UChicago Urban Labs
Preventing dropout and youth violence: Lessons and observations from Chicago
7/6/17
Julia Quinn, Research Manager John Wolf, Senior Project Manager
Violence Worldwide In 2012, the United Nations Office of Drugs & Crime estimated that 437,000 people worldwide (6.2 per 100,000 pop.) died of intentional violent injuries. 1 – • • • • • •
Of these deaths: 4.7 per 100,000 pop. occurred in the United States.1 18.41 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Chicago.2 25.2 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Brazil.1 41.2 per 100,000 pop. occurred in El Salvador.1 3.5 per 100,000 pop. occurred in India.1 0.7 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Sweden.1
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2013) Intentional homicide, count and rate per 100,000 population (2000 2011) Federal Bureau of Investigation (2013) Crime in the United States 2012.
1 2
2
Disproportionate Effect on Youth Crime disproportionately affects youth, both in terms of crimes committed and as victims of violent crimes Percent of Crime Committed by Age Group, 2009 0.35
3500
0.3
3000
0.25
2500
0.2
2000
0.15
1500
0.1
1000
0.05
500
0
0
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Violent crime Property crime 3
Number of Homicides in the United States, 2007
Homicide, total Homicide, firearm
Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 1524)
HighIncome Countries
0.4
Whites
12.74
Latinos Blacks
10 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)
Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 1524)
15.0 Latinos
20 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)
Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 1524)
30 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)
Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 1524)
40 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)
Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 1524)
HighIncome Countries
Whites Latinos 53.2
50 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)
Blacks
Deaths P er 100,000 P eople
Mortality Rate by Cause of Death, 19502013 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950
1960 Infant Mortality (x10)
1970
1980 Heart Disease
1990
2000 Cerebrovascular
2005
2010 Homicide (x30)
2013
50%
Urban Labs partners with cities to identify and rigorously evaluate the policies and programs with the greatest potential to generate large scale social change across five key dimensions of urban life:
EDUCATION
11
HEALTH
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT
CRIME
POVERTY
WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:
IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges
12
TEST the most promising urban policies and programs
SCALE UP the most effective and costefficient policies and programs
WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:
IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges
13
TEST the most promising urban policies and programs
SCALE UP the most effective and costefficient policies and programs
INNOVATION CHALLENGE: A KEY MECHANISM FOR DISCOVERY
Policymakers, practitioners, and community members propose promising solutions to urban challenges
16
Urban Labs researchers and other experts review and select ideas
Urban Labs rigorously evaluates and helps scale the most cost efficient and effective programs and policies, in Chicago and across the globe
WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:
IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges
18
TEST the most promising urban policies and programs
SCALE UP the most effective and costefficient policies and programs
THE IMPORTANCE OF RESEARCH: MEASURING OUTCOMES
ELIGIBLE STUDENTS
RANDOMLY DIVIDED INTO TWO GROUPS, SIMILAR TO LOTTERY/COIN FLIP
BEHAVIOR CHANGE
19
POSTINTERVENTION, OUTCOMES ARE MEASURED FOR BOTH GROUPS
NO BEHAVIOR CHANGE
45%
Study 1: 200910
Becoming a Man (Youth Guidance) • 27 week, 1 hour / week, 1015 students / group
Too difficult and costly to improve academic outcomes?
For all a and b, 2 3 2 6a b – 3a b is equivalent to which of the expressions? If 3x – 10 = 24, then x = ?
8 + 14 – 7 7 x 4
2,718 9th and 10th graders randomly assigned to program vs. control
Gain in math scores by 30% of B-W gap (equal to 1 to 2 years of extra math learning, in 1 year) Closed 30% of the bw test score gap
1
Standardized Math Test Score
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.23 0.2
0
Blackwhite gap in math scores, US 13 year olds
50%
Study 2: 201315
Becoming a Man (Youth Guidance) • 2,064 male 9th and 10th graders, 9 CPS high schools
Now that it’s 2016… Study 1: 200910
Longterm followup data
18%
$
Cost
$$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ Benefit
“20 percent of our residents are criminals, they just need to be locked up. But the other 80 percent, I always tell them – if I could give them back just ten minutes of their lives, most of them wouldn’t be here.”
WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:
IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges
33
TEST the most promising urban policies and programs
SCALE UP the most effective and costefficient policies and programs
TYPICAL APPROACH TO SCALING IN SOCIAL SCIENCE
FIND OR DESIGN PROMISING PROGRAM
34
STUDY IT AT SMALL/MODERATE SCALE
DISSEMINATE FINDINGS
HOPE
“Nearly every problem has been solved by someone, somewhere...we can’t seem to replicate [those solutions] anywhere else.” - President Bill Clinton
HOW URBAN LABS THINKS ABOUT SCALING • It’s the inputs that matter • We should test impact at scale before going to scale • Identifying the specific recipe for scalability is key • Success depends on strong relationships with policymakers
It takes a city… Government and agency partners Nonprofit partners Access to data Funding
Implementing RCTs in schools… Partnering with schools Leveraging (or developing) an administrative data infrastructure Accessing data Fidelity to randomization
• No shortage of innovation it’s evidence that is in short supply Best projects are defined jointly by policymakers and researchers Effective social programs can have dramatic impact at scale 41
Geography and context are key, but sharing lessons with each other may help policymakers worldwide design effective and costeffective approaches to create safer cities.
Helping cities make smarter bets to improve human lives at scale 43