Returning to Abnormal

A Weekly Political News Magazine

2

Issue 1800- May - 15/05/2020

ƒ „ … … † ƒ ‡ ˆ … ˆ …

Kim Yo-jong: North Korea›s Most Powerful Woman and Dictator in Waiting www.majalla.com

Abnormal Returning to

Â? Â? Â?

� �  ­

www.majalla.com

Â

Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

www.majalla.com/eng Although we are still in May, 2020 will surely be remembered as the year of the Coronavirus. The pandemic is the worst international disaster to befall the globe in recent memory, as it has caused deaths, job losses, national lockdowns and economic downturns. While countries are now trying to transition out of lockdown, China and Korea’s attempts to ease restrictions have caused new infection clusters to occur. Yasmine El-Geressi writes this week’s cover story that focuses on the different strategies each country is taking to reopen their economy, as the prospective of a second wave seems to be coming sooner rather than later.

Iran has been one of the worst hit countries in the pandemic as official figures show that 100,000 people have been infected while 6,700 have died from the virus. However, some reports from within the Iranian parliament shows that infections might be eight times higher than official reports, while deaths might be 80 per cent higher than official reports. Joseph Braude writes on Iran’s continued woes, as civilians are growing hostile towards the regime.

As the Coronavirus has been spreading in India, misinformation has been running rampant on social media and instant messaging platforms. Many of these fake stories claim that Muslims in India are intentionally trying to infect Hindus with the virus, thus sparking further discrimination and attacks towards the Muslim minority.

Yasmine El-Geressi writes on these growing incidents of prejudice as several international organisations such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have spoken out against such events.

President Bolsonaro of Brazil has thus far refused to implement any lockdown or social distancing measures across his country. He has downplayed the virus calling it a “little flu” and sees no reason why the economy should be halted during this time period. Government negligence and apathy has resulted in 201,366 infections and 13,930 deaths in Brazil and the spread has shown no signs of slowing down. Ali El Shamy writes on the latest in Brazil as Bolsonaro’s policies has seen him lose major ministerial allies, and more importantly, wide public support.

2

15/05/20

Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

‫الوكيل اإلعالني‬ ،www.alkhaleejiah.com :‫موقع إلكتروني‬ hq@alkhaleejiah.com :‫بريد إلكتروني‬ + 9714 3 914440 :‫ دبي‬،920 000 417 : ‫من داخل اململكة‬ +44 207 404 6950 :‫ لندن‬+00764 537 331 :‫باريس‬ +966 11 441 1444 : ‫ومن مختلف الدول‬

- ‫ طريق مكة‬- ‫ حي املؤتمرات‬- ‫مرخص لها الرياض‬ ‫تقاطع التخصصى‬ +44 207 831 8181 :‫ لندن‬- 4419933 ‫ هاتف‬:‫الرياض‬

A Weekly Political News Magazine

20 Bolsonaro’s Coronavirus Apathy

Comes at the Cost of Brazilian Lives

Issue 1800- May - 15/05/2020

Blamed, Attacked, Denied Treatment:

16 Coronavirus Fans Islamophobia in India

Does Washington Want 32 What From China?

24 No Island Is an Island - Not Even Britain

28 Democracies Have an Edge in Fighting Wars

44

Give Yourself a Lift 3

15/05/20

How Indigenous Zombie Horror

40 Film ‘Blood Quantum’ Became

Prescient in the Pandemic

S

napshot

4

15/05/20

Members of the displaced family of Tariq Abu Ziad break their fast together in the midst of the rubble of their destroyed home in Ariyha, Syria. Getty

5

15/05/20

S

napshot

6

15/05/20

Health workers spray disinfectant on a young girl in Khathmandu, Nepal. Getty

7

15/05/20

W

eekly news

the target and was hit, state broadcaster IRIB said.

U.S. Envoy Threatens to Trigger Return of U.N. Sanctions on Iran The United States publicly threatened on Wednesday to trigger a return of all United Nations sanctions on Iran if the U.N. Security Council does not extend an arms embargo on Tehran that is due to expire in October under the Iran nuclear deal. U.S. special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, confirmed the strategy two weeks after a U.S. official, speaking on condition anonymity, said the United States had told Britain, France and Germany of its plan. Hook

Newborns Among 40 Killed in Attacks on Afghan Hospital and Funeral

Taliban and other militant groups, ending a period of reduced military activity ahead of USbrokered peace talks that had been expected to start this year.

Gunmen attacked a hospital that houses a maternity clinic in Kabul on Tuesday, killing at least 16 people including two newborn babies, and a suicide bomber killed at least 24 others at a funeral on a morning of double tragedy for Afghanistan. In the capital, soldiers raced out of the hospital carrying infants wrapped in bloodstained blankets to waiting ambulances, after the attackers rampaged their way through the wards. The attack targeting the most vulnerable of civilians, including children just hours old and exhausted new mothers, caused a wave of horror and revulsion. The Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, in response ordered a resumption of a full offensive against the

Iranian Warship Hit by Missile in Training Accident, Killing 19 Sailors One Iranian warship accidentally struck another with a missile during an exercise, killing 19 sailors and wounding 15 others, Iran’s navy said on Monday. The incident took place during training in the Gulf of Oman, a sensitive waterway that connects to the Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Iran regularly conducts exercises in the area. The frigate Jamaran fired at a training target released by a support ship, the Konarak.

However, the support ship stayed too close to

wrote in the Wall Street Journal that “one way or another” Washington would ensure the arms embargo remains. He said the United States has drafted a Security Council resolution and “will press ahead with diplomacy and build support.” A resolution needs nine yes votes and no vetoes by Russia, China, the United States, France or Britain to be adopted by the 15-member Security Council. Russia has already signaled it is opposed to extending the arms embargo.

Confirmed Global Coronavirus Death Toll Passes 300,000 The global toll from Covid-19 has just passed 300,000, with nearly 4.5 million people infected. According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, at least 300,074 people have now died as a result of the outbreak. The institution says it has counted 4,405,688 confirmed cases worldwide. It’s important to point out that the actual death toll is believed to be

8

15/05/20

he has no interest in speaking to President Xi Jinping right now and going so far as to suggest he could even cut ties with the world’s second largest economy. In an interview with Fox Business Network broadcast on Thursday, Trump said he was very disappointed with China’s failure to contain the disease and that the pandemic had cast a pall over his January trade deal with Beijing, which he has previously hailed as a major achievement.

Donald Trump Clashes with Top Scientist Fauci Over Plan to Reopen US Schools far higher than the tally compiled from government figures.

WHO Says Covid-19 ‘May Never ’Go Away The World Health Organisation has warned that coronavirus “may never go away” as its experts predicted that a global mental health crisis caused by the pandemic was looming.

The global health body on Wednesday cautioned against trying to predict how long coronavirus would keep circulating, and called for a “massive effort” to overcome it.“It is important to put this on the table: this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away,” said Michael Ryan, the WHO’s emergencies chief. “I think there are no promises in this and there are no dates. This disease may settle into a long

problem, or it may not be,” he said.

Trump Says He Doesn’t Want to Talk to Xi Right Now, Could Even Cut China Ties U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a further deterioration of his relationship with China over the novel coronavirus, saying

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday (May 13) deepened his rift with top medical advisor Anthony Fauci over loosening COVID-19 restrictions, saying they “totally” disagree on whether to keep schools closed.

The issue of whether students should return to schools and universities in September is emerging as a flashpoint in the standoff between the White House and medical experts over how quickly to reopen the country.

Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said he found Fauci’s latest call for a highly cautious reopening “not acceptable”. “We’re opening our country, people want it open, the schools are going to be open,” Trump said. Fauci, an internationally respected expert on infectious diseases and a key advisor to Trump throughout the pandemic, testified in Congress on Tuesday that ending the lockdown too quickly could bring “really serious” consequences. “There is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control,” he said.

9

15/05/20

C

over story

Returning to Abnormal: World Braces for Second Wave of Covid - 19 Renewed Outbreaks in South Korea and China Show Continued Risk as More Countries Ease Lockdowns

by Yasmine El-Geressi Across the world, governments are embarking on enormous experiments as they work out how to exit their coronavirus lockdowns and resume economic activity. As there’s no international consensus over how best to do it, many countries are looking on nervously, asking themselves whether any of the exit strategies will avoid a second wave of infections.

With experts saying a vaccine is at least a year away, the

accepted thinking is that countries can come out of lockdown when the transmission potential of Covid-19 has fallen enough. In a population where everyone is susceptible, R0 – the basic reproduction number - is the number to watch.

This is the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection. For example, an R0 of 2 means each infected person infects two more. But once an epidemic starts spreading, some people in the population develop immunity. The key number then is R - the effective

10

15/05/20

reproduction number. This accounts for the number of people infected when some people in the population have developed immunity. This is the crucial number that matters for judging whether to relax lockdown, according to Shroders.

But Harder than the decision about when to lift restrictions is choosing which restrictions they should begin to ease and when as the evidence that when countries reach a specific number of cases they should take particular actions does not yet exist. “There are no absolutes here,” says Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation (WHO). Dr Michael Tildesley, an expert in infectious diseases at Warwick University, says that it is difficult to untangle the relative effectiveness of all the lockdown measures to work out what effect each of them has. “It may be that the only way we can do that - and get a real understanding - is when we start to relax them. We may have to lift a certain measure and monitor what that does to the epidemic,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The Briefing Room.

Several European countries that previously imposed restrictions have recently begun taking their first steps out of lockdown. Although the approach and results are mixed, none of the countries are going back to “normal.”

Students wearing face masks attend class at a middle school on April 27, 2020 in Chongqing, )China. (Getty

The UK government announced a series of adjustments to its lockdown on Sunday night, including allowing unlimited outdoor exercise and encouraging more people to return to work. This week Germany reopened its Hairdressers, playgrounds, churches, and museums, as well as some schools.

All restaurants will be able to reopen in mid-May. On Monday, half of Spain’s population entered “Phase 1” reopening, where restaurants, bars, and store can have limited openings, and hotels, gyms, and museums can reopen. However, some of Spain’s largest cities, including Madrid and Barcelona are still are still stuck with the same restrictions as last week In Italy, Bars and restaurants opened for takeout on May 4. Building sites and factories have also reopened. There will be no new measures until 18 May, when more shops will reopen, along with museums and libraries, the Catholic Church will be allowed to hold masses and sports teams will be allowed to hold group training again. The French government has also begun a staggered lockdown which has seen the country divided into red and green zones depending on the level of infections in different regions.

The big question is whether any of the exit strategies will be enough to keep the virus from coming roaring back. As Europe and much of the rest of the world wrestle with how to ease curbs on business and public activity, China, which implemented some of the strictest lockdown measures globally, is already facing the specter of a second wave of infections.

For most of the past month, China consistently reported small numbers of daily new cases, most of which were “imported.”

But health authorities in recent days said there were new local clusters of infections. In Shulan, a small city in Jilin

11

15/05/20

In South Korea, all it took to reverse the positive trend was a single undetected case: a young man who stopped in at several clubs and bars in Seoul the night of May 1. province, which neighbors North Korea and Russia, has been put under a partial lockdown since Saturday, with all nonessential transportation banned for its over 630,000 citizens.

The city has reported 13 locally transmitted cases as of today, ending Jilin’s more than two-month streak of reporting no new cases, according to Shulan’s mayor, who said the city is in “wartime” mode. The measures implemented in Shulan are reminiscent of those that were taken in the early days of the pandemic’s spread in China in January following the announcement of the outbreak in Wuhan. The outbreak in Shulan comes after authorities have re-imposed lockdowns in other parts of the northeast region in recent weeks.

The news out of China would be worry on its own, but it is not the only apparent success story to report a regression recently. South Korea, which has been praised as a model and a beacon of hope for the world in its desperate fight to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is now grappling with some of its largest infection clusters yet after authorities began to loosen some social distancing restrictions this month. All it took to reverse the positive trend was a single undetected case: a young man who stopped in at several clubs and bars in Seoul the night of May 1. Suddenly, scores of new cases were reported. Authorities then closed down more than 2,100 bars and other nightspots in its Capital on Saturday. Plans to reopen schools have been delayed.

The outbreak threatens to detail the success of a strategy that has gained praise around the world. South Korea has been widely lauded for its successfully proactive approach in averting a large outbreak of without resorting to oppressive restrictions over its people and chocking off as much of its economy as other countries have. Instead, the country of 52 million, managed to flatten the curve with a multi-pronged public health response based on extensive and rapid testing and tech-powered contact tracing, aided by social distancing, near-universal use of masks, and public cooperation. But its envied strategy may have now reached its limit. Before they were shuttered over the weekend, many bars and clubs in Seoul required patrons to have their temperatures taken and leave their name and phone numbers to enter—but some revelers left false or incomplete information. Officials in Seoul

C

over story

said they had only been able to get in touch with about 2,400 of the approximately 5,500 people who visited the affected area, according to local media. Authorities said they would try to track the remaining people with credit card records and police assistance.

President Moon Jae-in warned of a second wave of the epidemic later this year, saying the recent cluster underscored the risks that the virus which causes Covid-19 can spread widely again at any time. “It’s not over until it’s over. While keeping enhanced alertness until the end, we must never lower our guard regarding epidemic prevention,” he said in a televised speech marking the third anniversary of his inauguration. “We are in a prolonged war. I ask everyone to comply with safety precautions and rules until the situation is over even after resuming daily lives.”

The government estimates that the medical system can comfortably control Covid-19 if there are fewer than 50 new cases per day, and epidemiologists can trace the source of infection at least 95 percent of the time — milestones the country passed last month. A government task force of economists and sociologists, as well as infectious-disease experts, drafted a 68-page “guidebook for distancing in daily life.” It outlined measures like installing partitions at cafeteria and dining-hall tables, keeping masks on in church and having visitors to weddings, funerals, karaoke bars, nightclubs and internet-game parlors write down their names and telephone numbers so they can be traced later. It calls for workers with even minor potential symptoms of Covid-19 to call in sick for a few days. “There is no going back to the life we had before Covid-19,” Kim Gang-lip, a senior policy coordinator

The resurgence of cases in both countries, where the easing of lockdown has been accompanied by extensive contact tracing and quarantining those infected and their close contacts, underscores the difficulties that governments are likely to face as they emerge from lockdowns.

at Central Disaster Management Headquarters told The New York Times. “Instead, we are creating a new set of social norms and culture.”

The resurgence of cases in both countries, where the easing of lockdown has been accompanied by extensive contact tracing and quarantining those infected and their close contacts, underscores the difficulties that governments are likely to face as they emerge from lockdowns. It also serves as a painful reminder that countries that plan to stop infections after they lift their lockdowns with masks, good hygiene and social distancing may not be enough.

Jeff Duchin, an epidemiologist for the King County, Washington, public health department told Vox that in order to beat back the virus, countries have to be able to identify almost all the cases, “even a few cases, if unrecognized, will spark an outbreak that will spiral out of control,” he said. But this has been a difficult task even with the most diligent testing-and-tracing regimen. In South Korea, they have are using cellphone data to identify some 10,000 people who may have been in contact with the new cluster and telling them to get tested. China also introduced a health status smartphone

12

15/05/20

The stands at SK Wyverns club’s Happy Dream Ballpark, are filled with placards featuring their fans during the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) League opening game between SK Wyverns and Hanwha Eagles at the empty SK Happy Dream Ballpark on May 2020 ,05 in Incheon, South Korea.

(Getty)

app. In Wuhan, the city where it all started, residents must show their status to use public transport. If they’re green, they’re healthy and good to go. If they’re red, they should be in isolation as a known sufferer of Covid-19.

In an interview with The Telegraph this week, Dr Hans Kluge, director for the WHO European region, delivered a stark warning to countries beginning to ease their lockdown restrictions, saying that European countries should brace themselves for a deadly second wave of coronavirus infections because the pandemic is not over and that now is the “time for preparation, not celebration.” With an eye on the risk of a second wave, governments across Europe are still trying to ramp up the number of tests; introduce contact-tracing apps; and increase capacity in intensive care units to deal with severe COVID-19 case. There are early signs that a resurgence may already be here. After easing some restrictions, Germany has seen an increase of the reproduction rate of the virus above 1, meaning that one infected person can pass the virus to more than one other person, effectively contributing to the exponential rise in the number of cases.

European countries and others around the world will be

13

15/05/20

As most countries failed to do so during the first round of covid19-, it unclear whether they will do enough the second time around to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic. watching closely to see what happens in South Korea and China. But we know for certain is that coming out of lockdown will require swift responses and abundance of resources like testing kits and tracing apps to keep sufficient numbers of infected people tightly quarantined to prevent a surge in infections that would overwhelm their health systems. But as most countries failed to do so during the first round of covid-19, it unclear whether they will do enough the second time around to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

P

olitics

Amid a Rising Pandemic Toll, Iran Flashes Riot Gear to Quell Unrest Meanwhile, Tehran has Employed Cyber-Piracy to Hunt for a Cure 14

15/05/20

by Joseph Braude The Iranian leadership’s difficulties in coping with the coronavirus pandemic have grown increasingly stark, as internal documents indicate an outbreak substantially worse than the figures officially released to the public.

Key decision-makers, including Ayatollah Khamene’i himself, appear paralyzed on the critical question of if and when to re-open religious shrines. At the same time, popular discontent appears to be rising, and authorities have shown little ingenuity in meeting the disquiet other than to brandish riot-control capacities.

LACK OF DECISION AS LOSSES MOUNT Iranian losses from the coronavirus continue to mount.

While the official government tally puts the total number of infections at 100,000 and deaths at 6,500, a report by the research arm of the Iranian parliament found that the number of cases could be as much as eight to ten times higher, rendering the Iranian per capita infection rate among the highest in the world. As for deaths, the report states that Iran’s losses to COVID19- could well reach 80 percent higher than the official estimate from the Health Ministry, which now stands at 6,700.

An Iranian man wearing a mask walks past a mural displaying his national flag in Tehran on March ,4 2020. (Getty)

Such grim statistics appear to have frozen Tehran’s decision-making circles. At a recent meeting of Iran’s COVID19- Control Task Force on May 10, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei confessed his inability to decide on the critical issue of whether or not to re-open normally crowded religious shrines: «I have absolutely no suggestion about reopening or not reopening of the shrines and will submit to the views of the experts in the task force and will do as they say.» At the same time as he appeared to defer to Iran’s health experts, Khamenei nevertheless emphasized the importance of prayers during Ramadan: «People need to pray and appeal to the saints.»

Underscoring its inability to effectively manage the crisis, Tehran has generated new unforced errors in public relations.

Tehran’s mismanagement of the pandemic and the ostentatious wealth lavished on leaders of the ruling class led to a spontaneous outpouring of criticism from Iranians online. In the words of one Iranian activist and supporter of Mir Hossein Musavi, «Forty years after the revolution of Imam Khomeini, people were not supposed to be in need of rice, oil, and macaroni, which have been displayed at such an aristocratic place!» Another, exclaimed, «The existence of each family that is dependent on these [food] packages is a shame for everyone, particularly for [the Khomeini] family.»

Authorities have responded by highlighting their repressive capacities. In a recent interview with state media, Brigadier-General Hassan Karami, who since 2012 has commanded the anti-riot police, made a point of noting that «this year we are at the height of preparedness, from training to equipment and knowledge of the enemy threats in various areas.» Indeed, as if in response to the menacing undertones of Karami’s address, former President Mohammad Khatami took to issuing an unusually grim prognosis of the direction of public opinion, warning that a «cycle of reciprocal violence between the people and the government» could occur.

Meanwhile, in a tacit admission that Iran is unlikely to pioneer a solution to the coronavirus pandemic from its own resources, Tehran has begun to wage a campaign AS DISCONTENT RISES, IRANIAN OFFICIALS of cyber-piracy aimed at American pharmaceutical BRANDISH REPRESSIVE CAPACITIES entities. U.S. officials confirmed in an alert released this Wednesday that both China and Iran have been Underscoring its inability to effectively manage conducting a series of cyberattacks on American the crisis, Tehran has generated new unforced companies engaged in working to develop a vaccine errors in public relations. In a recent incident, for COVID19-. According to cybersecurity researchers, officials distributed food packages for the Tehran’s most recent targets include the pharmaceutical destitute around the palatial shrine of Ayatollah company Gilead Sciences Inc., which has produced the Ruhollah Khomeini. The harsh contrast between antiviral drug Remdesivir which has shown promise in the widespread economic devastation inflicted by recent trials as a potential treatment.

15

15/05/20

P

olitics

Blamed, Attacked, Denied Treatment: Coronavirus Fans Islamophobia in India Anti-Muslim Sentiment Could Threaten the Country’s Fight Against the Pandemic and its Relations with Muslim Countries

by Yasmine El-Geressi A hospital in India demanded Muslim patients and their attendants prove they didn’t have Covid-19 before being admitted for

treatment. The privately owned Valentis Cancer Hospital in Uttar Pradesh state apologized a day later “for hurting religious sentiments.” But the message written in black and white cemented for many the growing demonisation of India’s Muslim community,

16

15/05/20

who are being accused, without any basis, of conducting a malevolent campaign to spread Covid-19 to the Hindu majority.

Already a minority marginalised and under attack – it is a couple of months since Hindu mobs attacked Muslims in religious riots in Delhi killing more than 50 people – violent attacks on Muslims, including farmers driven out of villages and others beaten by angry mobs, have accelerated across the country. In the village of Harewali in central India, 22-year-old Mehboob Ali was attacked while walking home from a Muslim missionary conference. A video of the assault was shared on social media showing him shaking with a bloody hands and face. His attackers beat him and threaten to douse him with fuel and set him on fire.

They accuse him of intentionally trying to spread the coronavirus. In Jharkhand state, two newborn babies died after hospitals refused to admit their Muslim mothers. Muslims have also seen their businesses across India boycotted, posters have appeared barring Muslims from entering certain neighbourhoods, local gangs encourage Hindu vendors to attach saffron-coloured flags to pushcarts to identity themselves as non-Muslims, volunteers distributing rations came under attack with cricket bats and were called “coronavirus terrorists” when they distributed food to the poor, and others have been accused of spitting in food and infecting water supplies with the virus. In the Hindu-dominated village of Ankanahalli, a video shows the village panchayat president, issuing a warning that if any Hindu in the village is caught fraternising with a Muslim “you will be fined 500 to 1,000 rupees”.

An Indian Muslim offers prayer on a street outside Nakhoda Mosque which is closed during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against the COVID19coronavirus, in Kolkata, India on April 2020 ,29.

(Getty)

The surge of anti-Muslim rhetoric and violence has been prompted by a lethal mix of messages and videos circulating on Whatsapp and social media that have likened Muslims to “human bombs,” accusing them of deliberately spreading the virus. Hashtags like “corona jihad” and “corona terror” have been trending on social media. Videos purportedly showing Muslim vegetable vendors licking their produce or injecting food with saliva have also been circulated on social media along with calls to stop doing business with the community. Fact-checking websites confirmed that many of the spitting videos are either old or from other countries.

Several television channels added to the false accusations by attributing blame to a meeting of the Islamic group Tablighi Jamaat. Political leaders who should have known better joined the chorus. Senior leaders Bharatiya Janata Party-led government accused the Tablighi Jamaat of a “Talibani crime”, described their members as “human bombs, but in the guise of coronavirus patients”and called for Tablighi Jamaat leaders to be both hanged and shot. Kapil Mishra, a local BJP leader notorious for hate speeches, tweeted: “Tablighi Jamaat people have begun spitting on the doctors and other health workers. It’s clear, their aim is to infect as many people as possible with coronavirus and kill them.”

The hijacking of coronavirus as an excuse for discrimination began when the gathering of an Islamic missionary organisation, Tablighi Jamaat, which focuses on encouraging Muslims

17

15/05/20

In Jharkhand state, two newborn babies died after hospitals refused to admit their Muslim mothers. to return to practicing the religion as the Prophet Muhammad did, held in mid-March in the south Delhi neighbourhood of Nizamuddin, was singled out by police and government as being responsible for the spread of coronavirus across India. The convention, which had been given the go-ahead by the Delhi authorities, was attended by about 8,000 people, including hundreds of foreigners. After the event, delegates -- who had dispersed -- began to fall sick with Covid-19 and Indian officials embarked on a widespread effort to trace, identify and test attendees and their families. On April 16, India charged one of the movement’s leaders, Muhammad Saad Kandhalvi, with culpable homicide. If convicted, he faces up to 10 years in prison.

In a statement, the Indian Scientists’ Response to Covid-19 group said “the available data does not support the speculation” that the blame for the coronavirus epidemic in India lies mainly with Tablighi Jamaat. Meanwhile, India’s Ministry of Health has stopped blaming Tablighi Jamaat at public briefings - “Certain communities and areas are being labeled purely based on false reports.

There is an urgent need to counter such prejudices.” – but anger has nevertheless exploded across India.

The virus fears are only amplifying existing prejudices, playing into growing Hindu nationalism which in recent years has seen India’s Muslim societies increasingly marginalised. India’s 200 million Muslims, 14% of the population, are the largest minority group in the Hindu-majority nation, but they are also the poorest.

Many now feel they are being labeled as second-class citizens and infiltrators in their own country. The Muslim-majority states of Jammu and Kashmir have been stripped of their autonomous status, nearly two million people in India’s northeast Assam state, which shares a long border with Muslim-majority Bangladesh, were left off a controversial new National Register of Citizens, which critics feared could be used to justify religious discrimination against Muslims there, and a newly enacted citizenship law gives Indian citizenship to asylum seekers from three neighbouring countries, unless they are Muslims. In a report, Human Rights Watch found that India’s discriminatory new citizenship law and proposed policies have spurred further violence against Muslims.

It was in that environment that a Muslim group’s gathering became a focus of India’s coronavirus outbreak, but such prejudice will ultimately threaten India’s fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. As the economy falters, jobs disappear, resources become scarce, and as people panic because the number of rising cases, there is increasing risk that discrimination and violence will

P

olitics

spread. “The Indian government has issued a notice to counter prejudice, stating forthrightly: “If anyone catches the infection, it is not their fault.” There have been public efforts to celebrate healthcare professionals and other essential service provders.

But many Muslims and other vulnerable groups are so fearful of abusive treatment that they avoid testing for the virus,” Human Rights Watch said, adding, “If people can’t trust authorities and don’t feel safe enough to report their symptoms or contact history, the virus will spread more easily through their community and India as a whole.”

In addition to threatening India’s fight against the pandemic, discrimination and violence against Muslims also risks harming its relations with Muslim countries with which it has increasingly good relations. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in a statement on April 19 expressed “deep concern” about “rising anti-Muslim sentiments and Islamophobia within political and media circles and on mainstream and social media platforms.” In a tweet on the same day, the OIC condemned “the unrelenting vicious #Islamophobic campaign in #India maligning Muslims for spread of #COVID-19 as well as their negative profiling in media subjecting them to discrimination & violence with impunity”.

A day after the OIC statement, Modi posted on LinkedIn : “COVID-19 does not see race, religion, colour, caste, creed, language or borders before striking. Our response and conduct thereafter should attach primacy to unity and brotherhood. We are in this together.”

Several Indian state leaders also condemned the spread of misinformation that’s targeting the Muslim community though many have stopped short of condemning the violence. “Like coronavirus, there is another virus that is emerging and threatening social harmony: the virus of fake news and communal hatred,” said Chief Minister of Maharashtra state, Uddhav Thackeray on

Twitter.

There has also been a series of backlash from Gulf states and where millions of Indians work and with which India has strong economic relations. Trading relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states has transformed considerably over the years, with the bilateral trade volume surpassing $100 billion.

The virus fears are only amplifying existing prejudices, playing into growing Hindu nationalism which in recent years has seen India’s Muslim societies increasingly marginalized.

On April 27, Kuwait has appealed to the OIC to intervene in India to tackle anti-Muslim sentiment in the country. In a statement, the General Secretariat of the Kuwait Council of Ministers expressed its “deep concern” about the treatment of Indian Muslims. It called on the OIC to take “necessary and urgent measures” to “preserve the rights of Muslims there”. Abdullah al-Shoreka, a minister in Kuwait’s Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs, tweeted that it was time for Muslims to speak up against the persecution of their co-religionists. “Did those who commit crimes against humanity against Muslims in India and violate their rights think that Muslims in the world will remain silent about these crimes and do not move politically, legally and economically

18

15/05/20

Muslims walk maintaining social distanciation after attending Friday prayers at the ancient Shahi Jama Masjid during a governmentimposed nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against the COVID19- coronavirus, in Ahmedabad on March 2020 ,27. (Getty)

against them?” he said.

In a rare public movement, Princess Hend al-Qassimi, a member of the royal family of United Arab Emirates, citing tweets by Hindus living in the UAE, denounced those who were arraigning Muslims in her country. Princess al-Qassimi also wrote a column for Gulf News, with the headline “I pray for an India without hate and Islamophobia” in which she said: “The world doesn’t need another Hitler, but it needs another hero like Martin Luther, Nelson Mandela, or Gandhi. Killing your brethren doesn’t make you a hero, it makes you a dictator and murderer. A snowballing movement has been started, which has reverberated across the Arab world.”

There has also been a series of backlash from Gulf states and where millions of Indians work and with which India has strong economic relations

Indian embassies in Gulf countries, including UAE, Oman and Qatar, are increasingly cautioning Indians living in GCC states against posting hate-filled and extremist messages on social media platforms following Modi’s call for communal harmony.

Indian ambassador to the UAE, Pavan Kapoor, said: “India and UAE share the value of non-discrimination on many grounds.

Discrimination is against our moral fabric and the rule of law.

Indian nationals in the UAE should always remember this.”

Despite warnings, there has been a marked increase in the number of highly offensive, Islamophobic posts on Twitter and Facebook by some Indians living in the UAE and other Gulf countries. As a result of these posts, several people have lost their jobs, including chef Rawat Rohit, storekeeper Sachin Kinnigoli and a cash custodian whose name has been withheld by his firm

19

15/05/20

P

olitics

Bolsonaro’s Coronavirus Apathy Comes at the Cost of Brazilian Lives

As COVID19- Cases Rise, Brazil Looks to Become a New Global Epicentre

by Ali El Shamy The people residing in Manaus, a city situated in the Brazilian Amazon, have been living through a daily horror story. Everyday, mass graves are dug to receive those who have fallen victim to the novel Coronavirus. Moreover, the lack of measures taken by the federal government means that many more individuals will have their lives cut short from the virus. Brazil is currently on the verge of becoming a new COVID-19 epicentre; as of the writing of this piece 172,790 people have become infected with the virus, while 12,033 people have sadly died from the disease.

President Jair Bolsonaro, who was elected in 2018 on a populist platform, has refused to take serious measures to counter the virus, he instead insists that the virus is nothing more than a “little flu” and argues that it is no reason to put the country’s economy

to a halt. The current president isn’t a stranger to controversy; throughout his political career Bolsonaro has made a number of problematic comments. For instance, when he was a congressman, who openly expressed nostalgia for the time when a military junta ruled his country, and he once called black Brazilians “lazy” and “not good enough to procreate”. As president, he has been mired in international scrutiny due to his administration’s indifference toward farmers clearing the Amazon rainforest.

In spite of this, the president has maintained a fairly good approval rating throughout his time in office, however his relaxed response towards the spread of the virus has lost him some support from the public, and many of his political allies have started to alienate the president. While it is still too early to tell how the pandemic can affect the next presidential election, there is one prediction we can be sure of: many Brazilians will suffer from

20

15/05/20

preventable deaths due to the federal government’s inaction.

SHOWMAN BELITTLES VIRUS AND ITS VICTIMS

An aerial view of an image of President of Brazil projected on a building’s wall to protest against his government during a pans protest (Panelaco) on April 2020 ,16 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (Getty)

During Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, many international media outlets compared the leader to be to US president Donald Trump. Said outlets compared both men’s populist rhetoric, controversial statements and their extensive use of Twitter to attack political opponents. While some of the comparisons between both men are a bit shallow, when it comes to this crisis both politicians have shown apathy towards the severity of the pandemic.

While Trump initially downplayed the crisis and went as far as to call it a hoax, he eventually changed his stance and advised people to stay at home by the end of March (though he is now calling for an abrupt end to the lockdown, but that is another story). By contrast, President Bolsonaro was steadfast in his anti-lockdown, anti-social distancing stances.

Bolsonaro’s disregard for the virus is evident throughout most of his statements to media regarding Brazil’s rising death toll.

On April 29, the death toll in Brazil had reached 5,000, with 474 of said deaths recorded on that day. However when a journalist inquired the president on these deaths he calmly responded with: “So what? I mourn (the deaths), what do you want me to do? My name’s Messiah (referring to his middle name Messias), but I can’t work miracles.”

As previously stated, the president called the virus “a little flu” and called out the media for supposedly overhyping the situation and creating mass hysteria. The president’s antics did not stop there, as he would continue to make public appearances, subtly signalling to the public that he is going about his normal life just as they should to. While the President has been resisting a lockdown, the Federalist political system has allowed state governors to ignore Bolsonaro’s stances and put in lockdown measures of their own.

To add fuel to the fire, President Bolsonaro has been making grand spectacles to challenge the risks and dangers associated with the virus. Like Trump, Bolsonaro has been actively encouraging protests against lockdown. He would go a step further, however, as he participated in an April 20 anti-lockdown protest in Brasilia, where crowds of people flooded the streets waving Brazilian flags and holding pro-Bolsonaro placards. Addressing the crowds, Bolsonaro, who wasn’t wearing a facemask, called the protestors patriots who are defending individual freedom, which, he claims, state governors are trying to take away.

Weeks later he held a much more nonchalant display towards the virus; on May 10 the president planned to host a barbeque at the presidential palace but he then called it off sparking speculation that public criticism might have finally gotten to him. Those speculations soon subsided as Bolsonaro opted to instead attend a floating barbeque, where he was filmed happily riding on a jet ski and telling

21

15/05/20

In an even more bizarre development, drug gangs in some favelas have started to enforce a curfew on residents. his friends: “Seventy per cent are going to catch the virus.

There’s nothing to be done. It’s madness.” Understandably, the President’s actions prompted a public outcry, as many politicians and citizen used social media platforms to note that the death toll in Brazil had already passed the 10,000 mark.

The primary reason why the President has resisted lockdown measures was because of the adverse affects it would have on the economy. Speaking to Majalla, Doctor Sodfa Mohamed, a professor at Cairo University’s Centre for the Study of Developing Countries and an expert in South American affairs, noted that 40 per cent of the Brazilian population work in the informal economic sector. In other words, 83 million Brazilians rely on daily wages to survive. Moreover, as those informal sector workers are a major driving force for the economy, forcing them to stay home will have a detrimental effect on the economy.

STATE GOVERNERS GO THEIR OWN WAY Because Bolsonaro has shown no intention of tackling the virus, state governors in Brazil have decided to implement their own measures to protect those residing in their states. The governor of Tefe in the Amazon was one of the first to impose a state-wide lockdown, as residents would face charges if they left home. The only exception to that law was visits to hospitals, pharmacies and supermarkets. Soon after, northern state governors have imposed lockdowns, however in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, so far the worst affected areas in Brazil, have yet to have full lockdowns enforced. Instead, Rio’s governor, Wilson Witzel, gave a recommendation for citizens to self-isolate, and left it up to the state’s 92 mayors to decide whether or not they should impose a lockdown. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo’s state governor, João Doria, chose to enforce self-quarantine and even went as far as to close schools and most businesses. Despite his tougher stance, he would back down when Bolsonaro attacked his policies after a video emerged of policemen handcuffing a middle-aged woman for breaking lockdown measures. Just like that the governor changed his policy to advisory one rather than mandatory one. Though self-isolation wasn’t enforced, mobile carrier data showed that initially 70 per cent of Sao Paulo’s population complied with quarantine. But, weeks afterwards those same figures showed that now only 50 per cent of the residents are following the governor’s recommendation.

VOLUNTEERS HELP FAVELA RESIDENTS, WHILE GANGS ENFORCE CURFEWS

Brazil’s slums (called favelas) face a unique challenge of their own. Most of these shantytowns are small and overcrowded, making social isolation a difficult task for most if not all residents. Furthermore, most favela residents rely on daily wages to survive; as such many can’t afford to stay at home. Nevertheless, some favela residents do find themselves forced to abandon work if their towns enforce closure of businesses. While Dr. Sodfa Mohamed does say that the government offers welfare programs to those who work in the informal economic sector, the benefits offered are not enough to meet the needs of most families.

Like most state governors, the residents in favelas came to the realization that the federal government can’t be relied on for help.

Subsequently, many volunteers have taken it upon themselves to help their communities. A recent video report from The Guard-

Like most state governors, the residents in favelas came to the realization that the federal government can’t be relied on for help. Subsequently, many volunteers have taken it upon themselves to help their communities.

ians followed a young activist in the Acari favela who was gathering donations to make and distribute food parcels and “Coronavirus protective kits” (containing items such as face masks and soap) to residents. Many other activists are also shown to hand out information flyers telling people about the risks of COVID-19 and how they can protect themselves from the virus. The video highlighted the lack of basic needs in these favelas, for instance many houses do not have clean running water, many don’t have soap and most are shown to lack facemasks. Another group of volunteers in Sao Paulo’s Paraisópolis favela have also been distributing food to the residents, and they have also been able to get private ambulances to their area. These volunteers have also tried to develop their own quarantine system, as they turned one building into a quarantine house for the ill, and they also transformed closed schools into temporary boarding homes for the homeless.

In an even more bizarre development, drug gangs in some favelas have started to enforce a curfew on residents. Reports have shown that gangs in Rio’s City of God favela have been telling residents to not come out of their homes after 8:30 PM, or else they might face retribution from them. Many gangs have cited that they are filling the vacuum left by the government, and some have even said that they are the “last line of defence” against the virus.

BOLSONARO LOSING ALLIES AND SUPPORT

On April 16, President Bolsonaro dismissed his health minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta after both men disputed the government’s COVID-19 response. Mandetta publically criticized the president’s calls to reopen the economy, as he insisted that businesses should remain closed and people should stay home to stop the spread of the virus. The dismissal is a huge blow for Bol-

22

15/05/20

Residents of the Paraisópolis slum provide first aid training on May 2020 ,6 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

The local community organizes itself to fight Coronavirus in an autonomous way and offers daily food to thousands of people.

(Getty)

An excavator covers the coffins buried in a mass grave at the Nossa Senhora cemetary in Manaus, Amazon state, ,2020 ,6 Brazil on May 19-amid the COVID coronavirus pandemic. )(Getty

sonaro as he lost a cabinet member who was with him since he took on the presidency, moreover Mandetta was a popular figure among the Brazilian public. Just one week later, justice minister Sérgio Moro resigned from his post in protest of the government’s policies. Both events triggered loud cheers in many Brazilian cities, as residents came out of their windows to bang on saucepans and chant anti-Bolsonaro slogans. Dr. Sodfa Mohamed has told Majalla that ministerial officials aren’t the only politicians turning against the president, as many federal governors who supported Bolsonaro in the 2018 election are now dismissing his polices and leadership. For instance, Sao Paulo governor João Doria was once one of the president’s biggest allies, has now become one of his loudest detractors, even stating that his state is at war with the Coronavirus and the “Bolsonaro virus”.

When asked whether the left wing can capitalize on the crisis and use it for the 2022 election, Dr. Sodfa Mohamed stated that several factors would have to come into play. For instance, the left would still need to alleviate its public image, which was fractured following several corruption scandals. Furthermore the left would need to put forward a candidate that could appeal to Brazilian masses. However, she did not that both Bolsonaro’s falling approval ratings and the increase in anti-Bolsonaro protests present a good opportunity for the left.

?WILL HOSPITALS COPE WITH THE PANDEMIC

Brazil has a universal healthcare system, however studies show that the public health sector in the country is ill equipped to handle a crisis such as the Coronavirus pandemic. According to Health Management journal, sixty nine per cent of the ICU beds in Brazil are in private hospitals; meanwhile the other 35

23

15/05/20

While it is still too early to tell how the pandemic can affect the next presidential election, there is one prediction we can be sure of: many Brazilians will suffer from preventable deaths due to the federal government’s inaction. per cent of ICU beds are in public hospitals. This imbalance is further aggravated by the fact that only 25 per cent of the population has private healthcare coverage, in other words the vast majority of Brazilians do not have access to ICU beds.

Furthermore, Dr Sodfa Mohamed stated that Brazil has a history of viral outbreaks that have caused strain on the health sector, for instance just as recent as 2015 a large Zika virus outbreak happened in the northeastern region of the country adding pressure to public hospitals as well as health officials.

The professor went on to say that the fact that budget cuts have been happening on the health sector since 2016 doesn’t help matters. As it stands, Brazil looks to become one of the newest hotspots for the Coronavirus, but political divisions, apathy and incompetence has rendered the federal government ineffective, thus costing the lives of thousands of Brazilians and in spite of the rising daily death toll, President Bolsonaro has shown no signs of policy reconsideration.

P

olitics

Winston Churchill and General Charles de Gaulle visit the headquarters of the French first Army near Bemancon, France. They are conferring with General Jean de Tassigny. (Getty)

No Island Is an Island - Not Even Britain Brexit Breaks With Centuries of British Foreign Policy

by David Reynolds After years of wrangling since the referendum in 2016, the United Kingdom formally left the European Union at the end of January. “Leavers” were jubilant, claiming that the country had broken free of European “vassalage” and was now poised to rediscover its old strength. Many supporters see Brexit as a return to the proud traditions of British history. They invoke a national spirit of defiance and independence. Some compare Brexit with the country’s “finest hour” in 1940, when the United Kingdom stood “alone” against Nazi aggression. Recent movies such as

Dunkirk and Darkest Hour reinforce that image of a United Kingdom standing tall and proud, defying the German juggernaut that had rolled across Europe. Conservative politicians have lauded the popular children’s book Our Island Story by Henrietta Marshall (first published in 1905 and still in print) for its heroic account of the United Kingdom’s past as a singular nation, taking .on the world Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers like to think of the United Kingdom as that lone actor, bestriding the international stage. But the pro-Brexit, nationalist narrative misrepresents history. Brexit actually runs against a long-standing tradi-

24

15/05/20

)ahead of their meeting. (Getty ,2020 ,8 Downing Street in central London on January 10 Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson greets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outside

tion of British foreign policy, which recognized that the United Kingdom’s vigor as a global player depended on European security and that the country could never afford to become isolated .from the balance of power on the continent Even in the heyday of the British Empire, its leaders dared not take Europe for granted. At least since the Protestant Reformation in the sixteenth century, the country has worked to prevent the formation of a hostile bloc in Europe. That imperative meant using the United Kingdom’s wealth and manpower to build coalitions with like-minded states to frustrate would-be European hegemons. For its own security and prosperity, the United King.dom always had to be immersed in European affairs

ENTANGLED IN EUROPE

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers like to think of the United Kingdom as that lone actor, bestriding the international stage. But the pro-Brexit, nationalist narrative misrepresents history.

The pattern of entanglement is clear if one bothers to contextualize some of those showcase moments from the nationalist narrative: the very events that Brexiteers use to spin a gloriously independent history actually highlight the necessity of the United .Kingdom’s involvement in Europe

English fleet thwarted Spain’s attempted invasion. But the story of the armada wasn’t simply one of England holding firm against a foreign foe. Elizabeth’s support, covert and then open, for the Dutch Revolt against Spain in large part precipitated the invasion.

England hoped the Dutch rebellion would weaken the Spanish .position on the coast of the English Channel

Take, for instance, the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588.

Our Island Story evokes Queen Elizabeth I addressing her troops ahead of the looming Spanish invasion: “I know I have the body of a weak and feeble woman; but I have the heart and stomach of a king, and of a king of England, too.” Bad weather and the

More than a century later, in 1704, the English army fought alongside the Habsburgs near Munich and routed the forces of France and its allies at the Battle of Blenheim. The victory was one of England’s most celebrated, and its name lives on today at Blenheim Palace, a top tourist attraction in the United Kingdom.

25

15/05/20

P

olitics

The battle was emblematic of how British leaders have pursued the national interest abroad—in this case, by waging war on the far side of Europe to check the French King Louis XIV’s bid for “universal monarchy.” In 1815, British forces vanquished Napoleon Bonaparte, another French autocrat bent on European domination, at Waterloo in Belgium. The British won the battle .thanks only to vital support from the Prussians The wars the United Kingdom fought in the first half of the twentieth century were similarly entwined with European affairs. In World War I, France was now the United Kingdom’s closest European ally in fending off a new would-be hegemon: Germany.

Although British defiance in 1940 proved vital to frustrating Adolf Hitler, the total defeat of Germany was achieved only in partnership with the two emergent superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States. And after 1945, the security of the United Kingdom depended on drawing the United States into a permanent Atlantic alliance with Western Europe against its wartime .Soviet ally, now dominant in Eastern Europe Emerging from World War II a victorious nation and still a global force (even as it began to shed its colonial possessions), the United Kingdom stayed aloof for a while from the project of greater European integration. British policymakers deemed such efforts to be for “them,” not “us”—“them” being the defeated and occupied nations of Western Europe. But when six Western European countries successfully formed the European Economic Community in 1958 and embarked on further political cooperation, the mood in London changed abruptly, and the old diplomatic tradition kicked in. If current trends continued, an interdepartmental committee warned the cabinet in 1960, the EEC would become “the only Western bloc approaching the importance” of the two superpowers and “the influence of the United Kingdom in Europe, if left outside, will correspondingly decline.” Such diminishment would also likely damage London’s special relationship .with Washington

The EU remains far and away the United Kingdom’s largest trading partner in goods and services, accounting in 2018 for 45 percent of British exports and 53 percent of imports

The United Kingdom took until 1973 to negotiate its way into the EEC, because of two vetoes by French President Charles de Gaulle. But the trigger for applying in 1961 was geopolitical, and the government’s reasoning followed the historic pattern of British foreign policy. The cast list of allies had kept changing over several centuries, but the script stayed much the same: the United Kingdom remained deeply involved in European affairs, both to pre-empt a European hegemon that might threaten its own security and prosperity and to build a platform of alliances for its .ventures on the global stage

NAILING ONE’S TROUSERS TO THE MAST Brexit runs against the historic pattern by trying to do the global without the European. The United Kingdom now leaves a European bloc numbering 450 million people and must try to hammer out a new trading relationship with the EU as one state against a group of 27, which, despite internal bickering, has so far maintained its unity. That gambit seems all the riskier as China has become more assertive since 2016 and the United States more .isolationist The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU on January 31 is only the start of a long journey to an unknown destination. Until the end of 2020, the United Kingdom remains within the EU’s jurisdiction, but without having any say in EU decisions. During this transitional year, negotiators from the two sides are supposed

26

15/05/20

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson observes a 2 minute silence in Downing street to mark the 75th anniversary of VE Day (Victory in Europe Day), the end of the Second World War in Europe in London on May 2020 ,8. (Getty)

Johnson, who had to be rushed to intensive care after he contracted COVID19-, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, is now under pressure to relax his December 2020 deadline because of the virus. But his spokesmen keep insisting, to general disbelief, that the pandemic will not affect this timetable. .of future disunity

to hammer out a new trading relationship. The issues involved are dauntingly complex, but Johnson has ruled out any extension of the transitional period beyond December 2020. Failure to reach agreement with the EU by the end of this year would precipitate .the “hard Brexit” that British business dreads What’s more, Johnson has insisted that during 2020, the United Kingdom will also negotiate a trade agreement with the United States to prove that the British have escaped European vassalage.

But U.S. President Donald Trump will drive a hard bargain, especially in this fevered election year. In any case, even Johnson’s government admits that a deal with the United States could at best increase the United Kingdom’s GDP by 0.16 percent. The EU remains far and away the United Kingdom’s largest trading partner in goods and services, accounting in 2018 for 45 percent of British exports and 53 percent of imports (the figures for the .)United States are 19 percent and 11 percent, respectively While trying to carve out new relationships with Brussels and Washington, Johnson must also guard his own rear, because in 2016 both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. He can now expect constant friction over Brexit with the Scottish nationalist government in Edinburgh. And he ended up having to accept a de facto customs border in the Irish Sea in order to secure the 2019 withdrawal agreement. That agreement effectively means that Northern Ireland must be treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom, raising the prospect

27

15/05/20

As if all these problems were not enough, the world has plunged into a pandemic whose economic costs will be immense. On May 7, the Bank of England predicted a 14 percent fall in the country’s GDP in 2020, the sharpest annual contraction for over 300 years.

So why does the United Kingdom want to shoot itself in the foot with the added disruption of a “hard Brexit”? Johnson, who had to be rushed to intensive care after he contracted COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, is now under pressure to relax his December 2020 deadline because of the virus. But his spokesmen keep insisting, to general disbelief, that the pandemic will not affect this timetable. Asking the EU for an extension would entail a humiliating loss of face for a leader who has built .his political identity around “delivering” Brexit Johnson loves to present himself in a Churchillian mold: a charismatic patriot and a man of destiny. Undoubtedly, Churchill’s courage and obduracy were vital in the struggle against Nazi Germany, but they also got him into numerous messes during his career—his intransigent defense of British rule in India, for instance, and his romantic support for Edward VIII during the abdication crisis of 1936. Clement Attlee, then leader of the Labour Party, wryly noted the way Churchill “nails his trousers to ”.the mast and can’t climb down The current prime minister has nailed his trousers to the mast of Brexit. In the next months, he will have to decide whether to ride out the storm or trim his sails and change tack. But the course of Brexit already marks an important break in the history of the country. Johnson will not be restoring the United Kingdom to a former grandeur by taking it out of Europe. Instead, he’ll be turning his back on the hard-won wisdom of centuries of British .foreign policy .This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com

P

olitics

Democracies Have an Edge in Fighting Wars That Will Help Them Fight Diseases, Too

by Dan Reiter, Allan C. Stam People have long assumed that autocrats and dictators have an advantage in waging war. Today, as the novel coronavirus sweeps across the globe, there is some speculation that autocracies have an edge in fighting that war, too. Autocrats can potentially enforce shelter-in-place orders more effectively and use their surveillance abilities to better engage in contact tracing.

These concerns are without foundation. Contrary to popular be-

liefs, democracies are more effective in responding to various crises. Our political science research found that democracies are more likely than autocracies to win their wars. From 1816 to 1987, democracies won about 76 percent of their wars, while nondemocracies won about 46 percent of their wars. Even more striking, democracies rarely lose when they start wars, winning 93 percent of the time.

What is true of wars against armies is also true of a campaign against disease. Past studies have found that citizens in democ-

28

15/05/20

racies are healthier than citizens living under tyranny and that democracies suffer lower mortality rates than dictatorships in epidemics. Analyses of responses to the current pandemic have already found that once the tenth coronavirus case was reported, democracies were faster than dictatorships to close schools. There is good reason to think that the attributes that make democracies perform better in wars—especially accountable leaders and superior information flows—make them more effective in fighting the coronavirus as well.

WINNING THE BATTLE In our research, we found that democracies win wars in part because of the reelection anxiety of their leaders. Democratically elected leaders are motivated to avoid waging losing wars because they know that unpopular policies often lead to their removal from office: U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, for example, both took steps to limit troop involvement in Syria for this reason. True, sometimes elected leaders start or escalate wars that turn out poorly, as did President Lyndon B. Johnson in Vietnam and President George W. Bush in Iraq. But the eventual decline of these leaders’ political fortunes serves as an enduring recommendation for caution to their successors.

Sea King helicopters landing troops on deck during the Falklands War, 1982. MS Baltic Ferry in background.

(Getty)

As a result, elected leaders start ill-conceived wars less often than other leaders. Dictators do not have such reelection anxieties, and they are more confident that they can repress popular opposition in order to stay in office. They are thus more likely to start risky wars they might not win. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, for instance, was able to crush domestic opposition after his disastrous 1980 invasion of Iran and 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

Superior information flows also help democracies win wars.

Democratic leaders make better choices about wars because independent news media facilitate open debate, exposing bad ideas and promoting good ones. This environment of open debate also increases the likelihood that democratic leaders will inherit and choose qualified advisers and military officers—even sometimes rivals—who in turn provide better advice. Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, for example, prudently deferred attacking Pakistan in 1971 until she had a very promising (and ultimately successful) military plan and the weather was favorable.

And U.S. President George H. W. Bush held extensive debates among his advisers in 1990 planning for war against Iraq, which produced one of the most decisive victories in military history.

Dictators are more opposed to open discussion because they fear internal political threats. They are more likely to appoint and promote yes men, who are unmotivated to provide their leaders with the unvarnished truth and/or unqualified to provide insightful advice. The poorly conceived Soviet attack on Finland in 1939 is a perfect example of a pyrrhic victory, leaving more than 100,000 Soviet dead and only a few scraps of Finn-

29

15/05/20

Our political science research found that democracies are more likely than autocracies to win their wars. From 1816 to 1987, democracies won about 76 percent of their wars, while nondemocracies won about 46 percent of their wars. ish tundra to show for it. And although Americans bemoan the long war in Afghanistan, the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan turned out far worse for Moscow, with perhaps 15,000 dead and absolutely no gains.

WAR ON DISEASE The same characteristics that help democracies win wars can help them tackle challenges such as the pandemic. Democratic leaders who mishandle a pandemic can expect to be at greater risk of being tossed out of office and are thus more likely to take effective action.

Dictators are more likely to survive botched crisis responses and therefore do not face pressure to reform their strategies.

This can have a devastating effect during health crises. In the current outbreak, Iran has suffered an estimated 900,000 cases of the virus because the Iranian government has made such poor policy choices. But the government’s botched coronavirus response will not threaten the regime because Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has substantial tools at his disposal to repress threats to his power. Similarly, should the coronavirus crisis stimulate unrest in China, President Xi Jinping will tighten his control even further.

The strict controls dictatorships have over information flows have also impeded their response to the pandemic. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has censored information about the virus, even arresting or intimidating individuals who speak out about it: Russian police assaulted and arrested one doctor who posted videos describing authorities concealing the severity of the pandemic. China, the first country to confront COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, squelched information about the source and characteristics of the virus: the regime arrested doctors in Wuhan in late December for sounding the alarm, allowed a banquet of 40,000 families in Wuhan to occur

P

olitics

in early February, refused help from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, hampered distribution of data on how the virus spreads among those infected who show no symptoms, and underreported the number of cases by a factor of four.

Although the Chinese government reports success in combating the virus, doubts about China’s progress persist, given the country’s lack of transparency. These patterns are not new; China’s heavy clampdown on information substantially interfered with its efforts to battle the SARS outbreak in 2002–3.

Open information flows in democracies, by comparison, have helped fight the outbreak. Democracies such as the United States and Germany have created policy laboratories that have helped to explore innovative approaches. But more important, open societies have generated a flood of important information about the virus, advancing public understanding and helping policymakers and citizens develop and distribute protective measures.

And open channels of information have identified and exposed fake news, conspiracy theories, and quack cures, limiting their domination of public discourse on the coronavirus.

Unlike wars, however, information sharing during a pandemic is not limited to the individual liberal societies coming up with winning policy ideas. Rather, scientists, doctors, policymakers, and journalists around the globe have embraced the liberal norm of sharing ideas and information, creating an open and expansive community of knowledge. Chinese scientists substantially advanced progress toward testing, vaccine, and cure development after publishing the complete genome sequence of the coronavirus in January (although their Shanghai lab was subsequently shut down by Chinese government authorities). Meanwhile, hundreds if not thousands of other research labs around the world are racing to perfect tests, vaccines, and cures, rapidly publishing and sharing scientific papers. The health company Kinsa publishes data from its Web-linked home thermometers to forecast novel coronavirus clusters accurately and rapidly.

Democratic leaders make better choices about wars because independent news media facilitate open debate, exposing bad ideas and promoting good ones.

And Google helps distribute information on social distancing, possible new symptoms, and other important developments.

Several democracies have made substantial progress in avoiding or containing outbreaks, including South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Australia and New Zealand, Denmark, and Israel.

The United States’ response to the coronavirus, however, has seemingly challenged the notion that democracies are better at fighting pandemics. President Trump has come under severe criticism for his handling of the crisis, downplaying early warnings of potential death tolls and moving slowly to initiate widespread testing. Despite his early performance, however, Trump’s response to the virus illustrates how democracies excel in containing disease: recognizing that the outcomes of the November elections will turn on his handling of the pandemic, Trump has begun to take the crisis more seriously, imposing travel restrictions, supporting massive economic relief, and using the Defence Production Act to boost the manufacture of testing materials. Unlike dictators, who can squelch opposition, democratically elected leaders such as Trump are pressured to respond to criticism, which ultimately can yield more effective containment measures.

KILL THE VIRUS, NOT DEMOCRACY No one can predict with certainty the course of this pandemic.

But our research on democracy and war suggests that there are

30

15/05/20

A French border police officer stops a car at a checkpoint of Pont de l’Europe Kehl road to Strasbourg at the German-French border during the coronavirus crisis on May 2020 ,8 in Kehl, Germany. (Getty)

critical actions both policymakers and individuals should take to fight the virus. Voters should continue to hold their elected leaders’ feet to the fire to motivate them to fight the virus as effectively as possible and to respond flexibly to changing conditions. Democracies should nurture information flows inside and outside of government to spur open debate about the best path forward.

As in wartime, the looming challenge for democracies will be expanding the power of the state without undermining democracy itself. South Korea, for instance, stifled the coronavirus by collecting widespread personal information about patients and informing individuals who came into contact with victims. The U.S. government may need to direct mass production of critical goods such as ventilators and control prices to prevent gouging. This can be a difficult balance—witness, for example, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s power grab in Hungary or the Israeli government’s concerning expansion of data collection powers. But democracies have managed this balance before, winning wars without destroying freedom, and it can do the same in fighting the novel coronavirus. As in wars, democracy will be a source of strength in fighting the virus, not a source of weakness.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci (R) listens as U.S. Vice President Mike Pence (C) answers questions with members of the Coronavirus Task Force hold a press briefing at the White House March in Washington, 2020 ,6 DC. Earlier today the World Health Organization urged governments around the world to unleash their full power to combat the )spread of the virus. (Getty

31

15/05/20

P

olitics

What Does Washington Want From China?

Pique Is Not a Policy

by Christopher R. Hill

During one of the Balkan wars in the 1990s, a group of senior officials met in the White House Situation Room and listened to a proposal for bombing Serbia yet again in retribution for the

latest outrage by its dictator, Slobodan Milosevic. As the officials, almost all civilians, discussed the options, they turned to the U.S. military representative at the meeting for his view of the proposed new bombing campaign. He answered with a question: “And then what?�

32

15/05/20

In this file photo taken on June 2019 ,28, China’s President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hands with US President Donald Trump before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka.

(Getty)

Policy and strategy should be tethered to answering that question. That simple fact is especially true in great-power relations, when one country’s ability to affect internal change in the other is at best proscribed, and efforts to do so may backfire. Newtonian laws apply to foreign policy and national security matters as much as they do to the physical world: every action does indeed lead to an equal and opposite reaction.

Rarely does the receiver of the action simply turn the other cheek and carry on.

If the United States were instead to resume its role of leadership and keep a clear mind about China, it could help shape the global environment that the Chinese leadership must navigate.

There is no question that China grossly misbehaved in not being transparent with the rest of the world about what was happening in Wuhan.

But although China seemed to be covering up the outbreak during those chaotic days in December, it is also very possible that Chinese health and security agencies simply didn’t know what they were dealing with in Hubei Province as thousands of citizens descended on an overmatched health system. The question of who knew what and when they knew it will in time be answered, largely because that question is being asked the world over—especially by the shaken Chinese public, for whom the effects of this virus are very raw even as the government claims to be achieving victory over it.

response to every problem it encounters. In this case, China, with all its afflictions, is the obvious choice. The question, of course, is how China will react.

The novel coronavirus that appeared in late 2019 has caused carnage that will most likely be etched in the world’s collective memory for many decades. For some countries, the pandemic will bring enormous changes to social habits and mores; for others, it will bring political upheavals as citizens assess how capably their governments responded. The United States has suffered especially catastrophic losses—of lives to disease and of livelihoods shattered by a collapsing economy. These losses raise the question of whether the country’s political leadership, with its attitude of contempt for institutions and expertise, was even remotely up to the task. Clearly, the Chinese have followed these developments.

Not surprisingly, and not for the first time, the focus of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has been on finding someone to blame. That is the administration’s instinctive

33

15/05/20

In recent decades, China has not managed its international relationships well. The world rightly gave a rapidly developing China membership and appropriate status in a panoply of international financial and economic institutions, hoping—never a sufficient foundation for decisions of this kind—that China would become a responsible stakeholder in an international system that made it a beneficiary. But those hopes have been repeatedly dashed as China has, among other transgressions, pursued aggressive trade practices that include predatory pricing and extorting intellectual property, even as the world trading system has been, in the view of many, excessively patient in giving China the time and space to reform.

To some extent, China’s rise has suffered from poor timing. Its emergence coincided with increasing automation among its partners, and China, rather than technology, was blamed for the inevitable job losses. China could have surrounded its growth with an envelope of political and social sustainability, whether through improved factory working conditions, consumer advocacy, environmental protection, or general liberalization measures, but it did no such thing.

Even its anticorruption drive, once popular with a frustrated domestic audience, began to seem corrupt when politicians went after one another within the gridiron of the communist system.

These shortcomings have tarnished the luster of

P

olitics

China’s model, despite the country’s extraordinary gains in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

The Chinese have a well-deserved reputation for thinking ahead, and what they see ahead is a world increasingly skeptical of China: one that, for starters, wants to shorten its supply lines, so as not to have to place overseas orders for such desperately needed goods as personal protection equipment (PPE). The growing ranks of severe critics of China—including those within the White House—have talked about “decoupling” from the Chinese economy as a solution to the economic woes of the United States, as if the cure for economic transition is to cut back trade with one of the world’s most formidable manufacturing centers. Now, that dream has a chance to become at least a partial reality, as the pandemic has greatly expanded the scope of strategic needs and weakened the arguments for free trade.

China is aware of such sentiments, which are widespread among its trading partners, and of the fact that the pandemic is bringing them closer to realization. If China cannot achieve status as a responsible stakeholder in the international system, perhaps, its leadership may be thinking, it can at least repair and retain its role as a responsible manufacturing partner and mitigate the global

But although China seemed to be covering up the outbreak during those chaotic days in December, it is also very possible that Chinese health and security agencies simply didn’t know what they were dealing with in Hubei Province as thousands of citizens descended on an overmatched health system.

desire to make products closer to home. Within weeks of the pandemic’s spread, the country began to send its PPE products to the four corners of the world, as if to demonstrate that it is a reliable supplier of manufactured goods.

But even China’s efforts to reassert its role as a dependable manufacturer may be too little and too late. The world, not to speak of the flailing Trump administration, is in no mood to give China the benefit of the doubt. China’s effort to supply PPE to countries in desperate need of such equipment was greeted with suspicion in some quarters as a new effort to gain preeminence and broaden China’s malign and nefarious influence in the world.

That offers to supply hospital equipment should be subject to such scepticism is a testament to the weakening of the international order that the Trump administration’s inconsistent and retrenching foreign policy has wrought. Fear and

34

15/05/20

A security guard checks the body temperature of a woman in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on May ,11 2020. (Getty)

To some extent, China’s rise has suffered from poor timing. Its emergence coincided with increasing automation among its partners, and China, rather than technology, was blamed for the inevitable job losses. environment that the Chinese leadership must navigate.

What China looks like in the future will be up to the Chinese. They will determine what role they believe is sustainable for themselves in the world. The United States, however, must contemplate a policy toward China that is practical and sustainable in its own right. Does the United States really seek lasting enmity with China? Is that in the American interest? Anyone who has visited the Great Wall might ask, do we really want to get into a fight with a people who built a thing like that? loathing of China is no substitute for self-confidence and unity of purpose in dealing with it.

U.S. foreign policy under Trump and his dyspeptic secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, aims less to broaden coalitions and forge effective policy than simply to marshal fear by ascribing malicious motives to a country that is more likely trying to protect what it has. The administration has made little effort to chart a way forward with a China that will neither disappear nor give in to diktats from the United States.

American actions of late have a ring of righteousness, and certainly of rightful indignation.

But where is this posture leading? What does Washington hope to gain from it? The United States’ often clumsy management of bilateral relations in East Asia (the Korean Peninsula comes to mind) suggests that its policy is designed to confer on China the status of a regional hegemon even while simultaneously trying to weaken it and reduce the scope of its global influence. This approach is inconsistent and the same will likely The United States once built an international or- be true of its results. der that all but assured its own primacy. Yet of late, it has changed jobs from that of chief archi- Pique is no substitute for policy. For all that tect and builder to chief arsonist. The new U.S. China has to consider in the months ahead, pernarrative is one of victimization—at the hands haps it is the United States that needs to calm of everybody, but especially the Chinese—and down and ask itself what it wants next and how Washington seems to want to burn the whole to get it. edifice down. If the United States were instead to resume its role of leadership and keep a clear This article was originally published on ForeignAfmind about China, it could help shape the global fairs.com.

35

15/05/20

o

pinion

Germany and Hezbollah

by: Elie Fawaz

Former US ambassador to Germany and current Director of National Intelligence, Richard Grenell, has been working closely with German authorities these past few years to counter Hezbollah’s network in Germany. His efforts paid off as Berlin soon added the organisation’s military and political wings into its list of designated terror groups. This development cannot be understated as the Secretary General of Hezbollah recently made a live appearance where he denied any group activity in Europe. In his speech, Nasrallah made a reference to the institutions that were raided by German authorities earlier this month, as several individuals linked with the group were arrested throughout the country. Naturally, the Secretary-General denied any links between Hezbollah and these institutions, but the leader’s lies and denials are futile now. This is because German law enforcement, unlike its counterpart in Lebanon, is not a corrupt institution, this means that Hezbollah cannot bribe, blackmail or force German authorities to fabricate or redact case files that highlight its illicit activities. Furthermore, Germany has always had a history of cautious diplomacy meaning that it strays away from policies of cutting off communications with states or institutions that it disagrees with. This is the reason why for the longest time it tolerated Hezbollah’s political wing, and only considered its military wing a terrorist group. As such, Berlin’s recent decision to ban the group in its entirety means that it has gathered conclusive evidence that shows the group and its affiliates of undertaking a number of activities, which undermine German law.

Hezbollah claims that Germany’s decision has to do with the group’s position on the Palestinian issue, but such claims are fallacious to say the least, since it implies that the German government has never stood on the side of the Palestinians. For instance, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has been one of the most passionate politicians who stood for the Palestinians, and in many cases he has been more ardent on the Palestinian issue than even Hezbollah itself. Furthermore, the German Foreign Minister has been vocal about his opposition of the US’s “confrontational” policies towards Iran, and he has supported the facilitation of trading channels with Iran, in a manner that does not violate US sanctions, of course.

Many terrorist groups have found a safe haven in Germany since its authorities fear accusations claiming that they are targeting a group because it attracts members who are not of German heritage, or ethnicity. One mustn’t forget that the atrocities, which Jews faced at the hands of the Nazis during the Holocaust, are still entrenched in German collective memory. However, these relaxed laws have come at a cost, case in point the formation of the Hamburg Al Qaeda Cell, which a young Lebanese student by the name of Ziad Jarrah was a member of. Eventually Jarrah became one of the hijackers that caused the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York.

It is no surprise that Hezbollah has a presence in Germany considering the fact that the country’s laws gave it relative freedom to operate. Moreover, residing in an Schengen country like Germany gives groups like Hezbollah the opportunity to move throughout the rest of Europe.

Germany’s decision to place Hezbollah on the terror list will undoubtedly have financial implications for Hezbollah. These German-based, Hezbollah-linked institutions served the group both in terms of security and finance.

In addition to their banking facilities, these institutions were exempted from paying taxes. This was because German law exempts religious organisations from paying taxes, and these institutions were guised as such. This development will, of course, hinder many of Hezbollah and Iran’s actions and the raided institutions will surely be added to the sanctions list.

Today, US pressure is shifting towards France in hopes that it, and other European countries, will follow Germany’s suit and add Hezbollah to their lists of designated terror groups. Such actions would deny Hezbollah, its institutions and businessmen access to the European banking system. Undoubtedly that would be a huge blow to Hezbollah and the Iranian regime.

What is happening with Hezbollah is somewhat reminiscent of the fate of Pablo Escobar, the leader of the World Medell Indión. The group had a massive monopoly over the world’s cocaine production, as it possessed 80 per cent of the global cocaine production. Additionally, the group had massive stakes in the illicit US drug market (75 per cent) and that, of course, became the primary reason for its demise. Escobar attempted to improve his public image as he took part in politics and charity work, however his success in illicit activities could not be ignored and he was eventually executed. One could say he was a victim of his success.

If Hezbollah and Iran continue to confront the US, pursue expansionist projects and attempt regional destabilisation, then they must prepare for a colossal retaliation, the likes of which they have never seen before.

36

15/05/20

A Weekly Political News Magazine

2

Issue 1800- May - 15/05/2020

Kim Yo-jong: North Korea›s Most Powerful Woman and Dictator in Waiting www.majalla.com

C

ulture

How Indigenous Zombie Horror Film ‘Blood Quantum’ Became Prescient in the Pandemic

How a Horror Film Took New Meaning Amid Coronavirus 40

15/05/20

by Jen Yamato Jeff Barnaby never thought he’d be releasing his zombie outbreak movie “Blood Quantum” during an actual global pandemic, or that the real-life parallels within a film bursting with blood, guts, a samurai-sword-wielding grandpa and severed body parts would make his groundbreaking horror tale all the more eerily resonant.

“Now that we’re in the middle of this virus it’s brought a lot of the ideas in the film into relief and stark contrast,” said Barnaby, Skyping from his home in Quebec. His second feature, now streaming on Shudder, imagines a world in which those with indigenous blood are immune to a vicious zombie apocalypse.

Set in 1981 and shot in Canada on Mohawk and Mi’gmaq land, “Blood Quantum” unfolds on the fictional Red Crow Reserve where Traylor (Michael Greyeyes), a troubled-but-trying local sheriff, struggles to lead his community as outsiders seek refuge from the rising undead.

The title puts a biting twist on the controversial U.S. government policy of measuring indigenous identity based on percentage of ancestry. But with the coronavirus now tearing across the world — heightening anxieties, escalating xenophobia, underscoring systemic inequities and disproportionately devastating the Navajo Nation — the unexpected refractions of our current reality are making Barnaby’s head spin.

Director of ‹Blood Quantum,› Jeff Barnaby.

(Johnny Wong/ Elevation Pictures/TNS)

“The weird thing about being native and making a comment on viruses in particular is the history of the pandemics and the colonization of America,” said Barnaby. “Once you put a native person in a zombie film, you immediately start thinking that it’s a virus. It’s one of the benefits of being a native film director: You have so much history to riff on. It exists in history and in our society and in the history of our cinema and literature.”

He paused, lingering on the thought. “It’s so much to unpack.

It’s a lot to take on, being a native filmmaker, man.”

Barnaby set his 2013 debut drama “Rhymes For Young Ghouls” against the backdrop of Canada’s residential schools, institutions of assimilation for which the government has since apologized. Influenced by writers like Stephen King and Clive Barker, in his short films and features he’s leaned into sci-fi and horror genres, blending his pulpy directorial flair with a lens on history that’s long been absent from stories involving indigenous people.

Playing in fictitious alternate realities creates some distance from the presumption that he’s speaking for the indigenous community. At least, he thought it did. When “Blood Quantum” premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival, the metaphors helped its raucous horror thrills land with the weight

41

15/05/20

Jeff Barnaby never thought he’d be releasing his zombie outbreak movie “Blood Quantum” during an actual global pandemic. of history. Now, it’s hard to keep current events from creeping in while watching Barnaby’s accidentally prescient tale.

“What I’ve always tried to do is infuse my work with the idea that you’re looking at fiction. At no one point are you going to be able to say these native people exist, because the world they exist in isn’t real. There’s no such thing as zombies. There’s no apocalypse,” said Barnaby. “Of course, saying that now seems kind of trite.”

With a wicked sense of humor and sharp sociopolitical undertones, “Blood Quantum” features a cast of First Nations and Native American actors led by Greyeyes (“True Detective,” “Fear the Walking Dead”), Elle-Maija Tailfeathers (“The Body Remembers When The World Broke Open”), Forrest Goodluck (“The Revenant,” “The Miseducation of Cameron Post”) and Kiowa Gordon (“The Twilight Saga,” “Roswell, New Mexico”).

Ravenous hordes descend, chainsaws swing, heads are liberated from their reanimated corpses and Barnaby winks gleefully more than once at Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction.” In one scene, Waylon Jennings roars on the -8track as a hero goes head-to-head with flesh-eating zombies; in another, a character receives a painful surprise during oral sex when his infected partner turns at an inopportune moment (a commentary on postcolonial misogyny and toxic masculinity, the filmmaker says amusedly).

As the apocalypse unfolds, old wounds fester and conflicting views on self-preservation put the group’s survival into jeopardy. Half-brothers Lysol (Gordon) and Joseph (Goodluck) bond over their strained relationships with their dad, Traylor; Joseph, who has a baby on the way with his white girlfriend, Charlie (Olivia Scriven), wrestles with fearful unknowns; his mother Joss (Tailfeather), Traylor’s ex and a trained nurse, quietly springs into action when the reservation seals itself from the outside world, then comes under siege.

Veteran actor Greyeyes, whose stage and screen career has often explored indigenous experiences but rarely with an indigenous filmmaker at the helm, loved the premise from the start.

“It’s not just a film, it’s a political action to flip the switch and go, ‘The land that we deemed worthless, the rez that we stuck

C

ulture

you on? That is now the safest place in the world. Whereas we pushed you away from the heart of our communities, now we’re seeking entrance into yours,’” he said. “This idea that colonial history has been reenacted subversively is a message that even the most nonpolitical, non-socially informed person will understand right away.”

“Blood Quantum” blends the zombie movie DNA of George A. Romero’s “Night of the Living Dead” with the sociopolitical lineage of the 1984 Alanis Obomsawin documentary “Incident at Restigouche,” which chronicled raids by Quebec police upon the Listuguj Mi’gmaq First Nation over salmon fishing rights in 1981, the year “Blood Quantum” takes place.

In an opening nod to Obomsawin’s film and the community’s history, a gutted pile of fish are the first to rise from the dead.

Traylor’s WWII vet father Gisigu (Stonehorse Lone Goeman, a sword-wielding standout making his acting debut) eyes his haul with disbelief as they flop back to life, then steely resignation sets in. Zombies? Fine. He’s seen and survived plenty before, the movie suggests. What’s an undead outbreak to someone who’s made it through so much already?

Barnaby grew up in Listuguj at the time of the raids and always envisioned his hometown as the setting of “Blood Quantum.” Before making the film in Listuguj and on the Kahnawake reserve near Montreal, he asked his actors to watch “Restigouche” so they’d understand the community’s history and its hard-won traditions. For many of the cast members, “Blood Quantum” marks a leap forward in screen representation.

Devery Jacobs made her starring debut as the teen heroine of

When “Blood Quantum” premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival, the metaphors helped its raucous horror thrills land with the weight of history. Now, it’s hard to keep current events from creeping in while watching Barnaby’s accidentally prescient tale.

Barnaby’s “Rhymes for Young Ghouls,” also set in the fictional Red Crow community and filmed on the Kahnawake reserve where she grew up. In “Blood Quantum” she plays James, a hardened version of the woman her headstrong “Rhymes” character might have become “if she had turned to the dark side.”

“I wouldn’t have a career today if it wasn’t for Jeff and for that project,” said Jacobs, whose recent credits include Netflix series “The Order” and Starz’s “American Gods.” “‘Rhymes’ was my first leading role and also the first role I could really sink my teeth into, and the first project that really reflected my experience and that of my family’s.”

It wasn’t easy getting “Blood Quantum,” a rare film to feature the Mi’gmaq language and characters, to the screen. Working with his “Rhymes” cinematographer Michel St-Martin, Barnaby served as writer, director, editor and composer. There were tough days filming on location in the elements; limited resources; over-the-top stunts.

On top of the typical indie film constraints, Goodluck felt the added pressure of having to film a heavy emotional moment during a zombie outbreak while standing in a small boat against a thicket of fog with a team of FX pros circling, faux blood at the ready. “They were trying to create this crazy Kurosawa-type

42

15/05/20

Teaser poster art for ‹Blood Quantum.› (Elevation Pictures/ TNS)

A scene from ‹Blood Quantum.› (Jan Thijs/ Elevation Pictures/ TNS)

atmosphere,” said Goodluck. “It was scary because I was like, if I don’t get this during this take, I know we’re not going to get another one!”

Production even went on hiatus for several months while the weather changed and Barnaby banged on doors to secure funds to finish the film. But at least he found receptive backers.

When he’d first pitched the project in 2007, he said, no one would bite.

“It was a different time. Nobody was ready for a story like this,” he said. “Nobody was ready to hear that the great capitalist dream was falling apart and colonialism was going to help usher us into destruction. So it was the culture that took catching up to the script. Nothing changed, just the cultural perception of it.”

The timing feels apt to Goodluck and Gordon, whose characters represent challenges facing youth stepping into a world not of their making. “It’s especially relevant today with every aspect of global destruction that young people are inheriting, from not just the native communities but everywhere older generations have messed up the planet, possibly to the point of nonreversal,” said Goodluck.

His character manages to hold on to hope. Gordon’s Lysol,

43

15/05/20

on the other hand, bears the scars of his fractured upbringing.

“He doesn’t know how to reconcile,” said Gordon. “The only way he knows how is through violence, what he grew up with.”

Gordon, who is of Hualapai descent and was raised partly on his tribe’s reservation in Arizona, found that the film’s themes, and its provocative title, resonated with elements of his own ongoing journey.

“It’s been a struggle my entire life, being who I am and trying to find out who I am,” he said. “I’m on the cusp of even being in my tribe because of the blood quantum.

My daughter isn’t registered into my tribe because of that, because she only has a particular quantum in her. How does somebody else get to define who we are? It messes you up in the head.”

“In this industry, ever since natives were in cinema, it’s always been somebody else’s voice, and somebody else’s face, and somebody else’s makeup on them. Now we can actually take that back, and this film is iconic for that,” he said. “(‘Blood Quantum’) is ushering in a new age for the next generation to say, ‘OK, let’s go out there and take our lives back.’ I feel empowered through this.”

H

ealth

Give Yourself a Lift A Simple Exercise Called the Deadlift Helps Make Everyday Actions Easier and Safer

by Harvard Men’s Health Watch Research shows that weight lifting is good medicine for healthy older adults. While there are many weight-lifting exercises, one move you should always include with your workouts is the deadlift.

The deadlift is a simple-looking movement. From a squatting

position, you grab a weighted barbell and then stand while you lift the bar with straight arms. The barbell rises to about mid-thigh level. You hold for a second and return to the starting position.

It’s a short, quick movement, but much happens during that time, says Shawn Pedicini, a physical therapist with Harvardaffiliated Spaulding Rehabilitation Network. “Deadlifts give

44

15/05/20

The deadlift is a simple-looking movement. From a squatting position, you grab a weighted barbell and then stand while you lift the bar with straight arms. The barbell rises to about mid-thigh level. You hold for a second and return to the starting position. and core, particularly the gluteal muscles in the buttocks.

“These muscles help you to pick up things, lift and carry items, and protect your body from strains and injury,” says Pedicini.

Worried about poor posture? Deadlifts strengthen a weak lower back that can cause stooped shoulders. They also can improve grip strength, and some research has suggested that performing compound movements like deadlifts may increase bone density.

Enlist a personal trainer or fitness coach to show you how to perform a deadlift properly. “If you don’t do it correctly, there is a risk that you could put too much stress on your lower back,” says Pedicini.

If you don’t have access to a barbell, holding a dumbbell or a kettlebell in each hand also works. Another option, if available, is a trap bar, also known as a hex bar. The trap bar is shaped like hexagon or diamond. You stand in the middle and lift the bar using two handles that are placed shoulder-width apart. “The design distributes the weight more equally and takes further stress off the lower back,” says Pedicini.

You don’t need to do many deadlifts to feel the results. A typical approach is three sets of five to eight reps with a break in between, says Pedicini. “A higher number of reps can cause your form to break down and lead you to round your back.”

you a lot of bang for your buck.”

MULTIPLE MUSCLES This highly functional exercise carries over to many everyday movements. For instance, deadlifts can increase lower-body strength and power, which improves mobility, balance, and stability. Deadlifts are also great for working your hamstrings

45

15/05/20

However, a personal trainer or physical therapist can advise you on the ideal number of sets and reps based on your fitness level. A beginning safe weight would be 40% to 50% of your body weight. Then gradually increase the amount if you can complete a full set of eight repetitions with proper form.

H

ealth

CHECK YOUR MOBILITY You need some mobility in your hips and ankles to do deadlifts correctly. Otherwise, you risk putting undue stress on your lower back. A quick test is to see how close you can come to touching your toes with straight legs. If you have trouble, then it would be wise to first work on flexibility of your back muscles before attempting deadlifts. Also, check with your doctor if you have any health problems for which you need to avoid excessive straining.

THREE PHASES OF LIFTING The deadlift consists of three phases: the starting position,

You need some mobility in your hips and ankles to do deadlifts correctly. Otherwise, you risk putting undue stress on your lower back.

upward movement, and downward movement.

Starting position. Begin with the barbell on the floor.

Stand with your feet slightly wider than shoulder-width apart, with your toes under the bar. Squat down, keeping your chest up to help maintain a neutral spine position.

Make sure you don’t round your back and that you squat and not just bending over. Grasp the bar with an overhand grip, with your arms just outside your thighs. Pull your shoulders down and back, so your chest sticks out. Brace your core to help stabilize and protect your spine during the movement.

Upward movement. With your core engaged, push through your heels to begin the lift. Engage your back and abdominal muscles, and keep your shoulders pulled back to avoid rounding the shoulders. Stand and pull the bar up with straight arms, keeping the bar close to your body as it moves upward.

The bar should rise to about mid-thigh level and should always stay in contact with your legs and not lift away.

Downward movement. Hold the lift briefly, then slowly lower the bar toward the ground while maintaining a straight back. Bend your knees so the bar and your hips lower at the same speed. Finish with the bar on the floor, so the weight comes to a dead stop. You should end in the original starting position. This completes one rep. You can immediately go into another rep, or reset your position from the beginning.

46

15/05/20

47

15/05/20

Po

rt

ra

it

Kim Yo-jong: North Korea›s Most Powerful Woman and Dictator in Waiting Majalla – London Born in September 1987, Kim Yo-jong is the youngest daughter of late leader Kim Jong-il and is thought to be the most important figure in the tyrannical regime after Kim Jong-un.

She is the only one of his siblings considered a close, trusted and powerful ally and is seen by his side almost constantly during his meetings with world leaders Kim shares the same mother as Kim Jongun and Kim Jong-chol, the brother who is thought to be not very senior in the political power system. She spent her early years at her mother›s Ch’angkwang Hill residence in central Pyongyang with her two older brothers.

Between 1996 and 2000, Kim studied in Switzerland. She began attending Liebefeld Hessgut public school and later was joined by Kim Jong-un at Liebefeld-Steinhölzli public school, the two enrolled under pseudonyms.

School officials in Switzerland have said she was over-protected by the coterie of guards and caretakers - she once reportedly had a mild cold and was immediately pulled from school and taken to hospital. Although they lived with an aunt and uncle, the time abroad was said to be an isolating experience and the siblings depended on each other for company and support. It is believed she went on to further her education at the Kim Ilsung Military University and then computer science at the Kim Il-sung university.

Appointed a junior cadre to the WKP in

2007, Kim Yo-jong reportedly was involved in succession plans after Kim Jong-il suffered a pair of strokes the following year and took on an increasing role as her father›s secretariat until his death in December 2011.

She was very rarely seen in public until 2010, but became prominent in the lead up to her father›s death.

Under her brother›s rule, Kim became acting director of the National Defense Commission before earning her appointment as First Deputy Director of the Workers Party›s Propaganda and Agitation Department in late 2014 - a role she is thought to still hold and where she works on her brother›s public image in the country. For her leadership role in the Propaganda and Agitation Department, Kim was among the seven North Koreans sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in early 2017 for «serious human rights abuses and censorship activities.» That means US citizens are prohibited from conducting any transactions with her. Any property and assets in the US would be frozen. She was made a member of the politburo, the party›s most senior ruling committee, in 2017, giving her even greater power including over state security, and was voted to the Supreme People›s Assembly as a representative for the Killimgil district in the 2019 parliamentary election.

Kim Yo-jong first gained international attention in 2018, when she was the first member of the North Korean ruling family

48

15/05/20

to visit the southern country since the end of the Korean War in 1953. She was part of the delegation to the Winter Olympics, where North and South competed as a joint team. The 2018 thaw which followed saw her working alongside her brother as he set off on an international diplomacy path, meeting South Korean President Moon Jaein, China›s Xi Jinping and most importantly accompanying her brother to his historic, high-profile denuclearisation talks with President Trump, the first held in Singapore in June 2018 and the second in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019. After Donald Trump scrapped denuclearisation talks, Kim Jongun reportedly blamed his sister for the failure and demoted her in 2019, before reinstating to the party’s powerful politburo.

Not much is known about her personal life, but in early 2015, it was reported that Kim Yo-jong had married the son of Choe Ryong, the powerful party secretary and Kim Jongun›s second in command. She was reported to be pregnant in spring 2015, and again around the time of the 2018 Winter Olympics.

The close relationship with her brother and her increasingly senior roles in the political apparatus put her once again in focus in April 2020 during a period when Kim Jongun seemed unusually long absent from any public events. Speculation that he was unwell or even dead put her among the top ranks to take on his mantle, though the country has never had a female leader.

o

pinion

Lebanese Zajal

by: Elie Fawaz

The current political process in Lebanon bears similarities with Lebanese “zajal” festivals, which used to be shown (and perhaps they are still getting airtime) on Lebanese national television. During “zajals”, four poets would be seated on a large table adorning the finest of Lebanese cuisine and glasses of arak (Lebanon’s national drink). Meanwhile, audiences at their households would wait in anticipation to hear the melodious prose from the four men. These shows were frequent in Lebanese villages and would garner mass audiences during the summer when many expats would visit their home country and watch these shows to get back in touch with their roots and heritage. Poets are divided into two groups each focusing on topics of either humanitarian or national interests. But what really got the audiences going was when the “zajal” poets transitioned to the comedic part of the act, where they switched to informal Lebanese and satirized each other. At the end of the festival, audiences would go home entertained, while the poets would start preparing for their next shows.

On a similar note, whenever Lebanese politicians come up with an “idea” or “policy” they gather their advisors and media affiliates to help them spread word of such novel proposals. However, such allies are nothing but sophists who use complex Arabic language to disguise these hollow ideas as coherent strategies. Moreover, the political leaders’ supporters will clap and cheer on these proposals in chambers and in parliament, thus making the entire political process into a loud charade of nothingness. These political “zajals” have audiences of their own, most of which congregate on social media. Some audience members zealously show support to their leaders, some oppose the proposals and all of them participate in this hapless parody of political debate.

Most social media users mindlessly support their leaders. What’s sad is the fact that the more complex sophistry these leaders use, the more impassioned their supporters become.

Naturally, such “zajals” do not help increase the value of the Lebanese pound, nor do anything for dwindling salaries. These displays also don’t improve living standards nor do they increase the buying power for the common Lebanese citizen. While these “zajals” are happening, the Lebanese economy is falling at an alarming rate, and it seems that neither the politicians, nor the financial institution nor the central bank can do anything to bring the economy under control. The problems that these “zajals” attempt to solve are eventually abandoned, as politicians are more concerned with staying in power.

Let’s take, for example, the electricity crisis. For the past ten years, the Free Patriotic Movement has been in charge of resolving the crisis, but all it has done is rotate team members each time promising that the new team has a plan to bring the problem to an end. Rather than finding a sustainable solution, that party has prolonged the crisis, which has now placed a 40 billion dollar deficit on the state treasury. This “zajal” process is not a new political procedure within the Lebanese political sector, in fact, it has been present ever since the assassination of Rafic El Harriri, but as the years went by the frequency of these “zajals” increased.

Another example of a scandalous “zajal” happened when Samir Geagea attended a meeting of parliamentary blocs that supported the government’s economic bloc. This meeting confused both Geagea’s supporters and opponents; the former thought that he attended as a rebel against the plan, while the latter found the event strange since attending such a meeting came at odds with his previous political stances. As such, a public “zajal” happened as people started debating what Geagea attempted to gain from this meeting. In reality, Geagea’s visit did nothing to alleviate the situation in Lebanon and the only thing his presence accomplished was a mass media frenzy that members of the public took part in. Furthermore, Geagea’s visit to President Aoun at Baabda resulted in the same circus act, as his supporters cheered him on and applauded him, while his opponents jeered and verbally attacked him. The episode also exposed the laughable job journalists allied with leaders do, as most of them need only satisfy one task: make the leader look good.

This charade is also evident in the job sector, as political factions secure jobless wages to their supporters. As a result, there are now 400,000 government workers who earn a living for doing nothing, while 50,000 actual government employees do not receive their wages. In spite of all this showmanship, many Lebanese citizens take part in this never-ending farce, as they participate in vacant political discourse.

While all this is happening, the people are starving, the national currency is collapsing, food prices are going up and banks are preparing for bankruptcy. Furthermore, Hezbollah is militarily, economically and politically taking over Lebanon. What’s funny is that the only thing political factions are fighting for is the position of power that the Maronite faction posses at the behest of Hezbollah, a terrorist organization that holds the real power in government. Sunni leaders want a piece of this pie, but to get their share they need to hold daily meetings with the group that assassinated Rafic El Harri, i.e. one of their previous leaders. Alas Lebanon is now in the tight grips of the “mafia-cracy”, which cares not for the wellbeing of the people.

The US has taken the decision to starve the Lebanese until they rebel against Hezbollah. The political class in Lebanon have also taken its own decision; strive for political power even if that means you’ll rule nothing but a scrapheap that was once Lebanon.

Hezbollah also decided a long time ago that it would keep on fighting even if it had to kill every last Lebanese citizen. Surrounded with all these ferocious threats, Lebanon has now become shadow of its former self.

50

15/05/20