A Publication by the Climate Change Commission of the Philippines and the Green Growth Institute

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Training Program Modules

Volume 1

Modules 1-3

Climate-Smart

Planning and Management Training Program Modules

Volume 1 Modules 1-3

IMPRINT ABOUT THE CLIMATE CHANGE COMMISSION The Climate Change Commission, an independent and autonomous body that has the same status as that of a national government agency, is under the Office of the President of the Philippines. It is the lead policy-making body of the government which is tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate the programs and action plans of the government relating to climate change pursuant to the provisions of the Republic Act No. 9729 or the Climate Change Act as amended by Republic Act No. 10174 or the People’s Survival Fund.

ADDRESS Room 238 Mabini Hall, Malacañang Compound, San Miguel, Manila, Philippines CONTACT T: +63.2.735.3069 | 736.3144 E: info@climate.gov.ph www.climate.gov.ph ABOUT THE GLOBAL GREEN GROWTH INSTITUTE (GGGI) GGGI is a new kind of international organization — interdisciplinary, multi-stakeholder and driven by the needs of emerging and developing countries. It has been established by several forward-thinking governments to maximize the opportunity for “bottom up” (i.e., country- and business-led) progress on climate change and environmental challenges within core economic policy and business strategies. GGGI is dedicated to pioneering and diffusing a new model of economic growth in developing and emerging countries, known as “green growth,” that simultaneously targets key aspects of economic performance, such as poverty reduction, job creation and social inclusion, and those of environmental sustainability, such as mitigation of climate change and biodiversity loss and security of access to clean energy and water.

ADDRESS 19F Jeongdong Building, 15-5 Jeong-dong, Jung-gu Seoul 100-784, Republic of Korea CONTACT T: +82-2-2096-9991 F: +82-2-2096-9990 www.gggi.org

AUTHORS Lourdes Tibig, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Dr. Sharon Taylor, Coastal and Marine Specialist Dr. Glenn Paraso, Health Specialist Dr. Jake Tio, Hazard and Risk Assessment Specialist EDITORIAL AND DESIGN Marifel T. Moyano Source and Copyrights © 2013 Climate Change Commission and Global Green Growth Institute Place and date of publication Manila, Philippines November 2013 Disclaimer The views expressed herein should not be taken, in any way, to reflect the official opinion of the publishers.

Foreword The Climate Change Commission and the Global Green Growth Institute signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2011 to pursue a cooperation to promote programs and joint activities that foster collaboration in the promotion of green growth in the Philippines. Through the MOU, programs will be supported to develop and promote green growth roadmap at the local level in selected areas that is aligned with the country’s national development plan, through the integration of strategies on poverty reduction, opportunity creation and social development with economic aims with due regard for environmental goals.

The Commission leads the demonstration of the Ecotown Framework in selected pilot municipalities in the country.

The demonstration of the Ecotown Framework aims to build the adaptive capacities of the communities and increase the resilience of vulnerable sectors and natural ecosystems to climate change. The demonstration of the Ecotown Framework serves as the partnerships main goal in order to showcase a green growth development at the local/ community level.

Local communities, both rural and urban, in the Philippines have and always will be impacted by climate, whether it is an extreme rainfall event, drought, intense heat wave, or some other type of event. Scientists often debate on many things, but with certainty, the warming of the climate system is now unequivocal. We are now committed to a warming of 0.2°C every decade chiefly due to the concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions already in the atmosphere.

Climate-related disaster losses are increasing and inhibit the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and likewise, the development goals of a local municipality or city and overall that of a country. The Philippines is very vulnerable to climate change and disaster risks posed by the changing climate that manifest not only as more intensive catastrophes but also as losses, if we are not wise enough to prepare to its impacts.

What do these changes mean for our quality of life when for decades we have been planning, making decisions, and building our lives based on a stable climate?

This question led to the creation of the Climate-Smart Planning and Management Training Program Modules. These modules aim to provide local government units, planners, and/or natural resource managers with a resource and training material to assist their community’s potential vulnerabilities to climate trends and to complement other existing local development planning guidelines on how and when to incorporate the changing climate trends and its effects into their planning and projects.

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments are key for resilience strategies and climate change adaptation, as well as for building resilience to natural hazards and extreme events. Identification and understanding of the complex yet overlapping benefits of integrating both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are necessary in developing a sustainable development pathway to put transformation into place. The modules provide tools and methods for the evaluation of sector-specific risk reduction and adaptation measures–social, economic, agricultural, coastal and marine and health- that are crucial for decision-making processes.

The goal of vulnerability and adaptation assessments is to identify appropriate adaptation measures that will be implemented on the ground and will be used to guide the Comprehensive Land Use and Development Plan of the locality. Ultimately, these modules aim to find ways to best help communities become more resilient to climate change through education and planning, by reducing impacts and costs through climate change adaptation policies and procedures.

Summary In 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted that the climate system is warming and that it is most likely to human activities. The Philippines, a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) made a landmark action to address climate change through the enactment of the Climate Change Act of 2009 (Republic Act No. 9729). The Climate Change Commission (CCC) was created and established, and two of its most recent strategic outputs are the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC).

As most parts of the globe, industrialized and developing countries alike, respond to the ever increasing costs of the changing climate in terms of the adverse impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and human systems, it is increasingly becoming imperative to address climate change in all sectors and across all levels from the national to the grassroots levels. There are also opportunities for enhancing livelihood resiliency by including mitigation projects in localities where tremendous benefits could be had by developing and conserving natural resources.

The CCC has adopted the Ecotown Framework to model Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and develop Climate Change Mitigation (CCM) projects in the local levels where opportunities exist. In 2012, the CCC partnered with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) to pilot this climate risk management strategy at the level of municipalities through a Project Agreement to foster collaboration in the promotion of green growth through the demonstration of the Ecotown framework in the Municipalities of Del Carmen, Pilar, San Benito and San Isidro all in the province of Surigao del Norte and the Municipality of San Vicente in the province of Palawan.

The Training Program Modules for Climate-Smart Planning and Management are designed specifically for local government units. Basic to planning and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation is the integrated assessment of the vulnerabilities of the different sectors in the locality/area to climate change, both current and future. The integrated assessment of identified adaptation strategies includes a careful and rigorous analysis of the gaps, constraints and needs for the identified adaptation strategies/projects.

This initiative is the first of its kind at the municipal level that integrates and mainstreams climate change impacts and adaptation, together with disaster risk reduction, and greenhouse gas emission reduction in their development plans, programs and activities which will promote green growth.

It highlights how the science-side of climate change (researches, projections, tools and approaches) can be better utilized, and likewise reflect how science can better understand the way societies and sectors make decisions when they are affected by weather events and climatic variability. By providing the methods and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessments, determining different user needs and enhancing how to gather useful and clear climate information, local government units can facilitate timely, actionable and decision relevant outcomes to ensure the continued growth of key sectors in their area.

Introduction Warming of the climate system is now beyond scientific debate.

We are now committed to a warming of 0.2°C every decade chiefly due to the concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions already in the atmosphere. Our activities, as people, in the past and today continue to contribute to climate change and if climate change promises to exacerbate problems we are already facing, it is only wise to prepare for its impacts to our quality of life that is intrinsically connected to our environment and the economy. The Training Program Modules on Climate-Smart Planning and Management intend to facilitate the use of relevant climate information across different sectors, to manage risk and adapt accordingly to future climates.

The Philippines will not be spared from the impacts of climate change and is one of the most vulnerable countries to its impacts. In response to the urgency for action on climate change, the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) outlines seven strategic priorities for adaptation and mitigation till year 2028.

These priorities are food security, water sufficiency, ecological and environmental stability, human security, climate-friendly industries and services, sustainable energy and knowledge and capacity development. Adaptation is the anchor strategy of the country, while mitigation actions are pursued as a function of adaptation to pursue green and climatesmart development that ensures improved adaptive capacity of communities, resilient natural ecosystems and environment and healthy economy.

The Training Program Modules for ClimateSmart Planning and Management are meant to aid municipalities and cities in the Philippines to understand the basics on the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation and disaster risk reduction activities with tools on how to integrate vulnerability assessments.

These assessments help to determine what and who

are likely to be most at risk in their area and start the process of working with communities to determine where a more thorough review of vulnerability may be needed. This guidebook provides the sources of relevant and necessary data from national government agencies as well as selected methods and tools for vulnerability assessments to enable careful and rigorous identification and analysis as well as how to implement and monitor adaptation strategies/projects.

This three-volume guidebook, composed of 11 modules can be found at: www.climate.gov.ph

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Volume 2

Modules 4-9

Module 4 Risk and vulnerability assessment

Module 5 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Social-economic

Concepts, theories and practices: Disaster Risk Assessment

Development of socioeconomic scenarios

Using the Disaster Risk Assessment Conducting the hazard assessment Exposure and vulnerability assessments to the hazards

Stakeholder consultation Analysis • Socio-economic Vulnerability Model • Calculation of vulnerability score Recommendations

Consequence analysis, risk estimation and risk evaluation

Volume 1 Modules 1-3 ....necessary basics Module 1 Climate-smart Planning and Management: An overview Institutional frameworks and policy setting • The Millennium Development Goals connection • The CCA and DRR Agendas About Climate-Smart Planning and Management • Principles • Integral element: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments • Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into the development planning and management

Module 2 All about climate change Why is climate important The difference between climate change and global warming How are greenhouse gases related to climate change Natural causes alone cannot explain recent changes in climate, human causes can explain these changes The Earth’s climate is changing.

It is real.

Signals of climate change in the Philippines Negative effects globally and locally The projections

Module 3 Linking climate change adaptation to disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation and mitigation The basics: Disaster risk reduction The elements of disaster risk reduction The link: Climate change increases disaster risk Understanding risks Overview of hazards in the Philippines CCA & DRR: The benefits, similarities and differences Consequences of lack of convergence

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Module 6 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Agriculture

Module 7 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Coastal and Marine

Module 8 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Health

Setting purpose and scope

Determine baselines

Data gathering

Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development

Identifying health vulnerability in an area

Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment roll-out Analysis of data and outputs of roll-outs Examples of adaptation options

Analysis

Conduct analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative • The Adaptive Capacity Checklist

Module 9 Cross-sectoral integration Cross-sector and multi-sector integration Recommendations • Vulnerability and adaptation crosssector integration • Prioritization of adaptation options

Analysis Validation

....Practical “How to’s” Volume 3 Modules 10-11

Module 10 Integration of climate-smart initiatives into the local development planning and budgeting processes Institutional assessment tool • Identification of gaps • Sectoral impacts of disaster • Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Challenges (SWOC) • Ready-to-use Guide Questions

....the action

Prioritization of issues and solutions through the Vulnerability Indexes Avenues for integration

Module 11 Monitoring and Evaluation Defining monitoring and evaluation Stages in project cycle Community-based Monitoring and Evaluation / Participatory Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning tool

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Table of contents Module

1

Module

2

Climate-smart Planning and Management: An overview Module objectives

15

Institutional frameworks and policy setting • The Millennium Development Goals connection • The CCA and DRR Agendas

15 15 18

About Climate-Smart Planning and Management • Principles • Integral elements: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments • Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into the development planning and management processes

20 18 21

22

All about climate change Module objectives

27

The climate is a system

27

Why is climate important

28

The difference between climate change and global warming

28

How are greenhouse gases related to climate change

29

Natural causes alone cannot explain recent changes in climate, human causes can explain these changes

29

The Earth’s climate is changing. It is real

33

Signals of climate change in the Philippines

34

The projections • Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Projected change in seasonal mean temperatures in the Philippines • Projected change in rainfall in the Philippines

36 37 38

What to expect in the 21st century

39

Impacts of climate change to people and natural systems

40

11

Volume 1 Modules 1-3 ....necessary basics Module

3

Linking climate change adaptation to disaster risk reduction Introduction and module objectives

45

Climate change adaptation and mitigation

45

The basics: Disaster risk reduction • The elements of disaster risk reduction • The Hyogo Framework

47 47

The link: Climate change increases disaster risk • Understanding risks • Risk reduction • General approaches for risk reduction • Sample scenarios • Risk assessment • Hazard • Overview of hazards in the Philippines • Exposure • Vulnerability • Adaptive capacity • Risk factor in development planning

48 49 50 50 51 55 57 57 59 59 59 59

Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: the benefits, similarities and differences

60

Consequences of lack of convergence

62

Examples of DRR/ CCA strategies

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module 1

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Module

1

Climate-Smart Planning and Management: An overview Module objectives Introduce the institutional frameworks and policies supporting Climate-Smart Planning and Management

Introduction to the purpose, principles and components of Climate-Smart Planning and Management

Institutional frameworks and policy setting

Figure 1.1. Linkages between the national development policy scope to the Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Agendas

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) connection Increasing climate-related disaster losses inhibit the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) relating to schools, hospitals, water, sanitation and poverty reduction. Magnified risk

manifests not only as more intensive catastrophes but as an increasing number of high-frequency, lowseverity losses, almost all associated with climaterelated hazards.

In developing countries, these losses are generally not insured and imply a constant leakage of

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CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROGRAM MODULES

Figure 1.2. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Framework Source: NDRRMC

CLIMATE CHANGE • Increasing temperatures • Changing rainfall patterns • Sea-level rise • Extreme weather events

IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY

CLIMATE PROCESS DRIVERS

• Energy • Transport • Land Use Change & Forestry • Agriculture • Waste

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

• Ecosystems (River Basins, Coastal and Marine, Biodiversity) • Food security • Water resources • Human health • Infrastructure • Energy • Human security

Goal: To build the adaptive capacity of communities and increase resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation opportunities towards sustainable development

SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

ADAPTATION MITIGATION

• Energy Efficiency and Conservation • Renewable Energy • Environmentally-sustainable Transport • Sustainable Infrastructure • National REDD+ Strategy • Waste Management

• Enhanced Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments • Integrated Ecosystem-Based Management • Climate-Responsive Agriculture • Water Governance and Management • Climate-responsive Health Sector • Disaster Risk Reduction Management

CROSS-CUTTING STRATEGIES • CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT • KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT • IEC AND ADVOCACY

• GENDER MAINSTREAMING • RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION • MULTI-STAKEHOLDER • PARTNERSHIPS • FINANCING

Figure 1.3. The National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010-2022) Source: Climate CHange Commission

• VALUATION • POLICY, PLANNING AND MAINSTREAMING

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

• • • • • •

Food Security Human Security Sustainable Energy Water Sufficiency Environment and Ecological Stability Climate-Smart Industries and Services

Figure 1.4. The National Climate Change Action Plan (2011-2028) outlines the Philippine Agenda for adaptation and mitigation. Identified in the Action Plan are seven strategic priorities.

Source: Climate change commission

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Climate Change Resilient Communities and Local Economy

Vulnerable Population

Ecosystembased Management

Innovative Financing

Economic Activities

Climate Change Impacts and Risks

Ecosystem Services

Bundle of assistance to improve climate change resilience

Social Protection & Risk Sharing Public-PrivatePartnership National-Local Government Cost Sharing Technical Assistance on adaptation and mitigation technologies; ecosystem management

Figure 1.5. Ecotown Framework Source: Climate change commission

resources from development budgets to deal with relief and reconstruction as well as steadily eroding livelihoods, rendering vulnerable countries more vulnerable. From another perspective, the cost of disasters may be interpreted as resources diverted from needed development activities. In 2008, the National Economic and Development Authority estimated the average cost of direct damage from natural disasters from 1970 to 2006 at PhP15 billion (2000 prices). Direct damage covers damage to agricultural crops, public infrastructure and private homes. This is equivalent to a 0.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) due to typhoons alone every year.

The CCA and DRR Agendas In response to the issues caused by both disaster and climate risks, the Philippines enacted two laws: Republic Act No. 9729 (R.A .9729), Climate Change Act

of 2009, in October 2009 and Republic Act No. 10121 (R.A. 10121), Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, in May 2010.

The Climate Change Act of 2009 created and mandated the Climate Change Commission (CCC) to mainstream climate change, in synergy with disaster risk reduction, into national, sectoral and local development plans and programs. The country has formulated its framework strategies and actions towards adaptation and mitigation. The Climate Change Act recognizes the LGUs as the frontline agencies in the formulation, planning and implementation of climate change action plans in their respective areas to formulate their Local Climate Change Action Plan, consistent with the provisions of the Local Government Code, the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010-2022) (Figure 1.3) and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) (Figure 1.4). The NCCAP aims to address the urgent and immediate needs and

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Introduction

concerns of the Philippines relating to the adverse effects of climate change to vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, human and infrastructure services.

The NCCAP is based from an assessment of the current situation of the country with regard to climate change risks and outlines strategic direction for 2011 to 2028 as a response to the current situation and projected impacts. The NCCAP outlines the agenda for adaptation and mitigation.

The CCC has adopted the Ecotown Framework (Figure 1.5) to model Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and develop Climate Change Mitigation (CCM) projects in the local levels where opportunities exist.

Ultimate goal of the Ecotown is to build the adaptive capacities of women and men in their communities, increase the resilience of vulnerable sectors and natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation opportunities towards gender- responsive

and rights-based sustainable development.

The Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act (R.A. 10121), on the other hand, was enacted to deal specifically with disaster risks with the creation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) to oversee the implementation of the law. The Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction in the Philippines: Strategic National Action Plan (SNAP) 2009-2019, detailing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) roadmap based on the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA), was adopted by Executive Order 888 in June 2010. This was substantiated with a National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Framework (NDRRMF) (Figure 1.2) which was adopted in June 2011. The national Disaster Risk Management (DRM) framework as contained in the NDRRMF calls for the strengthening of system, including risk assessment and hazard/ vulnerability mapping among others.

It also encourages mainstreaming DRM in local development plans and sectoral development plans.

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About Climate-Smart Planning and Management Most local governments plan for the future by examining trends from the past. Scientific projections for how our climate is changing indicate that those historical patterns and trends can no longer be relied upon exclusively to improve future resiliency.

Understanding the basics on climate variability and climate impacts and projections are not enough to empower a community towards climate change adaptation.

It is necessary to understand the how and why we are affected to enable Local Governments to retool their planning processes to integrate science, technological and policy opportunities to be truly prepared for climate change.

Climate-Smart Planning is envisioned to aid local municipalities in meeting the challenges of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Among these are extreme poverty eradication, gender equality and women empowerment, access to health services (especially, mothers and children), environmental sustainability, and global partnership for development.

UTILIZE NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL CLIMATE STUDIES

CONDUCT LOCAL VULNERABILITY / RISK ASSESSMENTS

DEVELOP CROSSSECTORAL STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS IMPACTS BUILD CAPACITY

INTEGRATE STRATEGIES INTO LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS PRIORITIZE/ IMPLEMENT ACTIONS

MONITOR, EVALUATE AND ADJUST STRATEGIES

Principles Strengthen collaboration and coordination between and among stakeholders and the Local Government Units (LGUs) as closer integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, along with the incorporation of both into local, sub-national and national development policies and practices could provide benefits at all scale.

Integrate knowledge of changing risks (and uncertainties) into planning, policy and program design to reduce the vulnerability of the communities and exposure of their lives and livelihood.

Forge stronger partnerships between the LGUs and the stakeholders (public and private) not just for joint coordination and collaboration in the decisionmaking, but also to enable the access of the people to basic services and productive resources.

Periodically assess the current and potential impacts of climate change on people’s lives, livelihoods and environment.

Incorporate all non-climate stressors which could influence the vulnerability of sectors/communities.

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Integral elements: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments Climate-Smart Planning is based on the following: Climate-related hazards and risks assessment and mapping, with considerations for disaster risk reduction.

Impact and vulnerability assessments using the Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA) if there are no long-term weather and climate data, and also no sectoral data to allow estimation of statistical relationships between the weather/climate and sectoral outputs/events. For example, in the agriculture sector, long-term data on crop damages/losses and/or crop yields could be correlated with longterm weather data. These relationships (although not to be interpreted as linear) could serve as a guide to what could be expected in the future.

Assessment of future vulnerabilities Climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050 (produced by the PAGASA) detailing changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather event occurrences in these two time frames are to be considered and applied.

Sectors to be assessed are prioritized on the basis of the types of resources present in the municipalities and the identified climate risks that could affect the municipalities. For instance, if the municipality is situated along the coasts, prioritized sectors should include marine and coastal resources. In almost all cases, water resources, agriculture and health sectors are also prioritized.

Promote regular data and information sharing to strengthen capacities to implement climate risk reduction initiatives, particularly in enhancing livelihoods.

Ensure flexible climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and that there are regular feedback mechanisms to institute monitoring, evaluation and review.

A validation of these assessments is carried out to enable the stakeholders to appreciate and assess the accuracy of the information indicated in the outputs of these assessments. It is necessary that an integration of the vulnerability assessments across all the sectors be incorporated in order to maximize the opportunities and benefits and avoid maladaptation.

The planning and prioritization of adaptation and mitigation strategies will be based on what the stakeholders consider most important to address their vulnerabilities and enhance their livelihoods and well-being, using a set of criteria such as ease of implementation, cost-benefit, adequacy of strategies to address the vulnerabilities and social acceptance.

Institute a system for revision of plans, programs and projects for climate risk reduction

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Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation integration into the development planning and management processes For sustainable and climate-smart planning, the Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) must incorporate both disaster and climate risks. An essential element in the conduct of a Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment is to understand the underlying hazards and risks. This can be achieved by undertaking a Disaster Risk Assessment .

Put simply, both disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) must be mainstreamed into the planning process. Figure 1.6 illustrates the current integration of Disaster Risk Assessment into the local development planning process as provided for by the NEDA’s Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and Land Use/Physical Planning in the Philippines, adopted in 2009. Figure 1.7 describes the inclusion of vulnerability and adaptation assessments to enrich the Four-Step DRA Process in the said Guideline.

The Climate-Smart Planning and Management Training Program modules are intended to help users prepare plans that are more sustainable and disasterresilient as well as climate risk-sensitive.

The Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and Land Use/ Physical Planning in the Philippines

This Guideline by NEDA-UNDP-EU, is a tool for enhancing regional and provincial planning analyses by introducing vulnerability and risk factors brought about by the natural hazards that are affecting key elements of planning environment.

The Guideline is available at www.neda.gov.ph Features of the Guideline Multi-hazard coverage • Geologic • Hydro-meteorological Focus on the Provinces • Hazard prone and contiguous areas affecting several local government (within and among Provinces) • Lifelines (e.g., access roads, power, communication, hospitals) Possible integration of Program, Projects and Activities (PPAs) • Participation of LGUs/ Communities • “Sum of Province” concept

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Figure 1.6. Current framework of Disaster Risk Assessment Integration into Local Development Planning Source:NEDA

Figure 1.7. Integration of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment into the current Disaster Risk Assessment Methodology Source: Climate CHange Commission

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module 2

VOLUME 1 MODULE 2 ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

Module

2

All about climate change Module objectives Provide an orientation on the science of climate change. It presents an introduction on how climate is a system, why climate is important, why climate change is happening, what and how are human activities contributing to the changing climate and how much these emissions are changing and contributing to global temperature increases.

Present how climate change is being manifested in the Philippines (in terms of increases in mean maximum and minimum temperatures during the last 59 years, trends of extreme events)

Some observed impacts across to people and the environment both globally and in the Philippines.

Projections on what to expect in the future in terms of the changing climate.

Concepts of vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are also explained. These are important to convey the need for the vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

The climate is a system The climate is a system, and it is a complex one (Figure 2.1). Climate is the average condition of the weather over several decades, as exemplified by such characteristics as temperature, wind velocity, and rain. It has five parts: the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice cover, the oceans and other bodies of water and living things.

These parts that make up our climate system are constantly interacting with each other- one change in one part affects the other and how the system functions overall.

For instance, changes in the atmosphere result to changes in the atmospheric circulation which in turn defines the weather. The interplay of the components leads to changes in the hydrologic or water cycle. Changes in the winds and other factors lead to changes in the ocean circulation. Changes in the cryosphere (e.g., snow, frozen ground, sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) lead to changes in the weather and climate. Changes in/on the land surface (e.g., orography, land use, vegetation and ecosystems) will all lead to changes in the weather/climate that we experience.

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Figure 2.1. Schematic view of the components of the climate system, their processes and interactions Source: IPCC FAQ 1.2

Why is climate important Climate affects the day to day activities of every living thing. We, as a society, have grown accustomed to certain range of conditions necessary to function, live, thrive and we would be sensitive to sudden or extreme changes outside this range. Changes in regional climatic patterns, such as the variability and extremes of rainfall or wind speeds, may alter the climate of other regions at both local or global scales.

This could bring increased risk of flooding or wind storms to some regions, while others may face more serious and frequent droughts or drop in wind speeds.

These changes that the changing climate brings can affect our water supplies, agriculture, power and transportation systems, the natural environment, and even our own health and safety.

The difference between climate change and global warming Climate change is the shift in long-term, global weather patterns mainly attributed to human action; it’s not exclusive to warming or cooling. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines it as a change of climate which is attributed directly and indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere, and which is in addition to natural climate variability over the comparable periods of time.

Climate change includes any changes in regional climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind and severe weather events resulting from different factors, like deforestation or an increase in greenhouse gases.

Global warming is one type of climate change, and it refers to the overall warming of the planet or the increase in surface temperatures due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (enhanced greenhouse effect).

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT VOLUME CLIMATE-SMART 1 MODULEPLANNING 2 ALL ABOUT AND CLIMATE MANAGEMENT CHANGE

How are greenhouse gases related to climate change Greenhouse gases are an essential component of a liveable planet. The Earth is covered by a blanket of gases which allows energy from the sun to reach the Earth’s surface, where some of this is converted to heat energy. Most of the heat is re-radiated towards space, with some re-radiated towards the ground by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If there were no greenhouse gases, the Earth would be one big, lifeless ball of ice.

For many years now, humans have been causing greenhouse gas levels to increase so quickly that it’s causing the average global temperature to rise much faster than it would naturally. Human activities (e.g., burning fossil fuels, agriculture and land clearing) are generating more greenhouse gases. This greater concentration of greenhouse gases traps more heat and raise the Earth’s surface temperature. (Figure 2.2)

NATURAL

The Greenhouse Effect keeps our planet liveable

Natural causes alone cannot explain recent changes in climate, human causes can explain these changes Some human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in the Earth’s atmosphere in terms of the greenhouse gases, aerosols and cloudiness. Human activities that cause increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases include those which lead to emissions of carbon dioxide.

There are natural and human-induced sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Human-induced are those that result from use of fossil fuels, transport, industries, and most importantly, land use change, such as deforestation or conversion of vegetation areas to other uses, such as for residential use.

Figure 2.3 shows the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides emissions respectively from the 1850s, the start of industrialization. Through the thousand of years, the estimated/observed concentrations had been steady until the start of the industrialization period.

ENHANCED

Greater concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities will trap more heat and raise the Earth’s temperature.

Figure 2.3. The graph shows increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides emissions from years 0 to 2005.

Source: CLimate Change 2007: IPCC 2007-WG1, Chapter 2, faq 2.1, figure 1

Figure 2.2. Greenhouse effect vs. Enhanced Greenhouse effect Source: environment.act.gov.au

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As shown in Figure 2.4, GHG emissions caused by human activity contribute to climate change. The use of electricity and heat, for example, is responsible for 25% of global GHG emissions. The destruction and degradation of forests contribute roughly 12%.

Human activities that cause increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases include those which lead to emissions of carbon dioxide. There are natural and human-induced sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Human- induced are those that result from use of fossil fuels, transport, industries, and most importantly, land use

Figure 2.4. Global Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

Sources: Congressional Budget Oce based on information from the World Bank; World Resources Institute; Resources for the Future and Climate Advisers; and LTS International. For more detailed information and citations, see Congressional Budget Oce, Deforestation and Greenhouse Gases (January 2012).

Authors: Jonathan Schwabish, Natalie Tawil, and Courtney Grith

VOLUME 1 MODULE 1 ABOUT CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

change, such as deforestation or conversion of vegetation areas to other uses, such as for residential use.

Other human activities result to emissions of methane, such as from flooded rice agriculture, livestock production, particularly ruminant animals such cows and carabaos, and also from waste management systems such as landfills.

Human-induced sources of nitrous oxides are the use nitrogen-based fertilizers and pesticides, and the use of certain chemicals in industries. On the other hand, sources of hydrofluoro-carbons are coolants, sealants and insulations.

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Figures 2.5 and 2.6 show in more graphical details, the different greenhouse gases and their sources, emitted from human-caused activities globally (Figure 2.5) and in the Philippines (Figure 2.6). Overall, these greenhouse gases addition in the atmosphere, lead to larger, faster rates of temperature increases.

Figure 2.5. GHG Emission from human-caused activities (Global) Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC

Figure 2.6. Overall Year 2000 GHG Emission per sector (Philippines) Source: second NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

VOLUME 1 MODULE 2 ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

The Earth’s climate is changing. It is real.

The most recent global assessment, as published in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), affirms that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Three of the highlights (Figure 2.7) of the IPCC AR4 are that: • Warming of the climate system is now beyond scientific debate • There is widespread melting of snow and ice, and global sea levels are rising • We are now committed to a warming of 0.2°C every decade due to the concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions already in the atmosphere

Figure 2.7. Changes in temperature, sea level and Northern Hemisphere snow cover

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data; and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {WGI FAQ 3.1 Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13, Figure SPM.3}.

Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC

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Signals of climate change in the Philippines Here in the Philippines, changes are no less being observed/experienced.

• • • •

•

Increased temperature Erratic rainfall patterns Increased typhoons Preferred tracks of tropical cyclones changing, more intense and destructive More floods

• • • • •

Frequent droughts Frequent heatwaves Reduced biodiversity Crop failure Increased health risks

Figure 2.8. Observed mean temperature anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010). The graph shows an increase of 0.648°C from 1951-2010 (60 years) Source: Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines, 2011 PAGASA/DOST

Figure 2.9. Number of extreme tropical cyclone/typhoon (150 kph and above) (1971-2010) Source: Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines, 2011 PAGASA/DOST

VOLUME 1 MODULE 2 ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

The Philippines is very vulnerable to climate change, according to the Second National Communication of the Philippines to the UNFCCC. There are a number of reasons for this high vulnerability: • Country’s high exposure to accelerated sea level rise (34,000 kilometers of coastline) • High dependence on agriculture and fisheries (a greater part is subsistence) • Numerous observed and projected impacts of increasing temperatures and extreme weather/ climate events • Threatened marine resources which are extensive • Threats to public health (higher incidences of temperature- related illnesses and diseases) • Non-climate stressors (compounding the effects of changing climate): limited access to resources, high population growth, degraded environment and others

Changes we should be expecting are El Niño Southern Oscillation events, droughts and heat waves, floods, changed character of tropical cyclones and attendant storm surges. These could be potentially destructive and are more likely to become more so in the future as temperature continues to increase.

The PAGASA’s findings point out a 0.648°C increase in the mean temperature during the 60 years (19512010), and the significant trends in the number of hot days and warm nights and decreasing trend of the number of cold days and cool nights.

There also are increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall (there are more intense daily rainfall and also, more frequent).

However, there are no trends observed in terms of the number of tropical cyclones.

Damage in Billion of Pesos (1984-2009)

Figure 2.10. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.

Source: Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines, 2011 OFFICE of CIVIL DEFENSE - DOST

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The projections There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global greenhouse gas GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.

Figure 2.11. Schematic illustration of the SRES scenarios

The four scenario families are shown, very simplistically, as branches of a two-dimensional matrix. Each scenario is based on a common specification of the main driving forces such as population, economy, technology, energy, landuse and agriculture.

Source: Fuelling Future Emissions – Examining Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks Used in Climate Models, 2011, Mikael Höök Uppsala University, Sweden. Adapted from SRES (2000).

Figure 2.12. Global GHG emissions (in GtCO2-eq per year) in the absence of additional climate policies Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) The SRES refers to the scenarios or explored “storylines” in what could be options or alternative development pathways in the future, given that global greenhouse gas emission continues to grow over the next few decades and there are no additional climate policies above current ones. These pathways cover a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions.

The emissions projections are widely used in the assessments of future climate change, and their underlying assumptions with respect to socioeconomic, demographic and technological change serve as inputs to many recent climate change vulnerability and impact assessments.

A1 storyline assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in midcentury and rapid introduction of new and more

efficient technologies. A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B).

B1 Describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy.

B2 Describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasising local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

A2 Describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change. No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES scenarios.

VOLUME 1 MODULE 2 ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

Figure 2.13. Climate projections for the Philippines (2020, 2050, 2100) Source: Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines, 2011 PAGASA/DOST

Projected change in seasonal mean temperatures in the Philippines The IPCC SRES scenarios contain various driving forces of climate change, including population growth and socio-economic development. These drivers encompass various future scenarios that might influence greenhouse gas sources and sinks, such as the energy system and land use change. The evolution of driving forces underlying climate change is uncertain. This results in a very wide range of possible emissions paths of greenhouse gases.

Climate scientists, using climate change scenarios into the far future (up to 2100) are reporting outputs of these models which indicate there are projected increases of from 1.1°C (conservative) to as much as 6.4°C during the present century. For warming over the next two decades, an increase of 0.2°C per decade is projected.

The PAGASA/DOST has also developed climate scenarios for the Philippines for the years 2020, 2050, 2100.

The key findings (Figure 2.13) for projected change in seasonal mean temperatures, under the mediumrange emissions scenario, are: Year 2020 Under B2 Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 0.1°C to 0.9°C. Under A1B Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 0.8°C to 1.3°C. Under A2 Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 0.5°C to 0.9°C. Year 2050 Under B2 Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 0.9°C to 1.6°C. Under A1B Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 1.5°C to 2.6°C. Under A2 Emission Scenario: Seasonal temperature is projected to increase between 1.2°C to 2°C.

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Figure 2.14. Monthly rainfall projections for medium-range emission scenario (A1B) By Climate type Source: Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines, 2011 PAGASA/DOST

Projected change in rainfall in the Philippines The PAGASA/DOST has also developed the projected change in rainfall in the Philippines for the years 2020, 2050, 2100.

The key findings (Figure 2.14) for projected change in rainfall, under the medium-range emissions scenario, are: Year 2020 Under B2 Emission Scenario The projection indicated that reduction of seasonal rainfall over Luzon for the months (DecemberJanuary-February; March-April-May; June-JulyAugust).

Under A1B Emission Scenario The projection indicated that climate change will probably lead to an active southwest monsoon in Luzon and Visayas as evident in future increases in rainfall (June-July-August, September-OctoberNovember) in 2020.

A downward trend is likely in Mindanao as indicated in the reduction in seasonal rainfall in months March-April-May; June-July-August; and SeptemberOctober-November.

Under A2 Emission Scenario The projection indicated that dry season will be longer as shown by reductions in rainfall from September-October-November; December-JanuaryFebruary and March-April-May in most parts of the country. June-July-August is projected to be wetter than normal in Southern Luzon and Visayas in 2020 as indicated by increases in rainfall from 9 to 28.

Year 2050 Under A1B Emission Scenario The drier season of March-May will become drier, while the weather seasons of June-August and September-November become wetter as indicated in the increases in rainfall becoming greater in 2050.

Under A2 Emission Scenario Projections on rainfall in 2050 indicate substantial reductions in rainfall during the seasons December to February, September to November and March to May in most parts of the country also becoming greater with time.

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What to expect in the 21st century There are three important climate attributes that could undergo drastic changes, which are: • Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights and more heat waves over land areas (extremely probable) • More frequent rainfall events (that is, more intense rain events) resulting in • Increased flooding events, soil erosion and land/mud slides (highly probable); and increase on tropical cyclone wind and rainfall intensities in some areas (medium confidence).

It is also being projected that more intense El Niño-like conditions and thus, El Niñorelated droughts and floods are expected in many different regions all over the globe (medium confidence). Moreover, human-induced warming and the attendant sealevel rise would continue for centuries. We now have a long-term commitment to climate change and sea-level rise because of the long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.

Globally.

Locally.

Melting (and possible disappearance) of glaciers and mountain snow caps that feed the world’s rivers and supply a large portion of the fresh water used for drinking and irrigation.

Climate: Increasing temperatures/rainfall & intensity of extreme climate events: floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges,intense monsoon rains, droughts/ENSO and unpredictable weather patterns

A rise in sea levels due to the melting of the landbased ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, with many islands and coastal areas ending up more exposed to storm damage or even underwater.

Coastal: 10cm/decade sea-level rise (SLR) in some coastal cities; Some areas already partially inundated; Under a projected SLR of 100cm, an estimated 2 million people could be displaced; aggravated flooding in low-lying areas; saltwater intrusion; coastal erosion; frequent toxic red tides; out-migration of fish means decreased catch; coral bleaching means loss of fish habitats and hence fish stocks; increasing acidity of the seas means loss of calcification capacities of coral reef and shellfish

Increased risks to coastal communities through sealevel rise and threats of storm surges and floods.

Increasingly costly “bad weather” events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and severe storms.

Changes in marine/forests resources and damage to coral reefs.

Vulnerable livelihoods due to decrease in crop yields/ farm productivity and/or fish catch.

Lowered agricultural productivity due to less favorable weather conditions, less available irrigation water, increased heat stress to plants, and an increase in pest activity due to warmer temperatures.

Increases in diseases that are water-based and vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria.

Large numbers of extinctions of higher-level species due to their inability to adapt to rapidly changing climate and habitat conditions.

Agriculture: Lowered agricultural production due to more frequent droughts with ENSO events (A 1°C rise in temperature leads to a 0.6 ton (or 15%) drop in rice yield per hectare); Floods associated with La Niña; and increased pest/disease incidence Freshwater: Higher temperature means higher irrigation demand due to higher evaporation rate; Western Luzon – increasing rainfall; Eastern Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao – decreasing rainfall which means less groundwater; saltwater intrusion due to prolonged droughts Health: Increased incidence/epidemics of: vector & water-borne diseases; disruptions of environmental health services & infrastructures during disasters Biodiversity: Increased extinction rate of some species; decrease in ecosystem stability; distribution patterns of many species and communities will change

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Impacts of climate change to people and natural systems Impacts of climate change are varied and profound - decreasing crop yields, and sometimes inability to farm when the rains are not there and no irrigation services are available, decreasing fish catch, and the resulting vulnerable livelihoods, that could certainly lead to increasing poverty levels.

There will be increased risks to human health because there will be higher susceptibility to water-based and vector-borne diseases, and malnutrition because of diminished financial capacity. There will also be increased risks to coastal communities through the non-linear sea-level rise and the threats of storm surge and flooding. Lastly, communities will be under siege due to the complex interplay of these climate and, also, non-climate stressors.

As for natural systems, there will be changes in both marine (coral reefs and the different fishes) / forest (die-backs of vulnerable forest species) resources.

People are affected

Natural systems are affected

• Decreasing crop yields/ inability to farm productively • Decreasing fish catch • Vulnerable livelihoods • Increasing poverty levels through diminishing incomes • Enhanced risks to health (susceptibility to waterbased and vector-borne diseases/ malnutrition, etc.)

• Increased risk to coastal communities through sea-level rise and threats of storm surges and floods • Communities under siege due to complex interplay of climate and non-climate stressors

• Changes in crop phenology/ growing seasons • Changes in life cycles of species/ animals • Changes in species • Changes in marine/ forest resources • Damage to coral reefs

VOLUME 1 MODULE 2 ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

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Photo by Desiree Llanos Dee

Figure 2.15. Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change. Illustrative examples of global impacts projected for climate changes (and sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase in global average surface temperature in the 21st century [T20.8]. The black lines link impacts, dotted arrows indicate impacts continuing with increasing temperature. Entries are placed so that the left-hand side of the text indicates the approximate onset of a given impact. Quantitative entries for water stress and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change relative to the conditions projected across the range of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. Adaptation to climate change is not included in these estimations. All entries are from published studies recorded in the chapters of the Assessment. Confidence levels for all statements are high.

Source: IPCC Fourth assessment report 2007

Photo by Desiree Llanos Dee

module 3

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Module

3

Linking climate change adaptation to disaster risk reduction Module objectives Increase understanding of adaptation and disaster risk reduction concepts, synergies and differences

Introduce the concept of risk, vulnerability, hazards, exposure and adaptive capacity

Climate change adaptation and mitigation

Figure 3.1. Schematic framework representing human-caused drivers, impacts and responses to climate change and their linkages Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC

Climate change adaptation Adaptation deals with strengthening human and natural systems to withstand the effects of climate change. It is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic occurrences or their effects, which reduces harm or takes advantages of beneficial opportunities.

For people, it means being ready for climate change by building capacity and putting measures in place to cope with and recover from the impacts of climate change. It also means preparing ourselves to live with any climate-induced change to our surroundings.

In Module 1, it is defined as placing measures/

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strategies to minimize the adverse impacts and/or take advantage of potential benefits by rigorous analysis of the observed impacts and vulnerabilities and mainstreaming climate change issues and concerns in development plans, projects and programs.

We can adapt to climate change. There are two main reasons: to minimize adverse impacts and to take advantage of any potential benefits (positive impacts such as carbon fertilization in which crop growth increases, thereby, increasing yields). We can do this by doing a rigorous analysis of impacts and vulnerabilities and mainstreaming climate change issues and concerns in our development plans, projects and programs.

Climate change mitigation

The other type of response is climate change mitigation. It is about reducing human impact on the climate system. It involves measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, by limiting activities that produce greenhouse gases, or to enhance the natural systems or sinks that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Without mitigation, climate change would continue unchecked and would eventually outstrip all our efforts to adapt.

We implement activities to reduce/avoid greenhouse gas emissions. There are a number of strategies for mitigation, such as the use of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind and hydro), use of energy- efficient technologies, changing lifelong habits that will result to energy saving, or changes in the farming systems such as organic farming and others.

Adjusting our lifestyles

Below are some small steps we can do in our day to day activities that can make a big difference in responding to climate change: • Plant trees • Use energy wisely such as unplugging electrical appliances when not in use • Avoid using your car if you can and use effective mass transportation especially during peak hours when there is plenty of traffic • Practice use of recycled water • Re-use and recycle

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

The basics: Disaster risk reduction There is no such thing as a ‘natural’ disaster, only natural hazards.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention.* Disaster risk reduction‖can be defined as an action taken to reduce the risk of disasters and the adverse impacts of natural hazards, through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causes of disasters, including through avoidance of hazards, reduced social and economic vulnerability to hazards, and improved preparedness for adverse events. It is therefore tailor-made to help counteract the added risks arising from climate change.

The elements of DRR Response

The short term provision of emergency services during a slow onset emergency (e.g., conflict, drought) or immediately after a sudden-onset disaster (e.g., earthquake, industrial accident). Immediate relief focuses on saving lives (e.g. search and rescue, critical medical care, food, drinking water) and on reducing vulnerability and meeting basic needs (e.g., family tracing, food, water, shelter)

Recovery

The longer term support in restoring ‘normal life’. It is the local ownership and participation of affected populations which are deemed critical to recovery.

May include rehabilitation and reconstruction effort.

Mitigation

In the disaster risk reduction community, mitigation is the term given to structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. Measures may include public awareness and training, environmental and land use controls, reinforced structures and physical barriers.

The Hyogo Framework: A 10-Year Plan to make the world a safer place from natural hazards The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was the central outcome of the second World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, in 2005 (UNISDR 2005).

It was signed by 168 member states. The HFA is a 10-year plan aimed at substantially reducing losses resulting from extreme natural events. The HFA defines five priorities for action that are to contribute to disaster risk reduction: 1. Ensuring that disaster risk reduction becomes a national priority and a strong institutional basis for implementation is established.

2. Identifying, monitoring and assessing the respective disaster risk.

3. Supporting early warning.

4. Taking advantage of knowledge, innovation and education to develop a culture of security and resilience at all levels.

5. Reducing the risk factors behind disasters and strengthening disaster preparedness in order to enable an effective response at all levels. Thus, the HFA is the first plan to describe processes in detail that are necessary in the various sectors to reduce disaster risk. The implementation of the HFA is being coordinated by the Secretariat of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), which regularly reports on progress made in putting the plan into practice.

Preparedness

Provisions to reduce vulnerability and increase government and civil society capacity to anticipate, respond to and recover from the impact of disasters.

Measures include establishment of early warning system, risk/vulnerability assessments, and/or preparedness/contingency planning.

* from the united nations office for disaster risk reduction website: www. unisdr.org

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The link: Climate change increases disaster risk Climate change increases disaster risk in a number of ways. It changes the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (meaning that coping and response mechanisms and economic planning for disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no longer suffice). It changes average climatic conditions and climate variability, affecting underlying risk factors, and it generates new threats, which a region may have no experience in dealing with. Clearly, the climate change and disaster management communities need to work together in addressing these issues. If climate change adaptation policies and measures are to be efficient and effective they must build on and expand existing disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts. And if DRR approaches are to be sustainable, they must account for the impact of climate change.* DRR can deal with current climate variability and be the first line of defense against climate change, being therefore an essential part of adaptation.

Conversely, for DRR to be successful, it needs to take account of the shifting risks associated with climate change and ensure that measures do not increase vulnerability to climate change in the medium to long-term.

Figure 3.2. Illustration of the core concepts linking climate, disaster risk, greenhouse emissions and climate change adaptation.

Source: Understanding vulnerability and risks, the cca-drm nexus, 2012 Klima climate change center-Manila observatory- k. gotangco, r. Perez

* Linking climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, Tearfund, July 2008

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Understanding risks Risk is defined as the likelihood of an adverse effect, direct or indirect, on human health and welfare. Risk is also defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Note that risk is a generic term that encompasses virtually all type of activities.*

Risk encompasses the elements of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. In a more technical way, risk is understood as:

Usually expressed as a combination of frequency, or probability, and the consequence of a specific

hazardous event, risk may be estimated from the records of such consequences as had been experienced before, given the same or similar attendant conditions. Sometimes, the expression of risk includes the severity of damage or adverse result that could be in terms of fatality, or injury, or cost of property loss per unit of time. It should be noted that there can be no risk without a hazard.

Figure 3.3. The elements of risk Source: MOVE Project, www.move-fp7.eu.

* Under R.A. No. 10121, (Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010),

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Risk reduction Risk reduction is the process of identifying and analyzing long-term risks to human life and property from natural or non-natural hazards; taking steps to eliminate these risks if practicable, and, if not, reducing the magnitude of their impact and the likelihood of their occurring.*

Risk avoidance or elimination

Risk reduction or mitigation

Risk sharing or risk transfer

Risk retention or acceptance

General approaches for risk reduction Accept the risk Risks are considered to be within the acceptable or tolerable range.

Avoid the risk Abandonment of the proposed site/development, seeking an alternative site or form of development such that the revised risk would be acceptable or tolerable.

Reduce the likelihood Implementation of stabilization or other measures to control or minimize the initiating circumstances (e.g., re-profiling of surface geometry, groundwater drainage, anchors, protective structures, etc.).

* Australian Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, 2005

Reduce the consequences The provision of defensive and/or stabilization measures, amelioration of the behavior of the hazard or relocation of the development to a more favorable location to achieve an acceptable or tolerable risk. Monitoring and warning systems – in some situations monitoring (such as by regular site visits, or by survey), and the establishment of warning systems may be used to manage the risk on an interim or permanent basis. Monitoring and warning systems may be regarded as another means of reducing the consequences.

Transfer the risk This requires another authority or entity to accept the risk or to compensate for the risk such as by insurance.

Figure 3.4 illustrates these options and different scenarios are more visually depicted in the succeeding pages.

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Mitigation and adaptation reduces impacts and risks

Accept/ allow

Protect

• 100% loss • High risk • No cost

• 0% loss • Low risk • Medium cost

Modify/ adapt

Relocate

• 0% loss • Medium risk • Low cost

• 100% loss • Low risk • High cost

Figure 3.4. Options for disasters and climate change

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Scenario 1

Illustrates more frequent flooding and abandonment of houses

Scenario 2

This shows a berm as an adaptation strategy. A berm is a level space, shelf, or raised barrier separating two areas. It can serve as a border barrier.

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

scenario 3 This includes incremental retrofits of stilts and solar panels

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Current mean sea level illustrates the dike with extensive mudflats on left side, with trees and protected agricultural land on right side

Scenario 1

By choosing to do nothing, by 2100 the dike is breached and agricultural lands are flooded

Scenario 2

By choosing to adapt, the dike is raised by 2100

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Risk assessment Based on spectrum of hazards, risk assessment (including vulnerability assessment) is sufficiently flexible to be applied for all types of hazards from natural to human-induced or technological hazards (e.g., industrial accidents). Hazards can also be classified in terms of its geographical impact: local, regional or global. Finally, the timescale of occurrence (i.e., sudden or slow onset is another typology used to categorized hazards. Risk assessment is discussed in more detail in Module 4.

Photo by Desiree Llanos Dee

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Table 3.1. Different types of hazards

Geologic • • • • •

Earthquakes Volcanic eruptions Landslides/ mudflows Tsunamis Others (sink holes/ ground subsidence, erosion)

Hydro-meteorological • • • • • • •

Typhoons (strong wind, storm surge) Floods Landslides/ mudflows Droughts Extreme temperatures Sea-level rise Salt-water intrusion

Figure 3.5. Typology of hazards that are man-made, climate change related and natural Source: emmanuelLE bourNAY, 2006 UNEP/GRID-ARENDAL, www.grida.no

Hazard Under R.A. No. 10121, or the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, hazard is defined as a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.1 There are two types of natural hazards (Table 3.1): geological and hydro-meteorological. The latter will be affected by climate change. Major population centers and significant amount of economic assets are exposed to these hazards.

The full range of hazards includes natural (e.g., geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) and can even include those induced by human processes (e.g., environmental degradation and technological hazards) as shown in Figure 3.5.

Note that a hazard does not automatically lead to a harmful outcome. Rather, identification of a hazard means there is a possibility of harm occurring, with the actual harm depending on the exposure to the hazard and the characteristics of the receptor.2

1 NEDA-UNDP-EU, Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and land use/physical planning in the Philippines) 2 Ben Gouldby and Paul Samuels, Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies: Language of Risk (FLOODsite Consortium)

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Overview of hazards in the Philippines

Figure 3.6. Damage from disasters ( in millions of pesos at 2000 prices) Source: WB-NDCC

The Philippines’ location in the Pacific rim of fire makes it highly vulnerable to natural hazards.

In terms of population exposure, data3 shows that the Philippines is ranked 2nd out of 89 countries for cyclone, 33rd out of 184 countries for drought, 8th out of 162 countries for flood, 4th out of 162 countries for landslide and 2nd out of 153 countries for earthquake. In terms of economic exposure (as measured using GDP), the country ranked 6th out of 89 countries for cyclone, 9th out of 162 countries for flood, 6th out of 162 countries for landslide and 9th out of 153 countries for earthquake.

Geological events experienced in the Philippines include: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslide. There are about 20 earthquakes recorded per day, however there have been only 90 destructive earthquakes over the past 400 years.

3 www.preventionweb.net. Philippines - Disaster Statistics

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Table 3.2. Number of deaths, injuries and affected persons (1980-2006), Philippines. On average, the annual direct damage is PhP15 billion. For typhoons, the average is about 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) every year or approximately PhP6 billion pesos.

Source: NEDA

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2006

Deaths

5,220

17,249

8,555

Injured

19,315

15,166

6,201

Affected (‘000 persons)

13,713

68,911

42,543

Although the Philippines is prone to geological events, it is more exposed to the following Hydro-meteorological events. In terms of actual disaster occurring, data4 shows that the Philippines recorded a total of 363 disaster events from 1980 to 2010. On the average, these data is equivalent to an average of 6.35 storm events per year, 3.03 flood events per year, and 0.23 drought events per year among others.

These events affected a total of 3.7 million people a year, killing an average of 1,063 people annually and wrecking damage estimated at US$ 239 million every year for the same period.

In 2008, the National Economic and Development Authority estimated the average cost of direct damage from natural disasters from 1970 to 2006 at PhP15 billion (Year 2000 prices). Direct damage covers damage to agricultural crops, public infrastructure and private homes.

This is equivalent to a 0.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) due to typhoons alone every year.5

4 www.preventionweb.net. Philippines - Disaster Statistics 5 NEDA. Guidelines on Mainstreaming DRR in Sub-national Development and Land Use/Physical Planning in the Philippines. 2008

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Exposure Elements that are subject to the impact of a specific hazard (i.e., elements at risk) such as houses on a flood plain.

Risk factor in development planning •

Vulnerability The degree to which the exposed elements will suffer a loss from the impact of a hazard. The Climate Change Act of 2009 defines it as to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.

•

•

•

Vulnerability, defined by R.A. 10121, may arise from various physical, economic and environmental factors such as poor design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management.

•

Vulnerability generally refers to conditions which define how elements exposed to risk are affected by a hazard.

• • • • •

Sectoral vulnerability Physical vulnerability Economic vulnerability Social vulnerability Environmental vulnerability

Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity refer to the ability of any system to respond to change and return to state of balance.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines it as the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

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The concept of risk combines an understanding of the likelihood of a hazardous event occurring with an assessment of its impacts on communities, infrastructure and agricultural lands.

Hazardous events can be sudden, as in the case of an earthquake, or they can occur overtime as in the case for environmental hazards.

The total risk may be decreased by reducing the size of any one or more of the three contributing variables, the hazard, the elements exposed and/or their vulnerability.

To really understand the potential impact of a natural disasters on communities, provinces and countries, it is necessary to move beyond the understanding of hazard in a general term (i.e., using maps to identify areas of high hazards) to a more comprehensive appreciation of the risks posed to communities, the environment and the economy.

Risk assessments can provide the necessary and additional scientific methods and information to define the probability and magnitude of potentially adverse effects that can result from exposure to hazardous materials and situations. (Risk assessment is described further in Module 4: Introduction to Assessing Risks and Vulnerability).

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CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROGRAM MODULES

Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: the benefits, similarities and differences Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management efforts have often operated largely in isolation from each other – for a number of reasons. This situation must change as a matter of urgency to ensure a comprehensive risk management approach to development at local, national and international levels of government.

Figure 3.7. Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Points of Convergence Source: Understanding vulnerability and risks, the cca-drm nexus, 2012 Klima climate change center-Manila observatory- k. gotangco, r. Perez

Benefits* • • •

Reduction of climate-related losses through more widespread implementation of DRR measures linked with adaptation.

More efficient use of financial, human and natural resources.

Increased effectiveness and sustainability of both adaptation and DRR approaches.

* Linking climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, Tearfund, July 2008

Similarities* • • • •

Both focus on reducing people’s vulnerability Holistic, long-term processes and are not ‘quick fix’ approaches Sustainable development and poverty reduction lie at the heart of both DRR and CCA Reducing environmental degradation is important to both

VOLUME 1 MODULE 3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Disaster Risk Reduction

Table 3.3. Differences and signs of convergence between DRR and CCA Source: Linking climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, Tearfund, July 2008

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CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROGRAM MODULES

‘The risk a country runs of becoming a victim depends crucially on social, economic and institutional factors – in a nutshell, the condition of society within that country.’

A global assessment by the world risk index found the philippines as the third country with the largest disaster risk worldwide. The WorldRisk Index 2012 shows that these countries bear the disastrous combination of extreme exposure and high vulnerability.

Source: Worldrisk report 2012

Consequences of lack of convergence Continued devastating consequences to people’s lives and livelihood as well as national resources that would otherwise contribute to development A lack of coordination between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts can increase administration burdens, prevent efficient use of financial, human and decrease the overall effectiveness of efforts to reduce risk.

Disaster risk reduction based upon past and current experiences is likely to fail in its aim of building people’s resilience to future risks if it does not account for, and address, the consequences of climate change.

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Examples of DRR/ CCA Strategies Mitigation actions, under Disaster Risk Reduction can be grouped into six broad categories: 1. Prevention. Government administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence the way land and buildings are developed and built. Examples include planning and zoning, building codes, capital improvement programs, open space preservation, and storm water management regulations.

2. Property Protection. Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures to protect them from a hazard, or removal from the hazard area. Examples include acquisition, elevation, relocation, structural retrofits, storm shutters, and shatter-resistant glass.

3. Public Education and Awareness. Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials, and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Such actions include outreach projects, real estate disclosure, hazard information centers, and school-age and adult education programs.

4. Natural Resource Protection. Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses, also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. These actions include sediment and erosion control, stream corridor restoration, watershed management, forest and vegetation management, and wetland restoration and preservation.

5. Emergency Services. Actions that protect people and property during and immediately after a disaster or hazard event. Services include warning systems, emergency response services, and protection of critical facilities.

6. Structural Projects. Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the impact of a hazard.

Such structures include dams, levees, floodwalls, seawalls, etc.

Infrastructure risks Avoid or Eliminate Risks • • •

Prohibit development in high risk areas Buyout and relocate structures in highly prone areas Destroy and remove structures in hazardprone areas

Reduce and Mitigate Risks • • • • • •

Strengthen structure’s ability to resist hazard Change use or occupancy pattern of structure Enforce stricter zoning and building standards Develop response plans and improve hazards warning systems Build redundant infrastructure systems Secure items from damage and loss

Share and Transfer Risks • •

•

Develop alternate locations for key functions Institute a geologic hazard abatement district for home owners to share in future repair costs Real estate disclosures

Risk Retention • • •

Take no action Self-insure the stocks Treat physical losses as expenses

Social and cultural risks Avoid or Eliminate Risks • •

Deny occupancy of hazardous buildings Protect cultural assets through zoning standards

Reduce and Mitigate Risks • • •

Share and Transfer Risks

Integrate sociocultural • indicators into risk assessment Fund hospitals and social services mitigation • Identify needs of various population groups (e.g., elderly, handicapped, women, children)

Promote incentives for homeowners, renters and businesses to purchase insurance Create mutual aid agreements

Risk Retention • •

Take no action Prepare shelter plans for displaced residents

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Economic risks Avoid or Eliminate Risks •

•

Avoid or eliminate capital stock risks by mandating “smart” growth or avoiding high risk areas Develop business retention and job placement programs

Reduce and Mitigate Risks • • • • • •

Share and Transfer Risks

Provide incentives to mitigate • or reduce risk Diversify income sources Attract wide range of business types Mitigate risks to key income generators (base industries, large employment sectors) Incentives for “smart” growth Build economic alliances and partnerships

Shared responsibilities between government and private / business sector

Risk Retention • •

Take no action Special Funds or lines of credits for lost revenues

Natural resources/ environmental risks Avoid or Eliminate Risks • •

•

Eliminate sources of pollution Mandate use of technologies (e.g., emissions- free vehicles) Enforce strict zoning

Reduce and Mitigate Risks • • • • • • •

Eliminate point sources of pollution Launch clean-up efforts Regulate use and storage of potential pollutants Reduce densities in sensitive areas Habitat conservation plans Incentives for use of specific technologies Incentives for good development decisions

Share and Transfer Risks •

•

Develop transfer of development rights programs, or environmental land swaps Greater shared responsibilities of Indigenous Peoples in the management and protection of forests

Risk Retention • •

Take no action Brownfield clean-up and reuse costs

Development Planning Framework Development Issues and Challenges • •

•

Low agricultural • productivity of the area due to flooding Possible decrease of economic opportunities due to • the adverse effect of hazards in mining areas Exposure of critical infrastructure support to the natural hazards

Goal

Strategy/Policy

To ensure sustainable • use of land resources and achieve environmental balance • To provide adequate infrastructure support to catalyze • economic growth

• •

•

Source: DRR-enhanced PDPFP of Surigao del Norte

Provision of adequate drainage systems in prime agricultural areas that are prone to flooding Promotion of tolerant or resistant palay variety to be planted in flood prone areas Provision of appropriate drainage structures along major roads to properly convey run-offs to water bodies Provision of stable structures in side slopes along major road network Restriction of mining and quarrying activities within 10-km radius from urban centers, ecotourism sites and other protected areas Discourage establishment of settlements in high risk areas

Program/ Projects/ Activities • • • •

•

Flood mitigation program Watershed rehabilitation and reforestation program Agricultural productivity enhancement program Infrastructure programs for the protection of major roads from flooding and landslides Enforcement of zoning ordinances and environmental laws