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Taliban and the Future of Afghanistan www.majal a.com

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www.majalla.com/eng Taliban is back in control of Afghanistan. This major political earthquake that shook the world last week just marks a new era that opens the door for analysts, researchers, politicians and jihadist group experts to navigate post-US Afghanistan which has immediately fallen back to the extremist movement. In this week’s cover story, Ahmad Taher first observes the reasons for the rapid downfall of the Afghan state that took world leaders by surprise, while stating that Taliban’s comeback itself was not surprising. Two explanations are the weak government and the changed rhetoric of the movement which was engaged in talks with the U.S. administration under Trump.

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Taher explores various scenarios awaiting the region whose countries are justifiably concerned with the future of the Afghan state under Taliban. The most promising scenario of running a successful state would definitely require that the movement fulfill its commitments with internal and external forces. On the other side, the grimmest scenario which is not unlikely, would entail the country’s slide into a destructive civil war. However, models of similarly plagued countries such as Balkans and Syria is presented as possible with more emphasis on the Syrian example.

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On their part, Arab countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, are best poised to play an effective role in negotiating and coordinating global efforts that would chart a roadmap for the future of Afghanistan and endure the stability of the region.

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Mare ‘Mamma Mia’ is presented during the Horse Show ‘Pride of Poland’ during the ‘Arabian Horse Days’ in Janow Podlaski, eastern Poland, 15 August 2021. Customers and horse breeders from around the world take part in the Pride of Poland Auction in Janow Podlaski. The event is organized by the Polish Jockey Club )EPA Photos(

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Taliban and the Future of Afghanistan A Call for Intl. & Regional Partnership to Assist Return of the Afghan State By Ahmad Taher

in regaining control over Afghanistan following a 20year absence since the American war on the country Taliban is an Islamist movement that has reappeared in 2001. This recurrence came in light of the global at the international and regional scene as it succeeded war on terrorism that was launched as a result of the

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This handout photo released by the Arabic Twitter account of the «Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan» on August 18, 2021 shows a Taliban delegation led by the head of the negotiating team Anas Haqqani (CR) meeting with former Afghan government officials including former president Hamid Karzai (C-L) at an unspecified location in Afghanistan. (Photo by - / Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan / AFP)

events following the September 11 attack and ended the rule of the movement that had run the country since 1996. The recent US decision to resume withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan by the end of August has given the movement the chance to extend its control over the 34 provinces that fell in less than 10 days. The retreat of Afghan forces also paved the way for the movement to take over the capital, Kabul, which it seized after the Afghan President’s escape on August 15 to the Republic of Tajikistan under the pretext of preserving Afghans’ lives and preventing further bloodshed. The absence of any resistance from the Afghan internal forces, and even an actual regional opposition or a strong international resistance has raised many questions at the local, regional and international levels. Among these questions are: What are the factors that led to the withdrawal of the Afghan army and the forces opposing the rule of Taliban without any resistance, especially that Taliban’s actions were expected to plunge the country into a civil war? What are the motives of the regional actors on Afghanistan to allow Taliban’s hegemony over the country? Is this due to the movement’s reassuring messages to these parties or to their awareness of the failures of the Afghan government and acknowledgement of Taliban as the only available alternative? Why did international actors take an appeasing stance towards the movement? Did they base their decision on the US agreements with the movement›s leaders that preserve their interests in Afghanistan, particularly that Taliban is trying to show a different image to the world regarding its respect for women, education and human rights inside Afghan territories, and prevention of any contact with terrorist and extremist organizations abroad? The questions raised about the Afghan situation today stress the intertwining of influential factors, the multiplicity of parties involved, the diversity of expected outcomes, and the varying consequences resulting from this change in Afghanistan following the recent US withdrawal decision. Before looking for answers to these questions, it is worth highlighting two important observations: The first is related to the US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. Many reports indicate that this decision shows that there is a close relationship between the democratic administrations in the United States and political Islamist groups. Supporters of this view point out that the US decision was taken during the term of former Democratic US President Barack Obama,

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What makes Taliban movement different from other extremist Islamist organizations is its acceptance to engage in politics by concluding agreements with other internal or external parties and its local vision on its role and responsibilities. noting that he was not able implement it due to the escalating situation in Afghanistan. Joe Biden, who was Obama’s vice president, decided to implement the decision under the pretext that he doesn’t want this conflict to be transferred to his successors. This view was supported by citing the Republicans’ critical reaction to the decision of the current US administration. Nevertheless, this view overlooks former US President Donald Trump’s supporting stance to the withdrawal decision. All this affirms that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of failure is a strategic decision related to the American vision of the developments there, on the one hand, and to the new American orientation towards the east to confront the rising Chinese influence on the other hand. Thus, the decision comes in line with a new US vision of its conflict with China. The second observation is related to Taliban’s altered rhetoric, in which the movement tries to promote its new image internally and abroad (regionally and internationally). The new rhetoric, which outlined respect for women and their right to education, as well as its call to cooperate with the opposing Afghan parties, has been welcomed. Parties hope the movement has developed its ideology and learned a lesson from its previous failure in rule or from its negotiating experience with the United States. What makes the Taliban movement different from other extremist Islamist organizations is its acceptance to engage in politics by concluding agreements with other internal or external parties and its local vision on its role and responsibilities. Other Islamist organizations, however, such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, have global perspectives that make their interventions in the affairs of many coun-

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tries inevitable from their point of view. In light of these two observations, the report highlights the future of Afghanistan under the rule of Taliban, as follows:

FIRST, THE RETURN OF TALIBAN: CAUTIOUS DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL UNDERSTANDINGS

Describing the rise of Taliban and its control over Afghanistan as surprising is not true at all, since all reports assessing the situation after the American

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt should probably expedite the organization of an international conference and invite all local (Afghan) and international regional parties involved in the crisis to discuss how to build the future of Afghanistan.

withdrawal from Afghanistan have emphasized that the movement will regain power. But what was unexpected is the rapid pace of this conquest. Some previous US estimates indicated that it would take three months to take over the reins of power after waging a civil war with the opposing Afghan parties, which would receive regional and international support. However, what happened on the ground was not expected. The Afghan government forces withdrew from their sites and handed over the provinces to the movement’s forces without any resistance. This move can be explained in light of three factors: The first relates to the stance of the Afghan parties that were opposing the rule of Taliban in the 1990s. These parties belong to different ethnicities such as Tajiks and Uzbeks or to different sects such as the Shiite Hazara, and some even belong to the Pashtuns (Taliban’s ethnic group). They all fought a war against the movement during its previous rule. Nonetheless, the internal circumstances of these opposition groups have now changed. Some of their leaders died and others aged and have become involved in politics over the past 20 years, which led to the disintegration of their forces and their unwillingness to fight new battles. As for the second factor, it relates to the varied stances of the regional parties, which were involved in the Afghan crisis and firmly supported the Afghan groups

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Taliban fighters pose for photograph in Wazir Akbar Khan in the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2021. The Taliban declared an «amnesty» across Afghanistan and urged women to join their government Tuesday, seeking to convince a wary population that they have changed a day after deadly chaos gripped the main airport as desperate crowds tried to flee the country. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

An Afghan armed man supporting the Afghan security forces against the Taliban carries a weapon as he walks along a road in Bazarak, Panjshir province, on August 18, 2021. (Photo by Ahmad SAHEL ARMAN / AFP)

to confront the movement’s rule, which threatened their security. These include Central Asian republics (Tajikistan - Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan), which realized during Taliban’s five-year rule (1996-2001) that the movement does not intend to intervene in their internal affairs, making them less opposed to its existence today. They now recognize the movement’s local vision, which targets establishing its rule away from discourses aimed at interfering in the affairs of regional neighbors or carrying a global message as is the case with some other Islamist movements, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda. Taliban also avoids what was previously expressed by the Iranian revolution in 1979 in its interventionist rhetoric to expand the goals of its revolution outside its borders, representing a direct threat to the regional neighbors. Finally, the third factor is related to the new rhetoric the movement is trying to present to the whole world regarding the development of its vision on issues that concern various global parties. The US and Western parties paid special attention to Taliban’s behavior towards women and their right to education, while Afghanistan’s neighbors were more concerned about Taliban’s meetings with some parties to provide reassurances that it will not provide aid to extremist Islamist groups on their territories, in a clear reference to Russia, China and Central Asian republics. They

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A broad view of the fate of internally-torn countries, as witnessed in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, shows that this is the most likely scenario to happen in the coming days if a country faces an internal conflict. fear Afghanistan will turn under the movement’s rule into a hub for terrorist organizations, as was the case in the past. The reassurances given have allowed these countries to welcome the movement’s delegations that met with Chinese officials, who stressed that the coming period will witness joint cooperation. Another rapprochement took place between Russia and Taliban through repeated meetings that emphasized joint cooperation in protecting all diplomatic missions and not aiding extremist organizations on the Russian territories. However, despite all these stances that enabled the

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movement to easily regain power, there is no guarantee that it will be able to consolidate its rule, as this remains contingent on three factors: First, the movement’s credibility in keeping its promises, whether those related to protecting all the diplomatic missions in Afghanistan, or those related to fulfilling its commitments to allow the participation of other Afghan parties in the next government, not only in the transitional period. Second, the movement’s ability to resolve security issues and the daily economic crises which afflict the Afghans and have been exacerbated by the continuation of internal conflicts along

Presenting future scenarios for the developments in Afghanistan will not be easy, given the intertwining events, overlapping policies, contradictory stances and conflicting visions at the internal and external levels.

with the outbreak of the new wave of COVID-19 in the country. The government’s failure to contain the previous waves has led to the citizens’ opposition to Ashraf Ghani’s government and their demand to topple it. Arguably, this failure was one of the factors that made the movement welcomed by the Afghans. Third, the movement’s fulfillment of its commitments with international and regional parties not to aid terrorist organizations on their territories.

SECOND: AFGHANISTAN AND MULTIPLE SCENARIOS

FIRST, AFGHANISTAN AND REBUILDING THE STATE

According to this scenario, Taliban would succeed in managing the affairs of the state by adhering to its internal commitments through adopting a cooperative path with the various Afghan forces to form a government capable of solving daily issues faced by Afghan citizens while improving the status of Afghan women.

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Schoolgirls attend class in Herat on August 17, 2021, following the Taliban stunning takeover of the country. (Photo by AREF KARIMI / AFP)

In this Tuesday, May 28, 2019 file photo, Russian presidential envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, left, speaks to Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban group›s top political leader, third left, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban›s chief negotiator, third right, and other members of the Taliban delegation prior to their talks in Moscow, Russia. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

It would also abide by its commitments with foreign countries to prevent Afghanistan from turning into a hub for terrorist organizations that threaten global and regional security and stability, making relevant actors more supportive for building a state that respects its neighbors by tightening control on its borders and disengaging it from extremist and terrorist organizations. This scenario remains far from being implemented on the ground anytime soon since Taliban is not expected to carry out real changes in its extremist ideological vision. It outlines the wide gap between the slogans raised by the movement and the policies it would adopt domestically. This idea is supported by the recent behavior of its elements who stormed the Afghan cities, who did not stop growing beards, and forced women to wear veil, while fighting the use of technology and advanced tools among its followers. In addition, the movement is not expected to change its intellectual reference, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood’s, which makes Afghanistan a new haven for the group’s elements whose presence in Europe and the Arab world is seeing a significant decline. In fact, Afghanistan has become the most welcoming haven for the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood to rearrange its cards after the defeats it faced in the Arab region following the failure of the so-called “Arab Spring.” MB’s latest failure was in

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Tunisia, in addition to the restrictions imposed on the group›s individuals in many European countries that are fed up with their practices and terrorist acts.

SECOND, AFGHANISTAN AND THE RETURN TO CIVIL WAR

According to this scenario, the movement would fail to manage the country’s affairs during the transition period, in which internal and external parties anticipate the path adopted by the movement to organize its ties with internal partners and external actors. This brings to mind the civil war in Afghanistan during the post-Soviet withdrawal in the late 1980s. This scenario remains close to reality despite its exorbitant consequences on Afghanistan and the region as well. In this case, Afghanistan would become a focal point for a destructive war in the Asian continent that may require interventions of global parties, which may increase its destructive ramifications.

THIRD, AFGHANISTAN AND THE BALKAN MODEL

According to this scenario, Afghanistan would go through a civil war, after which it would be divided into ethnic or sectarian-based independent entities. This would lead to the establishment of small states that fight each other and are subordinate to regional

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and international parties which would back each of them and increase the destructive consequences of a battle which no one knows the end of. This scenario is unlikely to happen in the near future due to its high cost and difficult implementation, in light of the internal complications and foreign interventions that fear its impact on the nearby states, given the ethnic interrelations and sectarian affiliations.

FOURTH: AFGHANISTAN AND THE SYRIAN MODEL

According to this scenario, Afghanistan would become an open battlefield due to Taliban’s weak presence in power. The movement would not be able to extend its control over all the territories but would rather focus on the areas to which it belongs ethnically (Pashtuns). The rest, meanwhile, would be areas of influence backed by regional and international parties. More specifically, the movement›s failure to run the country’s affairs would lead to a loss of control over all areas due to lack of human resources, the economic crises and the foreign interventions, all of which would make the situation in Afghanistan similar to that in Syria. It is worth noting that this scenario is the closest to happen in Afghanistan, as it took place in several countries which witnessed U.S. intervention, such as Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen. In this model, a legitimate government does not rule on the ground, but rather agents affiliated with regional and international

Describing the rise of Taliban as surprising is not true at all, since all reports assessing the situation after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan have emphasized that the movement will regain power.

actors manage areas of influence belonging to these actors. This ensures the achievement of two goals simultaneously: 1- Maintaining a fragile stability in the state away from the daily fighting, which would not prevent occurrence of major incidents every now and then, but they remain limited in scope that its consequences would not extend beyond the state’s borders. 2- Granting the relevant actors areas of influence that achieve their interests without harming the interests of other parties, especially if there is an agreement between these parties on the distribution of areas of influence according to the size of their intervention. In fact, this scenario, which is most likely to occur in Afghanistan, carries a concern about the vision of the U.S. and major powers in shaping the future of the countries in the Arab region. A broad view of the fate of internally-torn countries, as witnessed in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, shows that this is the most likely scenario to happen in the coming days if a country faces an internal conflict. Amidst all the aforementioned, the main question remains about the Arab stance regarding the current situation in Afghanistan, where its past affected the security and stability of many regional countries, as it was a hub for extremist ideology and terrorist acts in various world countries, including the Arab region. The answer is clear. The decision taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to evacuate their diplomatic missions from Afghanistan represents a major step in emphasizing their rejection of the return of Taliban rule. Yet, this does not mean not interacting with the developments on the ground to prevent the same fate of Iraq. Active Arab countries (mainly Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE) must play an effective role in protecting Afghanistan from Taliban’s unilateral rule, taking advantage of the old ties between Saudi Arabia and UAE with the movement. Both Gulf countries, along with Pakistan, had earlier recognized the rule of Taliban and then cut ties with it after the September 11 attacks. These old relations could now be useful to open up and negotiate with the leaders of the movement, which will need recognition of Saudi Arabia, for its prominent Arab and Islamic status, as well as the UAE, for its huge economic capabilities and open market, along with Egypt and the religious authority of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif.

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Afghans gather outside the Hamid Karzai International Airport to flee the country, in Kabul, Afghanistan, 19 August 2021. Thousands of desperate Afghans, including the elderly as well as women and children, have camped outside the Kabul airport for days in the hope of getting evacuated from the country after it was taken over by the Taliban. (EPA/STRINGER)

In return, these countries could receive guarantees from the movement that it will not harbor the remnants of al-Qaeda or welcome any fighters fleeing from the hotbeds of conflicts in Libya, Syria, and elsewhere. This can be achieved through coordinating roles and policies with international actors that have real concerns about Taliban’s intentions in the coming days (i.e. Russia and China, both of which have opened a direct line of coordination and negotiation with the movement), as well as with the US, which remains the most influential in Afghanistan, and with regional actors that have direct interaction with the Afghan parties (i.e. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan). This trend is reinforced by the fact that the ties of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt with all international and regional parties can allow them to jointly

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coordinate and chart the paths of the hoped-for future of Afghanistan away from falling hostage to the Taliban movement and its alliances with former partners of terrorist and jihadist organizations whose elements are present in some regional countries and threaten these countries’ security and stability. In this regard, the three Arab countries should probably expedite the organization of an international conference and invite all the local (Afghan) and international regional parties involved in the crisis, as well as representatives of organizations concerned with the Afghan issue. The conference should discuss how to build the future of Afghanistan by setting a roadmap to restore the Afghan state away from international disputes, regional ambitions and local conflicts.

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Will the Taliban Provide a Hub for Muslim Brotherhood? The Islamist Movement’s Progress in Context of Larger U.S. Disengagement Strategy By Abdelkader Zaoui The incumbent authority in Afghanistan collapsed very quickly, and the extremist militant Taliban swept vast swathes of the country to reach the capital Kabul even earlier than expected, announcing the end of the pluralist political system that was founded under Western American and European auspices. The Taliban announced its determination to re-establish the Islamic Emirate, which it had lost following the American attack against it in 2001. The Taliban was held responsible for plotting with Al Qaeda to strike the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001. This sweep was only surprising to those who saw a new defeat for the US strategy in the greater Middle East, in addition to Washington’s recently reported obligation to enforce a balanced withdrawal of its forces stationed in Iraq. Besides, the US has arguably failed to bring the Houthis to the negotiating table to discuss the future of Yemen, as promised before. It is also unable to curb the Iranian nuclear program, which is getting closer to developing a nuclear bomb. However, the historical trend of American foreign policy shows that Washington’s interest in the Greater Middle East and North Africa is constantly declining. This is not only due to the emergence of new challenges that are more crucial and with detrimental implications for American global leadership, but also because of the conviction developed in US decision-making circles that issues in this region are too complex and difficult to solve due to the intertwining facts and overlapping dimensions. In this case, Americans are best placed to deal with the region in a way that manages crises rather than solves them, and thus it is

not to get too much involved. Disengagement means accepting the fact that these issues and subsequent problems and disputes will remain, but all the while trying to contain them and control their development in order to prevent their explosion and their negative impact on the real American interests. Washington has found political movements disguised under religious cover to be the best way to keep the region tense and on alert, while its peoples’ resources are depleted, and the rest of the world look at the region with caution, suspicion and precaution. Therefore, facilitating the Taliban’s return to political power in Afghanistan should not be seen as an isolated event, but in the context of a set of similar steps that pre-

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US President Joe Biden delivers remarks about the situation in Afghanistan in the East Room of the White House on August 16, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)

Muslim Brotherhood supporters. (Reuters)

ceded it, albeit on a smaller level, and with less impact in terms of media and diplomacy. These steps are part of a strategy that generalizes the practice of politics under a religious cover in order to generate a kind of fanaticism that inevitably leads to counter-intolerance. Hence, a gap of trust and a hostile climate are formed inside and among Middle East societies. There is no dispute now that Biden administration’s decision to remove the Houthi Ansar Allah movement from the list of terrorist organizations had a great impact in fueling the conflict in and around Yemen because of the movement’s intransigence towards Gulf and international peace initiatives. This has exacerbated the military and humanitarian situation and spread instability in the Arabian Peninsula, in addition to the continued bloodshed there. From the same direction came the current attempts to revive the remnants of ISIS, which has strongly resumed its massive terrorist operations in east Syria and western Iraq. The security situation there, especially inside Iraq, has been restored to its past state of deterioration and mutual apprehension among various components of the Iraqi people, who still distrust each other. Political Islam plays a significant role in the American strategy dealing with MENA issues, which is based on crisis management, rather than crisis resolution, while controlling the region’s future. This is evident in Washington’s stances towards various branches of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is true that it was not able to protect some of these branches, but it never gave in to the pressure to designate the group as a terrorist organization. American diplomats may justify this direction by pointing to the absence of any practical and tangible evidence of the involvement of the group or some of its branches in terrorist operations. They would also argue that such designation will be problematic for Washington in the

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Political Islam plays a significant role in the American strategy dealing with MENA issues, which is based on crisis management, rather than crisis resolution, while controlling the region’s future. This is evident in Washington’s stances towards Muslim Brotherhood. region, where some MB branches are allied with the regimes in Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar and other branches are somehow sharing power, such as in Morocco and until recently in Tunisia. However, a European diplomat specialized in MB affairs assured me that Western powers still view the group as a tool to stop the nationalist and leftist tide in the Arab world, and that American intelligence is not naive to lose an inexhaustible source of information and severe ties with a group that has hundreds of commercial, financial, social and educational institutions across the world. He added, with a grin that is sly rather than sarcastic, that he would not be surprised if MB hordes began to migrate to Kabul in search for a shelter under the Taliban. Abdul Qadir Zawi is the former Moroccan Ambassador to the UAE.

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Afghanistan Debate: Realism or Abysmal Failure? Two Opposing Opinions on Lessons Learned and Foreign Policy Patterns By Mohammad Ali Salih - Washington This week, American newspapers and televisions showed horrifying scenes of desperate Afghans trying to enter US military planes at Kabul airport and running alongside a plane as it prepared to take off. As the plane was taking off, at least one person fell off and died and at least one was

found dead inside the wheel well of a plane when it landed outside Afghanistan. In an address to the nation from the White House, President Joe Biden called the scenes “gut-wrenching” and defended his order in April to begin a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. He insisted that “I stand squarely behind my decision. I have learned the hard way

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that there was never a good time to withdraw U.S. forces.” Biden’s argument was not new because the presence of US troops in Afghanistan has been a subject of continuous debate since the troops went there 20 years ago. From the recent debate after the fall of Afghanistan in the Taliban’s hands, here are two opposing opinions as told by two knowledgeable people in their tweets, websites and statements to the media: On one side, Pramila Jayapal, Democratic Congresswoman from Seattle, born in India, and president of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The CPC, established about 30 years ago, represents the most left-leaning leading Democrats in the US. On the other side, James Carafano, Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation in Washington, had served in the Army for 25 years and was an advisor to former President Donald Trump.

CONGRESSWOMAN PRAMILA JAYAPAL: “REALISM” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, (D-WA), (Mandel Ngan/ Pool via REUTERS)

“In 2017, after former President Trump addressed the nation about Afghanistan, I replied to him from the chamber of the House. I said that his address lacked specifics, strategy, and a clear path to end the longest war in our nation’s history. Instead, he proposed committing even more American lives to this endless conflict – a betrayal of his promise to bring this war to an end. At that time, I asked the Congress not to abdicate its duties. The Congress should listen to Americans who want to end the war in Afghanistan. We need a concerted diplomatic effort to sustainably end this war, and bring our heroes home … Today, the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CDC) commends President Biden for fulfilling his commitment to ending the longest war in American history, making it clear that there is no military solution in Afghanistan This tragic war has claimed the lives of thousands of American service members and countless Afghans. It has also distracted the United States from urgent domestic and international

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From the recent debate after the fall of Afghanistan in the Taliban’s hands, here are two opposing opinions. One side commends Biden for listening to Americans wanting to end the longest war, and the other blames him for plunging “that nation into a bloody, ruinous chaos.” challenges, and it is past time to bring our troops home … After nearly two decades of prolonged military occupation, we cannot easily discharge our responsibilities in Afghanistan. The U.S. must support peace and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, and we encourage the Biden administration to quickly put in place a multilateral diplomatic strategy for an inclusive, intra-Afghan process to bring about a sustainable peace … It is also imperative that the Congress and the administration resettle Afghans who worked with U.S. forces, in addition to their families. The CPC commends President Biden and Secretary (of Defense, Lloyd) Austin for listening to the American people and standing up to the voices that want to sustain endless war. The CPC is committed to learning the lessons of Afghanistan by rebalancing our national security posture to emphasize diplomacy, and reasserting congressional war powers where military force is necessary…”

JAMES CARAFANO: “MORE LIKE 9/11 ATTACKS” “President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw abruptly from Afghanistan has plunged that nation into a bloody, ruinous chaos. The only good that can come from this debacle is that our leaders might wake up and recognize

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that the Obama-Biden Doctrine of foreign policy is an abysmal failure and must be abandoned once and for all.

remaining U.S. force had been sized and scoped to present a serious deterrent to the Taliban and be sufficient to protect U.S. interests …

Tragically, this lesson comes, yet again, at tre- The Taliban’s offensive should surprise no one, mendous cost: wide-scale human misery and given the conditions handed to them. Why would they not take advantage of Biden’s abandonment heightened threats to U.S. interests. of Afghanistan? They knew full well the odds First, I will reply to those who blamed Donald that this president would try to stop their orgy Trump. The reality is that, during Trump’s tenure of murder, rape, forced marriages, and mayhem and despite the Afghan government’s many im- were near zero … perfections, Afghanistan had made great strides. The government-controlled most of the coun- Of course, Biden will blame Trump. He will try’s territory. There was real economic growth. blame the Taliban. He can make all the excuses Women could work. Children could go to school. and spin all the narratives he wants, but a narAnd how, in heaven’s name, is Trump to blame rative can’t stop a bullet. This is a disaster. The situation did not collapse until he withdrew for Biden’s disastrous decision to cut and run? Trump was negotiating with the Taliban, but troops—and it is impossible not to conclude this there was nothing wrong with that. The nego- happened because of what he decided. tiations were conditions-based, and Trump made clear the Taliban would be held accountable for Here is the bigger problem. This was not a oneoff decision. This is part of a pattern of Obamatheir actions … Biden foreign policy. And that should surprise Moreover, Trump’s team made sure that if, in no one since the current policies are being manthe end, the Taliban proved untrustworthy, the aged by much the same people …”

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James Carafano, Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation in Washington.

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Why Are Afghans So Afraid of Taliban? Chaos at Airport, Lives Lost in Fleeing Attempts

By Salma Adham

es battling to hold off the Islamist militant group. But what we saw after this is totally heartbreakThe Taliban entered the Afghan capital Kabul on ing and terrifying! Desperate Afghans tried to Sunday 15th August, following a week of rapid flee the capital after the Taliban took power. A territorial gains from retreating government forc- state of chaos and violence spread all over the

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Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and its splinter groups. During the period between 1996 and 2001, Afghanistan, which called itself an “Islamic Emirate”, fell under the rule of the movement, and it witnessed extreme cases of violence against civilians, especially women, and public freedoms. Following the Sept 11, 2001 attacks in the United States by al Qaeda, U.S.-backed forces in the north swept into Kabul in November under the cover of heavy U.S. airstrikes. The Taliban melted away into remote areas, where it began a 20-year-long insurgency against the Afghan government and its Western allies. Some acts Taliban did during its years in power 1996–2001: • According to a 55-page report by the United Nations, the Taliban, while trying to consolidate control over northern and western Afghanistan, committed systematic massacres against civilians. UN officials stated that there had been “15 massacres” between 1996 and 2001.

Afghan women residing in Barcelona attend a protest in front of the UN headquarters in Barcelona, Spain, 17 August 2021, to demand international action to protect women and children’s rights in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover. (EPA/ Quique Garcia)

• Taliban issued edicts forbidding women from being educated, forcing girls to leave schools and colleges. Women leaving their country, especially at the airport. Five people houses were required to be accompanied by a died after trying to cling to the US air force male relative and were obligated to wear the burqa, a traditional dress covering the entire plane. body except for a small slit out of which to To answer the question of why all this is hap- see. pening, we should know first the history of • Religious police forced all women off the this militia. streets of Kabul and issued new regulations The Taliban, which means “students” in the ordering people to blacken their windows so Pashto language, emerged in 1994 around the that women would not be visible from outsouthern Afghan city of Kandahar. It was one side. of the factions fighting a civil war for control of the country following the withdrawal of • Taliban imposed restrictions on modern the Soviet Union and the subsequent collapse education, banned female education and encouraged only Islamic religious schools and of the government. the teaching of the Quran. Around half of the Its ideology has been described as an “in- schools in Afghanistan were destroyed. novative form of sharia combining Pashtun tribal codes”, or Pashtunwali, with radical • They banned many recreational activities Deobandi interpretations of Islam favored by and games, such as football, kite flying, and

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chess. General entertainment such as televisions, cinemas, music, VCRs and satellite dishes were also banned. • In 1998, the United Nations accused the Taliban of denying emergency food by the UN’s World Food Programme to 160,000 starving people “for political and military reasons”. • Several Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders ran a network of human trafficking, ab-

During the period between 1996 and 2001, Afghanistan, which called itself an “Islamic Emirate”, fell under the rule of the movement, and it witnessed extreme cases of violence against civilians, especially women, and public freedoms.

ducting ethnic minority women and selling them into sex slavery in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Time magazine writes: “The Taliban often argued that the restrictions they placed on women were a way of revering and protecting the opposite sex. The behavior of the Taliban during the six years they expanded their rule in Afghanistan made a mockery of that claim.” • Afghanistan has had a rich musical culture, where music plays an important part in social functions like births and marriages and has also played a big role in uniting an ethnically diverse country. However, since coming to power and even after being deposed, the Taliban has banned all music including cultural folk music and has attacked and killed several musicians. • The Taliban have inflicted cultural genocide on the Afghan people by destroying their historical and cultural texts, artifacts and sculptures. • Public executions and floggings were common, Western films and books were banned, and cultural artifacts seen as blasphemous by the Taliban were destroyed.

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Afghan nationals cross the border into Pakistan at the PakistanAfghanistan border crossing in Chaman on August 2021 ,18. (AFP)

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Middle East Braces for U.S. Withdrawal Aftermath

Time for Unified Action By Dalia Ziada

The entire world is, legitimately, overwhelmed by the dramatic scenes of Taliban’s return to the peak of power in Afghanistan, following the haste and chaotic withdrawal of the United States and NATO forces. The situation is quickly evolving and everyone, including the United States, is shocked by Taliban’s swift and effortless seizure of power after the tranquil surrender of the US-backed Afghan government and the US-trained Afghan army of 196 thousand

personnel on active duty and advanced US-made equipment. Ironically, the defunct Afghan army was bigger in size and stronger in power than some NATO allies. Is the Taliban we are seeing today any different from the extremist brutal Taliban that wreaked havoc all over the country twenty years ago? Will Taliban’s Islamic Emirate will be able to lead a country of thirty-eight million people without infringing their basic human rights, especially for the vulnerable women and children? How can the international community guarantee that Taliban’s so-called Sharia Law will not

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revive the terrorist organizations, that have been wreaking havoc all over the world for years? The questions are many, and it is still too early to find compelling answers or predict when and where the situation in Afghanistan is going to settle. Meanwhile, the Middle East countries need to get prepared for dealing with the dire aftermath of US withdrawal from the region. The tragic scenes, at Kabul Airport, of Afghan people clinging to the wheels of the American warplanes to escape Taliban’s hell are nothing compared to the miseries expected to emerge after the US withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, expected soon. Unfortunately, the future of the Middle East region appears to be dark and messy. Yet, there still a chance for unified action to be taken to minimize the scale of damage.

AFGHANISTAN’S ECHO AT THE ARAB GULF REGION

Taliban fighters patrol in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021. The Taliban celebrated Afghanistan’s Independence Day on Thursday by declaring they beat the United States, but challenges to their rule ranging from running a country severely short on cash and bureaucrats to potentially facing an armed opposition began to emerge. (AP Photo/ Rahmat Gul)

We know for sure that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and soon from Iraq and Syria, marks the beginning of a whole new era for the region extending from the Arab Gulf to north and east Africa. The Arab Gulf region, in particular, is at great risk of being shaken and broken by the current events in Afghanistan, the same way other Arab countries were damaged by the security aftermath of the Arab Spring. Afghanistan troubles are quickly crawling downward the Arab Gulf countries. Immediately after Taliban’s capture of Kabul, on 15 August, the surrendering president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, and his companions fled the country on a plane to Oman. Afghanistan’s neighbor, Tajikistan, refused to receive them. It is interesting to watch Oman being the first Arab Gulf country to get involved in this chaotic scene, as it has always kept itself a safe distance away from the political troubles of the region. Two days later, the Emirati Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that UAE received the fleeing Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his family, for humanitarian reasons. The next day, Ghani published a video wherein he confirmed that he does not plan to stay in UAE for long and as soon as circumstances allow, he will be back in Afghanistan. On the night of 16 August, some news sources at Kabul Airport mentioned that Acting Minister of Defense, Bismillah Mohammadi, has also escaped on a plane to UAE, after his army surrendered to Taliban. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are trying their best to keep a neutral position towards the events in Afghanistan. As soon as the turmoil erupted, Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a state-

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Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are trying their best to keep a neutral position towards the events in Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia declared that it “stands with the choices that the Afghan people make without any interference.” ment, calling on Taliban to preserve lives and property, reminding them that this is what true Islam instructs. At the end of the statement, Saudi Arabia chose not to take sides in Afghanistan by declaring that it “stands with the choices that the Afghan people make without any interference.” Nevertheless, Taliban is already existent inside Qatar. They have been using their office in Doha to speak to the world media, since the beginning of the turmoil. For decades, Doha hosted a diplomatic representation office for Taliban, even after Taliban had been removed from power and a coalition government took the lead. The shadow government led by Taliban inside Afghanistan, during the past years, used to be administered by Taliban leaders, who lived in Doha. On 16 August, Qatar’s Foreign Minister said that his government is working closely with Taliban to evacuate the diplomatic missions and foreign nationals.

A THREAT TO GULF ECONOMIC AND MILITARY AMBITIONS The current risk posed at the Arab Gulf region is not only resulted from the Gulf region’s geographic proximity to Afghanistan and Iran. The Arab Gulf countries has been exerting a huge effort, in the past few years, to expand their military capabilities and diversify resources for their oildependent economy. Carrying the burden of Afghanistan’s political transitions and the potential of re-emergence of terrorism under Taliban, a threat to Arab Gulf countries economic and military ambitions. Over the past two decades, important Arab Gulf countries, namely Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have grown into modern pragmatic states with self-centered approach to expand their wealth and strength. This created a state of healthy competition that is currently shaping most of the political, economic, and security-related decisions of Gulf

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countries, and are consequently affecting the entire Middle East. In the past five years alone, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar spent billions of dollars on expanding and strengthening their military structures. According to Global Firepower military strength ranking for the year 2021, Saudi Arabia and UAE are among the top six militaries of the Middle East, side by side with the old established militaries of Turkey, Egypt, and Israel. Several military analysts call UAE “the Little Sparta” for its superior military competence compared to its relatively small population and size of geographic area. The growing ambitions of Arab Gulf countries have also extended to the economic arena. Since 1970s, the econo-

The Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation process, which intensified between March and May, is currently standing on the brink of failure. Political clashes between the two countries are once again heating up the region.

mies of Arab Gulf monarchies depended, almost entirely, on locally discovered wealth of petroleum resources. However, in the past few years, major Arab Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and UAE, started to work on diversifying their oil-dependent economies, and seeking to attract western investments and partnership opportunities. In a TV interview in April, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, discussed the most critical mission of developing the Kingdom’s economy, with the ambitious Saudi 2030 Vision. He admitted that this requires modernizing the Saudi society and changing the state system in a way that encourages foreign investment and opens Saudi Arabia to the world, without risking the country’s unique cultural heritage. But bravely, the Crown Prince said he is up to the mission that promises to modernize the entire Gulf region. Unfortunately, all these great visions and ambitions are now at the risk of being, at least delayed or paused, by the greater threat of turmoil coming from Afghanistan.

THE NEW ALLIANCE TO LEAD THE MIDDLE EAST Out of this economic competition and big pursuit of ambitions, the traditional coalitions and alliances of the Middle East region are experiencing an inevitable reshuffle. The United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East, highlighted by Biden Administration’s indifference towards the many plights of the region, and the recent decisions to withdraw US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, is playing an obvious role in accelerating the Middle East reshaping process.

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This image grab taken from a recorded video message broadcast on the Facebook page of former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani on August 18, 2021 shows him speaking. - Ghani made his first appearance since leaving Kabul as the Taliban encircled the capital, a departure that ultimately resulted in their full takeover -- reiterated that he had left in order to spare the country more bloodshed. (FACEBOOK / AFP)

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi (R) and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud talk with journalists during a joint press conference, in Islamabad, Pakistan, 27 July 2021. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan AlSaudi is on an official visit to Islamabad to discuss issues of mutual interests and regional security. (EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD)

In other words, the stage of the Middle East is no more a scene where Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt stand together in one camp against an adversary camp of Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. Since Joseph Biden Administration took office in the United States, at least one of these camps fell apart while the other strengthened further. This availed a space for forming a new alliance of odds that is supposed to lead the region for decades to come. This new alliance is composed of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, and perhaps UAE. The new coalition, which is currently being formed, on a very slow pace though, could mitigate and control most of the strategic threats the region is expected to face, in the next years, especially from the direction of Iran and Afghanistan. That is mainly because of these countries’ strategic geographic locations, at the gates of the main three continents, as well as the complementary military and economic powers they individually enjoy. Pakistan is considered the perfect backer for this coalition, in the south eastern strategic depth of the Gulf region. Pakistan is the direct neighbor to the full-of-trouble zone of Afghanistan and Iran. That is in addition to Pakistan’s historical ties and strong military cooperation with Turkey. At the same time, Pakistan managed to create balanced relations, especially in the military sector, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, during the past two years. On another level, Qatar has been exceptionally active in reconciling between Turkey and Egypt, following the signing of Al-Ula agreement, in January, that ended four years of Arab boycott to Qatar. However, unfortunately, the rapprochement efforts between Turkey and Egypt fell into a

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The rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, and the prospected rise of other extremist groups in Syria and Iraq, following the completion of US withdrawal, is also a fact that the Middle East, especially Arab Gulf countries, need to prepare for. weird lag, over the past two months. In light of the recent developments in Afghanistan, the already existing alliance of Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan is expected to play a crucial role in cleaning up the mess, after the US completes its withdrawal from the Middle East. Pakistan is the immediate neighbor of Afghanistan and its leadership have an influence over Taliban. Turkey has borders with Syria and Iraq, and got a strong military presence, since many years, in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Qatar is the host of and biggest supporter for Taliban, in the region. Currently, Turkey is insisting on keeping its military troops inside Afghanistan, despite the withdrawal of all other NATO troops, and Taliban’s loud refusal for the continued presence of Turkish forces inside Afghanistan. One day before Taliban takes over Kabul, the Turkish Minister of Defense, Hulusi Akar, was in Pakistan seeking Pakistani

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leadership intermediation in negotiations with Taliban for letting Turkey forces, of about 600 troops, to continue with running Kabul Airport. On 17 August, former Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hikmet Çetin, who also previously served in Afghanistan as part of NATO mission, said that the Turkish Minister of Defense, Hulusi Akar, arranged the departure of Afghan former and present foreign ministers, Renkin Dadfar Spanta and Mohammad Hanif Atmar, from Kabul Airport to Istanbul, after Taliban elements forced them to get off their plane that was supposed to fly them to Doha.

THE STUCK TURKEY-EGYPT RECONCILIATION In Egypt, the political leadership is closely watching the situation in Afghanistan without issuing any statements or taking sides. Egypt has strong economic and military ties with Russia and China, which are showing the biggest and the quickest support to Taliban. At the same time, Egypt does not want to lose its long-term status as a strategic regional ally to the United States. On the same day of Kabul’s fall in the hands of Taliban, William J. Burns, Director of CIA, visited Cairo and met with the Egyptian President El-Sisi. Among the issues they discussed is Afghanistan and the US withdrawal from the Middle East, in general. However, no details were disclosed to the media about the role that Egypt may play in the post-US-withdrawal era. Whatever this role is, Egypt needs to strengthen its relationship with the alliance of Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan to succeed. The Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation process, which inten-

A new coalition which is currently being formed, on a very slow pace though, could mitigate and control most of the strategic threats the region is expected to face, in the next years.

sified between March and May, is currently standing on the brink of failure. Political clashes between the two countries are once again heating up the region. In June, Egypt’s President voiced absolute support to Greece in its historical maritime conflict with Turkey. In August, Turkey’s President Erdogan declared his absolute support to Abiy Ahmed government in Ethiopia, whether for the domestic conflict with Tigray or the regional conflict with Egypt over the Nile River. Also, in Libya, once again, Egypt and Turkey returned to standing against each other, as the divisions between political factions in eastern and western Libya are escalating. When the Turkish military intervened in Libya, in December 2019, Egypt objected the presence of Turkish troops at its western strategic depth. This created a series of clashes that almost reached the brink of a military fight between Egypt and Turkey. As a result, a series of security talks had to be initiated between Egyptian and Turkish intelligence bureaus. This was the first direct dialogue between the two countries in about eight years, during which the two countries were deliberately hurting each other’s economic and political interests. Only in March, talks of reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey began to take a serious form, especially after the success of the Arab Gulf reconciliation, and Qatar’s intervention to reconcile between Egypt and Turkey. At that stage, the dialogue between the two countries moved to the diplomatic track. In May, a meeting was held in Cairo at the level of Egyptian and Turkish deputy foreign ministers in order to hold exploratory talks on reconciliation. Optimism about the success of the reconciliation talks between Egypt and Turkey dominated the scene, between March and May. That is especially after Turkey took deliberate steps to control the propaganda against the Egyptian state and president, driven by the Muslim Brotherhood members, who are living in Turkey. Yet, all of a sudden, the talks were paused and the two countries returned to taking contradicting moves against each other. The second round of exploratory talks between Egypt and Turkey was supposed to be held, in Ankara, in June. Yet, that never happened, and there is no clear official statement explaining why. Some analysts claim that this is due to political pressures on Egypt by UAE. However, there is no single evidence to support that claim. Most likely, the Egyptian court decision, in June, to execute leading figures of the Muslim Brotherhood is the real reason behind the

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US Marine Corps Gen. and the commander of US Central Command General Frank McKenzie (L)Â boards a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft at Hamid Karzai International Airport, as it prepares to depart carrying Afghan civilians evacuating following the Taliban takeover. (Photo: Capt. William Urban/Dod/ Planet Pix via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa)

renewed tensions. There was a strong objection in Turkish media and political circles on the Egyptian court decision. Egyptian leadership saw this as an intervention into a domestic issue by Turkey and thus breaks one of Egypt’s provisions to proceed with reconciliation. Meanwhile, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, UAE took quick steps to fix its relationship with Turkey, given Turkey’s prospected regional role in the post US withdrawal era. Despite the strong rivalry between the two countries on several regional issues, the UAE leadership decided to open a new page with Turkey, through economic cooperation. On August 18th, the UAE National Security Advisor, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, visited Ankara and met with Turkish President Erdogan to re-initiate the relationship between the two countries in light of the recent developments in the region.

CONCLUSION The US withdrawal from the Middle East has become a fact that the Middle East countries have to accept and adapt with, as fast as they can. The rise of Taliban in Afghani-

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stan, and the prospected rise of other extremist groups in Syria and Iraq, following the completion of US withdrawal, is also a fact that the Middle East, especially Arab Gulf countries, need to prepare for. Therefore, accelerating the process of Turkey’s reconciliation with Egypt and Arab Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, has become an urgent priority. The renewed tensions between Turkey and Egypt, in particular, are delaying the formation of a strong coalition that can lead the region through the difficult decade to come. Leting the political rift between Egypt and Turkey to crack again, at this critical time, shall expose the entire Middle East region to an existential threat. Unifying Turkey and Egypt regional visions and missions is critical to protect the Arab Gulf region, the only survivor of the Arab Spring aftermath, against the storm of uncertainties to be blown by the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and the other tragedies expected after the completion of US withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, in the near future. Dalia Ziada is an Egyptian author and Director of the Liberal Democracy Institute. Her work covers military affairs, political Islamism, and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa. Tweets at @daliaziada.

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Syrian Refugees Call Out Turkish Politicians’ Agenda “Refugees Shouldn’t be a Political Tool in Next Elections”

By Jiwan Soz – Istanbul Turkish security forces have arrested more than 120 people since August 13, over attacks against Syrian refugees and their properties in the capital Ankara, following the death of a Turkish citizen in a fight with a Syrian refugee. The incident triggered riots in neighborhoods housing Syrians in Ankara, which took place repeatedly, as fights between

Turkish and Syrian people have led to eviction of all refugees from some Turkish neighborhoods in cities of Syrian majority. Recent riots erupted over the death of a Turkish citizen named Emirhan Yalçın who was stabbed to death by Syrian refugees in Ankara, more than two weeks ago. Later, Turkish authorities arrested at least two Syrian refugees for participating in killing Yalçın, whose death triggered public

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A Turkish national flag hangs on a fence as Syrian refugees wait for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s arrival at the Nizip refugee camp near Gaziantep, Turkey, 23 April 2016. (EPA/ SEDAT SUNA)

outrage in Altındağ district where he was murdered. The district’s residents took to the streets, stoning apartments that they thought belonged to Syrians, and set ablaze number of cars that might belong to Syrians as well. Security authorities detained 72 people for “enticing violence” against Syrian refugees. They also arrested 76 others for participating in the attacks against Syrian houses and properties, according to the Turkish ministry of interior which also revealed that 150 of those detained have criminal records of robbery and drug trafficking. The riots once again pushed back the case of Syrian refugees into the spotlight in Turkey’s political circles, as it has been a point of dispute between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on one side and opposition parties such as Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition party, the pro-Kurds Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and the rightist Good Party, on the other side. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pledged to make the return of Syrian refugees to their home country “voluntary”, the pro-Kurds party demanded that attacks against Syrians must stop and defended “coexistence”. Meantime, the Good Party’s leader Meral Akşener, asked the Turkish President to permit her to visit Damascus to discuss the return of Syrians to their country with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Although Akşener opposes the existence of Syrian refugees in Turkey, she backed off from her stances and said that “Turkish people are not hostile to refugees in our country.” This is the first time she has taken this stance, as she repeatedly called for evicting refugees from Turkey immediately in the past. “Events that took place in Turkey, especially in Ankara, are a result of divisive efforts aimed at creating rifts inside Turkish society,” Abdullah Resul Demir, Chairman of International Refugee Right Association (IRRA), told Majalla. He added that, “Someone is constantly trying to get political mileage from this. They use refugees as political card. In fact, this situation does not reflect the general point of view of Turkish society on refugees.” “The fact that such incidents occur after the racist rhetoric of a politician is the biggest evidence of that. Moreover, it is understood that many of the protesters did not reside in Altındağ the setting of the incident in question,” he explained. “Unfortunately, such negative news finds its place in the media very quickly. Especially in social media,

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Recent riots once again pushed back the case of Syrian refugees into the spotlight in Turkey’s political circles, as it has been a point of dispute between the ruling Justice and Development Party and opposition parties. some malicious people present such negativities to the society in a different way with a racist approach. The role of the media here is that they should not publish such events without investigating the background and cause.” Demir added that such publications serve “malicious” purposes, and recommended that it is important for the media to “include positive news about refugees.” “Although a certain part of the society does not want refugees in Turkey, we do not think that this is the majority. No matter what, refugees should not be used as a political tool in the next elections. Otherwise, we may continue to see such tensions in our country,” he pointed out. He also confirmed, “Refugees will stay in our country under both local and international laws if the persecution and war environment continues in the region they came from.” An estimate of more than 3.6 million refugees in Turkey is a contentious topic between the ruling party and its opponents. The former party said that it came to power without pledging to evict refugees, in explicit criticism to CHP, whose leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has called on Syrians to come to Turkey “but only as tourists.” In 2016, Turkey signed an agreement with the European Union in which it pledged to stop the flow of refugee to Europe, but both parties to the agreements are currently amending its provisions. Turkey has periodically received millions of dollars from the EU and international organizations for sheltering millions of Syrian refugees on its land since the eruption of the Syrian civil war which has entered its second decade last March. Turkish territories constitute a main crossing point for Syrian, Iranian, Afghan and other refugees who aspire to enter European countries.

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Lebanese Lives Threatened by Monopoly Mafia Stories of Economic, Social and Psychological Toll of Lebanon’s Worst Crisis By Latifa el Hassanyeh – Beirut Today, Lebanese citizens are resisting the most difficult financial collapse and massive corruption since the establishment of their state. Despite the wars that ravaged the past, economic and health experts consider this crisis as the most devastating one. They say that Lebanese people are now facing a daily

risk of being murdered, emphasizing that “the August curse is chasing the citizens.” After Beirut’s massive explosion last year, dozens of people died last week as a result of the explosion of fuel tanks stored by the monopoly mafias backed by the authorities. Previously, since 2019, the lives of the Lebanese have changed in a shocking and accelerating manner, as the state fell into the trap of a corruption that lasted for years

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due to the bankruptcy of the current caretaker government and its failure to pay international debts and to take the necessary measures to gain international support. Lebanon, which used to have Arab and international support, is now considered untrustworthy due to rulers who run the country with corrupt administrations. They have placed the most important needs of the citizen in the hands of the “cartels” and the “mafias” of the monopoly, which control the Lebanese people. The mafias sell vital materials to the black market, or withhold them from citizens from time to time based on profit requirements.

LEBANON RANKS 1st IN WORLD’S ECONOMIC CRISES

A man with severe burns sustained in an overnight fuel tank explosion in Lebanon’s northern region of Akkar is carried on a stretcher from a helicopter, after being transported for treatment at the specialized unit of the Geitaoui hospital in the capital Beirut (Photo by ANWAR AMRO/AFP)

A report issued by the World Bank last June revealed that Lebanon is suffering from a severe and prolonged economic crisis in which the country is mired in an economic breakdown that ranks among the top three most severe economic crisis in the world since the mid-nineteenth century. For more than a year and a half, Lebanon has been facing complex challenges such as the largest economic and financial crisis in peacetime, COVID-19, and the massive explosion at the Port of Beirut. The World Bank estimated that in 2020 real GDP contracted by 20.3 percent, on the back of a 6.7 percent contraction in 2019. In fact, Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$55 billion in 2018 to an estimated US$33 billion in 2020, while GDP per capita fell by around 40 percent in dollar terms. Such a brutal contraction is usually associated with conflicts or wars. Monetary and financial conditions remain highly volatile and, within the context of a multiple exchange rate system, the World Bank average exchange rate depreciated by 129 percent in 2020. The effect on prices has resulted in surging inflation, averaging 84.3 percent in 2020. Subject to extraordinarily high economic uncertainty, the World Bank report expected that the real GDP will shrink by 9.5 percent this year.

LEBANON IS THREATENED WITH TOTAL DARKNESS ELECTRICITY FOR THE RICH ONLY! As for the repercussions on the citizen’s living and economic conditions, the economic and financial researcher Dr. Mahmoud Jabai revealed to Majalla that Lebanon is now trapped in a near-total darkness due to the lack of fuel, and will soon be threatened by a complete darkness

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Since 2019, the lives of the Lebanese have changed in a shocking and accelerating manner, as the state fell into the trap of a corruption that lasted for years due to the bankruptcy of the current caretaker government. because of its shortage of electricity generators. This situation is the result of fuel no longer being available due to the suspension of credits by the Central Bank of Lebanon, which is no longer able to provide financial support because the amount of dollars it has is equal to the size of the mandatory reserve. Jabai said that even when the Central Bank of Lebanon provided a hundred billion dollars to be used to subsidize gasoline and fuel, all of the money was spent between the monopoly mafias and storage, and the resources were sold to the public in the black market, so the people did not benefit from anything. Rather, people are suffering from humiliating queues waiting for a small amount that is not enough to satisfy their needs. Jabai pointed out that Lebanon is heading towards total darkness in the next stage, and this will have serious repercussions in several areas. At the economic level all electrical production plants will stop working, which will cause production losses and high costs. Companies will turn to the black market to generate electricity at an incredible cost, which means that fuel prices will rise dramatically. As for living standards, Jabai explained that the purchasing power of the people will decrease, which will hinder them from obtaining necessities, including electricity. He said that “People literally started to sleep on the surface of their balconies to avoid the heat.” Jabai believes that the reason for Lebanon’s lack of electricity is due to the corrupt authority that rules Lebanon, in addition to the monopoly cartels of merchants, clarifying that the thefts and deals carried out by the monopoly cartels ruled by the governing parties excluded any external offers to produce electricity with the aim of controlling the market.

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Jabai offers solutions that may save Lebanon from its total darkness and fill its deficit in terms of hydrocarbons by reforming the available refineries, as there are two important refineries in Lebanon, Al-Zahrani and AlBadawi. But the country lacks the ability to refine oil because operations were deliberately suspended by the monopoly mafias, so that Lebanon could not produce any energy source. Thus, the ruling organization is banning international offers to activate electricity production, such as those from Germany and Russia, which offered to invest and restart refineries that would have enabled the country to save two billion dollars annually, with the possibility of providing profits of 6-8 billion dollars from oil refining.

When the Central Bank of Lebanon provided a hundred billion dollars to be used to subsidize gasoline and fuel, all of the money was spent between the monopoly mafias and storage, so people did not benefit from anything.

On the other hand, the financial and economic researcher considers that Lebanon can generate electric power by rehabilitating the suspended refineries to refine crude oil and generate electric power. This will save from 60 to 70 percent of the overall fuel costs incurred by the state treasury, in addition to providing electricity 16-20 hours per day for 6 months. “However, with the current situation of the refineries, Lebanon will not be able to refine oil and benefit from foreign donations, as happened in the case of the recent Iraqi oil gift, as Lebanon did not benefit from it at all.” Moreover, Jabai believes that the Lebanese government should boost competition for external importing bids and prevent the monopolizing authorities from controlling fuel, so as to maintain a larger quantity at a lower cost. The Lebanese today are dramatically facing the consequences of lifting fossil fuel subsidies. Warning against a difficult period ahead of the Lebanese, Jabai pointed out that there is no guarantee that goods will be available even after the subsidy is lifted, as the collapse of the purchasing power of the individual will not bear the burden of electricity costs. He added that electricity will be available only to the rich people.

STORIES OF LEBANESE PEOPLE UNDER ECONOMIC CRISIS More than half of Lebanon’s population live below the poverty line, as the bulk of the labor force – who are paid in pounds - suffer from a decline in purchasing ability. With the high unemployment rate, an increasing propor-

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Lebanese army soldiers and Red Cross members are seen near the site of a fuel tanker explosion in Akkar in northern Lebanon, August 15, 2021. (REUTERS/Omar Ibrahim)

Lebanese Red Cross personnel transport an injured person to an ambulance, after a fuel tanker explosion in Akkar, Lebanon August 15, 2021. (Courtesy of Lebanese Red Cross / via REUTERS)

tion of families has difficulty accessing basic services, including health care. The Lebanese wake up every day to a new crisis in the basic vital facilities that threatens their living, while they suffer from queues waiting to get diesel gasoline, all while the specter of collapse looms over their quest for health care, food and job security. People are living without medicine, struggling to obtain fuel, and suffering from a lack of electricity, while the cries of hospitals denouncing the lack of diesel and

More than half of Lebanon’s population live below the poverty line, as the bulk of the labor force – who are paid in pounds - suffer from a decline in purchasing ability. electricity increase. In addition, patients with cancer and other incurable diseases are running out of medicine, leaving them vulnerable to death at any moment. On the other hand, and due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Lebanese are working remotely, while the permanent electricity outage threatens their work. Some of them were dismissed due to their inability to deliver their tasks on time. Some citizens spoke to Majalla, presenting their bitter stories about the crisis. Rana, 33, who works from Lebanon as a financial auditor for a company outside the country, explained how she was fired because of her inability to deliver her work assignments within the specified deadlines “due to the constant power cuts where I live and the generator owner’s control over the rationing hours that have prevented me from completing my duty as required.” Majed, 40, an engineer and a father of two, described how he was forced to double his working time to about

Psychiatrist and university professor Dr. Carol Saadeh.

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18 hours a day for more than one institution, due to the collapse of the Lebanese pound and the decrease in purchasing power. As for Samar, 40, a housewife, she told Majalla that she is subjected to domestic violence by her husband because of the economic crisis. She pointed out that after her husband was dismissed from his job, he became remarkably hostile and violent. The 14 -year-old Joanna has another story. Because of the economic pressure that has affected her family, her mother was no longer able to give her supervision as she is also suffering from the consequences of the crisis and works for long hours to support her three children in the absence of the father who died years ago. Joanna (a pseudonym) has become the victim of extortion from her teenage classmates. She used to spend all her time on social media to find someone to talk to during quarantine, as she explained to Majalla. She said, “No one was listening to me, my mother was always late working to pay household expenses, and my brothers were in a constant state of tension.” She explained to us how a group of friends tempted her to send videos and then threatened to tell her uncle (conservative and authoritarian, as she described him) in case she did not comply with their demands. Joanna attempted suicide to escape her reality, but she was saved at the last moment.

PSYCHOLOGICAL REPERCUSSIONS What the Lebanese are going through today may be

People have the ability to overcome difficulties and psychological pressures through the social solidarity that appears in every crisis, but accumulation of harsh circumstances may make people suffer from chronic psychological conditions.

harder than peoples’ ability to bear, but it is not the first time that the Lebanese people have suffered from crises. Lebanon has been embroiled for years in civil and external wars which have had a severe psychological impact. Many of them are still suffering from the effects of war in terms of their mental health. However, health experts believe that the Lebanese have the ability to overcome difficulties, due to their love of life, high resilience, and love for their homeland. To find out the impact of the crisis on the mental and psychological health of the Lebanese, Majalla spoke to the psychiatrist and university professor Dr. Carol Saadeh, who pointed out that people have the ability to overcome difficulties and psychological pressures through the social solidarity that appears in every crisis. She warned against an accumulation of harsh circumstances that may make people suffer from chronic psychological conditions that are not linked to a temporary situation. Saadeh said that the recent escalations in the country have undoubtedly left the citizenry in a state of “posttraumatic stress disorder,” especially due to the coincidence of crises, from the bloody Beirut explosion, to the financial collapse, to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent explosion that killed tens of young people. She added, “In addition to the chronic psychological pressure, the explosion took place and affected every Lebanese. It has resulted in cases of stress, anxiety and depression, all of which were reflected in all ages, especially children and adolescents.” Saadeh pointed to the emergence of previously inconspicuous signs, such as an increase in violence, excessive nervousness and aggressiveness, all of which result from disturbances due to feeling of insecurity. She said that the Lebanese harness their “defensive elements” in order to maintain their composure and mental health. Here, Saadeh believes that there are people who may show collapse, psychological fatigue, and psychological disorders such as depression, anxiety and other symptoms. Others focus on adopting their defense mechanisms, and denial of reality is one of the tools of these mechanisms. While there are still no accurate statistics for the number of patients who take medication to treat psychological and mental illnesses, Saadeh explained that the percentage of people suffering from depression and other mental illnesses should not be underestimated. She noted that many may not resort to a doctor for advice about the required medications, and warned against the consequences of taking medicines without prescription which may

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Demonstrations against corruption started on October 19th, 2019. (AP)

result in addiction and other serious problems. She stressed that psychological counseling is necessary for many people because of what they have suffered recently. Accordingly, she called on the Lebanese state to provide counseling and psychological follow-up to treat the post-traumatic stress disorder of social and economic collapse. She also advised citizens to exercise and walk, maintain a healthy diet, get enough hours of sleep and

People are living without medicine, struggling to obtain fuel, and suffering from a lack of electricity, while the cries of hospitals denouncing the lack of diesel and electricity increase. return to nature to maintain their inner peace. She also called on them to pray and meditate. She explained that every person should search for things that enhance their love for life and look at it with passion. She also advised teens to pursue activities they love and to be more active in nature. Lebanon today is surrounded by wholesale complications, in terms of the faltering formation of the government, the corruption of powerful parties, the use of surplus power by some, and the monopoly of livelihood resources by others, leaving the citizen helpless and immersed alone in the crises, hoping one day Beirut might rise from under the rubble.

Economic and financial researcher Dr. Mahmoud Jabai.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1866- August- 20/08/2021

Bill Gates: No Longer the FourthRichest Person in the World after Divorce

www.majalla.com

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Israel Sends a Warning to the World Studies Reveal Children are at Greater Risk for Delta Variant By Majalla On 31 December 2019, WHO was informed of cases of pneumonia from an unknown source in Wuhan City, China. A novel coronavirus was identified as the cause by Chinese authorities on 7 January 2020 and was temporarily named “2019-nCoV.”

Since then, COVID keeps surprising us with its variants. We wake up daily to new studies that enlighten our path, but unfortunately we get traumatized later by other papers that reveal contradictory facts. Recent studies from Israel, Canada, America and research centers worldwide, brought out new devastating theories that imply we will be living for a long

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time with COVID-19, and in a way that vaccines will not do much to save lives. The latest focus regarding Delta variant is on children. Recent papers assured that the variant could be transmitted by children. Majalla went over these recent studies and came up with surprising information for the welfare of your health as well as that of your children.

A WARNING TO THE WORLD

Israel begins coronavirus vaccination campaign for 12 to -15year-olds. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)

Israel recently sent a warning to the world underscoring the extraordinary transmissibility of the Delta variant and stoking concerns about the benefits of vaccination over time. The country has one of the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19. 78% of Israelis 12 years and older are fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. However, with the highest infection rates at nearly 650 new cases daily per million people, the vaccinations only blunt but do not defeat Delta. Ran Balicer, Chief Innovation Officer at Clalit Health Services (CHS), Israel’s largest health maintenance organization, said: “If it can happen here, it can probably happen everywhere.” Nevertheless, Science Magazine revealed studies that suggest boosters might have a broader value. Researchers have shown that boosting induces a prompt surge in antibodies which are needed in the nose and throat as a crucial first line of defense against infection.

Earlier in the pandemic, some scientists suggested the risk of transmission of COVID- 19 declined with age. But this assumption was likely skewed by the fact that lockdowns and social distancing meant young children had very few social encounters.

ated with high viral load and is said to evade vaccineinduced immunity. The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has also stated that the Delta variant is more than twice as contagious as previous variants and can lead to severe illnesses in unvaccinated people, including children. Viruses are constantly changing through the emergence of mutations. When a virus has one or more new mutations, the mutation is called a mutant or mutated strain of the original virus. So far, the SARSCoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 has produced several worrying new strains in the United States. These mutations include: • Delta (B.1.617.2). This strain is the most common strain of COVID-19 now in the United States. Its abilCONCERN ABOUT MUTATED STRAINS ity to infect is nearly twice that of previous mutated strains, and it can also cause more severe disease. The Scientists believe that each variant is initially a Vari- greatest risk of spreading the infection is among people who have not been vaccinated. However, people ant of Interest (VOI). According to WHO, a VOI is a Variant of Concern who have had a symptomatic infection despite receiv(VOC) if, through a comparative assessment, it has ing the full vaccine can infect others. This strain may been demonstrated to be associated with the follow- reduce the efficacy of some monoclonal antibody therapies and the antibody efficacy of the COVID-19 ing: - Increase in transmissibility or detrimental change in vaccine. • Alpha. (B.1.1.7). This COVID-19 strain appears to COVID-19 epidemiology; - Increase in virulence or change in clinical disease be easier to spread, with an approximately 50% increase in transmission compared to strains that circupresentation; or, - Decrease in effectiveness of public health and social lated previously. This strain may also increase the risk measures or available diagnostics, vaccines, therapeu- of hospitalization and death. • Gamma (P.1). This strain reduces the effectiveness tics. With respect to these conditions laid down by the of some monoclonal antibody-containing drugs and WHO, the Delta variant has been termed a Variant of the antibodies from previous infection with COVConcern, given that it is more transmissible, associ- ID-19 or the COVID-19 vaccine. • Beta (B.1.351). This strain appears to be easier to

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spread, with an approximately 50% increase in transmission compared to previously circulating strains. This strain also reduces the efficacy of some monoclonal antibody-containing drugs and antibodies from a previous COVID-19 infection or COVID-19 vaccine. While research indicates that COVID-19 vaccines are slightly less effective against mutated strains, vaccines still appear to be able to provide protection against severe cases of COVID-19. For example: • Early research in the United Kingdom indicates

Since only some countries have approved vaccination for children, the only way to protect your children from the Delta variant is by following COVIDappropriate behavior – wearing a mask, practicing proper hand hygiene, staying home, and maintaining social distance.

that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine for COVID-19 are 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in the case of the Delta strain. The vaccine is also 96% effective in preventing a very severe case of the Delta variant. Research has also shown that the vaccine is 93% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in the case of the Alpha strain. • Early research in Canada indicates that taking a single dose of Moderna for COVID-19 is 72% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in the case of the Delta strain. A single dose of the vaccine is 96% effective in preventing severe disease from the Delta strain. • The Janssen/Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine is 85% effective in preventing severe disease caused by the Delta strain, according to data from Johnson & Johnson. Currently, the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) say that people who have been fully vaccinated in the United States do not need a booster shot. This is because people who are fully vaccinated are protected from severe illness and death from COVID-19, and this protection includes mutated strains of COVID-19. Most hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 occur in people who have not been vaccinated. However, manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines continue to conduct research and testing on booster doses.

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A healthcare worker administers a COVID19test at a testing site in Mifflin Square Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. ,12 2021. Photographer: Kriston Jae Bethel/ Bloomberg.

Simulated COVID19patient in the ICU room (Indonesia). Photo by Mufid Majnun

CHILDREN SPREAD COVID-19 VARIANTS While all children are susceptible to infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, the percentage of children who get sick when infected with it is lower than is observed in adults. Most children develop mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Earlier in the pandemic, some scientists suggested the risk of transmission of COVID-19 declined with age. But this assumption was likely skewed by the fact that lockdowns and social distancing meant young children had very few social encounters. Hence, the latest study analyzed public health data from Ontario, Canada, to identify COVID clusters in which a child was the primary case within households. The study revealed that babies and toddlers are probably more likely to spread disease to parents and caregivers because they are directly attended in close contact. “The 0-to-3-year-old child is held differently, is cuddled,” said Dr. Paul Offit, Director of the Vaccine Education Center and Professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Scientists point out that the Delta variant is twice as infectious as previous strains, so there is an increased risk of infection for everyone, including children. Breakthrough infections may occur in

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The greatest risk of spreading the infection is among people who have not been vaccinated. However, people who have had a symptomatic infection despite receiving the full vaccine can infect others. those who are vaccinated, but these infections are typically much less severe. They are usually an upper respiratory infection like a cold or the flu. Infections that occur in those who are unvaccinated are far more severe.

HOW LIKELY ARE CHILDREN TO GET SICK? According to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Association of Children’s Hospitals, children in the United States account for approximately 13% of all COVID-19 cases. Research indicates that children under 10 to 14 years of age are less

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likely to contract COVID-19 than people aged 20 and over. However, some children become very ill when infected with COVID-19. According to the CDC, they may need to be hospitalized, treated in an intensive care unit, or put on a ventilator to help them breathe. In addition, children with underlying conditions, such as obesity, diabetes, and asthma, may be at greater risk of developing a serious illness with COVID-19 infection. Children with congenital heart disease, genetic conditions, or conditions that affect the nervous system or metabolism may also be more likely to develop a serious illness with COVID-19 infection.

Children with underlying conditions, such as obesity, diabetes, and asthma, may be at greater risk of developing a serious illness with COVID19infection.

Research indicates that the rate of COVID-19 infections among black children, whether they are Hispanic or not, is higher than the rate of cases among non-Hispanic white children. Some children continue to experience symptoms of COVID-19 even after the initial recovery. In rare cases, some children can develop serious conditions that appear to be linked to COVID-19.

HOW ARE CHILDREN AFFECTED BY COVID-19? Children under one year of age may be at greater risk of severe symptoms of COVID-19 infection than older children. This is likely because their immunity is not fully mature and their airways are smaller, which makes them more susceptible to respiratory problems in the event of infection with respiratory viruses. Newborns can be infected with COVID-19 during birth or due to infection being transmitted to them after birth by caregivers who are infected with the virus. If you have a COVID-19 infection or have symptoms similar to it and are waiting for test results, it is recommended during your hospital stay and after birth that you wear a cloth face covering and clean your hands when caring for your newborn. Placing your newborn’s cot next to your bed

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A mother walks her daughter on the first day of school at West Tampa Elementary School in Tampa, Florida, U.S. (Reuters)

Back to school: Students at Wilder Elementary School in Louisville, KY, Kentucky, U.S. (Reuters)

while you are in the hospital is acceptable, but it is also recommended that you keep a reasonable distance between you and your baby whenever possible. When you follow these steps, the risk of a newborn being infected with COVID-19 is low. But if you have severe COVID-19, you may be temporarily separated from your newborn. For infants with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic, or who cannot be tested and do not have symptoms, the doctor may decide to discharge them from the hospital, depending on the circumstances. Doctors recommend that child caregivers wear face masks and wash their hands to protect themselves. It is important to follow up continually with your child’s doctor for 14 days, either over the phone, virtual medical review, or directly in the clinic. Children who test negative for COVID-19 can leave the hospital for home.

DELTA VARIANT SYMPTOMS FOR CHILDREN

Delta variant, headache, sore throat, runny nose, and fever are some of most common symptoms reported in Delta variant cases. Apart from those symptoms, for children an increase in the number of multisystem inflammatory syndrome cases (MIS-C) has remained concerning for parents all around the world. The symptoms may include: - Headache - Joint pain - Nausea and vomiting - Abdominal pain - Rash - Chest pain - Fatigue Since only some countries have approved vaccination for children, the only way to protect your children from the Delta variant is by following COVIDappropriate behavior – wearing a mask, practicing proper hand hygiene, staying home, and maintaining social distance are of the utmost importance. During such critical times, it is also important to ensure that you take care of your child’s mental health. COVID anxiety is real in adults and kids alike.

According to the Yale School of Medicine in the United States, Delta variant symptoms may be slight- Sources: Tribune News Service, WHO, The Journal ly different from those of normal COVID-19. While of the American, Medical Association, Mayo Clinic, cough and loss of smell are less common with the and The Lancet.

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Get Ready for “CODA” The Feel-good Movie That Will Emotionally Destroy You By Glenn Whipp

eral months later, that review seems insufficient. “CODA” warrants at least half a dozen sobbing My first review of “CODA,” Siân Heder’s sub- emojis, followed by a dozen hearts and a couple lime coming-of-age story of a child of deaf adults of bouquets of flowers and, I don’t know, maybe (the film’s title is that very acronym), came right a peach and an eggplant (or whatever the kids after watching it on the opening night of this use these days) for the number of times the movyear’s virtual Sundance Film Festival and con- ie emphasizes the parents’ spectacularly healthy sisted of a message sent to a colleague containing sex life. But as you’re reading this, you might be interthe sobbing emoji repeated three times. Having had the chance to revisit the movie sev- ested in ... I don’t know ... words. So let me say

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From left, actors Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin, writer/director Sian Heder, actors Troy Kotsur and Emilia Jones attend the Sundance Film Festival Award Winner “CODA” photocall at the London hotel, in West Hollywood, California, July 30, 2021. (Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images/TNS)

that “CODA” contains a great many elements familiar to this kind of movie. It’s about a restless teenager trying to break free from her parents’ expectations, helped along by an inspirational teacher, putting her on the path to a tense, makeor-break musical audition that’s followed by an emotional catharsis that will wound even the most hardened soul. But because Heder — whose previous work includes the Netflix series “Orange Is the New Black” and “Glow” and feature “Tallulah” — is so adept at establishing the emotional bonds between the film’s close-knit family, the presence of all these conventions doesn’t matter. Much. You might find yourself in the film’s final 20 minutes begging for mercy as the story careens from a heart-to-heart talk between mother and daughter to a beautiful moment between father and daughter to the use of Joni Mitchell’s “Both Sides Now” in a way that literally embodies the lyrics “tears and fears and feeling proud/ To say, ‘I love you’ right out loud.” But you will not mind because Heder has earned the right to destroy you emotionally. “CODA” focuses on Ruby (Emilia Jones), a high school senior in Gloucester, Massachusetts, who wakes up before the sun rises so she can help her father (Troy Kotsur) and older brother Leo (Daniel Durant) on the family fishing boat before heading to school to fall asleep at her desk and endure taunts that she smells like haddock. Ruby is the only hearing person in her family, which puts the weight of responsibility on her shoulders, whether negotiating the price for the fish they catch or translating to her parents the doctor’s diagnosis as to why their private parts feel like they’re on fire. (Marlee Matlin plays the mom, and she and Kotsur possess the kind of harmony that deserves its own movie.) Ruby loves singing and she’s good enough that her choir teacher, Bernardo (Eugenio Derbez), offers to train her so she can audition for the for the prestigious Berklee College of Music. Bernardo, or, should I say — as he does — Bernarrrrrdo (if you can’t roll your Rs, just call him Mr. V) also pairs Ruby with the cute boy (Ferdia Walsh-Peelo) she’s been crushing on for a duet of Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell’s “You’re All I Need to Get By.” It pretty much guarantees that they’ll fall in love because, singing that

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One thing that separates “CODA” from every other coming-ofage movie is the way that Heder seamlessly moves between speaking and American Sign Language in the family scenes. song, how could they not? The other certainty is that Ruby’s desire to leave home and pursue her dreams will conflict with her family’s need for her to stick around and help. One thing that separates “CODA” from every other coming-of-age movie is the way that Heder seamlessly moves between speaking and American Sign Language in the family scenes. The signing is subtitled, rather than translated, highlighting its vibrancy as a form of communication. And because we see mother, father, sister and brother communicating with this energy and intimacy, our understanding of the family — its dynamics, the love they share and what’s at stake if Ruby leaves — is heightened. That means you care about these people — a lot. Which leads to the aforementioned waterworks when Ruby, played by British actress Jones with an authenticity that captures the character’s sensitivity and youthful impulsiveness, sets out on the final part of one journey so that she can begin another. As Joni’s song puts it: Something’s lost, but something’s gained. Have some tissue handy. This article was originally published by Los Angeles Times. Visit latimes.com.

‘CODA’

MPAA rating: PG-13 (for strong sexual content and language, drug use) Running time: 1:51 Where to watch: Now playing in select theaters and streaming on Apple TV+

Bill Gates: No Longer the Fourth-Richest Person in the World after Divorce By Majalla Illustration by Ali Mandalawi The news of the divorce of Bill Gates, founder of the American company Microsoft, from his wife, Melinda French, who co-chairs the board of directors of the largest private charitable foundation in the world, with a capital of more than 35.8 billion dollars, has become the focus of all communities in the world. Melinda French Gates is now worth an estimated $5.7 billion after a fresh set of stock was transferred from ex-husband. The pair are in the process of dividing up their assets after their divorce was finalized. The couple met at Microsoft in 1987 and married in 1994, but announced last May that they would end their marriage after 27 years saying, “We no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in this next stage of our lives.” The couple’s net worth is about $152 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which means that each of them could be worth about $76 billion after the divorce. In his comments during an interview about his divorce, Gates said, “It’s a sad event... Melinda’s a great person and that partnership we had coming to an end is a source of great personal sadness.” Gates and Melinda agreed to continue running the Gates Foundation together. If after two years they decide that they cannot continue in their roles, Melinda will resign her position as co-chair and trustee. Gates will then buy her share of the

foundation and she will receive resources from him to carry out her charitable work as part of the agreement. Gates said Melinda’s existence “would definitely be the best thing for the organization.” He added, “Melinda has incredible strengths that have helped the organization be even better. We have always enjoyed working together.” The co-founder of the US computer software giant Microsoft has worked hard to promote health care and fight poverty around the world and is now seeking to focus his attention today primarily on how to save the planet. Some time ago, Gates published a book entitled “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster?” in which Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe. In the introduction to his book, he says he has spent a decade investigating the causes and effects of climate change. While promoting the book, Gates told BBC News: “Solving climate change would be the most amazing thing humanity has ever done.” He said that compared to the sacrifices and efforts required to properly thwart a major climate crisis that ends life, ending COVID-19 is “very easy.” He added, “The epidemic will end because these amazing vaccines are designed within a year, and we are trying to scale them up and adapt to the variants.” On the other hand, not everyone thinks Gates is the right person to talk about the issue. Rolf Schaar of Greenpeace USA told Wired Magazine

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that while the book focuses on avoiding climate disaster, the author is not doing enough to change his personal habits. His investment in private jets and Microsoft’s AI contracts with Exxon, Chevron and BP to extract more fossil fuels add to the crisis, and do not solve it. Billionaires like Gates need to lead by example, or they will not be taken seriously. Bill was born in Seattle, Washington, in 1955 and from a young age showed a keen interest in reading. His parents enrolled him in the Lakeside School, where he was introduced to the computer for the first time, grew his passion for computers and software technology, and began to hone his programming talents together with his friend Paul Allen. While in the Lakeside School classes, Bill was able to write a program in the BASIC language that allowed computer users to play against the computer, and this was the first result of his passion for programming. He enrolled at Harvard University but left after two years to found in 1975 a software company called “Microsoft,” which means small computer software. Microsoft’s software was popular among hobbyists who used to get copies of those programs before they were released on the market and distribute them for free. After disagreements with these hobbyists and disagreements with MITS over software rights, Bill Gates moved Microsoft’s headquarters to Bellevue, Washington in 1979 when the company began creating software in various formats for multiple computer companies.

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Motorcycle Lover Dania Akeel The First Saudi Woman to Participate and Succeed in the World Cup for Cross-Country Rallies By Sarah Gamal Years ago, it was uncommon to see a Saudi girl wearing a helmet and riding a motorcycle and even participating in competitions. But the changes that have occurred in the Kingdom and the freedoms that women have recently obtained have opened the way for Dania and coming generations to enter new fields and excel in them. Saudi Dania Akeel, 32, a motorcycle rider, crowned her first participation in an international event in Europe by taking second place in the T3 category, as part of the sixth round of the World Cup for Cross-Country Baja held in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, during the period 5 to 8 August, consolidating her lead in this category. Akeel set the second-fastest time in the first pass for a distance of 88.30 km, and took second place overall in her category, with a total distance of 861 km, including a 682 km special stage. Akeel participated in the Hungarian Baja, which spanned over three days of competition, along with French expert navigator Charles Cuypers, who also holds the position of CRO rider affairs officer position in the Amauri Sports Organization (A.S.O), which oversees the organization of the event. On the other hand, World Baja Desert Rally Championship witnessed the participation of 20 drivers representing several countries, including several Saudis led by Yasser bin Saedan, Yazid Al-Rajhi, Saleh Al-Saif, as well as motorcyclists Haitham Al-Tuwaijri and Faisal Al-Sawy. Dania Akeel finished the competition in 14th place in the overall rankings, and second in the T3 category, with a total time of 9.11.42 hours, which allowed her to retain the overall lead of the cup. «After reaching the finish line of Baja Hungary in Varpalota,

I am very happy that I was able to reach the second place and collect some points to add to the championship. Charles and I were in great harmony, and he was clear, direct, and precise,» Akeel said in televised statements. It was her first Baja since the Jordan Baja with her new French team, where she won 1st place in the T3 category of Jordan International Rally; achieving her 2nd successive victory in the 4th round of FIA World Cup for CrossCountry Baja and the 2nd round of the FIA Bajas World Cup of 323 km long. By occupying 14th place with navigator Charles Cuypers, Akeel scored points that qualify her for the BAJA World Championships in the next tournament. There are 3 rounds left for this season›s championship, in which Akeel will participate in order to collect more points. The Saudi driver and motorcyclist loved desert buggies since childhood, but she dreamed of riding motorcycles professionally when she grew up because it requires commitment, fitness, as well as disciplined mental and physical training, especially since her father is a motorcycle enthusiast. She was riding bicycles in sandy areas in the manner of international competitions that are held in the Gulf countries and the world. After some years she achieved her dream when she participated as the first Saudi to obtain a professional motorcycle racing license. She started the racing season in the UAE and won a trophy for new contestants (Rocky Cup) to encourage beginners, then participated in the Bahrain season which was cut short in February 2020 because of an accident in Bahrain in which she suffered a fracture in her pelvis and had to return to Jeddah for treatment. She had to stop practicing motorsport, explaining that she got over it during her

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Dania Akeel

rehabilitation and wrote a book about her journey and her race. Despite her injury that season, she won the Best Rising Driver of the Year award in Dubai. Moreover, she participated in previous races in UAE and Bahrain, stressing that the men competing with her supported her a lot and no one made her feel that she was in the wrong place. Dania applied for a learner›s license, practiced with it for months, and participated in the United Arab Emirates Championship as the first stop in her sports career. Dania Akeel, the first and only Saudi woman in the world of motorcycles, aspires to participate in the Dakar Rally 2022, which will start next January, and to be the first Gulf woman to participate in the international rally. She has been trained by international professional trainers in this field in the UAE and Spain, and she confirmed that she has received great support and attention from the Ministry of Sports and the Saudi Federation of Cars and Motorcycles. It is worth noting that Dania Akeel holds a master’s degree in international business from Britain, and she started her first steps in motorsports in 2019. After completing her studies in Britain, she returned to work in the Middle

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Dania Akeel, the first and only Saudi woman in the world of motorcycles, aspires to participate in the Dakar Rally 2022, which will start next January, and to be the first Gulf woman to participate in the international rally. East in Dubai, UAE. She bought a Ducati Panigale 959 motorcycle and used to ride it every weekend. She had the opportunity to participate in a Local Ducati Championship there after completing the necessary tests. Dania says that the world of motorcycles is a very difficult road that requires strength, daring, and an adventurous spirit, especially for women who need a strong will because this sport is usually practiced by men. However, she never hesitated to move forward towards fulfilling her hopes, because Saudi women are currently living in an era of women›s empowerment. Dania Akeel encourages Saudi women to fulfill their wishes as long as these wishes benefit women and society and help in their development to achieve progress which is recorded in the name of the nation. She also hopes that Saudi women will find the opportunity to realize their dreams in all sports and in every field.

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The Benefits of Volunteering, Without Leaving Home The Profound Question of ‘What are You Doing for Others‘? By Heidi Godman

WHY IS VOLUNTEERING SO POWERFUL?

By helping others as a virtual or remote volunteer, you will still reap the rewards of this labor of love. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., once said that “life’s most persistent and urgent question is, ‘What are you doing for others?’” Those words from 1957 are still relevant in our world full of inequities and people in need. And interestingly, helping others -- particularly volunteering -- also appears to boomerang back to us with significant health and wellness benefits. But how can you volunteer if you’re homebound due to the pandemic, disability, or transportation issues? Take heart: there are lots of opportunities, and many reasons to consider them.

A combination of the following factors may make volunteering good for us. You gain a sense of purpose. “You feel like you are part of a broader cause, contributing to a process that helps a lot of people and making a difference in the world. That’s enormously energizing. It enhances the motivation to get out of bed and be active,” says sociologist Dr. Matthew Lee, an author of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine study and a research director at Harvard University’s Human Flourishing Program. People who have a sense of purpose also have greater levels of physical activity, better sleep quality, healthier diets, and lower rates of cardiovascular disease. You connect with others. “When you interact with other people, even if it’s not in person, you’re likely to build relationships and feel more engaged,” Lee points out. You get a break from your own problems. “You stop worrying about your own situation when you start helping others improve theirs,” Lee says. It develops your sense of virtue. “By design, human beings want to become better people,” Lee notes. “When we nurture others, we flourish and grow.” It just feels good. “Feeling like you’re making a contribution lights up reward centers in the brain and gives you the ‘helper’s high,’ the warm feeling you get when you’re helping others. It leads to a strong sense of personal well-being and positive emotions,” Lee says.

VOLUNTEERING BENEFITS Research suggests that volunteering is good for the mind and body. For example, a Harvard study of 13,000 older adults, published in the August 2020 issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, found that people who volunteered at least two hours per week said they were not only happier, more active, and more optimistic than people who didn’t volunteer, but also less depressed, hopeless, or lonely. Volunteers reported more contact with friends and more purpose in life than the non-volunteers. Volunteers even had greater longevity by the end of the four-year study period: they were 40% less likely to die prematurely than non-volunteers. The findings echo other studies that associate volunteering with health, wellness, or longevity.

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WAYS TO PITCH IN Even if you can’t leave home, you can still volunteer your time for a good cause. Here are some ideas. Volunteer online. Thanks to computers, it’s common to be a “virtual” volunteer. For example, you can provide administrative, accounting, or marketing assistance via computer, or you can tutor or mentor someone via video chat. There are opportunities in the arts, business, education, health, medicine, and many other fields. Think about your life experience and who might benefit from it. Volunteer by phone. Telephones are still important in volunteer work. For example, you can use a phone to help raise money for nonprofits, answer a hotline, or make check-in calls to homebound adults.

A Harvard study found that people who volunteered at least two hours per week said they were not only happier, more active, and more optimistic than people who didn’t volunteer, but also less depressed, hopeless, or lonely.

ute. For example: “If you were an art teacher, offer free Zoom classes. If you like writing, send cards or letters to soldiers, nursing home residents, or children in hospitals Call an organization you like and ask if it has any “re- to brighten their day,” Lee suggests. mote” or virtual volunteer opportunities. Will helping from home confer the same benefits as volSearch online for volunteering opportunities in your ZIP unteering in person? “In many ways, it should. You’re code on websites such as Volunteer Match (www.vol- still connecting deeply with people and being part of unteermatch.org/virtual) or Idealist (www.idealist.org). something larger than yourself that’s meaningful to you. If you can leave your home but you’re not ready to be Distance doesn’t diminish the story that you become part part of a group, consider assisting neighbors. Someone of,” Lee says. you know may need help getting the daily mail or paper, And you get to answer the profound question Dr. King walking a dog, preparing meals, helping in their garden, posed so long ago. or taking garbage to the curb. This article was originally published by Harvard Health Or get creative and come up with other ways to contrib- Letter.

TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES:

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