Djibouti, the "Guardian Eye" of Bab al-Mandab

Djibouti, the "Guardian Eye" of Bab al-Mandab The United States Must Marshal the “Free World�

The Dangers of Vaccine Disillusionment

Under the Guise of Family Cohesion, Women in Gaza Conceal a Life of Domestic Violence

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Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

With the current sea change in Israeli-Arab relations, highlighted by recent peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain, the strategically important Djibouti is high on the agenda of Israel’s normalization efforts. Despite its tiny size and population, the geographic position of the African country has made it an im-portant player on the international stage. Now more evident than ever in light of the threat posed by Iran and its proxy Houthi attacks on oil tankers passing by the strait of “Bab-El-Mandab”, one of the most vital waterways of the world, to which Djibouti has assumed the role of a “Guardian Eye”. While the Presi-dent, Omar Guelleh, may still not warm to the idea of normalization, he has ex-pressed willingness to reciprocate any well-meaning actions from Israel, should they come along. Israel understands the need to reinforce its presence in the Horn of Africa and has already established a military base in Eretria. The stra-tegic goal of adding Djibouti to its normalization ‘list’ is vital to securing its navi-gational security. While many Arab leaders are attempting relationships with Israel at the moment, the backlash of its peoples will always be problematic. In this week’s covers story we look at Djibouti’s crucial role in the international peace equation and how it finds itself having to strike the right balance.

For decades, Human Rights Watch has called upon successive U.S administra-tions for more transparency from the Chinese government and action towards its abuses. The Biden administration will not be able to stand by, and it cannot treat Chinese human rights violations only as a foreign policy issue. Rather, the new administration needs to put China’s human rights abuses on both its for-eign and its domestic policy agendas, because such violations threaten people not only in China, where sweeping campaigns of repression are well under way, but also in the United States, where companies, universities, and diaspora communities are vulnerable to Beijing’s influence.

Sophie Richardson explains how the human rights norms that China now undermines are global, and the consequences of their weakening will be global, too.

51 percent of previously married women in the Gaza Strip have been subjected to some form of gender-based violence. However, the percentage of women ex-posed to violence who went to a women’s institution or center to seek counsel-ling was no more than seven percent. The issue of domestic violence towards women is an extension of a long held Palestinian belief that women must be subordinate to men in all matters of life. This week, Mohammed Abu Doun tells the story of some of the victims of this daily abuse and how society in Palestine is still struggling to expose and deal with it adequately.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

24 A Revolutionary Change in

Thailand

Issue 1830- December- 11/12/2020

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The United States Must Marshal ”the “Free World

32 The Dangers of Vaccine Disillusionment

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Biden Must Stand Up to China on Human Rights

36 Photography Has Gotten Climate

Change Wrong from the Start

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How Do I Improve the Quality of My Sleep ?

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Reality TV Meets Video Games … on 44 Facebook? A New Social Experiment 11/12/20

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A visitor takes a photo of a robot at Etisalat company section at Gulf Information Technology Exhibition (GITEX) 2020 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 06 December 2020. The 40th GITEX Technology Week includes some 1,200 exhibiting companies from 60 countries with 350 speakers from 30 countries. This year’s GITEX features for the first time an Israeli pavilion.

GITEX is running from 06 to 10 December 2020./ EPA

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Demonstrators wearing face masks to help curb the spread of the coronavirus, at right one waves an old Belarusian national flag, during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020. Protests in Belarus have continued for almost four months after President Alexander Lukashenko won his sixth term in office in an election the opposition says was rigged. /AP

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UK Issues Anaphylaxis Warning on Pfizer Vaccine After Adverse Reactions Britain’s medicine regulator said anyone with a history of anaphylaxis to a medicine or food should not get the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, giving fuller guidance on an earlier allergy warning about the shot. Starting with the elderly and frontline workers, Britain began mass vaccinating its population on Tuesday, part of a global drive that poses one of the biggest logistical challenges in peacetime history. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said there had been two reports of anaphylaxis and one report of a possible allergic reaction since rollout began. “Any person with a history of anaphylaxis

to a vaccine, medicine or food should not receive the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine,” MHRA Chief Executive June Raine said in a statement. “Most people will not get anaphylaxis and the benefits in protecting people against COVID-19 outweigh the risks... You can be completely confident that this vaccine has met the MHRA’s robust standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.” Anaphylaxis is an overreaction of the body’s immune system, which the National Health Service describes as severe and sometimes life-threatening.

Morocco Joins Other Arab Nations Agreeing to Normalize Israel Ties Israel and Morocco agreed on Thursday to nor-

malize relations in a deal brokered with U.S. help, making Morocco the fourth Arab country to set aside hostilities with Israel in the past four months. It joins the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan in beginning to forge deals with Israel, driven in part by U.S.-led efforts to present a united front against Iran and roll back Tehran’s regional influence. In a departure from longstanding U.S. policy, President Donald Trump agreed as part of the deal to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, a desert region where a decades-old territorial dispute has pitted Morocco against the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, a breakaway movement that seeks to establish an independent state in the territory. President-elect Joe Biden, due to succeed Trump on Jan. 20, will face a decision whether to accept the U.S. deal on the Western Sahara, which no other Western nation has done.

Lebanese Judge Charges PM, Exministers Over Beirut Port Blast The judge investigating the Beirut port explosion has charged Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab and three former ministers with negligence over the blast that killed 200 people and devastated swathes of the capital. Diab, whose cabinet resigned over the August blast after taking office in early 2020, said his conscience was clear and accused the judge of breaching the constitution. Four months after one of the largest nonnuclear explosions on record, which injured thousands of people, victims are still awaiting the result of the investigation. Lebanese leaders had promised it would come within days. The explosion added to the challenges facing Lebanon, where decades of waste and

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ing which Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have imposed a diplomatic, trade and travel embargo on Qatar since mid-2017. U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Jared Kushner had held talks in Doha last week following a visit to Saudi Arabia. “We have made significant progress in the last few days thanks to the continuing efforts of Kuwait but also thanks to strong support from President Trump,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told a Rome conference via videolink. “We hope this progress can lead to a final agreement which looks within reach and I can say I am somewhat optimistic that we are close to finalising an agreement between all the nations in the dispute.” corruption have triggered the country’s worst ever financial crisis. Lebanon’s sectarian leaders are still haggling over who will be in the new cabinet.

Saudi Arabia Says Resolution of Gulf Dispute Seems Within Reach Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Friday a resolution to a bitter dispute with Qatar seemed “within reach” after Kuwait announced progress towards ending a row that Washington says hampers a united Gulf front against Iran. The United States and Kuwait have worked to end the dispute, dur-

to find agreement and prevent a chaotic break.

After a meeting with his senior ministers, Johnson said they had agreed the treaty on the table did not work for Britain. “We need to be very, very clear there’s now a strong possibility, strong possibility that we will have a solution that’s much more like an Australian relationship with the EU, than a Canadian relationship with the EU,” Johnson said.

U.S. COVID Deaths Smash Daily Record Amid Pleas to Trim Back Christmas The daily U.S. death toll from COVID-19 has surpassed 3,000 for the first time,

UK’s Johnson Says ‘Strong Possibility’ of No-deal Split in EU Trading Ties British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday there was “a strong possibility” Britain and the EU would fail to strike a trade deal, but vowed to do whatever he could to avoid a tumultuous split in three weeks. The European Union and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights, economic fair play and dispute settlement, despite months of talks on a new deal to cover trade from Jan. 1 when the United Kingdom finally exits the bloc’s orbit.

The two sides have set a deadline of Sunday

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prompting pleas for Americans to scale back Christmas plans even with vaccines on the cusp of winning regulatory approval. COVID-19 deaths reached 3,253 on Wednesday, pushing up the U.S. total since the start of the pandemic to 289,740.

A record 106,219 people were hospitalized with the highly infectious respiratory disease. Healthcare professionals and support staff, exhausted by demands of the pandemic, have been watching patients die alone as millions of Americans refuse to follow medical advice to wear masks and avoid crowds to contain the spread. Nursing home residents and staff have also felt the burden. “This is a pandemic that no one has ever experienced in our lifetimes,” Stephen Hanse, president of the New York State Health Facilities Association and the New York State Center for Assisted Living, told Reuters on Thursday. The one-day death toll exceeded the number of lives lost from the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, underscoring the human toll and the call for Americans to redouble efforts.

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Djibouti, the “Guardian Eye” of Bab al-Mandab Israel’s Next Target for Normalization?

by Ahmed Madbouly

vital waterways in the world, is strategically important among world powers.

Despite a population of just over a million inhabitants and an area of 23,000 square kilometres, Djibouti, situated on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most

As the Houthi’s in Yemen continue to threaten international trade and tensions escalate in Bab al-Mandab

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and the Gulf of Aden, Djibouti’s role in securing this global waterway is crucial. The tiny country located across from Yemen, where the conflict has become a threat to the strait through which about 9 percent of international maritime trade passes, including Arab tankers carrying petroleum to Europe, as well internet cables that connect the European continent with the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and the Indian Peninsula.

CONTRASTED APPROACH To protect the strait, the small Arab state adopted a different approach by hosting several military bases, making it an important player on the international stage. This helped to preserve the continuity of international trade across the strait and made Djibouti the “guardian eye” of the Bab al-Mandeb.

Djibouti president Ismail Omar Guelleh walks during an official military welcome ceremony (Getty)

With the ongoing Operation Decisive Storm being carried out by Arab coalition forces to confront the Houthi threat in Yemen and prevent its threat to Arab interests, the persistent attacks on commercial traffic raise questions about the role that Djibouti may play in supporting Arab efforts to ensure the safety of navigation. The latest incident was announced by the British Maritime Trade Operations, where a British ship was attacked off the coast of Yemen on December 5. Previously, Houthis carried out several attacks, notably targeting the port of “Mocha” with a boobytrapped boat laden with explosives, targeting Saudi oil tankers west of the strategic Hodeidah port, four oil tankers in the UAE’s economic waters and two oil tankers in the Sea of Oman.

THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY Dr. Ahmed Abdel Dayem, a professor at the Faculty of African Graduate Studies at Cairo University, confirmed in exclusive statements to Majalla that since its independence, Djibouti has been committed to the preservation of Arab national security and that its geostrategic position makes it an axis for many conflicting forces while also preserving a necessary balance. It also managed to gain international leverage by hosting international military bases to secure oil and global trade, making its role vital. The strength of a state is not only measured by its economic capabilities or population numbers, but by its effective utilization of its capabilities, including a distinct geographical location, in addition to international political interactions. In this case, geography played a role greater than population size, geographical area, or even the economic status.

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Arab fears of renewed conflict in the waterway and protecting maritime navigation is a joint international responsibility EXPLODING CONDITIONS Arab concern, particularly in Egypt and the Gulf, about the renewed conflict in Bab al-Mandab is justified. Most of the Arab oil destined for Europe passes through the strait, where shipments amounting to about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products to Europe and the United States pass through. Any danger poses a threat to global energy supplies, not to mention commercial ships that pass through the Suez Canal, one of the most important tributaries to the Egyptian economy.

The on-going Iranian threat raises concern among these countries, especially in light of Iran’s efforts to avenge the killing of its nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh, and attacking, via its proxies in Yemen, any Arab, Western or Israeli ships passing through Bab al-Mandab.

Understanding the strategic importance of Djibouti has pushed Arab states to strengthen their ties with the African state. Saudi Arabia has already signed 25 agreements and a memorandum of understanding to strengthen their economic partnership and is working on the launch of a Saudi free trade zone in Djibouti o increase the export of Saudi products to the African continent. The two countries have also signed several agreements for joint military cooperation Djibouti severed its diplomatic relations with Iran in January 2016 in solidarity with Saudi Arabia, following the attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in the city of Mashhad in Iran at the time.

Djiboutian President Omar Guelleh also visited Egypt in April 2019 to participate in the mini-summit called for by Cairo on the Libyan and Sudanese files, while Egypt participated with a high-level delegation headed by Parliament Speaker Ali AbdelAl in the same year in Djibouti’s celebrations of its

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forty-second independence.

A GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY Major General Ali Hefezi, former governor of North Sinai and former assistant Minister of Defense, said in a statement to Majalla that unfavourable events will occur if interests are unaligned. Currently, there is instability due to conflicting parties, and if this conflict continues, we will find from time to time a change in the situation according to what each party finds fit to serve its own interest, and such incidents and terrorist acts that occur are difficult to stop by any party, regardless of its strength, he added.

Hefezi also pointed out that there is a conflict of interest between regional powers, and as long as this conflict continues, it is possible that such incidents will recur in Bab al-Mandeb, until an agreement and a clear strategy is put in place to improve stability.

He explained that Bab al-Mandeb is an international corridor and not an Arab one, and the responsibility to secure it is an international one.

INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL CONSENSUS Hefezi stresses that one way to ensure international and regional consensus that preserves stability is by developing a new approach with the next American administration as Arab and local parties can only play a role within an international framework.

He explained that the United States is leading activities in the region, and is currently making space for

There are concerns that “Iran’s tentacles” will target Western or Arab ships in retaliation for the killing of Fakhri Zadeh

other parties to participate, provided they maintain a leading position. He added that the multiple military bases in Djibouti have been allowed to participate in a manner that does not infringe on the American position and its interests in the region.

These sentiments were reiterated by security expert, Major General Adel Al-Omda, who said in his statements to Majalla that protecting Bab Al-Mandab is a joint responsibility bordering countries, as well as Egypt considering it is the main entrance to the Suez Canal. Moreover, it is a global stream supported by international efforts to maintain the continuity of trade. Al-Omda pointed out that the movement of international trade takes place through transnational companies, and these companies have an influence on the international decision, whether that of individual countries or the United Nations.

THE IRANIAN RESPONSE Although the mayor said that it is possible that Iran’s tentacles would make new threats in Bab al-Mandeb, he ruled out that Iran would directly target Israeli

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A Chinese woman uses a parasol in front of the main gate of Djibouti International Free Trade Zone (Getty)

international ones in support of securing international trade. He dded that Djibouti is an Arab country and a signatory to the joint Arab defence agreements, noting that the relations between Cairo and Djibouti are characterized by close cooperation in various fields and that there is constant coordination between them.

DJIBOUTI AND ISRAEL Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh recently said in an interview published by The Africa Report that his country is not currently considering following in the footsteps of the Arab and Islamic countries that initiated the normalization of relations with Israel. Guelleh explained that conditions are not suitable now for taking this step, indicating that Djibouti has no problem with Jews and Israel as a state. He pointed out that some Israelis visit Djibouti to conduct business, while citizens of the African country have had the opportunity to travel to Israel for the last 25 years.

“But we have differences with the government of Israel because it denies the inalienable rights of the Palestinians. All we ask of this government is to present signal of peace and we will do ten signals in return, but I fear that they will never do that,” he added.

THE ISRAELI PRESENCE ships and said that the Iranian response to the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is possible, but targeting Israeli ships is unlikely. This is because while superficially relations between Tehran and Tal Aviv may appear to be in disarray, beneath the surface there is agreement between Iran and Israel, despite the general perception that there is a conflict between them.

He said that the military bases in Djibouti represent a real military presence and place the Arab countries in one melting pot to secure navigational operations in the Red Sea, stressing at the same time that all countries that have interests in Bab al-Mandeb have a military presence in the countries of the Horn of Africa.

On the other hand, Abdel Dayem considers that securing navigation in Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal does not fall only on the states bordering it, but is a global responsibility approved by international agreements, pointing out that Egypt has a large fleet with a strong presence in the Red Sea capable of protecting Egyptian national security and that Djibouti’s position is clearly consistent with Arab and

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This statement clearly shows the Djiboutian position on establishing relations with Israel, but it also raises a question about the importance Djibouti represents to Tel Aviv, considering Israel has a strong presence in the Horn of Africa, which includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. Western and Israeli reports confirm widespread Israeli cooperation with Eritrea and Ethiopia, culminating with the establishment of an Israeli military base in Eritrea.

The Israeli presence in Africa is not the result of the recent events; it extends back to the fifties and following the establishment of the State of Israel and underwent several different stages. After Israel succeeded in establishing multiple relations with nonArab African countries, it suffered a setback when most of these African countries cut off their relations after the 1967 War of Attrition and the October 1973 War as a result of pressure from Arab and Islamic countries at the time.

But with Egypt holding a peace agreement with Tel Aviv, leading to the Oslo agreement and Wadi Araba, Israel began to restore its strong presence in the continent, taking the economic gateway as an en-

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try point to African countries, most of which suffer from difficult economic conditions. This strengthened its presence through its economic experts, especially in the fields of agriculture and water, an area Israel excels in, while economic reports indicated that the volume of trade exchange between Israel and Africa amounted to approximately $ 5.7 billion in 2016.

This economic situation, in turn, strengthened the Israeli security and intelligence role, especially in the countries of the Nile Basin and the Horn of Africa.

The visits by Israeli officials at various political levels to African countries, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were a clear reflection of the extent of the Israeli penetration, which almost culminated in the first African-Israeli summit at the end October 2017 in Togo, where 54 African countries were invited to participate at the time but was cancelled at the eleventh hour.

STRATEGIC GOAL The Israeli presence in Africa reached its peak in the Horn of Africa, where reports indicated the establishment of an Israeli base in Eritrea, as well as the strong ties between Addis Ababa and Tel Aviv, which places the relationship with Djibouti as a “strategic goal” for Israel to complete its influence in the Horn of Africa and ensure its navigational security at both ends of the Red Sea. Dr. Abdel Dayem points out that the statements of the President of Djibouti about his country’s posi-

General Hefzy to Majalla: Security threats in the strait will exist as long as there conflicts of interest and stability will only come with an international agreement

tion on establishing relations with Israel indicates that Djibouti is an Arab country and is committed to Arab decisions. If we read between the lines, we will find that it is a real commitment to the Arab initiative, and if it happens AND the Palestinians obtain their rights, the Arab countries and the Palestinians themselves will conclude peace agreements with Israel.

TWO DIFFERENT PATHS Abdel Dayem distinguished between two approaches to the relationship between Arab countries and Israel, whether they current exist or are expected to occur in the future, namely the path of “diplomatic representation” and the path of “popular normalization.”

The professor of modern history at the Faculty of African Studies at Cairo University told Majalla that the political track is subject to multiple considerations related to the circumstances of each country and the nature of regional and international variables. He indicated that Khartoum’s initiative to establish a relationship with Israel came after Sudan faced years of turbulence and its designation as a sponsor of terrorism which brought its economy to its knees, in addi-

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Yemeni Shiite Houthi rebel fighters in the port city of Hodeidah (Getty)

Abdel-Dayem to Majalla: Djibouti has used its strategic geographical position to attract various international powers and is committed to Arab and global national security met with great rejection by the Arab peoples since Palestine and Jerusalem are both fundamental issues for Arabs and represent the heart of the Arab world. Whether it is Djibouti, Sudan, Bahrain, or any country that may attempt a relationship with Israel, it will suffer with the Arab peoples.” Citing the Egyptian position, he adds:” Egypt has officially established a relationship with Israel for a long time, but the issue of normalization is still facing clear popular rejection.”

tion to the impact of the civil war and the secession of the south. This meant that the only way Sudan could be removed from the terrorism list and to allow the flow of investments back to the country was through normalization with Israel, considering the role it plays in international politics.

He pointed out that in this context he understands the move that the UAE and Bahrain took to establish a relationship with the Hebrew state in light of the ongoing Iranian threats to the Gulf states, the changes that took place in the US administration and the anticipated development of relations between Tehran and Washington. These factors reinforced Gulf concerns and pushed them to search for external forces, taking steps that may be interpreted as falling within the framework of a political tactic to preserve national security.

POPULAR NORMALIZATION Regarding the second track, which Abdel Dayem refers to as the path of “popular normalization” between the Arab peoples and the Israelis, he says: “I think that the issue of normalization as a popular concept is difficult to implement since it is

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He explained that the same context applies to Djibouti, through which the statements of the President of Djibouti can be understood. His country is stable, important for the Arab world and is committed to Arab national security and the agreements signed, and at the same time it has multiple relations with Western powers and the Arab world; the military bases reflect this. Preserving the security of Bab al-Mandeb is considered a matter of national security for Djibouti, with the participation of the Arab countries and the world alike.

ISRAELI PRESENCE General Hefezi believes that Israel is already present in Bab al-Mandab and that America wants to boost Israel’s position in the region and to expand its role.

He explained that this does not mean that Israel will turn into a the ‘policeman’ for the region as this concept has practically disappeared since the October War, and leverage is currently taking place through internal and economic means. He also pointed out that the use of military force is the last tool of influence, and is applied when there are no other options.

He believes that the next step is to create a role for Israel through forging economic alliances in the region.

He also indicated that it is likely that other countries in the region will normalize ties with Israel, whether it is Djibouti or others.

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There Is Only One Way Out of Afghanistan Regional Support is Key to Unlocking the U.S Government’s Dilemma

By Barnett R. Rubin For more than a decade, every debate about U.S. policy in Afghanistan has fo-cused narrowly on the number of troops to send or withdraw. U.S. policymak-ers freely admit there can be no military solution to Afghanistan’s problems. Yet they continue to debate the same false choice between disengagement and troop commitment for counterterrorism.

The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden has a chance to move beyond this blinkered approach. U.S. interests in Afghanistan extend beyond counterterrorism. China, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia—four nuclear pow-ers, Asia’s two mega-economies, and a wily U.S. adversary—all have a stake in Afghanistan’s future. How the United States deals with these countries in the context of the Afghan peace process has profound implications for its relations with each of them and for its standing in Asia.

The Biden administration should continue to draw down troops in accordance with the agreement the administration of President Donald Trump signed with the Taliban in February 2020— though it could seek to adjust the timeline, since implementation of parts of the agreement has been delayed. But it should

draw down as part of a coordinated regional strategy that seeks to capitalize on areas of alignment between the United States and regional powers.

Although its relations with China and Russia are otherwise in a downward spi-ral, the United States shares an interest with both countries in stabilizing Af-ghanistan. A political settlement that enjoys the support of Afghanistan’s neighbours wouldn’t just reduce the need for U.S. troops; it could serve as the foundation of a more ambitious and effective Asia policy.

THINKING REGIONALLY Afghanistan’s problems are regional in nature. Yet the United States has no framework for managing the regional tensions that have fuelled the conflict. The Trump administration’s strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia didn’t even mention China, Iran, or Russia (though all three are referenced in the De-cember 2017 National Security Strategy, focused on “great power competition” and “dictatorships . . . determined to destabilize regions”).

When in 2018 it de-cided to focus on a negotiated troop withdrawal, however, the Trump admin-istration found that these countries were already engaged in peace negotiations through the

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U.S. Army soldiers retrieve their bags after they returned home from a -9month deployment to Afghanistan

so-called Moscow Process. As a result, it needed to cooperate with all of them to secure a U.S. withdrawal.

Trump’s special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, made some progress toward aligning peace efforts with Russia and China. He authorized U.S. participation in a November 2018 meeting of the Moscow Pro-cess, met regularly with Russian officials responsible for Afghanistan policy, and consulted with Russian, Chinese, and Pakistani officials on the Afghan peace process. Those consultations led to several joint statements in support of the U.S. negotiations with the Taliban that eventually led to the February 2020 peace accord and to subsequent inter-Afghan peace talks.

Despite Beijing’s participation in the consultations, however, the Trump admin-istration continued to oppose even perfunctory expressions of support for Af-ghan-Chinese cooperation. In March 2020, for instance, the United States threatened to veto a UN Security Council resolution renewing the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan because it mentioned China’s Belt and Road Initiative (as, in fact, did every resolution to renew the mission since 2016). The resolution finally passed with a vague endorsement of “regional cooperation for regional development.”

Partly as a gesture toward India, the Trump administration also made some ef-fort to bring Iran on board with its peace efforts in Afghanistan. In 2018, it au-thorized exceptions to U.S. sanctions on Iran for investments in Chabahar, an Iranian port project partially financed by India and Japan that would give India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. But the United States’ “maximum pres-sure” campaign against Iran continued to scare off investment in the port, blunting the diplomatic impact of the exceptions. It came as little surprise, then, that Iran declined to participate in the U.S.-led Afghan peace consultations with China, Russia, and Pakistan.

Regional support will be essential for implementation of the 2020 U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. Under that deal, the United States is to withdraw all remain-ing troops by May 1, 2021, in exchange for the Taliban’s commitment to pre-vent Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist haven. But the timeline is linked to other goals—for a U.S.-Taliban cease-fire, for the release of prisoners, for the lifting of sanctions, and for the start of intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and the government in Kabul on a political road map for the country and a comprehensive cease-fire. Long (though foreseeable) delays in releasing prisoners and commencing direct negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban have dragged on for months amid escalating violence. The Tali-ban have not yet cut ties with al Qaeda, and the United States has not started the process of lifting bilateral and UN Security Council sanctions on the Taliban. It will be virtually impossible for the Afghan negotiators to agree on a future political road map and cease-fire during the brief 14week window between Biden’s inauguration and the deadline for troop withdrawal.

When it inherits the Afghan peace process on January 20, the Biden admin-istration may wish to negotiate clearer relationships and contingencies among the components of the process and to

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Although its relations with China and Russia are otherwise in a downward spiral, the United States shares an interest with both countries in stabilizing Afghanistan. coordinate the deal’s implementation with other regional initiatives, such as rejoining the Iran nuclear agreement. But doing so will require coordinated diplomatic outreach to Afghanistan’s powerful neighbours, all of whom, except India, have political relationships with both the Afghan government and the Taliban— and all of whom worry that the United States has taken advantage of their approval of a counterterrorism mission to establish permanent military bases that might one day be used against them.

These neighbours want U.S. troops out of the region, but not in a way that leaves a worse problem behind.

SHARED INTERESTS The Biden administration should make clear that withdrawing troops as part of a comprehensive political settlement—including a cease-fire and Taliban coun-terterrorism commitments—will go hand in hand with a new focus on diploma-cy and cooperation with regional powers. Continental Asia, virtually absent from the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, has a shared interest in stabilizing Afghanistan. The region is home to enormous infrastructure projects involving Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Japan, Russia, and the Central Asian states that can succeed only if there is peace in Afghanistan.

But the scope for cooperation goes beyond infrastructure and the commerce it can facilitate. Even China, whose relations with Washington are likely to remain contentious in other areas such as trade and technology, can find considerable common ground with the United States in Afghanistan. During the administration of President Barack Obama, joint U.S.-Chinese training of Afghan diplomats led to jointly sponsored peace efforts. The United States and China should re-vive and expand that training program. The two countries should also explore security cooperation. For years, China has discreetly mooted the possibility of working with the United States to support the Afghan National Defense and Se-curity Forces. Chinese officials have also informally proposed joint U.S.-Chinese training of Afghan military officers. The Biden administration could look into both of these possibilities. It might also consider supporting the acquisition by the Afghan military of reconditioned Chinese Mi-17 helicopters.

These helicop-ters could carry out convoy escort and medical evacuation missions much more cheaply than the McDonnell Douglas models the United States is currently providing.

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China could be enticed to step up military cooperation in part because of its in-terest in northeast Afghanistan, which borders the Xinjiang Uighur Autono-mous Region. Beijing has imposed a draconian regime of surveillance and de-tention in this region to suppress what it characterizes as the “three evils” of separatism, extremism, and terrorism. Its repression extends far beyond what might be justified by legitimate security threats, but legitimate security threats nonetheless exist. To counter them, Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Tajikistan have established a Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism un-der which they jointly patrol their shared borders. China has also helped the Afghan National Army build a counterterrorism mountain brigade in the region of Badakhshan, along the border with China. While the United States should continue to condemn the repression in Xinjiang, China’s preoccupation with se-curity threats in that region could provide a basis for greater U.S.-Chinese coop-eration in support of Afghan security forces.

Additional collaborative avenues could open up if the United States shifts from simply opposing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to constructively engag-ing with and competing with it. Beijing’s signature infrastructure-building drive has undeniable appeal: one 2017 Asian Development Bank study estimated that Asia will need $26 trillion in infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030. Nowhere is that need more acute than in Afghanistan. Though Afghani-stan has not officially joined the BRI, under a 2016 memorandum of under-standing Beijing and Kabul have begun some cooperation through the initiative. In 2016, for instance, China opened the Sino-Afghan Special Railway, which connected Jiangsu Province on China’s Pacific coast with the northern Afghani-stan land port of Hairatan. The first train laden with Afghan talc left Hairatan for China in September 2019.

Instead of opposing the BRI, the United States should seek to influence it—in particular, by joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a multilateral development bank with 103 member states, including Afghanistan and most U.S. allies. Far from the Chinese-inspired threat to the international order that its opponents make it out to be, the AIIB is “an avenue of constructive coopera-tion to help stabilize the rocky U.S.-China relationship and enhance the U.S. economic presence in Asia,” as a recent

Afghanistan’s problems are regional in nature. Yet the United States has no framework for managing the regional tensions that have fuelled the conflict.

Brookings Institution report concluded. A significant capital contribution could make Washington an important influ-encer as well as a critic.

IRAN AND CHABAHAR Afghanistan is also a promising theatre for cooperation with Iran, even if the timing must be coordinated with nuclear negotiations. The Biden administration will seek to open dialogue with Tehran as soon as possible and to rejoin the nu-clear deal that Trump abandoned in 2018. The recent assassination of an Irani-an nuclear scientist, most likely by Israel, could complicate these plans. After the killing, hard-liners in the Iranian parliament passed a law forbidding diplo-macy with the United States unless it lifts sanctions within three weeks of Biden’s inauguration. But the president-elect is already on the record advocat-ing prompt re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal and can argue that the ultima-tum from Iranian hard-liners had no effect on his decision.

Another complicating issue will be Iran’s presidential election, slated for June 2021. To appeal to an aggrieved population (and in order to delay possible talks and sanctions relief until after the election), Iran’s hard-liners are likely to demand compensation for losses caused by the U.S. withdrawal from the nucle-ar deal.

The Biden administration should nonetheless try to persuade sceptical Iranian voters to take another gamble on engagement with the United States. Even before it resumes bilateral negotiations with Tehran, the Biden admin-istration could actively encourage U.S. and other companies to invest in Chaba-har, a gesture that both Afghanistan and India would welcome.

The Biden administration could also capitalize on the interest it shares with Iran in combating the Islamic State—a common interest the Trump administration has ignored or denied. Even minimal exchanges of information in the fight against the extremist group could help lay the foundation for further coordina-tion between Washington and Tehran.

INDIA AND PAKISTAN The United States should survey the possible avenues for cooperation with In-dia and Pakistan as well. Both are important destinations for Afghan exports. In 2018, for instance, Afghanistan exported $360 million worth of goods to India and $380 million to Pakistan. Lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran would allow India and others to build the road and rail connections needed to expand those ex-ports through Chabahar. Deeper Indian economic ties to Afghanistan would al-so provide a platform for Indian participation in regional efforts related to the peace process.

At the same time, a coherent and cooperative regional policy would help the United States recalibrate relations with Pakistan.

Once it draws down its forces, closes its military bases in Afghanistan, and opens routes for its allies through Iran, the United States will be less dependent on logistical cooperation with Pa-

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Afghan security officers stand in front of a United Nations (UN) vehicle

kistan’s military. Coordination with other regional partners, especially China, will also help secure vital Pakistani support for an eventual political settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. To safeguard such a settle-ment, Islamabad would need to help shut down Taliban military and logistical facilities in its territory. Pakistan is reportedly discussing this aspect of the set-tlement in high-level military talks with Afghanistan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. But given the need to monitor implementation of such a high-ly sensitive agreement, China, whose observers might be acceptable to Pakistan, should be invited into this group.

Successfully implementing the peace agreement will require Moscow’s buy-in, too. Russia’s cooperation, along with China’s, will be vital for renegotiating time-tables and making modifications to the UN sanctions regime. The Biden admin-istration should seek Russia’s and China’s help in its outreach to Iran, Pakistan, and India.

A U.N HUB IN CENTRAL ASIA The United States will not be able to execute a successful regional strategy for Afghanistan on its own. Only the United Nations has the convening authority to coordinate the multiple levels of negotiation that will be required. The UN could take on a bigger role in Afghanistan either by expanding the authorities of the UN special representative of the secretarygeneral for Afghanistan or by ap-pointing a separate special envoy for international diplomacy in support of the Afghan peace process.

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The United States could also support the establishment of a new UN regional hub in Central Asia. At present, the region’s UN country offices are mostly served out of distant hubs in Bangkok and Cairo. Several agencies, such as the World Health Organization and the World Food Program, don’t have a presence at all in some Central Asian countries. These gaps have become particularly evi-dent over the past year, as the pandemic disrupted supply chains and pushed up food prices. The continued spread of COVID-19 risks causing additional dis-ruptions this spring, which in turn could threaten the peace process and the regional cooperation it requires.

Uzbekistan has already expressed an interest in hosting UN offices and could be asked to establish such a hub. An expanded UN presence there would be wel-come news in Kabul: the Uzbek government has signed several dozen agree-ments with Afghanistan since 2016, established a rail link between the two countries, facilitated transit trade, and set up an international logistics center and a free economic zone on the Afghan border. Japan and the EU—both look-ing for ways to expand their soft power in Central Asia—might be willing to fund a UN regional center in Uzbekistan.

Competition will always be a feature of the international system, but the United States need not let that define its options in Afghanistan. The United States has interests in the region that extend beyond counterterrorism—and tools at its disposal other than the military. The Biden administration has a chance to overcome the tunnel vision of the past two decades by integrating its policy into a cooperative regional strategy that seeks common ground with Afghanistan’s neighbours.

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The United States Must Marshal the “Free World”

Together, Democracies Can Counter the Authoritarian Threat

by Alexander Vindman At noon on January 20, 2021, Joseph R. Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States.

He will confront a daunting domestic agenda: the legacy of outgoing President Donald Trump will include a rampant pandemic and a host of unresolved social, cultural, ideological, economic, and administrative

problems. Having committed himself to being the president of all Americans, Biden will need to contend with the grievances of millions who did not support him and who even question the legitimacy of his election. These domestic concerns will understandably consume the preponderance of the president’s time and energy.

But Biden’s de facto leadership of the “free world”

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beyond the United States’ borders will be equally important. China, Russia, and other authoritarian states, which have long seen democracy as an existential threat, are on the offensive, deploying all means of statecraft—diplomatic, informational, military, and economic—to advance their ends. The “un-free” world seeks to undermine international norms, Western liberal values, and democracy itself in order to enable the ascendancy of autocratic governments and permit their exercise of raw power. Biden will need to marshal the very strengths that define democratic government if he is to both mend domestic wounds and temper the threats that face democracies globally.

RIVAL GREAT THREATS For two decades, a distracted United States neglected the reemergence of great-power competition, and China and Russia reaped the benefits. During its moment of unipolarity, the United States narrowly focused much of its energies on the Middle East and on immediate concerns, to the exclusion of emerging and long-term national security interests. China took advantage of the United States’ distraction and effectively marshaled its strengths to surge in power at a moment when the United States should have held the edge.

China’s President Xi Jinping (R) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin smile during the welcoming ceremony on the final day of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on April ,27 2019. (Getty)

Under Trump, the United States disengaged from global affairs, and China and Russia took advantage of its absence to act with impunity and accelerate China’s climb toward preeminence. If the United States further retrenches or shifts to such strategies as offshore balancing, a void will expand that autocratic states will fill.

The United States must lead the democratic world in defending itself from a reversion to historical patterns that could well lead to democracy’s demise.

Russia.

China, as the world’s most populous nation and its second-largest economy, poses an even more potent and pernicious threat to the United States than Russia does. The Chinese Communist Party’s “hide and bide” doctrine helped mask the danger until recently.

Like Russia, China uses statecraft and malign influence to advance its interests and undermine democracies. More menacing, however, is its use of economic coercion against the United States and its closest allies. China has seized on the inequities of globalization and the perceived failure of the U.S.-led international financial system effectively to market the notion that state-led capitalism provides the better path to economic prosperity. China’s success in modeling an alternative, authoritarian, state-commanded capitalist system bolsters autocrats and lures some forces within struggling democracies.

Although there is no clear consensus as to whether China and Russia are collaborating to undermine democracies or simply advancing their independent interests, their common efforts are bearing fruit. During the Trump administration, nationalist populist moveFor decades, Russia has been using the well-honed ments blossomed globally, while many democracies tools of the Soviet security apparatus to assault de- backslid. The United States did not respond to these mocracies. Inside the United States, Russia has un- trends, but authoritarian states did—with support. leashed information warfare to exploit divisions and Under a new administration, the United States must magnify inequities. In Africa, Europe, and the Mid- organize a concerted effort, by democracies and for dle East, Russia is even less constrained and draws on democracies, to counter the rise of illiberalism and a broader array of tools. There, the Kremlin attacks authoritarianism. The United States must host a dedemocratic values not only through illicit financial mocracy summit. and organized crime networks and information and cyberwarfare but also with energy coercion, assas- SHARED PURPOSE sinations, and military force. In this zero-sum game, Russia’s objective is simple: magnify discord, divide A multipolar world—even one in which the United societies, and weaken democratic institutions in or- States remains disproportionally powerful—calls for der to subdue opponents and thereby shift power to a level of burden sharing to which democracies are

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not accustomed. In 1992, the democracies in what is now the G-20 accounted for nearly 90 percent of the group’s GDP. Today, those same democracies account for only 73 percent of the G-20’s GDP. Their economic influence has diminished, but the problems they seek to solve in common have not, and the United States is no longer able or willing to carry the whole load. The sharing of burdens will be essential if democracies are to remain united in the pursuit of common interests and in the face of common threats.

Uniting the democratic world against the clear and present danger of rising authoritarianism is not an act of idealism but of realism. China and Russia already hold similar interests and perceive similar threats, such that they are inclined to view the world in terms of “us versus them.” To convene a summit of democracies will not therefore drive authoritarian states together so much as it will acknowledge the stark reality of a world bifurcated into authoritarian and democratic camps. The project of supporting democracies and advancing democratic values, in this context, is continuous with past U.S. policy.

The idea of a democracy summit is not new, but the need for one has never been greater. Together, the world’s democracies can devise cooperative solutions to their most vexing domestic problems by collectively addressing such shared issues as demographic shifts, social polarization, and growing inequality. Such shared efforts will make democracies more internally cohesive and collectively resilient.

At the same time, democracies can help protect one another against external attacks, including those that take the form of information warfare or economic co-

For two decades, a distracted United States neglected the reemergence of great-power competition, and China and Russia reaped the benefits.

ercion. Democracies must deter bad actors from interfering in their internal affairs by making clear that those who seek to exploit the openness of democracies by sowing discord will face reciprocal responses.

Forewarned in this fashion, authoritarian states will accept the new ground rules, and all powers will benefit from the elimination of one area of increasingly serious conflict.

The summit should be a forum in which democracies can exchange best practices for addressing many areas of common concern. For instance, participants could share ideas for protecting important industries and technologies from foreign influence or for countering China’s economic exploitation. They could coordinate efforts to promote media literacy, expose information operations, and buttress civil society.

And democracies could seek collaborative solutions to such global problems as climate change—and the

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G7- leaders in Kruen, Germany June 2015.

(Reuters)

authoritarian subversion of international norms.

Ultimately, the summit should include all the world’s democracies. But it might begin as a kind of “coalition of the willing,” setting forth a democracy compact that identifies the shared objectives of its participants and pledges institutional, technical, and financial support to those who join. Democracies that are insecure or backsliding may then find themselves attracted to the summit consensus, whether in principle or because they don’t wish to be labeled as holdouts. They would have the opportunity to sign on to the principles. The summit should not tolerate free riders: it must take extreme care to be sure that all burdens are shared.

democracies must both cooperate and compete with authoritarian powers. Countries of both descriptions see climate change, nuclear proliferation, and transnational terror as threats: to counter these forces, among others, will require the United States to cooperate with China, Russia, and emerging powers in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

The United States once ushered in an era of new democracies, giving those states succor and benefiting from their allegiance. Today, authoritarianism is once again on the rise, and it poses an existential threat to that order. The United States must lead the democratic world in defending itself from a reversion to historical patterns that could well lead to democraThe United States, in concert with the world’s de- cy’s demise. mocracies, can resist the coercion of authoritarian regimes without forcing a direct confrontation be- This article was originally published on ForeignAftween the two systems. In fact, in a multipolar world, fairs.com.

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A Revolutionary Change in Thailand Protests Against the Monarchy Signal a Break With the Past

by Tamara Loos Since February, protesters have taken to the streets of Thailand to demand reform of the country’s political system. Demonstrations swelled in recent months as activists grew more forthright in criticizing the

government and the monarchy—an institution traditionally held sacrosanct. Thousands of demonstrators faced off with police this week in front of the garrison of a military regiment under the direct control of King Vajiralongkorn. In a bid to quash the protests, authorities have harnessed Thailand’s sweeping lese

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majesty laws, which prohibit criticism of the royal family, to bring charges against five leading activists.

Thailand has experienced political convulsions before. In the past 15 years, street protests have precipitated the rise and fall of two governments, in 2006 and 2014, respectively. But the latest unrest reveals a revolutionary cultural shift in the country. In the past, the principal battle was among political factions vying for power. Today, Thai citizens are openly challenging the monarchy. An institution that was once untouchable has fallen from its pedestal and become subject to public debate, scorn, and even repudiation.

IN WITH THE NEW

A pro-democracy protester skateboards across a banner of Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha during an anti-government demonstration at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok on November 8, 2020. /Getty

Today’s protests follow earlier political upheavals that shook the country for years. Two factions— known euphemistically as the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts for their chosen colors—have wrangled for political control in Thailand since 2006.

Their feuding catalyzed a military coup in 2006, which toppled the Red Shirt–backed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The Red Shirts protested against the coup, which led to a brutal military crackdown in 2010. Authorities held elections again in 2011 that resulted in the nomination of Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister. In 2014, a conservative umbrella group that included the Yellow Shirts staged antigovernment protests. The military then forced another coup, installing Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army chief, as prime minister, ostensibly in order to ensure an orderly transition from the declining King Bhumibol Adulyadej to his son, Vajiralongkorn.

Thailand’s young protesters have already accomplished what previous generations did not dare even to attempt: they have made the monarchy a subject for public discussion and critique. lar leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, guilty of violating election laws in early 2020. Suppression of the party sparked flash mobs at universities.

Since then, protests against the government have only grown in size and in the scope of their demands for change. Unlike in previous upheavals, the people now occupying public spaces in Thai cities are young—predominantly of high school and university age—and they seek fundamental change. Many Red Shirts have joined them.

This year’s protests suggest a profound transformation in Thai politics and culture. Bhumibol ascended the throne as a teenager in 1946 and ruled for 70 years, during which time Thai politicians and citizens largely respected the monarchy as a symbol of stability. But the ascension of Vajiralongkorn changed that dynamic. In August, the human rights lawyer Anon Nampa called for reform of the monarchy at a protest. In doing so, he publicly broke the taboo against speaking critically of the monarchy.

Protesters have since unleashed a flood of criticism of the king that was unthinkable just months earlier and that authorities have been unable to stanch.

These critics are not calling for the abolition of the That transition is now over. Vajiralongkorn as- monarchy, but they are demanding reform: more lesumed the throne in 2016 in the wake of his fa- gal limits on the king, financial audits of his wealth, ther’s death. Changes made to the constitution in and the imposition of other forms of oversight on 2017 ensured that Prayuth remained prime minister royal activities. following elections in 2019, indicative of the degree of control the army maintains over the appa- CULTURAL SHIFT ratus of government. But Prayuth did not anticipate the strong showing of a new progressive political If public attitudes toward the monarchy have party, Future Forward, which won the support of shifted, so, too, has the character of the monarch. many younger voters. Thailand’s Constitutional Vajiralongkorn cuts a figure that contrasts starkly Court—which serves the interest of the ruling jun- with that of his widely respected father. Bhumibol ta—dissolved Future Forward and found its popu- promoted frugality, personal reserve, and tradition-

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al monogamy. His son has been married four times and resurrected the long-dead institution of polygyny. On his birthday in 2019, Vajiralongkorn appointed Sineenat Wongvajirapakdi his “royal noble consort.” But he then quickly spurned and demoted her, prompting rumors that she had been imprisoned or even killed. He reinstated her this year with a snap of his fingers. Many Thais see Vajiralongkorn’s treatment of his former wives and Sineenat as not just callous and fickle but misogynistic. The king has departed greatly from the image of public probity his father once cultivated. Vajiralongkorn indulges in an opulent lifestyle, lives for much of the year in Germany (where he is rumored to stay in a luxury hotel in the Bavarian Alps), and has expressed little concern about the economic hardships that Thais now suffer as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a result, Thai social media is full of satire and bitter invective directed at the monarch. The derision shocks many Thai observers and would have been unthinkable under the previous king. But the floodgates have opened. Protesters at demonstrations and on social media have turned the king’s own statements into mocking slogans, repeating his words with derision. Undergraduates at Thammasat University refused to attend their graduation ceremony rather than receive their diplomas from a member of the royal family—some of the graduates photographed themselves with a cardboard cutout of a local bean hawker instead. Protesters also have changed the very language with which they speak about the king: instead of using ratchasap, or the

This year’s protests suggest a profound transformation in Thai politics and culture.

register required when addressing royalty, they use pronouns and terms that are respectful but reflect the idea of the king as a human being like them rather than a semidivine superior. Some have even dared to use the most colloquial register, which is exceptionally offensive when speaking about royalty.

Social media has played a pronounced role in the current unrest. The army and government agencies have long controlled the traditional broadcast media, but now many young protesters in Thailand have access to TikTok, Twitter, and Facebook, which they use to share their opinions about politics.

Authorities have struggled to control these avenues of expression, and their efforts have met resistance from the social media companies themselves: Twitter suspended a popular royalist account for trying to manipulate the platform. Social media has linked protesters to Thai dissidents in France, Germany, and the United States, as well as to pro-democracy

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Thai pro-democracy protesters hold rubber ducks, a protector symbol of the protesters, during a rally on November 27, 2020 in Bangkok, Thailand. )(Getty

and rainbows. In effect, the demonstrations have become avenues for young people not just to refuse royalism but also to demand the right to nonconformity.

GENERATIONAL CHANGE The uprising has had the immediate political consequence of placing Prayuth, the prime minister, in a bind. Protesters have consistently demanded Prayuth’s resignation, but he has been unwilling to budge. Vajiralongkorn does not appear to trust Prayuth or his allies: in October of last year, the king went so far as to take direct control of two crucial army units located in Bangkok, and in 2018 he established a special security division, now known as the King’s Guards 904, with the explicit objective of protecting the monarchy and serving as the king’s personal security force.

advocates in Hong Kong and Taiwan, in what has been dubbed “the Milk Tea Alliance.” Thai fans of K-pop (Korean popular music) have raised more than $100,000 to supply protesters with protective equipment, such as helmets and goggles, and legal assistance in case they are arrested.

The new generation’s understanding of democracy encompasses a commitment to equality, including gender and sexual equality, that stands in contrast to the patriarchal culture of the monarchy and the political establishment. While the color-coded protests were led by middle-aged straight men, protest leaders today include women, gay men, and lesbians. The majority of demonstrators clamoring for change seem to be young women. Female protest leaders have highlighted the fact that Thailand’s most powerful institutions—the military, the monarchy, and the monkhood—are dominated by men and have little or no place for women. And the protests have a campy style, replete with drag queens

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Prayuth’s days may be numbered: he is unpopular in the streets and no longer seems to enjoy the backing of the king. But even though demonstrators have no great love for the prime minister, a potential military coup against Prayuth now would only widen the chasm between the new generation of protesters and the military and monarchy.

A coup would likely bring to power army officers more willing to use violence against people they see as opponents of the palace and the military.

The military considers itself first and foremost the protector of the monarchy. Thailand’s new generation of protesters is therefore questioning both of these institutions by criticizing one. With the king’s backing, Thai military authorities could put the protests down with violence. But such repression would only further disillusion young Thais and undermine the legitimacy of the monarchy and military.

Thailand’s young protesters have already accomplished what previous generations did not dare even to attempt: they have made the monarchy a subject for public discussion and critique. They have voiced this radical dissent so intensely and pervasively that it cannot be silenced without cost.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Dangers of Vaccine Disillusionment

A Viable Immunization Is Good News, but Realities Won’t Match Expectations for Many Months

by Josh Michaud, Jen Kates November brought some of the best news of the COVID-19 pandemic: strong evidence that novel coronavirus vaccines currently under development will work. That was

never a forgone conclusion. But it is now almost certain that several different effective coronavirus vaccines will become available within the next few months.

Developing a vaccine is just the first step in a long jour-

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ney toward ending the pandemic, however. Even more daunting tasks await policymakers and health workers after pharmaceutical companies ship the first doses out the door. To eliminate the risk of future outbreaks, as much as 70 percent of the world’s population will need to be immune to the coronavirus—through vaccination or infection and recovery. Given that only an estimated ten percent of the world’s population has had COVID-19 to date (with most infections concentrated in a relatively small number of countries), that leaves an extraordinarily high target for global vaccination efforts. Achieving this will take an astonishing feat of global cooperation, one that may prove more difficult and take much longer than most people realize.

Once it becomes clear that a vaccine won’t mean immediate deliverance from the crisis, there is a risk that popular disillusionment could set in, deepening the creeping skepticism of vaccines in parts of the world and adding to the already formidable challenge of immunizing more than half the global population. Governments must therefore guard against popular frustrations by communicating clearly and tempering expectations—all while pushing forcefully ahead with immunization campaigns to save as many lives as possible.

VACCINE HOARDERS

A protester holds an anti-vaccination sign as supporters of President Donald Trump rally to reopen California as the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen, on May 2020 ,16 in Woodland Hills, California.(Getty)

Several vaccines may be on the cusp of approval, but it will be a year at least until they are widely available in much of the world. High-income countries have already reserved the first nine billion or so doses of the leading vaccine candidates through direct bilateral deals with pharmaceutical companies. Fulfilling these orders will eat up the bulk of global vaccine production capacity for the next 12 months and possibly longer. An estimated 80 percent of the vaccine doses Pfizer and BioNTech expect to produce in 2021 are already reserved, for instance, as are 100 percent of the doses Moderna expects to produce.

Rich countries haven’t just pushed to the front of the line to secure preferential access for their populations. Many of them have hedged their bets by hoarding supplies of multiple vaccine candidates. Australia, Canada, Japan, the United States, and the countries of the European Union have reserved enough doses to vaccinate their entire populations several times over. It is possible that these countries will eventually decide to forgo their excess doses or donate them, but most will likely wait to do so until their own populations have been vaccinated.

Low-income countries will find themselves at the end of the queue, forced to rely on donor-financed mechanisms for their vaccines. The most promising such mechanism

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With shortages likely to remain a reality in much of the world for at least a year and distribution challenges set to slow immunization efforts long after that, the world should be prepared for COVID19- to linger for some time. is COVAX, a multilateral initiative spearheaded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Initiatives, the Gavi Alliance, and the World Health Organization that aims to ensure equitable global access to coronavirus vaccines.

With the exception of Russia and the United States, both of which have refused to participate, practically every developed country in the world has signed up with COVAX to support vaccine development efforts, and many have also agreed to help finance the distribution of vaccines to 92 low-income countries once they are approved.

But COVAX still faces a multibillion dollar funding gap, and with so much of the world’s future vaccine supply and production capacity already monopolized by rich countries, there is only so much the initiative can do. Even if President-elect Joe Biden decides to reverse his predecessor’s position and throw the United States’ support behind COVAX, a best-case scenario would see only 20 percent of the population in low-income countries with access to vaccines by the end of 2021.

Just reaching that modest threshold will likely hinge on the approval of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, which uses a more established technology than the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA-based vaccines and will be easier to transport and store. Trial results announced last week indicated the vaccine was at least 62 percent effective and potentially higher depending on dosage. This may be lower than the roughly 95 percent efficacy reported by both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, but it is still high enough to help bring the pandemic under control. And although the AstraZeneca trial results reported so far might jeopardize a quick FDA approval in the United States, regulators in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and elsewhere could soon authorize the vaccine, which would start to open doors for global distribution.

Of the pharmaceutical companies with candidates near-

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ing the end of late-stage trials, AstraZeneca has made the greatest effort to ensure equitable supply of its vaccine throughout the world, even committing to provide doses at cost for the duration of the pandemic. Its approach will also enable it to scale up production more easily, since the materials, facilities, and expertise needed to produce its vaccine are in greater supply. AstraZeneca has already signed agreements with manufacturers in countries such as Braziland India, and it expects to manufacture up to three billion doses—enough for 1.5 billion people—by the end of 2021, with half this amount reserved for distribution globally.

Vaccine shortages in the developing world could be eased somewhat if other pharmaceutical companies agree to price vaccines at or close to cost and expand production capacity by transferring technology to manufacturers in developing countries. China could also make up some of the shortfall through the export of its vaccines, as it has said it would like to do. But trials of Chinese candidates are still ongoing, and full evidence of their safety and efficacy has not yet been published. Even under the rosiest manufacturing and export scenarios, however, international demand for vaccines is likely to outstrip supply until at least 2022.

NOT YOUR STANDARD IMMUNIZATION DRIVE Meeting the demand from poor countries is only half of the battle. These countries must then identify vaccine recipients, distribute doses widely and equitably, and address any hesitancy about immunization among the population.

Our research on vaccine distribution in the United States suggests that all of these undertakings will be fraught with difficulty even in the richest country in the world. They will doubtlessly prove even more complex in developing countries.

More likely than a swift victory over COVID19- is the beginning of an extended period of détente with the virus.

Among the hardest decisions countries will have to make in the initial phase of distribution is who gets the first doses. While part of the answer to that question will depend on specific vaccine characteristics, experts generally agree that priority should go to the most vulnerable populations—primarily health-care workers, the elderly, and those with health conditions that put them at risk for severe COVID-19 and death. Still, translating this guidance into workable policies won’t necessarily be straightforward.

Just to delineate these categories and design outreach programs based on them will take time and resources, especially in countries that don’t keep detailed records of demographics or health conditions. Existing vaccine distribution networks are designed to reach children and will be of only limited use in this case, as coronavirus vaccines will need to go to adults, at least initially.

Another difficulty will be ensuring equal access across geographic regions, income levels, and classes. Wealthy, urban, and politically connected populations are likely to

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Police officers speak to an anti-lockdown and vaccine protester during a demonstration against the coronavirus lockdown at Speakers Corner in Hyde Park on May 2020 ,30 in London, England.

(Getty)

lagging behind Asian and Latin American ones. Even more troubling, the survey showed that willingness to get vaccinated has diminished in recent months—from 59 percent to 54 percent in France, for instance, and from 72 percent to 64 percent in the United States.

Safety has frequently been a public concern with vaccines, especially new and unfamiliar ones. But anti-vaccine propaganda and misinformation, often distributed rapidly through social media, have compounded the difficulty of building trust in countries such as the United States, where vaccine development has become politicized. Because older adults will be a priority group for most early vaccination campaigns, rumors and misinformation will be a concern for all countries, not just the United States. There are sure to be a number of coincidental deaths following vaccination, and in the current social media ecosystem dangerous rumors can easily take off, potentially undermining trust.

This happened recently in South Korea, where more than a dozen deaths falsely associated with influenza vaccines sparked a public scare. The risk of false associations will be even higher with a coronavirus vaccine, given its novelty and the attention that will be paid to immunization efforts everywhere.

THE DANGERS OF DISILLUSIONMENT

have an easier time getting vaccinated than poor, rural, and marginalized ones. Correcting this imbalance will take additional time and resources. In other words, there is a tradeoff between ease and equity, and vaccinating on the cheap will result in unequal access. Including representatives of a broad range of communities and regions in the vaccine distribution process will help reduce political favoritism, neglect, and corruption. But all these issues are likely to hinder vaccination efforts, especially in countries where there is little accountability or transparency.

The final hurdle will be convincing people to be immunized. In one recent survey of willingness to be vaccinated in 19 countries, including at least one country from every region of the world, just 71 percent of respondents overall said they would be very or somewhat likely to be vaccinated, with the greatest willingness in China (90 percent) and the lowest in Russia (55 percent). Another survey of 15 countries reported similar overall levels of vaccine acceptance, with European and North American populations

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All these obstacles will hamper global efforts to immunize enough of the world’s population to stamp out the coronavirus. As a result, the risk of outbreaks will continue long after the first generation of vaccines is rolled out. Socialdistancing measures, border controls, and other public health interventions will therefore have to remain in place for many months to come. It is possible that disillusionment will follow, especially as health inequities between and within countries will become more visible over time.

Such popular frustrations could deepen skepticism of vaccines and fuel more dangerous disinformation, compounding the challenges of administering global immunization programs. In other words, disillusionment risks creating a negative feedback loop that ends up prolonging the pandemic. As a result, governments must be careful to set realistic expectations around vaccination drives and to carefully calibrate their public messaging.

The imminent arrival of effective vaccines is good news, but it won’t mean an immediate end to the health crisis.

With shortages likely to remain a reality in much of the world for at least a year and distribution challenges set to slow immunization efforts long after that, the world should be prepared for COVID-19 to linger for some time. More likely than a swift victory over COVID-19 is the beginning of an extended period of détente with the virus.

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olitics

Biden Must Stand Up to China on Human Rights The United States Too Often Finds Reasons Not to Act

by Sophie Richardson Raise human rights in meetings with senior Chinese government officials. Speak publicly and clearly about abuses instead of only to diplomats behind closed doors. Put the rights of China’s 1.4 billion citizens on the agenda in all major interactions with

Chinese policymakers, whether these concern trade, climate change, or anything else.

Such were the entreaties Human Rights Watch made of successive U.S.administrations for decades. Had the United States complied with them before Xi Jinpingcame to power, it would have done the bare

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minimum to promote human rights in China. Today the demands are laughably insufficient. As the administration of President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take power in Washington, the Chinese government is systematically assaulting ethnic and religious minorities, including by arbitrarily detaining a million Uighurs and effacing Uighur and Tibetan culture.

Chinese authorities have attacked activists and lawyers, made state surveillance omnipresent, and destroyed hope for democracy in Hong Kong.

The Biden administration will not be able to stand by, and it cannot treat Chinese human rights violations only as a foreign policy issue. Rather, the new administration needs to put China’s human rights abuses on both its foreign and its domestic policy agendas, because such violations threaten people not only in China, where sweeping campaigns of repression are well under way, but also in the United States, where companies, universities, and diaspora communities are vulnerable to Beijing’s influence. The human rights norms that China now undermines are global, and the consequences of their weakening will be global, too.

GETTING PRIORITIES STRAIGHT

Protesters attend a rally in Hong Kong on December 22, 2019 to show support for the Uighur minority in China.

(Getty)

Past U.S. administrations have tried to engage with Beijing on human rights. They have called on China to release political prisoners, offered asylum to highprofile critics of the Chinese government, and attempted to open discussions among Chinese officials and civil society leaders about human rights law and legal reform. But the task has proved Sisyphean, perhaps because the United States has tended to assign human rights a relatively low priority, and its inconsistent efforts have hardly kept pace with Beijing’s abuses.

The Biden administration has a formidable task ahead of it, but it should start by making human rights a priority in its China policy, reviving its alliances, and strengthening human rights institutions. tion, stronger human rights protections would follow.

No such thing has happened—instead, human rights abuses have proliferated.

The United States must now make itself a credible interlocutor for the Chinese government on human rights. To do so, the Biden administration will need to demonstrate its commitment to protecting those rights both domestically and globally. It will also need to take a principled and consistent stand on Chinese government abuses—one that does not prioritize making deals over addressing an urgent and deteriorating situation.

TIME FOR A CHANGE

Beijing has made alarming progress toward eroding established international norms, including that of holding states accountable for their human rights violations. The United Nations has become an important theater for those efforts. There, the Chinese government has harassed human rights experts and sought to exclude independent civil society groups from proceedings. Beijing has bullied other governments into supporting its anti-rights agenda and even signed The outgoing administration of U.S. President Don- other governments on its statements without seeking ald Trump has been frank about the abusive nature their support. of Chinese Communist Party rule, and it has gone so far as to impose sanctions on Chinese government of- Fifty UN human rights experts have issued a call for ficials, agencies, and companies credibly alleged to an urgent debate, a special session, and a special rapporteur to investigate Chinese human rights violahave committed serious human rights violations.

The United States has long subordinated human tions. The Biden administration should support that rights concerns to its desire to win China’s coopera- demand. Washington should also help the victims tion on other matters. For decades, U.S. policymakers of repressive Chinese policies, including Uighurs pushed China to liberalize its economy, arguing that in Xinjiang, to gather and preserve evidence of the if China opened up to trade and economic liberaliza- violations they have suffered in order to submit complaints, as allowed under such treaties as the Interna-

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tional Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. Chinese officials know that the government they serve will not hold them accountable for abuses, but they are sensitive to international criticism—enough to respond to it with particular intensity. For instance, Beijing has orchestrated Potemkin visits for hundreds of diplomats, journalists, and religious figures in order to cover up human rights abuses and manufacture support for its policies toward Uighurs. Violations of the scope and on the scale of those in Xinjiang carry the prospect of international scrutiny and legal accountability that responsible Chinese officials should be made to fear.

The United States under Biden will need to spearhead a coalition of like-minded democracies if it is to roll back Beijing’s anti-rights agenda at the United Nations. These countries should put forward candidates for the institution’s major offices, participate in its influential bodies, and insist that independent civil society groups—especially those critical of the Chinese government—are welcome at the United Nations.

But such coordination should not be limited to the United Nations. Many of the best tools available to democratic governments for imposing consequences on human rights abusers are most effective if many countries adopt them at once: targeted sanctions on perpetrators, for example. Last summer, Beijing imposed a draconian “national security” law on Hong Kong. Several governments—including those of the United States, Canada, Australia, the United King-

Human rights violations inside of China have global consequences: if nothing else makes that clear, the COVID19crisis should, worsened as it was by the Chinese government’s early censorship.

dom, and New Zealand—suspended their extradition treaties with Hong Kong in response. Further coordination of this nature could persuade Chinese officials to change course.

The Biden administration should seek to restore Washington’s ties to the remnants of independent civil society across China—including activists, scholars, lawyers, and religious leaders. Xi’s government has silenced, imprisoned, or driven into exile many people, such as Cai Xia and Nathan Law, who have promoted unconventional views or criticized the ruling authorities. These figures have sacrificed much in order to get Beijing to respect its human rights commitments—a goal the United States says it shares.

A DOMESTIC AFFAIR The Biden administration should treat the Chinese

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Chinese polic march through Tiananmen Square before during a national mourning to mourn victims of COVID19- on April ,04 2020 in Beijing, China.

(Getty)

government’s hostility to human rights not only as a foreign policy priority but also as a domestic one.

Chinese nationals, including members of minority communities, who study or work at universities in the United States have reported that Beijing seeks to control them by monitoring classroom discussions and threatening their family members, among other means. When those affected have brought their concerns to U.S. law enforcement or other agencies, they have found little understanding. And no U.S. administration has done an adequate job of preventing U.S. companies that operate in China from committing or enabling rights abuses.

The new administration should consider creating a supra-ambassador position to bridge the gap between the U.S. State Department, where most expertise on China currently resides, and the domestic agencies.

This new official could help law enforcement and educational institutions, for example, and respond to

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human rights violations emanating from Beijing, even while ensuring that these domestic concerns are a part of the U.S.foreign policy establishment’s brief.

Human rights violations inside of China have global consequences: if nothing else makes that clear, the COVID-19 crisis should, worsened as it was by the Chinese government’s early censorship. The Xi government threatens human rights globally even more than it did four years ago. The Biden administration has a formidable task ahead of it, but it should start by making human rights a priority in its China policy, reviving its alliances, and strengthening human rights institutions. By taking the lead on this important issue, the United States could bring some relief to those around the world now struggling to secure their rights.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Photography Has Gotten Climate Change Wrong from the Start

Smoggy-Looking Daguerreotypes in 19th-Century London Foreshadowed Today’s Muted Smartphone Photos of California Fires

by Kim Beil I knew something was wrong the minute I woke up. On September 9, the sky was still dark at 7:15 a.m. Eventually it revealed a deep-orange light, darker and dustier than any sunset. After a dry lightning storm in late August had sparked more

than 900 fires around California, high-altitude smoke hung over the San Francisco Bay Area.

I took a photo out the window with my iPhone.

It wasn’t right. I tried again, tapping the screen and dragging the exposure slider down. Still, the tawny orange of the sky didn’t register.

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Phone cameras had busily corrected the unnatural view, making it seem more like a pretty picture rather than what it was: a terrifying and true example of the effects of humangenerated climate change. of taking the picture. No software engineer had predicted this apocalyptic scenography—created by an unusually active fire season that kept consuming forests deep into November. So phone cameras had busily corrected the unnatural view, making it seem more like a pretty picture rather than what it was: a terrifying and true example of the effects of human-generated climate change.

News articles portrayed smartphone photographers’ dilemma as something of a novelty. The San Francisco Chronicle quickly published an explainer online: “Why your phone camera can’t capture Northern California’s orange sky.” Yet anthropogenic forces reshaping the environment have flummoxed photographers before. Many improvements in photographic technology aim to enhance what we see, offering up the world as we imagine it or want it to be. Sometimes we struggle to understand the gulf between the representation and the gross reality before our eyes.

Sometimes photos help us understand a changing climate; sometimes they obscure it.

San Francisco Orange Sky during Fire Season (Getty)

In the mid-19th century, England’s infamous industrial smog was blamed for the poor quality of early photographs made there. Daguerreotypes, the first publicly available photographic process, can possess exceptional detail and luminosity, but critics at the time found English daguerreoThe iPhone rendered it a pale yellow, the foretypes dark and ill-defined. At the first World’s boding automatically corrected by the camera’s Fair, held at London’sCrystal Palace in 1851, built-in software. Manually fiddling with the American photographers won three of the five controls, I darkened a few images and increased medals awarded to daguerreotypes. One corthe warmth. Then I watched as my Instagram respondent from the United States wrote of the and Twitter feeds filled up with nearly identical exhibition: “The excellence of American pictures views from all around the Bay Area, many acis evident, which is to be accounted for by sevcompanied by captions describing the difficulty

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eral reasons. In the first place, American skies are freer from fog and clouds—from bituminous coal not being much used, the atmosphere of our cities is free from smoke.”

The smoke and industrial “fog” of London (the catchall term used for fog and smog in the 19th century) appeared frequently in descriptions of the city. Charles Dickens wrote in Bleak House of the “smoke lowering down from chimneypots, making a soft black drizzle, with flakes of soot in it as big as full-grown snowflakes—gone into mourning, one might imagine, for the death of the sun.” Oscar Wilde cited “the yellow fog” in his poem “Impressions du Matin.”

Despite the foul-smelling evil gloom of the fog, Claude Monet relished its effect on the light. He wrote in a letter: “I can’t begin to describe a day as wonderful as this. One marvel after another, each lasting less than five minutes, it was enough to drive one mad. No country could be more extraordinary for a painter.”

Critics of English daguerreotypes blamed the smoggy skies for shadowy pictures, even those made indoors, such as portraits. However, American photographers who set up shop in London didn’t have the same problem. John Jabez Edwin Mayall, a successful Philadelphia photographer, relocated his studio to London in 1846, where he became known for the quality of his large-scale portraits. One photographic journalist wrote in 1853: “Mayall is known as the ‘American Daguerreotypist,’ and is considered about the best

Seven of California’s 10 largest fires in recorded history have occurred within the past three years, five of them since August of this year.

in London. His specimens are certainly proof that the fogs of London are not the cause of Daguerreotypists failing in procuring clear pictures; for many of his are equal to the best ever taken.”

Many photographic chemicals produced by American manufacturers and sold in Europe referred to their country of origin in the brand name, such as “Wolcott’s American Mixture,” a chemical solution that increased the light sensitivity of the daguerreotype plate. Greater sensitivity to light meant that pictures could be taken more rapidly, thereby improving the sharpness and definition of the image. Electroplating, which increased the brightness of the plate through the addition of extra silver layers, was described as “the American process.” The bitter irony is that chemical innovations in the United States would later contribute to the country’s own pollution problems.

Even though the American products and process-

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The Thames at Charing Cross Bridge

by Claude Monet (Getty)

have occurred within the past three years, five of them since August of this year.

In the 19th century, critics were so alert to the presence of air pollution that they erroneously thought it was affecting their photographs. But today, our cameras seem to deny that such anthropogenic weather even exists. A simple software fix could rectify that. Alongside all the other white-balance icons—pictures of the sun, a building in shade, and a lightbulb—wildfire sky could be represented by the burning of fossil fuels: smokestacks, airplanes, exhaust pipes, just so there’s no mistaking this tragic sight for an extraordinary one, as Monet did.

A smartphone camera is an aide-mémoire. Not only do we use it to record major events and milestones, but we snap thousands of pictures of What’s for dinner?, There’s my dog, Here are my feet, and reminders, such as Buy this brand of shampoo for me, please. Several months from now, when California is green and gorgeous again, the dusty-orange photos from this fall will show up in residents’ otherwise banal photo libraries.

es were well known, some critics held fast to the smog hypothesis. Not only was it a good excuse for the British photographers in an era of intense national competition, but the chemical failures of their daguerreotypes also looked uncannily like the dark clouds witnessed in London. Only a dozen years after the first public announcement of photography, people already believed that the medium should represent the world as they saw it.

This summer and fall, amateur photographers in California looked for technological tips to make their smartphone photos more accurately represent the smoke-obscured skies. Smartphones and other consumer-grade cameras offer a series of preset color temperatures: deep shade, open shade, bright sun, and fluorescent and tungsten lighting. Will your next phone include a setting for “wildfire sky” as it becomes a new reality, at least in the western United States? Seven of California’s 10 largest fires in recorded history

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In contrast, disappearance was almost a natural part of the 19th-century photograph’s life cycle, so we have few surviving examples of bad British daguerreotypes, which looked so smoggy to critics. These historic pictures may have vanished because of poor chemical fixing, or perhaps they were discarded because they just weren’t good enough to keep. In the 21st century, our trillions of photographs—good and bad, true and false representations—just might outlast us all.

Adding a wildfire-sky white-balance setting may feel too much like giving up, like accepting our fate. But these devastating weather events will most certainly continue. Climate-related catastrophes will also worsen, unless we accept responsibility for them and change behaviour on a global scale. For that, we need to remember their terrible impact on our daily lives; we need to see the orange glow casting a pall over all the other memories in its midst.

This article was originally published in The Atlantic Online

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Under the Guise of Family Cohesion, Women in Gaza Conceal a Life of Domestic Violence Stories of Fractures, Wounds and Permanent Disabilities Gaza : Mohammad Abu Doun The doctor was cutting the suture thread that hung down from the head of -33year-old Marwa when the whole place fell into a chilling silence. “How was your head fractured this deep?”

He asked her twice before her father broke the silence with his

calm reply “The ceiling fan fell on her head at night, doctor.”

The doctor looked over his glasses at him trying to believe what he just heard. The old man continued his story gesturing towards his witnesses and said, “you can even ask her husband and brother, they are here in front of you.” Six eyes looked at the patient threateningly in a terrifying scene; she nodded her

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head approvingly as the doctor tried to verify the authenticity of the story from her side. The story ended there, but perhaps it had actually just started.

Marwa is a pseudonym for a rural wife. She has five children and lives with a family that believes that women must be subordinate to men in all matters of life. Her case is one of many that ends “a kiss on the head or a simple apology”; as long as she stayed alive.

The writer of the report needed the assistance of one of the nurses to meet Marwa inside the “Indonesian” Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip during a follow-up doctor appointment and wound dressing change. She had to beg her husband to allow her to visit the doctor. He insisted that the wound will heal on its own at home. He said: “We don’t want a slip of your tongue leading us to further investigation, and we do not need this now.”

HE RETURNED BUT DID NOT FIND HER

An event in Gaza carried out to combat violence against women

So, what is the story of this incident? Marwa recalls that a week ago, when her husband returned from the farmland, where he works with his brothers, he did not find her at home.

One of her neighbors had called her earlier and asked her to help her make spinach pies.

At that time, her husband flamed up with rage and started searching for her. When she returned home, she saw him standing next to the kitchen door and greeted him. He did not reply but immediately hit her with a rolling pin on her head, causing a huge crack.

She continues her conversation, “My parents who live near me knew and came quickly, and I was carried to the hospital. All the way, my mother was dictating me what to say if anyone asked me who caused my injury. She repeatedly reminded me that this is my husband and the father of my children. “Will you put him in jail and humiliate him? If this happens, he will kick you out of the house and divorce you,” she stressed.

“I was compelled to do what she wanted, and I was sure that the doctor did not believe the story, but because I am legally the victim, no other words were more effective than mine,” she added. Marwa also pointed out that her husband did not receive any punishment, and it all ended with a lame discharge permission from the hospital and a false cause of the injury, which is the falling fan.

Marwa’s story is just one of dozens whose protagonist was exposed to poorly justified male domestic violence within Palestinian society which conceived the notion of male authority and frightened women from filing a complaint against the aggressors, “to preserve the family’s cohesion and its image in front of people who look down with contempt on the girl that is claiming her right and call her disloyal and ungrateful”.

CHOCKED BY WORDS

In the Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis, south of Gaza Strip, societal norms ended the case of -22year-old Samar,

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The latest statistics issued by the Palestinian Statistics Center indicate that about 51 percent of married women in the Gaza Strip have been exposed to some form of gender-based violence. whose fate was to stay in bed for more than 10 days. The doctors monitored the medical condition of her fractured and wounded hand and wrote in the records that it was caused by “slipping in the bathroom and bumping her hand on the metal door”. Despite the police turning up this time to investigate, her family insisted on its previous story and forced the girl to confirm it, and the report was closed accordingly.

The nurse “A.M.”, who works at the same hospital, was standing close to the young lady listening to the conversation.

She was not pleased in any way. How could she when she is the family’s neighbor who always hears Samar’s screams pleading for mercy from her brothers who kept abusing her whenever she was late coming back from university at the early hours of the evening?

The nurse says, “After everyone had gone, the young lady stayed accompanied by her mother. I approached her later in the evening and tried to ask her about the cause of her injury.

She only kept repeating that she fell while she was wiping the bathroom floor and cried. I told her that this was not true and that the police were not convinced in the first place, but she insisted on her story.”

DEFENDING HONOR

The mother was sitting on the edge of the bed, contemplating, and holding back her tears. As soon as the nurse left the room, she followed her and told her that she had something she needed to get off her chest since it was hard to confide in anyone. She then started to tell the story saying, “As usual, Samar arrived home at four o’clock where her elder brother was waiting for her with eyes burning with rage after the hour had passed two in the afternoon, and he began to threaten and menace Samar.”

As soon as the daughter entered the house, she went to her room, changed her clothes, and went out to eat. After a while, the father arrived, and the son went towards him and told him that Samar just came home. He whispered in his ear that his friend confirmed to him today what he had previously stated.

What is the story? The mother learnt later on that one of her son’s friends had told him that he saw his sister wandering around her university with three young women and two young

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men. In fact, the five were colleagues studying the same major and returning from a training course at a civil society organization.

“Without any further investigation, the father carried a large stick, called his two sons and all attacked Samar without any pity or mercy. They hit her excessively on her limbs.” She indicated that one of the brothers carried a sharp piece of iron and deliberately hit her directly, which caused her the wounds.

“They did not stop there, but they started hitting her on the wound site, and she kept screaming while her younger sisters and I were with her,” the mother elaborated.

After some long minutes, the -40year-old mother was able to push the three away from her. She called the ambulance, and while they were waiting, the father threatened to kill her if anyone knows what really happened. “She is our honor, and we are free to do whatever we want with her.”

“I had to give in to his request, and I did what he wanted and gave up my daughter’s right,” the mother said, adding that Samar is still suffering from a critical psychological condition till today.

In response to why she didn’t disclose the secret to the medical staff or the police at the time, the nurse said, “I will suffer from them. Her family is a group of trouble-makers, and they may hurt my sons.”

Doctors generally do not scrutinize much of the emergency cases

THE REASON? A CALL WITH HER COLLEAGUE

In early March -21 ,2019year-old Asmahan, who lives in the Tuffah neighborhood, east of Gaza city, stayed for more than five days in her bed suffering from severe pain all over her body as a result of her father beating her after he heard her talking with a guy on her mobile and asking him to bring some things she needed the next morning to the institute where they are both training.

She begged everyone in her home asking them to take her to the hospital because she was sure that she was suffering from fractures that needed to be examined by a doctor and treated. Still, nobody was able to fulfil her request because of her father’s order.

One of Asmahan’s friends, a journalism student at the same university she studies at, reported the incident to the report’s author. After desperately suffering for a long time, the helpless mother tried to convince the father to take her daughter to the hospital because if she were to remain without treatment, she would suffer from deformities and disabilities for the rest of her life.

The husband did not concede, so the mother took the opportunity while he was out and called one of her sisters that came to her hastily. She told her what happened, and her sister insisted on informing the police of the incident or at least to have the family elders put an end to this situation. The mother insisted that what matters now is treating Asmahan. “You should not tell anyone what I told you because my husband threatened to beat me and divorce me if this happened.” We then agreed on a story to tell the hospital that convinces them of otherwise.

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Gaza women regularly participate in activities calling for an end to the violence committed against them.

Gaza women join the call to stop violence against women

The aunt took the daughter to the hospital, and there the doctors insisted on knowing the reason behind the delay in bringing her to receive treatment. They asked about her parents, “Why didn’t they accompany her to the hospital?”

Everyone wondered. After much insistence and a threat to request the police and open an investigation that will lead to knowing the details of the incident, the two were forced to reveal what happened to one of the doctors who assured them that if they told him the truth, it would remain a secret between them. Asmahan received the treatment and came back home as if nothing had happened, and the secret remains hidden to this day.

INADEQUATE LAW AND REGULATIONS

Commenting on these cases, a source in the Ministry of Health in Gaza said: “In general, many similar cases arrive at hospitals. They are dealt with by the reception teams according to the story told by the family, and they often verify with the injured.” He stated that doctors, in general, do not scrutinize the urgent cases whose health condition is not serious.

The source, who preferred not to be named, indicated that every hospital has a police officer on duty, whose help is sought if necessary. But at the same time, he confirmed that effectively handling a case depends on the confessions provided. “Personally, I am quite certain that many of these cases are not telling the truth and are forced by the family members,” the source noted, adding that he witnessed several similar cases. Still, unfortunately, the law does not allow relevant authorities to overlook the patient’s statements.

During extensive research into Palestinian health laws and regulations, the reporter couldn›t find any information about

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Every hospital has an on-duty police officer who is called upon if needed whether or not a hospital is responsible for finding out the cause of a patient›s illness or injury. All that was mentioned was a detailed mechanism of the medical treatment and the method of providing the health service.

It is worth noting that the battered woman in her father’s house suffers from the lack of sufficient evidence or witnesses that enable her to convict the aggressor. In some instances, the mother is aware that the father is abusing his daughter for long periods, but she refuses to go to court to testify against her husband to protect her family at the expense of her daughter so that she does not lose the father or the financial provider, according to what was stated in the annual statistical report issued by the Ministry of Social Development in 2017.

In the same context, recent statistics issued by the Palestinian Statistics Center indicate that about 51 percent of previously married women in the Gaza Strip have been subjected to some form of gender-based violence. Nearly 30 percent of them have sought refuge in their parent›s or sibling›s home, whereas 3.65 percent preferred to remain completely silent about the violence they were subjected to by their husbands.

The percentage of women who were exposed to violence and went to a women›s institution or center to seek counseling was no more than seven percent.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Gen Lloyd Austin: The First Black Man to Lead the Pentagon

www.majalla.com

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How Do I Improve the Quality of My Sleep ?

8 Steps to Getting a Good Night’s Rest

by Harvard Health Adults need to average between seven and nine hours of sleep per night. If you›re over 65, eight hours might be enough. The occasional short night of sleep won›t hurt you.

The quality of sleep is really important. The stage of sleep that brings the greatest benefits is deep sleep, also called slow-wave sleep. It has that name because the electrical waves created by your brain become larger and less frequent («slow»). During deep sleep, your heart rate and breathing slow down and your muscles relax. You›re also much harder to awaken, and when you do wake, you feel groggy (and do poorly on brain tests) for the

next 30 minutes (it›s called «sleep inertia»).

Roughly 20% of your total sleep is spent in deep sleep.

What is deep sleep good for? It›s during deep sleep that your brain creates and stores new memories, makes a hormone that helps your tissues grow and regenerate, and «flushes out» toxins and waste products that have accumulated during the day. So getting enough deep sleep is really important.

If you don›t get enough deep sleep one night, your brain will compensate by giving you more the next night. This works fine unless you›re regularly not getting enough sleep. The best way to ensure you get enough deep sleep is to get enough total sleep.

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Besides getting enough total sleep time, what else can you do to improve your amount of deep sleep? Here are the top eight recommendations: 1. Go to bed and get up at the same time seven days a week.

2. Keep the room as dark as possible (invest in dark shades).

3. Don›t use mobile phones or laptops for 30 to 60 minutes before going to bed.

4. Avoid caffeine for eight hours before bed, and alcohol for two hours before bed (a «nightcap» may help you fall asleep, but it may also reduce your time in deep sleep).

5. Engage in regular daytime exercise, but avoid exercise in the evening.

6. Reduce carbohydrates and increase healthy fats in your diet.

7. Warm your body in a bath or shower before

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It is during deep sleep that your brain makes a hormone that helps your tissues grow and regenerate. bedtime.

8. Consider using a noise machine while you sleep.

Smart watches and similar exercise-monitoring wrist devices are getting increasingly good at helping you know how much total and deep sleep you›re getting. I recently got a smart watch, in part for this reason. We wouldn›t be programmed to spend a third of our lives sleeping unless it was important for our health.

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Gen Lloyd Austin: The First Black Man to Lead the Pentagon Majalla - London On Monday, President-elect Joe Biden announced his choice of retired Army General Lloyd Austin to serve as the next Secretary of Defense. If confirmed by the Senate, Austin would be the first Black American to hold the position. “He is a true and tested soldier and leader,” Mr. Biden wrote, recalling their interactions in Iraq when Austin commanded U.S. troops in the country. “I’ve spent countless hours with him, in the field and in the White House Situation Room. I’ve sought his advice, seen his command, and admired his calm and his character. He is the definition of a patriot. He rose through the Army’s ranks during his distinguished and trailblazing career.

Born in Mobile, Alabama, on August 8, 1953, Austin grew up as an exceptional student and athlete. Upon graduating high school, the future general was offered an academic scholarship to attend Notre Dame University but opted for West Point Military Academy instead, at his father’s behest. He graduated from West Point in 1975 and began his military career as a platoon leader for the 3rd Infantry Division in Germany. As his career progressed, Austin returned to school, earn-

ing a master’s degree in counselor education at Auburn University and earning another in business management at Webster University.

Austin spent his entire adult life as a professional warfighter, from his graduation in 1975 until his retirement from the Army in 2016.

In 2003, Lloyd Austin deployed to Iraq as the commanding general of the 10th Mountain Division out of Fort Drum in New York.

Austin was heralded as a Soldier’s Soldier, famously carrying an M4 service rifle instead of the traditional general’s service weapon, a pistol. Before departing that command, he would also deploy to Afghanistan. From there, he moved on to serve as the Chief of Staff for CENTCOM in 2005 until October 2006.

On 8 December 2006, Austin was promoted to Lieutenant General, and assumed command of the XVIII Airborne Corps, Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

In 2008, General Austin returned to Iraq as the commanding general of the MultiNational Corps-Iraq during the period when the surge forces were drawing down under Operation Iraqi Freedom. In 2009 he was assigned to the Pentagon as the director of

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the Joint Staff, followed by another tour in Iraq as the commanding general of United States Forces-Iraq, responsible for the transition of all U.S. and Coalition military forces and equipment out of the country by the December 2011 deadline. It was while serving in this role that President-elect Joe Biden worked with Austin, and he may have been chosen for the role of Defense Secretary specifically because of this feat. With the United States looking for an exit strategy in Afghanistan, Austin’s previous experience in such a quagmire may be of use.

In 2012 General Austin served as the 33rd vice chief of staff of the Army, the first Black man to hold the position, culminating his military career as the 12th commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) from 2013 to 2016, making history once again as the first Black man to command CENTCOM. He continued in that role until his retirement in 2003. He retired from the military on May 1, 2016, and is now the founder and president of The Austin Strategy Group.

His awards upon his separation from active duty include a Silver Star Medal for valor in combat, the Defense Distinguished Service Medal (with Three Oak Leaf Clusters), and the Legion of Merit.

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Reality TV Meets Video Games … on Facebook? A New Social Experiment

12 In-Game Characters Will Be Presented with Challenges and Resources While Exploring the Wilderness

by Todd Martens Part video game, part reality show and part animated series, a new project airing on Facebook

wants to shift the thinking on interactive television. «Rival Peak,» which will run daily for 12 weeks, allows for different levels of user engagement, unfolding as a scripted series that

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will shift based upon audience input.

At first glance, «Rival Peak» might remind you of «The Sims.» Only here we›re not controlling characters so much as prodding them along.

It also deviates from the Choose Your Own Adventure-inspired feel of many live-action attempts to meld games and television, including a number of relatively high-profiles examples from streamer Netflix.

Rather than emphasize big life-or-death choices, «Rival Peak» seeks participation in a more continuous, playful manner, hoping to forge emotional connections between viewers and players by encouraging the artificially intelligent characters to, say, read a book or pitch a tent.

If it works, it will be a seamless merging of games and television by pulling on the strength of the former — that is, regular feedback and communal involvement, rather than asking how a TV show can be more game-like.

It›s an «experiment,» says Facebook›s vice president of content planning and strategy, Matthew Henick, noting whether it feels more show-like or more game-inspired will depend on how actively audiences lean in.

Facebook wants to shift the thinking on interactive television. / Getty

«There will be familiar presentation styles to reality shows, whether ‹Survivor› or ‹Big Brother,› with gaming elements alongside it,» Henick says. «They›ll opt in to the gaming part.

On the top level, this is an interactive reality show that uses elements of gaming and is using a game engine.»

Of course, part of the appeal of a reality show is seeing real people make bad choices. In «Rival Peak,» the participants are brightly drawn animated characters, all of whom boast a cartoonish, claymation-inspired look. There›s an underlying narrative and a «Lost»-like mystery that will gradually reveal itself, but to succeed audiences will need to forge a connection with these characters in the same way we become attached to those in an animated film.

That›s where the gaming element comes in. The hook will be gently nudging characters along and

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«Rival Peak» seeks participation in a more continuous, playful manner, hoping to forge emotional connections between viewers and players seeing how (or if) our choices compare to the other viewers.

«People want their choices to matter,» says Stephan Bugaj, chief creative officer of dj2 Entertainment, the company that coproduced the «Sonic the Hedgehog» film and is working to bring a number of game properties to film and television. Bugaj, a veteran of the defunct studio Telltale Games, which worked on popular narrative games such as «The Walking Dead,» helped oversee the «Rival Peak» story line.

«Big variations — big swings — often go unnoticed or unappreciated,» Bugaj says when asked about a lesson from working at Telltale.

Thus, in «Rival Peak,» we›ll tap and click, depending on the screen we›re using, to influence character actions and dialogue and then sit back and watch it unfold. The show will run live for eight hours each day, but it›s meant to exist in the background — expect relaxing music — with viewers popping in and out to see what the characters are up to and what choices the community made. Actor Wil Wheaton will host a wrap-up show each week to hit major story points.

«What people really want is to care about character and influence the character journey,» says Bugaj. «The big plot moves are scripted, but how they play out is influenced by user input.

The most directly noticeable outcomes that users will be changing is who gets eliminated each week. But that requires us to then pivot the story to account for those changes.»

The more I dove into «Rival Peak,» the more it

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reminded me of one of the first computer games I fell in love with, the mid-›80s Activision title «Little Computer People.» I was transfixed as a -5year-old at the relaxed lifestyle of the tiny digital sprites that lived in our basement desktop.

Most of the time they went about their business without me interacting, allowing me to play the role of a godlike voyeur as I gently toyed with their domesticated, virtual lives.

«Rival Peak» exists on that continuum, from «Little Computer People» to virtual Tamagotchi pets. Only it has a Pacific Northwest setting with an underlying narrative that pulls inspiration from «Survivor.» The 12 in-game characters will be presented with challenges and resources to find while exploring the wilderness.

The project will certainly lean into its medium, even presenting elements that may appear like glitches in the game, only to reveal that the ingame characters are then talking about what appeared as an error. Such mysteries are, of course, fuel to get the audience talking, debating and concocting various character dramas.

«Even if they›re not live action characters, even if they›re not doing a lot of deep stuff, they just become a part of your world,» says Bugaj.

«It›s the Tamagotchi effect. Like, what did a cat Tamagotchi do? Nothing. But people cried when their Tamagotchi died. So there›s just the ability to spend a lot time with, and be comfortable with, the character. That›s a big boost that I don›t think

«Even if they›re not live action characters, even if they›re not doing a lot of deep stuff, they just become a part of your world,»

a lot of people look at. This is persistent and has the potential to be a part of your life in a way that doesn›t require a lot of your attention, like a Tamagotchi or a fish bowl.»

If «Rival Peak» finds an audience, the hope is that it will not only show the power of live, cloud-streamed games but further meld linear,

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Netflix FYSEE Behind The Lens for Black Mirror›s ‹Bandersnatch› at Raleigh Studios. / Getty

TV-inspired storytelling and interactivity. It›s an area filled with experiments, ranging from Netflix›s «Black Mirror» episode «Bandersnatch» to games such as «Quantum Break,» which tried to alternate between gameplay and a live-action show.

«If this experiment works, it will start to crack

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open the door for a new type of storytelling,» says Facebook›s Henick. «It›s one that is social amongst the people watching, one that›s interactive between you and creatives itself. I hope there›s more of these. I hope we can allow users to create their own. I think the key is that people are the center. People drive the story rather than just passively receiving it.»