What will become of Brazil after Covid-19? A prospective essay by 2030
Complete Edition 1 st Review: January 2021
Introductory notes It is with mixed feelings that Macroplan and I deliver this prospective essay
dissipating and revealing to us the actor’s behaviors and the dynamics of the
about Brazil after Covid-19 by 2030. First, the satisfaction of delivering what
events. Nevertheless, we are one of the first consultancies in Brazil to
we had promised in 2020 and updating it in January 2021. Second, relied and
anticipate what will become of our country through this decade and not only
a certain fatigue: 2020 was an outlier year that demanded a lot of energy,
in the first year.
discipline and emotional control from all of us in order to overcome it, survive and renew our hopes. Hard times.
After all, good anticipations and coherent long-term vision generate value.
Personally, conduct, consolidate and formalize this essay (with divided efforts of
leave us sequels, but it will be overcome by the vaccines and knowledge
our teams between this job and other projects) was one of the most difficult
produced by science. And we will make a better future again. I wish you all
intellectual, methodological and discipline challenges that I have ever faced.
have a good reading of this essay, that we will monitor and update through
Not because of the object itself: Brazil, as we well know it, and its plausible futures
this decade.
We believe in it because of conviction and experience. The pandemic will
are almost obvious under “normal conditions”. Nonetheless, the virus that provoked this pandemic shuffled all our cards or even the game itself, subjecting the reality of the country and the expectations of Brazilian people to coming and goings and to successive metamorphosis that surprise us often. Most of the time, the country was walking through “the March of Folly”. Therefore, to offer a consistent and useful panorama to our clients and
Claudio Porto
partners during so many uncertainties and an avalanche of information and
Founder of Macroplan
misinformation, we decided to be one of the last to share our perceptions and expectations about Brazil after Covid-19. This way we were able to have
December 2020 and January 2021
sufficient time to formulate and test hypothesis while the fog was gradually 2
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Summary
1
Socioeconomic conditions
2
The 5 driving forces that will shape Brazil by 2030
3
The 28 drivers of change
4
Strategies insights
5
References
6
About Macroplan
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
3
How this essay was built Start of the project
1
2
3
We surveyed well-informed people about perceptions and expectations (executives, managers, academicians, private, public and third sector specialists) in May and June 2020 for analysis and classification of these phenomena according to impact and uncertainty criteria. We obtained 139 feedbacks.
We crossed perceptions and expectations with our data, facts, specialized analysis and evidences monitoring. We reduced the 60 phenomena list to 28 → drivers of change.
6
5
4
We detailed the 5 driving forces and the 28 drivers of change.
We clustered these drivers into 5 driving forces.
We mapped and hierarchized the drivers’ influence net (structural analysis technique) → motricity x dependence plan¹.
7
8
9
We performed a robustness and consistency systematic analysis, with successive trials and adjustments over the last 3 months and we elaborated strategy insights.
Now we share.
Over this decade we will monitorize and update.
We identified 60 phenomena potentially sensitive to COVID-19. Those with high party politician, ideological, habits, race and genre content were previously excluded. Starting hypotheses.
1. According to the MICMAC method systematized by Michel Godet at the end of the 1970’s. GODET, Michel - Crise de la prévision, essor de la prospective: Exemples et méthodes. Presses universitaires de France (1977), Ch. 4.
1
Socioeconomic conditions
Brazil: General Data and 100 biggest cities NORTH
Population (2020):
211.755.692 inhabitants
Area:
8.5 millions de km2
Largest cities:
Sao Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brasilia (DF), Salvador (BA), Fortaleza (CE), Belo Horizonte (MG), Manaus (AM), Curitiba (PR), Recife (PE), Goiania (GO)
RO AC AM RR PA AP TO
MA PI CE RN PB PE
9 municipalities
Porto Velho Rio Branco Manaus Boa Vista Ananindeua, Belém e Santarém Macapá Palmas
WEST CENTRAL
RR
AP
AM
PA
MA
GNP (2018):
Per Capita income (2018):
Real (BRL)
AC
6 municipalities
BA
MT DF GO MG
MS SP
US$ 3.320 Billions PPP
15 municipalities
PR
Cascavel, Curitiba, Londrina, Maringá, Ponta Grossa e São José dos Pinhais
SC
Blumenau, Florianópolis e Joinville
RS
Caxias do Sul, Canoas, Gravataí, Pelotas, Porto Alegre e Santa Maria
US$ 15.850 PPP Source: Macroplan.
6
PE
TO
RO
MS Campo Grande MT Cuiabá e Várzea Grande GO Anápolis, Aparecida de Goiânia e Goiânia
SOUTH
CE PI
PR
Currency:
NORTHEAST
SC
RJ
ES
RN PB
AL SE
AL SE BA
20 municipalities
São Luís Teresina Caucaia e Fortaleza Mossoró e Natal Campina Grande e João Pessoa Caruaru, Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Olinda, Paulista, Petrolina e Recife Maceió Aracaju Camaçari, Feira de Santana, Salvador e Vitória da Conquista
SOUTHEAST
50 municipalities
MG Belo Horizonte, Betim, Contagem, Governador Valadares, Juiz de Fora, Montes Claros, Ribeirão das Neves, Uberaba e Uberlândia ES
Cariacica, Serra, Vila Velha e Vitória
RJ
Belford Roxo, Campos dos Goytacazes, Duque de Caxias, Niterói, Nova Iguaçu, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, São Gonçalo e São João de Meriti
SP
Bauru, Campinas, Carapicuíba, Diadema, Franca, Guarujá, Guarulhos, Itaquecetuba, Jundiaí, Limeira, Mauá, Mogi das Cruzes, Osasco, Piracicaba, Praia Grande, Ribeirão Preto, Santo André, Santos, São Bernardo do Campo, São José do Rio Preto, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, São Vicente, Sorocaba, Sumaré, Suzano, Taboão da Serra e Taubaté
RS
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
November 17th, 2019: 1st COVID-19 case (Hubei, China) January 15th, 2021: 2 million deaths caused by the pandemic Ignorance decreased (evidences), hope increased (vaccines), but uncertainties are still high
Over 50 countries have already started vaccination. So did Brazil!
2 Critical uncertainties for 4 economic recovery scenarios
3 scenarios for the pandemic
Sufficient
“Furios effort – fast recovery”
“Too loose, you lose – double dip”
“The long and painful stride – protracted downturn”
After 2 years
Effective vaccine available In up 2 years
PEAKS AND VALLEYS
“When nothing works – disintegration”
Insufficient Mitigation social strategies Source: Pandemics - Existential risks and enablers of change. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. Published on July 4th, 2020
A second wave has already emerged
World after Covid-19
COVID 19/01/20 (1st) European Union (2nd) United States (3rd) Brazil (4th) Russia (5th) South Africa (6th) Argentina
Acceleration in global economic changes (trade, technology, finances, economic policy)
Deaths associated to COVID-19: 2 million1 (real) vs. 4 million predicted deaths by January 1st, 20212. Public indebtedness on the rise Accelerated digitalization •
+ e-commerce – ps
•
+ education and health online services
An initial wave of cases - the current one - followed by an irregular and constant "peaks and valleys" race that will gradually decrease over a year or two.
Subtitle:
PEAKS AND FALLS
The current wave will be followed by a greater drop or perhaps a "winter peak". Subsequent smaller waves similar to what occurred during the Spanish flu (1918-1919)
SLOWBURN
An intense spring peak followed by a "slow burn" with less pronounced ups and downs.
Scenario discarded by Macroplan in November 2020.
Source: Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota – cited by Siobhan Roberts – “This Is the Future of the Pandemic” – in The New York Times, 8th, May, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
Brazil in 2021 - 212 thousand deaths by Covid-19 (01/21/21) Second most indebted country among the emerging ones¹, according to IMF’s Fiscal Monitor. Its debt may cross the barrier of 100% of national GDP. Projection for Gross Public Debt in emerging and middle-income markets in 2021 (% of GDP) - TOP 10
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
More intense competition among great economic powers Source: Coronavirus Monitoring Financial Times. January 19th, 2021.
Source: The Economist – Special Report: “The peril and the promise” (10/08/2020). (1): John Hopkins University of Medicine – Coronavirus Resource Center. (2): Washington University.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Note: (1) No data available for 2021 for Argentina and Veenezula. Source: Fiscal Monitor. October 2020 – IMF. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2020/09/30/october-2020-fiscal-monitor.
7
Brazil 2030 |What is very likely 1
2
We will be 225 million...
...inhabitants
...diverse and unequal RR
PA
MA PI
AC
TO
RO
PARAGUAY PARAGUAI
BA
MT
MG ES SP PR
209 million
SC
AM AC
Brazil’s position in the Infrastructure Quality Ranking (2019)
Roads
116
Rails
86
Harbors
104
Airlines
5
CHINA
RJ
CHILE
Energy supply
85
Public Investment/ GDP ≈ 2.3% (2009) – IBRE
Investment need/ GDP to reduce gap from 5 to 7% (Fritschtak)
73
Top 3 in global production and exports •
Soybeans
•
Coffee
•
Meat
•
•
Sugar
Orange juice
Per capita GDP growth (1990=100)
AP
BRASIL 2000 1800 PA MA 1600 CE RN PB 1400 PI PE 1200 AL TO1000 SE BA 800 MT DF 600 GO 400 MG ES 200 MS 0 PANAMÁ SP
URUGUAY URUGUAI
•
Metallurgical minerals
Over 1.5 billion people
•
Cellulose
513 364 228
SC
Brazil Brasil
6
...of mineral commodities and manufactured goods
Over 200 countries
585
RJ
RS
Top 5 in global production and exports
1.709
PR
But a great global supplier
...of food
RO
JAMAICA
RS
With deficient infrastructure
Ranking
RR
ZÂMBIA
CE RN PB PE AL SE
DF GO
MS
2020:
8
BOLIVIA BOLÍVIA
AP
PARAGUAI PARAGUAY AM
BOLIVIA BOLÍVIA
A middle-income
...country
JAMAICA
4
3
We will still be...
South Korea Coreia do Sul
India Índia
China
Russia Rússia
With an attractive domestic market
10th biggest consumer market in the world (Doing Business)
Urban network| Brazil - 2018
100 biggest cities: 40% of the total inhabitants Only one language and currency High connectivity for online payments 4th biggest highway network in the world (1.7 million km long) Integrated and accessible cities network
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Until January, Brazil is the country that worst handled Covid-19 pandemic
Which countries better handled Covid-19 pandemic? Lowy Institute, Australia Ranking position
•
BEST
According to Folha de Sao Paulo on January 28th, 2021: “Brazil is the country with the worst public management during the pandemic,
according to a report by Lowy Institute, a study center based on Sidney, Australia. •
The study was based on six criteria: confirmed cases; confirmed deaths; confirmed cases per million people; confirmed deaths per million people; confirmed cases as a proportion of tests; tests per thousand people. The study used data from the 36 weeks that followed every country’s 100th confirmed case of Covid-19.
•
Brazil was in the last position among 98 governments evaluated. Mexico, Colombia, Iran and the United States also had very low scores.
•
At the other end of the list, New Zealand was appointed as the country that best WORST
dealt with the health crisis. And Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan were included among the best examples...."
Source: Folha de Sao Paulo. Available at: (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2021/01/brasil-e-o-pais-que-pior-lidou-com-apandemia-aponta-estudo-que-analisou-98-governos.shtml). Access on 01/28/2021 WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
New Zealand Vietnam Taiwan Thailand Cyprus Rwanda Iceland Australia Latvia Sri Lanka Uruguay South Korea United Arab Emirates Sweden Japan Germany Italy Canada United Kingdom France Russia Spain South Africa India Chile Ukraine Oman Panama Bolivia United States Iran Colombia Mexico Brazil
Source: Lowy Institute
9
2
The 5 driving forces that will shape Brazil by 2030
The evolution of Brazil until
2030 will be conditioned by 5 driving
forces¹
1
4
Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis
Emergence of new forms of social relationship
2 Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity
3 Revision of the role and way of acting of the State
5 Valorization of public health
(1) Driving forces: Phenomena or processes that strongly influence the behavior and trajectory of other phenomena, processes, actors or variables associated in a given time horizon and that reinforce each other WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
1. Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis
CONDITIONINGS
WORLD - Covid-19
Two groups of macro-conditioners form and drive this driving force. In the world, the COVID-19 pandemic and the accentuation of political tensions, polarized by the United States and China, bring together the most negative factors. Partly mitigated by the great international liquidity and the dissemination and acceleration of digital technologies.
- Political tensions + Great international liquidity
the magnitude and the extension of the sanitary crisis and its economic consequences have accentuated. We are among the Top 5 in the world in number of deaths by the pandemic.
ii.
our chronic economic anemia, which is largely due to
iii.
A social contract that produces high inefficiency and sustains iniquities and significant privileges
iv. and it is operated by a high-cost low-performance state, cause and effect of a economic system of low productivity and competitiveness v.
despite our great and valuable potentials in the 21st century: market, agrobusiness and natural resources
Consequently, the most likely is that the economic and social Brazilian crisis will last for a long time, even though there is a good chance that its intensity will reduce
24
28
Slowdowning of globalization
Higher relative growth of Asian countries
+ Digital technologies
LENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS
In Brazil, there are six main phenomena: i.
DRIVING FORCE DYNAMIC
REINFORCEMENT OF ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES
REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
BRAZIL - Health and economic crisis (Brazil Top 5)
1
- Economic anemia (low structural growth(
Increase of public and private indebtedness
- Social contract sustains inefficiencies, privileges and iniquities - State: high-cost and low-performance - Economy: low productivity (WF e TFP) + Great potentials: market, agrobusiness, natural resources
19 High social inequalities
2 Increase of unemployment and poverty
8 Automation and robotization
VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH
2. Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity Two groups of conditionings shape and boost this driving force.
CONDITIONINGS
WORLD + expansion of the offer of digital technologies and mass media network
DRIVING FORCE DYNAMIC
Growing usage of public data, big data and analytics
Significant increase of digital businesses
5
6
In the world, the intensification and dissemination of
Threats to the privacy of personal data
In Brazil, two phenomena stand out in this field: Positively, (+) the high propension of our society to insert itself in digital network coexisting with
ii.
A negative phenomenon: (-) the accentuated deficits and the high-cost of our digital communication
Consequently, the expansion of this connectivity is most likely to be accentuated, but it will face some
economic barriers (investment capacity and payment of the costs of services operation and maintenance)
REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
11
information and communication technologies
i.
REINFORCEMENT OF ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES
9 BRAZIL + Support of high social propensity for insertion in digital networks, but coexisting with - Technological and capacity deficits and high relative cost of access to digital communication
Strong growth of e-commerce
4 Increase and diversification of e-learning
7
12
Multiplication of opportunities and ways of remote work
Dissemination of telemedicine
ACCELERATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY
EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP
VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH
3. Revision of the role and way of acting of the State
CONDITIONINGS
DRIVING FORCE DYNAMIC
WORLD Two great conditionings boost and direct this driving force.
In the world, the economic, social, political and ideological valorization of environmental sustainability and public policies based on data and scientific evidences is positive. As well as the acceleration of digital technologies. On the negative side, the strength, the rooting and several forms of populism. In Brazil, seven phenomena influence: three in a negative way and four in a
+ valorization of environmental sustainability + valorization of public policies based on data and evidences
+ acceleration of digital technologies - rooting and several forms of populism
Digitalization of the public sector
(-) elevated social and infrastructure deficits
ii.
(-) structural scarcity of uncommitted public resources
iii.
(-) society’s accentuated tensions and dissatisfaction
iv.
(+) our federative and political diversity
- social and infrastructure deficits
(+) the technical-scientific competences and capacities networks are
- structural scarcity of available public resources
v.
multiplying and diversifying, even in adverse environments vi.
(+) our great economic potentials: market, agrobusiness and natural
resources, truly valuable in the vii.
21st
century
(+) the “traction gain” of infrastructure and public services concessions and PPPs
Consequently, given the depletion dynamics and the high maintenance cost of the current state model, it is likely that successive adaptative reforms will take place over the decade, stimulating revisions and improvements in the role and way of acting of our public sector.
BRAZIL
- society’s tensions and dissatisfaction + federative and political diversity + technical-scientific competences and capacities networks + great economic potentials: market, agrobusiness and natural resources + traction gain” of concessions and PPPs
14
13 15
positive way. i.
Increase of public services (supply and coverage)
17
REINFORCEMENT OF ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES
Reconfiguration and improvements of social security networks
Usage of data and evidences in public policies and strategies
20 Reinforcement of environmental sustainability
REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
LENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS
EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP
4. Emergence of new forms of social relationship This driving force is influenced by two conditionings groups.
In the world, the very strong expansion and diversification, over the last decade, of digital information technologies and platforms and communication networks has opened new horizons. Nevertheless, it has also produced negative effects, such as the enhancement of intolerance and prejudices and the strengthen of populism. In Brazil, 7 phenomena stand out, many of them with positive and negative effects simultaneously: i.
(+ and -) the elevated connection rate per day of our population
ii.
(+ and -) we are among the Top 3 in the world in users of social media platforms
iii.
(-) much of our society is highly prone to contamination by fake-news and lying narratives
iv.
(-) the rooting of intolerance and prejudice, with outbreaks of polarization and seduction by populists and “saviors of the country”
v.
(+) the advent and multiplication of public spaces reconfiguration experiments
vi.
(+) initiatives and practices of social solidarity
Consequently, it is likely or almost likely that over the next 10 years we will not come back to the “old normal”. Neither the social interaction will be totally ruled by a “new normal”. The dominant pattern will tend to be a hybrid of good habits and secular social practices with new ways of being, living and cohexisting. Hopefully with more tolerance and empathy and less polarizations and assaults to real life facts.
CONDITIONINGS
WORLD + expansion and diversification of digital information technologies and platforms and communication networks
DRIVING FORCE DYNAMIC
EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP
- Rooting and several forms of populism
BRAZIL (+ -) elevated connection rate per day of our population (+ -) Top 3 in the world in users of social media platforms
24 Proliferation of virtual connections and social networks for information
Social polarization and political tensions
10
21
(-) society highly prone to contamination by fake-news and lying narratives (-) intolerance, prejudice, polarization and seduction by populists and “saviors of the country” (+) good public spaces reconfiguration experiments (+) initiatives and practices of social solidarity
ACCELERATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY
Stimulus to conscious consumption
- enhancement of intolerance and prejudices and the strengthen of populism
REINFORCEMENT OF ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES
REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
22 25 More sense of collectivity and social solidarity
Redefinition of public spaces
VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH
5. Valorization of public health
CONDITIONINGS WORLD (-) losses and injuries
(-) reduction of social welfare
This is one of the positive legacies of the global effort to fight the Covid-19 pandemic in this era of real-time information and connections. In the world, losses are and will still be very severe, not only human lives, but also physical and emotional injuries. There will be strong reduction in opportunities, production and social welfare. However, the gains will also be significative, specially in the mid long-term: i.
ii.
(+) large collections of scientific, technological and managerial knowledge being produced; and learning from individuals, groups, communities, societies, public institutions and private agents
DRIVING FORCE DYNAMIC
VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH
(+) capacity in anticipating, preventing and managing pandemics (+) acceleration of health innovations (+) greater awareness of the value of health and preventive anticipation (?) reconfiguration of health supplies and equipment global supply chains
Better sanitary safety
Greater health services coverage
3
16
(+) unprecedented acceleration in vaccine and medical instruments production
Global collaborative health research
iii. (+) greater awareness of the value of health and preventive anticipation One remaining uncertainty is how long-lasting and intense the reconfiguration of global supply chains will be in order to reduce the dependence of most countries in the world on the supply of health supplies and equipment from Asia, especially China and India. In Brazil, there is evidence that our performance in this field is among the worst in the world, with emphasis on (i) the incoordination, improvisation, bad example and nonengagement of public authorities and institutions and political and civil leaderships; and (ii) the deepening and prolonging of the economic crisis. Nonetheless, there are positive signs in the horizon:
i.
ii.
(+) social and political valorization of SUS – the Brazilian National Health Systems, a network with 47 thousand BHU (Basic Heath Units ) in all urban settlements throughout the country; 38 thousand vaccination rooms) (+) emergence of healthier social sanitary habits (hygiene, protection, use of masks, etc.)
iii. (+) dissemination of good health prevention practices iv. (+) acceleration of telemedicine with "forced reduction" of corporate resistance to the adoption of this modality of health service
The expected net balance is the significant and lasting valorization of public health.
REINFORCEMENT OF ONGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES
BRAZIL (-) low performance of public
REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
23
authorities and institutions, and
ACCELERATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY
political and civil leaderships in the fight of the pandemic and its consequences management (+) social and political valorization of SUS (+) emergence of healthier sanitary habits (+) dissemination of good health prevention practices (+) acceleration of telemedicine
27 Less reliance on Asian health supplies and equipments
18 More preventive health
EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP
3
The 28 drivers of change
Trends, emerging chances and uncertainties
5 driving forces group 28 drivers of change that are interconnected in a network of influence exchange, as shown in the figure to the right
5 Subtitle | Driving Forces
6
Public data, Big data, analytics
Digital business
1. LENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS
MOTRICITY (Pow er of influence of each vect or over t he ot hers)
Brazil after Covid-19 by 2030
Expansion and improvement of public services
2. ACCELERATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY
Data privacy
3. REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE
11 1
4. EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP
Automation and robotization
Expansion of public and private indebtedness
5. VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Digitalization of the public sector
Social protection networks
13
8 E-commerce
Virtual connections and social networks as a source of information
Higher unemployme nt and poverty
10
More sanitary safety
Data and evidence in public policies and actions
9
2
Distance education
4
Remote work
7
15 12 17
Telemedi cine
16
Health services coverage
3
19 Social inequalities
Environmental sustainability
20
Slowdown of globalization
24 21
28
18
Conscious consumption
26
27
14
Less dependence on supplies and equipment from Asian countries
Sense of collectivity
25 23
Social polarization and political tensions
Collaborative and global health research
22
Redefinition of public spaces
Higher relative growth of Asian countries
DEPEND E NC E (I nt ensit y of influence received by each vect or)
Preventive health
1. Expansion of public and private indebtedness By 2030, the General Government's Gross Debt may exceed the
General Governement’s Gross Debt Projections – As usual, optmistic, perrimistic (% of GDP)
barrier of 100% of the national GDP. Private indebtedness should also expand, with 66% of Brazilian families in debt and about 6 million companies in default.
•
This refers to the total debts of the federal, state and municipal governments to the public and private sector and the rest of the world. Private indebtedness includes
the sum of debts of Brazilian companies and families. •
The National Treasury Secretariat recently published the Public Sector Gross Debt (PSGD) and Net Debt (PSND) scenarios for Brazil until 2029. According to Mansueto
As usual
Almeida, former National Treasury Secretary, even fulfilling the spending ceiling, the
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Ebit, Relatório Webshoppers – 41st Edition, page 9
PSND would grow to 87% of GDP. In 2013 the PSND was 35% of the GDP and in 2019 it reached 55.7%. Moreover, the current debt profile is very short: 66% of PSD pays
•
short-term interest.
Possible implications
Since 2010, the number of indebted families has grown 13.5%, reaching a total of
•
Permanent and doubled attention to the evolution of PD/GDP
10.8 million units. Maintaining the average annualized growth rate of 2.4% per year
•
Going into high bias: country risk, inflation risk and real interest rate increase
•
Closer monitoring of household and business indebtedness as it can be a perverse binomial: low growth x increase in default
•
Opportunity: expansion and diversification of Concessions and PPPs for infrastructure and public services
and considering the deterioration of economic indicators such as GDP and occupation rate, the number of defaulting families could exceed 13 million by 2030. According to SERASA, 5.9 million companies were in default as of June 2020. Between 2007 and 2020, the balance of the credit portfolio granted to legal entities grew 34%, reaching 23.4% of GDP.
19
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
2. Higher unemployment and poverty
Evolution of the number of unemployed people (in thousands) Optimistic and pessimistic scenario 20000
15.247
13.168
10000
The unemployment rate reached 14.3% of the population between August
6.754
0
and October 2020, a record for the period. In 2019, 13.7 million Brazilians lived in extreme poverty. As much as the indicator has shown relief during
Optimistic projection: return to the levels of the beginning of the decade.
the pandemic thanks to emergency aid, its discontinuity indicates that the
Pessimistic projection: increase of the same proportions between 2010 and 2020
improvement is temporary. By 2030, therefore, we are still expected to live
Source: Censo 2010, PNAD 2011, PNADC – IBGE.
in a country with very deteriorated unemployment and poverty indicators.
•
For the ten-year period 2020-2030, the average unemployment rate is likely to be
Brazil - Evolution of per capita GDP (in BRL) - IBRE Forecast
higher than the previous decade. According to recent data, we have 14.1 million
Forecast
unemployed. To make the average similar to the period 2012-2019, the rate should fall around 5% per year by 2030. In the short term, with the Emergency Aid, the poverty level has dropped to considerably low numbers when compared to the historical series. A study by FGV, coordinated by Marcelo Néri, showed that the benefit was responsible for reducing poverty by 23%.
•
Source: Valor Econômico
By per capita income criterion, Brazil is impoverishing since 2013. According to an IBRE study, in 2020, Brazil's per capita GDP should end the year at BRL 33,300. Given the economic crisis resulting from Covid-19, it will take more than a decade for Brazil to return to the level of 2013: only in 2030, according to Silvia Matos, coordinator of the Macro Bulletin of IBRE/ FGV. In the decade, while Brazil grew only 2.2%, the world expanded 30.5% according to estimates recently released by the IMF.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Possible implications •
Growing risk of "Argentinization of Brazil": slow and gradual but permanent impoverishment in this and in the next decades
•
Loss of economic attractiveness of the country on a global scale
•
Relative impoverishment compared to other middle-income countries, especially Asian ones
•
Importance and urgency of a shared strategic vision by the country's main leaderships to reverse this decadence trajectory
3. More sanitary safety On April 3 rd , 2015, Bill Gates presented a TED Talk of just over 8 minutes: "The next outbreak? We're not ready". It predicted a pandemic. In 2018, the WHO
Brazil - Investment in sanitation (as % of GDP) – Medium, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts
included in its list of priorities the prevention of "disease x", an unknown
0,60%
pathogen with a potential for rapid contamination. The lack of preventive
0,40% 0,23%
actions in a globalized world caused, in 2020, one of the greatest pandemics
0,20%
experienced by humanity. And it highlighted the lack of health security in Brazil and in the world. For the next few years, the destructive nature of Covid -19 has
0,46% 0,23%
0,19%
0,15%
0,00%
accentuated the need for preventive strategies and practices so that phenomena like this will not be repeated in the future.
Optimistic projection: assuming an agenda of privatizations and PPPs, an indicator twice as large as 2010, with significant growth from 2023 onwards Base/Median projection : return to the levels of the beginning of the decade.
•
Sanitary safety is the set of conditions and actions capable of eliminating, reducing or preventing health
Pessimistic projection: drop of the same proportions observed between 2010 and 2018
risks and intervening in sanitary problems resulting from the environment, the production and circulation
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: SNIS (FN033+FN048+FN058) and IBGE
of people and goods, and the provision of services of interest to health. •
For WHO, one of the basic forms of disease prevention and control is to ensure access to treated water, an adequate sanitation system, and waste collection and treatment. However, nearly 35 million
Possible implications
Brazilians do not have access to treated water and 47% do not have access to sewage. Substantial deficits could be progressively eliminated as the concession of water and sewage services to investors
•
More investments in research and development for virus infection screening, prevention, immunization and treatment of the population
•
Greater control at ports and airports, as well as greater demand for vaccination for the flow of passengers and inspection of the movement of goods.
•
Valorization of investments in sanitary infrastructure and policies of access to treated water
•
Valorization of coordinated and intelligent networks and systems for prevention and quick response to new epidemics
and private operators accelerates and expands in facing the depletion of investment capacity and low operational efficiency of the current state companies in this area. •
But the severity of COVID-19 is also producing a positive legacy: there are signs of a growing appreciation of health measures and public health by the population, which may favor the expansion of investments and the performance of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). A relevant sign was the good electoral performance of the governors and candidates who showed greater attention and dedication to prevention or mitigation of COVID-19 in their administrative spaces. In other words, good public health supply gives vote. On the other hand, new waves of R&D and emerging technologies may broaden the range of alternatives available to governments and society.
21
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
4. Expansion and diversification of distance education By 2030, distance learning could consolidate itself as the main
Evolution of undergraduate enrollments by learning modality (2010 2030) (in millions)
category of education in higher education institutions and expand
10,0
into secondary education. If the historical growth rate (of 11% per
40%
5,0
year since 2010) is maintained, it is expected that more than half of undergraduate enrollments will be for remote courses. •
60%
20%
0
Distance learning is the educational modality in which students and teachers are
0%
Presencial On-site
a distância Distance
Proporção (EAD/Total) Ratio (Distance/ Total)
separated, physically or temporally, and therefore the use of information and Source: Macroplan, with data from Censo Escolar.
communication means and technologies is necessary. Digital education is the practice of using technological means in teaching methods, often combined with the adoption of more dynamic learning processes. •
Possible implications
While enrollment in distance learning courses has grown 11% per year since 2010, on-site courses have increased only 1%. Following this trend, by 2030 more than half
•
Learning with virtual education during the pandemic period will boost the adoption of new teaching/learning formats, stimulating the creation of new business models as well as the production of new social inequalities.
•
Greater pressure for expanding public investment in connectivity (digital inclusion)
•
Encouraging hybrid education, including at the high school level
•
Wide opportunities for applying analytics to improve and customize learning
•
Urgency in public policy making to mitigate the education gap arising from the pandemic period
of enrollment (52%) will be in distance learning courses, reaching a total of more
than 8 million enrollments. •
In addition to on-site and distance learning, hybrid education should become increasingly common in the Brazilian educational system. The pandemic has accelerated transformation in schools and several countries are already adopting the category. What can be expected in the coming years is not only a smaller growth in the purely face-to-face modality (except in elementary education) and a big increase in the hybrid teaching modality in the country.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
22
5. Growing use of public data, big data and analytics 126,3
118,0
2029
110,2
2028
96
2026
103
90
2025
2027
84
2024
77
70
2022
2023
64
2021
56
2020
49
2019
42
2018
28
2016
35
22,6
2015
2017
18,3
worldwide by 2020. The need to store this amount of information has engendered
2014
Over 59 zettabytes (ZB) of data will be created, captured, copied and consumed
19,6
•
2013
Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Russia.
12,25
regulation and data protection, which is already being done in
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2012
big data and analytics market will also bring a new discussion on
7,6
improving decision-making in companies and governments. The
2011
data will be one of the main tools for increasing productivity and
2030
With the potential to move about US$15 trillion by 2030, the big
Projection of the world market value of Big Data by 2030 (in billions of dollars)
strong growth in sectors related to cloud computing, Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. •
In 2018, the Information and Communication Technology sector moved almost BRL480 billion, representing 7% of that year's GDP. When compared to the previous year - 2017 - the growth presented was 2.5%.
•
Source: Macroplan, with data from Statista.
For 2020-2022, it is estimated an investment of BRL 142.7 billion (increase of 23% per
Possible implications •
Opportunity to impose more rationality on the choices of economic agents, both public authorities and the private sector.
•
Increased productivity and greater speed in obtaining insights and responses in problem solving
•
Data as increasingly valuable commodities
•
Emergence of a new labor market, which will change the structure of the higher education system, in order to offer more and more courses in the area of data science.
year) in cloud computing and BRL 68.8 billion (increase of 13% per year) in Big Data and Analytics. •
The intense generation, storage and use of data will have great impacts on the labor market, which will demand labor that can use them, interpret them and apply them in the fastest and most efficient way.
23
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
6. Significant growth of digital business Brazilians are among the most eager users of the Internet
Since 2010, the number of homes with internet access in Brazil has
Time spent on internet (Hours)¹
more than doubled. For the next years, the number of users may exceed 90% of the population. This means that until 2030 probably
PC or tablet
almost the whole Brazilian population will be potential consumers
Hours per day
of digital products and services. •
9
Mobile
Digital business involves all aspects of operating an online business and conducting
Philippines
Brazil
Argentina
Mexico
India
USA
China
Russia
UK
44% Mobile
business processes on the Internet. 1 Data refer to adult respondents and are based on survey. The numbers represent activities reported by the own users.
•
The most significant sectors of digital business in Brazil today are: financial
Source: McKinsey, Brazil Digital Report, April 2019, page 33
transactions, info-products, content marketing, service platforms and insurtechs. All these sectors will benefit from the rapid growth of e-commerce around the world. •
Besides the opportunities generated by the Brazilian scenario: 45 million Brazilians do not have a bank account but move RS$800 billion per year; 85% of adults have a cell phone and by 2025, 86% of the population is expected to have a smartphone.
Possible implications •
Development or leverage of digital business such as distribution services, financial services and financial inclusion, health and welfare, sharing experiences, among others. These are movements that were amplified by the epidemic and are expected to expand during the decade
•
Emergence of new competitive "arenas" and collaborative ecosystems
•
Multiplication of digital banking business
•
Appreciation of cyber security strategies and services
•
Greater attention to customer relationship (loyalty)
•
Diversification of online entertainment services (pay-per-view services, personalized offers, anticipated content delivery)
Recent changes in regulation and access to the virtual world open the way for trends in the financial sector: Open Banking and Instant Payment (PIX). •
Internet penetration in Brazil is 70%, 13 points above the global average.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
24
7. Dissemination of remote work By 2030, the practice of hybrid or completely remote work will be much more common, as the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 have shown that a structural change in the functioning of the infrastructure of companies of all sizes is possible. •
With home office, Banco do Brasil will return 19 of 35 office buildings in the country
Remote work means the provision of services predominantly outside the physical workplace of the employer, with the use of information and communication
technologies. •
The practice of remote work, whose most familiar but not exclusive "face" is the home office had already grown 51% between 2017 and 2018. And it is estimated that this model will grow 30% after the period of social distancing imposed by Covid-19.
•
Possible implications •
This phenomenon should be maintained to some degree in the future, especially for workers who do not carry out their activities on the street, in industrial production or in direct contact with the public. It will result in changes in behavior and social relations.
•
Substantial expansion of demand for high-capacity networks
•
More technological integration for optimization of internal processes of companies
•
Adoption of agile methodologies and SaaS (Software as a Service) technology tools
•
Decrease or reversal of the movement of people from inland cities to large centers
•
Readequation of public spaces and urban infrastructure
Remote work promotes an increase of 15% to 30% in employee productivity. But it also produces non-negligible negative effects.
•
In the long run, remote work may bring significant changes in the field of mobility, urban space reordering (devaluation of shopping centers by vacating property) and in the real estate market.
•
According to IBGE, Brazil concentrates 22% of its population in only 20 cities.
•
Between January and May 2020, the search for real estate in cities more than 100 km away from the capital Sao Paulo grew by 340%.
25
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
8. Acceleration of automation and robotization International comparison of robot stock - Selected countries Automation is seen in a positive way from the point of view of the consumer and companies, because it minimizes costs and brings efficiency gains. In Brazil, we are lagging in the process of automation and robotization. Our labor is still abundant and cheap, but we do not have enough training in the use of new technologies, which will still require a large investment in teaching and development of professionals. With the acceleration of this process in the coming years, it is estimated that by 2030, the use of robots and automated processes in factories can extinguish about 15.7 million jobs.
•
Automation is the application of technology, programs, robotics or processes to achieve results with minimal human contribution.
•
China (1st)
A study conducted by Ipsos showed that almost half of the workers report, globally, that automation has totally transformed their work compared to what it was 10 years ago. In
Japan (2nd)
Korea (3rd)
USA (4th)
Germany (5th)
Italy (6th)
France (7th)
Brazil (18th)
Source: Valor Econômico
addition, 3 out of 10 workers say that automation is putting their current job at risk. In addition to work, AI is also changing the operational definition of privacy.
•
Brazil is still far behind in the race for automation and the use of AI. While the U.S. has made investments of over US$ 30 billion and China US$ 25 billion between 2018 and 2022, Brazil is expected to attract only US$ 2.5 billion.
•
According to the International Federation of Robotics, Brazil ranks 18th in robot stock, concentrating its stock in the automotive, plastic, chemical and metallurgical sectors.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Possible implications •
Investment in high production efficiency technologies, energy and climate change adaptation and mitigation
•
New professional skills will be required and valued in the labor market
•
Many opportunities for developing new business models associated with automation
26
9. Significant growth in e-commerce Evolution of e-commerce in Brazil (in billion BRL)
By 2030 e-commerce in Brazil will reach an income of $ 550 billion, maintaining the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019, or $ 1.3 trillion if this rate doubles in size. •
E-commerce refers to the purchase and sale of goods or services using the digital medium and the transfer of money and data to execute these transactions.
•
1,3 trilhão
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 18,70 0
It grew 3.3 times between 2011 and 2019 in Brazil, a year in which it moved almost
327,43
61,90
BRL 62 billion. For 2020 the estimate is that online sales will generate a financial volume of BRL 106 billion. An average rate of 16% annual growth. •
Same average rate Taxa média mantida
Doubled average rate Taxa média dobrada
The isolation experience included several consumer segments in the "digital world" and further energised the consumer market through non-presential channels,
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Ebit, Relatório Webshoppers – 41st edition, page 9
reduced the use of physical money and created new opportunities for sales of goods and services. According to The Economist, the e-commerce sector in the world's 60 largest economies grew by 60% in 2020 alone. For the next few years, the
study suggests rates are still quite high. •
40% of Brazilians are doing more shopping online during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the cut in their spending and 35% intend to decrease visits to physical stores after COVID-19.
27
Possible implications •
Increase in the importance and relative weight of e-commerce
•
More investment in media and user experience
•
Growth of marketplaces, with incorporation of small business sales
•
Decentralization of distribution centers
•
Re-evaluation and reinvention of the physical store ("store pick up")
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
10. Intensification of virtual connections and social networks as a source of information How Brazilians get informed
By 2030, with 90% of Brazilians having access to the Internet, social networks may take two completely different paths: strengthen democracy and the critical sense of citizens - stimulated by transparency and immediate testing of the truthfulness of the information disseminated - OR make the country even more polarized and with greater dissemination and impact of fake news and practices of social intimidation and digital bullying. •
In the last decade, the internet penetration rate grew 7% per year in Brazil giving online access to 70% of the Brazilian population.
•
Brazilians spend more than nine hours a day connected (one of the highest rates in the world) and are in 2nd or 3rd place among those who most use the main social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and WhatsApp.
•
Source: Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, Digital News Report 2020
Possible implications •
Digitization of analog products and personalization of information consumption experience, fostering new business models
•
Multiplication and diversification of fact-checking agencies.
•
Revalorization of major media
1,000%, according to Microsoft. 20% of Brazilians say they met with family or friends
•
Changes in the form of consumption: more conscious and focused on purpose
in a virtual way.
•
Content segmentation for each target audience
•
Increasing polarization of groups of different social, economic, environmental and cultural interests
85% of Brazilians are concerned about the veracity of the content on the Internet, even though 7 out of 10 have believed or believe at least one false story about the pandemic.
•
During the first months of social distancing, the demand for video calls grew about
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
28
11. Threats to the privacy of personal data Deadline by which Brazilians plan to comply with the new LGPD With 90% of the population having access to the Internet in the next few years, the debate about the security of Brazilian users' data is intensifying. With the recently enacted LGPD (General Data Protection Law), which prohibits the collection and use of data without user consent, by 2030 a more secure virtual
In conformity Em conformidade
environment is expected to be observed and there will be a greater balance in
15%
Em até mês In up toum 1 month
the competition, in addition to an upgrade in terms of public and private
9%
De 11 to a 3 months meses From
services commitment and a greater investment in the area of digital security.
16%
De 33 to a 6 months meses From •
De 66 to a 12 meses From months
The General Law of Personal Data Protection (LGPD), Law 13.709/2018, aims to regulate the treatment of personal data by companies, since these personal data have gained great
7%
Maisthan de 22anos More years
consumption profiles, influencing opinions and prejudices, among other possibilities.
NãoDoes temnot planos plan Não Does notsabe know
In Brazil, 15% of the companies already claim to be in compliance with the new law and 40% plan to be in compliance within 6 months.
•
24%
Entre From 1 1e to22anos years
importance in the modern economy, as they allow making predictions, analyzing
•
15%
4% 2% 8%
By 2021, about US$ 6 trillion should be invested worldwide in the area of information security Source: Macroplan, with data from Serasa Experian
to prevent or mitigate data leakage and system and network intrusions. Brazil is already the
tenth in the ranking of investments in digital security, since cyber crime generates losses between BRL 40 and BRL 80 billion every year. •
Nowadays, the data is a factor that can provide greater competitive advantage to companies that own and treat them. With LGPD in force, it is expected that a more
Possible implications •
Risk of capture and use of personal data without the owners' knowledge
•
Access to buyer information will affect companies' competitiveness
•
Higher investments in the area of digital security
balanced competition will be established between companies that had access to data and those that did not, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether this will actually happen.
29
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
12. Consolidation of telemedicine By 2030, the American Telemedicine Association (ATA) estimates that
Forecast for the worldwide telemedicine market revenue (in billions of dollars)
50% of health services in the United States will be performed on a virtual basis. Medicare, for example, has gone from 11,000 teleconsultations
$300,0
per week to 1.3 million in the lockdown period. The quarantine has
$200,0
encouraged governments around the world to regulate the practice of
$100,0
telemedicine, including Brazil, which will serve as a lever to drive growth
According to WHO, telemedicine is the provision of health services, where distance is a critical factor, by all health professionals who use information and communication technologies. With the increase in life expectancy, the elderly population will increase, as well as the Internet and online tools will become more accessible, facts that highlight the need for the implementation of telemedicine in the coming years.
•
According to Mordor Intelligence, the global telemedicine market may present an average annual growth of more than 18% in the next years, and could move almost US$ 290 million in 2030.
•
In April, a law allowing telemedicine was sanctioned in Brazil, but limited to the pandemic period.
•
The use of telemedicine in primary health care, the first level of assistance in the health network, can reduce by up to 80% unnecessary referrals to a specialty center, and as a consequence, reduce the waiting time when it is needed.
•
In addition, telemedicine may strongly reduce the effects of the large concentration of physicians in Brazilian capitals and major cities, according to studies by FMUSP (Medical Demography in Brazil 2018, page 46).
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
$38,1
$-
in the sector in the coming years.
•
$284,2
Source: Macroplan, with data from Mordor Intelligence
Possible implications •
Exceptional opportunity to face and overcome the resistance of corporate entities and health professionals to the definitive use of telemedicine, including or especially in SUS, which will expand the scale of access and reduce unit costs not only in Basic Care but also in Secondary Health Care.
•
Possibility of introducing great improvements in the quality and speed of response to the demands associated with the "3rd wave" of COVID-19 that will affect people with chronic conditions not acute, chronic conditions acute and not acute
30
13. Greater digitalization of the public sector By 2030, with the greater integration of the Brazilian population in
Brazil - Percentage of digitized administrative public services between 2017 and 2022
online environments, it is expected that most public services that can be provided at a distance will be available on digital
98%
100%
platforms.
73%
80% 60%
•
In general, in the public area the term digitalization refers to the use of digital
40%
technologies, as part of government modernization strategies, to create public
20%
19%
55%
30%
0%
value and make government services and procedures available and accessible
2017
through digital means. •
47%
In Brazil, in 2011, the Access to Information Law was enacted. In 2014, the Internet
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Macroplan, with data from Governo Federal, Painel de Serviços
Civil Framework was created, followed by changes, in 2016, in Law No. 10,973/04 on Technological Innovation and in 2018, the formulation of the Brazilian Strategy for Digital Transformation (E-Digital), improvements in the regulatory environment that stimulate innovation in the public sector. •
Possible implications •
The pandemic has shown how much governments need to move forward in digital transformation, to enable citizens to access electronic services and documents and fast, transparent and traceable responses.
pandemic period there were 156 services and it has an estimated annual economy
•
Emergence of new technologies related to data analysis and security
of BRL 2.2 billion. The forecast is that all 3.8 thousand services offered by the
•
Opportunity to increase reliability in the public sector and inhibit corruption practices inherent in the "analogue and face-to-face models
•
Need for multiplication of public investment in connectivity
•
Expansion and diversification of integrated service platform
•
Technical and economic feasibility of adopting a single document and digital
Since 2019, the Federal Government has digitalized 729 of its services. During the
government will be digitalized by 2022. •
The GovTechs global market is worth around US$400 billion with an estimated US$ 1 trillion by 2025.
31
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
14. Expansion and improvement of public services
Brazil – Health Basic Attention Coverage (in %) 80 75 70 65 60 55
In recent years, facing the strong expansion of social demands, Brazil has expanded access to public services offered, especially those
75
62
related to health and education, although with low quality. By 2030, with the fiscal deterioration of the Brazilian state, there is great uncertainty Source: Governo Federal, Painel de Serviços
about the sustainability of the current model of expansion and operation of these services without increasing inflation. How to face this great challenge?
•
Brazil - Gross pre-school access rate (in %) 90 85 80 75 70 65
Historically, the expansion and improvement of public service provision in Brazil has been financed and sustained by expanding public spending.
•
In this model, a trade-off is observed, which was even highlighted by Marcos Mendes in his book "Why Brazil grows little?": while the services offered in health and
85 74
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
education contributed to the improvement of the quality of life, the increase in human capital and the reduction of poverty, they contributed to the structural expansion of public spending, which in turn contributed to the consolidation of a model of low growth and dissipative redistribution in our country. •
The maintenance of the current model of public resource allocation, which includes a large basket of privileges, in view of the country's fiscal exhaustion, makes impossible to sustain the expansion and improvement of essential public services (education, health, security, social protection), which leads either to reinflation or progressive deterioration of these services.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Possible implications •
Urgency in implementing a reform agenda that includes eliminating privileges and maintaining fiscal, and monetary discipline
•
Urgency in the broad review and focus of social protection programs.
•
Risk of "contracting" for another lost decade, with low growth and further deterioration of living conditions and social cohesion. 32
15. Expansion and improvement of social protection networks The size of the expenditure
Given the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is very likely that demands for the expansion and great improvement of
Participation of Social Security in federal government expenses in 2018
our social protection networks will intensify. The challenge is to do Social Security Others
•
BRL billions
it in a fiscally sustainable way. The increase in unemployment and the loss of income and perspective of the population increase the demand for new forms of social protection for individuals, families and
communities. At the moment, the idea of a minimum income program is gaining traction Pensions
•
OECD, in a recently released study, states that the benefits transferred to the poorest
Health
Social Assistance
Education
Public Safety
Soruce: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (National Treasury Secretariat) Note: Pension expenses include expenses with INSS, federal and military servants inactive and pensioners
already reach the 15% of GDP mark but are inadequately targeted. The institution's recommendation is to create social safety nets based on the expansion of conditional transfers. An example of this measure is the merger of the FGTS with unemployment insurance. According to the institution: "The two (...) could be combined to save resources and reduce contributions and could serve as an individual recharging
Possible implications •
Brazil stands out as a "laboratory" of exceptional value for experimental actions and policies to reduce inequality and mitigate poverty.
•
Urgency in the implementation of a reform agenda that includes the progressive elimination of privileges and maintenance of fiscal and monetary discipline to provide fiscal space for the expansion of social safety nets
•
Urgency in the broad review and focus of social protection programs.
•
Risk of "contracting" for another lost decade, with low growth and further deterioration of living conditions and social cohesion.
mechanism for a universal, family-based social safety net in which benefits are not conditional on formal employment”. •
With the end of the Emergency Aid Program, many Brazilians will go through a situation of economic vulnerability, since only a part of them will get a job and either they will be part of any other program or they will not be enough to provide for themselves. Therefore, the Bolsa Família program is expected to undergo remodeling, with greater coverage or increase in benefit value.
33
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
16. Expansion of health services coverage SUS (Brazilian National Health System) is the largest public health system in the world and has been decisive in facing the pandemic in Brazil. There is a favorable environment for the expansion of public health services and strong pressure for improving the system's performance during and after the crisis. The emergence of the "3rd wave" of COVID-19, as conceptualized by Eugênio Vilaça, one of the leading specialists in public health policies in Brazil, will probably last until 2022 and, together with the demographic transition, will press for the expansion of health service coverage in the face of chronic non-communicable diseases.
Health system in Minas Gerais may colapse this Thursday
With the pandemic, these challenges have become more urgent, highlighting the essentiality and limitations of public health services in terms of the ability to make infrastructure and logistics systems available quickly and on a large scale, as well as the availability of health professionals to provide services. • •
Health is Right: online mobilizations in defense of SUS mark 2020 World Health Day
In 2019, 75% of the population depended on public health services in Brazil, a number that could increase due to the COVID-19 crisis.
Possible implications
According to a Datafolha survey, ordered by CFM, in 2018, 22% of the respondents evaluate the service provided by SUS as terrible/bad, the main reason being the waiting time for service.
•
A very favorable environment for greater political support for expanding spending and improving the quality and productivity of services, including through publicprivate partnerships
•
Acceleration of the modernization of health care and health promotion systems aiming at effective universalization, quality and productivity leaps and greater integration between public and private actors
But SUS will gain even more relevance with the distribution and application of vaccines against COVID19, in its immense capillarity: 47 thousand basic health units and 38 thousand vaccination rooms equipped with competent professionals in all urban agglomerations of the country. While the demand for more and better services increases, the growth of the public budget reserved for health expands slowly. There is also a lot of waste and corruption practices, real "drains" in the allocation of resources. Despite the budget restrictions, SUS has been adapting to the recent modernization of medicine. Between 2016 and 2019, the Unified Health System carried out 3.5 million activities related to telehealth, such as teleconsulting, telediagnosis and teleducation. WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
34
17. Use of data and evidence in public policies and actions Diagram of indicators that impact on the HDI
Integrated, comprehensive data, robust evidence on past policy outcomes, and predictive modeling of future outcomes can guide
HDI
formulators in designing and implementing smarter policies with Life expectancy
higher benefits, lower capture risks, and lower costs.
Education
Income
Mortality in the different phases of life
•
Data intelligence allows us to identify and connect the challenges presented to Child mortality
policies, as well as to define the focuses and target audiences, generating greater
Youth mortality
Adult mortality
Elderly mortality
possibility of effectiveness in actions and greater political feasibility as to choices. Homicides rate
•
Death rate in traffic
Other causes
This intelligence, associated with the use of technologies and interpretive capacity, can facilitate the coordination of intersectoral actions, with the objective not only of
Cars
Motorcycles
Pedestrians
Others
increasing their effectiveness, but also of reducing costs. In Brazil, a case of success Source: Fontes & Morelli.
is the Cadastro Único (Beneficiaries Single Registry), which has integrated programs of diverse ministries to ensure greater focus by making use of technology to reach beneficiaries at lower cost. •
With the improvement of data quality and the advance of technology, administrative records can be obtained almost in real time. This possibility facilitates,
Possible implications •
In Brazil, although data and evidence, produced by public and private institutions, such as the Coronavirus Brazil and CoronaCidades initiatives, is still very strong the tendency to adopt narratives and 'half-truths' in any evidence supporting them.
•
There is still a long way to go before the use of data and evidence in Brazil becomes the dominant standard in the formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of public policies and actions in Brazil.
to a great extent, the continuous analysis of results and their use for the adoption of intensive monitoring and adjustments in public policy management.
35
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
18. Valorization of preventive health
Proportion of the total number of deaths that can be reduced with appropriate health promotion, prevention, control and attention to non-communicable diseases, by age group (2019)
As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is expected that
60%
health promotion and prevention will be increasingly valued, both
40%
on the demand side and on the service supply side.
20% 0%
•
In Brazil, 46% of all deaths are reduced with appropriate actions to promote health,
14% 13%
6%
7% 12%
19%
27%
36%
43%
49% 53% 55% 56% 55%
5 to a 9 10 a 14 a 19 a 24 a 29 a 34 a 39 a 44 a 49 a 59 a 64 65 a 69 10 to 14 15 15 to 19 20 20 to 24 25 25 to 29 30 30 to 34 35 35 to 39 40 40 to 44 45 45 to 49 50 50 a to 54 54 55 55 to 59 60 60 to 65 to 69 70 70 a to 74 74 Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. Y.O. anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos anos
Elaboration Macroplan with data form DATASUS
prevention, control and attention to non-communicable diseases. •
Previous conditions, such as availability of drinking water, sewage and sanitary treatment,
collection and safe disposal of garbage, become central when it comes to preventing and
Hospitalizations caused by diseases related to the lack of sanitation
facing epidemics. •
January
In addition, on the demand side, people, families and communities themselves are more likely
February
March
Quarter
to adopt healthier habits and practices (such as more hygiene, wearing masks, distance and
Hospitalizations
physical exercise). •
SUS bed occupancy (%)
On the supply side, there is likely to be an expansion and diversification of public policies and
Cost (BRL)
voluntary actions by private agents, or public-private partnerships. •
Genetic engineering, by establishing techniques of identification and manipulation of human
Source: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental (ABES), June 2020
genes, will continue to be driven by the prevention and treatment of genetic and chronic diseases. •
At the same time, educational actions aimed at hygiene and prophylactic measures should be adopted in various ways and in various spaces of social life. There is certainty that these
Possible implications •
Multiplication of opportunities for social and technological innovations in the health field
•
Prevention and health promotion creates new business opportunities for insurers and private health operators
measures will be incorporated as a standard of behavior of the will only be a "passing trend" that will be diluted with the overcoming of COVID-19 in Brazil. To check.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
36
19. Social inequalities Brazil - Gini coefficient
Will our political economy sustainably reverse the advance of social inequalities and the privileges and distortions in the allocation of public spending, or will we continue on the current path of preserving inequalities? This is a critical uncertainty for the future of our country.
BRASIL - Coeficiente de Gini 0,550 0,545 0,540
0,535 0,530
•
There is a consensus among experts on the subject, among them economist Adriana Fontes, that
0,515
education, access to work and health conditions, among others. A measure commonly used to
0,510
world.
0,537
0,546 0,547 0,545 0,545 0,545 0,546 0,546 0,543 0,543 0,544 0,544 0,544
0,538
0,533 0,526
0,524
0,520
Brazilian society is historically marked by high inequality in several dimensions: income, quality of measure inequality, the Gini coefficient of per capita household income, is one of the highest in the
•
0,525
0,545 0,540
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Fonte: Pnad continua. Projeções logísticas considerando o período de 2012 a 2019.
Source: IBGE, Pnad contínua. Logistic projections considering the period from 2012 to 2019.
The downward trend observed in the early 2000s was interrupted in the second half of 2010. With the economic recession, the Gini coefficient rose from 0.524 in 2015 to 0.543 in 2019. The more perverse face of inequality, extreme poverty increased from 4.5% in 2014 to 6.5% in 2019, corresponding to 13.7 million people living on an income below their basic needs.
•
The Covid-19 pandemic brings an aggravating factor to this scenario as its greatest effects fall on
Possible implications •
Urgency in the broad review and focalisation of sustainable social protection and social inclusion programs
•
High relevance and urgency in the strong expansion of access and permanence to quality public education networks from early childhood to high school and vocational education
•
Urgency in quality retraining and professional qualification programs
•
Risk of " contracting" for another lost decade, marked maintenance of our social inequalities and further erosion of social cohesion.
the most vulnerable families: informal workers, those who cannot carry out their activities through remote work, children from lower-income families without classes almost all year round. •
In 2020, emergency aid prevented an increase in poverty and income inequality. For the year that begins, with the extinction of this aid, a strong impact on the incomes of the poorest families with effects on poverty and inequality is expected.
•
In this decade, the trajectory of these indicators will depend largely on the effectiveness of income transfer policies in mitigating the effects of the crisis on the lower income classes, and on the recovery of the labor market, which tends to be slow given the prolonged crisis and the effects of the pandemic.
37
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
20. Valorization of environmental
Protecting the environment as a priority after a pandemic (research)
sustainability Does not know Disagrees Agrees
The valorization of environmental sustainability is gaining traction worldwide, including among large private investors. It will gain new momentum with the Joe Biden Government. Unfortunately, official Brazil has abandoned its tradition and pro-environmental effort and since 2018
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Ipsos, Pesquisa de Prioridade no mundo pós-covid – meio ambiente, June 2020.
has assumed an "anti-environmental footprint" in what is supported by society and the business community. Will this new policy be a passing
Increased deforestation -Legal Amazon
cloud or will it consolidate itself as a new standard? As industries, transportation networks and companies closed during the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a sudden drop in carbon emissions. Pollution levels in New York City reduced by 50% compared to March 2019. In China, coal use has dropped 40% at the six largest plants since the last quarter of 2019 and the proportion of days with "good air quality" has increased 11.4% compared to last year. The International Energy Agency estimates an 8% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Inpe, PRODES (desmatamento), July 2020.
for 2020. But according to the United Nations, this reduction would need to be 7.6% each year
between 2020 and 2030 to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. •
According to Inpe, 3,069.57 km² of Amazon were deforested in 2020, an increase of 25% from
Possible implications •
January to June compared to the devastation in the same period of 2019. •
•
Although 85% of Brazilians defend that the government should prioritize the preservation of the environment in the post-Pandemic recovery, 41% of Brazilians admit that the issue of environmental protection is not on their own list of priorities at the moment.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
• •
Strategic competitive advantage if Brazil assumes an "environmental footprint" at the macro, medium and micro levels. Global relevance of the country in the three environmental agendas: blue, green and brown. Growing risk of Brazil's exposure to extreme events. Multiplication of business opportunities related to the environment in Brazil: recovery, recycling, certification of compliance, preservation, adaptation to ESG requirements, environmental engineering.
38
21. Social polarization and political tensions Is it worth talking to people with opposing political views?
Since the beginning of the last decade we have entered a "wave" of Total India South Africa Brazil Chile Turkey Argentina Malaysia Colombia Peru Sweden Hungary Russia France Mexico Italy Spain United States United Kingdom Australia Canada Belgium South Korea Germany Poland Japan
polarization and tension that divert attention, energies and political resources from the resolution of structural bottlenecks in the country, with strong economic and social losses. Will we continue to insist on this game of polarization and radicalism during this decade? Political construction implies the practice of discussion of ideas and dialogue, but in contexts of radicalization and low tolerance, there is no room left for dialogue to resolve conflicts - imagine, then, with a pandemic! In fact, the lack of alignment between the three levels of government in confronting Covid-19, the belligerent behavior of leaders and authorities in conducting the health and economic crisis and its repercussions on social networks have reinforced in Brazil the movement observed internationally of social polarization and increased intolerance. •
For 32% of Brazilians, it is not worth talking to people with opposing political views. Moreover,
No
only a quarter of Brazilians indicated trying to understand the divergent motivations. These
Yes
Source: IPSOS BRASIL 2020: A AQUARELA VIROU MOSAICO?
data suggest a strong propensity to political intolerance of the Brazilian, which places the country as the third most polarized in a ranking of 30 nations, according to the IPSOS Institute. •
In Brazil, 2013 was a turning point for both an increase in social polarization and the rise of conservatism. During the 2018 elections and now during the coronavirus pandemic, intolerance between groups with different political views seems to have reached its peak. The tendency is for this polarization to continue, because of a consolidated conservatism, but in a more tenuous way, since the level of government approval has been falling substantially.
39
Possible implications •
It is important and urgent to build a broad concertation of anti-polarization forces.
•
There is a high risk that Brazil will hire another "lost decade" if the scenario of polarization and tension persists.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
22. Redefinition of public spaces
Evolution of daily trips by main mode - Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region
13.7 million 12.9 million non-motorized trips
The introduction of new social and work habits in function of the pandemic must involve the redesign and reorganization of city spaces, public places and patterns of occupation of territories.
13.3 million 12.6 million By foot
Increase of
0.4 million 0.3 million By bike
Increase of
6%
24%
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Metro SP, Pesquisa Origem Destino 50 anos, Version 04, july 2019.
•
A recent study showed that during the pandemic, 46% of Sao Paulo's inhabitants began to give more value to the commerce and services available in the
Main changes in relation to the neighborhood where they live (%)
neighborhoods where they live; and 30% now pay more attention to local public Began to give more value to local commerce and service providers
services. •
The commuting to work in the state of São Paulo even reduced by 37%, above the
Began to pay more attention to the public services available and those lacking in the neighborhood
national average, which was 34%.
Met or bought in commercial establishments they did not know before
In this sense, the pandemic should (i) reinforce the need for more polycentric cities, with easier access to public services and nearby businesses; (ii) provide for the
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Instituto Cidades Sustentáveis, Pesquisa Viver em São Paulo: Especial Pandemia (parte 02), June 2020.
construction of more pulverized public leisure spaces with new uses of already consolidated public spaces, such as closing streets for pedestrians only, the use of sidewalks by restaurants, for example; and (iii) strengthen the use of active modals (on foot or bicycle) and shared travel.
Possible implications •
Stimulus to a deep revision and updating of the central concepts of urbanism and urban space management, at least in Western countries.
•
Emergence of adaptive reconfigurations of closed and semi-closed spaces of large public events
•
Expansion of new real estate business opportunities with valuation of externalities (available or created)
These transformations will bring new challenges, especially to municipalities in terms of regulation and operation of urban space, particularly the new Master Plans.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
40
23. More collaborative and global health research The rapid dissemination of Covid-19 has intensified collaborative health
Open Research Platforms specifically created for the coronavirus
research, including on a global scale. Networks of scientists and companies have broken time records in vaccine discovery and production. WHO has joined this trend by creating the Access to Covid 19 Tools Accelerator (or ACT Accelerator) program.
•
In 2018, 38% of scientific papers published in Brazil included co-authors from other countries. The rates of international collaboration showed significant growth in the last decade, rising from 25% to 38%, between 2008 and 2018, for Brazil as a whole.
•
In recent years, health research has become increasingly global and collaborative. It is estimated that 20% of scientific and medical articles have international co-authors.
•
CORD-19 (Covid-19 Open Research Dataset): 57 Thousand entries for data mining and machine learning
“Covid 19 Data Portal” Data Hub’s Process Chain, created in order to study the virus
The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the need and importance of joint initiatives and greater collaboration between countries, public and private sectors in the race for the vaccine and treatments for the coronavirus. In addition to coordination in the R&D
Possible implications
phase, the OECD advocates that pharmaceutical industries also work collaboratively with governments in view of the need to vaccinate between 50 and 75% of the world's
•
New opportunities for Brazilian institutions and professionals of high level in the field to consolidate their insertion in global health networks and related themes.
•
Reduction of time and improvement of the quality of research, production and distribution of medicines and health supplies.
population to eradicate the virus. •
Europe is a reference in collaborative research, especially in rare disease research and clinical trials for children, where the number of participants for the trials is reduced by considering only one country.
41
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
24. Gradual valorization of conscious consumption A new global consumer habit, which will emerge gradually, is the search for companies, stores and products with good health indicators, such as
Change in mentality regarding consumption due to Covid -19 (research)
improved cleaning, use of masks and employee care, minimum (or zero) use of chemicals and/or fats. Another consequence with impact on consumption is the revision of values which can boost the consumption of products and services strongly associated with health and well -being.
•
In the global market, 79% of small businesses offering green products and services say they have a competitive advantage over their rivals. In Brazil, 89% of the population says they are concerned about the use of disposable and non-recyclable products. More conscious about money spending
•
Search brand and product options before purchasing
In a survey conducted by McKinsey, respondents said they are more aware of how they are spending their money. In addition, 60% of Brazilians are consuming more fresh and
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: McKinsey, A global view of how consume behavior is changing amid COVID-19
non-industrialized products during the period of social distancing compared to the previous period. •
There is also a movement to strengthen identity policies that impact on consumer acts, valuing companies and products that identify with their causes in various fields:
Possible implications •
Great opportunities for segmented and niche-focused production and delivery strategies from access to data from target audiences
•
Multiplication of narratives that explore the synergy of 'conscious consumption' with health prevention and promotion
environment and ecology, human rights, political positioning, gender, religious, among others. The economic crisis also affects conscious consumption to the extent that it imposes real restrictions on the most affected social segments.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
42
25. Stimulus to the valorization of sense of collectivity and social solidarity
89% of favela residents received some donation
NGOs and companies
The confrontation of COVID-19 has increased the sense of collectivity,
Neighbours, friends or relatives Government
both among vulnerable social groups - which have organized themselves
Church
to obtain mutual help - and among companies and private entrepreneurs
Others
or even isolated individuals who begin to recognize the impact of their actions on society as a whole and even on the planet (butterfly effect). The dissemination of social solidarity actions among institutions and people from different social classes, generations and among companies, with the donation of work for the
Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Data Favela, CUFA e Locomotiva, Pandemia na Favela, June 2020
Amounts donated by the " Todos pela Saúde" program (in millions of BRL) 80
population at risk, of inputs for hospitals and of diverse resources for the health area. This
43
increases social capital, producing positive externalities that may be good legacies past the
16,5
pandemic. •
According to the Brazilian Association of Fund Capturing (ABCR) the largest amount
Hospitals and Hospitais e infrastructure infraestrutura
donated was made by companies, which contributed with BRL 4.8 billion, which represents
Cesta de alimentos Food and hygiene basket e higiene
17 Covid-19 TestesTests
Confecção de Masks production máscaras
82% being companies in the financial sector the protagonists. Elaboration Macroplan. Source: Todos Pela Saúde
•
The " Todos Pela Saúde“(“All for Health”) Program, idealized by Itaú Bank, has already
received more than BRL1 billion to exercise its role of Inform, Protect, Care and Resume. Among the destinations of the funds raised are: construction of hospitals, acquisition of
Possible implications
respirators and loan for entrepreneurs. •
It is estimated that more than half of the favela residents made some kind of donation
•
Two initiatives are carriers of the future: the " Todos pela Saúde" Alliance (led by the Itaú Foundation and physician Paulo Chap Chap) and the creation of the operation of the Institute for Health Policy Studies (led by economist Armínio Fraga)
•
Considering Brazil's historical formation, there is a high probability that the great majority of "waves" of social solidarity and more collectivity will dissolve over time.
throughout this pandemic. •
Without the donations most families would not be able to feed themselves, pay the basic bills and 72% would not be able to acquire necessary products for hygiene and cleaning.
43
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
26. Slowdown of globalization By 2030 the process of economic globalization will lose momentum or even regress moderately. Regional blocks may occupy new spaces.
World trade (as % of World GDP) 1989-2018 from accelerated globalization to "slowbalisation”
Everything indicates that nowadayswe are in an era of "slowbalisation". •
The period from 1989 to 2008 was the "golden age of globalization": global trade grew 22.2 points as a proportion of GDP, foreign direct investment multiplied, with strong internationalization of value chains, reduction of global poverty, especially in China, and insertion of millions of dollars in the global market.
•
The 2008 global crisis curbed the expansion of globalization and stimulated the emergence of new nationalisms - "America First", for example - and political demands for protectionist measures. Automation and service have reinforced these movements. With the Covid-19 pandemic, the protectionist wave gained strength in both political and economic terms.
•
Source: Trade (% of GDP), The World Bank Data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS. Access on 02/05/2020
Current forecasts anticipate a 13-32% decline in merchandise trade, a 30-40% reduction in foreign direct investment and a 44-80% drop in international airline passengers by 2020. Figures suggest a reversal of recent gains from globalization, but do not signal a fundamental
•
collapse of international market integration.
Possible implications
Restrictions on movement between countries and greater health barriers are also emerging,
•
Increased competition between countries for sustainable insertion into the global market
•
Risk of proliferation of nationalist waves and opportunist protectionism
reducing trade. Several global chains, now heavily dependent on a few supplier countries, may experience geographical reconfigurations to reduce vulnerabilities. •
Is this a new trend or just a "passing cloud"?
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
44
27. Search for less dependence on supplies and equipment from Asian countries
By 2030, countries will likely create stricter protocols for the trade
Main imports from China
of basic health needs products or establish minimum stocks, considering the 2020 supply crisis.
•
Telecommunications equipment, including parts and accessories
The worldwide dependence of a few countries in Asia, such as India and China, for the worldwide fragility in the access to these goods, including Brazil. It is estimated that 60%
Thermionic valves and tubes, cold cathode or photo-cathode, diodes and transistors
of global vaccine production capacity is currently located in India.
The productive chain may be reviewed to reduce dependence as health safety gets to the heart of the government agenda. The recent race for vaccines has accentuated this
Electric power machines and parts
Heating and cooling equipment and parts
Household electrial and non-electrical equipment
Pumps, centrifuges, air compressors, fans and exhaust fans
Processing machines… Insecticides, rotoinsecticides, fungicides, herbicides, growth regulators ...
Electrical machines and devices
Platforms, boats and other floating structures
Parts and accessories (except covers, cases and the like) for data processing machines or ...
Medicines and pharmaceutical products, except veterinary
Other products – processing industry
supply of inputs for medicines, equipment and health devices has made clear the
•
Organic-inorganic compounds, heterocyclic compounds, nucleic acids and their salts and sulfonamides
Chemical fertilizers or fertilizers, except crude fertilizers
Fabrics and wefts...
Medical and surgical instruments and apparatus...
Other plastic items
Other articles of base metal...
Flat-rolled products of iron or nonalloy steel
Aluminum
Other plastics …
Motorcycles, bicycles Piston engines and its…
Plates, sheets,…
Rubber tires, bands…
Pigments
Knitted fabrics
Machines for…
Other…
Automotive vehicles parts and accessories
Tools…
Lamps and… Instruments and…
Rotating electric generators and its parts
Pumps…
Acids…
Paper and cardboard Wires…
Other machines…
Electrical devices for connecting or protecting circuits
Nitrogen-function compounds
Machines…
Textile yarns Other items of mineral materials
Tubes and…
movement in Brazil. Source: ComexStat, Ministério da Economia
•
One fifth of Brazilian imports comes from China, the country being Brazil's largest trading partner. Between January 2009 and November 2020, the total imported in dollars more than doubled, from US$1.35 billion to US$3.4 billion.
•
There is a cost in the production and storage of inputs and equipment that should be
Possible implications •
Risk of creating market reserves, which can generate great economic inefficiencies or technological delays.
•
Need to formulate hedging strategies in the face of the risks of collapse of supplies of inputs, products or services essential to the health of the population.
taken into consideration. This type of expenditure was justifiable for the purpose of a war or climate catastrophe - see oil stocks etc. The pandemic has taken up the issue again in the public debate and may broaden the acceptance of a protection network for health crises.
45
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
28. Higher relative growth of Asian countries By 2030, Asian countries will concentrate greater economic power
Historical role from Asia Share of GDP worldwide on parity of purchasing power
than the United States and Europe combined, with China as the engine, which by then will have consolidated itself as the largest economy in the world, a process that will be speeded up by the faster recovery of the country from the crisis resulting from Covid -19. •
The various Asias
Asian countries will be the first to emerge from the economic crisis from Covid-19,
West Asia (Middle East)
returning for significant GDP growth already in 2021. •
South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka)
The Asian market is less dependent on exports, with a growing policy of cooperation and trade links, considering that currently 52% of trade is intra-regional.
•
Indo-Pacific
Asia is already experiencing a "new industrial revolution", considering that two thirds of
The use of technology is comprehensive and diffuse, generating a network prepared for the new forms of work (home office, business flexibility and workforce relocation), and which is currently ahead in the deployment of 5g telephony networks.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Northeast Asia (China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan) Southeast Asia (Brunei, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore) Oceania (Extended Asia – Australia, New Zealand…)
Source: José Augusto Fernandes
the existing industrial robots in the world are used in the region. •
Central Asia (the 5 “tan”)
Possible implications •
The maintenance of China as Brazil's main trading partner, mainly due to the large volume of commodities that are exported, should not suffer alterations in the short and medium term.
•
Greater use of Soft Power tools to expand the regional culture (Bollywood, K-Pop, TikTok, etc).
•
Valuable windows of opportunities for the expansion and diversification of commercial ties with the countries of Asia. 46
4 Strategies insights
5 Subtitle | Driving Forces
Of these 28 drivers the ones that reveal the
greatest multiplier effect and, therefore, constitute the focus for Strategic Insights
MOTRICITY (Pow er of influence of each vect or over t he ot hers)
of change,10 are
1. LENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS (3) 2. ACCELERATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY (5) 3. REVISION OF THE ROLE AND WAY OF ACTING OF THE STATE 4. EMERGENCE OF NEW FORMS OF SOCIAL RELATIONSHIP (1) 5. VALORIZATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH (1)
6
Public data, Big data, analytics
Digital business
FOCUS FOR STRATEGIC INSIGHTS
14 11
1
Automation and robotization
Expansion of public and private indebtedness
13
8 E-commerce
15
9
12 Virtual connections and social networks as a source of information
Higher unemployment and poverty
10
More sanitary safety
2
Distance education
17 4 7
16
Remote work
3
19
20
18
26 24 21 25 27
23
22
28
DEPEND E NC E (I nt ensit y of influence received by each vect or)
Strategy
Public sector: more deliveries and less
Insights
cost to the citizen
Major guidelines
Private sector: more competitiveness in
for the decade
business environment after Covid-19
Facing the signs of
49
the present and the
Third sector: More leading role and
future
effectiveness
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Five major transformations in the decade
Strategic Insights Public sector (Brazilian State) More deliveries and
Improvement of the quality and the productivity of public expenditure •
change 1
4
5
8
9
Intensification and acceleration of the digitalization of services to expand the access to public good and services •
Main links: Driving force (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity, and Drivers of change 2
4
5
6
7
8
9
Strengthening of social cohesion and reduce income and opportunity inequalities •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity, (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis and (V) Emergence of new forms of social
less cost to the citizen
Main links: Driving force (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state, and Drivers of
relationship, and Drivers of change 4
8
Sustainment of fiscal balance, monetary discipline and flexible currency exchange •
Main links: Driving forces (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state and (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis, and Drivers of change 8
Reform and modernization of the State in all its constituted powers and levels •
Main links: Driving force (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state, and Drivers of change 2
4
5
6
7
8
9
Drivers of change of this strategic insight: (1) Public and private indebtedness; (2) Virtual connections and social networks as a source of information; (3) More sanitary safety; (4) Automation and robotization; (5) Public data, Big Data and Analytics; (6) Digital businesses; (7) E-commerce; (8) Distance education; (9) Remote work.
Five major transformations in the decade
Strategic Insights
Competitive insertion in networks and digital business •
Main links: Driving force (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity, and Drivers of change 1
2
4
5
6
7
8
Re-evaluation and update of current business models and production methods
Private sector (Companies operating in Brazil)
•
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity and (IV) Emergence of new forms of social relationship, and Drivers of change 1
in business environment after Covid-19
4
5
6
7
9
Prospection and exploration of emerging business opportunities in post-COVID •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity, (V) Valorization of public health and (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state, and Drivers of change 1 3
More competitiveness
3
2
4
5
6
7
8
2
9
Preparation and acceleration of innovation effort, quality and productivity at all levels of the company •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity and (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis, and Drivers of change 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Reinforcement and update of strategic business management capabilities and resources •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity and (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis, and Drivers of change 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Drivers of change of this strategic insight: (1) Public and private indebtedness; (2) Virtual connections and social networks as a source of information; (3) More sanitary safety; (4) Automation and robotization; (5) Public data, Big Data and Analytics; (6) Digital businesses; (7) E-commerce; (8) Distance education; (9) Remote work.
Five major transformations in the decade
Strategic Insights Third sector
Expansion of the capacity to produce and demonstrate significant impacts •
Main links: Driving forces (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state and (IV) Emergence of new forms of social relationship, and Drivers of change 2
4
5
6
7
Densification of performance in the spaces of needs ("markets") opened by the revision of the role and form of performance of the State •
Main links: Driving force (V) Valorization of public health, and Drivers of change 2
4
5
7
institutions
Achievement and maintenance of high impact leading role in the spheres
More leading role
•
8
of social protection, public health and environment Main links: Driving forces (V) Valorization of public health, (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis and (IV) Emergence of new forms of social relationship, and Drivers
and effectiveness
of change 2
4
5
6
7
8
9
Active insertion, with quality, in networks and virtual communities •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity, (V) Valorization of public health and (III) Revision of the role and way of acting of the state, and Drivers of change 2
4
5
6
7
8
Continuous improvement of accountability, transparency and governance •
Main links: Driving forces (II) Acceleration of the economic and social connectivity and (I) Length and intensity of the economic and social crisis, and Drivers of change 2
5
7
Drivers of change of this strategic insight: (1) Public and private indebtedness; (2) Virtual connections and social networks as a source of information; (3) More sanitary safety; (4) Automation and robotization; (5) Public data, Big Data and Analytics; (6) Digital businesses; (7) E-commerce; (8) Distance education; (9) Remote work.
5 References
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 1. Expansion of public and private indebtedness •
Instituição Fiscal Independente
•
senado.leg.br/bdsf/bitstream/handle/id/579879/RAF46_NOV2020_3_Cenarios_divida.pdf. (2) PEIC/CNC - 11/2020.
•
Serasa Experian. Boletim Econômico 08/2020.
•
Banco Central do Brasil
2. Higher unemployment and poverty •
PNAD Contínua 2029 – IBGE
•
SIS/IBGE 2019
•
PNAD Contínua 2029 – IBGE.
•
SIS/IBGE 2019
•
POF/IBGE 2017-2018
•
IBRE/FGV "PIB per capita deve levar dez anos para voltar ao nível de 2013" - Valor Econômico, 12/04/2020, p. A6
3. More sanitary safety •
2018 Annual review of diseases prioritized under the Research and Development Blueprint
•
Cartilha de Vigilância Sanitária - ANVISA 2002
•
OMS - WASH for Health (4) SNIS 2018
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
54
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 4. Expansion and diversification of distance education •
Forbes, "Educação a distância: um modelos que só cresce". Available at: https://forbes.com.br/negocios/2019/03/educacao-a-distancia-um-modelo-que-so-cresce/
•
Ministério da Educação
•
FIA
•
Censo Escolar
5. Growing use of public data, big data and analytics •
Business Software Alliance
•
International Data Corporation
•
Brasscom, Relatório Setorial 2019, April 2020, available at: https://brasscom.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/P-2020-04-09-Coletiva-de-Imprensa-Relat%C3%B3rioSetorial-2019-v15.pdf
6. Significant growth of digital business
55
•
TIC Domicílios 2018
•
TechTarget, e-business, available at : https://searchcio.techtarget.com/definition/e-business.
•
)Distrito Fintech Report, Brasil 2020.
•
Penser, maio 2020, available at : https://www.penser.co.uk/article/fintech/fintech-in-latin-america-brazils-biggest-fintechs/.
•
Ibid.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 7. Dissemination of Remote Work •
Valor Investe, available at : https://valorinveste.globo.com/objetivo/empreenda-se/noticia/2020/04/14/home-office-deve-crescer-30percent-apos-crise-de-coronavirus-
aponta-fgv.ghtml. •
TEC Institute, Tendências de Marketing e Tecnologia 2020, April 2020.
•
Infomoney, available at : https://www.infomoney.com.br/economia/como-a-pandemia-de-coronavirus-pode-impulsionar-o-exodo-urbano-no-futuro/.
8. Acceleration of automation and robotization •
Folha de São Paulo. Available at: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2018/01/1951904-16-milhoes-de-brasileiros-sofrerao-com-automacao-na-proximadecada.shtml
•
Instituto IPSOS
•
Febraban
•
International Federation of Robotics
9. Significant growth in e-commerce •
Shopify, What is Ecommerce?, available at : https://www.shopify.com/encyclopedia/what-is-ecommerce.
•
Ebit, Relatório Webshoppers – 41st Edition.
•
Valor Econômico, available at : https://valor.globo.com/publicacoes/suplementos/noticia/2020/05/25/compras-pela-internet-vao-ultrapassar-os-r-100-bi.ghtml
•
McKinsey & Company – O novo consumidor pós COVID, May 2020.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
56
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 10. Intensification of virtual connections and social networks as a source of information •
McKinsey, Brazil 2020 Opportunity Tree.
•
Ibid.
•
Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Infected texts June 2020, available at : https://eu.boell.org/en/2020/06/22/infected-texts-disinformation-meets-polarization-brazil.
•
Google e IAT, Coronavírus: o mundo nunca mais será o mesmo, May 2020.
11. Reduction of data privacy threats •
TIC Domicílios
•
Lee, Brock, Camargo Advogados
•
Serasa Experian
•
Cyber Security Insights
•
Comissão de Ciência e Tecnologia, Comunicação e Informática da Câmara dos Deputados
12. Consolidation of telemedicine
57
•
Globo Gente: A nova realidade da telemedicina. Available at: https://gente.globo.com/a-nova-realidade-da-telemedicina/
•
Accelerate 2030 PNUD/UN
•
Governo Federal, available at: https://www.gov.br/secretariageral/pt-br/noticias/presidente-sanciona-lei-sobre-uso-da-telemedicina.
•
Latin American Journal of Telehealth, Telemedicina como instrumento de suporte na Atenção Primária à Saúde, August 2017.
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 13. Greater digitalization of the public sector •
OCDE, Broadband Policies for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2016.
•
CAF, Policy Brief#14: GovTechs e o futuro do governo, June 2020.
•
Ministério da Economia, available at: https://www.gov.br/economia/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/2020/junho/governo-ultrapassa-150-servicos-transformados-em-digitais-noperiodo-de-pandemia.
•
Folha de São Paulo, available at: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2020/02/digitalizacao-de-servicos-publicos-cria-mercado-para-startups.shtml.
14. Expansion and improvement of public services •
“Por que o Brasil cresce pouco?”. Marcos Mendes, 2014, Editora Campus Elsevier
15. Expansion and improvement of social protection networks •
OECD, Retrato Econômico do Brasil
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
58
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 16. Expansion of health services coverage •
Plano Nacional de Saúde 2020-2023, Ministério da Saúde, available at: https://bvsms.saude.gov.br/bvs/publicacoes/plano_nacional_saude_2020_2023.pdf#page=110&zoom=100,72,106
•
CFM/Datafolha, 2018, Opinião dos brasileiros sobre o atendimento público na área de saúde, available at: https://portal.cfm.org.br/images/PDF/datafolha_sus_cfm2018.pdf.
•
Plano Nacional de Saúde 2020-2023, Ministério da Saúde
•
Conselho Nacional de Saúde, February 2020. Available at: https://conselho.saude.gov.br/ultimas-noticias-cns/1044-saude-perdeu-r-20-bilhoes-em-2019-por-causa-da-ec-95-2016
•
Metropoles, June 2020, Available at: https://www.metropoles.com/saude/covid-19-butantan-planeja-distribuir-vacina-pelo-sus-em-junho-de-2021
17. Use of data and evidence in public policies and actions •
Gustavo Morelli e Adriana Fontes, O Brasil do Futuro, Fábio Giambiagi (Org), Chapter 19. 2020.
•
BBC, April 2020, available at: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-52449017 . May 2020, available at: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/geral-52548653
•
IPEA, Nota técnica nº 64, May 2020, available at: http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/10034/1/NT_64_Diset_%20Politicas%20p%C3%BAblicas%20para%20pesquisa%20e%20inovacao%20frente%20a%20crise%20da%20Covid_19.pdf
•
Coronavírus Brasil, available at: https://covid.saude.gov.br/
•
Coronacidades, available at: https://coronacidades.org/
18. Valorization of preventive health •
TABNET DATASUS. available at: http://tabnet.datasus.gov.br/
•
Sistema Nacionaobre Saneamento (SNIS), access in July 2020, available at: http://www.snis.gov.br/painel-informacoes-saneamento-brasil/web/
•
Trata Brasil, July 2019, available at: http://www.tratabrasil.org.br/blog/2019/07/16/investimentos-necessarios-para-universalizacao-do-saneamento/
•
KPMG, Quanto custa universalizar o saneamento no Brasil, June 2020, available at: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/br/pdf/2020/07/kpmg-quanto-custa-universalizar-o-saneamentono-brasil
59
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 19. Social inequalities •
IBGE. Síntese dos Indicadores Sociais 2020. Available at: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv101760.pdf. Access on 01/05/2021.
•
US$ 1.90 per day on terms of Purchase Power Parity.
•
Menezes-Filho, Naércio. Programas sociais e finanças públicas. Valor Econômico. 07/17/2020.
20. Valorization of environmental sustainability •
Agenda que demonstra compromisso em preservar a natureza, evitando, mitigando ou compensando danos irreversíveis ao meio ambiente
•
BBC, Will Covid-19 have a lasting impact on the environment?, March 2020, available at: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronaviruson-the-environment
•
The Economist, Countries should seize the moment to flatten the climate curve, May 2020, available at: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/21/countries-shouldseize-the-moment-to-flatten-the-climate-curve
•
European Central Bank, Never waste a crisis: COVID-19, climate change and monetary policy, July 2020. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200717~1556b0f988.en.html
•
G1 Natureza, Amazônia bate novo recorde nos alertas de desmatamento em junho, July 2020, available at: https://g1.globo.com/natureza/noticia/2020/07/10/amazoniabate-novo-recorde-nos-alertas-de-desmatamento-em-junho-aumento-dos-ultimos-11-meses-foi-de-64percent-aponta-inpe.ghtml
•
Instituto Ipsos, June 2020, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/pt-br/para-85-dos-brasileiros-protecao-do-meio-ambiente-deve-ser-prioridade-na-retomada-pos-pandemia
21. Social polarization and political tensions •
IPSOS BRASIL 2020: A AQUARELA VIROU MOSAICO?
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
60
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 22. Redefinition of public spaces •
Instituto Cidades Sustentáveis, Pesquisa Viver em São Paulo: Especial Pandemia (part 2), June 2020.
23. More collaborative and global health research •
FAPESP, Publicações Científicas e colaborações internacionais, June 2019, available at: https://revistapesquisa.fapesp.br/publicacoes-cientificas-e-colaboracoesinternacionais/
•
International cooperation to promote advances in medicine, available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2700441/
•
OECD, Tackling coronavírus (COVID-19), May 2020, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/treatments-and-a-vaccine-for-covid-19-the-needfor-coordinating-policies-on-r-d-manufacturing-and-access-6e7669a9/
•
The impact of collaboration: The value of UK medical research to EU science and health, May 2017, available at: https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/sites/default/files/main_report_v8.pdf
24. Gradual valorization of conscious consumption •
McKinsey & Company, A global view of how consumer behavior is changing amid COVID-19, July 2020, available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Marketing%20and%20Sales/Our%20Insights/A%20global%20view%20of%20how%20consumer%20be havior%20is%20changing%20amid%20COVID%2019/20200707/covid-19-global-consumer-sentiment-20200707.pdf
•
Ibid.
•
McKinsey & Company, O novo consumidor pós COVID, May 2020
•
Instituto Ipsos, Coleção Ipsos Flair: Brasil 2020: A aquarela virou mosaico?, October 2019, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2019-11/por_ipsos_flair_brasil_2020.pdf
61
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
Main sources used or consulted in the elaboration of the 28 Vectors of Change 25. Stimulus to the valorization of sense of collectivity and social solidarity •
Todos Pela Saúde. Banco Itaú.
26. Slowdown of globalization •
The World Bank Data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS. Access on 02/05/2020.
27. Search for less dependence on supplies and equipment from Asian countries •
ComexStat, Ministério da Economia
•
Folha de São Paulo, April 2020, available at: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2020/04/contra-pandemia-finlandia-abre-estoque-de-equipamentos-medico-e-
militar-da-guerra-fria.shtml •
Revista Problemas Brasileiros #458, A dança das potências, July 2020.
28. Higher relative growth of Asian countries •
Global Trends 2030 – NIC/EUA. Available at: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf
•
McKinsey Global Institute, “The Future of Asia is Now”, July 2019
•
FMI. Tao Zhang, July 2020
WHAT WILL BECOME OF BRAZIL AFTER COVID -19? | A PROSPECTIVE ESSAY BY 2030
62
6 About Macroplan
Our project team Elaboration Claudio Porto
Karla Régnier
Mariana Salles
Thiago Gallian
Tatiane Limani
Mentoring and final revision
Stage 1 Coordination
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Elaboration
Design
Adriana Fontes
Andréa Belfort
Elissa Rasma
Isabela Reis
Lucas Cândido
Natália Demartino
Marcos Maestri
Raphaela Moreira
Thematic collaboration
English translation
64
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