The Water Wars Defining Middle East Future

Hezbollah Confirms Iran’s Hegemony

When Biden Meets Putin

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The Water Wars Defining Middle East Future www.majal a.com

Editorial

A Weekly Political News Magazine

www.majalla.com/eng Egypt and Sudan agreed on Wednesday to coordinate efforts so as to push Ethiopia to negotiate «seriously» on a deal regarding filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that it is building on the Blue Nile, after African Union-sponsored talks remained deadlocked. Although the growing conflict over the Blue Nile River between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt seems to focus on hydro-energy reasons and Ethiopia’s insistence on its rights secure its electricity needs, it is a “bitter fight” example how hydro-political agenda can shape conflict, as it is argued that the Ethiopian political elite is using the conflict to achieve their political goals.

In this week’s cover story, Dalia Ziada examines two categories of water–related conflicts in the Middle East and North African region. She discusses the determining factor these boiling situations have recently become in shaping geopolitical coalitions and military strategies in the region. In addition to the most important dispute over the Blue Nile, there is also the Turkish-Kurdish conflict over Euphrates-Tigris in North Syria, and the battle over maritime zones demarcation in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.

In this week’s article, Hanin Ghaddar writes about explicit remarks by Hezbollah’s leader that confirms Iranian grip over Lebanon. Nasrallah’s rejection to “early elections, resignations of Hariri and other ministers and MPs, and to the central bank stopping of subsidies” came as his party continued to make full use of Lebanese resources and institutions to serve its ends aligned with Iran. The group, which has never shown interest in developing the country’s institutions nor in addressing the Lebanese people’s economic predicaments, is shown to be evidently benefitting from the collapse of the country with an agenda to use the upheaval to maximize its gains and introduce a new system change.

Read these articles and more on our website eng.majalla. com. As always, we welcome and value our readers’ feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

20 Khartoum’s GERD Fears and Hopes

Issue 1856- June- 11/06/2021

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Japan’s Pre-Olympics Vaccine Push Looks Too Late

42 Arab Media Getting New Shape

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How Turkey Gains from Economic Takeover of Syrian Regions

56 Body-weight Exercises

at Home

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Self-pity and Shame in “ 5

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“From the Memory of Land and River”

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Rome gets ready to host Euro 2020 A woman wearing a protective mask walks past the logo of UEFA Euro 2020 at the fan zone at Piazza del Popolo in Rome, Italy, June 7, 2021., Italy )Reuters Photos(

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A Year in Art: Australia 1992 Members of staff look at ‹The Founding of Australia› by Algernon Talmage at ‹A Year in Art: Australia 1992› photocall at the Tate Modern in London, Britain, 07 June 2021. ‹A Year in Art: Australia 1992› is a free exhibition of over 25 works by Australian artists )EPA Photos(

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A WEEK IN THE MIDDLE EAST EGYPT Egypt received 500,000 doses of China's Sinovac coronavirus vaccine on Monday, airport sources said, as the health ministry announced that local production of the Chinese vaccine will start in mid-June.

Egypt received raw materials for the production of two million Sinovac doses in May, after signing an agreement to produce the vaccine locally and distribute it in Egypt and other African countries.

The first vials are due to be produced on June 15 and up to six weeks will be needed for checks before they are put to use in vaccination centers, Health Minister Hala Zayed told the MBC Masr TV channel late on Sunday.

Egypt expects raw materials for a further 4.2 million Sinovac doses this month, Zayed said, and aims to produce 40 million doses this year, Reuters reported.

Cairo also expects to sign an agreement soon with an international company to produce a European vaccine in Egypt, Zayed said with no further details. The cabinet said previously that Egypt is seeking to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine locally.

SAUDI ARABIA Saudi Arabian agriculture technology startup Red Sea Farms on Monday said it had raised $10 million which it would use to develop commercial scale farming facilities and expand into neighboring United Arab Emirates.

Red Sea Farms, established in 2018, grows tomatoes in an environment-controlled, enclosed farm that primarily uses saltwater to cool greenhouses and irrigate crops. Fresh water is sparsely available in the predominantly desert Gulf region where arable land is also scarce.

Red Sea Farms aims to have between four to eight farming sites across six hectares in central and western Saudi Arabia and in Abu Dhabi, the UAE's largest emirate, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Ryan Lefers told Reuters.

LEBANON

LIBYA

France’s President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday he was working with international partners to create a financial mechanism to ensure continuing important public services in Lebanon which has been suffering deep political and economic crisis, Reuters reported.

Lebanon has been struggling to find enough foreign currency to pay for fuel and other basic imports, its finances crushed by a mountain of debt that has piled up since the country's 1975-1990 civil war.

Macron has been trying to hike pressure on Lebanon's squabbling politicians to break months of deadlock on forming a new government and launch reforms to unlock foreign cash.

"We are technically working with several partners in the international community so that at some point, (...) if the absence of government persisted, we could succeed in preserving a system under international constraint, which would then allow the funding of essential activities and support for the Lebanese people," Macron told a news conference.

At least two people including a senior police officer were killed in a blast that struck a checkpoint in the southern Libyan city of Sebha on Sunday, local police and medics said.

A security source in Sebha said the blast was caused by a suicide bomber who detonated a car bomb.

Islamic State claimed late Sunday responsibility for the assault, saying one of its militants stormed the checkpoint using an explosive-laden car, Reuters said.

Sebha is about 130 kilometres (80 miles) from Taraghin where the Islamic State carried out a bomb attack last year that caused no casualties.

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KUWAIT The first meeting of the Kuwaiti-Saudi Coordination Council was hosted by Saudi Arabia on Sunday where Kuwaiti Foreign Minister and Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Sheikh Dr. Ahmad Nasser Al-Mohammad Al-Sabah headed Kuwait’s delegation, Kuwait News Agency reported. The Saudi delegation was led by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan.

The Council aims at enhancing the relations between the two countries, boosting the GCC integrated economic system, finding solutions for optimum use of national resources, consolidating integration among the member states in all spheres, ensuring effective execution for the cooperation and partnership, and promoting the two states' status in the economic, human resources development, integration at the security and political levels and others.

MOROCCO Morocco's foreign minister on Wednesday accused Spain of trying to turn a political crisis between the two countries into an EU issue by focusing on migration and ignoring the root causes, according to Reuters.

The row blew up in April after Spain admitted the leader of the Western Sahara independence movement, Brahim Ghali, for medical treatment without informing Rabat, which regards the disputed territory as its own.

Morocco then appeared to relax border controls with Spain's North African enclave of Ceuta on May 17, leading to an influx of at least 8,000 migrants.

QATAR Qatar Airways said on Tuesday the surface below the paint on some of its Airbus (AIR.PA) A350s was deteriorating faster than expected and insisted it would not take more deliveries of the carbon-composite wide body jet until the problem was resolved.

The Gulf carrier has fallen out with the European plane maker, warning last week that Airbus faced "industrial repercussions" if it failed to resolve the dispute, while until now giving few details of the discussions.

"Qatar Airways continues to experience and has witnessed a condition in which the surface below the paint on some of its Airbus A350 aircraft has been degrading at an accelerated rate," an airline spokesperson said in response to a Reuters query.

IRAN Iran is planning a speedy increase in its oil output, a senior oil ministry official said on Wednesday, as talks continue between Tehran and six major powers to lift U.S. sanctions that have seen it pumping far below capacity since 2018, Reuters reported.

Iran and the six powers have been in talks since April to revive a 2015 nuclear deal that former U.S. President Donald Trump exited three years ago, re-imposing sanctions that have hit Iran’s economy hard by sharply cutting its vital oil exports.

"If sanctions are lifted, most of the country's crude production will be restored within a month," Farokh Alikhani, production manager of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), told the oil ministry's SHANA website.

"Careful planning has been done to restore oil output to pre-sanctions levels in intervals of one week, one month and three months."

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A WEEK ACROSS THE WORLD

The United States on Thursday declared sanctions on what network that generates tens millions of dollars for Yemen's movement to accept a ceasefire and peace talks, Reuters rep U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has sought to adva humanitarian crisis and end the war pitting the Houthis agai coalition.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated a call for th ceasefire and a resumption of talks on a political settlement "The United States will continue to apply pressure to the H sanctions, to advance those goals," he said in a statement.

U.K. U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed a new Atlantic Charter on Thursday, modeled after the 1941 agreement, that outlines eight key areas on which the U.S. and the United Kingdom plan to collaborate, NBC News reported.

The revamped charter, which comes during Biden's first trip abroad as president, says it builds "on the commitments and aspirations set out eighty years ago, affirms our ongoing commitment to sustaining our enduring values and defending them against new and old challenges."

Those commitments include defending democracy, reaffirming the importance of collective security and ensuring a fair and open global trading system, the document said.

CHINA Police in China arrested over 1,100 people suspected of using cryptocurrencies to launder illegal proceeds from telephone and Internet scams in a recent crackdown, the Ministry of Public Security said.

The arrests came as authorities in China step up their crackdown on cryptocurrency trading. Last month, three industry bodies banned crypto-related financial and payment services, and the State Council, China's cabinet, vowed to clamp down on bitcoin mining and trading, Reuters reported.

The public security ministry said that by Wednesday afternoon police had busted more than 170 criminal groups involved in using cryptocurrencies to launder money.

The money launderers charged their criminal clients a commission of 1.5% to 5% to convert illegal proceeds into virtual currencies via crypto exchanges, the ministry said via its official Wechat account.

AUSTRALIA

Scientists have confirmed the discovery of a new dinosaur species in Australia, one of the largest found in the world, more than a decade after cattle farmers first uncovered bones of the animal.

The plant-eating sauropod lived in the Cretaceous period between 92 million and 96 million years ago when Australia was attached to Antartica, according to a research paper published on Monday.

Paleontologists estimated the dinosaur reached a height of 5-6.5 metres at the hip and 25-30 metres in length, making it as long as a basketball court and as tall as a two storey building.

That makes the new species the largest dinosaur ever found in Australia and puts it in the top five in the world, joining an elite group of titanosaurs previously only discovered in South America, Reuters reported.

"Discoveries like this are just the tip of the iceberg," said Queensland Museum curator and palaeontologist Scott Hocknull.

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CANADA

A pickup truck attack that has shaken Canada, a coun and drew denunciations Tu called it a hate crime dire The victims — two paren on an evening walk when intersection in London, O who was hospitalized.

“This was a terrorist attac our communities,” Prime The victims’ extended fam Salman Afzal, 46; his wife M hospitalized boy was iden

it called members of a smuggling Houthis, pressuring the Iran-aligned ported. ance a U.N. effort to ease Yemen's dire inst the government and a Saudi-led

he Houthis to accept a nationwide t to the seven-year-old conflict.

Houthis, including through targeted

EL SALVADOR El Salvador has become the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender after Congress approved President Nayib Bukele's proposal to embrace the cryptocurrency.

With 62 out of 84 possible votes, lawmakers voted in favor of the move to create a law to adopt bitcoin, despite concern about the potential impact on El Salvador's program with the International Monetary Fund.

Bukele has touted the use of bitcoin for its potential to help Salvadorans living abroad to send remittances back home, while saying the U.S. dollar will also continue as legal tender.

GERMANY Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives won a resounding victory in a state election in eastern Germany on Sunday, in a boost to Armin Laschet, who hopes to succeed Merkel in September's national election, Reuters reported.

An exit poll from the Saxony-Anhalt election for public broadcaster MDR had the Christian Democrats (CDU) on 36%, up more than 6 points on five years ago, and far ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), who were on 22.5%, slightly down on the previous election.

Laschet, a centrist, was seen as having made an uncertain start to his election campaign and had faced calls to chart a more right-wing course to win back voters disenchanted by 16 years of compromises under Merkel.

MYANMAR In a move designed to burnish its claims to international support and recognition, Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government (NUG) has promised to grant the country’s beleaguered Rohingya minority population citizenship.

In a policy statement released last week, the NUG, which was formed to oppose the military junta that seized power in February, said that the Rohingya are “entitled to citizenship by laws that will accord with fundamental human rights and democratic federal principles,” The Diplomat reported.

It added, “We invite the Rohingyas to join hands with us and with others to participate in this Spring Revolution against the military dictatorship in all possible ways.”

t killed four members of an immigrant family ntry where immigrants are largely accepted, Tuesday from Canada’s prime minister, who ected at Muslims. nts, two children and a grandmother — were the driver of the truck struck them at an Ontario. The sole survivor was a 9-year-old boy,

ck, motivated by hatred, in the heart of one of Minister Justin Trudeau told Parliament. mily issued a statement identifying the dead as Madiha, 44; their daughter Yumna, 15; and a 74-year-old grandmother whose name was withheld. The ntified as the couple’s son, Fayez. Friends said the family immigrated to Canada 14 years ago.

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over story

The Water Wars Defining Middle East Future The Reshaping of MENA Geopolitical Coalitions and Military Strategies Dalia Ziada Armed conflicts are not new to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It is the only region in the world where people, on daily basis, witness

stories of territorial disputes, civil wars, proxy wars, and the non-ending cycle of the rise and fall of terrorist organizations of different shapes, names, and sizes. However, the emerging era of water wars in the MENA region is expected to be the worst of all.

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That is not only because of the urgency of water resources to human life, but also because these water conflicts have become a determining factor in shaping regional geopolitical coalitions and military strategies of the entire MENA region.

THE ESSENCE OF MENA WATER WARS In their essence, the current wars over water resources in the MENA region are not as shallow as being motivated by the scarcity of clean water or the unfair delineation of maritime zones. This is only the thin surface of the problem. Most of these conflicts are purposefully stirred up as part of greater political and economic schemas. That make them more complicated and dangerous. In that sense, water wars in the MENA region can be identified into two main categories.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia. (Getty)

The first category is the ‘hydro-political’ conflicts, where countries with natural control over the water resource use their geographic advantage to stress targeted countries into producing a certain political or diplomatic reaction that enhances the geopolitical or military objectives of the offender country.

A good example on this is the current EuphratesTigris conflict between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Iraq and Syria. Another interesting example is the decades-long conflict over the Jordan River between Israel and Arab neighbors.

The current wars over water resources in the MENA region are not as shallow as being motivated by the scarcity of clean water or the unfair delineation of maritime zones.

This is only the thin surface of the problem. of them is at the north, where the century-old conflict in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus has been boiling for a while.

The other one is in the south, where a potential war between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia is currently brewing.

THE HYDRO-ENERGY CONFLICT IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

In the past three years, the conflict between Turkey and Greece, in the eastern Mediterranean reached a peak point that pushed MENA countries, especially from North Africa and the Arab Gulf region, The second category is ‘hydro-energy’ conflicts. to intervene. In December 2019, Turkey signed a They are the conflicts initiated in water basins, in military agreement and a maritime agreement with pursuit of the energy resources embedded in or gen- the former Libyan Government of National Accord erated by the power of these waters. A prominent (GNA). On one hand, the maritime agreement allive example on this is the conflict over maritime lowed Turkey to maneuver the international laws zones demarcation in the Aegean and the eastern and access the maritime zones disputed with Greece, Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, and Cy- in search for hydrocarbon (natural gas). This was prus. Another important case to monitor, in this seen by Greece as a threat to its economic interregard, is the growing conflict over the Blue Nile ests and national security. On the other hand, the River between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. How- military agreement allowed Turkey to send military ever, the Nile River conflict is a bitter fit for the troops and mercenaries to Tripoli. This was seen by hydro-political category as we will explain in more Egypt as a threat to its national security, mainly because of the animosity that aroused between Turkey details below. and Egypt, after the removal of the Muslim BrotherTo understand the complexity of hydro-political hood regime from power in Egypt, in 2013. and hydro-energy wars and the threat they pause to the MENA region, let’s zoom in the map on Egypt, As a result, Egypt and Greece signed an Exclusive which is currently stuck between two hydro battles Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement, in August 2020, that are defining the future of the Middle East. One to deter the common threats represented by Turkey.

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For decades, out of respect to brotherly relations with Turkey, Egypt used to turn down Greece requests to sign an EEZ agreement. In addition, Egypt cooperated with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel on establishing the EastMed Gas Organization, which purposefully excluded Turkey, despite being the country with the longest border in the Mediterranean, because of its unpleasant record of regional conflicts, especially with the Mediterranean countries forming the organization.

Thus, Egypt, whether like it or not, found itself part of the conflict in the Mediterranean, which in the

In the past three years, the conflict between Turkey and Greece, in the eastern Mediterranean reached a peak point that pushed MENA countries, especially from North Africa and the Arab Gulf region, to intervene.

summer of 2020 turned into a basin of war with foreign warships and fighter jets, coming from all over the world, under the guise of performing military drills. Under this chaotic scene, Egypt participated in a record number of naval exercises, mostly in the Mediterranean, with France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. In the same year, the Egyptian navy traveled to maritime basins, as far as the Black Sea, for a joint exercise with Russia. In the process, Egypt has been working hard to upgrade its naval fleet. According to the Global Firepower ranking for 2021, Egypt has become the 7th out of 140 countries, in terms of navy fleet strength, while Turkey remained in the 20th position of the same index.

Egypt’s forced involvement into the Mediterranean conflict pushed Arab Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar to diplomatically and militarily intervene. Saudi Arabia and UAE took the side of Greece, in an effort to deter the Turkish threat on the security and sovereignty of Arab countries, particularly Libya.

Several military and naval exercises were conducted between Greece, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, which Turkey found offensive. On the flip side, Qatar intervened in the Mediterranean conflict in support of its ally Turkey and also to challenge Saudi and

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Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (L) welcomes Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the Maximos Mansion in Athens, on November 2020 ,11.

(Getty)

A picture taken on September 2019 ,25 in the Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Cyprus approximately 20 nautical miles (37 kilometers) north-west of Paphos, shows a Turkish army frigate, the TCG Gelibolu, (R) and the drilling vessel Fatih (L), which was deployed by Turkey to search for gas and oil in waters considered part of the EU state’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

(Getty)

UAE due to diplomatic tensions that separated them for about four years. The role played by Arab countries in the Mediterranean conflict did not only alter its outcomes, but also enhanced the military capabilities and reshaped geopolitical coalitions of the Arabs with European and north African countries.

In January 2021, Saudi, UAE, and Egypt reconciled with Qatar under Al-Ula Declaration. This also encouraged the start of rapprochement effort between Turkey and Egypt. When actualized, Turkey-Egypt cooperation may change the entire balance in the Mediterranean conflict, for decades to come.

THE HYDRO-POLITICAL CONFLICT ON THE NILE RIVER Simultaneously, in the south, Egypt is directly involved in a fast-growing conflict with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which was illegally built in 2010. Ironically, Turkey and Arab Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have an influence on this critical conflict that affects, not only the immediate security of eastern African countries, but also the global trade movement, which depends on the Red Sea. Since the 1970s, Ethiopia has always dreamt about building a huge dam on the Blue Nile, but it always

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feared military retaliation from Egypt. In April 2011, Ethiopia took advantage of Egyptian state weakness following the Arab Spring revolution, and unilaterally decided to build the GERD. Ethiopia justifies building the dam saying it will generate electricity for more than 65% of the population. The Ethiopian state, also, sells a strange lie to the Ethiopian people claiming that Ethiopia owns the water of the Nile, because “God makes the Nile spring in their land.” Accordingly, they believe that they can hold the Nile water behind a dam and sell it to other countries, the same way Arab Gulf countries are selling oil and petroleum resources extracted from their lands.

However, the core of Ethiopia’s insistence on challenging Egypt on this matter is that it serves the interests of the political elite and improves their chances of winning the elections. In other words, Ethiopian politicians are benefiting from keeping this hydro-political conflict going without a resolution. The failed negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, in Congo’s capital city of Kinshasa, in early April, was the latest in a long list of failed negotiations, that has been going on for ten years. Apparently, Ethiopia purposefully used these negotiations to waste time until they get the dam completely built and filled. They used nega-

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tions, also, as an excuse to prevent Egypt from requesting the intervention of the international community, especially the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), to force Ethiopia sign an internationally recognized agreement that protects Egypt and Sudan’s share in the water resources of the Nile River.

Since the beginning of 2021, Egypt has been taking real steps towards validating the option of going to war with Ethiopia if it continues to ignore Egypt’s water security concerns. In mid-March, the Egyptian President signaled a clear warning to Ethiopia that “if negotiations fail, all other options are open for Egypt to take, including options that may threaten the security and stability of the region.” In March, Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with Sudan that allows the two countries to join forces in face of regional threats. On the same month, Egypt and Sudan conducted a number of joint military exercises at Merwoe military base, in southern Sudan, close to Ethiopia’s GERD. In late May, Egypt and Sudan conducted another military exercise in southern Sudan, wherein Egypt used land forces and advanced aviation equipment. Observers saw this particular exercise, named “Nile Protectors” as a warning message to Ethiopia, which was scheduled to fill in GERD with some 30 billion cubic meters, in early June. Meanwhile, Egypt signed other military cooperation agreements with Uganda, Kenya, and Burundi, which is believed to be used in action if Egypt decided to go to war.

Should an armed conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia erupts, it will not only affect the security of Africa but also the security of the Middle East and

Observers saw this particular exercise, named “Nile Protectors” as a warning message to Ethiopia, which was scheduled to fill in GERD with some 30 billion cubic meters, in early June.

the economic interests of Europe. Yet, the international community seems to be less concerned with resolving the conflict before it escalates to a point of actual war. The United States, which mediated in the conflict under the Trump Administration, withdrew itself from the negotiations under the Biden Administration. In a recent phone call with the Egyptian President, in early June, the President of the European council showed support to Egypt’s fight for water security, but said the conflict with Ethiopia is an issue to be handled by the African Union. China, which is the biggest investor in Ethiopia’s operational capital, has declined Egypt’s requests to intervene to pressure Ethiopia. China has a similar conflict with neighbor countries over the Mekong River. Russia ignored Egypt’s request to mobilize the UNSC to intervene as a mediator. In a recent visit to Cairo, the Russian Foreign Minister said that he appreciates the criticality of the GERD issue for Egypt, but thinks that “it is an African matter that should be solved through the African Union.” Unfortunately, the African Union, which has been mediating between Egypt and Ethiopia

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Armed forces of Egypt and Sudan complete a joint military exercise in southern Kardavan province, Sudan on May 31, 2021. (Getty)

In January 2021, Saudi, UAE, and Egypt reconciled with Qatar under Al-Ula Declaration. which encouraged the start of rapprochement effort between Turkey and Egypt. When actualized, Turkey-Egypt cooperation may change the entire balance in the Mediterranean conflict, for decades to come. ment Commission, Turkey is the third biggest investor in the operational capital of Ethiopia, after China and Saudi Arabia. However, Egypt has not responded to Turkey’s offer, in order not to influence the cautious process of reconciliation currently happening between them. for years has not succeeded in moving things in the right direction.

In March, almost all Arab countries, except UAE and Qatar, showed support to Egypt and Sudan’s position against Ethiopia, by releasing simultaneous press statements confirming that Egypt’s national security is integral to the Arab security. UAE offered to intervene as an international mediator if all parties of the conflict agree on its intervention.

In May, Qatar started to take actual steps towards helping Egypt with solving the dispute with Ethiopia, in its capacity as the President of the Arab League.

Meanwhile, Turkey signaled that it could intervene as a mediator in the GERD crisis, if Egypt agrees. On March 12th, Erdogan’s special envoy to Iraq said on a televised interview that Turkey is ready to mediate in the GERD, provided that western countries do not intervene, because their intervention may complicate the issue. Turkey enjoys a massive political and economic influence over Ethiopia, that has continued for decades. According to the official data of the Ethiopian Invest-

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CONCLUSION Water-related disputes have become the main subject dictating the political and military agenda of the leading countries in the MENA region. That includes the countries immediately involved in the ongoing disputes, and also those who are not directly related but their economic and political wellbeing depends on the outcomes of such conflicts.

As we have seen, Arab Gulf countries are playing central roles in the conflict between Greece and Turkey in the Mediterranean, and the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia on the Nile River, despite the fact that none of them is a Mediterranean or a Nile River country. This incongruous situation is forcing the reshaping of regional coalitions, and is creating a cross-border military activity and a race of armament, that the MENA region has not seen since the 1970s.

Dalia Ziada is an Egyptian author and Director of the Liberal Democracy Institute. Her work covers military affairs, political Islamism, and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa. Tweets at @daliaziada.

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Khartoum’s GERD Fears and Hopes How Sudan is Addressing Big-Dam Issues with Ethiopia Khalid Saad Osman – Khartoum

reflected on the ground through military tensions on both countries’ borders, where Ethiopian farmers are As Ethiopia prepares to move forward with the second cultivating land on Sudanese territory. filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Officials from both countries have also been (GERD) mega-dam it is building on the Blue Nile, exchanging accusations of intransigence and differences between Sudan and Ethiopia are worsening escalation as the crisis aggravates. Ethiopia is said to over conflicting interests regarding the project. This is be ignoring Sudan’s request to resume talks and reach

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US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman meets with Sudanese Foreign Minister Maryam al-Sadeq al-Mahdi in Khartoum on May 7, 2021. (Getty)

a binding agreement over the filling and operation of the GERD, sparking regional and international fear the situation would worsen.

Ethiopia, which started building the GERD in 2011, expects to produce more than 6,000 megawatts of electricity from the dam project, while Egypt and Sudan, downstream Nile Basin countries that rely on the river for its freshwater, are concerned that the dam might affect their share of the water resources.

Ethiopia has announced that it would carry on with the second-phase -13.5billion-cubic-meter filling of the GERD this month. The volume of the first-phase filling last year was 4.9 billion cubic meters.

Last week, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry accused Addis Ababa of being “intransigent” in its positions on the mega hydropower project, which is located only 15 kilometers from the Sudanese border.

“The other party’s intransigence may drag the region into dire risk,” stressed Foreign Minister Mariam alSadiq al-Mahdi.

A cautious calm has been prevailing on the borders since December, when four Sudanese soldiers were killed in armed clashes, while both armies deployed their forces on both parts of al-Fashaqa disputed area.

Khartoum accuses Addis Ababa of invading its lands by arming and backing its “Shifta” militias.

While reaching an agreement over GERD has so far faltered, fears mount over the expected worsening conflict between the two largest neighboring powers in an already fragile region and the possible disintegration in the Horn of Africa, due to the dire situation.

In response to the crisis, Khartoum has formed a joint committee comprising security, political, agricultural, water and service aspects to address the worst-case scenario. It further intensified diplomatic efforts to find a new mediation to assist the African Union in finding a workable solution instead of playing observer.

While Khartoum did not reveal any military or security option to address the GERD dispute, its army announced its ability to restore all its border areas and called for demarcating the border, in line with already signed pacts.

According to the Sudanese Foreign Ministry, Ethiopia had politicized the GERD issue due to its internal situation - a reference to the unrest in its troubled Tigray region.

In a voice-recording obtained by the Majalla editor during a forum for the alumni of the American

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While reaching an agreement over GERD has so far faltered, fears mount over the expected worsening conflict between the two largest neighboring powers in an already fragile region and the possible disintegration in the Horn of Africa.

University in Cairo last week, Sadiq said that Khartoum has been seeking through political and peaceful pressure to halt Addis Ababa’s actions that harm bilateral ties.

Majalla also learned that Khartoum has intensified its diplomatic efforts and has begun contacting the United States, the European Union and other major countries in the region to pressure the Ethiopian government and prevent it from moving forward in the GERD’s second filling.

It has further demanded that the international parties mediate directly to reach a legally binding agreement with Ethiopia and Egypt in this regard.

Authorized sources at the Sudanese Irrigation Ministry slammed the African Union experts’ stances and considered them incapable of including Khartoum’s demands in a binding agreement for all the parties.

Sudan has stressed the importance of the exchange of information and the joint technical management of the operation and filling of the dam. It aims to prevent any harm to its water facilities, especially its Roseires dam, which is located near the Ethiopian dam, as well as the agricultural development projects.

Sources expressed regret over Ethiopia’s reluctance to understand Sudan’s concerns.

“Ethiopia’s opposition raises actual concerns about possible plans to control the Blue Nile waters,” they said, noting that internal interactions and regional ambitions affect its decision.

Despite these preparations, advisers to the Sudanese government observed that technical issues will make it impossible for Addis Ababa to carry out the second phase of filling the reservoir with about 13.5 billion cubic meters.

Ethiopia failed to complete the first phase of the

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GERD filling of 4.5 billion cubic meters, they affirmed, noting that it stopped construction at 565 meter-long entrances to the concrete part.

“This height is not sufficient to reserve the amount of water Addis Ababa announced it aims to store,” they added.

Ethiopia needs to increase the height of this area to 690 meters to be able to reserve its targeted 13.5 billion cubic meters in the second filling phase in mid-July. Addis Ababa had officially announced that the second filling would continue until reaching 573 meter-long in height.

However, these technical reassurances have not pacified Sudan’s fears arising from not being able to reach a binding agreement among the three concerned

Khartoum pins its hopes on the international community and the US to pressurize Addis Ababa politically and diplomatically, especially since the US had played a significant role in the earlier mediation.

parties, prompting it to prepare various scenarios to address the crisis.

Khartoum pins its hopes on the international community and the US to pressurize Addis Ababa politically and diplomatically, especially since the US had played a significant role in the earlier mediation, when technical and legal issues were resolved and progress was made in the trilateral negotiations.

Ethiopia’s objection to signing the agreement dealing with GERD’s filling and operation as well as some technical matters changes the course of talks.

Officials in Sudan’s transitional government have repeatedly announced their country’s willingness to negotiate and resolve the issue through peaceful means, under the AU auspices and with the help of international partners as guarantors and facilitators.

Political Science Professor at the University of Africa Dr. Mohamed Khalifa Seddik says relying on the AU to resolve the Sudanese-Ethiopian crisis is useless.

He told Majalla that the AU will always be biased towards Ethiopia. Despite this, the situation remains alarming in the absence of a clear initiative that includes a roadmap to end the conflict.

For his part, Professor Abdel-Wahab al-Tayeb, who is specialized in the Horn of Africa affairs, said all the conditions for war are present and the region is ripe for a major regional war.

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A soldier walks past girls looking on in the village of Dukouli within the Quraysha locality, located in the Fashaqa al-Sughra agricultural region of Sudan›s eastern Gedaref state on March 2021 ,16. (Getty)

Representatives of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia meet to negotiate on the filling and operation of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on January 2020 ,08. (Getty)

In fact, regional interests are intersecting, and in light of these complications and differences, the war is looming, he told Majalla.

He also recalled a statement by former US President Donald Trump in which he commented on Ethiopia’s rejection to sign the GERD agreement in Washington and did not rule out striking the mega-dam.

Tayeb further said the border dispute emanated from the GERD crisis, adding that Addis Ababa is behind this tension since the disputed lands are Sudanese, according to all the documents, pacts and international laws.

During late President Meles Zenawi’s rule, Addis Ababa recognized Sudan’s sovereignty over its lands, and both sides agreed to demarcate the borders with a Spanish company. But the political instability in both countries forced them to postpone marking out the demarcation lines.

Imad al-Naim, a strategic analyst who is familiar with the border issue, said that the impacts of the Ethiopian position appear clear in the military confrontations in the disputed al-Fashaqa border area.

Ethiopia refuse to reveal the program of opening and closing the dam for the water flow, he told Majalla, noting that Sudan wants to review this program and know when to open and close its reservoirs on the Blue Nile.

Khartoum seeks to prevent damage as a result of the sudden opening of the GERD channels that may have catastrophic effects on the downstream country.

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These technical reassurances have not pacified Sudan’s fears arising from not being able to reach a binding agreement among the three concerned parties, prompting it to prepare various scenarios to address the crisis.

Sudan seems to be biased towards Egypt, he said, yet it is actually working to attain its national interest, Naim stressed.

According to Naim, Khartoum sees the dam essential in the future to double its benefit from the Nile waters and limit the damages caused by the floods.

“It would also benefit citizens living in areas near the Nile to cultivate crops they couldn’t plant during the flood periods,” he concluded.

Khalid Saad Osman is a Sudanese journalist and the General Director of the Sudanese Center for Development Communication.

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Hezbollah Confirms Iran’s Hegemony How Does the Group Benefit From Lebanon’s Collapse?

Hanin Ghaddar In his most recent speech on Tuesday, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah unambiguously

said that he – and his Iranian sponsors – are the deciders of Lebanon. Despite several attempts at maneuvering the political and economic crisis by his allies and other political parties,

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The collapse and disintegration of the country’s institutions could push all political parties and elites to accept a new political conference – one that would change the constitution, overthrow the Taef accord, and lead to a new three-power power-sharing system in Lebanon. port… let the Lebanese state block the entry of diesel and gasoline to the Lebanese people,” Nasrallah said.

Although this surprised many in Lebanon, it was an honest declaration of hegemony. This state is mine, Nasrallah said.

THE STATE OF HEZBOLLAH

Some anti-government protesters throw rocks at surrounding buildings during a protest against the power cuts, the high cost of living, and the low purchasing power of the Lebanese currency, outside of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) building in Beirut, Lebanon, on June 06, 2021. (Getty)

Nasrallah finally said no to three ideas: no to early elections, no to resignations of Hariri and other ministers and MPs, and no to the central bank stopping of subsidies. Hezbollah wants to preserve the status quo and continue smuggling subsidized goods.

Then he went straight to the point: Hezbollah is ready to go to Iran and ask for fuel, and Iran will take Lebanese Liras as payment - even if this means that Lebanon will be sanctioned for buying Iran’s’ fuel.

He also threatened that Hezbollah would take action in this regard if the Lebanese state does not act. “If we reach a state of despair over the state’s action, we in Hezbollah will negotiate with the Iranian government and buy gasoline and diesel ships and will bring them to Beirut

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Lebanon has long become part of Iran’s regional project, but reminiscence of the state still gave an impression of sovereignty. Today, the state collapsed with the economy, and whatever was left of independence is gone. To make things clear, Nasrallah reassured us earlier this week that Iran is now in control – of everything.

Forget the reforms, hopes for accountability, democracy or peace. Forget freedom of speech, and do not bother with elections and people’s will or desire for change. None of this will matter when Hezbollah needs to stay in control. They will kill, threaten, and take by force, and the Lebanese people – if they do not like the Iranian occupation – can leave. Those who cannot leave will have to surrender.

Since its inception, Hezbollah focused on its security and military programs, and never spent any time or resources to develop a socio-

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economic vision for Lebanon, or any of the states that Iran occupies, or wishes to occupy.

Hezbollah’s ideology is clear and simple, and it does not leave any room for freedom or political participation. It has always been based on a simple formula: what is mine is mine, and what is yours is mine.

This attitude comes from similar Islamists trends, who at their core, oppose critical thinking and democracy. The most powerful institutions are military and religious, while others, such as social, economic, cultural and others, come secondary or not at all. Accordingly, all what fumed Lebanon for the past century will be eradicated, and Lebanon will follow the same trends spreading in the region by Iran and its proxies. The collapse of the state at this point is necessary.

Isolating Lebanon from the international community does not have to be avoided. With a country and people completely under their control, without any leverage left for the US, France or the Gulf States, Hezbollah can move faster with transforming Lebanon into an Iranian colony and stop worrying about repercussions.

From a state within the state, Hezbollah spent decades to weaken the Lebanese state, and

Establishing a new system in Lebanon will not only protect Iran’s proxies, but also turn the page on what we knew as Lebanon for a hundred years. If this system works in Lebanon, it could also be a model to follow in the rest of the region, mainly Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

overgrow it. Today, Lebanon is the small state – an almost nonexistent entity – within Hezbollah’s state.

A Possible Scenario IN the midst of the eradication process of the Lebanese state, Hezbollah also realized that a weak state could be better than a completely collapsed one. A weak state still receives assistance and humanitarian aid that Hezbollah could still use and smuggle. Until a new USIran nuclear agreement, Hezbollah’s financial crisis will continue to hamper the group’s internal and regional operations. In addition, whatever is left of the state’s resource will be at its disposal – from subsidized items, covered by people’s deposits, to international aid that comes through the public institutions.

They will try to take it, directly or via their allies.

A few weeks ago, Janoubia website reported that Hezbollah is seeking to benefit from the collapse of Lebanon and the breakdown of all its security, banking, political, and administrative institutions, in addition to an expected socio-economic collapse and the complete chaos. The collapse and disintegration of the country’s institutions could push all political parties and elites to accept a new political conference – one that would change the constitution, overthrow the Taef accord, and lead to a new three-power power-sharing system in Lebanon. By default, Hezbollah will increase its representation in the state, and guarantee a long-term power and security for its weapons and military presence.

The main concern for Hezbollah and the Iranian regime is to protect these powers and control. They fear a changing Middle East, with the Abraham Accords, Israel’s growing technological and military capabilities, and a further isolation of the Iranian regime if the US – not just the Biden administration – decided to contain Iran’s operations and power in the region, despite signing the nuclear deal.

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Supporters of the the Shiite Hezbollah movement watch as the movement’s leader Hasan Nasrallah delivers a speech on a screen in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on January 12, 2020.

(Getty)

institutions, and calls for a political conference ahead of May 2022, in order to avoid the elections and establish Iran’s hegemony in Lebanon before it becomes complicated. In this sense, Lebanon’s problem is not economic or financial, and the solution needs a lot more than infrastructure and institutional reforms.

Lebanon’s problem is much more fundamental than this – and the whole system needs a serious upheaval. The Lebanese people need to be The Iranian regime knows that any agreement liberated from Iran’s occupation, and of Iran’s with the United States or a cease-fire with Is- proxies and allies, and then the march towards rael will only be temporary and for a brief pe- reform and accountability could begin. riod. Eventually, the region will continue to be Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow at The Iran’s battlefield and bargaining chips.

Establishing a new system in Lebanon will not only protect Iran’s proxies, but also turn the page on what we knew as Lebanon for a hundred years. If this system works in Lebanon, it could also be a model to follow in the rest of the region, mainly Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where Iran needs to bolster its proxies within and above institutions, even if it means economic collapses and social explosions.

Looking forward, it will not be farfetched if Hezbollah pushes further to the collapse of

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Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.

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When Biden Meets Putin Predictability and Stability on Agenda

Michael Kimmage

ceived and did their best to deploy in the 2020 campaign.

With so much jagged history between them, the latest meetU.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir ing between Biden and Putin will be awkward at a personal Putin, who are scheduled to meet in Geneva on June 16, level. may know each other too well. They first met in 2011, when But the absence of rapport may be overshadowed by the Biden, then U.S. vice president, by his own account told absence of substantive agreement. Biden did not campaign Putin, then Russian prime minister, “I don’t think you have on a reset of U.S. relations with Russia, and he has not a soul.” They clashed again after 2014, when Biden was pursued such an approach as president. Instead, his Russia tasked with bolstering Ukraine in the wake of its protests policy presumes a high degree of friction with Moscow. It and pressuring Russia to scale back its military interference recognizes the many ways in which Russia damages U.S. interests, from meddling in elections to occupying eastern in eastern Ukraine.

Putin then tasked himself with pushing back against Biden Ukraine to seeking to diminish U.S. influence worldwide. and the strain of U.S. policy he represented. The Russian Biden’s goal is not to transform relations with Russia but president had his intelligence services interfere with the to “restore predictability and stability to the U.S.-Russia re2016 U.S. presidential election in the hope that Donald lationship,” as Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, Trump, once elected, might reverse the Obama admin- explained when announcing the summit. istration’s stance on Russia. In the ensuing years, Putin’s There is thus a limit to how much the Putin-Biden summit minions likely passed along information or misinformation can accomplish. With each leader mistrusting and surely on Biden’s son Hunter, which Trump’s minions eagerly re- disliking the other, neither will go out of his way to deliver

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anything of significance. Even so, there is real value to the optics of consultation and deliberation. With luck, such optics can evolve into the reality of consultation and deliberation. These are the underpinnings of true stability, and they can keep Russia and the West from getting pulled into a direct confrontation—one that would be as undesirable as it would be undesired.

PUTIN’S CALCULUS

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (L) and US Vice President Joe Biden (2nd R), at that time, meet on March 10, 2011 with their delegations in Moscow. Putin on March 10 proposed to Biden that Russia and the United States abolish visas in a “historic” step to seal a revival in ties.

(Getty)

Putin will likely frame the Geneva summit more around his own diplomatic skills than around any particular deliverables. He knows that Biden will not lift U.S. sanctions anytime soon. The game of driving wedges between the United States and its European allies, which Putin enjoyed playing in the Trump era, will pay fewer dividends with Biden, who has shored up the transatlantic alliance; there are no propaganda points to be scored here. In fact, even the 2018 summit with Trump in Helsinki did little for Putin. The American president, asked about Russian election meddling, gleefully sided with Russia’s leader over his own intelligence professionals, marking a nadir for U.S. diplomacy. Yet this apparent public relations bonanza furnished Russia with no new geopolitical opening, and Trump’s words in Helsinki, as was so often the case, had little bearing on his administration’s policies.

With Biden, Putin will play the role of a statesman. He will try to get the summit to register as a meeting of equals. By in no way deferring to Biden, he will strive to demonstrate that Russia is a great power. Let other world leaders beg for the kind of U.S. attention that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been publicly craving since Biden entered the Oval Office. Let the Europeans gather with Biden in their byzantine multilateral forums. Let others wait out in the cold, too marginal or undemocratic or annoying to garner a meeting with the U.S. president. Putin will meet with Biden one-on-one—as, in his view, is Russia’s right.

Yet beyond international stature, Putin is also seeking the same things Biden wants: predictability and stability. True, Putin has not shied away from destabilizing Russia’s neighbors or even the United States. He may or may not have assisted the Belarusian government’s operation to force down a passenger plane to arrest a journalist flying from Greece to Lithuania, but he certainly condoned the act afterward.

For all the talk of Russia as a “revisionist spoiler,” however, the country revises and spoils much less than it could.

In Ukraine, it has declined to march on Kyiv. In the Middle East, it has continued to allow Israel access to Syrian airspace. And in the United States, it has held back from deploying its full arsenal of cyber-capabilities, which could

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Biden’s goal is not to transform relations with Russia but to “restore predictability and stability to the U.S.-Russia relationship,” as Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, explained when announcing the summit. surely wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.

An increasingly out-of-touch autocrat presiding over a worsening economy, Putin cannot afford an uncontrolled intensification of international conflicts—especially with the United States. Putin needs levers to manage conflict. A working relationship with Biden would cost him nothing, and it might well purchase him the geopolitical respite he needs to address the fraying tapestry of domestic Russian politics.

BIDEN’S GAME Biden should approach the summit by balancing the longterm with the immediate. A worthwhile practical gain would be to improve consular services for Russians in the United States and Americans in Russia. Over the past several years, in retaliation for the election meddling and for the harassment of U.S. diplomats, the United States expelled Russian diplomats and shuttered the Russian consulate in Seattle and San Francisco, as well as the Russian trade mission in Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, Russia expelled scores of U.S. diplomats. The United States, in turn, felt compelled to close consulates in Vladivostok, Yekaterinburg, and St. Petersburg, leaving the embassy in Moscow as its sole diplomatic mission in Russia—which the Kremlin is currently threatening to deprive of its Russian staff.

The lack of consulates in both countries makes it extremely difficult for citizens of either country to visit the other, cutting off the cultural and scientific contact that has historically benefited both. The people-to-people situation now is worse than it was during most of the Cold War. To correct it, Biden should offer to relax some of the conditions—enabling the reopening of Russia’s consulates in the United States or at least an expansion of U.S. consular services in

Russia—in hopes of ending the tit-for-tat reactions of the past several years.

Arms control will also be on the agenda in Geneva. Just a week after Biden took office, he and Putin agreed to renew the New START treaty, but there is room for improvement.

Not only could more arms control save money but it would also set a good example to other countries. If Russia and the United States, the world’s preeminent nuclear powers, cannot find an agreement on reducing their arsenals, then arms control agreements with Iran and North Korea are bound to fail. The area, fortunately, is ripe for progress. By its nature, arms control requires slow, painstaking work undertaken by scientists who are less preoccupied with bilateral irritants than are policymakers and diplomats. As a first step, the two leaders could establish working groups, some of them mul-

Biden should approach the summit by balancing the longterm with the immediate. A worthwhile practical gain would be to improve consular services for Russians in the United States and Americans in Russia.

tilateral, to conceptualize future arms control challenges.

Biden’s long-term goal should be to normalize U.S.-Russian relations. Simply by taking place, a Putin-Biden summit would help on this front, by suggesting that it is normal for Russian and American presidents to meet and meet often. President Barack Obama had a good first meeting with Putin in Moscow in 2009. That was followed in 2010 by the cheery “hamburger summit” with Dmitry Medvedev—who replaced Putin as Russian president for four years—during which the two youthful presidents shared a photo op at a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia. But then things went downhill. In 2013, Obama canceled a planned summit with Putin after Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who released thousands of classified documents, was granted asylum in Russia. After that, with the exception of tense meetings on the sidelines of bigger international gatherings, there was only the July 2017 summit between Trump and Putin, which was as unproductive as it was embarrassing.

During the Cold War, even as the two sides’ proxies battled each other across the globe, the United States and the Soviet Union held regular diplomatic summits, which signified that the conflict was not itself a conventional war. Its end state was not unconditional surrender but a wary and imperfect coexistence. By contrast, the post–Cold War summits between U.S. and Russian leaders were supposed to express partnership. They came to a halt during the second half of the Obama administration, when the pretense of partnership could no longer be sustained. So twisted and uncertain has the relationship become now that it must be shown that Rus-

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Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (R) speaks with US President Barack Obama at the 9th East Asia Summit in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw on November 2014 ,13. (Getty)

Former intelligence contractor Edward Snowden poses for a photo during an interview in an undisclosed location in December 2013 in Moscow, Russia. Snowden who exposed extensive details of global electronic surveillance by the National Security Agency has been in Moscow since June 2012 after getting temporary asylum in order to evade prosecution by authorities in the U.S. (Getty)

sia and the United States are not at war. Even a summit composed entirely of preset talking points would help do this.

For the Biden administration, the Geneva summit does not just concern diplomacy. Under Trump, policy toward Russia and Ukraine got tangled up in U.S. politics. Trump had any number of strange connections to the Russian government, although evidence that he was a Russian asset never surfaced and accusations that he colluded with Russia were often driven by partisan motivations. Objectively, however, Trump allowed Russian misinformation or intelligence about Biden’s son Hunter to inform his reelection campaign. These were the dirty dealings for which Trump was impeached in 2019. By starting to normalize U.S.-Russian relations, Biden can restore Russia to its rightful place within the United States: as a matter of foreign policy, not domestic politics.

By starting to normalize U.S.Russian relations, Biden can restore Russia to its rightful place within the United States: as a matter of foreign policy, not domestic politics.

Ukraine has become yet another of the region’s frozen conflicts. The diplomatic agreements forged by Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine to end the conflict are an irrelevant footnote to the situation on the ground. Meanwhile, Belarus is under the leadership of a mad dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, who will either achieve North Korea–style isolation for his country or fall trying. The United States and WHAT’S AT STAKE its European allies want Belarus to be democratized, while Russia, which has a substantial military presence within the Expectations for the Putin-Biden summit are rightly low. country, insists that it remain tied to Moscow. In and around The stakes, however, are high. Russia and the West are cur- Syria, the U.S. and Russian militaries are in close proximity rently sleepwalking toward the abyss. Neither side feels any but have entirely distinct objectives. pressure to compromise. Domestic politics in both countries All these incompatibilities will persist for decades. They rewards toughness. Each side is convinced that the other is admit no clear solution and may never get solved. But they in decline, making compromise that much less desirable, cannot be allowed to metastasize. That is Biden’s mandate since one side’s collapse—and, by extension, the other’s in Geneva: to begin the arduous journey toward predictabilvictory—is only a matter of time. ity and stability.

Little will get resolved in Geneva. Some six years after Russia invaded Ukraine, Crimea remains annexed, and eastern This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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How Turkey Gains from Economic Takeover of Syrian Regions

Ankara’s Long-term Political & Territorial Ambitions Unveiled Jiwan Soz - Istanbul Turkey has been forcing people for almost a year now to trade using its local currency in different Syrian regions that lie on its southern border and are under its army’s control. Likewise, these areas

are under the control of Turkish-backed armed militias that oppose the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, who won a fourth term this May in an election that sparked criticism and widespread international rejection.

Trading in the Turkish lira has officially begun

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Turkey benefited greatly after imposing its currency in Syria.

Through this step, Erdogan was able to requisition all the hard foreign currency entering these areas in huge amounts from states and governments supporting the armed opposition groups.

A Syrian man pays with Turkish lira at a gas station in the town of Sarmada in Syria›s northwestern Idlib province, on June 15, 2020.

(Getty)

since June 2020 in at least seven Syrian regions, namely Idlib, Afrin, Azaz, al-Bab, Jarablus, Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain. These towns and cities are in northwestern and southwestern Syria and have been run by Ankara since the attacks that were launched by the Turkish Army within Syrian territory between 2016 and 2019, alongside antiAssad Syrian armed groups.

“By enforcing people to use its currency in these regions, Ankara is seeking to annex them to the Turkish economy,” said researcher and political analyst specializing in Turkish affairs, Sarkis Kassargian.

“The goal behind this step is primarily political,” he stressed, noting that things won’t stop at linking these Syrian cities to the Turkish economy, but rather to its political and social levels in the future.

In his comments to Majalla, Kassargian said residents of these Syrian regions might eventually find that their very existence and daily needs are dependent on the regime of Turkish President

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “This means that this economic subordination is significant, particularly during any upcoming election or any political settlement involving these regions, especially that the locals themselves might endorse Erdogan,” he explained. This might mean becoming part of Turkey due to their concerns about their livelihoods. “This precisely is the second goal behind the current Turkish regime’s imposition of its currency in these areas,” Kassargian stressed.

Experts on Turkish affairs did not rule out a popular referendum soon in order to annex all these cities and towns to Turkey, in reference to raising its flags and the pictures of its president on Syrian soil and imposing its local currency in different areas it runs.

Turkey considers these areas part of its provinces, whereas the government in Damascus and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria consider them “occupied” cities, experts noted.

In the last few years, Ankara inaugurated branches of Turkish universities in those Syrian cities, in addition to branches of its post offices. The Turkish language is now considered official in schools, institutes and universities in cities that were occupied by the Turkish army years ago.

Kassargian further noted that Turkey benefited greatly after imposing its currency in Syria.

Through this step, Erdogan was able to requisition all the hard foreign currency entering these areas

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in huge amounts from states and governments supporting the armed opposition groups. Erdogan replaced them with Turkish currency in densely populated regions, which raised the demand for the Turkish lira, causing it to deprecate in value only “gradually and slowly.”

“Erdogan imposed the Turkish lira in those Syrian regions during a critical period for the Turkish economy,” Kassargian said. “This is why he seized all forms of hard currency that the opposition groups had accumulated out of foreign financing, looting and plundering of public and service facilities as well as factories, railways and oil, and the smuggling of both people and antiquities.” In doing so, he forced all the residents of those areas to use his country’s currency, thereby gaining a supply of foreign currency and creating a new market for the Turkish lira, he explained.

The political analyst affirmed that the Syrian economy has suffered a great loss due to the trading in Turkish lira on Syrian soil. “Syria’s economic losses are reflected in Turkey’s economic gains,” he stated.

“Syria first lost the available foreign currency, and a certain mass of the population was no longer in need of its currency, which decreased the demand and deprecated its value more quickly at the economic level.”

“Politically, Syria lost a mass of its citizens, and their livelihoods became linked to the Turkish economic system,” he added.

For over a year, it has been mandatory to use Turkish currency in the Syrian areas that fall under

Residents of these Syrian regions might eventually find that their very existence and daily needs are dependent on the regime of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

the Turkish army’s control. Before that, people had a choice due to the instability of the Syrian lira against the foreign currency.

Last year, Turkey introduced huge amounts of Turkish paper notes and coins of different value primarily to Idlib, which is under the control of Tahrir al-Sham, al-Qaeda’s arm in Syria, as well as to Afrin, Azaz and other Syrian cities that are controlled by the Ankara-backed so-called “Syrian National Army.”

As the Turkish lira circulated instead of the Syrian lira, the areas controlled by Tahrir al-Sham and other Ankara-backed militias officially became part of Turkey, featuring Turkish facilities, hospitals and shipping companies. In addition, these areas became beneficiaries of a plan supplying Turkish electricity, not to mention the Turkish army’s

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Syrians queue outside a currency exchange shop in Syria›s northwestern city of Idlib, on June 15, 2020. (Getty)

extensive presence there.

In addition to daily dealings in Turkish currency, Ankara also pays in Turkish lira all the fighters and civilians who work in Turkish-backed administrative and military institutions.

The Turkish army controls about 50 percent of Syria, where about four million Syrian civilians live, according to data published by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Turkey launched three attacks on Syrian territory under the pretext of protecting its “national security,” which mostly meant its refusal of the presence of armed Syrian Kurdish forces on its southern border.

Ankara mainly targeted the Syrian Democratic Forces whose main component is the Kurdish

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People’s Protection Units. These units are pluralistic forces comprising Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and Armenians, among others.

The military operations in Kurdish-majority Afrin have caused hundreds of thousands of Kurds to flee the area. Most of them were unable to return to their homes as a result of what the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria described as the “ethnic cleansing of Kurds and religious and ethnic minorities” in the city and in other Syrian cities that fall under Ankara’s control.

Jiwan Soz is a researcher and journalist who focuses on Turkish affairs and minorities in the Middle East. He is also a member of Syndicat National des Journalistes (National Syndicate of Journalists [SNJ]).

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Americans Say Immigrants Should Learn English But U.S. Policy Makes That Hard Olga Khazan “Speak English!” can be one of the cruelest things for an immigrant to hear. It can sound simultaneously like a demand for instant assimilation, an accusation of disloyalty, and a presumption of stubbornness or ignorance. In some circles, the call for immigrants to speak English has fused with a call for less immigration in general, as though language differences are themselves offensive. It’s no acci-

dent that “You have to speak English!” was a Donald Trump rallying cry.

The uncomfortable reality is that learning English can, in fact, make immigrants’ lives much better.

Immigrants who learn English improve both their earnings and their acceptance by other Americans.

Most immigrants want to learn English, and immigration advocates think it should be easier for them to do so. Unfortunately, it’s extremely difficult for immigrants to find English classes that are afford-

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Adult students and immigrants prepare food during an English-asa-Second-Language course geared to recent immigrants on January 6, 2016, in Philadelphia, PA, USA. (Getty)

able and accessible.

I know firsthand the bewilderment of living in a new culture with no language skills. A few months after my family immigrated to the United States, my mom and I sat in our apartment in Los Angeles, trying to absorb English from MTV. Madonna glided down a red staircase in the “Material Girl” music video, and we both wondered what it all meant.

In the U.S., English proficiency and earnings are tightly bound. Overall, immigrants make up a sixth of the American workforce, and immigrants who learn English earn more, mostly because they become eligible for higher-paying jobs. “Every little bit of English you learn will actually get you a better job,” Amanda Bergson-Shilcock, a senior fellow at the National Skills Coalition, which advocates for vocational-skills training, told me. “Even entry-level jobs in the U.S. overwhelmingly require some level of English.” (Ultimately, my mom learned English at her job at McDonald’s. I learned in school.)

Rightly or wrongly, immigrants’ English skills influence Americans’ views of immigration. A majority of Americans believe that a person must speak English to be considered American. Though Republicans are more likely to strongly endorse this view, even majorities of first-generation immigrants and liberal Democrats believe that English fluency is necessary for integration into American society.

This isn’t necessarily a measure of xenophobia; people of both parties tend to be accepting of those who speak English with an accent. Part of the explanation, says Emily Ekins, the director of polling at the Cato Institute, which recently conducted a large survey on the topic, is that people want to understand their neighbors. “You need to speak some kind of common language in order to have a deeper relationship with other people,” Ekins told me. “When was the last time you had someone over to your house for dinner if you didn’t both speak the same language?”

As I describe in my book, several studies show that Americans view immigrants who speak English more positively than they view immigrants who don’t. So does the federal government: One of the requirements to become a U.S. citizen is to pass an English-language test, but “that fear of the English test is one of the reasons that people don’t go through the naturalization process,” says Cecilia Muñoz, who was the director of the White House Domestic Policy Council under President Barack

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Most immigrants want to learn English, and immigration advocates think it should be easier for them to do so. Unfortunately, it’s extremely difficult for immigrants to find English classes that are affordable and accessible.

Obama.

Yet the U.S. has an unusually laissez-faire attitude toward immigrant integration. Other industrialized countries do more to integrate immigrants and refugees into their society. In Sweden, foreigners get unlimited Swedish lessons at no cost; sometimes these lessons are built into job-training programs.

France requires a short indoctrination session on “French values,” but afterward offers 400 hours of language instruction with free child care. Canada offers extensive free language classes to newcomers, some of which provide free child care and transportation. “Canada is starting from the premise of ‘Hey, you’re immigrating to Canada because you have skills? Oh, what’s to stop you from using those skills in our labor market? English or French skills?

Okay, how do we make sure you have English or French skills?’” Bergson-Shilcock said. The U.S., though, has no national policy aimed at helping immigrants become full-fledged Americans. “We’ve basically said, ‘Hi, you’re here. Good luck; sink or swim on your own.’”

Recent immigrants to the U.S. generally have better English skills than those who immigrated a century ago. A Mexican who immigrated in 2010 is more likely to learn English than an Italian who immigrated in 1910 was. Still, about 10 percent of workingage adults—at least 11 million people—don’t speak English well. And the publicly funded adult English-education system has never been able to serve more than about 1 million of those people, according to Johan Uvin, a former official in the Obama administration’s Department of Education. It takes about 350 hours of instruction to reach a functional level of language proficiency, he says, but most students spend only about 140 hours in formal English

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classes.

Community colleges and private instructors offer English lessons for a fee, but many English learners don’t have the money for these. (Most immigrants make less than $50,000 a year, and 15 percent live in poverty.)

The options for the majority of immigrants who can’t afford private classes are much more limited.

Several studies show that Americans view immigrants who speak English more positively than they view immigrants who don’t. So does the federal government: One of the requirements to become a U.S. citizen is to pass an English-language test

“If somebody is looking for free access to Englishlanguage classes, right now the adult-education system is the primary vehicle,” says Ali Noorani, the president of the National Immigration Forum. Yet this system, which is often run through local nonprofits, community colleges, and school districts, is serving less than 4 percent of the need, according to a 2018 report from the Migration Policy Institute.

Where they do exist, these classes are in short supply—many states and localities have waiting lists.

In Massachusetts, 16,000 people were on the waiting list for ESL classes in 2018. “In typical years, there are as many people on [the] waitlist as there are being served in the state,” says Claudia Green, the executive director of English for New Bostonians.

In Iowa, Kirkwood Community College runs a free eight-hour-a-week English class in three different cities. Its students, many of whom come to class after long days in meatpacking plants or factories, are a “hardworking, grateful, really dedicated group,” says Stephanie Hasakis, Kirkwood’s ESL-program supervisor. Still, the program has to turn away students almost every term for lack of space. America is essentially demanding that immigrants learn English without giving them the means to do so.

Unlike some countries, the U.S. does not pay immi-

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Immigrants take part in an English as a Second Language (ESL), class on December 3, 2016 at an migrants assistance center in Stamford, Connecticut. (Getty)

Immigrants arrive to take part in an English as a Second Language (ESL), class on December 3, 2016 at an migrants assistance center in Stamford, Connecticut. (Getty)

grants for their language-learning time, which they typically need to spend working. Even when classes are available, immigrants might not attend, because they work two or three jobs and lack transportation or child care. In Boston, Green says she’s actually seen an uptick in English-class attendance during the pandemic simply because, with virtual classes, people didn’t have to contend with commuting and child care.

A few companies, including Whole Foods, have experimented with offering their immigrant workers English classes on company time. And some states run cellphone-based English classes, which provide short taped lessons and a coach.

Although these are great models, they are the exception, not the rule. “Most immigrants cannot take an English class through their employer,” said Bergson-Shilcock, with the National Skills Coalition.

To change America’s approach to teaching immigrants English, the federal government has to dump more money on the problem. But increasing the number of immigrants who learn English, and how fast they do so, may also require a cultural shift. The employers who provide English classes, BergsonShilcock said, see immigrant employees as assets, rather than as costs to be managed. For a more en-

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To change America’s approach to teaching immigrants English, the federal government has to dump more money on the problem.

But increasing the number of immigrants who learn English, and how fast they do so, may also require a cultural shift. lightened approach to English learners, Americans have to stop looking at immigrants as “a collection of deficits.”

She mentioned a recent meme that lists things that are considered “classy” when a rich person does them but “trashy” when a poor person does them.

One of the most frequently mentioned examples was speaking a second language.

This was originally published on the Atlantic Online.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Dua Lipa: An Exceptional English Singer of Kosovan Origin www.majalla.com

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Arab Media Getting New Shape Regional Partnership Between Egyptian and Saudi Media Firms to Boost Industry Menna A. Farouk

MoUs are expected to usher the Arab world’s media industry into a new phase of upgrade and moderniCairo witnessed this month the signing of two mem- zation. oranda of understanding between United Media Ser- The first MoU was signed between the United vices on the one hand and Al Arabia Outdoor Ad- Media Services and Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising concerning work on developing outdoor advertising and the MBC Group on the other.

According to media experts and professionals, the vertising in Egypt according to the latest technol-

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ogy in this field.

The second memorandum was signed between the United Media Services and the MBC Group and includes cooperation across three axes.

The first is the joint confrontation of piracy by doubling efforts between the two sides and providing technical resources at the technological level necessary to confront this negative phenomenon.

The second axis relates to partnership in the production of major TV dramas while the third axis is concerned with the possibility of cooperation in distributing the production of the United Media Services outside Egypt.

The signing of the MoUs was attended by Hassan Abdullah, Chairman of United’s Board of Directors, along with other members of the Board, Mohammed Al-Khuraiji, President of Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising, and Sam Barnett, CEO of MBC.

A Press conference was held in Cairo, Egypt to mark the signing of two memoranda of understanding between United Media Services on the one hand and Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising and the MBC Group on the other. (Social media photo)

“Having this partnership would largely benefit the Egyptian company and would pave the way for having high-budget, high-quality TV drama series,” Egyptian businessman and producer Ihab Talaat said.

world, including the United States and Canada.

Thus, this platform has become today the largest provider of Arabic content among the global digital platforms, thanks to the diversity of its content which is rich in original works and exclusive Arab productions in addition to international releases.

TURNAROUND IN MEDIA INDUSTRY By the end of Ramadan 2021, the number of Shahid VIP subscribers has reached more than two Ihab Talaat, an Egyptian businessman and pro- million, which reflects an increase of 43% comducer, said that the signing of those MoUs sig- pared to Ramadan 2020. nals a turning point in the TV drama industry as “This is a huge success that will add a lot to the well as in fighting piracy, which is a long-standing United Media Services,” Talaat said. phenomenon plaguing this sector.

“MBC has a long experience in the media in- ADVERTISING IN DIGITAL FORM dustry which extends to 10 years. The United Media Services is still young but has had a suc- The second MoU signed this month was between cessful experience since its launch,” Talaat told United Media Services and Al Arabia Outdoor Majalla.

Advertising which has emerged as the Arab world “Having this partnership would largely benefit the leader in the field of outdoor advertising.

Egyptian company and would pave the way for The company succeeded in operating 66% of the having high-budget, high-quality TV drama se- highway billboards in Saudi Arabia and in 2014 ries,” he added. the company increased its capital to 550 million During the latest holy fasting month of Ramadan, Saudi riyals.

MBC Group recorded high viewership rates as 9 In TV statements, Al-Khuraiji, President of Al of its works were included in the list of the 10 Arabia Outdoor Advertising, said that the new most-watched works in Saudi Arabia. partnership would help introduce digital, interMBC Group consolidated its leadership position active advertising billboards to Egypt and give a in the regional media market, gaining a total view- massive upgrade to this sector. ership share of about 51 percent in the Kingdom. “Egypt is still lagging behind in terms of digital In addition to its regional leadership, MBC’s advertising and having this kind of advertising digital streaming platform Shahid VIP was able in the country would boost the industry and the to achieve a global footprint as the platform ex- distribution of media content as well,” Talaat panded its international presence. said.

Subscribers are now able to enjoy watching the “It is really going to be a real game changer for the content of Shahid VIP anywhere around the Arab media and advertising industries,” he added.

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Self-pity and Shame in “29” A Song that Speaks to Divorced Women Mohammad Ali Salih – Washington Recently, People magazine published an interview with famous country singer Carly Pearce in which she said she was in love with another man -- a surprise to her millions of fans and to media observers because of her recent

famous song, “29,” which was about her divorce from her husband, country singer Michael Ray, after less than a year of marriage.

The song revived a subject discussed in major daily newspapers like the Washington Post and the New York Times, about women who divorce because of their husbands’ extra-marital affairs.

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Carly Pearce performs onstage at Nashville’s Music City Center for “The 54th Annual CMA Awards” broadcast on Wednesday, November 11, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee.

(Getty)

A few weeks ago, People and the above daily newspapers highlighted the divorce of Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder and multi-billionaire, from his wife Melinda French, who co-chaired with him their Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, after 27 years of marriage. Again, the husband’s extra-marital conduct was reported as the main reason for the divorce.

Pearce’s song, “29,” released a few months ago and soon becoming a top song on Billboard’s country songs charts, referred to Pearce’s age of 29 when she was divorced last year. She lamented that she was divorced at a young age, that she had believed in one lifetime marriage, and that she felt “shame.”

The song starts with “29, that’s when you’re supposed to find yourself … Stop calling your mom for help, 29, you start paying the mortgage instead of the rent.”

The song continues “But for me 29 is the year that I got married and divorced,I held on for dear life, but I still fell off the horse, From a Miss to a Mrs. then the other way around … And everybody says, ‘You’re only 29’ But I feel like I’m running out of time … Seems like everybody else is hanging on to it, But I swear to God, I’ve barely made my way through it, Oh 29.”

The New York Times, in a long piece about the subject, said “Marriages fall apart for many different reasons, but one of the most common and most challenging to overcome is the discovery that one partner has ‘cheated’ on the other.” It added that “Infidelity is hardly a new phenomenon. It has existed for as long as people have united as couples, married or otherwise.

Marriage counselors report that affairs sometimes occur in happy relationships as well as troubled ones.”

A report by the Association for Marriage and Family Therapy said that 15 percent of married women and 25 percent of married men have had extramarital affairs. The incidence is about 20 percent higher when emotional and sexual relationships without intercourse are included. As more women began working outside the home, their chances of having an affair have increased accordingly, the report added.

Esther Perel, a marriage counselor in New York City and author of a book, “The State of Affairs: Rethinking Infidelity,” seemed understanding,

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Pearce’s song, “29,” released a few months ago and soon becoming a top song on Billboard’s country songs charts, referred to Pearce’s age of 29 when she was divorced last year. She lamented that she was divorced at a young age, that she had believed in one lifetime marriage, and that she felt “shame.” if not encouraging. She argued that “infidelity need not result in divorce.” She went further and said that “couples that choose to recover from, and rebuild after infidelity often end up with a stronger, more loving and mutually understanding relationship than they had previously.”

Advising cheated women about “no shame” seems to be contrary to what singer Pearce said in her song and in media interviews.

But, although the author/counselor conceded that “some affairs will deliver a fatal blow to a relationship,” she seemed to resort to traditional arguments that the survival of the marriage was more important. The burden, in this case, is on the wives since, as has scientifically proven, husbands stray as twice as often as wives.

Along this line, the New York Times quoted an unnamed wife’s confessions: “At first, I wanted to kick him out. But I realized that I didn’t want to get divorced. My mother did that and she ended up raising three children alone. I didn’t want a repeat of my childhood. I wanted my son, who was then 2 years old, to have a father in his life. But I also knew that if we were going to stay together, we had to go to couples counseling.”

The wife continued: “I know I’m not perfect. I was very focused on taking care of my son, and my husband wasn’t getting from me whatever he needed. Everybody should be allowed to make mistakes and learn from them. We learned how to talk to each other and really listen. I love him

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and respect him, I’m so happy we didn’t split apart. He’s a wonderful father, a stimulating partner …”

The Washington Post, which published an interview with singer Pearce, said she did not feel only “shame” for being divorced, but also when she first thought about writing and singing “29.” But she quickly changed her mind. She said she wanted to send a message to other wives

“29,” now all-over social media, has created more questions than answers: Can a cheater ever be faithful? Can a marriage be normal after cheating? And will a cheater, if forgiven, cheat again?

(and husbands) who were cheated on.

But “29” was seen by some as full of selfpity— that it was her fault her marriage ended in a divorce, and that might be she should have tolerated her husband’s infidelity.

Pearce seemed to have put herself between a rock and a hard place. On one side, even counselors like Perel suggested that the marriage (and the children) were more important. But, on the other side, some feminist leaders, while supporting her for seeking a divorce because of her cheating husband, criticized her for the self-pity in “29.”

“29,” now all-over social media, has created more questions than answers: Can a cheater ever be faithful? Can a marriage be normal after cheating? And will a cheater, if forgiven, cheat again?

Answering the last question, Dr. Josh Klapow, a clinical psychologist, said that “The reality is that a partner who cheated once can cheat again.

That being said, a partner who never cheated can cheat for the first time at any time, too. So, the risk we take in any relationship is infidelity.”

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Singer & Songwriter Carly Pearce and then-husband Michael Ray perform at Analog at the Hutton Hotel on February 2020 ,11 in Nashville, Tennessee.

(Getty)

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Dua Lipa: An Exceptional English Singer of Kosovan Origin Majalla Illustration by Ali Mandalawi British pop singer of Albanian origin Dua Lipa slammed a full-page advertisement published in the New York times last month, which accused her and both sisters Gigi and Bella Hadid of being anti-semetic, for advocating Palestinians who were recently targeted by the recent Israeli attacks.

Lipa rejected the accusations and confirmed her stance, as she tweeted, “This is the price you pay for defending Palestinian human rights against an Israeli government whose actions both Human Rights Watch and the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem accuse of persecution and discrimination.”

During the Israeli offensive she shared via her Instagram stories a tweet from US Senator Bernie Sanders who blamed the actions of Israeli extremists for triggering another violent conflict between Israel and Palestine.

The famous pop singer and songwriter Lipa was born in London in 1995 to immigrant Albanian parents Anesa and Dukagjin Lipa from Pristina, now in Kosovo. She is the eldest to a brother and a sister. Her name is of Albanian origin which means “love” chosen upon the suggestion of her grandmother.

Lipa started singing at the age of five, and was musically influenced by her father, who was the lead singer and guitarist of the Kosovan rock band Oda. Lipa grew up in West Hamp-

stead, London. When she auditioned to enter the school choir, the teacher told her that “she could not sing.”

She moved with her family, which has Muslim heritage, to Pristina after Kosovo declared independence in 2008. There, she learned more about the Albanian language and considered a musical career. By the age of 14, she started to cover songs of famous singers and post them on YouTube and SoundCloud, such as “If I Ain’t Got You” (2004) by Alicia Keys and “Beautiful” (2002) by Christina Aguilera, which earned her initial fame.

Then, she moved back to London at age 15.

Lipa became a model for Topshop, and signed with a modelling agency, which landed her a role as a “singer” in an ITV advertisement for The X Factor in 2013, covering the song “Lost in Music” (1979).

She released her self-titled debut studio album on 2 June 2017. Her single “New Rules” became her best-selling single to date, after it was her first number one in the UK, and the first by a female solo artist to reach the top in the UK since Adele’s “Hello” in 2015.

The song also charted in the top ten of other countries, including number two in Australia, number six in the US, and number seven in Canada.

In 2019, she won the Grammy Award for Best New Artist, and her Silk City-collaboration “Electricity” won the Grammy Award for Best Dance Recording. Her 2019 single “Don’t Start Now” peaked at number two in the UK

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and US, and number four on the US Hot 100 year-end chart. Possessing a mezzo-soprano vocal range, Lipa’s music is primarily pop, and has also been described as disco, house and R&B. In an interview with the Guardian, in which the singer talks about her roots, work ethic and her view of music “as an escape”, she said, “(Pop) has to be fun. You’ve got to enjoy it.

You can’t get upset about every little thing.”

Together with her father Dukagjin, she cocreated the Sunny Hill Foundation in 2016 to raise funds to help people in Kosovo experiencing financial difficulties.

Lipa has also been the cover girl in several magazines such as Elle, British Vogue, British GQ, among others.

In February 2019, the first wax figure of Lipa was unveiled at the Madame Tussauds London, inspired by her appearance during her performance at Glastonbury Festival 2017.

Another incident in which she stirred controversy was when she tweeted a map of “Greater Albania” often associated with supporters of extreme Albanian nationalism. The map she posted included Albania, Kosovo and parts of neighboring Balkan countries and a definition of the word “autochthonous” to suggest Albanians belonged there.

Both supporters and critic reacted to the tweet, after which she issued a statement announcing that she rejected ethnic separatism and her post “was never meant to incite any hate”.

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Arabesque: An Iconic Islamic Art Form

Authentic Egyptian Art, Witness to a History Full of Ingenuity Salma Adham - Cairo Many years ago, when the machine did not control every craft and industry, Egypt was the pioneer of arabesque art. Islamic civilization was known for its unique wooden motifs inside and

outside the Arab world.

Arabesque art is considered one of the most famous and unique arts throughout history, and it was known as Arab decoration or Arab art.

It mainly consists of rhythmic linear patterns and intricate geometric patterns to decorate in-

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Medium shot for Mashrbyia of a building in Gamaliya, old Cairo, Egypt. By: Salma Adham

tersecting motifs. These motifs could be flowers, fruits, or leaves of trees. As a geometric art, Arabesque relies on repetitions for patterns and wood and metals such as copper and gold as raw materials.

These geometric shapes convey to the viewer a pleasant sense of serenity and beauty. This type of artistic expression, meant that the artist used a base unit, a leaf or a flower, deprived of its natural form so as not to give a sense of weakness and death, and transformed into stylized forms that indicate a feeling of existence and eternity.

Being one of the original arts that characterized the Arab-Islamic civilization, its origin may go back more than a thousand years. But how did it appear in Egypt and, how did the Islamic civilization introduce it?

ARABESQUE IN EGYPT AND ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION The art form can be traced to the beginning of the Fatimid era in Egypt. It is said that the many wars that the state fought forced it to use a lot of wood, which was the mainstay of the arms industry at that time, and there were plenty of scrap pieces in small pieces, which were sent to carpenters and craftsmen who in turn manufactured decorative pieces in simple geometric shapes. They used these simple shapes in the construction of windows ornamented with the wooden pieces.

Arabesque was first linked to the Islamic world by the domes of mosques and the cover of the Holy Qur’an, but it spread to shrines, mausoleums and holders where the Qur’an and books of supplications were put for reading. It became an essential feature of Arabic calligraphy with the letters known as “wooded inscriptions.”

Arabesque patterns were also used in wooden mashrabiya, which is one of the the most famous features of Islamic architecture. It is a type of projecting window enclosed with carved wood latticework located on the upper floors of a building. It is considered a part of the architectural composition, which helps the passage and distribution of light, making it soft and quiet, allowing the passage of air and facilitating looking outside without the passing eyes of the curious seeing inside.

Arabesque was not limited to furniture in Is-

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Arabesque was first linked to the Islamic world by the domes of mosques and the cover of the Holy Qur’an, but it spread to shrines, mausoleums and holders where the Qur’an and books of supplications were put for reading. lamic styles of various shapes but also related to the architectural formations of mosques and palaces. It was also used to decorate some utensils, but the most common displays of the use of it appeared in the furniture industry.

With the start of the Abbasid era, people were interested in science and translation which led to an increase in knowledge of geometric shapes, and thus the arabesque artists had a great opportunity to develop this art and to make it grow and improve.

“Almost 65 years ago since we started to learn this craft when we were children, as craftsmen, we were creative and popular, and people know us by names. Today the situation is different, there are not many people who work in this profession, and those who are working are copying more than creating,” Ahmed Dahab, arabesque craftsman and workshop owner in Old Cairo, said.

In the nineteenth century, the sultans of the Ottoman Empire in Istanbul called the Egyptian arabesque artists to decorate their palaces because of their talent, so they moved to the Levant and from there to Anatolia. The strangest thing that was narrated about these craftsmen, is that the Ottoman sultans detained them after completing their work, and they did not return to Egypt which in history known as “the capture of artists”.

Entire cities and neighborhoods in Egypt were specialized in creating arabesque works, which formed what looked like art workshops or edu-

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cational schools for this craft, but unfortunately, it began to disappear more than half a century ago.

HOW IS IT CREATED “Arabesque art” depends on the artist’s innate taste. The artist creates intertwined geometric shapes that require patience and high precision.

The few well-known arabesque artists are currently concentrated in the old Gamaliya neighborhood in Cairo, Egypt.

“Arabesque art” depends on the artist’s innate taste. The artist creates intertwined geometric shapes that require patience and high precision. The few well-known arabesque artists are currently concentrated in the old Gamaliya neighborhood in Cairo, Egypt.

The production process goes through several stages, starting with preparing the drawings for the parts to be lathed, choosing the type and size of wood required, then installing on the lathe, printing the design on wood, drilling and shaping. After completing the drilling and shaping of the wooden piece, this piece needs to be painted.

Arabesque also demands an expertise in other supporting arts such as engraving, decoration, calligraphy and painting.

“We make furniture such as desks, tables, chess boxes, chairs, tables, and boxes for the Qur’an of different sizes, and we are responsible for the part of putting different shells on the wood,” Mohamed Shibata, arabesque worker said.

Among the basic tools for the production of ancient arabesque artifacts are wood, hammer, plywood, ivory, glue, paint and finishing materials, sandpaper, drawing paper, arquette saw, meter, and other traditional tools that may be relatively outdated.

The many colors used in it give a special charm that distinguishes it from other arts. These forms are distinguished by the aesthetics of decoration, refined lines, and graceful and distinctive drawings. “Arabesque is one of the most stunning professions one can do, especially in the last

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Wide shot for arabesque decorating building windows in old Cairo, Egypt. By: Salma Adham

Photos on wall from inside an old arabesque workshop in old Cairo, Egypt.

By: Salma Adham

Close up shot for arabesque craftsman hand while working in his workshop in old Cairo, Egypt. By: Salma Adham

part which is painting the wood in which we try to show its real beauty. It is an art,” Ramy Shibata, arabesque painter stated.

“The work does not only depend on Egypt, we export to countries such as Tunisia and Morocco in North Africa and European countries such as Belgium, France, Spain and Germany,” Shibata added.

In addition to the major problems that face many old crafts in Egypt such as the few workers and facilities, the Coronavirus pandemic came to affect the arabesque industry and export as it relies to a large extent on tourism.

Among the basic tools for the production of ancient arabesque artifacts are wood, hammer, plywood, ivory, glue, paint and finishing materials, sandpaper, drawing paper, arquette saw, meter, and other traditional tools that may be relatively outdated.

“Our main problem in the industry today is the marketing. We only deal with the merchant and cannot reach the client directly. Many people stopped working in it because of the high prices of the materials which do not meet the profit we get,” Shibata said.

There is no specific literature about arabesque art, nor have its craftsmen revealed some of its secrets to the new generations, which means the art is about to be extinct. But does the origin of any art or craft disappear totally or will there always be a way that leads us to the precious start?

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Japan’s Pre-Olympics Vaccine Push Looks Too Late Mari Yamaguchi It may be too little, too late.

That’s the realization sinking in as Japan scrambles to catch up on a frustratingly slow vaccination drive less than two months before the Summer Olympics, delayed by a year because of the coronavirus pandemic, are scheduled to start.

The Olympics risk becoming an incubator for “a Tokyo variant,” as 15,000 foreign athletes and tens of thousands of officials, sponsors, and journalists from about 200 countries descend on — and potentially mix with — a largely unvaccinated Japanese population, said Dr. Ueyama Naoto, a physician and head of the Japan Doctors Union.

With infections in Tokyo and other heavily populated areas currently at high levels and hospitals already under strain

treating serious cases despite a state of emergency, experts have warned there is little slack in the system.

Even if the country succeeds in meeting its goal of fully vaccinating all 36 million elderly by the end of July — already a week into the Games — about 70 percent of the population would not be inoculated. And many have dismissed the target as overly optimistic anyway.

To meet it, Japan is vowing to soon start administering 1 million doses daily. It currently is only giving 500,000 per day, already a big improvement after Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide called on military doctors and nurses and started making legal exceptions to recruit other vaccinators in order to boost the drive.

“Vaccinations under the current pace are not going to help prevent infections during the Olympics,” Tokyo Medical

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Local residents sit near the dohyo (sumo ring) as they wait under observation after receiving a coronavirus vaccine at Ryogoku Kokugikan sumo arena on May 2021 ,24 in Tokyo, Japan. (Getty)

Association Chairman Ozaki Haruo said. “The Olympics can trigger a global spread of different variants of the virus.”

The International Olympic Committee says more than 80 percent of athletes and staff staying in the Olympic Village on Tokyo Bay will be vaccinated — and they are expected to remain largely in a bubble at the village and venues. On Tuesday, Japan started vaccinating athletes who will go to the Games, the Japanese Olympic Committee said.

But vaccination rates are not clear for others involved in the Games who are coming from abroad, including hard-hit regions, and experts warn that even strict rules won’t prevent all mingling, especially among non-athletes. Spectators from overseas have been barred.

Prominent medical journals have questioned the wisdom of pushing ahead with the Tokyo Games and the Asahi Shimbun — the country’s second-largest newspaper — has called for them to be canceled, reflecting widespread opposition to holding the Olympics now among the Japanese population.

But the government has said it’s determined to push ahead, with the viability of Suga’s leadership and geopolitical competition with rival Beijing, the next Olympics host, as well as the health of millions, on the line.

“By using a new weapon called vaccines and taking firm preventive measures, it is fully possible” to hold the Olympics safely, Suga told a parliamentary session Tuesday.

Officials are now desperately trying to think of ways to increase the shots at a time when medical workers are already under pressure treating COVID19- patients. Many say they have no extra resources to help with the Olympics, if, for instance, the boiling Japanese summer causes widespread cases of heat stroke. Some local leaders in and around Tokyo have rejected the Olympics organizers’ requests to set aside beds for athletes.

Dr. Omi Shigeru, former World Health Organization regional director and a head of a government taskforce, said it is crucial to start inoculating younger people, who are seen as likely to spread the virus, as soon as possible.

More than three months into Japan’s vaccination campaign, only 2.7 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated.

The country started its rollout with healthcare workers in mid-February, months behind many other countries because Japan required additional clinical testing here, a step many experts say was medically meaningless.

Inoculations for the elderly, who are more likely to suffer serious problems when infected, started in mid-April, but were slowed by initial supply shortages, cumbersome reservation procedures, and a lack of medical workers to give shots.

But there are signs of improvement. The vaccine supply has increased and despite earlier expectations of a hesitant response to vaccines in general, senior citizens fearful of the virus are rushing to inoculation sites.

Since May 24, Japan has deployed 280 military doctors and nurses in Tokyo and the badly hit city of Osaka. More than 33,000 vaccination sites now operate across Japan, and

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But the government has said it’s determined to push ahead, with the viability of Suga’s leadership and geopolitical competition with rival Beijing, the next Olympics host, as well as the health of millions, on the line. more are coming, said Kono Taro, the minister in charge of vaccinations.

In Sumida, a district in downtown Tokyo where boxing events will be held, vaccinations for its 61,000 elderly residents began on May 10, and within two weeks, 31 percent of them had gotten their first shots, compared to the national average of 3.7 percent. Sumida is now looking to start inoculating younger people later this month, well ahead of schedule.

Close coordination among primary care doctors, hospitals, and residents, as well as flexibility, have contributed to smooth progress, Sumida district spokesperson Yatabe Yosuke said.

“It’s like a factory line,” Yatabe said.

Suzuki Ryuichiro, a -21year-old university student in Tokyo, said he is frustrated with Japan’s lagging vaccination campaign.

“I saw that some of my friends overseas have been vaccinated, but my turn won’t come until later this summer,” he said. “The risk-averse government took extra caution even when our primary goal was to get back to normal as soon as possible.”

Kono, the vaccine minister, said more large-scale inoculation centers are getting underway, including at hundreds of college campuses and offices to start vaccinating younger people from June 21.

Beyond the concerns about the Olympics and despite the fact that Japan has seen fewer cases and deaths compared to the United States and other advanced nations, the country’s slow pace of vaccinations and its prolonged, often toothless state of emergency could also delay its economic recovery for months, said Sasaki Masaya, senior economist at the Nomura Research Institute.

And despite repeated expressions of official government confidence in the Games being safe, there are fears here of what might happen if vaccinations don’t pick up.

“The Olympics, billed as a recovery Games, can trigger a new disaster,” said Ueyama, of the Japan Doctors Union.

This article is originally published on The Diplomat.

H

ealth

Body-weight Exercises at Home No Equipment Necessary

Matthew Solan Not ready to return to the gym, post-COVID? All you need for a great all-body workout is your own body weight.

Before dumbbells, -24hour gyms, and workout videos, people exercised using only their own body weight. This is still a popular and practical choice for fitness.

“Don’t underestimate the power of moving and lifting your body weight against the force of gravity and resistance,” says Robert Correia, a physical therapist assistant with Harvard-affiliated Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital. “You can get an all-around workout by using

only your body, and the results are often comparable to using weights and workout machines.”

HOMEGROWN BENEFITS Body-weight exercises offer many unique benefits for older adults. First of all, they are versatile: you can do them anywhere and don’t need any equipment. Bodyweight training is also ideal when returning after an injury or long layoff, when you need to build endurance and confidence.

“You have greater control and comfort not having to deal with equipment,” says Correia. “You can increase or

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lower the intensity of body-weight exercises as needed by varying your pace, position, and speed.”

Another advantage: body-weight workouts can help older adults improve everyday movements. “Many exercises using body weight mirror activities like sitting up, rising from a chair, squatting to pick up something, and climbing stairs,” says Correia.

There are all kinds of body-weight exercises -- lunges, jumping jacks, sit-ups, squats, to name but a few -- and most offer variations to fit your fitness level. But here is a three-move body-weight routine to get you started.

Perform it on its own or as part of your regular workout.

PUSH-UPS

A shot of young fit man doing plank exercise at home during Coronavirus lockdown. (Getty)

The classic old-school exercise works several muscle groups at one time: the arms, chest, shoulders, and core.

Push-ups also can be modified to fit your current ability.

1. Begin in a full plank position with your arms extended, palms flat and just below shoulder level, feet together or about 12 inches apart.

2. Keep your back straight and your weight evenly distributed.

3. Look down and lower your body until your elbows are at °90 (or go to the floor to rest, if needed) and then push back up to complete one rep. Try to take two seconds to go down and one second to go up.

4. Do eight to 10 reps while maintaining good form.

(Take a break between reps, if needed.) As you improve, work toward two to three sets of 10 reps.

If this is too difficult, do a modified version from a handsand-knees position. Another option is inclined push-ups, where you place your hands on a counter or wall at a °45 angle, which puts less strain on the wrists and shoulders.

“Whether you do push-ups on the ground or against a wall or counter, go slowly and push with a force like you are trying to move a stalled car,” says Correia.

CHAIR SQUATS Squats strengthen your upper-leg and core muscles, which will improve your overall stamina and help prevent falls.

1. Sit on a chair with your feet hip-width apart. Place your hands on your thighs, by your sides, or out in front.

2. Tighten your buttocks and abdomen. Exhale and push your feet into the floor as you slowly stand up.

3. Inhale and slowly sit down. Repeat the movement eight to 10 times to complete one set and work up to three sets.

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“Don’t underestimate the power of moving and lifting your body weight against the force of gravity and resistance. You can get an all-around workout by using only your body, and the results are often comparable to using weights and workout machines.”

Make sure to move at a normal pace -- one second to rise and one second to sit. For greater intensity, slow the pace to two or three seconds each. “The more time you can spend under tension during the movement, the harder your muscles are forced to work,” says Correia. Another variation is to lower yourself until you just touch the chair seat, but don’t sit, and then stand.

STEP-UPS AND STEP-DOWNS Step-ups strengthen your legs and are similar in motion to using a leg press machine. Any type of step is suitable for performing step-ups, like the bottom step of staircase or a sturdy step stool.

1. Stand with your feet parallel, about hip-width apart, and your arms at your sides. Maintain good posture.

2. Slowly place your right foot firmly on the step or platform while keeping your torso upright. Shift your weight forward and push your right leg into the step, straighten your right leg to raise your body up, and place your left foot alongside your right foot. Hold for a second or two.

3. With your weight on your right leg, step backward with your left leg and place your left foot on the floor in its original position. Then shift your weight to your left leg and step off the platform with your right foot, returning to the starting position. This is one rep.

4. Do eight to 10 reps; then switch, so you lead with the left foot, and do another eight to 10 reps. This completes one set. Work up to three sets.

This was originally published by Harvard Men’s Health Watch.

B

ook Reviews

“From the Memory of Land and River” A History Book Series for Arab Teens

By Amira Noshokaty “Don’t know much about history” goes the famous song and, to the new generation, it is more of a statement. It could be a coincidence or a choice, but the fact remains, our children are detached from the history of their nations. Young people may know the headlines but they themselves are still out of context.

Hence the main idea that drove Dr. Ibrahim Shalaby to start one of the most interesting history books series targeting young Arabic-speaking teens.

First published by Al-Balsam Publishing House in 2020, “From the Memory of Land and River” is comprised of four books with each one following one of the world’s most ancient civilizations.

The first book titled Aziza (precious) follows the Nile River civilization. Now to tell the tales of such a rich, multi-layered and remarkably diverse civilization was no easy job. However, the talented writer and eloquent story teller used his starting point by focusing on the journey of an agricultural product. Beginning the journey with the planting of guava fruit, he walks us from the Nile headwaters in Sudan to the delta in Damietta where it gets exported. The journey is more of a tour in history. Here we sail along the Nile in tune with the famous African drumbeats that reveal African heritage with every beat. The sailboat takes us to the very spot where Prophet Moses’

crib was found. Here we reflect on the ancient Egyptian intangible heritage that is still very much in practice. Then we learn the location of Prophet Youssef, who made the first rosary in the world and how this was later developed by a Christian who added the beads according to the number of years Jesus Christ lived. The author explains that nowadays rosaries are affiliated with all religions.

Aziza is not only cleverly written, it also includes a whole visual section tracing back the ancient Egyptian art of Folk Tattoo.

The second book of the series “From the Memory of Land and River” is titled Nagham (Tunes).

Set in Iraq and following the civilization that was nourished by the water of rivers Tigris and Euphrates is an enchanting trip in itself. While the main starting point is

Covers of book series.

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Vintage engraving of Ruins of Luxor from the Nile in Ancient Egypt, 19th Century, by David Roberts. (Getty)

the dates and the ancient industry affiliated with palm trees, it is Iraq’s cultural heritage that is the main hero of this book. From Al-Basra, where the famous Sufi poetess Rabaa Al-Adawya was born, to Sibaweih, the author of the first Arabic grammar book, to the famous scientist Ibn AlHaytham, the book walks us into the heart of Arabic civilization’s golden era. Al-Haytham was known as «the Prince of Light” and was the first Arab physician to dissect the human eye. He also discovered the law of optics in general and founded the principles of the camera.

The enchantment continues when the author reveals the last destination of Sindbad’s voyages.

This visual section of the book focuses on the cultural gems from the art of Arabic calligraphy.

In his third book, Shalaby wanders about in the Land of Wonder-- India and Pakistan. Under the title “Soresh (Mango) and Rakshanda (pomegranate)” the writer drifts into a million stories entangled with enchanting folk legends and myths. Here is a very fertile land for spirituality and here the learnings of Sufi Pillar Ibn Arabi are integrated into the culture. Here myth and reality walk side by side and bow to each out of courtesy.

The visual history of this book depicts the Henna patterns and motifs.

The fourth and the latest publication of the series is titled “Gamila” (Beautiful) and reveals the beauty and heritage of the land of the Levantine. Taking the Apricot fruit as the starting point of the book,

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Portrait of Ibn al-Haytham (965 AD - 1040 AD) an Arab mathematician, astronomer, and physicist of the Islamic Golden Age

the scent of jasmine fills the air as one reflects on Damascus, the City of Jasmine. Damascus was the capital of the Umayyad state and the place with the oldest wall in the world which Prophet Noah built after the flood. Here the Sufi pillar Ibn Arabi was buried and a lot of Greek mythology took place.

The visual history of this book shows the ancient art of Shadow puppets.

History is a rich detailed documentation of the whole planet, whether it repeats itself or not, and whether it is at all true or not.