Institut Teknologi Bandung at TEKNOFEST 2021

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG at

TEKNOFEST 2021

Analysis of the seismic crisis as a precursor of the volcano eruption

[Approach]

Study case

2017 AGUNG VOLCANO ERUPTION Dr.rer.nat. David P. Sahara (PI), Prof. Andri D. Nugraha, Dr. Zulfakriza, Puput P. Rahsetyo Period : February – November 2020 Volcanic earthquakes occur as magma rises to the surface from depth, a condition that involves significant stress changes in the crust as the material migrates upward (White and McCausland, 2016). Therefore, during unrest volcanologists detect seismic signature variations in the type, location, and intensity of seismic activity. The interpretation of seismic signature during unrest may be supportive in assessing the eruption probability, as exemplified at various volcanoes, e.g., Pinatubo (1991), Unzen (1989–1995), Cotopaxi (2001), Popocatepetl (2001–2003), Mauna Loa (1984), Taal (2010), and others (Zobin, 2012; Zlotnicki et al., 2018). In general, however, it remains difficult for volcanologists to forecast an eruption precisely. This study intends to analyze the Volcano-Tectonic (VT) seismicity events as a possible indicator for forecasting eruptions.

This study provides an attempt to analyze the pre-eruptive seismicity events for volcano eruption forecasting.

After more than 50 years of slumber, Agong volcano on Ball Island erupted explosively, starting on November 21, 2017. sof The eruption was preceded by almost 2 months of significant increase of recorded seismicity, herein defined as seismic crisis. Our study provides the first analysis of VT events using data from eight local seismic stations deployed by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation of Indonesia (CVGHM) to monitor the Agung Volcano activity. In total, 2.726 Volcano-Tectonic (VT) events, with 13,023 P waves and 11,823 5 wave phases, were successfully identified between October 18 and November 30, 2017. We increased the accuracy of the hypocenter locations of these VT events using a double-difference (DD) relative relocation and a new velocity model appropriate to the subsurface geological conditions of Agung volcano, We found two types of seismicity during the recording period that represent the VT events relating to fracture network reactivation due to stress changes (during the seismic crisis) and magma intrusion (after the seismic crisis).

AGUNG VOLCANO Agung is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia and is located on the island of Bali. After more than 50 years of slumber, Agung Volcano erupted explosively on November 21, 2017 (PVMBG, 2017; Albino et al., 2019; Syahbana et al., 2019; Gunawan et al., 2020). The last major eruption happened in 1963; with a VEI 5, it was described as one of the largest eruptions in the twentieth century (Zen and Hadikusumo, 1964). It is suggested that the 1963 eruption affected global climate (Cadle et al., 1976; Hansen et al., 1978; Self et al., 1981; Rampino and Self, 1982; Self and Rampino, 2012). The eruption caused the tragic death of more than 1,000 people, mostly as a result of the high-speed pyroclastic flows on the volcano's southern and northern slopes, which swept over nearby settlements (Kusumadinata, 1964).

The 2017 eruption followed a “seismic crisis” that culminated in September 2017 when local earthquakes numbered more than 800 events per day (Albino et al., 2019; Syahbana et al., 2019; Gunawan et al., 2020). Due to the increasing seismicity, the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation of Indonesia (CVGHM) raised the volcanic alert level (VAL) to Level 2 on September 14, 2017, this then went to Level 3 on September 18, 2017, as seismicity continued to accelerate rapidly; the Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurements (RSAM) values peaked on September 22, 2017, prompting the CVGHM to elevate the VAL to Level 4 (the highest level). This crisis triggered the evacuation of over 140,000 people within an area of 9–12 km from the volcano's summit (Syahbana et al., 2019). Due to a decrease in daily seismic event rates, the CVGHM lowered the VAL to Level 3 on October 29, 2017.

So far, there is no published catalog of VT events preceding the Agung 2017 eruption obtained using the local seismic network.

Previous publications employed the regional Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) catalog in analyzing the magma migration beneath Agung Volcano, e.g., Syahbana et al. (2019) used catalog from BMKG as one of the inputs for their conceptual model, and later Gunawan et al. (2020) relocated the BMKG catalog using the double-difference method. In this study, for the first time, we processed the recorded waveform data of the local CVGHM seismic station network and estimated the hypocenter locations of VT events preceding the 2017 eruption. The identified VT event arrival times were manually picked. Hypocenter accuracy was improved using the updated velocity model, which is suitable for the subsurface condition of Agung, and by applying the double-difference relocation technique. A waveform crosscorrelation was also conducted to give a better constraint of the event locations. Our study produced a catalog of VT events preceding the 2017 Agung eruption that can be further used to improve the Agung conceptual model and reveal the magma migration processes that led to the eruption.

[Research Problem] It is worth noting that, although seismic unrest peaked in September, the volcano did not erupt until November 2017 (Syahbana et al., 2019). The eruption eventually started on November 21, 2017; a series of phreatomag matic explosions and high SO2 emissions continued. The most intense ex plosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred during the period of 25–29 November 2017.

The relatively long delay between the seismic swarm and the eruptions caused considerable challenges to CVGHM and the populace living near the volcano. During the crisis, the rate of VT events surrounding Agung volcano and RSAM were calculated using TMKS and PSAG seismic stations (Figure 1).

At the beginning of the crisis, only two seismic stations were available; therefore, an estimation of the location and source mechanisms of the seismic events could not be performed. The CVHM responded rapidly by installing more seismic stations. By October 18, 2017, another six stations had been successfully installed, forming a better seismic monitoring network around the volcano. Given the peculiar characteristics of the seismic patterns before the 2017 Agung eruption, localization of VT events prior to the 2017 eruption could help researchers better understand the magma migration process.

The characteristics of each event type are discussed In terms of Vp/Vs values, phase delay times, seismic cluster shapes, and waveform similarity. We interpret that the upward migrating magma reached a barrier (probably a stiff layer) which prohibited further ascent.

Consequently, thagma pressurized the zone above the magma chamber and beneath the barrier, reactivated the fracture cone between Agung and Batur volcanoes, and caused the seismic crisis since September 2017. In early November 2017. the barrier was finally Intruded, and magma and seismicity propagated toward the Agung summit. This reconstruction provides a better depth constraint as to the previous conceptual models and explains the long delay 1-10 weeks) between the onset of the seismic crisis and the eruption.

The distinction between the fracture reactivation and magma intrusion VT events observed in this study. Is significant for eruption forecasting and understanding the subsurface structure of the magmatic system. Based on the results obtained in this study, we emphasize the importance of prompt analysis (location and basic seismic characteristics of the selsmic crisis preceding the Agung eruption PUBLICATIONS 1. Sahara DP, Rahsetyo PP, Nugraha AD, Syahbana DK, Widiyantoro S, Zulfakriza Z, Ardianto A, Baskara AW, Rosalia S, Martanto M and Afif H (2021) Use of Local Seismic Network in Analysis of Volcano-Tectonic (VT) Events Preceding the 2017 Agung Volcano Eruption (Bali, Indonesia). Front. Earth Sci. 9:619801. doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.619801 (Q1-Scimago) 2. Ardianto A, Nugraha AD, Afif H, Syahbana DK, Sahara DP, Zulfakriza Z, Widiyantoro S, Priyono A, Rosalia S, Saepuloh A, Kasbani K, Muttaqy F, Rahsetyo PP, Priambodo IC and Martanto M (2021) Imaging the Subsurface Structure of Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia) Using Volcano-Tectonic (VT) Earthquake Tomography. Front. Earth Sci. 9:619587. doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.619587 3. Rahsetyo, P. P., Sahara, D. P., Nugraha, A. D., Zulfakriza, Z., Syahbana, D. K., Martanto, M., Afif, H., 2020, Hypocenter Determination of Volcano-Tectonic (VT) Earthquake around Agung Volcano in Period October-December 2017 Using a Non-Linear Location Method: A Preliminary Result, The 2nd South East Asian Cinference on Geophysics, held online, 03-05 November 2020.

4. Sahara, D. P., Rahsetyo, P. P., Nugraha, A. D., Zulfakriza, Z., Syahbana, D. K., Martanto, M., Afif, H., 2020, Source Mechanism of The Seismic Crisis Preceeding the 2017 Mt. Agung Explosive Eruption, American Geosciences Union 2020, held online, 1-17 December 2020 5. Sahara D.P., Widiyantoro, S., dkk. 2020. Geomecca : A Software For Magnitude Of Completeness And b-Value Estimation. Copyright registered at 19 Februari 2020

Acknowledgement This study was supported by the ITB Research 2019–2020 Program awarded to Dr.rer.nat. David P. Sahara. It was a collaboration between Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), the Geological Agency of Indonesia, and the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Development of

MISSILE FLIGHT GUIDANCE ALGORITHM Rianto Adhy Sasongko, S.T.,M.Sc. , Ph.D., Seno Sahisnu Rawikara, S.T., M.T., Wisnu Dewangga, S.T., Sayid Munthahar, S.T. Period : February – November 2020

Introduction During a mission, a cruise missile undergoes several phases from launch phase, cruise phase, and terminal phase. The flight guidance and control system play key role in enabling the missile to perform required maneuvers during each of those phases, and ensuring the accomplishment of the mission. In cruise phase, the guidance and control systems must be able to steer the missile to follow particular flight path (terrain following), and also to correct its trajectory if required, for example to avoid collision with other objects that may obstruct or intercept the reference flight path. During the cruise phase, before entering the engagement/terminal phase, the missile may also have to avoid some areas which are considered as a threat to the accomplishment to the mission, such as enemy countermeasure detection and defense system. And the end of the cruise phase, the missile need to be positioned so that it has most advantage in terms of the possibility to reach and hit the target, hence that position can be the starting point for the terminal phase.

Methodology In this research, a guidance approach is developed to provide a degree of freedom to the missile to correct its trajectory for avoiding any object that may obstruct its flight path, and also for avoiding any enemy element that can potentially threat the accomplishment of its mission.

There are 3 main components that are included in the proposed approach, namely the terrain following guidance, dynamic obstacle avoidance, and flight trajectory correction based on threat assessment analysis.

The terrain following and dynamic obstacle avoidance are implemented so that the missile can correct it trajectory due to any possible obstruction with any obstacle/object or any surface contour around its flight path. The approach are based on the information from missile detection system that sense any potential interfering object. The dynamic obstacle avoidance is developed based on ellipsoid geometry that is used for determining a restricted zone`that must be avoided by the missile.

The algorithm for correcting the trajectory based on threat assessment is proposed to give a capability to the flight guidance to modify/change the planned flight path based on information about any potential enemy element that may threat the missile mission, such as enemy detection and countermeasure systems.

Threat Assessment Based Guidance The Trajectory Correction algorithm based on threat assessment analysis is developed based on threat determination using probabilistic approach considering some “agents” that are involved in a mission. The developed approach uses Bayesian statistics as the foundation of its threat assessment process, along with Bayesian Game approach as the basic idea of its decision-making program.

The developed guidance system consist ing of a probabilistic threat assessment program and a utility-based preferences m o d e l i n g p ro g ra m . T h re a t a n d advantage function is constructed by considering the engagement geometry variables, such as Line of Sight angle, distance, and closing rate. An expected utility value is obtained by multiplying probabilities and utility amounts. The missile is set to adjust its controls in the way that corresponds to the highest expected utility value among the avail able expected utility values at any given stage, representing a best-response strategy. The guidance algorithm will generate maneuver reference in terms of roll angle (rate) and normal acceleration (load factor), that will bring the missile to the desired (target) point.

Simulation Analysis The algorithm then is implemented in a simulation case where the guidance system considers a stationary target as an agent that will generate the “advantage” measure, while an enemy detection and counter-measure system are agents that act as “threats”. The algorithm then execute threat assessment analysis, compute expected utility value, and determine the control/guidance reference that may provide the “best” advantage to the missile for accomplishing its mission.

Terrain Following & Dynamic Conflict Resolution

A reactive collision avoidance method is developed using ellipsoid geometry to determine the restricted zone and compute safe waypoint to avoid collision.

When an interfering object is detected, then an ellipsoid covering the object is defined. The algorithm then compute a contact point in the boundary of the ellipsoid that will be used as a reference for determining the avoiding flight direction. The ellipsoid, and also the contact point, are updated according to the movement of the object relative to

Publications : • Autonomous Conflict Resolution Algorithm Based on Elliptic Geometry, presented at 32nd International Council of The Aeronautical Science (ICAS) 2021, Shanghai, 6-10 September 2021 • Missile Threat Assessment System Using Naive Bayes Classifier Approach, presented at International Conference on Aerospace and Aviation ICASA 2020, Bandung, 25-26 November 2020 (The 6th International Conference of Science, Technology, and Interdisciplinary Research 2020 ) / IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering Volume 1173, 2021 • Dynamic Obstacle Avoidance System for Autonomous Air Vehicle, presented at International Conference on Aerospace and Aviation ICASA 2020, Bandung, 25-26 November 2020 (The 6th International Conference of Science, Technology, and Interdisciplinary Research 2020 ) / IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering Volume 1173, 2021 • Missile Guidance Based on Probabilistic Threat Determination Approach (journal paper, submitted)

Acknowledgement This research was funded by Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia, through Research, Community Service, and Innovation Program (P3MI), 2020

The Development of a Multi-Agent Mission Simulator for Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV)

Acknowledgement

System Architecture

National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), formerly Indonesian Ministry of Research and Higher Education (RISTEKDIKTI) through Higher Education Basic Research Grant

Ony Arifianto, Ph.D., Seno Sahisnu Rawikara, S.T., M.T., Imam Safi'i, S.T., M.T., M. Syafiq Romzi, S.T. Period : February 2020 – November 2021

Background Understanding how an Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) is operated in a mission, is essential for the design process. The understanding will lead to requirements that accurately guide the development of the vehicle, as well as the supporting systems, for the intended mission. Mission simulator is a tool specifically developed to aid this process.

The simulator needs to have some specific capabilities to serve its function.

Platform Design

Final Result

Aircraft Model (Modified MQ-9 Reaper)

Objective 1. Develop a mission simulator with the following capabilities: a. Mission scenario design b. Aircraft options c. Multiple aircraft, multiple Ground Control Stations (GCS) d. Mission scoring system

Scope 1. The simulated UCAV is of fixed-wing type only.

2. The maximum number of vehicles are limited to two.

3. X-Plane is used as the simulation engine and aircraft model building.

4. Mission Planner is used for autopilot simulation.

Methodology 1. Design the simulation platform using commercial off-the-shelf hardware 2. Develop the hardware and software architecture for the simulator 3. Develop several UCAV models in X-Plane 4. Develop a mission scoring system

Platform Manufacturing

Lightweight Structure Research Group Faculty of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Institut Teknologi Bandung Indonesia

BLASTWORTHY ADD-ON PROTECTION AND ANTI-MINE SEAT FOR OCCUPANT SURVIVABILITY AGAINST MINE BLAST

Subjected to Landmine Blast

Publications

Inventors: Sigit Puji Santosa* Arief Nur Pratomo Leonardo Gunawan Ichsan Setya Putra

Without Add-on Protection

With Add-on Protection Protection Strategy

*sigit.santossa@itb.ac.id

Blastworthy add-on protection

Publications Add-On Attachment

1. Arief N. Pratome, Sigit P Santosa, Leonardo G. Djarot Widagdo, Ichsan S. Putra, 2021 "Design Optimization and Structural Integrity Simulation of Aluminum Foam Sandwich Construction for Armored Vehicle Protection Composite Structures, Status: Published (01 Journal) 2. Arlet N. Pratomo, Sigit R Santosa, Leonardo G, Ichsan S. Putra, 2020 "Numerical Study and Experimental Validation of Blastworthy Structure using Aluminum Foam Sandwich Subjected to Pragmented kg TNT Blast Loading International Journal of Impact Engineering. Status: Published (01 Journal) 3. Arief N. Pratomo, Sigit Pt Santosa. Leonardo G.. ichsan 5. Putra, 2020 "Countermeasures design and analysis for occupant survivability of an armored vehicle subjected to blast loadJournal of Mechanical

V-Shaped add on attachment on ANOA 6x6

V-Shaped add on

Science and Technology, Status: Published (02 joumat)

ANOA 6x6

Validation Test

4. Arief N. Pratomo, Sigit P. Santosa, Leonardo G. Ichsan S. Putra, Titacipta Dirgantara, Djarot Widagdo, 2018 "Numerical Study of Experiment Setup for Aluminum Foam Sandwich Construction Subjected to last Load" MESIN, Status: Published

Patents 1. Desain industri: Pelindung Kendaraan (dan serangan ranjau untuk Anda 6x6), 2021. Granted: IDD0000057798 2. Paten: Alat Pelindung tambahan pada kendaraan Berpelindung dari Serangan Ranjau Menggunakan

Numerical Simulation

After Test Before Test

No crack or fracture at the floor plate

Kontruksi Kotak Baja Berongga yang Berisi Inti Busa Logam Patent Application Number: P00201804207 3. Paten: Kursi Anti ranjau Kendaraan tempur untuk Mengurangi Risiko Cedera Penumpang Akibat

Anti-Mine Seat

Ledakan Ranjau 2019.Patent Application Number: P00201909374

Simulation Results: Existing Design vs Modification Anti-mine seat

Safe & Comfort

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HAUG

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MODE OPERASI

Institut Teknologi Bandung

Wahana ini dapat beroperasi dua mode, yaitu mode AUV dan mode Glider. Mode AUV memiliki keunggulan kemampuan manuver yang lebih lincah, bergerak dengan menggunakan Thruster Natsir Habibullah sebagai pendorong dan kontrol permukaan berupa rudder dan elevator. Mode Glider memiliki Institut Teknologi Bandung keunggulan efisiensi energi dan jangkauan yang lebih luas, bergerak menggunakan Buoyancy Engine dan Moving Mass.

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Pada mode Glider, wahana bergerak turun (descent) ke dasar wahana dan naik (ascent) ke permukaan secara bergantian dengan mengatur gaya apung wahana menggunakan Buoyancy Engine. Ketika bergerak turun, sudut pitch wahana diatur ke bawah dan diatur ke atas ketika bergerak naik.

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LATAR BELAKANG Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan, memiliki daerah laut dengan potensi luar biasa. Dengan daerah laut yang luas, potensi ancaman terhadap bidang maritim dapat muncul setiap waktu baik terhadap masalah sumber daya alam ataupun teritorial kedaulatan negara. Salah satu cara untuk mencegah terjadinya ancaman-ancaman maritim tersebut adalah dengan melakukan sebuah sistem pengawasan dengan mengembangkan sebuah wahana bawah laut yang memiliki kemampuan mengawasi dalam jangka waktu yang cukup lama. Terdapat beberapa pilihan wahana yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan misi pengawasan tersebut. Salah satunya adalah Autonomous Underwater Glider (AUG)-Hybrid. AUG sendiri telah dikenal satu dekade sebagai wahana yang memiliki kemampuan jelajah dan waktu operasional yang efisien.

SPESIFIKASI

EKSPERIMEN SIMULASI DAN LAPANGAN

Gambar di atas merupakan hasil simulasi dari modifikasi algoritma Rapidlyexploring Random Trees Star (RRT*) dengan mempertimbangkan arus laut.

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#qPCR

2020

Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction Machine

Original DNA to replicate 5’

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