6 julia john lessons observations chicago

UChicago Urban Labs

Preventing dropout and youth violence: Lessons and observations from Chicago

7/6/17

Julia Quinn, Research Manager John Wolf, Senior Project Manager

Violence Worldwide In 2012, the United Nations Office of Drugs & Crime estimated that 437,000 people worldwide (6.2 per 100,000 pop.) died of intentional violent injuries. 1 – • • • • • •

Of these deaths: 4.7 per 100,000 pop. occurred in the United States.1 18.41 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Chicago.2 25.2 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Brazil.1 41.2 per 100,000 pop. occurred in El Salvador.1 3.5 per 100,000 pop. occurred in India.1 0.7 per 100,000 pop. occurred in Sweden.1

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2013) Intentional homicide, count and rate per 100,000 population (2000 ­ 2011) Federal Bureau of Investigation (2013) Crime in the United States 2012.

1 2

2

Disproportionate Effect on Youth Crime disproportionately affects youth, both in terms of crimes committed and as victims of violent crimes Percent of Crime Committed by Age Group, 2009 0.35

3500

0.3

3000

0.25

2500

0.2

2000

0.15

1500

0.1

1000

0.05

500

0

0

Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Violent crime Property crime 3

Number of Homicides in the United States, 2007

Homicide, total Homicide, firearm

Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 15­24)

High­Income Countries

0.4

Whites

12.74

Latinos Blacks

10 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)

Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 15­24)

15.0 Latinos

20 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)

Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 15­24)

30 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)

Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 15­24)

40 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)

Gun Homicide in the U.S.: Rates per 100,000 (males, ages 15­24)

High­Income Countries

Whites Latinos 53.2

50 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WISQARS, National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)

Blacks

Deaths P er 100,000 P eople

Mortality Rate by Cause of Death, 1950­2013 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950

1960 Infant Mortality (x10)

1970

1980 Heart Disease

1990

2000 Cerebrovascular

2005

2010 Homicide (x30)

2013

50%

Urban Labs partners with cities to identify and rigorously evaluate the policies and programs with the greatest potential to generate large­ scale social change across five key dimensions of urban life:

EDUCATION

11

HEALTH

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

CRIME

POVERTY

WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:

IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges

12

TEST the most promising urban policies and programs

SCALE UP the most effective and cost­efficient policies and programs

WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:

IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges

13

TEST the most promising urban policies and programs

SCALE UP the most effective and cost­efficient policies and programs

INNOVATION CHALLENGE: A KEY MECHANISM FOR DISCOVERY

Policymakers, practitioners, and community members propose promising solutions to urban challenges

16

Urban Labs researchers and other experts review and select ideas

Urban Labs rigorously evaluates and helps scale the most cost­ efficient and effective programs and policies, in Chicago and across the globe

WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:

IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges

18

TEST the most promising urban policies and programs

SCALE UP the most effective and cost­efficient policies and programs

THE IMPORTANCE OF RESEARCH: MEASURING OUTCOMES

ELIGIBLE STUDENTS

RANDOMLY DIVIDED INTO TWO GROUPS, SIMILAR TO LOTTERY/COIN FLIP

BEHAVIOR CHANGE

19

POST­INTERVENTION, OUTCOMES ARE MEASURED FOR BOTH GROUPS

NO BEHAVIOR CHANGE

­45%

Study 1: 2009­10

Becoming a Man (Youth Guidance) • 27 week, 1 hour / week, 10­15 students / group

Too difficult and costly to improve academic outcomes?

For all a and b, 2 3 2 6a b – 3a b is equivalent to which of the expressions?

If 3x – 10 = 24, then x = ?

8 + 14 – 7 7 x 4

2,718

9th and 10th graders randomly assigned to program vs. control

Gain in math scores by 30% of B-W gap (equal to 1 to 2 years of extra math learning, in 1 year) Closed 30% of the b­w test score gap

1

Standardized Math Test Score

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.23 0.2

0

Black­white gap in math scores, US 13 year olds

­50%

Study 2: 2013­15

Becoming a Man (Youth Guidance) • 2,064 male 9th and 10th graders, 9 CPS high schools

Now that it’s 2016…

Study 1: 2009­10

Long­term follow­up data

18%

$

Cost

$$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ Benefit

“20 percent of our residents are criminals, they just need to be locked up. But the other 80 percent, I always tell them – if I could give them back just ten minutes of their lives, most of them wouldn’t be here.”

WE WORK WITH CITIES TO:

IDENTIFY promising solutions to urban challenges

33

TEST the most promising urban policies and programs

SCALE UP the most effective and cost­efficient policies and programs

TYPICAL APPROACH TO SCALING IN SOCIAL SCIENCE

FIND OR DESIGN PROMISING PROGRAM

34

STUDY IT AT SMALL/MODERATE SCALE

DISSEMINATE FINDINGS

HOPE

“Nearly every problem has been solved by someone, somewhere...we can’t seem to replicate [those solutions] anywhere else.”

- President Bill Clinton

HOW URBAN LABS THINKS ABOUT SCALING • It’s the inputs that matter • We should test impact at scale before going to scale • Identifying the specific recipe for scalability is key • Success depends on strong relationships with policymakers

It takes a city… ­ Government and agency partners ­ Non­profit partners ­ Access to data ­ Funding

Implementing RCTs in schools… ­ Partnering with schools ­ Leveraging (or developing) an administrative data infrastructure ­ Accessing data ­ Fidelity to randomization

• No shortage of innovation  it’s evidence that is in short supply Best projects are defined jointly by policymakers and researchers Effective social programs can have dramatic impact at scale 41

Geography and context are key, but sharing lessons with each other may help policymakers worldwide design effective and cost­effective approaches to create safer cities.

Helping cities make smarter bets to improve human lives at scale 43