often gone unheard. religious minority were killed or captured. Still, Kurdish history remains largely undocumented, and therefore, unknown on a larger scale.

On the 31st anniversary of the Anfal genocide campaign during which the Iraqi regime killed about about 182,000 people, the European launch of the Kurdistan Memory Programme (KMP) was held at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (Bafta) in London.

The KMP aims to document and present an enduring, historically accurate record of the Kurdish experience “in sound and living colour, definitively documenting the unique voices of Kurdistan for future generations,” as they explain on their website.

Member of the Chatto family from the documentary film “One Yazidi Family vs ISIS”

by Yasmine El-Geressi Kurdistan was erased from the world's maps after World War I when the victorious powers drew up the borders of the modern Middle East, denying the Kurds a nation-state despite being the region’s largest ethnic group. More than twenty million Kurds live in parts of Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.

Throughout the 20th century their struggles for political and cultural autonomy were opposed by all four states and the Kurds were often used as pawns in regional politics. The Kurds' plight most recently captured the world's attention in 2014 during the ISIS’s genocide against the Yazidis when almost 10,000 members of the ethnic and

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"National tragedy has changed life in Kurdistan irrevocably, defining the history of the region.

The KMP is preserving this heritage by producing a world class multimedia record, so that young and older Kurds can more deeply understand how their lives have been shaped by the events of the past.”

The KMP website is a vast and historically valuable trove of Kurdish history that puts names to faces of victims, raising the sounds of their moral voices which have too often gone unheard.

Through over 1000 invaluable oral history interviews and 400 video testimonies collected over the past 10 years from people who have survived the terrifying experiences of executions, gas attacks, deportation, flight and imprisonment, the KMP hope to illuminate the enormity of the crimes committed against the Kurdish people and the universal lessons that emerge from the

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catastrophic ramifications of prejudice and hatred which still occur today, thus igniting the urgent debate on the future of the Kurds.

“Perhaps the biggest lesson we learned is that the Kurdish story has not just been ignored for 40 years. In fact, we learned Kurdish history and culture have been routinely denied, suppressed and erased for a period lasting more than 500 years.We found that true Kurdish history is rarely recognised.” said Gwynne Roberts, International Director of the KMP. “In 1981, I went behind the lines of the Iran-Iraq war to report the injustices suffered by the Kurds.

The New York Times, that previously published all my articles on the Kurdish uprising in the midseventies, was not interested in my coverage now that the Kurds were no longer allies of America.

Nevertheless, in the years that followed, I made it my mission to make the world aware of the truth of historical events in Kurdistan. This commitment continues to this day for the Kurdistan Memory Programme,” explained the journalist-turnedfilmmaker who’s been recording tan documenting violence against the Kurds and the region’s major conflicts for over 30 years.

During the launch of the KMP, the documentary film “One Yazidi Family vs ISIS” directed and produced by Roberts was screened for the first time in the UK. In 2014, an ISIS massacre of unimaginable proportions took place during the rapid invasion of the Yazidi people in Sinjar,

The heart-rending film follows the tragic story of the courageous Chatto family during their desperate plight, which is emblematic of the persecution faced by Yazidis under ISIS.

Northern Iraq. More than 3,000 people were murdered, with almost half executed by gunshot, beheading or being burned alive, while the rest died from starvation, dehydration or injuries during the ISIS siege on Mount Sinjar. Scores of young Yazidi women were enslaved, tortured and systematically raped. The heart-rending film follows the tragic story of the courageous Chatto family during their desperate plight, which is emblematic of the persecution faced by Yazidis under ISIS. “We really want to reach a wider audience as

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Gwynne Roberts, International Director of the KMP.

Karwan Jamal Tahir, Kurdistan Regional Government UK High Representative.

possible, but the problem with the film in a way, that it’s extremely painful to see. But I do think that’s important, that the wider community sees this, and have some understanding of what these people have been through, not only Ezidis but also the survivors of Anfal,” Gwynne Roberts said after the screening.

“I just hope by showing this film, people in and outside of Kurdistan will have deeper appreciation and sympathy for their experience,” he added.

The Kurdistan Regional Government UK High

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Representative, Karwan Jamal Tahir, said: “The people of Kurdistan require Justice and genocide recognition of all crimes committed against our nation, we have seen no justice as yet for the victims and survivors, despite many efforts made internally and internationally.”

“After all that oppression, they couldn't deny the fact that Kurdish nation exists and here we are that today, we screen our story to you and the world at the most prestigious place in this fantastic capital,” he added.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Issue 1741 - March - 29/03/2019

Anna Jarvis: The Founder of Mother’s Day Who Fought to Have it Abolished www.majalla.com

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What a Rush!

Feeling Woozy When You Stand?

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You stand up and suddenly feel unsteady on your feet. It’s easy to brush off this experience as a fluke or a bug, but don’t. You may have a condition called orthostatic hypotension. a condition called orthostatic hypotension, a temporary drop in blood pressure when you stand. It’s tricky to catch.

“Blood pressure is highly variable, and depends on position, timing, the method of measurement, and circumstances associated with its measurement,” says Dr. Lewis Lipsitz, chief of gerontology at Harvard-affiliated Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and director of the Marcus Institute for Aging Research at Hebrew SeniorLife. “It may take multiple blood pressure measurements at different times of day, lying and standing, in order to detect orthostatic hypotension,” Dr. Lipsitz says.

WHY IT HAPPENS When you stand, blood rushes to your abdomen and legs, and away from your head and brain, simply because of gravity. Your body’s autonomic nervous system senses this and alerts the brain to make the heart beat faster and narrow your blood vessels. That restores normal blood flow to your brain and elsewhere.

GP taking blood pressure with sphygmomanometer, UK. (Getty)

But over time, the system can weaken. Heart rate may not increase and blood vessels become stiffer and less able to adapt. Blood pressure may also fall if you’re dehydrated or taking medications that affect heart rate or blood vessel function.

Some diseases (such as Parkinson’s disease and diabetes) can also contribute to the problem.

Harvard Health It might be orthostatic hypotension, a condition that can be challenging to catch and treat.

You stand up and suddenly feel unsteady on your feet. It’s easy to brush off this experience as a fluke or a bug, but don’t. You may have

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The result is that standing up reduces blood flow to the brain, causing light-headedness, blurred vision, or fainting. Fortunately, the condition is mild in most people: you just need to be careful when sitting up or standing up, ready to sit back

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down if you feel you might faint. Some people don’t have any light-headedness, but fall anyway.

HOW TO MONITOR YOUR BLOOD PRESSURE AT HOME You don’t have to wait for a doctor appointment to monitor your blood pressure. An automatic monitor that doesn’t require a stethoscope is easy to use and widely available in drugstores or online for 50$ to 100$. You may need to ask your doctor or nurse to help you calibrate it first (to make sure it’s accurate) and help you learn to operate it.

For general monitoring, take your blood pressure once or twice per month (or when your doctor recommends). The best times are early mornings, after meals, and evenings.

To ensure accurate readings: • Sit quietly for 10 minutes first.

• Relax your arm and keep it supported at heart level.

• Wrap the blood pressure cuff around the skin of your arm, not over a shirtsleeve.

• Keep both feet on the floor.

If you have orthostatic hypotension, check your blood pressure a few times per week, either in the morning or evening. Each time, get at least two different measurements: one measurement while lying down, and one while standing up.

Wait a few minutes in between each reading for your blood pressure to stabilize.

If you notice big changes in your blood pressure, report them to your doctor. “But don’t take your blood pressure too often. It’s not helpful, and it may increase stress or anxiety, which isn’t good for your heart or blood pressure,” suggests Dr. Randall Zusman, a cardiologist with Harvardaffiliated Massachusetts General Hospital.

And remember: home monitoring should not replace regular visits to your doctor.

WHAT’S THE FIX When orthostatic hypotension is more severe, treatment can be challenging. “Standing blood pressure may be very low, while lying blood pressure may be very high,” Dr. Lipsitz explains.

He recommends treatments ranging from wearing compression stockings and elevating the head of the bed to reduce overnight blood pressure, to medications such as midodrine (Orvaten, ProAmatine) and fludro¬cortisone (Florinef).

What else helps for this low blood pressure condition? “I start with a high-salt diet, then add fludrocortisone, then add nonsteroidal anti-

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Directly Above Shot Of Alphabets Making Hypotension Text By Stethoscope On Table.

(Getty)

When you stand, blood rushes to your abdomen and legs, and away from your head and brain, simply because of gravity. Your body’s autonomic nervous system senses this and alerts the brain to make the heart beat faster and narrow your blood vessels. inflammatory medications such as ibuprofen [Motrin, Advil] to force fluid and salt retention,” says Dr. Randall Zusman, a cardiologist with Harvard-affiliated Massachusetts General Hospital.

A few final tips: “Drink at least one or two quarts of fluid daily to prevent dehydration, keep moving your legs when you’re upright, and maintain good muscle strength in your legs,” Dr. Lipsitz suggests.

Originally published in the Harvard Health Letter

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Anna Jarvis: The Founder of Mother’s Day Who Fought to Have it Abolished Majalla- London Illustration by Ali Minadalou 1 - Mother’s Day was commemorated thanks to a relentless and spirited campaign by social activist Anna Jarvis (1948-1864) to make it a national holiday in the US in honor of her mother, Ann Jarvis (1905 – 1832) 2 -Ann Jarvis worked during the American Civil War. She tended to wounded Union and Confederate soldiers. After the war ended in 1865, women planned Mother’s Friendship Day picnics in an effort to bring Union and Confederate loyalists together, urging them to promote peace. Ann Jarvis, who lost nine of her 13 children before they reached adulthood, organized many of the Mother’s Day work club events.

-3 When Anna was 12, her mom led a classroom prayer to coincide with a “Mothers of the Bible” lesson: “I hope that someone, sometime will found a memorial mothers day commemorating her for the matchless service she renders to humanity in every field of life. She is entitled to it.”

The prayer stayed with Jarvis even after her mother’s death in 1905. Her brother Claude reported hearing her say at the funeral, “. . . by the grace of God, you shall have that Mother’s Day.” -4 When Ann Jarvis passed away in 1905, her daughter was devastated. She carefully read the cards and letters of sympathy she received over and

over, taking the time to underline all the words that praised and complimented her mother. As an outlet to memorialize her mother, she organized a letterwriting drive aimed at people in positions of power to institute a special day honoring all mothers.

-5 Eventually, on May 1908 ,10, the first Mother’s Day was observed. Jarvis did not attend the event but sent 500 white carnations, her mother’s favorite flower, to the church where she’d taught Sunday School in West Virginia so the sons and daughters there could wear them and “represent the purity of a mother’s love.” West Virginia became the first state to officially adopt Mother’s Day in 1910.

potential to mine gold, or sell cards and flowers to husbands and children to shower upon their matriarchs. In response to the floral industry, she had thousands of celluloid buttons made featuring the white carnation, which she sent free of charge to women’s, school and church groups. Jarvis filed lawsuits and applied for a trademark to protect the connection between carnations and Mother’s Day. Jarvis soured on the commercial interests associated with the day.

-6 Having the other states follow suit proved to be a bit more challenging, with Jarvis finding herself on the receiving end of mockery by U.S. Senators, who characterized any such day as “puerile,” “absolutely absurd,” and “trifling.”

-9 Also infuriating to Jarvis was the idea of preprinted cards. MentalFloss.com quotes her bitter feelings on the topic: “A maudlin, insincere printed card or ready-made telegram means nothing except that you’re too lazy to write to the woman who has done more for you than anyone else in the world.

Any mother would rather have a line of the worst scribble from her son or daughter than any fancy greeting card.”

-7 Nevertheless, Mother’s Day caught on because of Jarvis’s letter writing and promotional campaigns across the country and the world. She enlisted the help of help from wealthy backers like John Wanamaker and H.J. Heinz and organizations like the World’s Sunday School Association, and she soon devoted herself full-time to the promotion of Mother’s Day. The holiday sailed through Congress with little opposition in 1914.

-10 She was arrested once for disturbing the peace at a Mother’s Day carnation sale at a meeting of the nonprofit group American War Mothers. She also criticized President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s wife, Eleanor Roosevelt, for using Mother’s Day to raise money for charities that worked to combat high maternal and infant mortality rates, even though it was “the very type of work Jarvis’ mother did during her lifetime.”

-8 It became common for people to acknowledge Mother’s Day by wearing red carnations — to honor living mothers — and white ones for those who had passed. Beginning in the 1920s, greeting card companies and florists realized they had the

-11 While dining at the Tea Room at Wanamaker’s department store in Philadelphia. She saw they were offering a "Mother’s Day Salad." She ordered the salad and when it was served, she stood up, dumped it on the floor, left the money to pay for it,

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and walked out in a huff. Jarvis had lost control of the holiday she helped create, and she was crushed by her belief that commercialism was destroying Mother’s Day. -12 Her indignation didn’t stop at Mother’s Day,

either, with Bernacci saying she also tried to stop the founding of Father’s Day, calling it a “knock-off holiday.”

-13 Jarvis was so determined to see Mother’s Day disappear that she spent the latter part of her life

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going door-to-door in Philadelphia, asking for signatures on a petition to rescind Mother’s Day. In her twilight years, she became a recluse and a hoarder. She died in 1948 in an asylum, the bill for which was partly paid by “a group of grateful florists.”