Legislative Update: Maine's High Stakes Election

BY MEGAN DIVER, MEMA VICE PRESIDENT

With all 186 legislative seats up for grabs, a reshaped political landscape is set to emerge in Maine's November 5 election—will Democrats hold their ground, or will Republicans shift the balance?

It’s been a quiet interim between the end of the legislative session and now. The November election season has started to ramp up. Social media news feeds and television commercials have been full of national political ads ahead of the November election, and now is the time that local candidates join.

On November 5, all 186 seats in the Maine Legislature will be on the ballot.

Democrats now control the 35-member Senate and 151-member House.

Whether they narrow the margins or take over one of the chambers could determine the fate of Democratic Gov. Janet Mills’ agenda in her final two years in office.

The State House halls will look dramatically different come January. That’s true not only because all 186 seats are up for election but because Senate President Troy Jackson (D-Allagash) is termed out and House Speaker Rachel Talbot Ross (D-Portland) is running for the Senate. With new leaders at both ends of the hall, change is the only certainty.

When Mainers head to the polls on November 5, they will choose a president, a U.S. senator, and two U.S. representatives. They’ll decide five state ballot questions and weigh in on local races and issues — all in addition to the Maine House and Senate races.

Currently, the House is made up of 79 Democrats, 67 Republicans, and two independents, with three vacancies. In the Senate, Democrats hold 22 seats, and Republicans control 13. Republicans last controlled the House in 2012 and the Senate in 2018.

Absentee voting will start in early October, shortening the election season for those ready to cast ballots 30 days before the November contest.

Here are some races to watch.

Maine Senate

Democrats currently hold a nine-seat majority in the 35-member Senate. Each party is leaving four seats open without an incumbent to defend them.

Democratic Senate President Troy Jackson’s District 1 seat in Aroostook County has been trending toward Republicans in recent elections. It is located in the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, which has voted for former President Donald Trump in the last two elections.

Jackson won in 2022 against Republican Sue Bernard, a former state representative and former spokesperson for the Catholic Diocese. Jackson won with 52% of the vote—a margin of about 760 votes. Bernard is running again—this time against Democrat Vaughn McLaughlin, a longtime teacher and coach.

Democrats are looking to flip the District 10 seat, which includes Brewer, Bucksport, and Hampden.

Republican incumbent Peter Lyford lost in the primary to Rep. David Haggan, R-Hampden.

Close races are also expected in two Augusta-area seats—one held by each party. Neither has an incumbent running. One of the most competitive may be District 15, which Republican Sen. Matt Pouliot of Augusta currently holds. Two sitting state representatives—Democrat Rep. Raegan LaRochelle, of Augusta, and Republican Rep. Dick Bradstreet of Vassalboro—are vying for the seat in a district that narrowly went to Trump in 2020.

Democrats are playing defense in neighboring District 16, where Democrat David LaFountaine is not seeking reelection.

Republican Rep. Scott Cyrway of Albion, who held the District 16 seat for eight years before being termed out in 2022, is running against Democrat Nathaniel White. It’s a district carried by President Biden in 2020, but Cyrway showed that in the same year, he could cut against the national political environment.

District 20 in Auburn is also in play for both parties. Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, won the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2022 against Democrat Bettyann Sheats. Brakey is not seeking reelection, and Sheats is running again. This time, it’s a three-way race with former state Rep. Bruce Bickford, R-Auburn, and independent Dustin Ward. It’s one of five three-way races in both chambers this cycle, but ranked-choice voting will not be used because the state constitution says a plurality decides state offices. Ranked-choice voting can only be used in state primaries, federal elections, and local elections if enacted by ordinance. District 20 went to Biden in 2020, which should give Sheats an advantage. However, Ward’s presence on the ballot could change the outcome this year.

Another three-way race will determine the successor for Senate Majority Leader Eloise Vitelli’s seat in District 24, which went to Biden by more than 3,000 votes in 2020. The District 24 race features Democrat Denise Tepler of Topsham, Republican Jeffrey Pierce of Dresden, and independent Suzanne Andresen of West Bath. It’s a Democratic district, but a three-way contest increases its unpredictability.

"When Mainers head to the polls on November 5, they will choose a president, a U.S. senator, and two U.S. representatives. They’ll decide five state ballot questions and weigh in on local races and issues— all in addition to the Maine House and Senate races.

Maine House Of Reprentatives

Democrats currently have a 12seat majority in the House of Representatives, controlling 79 seats, while Republicans hold 67 and independents hold two seats. Three seats are vacant.

Of the 151 seats, 35 are not being defended by an incumbent. Democrats hold 21 of those open seats, Republicans hold 13, and an independent holds one.

Democrats are poised to regain at least one seat in Aroostook County, with longtime Democratic lawmaker John Martin of Eagle Lake seeking his 28th legislative term. Martin is seeking the District 1 seat, currently held by Rep. Austin Theriault, who is challenging U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in the 2nd Congressional District race.

District 37 is currently held by Republican Rep. Reagan Paul, who won the open seat two years ago by about 235 votes. That seat was open then because Democrat Scott Cuddy did not seek reelection. Now, Cuddy is looking to regain his seat. The two candidates could not have more differing views on the issues, including renewable energy, reproductive rights, and labor unions. Paul is a staunch conservative, while Cuddy is a prolabor Democrat who leans left.

Two well-known opponents are running against each other in a district representing part of Gray and North Yarmouth. Rep. Anne Graham, D-North Yarmouth, won the District 105 seat two years ago after Republican Sue Austin was termed out. Both are seeking the seat this fall. Graham and Austin have faced off in the past. In 2008, Austin beat Graham, who turned around and beat Austin four years later when the Republican tried to come back after being termed out.

District 45 in the Midcoast region is a swing seat. Independent Jeffrey Evangelos of Friendship held that seat for four terms. Democrats picked it up after Evangelos was termed out in 2022, but Rep. Clinton Collamore, D-Waldoboro, resigned a few months after his election amid allegations that he committed fraud while qualifying for public funding for his campaign. Republican Abden Simmons of Waldoboro flipped the seat in a special election. Now Simmons is seeking reelection against Democrat Jennifer Stone of Waterboro.

A number of seats in the Sebago Lake region are also expected to go either way, including both seats representing Windham. Rep. Jane Pringle, D-Windham, is facing a tough reelection bid in neighboring District 107, a seat she won by about 135 votes two years ago. She is in a three-way race against Republican Mark Cooper of Windham and Windham independent Patrick Corey, a former Republican lawmaker who was termed out in 2022 after serving four consecutive terms. Rep. Barbara Bagshaw, R-Windham, is seeking reelection in District 106. Bagshaw won that seat two years ago by 22 votes in a race that went to a recount. Democrat Doris Poland of Windham, a longtime school bus driver and library technician, is challenging her.

Another open seat is in District 86, where incumbent Rep. Jessica Fay, D-Raymond, is termed out. Republican Rolf Olsen and Democrat Craig Messinger are running against each other for that seat. Both are from Raymond.

A lot of things are in play this election. Please remember to vote on November 5!