101328883

SPIS TREŚCI

3RG]LĊNRZDQLD

2G DXWRUyZ

:SURZDG]HQLH 'RNąG ]PLHU]D HOHNWURHQHUJHW\ND"

,QWURGXFWLRQ :KHUH LV WKH SRZHU LQGXVWU\ KHDGLQJ"

A.

UWARUNKOWANIE TRANSFORMACJI

21

1.

3URFHV\ WUDQVIRUPDFML

2.

(PLVMH MDNR PLDUD WUDQVIRUPDFML (QHUJLD HOHNWU\F]QD MDNR NUZLRRELHJ JRVSRGDUNL :]URVW JRVSRGDUF]\ D HQHUJLD HOHNWU\F]QD 7UDQVIRUPDFMD MDNR ]PLDQD WHFKQRORJLL

3UDFD V\VWHPX HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHJR

3UDFD V\QFKURQLF]QD L ELODQV Z F]DVLH U]HF]\ZLVW\P 0DJD]\QRZDQLH HQHUJLL L LPSOLNDFMH GOD ELODQVRZDQLD 'RVWDZD HQHUJLL SU]H] VLHü HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Qą 6HJPHQW NRQNXUHQF\MQ\ L UHJXORZDQ\ :\VWDUF]DOQRĞü JHQHUDFML D PHFKDQL]P\ U\QNRZH %H]SLHF]HĔVWZR HQHUJHW\F]QH '\VSR]\F\MQRĞü L VWHURZDOQRĞü &LąJáRĞü ]DVLODQLD L DGHNZDWQRĞü %LODQVH PRF\ L HQHUJLL

8

SPIS TREŚCI

B.

ASPEKTY TECHNICZNE

55

3.

:\WZDU]DQLH HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM

4.

5.

6.

:SURZDG]HQLH GR Z\WZDU]DQLD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM 3RG]LDá ĨUyGHá Z\WZyUF]\FK .RQZHQFMRQDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL (OHNWURZQLH ZĊJORZH (OHNWURZQLH JD]RZH (OHNWURZQLH MąGURZH 0DáH UHDNWRU\ MąGURZH ௅ 605 )X]MD MąGURZD

2GQDZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL

%LRPDVD L ELRJD] %LRPDVD L ELRJD] MDNR SDOLZR :\NRU]\VWDQLH ELRPDV\ L ELRJD]X Z 3ROVFH (OHNWURZQLH ZRGQH (OHNWURZQLH VáRQHF]QH (OHNWURZQLH IRWRWHUPLF]QH (OHNWURZQLH IRWRZROWDLF]QH (OHNWURZQLH ZLDWURZH 3URGXNFMD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM ] ZRGRUX :RGyU MDNR SDOLZR 7UXGQRĞFL ]DVWRVRZDQLD ZRGRUX :VSDUFLH GOD WHFKQRORJLL ZRGRURZ\FK

0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL

)RUP\ PDJD]\QRZDQLD .DWHJRULH PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL :\NRU]\VWDQLH PDJD]\QyZ Z V\VWHPLH HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P (OHNWURZQLH V]F]\WRZR SRPSRZH 0DJD]\Q\ HOHNWURFKHPLF]QH 0DJD]\Q\ W\SX %(66 0DJD]\Q\ FLHSáD

3U]HV\áDQLH HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM

:SURZDG]HQLH GR SU]HV\áDQLD HQHUJLL 6\VWHP\ SU]HV\áRZH L G\VWU\EXF\MQH 6WHURZDQLD SU]HSá\ZDPL HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM /LQLH SUąGX VWDáHJR /LQLH EH]SRĞUHGQLH

SPIS TREŚCI

7.

9

.ODVWU\ HQHUJLL 3RáąF]HQLH ] VąVLHGQLPL V\VWHPDPL 3U]\áąF]DQLH QRZ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL =DVDG\ SU]\áąF]DQLD ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM 0RFH SU]\áąF]HQLRZH 2GPRZ\ SU]\áąF]HĔ 3U]\áąF]DQLH SURVXPHQWyZ 2GG]LDá\ZDQLH 2=( QD UR]Sá\Z\ HQHUJLL :RMQ\ IDORZQLNyZ R GRVWĊS GR VLHFL 0RĪOLZRĞFL G]LDáDQLD RSHUDWRUyZ VLHFL

2GELRUF\ L RGELRU\ HQHUJLL

*UXS\ RGELRUFyZ .DWHJRULH RGELRUQLNyZ 1RZH RGELRU\ HQHUJLL 3RPS\ FLHSáD 6DPRFKRG\ HOHNWU\F]QH &HQWUD GDQ\FK

C.

ASPEKTY EKONOMICZNE

137

8.

.RV]W\ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM

:SURZDG]HQLH GR Z\]QDF]DQLD NRV]WyZ HQHUJLL (NRQRPLF]QD HIHNW\ZQRĞü LQZHVW\FML 3URVW\ RNUHV ]ZURWX 1HW 3UHVHQW 9DOXH 139 2EOLF]DQLH F]DVX ]ZURWX ] LQZHVW\FML =G\VNRQWRZDQH NRV]W\ ĨUyGHá RGQDZLDOQ\FK +LVWRULD PHWRG ]G\VNRQWRZDQ\FK =DáRĪHQLD WUDG\F\MQ\FK /&2( 3RWU]HED QRZ\FK GH¿QLFML .RV]W\ LQVWDODFML L NRV]W\ V\VWHPRZH 0HWRGD /)6&2( ± SRGHMĞFLH WRS GRZQ .RV]W\ V\VWHPRZH ± SRGHMĞFLH ERWWRP XS .RV]W\ QLHGRVWDUF]RQHM HQHUJLL 6XEV\GLRZDQLH RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL &HUW\¿NDW\ MDNR VXEV\GLD GOD 2=( $XNFMH 2=( ± WDU\I\ JZDUDQWRZDQH 6XEV\GLRZDQLD 2=( SRSU]H] (76 .RV]W\ V\VWHPRZH :DNDFMH NUHG\WRZH 6DOGD 'RGDWQLHJR &DáNRZLWH NRV]W\ HQHUJLL ] 2=(

10

SPIS TREŚCI

1DGPLDU HQHUJLL ] 2=( 3U]\PXVRZH Z\áąF]HQLD :\áąF]DQH PRFH L WHFKQRORJLH .RPSHQVDW\ ]D SU]\PXVRZH Z\áąF]HQLD

:DUWRĞü U\QNRZD HQHUJLL 8PRZ\ 33$ MDNR ZVSDUFLH HQHUJHW\NL RGQDZLDOQHM .RQVWUXNFMD XPyZ 33$ L UROH VWURQ XPRZ\ (OHPHQW\ NRQWUDNWX 33$ 3RGVWDZRZH PRGHOH 33$ 5R]ZyM 33$ Z 3ROVFH 3U]\F]\Q\ ]DLQWHUHVRZDQLD 33$ 33$ (6* L JZDUDQFMH SRFKRG]HQLD

9.

5\QNL HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM

:SURZDG]HQLH GR U\QNyZ HQHUJLL

6WUXNWXU\ U\QNyZ

3R]LRP\ U\QNX HQHUJLL 5\QHN KXUWRZ\ 5\QHN GHWDOLF]Q\

*áyZQH VWUXNWXU\ U\QNyZ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM 5\QHN HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM W\SX ÄSRRO´ 5\QHN ELODWHUDOQ\

5\QNL W\ONR HQHUJLL

&HQD NUDĔFRZD L FHQD RIHUWRZD

=DVDG\ KDQGOX HQHUJLĊ HOHNWU\F]Qą 0LHG]LDQD Sá\WD &HFK\ HQHUJLL MDNR WRZDUX

*LHáG\ HQHUJLL 5\QNL GQLD QDVWĊSQHJR L ELHĪąFHJR 5\QNL NRQWUDNWRZH

2EOLJR JLHáGRZH 5\QNL ELODQVXMąFH 6WUXNWXUD L UHODFMH U\QNX ELODQVXMąFHJR %LODQVRZDQLH HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM 5HJXODF\MQH XVáXJL V\VWHPRZH 586 8VáXJL QDSLĊFLRZH 8VáXJL GRW\F]ąFH F]ĊVWRWOLZRĞFL 5HDOL]DFMD ĞZLDGF]HQLD 586 8VáXJL LQWHUZHQF\MQH L SROHFHQLD UXFKRZH

SPIS TREŚCI

D.

10.

11

OPTYMALIZACJA ENERGY MIX SYSTEMÓW ELEKTROENERGETYCZNYCH Z MAGAZYNAMI ENERGII

207

2SW\PDOL]DFMD (QHUJ\ 0L[

&HOH L KRU\]RQW\ F]DVRZH 3ODQRZDQLH UR]ZRMX V\VWHPX 2SW\PDOL]DFMD Z V\VWHPLH 'D\ $KHDG 0XVW UXQ V\VWHPRZ\ NRJHQHUDF\MQ\ L VLHFLRZ\ %XGRZD PRGHOL (QHUJ\ 0L[ +RU\]RQW\ F]DVRZH /DWD NOLPDW\F]QH

11.

6\PXODFMH PHWRGą (QHUJ\ 0L[

0HWRG\ RSW\PDOL]DFML )XQNFMD FHOX L RJUDQLF]HQLD 2SW\PDOL]DFMD ELQDUQR OLQLRZD 3URJQR]RZDQLH D RSW\PDOL]DFMD ZDULDQWRZD :DULDQW MąGURZ\ L JD]RZ\ 'DQH ZHMĞFLRZH GOD (QHUJ\ 0L[ :DULDQW\ SDVPD ED]RZHJR %LODQVH PRF\ (QHUJ\ 0L[ :\NRU]\VWDQLH PDJD]\QyZ %LODQVH URF]QH HQHUJLL =DNáDGDQH L RVLąJQLĊWH XG]LDá\ 2=( 6WDáD L ]PLHQQD ZLHONRĞü JHQHUDFML ED]RZHM :\NRU]\VWDQLH HQHUJLL ĨUyGHá RGQDZLDOQ\FK 8G]LDá NRQZHQFMRQDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL

12.

0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL Z WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM

:SURZDG]HQLH 7UDG\F\MQH PDJD]\Q\ (63 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL GOD 2=( 2EV]DU\ G]LDáDQLD PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL QD 5\QNX 0RF\ ĝZLDGF]HQLH UHJXODF\MQ\FK XVáXJ V\VWHPRZ\FK 586 SU]H] PDJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL $UELWUDĪ FHQRZ\ PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL $OJRU\WP RSW\PDOQHJR VWHURZDQLD PDJD]\QDPL HQHUJLL 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL Z (QHUJ\ 0L[ àDGRZDQLH L UR]áDGRZDQLH PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL /LF]ED SHáQ\FK F\NOL PDJD]\QyZ

12

SPIS TREŚCI

2SW\PDOL]DFMD 2=( L DUELWUDĪ FHQRZ\ :\NRU]\VWDQLH ]GROQRĞFL PDJD]\QRZDQLD HQHUJLL =GROQRĞFL PDJD]\QRZDQLD :LHONRĞü PDJD]\QX D ]GROQRĞFL PDJD]\QRZDQLD 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL X SURVXPHQWyZ 3URVXPHQW Z V\VWHPLH QHW PHWHULQJ 3URVXPHQW Z V\VWHPLH QHW ELOOLQJ 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL Z V\VWHPLH &DEOH 3RROLQJ =DáRĪHQLD GR DQDOL] 6\PXODFMH &DEOH 3RROLQJ 3U]HELHJL F]DVRZH :UDĪOLZRĞü QD ]PLDQĊ SDUDPHWUyZ 3RGVXPRZDQLH 3HUVSHNW\Z\ PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL

E.

$63(.7< 632à(&=1(

13.

$VSHNW\ VSRáHF]QH WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM

.RV]W\ WUDQVIRUPDFML 8EyVWZR HQHUJHW\F]QH :Sá\Z SROLW\NL NOLPDW\F]QHM QD XEyVWZR HQHUJHW\F]QH 0HFKDQL]P\ RVáRQRZH 6SUDZLHGOLZD WUDQVIRUPDFMD 7UDQVIRUPDFMD UHJLRQyZ ZĊJORZ\FK Z 3ROVFH 6\WXDFMD HNRQRPLF]QD JyUQLFWZD ZĊJOD NDPLHQQHJR Z 3ROVFH ,PSOLNDFMH GOD NRQVXPHQWyZ L RGELRUFyZ HQHUJLL $NW\ZL]DFMD RGELRUF\ HQHUJLL 5R]NáDG NRU]\ĞFL Z DNW\ZL]DFML RGELRUF\ 3U]HGVLĊELRUVWZD L SU]HP\Vá MDNR XF]HVWQLF\ U\QNX HQHUJLL -HGQRVWNL VDPRU]ąGX WHU\WRULDOQHJR MDNR RGELRUF\ HQHUJLL

=DNRĔF]HQLH

%LEOLRJUD¿D

6SLV U\VXQNyZ

6SLV WDEHO

OD AUTORÓW

1DV]ą NVLąĪNĊ ]DW\WXáRZDQą Wyzwania transformacji energetycznej NLHUXMHP\ GR HQHUJHW\NyZ SROLW\NyZ G]LHQQLNDU]\ G]LDáDF]\ NOLPDW\F]Q\FK VWXGHQWyZ L W\VLĊF\ OXG]L ]DMPXMąF\FK VLĊ HQHUJHW\Ną OXE FKFąF\FK SRV]HU]\ü VZRMą ZLHG]Ċ D NWyU]\ QLH NRQLHF]QLH PDMą IRUPDOQH Z\NV]WDáFHQLH Z WHM G]LHG]LQLH 3XEOLNDFMD VNLHURZDQD MHVW GR ZV]\VWNLFK RGELRUFyZ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM D SRGDQH Z QLHM LQIRUPDFMH SRPRJą LP SR]QDü G]LDáDQLH V\VWHPyZ HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\FK L OHSLHM ]UR]XPLHü ]PLDQ\ NWyUH UyZQLHĪ LFK GRW\F]ą 7R RGELRUF\ Vą JáyZQ\P HOHPHQWHP V\VWHPX HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHJR L ]DVSRNR MHQLX LFK SRWU]HE SRZLQQD E\ü SRGSRU]ąGNRZDQD JHQHUDFMD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM L MHM SU]HV\áDQLH DE\ V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ ]DZV]H G]LDáDá Z ]JRG]LH ] PLĊG]\QD URGRZ\P NRGHNVHP HQHUJHW\NyZ Lights always must be ON ]DSHZQLDMąF NDĪGHPX RGELRUF\ FLąJáH L QLH]DZRGQH GRVWDZ\ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM ER MHVW RQD QLH]EĊGQ\P HOHPHQWHP GOD LVWQLHQLD VSRáHF]HĔVWZ L G]LDáDQLD JRVSRGDUNL *áyZQH F]ĊĞFL RSUDFRZDQLD RUD] SRV]F]HJyOQH UR]G]LDá\ FHFKXMH GXĪD DXWR QRPLF]QRĞü SR]ZDODMąFD ]DSR]QDü VLĊ ] Z\EUDQ\P ]DJDGQLHQLHP EH] NRQLHF]QRĞFL ĞOHG]HQLD QDUUDFML FDáHM NVLąĪNL ZHGáXJ NROHMQRĞFL SUH]HQWRZDQ\FK ]DJDGQLHĔ $E\ XáDWZLü F]\WHOQLNRP GDOV]H ]JáĊELDQLH ZLHG]\ ] WHJR ]DNUHVX RSLV\ QD]Z L ]MDZLVN X]XSHáQLDOLĞP\ DQJLHOVNLPL SRMĊFLDPL 6WDUDOLĞP\ VLĊ DE\ QDV]D SUDFD SUH]HQWRZDáD RELHNW\ZQLH WUDQVIRUPDFMĊ HQHU JHW\F]Qą L ZV]\VWNLH ]ZLą]DQH ] QLą DVSHNW\ :VND]XMHP\ Z QLHM EDULHU\ UR]ZRMX WHFKQRORJLL HQHUJHW\F]Q\FK NWyU\FK DQL V]F]HUH FKĊFL DQL GHF\]MH SROLW\F]QH DQL SDNLHW\ VXEV\GLyZ QLH Vą Z VWDQLH FDáNRZLFLH SU]H]Z\FLĊĪ\ü :LHU]\P\ MHGQDN ĪH ĞZLDGRPRĞü VSRáHF]QD W\FK ZV]\VWNLFK Z\]ZDĔ MDNLH VWRMą SU]HG WUDQVIRUPDFMą HQHU JHW\F]Qą SR]ZROL QD SU]HSURZDG]HQLH HZROXF\MQ\FK ]PLDQ SROHSV]DMąF\FK MDNRĞü Ī\FLD VSRáHF]HĔVWZD L ĞURGRZLVND Z NWyU\P Ī\MHP\

WPROWADZENIE. DOKĄD ZMIERZA ELEKTROENERGETYKA?

: QDV]HM NVLąĪFH NRQFHQWUXMHP\ VLĊ SU]HGH ZV]\VWNLP QD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM L V\VWH PDFK HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\FK (QHUJLD HOHNWU\F]QD MHVW QDMEDUG]LHM XQLZHUVDOQ\P QR ĞQLNLHP HQHUJLL ZH ZVSyáF]HVQHM JRVSRGDUFH L ZVSyáF]HVQ\P VSRáHF]HĔVWZLH 6\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ FKDUDNWHU\]XMH VLĊ XQLNDOQ\PL FHFKDPL ¿]\F]Q\ PL NWyUH NUHXMą V]HURNLH PRĪOLZRĞFL DOH UyZQLHĪ QDNáDGDMą RNUHĞORQH RJUDQLF]HQLD QD SURGXNFMĊ SU]HV\á L XĪ\WNRZDQLH HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM (QHUJLD Z\WZDU]DQD L SRELHUD QD PXVL E\ü ]ELODQVRZDQD Z V\VWHPLH HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P Z NDĪGHM FKZLOL 1DZHW NUyWNRWUZDá\ EUDN UyZQRZDJL SRPLĊG]\ SURGXNFMą D ]XĪ\FLHP OXE QLHZLHONLH SU]HFLą ĪHQLD VLHFL PRJą SURZDG]Lü GR ]DEXU]HĔ SUDF\ V\VWHPX D Z VNUDMQ\P SU]\SDGNX GR UR]OHJá\FK DZDULL 7R ZV]\VWNR SRZRGXMH ĪH WUDQVIRUPDFMD Z HOHNWURHQHUJHW\FH PXVL E\ü SURZDG]RQD EDUG]R UR]ZDĪQLH MDNR FLąJá\ SURFHV PRGHUQL]DFML GRNRQ\ZDQ\ QD SUDFXMąF\P Ī\Z\P V\VWHPLH SU]\ QLHSU]HUZDQ\P ]DVSRNDMDQLX ]DSRWU]HERZDQLD VSRáHF]HĔVWZD QD HQHUJLĊ HOHNWU\F]Qą : SUH]HQWRZDQHM SXEOLNDFML ]DJDGQLHQLD ]ZLą]DQH ] WUDQVIRUPDFMą HQHUJHW\F] Qą SRG]LHOLOLĞP\ QD SLĊü JáyZQ\FK F]ĊĞFL : SLHUZV]HM ] QLFK UR]G]LDá\ L RG QRVLP\ VLĊ GR XZDUXQNRZDĔ WUDQVIRUPDFML ZVND]XMąF QD VSHF\¿F]QH FHFK\ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM RUD] XZDUXQNRZDQLD Z MDNLFK G]LDáD V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ L MHJR JáyZQ\ HOHPHQW MDNLP Vą RGELRUF\ HQHUJLL GOD NWyU\FK V\VWHP WHQ ]RVWDá ]EXGRZDQ\ L IXQNFMRQXMH : F]ĊĞFL GUXJLHM L WU]HFLHM NVLąĪNL ]DMPXMHP\ VLĊ G]LDáDQLHP WULDG\ HOHNWURHQHU JHW\F]QHM D Z\WZDU]DQLHP E SU]HV\áDQLHP L F XĪ\WNRZDQLHP HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F] QHM UR]G]LDá\ ௅ -HGQ\P ] FHOyZ WUDQVIRUPDFML Z HOHNWURHQHUJHW\FH MHVW UHGXNFMD HPLVML JD]yZ Z W\P Z V]F]HJyOQRĞü GZXWOHQNX ZĊJOD 3RZRGXMH WR RJUDQLF]DQLH NRU]\VWDQLD ] ZĊJOD MDNR SDOLZD GOD HQHUJHW\NL L SRV]XNLZDQLD LQQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL NWyUH E\á\E\ Z VWDQLH ]DVWąSLü WR WUDG\F\MQH SDOLZR *áyZQą QDG]LHMą WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM Vą RGQDZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL V]F]HJyOQLH WH PRJąFH SURGXNRZDü HQHU JLĊ HOHNWU\F]Qą Z GXĪ\FK LORĞFLDFK WDNLH MDN LQVWDODFMH ZLDWURZH F]\ IRWRZROWDLF]QH

WPROWADZENIE. DOKĄD ZMIERZA ELEKTROENERGETYKA?

15

-HGQDN ]PLHQQRĞü SUDF\ W\FK ĨUyGHá SRZRGXMH NRQLHF]QRĞü PDJD]\QRZDQLD HQHU JLL HOHNWU\F]QHM Z GXĪHM VNDOL FR LVWQLHMąFH WHFKQRORJLH ]DSHZQLDMą Z RJUDQLF]RQ\P VWRSQLX ']LDáDQLD ZSURZDG]DMąFH WUDQVIRUPDFMĊ HQHUJHW\F]Qą Z 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM Vą QLH W\ONR QLHVSyMQH DOH Z]DMHPQLH VSU]HF]QH = MHGQHM VWURQ\ ]ZLĊNV]DP\ ]DSRWU]H ERZDQLH QD HQHUJLĊ HOHNWU\F]Qą VW\PXOXMąF UR]ZyM QRZ\FK WHFKQRORJLL WDNLFK MDN VDPRFKRG\ HOHNWU\F]QH SRPS\ FLHSáD F]\ FHQWUD SU]HWZDU]DQLD GDQ\FK D ] GUXJLHM VWURQ\ OLNZLGXMHP\ ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL PRJąFH Z VSRVyE FLąJá\ L QLH]DZRGQ\ GRVWDUF]Dü QLH]EĊGQHM HQHUJLL WDNLH MDN HQHUJHW\ND ZĊJORZD F]\ JD]RZD D Z ]DPLDQ SURSRQX MHP\ NDSU\ĞQH L EDUG]R NRV]WRZQH RGQDZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL ]DU]ąG]DQLH NWyU\PL F]ĊVWR VSURZDG]D VLĊ GR LFK SU]\PXVRZ\FK Z\áąF]HĔ àXG]LP\ VLĊ ĪH UR]EXGRZD VLHFL HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\FK ]QDF]QLH ]ZLĊNV]\ PRĪOLZRĞü SU]\áąF]DQLD RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá L LFK SURGXNFMĊ SRGF]DV JG\ U]HF]\ZL VWą SU]\F]\Qą UHGXNRZDQLD HQHUJLL RGQDZLDOQHM SRSU]H] SU]\PXVRZH Z\áąF]HQLD MHVW MHM QDGPLDU NWyUHJR RGELRUF\ QLH Vą Z VWDQLH ]XĪ\ü D PDJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL SU]HFKRZDü 3UREOHPHP Z SU]\áąF]DQLX QRZ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL QLH MHVW VLHü HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QD W\ONR QDGPLDU HQHUJLL 2=( NWyU\ Z\VWĊSXMH V]F]HJyOQLH Z SyáQRFQHM F]ĊĞFL NUDMX ]H Z]JOĊGX QD ORNDOL]DFMĊ IDUP ZLDWURZ\FK OąGRZ\FK L PRUVNLFK RUD] QLHUDFMRQDOQą ORNDOL]DFMĊ SODQRZDQHM HOHNWURZQL MąGURZHM 3U]HV\áDQLX HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM L MHM XĪ\WNRZDQLX SRĞZLĊFRQH Vą UR]G]LDá\ L Z NWyU\FK SRND]DOLĞP\ G]LDáDQLH VLHFL HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHM MDN UyZQLHĪ RGG]LDá\ZD QLH SU]\áąF]RQ\FK GR QLHM XU]ąG]HĔ WDNLFK MDN SURVXPHQFNLH IDORZQLNL 2PyZLOLĞP\ UyZQLHĪ QLHNWyUH LQLFMDW\Z\ WZRU]HQLD NODVWUyZ F]\ VSyáG]LHOQL HQHUJHW\F]Q\FK NWyUH PLDá\ E\ü ]DOąĪNDPL HQHUJHW\NL VSRáHF]QHM ] RJUDQLF]RQ\PL MDN GR WHM SRU\ UH]XOWDWDPL 1DUDVWDMąFH NRV]W\ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM WH MDZQH L WH Z UyĪQ\ VSRVyE XNU\ WH VWDMą VLĊ FRUD] ZLĊNV]\P SUREOHPHP GOD RGELRUFyZ HQHUJLL .RV]WRP HQHUJLL SR ĞZLĊFRQH Vą UR]G]LDá\ L Z V]F]HJyOQRĞFL SRND]XMąFH VXEV\GLD GOD RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá NWyUH VWZDU]DMą SR]RU\ WDQLRĞFL HQHUJLL ] 2=( 8Z]JOĊGQLHQLH NRV]WyZ V\VWH PRZ\FK ĨUyGHá RGQDZLDOQ\FK SRZRGXMH ĪH NRV]W\ HQHUJLL ] 2=( PRJą E\ü ௅ UD]\ ZLĊNV]H RG NRV]WyZ HQHUJLL ] HOHNWURZQL NRQZHQFMRQDOQ\FK FR RSLVDOLĞP\ Z SRG UR]G]LDOH = NROHL SRGUR]G]LDá ]RVWDá SRĞZLĊFRQ\ XPRZRP 33$ MDNR G\QD PLF]QLH UR]ZLMDMąFHPX VLĊ HOHPHQWRZL U\QNX HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM 5R]G]LDá\ ௅ F]ĊĞü F]ZDUWD GRW\F]ą V\PXODFML SUDF\ V\VWHPX HOHNWURHQHU JHW\F]QHJR ] PDJD]\QDPL HQHUJLL ]D SRPRFą PRGHOL (QHUJ\ 0L[ SU]\ ]DVWRVRZDQLX PHWRG RSW\PDOL]DFML W\SX 0,/3 %DGDQLD V\PXODF\MQH Z W\P EDGDQLD ZUDĪOLZRĞFL QD ]PLDQ\ ZDUWRĞFL SDUDPHWUyZ SRND]DQH Z W\FK UR]G]LDáDFK SRWZLHUG]DMą ZQLRVNL ] DQDOL] ]DZDUW\FK Z SLHUZV]HM F]ĊĞFL L ZVND]XMą ĪH RVLąJQLĊFLH ]DPLHU]RQ\FK FHOyZ UHGXNFML HPLVML GZXWOHQNX ZĊJOD MHVW PDáR UHDOQH D PDJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL QLH SU]\F]\QLą VLĊ LVWRWQLH GR ]ZLĊNV]HQLD XG]LDáX 2=( Z SURGXNRZDQHM HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM V]F]H JyOQLH NLHG\ LFK JáyZQ\P FHOHP MHVW G]LDáDQLH ĞFLĞOH NRPHUF\MQH SRSU]H] DUELWUDĪ FHQRZ\ F]\ ĞZLDGF]HQLH UHJXODF\MQ\FK XVáXJ V\VWHPRZ\FK 7UDQVIRUPDFMD HQHUJHW\F]QD PD WHĪ QHJDW\ZQH DVSHNW\ VSRáHF]QLH F]ĊĞü SLą WD MDNLPL Vą Z]URVW EH]URERFLD Z WUDG\F\MQ\FK G]LDáDFK HQHUJHW\NL L QLV]F]HQLH

16

WPROWADZENIE. DOKĄD ZMIERZA ELEKTROENERGETYKA?

WUDG\F\MQHM VSHF\¿F]QHM NXOWXU\ SUDF\ RUD] GHJUDGDFMD RNUĊJyZ JyUQLF]\FK 'RĞZLDG F]HQLD ] LQQ\FK NUDMyZ ZVND]XMą QD QLHRGZUDFDOQH VNXWNL WDNLFK G]LDáDĔ WUDQVIRUPDFML 7UDQVIRUPDFMD HQHUJHW\F]QD SRZLQQD E\ü SURZDG]RQD WDN MDN PD WR PLHMVFH RG SRF]ąWNyZ SRZVWDQLD HOHNWURHQHUJHW\NL 3RZLQQR E\ü WR G]LDáDQLH UR]ZDĪQH UR]áRĪRQH Z F]DVLH L QLHSRZRGXMąFH QDGPLHUQ\FK REFLąĪHĔ HNRQRPLF]Q\FK RUD] QHJDW\ZQ\FK VNXWNyZ VSRáHF]Q\FK 3RGHMPRZDQH G]LDáDQLD PXV]ą E\ü RGSRZLHG]LDOQH L Z\QLNDü ] ZLHG]\ HNVSHUFNLHM GRJáĊEQ\FK V\PXODFML L DQDOL] RUD] V]HURNLHM G\VNXVML VSRáHF]QHM 7ZRU]HQLH PLUDĪ\ V]\ENLHM L áDWZHM WUDQVIRUPDFML SR NWyUHM V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHU JHW\F]Q\ EĊG]LH G]LDáDá JáyZQLH Z RSDUFLX R ]PLHQQH L PDáR SU]HZLG\ZDOQH RGQD ZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL ZVSRPDJDQ\ W\ONR SU]H] QLHOLF]QH ĨUyGáD JD]RZH MHVW GURJą GR NDWDVWURI\ QLH W\ONR V\VWHPX HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHJR DOH L FDáHM JRVSRGDUNL 'ODWHJR PDP\ QDG]LHMĊ ĪH LQIRUPDFMH ]DZDUWH Z WHM NVLąĪFH SU]\F]\QLą VLĊ FKRüE\ Z QLHZLHONLP VWRSQLX GR RGSRZLHG]LDOQHJR SURZDG]HQLD WUDQVIRUPDFML WDN DE\ JRVSRGDUND PLDáD ]DSHZQLRQH FLąJáH GRVWDZ\ HQHUJLL SR FHQDFK QLHSRZRGXMąF\FK XWUDW\ NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFL D NRV]W\ HQHUJLL QLH EĊGą ]PXV]Dü OXG]L DE\ Z\U]HNDOL VLĊ ]DVSRNRMHQLD VZRLFK SRGVWDZRZ\FK SRWU]HE

INTRODUCTION. WHERE IS THE POWER INDUSTRY HEADING?

,Q RXU ERRN ZH IRFXV SULPDULO\ RQ HOHFWULFLW\ DQG SRZHU V\VWHPV (OHFWULFLW\ LV WKH PRVW XQLYHUVDO HQHUJ\ FDUULHU LQ PRGHUQ VRFLHW\ DQG WKH HFRQRP\ 7KH SRZHU V\VWHP LV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ XQLTXH SK\VLFDO IHDWXUHV WKDW FUHDWH D ZLGH UDQJH RI SRVVLELOLWLHV EXW DOVR LPSRVH VSHFL¿F UHVWULFWLRQV RQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ WUDQV PLVVLRQ DQG XVH RI HOHFWULFLW\ 7KH HQHUJ\ JHQHUDWHG DQG FRQVXPHG PXVW DOZD\V EH EDODQFHG LQ WKH SRZHU V\VWHP (YHQ D VKRUW WHUP LPEDODQFH EHWZHHQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ RU PLQRU QHWZRUN FRQJHVWLRQ FDQ OHDG WR V\VWHP GLVUXSWLRQV DQG LQ H[ WUHPH FDVHV ZLGHVSUHDG IDLOXUHV $OO WKLV PHDQV WKDW WKH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH SRZHU LQGXVWU\ PXVW EH FDUULHG RXW YHU\ FDUHIXOO\ DV D FRQWLQXRXV SURFHVV RI PRGHUQLVDWLRQ RQ D ZRUNLQJ ÄOLYH´ V\VWHP ZKLOH FRQWLQXRXVO\ PHHWLQJ VRFLHW\¶V HOHFWULFLW\ QHHGV ,Q WKLV SXEOLFDWLRQ ZH KDYH GLYLGHG WKH LVVXHV UHODWHG WR WKH HQHUJ\ WUDQVLWLRQ LQWR ¿YH PDLQ SDUWV ,Q WKH ¿UVW RI WKHP &KDSWHUV DQG ZH UHIHU WR WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQGLFDWLQJ WKH VSHFL¿F FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI HOHFWULFLW\ DQG WKH FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK WKH SRZHU V\VWHP DQG LWV PDLQ HOHPHQW WKH HQHUJ\ FRQVXPHUV IRU ZKRP WKLV V\VWHP ZDV EXLOW DQG RSHUDWHV RSHUDWH 7KH VHFRQG DQG WKLUG SDUW RI WKH ERRN GHDOV ZLWK WKH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH HOHFWULFLW\ WULDG D JHQHUDWLRQ E WUDQVPLVVLRQ DQG F XVH RI HOHFWULFLW\ &KDSWHUV ௅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

18

INTRODUCTION. WHERE IS THE POWER INDUSTRY HEADING?

KHDW SXPSV DQG GDWD SURFHVVLQJ FHQWUHV 6WLOO RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG ZH DUH HOLPLQDWLQJ HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV WKDW FDQ FRQWLQXRXVO\ DQG UHOLDEO\ VXSSO\ WKH QHFHVVDU\ HQHUJ\ VXFK DV FRDO RU JDV ,QVWHDG ZH DUH SURSRVLQJ FDSULFLRXV DQG YHU\ H[SHQVLYH UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI ZKLFK RIWHQ ERLOV GRZQ WR WKHLU IRUFHG VKXWGRZQV :H GHOXGH RXUVHOYHV WKDW WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI SRZHU JULGV ZLOO VLJQL¿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௅ WLPHV WKDW RI FRQYHQWLRQDO SRZHU SODQWV DV GHVFULEHG LQ 6XE VHFWLRQ ,Q WXUQ VXEVHFWLRQ LV GHYRWHG WR 33$V DV D G\QDPLFDOO\ GHYHORSLQJ HOHPHQW RI WKH HOHFWULFLW\ PDUNHW &KDSWHUV ௅ IRXUWK SDUW SUHVHQW VLPXODWLRQV RI WKH SRZHU V\VWHP¶V RSHU DWLRQ ZLWK HQHUJ\ VWRUDJH XVLQJ (QHUJ\ 0L[ PRGHOV DQG 0,/3 RSWLPLVDWLRQ PHWK RGV 6LPXODWLRQ VWXGLHV LQFOXGLQJ WHVWV RI VHQVLWLYLW\ WR FKDQJHV LQ SDUDPHWHU YDOXHV VKRZQ LQ WKHVH FKDSWHUV FRQ¿UP WKH FRQFOXVLRQV IURP WKH DQDO\VHV LQ WKH ¿UVW SDUW DQG LQGLFDWH WKDW DFKLHYLQJ WKH LQWHQGHG JRDOV RI UHGXFLQJ FDUERQ GLR[LGH HPLVVLRQV LV XQUHDOLVWLF (QHUJ\ VWRUDJH IDFLOLWLHV ZLOO QRW VLJQL¿FDQWO\ LQFUHDVH WKH VKDUH RI 5(6 LQ WKH HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFHG HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ WKHLU PDLQ JRDO LV VWULFWO\ FRPPHUFLDO RS HUDWLRQ WKURXJK SULFH DUELWUDJH RU WKH SURYLVLRQ RI UHJXODWRU\ VHUYLFHV XQGHU V\VWHPLF UHTXLUHPHQWV 7KH HQHUJ\ WUDQVLWLRQ DOVR KDV QHJDWLYH VRFLDO DVSHFWV ¿IWK SDUW VXFK DV LQ FUHDVHV LQ XQHPSOR\PHQW LQ WUDGLWLRQDO HQHUJ\ VHFWRUV WKH GHVWUXFWLRQ RI D WUDGLWLRQDO VSHFL¿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

INTRODUCTION. WHERE IS THE POWER INDUSTRY HEADING?

19

VXSSRUWHG RQO\ E\ D IHZ JDV VRXUFHV LV D SDWK WR GLVDVWHU QRW RQO\ IRU WKH SRZHU V\VWHP EXW DOVR IRU WKH HQWLUH HFRQRP\ :H WKHUHIRUH KRSH WKDW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWDLQHG LQ WKLV ERRN ZLOO DW OHDVW WR D VPDOO H[WHQW FRQWULEXWH WR WKH UHVSRQVLEOH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH WUDQVLWLRQ HQVXU LQJ WKDW WKH HFRQRP\ LV JXDUDQWHHG D FRQWLQXRXV VXSSO\ RI HQHUJ\ DW SULFHV WKDW GR QRW FDXVH D ORVV RI FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV (QHUJ\ FRVWV GR QRW IRUFH SHRSOH WR JLYH XS WKHLU EDVLF QHHGV

A. UWARUNKOWANIE TRANSFORMACJI

1.

PROCESY TRANSFORMACJI

7UDQVIRUPDFMD Z ]QDF]HQLX EDUG]LHM RJyOQ\P L KLVWRU\F]Q\P WR GREU]H ]QDQH ]MDZL VNR GRVWRVRZDQLD U]HF]\ZLVWRĞFL GR QRZ\FK ZDUXQNyZ 2EHMPXMH RQD WDNĪH JRVSR GDUNĊ LQVW\WXFMH SURFHV\ Z W\P SURFHV\ VSRáHF]QH NWyUH UHDJXMą QD SRVWĊS WHFKQR ORJLF]Q\ L VLĊ GR QLHJR GRVWRVRZXMą =PLDQ\ U]DGNR PDMą Z\UDĨQ\ SRF]ąWHN L NRQLHF ER NROHMQH HWDS\ LQQRZDFML QDNáDGDMą VLĊ QD VLHELH D ZF]HĞQLHMV]H UR]ZLą]DQLD SU]H] GáXJL F]DV ZVSyáLVWQLHMą ] QRZ\PL = SHUVSHNW\Z\ XF]HVWQLNyZ SURFHVX ZLHOH HOH PHQWyZ VSUDZLD ZUDĪHQLH FLąJáRĞFL SU]HPLDQ OHF] GRSLHUR SR ODWDFK ZLGDü ĪH E\á WR NROHMQ\ HWDS SU]HEXGRZ\ VSRVREX Z\WZDU]DQLD RUJDQL]DFML SUDF\ F]\ NRQVXPSFML 3U]HáRP WHFKQRORJLF]Q\ MHVW ]D]Z\F]DM NRMDU]RQ\ ] NRQNUHWQ\P RGNU\FLHP OXE XGRVNRQDOHQLHP NWyU\ XUXFKDPLD áDĔFXFK ]PLDQ Z SU]HP\ĞOH L LQIUDVWUXNWXU]H 8VSUDZQLHQLH PDV]\Q\ SDURZHM SU]H] -DPHVD :DWWD VWZRU]\áR VWDELOQH ĨUyGáR PRF\ PHFKDQLF]QHM QLH]DOHĪQH RG ORNDOQ\FK ZDUXQNyZ K\GURORJLF]Q\FK L ZLDWURZ\FK FR ]PLHQLáR JHRJUD¿Ċ SURGXNFML L SU]\VSLHV]\áR LQGXVWULDOL]DFMĊ ,QQ\ SU]\NáDG WR XSR ZV]HFKQLHQLH WUDQVSRUWX NROHMRZHJR L ORNRPRW\Z NWyUH VNUDFDá\ F]DV SU]HZR]X VX URZFyZ L SURGXNWyZ RUD] Z]PDFQLDá\ NRQFHQWUDFMĊ SU]HP\VáX Z]GáXĪ QRZ\FK V]OD NyZ ORJLVW\F]Q\FK =MDZLVNR LQGXNFML HOHNWURPDJQHW\F]QHM UR]SR]QDQH HNVSHU\PHQWDOQLH SU]H] )DUDGD\D VWZRU]\áR SRGVWDZ\ Z\WZDU]DQLD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM Z JHQHUDWRUDFK RUD] WUDQVIRUPDFML QDSLĊü Z WUDQVIRUPDWRUDFK FR XPRĪOLZLáR UR]ZyM V\VWHPyZ SU]HV\áX L G\VWU\EXFML RUD] XSRZV]HFKQLHQLH ]DVWRVRZDĔ HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM Z JRVSRGDUFH 5HZROXFMD F\IURZD PD SRGREQą VWUXNWXUĊ 1DMSLHUZ Z\QDOH]LRQR WUDQ]\VWRU SRWHP XNáDG VFDORQ\ SRWHP PLNURSURFHVRU L GRSLHUR QD W\P IXQGDPHQFLH QDVWĊSRZD áD NRPSXWHU\]DFMD DXWRPDW\]DFMD L G]LVLHMV]H ]DVWRVRZDQLD EDUG]R ]áRĪRQ\FK PRGHOL VLHFL QHXURQRZ\FK L XF]HQLD PDV]\QRZHJR RNUHĞODQ\FK VNUyWHP $, DQJ DUWL¿FLDO intelligence

1. PROCESY TRANSFORMACJI

23

3URFHV\ WUDQVIRUPDF\MQH E\ZDMą WHĪ SU]\VSLHV]DQH SU]H] ]GDU]HQLD QDJáH .U\ ]\V QDIWRZ\ ] ODW ± E\á LPSXOVHP GR EXGRZ\ LQVW\WXFML L SROLW\N EH]SLHF]HĔ VWZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR Z NUDMDFK XSU]HP\VáRZLRQ\FK > @ : 3ROVFH SU]HáRP XVWURMRZ\ SR URNX Z\PXVLá XVWDQRZLHQLH QRZ\FK UHJXá JU\ GOD JRVSRGDUNL L FDá\FK VHNWR UyZ 7HQ W\S V]RNX GRWNQąá WDNĪH VWUXNWXU\ SU]HP\VáRZH PLDVW PLDá Z\PLDU UHJLRQDO Q\ àyGĨ ]EXGRZDáD VZRMą SR]\FMĊ QD ZáyNLHQQLFWZLH Z ;,; ZLHNX QDWRPLDVW VLOQH ]DáDPDQLH WHJR VHNWRUD QDVWąSLáR GRSLHUR Z ZDUXQNDFK WUDQVIRUPDFML SR URNX L ]PLDQ\ U\QNyZ ]E\WX RUD] NRQNXUHQFML NRV]WRZHM > @ > @ 1D W\P WOH REHFQD WUDQVIRUPDFMD HQHUJHW\F]QD PD FHFK\ ZVSyOQH ] ZF]HĞQLHM V]\PL RNUHVDPL SU]HPLDQ DOH UyĪQL VLĊ VNDOą PRELOL]DFML L WHPSHP =PLDQ\ QLH Z\QL NDMą Z\áąF]QLH ] SRVWĊSX WHFKQLF]QHJR L UDFKXQNX NRV]WyZ SRMHG\QF]\FK SURMHNWyZ 6ą SU]\VSLHV]DQH SU]H] SROLW\NL SXEOLF]QH UHJXODFMH LQVWUXPHQW\ ¿QDQVRZH L VWUDWH JLH SU]HP\VáRZH 0RW\ZDFMH Vą PLHV]DQH 3RMDZLD VLĊ ZąWHN EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD GRVWDZ SUHVMD ĞURGRZLVNRZD RF]HNLZDQLD GRW\F]ąFH NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFL NRV]WRZHM D WDNĪH ORJLND SU]HZDJ Z áDĔFXFKDFK ZDUWRĞFL QRZ\FK WHFKQRORJLL 2]QDF]D WR ĪH GHF\]MH LQZHVW\F\MQH L UHJXODF\MQH Vą SRGHMPRZDQH UyZQROHJOH Z ZLHOX VHNWRUDFK D VNXWNL SU]HQRV]ą VLĊ PLĊG]\ QLPL ] RSyĨQLHQLHP L F]ĊVWR Z VSRVyE WUXGQ\ GR SU]HZLG]HQLD 7\P VDP\P WUDQVIRUPDFMD HQHUJHW\F]QD REHMPXMH ]QDF]QLH V]HUV]\ ]DNUHV ]DJDGQLHĔ JRVSRGDUF]\FK L VSRáHF]Q\FK Z\NUDF]DMąF SR]D Z\áąF]QH ]DJDGQLHQLH WHFKQRORJLL Z\WZDU]DQLD 6WDMH VLĊ SURFHVHP SU]HEXGRZ\ V\VWHPyZ VSRáHF]QR WHFK QLF]Q\FK Z NWyU\FK LQIUDVWUXNWXUD UHJXODFMH PRGHOH EL]QHVRZH L ]DFKRZDQLD XĪ\W NRZQLNyZ RGG]LDáXMą QD VLHELH L ZVSyáRNUHĞODMą WHPSR RUD] NRV]W\ ]PLDQ > @ > @ : NRQVHNZHQFML SUHVMD GHNDUERQL]DFML L EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR SU]HQRVL VLĊ QD SU]HP\Vá EXG\QNL L WUDQVSRUW D ZUD] ] QLą QD GHF\]MH LQZHVW\F\MQH JRVSRGDUVWZ GRPRZ\FK L ¿UP VWDQGDUG\ WHFKQLF]QH RUJDQL]DFMĊ XVáXJ L DNFHSWDFMĊ VSRáHF]Qą : UDSRUWDFK RFHQLDMąF\FK UHGXNFMĊ HPLVML SRGNUHĞOD VLĊ ĪH G]LDáDQLD SR VWURQLH SRS\ WX L XVáXJ D ZLĊF WDNĪH ]DFKRZDĔ L Z]RUFyZ XĪ\WNRZDQLD HQHUJLL VWDMą VLĊ LVWRWQ\P VNáDGQLNLHP UHGXNFML HPLVML ĞURGRZLVNRZ\FK > @ 7UDQVIRUPDFMD HQHUJHW\F]QD MHVW ]ELRUHP RGPLHQQ\FK ĞFLHĪHN UR]ZRMRZ\FK NWyUH UR]SRF]Ċá\ VLĊ Z UyĪQ\P F]DVLH Z RGPLHQQ\FK ZDUXQNDFK JRVSRGDUF]\FK L LQ VW\WXFMRQDOQ\FK : SRV]F]HJyOQ\FK SDĔVWZDFK L UHJLRQDFK LQQH E\á\ F]\QQLNL LQL FMXMąFH WHQ SURFHV 2G V]RNyZ SRGDĪRZ\FK L GH¿F\WX VXURZFyZ SRSU]H] SRWU]HEĊ ZVSLHUDQLD SU]HP\VáX MDNR HOHPHQW SROLW\NL SU]HP\VáRZHM SR SUHVMĊ ]ZLą]DQą ] GH JUDGDFMą ĞURGRZLVND L ]PLDQą NOLPDWX : HIHNFLH SRZVWDá\ UyĪQH SDUDG\JPDW\ WUDQV IRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM 5D] GRPLQRZDá SDUDG\JPDW EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD L XQLH]DOHĪQLHQLD RG LPSRUWX ,QQ\P UD]HP PRGHUQL]DFML SU]HP\VáRZHM RSDUWHM QD WHFKQRORJLDFK QLVNR HPLV\MQ\FK D MHV]F]H LQQ\P FHOHP E\áD UHGXNFMD HPLVML JD]yZ FLHSODUQLDQ\FK Z P\ĞO SU]HFLZG]LDáDQLD ]PLDQRP NOLPDWX ]JRGQLH ] SURFHVHP 21= :ĞUyG W\FK UyĪQ\FK SDUDG\JPDWyZ REHFQ\ MHVW UyZQLHĪ SDUDG\JPDW UDFMRQDOQHJR SRGHMĞFLD U\QNRZHJR Z NWyU\P GHF\GXMą NRV]W\ WHFKQRORJLL RNUHV\ ]ZURWX L VSHF\¿F]QH GOD NDĪGHJR SUR MHNWX XZDUXQNRZDQLD UHJLRQDOQH : GDOV]HM F]ĊĞFL UR]G]LDáX VNRQFHQWUXMHP\ VLĊ QD WU]HFK JáyZQ\FK PRGHODFK WUDQVIRUPDFML NWyUH PRĪQD GRVWU]HF Z Z\NRQDQLX 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM 8( 86$ L &KLQ

24

A. UWARUNKOWANIE TRANSFORMACJI

Unia Europejska

: SU]\SDGNX 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM SXQNW Z\MĞFLD PLDá FKDUDNWHU ]ZLą]DQ\ ] JRVSRGDUNą RUD] HQHUJHW\Ną -XĪ NU\]\V\ QDIWRZH ODW ;; Z XZLGRF]QLá\ VWUXNWXUDOQą VáDERĞü (XURS\ SROHJDMąFą QD EUDNX ZáDVQ\FK WDQLFK ]DVREyZ URS\ L JD]X RUD] QD Z\VRNLP X]DOHĪQLHQLX RG LPSRUWX ] QLHVWDELOQ\FK JHRSROLW\F]QLH UHJLRQyZ 3UREOHP GH¿F\WX VXURZFyZ L EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD GRVWDZ VWDá VLĊ VWDá\P HOHPHQWHP SROLW\NL HQHUJHW\F]QHM (XURSHMVNLHM :VSyOQRW\ *RVSRGDUF]HM (:* > @ > @ 5yZQROHJOH QDVWĊSRZDá UR]ZyM ZVSyOQHM SROLW\NL ĞURGRZLVNRZHM D RG SRF]ąW NX ODW ;; Z SR Ä6]F]\FLH =LHPL´ Z 5LR GH -DQHLUR L SU]\MĊFLX 5DPRZHM .RQZHQFML 1DURGyZ =MHGQRF]RQ\FK Z VSUDZLH ]PLDQ NOLPDWX DQJ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 81)&&& NZHVWLH NOLPDW\F]QH ]DF]Ċá\ E\ü ZáąF]DQH Z JáyZQ\ QXUW LQWHJUDFML HXURSHMVNLHM > @ 8( ZF]HĞQLH SU]\MĊáD UROĊ NOL PDW\F]QHJR OLGHUD GHNODUXMąF L LPSOHPHQWXMąF EDUG]LHM DPELWQH FHOH UHGXNFML HPLVML QLĪ LQQL DNWRU]\ RUD] DNW\ZQLH NV]WDáWXMąF DUFKLWHNWXUĊ QHJRFMDFML Z UDPDFK 81)&&& L SURWRNRáX ] .LRWR > @ -HGQRF]HĞQLH WHQ Z\PLDU NOLPDW\F]Q\ ]RVWDá GRĞü V]\ENR SRZLą]DQ\ ] FHOHP ZHZQĊWU]Q\P SROHJDMąF\P QD RJUDQLF]HQLX ]DOHĪQRĞFL RG LPSRUWX SDOLZ NRSDOQ\FK RUD] PRGHUQL]DFMą JRVSRGDUNL 5R]ZyM ]LHORQ\FK WHFKQRORJLL F]\ WHĪ V]HU]HM QRUP ĞURGRZLVNRZ\FK PyJá Z]PDFQLDü LQQRZDF\MQRĞü L SU]\F]\QLDü VLĊ GR Z]URVWX JR VSRGDUF]HJR > @ > @ :DUWR WXWDM ZVND]Dü ĪH NXOPLQDFMą SLHUZV]HM ID]\ WHJR SRGHM ĞFLD E\á SDNLHW NOLPDW\F]QR HQHUJHW\F]Q\ [ 2020 climate and energy package SU]\MĊW\ Z ODWDFK ± NWyU\ ]DNáDGDá RVLąJQLĊFLH Z U UHGXNFML HPLVML R FR QDMPQLHM Z]JOĊGHP U XG]LDáX HQHUJLL ] RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL 2=( Z NRĔFRZ\P ]XĪ\FLX HQHUJLL QD SR]LRPLH RUD] SRSUDZ\ HIHNW\ZQRĞFL HQHUJHW\F]QHM R > @ > @ 3DNLHW WHQ E\á RG SRF]ąWNX NRQVWUXRZDQ\ MDNR LQVWUX PHQW MHGQRF]HĞQLH NOLPDW\F]Q\ HQHUJHW\F]Q\ L JRVSRGDUF]\ 0LDá ]PQLHMV]Dü HPLVMH Z]PDFQLDü EH]SLHF]HĔVWZR GRVWDZ RUD] SREXG]Dü UR]ZyM QRZ\FK WHFKQRORJLL QD NWyU\P PLDáD NRU]\VWDü JRVSRGDUND 8( 1D WHM ED]LH XNV]WDáWRZDá VLĊ ZVSyáF]HVQ\ SDUDG\JPDW XQLMQHM WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM Z NWyU\P SROLW\ND NOLPDW\F]QD L SROLW\ND SU]HP\VáRZD L JRVSRGDUF]D Vą ĞFLĞOH VSOHFLRQH 0RĪQD Z\UyĪQLü F]WHU\ JáyZQH RVLH WHM VWUDWHJLL > @ > @ SU]\VSLHV]RQH SU]HFKRG]HQLH QD RGQDZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL L SRSUDZD HIHNW\Z QRĞFL HQHUJHW\F]QHM WR SRGVWDZRZH QDU]ĊG]LH UHGXNFML HPLVML RUD] VSRVyE RJUD QLF]HQLD ]DSRWU]HERZDQLD QD LPSRUW SDOLZ NRSDOQ\FK EXGRZD SR]\FML OLGHUD Z SURGXNFML WHFKQRORJLL QLVNRHPLV\MQ\FK ௅ RG WXUELQ ZLDWURZ\FK L SDQHOL IRWRZROWDLF]Q\FK SR EDWHULH SRPS\ FLHSáD LQIUDVWUXNWXUĊ VLHFLRZą L HZ WHFKQRORJLH ZRGRURZH ± PD VWDQRZLü QRZ\ ¿ODU NRQNXUHQF\M QRĞFL SU]HP\VáRZHM NV]WDáWRZDQLH JOREDOQ\FK VWDQGDUGyZ UHJXODF\MQ\FK Z WDNL VSRVyE DE\ XF]HVW QLF\ ĞZLDWRZHJR U\QNX FKFąF XWU]\PDü GRVWĊS GR U\QNX XQLMQHJR GRVWRVRZ\ ZDOL VLĊ GR HXURSHMVNLFK QRUP ĞURGRZLVNRZ\FK L NOLPDW\F]Q\FK WHQ PHFKD QL]P RSLVXMH VLĊ MDNR ZáDG]Ċ QRUPDW\ZQą 8QLL RUD] ÄHIHNW EUXNVHOVNL´ W]Q SU]HQLNDQLH XQLMQ\FK UHJXODFML GR áDGX JOREDOQHJR SU]H] VDPą VNDOĊ L DWUDNF\M QRĞü ZVSyOQHJR U\QNX

1. PROCESY TRANSFORMACJI

25

RJUDQLF]DQLH VWUXNWXUDOQHM ]DOHĪQRĞFL RG LPSRUWX VXURZFyZ HQHUJHW\F]Q\FK SRSU]H] ]DVWĊSRZDQLH SDOLZ NRSDOQ\FK HQHUJLą HOHNWU\F]Qą Z\WZDU]DQą Z GX Ī\P VWRSQLX ] 2=( RUD] SRSU]H] G\ZHUV\¿NDFMĊ NLHUXQNyZ GRVWDZ VXURZFyZ Z RNUHVLH SU]HMĞFLRZ\P : W\P SDUDG\JPDFLH FHOH NOLPDW\F]QH L FHOH EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR E\á\ ]H VREą SRZLą]DQH FKRü QLH ]DZV]H Z VSRVyE SHáQ\ L VSyMQ\ = MHGQHM VWURQ\ VWUD WHJLD GHNDUERQL]DFML L UR]ZRMX 2=( REQLĪD ]DSRWU]HERZDQLH QD LPSRUW URS\ JD]X L ZĊ JOD Z GáXJLP RNUHVLH RUD] ]PQLHMV]D ZSá\Z ZDKDĔ FHQ SDOLZ QD JRVSRGDUNĊ = GUXJLHM VWURQ\ SUDNW\ND SROLW\F]QD F]ĊĞFL SDĔVWZ F]áRQNRZVNLFK WDNLFK MDN UR]EXGRZD EH] SRĞUHGQLFK SRáąF]HĔ JD]RZ\FK ] 5RVMą SURZDG]LáD GR RNUHVRZHJR Z]URVWX ]DOHĪQRĞFL RG SRMHG\QF]HJR GRVWDZF\ FR VWDáR Z VSU]HF]QRĞFL ] ORJLNą G\ZHUV\¿NDFML L XQLH]DOHĪ QLDQLD VLĊ RG LPSRUWX 1LH GRVWU]HJDQR UyZQLHĪ ĪH EDUG]R LQWHQV\ZQD UHGXNFMD HPLVML Z HOHNWURHQHUJHW\FH L PDVRZ\ Z]URVW XG]LDáX 2=( EĊG]LH ZSURZDG]Dü GRGDWNRZH U\]\NR ]ZLą]DQH ]H VWDELOQRĞFLą GRVWDZ HQHUJLL L SURZDG]HQLHP UXFKX V\VWHPX .ROHMQ\P HWDSHP E\áD LQWHJUDFMD SROLW\NL NOLPDW\F]QR HQHUJHW\F]QHM ] RJyOQą VWUDWHJLą Z]URVWX JRVSRGDUF]HJR .RPXQLNDW .RPLVML (XURSHMVNLHM Z VSUDZLH (XUR SHMVNLHJR =LHORQHJR àDGX ] U GH¿QLXMH JR MDNR QRZą VWUDWHJLĊ Z]URVWX 8QLL NWyUHM FHOHP MHVW SU]HNV]WDáFHQLH JRVSRGDUNL Z NLHUXQNX QHXWUDOQRĞFL NOLPDW\F]QHM SU]\ UyZQRF]HVQ\P XWU]\PDQLX NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFL L WZRU]HQLX PLHMVF SUDF\ > @ &HOH NOLPDW\F]QH PLDá\ VWDü VLĊ SRGVWDZą PRGHUQL]DFML VWUXNWXUDOQHM 3RSU]H] UHJXODFMH ĞURGRZLVNRZH L V\VWHP FHQ HPLVML 8( VWDUD VLĊ Z\JHQHURZDü LPSXOV LQ QRZDF\MQ\ Z SU]HP\ĞOH ]JRGQ\ ] KLSRWH]ą 3RUWHUD ZHGáXJ NWyUHM GREU]H ]DSURMHN WRZDQH UHJXODFMH ĞURGRZLVNRZH PRJą SREXG]Dü LQQRZDFMH L Z GáXJLP KRU\]RQFLH Z]PDFQLDü NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞü SRGPLRWyZ REMĊW\FK W\PL UHJXODFMDPL > @ :LGRF]QD MHVW WHĪ LQWHUSUHWDFMD (XURSHMVNLHJR =LHORQHJR àDGX MDNR VWUDWHJLL JHRHNRQRPLF]QHM NWyUD PD UyZQRF]HĞQLH RJUDQLF]Dü ]DOHĪQRĞü RG SDOLZ NRSDOQ\FK Z]PDFQLDü SR]\FMĊ SU]HP\VáX ]LHORQ\FK WHFKQRORJLL L XWUZDODü UROĊ 8( MDNR GRVWDZF\ JOREDOQ\FK VWDQ GDUGyZ UHJXODF\MQ\FK Chiny

5yZQROHJOH UR]ZLMDá\ VLĊ LQQH SDUDG\JPDW\ WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM V]F]HJyOQLH Z &KLQDFK L Z 6WDQDFK =MHGQRF]RQ\FK &KLQ\ RG NRĔFD ODW ;; Z SURZDG]Lá\ SROLW\NĊ V]\ENLHJR Z]URVWX JRVSRGDUF]HJR Z RJURPQ\P VWRSQLX RSDUWHJR QD ZĊ JOX L HQHUJRFKáRQQ\FK JDáĊ]LDFK SU]HP\VáX $QDOL]\ FKLĔVNLHM SROLW\NL HQHUJHW\F]QHM ZVND]XMą ĪH JáyZQą VLáą QDSĊGRZą Z]URVWX ]XĪ\FLD HQHUJLL E\áD HNVSDQVMD SURGXNFML SU]HP\VáRZHM SU]\ F]\P Z SRF]ąWNRZHM ID]LH UHGXNFMD HPLVML QLH PRĪH E\ü WUDNWR ZDQD MDNR SULRU\WHW NRV]WHP UR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUF]HJR > @ > @ : NROHMQ\FK SODQDFK SLĊFLROHWQLFK ]DF]ĊWR MHGQDN ZSLV\ZDü FHOH RJUDQLF]DQLD HQHUJRFKáRQQRĞFL JRVSR GDUNL UR]ZRMX HIHNW\ZQRĞFL HQHUJHW\F]QHM L ]ZLĊNV]DQLD XG]LDáX 2=( 1D VNXWHN V]\ENLHJR UR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUF]HJR L Z]URVWX ]DSRWU]HERZDQLD QD HQHUJLĊ &KLQ\ NR U]\VWDMą ]H ZV]\VWNLFK PRĪOLZ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL L VWDá\ VLĊ QDMZLĊNV]\P LQZHVWRUHP Z RGQDZLDOQH ĨUyGáD HQHUJLL QD ĞZLHFLH RUD] ĞZLDWRZ\P OLGHUHP SRG Z]JOĊGHP ]D LQVWDORZDQHM PRF\ ZLDWURZHM L IRWRZROWDLF]QHM U\V D WDNĪH MHGQ\P ] JáyZQ\FK

26

A. UWARUNKOWANIE TRANSFORMACJI

SURGXFHQWyZ XU]ąG]HĔ L NRPSRQHQWyZ GR W\FK WHFKQRORJLL Z W\P EDWHULL L HOHPHQWyZ áDĔFXFKyZ GRVWDZ SRMD]GyZ HOHNWU\F]Q\FK ,VWRWQ\P HOHPHQWHP MHVW UR]ZyM U\QNX ZHZQĊWU]QHJR SRSU]H] NUHRZDQLH SRS\WX L X]\VNDQLH QD W\P U\QNX GRĞZLDGF]HĔ SU]H] HNVSDQVMĊ QD U\QNL ]DJUDQLF]QH > @ > @ Moc zainstalowana w OZE w Europie, USA i Chinach [MW] 2000 1 814 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 703

800 600 400

428 200 0

Chiny

Stany Zjednoczone

Unia Europejska

RYS. 1.1. Moc zainstalowana w źródłach odnawialnych (wiatrowych oraz fotowoltaicznych) w Europie, USA i Chinach. Źródło: opracowanie własne na podstawie [22], [23]

: FKLĔVNLP SDUDG\JPDFLH WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM Z\UDĨQH Vą WU]\ SRZLą ]DQH PRW\ZDFMH 3RSUDZD EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR SU]H] RJUDQLF]DQLH ]DOHĪ QRĞFL RG LPSRUWX SDOLZ L G\ZHUV\¿NDFMĊ PLNVX UHGXNFMD ORNDOQ\FK ]DQLHF]\V]F]HĔ SRZLHWU]D RUD] EXGRZD SU]HZDJ NRQNXUHQF\MQ\FK Z VHNWRUDFK WHFKQRORJLL QLVNRHPL V\MQ\FK 0RĪOLZH ĪH WR RVWDWQLH MHVW QDMZDĪQLHMV]\P SDUDG\JPDWHP FKRü QDOHĪ\ SU]\]QDü ĪH &KLQ\ PLHU]ą VLĊ ] RJURPQ\P ]DQLHF]\V]F]HQLHP SRZLHWU]D V]F]HJyOQLH Z PLDVWDFK 5HGXNFMD VSDOLQ L S\áyZ MHVW GOD QLFK QDPDFDOQ\P FHOHP 7UDQVIRUPD FMD MHVW SU]\ W\P VLOQLH SRZLą]DQD ] SROLW\Ną SU]HP\VáRZą L LQZHVW\F\MQą &KLĔVNLH ZáDG]H NLHUXQNRZR Z\]QDF]DMą SULRU\WHWRZH WHFKQRORJLH L VHNWRU\ ]DSHZQLDMą LQVWUX PHQW\ ¿QDQVRZH L UHJXODF\MQH FR QDVWĊSQLH NRU]\VWDMąF ] HIHNWX VNDOL SURZDG]L GR VSDGNX NRV]WyZ W\FK WHFKQRORJLL Z XMĊFLX JOREDOQ\P > @ = SXQNWX ZLG]HQLD SDUDG\JPDWX WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM MHVW WR PRGHO UR] ZRMRZR SU]HP\VáRZ\ Z NWyU\P FHOH NOLPDW\F]QH Vą VWRSQLRZR Z]PDFQLDQH DOH RG SRF]ąWNX SR]RVWDMą ĞFLĞOH ]ZLą]DQH ] DPELFMą WHFKQRORJLF]QHJR DZDQVX L HNVSDQVML HNVSRUWRZHM :DUWR WX ]DXZDĪ\ü ĪH SLHUZRWQH NRQFHSFMH DE\ NRU]\VWDMąF ] FHOyZ NOLPDW\F]Q\FK Z]PDFQLDü VZRMą JRVSRGDUNĊ Vą VSyMQH GOD (XURS\ L &KLQ MHGQDN UyĪ QL MH VSRVyE Z\NRQDQLD 'RVWĊSQH GDQH ZVND]XMą ĪH PLPR QDMZ\ĪV]HJR QD ĞZLHFLH SR]LRPX DPELFML NOLPDW\F]Q\FK SR VWURQLH 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM WR &KLQ\ SU]HFKZ\WXMą

1. PROCESY TRANSFORMACJI

27

REHFQLH QDMZLĊNV]ą F]ĊĞü ZDUWRĞFL GRGDQHM ]ZLą]DQHM ] UR]ZRMHP WHFKQRORJLL QLVNR HPLV\MQ\FK > @ > @ &KLQ\ SRVLDGDMą SRQDG JOREDOQ\FK PRF\ SURGXNF\MQ\FK Z ĨUyGáDFK 39 L FR QDMPQLHM PRF\ Z ZLĊNV]RĞFL PDVRZR Z\WZDU]DQ\FK WHFKQR ORJLDFK F]\VWHM HQHUJLL SRGF]DV JG\ 8( Z GXĪHM PLHU]H LPSRUWXMH PRGXá\ 39 EDWHULH L NRPSRQHQW\ ] &KLQ D RN ZV]\VWNLFK PLHMVF SUDF\ Z 2=( QD ĞZLHFLH SU]\SDGD ZáDĞQLH QD &KLQ\ SU]\ RN POQ PLHMVF SUDF\ Z FDáHM 8QLL > @ > @ Stany Zjednoczone Ameryki Północnej

6WDQ\ =MHGQRF]RQH UHSUH]HQWXMą RGPLHQQ\ PRGHO Z ZLĊNV]\P VWRSQLX RSDUW\ QD ]D VREDFK L U\QNX .UDM G\VSRQXMH ]QDF]ąF\PL ZáDVQ\PL ]DVREDPL URS\ JD]X L ZĊJOD D W]Z UHZROXFMD áXSNRZD RG SRF]ąWNX ;;, Z UDG\NDOQLH ]ZLĊNV]\áD NUDMRZą SURGXN FMĊ JD]X ]LHPQHJR L URS\ F]\QLąF ] 86$ MHGQHJR ] JáyZQ\FK ĞZLDWRZ\FK HNVSRUWH UyZ QRĞQLNyZ HQHUJLL -XĪ QD SRF]ąWNX ODW 6WDQ\ =MHGQRF]RQH VWDá\ VLĊ QDMZLĊN V]\P SURGXFHQWHP JD]X ]LHPQHJR D SyĨQLHM XWUZDOLá\ SR]\FMĊ MHGQHJR ] F]RáRZ\FK SURGXFHQWyZ URS\ QDIWRZHM > @ 7R ]PQLHMV]\áR LFK ZUDĪOLZRĞü QD V]RNL SRGDĪRZH QD JOREDOQ\P U\QNX SDOLZ L RJUDQLF]\áR SUHVMĊ QD SU]\VSLHV]RQą GHNDUERQL]DFMĊ ] SR ZRGyZ EH]SLHF]HĔVWZD HQHUJHW\F]QHJR : Z\PLDU]H PLĊG]\QDURGRZ\P PRGHO DPHU\NDĔVNL FKDUDNWHU\]XMH VLĊ EDU G]LHM ]PLHQQ\P SRGHMĞFLHP GR JOREDOQ\FK SRUR]XPLHĔ NOLPDW\F]Q\FK 6WDQ\ =MHG QRF]RQH QLH UDW\¿NRZDá\ SURWRNRáX ] .LRWR PLPR ĪH E\á\ NOXF]RZ\P XF]HVWQLNLHP QHJRFMDFML SRZRáXMąF VLĊ PLĊG]\ LQQ\PL QD REDZ\ GRW\F]ąFH NRV]WyZ GOD JRVSR GDUNL L DV\PHWULL ]RERZLą]DĔ PLĊG]\ SDĔVWZDPL XSU]HP\VáRZLRQ\PL D UR]ZLMDMą F\PL VLĊ > @ : SU]\SDGNX 3RUR]XPLHQLD SDU\VNLHJR SU]\MĊWHJR Z U 6WDQ\ =MHGQRF]RQH SU]\VWąSLá\ GR SRUR]XPLHQLD QDVWĊSQLH IRUPDOQLH UR]SRF]Ċá\ SURFHGXUĊ Z\MĞFLD D SyĨQLHM SRZUyFLá\ GR QLHJR FR LOXVWUXMH ZHZQĊWU]Qą ]PLHQQRĞü SROLW\F]Qą Z REV]DU]H NOLPDWX = SHUVSHNW\Z\ WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM R]QDF]D WR PQLHMV]\ QDFLVN QD ZLHOROHWQLH ]RERZLą]DQLD UHGXNF\MQH D ZLĊNV]ą UROĊ G\QDPLNL U\QNRZHM RUD] SROLW\NL QD SR]LRPLH VWDQRZ\P 1LH R]QDF]D WR EUDNX WUDQVIRUPDFML HQHUJHW\F]QHM Z 86$ : ZLHOX VWDQDFK QD VWĊSXMH UR]EXGRZD 2=( L PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL SU]\ F]\P JáyZQ\P F]\QQLNLHP MHVW UHODFMD NRV]WyZ PLĊG]\ WHFKQRORJLDPL D QLH MHGQROLWD RJyOQRNUDMRZD SROLW\ND NOL PDW\F]QD 'REU\P SU]\NáDGHP MHVW 7HNVDV NWyU\ SR]RVWDMH ]QDF]ąF\P SURGXFHQWHP URS\ L JD]X D UyZQRF]HĞQLH VWDá VLĊ OLGHUHP Z ]DNUHVLH PRF\ ZLDWURZ\FK V]\ENR SR ZLĊNV]D PRFH IRWRZROWDLF]QH L UR]ZLMD U\QHN EDWHU\MQ\FK PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL 'DQH ] RVWDWQLFK ODW ZVND]XMą ĪH 7HNVDV MHVW QDMV]\EFLHM URVQąF\P U\QNLHP PDJD]\QRZD QLD HQHUJLL Z 86$ RUD] MHGQ\P ] JáyZQ\FK RĞURGNyZ UR]ZRMX 2=( ] GXĪ\P SU]\ URVWHP PRF\ ZLDWUX VáRĔFD L EDWHULL Z EDUG]R NUyWNLP F]DVLH > @ 5R]ZyM W\FK WHFK QRORJLL Z\QLND Z GXĪHM PLHU]H ] NRQVWUXNFML U\QNX HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM GRVWĊSQRĞFL ]DVREyZ QDWXUDOQ\FK ZLDWU QDVáRQHF]QLHQLH RUD] VSDGDMąF\FK NRV]WyZ WHFKQRORJLL ,VWRWQ\P HOHPHQWHP MHVW QLVNLH ]DOXGQLHQLH Z V]F]HJyOQRĞFL F]ĊĞFL ]DFKRGQLHM FR SR ]ZDOD XQLNQąü NRQÀLNWX ] ORNDOQ\PL VSRáHF]QRĞFLDPL 7UDQVIRUPDFMD SU]HELHJD ZLĊF Z VSRVyE EDUG]LHM UR]SURV]RQ\ L VHOHNW\ZQ\ RJUDQLF]DMąF VNDOĊ QDSLĊü VSRáHF]Q\FK L JRVSRGDUF]\FK ]ZLą]DQ\FK ] UHJXODF\MQ\P Z\PXV]DQLHP ]PLDQ DOH MHGQRF]HĞQLH SR]RVWDZLDMąF ZLĊNV]ą QLHSHZQRĞü FR GR GáXJRWHUPLQRZHM WUDMHNWRULL UHGXNFML HPLVML

104

B. ASPEKTY TECHNICZNE

3RPLPR ZLHOROHWQLFK EDGDĔ WHFKQRORJLD WD ZFLąĪ MHVW Z ID]LH ODERUDWRU\MQHM L SRMHG\QF]\FK LQVWDODFML GR WHVWyZ SRORZ\FK

5.2. Kategorie magazynów energii ,VWQLHMH SLĊü JáyZQ\FK URG]DMyZ PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL NODV\¿NRZDQ\FK ]H Z]JOĊGX QD SURFHV PDJD]\QRZDQLD ± WDEHOD TABELA 5.1. Kategorie magazynów energii [91]

*ĊVWRĞü HQHUJLL N:K P3

.DWHJRULD

7HFKQRORJLD

0HFKDQLF]QH

HQHUJLD SRWHQFMDOQD ± HOHNWURZQLH V]F]\WRZR SRPSRZH HQHUJLD NLQHW\F]QD ௅ ZLUXMąFH NRáR À\ZKHHO

SROH HOHNWURVWDW\F]QH NRQGHQVDWRU\

SROH HOHNWURPDJQHW\F]QH FHZNL

RáRZLRZR NZDVRZH

OLWRZR MRQRZH

PDJD]\QRZDQLH Z ZRG]LH

PDJD]\QRZDQLH Z SDU]H

PDJD]\Q\ ZRGRUX

PDJD]\Q\ SDOLZ

(OHNWU\F]QH

(OHNWURFKHPLF]QH

&LHSOQH

&KHPLF]QH

:ĞUyG PDJD]\QyZ FKHPLF]Q\FK QDMF]ĊĞFLHM VSRW\ND VLĊ EDWHULH OLWRZR MRQRZH SRZV]HFKQLH VWRVRZDQH Z XU]ąG]HQLDFK HOHNWURQLF]Q\FK MDN UyZQLHĪ Z HQHUJHW\FH JG]LH VWRVXMH VLĊ F]DVHP EDWHULH RáRZLRZR NZDVRZH ]H Z]JOĊGX QD LFK QLĪV]ą FHQĊ 7H GZLH NDWHJRULH PDJD]\QyZ ]QDMGXMą UyZQLHĪ ]DVWRVRZDQLD Z PRWRU\]DFML %DWH ULH OLWRZR MRQRZH RUD] EDWHULH RáRZLRZR NZDVRZH Z\NRU]\VW\ZDQH Vą GR UR]UXFKX VLOQLNyZ VSDOLQRZ\FK *áyZQH SDUDPHWU\ PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL SRGDQH Vą Z WDEHOL RUD] WDEHOL 6SRĞUyG PHFKDQLF]Q\FK PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL QDMZLĊNV]H ]DVWRVRZDQLH PDMą HOHNWURZQLH V]F]\WRZR SRPSRZH (63 3R]ZDODMą RQH QD JURPDG]HQLH ]QDF]Q\FK LORĞFL HQHUJLL QD RNUHV\ NLONX GQLX F]\ QDZHW W\JRGQL 0RĪOLZRĞFL EXGRZ\ (63 ]DOHĪą RG XNV]WDáWRZDQLD WHUHQX 1LHNWyUH NUDMH WDNLH MDN 1RUZHJLD $XVWULD F]\ 6]ZDMFDULD PDMą QDWXUDOQH PRĪOLZRĞFL EXGRZ\ (63 : 3ROVFH ]H Z]JOĊGX QD XNV]WDáWRZDQLH WHUHQX PRĪOLZRĞFL EXGRZ\ (63 Vą QLHZLHONLH

105

5. MAGAZYNY ENERGII TABELA 5.2. Główne parametry magazynów chemicznych [144]

3DUDPHWU\

%L]PXWRZR F\QNRZH

/LWRZR MRQRZH

2áRZLRZR NZDVRZH

6RGRZR VLDUNRZH

6SUDZQRĞü

௅

௅

௅

௅

*ĊVWRĞü HQHUJLL

௅ :K O

௅ :K O

௅ :K O

௅ :K O

,ORĞü áDGRZDĔ

SRQDG

௅

௅

௅

*áĊERNRĞü UR]áDGRZDQLD

&]DV XUXFKRPLHQLD

VHNXQG\

௅ PV

௅ PV

௅ PV

TABELA 5.3. Parametry magazynów mechanicznych [144]

3DUDPHWU\

6]F]\WRZR SRPSRZH

6NRPSUHVRZDQH SRZLHWU]H

)O\ZKHHOV

6SUDZQRĞü

௅

௅

௅

&]DV Ī\FLD

௅ ODW

ODW

ODW

&]DV XUXFKRPLHQLD

௅ PLQXW\

௅ PLQXW

PV

5.3. Wykorzystanie magazynów w systemie elektroenergetycznym 0DJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL PRJą G]LDáDü Z V\VWHPLH HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P QD WU]HFK JáyZ Q\FK SR]LRPDFK QDSLĊFLRZ\FK Z V\VWHPLH SU]HV\áRZ\P QDMZ\ĪV]\FK QDSLĊü L N9 Z V\VWHPLH UR]G]LHOF]\P QD SR]LRPLH N9 N9 L N9 RUD] Z V\V WHPLH QDMQLĪV]\FK QDSLĊü 9 Z V]F]HJyOQRĞFL Z LQVWDODFMDFK SURVXPHQF NLFK ± U\V 0DJD]\Q HQHUJLL Z\VRNLHJR QDSLĊFLD PRĪH G]LDáDü MDNR LQVWDODFMD ĞZLDGF]ąFD XVáXJL UHJXODF\MQH EH]SRĞUHGQLR GOD 2SHUDWRUD 6\VWHPX 3U]HV\áRZHJR OXE '\VWU\EXF\MQHJR 7DNL SU]\SDGHN QD]\ZDQ\ MHVW ÄSU]HG OLF]QLNLHP´ 1D]ZD WD RG]ZLHUFLHGOD GRVWĊS 263 GR PDJD]\QX HQHUJLL L PRĪOLZRĞü MHJR SHáQHM NRQWUROL 0DJD]\Q HQHUJLL NWyU\ MHVW ]ZLą]DQ\ ] LQVWDODFMą 2=( QD SU]\NáDG IDUPą ZLD WURZą PRĪH WHĪ G]LDáDü QD SR]LRPLH ĞUHGQLHJR QDSLĊFLD 7DND LQVWDODFMD MHVW QD]\ZDQD Ä]D OLF]QLNLHP´ SRQLHZDĪ RSHUDWRU VLHFL QLH PD EH]SRĞUHGQLHJR GRVWĊSX GR PDJD]\QX HQHUJLL DOH PRĪH PLHU]\ü FDáNRZLW\ SUR¿O PRF\ MDNR NRPELQDFMĊ SURGXNFML HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM ] ZLDWUX L MHM PDJD]\QRZDQLD 2SHUDWRU IDUP\ ZLDWURZHM GHF\GXMH R W\P MDND LORĞü HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM MHVW ZSURZDG]DQD EH]SRĞUHGQLR GR VLHFL HOHNWU\F]QHM L MDND F]ĊĞü WHM HQHUJLL PRĪH E\ü SU]HND]\ZDQD GR PDJD]\QX HQHUJLL OXE ] QLHJR SR ELHUDQD 3RGREQą UROĊ PRJą SHáQLü PDJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL Z ]DNáDGDFK SU]HP\VáRZ\FK JG]LH ]PDJD]\QRZDQD HQHUJLD HOHNWU\F]QD PRĪH VáXĪ\ü GR ]PQLHMV]HQLD PDNV\PDO QHJR SRERUX WHM HQHUJLL V]F]\W ]DSRWU]HERZDQLD D W\P VDP\ ]PQLHMV]\ü PRF ]DPy ZLRQą L ]ZLą]DQH ] W\P NRV]W\

150

C. ASPEKTY EKONOMICZNE

&HFKą NRV]WyZ V\VWHPRZ\FK MHVW WR ĪH ]DOHĪą RQH RG ZLHONRĞFL JHQHUDFML 2=( ZSURZDG]DQHM GR V\VWHPX HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHJR 3U]\ QLHZLHONLFK PRFDFK RGQD ZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL D FR ]DWHP LG]LH VWRVXQNRZR QLHZLHONLFK PRĪOLZRĞFLDFK ZSURZDG]DQLD HQHUJLL HOHNWU\F]QHM GR V\VWHPX RGG]LDá\ZDQLH 2=( QD SUDFĊ V\VWH PX HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]QHJR MHVW VWRVXQNRZR QLHZLHONLH 1LH PD SRWU]HE\ ]DSHZQLDQLD VSHFMDOQ\FK UH]HUZ PRF\ GOD 2=( L SRWU]HE\ WZRU]HQLD 5\QNX 0RF\ RUD] SRQRV]HQLD MHJR NRV]WyZ :]URVW PRF\ ]DLQVWDORZDQ\FK 2=( VSRZRGRZDá NRQLHF]QRĞü ZSURZD G]HQLH 5\QNX 0RF\ Z 3ROVFH L ZyZF]DV ]RVWDáD ZSURZDG]RQD XVWDZD XVWDQDZLDMąFD WHQ U\QHN Z U D SLHUZV]D DXNFMD RGE\áD VLĊ Z URNX 3RGREQLH MDN Z SU]\SDGNX 5\QNX 0RF\ SU]\ QLHZLHONLFK LORĞFLDFK ĨUyGHá RG QDZLDOQ\FK QLH E\áR SRWU]HE\ ]DSHZQLDQLD VSHFMDOQHJR VSRVREX ELODQVRZDQLD SUR¿OX SURGXNFML 2=( QD SU]\NáDG SRSU]H] PDJD]\Q\ HQHUJLL D NRV]W\ UHJXODFML PRF\ Z\ QLNDMąFH ]H ]PLHQQRĞFL ]DSRWU]HERZDQLD E\á\ SRNU\ZDQH SU]H] VNáDGQLN MDNRĞFLRZ\ RSáDW\ SU]HV\áRZHM 0RĪQD SU]\Mąü ] SHZQ\P SU]\EOLĪHQLHP ĪH XG]LDá RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL Z FDáNRZLW\P URF]Q\P ]DSRWU]HERZDQLX QD SR]LRPLH SRQLĪHM QLH Z\PDJD SRGHMPRZDQLD VSHFMDOQ\FK G]LDáDĔ L SRQRV]HQLD GRGDWNRZ\FK NRV]WyZ ± NRV]WyZ V\VWHPRZ\FK G]LDáDQLD 2=(

Koszty integracji OZE

Koszty (PLN/MWh)

<ŽƐnjƚLJ ƐLJƐƚĞŵŽǁĞ ĚnjŝĂųĂŶŝĂ ŽĚŶĂǁŝĂůŶLJĐŚ ǍƌſĚĞų

Koszty el. konwencjonalnych

Koszty instalacji OZE

Udzialy % OZE w zapotrzebowaniu 0 0

2,5

5

7,5

System LCOE

10

12,5 LCOE

15

17,5

20

22,5

25

27,5

30

Koszt konwencjonalnych

RYS. 8.2. Koszty instalacji i koszty systemowe OZE. Grafika własna na bazie [39]

3RUyZQDQLH NRV]WyZ ]G\VNRQWRZDQ\FK LQVWDODFML 2=( RUD] NRV]WyZ LQWHJUDFML ] V\VWHPHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P MHVW SRND]DQH QD U\V .RV]W\ LQVWDODFML 2=( Vą SRGREQH GR ZLHONRĞFL SRGDZDQ\FK Z UR]SRU]ąG]HQLX R FHQDFK UHIHUHQF\MQ\FK 0L QLVWUD .OLPDWX L ĝURGRZLVND $E\ MHGQDN LQVWDODFMD 2=( PRJáD SUDFRZDü NRQLHF]QD MHVW MHM LQWHJUDFMD ] V\VWHPHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P FR SRZRGXMH GRGDWNRZH NRV]W\ MDN SRND]DQR QD U\V : SXEOLNDFMDFK SRGDZDQH Vą ] UHJXá\ W\ONR NRV]W\ LQVWDODFML 2=( FR SRZRGXMH P\OQH RGF]\W\ZDQLH ĪH NRV]W\ RGQDZLDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá Vą QLVNLH

12. MAGAZYNY ENERGII W TRANSFORMACJI ENERGETYCZNEJ

241

12.6. Magazyny energii w Energy Mix 3UDFD PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL Z RNUHVLH ]LPRZ\P MHVW ]LOXVWURZDQD QD U\V 2EV]D U\ R]QDF]RQH MDNR Ä1DGPLDU JHQHUDFML 2=(´ R]QDF]DMą ZLHONRĞFL HQHUJLL NWyUD QLH PRĪH E\ü ]XĪ\WD SU]H] V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ Z WU\ELH RQOLQH L PRĪH E\ü W\O NR ]PDJD]\QRZDQD OXE SU]\PXVRZR Z\áąF]RQD 1DWRPLDVW REV]DU R]QDF]RQ\ MDNR Ä1LHGRPLDU 2=(´ SRND]XMH PRĪOLZą GR SU]\MĊFLD GRGDWNRZR ZLHONRĞü SURGXNFML HQHUJLL ]H ĨUyGHá RGQDZLDOQ\FK 3RQLHZDĪ QLH PD PRĪOLZRĞFL ]ZLĊNV]HQLD SURGXNFML HQHUJLL ] 2=( Z DQDOL]RZDQ\P RNUHVLH WR ZLHONRĞü WĊ Z ELODQVLH X]XSHáQLD ]ZLĊN V]RQD SURGXNFMD ] NRQZHQFMRQDOQ\FK ĨUyGHá HQHUJLL 2EV]DU R]QDF]RQ\ MDNR Ä1LHGR PLDU 2=(´ SRND]XMH ĪH JG\E\ ]DLVWQLDá\ PRĪOLZRĞFL ]ZLĊNV]HQLD SURGXNFML ] 2=( Z R]QDF]RQ\P SU]HG]LDOH F]DVRZ\P WR HQHUJLD WD JG\E\ ]RVWDáD Z\SURGXNRZDQD ]RVWDáDE\ ]XĪ\WNRZDQD SU]H] V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ Z WU\ELH RQOLQH Praca magazynu energii dla okresu zimowego 2030

15 000

Nadmiar generacji OZE

Stan magazynu ES 10 000

Moc (MW)

5 000

-

-5 000

-10 000

-15 000 Niedomiar OZE - ŵŽǏůŝǁŽƑđ njǁŝħŬƐnjĞŶŝĂ generacji z OZE -20 000 1

25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361 385 409 433 457 481 505 529 553 577 601 625 649 673 697

Czas w godzinach Nadmiar OZE

Niedomiar OZE

Stan ES

RYS. 12.1. Relacje godzinowe magazynu energii ES i nadmiaru oraz niedomiaru energii z OZE dla okresu zimowego w 2030 roku. Symulacje Energy Mix

àDGRZDQLH PDJD]\QyZ HQHUJLL PD PLHMVFH W\ONR Z F]DVLH NLHG\ VXPD JHQHUD FML Z V\VWHPLH HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\P MHVW WDN GXĪD ĪH QLHPRĪOLZH MHVW ]XĪ\FLH HQHUJLL ] 2=( RQOLQH L HQHUJLD WD XOHJDáDE\ SU]\PXVRZ\P Z\áąF]HQLRP 1DáDGRZDQ\ PDJD]\Q HQHUJLL ÄF]HND´ QD SU]HG]LDá F]DVRZ\ Z NWyU\P Z\VWąSL Ä1LHGRPLDU 2=(´ L SRMDZL VLĊ PRĪOLZRĞü ĪH HQHUJLD UR]áDGRZDQLD ]RVWDQLH ]XĪ\WD SU]H] V\VWHP HOHNWURHQHUJHW\F]Q\ àDGRZDQLH L UR]áDGRZDQLH PDJD]\QX PXV]ą RGE\ZDü VLĊ Z VSRVyE VSHáQLDMąF\ RJUDQLF]HQLD WHFKQLF]QH SUDF\ PDJD]\QyZ SRGDQH SU]H] ]DOHĪQRĞFL ௅